Bridging up Energy Demand-Supply Gap and Economic Growth in Pakistan

Engr. Dr. Nazir Hussain

GB-PWD Gilgit-Baltistan

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INDEX
S.No.
I 2 3 4 5 6
7 8 9

Content
Table of contents Introduction Description General Analysis Current Information Discussions Conclusions Conclusion Bibliography

Page No.

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1. INTRODUCTION World population is increasing exponentially but the energy resources are diminishing with respective to population growth rate. World energy economics indicates that energy consumption is the barometer of economic growth of any country. Regional population statistics depicts that population of South Asian countries, African continent are increasing by leaps and bound. Despite having one child policy chinas population is shooting up and after next thirty years India will supersede China. China is exploiting its manpower and despite having lower energy consumption its economy is growing considerably. There is a tendency among the countries of the world for a correlation between income growth and growth in energy consumption. Although the correlation is not perfect but some relationship holds good for many countries. The ratio of energy consumption to GDP is defined as the energy intensity of the economy. The GDP grows through the increase in population and results in an increase in energy consumption also. Therefore, growth of GDP virtually parallels that of energy consumption. Energy is life line for economic growth of any country. Energy is the propeller of industrial and agricultural sector. The energy mix supply indicates that we use 43% of energy generated by oil, 38% from natural gas and 10% HNP, and coal just 5%. Despite having fourth largest coal reserve in the world we are still importing over 2.5 million tons on annual basis. The gas reserve is unfortunately depleting by dint of that power shortage is expected to be little over 5250MW by 2010. Gas and energy shortages are attributed to shutting down certain businesses. Pakistan current (2012), capacity is around 21000MW of which around 20% is hydroelectric. Much of rest is thermal fueled primarily by gas and oil. Per capita energy consumption of Pakistan is estimated 14million BTU (= 0.0003528ktoe=4103.4kwh) to put it in perspective the world average per capita energy use is about 65million BTU Energy access in Pakistan is only 60% and 40% of the Pakistani households are deprived from energy on the other hand renewable energy resources such as hydro, wind, solar are perhaps underutilized and under developed today as Pakistan has ample potential to exploit these resources. Pakistan being the sixth populous country of the world and having highest population growth rate among SAARC countries more migration from village to cities and increase stress on environment, recovery phase from the damages done by October, 2005, Kashmir earthquake, devastating Pakistan flood damages of August, 2010, global economic recession, energy crisis and the war against terror had further devastated the economy and stunted growth. There is a strong correlation between GNP and energy consumption and economic growth. The energy-out put ratios for a number country also show common trend that till gaining industrial maturity energy-output ratios, goes up in the early stages of economic growth that declines slightly and ultimately settles down considerably. The considerable increase may be attributed to industrialization, urbanization and substitution of commercial for noncommercial fuel. Researches show that energy saving in the developing countries cannot be achieved unless GNP is proportionately reduced Page 3 of 11

paripassu with energy consumption. Power shortages are believed to be the biggest constraint to growth costing the economy 3-4 percent current addition of 3000MW in national grid, and many new projects to come on line next year 2. DESCRIPTION Power consumption is an indicator of development of any country. So in order to provide adequate sustenance to destitute masses, supply to our industries, booming the shattered economy from dominos to dynamos, to bring all barren lands under cultivation, help improving environmental conditions we have to capture and optimize energy resources. The energy growth rate should increase with the growth of population. By dint of rising of oil prices in the world oil market for sustainable development renewable energy resources have to exploit and potential sites should be explored well in time prior facing the music of energy crisis. Pakistan despite having enormous coal reserves and potential sites for harnessing environmentally friendly hydroelectricity sources has become an energy deficit country and relying on imported furnace oil, and rapidly depleting gas reserves. Utilization of non conventional energy resources like wind, solar, photovoltaic, biomass, geothermal, agricultural residue, tidal energy, ethane gas (C2H6) etc. is imperative for sustainable development

Prognosis and diagnosis of energy crisis

Non construction of hydro-electric dam after Tarbela (1965) Rising up of oil prices after Arab Oil Embargo of 1973, Politicizing IPPs, Non exploiting existing coal and gas reserves Non exploration of potential hydel project sites Establishment of Nuclear Power Plant and NSG limitations, Import of energy and geo-political condition, Political cases against IPPs and RPPs. Import of gas from Iran and Tajikistan (CASA-100) and international politics. Political instability in the country 3. GENERAL ANALYSIS Throwing a birds eye view on the world population statistics it can be construed that Pakistan is at serial number sixth in the more populous countries of the world where as its population is growing at the rate of 1.57% per annum. When we see the list of richer countries of the world then Pakistan falls in the list of low income countries, and from the prospect of energy consumption its per capita daily consumption is merely 438.261KWH/capita per day. When Pakistan came into being in 1947, its population was just 315million that has now grew up to 187.343 million in sixty four years that is almost 83.19% bulging out, and by the end of 2100 the projected population will be 748.407 million, despite the strenuous efforts of subsequent governments as the population growth rate has lowered from 2.17%(2000) to 1.57% (2011). Statistics shows that the birth rate 32.11.1000 population (2000) has decreased to 24.81/1000 population (2011) and death rate per 1000 Page 4 of 11

population has also decreased as 9.51/1000 population (2000) to 6.92/1000 population (2011). Due to better health cover the life expectancy at birth has increased for 61.07years (2000) to65.63 years (2011). The GDP growth rate is also encouraging as it is moving up from 3.10% (2000) to 4.8% (2011), with a positive trend of GDP per capita (PPP), US$2000(2000) by US$2500(2011). Researches show that if Pakistan is to register itself in the rank of countries of economically moderate stable countries then its economic growth should be 6.5 to 7.0 % during the next 15 years, i.e. when the projected population will be 255736063 in 2030. The total electricity consumption during 2005 was 67.05 billion kWh, and during 2008 it was 68.55billion kWh. The energy supply mix indicates that natural gas (48.5%), is the top most rank followed by oil(30%), then comes hydro electricity (12.6%) and coal (7.3%), where as supply of LPG, nuclear etc. is just 1.50% of the total mass cake. Pakistan has an identified potential of 60,000 MW hydro electricity and the coal reserves of Pakistan is estimated to 183 billion tons while the present percentage rate of excavation is only 3.20 billion tons annually. Mand, Mubarak writes, These energy deposits can generate 50,000MW, of electricity and 100million barrels of oil every year for the next 500years. This energy reserve is 100 times the energy reserve in the Middle East, Iran, and Iraq combined. As per EIA, International Energy Statistics Pakistan domestic gas production is 1400(billion cubic feet)(2010) and consumption of the same quantity, where as the proved reserve is 30 billion cubic feet, and total production of oil is 58.36 (thousand barrels per day) (2009), and net consumption of 397 (thousands barrels per day) (2009), and we have to import 338.64 (thousand barrels per day), where as the proved reserve is only 0.34 (billion barrels), where as a big chunk of state exchequer is consumed in importing oil and gas. Pakistan is one of the sixth populous countries of the world as depicted below. As per IEA (2011), sources per capita energy consumption of Pakistan is on lower side compared to other countries having enormous population. Pakistan in one of the richest resource countries in the world.But the entire resources are either not being exploited or misused. The vision of water for food and development is bleak. Projects of national interests have been capped due to inter provincial politics. On the other side major water projects were initiated without taking the affectees to confidence. Thorough planning and technical feasibility is seldom carried out. Keeping the enormous water resources in the Gilgit-Baltistan of Pakistan our development rate, power capacity, and food reserve conditions are precarious. No dam after Tarbela (1965) has been constructed rather all precious time has been spent on ifs and buts of construction of both Kalabagh and Basha- Diamer dams. It is indeed injustice with the poor masses of the country. If we take the world statistics 335 dams having height more than 60 meters and 35 number dams of height more than 150m are under construction. In our neighboring countries, China, India and Iran, the statistics is 103, 23 and 43 numbers respectively. The era of persistent injection of poison of self-centrism and provincial prejudices into the body politics of the unfortunate beloved country should be ceased now. Present Government deserves all appreciations for Page 5 of 11

breaking the ice and initiating raising of Mangla dam by 30 feet, construction of Satpara dam, GomalZum dam, Mirani dam and Diamer-Basha dam. The intention of the President on construct of both Kalabagh and Basha dams is worth commendable and encouraging. Both the opponents and proponents of Kalabagh dam are having cock fights. It is high time to banish such melee, which is undermining the very fabric of our sovereignty. They are twisting the hydrological statistics through fudging figures in their own favors for political gains. It is not a political game but an issue of national importance, national interest should be supreme, and our existence is with the nation. On the other hand the think thank of the country should not only stuck to Kalabagh dam (KBD) but also ferret out other potential sites for our water resource development. Water is renewable resource unlike oil, gas etc. Why dont we use the peculiar topography of Gilgit-Baltistan and utilize the God gifted resources in publicoprobono. We have the technology of inflatable dam, which is widely in practice in Japan, Britain, Germany, Netherlands, and Norway etc. This type of flood barrier is used for controlling water levels during flood season. The flood barrier consisting of three huge balloons made of rubberized cloth, which fills with water and air when flood is imminent. The inflatable dam is maximum 60 minutes and that of drainage is 180 minutes where as thickness of fabric is 16mm with minimum tire span of 35 years and probability of its failure is 1:10,000 years. This is an advanced form of design and construction. Despite that it is cost effective. Consultants can be engaged on design and construct approach. We can construct such dams at following reaches of the Indus:(1) Sermik, (2) Mehdiabad (3) Gole (4) Nar, (5) Kharfocho, (6) Katzara, (7) Tungus, (8) Yulbo, (9) Bunji, (10) Rakhiot, (11) Basha, (12) Dasu,(13) pattan, (14) Thakot,(15) Azadpattan, (16) Kohala etc. Where as is Gilgit-Baltistan this type of dam can be constructed on several reaches of following tributaries of the mighty Indus: (a) River Shyoke (b) River Shigar (c) River Hunza, (d) River Ghizer, (e) River Gilgit, (f) River Astore. Furthermore northern parts of Khyber-Pakhtonkhowa and Kashmir may be other potential sites. The significant benefit of inflatable dam is that we can adjust the height as per our own requirements. We can store flood water and required water is released harnessing enormous amount of electricity and release the stored water during lean period for irrigation purposes. This will help reduce sedimentation problem. Massive floods are partly due to deforestation on the upper reaches of rivers; the leaf canopy of forests can retain 10-20% of rainfall and divert 50% of water underground.

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4. CURRENT INFORMATION

Pakistan Energy Crisis Scenarion (1998-2012) in MWs based on 124W/c/day

0.00 -500.00 -1000.00 -1500.00 -2000.00 -2500.00 -3000.00 -3500.00 -4000.00
-2543.26 -1573.92 -1825.35 -1911.39 -2281.44 -2650.70 -3016.19 -3380.49

1998

2003
-646.71

2004
-774.57

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Fig: 1, Pakistan Energy deficit scenario(1998-2011)

GDP-Real Growth Rate (%)

7 6.6 6 5.5 5 4 3 2 1 0 1999 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 3.1 3.3 2.7 4.8 4.3 6.1 5.3 4.8 6.6

Fig: 2, GDP Growth Rate (1999-2010). 5. DICUSSION Strategies to cope up electricity Crisis Establishment of IPPs(Imported Power Plants) after 1993, Page 7 of 11

 Hiring Rental Power Plants (RPPs) including Power ship from Turkey- a costly solution. Import of electricity from Tajikistan, Import of gas from Iran, Russia, and Turkmenistan Construction of Nuclear Power plant-Chashma-II,III & IV Speeding up construction of Thar Coal Power Plant Exploiting the hydel resources Reversing the thermal: hydel ratio. Hammering out political difference for construction of more dams. Finalization of negotiation for funding the identified and feasible hydel projects. Capacity building of power companies to overcome line losses problems etc. The wattage of per capita energy consumption should be in line with the world average that should be increased gradually 6. CONCLUSIONS Consumption of energy indicates the economic growth. Population is growing and energy generation rate is lagging behind the population growth rate, consequently there are resource constraints. Existing both conventional and non conventional energy resources should be exploited and dependency of thermal energy generation should be minimized. Pakistan despite having enormous hydel potential in Gilgit-Baltistan(60,000MW) and KhyberPakhtonkhowa(18698MW), and coal reserves (50,000 MW), located in Tharparkar Sind, is still dependent on costly and environmentally unfeasible and economically un viable, less lucrative for investment ,furnace oil, that defective planning has to be streamlined while formulating energy policy. Energy shortage is on one side causing unrest and even creating law and order situation and on the other side is badly affecting the economic growth.The capital cost for construction of hydro electricity is 2.3-2.5US$/kwh, and cost of power generation is nominal-3-4US cents/kwh, capital cost of gas is 3-5 US$/kwh and generation cost is 7-8US$/kwh, capital cost of furnace oil is 1.5-1.6US$/kwh but the cost to be incurred on power generation is 9-10 US$/kwh, but coal gasified power capital cost is only 1US$/kwh and power production cost will be 2-3 US cents/kwh.

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