DAILY I FOREX REPORT 17th MAY 2013

WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO

+91 7316642300

HEADLINES

US Dollar Rally Unfazed by a Japan GDP Beat

Overnight Euro Libor at 0.024%, overnight Sterling Libor at 0.483%, according to BBA. Three Year Inflation Low Fails to Move Euro

TRADING TIPS
SELL EURUSD BELOW 1.2870 TGT 1.2850/1.2830 SL 1.2900 The Euro-zone inflation rate was confirmed at a three year low in April, according to a final estimate by Eurostat. The consumer price index was reported at 1.2% higher than April 2012, unchanged from a previous estimate and down from 1.7% inflation rate in March. Eurozone consumer prices fell 0.1% in March on a monthly basis. The Euro-zone trade balance was reported at a record high 18.7 billion Euros in March (seasonally adjusted), beating expectations for 11.5 billion Euros and up from a revised 12.7 billion Euros in February. The Euro-zone inflation rate is well below the ECBs 2% inflation target, and therefore allows the central bank to remain accommodative. The ECB cut the interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.50% in the May meeting. Therefore, a lower than expected inflation rate may be Euro negative.

BUY USDJPY ABOVE 102.60 TGT 102.80/103.00 SL 102.30

SELL GBPUSD BELOW

1.5230 TGT 1.5210/1.5190 SL 1.5260

WWW.EPICRESEARCH.CO

+91 7316642300

 HOURLY EURUSD CHART HOURLY EURUSD CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.2872 HIGH: 1.2878 LOW: 1.2872 CLOSE: 1.2873 EURUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>-.0010(BEARISHSIGNAL) RSI => 41(BEARISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USDJPY CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 102.58 HIGH: 102.59 LOW: 102.53 CLOSE: 102.54 USDJPY LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIP MACD =>.07(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 63(BULLISHSIGNAL)

HOURLY GBPUSD CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 1.5229 HIGH: 1.5234 LOW: 1.5226 CLOSE: 1.5226 GBPUSD LOOKS DOWNWARD TREND: BEARISH STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE MACD =>-.0005(BEARISH SIGNAL) RSI => 43.0383(BEARISH SIGNAL)

www.epicresearch.co

+ 91 7316642300

HOURLY EURGBP CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 00.8452 HIGH: 00.8454 LOW: 00.8451 CLOSE: 00.8453 EURGBP LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIPS MACD =>-.0004(BULLISH SIGNAL) RSI => 48.5521(BULLISH SIGNAL)

HOURLY USD INDEX CHART

ANALYSIS OPEN: 83.9350 HIGH: 83.9390 LOW: 83.9390 CLOSE: 83.8880 USDINDEX LOOKS UPWARD TREND: BULLISH STRATEGY: BUY ON DIP MACD =>-.0440(BULLISHSIGNAL) RSI => 72.1996(BULLISH SIGNAL)

www.epicresearch.co

+ 91 7316642300

ECONOMIC CALLENDER
Date Time
22:14

Currency

Event
NZD REINZ House Sales (YoY) (APR) NZD REINZ Housing Price Index (APR) NZD REINZ Housing Price Index (MoM) (APR) NZD Food Prices (MoM) (APR) JPY Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (APR) JPY Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (APR) AUD Home Loans (MAR) AUD NAB Business Confidence (APR) AUD Investment Lending (MAR) AUD NAB Business Conditions (APR) AUD RBA Credit Card Balances (MAR) AUD RBA Credit Card Purchases (MAR) AUD Value of Loans (MoM) (MAR) CNY Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (APR) CNY Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (APR) CNY Industrial Production (YoY) (APR) CNY Retail Sales YTD (YoY) (APR) CNY Retail Sales (YoY) (APR) CHF Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (MAR) USD Advance Retail Sales (APR)

Importance
Medium

Actual
25.2%

Forecast

Previous
10.9%

Sun May 12

22:14

Low

3661.5

3631.4

22:14

Low

0.8%

2.4%

22:45

Low

0.2%

-1.3%

23:50

Low

3.3

3.1%

3.1%

23:50

Low

2.6%

2.5%

2.5%

Mon May 13

01:30

Medium

5.2%

4.0%

2.1%

01:30

Medium

-2

01:30

Low

2.1%

1.9%

01:30

Low

-6

-7

01:30

Low

A$49.7B

A$50.0B

01:30

Low

A$20.2B

A$20.2B

01:30

Low

5.8%

1.2%

05:30

Medium

20.6%

21.0%

20.9%

05:30

Medium

9.4%

9.5%

9.5%

05:30

Medium

9.3%

9.4%

8.9%

05:30

Medium

12.5%

12.6%

12.4%

05:30

Medium

12.8%

12.8%

12.6%

07:15

Medium

-0.9%

2.4%

12:30

High

-0.3%

-0.4%

12:30

USD Retail Sales Less Autos (APR) USD Retail Sales "Control Group" (APR) USD Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas (APR) EUR Euro Zone Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels USD Business Inventories (MAR) NZD Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (1Q) GBP RICS House Price Balance (APR) JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (MoM) (APR) JPY Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index (YoY) (APR) JPY Loans & Discounts Corp (YoY) (MAR) CNY Actual FDI (YoY) (APR)

Medium

-0.2%

-0.4%

12:30

Low

0.3%

-0.2%

12:30

Low

0.3%

-0.1%

13:00

High

14:00

Medium

0.3%

0.1%

22:45

Medium

0.8%

2.1%

23:01

Medium

2%

-1%

23:50

Low

0.1%

0.1%

23:50

Low

-0.2%

-0.5%

23:50

Low

1.4%

Tue May 14
03:00

Medium

6.2%

5.7%

NZD Non Resident Bond Holdings (APR) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (YoY) (APR F) EUR German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR F) EUR German Consumer Price Index EU Harmonised (MoM) (APR F) EUR German Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR F) JPY Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (APR P) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (APR) EUR German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (APR) USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy in Stockholm EUR Italian General Government Debt (MAR)

Low

68.3%

06:00

High

1.1%

1.1%

06:00

High

1.2%

1.2%

06:00

Medium

-0.5%

-0.5%

06:00

Medium

-0.5%

-0.5%

06:00

Medium

-21.5%

06:00

Low

-0.2%

06:00

Low

0.3%

06:00

Low

08:30

Medium

2017.6B

09:00

EUR German ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAY) EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (MAR) EUR Euro-Zone ZEW Survey (Economic Sentiment) (MAY) EUR German ZEW Survey (Current Situation) (MAY) EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (MAR) USD NFIB Small Business Optimism (APR) USD Import Price Index (MoM) (APR) USD Import Price Index (YoY) (APR) CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (MoM) (APR) CAD Teranet/National Bank HPI (YoY) (APR) CAD Teranet/National Bank HP Index (APR) USD New York Fed Releases Quarterly Household Debt Report JPY Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (MAR) AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (MoM) (APR) AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales (YoY) (APR) AUD Wage Cost Index (QoQ) (1Q) AUD Wage Cost Index (YoY) (1Q) JPY Consumer Confidence (APR) EUR French Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (1Q P) EUR French Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P) EUR German Gross Domestic Product n.s.a. (YoY) (1Q P)

High

40

36.3

09:00

Medium

-2.1%

-3.1%

09:00

Medium

24.9

09:00

Medium

9.8

9.2

09:00

Low

0.5%

0.4%

11:30

Low

89.8

89.5

12:30

Low

-0.5%

-0.5%

12:30

Low

-2.7%

13:00

Low

0.4%

13:00

Low

2.6%

13:00

Low

153.31

15:00

Medium

23:50

Medium

-0.7%

1.1%

Wed May 15

01:30

Low

-0.6%

01:30

Low

4.5%

01:30

Low

0.8%

0.8%

01:30

Low

3.3%

3.4%

05:00

Medium

45.5

44.8

05:30

Medium

-0.4%

-0.3%

05:30

Low

-0.1%

-0.3%

06:00

High

0.2%

0.1%

06:00

EUR German Gross Domestic Product w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q P) EUR German Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q P) CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (APR) CHF Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (APR) EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q P) EUR Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (1Q P) GBP Jobless Claims Change (APR) GBP Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (MAR) GBP Claimant Count Rate (APR) GBP Employment Change (3M/3M) (MAR) GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (MAR) GBP Weekly Earnings exBonus (3M/YoY) (MAR) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (1Q A) CHF ZEW Survey (Expectations) (MAY) EUR Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product s.a. (QoQ) (1Q A) GBP Bank of England Inflation Report USD MBA Mortgage Applications (MAY 10) USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (APR) USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR) CAD Manufacturing Shipments (MoM) (MAR) USD Empire Manufacturing (MAY)

High

0.2%

0.4%

06:00

Medium

0.3%

-0.6%

07:15

Low

-0.2%

0.0%

07:15

Low

-0.3%

-0.3%

08:00

Medium

-2.3%

-2.8%

08:00

Low

-0.4%

-0.9%

08:30

High

-3.0K

-7.0K

08:30

Medium

0.7%

0.8%

08:30

Medium

4.6%

4.6%

08:30

Medium

-20K

-2K

08:30

Medium

7.9%

7.9%

08:30

Low

0.8%

1.0%

09:00

High

-0.9%

-0.9%

09:00

Medium

20

09:00

Medium

-0.1%

-0.6%

09:30

High

11:00

Low

7.0%

12:30

Medium

1.7%

1.7%

12:30

Medium

0.8%

1.1%

12:30

Low

0.5%

2.6%

12:30

Low

3.05

12:30

USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (APR) USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (APR) CAD Existing Home Sales (MoM) (APR) USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (MAR) USD Total Net TIC Flows (MAR) USD Industrial Production (APR) USD Manufacturing (SIC) Production (APR) USD Capacity Utilization (APR) USD NAHB Housing Market Index (MAY) USD DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory (MAY 10) USD DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAY 10) USD DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory (MAY 10) USD DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories (MAY 10) NZD Business NZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (APR) JPY Gross Domestic Product Annualized (1Q P) JPY Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P) JPY Nominal Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q P) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Bonds (Yen) (MAY 10) JPY Foreign Buying Japan Stocks (Yen) (MAY 10) JPY Gross Domestic Product Deflator (YoY) (1Q P) JPY Japan Buying Foreign Bonds (Yen) (MAY 10)

Low

0.1%

0.2%

12:30

Low

-0.6%

-0.6%

13:00

Medium

2.40%

13:00

Medium

-$17.8B

13:00

Low

$53.6B

13:15

Medium

-0.1%

0.4%

13:15

Medium

0.0%

-0.1%

13:15

Low

78.3%

78.5%

14:00

Low

43

42

14:30

Low

-652K

14:30

Low

230K

14:30

Low

1812K

14:30

Low

-910K

22:30

Medium

53.4

23:50

High

2.7%

0.2%

23:50

High

0.7%

0.0%

23:50

High

0.5%

-0.3%

23:50

Low

267.0B

23:50

Low

-26.2B

23:50

Low

-0.9%

-0.7%

23:50

Low

309.9B

23:50

JPY Japan Buying Foreign Stocks (Yen) (MAY 10) AUD RBA FX Transactions "Other" (APR) AUD RBA Foreign Exchange Transaction (Australian dollar) (APR) AUD RBA FX Transactions "Government" (APR) JPY Tokyo Condominium Sales (YoY) (APR) JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR F) JPY Capacity Utilization (MoM) (MAR F) JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR F) USD Fed's Plosser Speaks on Monetary Policy in Milan EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (APR F) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR F) EUR Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR) EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance (euros) (MAR) EUR Euro-Zone Trade Balance s.a. (euros) (MAR) USD Fed's Rosengren Speaks in Milan USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (APR) USD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) USD Building Permits (MoM) (APR) USD Consumer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (APR) USD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR)

Low

28.0B

Thu May 16

01:30

Low

71M

01:30

Low

577M

03:30

Low

04:00

Low

48.4%

04:30

Medium

-7.3%

04:30

Low

0.7%

04:30

Low

0.2%

07:45

Low

09:00

High

1.0%

1.0%

09:00

High

1.2%

1.2%

09:00

Medium

-0.1%

1.2%

09:00

Low

10.4B

09:00

Low

12.0B

12.0B

11:45

Low

12:30

High

1.8%

1.9%

12:30

High

1.3%

1.5%

12:30

Medium

3.6%

-3.9%

12:30

Medium

0.2%

0.1%

12:30

Medium

-0.3%

-0.2%

12:30

USD Housing Starts (MoM) (APR) USD Initial Jobless Claims (MAY 11) CAD International Securities Transactions (Canadian dollar) (MAR) USD Building Permits (APR) USD Consumer Price Index Core Index s.a. (APR) USD Consumer Price Index n.s.a. (APR) USD Continuing Claims (MAY 4) USD Housing Starts (APR) USD Fed's Fisher Speaks at NABE Industry Conference in Houston USD Philadelphia Fed. (MAY) USD EIA Natural Gas Storage Change (MAY 10) USD Fed's Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy in Oregon NZD ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (APR) NZD Producer PricesInputs (QoQ) (1Q) NZD Producer PricesOutputs (QoQ) (1Q) JPY Machine Orders (YoY) (MAR) JPY Housing Loans (YoY) (1Q) JPY Machine Orders (MoM) (MAR) USD Revisions: Housing Starts NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (MAY) NZD ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (MAY)

Medium

-5.4%

7.0%

12:30

Medium

330K

323K

12:30

Low

-6.31B

12:30

Low

940K

902K

12:30

Low

232.758

12:30

Low

232.7

232.773

12:30

Low

3003K

3005K

12:30

Low

980K

1036K

13:00

Low

14:00

Medium

2.3

1.3

14:30

Low

88

19:05

Low

22:00

Low

0.7%

22:45

Low

0.2%

-0.3%

22:45

Low

0.0%

-0.1%

23:50

Medium

-4.9%

-11.3%

23:50

Low

3.1%

23:50

Low

3.3%

7.5%

Fri May 17
01:00

Low

Low

119.2

01:00

Low

3.8%

01:30

CNY China April Property Prices CNY Conference Board China April Leading Economic Index EUR EU 25 New Car Registrations (APR) EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (MAR) EUR Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (MAR) CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) (APR) CAD Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR) CAD Bank Canada Consumer Price Index Core (MoM) (APR) CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) (APR) CAD Consumer Price Index (APR) CAD Consumer Price Index s.a. (MoM) (APR) CAD Core CPI s.a. (MoM) (APR) CAD Wholesale Sales (MoM) (MAR) USD U. of Michigan Confidence (MAY P) USD Leading Indicators (APR) USD Revisions to Factory Orders Report USD Fed's Kocherlakota, Riksbank's Ingves Speak in Chicago USD Fed's Bernanke Delivers Commencement Speech at Bard College

Medium

02:00

Low

06:00

Low

-10.2%

09:00

Low

-0.8%

09:00

Low

0.8%

12:30

High

1.2%

1.4%

12:30

High

0.9%

1.0%

12:30

Medium

0.2%

0.2%

12:30

Medium

0.2%

0.2%

12:30

Low

122.9

12:30

Low

0.1%

12:30

Low

0.2%

12:30

Low

0.4%

0.0%

13:55

Medium

77.6

76.4

14:00

Medium

0.2%

-0.1%

14:00

Low

17:45

Low

Sat May 18

15:00

Low

Disclaimer
The information and views in this report, our website & all the service we provide are believed to be reliable, but we do not accept any responsibility (or liability) for errors of fact or opinion. Users have the right to choose the product/s that suits them the most. Sincere efforts have been made to present the right investment perspective. The information contained herein is based on analysis and up on sources that we consider reliable. This material is for personal information and based upon it & takes no responsibility The information given herein should be treated as only factor, while making investment decision. The report does not provide individually tailor-made investment advice. Epic research recommends that investors independently evaluate particular investments and strategies, and encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial adviser. Epic research shall not be responsible for any transaction conducted based on the information given in this report, which is in violation of rules and regulations of NSE and BSE. The share price projections shown are not necessarily indicative of future price performance. The information herein, together with all estimates and forecasts, can change without notice. Analyst or any person related to epic research might be holding positions in the stocks recommended. It is understood that anyone who is browsing through the site has done so at his free will and does not read any views expressed as a recommendation for which either the site or its owners or anyone can be held responsible for . Any surfing and reading of the information is the acceptance of this disclaimer. All Rights Reserved. Investment in equity & bullion market has its own risks. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. we are not responsible for any loss incurred whatsoever for any financial profits or loss which may arise from the recommendations above epic research does not purport to be an invitation or an offer to buy or sell any financial instrument. Our Clients (Paid Or Unpaid), Any third party or anyone else have no rights to forward or share our calls or SMS or Report or Any Information Provided by us to/with anyone which is received directly or indirectly by them. If found so then Serious Legal Actions can be taken.

www.epicresearch.co

+ 91 7316642300