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PROBABILITY THEORY TUTORIALS (Week 1 Week 3)

TUTORIAL 1 1. In rolling two dice, (a) give the size of the sample space (i.e. number of outcomes) for the following experiments (i) noting the sum of the two dice (ii) noting the pair of values of the two dice (iii) noting the product of the two dice (b) which experiment consists of equally likely outcome? ( c) for experiment (ii) list all possible outcomes for the following, S: Sample space, A: Faces are equal, B: Sum of faces exceeds 9, C: Sum of faces equals 7, D: Sum of faces is even. (d) are the events E: Sum divisibe by 3 and F: Sum divisible by 4 mutually exclusive?

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Three boxes contains 5 chips each, numbered from 1 to 5 and one chip is drawn from each box, Find the probability of the event E that the sum of the numbers on the drawn chips is greater than 4 (hint: working with the compliment). A pressure control apparatus contains 4 ICs. The apparatus will not work unless all ICs are operative. If the probability of failure of each IC in one year is 0.03, what is the corresponding probability of failure of the apparatus? Suppose that in a production of fusses the fraction of defective fusses has been constant at 2% over a long time, and that this process is controlled every half hour by drawing and inspecting two fusses just produced (assuming the population of fusses to be sampled is huge). Find the probability of (a) getting no defectives, (b) 1 defective, (c) 2 defectives. What is the sum of these probabilities? A batch of 100 iron rods consists of 25 oversized rods, 25 under sized rods, and 50 rods of desired length. If two rods are drawn at random without replacement, what is the probability of obtaining (a) two rods of the desired length, (b) one of the desired length, (c) none of the desired length, (d) two undersized rods? Pascal was asked by his friend the Knight of Mr, what was his chance to win, if he played the simple following game: we throw a pair of dice n times and we win if we get at least one pair of six.

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The Knight wanted to know how many times (n) he should throw the pair of dices to have more chance to win than too loose Can you, as Pascal, answer him? 7. A box has three drawers. One drawer contains 2 gold coins, one contains 2 silver coins and one contains 1 gold coin and 1 silver coin. A drawer is selected at random and a coin is taken out at random from the drawer. Given that the coin is gold, what is the probability that the drawer contains 2 gold coin?

TUTORIAL 2
8. (Examination Question S2 2009/2010) Three soldiers I, II and III independently fire a shot each at a helicopter at the same time. The probabilities that soldiers I, II and III hit the target (the helicopter) are 0.4, 0.5 and 0.7 respectively.The chance that the helicopter crashes given that it is hit by only one shot (from any of the three soldiers) is 20%. The chance that it crashes given that it is hit by only two shots is 60%. If all three shots hit the target, the helicopter will definitely crash (chance of crashing is 100%). Assume that helicopter does not crash if it is not hit by any bullet. Find the probability that the helicopter crashes after the independent shootings by the three soldiers. [Hint. First, find P(helicopter hit by n shots) (n=1,2,3).] 9. A poker player receives 5 cards from a set of 52 cards. What is the probability that he has in his hand (i) four aces, and (ii) at least one king? The letters making up the word PROBABILITIES are put in a box. Three letters are chosen at random from the box. What is the probability of choosing at least two letters which are the same? Let X represents the difference between the number of heads and the number of tails obtained when a fair coins is tossed n times. What are the possible values of X when (i) n=10, (ii) n=1000? Two balls are chosen randomly from a bag containing 8 white, 4 black, and 2 orange balls. Suppose that we win $2 for each black ball selected and we lose $1 for each white ball selected (no winning or loss for a selected orange ball!). Let X denote our winnings. (a) What are the possible values of X? (b) What are the probabilities associated with these possible values? (c) What is the mean value of X (winning)? A person tosses a fair coin until a tail appears the first time. If the tails appears on the nth flip, the person wins 100n dollars (ie, tail on the 1st flip, the person wins

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100 dollars and on the 2nd flip (the 1st flip must be head!), he wins 200 dollars ). Would you be willing to pay 150 dollars to play this game once and explain why? (Hint: n 2 n = 2 )
n =1

TUTORIAL 3
14. Let f ( x ) = k x 2 if 0 x 1 and 0 otherwise. Find (i) the value k, (ii) the values c1 and c2 such that P( X c1 ) = 0. 1 and P( X c2 ) = 0. 9 . Suppose that the duration in minutes of long distance telephone conversations follows an exponential density function ;

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1 x/5 e ( x > 0) 5 Determine the mean and the variance 2 and the probability P( X + 3 ) . f ( x) =
16. If the probability of hitting a target is 10% and 10 shots are fired independently, what is the probability that the target will be hit (i) at least once? (ii) at least twice? A certain airline company, having observed that 5% of the persons making reservations on a flight do not show up for the flight, sells 100 seats on a plane that has only 98 seats. What is the probability that there will be a seat available every person who shows up for the flight? Suppose that 3% of bolts made by a machine are defective, the defectives occurring at random during production. If the bolts are packaged 50 per box, what is Poisons approximation of the probability that a given box will contain x = 0, 1,L, 5 defectives? Suppose that the suicide rate in a certain country is four suicides per one million inhabitants per month. Find the probability that in a certain town of the country of population 500,000 there will be at most four suicides in a month. Let X be normal with mean 3.6 and variance 0.01. (a) Find P(X > 5) (b) Find c such that: (i) P( X c) = 50%, (ii) P ( X > c) = 10%, (iii) P(3.6 c X 3.6 + c) = 99.9%

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Answers to probability:
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1.(a) (i)11 (ii)36 (iii)18 (b) only experiment (ii) has equally likely outcome (c) The 36 outcomes are S = {( 1, 1),( 1, 2),( 2, 1),( 2, 2),( 2, 3),L,( 6, 6 )}, A = {( 1, 1),( 2, 2),( 3, 3),( 4, 4),( 5, 5),( 6 , 6 )} , B = {( 4, 6 ),( 5, 5),( 5, 6 ),( 6 , 4),( 6, 5),( 6, 6 )}, C = {( 1, 6 ), ( 2, 5), ( 3, 4), ( 4, 3), ( 5, 2), ( 6 , 1)}, D = {( 1, 1),( 1, 3),( 1, 5 ),( 2, 2), ( 2, 4),( 2, 6 ),( 3, 1), ( 3, 3),( 3, 5 ),( 4, 2),( 4, 4), ( 4, 6 ), ( 5, 1),( 5, 3),( 5, 5 ), ( 6 , 2), ( 6 , 4), ( 6 , 6 )} (d) No. E = {(1,2), (1,5), (2,1), (2,4), (3,3), (3,6), (4,2), (4,5), (5,1), (5,4), (6,6)} F = {(1,3), (2,2), (2,6), (3,1), (3,5), (4,4), (5,3), (6,6)} , (6,6) is the common element. 2. 1 4 / 125 . 3. 1 ( 0. 97 ) 4 = 11. 5% . 4(a) 0. 98 2 = 96. 04% , (b) 2 0. 98 0. 02 = 3. 92% , (c) 0. 022 = 0. 04%, the sum is 1.

50 49 50 50 50 50 50 49 + = 50. 5% , (c) = 24. 75% , (b) = 24. 75% , 100 99 100 99 100 99 100 99 25 24 (d) = 6. 06% . 100 99
5.(a) 6. n 25 , 7. 2/3 8. 0.458

9. (i) 48 / 2,598,960 = 0.0018% !!, (ii) 1 1,712,304 / 2,598,960 = 34% 10. 42/286 or 21/143 11 .(a)X=0, 1, 2, ., 10. (b) 1000, -998, -996, .. 998, 1000

12.(a)X=-2, -1, 0, 1, 2, 4 (b)P(X=-2)=0.3077, P(X=-1)=0.1758, P(X=0)=0.01099 P(X=1)=0.3516, P(X=2)=0.0879, P(X=4)=0.0659 (c)The mean value is 0. 13. The mean of the winning is 200 dollars. Yes, one would like to play the game by paying 150 dollars and statistically, one would win if he carrys on playing the game for long time. 14. k = 3, c1 = 0. 464, c2 = 0. 965 . 15. = 5 , 2 = 25 , P( X + 3 ) = P( X 20 ) = 1 e 4 = 98. 17% .

10 16. (i) P = 1 0. 9 10 = 65% , (ii) P = 1 0.9 10 0.1 0.9 9 = 26 .39% . 1 17.

n = 100 , p = 0.95, 100 100 P ( X 98 ) = 1 P ( X = 99 ) P ( X = 100 ) = 1 0.95 99 0.05 0.95 100 = 96 .3% 99 100

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50 1.5 x 1.5 x 50 x e 18. = np = 50 0.03 = 1.5, f ( x ) = 0.03 0.97 . x! x P(X=0)=0.223, P(X=1)=0.3347, P(X=2)=0.2510, P(X=3)=0.1255, P(X=4)=0.0471, P(X=5)=0.0141.

19. p = 4 10 6 , n = 500 ,000 , = np = 2,


20 21 2 2 2 3 2 4 P ( X 4) = e 2 + + + + = 7 e 2 = 9473 . % 0 ! 1 ! 2 ! 3 ! 4! This problem can also be approximated by normal distribution

20.(a) ~0% (b)(i) c=3.6, (ii) c=3.7282, (iii) c=0.3291.

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