Marché Du Livre Numérique en Grande Bretagne Étude Nielsen PDF

UNDERSTANDING THE MIGRATION TO E-B00KS
CURRENT AND FUTURE TRENDS
David Walter 16 May 2013
Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Context
Consumer Confidence and International Print Book Markets
The UK e-book market

E-book penetration and the rate of change The value of the e-book and print book market E-book pricing and the consequences for print book prices
CONTEXT
GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

Q1 2013 Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index
160
140
120
120
111 94 93 Global average 90 79 75 70
100
93
80
60
47
44
40
20
Base : All respondents n=28820

Consumer Confidence Survey Q1 2013 Field Dates: February 17 to March 8, 2013 5
BOOKSCANS NINE INTERNATIONAL TERRITORIES

A combined total of over 1 billion sales were measured in 2012

Only India showed year on year growth in 2012 but the UK saw a shallow decline
-7.2% -10.3%
-3.4% -7.0%
-9.3%
16.0%
-6.3% -8.8% -3.7%

7

Only India showed year on year growth in 2012 but the UK saw a shallow decline
-7.2% -10.3%
-3.4% -7.0%
-9.3%
?
-8.8%
16.0%
-6.3%
-3.7%
8
INTERNATIONAL SECTOR TRENDS

The Non-Fiction sector is seeing the sharpest declines in major territories
Year-on-year volume sales change across broad sectors
US
UK
ROI
IT
AUS
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0% Total Fiction
-5.0% Non Fiction
0.0% Children's
5.0%
10.0%
9
THE UK E-BOOK MARKET
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0% 23-Jan-11 20-Feb-11 20-Mar-11 17-Apr-11 15-May-11 12-Jun-11 10-Jul-11 07-Aug-11 04-Sep-11 02-Oct-11 30-Oct-11 27-Nov-11 7.1% 25-Dec-11 22-Jan-12 19-Feb-12 18-Mar-12 15-Apr-12 13-May-12 10-Jun-12 08-Jul-12 05-Aug-12 02-Sep-12 30-Sep-12 28-Oct-12 25-Nov-12 23-Dec-12 20-Jan-13 17.0% 16.1%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Nielsen Insight into the E-book Consumer Market: April 2013
Market penetration in percentage terms
Percentage of the UK population aged 13-79 that have bought an e-book: 2011-2013
DIGITAL CUMULATIVE PENETRATION
8.4%
11
PERFORMANCE - TRENDED UK - eBooks

eBooks Total Books | 52 w/e
600
160,000
480
128,000 Sales (000)
% Change
360
96,000
240
64,000
120
32,000
% Change
Latest Year
Previous Year
Kantar Worldpanel
12
DIGITAL CUMULATIVE PENETRATION

E-book population increases per four-week period
Numbers of individuals aged 13-79 entering the e-book market: period-on-period growth in population number terms
700,000 621,000 600,000
500,000 423,000 400,000
300,000
Mean average line (287,000)
200,000
100,000 15-May-11 13-May-12 17-Apr-11 25-Dec-11 15-Apr-12 20-Mar-11 18-Mar-12 23-Dec-12 23-Jan-11 22-Jan-12 07-Aug-11 05-Aug-12 02-Oct-11 30-Oct-11 27-Nov-11 28-Oct-12 12-Jun-11 10-Jun-12 25-Nov-12 20-Feb-11 04-Sep-11 19-Feb-12 02-Sep-12 30-Sep-12 20-Jan-13
13
10-Jul-11
Nielsen Insight into the E-book Consumer Market: April 2013
08-Jul-12
PRODUCTS - TRENDED UK - TOTAL BOOKS

Spend (000) | Actual | TOTAL MARKET | Books-Adult Fiction | 52 w/e
600,000
Spend (000) - Actual
400,000
200,000
Total Books
Hardback
Paperback
eBooks
Kantar Worldpanel
17
UK 2012 VOLUME SALES

Volume sales proportions by format
Fiction
Non-Fiction
8.4%
27.0%
Childrens
6.5%
physical books
e-books
19
UK 2012 VALUE SALES

Value sales proportions by format
Fiction
16.9%
Non-Fiction
3.9%
Childrens
4.7%
physical books
e-books
20
THE UK FICTION MARKET

E-books drive volume growth
Fiction 52 week rolling volume sales
Millions
120 100 80 60 40 20
25-Dec-11
23-Dec-12
Physical Books
e-books
21

Millions
120 100 80 60 -15.0%
40 20
25-Dec-11
23-Dec-12
Physical Books
e-books
22

Millions
120 100 80 60 -15.0%
40 20
25-Dec-11
23-Dec-12
Physical Books
e-books
23

Millions
120 100 80 60 -15.0%
40 20
25-Dec-11
23-Dec-12
Physical Books
e-books
24

Millions
120 100 80 60
2.4%
-15.0%
40 20
25-Dec-11
23-Dec-12
Physical Books
e-books
25

E-books drive volume growth but dont deliver revenue growth
Fiction 52 week rolling value sales
Millions
600 500 400 300 200 100 0

25-Dec-11 23-Dec-12
Physical Books
e-books
26

Millions
600 500 400 300 -13.4%
200 100 0
25-Dec-11 23-Dec-12
Physical Books
e-books
27

Millions
600 500 400 300 -13.4%
200 100 0
25-Dec-11 23-Dec-12
Physical Books
e-books
28

Millions
600 500 400 300 -13.4%
200 100 0
25-Dec-11 23-Dec-12
Physical Books
e-books
29

Millions
600 500 400 300
-3.6%
-13.4%
200 100 0
25-Dec-11 23-Dec-12
Physical Books
e-books
30
E-BOOK AND PHYSICAL BOOK SELLING PRICES

E-book prices have been driven down as penetration increases
Rolling 52-week average selling price
7.00 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.00 2.38 3.21
4.50
4.00 3.50 3.00
Physical Books
ebooks
31
KEY FINDINGS
From our international markets, including the US, Italy and the UK
Print book markets worldwide continue to see decline E-book sales data is not yet broadly available consumer data helps to bridge this gap In the UK, the rapid growth in e-book adoption has slowed somewhat Christmas sees strong sales of e-readers, but not e-books as these are not easily giftable In the UK e-books have taken a substantial proportion of the Fiction market, delivering volume growth but this is not matched by revenue growth Whilst e-books become increasingly significant for the Fiction market, the Non-Fiction and Childrens sectors have not kept up
E-book pricing is not only lower then physical books - it has been driven down as penetration has increased
32
david.walter@nielsen.com

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UNDERSTANDING THE MIGRATION TO E-B00KS

CURRENT AND FUTURE TRENDS

David Walter 16 May 2013

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

The UK e-book market

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

GLOBAL CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX

111 94 93 Global average 90 79 75 70

Base : All respondents n=28820

BOOKSCANS NINE INTERNATIONAL TERRITORIES

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

BOOKSCANS NINE INTERNATIONAL TERRITORIES

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

-6.3% -8.8% -3.7%

BOOKSCANS NINE INTERNATIONAL TERRITORIES

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

INTERNATIONAL SECTOR TRENDS

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

-10.0% Total Fiction

-5.0% Non Fiction

THE UK E-BOOK MARKET

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

Nielsen Insight into the E-book Consumer Market: April 2013

Market penetration in percentage terms

DIGITAL CUMULATIVE PENETRATION

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

PERFORMANCE - TRENDED UK - eBooks

128,000 Sales (000)

DIGITAL CUMULATIVE PENETRATION

500,000 423,000 400,000

Mean average line (287,000)

Nielsen Insight into the E-book Consumer Market: April 2013

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

PRODUCTS - TRENDED UK - TOTAL BOOKS

Spend (000) - Actual

UK 2012 VOLUME SALES

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

UK 2012 VALUE SALES

THE UK FICTION MARKET

THE UK FICTION MARKET

120 100 80 60 -15.0%

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

THE UK FICTION MARKET

120 100 80 60 -15.0%

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

THE UK FICTION MARKET

120 100 80 60 -15.0%

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

THE UK FICTION MARKET

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

THE UK FICTION MARKET

600 500 400 300 200 100 0

THE UK FICTION MARKET

600 500 400 300 -13.4%

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

THE UK FICTION MARKET

600 500 400 300 -13.4%

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.

THE UK FICTION MARKET

600 500 400 300 -13.4%

Copyright 2012 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.