www.sktsang.

com
2011722
1


:
1.
2
2.
3
3.
4.
5.
6.

QE2

3R
2

(1)

200810

(1)(2)
()
(2008) :
www.sktsang.com/ArchiveIII/CBC_sktsang_081011.pdf
g
_
g_
p
(1)(profit
realization) ()(2)
(international repayment) (
)

(long waves) 6070

(, 2003)
3

/GDP
/GDP

Estevadeorda, Frantz and Taylor (2003) ,(2009)

/GDP
/G

Taylor (2002) ; Obstfeld and Taylor (2003),(2009)

(1)
GDP
1970

IMF

(1)
15.00
10 00
10.00
5.00
0.00
-5.00
-10.00
15 00
-15.00
-20.00
-25.00
-30.00

1980

19
8
19 0
8
19 1
1982
8
19 3
1984
8
19 5
8
19 6
1987
8
19 8
8
19 9
1990
9
19 1
1992
9
19 3
9
19 4
1995
9
19 6
1997
9
19 8
9
20 9
2000
0
20 1
0
20 2
2003
0
20 4
2005
0
20 6
0
20 7
08

(%
)

(NIIP)
(GNI)

IMF

((1))

(debt
destruction)

(Krugman, 2010; Bloomberg

Businessweek, 2010)

/
(derivatives)
(
g )
(leverage)
8

19
1970M
1971M1
7
19 2M1
1973M1
7
19 4M1
1975M1
1976M1
7
19 7M1
1978M1
1979M1
8
19 0M1
1981M1
8
19 2M1
1983M1
1984M1
8
19 5M1
1986M1
8
19 7M1
1988M1
1989M1
9
19 0M1
1991M1
1992M1
9
19 3M1
9
19 4M1
9
19 5M1
1996M1
1997M1
9
19 8M1
2099M1
0
20 0M1
2001M1
2002M1
0
20 3M1
2004M1
2005M1
0
20 6M1
2007M1
08 1
M
1

(%)

(1)

25.00

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00

0.00

99

(1)
(OTC)

( )
GDP ( )

700000

12

600000

10
8

400000
6
300000

500000

200000
100000

0
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

10

(1)

(financial derivatives)

2008
2008-09
09

30

(long wave)

11

((2))

(QE1)

/
/
Economic Outlook 20109
Interim Projections
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/22/10/45971907.pdf
/

QE180%
Q

12

13

((2))

14

(2)

: Harding (2010)3
(2010) 3
15

16

(2)

(PIIGS)

(

)--

17

2007-2009:

18

(3)

QE1
(yield curve)

19

20

21

(4) QE2()

22

(4) QE2()

23

(4) QE2

(exit)
2010 (QE2)
QE(Tsang Shu-ki, 2008)
2003 06
2003-06

QE2
QE2QE1
QE1 1.725
1 725
2010112011

QE2

QE3QE4
24

(4) QE2
QE

QE1

(
)

(currency wars)
25

(4) QE2

QE1QE2

26

(4) QE2

27

(4) QE2

28

(4) QE2

()
(liquidity
(liq idit trap)

(Keynesian rescue)
(Paul Krugman)
(i fl ti targeting)
(inflation
t
ti )
(QE)

1930(New Deal)

29

(4) QE2

IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2011

30

/GDP:2007-12
/GDP:2007
12

31

((4)) Q
QE2

1980

: IMF

32

(4) QE2
Q
QE2

AAA

33

(4) QE2

34

(4) QE2

35

(4) QE2

36

((5))

QE3

(: 1930

21

(Tsang Shu-ki, 2010)
QE2
QE
QE

37

((5))
381.17
(03/09/1929)

- 89.2%

41.22
(08/07/1932)

38

(5)

54%

39

(5)
225

38,916
(29/12/1989)

- 80.5%

7,608
(28/04/2003)

9,202
(29/10/2010)

40

(5)

(stagflation)
(stagflation)

(BRIC)
(BRIC)

1930

((1)(2)(
) ( )(
)

41

(5)
G-20

IMF

42

(5)
:

IMF

43

(5)

(2002-2004
)
)
QE1
()

(fight for resources)

44

(5)

45

46

(5)
50100

BRIC
C
()

47

48

(5)

--

( l b l rebalancing)
(global
b l
i ) (Tsang
(T
Shu-ki,
Sh ki 2009),
2009)
QE2 .QE3

49

((5))

(hurt tiger)
tiger)

(internationalization)
( g
(regionalization)(globalization)
)
(g
)
"3R
" ((20091028)

):
www.sktsang.com/ArchiveIII/Tsang3R091028.ppt

50

(6)3R

3R
3R
(1) ()
((Rebalancing);
g); ((2))
(Regionalization); (3)
(Resource)

3R
3R

51

52

(6)3R

53

()

54

 ()
()

55

(6)3R

19

56

()
()

57

(6) 3R
(6)3R

1970-80

(
)
)

58

59

(6)3R

60

(6) 3R
(6)3R

3R
(Regionalization)

((Resource))

(Rebalancing)

61

Bloomberg Businessweek (2010), Iceland Bankruptcyto-Rebound Reveals Models Ireland Won

Won'tt Take
Take , 2
December 2010
(http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-02/icelandbankrupting self to recovery reveals policy ireland
bankrupting-self-to-recovery-reveals-policy-irelanddared-not-take.html).
Harding,
g, Robin ((2010),
), Some enchanted easing
g ,,
Financial Times, 28 October 2010, p.9.
Krugman, Paul (2010), Eating the Irish, New York
Times 25 November 2010,
Times,
2010 OP-ED
OP-ED.
Tsang Shu-ki Two-Speed Recovery under Tectonic
Effect? -- Comments on IMF Regional Economic
Outlook: Asia and Pacific (28/4/2011),

http://www.sktsang.com/ArchiveIII/Com%20on%20I
MF%20AREO.pdf
p .
62

(2010) (6/11/2010)
htt //
http://www.sktsang.com/ArchiveIII/Tsang-DWIIkt
/A hi III/T
DWII
20101106.pdf
(2010)3R
-

()
131-153
Tsang Shu-ki (2009), Whither the global polity/economy?
(15/9/2009) www.sktsang.com/RF/Tsang_0909.pdf .
(2009) 3R
3R (28/10/2009)
www.sktsang.com/ArchiveIII/Tsang3R091028.ppt
Tsang, S.K., (2008), The Economic Basis of
Regionalization, The Pan-Pearl
Regionalization
Pan Pearl River Delta: An emerging
regional economy in a globalizing China, in Y.M. Yeung and
Shen Jianfa (eds.), The Chinese University Press: pp.89-113.
63


(2008)
(11/10/2008)
www.sktsang.com/ArchiveIII/CBC_sktsang_081011.pdf
Tsang Shu-ki (2008), How to save the economy as an
irresponsible central bank" (20/4/2008)
www.sktsang.com/RF/CB_2008A.pdf.
Tsangg Shu-ki (2005), Historyy unfoldingg - economic crisis
in an uneven world" (4/5/2005)

www.sktsang.com/ArchiveIII/History_unfolding.pdf.
Tsang Shu-ki
Shu ki (2004), Delayed
Delayed calls: the paradox of
demand side deflation versus supply side inflation
(16/5/2004)
www sktsang com/ArchiveIII/Delayed calls pdf
www.sktsang.com/ArchiveIII/Delayed_calls.pdf.
(2003) (27/6/2003)
www.sktsang.com/ArchiveIII/Long-WaveAgain.pdf
64