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Page 1

FIRST PAGES

Chapter 20
20-1
(a)

12
10
8
6
4
2
0

60

70

80

90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 210

(b) f/(N
x) = f/(69 10) = f/690

Eq. (20-9)
Eq. (20-10)

fx

f x2

f/(N
x)

60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210

2
1
3
5
8
12
6
10
8
5
2
3
2
1
0
1
69

120
70
240
450
800
1320
720
1300
1120
750
320
510
360
190
0
210
8480

7200
4900
19 200
40 500
80 000
145 200
86 400
169 000
156 800
112 500
51 200
86 700
64 800
36 100
0
44 100
1 104 600

0.0029
0.0015
0.0043
0.0072
0.0116
0.0174
0.0087
0.0145
0.0116
0.0174
0.0029
0.0043
0.0029
0.0015
0
0.0015

8480
= 122.9 kcycles
69
1/2


1 104 600 84802 /69
sx =
69 1
x =

= 30.3 kcycles

Ans.

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Page 2

FIRST PAGES

20-2

Solutions Manual Instructors Solution Manual to Accompany Mechanical Engineering Design

Data represents a 7-class histogram with N = 197.

x

fx

f x2

174
182
190
198
206
214
220

6
9
44
67
53
12
6
197

1044
1638
8360
13 266
10 918
2568
1320
39 114

181 656
298 116
1 588 400
2 626 688
2 249 108
549 552
290 400
7 789 900

39 114
= 198.55 kpsi Ans.
197
1/2


7 783 900 39 1142 /197
sx =
197 1
x =

= 9.55 kpsi

Ans.

20-3
Form a table:
x

fx

f x2

64
68
72
76
80
84
88
92

2
6
6
9
19
10
4
2
58

128
408
432
684
1520
840
352
184
4548

8192
27 744
31 104
51 984
121 600
70 560
30 976
16 928
359 088

4548
= 78.4 kpsi
58
1/2


359 088 45482 /58
sx =
= 6.57 kpsi
58 1
x =

From Eq. (20-14)




1 x 78.4 2
1
f (x) =
exp
2
6.57
6.57 2

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FIRST PAGES

Chapter 20

20-4 (a)
y

fy

f y2

f/(Nw)

f (y)

g(y)

5.625
5.875
6.125
6.375
6.625
6.875
7.125
7.375
7.625
7.875
8.125

1
0
0
3
3
6
14
15
10
2
1
55

5.625
0
0
19.125
19.875
41.25
99.75
110.625
76.25
15.75
8.125
396.375

31.640 63
0
0
121.9219
131.6719
283.5938
710.7188
815.8594
581.4063
124.0313
66.015 63
2866.859

5.625
5.875
6.125
6.375
6.625
6.875
7.125
7.375
7.625
7.875
8.125

0.072 727
0
0
0.218 182
0.218 182
0.436 364
1.018 182
1.090 909
0.727 273
0.145 455
0.072 727

0.001 262
0.008 586
0.042 038
0.148 106
0.375 493
0.685 057
0.899 389
0.849 697
0.577 665
0.282 608
0.099 492

0.000 295
0.004 088
0.031 194
0.140 262
0.393 667
0.725 002
0.915 128
0.822 462
0.544 251
0.273 138
0.106 72

For a normal distribution,

2866.859 (396.3752 /55)

y = 396.375/55 = 7.207,
sy =
55 1



1 x 7.207 2
1
f ( y) =
exp
2
0.4358
0.4358 2

1/2
= 0.4358

For a lognormal distribution,

x = ln 7.206 818 ln 1 + 0.060 4742 = 1.9732,

sx = ln 1 + 0.060 4742 = 0.0604



1
1 ln x 1.9732 2
g( y) =
exp

2
0.0604
x(0.0604)( 2)
(b) Histogram
f
1.2

Data
N
LN

1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
5.63

5.88

6.13

6.38

6.63

6.88 7.13
log N

7.38

7.63

7.88

8.13

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20-5

Solutions Manual Instructors Solution Manual to Accompany Mechanical Engineering Design

Distribution is uniform in interval 0.5000 to 0.5008 in, range numbers are a = 0.5000,
b = 0.5008 in.
(a) Eq. (20-22)

x =

a+b
0.5000 + 0.5008
=
= 0.5004
2
2

Eq. (20-23)

x =

ba
0.5008 0.5000
= 0.000 231
=

2 3
2 3

(b) PDF from Eq. (20-20)


f (x) =

1250 0.5000 x 0.5008 in

0
otherwise

(c) CDF from Eq. (20-21)

x < 0.5000
0
F(x) = (x 0.5)/0.0008 0.5000 x 0.5008

1
x > 0.5008
If all smaller diameters are removed by inspection, a = 0.5002, b = 0.5008
x =

0.5002 + 0.5008
= 0.5005 in
2

0.5008 0.5002
= 0.000 173 in

2 3

1666.7 0.5002 x 0.5008
f (x) =
0
otherwise
x =

x < 0.5002
0
F(x) = 1666.7(x 0.5002) 0.5002 x 0.5008

1
x > 0.5008
20-6

Dimensions produced are due to tool dulling and wear. When parts are mixed, the distribution is uniform. From Eqs. (20-22) and (20-23),

a = x 3s = 0.6241 3(0.000 581) = 0.6231 in

b = x + 3s = 0.6241 + 3(0.000 581) = 0.6251 in

We suspect the dimension was

0.623
in
0.625

Ans.

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FIRST PAGES

Chapter 20

20-7

F(x) = 0.555x 33 mm
(a) Since F(x) is linear, the distribution is uniform at x = a
F(a) = 0 = 0.555(a) 33
a = 59.46 mm. Therefore, at x = b
F(b) = 1 = 0.555b 33
b = 61.26 mm. Therefore,

x < 59.46 mm
0
F(x) = 0.555x 33 59.46 x 61.26 mm

1
x > 61.26 mm
The PDF is d F/dx , thus the range numbers are:

0.555 59.46 x 61.26 mm
f (x) =
0
otherwise

Ans.

From the range numbers,

x =

59.46 + 61.26
= 60.36 mm Ans.
2

61.26 59.46
x =
= 0.520 mm Ans.

2 3

(b) is an uncorrelated quotient F = 3600 lbf, A = 0.112 in2

C F = 300/3600 = 0.083 33,

C A = 0.001/0.112 = 0.008 929

From Table 20-6, for

F
3600
=
= 32 143 psi Ans.
A
0.112
1/2


(0.083332 + 0.0089292 )
= 32 143
= 2694 psi Ans.
(1 + 0.0089292 )
=

C = 2694/32 143 = 0.0838 Ans.

Since F and A are lognormal, division is closed and is lognormal too.
= LN(32 143, 2694) psi

Ans.

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FIRST PAGES

20-8

Solutions Manual Instructors Solution Manual to Accompany Mechanical Engineering Design

Cramers rule



 y x 2 


x y x 3 
yx 3 x yx 2
 =
a1 = 
Ans.
 x x 2 
xx 3 (x 2 ) 2


x 2 x 3 


y 
 x
 2

xx y yx 2
x x y

a2 =
=
Ans.
 x x 2 
xx 3 (x 2 ) 2


x 2 x 3 
x

x2

x3

xy

0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
3.0

0.01
0.15
0.25
0.25
0.17
0.01
0.82

0
0.04
0.16
0.36
0.64
1.00
2.20

0
0.008
0.064
0.216
0.512
1.000
1.800

0
0.030
0.100
0.150
0.136
0.010
0.406

a1 = 1.040 714

a2 = 1.046 43

Ans.

Data
y

Regression
y

0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0

0.01
0.15
0.25
0.25
0.17
0.01

0
0.166 286
0.248 857
0.247 714
0.162 857
0.005 71

y
0.3

Data
Regression

0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0

0.05

x
0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

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FIRST PAGES

Chapter 20

20-9
Su
0
60
64
65
82
101
119
120
130
134
145
180
195
205
207
210
213
225
225
227
230
238
242
265
280
295
325
325
355
5462

Data
Se
30
48
29.5
45
51
50
48
67
60
64
84
78
96
87
87
75
99
87
116
105
109
106
105
96
99
114
117
122
2274.5

m = 0.312 067
Se
140

Regression
Se
20.356 75
39.080 78
40.329 05
40.641 12
45.946 26
51.875 54
57.492 75
57.804 81
60.925 48
62.173 75
65.606 49
76.528 84
81.209 85
84.330 52
84.954 66
85.890 86
86.827 06
90.571 87
90.571 87
91.196
92.132 2
94.628 74
95.877 01
103.054 6
107.735 6
112.416 6
121.778 6
121.778 6
131.140 6

Su2

Su Se

3 600
4 096
4 225
6 724
10 201
14 161
14 400
16 900
17 956
21 025
32 400
38 025
42 025
42 849
44 100
45 369
50 625
50 625
51 529
52 900
56 644
58 564
70 225
78 400
87 025
105 625
105 625
126 025
1 251 868

1 800
3 072
1 917.5
3 690
5 151
5 950
5 760
8 710
8 040
9 280
15 120
15 210
19 680
18 009
18 270
15 975
22 275
19 575
26 332
24 150
25 942
25 652
27 825
26 880
29 205
37 050
38 025
43 310
501 855.5

b = 20.356 75

Ans.

Data
Regression

120
100
80
60
40
20
0

100

200

300

400

Su

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FIRST PAGES

Solutions Manual Instructors Solution Manual to Accompany Mechanical Engineering Design

20-10

y a 0 a2 x 2

2



E
= 2
y a 0 a2 x 2 = 0
a0




y na0 a2
x2 = 0
x2
y = na0 + a2





E
x + a2
x3
=2
y a0 a2 x 2 (2x) = 0
x y = a0
a2
Cramers rule


 y

x y
a0 = 
 n

x

 n
x
a2 = 
 n

x


x 2 
x 3 
x 3 y x 2 x y

=
x 2 
nx 3 xx 2
3
x

y 
nx y xy
x y 
2  =
x 
nx 3 xx 2
x 3

Data
y

Regression
y

x2

20
40
60
80
200

19
17
13
7
56

19.2
16.8
12.8
7.2

400
1600
3600
6400
12 000

x3

xy

8 000 380
64 000 680
216 000 780
512 000 560
800 000 2400

a0 =

800 000(56) 12 000(2400)

= 20
4(800 000) 200(12 000)

a2 =

4(2400) 200(56)
= 0.002
4(800 000) 200(12 000)

y
25

Data
Regression

20

15

10

x
0

20

40

60

80

100

Ans.

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FIRST PAGES

Chapter 20

20-11

Data
y

Regression
y

0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
2
5

7.1
10.3
12.1
13.8
16.2
25.2
84.7

7.931 803
9.884 918
11.838 032
13.791 147
15.744 262
25.509 836

x2

y2

xy

x x

(x x)
2

0.04
0.16
0.36
0.64
1.00
4.00
6.2

50.41
106.09
146.41
190.44
262.44
635.04
1390.83

1.42
4.12
7.26
11.04
16.20
50.40
90.44

0.633 333
0.433 333
0.233 333
0.033 333
0.166 666
1.166 666
0

0.401 111 111

0.187 777 778
0.054 444 444
0.001 111 111
0.027 777 778
1.361 111 111
2.033 333 333

m = k =

6(90.44) 5(84.7)
= 9.7656
6(6.2) (5) 2

84.7 9.7656(5)
= 5.9787
b = Fi =
6
F
30

Data
Regression

25
20
15
10
5
0

x
0

0.5

5
x = ;
6

(a)

y =

1.5

2.5

84.7
= 14.117
6

Eq. (20-37)

s yx =

1390.83 5.9787(84.7) 9.7656(90.44)

62

= 0.556
Eq. (20-36)

sb = 0.556

1 (5/6) 2
+
= 0.3964 lbf
6 2.0333

Fi = (5.9787, 0.3964) lbf

Ans.

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10

Solutions Manual Instructors Solution Manual to Accompany Mechanical Engineering Design

(b) Eq. (20-35)

0.556
sm =
= 0.3899 lbf/in
2.0333
k = (9.7656, 0.3899) lbf/in

Ans.

20-12 The expression  = /l is of the form x/y. Now = (0.0015, 0.000 092) in, unspecified
distribution; l = (2.000, 0.0081) in, unspecified distribution;
C x = 0.000 092/0.0015 = 0.0613
C y = 0.0081/2.000 = 0.000 75
From Table 20-6,  = 0.0015/2.000 = 0.000 75
1/2


0.06132 + 0.004 052
 = 0.000 75
1 + 0.004 052
= 4.607(105 ) = 0.000 046
We can predict  and  but not the distribution of .
20-13 = E
 = (0.0005, 0.000 034) distribution unspecified; E = (29.5, 0.885) Mpsi, distribution
unspecified;
C x = 0.000 034/0.0005 = 0.068,
C y = 0.0885/29.5 = 0.030
is of the form x, y
Table 20-6
=  E = 0.0005(29.5)106 = 14 750 psi
= 14 750(0.0682 + 0.0302 + 0.0682 + 0.0302 ) 1/2
= 1096.7 psi
C = 1096.7/14 750 = 0.074 35
20-14
=

Fl
AE

F = (14.7, 1.3) kip, A = (0.226, 0.003) in2 , l = (1.5, 0.004) in, E = (29.5, 0.885) Mpsi distributions unspecified.
C F = 1.3/14.7 = 0.0884 ;

C A = 0.003/0.226 = 0.0133 ;

C E = 0.885/29.5 = 0.03
Mean of :

  
1
1
Fl
= Fl
=
AE
A
E

Cl = 0.004/1.5 = 0.00267 ;

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FIRST PAGES

11

Chapter 20

From Table 20-6,

A)(1/

= F l(1/
E)
1
1
= 14 700(1.5)
0.226 29.5(106 )
= 0.003 31 in

Ans.

For the standard deviation, using the first-order terms in Table 20-6,

1/2
1/2
. F l 2
= C F2 + Cl2 + C 2A + C 2E
=
C F + Cl2 + C 2A + C E2
A E
= 0.003 31(0.08842 + 0.002672 + 0.01332 + 0.032 ) 1/2
= 0.000 313 in

Ans.

COV
C = 0.000 313/0.003 31 = 0.0945

Ans.

Force COV dominates. There is no distributional information on .

20-15 M = (15 000, 1350) lbf in, distribution unspecified; d = (2.00, 0.005) in distribution
unspecified.
=

32M
,
d3

CM =

1350
= 0.09 ,
15 000

Cd =

0.005
= 0.0025
2.00

is of the form x/y, Table 20-6.

Mean:
=

32(15 000)
32 M . 32 M
=
=
(23 )
d3
d3

= 19 099 psi

Ans.

Standard Deviation:

From Table 20-6,

 2

1/2
= C M
+ Cd23 1 + Cd23
.
Cd 3 = 3Cd = 3(0.0025) = 0.0075
 2

1/2
+ (3Cd ) 2 (1 + (3Cd )) 2
= C M
= 19 099[(0.092 + 0.00752 )/(1 + 0.00752 )]1/2
= 1725 psi

Ans.

COV:
C =

1725
= 0.0903
19 099

Ans.

Stress COV dominates. No information of distribution of .

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12

Solutions Manual Instructors Solution Manual to Accompany Mechanical Engineering Design

20-16
f (x)

x1

x2

Fraction discarded is + . The area under the PDF was unity. Having discarded +
fraction, the ordinates to the truncated PDF are multiplied by a.
a=

1
1 ( + )

New PDF, g(x) , is given by



f (x)/[1 ( + )] x1 x x2
0
otherwise

g(x) =

More formal proof: g(x) has the property



x2

1=

x1

f (x) dx

x1


1=a

x2

g(x) dx = a


f (x) dx

x1


f (x) dx


f (x) dx

x2

1 = a {1 F(x1 ) [1 F(x2 )]}

a=

1
1
1
=
=
F(x2 ) F(x1 )
(1 )
1 ( + )

20-17
(a) d = U[0.748, 0.751]
d =

0.751 + 0.748
= 0.7495 in
2

d =

0.751 0.748
= 0.000 866 in

2 3

f (x) =

1
1
=
= 333.3 in1
ba
0.751 0.748

F(x) =

x 0.748
= 333.3(x 0.748)
0.751 0.748

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13

Chapter 20

F(x1 ) = F(0.748) = 0

(b)

F(x2 ) = (0.750 0.748)333.3 = 0.6667

If g(x) is truncated, PDF becomes
g(x) =

g(x)  500
f (x)  333.3

0.748

0.749

0.750

0.751

f (x)
333.3
=
= 500 in1
F(x2 ) F(x1 )
0.6667 0

x =

a  + b
0.748 + 0.750
=
= 0.749 in
2
2

x =

b a 
0.750 0.748
= 0.000 577 in
=

2 3
2 3

20-18 From Table A-10, 8.1% corresponds to z 1 = 1.4 and 5.5% corresponds to z 2 = +1.6.
k1 = + z 1
k2 = + z 2
From which
z 2 k1 z 1 k2
1.6(9) (1.4)11
=
z2 z1
1.6 (1.4)

= 9.933
=
=

k2 k1
z2 z1
11 9
= 0.6667
1.6 (1.4)

The original density function is

1
f (k) =
exp
2
0.6667 2
1

k 9.933
0.6667

20-19 From Prob. 20-1, = 122.9 kcycles and = 30.3 kcycles.

z 10 =

x10
x10 122.9
=

30.3

x10 = 122.9 + 30.3z 10

From Table A-10, for 10 percent failure, z 10 = 1.282
x10 = 122.9 + 30.3(1.282)
= 84.1 kcycles Ans.

2 
Ans.

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14

Solutions Manual Instructors Solution Manual to Accompany Mechanical Engineering Design

20-20
x

fx

f x2

f/(Nw)

f (x)

60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210

2
1
3
5
8
12
6
10
8
5
2
3
2
1
0
1
69

120
70
240
450
800
1320
720
1300
1120
750
320
510
360
190
0
210
8480

7200
4900
19 200
40 500
80 000
145 200
86 400
169 000
156 800
112 500
51 200
86 700
64 800
36 100
0
44 100

60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210

0.002 899
0.001 449
0.004 348
0.007 246
0.011 594
0.017 391
0.008 696
0.014 493
0.011 594
0.007 246
0.002 899
0.004 348
0.002 899
0.001 449
0
0.001 449

0.000 399
0.001 206
0.003 009
0.006 204
0.010 567
0.014 871
0.017 292
0.016 612
0.013 185
0.008 647
0.004 685
0.002 097
0.000 776
0.000 237
5.98E-05
1.25E-05

x = 122.8986

sx = 22.887 19

f/(Nw)

f (x)

f/(Nw)

f (x)

55
55
65
65
75
75
85
85
95
95
105
105
115
115
125
125
135
135

0
0.002 899
0.002 899
0.001 449
0.001 449
0.004 348
0.004 348
0.007 246
0.007 246
0.011 594
0.011 594
0.017 391
0.017 391
0.008 696
0.008 696
0.014 493
0.014 493
0.011 594

0.000 214
0.000 214
0.000 711
0.000 711
0.001 951
0.001 951
0.004 425
0.004 425
0.008 292
0.008 292
0.012 839
0.012 839
0.016 423
0.016 423
0.017 357
0.017 357
0.015 157
0.015 157

145
145
155
155
165
165
175
175
185
185
195
195
205
205
215
215

0.011 594
0.007 246
0.007 246
0.002 899
0.002 899
0.004 348
0.004 348
0.002 899
0.002 899
0.001 449
0.001 449
0
0
0.001 499
0.001 499
0

0.010 935
0.010 935
0.006 518
0.006 518
0.003 21
0.003 21
0.001 306
0.001 306
0.000 439
0.000 439
0.000 122
0.000 122
2.8E-05
2.8E-05
5.31E-06
5.31E-06

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15

Chapter 20
f
0.02

Histogram
PDF

0.018
0.016
0.014
0.012
0.01
0.008
0.006
0.004
0.002
0

50

100

150

200

250

20-21
x

fx

f x2

f/(Nw)

f (x)

174
182
190
198
206
214
222
1386

6
9
44
67
53
12
6
197

1044
1638
8360
13 266
10 918
2568
1332
39 126

181 656
298 116
1 588 400
2 626 668
2 249 108
549 552
295 704
7 789 204

0.003 807
0.005 711
0.027 919
0.042 513
0.033 629
0.007 614
0.003 807

0.001 642
0.009 485
0.027 742
0.041 068
0.030 773
0.011 671
0.002 241

x = 198.6091
x
170
170
178
178
186
186
194
194
202
202
210
210
218
218
226
226

f/(Nw)
0
0.003 807
0.003 807
0.005 711
0.005 711
0.027 919
0.027 919
0.042 513
0.042 513
0.033 629
0.033 629
0.007 614
0.007 614
0.003 807
0.003 807
0

sx = 9.695 071

f (x)
0.000 529
0.000 529
0.004 297
0.004 297
0.017 663
0.017 663
0.036 752
0.036 752
0.038 708
0.038 708
0.020 635
0.020 635
0.005 568
0.005 568
0.000 76
0.000 76

f
0.045
0.04

Data
PDF

0.035
0.03
0.025
0.02
0.015
0.01
0.005
0
150

x
170

190

210

230

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Solutions Manual Instructors Solution Manual to Accompany Mechanical Engineering Design

20-22
f

fx

f x2

f/(Nw)

2
6
6
9
19
10
4
2
58

128
408
432
684
1520
840
352
184
4548

8192
27 744
31 104
51 984
121 600
70 560
30 976
16 928
359 088

0.008 621
0.025 862
0.025 862
0.038 793
0.081 897
0.043 103
0.017 241
0.008 621

x
64
68
72
76
80
84
88
92
624

x = 78.413 79

f (x)
0.005 48
0.017 299
0.037 705
0.056 742
0.058 959
0.042 298
0.020 952
0.007 165

sx = 6.572 229

f/(Nw)

f(x)

f/(Nw)

f(x)

62
62
66
66
70
70
74
74
78
78

0
0.008 621
0.008 621
0.025 862
0.025 862
0.025 862
0.025 862
0.038 793
0.038 793
0.081 897

0.002 684
0.002 684
0.010 197
0.010 197
0.026 749
0.026 749
0.048 446
0.048 446
0.060 581
0.060 581

82
82
86
86
90
90
94
94

0.081 897
0.043 103
0.043 103
0.017 241
0.017 241
0.008 621
0.008 621
0

0.052 305
0.052 305
0.031 18
0.031 18
0.012 833
0.012 833
0.003 647
0.003 647

f
0.09

Data
PDF

0.08
0.07
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
x

0
60

70

80

90

20-23
=

4(40)
4 P
=
= 50.93 kpsi
2
d
(12 )

4 P
4(8.5)
=
= 10.82 kpsi
2
d
(12 )

s y = 5.9 kpsi

100

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17

Chapter 20

For no yield, m = S y 0
0 m
m
m m
=
=
m
m
m

m = S y = 27.47 kpsi,

1/2
2
2
= 12.32 kpsi
m = + Sy
z=

z=

27.47
= 2.230
12.32

m
0

From Table A-10, p f = 0.0129

R = 1 p f = 1 0.0129 = 0.987

Ans.

20-24 For a lognormal distribution,


y = ln x ln 1 + C x2


y = ln 1 + C x2

Eq. (20-18)
Eq. (20-19)
From Prob. (20-23)

m = S y = x




 
2
2
y = ln S y ln 1 + C Sy ln ln 1 + C


S y
= ln

1 + C2
1 + C S2y

 

1/2

y = ln 1 + C S2y + ln 1 + C2
 


2
2
= ln 1 + C Sy 1 + C

 
S y 1 + C2
ln
1 + C S2

y
z = =  



ln 1 + C S2y 1 + C2
=

4 P
4(30)
=
= 38.197 kpsi
2
d
(12 )

4 P
4(5.1)
=
= 6.494 kpsi
2
d
(12 )
6.494
= 0.1700
C =
38.197
3.81
C Sy =
= 0.076 81
49.6
=

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Solutions Manual Instructors Solution Manual to Accompany Mechanical Engineering Design

ln


49.6
38.197

1 + 0.170
1 + 0.076 812
2

z =  
 = 1.470
ln (1 + 0.076 812 )(1 + 0.1702 )
From Table A-10
p f = 0.0708
R = 1 p f = 0.929

Ans.

20-25
x

nx

nx 2

93
95
97
99
101
103
105
107
109
111

19
25
38
17
12
10
5
4
4
2
136

1767
2375
3685
1683
1212
1030
525
428
436
222
13 364

164 311
225 625
357 542
166 617
122 412
106 090
55 125
45 796
47 524
24 624
1315 704

x = 13 364/136 = 98.26 kpsi

1/2

1 315 704 13 3642 /136
sx =
= 4.30 kpsi
135
Under normal hypothesis,
z 0.01 = (x0.01 98.26)/4.30
x0.01 = 98.26 + 4.30z 0.01
= 98.26 + 4.30(2.3267)
.
= 88.26 = 88.3 kpsi Ans.
20-26 From Prob. 20-25, x = 98.26 kpsi, and x = 4.30 kpsi.
C x = x /x = 4.30/98.26 = 0.043 76
From Eqs. (20-18) and (20-19),
y = ln(98.26) 0.043 762 /2 = 4.587
!
y = ln(1 + 0.043 762 ) = 0.043 74
For a yield strength exceeded by 99% of the population,
z 0.01 = (ln x0.01 y )/ y

ln x0.01 = y + y z 0.01

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19

Chapter 20

From Table A-10, for 1% failure, z 0.01 = 2.326. Thus,

ln x0.01 = 4.587 + 0.043 74(2.326) = 4.485
x0.01 = 88.7 kpsi Ans.
The normal PDF is given by Eq. (20-14) as




1
1 x 98.26 2
f (x) =
exp
2
4.30
4.30 2

For the lognormal distribution, from Eq. (20-17), defining g(x),




1 ln x 4.587 2
1
g(x) =
exp
2
0.043 74
x(0.043 74) 2
x (kpsi)

f/(Nw)

f (x)

g (x)

x (kpsi)

f/(Nw)

f (x)

g (x)

92
92
94
94
96
96
98
98
100
100
102

0.000 00
0.069 85
0.069 85
0.091 91
0.091 91
0.139 71
0.139 71
0.062 50
0.062 50
0.044 12
0.044 12

0.032 15
0.032 15
0.056 80
0.056 80
0.080 81
0.080 81
0.092 61
0.092 61
0.085 48
0.085 48
0.063 56

0.032 63
0.032 63
0.058 90
0.058 90
0.083 08
0.083 08
0.092 97
0.092 97
0.083 67
0.083 67
0.061 34

102
104
104
106
106
108
108
110
110
112
112

0.036 76
0.036 76
0.018 38
0.018 38
0.014 71
0.014 71
0.014 71
0.014 71
0.007 35
0.007 35
0.000 00

0.063 56
0.038 06
0.038 06
0.018 36
0.018 36
0.007 13
0.007 13
0.002 23
0.002 23
0.000 56
0.000 56

0.061 34
0.037 08
0.037 08
0.018 69
0.018 69
0.007 93
0.007 93
0.002 86
0.002 86
0.000 89
0.000 89

Note: rows are repeated to draw histogram

Histogram
f (x)
g(x)

0.16

Probability density

0.14
0.12
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
90

92

94

96

98

100 102
x (kpsi)

104

106

108

110

112

The normal and lognormal are almost the same. However the data is quite skewed and
perhaps a Weibull distribution should be explored. For a method of establishing the

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Solutions Manual Instructors Solution Manual to Accompany Mechanical Engineering Design

Weibull parameters see Shigley, J. E., and C. R. Mischke, Mechanical Engineering Design,
McGraw-Hill, 5th ed., 1989, Sec. 4-12.
20-27 Let x = (S
fe ) 104
x0 = 79 kpsi, = 86.2 kpsi, b = 2.6
Eq. (20-28)
x = x0 + ( x0 )(1 + 1/b)
x = 79 + (86.2 79)(1 + 1/2.6)
= 79 + 7.2 (1.38)
From Table A-34, (1.38) = 0.888 54
x = 79 + 7.2(0.888 54) = 85.4 kpsi
Eq. (20-29)

Ans.

x = ( x0 )[(1 + 2/b)  2 (1 + 1/b)]1/2

= (86.2 79)[(1 + 2/2.6)  2 (1 + 1/2.6)]1/2
= 7.2[0.923 76 0.888 542 ]1/2
= 2.64 kpsi Ans.
x
2.64
=
= 0.031 Ans.
Cx =
x
85.4

20-28
x = Sut
x0 = 27.7,

= 46.2,

b = 4.38

x = 27.7 + (46.2 27.7)(1 + 1/4.38)

= 27.7 + 18.5 (1.23)
= 27.7 + 18.5(0.910 75)
= 44.55 kpsi Ans.
x = (46.2 27.7)[(1 + 2/4.38)  2 (1 + 1/4.38)]1/2
= 18.5[(1.46)  2 (1.23)]1/2
= 18.5[0.8856 0.910 752 ]1/2
= 4.38 kpsi Ans.
4.38
= 0.098 Ans.
Cx =
44.55
From the Weibull survival equation


 
x x0 b
=1 p
R = exp
x0

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21

Chapter 20

R40


 
x40 x0 b
= 1 p40
= exp
x0


 
40 27.7 4.38
= 0.846
= exp
46.2 27.7

p40 = 1 R40 = 1 0.846 = 0.154 = 15.4%

Ans.

20-29
x = Sut

x0 = 151.9, = 193.6, b = 8
x = 151.9 + (193.6 151.9)(1 + 1/8)
= 151.9 + 41.7 (1.125)
= 151.9 + 41.7(0.941 76)
= 191.2 kpsi Ans.
x = (193.6 151.9)[(1 + 2/8)  2 (1 + 1/8)]1/2
= 41.7[(1.25)  2 (1.125)]1/2
= 41.7[0.906 40 0.941 762 ]1/2
= 5.82 kpsi Ans.
5.82
Cx =
= 0.030
191.2

20-30
x = Sut

x0 = 47.6, = 125.6, b = 11.84

x = 47.6 + (125.6 47.6)(1 + 1/11.84)
x = 47.6 + 78 (1.08)
= 47.6 + 78(0.959 73) = 122.5 kpsi
x = (125.6 47.6)[(1 + 2/11.84)  2 (1 + 1/11.84)]1/2
= 78[(1.08)  2 (1.17)]1/2
= 78(0.959 73 0.936 702 ) 1/2
= 22.4 kpsi

From Prob. 20-28



x x0 b
p = 1 exp
0


 
100 47.6 11.84
= 1 exp
125.6 47.6
= 0.0090 Ans.

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Solutions Manual Instructors Solution Manual to Accompany Mechanical Engineering Design

y = Sy
y0 = 64.1, = 81.0, b = 3.77
y = 64.1 + (81.0 64.1)(1 + 1/3.77)
= 64.1 + 16.9 (1.27)
= 64.1 + 16.9(0.902 50)
= 79.35 kpsi
y = (81 64.1)[(1 + 2/3.77) (1 + 1/3.77)]1/2
y = 16.9[(0.887 57) 0.902 502 ]1/2
= 4.57 kpsi


 
y y0 3.77
p = 1 exp
y0


 
70 64.1 3.77
p = 1 exp
= 0.019 Ans.
81 64.1
20-31 x = Sut = W[122.3, 134.6, 3.64] kpsi, p(x > 120) = 1 = 100% since x0 > 120 kpsi


 
133 122.3 3.64
p(x > 133) = exp
134.6 122.3
= 0.548 = 54.8% Ans.
20-32 Using Eqs. (20-28) and (20-29) and Table A-34,
n = n 0 + ( n 0 )(1 + 1/b) = 36.9 + (133.6 36.9)(1 + 1/2.66) = 122.85 kcycles
n = ( n 0 )[(1 + 2/b)  2 (1 + 1/b)] = 34.79 kcycles
For the Weibull density function, Eq. (2-27),



2.661
2.66 
n 36.9
2.66
n 36.9
exp
f W (n) =
133.6 36.9 133.6 36.9
133.6 36.9
For the lognormal distribution, Eqs. (20-18) and (20-19) give,
y = ln(122.85) (34.79/122.85) 2 /2 = 4.771

y = [1 + (34.79/122.85) 2 ] = 0.2778
From Eq. (20-17), the lognormal PDF is

1
f L N (n) =
exp
2
0.2778 n 2
1

ln n 4.771
0.2778

We form a table of densities f W (n) and f L N (n) and plot.

2 

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23

Chapter 20

n (kcycles)

f W (n)

f L N (n)

40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220

9.1E-05
0.000 991
0.002 498
0.004 380
0.006 401
0.008 301
0.009 822
0.010 750
0.010 965
0.010 459
0.009 346
0.007 827
0.006 139
0.004 507
0.003 092
0.001 979
0.001 180
0.000 654
0.000 336

1.82E-05
0.000 241
0.001 233
0.003 501
0.006 739
0.009 913
0.012 022
0.012 644
0.011 947
0.010 399
0.008 492
0.006 597
0.004 926
0.003 564
0.002 515
0.001 739
0.001 184
0.000 795
0.000 529

f (n)
0.014

LN
W

0.012
0.010
0.008
0.006
0.004
0.002
0

50

100

150

200

250

n, kcycles

The Weibull L10 life comes from Eq. (20-26) with a reliability of R = 0.90. Thus,
n 0.10 = 36.9 + (133 36.9)[ln(1/0.90)]1/2.66 = 78.1 kcycles Ans.
The lognormal L10 life comes from the definition of the z variable. That is,
ln n 0 = y + y z

or n 0 = exp( y + y z)

From Table A-10, for R = 0.90, z = 1.282. Thus,

n 0 = exp[4.771 + 0.2778(1.282)] = 82.7 kcycles Ans.

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Solutions Manual Instructors Solution Manual to Accompany Mechanical Engineering Design

20-33 Form a table

x
L(105)

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

3.05
3.55
4.05
4.55
5.05
5.55
6.05
6.55
7.05
7.55
8.05
8.55
9.05
9.55
10.05

fi

f i x(10 )

3
7
11
16
21
13
13
6
2
0
4
3
0
0
1
100

9.15
24.85
44.55
72.80
106.05
72.15
78.65
39.30
14.10
0
32.20
25.65
0
0
10.05
529.50

10

f i x (10

27.9075
88.2175
180.4275
331.24
535.5525
400.4325
475.8325
257.415
99.405
0
259.21
219.3075
0
0
101.0025
2975.95

g(x)
(105 )
0.0557
0.1474
0.2514
0.3168
0.3216
0.2789
0.2151
0.1517
0.1000
0.0625
0.0375
0.0218
0.0124
0.0069
0.0038

x = 529.5(105 )/100 = 5.295(105 ) cycles Ans.

1/2


2975.95(1010 ) [529.5(105 )]2 /100
sx =
100 1
= 1.319(105 ) cycles Ans.
C x = s/x = 1.319/5.295 = 0.249
y = ln 5.295(105 ) 0.2492 /2 = 13.149
!
y = ln(1 + 0.2492 ) = 0.245



1 ln x y 2
1
g(x) =
exp
2
y
x y 2



1.628
1 ln x 13.149 2
g(x) =
exp
x
2
0.245

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25

Chapter 20

105 g(x)
0.5

Superposed
histogram
and PDF

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

3.05(105)

10.05(105)
x, cycles

20-34
Eq. (20-28)

Eq. (20-29)

x = Su = W[70.3, 84.4, 2.01]

x = 70.3 + (84.4 70.3)(1 + 1/2.01)
= 70.3 + (84.4 70.3)(1.498)
= 70.3 + (84.4 70.3)0.886 17
= 82.8 kpsi Ans.
x = (84.4 70.3)[(1 + 2/2.01)  2 (1 + 1/2.01)]1/2
x = 14.1[0.997 91 0.886 172 ]1/2
= 6.502 kpsi
Cx =

6.502
= 0.079 Ans.
82.8

20-35 Take the Weibull equation for the standard deviation

x = ( x0 )[(1 + 2/b)  2 (1 + 1/b)]1/2
and the mean equation solved for x x0
x x0 = ( x0 )(1 + 1/b)
Dividing the first by the second,
x
[(1 + 2/b)  2 (1 + 1/b)]1/2
=
x x0
(1 + 1/b)


4.2
(1 + 2/b)
R = 0.2763
=

1
=
49 33.8
 2 (1 + 1/b)

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Solutions Manual Instructors Solution Manual to Accompany Mechanical Engineering Design

Make a table and solve for b iteratively

b
3
4
4.1

1 + 2/b 1 + 1/b (1 + 2/b) (1 + 1/b)

1.67
1.5
1.49

1.33
1.25
1.24

0.903 30
0.886 23
0.885 95

0.893 38
0.906 40
0.908 52

0.363
0.280
0.271

.
b = 4.068 Using MathCad Ans.
x x0
49 33.8
= x0 +
= 33.8 +
(1 + 1/b)
(1 + 1/4.068)
= 49.8 kpsi Ans.
20-36

x = S y = W[34.7, 39, 2.93] kpsi

x = 34.7 + (39 34.7)(1 + 1/2.93)
= 34.7 + 4.3(1.34)
= 34.7 + 4.3(0.892 22) = 38.5 kpsi
x = (39 34.7)[(1 + 2/2.93)  2 (1 + 1/2.93)]1/2
= 4.3[(1.68)  2 (1.34)]1/2
= 4.3[0.905 00 0.892 222 ]1/2
= 1.42 kpsi Ans.
C x = 1.42/38.5 = 0.037 Ans.

20-37
x (Mrev)
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Sum 78

fx

f x2

11
22
38
57
31
19
15
12
11
9
7
5
237

11
44
114
228
155
114
105
96
99
90
77
60
1193

11
88
342
912
775
684
735
768
891
900
847
720
7673

x = 1193(106 )/237 = 5.034(106 ) cycles


7673(1012 ) [1193(106 )]2 /237
x =
= 2.658(106 ) cycles
237 1
C x = 2.658/5.034 = 0.528

12/06/2006

18:53

Page 27

FIRST PAGES

27

Chapter 20

From Eqs. (20-18) and (20-19),

y = ln[5.034(106 )] 0.5282 /2 = 15.292
!
y = ln(1 + 0.5282 ) = 0.496
From Eq. (20-17), defining g(x),

1
g (x) =
exp
2
x(0.496) 2
1

x (Mrev)

f/(Nw)

g (x) (106 )

0.5
0.5
1.5
1.5
2.5
2.5
3.5
3.5
4.5
4.5
5.5
5.5
6.5
6.5
7.5
7.5
8.5
8.5
9.5
9.5
10.5
10.5
11.5
11.5
12.5
12.5

0.000 00
0.046 41
0.046 41
0.092 83
0.092 83
0.160 34
0.160 34
0.240 51
0.240 51
0.130 80
0.130 80
0.080 17
0.080 17
0.063 29
0.063 29
0.050 63
0.050 63
0.046 41
0.046 41
0.037 97
0.037 97
0.029 54
0.029 54
0.021 10
0.021 10
0.000 00

0.000 11
0.000 11
0.052 04
0.052 04
0.169 92
0.169 92
0.207 54
0.207 54
0.178 48
0.178 48
0.131 58
0.131 58
0.090 11
0.090 11
0.059 53
0.059 53
0.038 69
0.038 69
0.025 01
0.025 01
0.016 18
0.016 18
0.010 51
0.010 51
0.006 87
0.006 87

z=

ln x y
y

ln x 15.292
0.496

2 

Histogram
PDF

0.25

0.2

g(x)(106)

budynas_SM_ch20.qxd

0.15

0.1

0.05

6
x, Mrev

ln x = y + y z = 15.292 + 0.496z

L10 life, where 10% of bearings fail, from Table A-10, z = 1.282. Thus,
ln x = 15.292 + 0.496(1.282) = 14.66
x = 2.32 106 rev

Ans.

10

12