Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Bespoke Investment Group LLC 105 Calvert Street Harrison, NY 10528 914-315-1248
Copyright 2012, Bespoke Investment Group, LLC. Bespoke Investment Group, LLC believes all information contained in this report to be accurate, but we do not guarantee its accuracy. None of the information in this report or any opinions expressed constitutes a solicitation of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.
Introduction Prognostications Valuation Sentiment Washington Seasonality Sector Weightings & Technicals Economic Indicators Economic Cycles Housing Yield Curve Dollar & Stocks Credit Markets Commodities International The Year in Headlines
Where will 2013 pan out? We expect it to be somewhere in between, and we see the S&P 500 trading at or near a level of 1,600 in the year ahead. In terms of percentages, this works out to a gain of around 13%. 13% in 13 we like the sound of that. Happy New Year!
+13% YTD
Dec.
1450 1400
1350 1300
4.36% 4.06% 3.13% -0.75% -6.26% 3.96% 1.26% 1.98% 2.42% -1.97% 0.28% 0.42%
1250 8
January February March April May June July August Sept. October Nov. Dec.
6 4 2 0 -2
Daily % Change
-4
Average % Change by Day of Week 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1
-0.01 -0.03 0.04 Monday Tuesday 0.10 Wednesday Thursday 0.13 Friday
14.47%
12.77%
9.94%
7.84%
14.74%
13.22%
11.22%
13.43%
11.18%
18.27%
P/E Ratio (Lowest 14.39% to Highest) Dividend Yield (Highest to Lowest)* Short Interest (Lowest to Highest)
-0.32%
14.75%
11.75%
12.26%
13.08%
10.69%
12.58%
8.64%
29.25%
-0.63%
8.51%
15.19%
14.54%
11.12%
10.23%
13.43%
14.49%
17.82%
16.75%
7.75%
18.73%
13.50%
12.50%
16.85%
12.16%
12.49%
8.56%
7.80%
16.74%
14.92%
10.99%
10.26%
11.25%
17.11%
6.75%
21.75%
13.37%
4.51%
16.18%
Institutional Ownership (Most 12.26% to Least) International 0.21% Revenues (Most to Least)** % Chg in 2011 (Best to Worst)
9.72%
8.57%
16.86%
14.61%
25.45%
16.16%
8.91%
7.21%
7.39%
12.16%
12.43%
11.01%
23.71%
14.87%
14.66%
11.58%
11.76%
13.10%
12.32%
9.30%
11.00%
14.07%
13.72%
10.04%
16.89%
11.15%
9.92%
17.61%
*Decile 10 of dividend yield category is made up of all stocks that pay no dividend. **Decile 10 of international revenues category is made up of all stocks that have no international revenues.
-40%+
1907: -37.7 2008: -33.8 1930: -33.7 1920: -32.9 1937: -32.8 1914: -30.6 -30%+
1966: -18.9 1910: -17.8 1977: -17.2 1929: -17.1 2002: -16.7 1973: -16.5 1941: -15.3 1969: -15.1 1957: -12.7 1940: -12.7 1962: -10.8 1913: -10.3 -10%+
1960: -9.3 1981: -9.2 1901: -8.7 1946: -8.1 2001: -7.1 2000: -6.2 1990: -4.3 1916: -4.2 1953: -3.8 1984: -3.7 1978: -3.1 1939: -2.9 1923: -2.7 1906: -2.3 1948: -2.1 2005: -0.6 1902: -0.4 -0%-10%
1952: 8.4 1912: 7.7 1942: 7.6 2012: 7.1 2007: 6.4 1971: 6.1 2011: 5.2 1970: 4.8 1968: 4.3 1979: 4.2 1992: 4.2 1934: 4.1 1926: 4.1 2004: 3.1 1956: 2.3 1987: 2.3 1947: 2.2 1994: 2.1 1911: 0.2 0%-10%
1938: 28.1 1927: 27.7 1985: 27.7 1989: 27.0 1945: 26.6 1924: 26.2 1996: 26.0 1925: 25.4 2003: 25.3 1999: 25.2 1936: 24.8 1997: 22.6 1986: 22.6 1922: 21.5 1955: 20.8 1991: 20.3 1983: 20.3 2009: 20.2 20%+
1935: 38.5 1975: 38.3 1905: 37.8 1958: 34.0 1995: 33.5 1919: 30.5 30%+
1928: 49.5 1908: 46.6 1954: 44.0 1915: 81.5 1904: 42.6 1933: 66.7 40%+ 50%+
40 30 20 10 0 -0.5 -10 -20 -30 -23.1 -50%+ -40%+ -30%+ -20%+ -10%+ -0%-10% 0%-10% 10%+ 20%+ 30%+ 40%+ 50%+ -6.5 4.2 6.2 5.4 5.8 3.7 22.7 24.6
10
Citigroup Bank of America Oppenheimer JPMorgan Goldman Sachs Bank of Montreal HSBC Credit Suisse Average Weeden Barclays Stifel Nicolaus Morgan Stanley UBS Wells Fargo -1.3 -5
1.8 1.2
14.7 13.6 12.6 12.2 11.9 11.9 10.8 10.1 8.8 8.3 8.3 6.5
0 5 10 15 2013 % Change
20
11
12
Yearly
2.40 1.80 2.20 2.00
2.80
5.0
4.10
Quarterly
3.10
GDP
-3.10
0.0 Q4 11 Q1 12 Q2 12 Q3 12 Q4 12 Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q4 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q1 14 Q1 14
Yearly
3.17 2.10 1.90 2.10
5.0 4.0
3.30 2.83 1.90
Quarterly
CPI
CPI
-1.0
-0.35
0.0
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Yearly
9.30 9.60
9.00
9.0
8.10 7.30
8.70
Quarterly
8.07
Unemp. Rate
Unemp. Rate
7.70
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
13
Q3 13
Q3 13
Yearly
3.84 3.30 2.21
Yield
Yield
1.88
1.66
2.17
Quarterly
2.21 2.34 2.17 1.88 1.65 1.63 1.66 1.77 2.02 1.88
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13
0.43
2-Year Treasury Yield Consensus Economist Estimates 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0
3.05 0.77 1.14 0.60 0.24 0.26 0.43 4.40 4.81
Yearly
0.6 0.5
Quarterly
0.51
Yield
Yield
0.4 0.3
0.2 0.1
0.24
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
Q4 13 Q4 13
Yearly
0.4 0.3
Quarterly
0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25
Yield
Yield
4.0
0.2 0.1
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
14
Q1 14
Q1 14
Q1 14
Yearly
1.40 1.32 1.18
1.3 1.3
1.33 1.30
Quarterly
1.29 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.27 1.27 1.27
USD/EUR
USD/EUR
1.46
Q4 11
Q1 12
Q2 12
Q3 12
Q4 12
Q1 13
Q2 13
Q3 13
15
Q4 13
25
15
16
25
15
With regards to the S&P 500s book value, the index is currently trading at 2.24 times its book value of $640. Since 1978, the average P/B ratio has been 2.42. Using the average valuation, the price target for the S&P 500 would be 1,547 assuming no change in book value in 2013.
S&P 500 Trailing P/E Ratio: 1929 - 2012
6 5 4 3 2 1 0 '29 '39 '49 '59 '69 '79 '89 '99 '09 P/B: 2.24 Long Term Average: 2.42
17
12
Although the S&P 500s dividend yield is low on an absolute basis, relative to the alternatives, it is very attractive. At the end of 2011, the S&P 500 was yielding 25% more than the 10-Year US Treasury. Outside of the credit crisis, the last time the S&P 500 yielded more than the 10Year Treasury was before 1960. In order for the dividend yield to get back to its historical average relative to US Treasuries, either the 10-Year yield would have to rise back above 1.9%, the S&P 500 would have to rally to 1,600, or you would have to see some combination of the two.
S&P 500 Dividend Yield Relative to Treasuries: 1929 - 2012
6
5 4 3 2 1 0 '29 '39
'49
'59
'69
'79
'89
'99
'09
18
12
Although the S&P 500s earnings yield is modestly below average, relative to an alternative of long-term US Treasuries, the yield looks considerably more attractive. Going back to 1929, the S&P 500s earnings yield has averaged twice the yield of the 10-year US Treasury. Currently, the S&P 500s yield is more than four times the yield on the 10-year. So to get to an average premium, you would need to see some combination of earnings declining, the S&P 500 rising, and yields rising.
19
Obviously with interest rates at record low levels, the earnings yield of the S&P 500 is going to be high relative to bond yields. Therefore it is unlikely that these indicators will revert to their historical averages as long as interest rates remain low. That being said, what we said last year at this time is just as applicable today. With earnings expected to grow by 11% in 2013, there is significant room for the market to run and still remain fairly valued. Looking at the chart above, it is amazing to see how investor sentiment has shifted in the last decade. From 1980, through 2010, equities traded at a premium to corporate bonds, but since 2010 investors have preferred bonds to stocks. Eventually that sentiment will reverse back to equities over bonds, but historically these shifts have occurred over decades as opposed to months or years.
20
20
3.4 2.9 2 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.8 1.2 1 0.5 0 30s 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 201030s 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s 90s 00s 20101.3 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.4
2 1 0
21
Looking at individual sectors, seven have seen a compression in their P/E ratios over the last six years, while just three (Telecom Services, Energy, and Materials) have seen an expansion in their P/E ratios. Technology has seen the largest compression in its P/E ratio. In January 2007, the sector had the highest P/E ratio at a level of 23.3. Today, the sectors P/E ratio has declined to 15.1 and now has the fifth lowest P/E ratio of the ten sectors.
S&P 500 Sector P/E Ratios: 2007 - 2012
25 20 15 10 5 0 Cons Discret. Telecom Svcs Industrials Health Care Technology Cons Staples Financials Materials Utilities Energy 23.3 21.0 20.6
Technology, Health Care, and Energy have seen the largest move down in the rankings, while Utilities and Consumer Staples have seen the biggest move up in the rankings.
Telecom Svcs
Cons Discret.
Cons Staples
Health Care
Technology
Industrials
Financials
Materials
Utilities
24 20 16 12 8 4 0
15.6
15.4
15.1
14.4
13.8
12.3
11.8
22
Energy
In terms of sector rankings, besides the large decline in the rank of Financials from highest yield in January 2007 to third lowest now, there has not been much in the way of big moves. As shown, besides Financials, only two other sectors have seen their ranking move by more than one place (Consumer Staples and Energy).
S&P 500 Sector Dividend Yields: 2000 - 2011
4.0 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.6
0.0
Technology saw the largest increase in its yield but is still the lowest yielding of the ten sectors. That being said, the sectors yield is now only 50 basis points below the yield of the Financial sector.
Energy
Telecom Svcs
Cons Discret.
Industrials
Telecom Svcs
Cons Staples
Health Care
Health Care
Cons Discret.
Cons Staples
5.0 4.0
2.6
2.4
2.2
Energy
2.1
1.9
1.6
1.4
23
Technology
Industrials
Financials
Materials
Utilities
Technology
Financials
Materials
Utilities
24
25
2,000
1,600
1,200
800 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
26
160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12
27
The chart below overlays our market and economic sentiment indices since the start of 2009. The two key takeaways are that sentiment on both fronts remains depressed, and the two indices track each other very closely. The only time they diverged meaningfully was in the late Summer of 2012, when market sentiment improved as economic sentiment was depressed. Not long after the S&P 500 peaked in mid September and sold off nearly 10%. If youre a contrarian, current sentiment towards both the market and the economy should have you gobbling up stocks like turkey on Thanksgiving!
Market vs Economic Sentiment: 2009 - 2012
160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60% 40% 1/09 Market Sentiment (Left Axis) Economic Sentiment (Right Axis)
7/09
1/10
7/10
1/11
7/11
1/12
7/12
28
6.3%
1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12
5.8
5.0 1/07 6.0 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12
S&P 500 Short Interest (Percentage of Float): 2007 6.25 5.75 5.25 4.75 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0
3.9%
7.1%
1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12
29
As if the Federal total wasnt already large enough, when you add up government spending from all sources as a percent of GDP, you get to a level of 34.8%. This represents an increase of 72.6% from the 1947 level of 20.15%. For better or worse, government is becoming a larger share of the US economy. At the rate things are going, this trend will only continue as government spending balloons with increased Social Security and Medicare spending. Also, if interest rates start to rise, the cost of servicing the debt load will surge.
Total Government Spending (Percent of GDP): 1947 - 2012
34.79
30
25
20
15 '47 '52 '57 '62 '67 '72 '77 '82 '87 '92 '97 '02 '07 '12
30
-81.1
Start 22.8 9/14/01 3/4/09 0.5 13.4 3/4/13 17.4 3/4/21 8/2/23 3/4/29 3/4/33 10.3 4/12/45 1/20/53 12.2 1/20/61 21.9 11/22/63 9.5 1/20/69 23.8 8/9/74 1/20/77 0.3 26.7 1/20/81 1/20/89 1/20/93 1/20/01 2.0 1/20/09
0
96.3
246.5
72.4
-150
-100
*President in Office Less Than 1,368 Years. Performance Shown measures, President's total time in office. = Republicans = Democrats
31
32
DJIA Performance (%) 2nd Term 2nd Year 3rd Year 14.9 -2.4 34.1 9.8 20.5 25.5 23.2 11.0
1/19/38
1/19/39
1/19/40
1/19/41
1/18/58
1/18/59
1/18/60
1/18/61
33
-3.8 42.9
17.1 85.7
5.2 50.0
-10.5 16.7
10.2 42.9
Of the seven US Presidents highlighted above, George W. Bush is the only one who was reelected after the market declined during his first term in office (-0.4%). For all seven Presidents, the DJIA averaged a gain of 67% during their 1st term in office. Although voters were happy to re-elect these Presidents based on their 1st term market returns, a sense of buyers remorse most certainly followed suit. During the first year of their second terms, the DJIA has averaged a decline of 3.8% with positive returns just 43% of the time.
Year two for two-termers has tended to see a rebound, as the DJIAs average return has been +17%. In fact, Richard Nixon, who resigned during year two of his 2nd term, was the only one who saw a decline during year two of his 2nd term. While year three of a second term averages a gain of 5.2%, year four has been a disaster. For the six Presidents who made it to year four of their second term (Nixon resigned), the DJIA averaged a decline of 10.4% with positive returns just 17% of the time. Only Reagan saw a gain during his final year in office. Overall, the DJIA has averaged a gain of just 10.2% during the second term of US Presidents who were re-elected to office. Even in this low rate environment, an annualized return of less than 2.5% is hardly anything to get excited about.
34
3/3/18
3/3/19
3/3/20
3/3/21
1/19/38
1/19/39
1/19/40
1/19/41
1/19/74
1/19/75
1/19/76
1/19/77
20 0 1/18/85
-10 1/18/86 1/18/87 1/18/88 1/18/89 -20 1/17/97 1/17/98 1/17/99 1/17/00 1/17/01
1/19/06
1/19/07
1/19/08
1/19/09
35
= Current Makeup = Makeup With Best Returns for Sector = Makeup With Worst Returns for Sector
36
The last two months of 2012 have been a period where the investment community focused more on Washington than ever before. If there is a smooth resolution to the fiscal cliff early in 2013, the investment community may breathe a big sigh of relief, but based on the experience of the last few years, and the governments increasingly large role in the economy, we would expect events in Washington to continue to play an abnormally large role in the markets behavior. With respect to Washington, the short term issue is the resolution of the fiscal cliff. On a longer term basis, investors need to monitor governments share of the economy as well as the tendency for problems to arise as second term administrations have tended to lose focus.
37
Parties Controlling Office and Year/Year S&P 500 Performance: 1961 - 2012
JFK/LBJ Johnson Nixon Nixon/Ford Carter Reagan Reagan Bush Clinton Clinton Bush Bush Obama 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 D D D D R R R R D D R R R R R R D D D D R R R R D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R D D D D R R R D R R D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D D R R R R R R D D R
38
'69 '73 '77 '81 '85 '89 '93
S&P 500 Cons Discret. Cons Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Materials Technology Telecom Svcs Transports Utilities
1961 8.6 22.2 5.3 32.7 30.2 -1.4 7.3 12.8 -2.2 9.2 7.8 29.2
1963 34.3 70.7 21.7 44.8 16.0 33.4 35.8 34.1 30.8 19.3 45.6 20.1
1965 -5.2 -6.1 -4.2 -11.3 -11.3 27.5 -4.9 -29.4 40.3 -16.4 -1.2 -12.2
1967 29.3 111.0 42.9 33.4 38.7 29.3 32.6 15.4 72.0 -1.6 33.8 0.7
1969 -11.3 -8.4 13.8 -18.6 -5.7 16.0 -10.7 -19.1 -4.4 -9.8 -36.8 -11.2
1971 28.1 27.6 37.7 16.8 34.8 52.7 30.7 38.1 33.3 7.0 32.4 -1.9
1973 -41.9 -65.0 -43.8 -24.6 -29.1 -26.4 -42.0 -25.9 -50.1 -20.8 -36.9 -42.5
1975 56.7 115.2 48.3 55.1 18.1 -4.3 56.2 52.5 55.0 46.4 65.2 57.6
1977 -10.6 -10.6 -1.6 -4.2 -19.6 -3.4 -10.3 -30.2 6.9 -5.1 -12.9 -9.4
1979 41.3 19.7 -1.8 117.4 16.9 33.0 44.1 19.9 -1.1 -19.8 92.7 16.5
1981 3.6 74.6 39.4 -34.9 29.4 13.6 2.1 -7.0 20.7 24.0 12.6 4.4
1983 18.9 26.6 21.1 38.4 12.2 16.0 18.2 9.7 21.8 24.2 24.5 25.2
1985 44.8 68.1 78.1 37.3 55.6 88.2 44.8 98.2 10.0 44.7 44.6 37.8
1987 14.7 9.7 39.4 21.0 -13.2 22.4 19.0 17.1 2.4 13.1 20.2 -9.6
1989 18.9 10.2 68.4 28.8 -7.3 67.5 10.7 3.9 -13.0 26.0 -6.1 16.5
1991 31.9 62.4 42.6 0.0 72.2 23.0 34.5 30.3 7.2 19.8 59.2 16.4
1993 5.4 1.7 0.1 10.7 0.9 -1.9 10.3 14.2 43.5 1.5 0.4 -10.7
1995 61.3 30.7 67.8 53.4 97.3 83.5 66.8 33.0 98.8 34.3 55.0 25.4
1997 65.9 84.7 48.6 19.6 59.3 101.6 36.6 -2.2 127.6 104.7 39.6 30.3
1999 7.4 -1.7 -4.5 31.3 26.3 19.8 25.4 1.2 5.3 -29.2 -6.4 32.2
2001 -33.4 -23.0 -14.1 -24.0 -25.2 -30.3 -32.6 -6.8 -53.8 -44.7 -21.6 -54.7
2003 37.7 52.6 15.8 57.6 38.5 13.6 50.4 49.3 49.7 19.8 64.4 44.8
2005 17.0 8.6 13.3 57.8 20.5 10.9 11.4 18.2 8.1 20.2 20.1 31.8
2007 -36.3 -44.1 -8.1 -15.2 -65.9 -20.4 -35.8 -36.5 -34.9 -28.0 -22.4 -20.7
2009 39.2 74.5 23.1 31.2 27.2 17.9 45.3 74.1 74.5 15.3 54.9 7.7
2011 12.0 24.8 18.2 4.0 1.6 26.1 7.8 -2.0 12.9 12.6 2.0 10.5
60
'61
'65
-6%
In each months NFIB survey, small business owners are NFIB Single Most Important Problem asked what the single most important problem they Problem Percent Poor Sales 23 face is. In this months survey, Poor Sales and Taxes Taxes 23 were tied at the top of the list with 23%. Third on the Govt Requirements & Red Tape 18 7 list, though, at 18%, was Government Requirements Cost/Availability of Insurance Inflation 6 and Red Tape. The impact of Hurricane Sandy has been Quality of Labor 6 5 cited as a reason for Poor Sales as the number one Competition From Big Businesses Other 5 problem, but the real standout in this table is Taxes and Cost of Labor 4 Govt Requirements. Combined, these two Washington Fin & Interest Rates 3 centered problems account for 41% of the total responses. At current levels, the combined reading of Taxes and Government Requirements is at multi-year highs. Ever since the election, we have been hearing about the potential what if negative scenarios of going over the fiscal cliff. Based on the large decline in the Michigan Confidence Expectations Index earlier in December as well as Decembers record monthly decline in the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, those what ifs may already be what is, and they illustrate that right now, rather than solving problems, Washington is the problem.
39
63.8
'02
'04
'06
'08
'10
'12
Decembers 13.8% decline in the expectations components of the Michigan Confidence report ranks as the third steepest one month decline for the index since at least 1979. If you are looking for any indication of whether or not the Fiscal Cliff negotiations are having (or will have) an impact on the economy, the expectations component illustrates that consumers are not very optimistic that there will be a smooth process in reaching a deal. While negative sentiment may be considered a good Large Drops in Consumer Expectations contrary indicator, history shows that large drops in S&P 500 Performance (%) Date Decline 3 Months 6 Months 1 Year the expectations component of the Michigan Confi12/31/80 -16.5 0.6 -4.4 -9.7 dence report have been followed by weaker than aver- 8/31/90 -14.4 -0.1 14.9 22.6 age equity market returns. After the nine prior periods 12/31/12 -13.8 -0.4 -12.5 6.2 where expectations dropped by more than ten per- 3/31/11 -13.7 9/30/05 -13.6 1.6 5.4 8.7 centage points, the S&P 500 has averaged a decline of 9/30/01 -11.7 11.5 10.2 -21.7 -2.1 -3.2 5.1 0.4% over the next three months, and then gains of 2/29/04 -11.6 12/31/00 -10.9 -12.1 -7.3 -13.0 just 1.6% and 4.3% over the next six months and one 3/31/80 -10.6 11.9 21.0 33.2 year, respectively. In terms of the frequency of posi- 10/31/08 -10.2 -14.7 -9.4 7.0 tive returns, over the next one and three months, the Average 1.4 3.0 3.9 % Positive 44.4 44.4 66.7 S&P 500 has only been positive 44.6% of the time, while the S&P 500 has been up two-thirds of the time one year later.
40
Average Monthly Performance for Indices, Sectors, and Commodities: 1980 - 2011
Average Monthly Percent Change (%) Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct 1.78 1.13 0.00 0.56 0.05 -0.82 1.16 1.94 1.59 0.02 -0.07 0.39 -0.68 0.38 1.90 1.61 0.18 -0.60 0.03 -0.57 -0.22 2.25 1.17 3.13 2.86 1.63 2.51 2.80 2.60 1.09 2.01 1.69 2.39 2.18 1.23 1.57 1.54 0.99 1.07 0.58 1.24 1.25 1.18 0.14 0.49 0.45 1.17 0.26 0.09 -0.50 -0.20 -0.95 0.80 0.64 0.58 0.80 -0.04 2.10 -0.48 0.69 0.46 -0.15 0.52 -0.72 -0.18 0.10 -0.88 0.40 1.06 0.19 0.52 0.39 1.17 -0.34 0.57 -0.25 -0.99 0.47 -0.67 0.40 0.35 -2.69 -0.06 0.27 0.27 0.65 -0.88 1.07 0.33 -0.20 -0.40 0.95 1.08 -0.17 1.17 -1.11 -1.33 2.43 0.07 0.10 1.40 -0.52 1.03 -0.36 -0.09 0.13 -0.28 0.45 0.12 0.39 1.22 0.05 -0.02 0.37 0.19 1.22 2.24 1.60 -0.13 -0.70 0.12 2.35 1.66
S&P 500 Mid Caps (since 1981) Russell 2000 Consumer Discretionary Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Materials Technology Telecom Svcs Transports Utilities CRB Commodity US Dollar Index Long Bond Crude Oil Gold
Jan 0.97 0.63 1.45 0.96 -0.74 0.19 0.29 0.99 0.60 -0.12 2.95 0.62 1.19 0.16
Nov 1.52 1.66 1.60 1.98 1.85 0.68 1.24 2.25 1.92 2.42 2.34 1.05 2.20 0.24
Dec 1.63 3.07 2.69 0.92 1.52 1.49 1.90 1.68 2.33 2.00 1.55 1.89 1.82 1.92
1.55 2.80 0.78 1.49 1.18 1.97 0.03 1.91 -0.12 0.78 0.24 1.57 1.71 1.74 -0.35 -0.69 -1.98 0.91 0.60 1.81 -1.34 0.42
0.16 0.02 0.77 0.28 1.41 0.16 0.27 -0.46 -0.16 -0.15 -1.02 -0.20 -0.58 0.01 3.32 2.60 0.29 -0.22 -1.01 0.88
-0.35 0.33 -0.05 -0.15 -0.03 -0.82 0.84 1.22 -0.40 -1.95 -2.18 0.22 -0.54 1.63 0.12
110.0
111.7
105.0 S&P 500 100.0 Best Sectors Worst Sectors 95.0 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 103.1
42
While January has historically been a positive month for the S&P 500, that wasnt the case from 2007 to 2011. In 2012, the S&P 500 deviated from its typical long-term pattern as wells as its pattern over the last five years. For example, all of 2012s negative months occurred during months that have historically averaged gains of more than 1%. Best months: April (1.8%), December (1.6%), and November (1.5%). Worst month: September (-0.8%). Like the S&P 500, the S&P 400s performance in 2012 was nearly the exact opposite of its pattern over the last five years. While the year has recently started off on a weak note, in 2012, mid caps started of the year strong and then sold off in the Spring, which has been a time of year when they typically see strength. Best months: December (3.1%) and April (1.9%). Worst months: September (-0.7%) and July (-0.1%).
S&P 500 Average Performance: 1980 - 2012
20 15 Average Since 1980 Prior Five Years (2007 - 2011) 2012
10 5 0 -5 -10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
15
10
-5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
43
Like mid cap stocks, small caps in 2012 performed in nearly the opposite pattern that they have over the prior five years. Instead of selling off through March and then rallying, small caps rallied through March and then sold off. Likewise, while small caps have traditionally been weak in the Summer, during the Summer of 2012 they rallied. Best months: December (2.7%) and April (1.9%). Worst months: September and July (-0.6%). In the lower chart we have calculated a composite relative strength chart of large vs. small cap stocks since 1980 and from the years 2007 through 2011. This chart shows which times of year small caps have historically done best relative to large caps. As shown, whether you look at recent history or further back to 1980, small cap stocks have historically outperformed large caps in the first half of the year. In the second half, large caps typically outperform small caps until the very end of the year when small caps outperform on a relative basis.
Russell 2000 Average Performance: 1980 - 2012
20 15 Average Since 1980 Prior Five Years (2007 - 2011) 2012
10 5 0 -5 -10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Rising line indicates large caps outperforming small caps. Falling line indicates small caps outperforming large caps.
2007 - 2011
Since 1980
44
For the Consumer Discretionary sector, 2012 followed the opposite pattern of the prior five years, but it did follow the longer term pattern pretty closely. The only major difference between this year and the long term pattern is that instead of a Summer sell-off, we saw a Spring sell-off. Best months: Mar (2.8%) and May (2.4%). Worst months: September (-1.0%) and July (-0.5%). Consumer Staples followed its long-term and recent patterns pretty closely in 2012 up until Q4. While the sector has typically been strong to close the year, 2012 saw sharp pullbacks in October and December. Best months: May (2.2%) and October (2.1%). Worst months: January (-0.7%).
15 10 5 0 -5 -10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
12
10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Jan Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
45
When you compare the charts of Energy in 2012 to the pattern over the prior five years, you see two completely opposite patterns. When the chart for the prior five years rises, the 2012 chart falls and vice versa. Strength that is typical towards the end of the year was weakness in 2012 as the sector finished nearly unchanged for the year. Best months: April (3.1%) and March (2.0%). Worst months: June (-0.5%) and September (-0.1%). Like the Energy sector, the 2012 pattern of the Financial sector was the complete opposite of the pattern in the prior five years. Hopefully, this is a sign that the sector is returning back to a more normal trading environment. Best months: April (2.9%), March (1.9%) and December (1.9%). Worst months: September (-0.9%) and June (-0.7%).
Energy Sector Average Performance: 1980 - 2012
15 10 Average Since 1980 Prior Five Years (2007 - 2011) 2012
5 0 -5 -10 -15 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
3.1 5.4
1.2 0.7
-1.0 -10.6
30
20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
46
Outside of a few gyrations, the Health Care sector followed its long-term pattern pretty closely in 2012. The sector sold off in the spring but quickly resumed its uptrend after the Supreme Court upheld ObamaCare. Best months: November (2.3%) and December (1.7%). Worst months: February (-0.1%) Like Health Care, Industrials, finished off 2012 nearly exactly where they tend to finish in the average year. Once again, this is a positive as the indexs trading pattern is distancing itself from the pattern of the chaos in the last five years. Best months: April (2.5%) and December (2.3%). Worst months: September (-1.0%), June (-0.3%), and September (-0.2%).
15 10 5 0 -5 -10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
10
0 Average Since 1980 Prior Five Years (2007 - 2011) 2012 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
-5
-10
47
Like many other sectors, 2012 was practically a mirror image of the pattern of the last five years for the Materials sector, and as of mid-December the sector was right where it is at the end of an average year. Best months: April (2.8%) and November (2.4%). Worst months: September (-2.7%) and June (-0.7%). Here again, Technology followed nearly the exact opposite pattern that it has seen over the last five years. Best months: January (2.9%) and April (2.6%). Worst months: September (-0.9%), March (-0.7%), and February (-0.3%).
9 6 3 0 -3 -6 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Average Since 1980 Prior Five Years (2007 - 2011) 2012 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
20
15 10 5 0 -5 -10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Average Since 1980 Prior Five Years (2007 - 2011) 2012 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
48
The spring and Summer was uncharacteristically kind to the Telecom Services sector in 2012. While the sector has averaged declines of more than 1% during June and July over the last five years, this year the sector saw gains of more than 5% in both months! Best months: December (1.9%) and May (1.2%). Worst months: February (-2.0%) and August (-0.4%). The performance of the DJ Transports in 2012 closely resembled the indexs performance in the prior five years, and it finished off the year on a positive note with nearly an identical return to the average of the last five years, although still well below the historical average return going back to 1980. Best months: December (1.9%) and April (1.7%). Worst months: February (-1.3%) and September (-0.5%).
Telecom Services Sector Average Performance: 1980 - 2012
25 20 Average Since 1980 Prior Five Years (2007 - 2011) 2012
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
10
-5
-10 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
49
For the first half of 2012, the Utilities sector followed its typical pattern pretty closely. In the second half of the year, though, Utilities sold off on the looming hikes in taxes on dividends even though it is typically a time of year where the sector sees strength. Best months: December (1.9%) and April (1.7%). Worst months: February (-1.3%) and September (-0.5%).
Utilities Sector Average Performance: 1980 - 2012
8 6 Average Since 1980 Prior Five Years (2007 - 2011) 2012
4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
50
The Spring sell-off for Treasuries came right on schedule this year. The long bond future declined 3.7% in March, which is typically the worst month of the year for the asset class. Likewise, the Long Bond Future closed out 2012 with a decline in December, which is historically its second worst month of the year. Best months: August and November (1.2%). Worst months: March (-1.0%) and December (-0.4%). The pattern of commodities in 2012 was nearly the complete opposite of its typical pattern over the last five years. During periods when they have typically rallied in the last five years, in 2012 they were selling off. Best month: March (0.8%). Worst months: October and June (-0.4%).
US Long Bond Future Average Performance: 1980 - 2012
10 8 Average Since 1980 Prior Five Years (2007 - 2011) 2012
6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
-10
-15 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
0.3 2.0
0.1 0.6
-0.8 -10.8
51
Like the CRB index, oil followed the opposite pattern that it had followed in the prior five years and since 1980. Following the commoditys peak in February, oil was never able to regain its footing, trending lower throughout the year. Best months: March (3.3%) and April (2.6%). Worst months: November (-2.2%) and October (-1.9%). The pattern of gold in 2012 was similar to its long term pattern going back to 1980, which may be signaling that the seemingly endless run-up of the prior five years may be on hold. Best months: September (1.7%), August (1.6%) and November (1.6%). Worst months: March (-1.0%) and October (-0.5%).
10 0 -10 -20 -30 Jan Average Since 1980 Prior Five Years (2007 - 2011) 2012 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1.2 3.1
0.4 4.1
-17.5 -1.8
20
15 10 5 0 -5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
52
53
Technology
25 23 21 19 17 15 13 11 9 7 5
Financials
15.63%
18 16 14
Health Care
12.05%
16 14 12 10 8 6 4
Consumer Staples
12 10 8 6
10.64%
17 15 13 11 9 7 5 3
Energy
16 15 14 13 12
11.04%
Industrials
11 10 9 8
10.13%
18 16 14
Cons. Discretionary
11.40%
9 8 7 6 5 4 3
Materials
12 10
8 6
3.62%
2 1
7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0
Utilities
3.47%
11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2
Telecom
3.07%
54
55
56
57
58
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
275
225
175
125
75 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
59
60
S&P 500 Technology vs. Financial Sector Since Bubble Peaks (%)
0 -10 Technology (3/27/00-Present) -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 Financials (2/20/07-Present)
-70 -80 -90 0 300 600 900 1200 1500 1800 2100 2400 2700 3000
61
Most Recent
62
Employment
4
Most Recent
-6
Most Recent
Housing
8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -2 -2 -4 -4 -6 -4 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 -8 -8 -4 2 2 6 8 6
Inflation
6 4 4 2 0 0 0
-4 -6 -8
-4
-6 -8
Most Recent
-10
Most Recent
Consumer
8 6 6 4 4 2 2 0 0 -2 -4 -4 -6 -6 -8 -6 -4 -15 0 0 0 -5 -10 -6 2 5 10 6 15
10 8 5 1 4
-5 -11
-6
-6
Most Recent
-20
-16
Most Recent
63
-19
-22 -20
-40 1/99 1/00 1/01 1/02 1/03 1/04 1/05 1/06 1/07 1/08 1/09 1/10 1/11 1/12
Last 12 Months
25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 1/12
23
4/12
-20
7/12
10/12
64
Employment
Inflation
GDP
Manufacturing ISM Manufacturing Industrial Production Capacity Utilization Durable Goods Ex Trans.
65
12
Was moving in the wrong direction but has been slowly rebounding.
Consumer Confidence in recent years has looked like an EKG as good news gets offset by Washington gridlock.
25
-25
66
The average workweek saw a nice sustained pick up off the recessionary lows, but it has leveled off since the start of 2012.
67
Continuing claims finally below the peaks of prior recessions but still high by historical standards.
68
69
'60
'70
'80
'90
'00
'10
12
70
18 13 8 3 -2
Moving sideways.
71
After a run-up in late 2011, core PPI slowly coming in since the first quarter.
72
After a strong surge in capacity utilization growth, current levels are barely positive.
73
Trough 10/31/49 5/31/54 4/30/58 2/28/61 11/30/70 3/31/75 7/31/80 11/30/82 3/31/91 11/30/01 6/30/09
Peak 7/31/53 8/31/57 4/30/60 12/31/69 11/30/73 1/31/80 7/31/81 7/31/90 3/31/01 12/31/07 12/31/12 Average
Duration S&P 500 Performance (%) (Years) First 42 Months Next Six Months Next Year Entire Expansion 3.8 53.49 -0.32 14.78 54.30 3.3 2.0 8.8 28.99 6.84 6.53 45.11 3.0 4.8 23.01 -0.93 6.61 36.95 1.0 7.7 78.54 0.76 17.28 157.07 10.0 23.32 8.21 26.30 209.24 6.1 4.57 4.87 6.60 28.87 3.5 49.13 49.13 5.0 35.32 3.24 13.02 88.59
74
Estimated
Red font indicates quarter with weaker growth than median for all quarters.
75
Negative number for monthly supply is actually a positive as it shows less of a supply in the current period..
76
10 5
Current Expansion
48
54
Housing
Housing Starts: Current vs Average
Percent Change Since End of Recession Percent Change Since End of Recession
60 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 Months Since Recession Ended Current Expansion Average Expansion
40
20
77
20
16 12
8 4
20
78
Inflation
CPI: Current vs Average
45
50
10
79
Months
60 40 20 0
80
Months
15 10 5 0
Average: 15
Another way to illustrate the less volatile nature of the US economy post WWII is to look at the Y/Y change in Industrial Production going back to 1919. Pre WWII, this indicator routinely moved from negative 30% to positive 30% (or more). Post WWII though, the ebbs and flows have been a lot more muted. On the growth side, it is rare to see growth in excess of 10%. On the downside, even during the depths of the Financial crisis, the y/y decline only got as low as negative 15%.
30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 '19 '29 '39 '49 '59 '69 '79 '89 '99 '09
81
82
Sector Consumer Discret. Consumer Staples Energy Financials Health Care Industrials Materials Technology Telecom Svcs Transports Utilities S&P 500
83
'53 '45
'57 '90 '80 '69 '07 '48 '73 '01 '81 '60 Average
0% Start 2/28/45 11/30/48 7/31/53 8/31/57 4/30/60 12/31/69 11/30/73 1/31/80 7/31/81 7/31/90 3/31/01 11/30/07
25% 25% 3.8 -0.1 -3.2 -9.3 3.1 -4.4 -2.1 -7.6 -4.5 -14.1 8.2 -7.1 -3.1 25.0
50% Duration in to Recession (%) 50% 4.0 1.4 0.0 -12.5 -3.2 -17.3 -17.4 -7.6 -14.5 -11.2 4.4 -15.5 -7.4 33.3
75% 75% 7.3 5.2 7.3 -9.7 4.5 -10.0 -27.1 1.4 -18.2 -5.7 -10.3 -42.9 -8.2 41.7
100% 100% 16.4 8.7 17.9 -3.9 16.7 -5.3 -13.1 6.6 5.8 5.4 -1.8 -37.9 1.3 58.3
They dont say markets are forward looking for nothing. On average, the S&P 500 has tended to bottom during the third quarter of recessions. Three quarters of the way into the recession, the S&P 500 has averaged a decline of 8.2%, but 42% of the time the index has already erased its entire decline since the start of the recession.
84
0% Start 2/28/45 11/30/48 7/31/53 8/31/57 4/30/60 12/31/69 11/30/73 1/31/80 7/31/81 7/31/90 3/31/01 11/30/07
25% 25% 0.7 3.4 2.1 -5.6 0.8 -0.5 5.4 -9.6 -4.6 -20.0 11.5 -9.0 -2.1 50.0
50% Duration in to Recession (%) 50% 4.3 -6.9 10.4 -8.0 -7.8 -20.7 -12.4 -12.8 -2.2 -16.5 10.1 -10.5 -6.1 25.0
75% 75% 5.1 -9.1 15.5 -2.6 -3.7 -11.0 -32.6 -2.7 0.5 -8.9 -14.1 -43.5 -8.9 25.0
100% 100% 16.2 6.7 32.0 3.2 3.7 -5.8 -7.0 7.9 60.6 5.5 -0.2 -33.3 7.5 66.7
The Consumer Discretionary sector typically holds up relatively well during the early stages of a recession, averaging a decline of just 2.1%. Three quarters of the way into the contraction, the average falls all the way down to a decline of 8.9% with positive returns only 25% of the time. As the market anticipates an end to the recession, however, the sector quickly recovers. By the end of the recession, the sector is actually up 7.5% with positive returns two-thirds of the time.
85
0% Start 2/28/45 11/30/48 7/31/53 8/31/57 4/30/60 12/31/69 11/30/73 1/31/80 7/31/81 7/31/90 3/31/01 11/30/07
25% 25% 0.3 -5.5 -6.7 -12.0 -3.9 -11.5 -2.7 4.8 -6.1 -5.3 10.1 13.1 -2.1 33.3
50% Duration in to Recession (%) 50% 0.2 0.5 -0.8 -17.9 -4.2 -14.1 -17.3 -0.5 -26.5 -7.7 0.9 -7.8 -7.9 25.0
75% 75% -5.1 -0.6 12.9 -20.8 2.1 -0.5 -23.8 11.8 -30.7 -10.8 -9.6 -30.8 -8.8 25.0
100% 100% 2.2 8.6 24.1 -9.2 17.5 7.3 -17.0 9.9 -26.9 -2.9 -10.7 -33.5 -2.6 50.0
Although the Energy sector held up well in recessions from 1945 through 1980, the trend for the sector has changed over the last four recessions. Since the second dip of the double dip in 1981, the Energy sector has declined during every recession for an average decline of 18.5% (shaded box).
86
0% Start 2/28/45 11/30/48 7/31/53 8/31/57 4/30/60 12/31/69 11/30/73 1/31/80 7/31/81 7/31/90 3/31/01 11/30/07
25% 25% -1.4 1.4 5.7 -10.2 -1.1 9.0 -0.4 -11.6 5.9 -23.9 7.5 -16.9 -3.0 41.7
50% Duration in to Recession (%) 50% 7.1 2.7 5.0 -7.8 -3.4 -5.4 -29.0 -6.6 -0.5 -19.9 5.5 -32.0 -7.0 33.3
75% 75% 0.2 2.6 4.4 -1.5 1.0 4.8 -29.8 6.1 -13.8 -11.1 -7.0 -70.8 -9.6 50.0
100% 100% 10.2 12.5 6.9 0.0 14.9 -1.3 -21.9 2.2 24.3 7.5 -2.6 -61.3 -0.7 58.3
More so than any other sector, the most recent recession really skewed things for the Financial sector. From 2007 through 2009, the sector declined 61.3%, bringing the overall average decline during recessions down to 0.7%. Without the last recession, the sector has averaged a gain of 4.8%.
87
0% Start 2/28/45 11/30/48 7/31/53 8/31/57 4/30/60 12/31/69 11/30/73 1/31/80 7/31/81 7/31/90 3/31/01 11/30/07
25% 25% 4.2 6.9 3.6 -2.3 8.6 -8.9 -4.2 -11.0 0.4 -11.4 3.7 -14.6 -2.1 50.0
50% Duration in to Recession (%) 50% 4.6 14.6 9.9 3.0 -2.6 -18.1 -22.3 -5.3 -0.9 -4.1 4.1 -11.6 -2.4 41.7
75% 75% 7.8 15.4 14.4 7.8 4.7 -19.6 -22.0 3.7 -0.7 1.4 1.7 -25.3 -0.9 66.7
100% 100% 22.2 11.6 17.1 23.6 16.7 -9.6 -12.4 7.7 15.0 18.4 5.9 -27.5 7.4 75.0
Besides Consumer Staples and Utilities, no sector has seen better returns during a recession than the Health Care sector. Going back to 1945, the sector has averaged a gain of 7.4% with positive returns 75.0% of the time.
88
0% Start 2/28/45 11/30/48 7/31/53 8/31/57 4/30/60 12/31/69 11/30/73 1/31/80 7/31/81 7/31/90 3/31/01 11/30/07
25% 25% 3.2 -0.6 -4.0 -9.5 2.7 -5.1 -2.4 -7.4 -5.5 -19.9 15.4 -5.2 -3.2 25.0
50% Duration in to Recession (%) 50% 2.2 0.3 -0.4 -13.3 -3.7 -17.5 -17.0 -8.1 -15.8 -19.8 7.0 -15.3 -8.5 25.0
75% 75% 6.9 4.4 7.2 -11.0 4.3 -10.4 -27.4 0.9 -18.7 -9.2 -10.4 -49.4 -9.4 41.7
100% 100% 14.9 8.2 19.2 -5.4 16.0 -5.7 -13.1 6.8 4.9 -1.1 -0.2 -46.5 -0.2 50.0
Not surprisingly, the Industrials sector is one of the worst performing sectors early on in recessions, as well as throughout the entire recession. Since the end of WWII, the sector has averaged a decline of 3.2% during the first quartile of the recession. Three quarters of the way into the contraction, the sector averages a decline of 9.4%. Once the recession is finally over, the S&P 500 has averaged a decline of 0.2% with positive returns just 50% of the time.
89
0% Start 2/28/45 11/30/48 7/31/53 8/31/57 4/30/60 12/31/69 11/30/73 1/31/80 7/31/81 7/31/90 3/31/01 11/30/07
25% 25% 3.0 4.0 3.2 -7.8 -0.5 -3.7 14.2 -13.3 -13.4 -18.0 15.2 5.9 -0.9 50.0
50% Duration in to Recession (%) 50% 1.8 7.2 10.4 -7.6 -11.8 -3.1 7.2 -11.9 -21.8 -17.0 10.3 -9.5 -3.8 41.7
75% 75% 4.9 8.7 11.8 -8.0 -7.3 8.4 -12.8 -4.0 -28.6 -8.7 -3.3 -48.2 -7.3 33.3
100% 100% 12.7 21.3 26.6 -8.0 0.8 2.7 4.6 1.0 -10.3 -2.5 10.5 -40.0 1.6 66.7
The Materials sector has tended to hold up relatively well during the first part of recessions averaging just a minor decline (-0.9%). The sector typically sees its low for the period early on during the third quarter of the recession, making it one of the leading sectors for the overall market.
90
-5
-10
-15
0% Start 2/28/45 11/30/48 7/31/53 8/31/57 4/30/60 12/31/69 11/30/73 1/31/80 7/31/81 7/31/90 3/31/01 11/30/07
25% 25% 0.3 3.1 0.4 -5.0 11.5 -12.9 -9.2 -12.4 -6.3 -16.2 11.1 -8.7 -3.7 41.7
50% Duration in to Recession (%) 50% 5.8 8.4 3.8 -5.0 10.0 -29.1 -25.4 -20.9 -3.7 -12.8 5.7 -16.9 -6.7 41.7
75% 75% 6.4 14.7 24.5 6.5 27.5 -29.5 -37.6 -15.9 -1.8 0.8 -25.8 -41.3 -6.0 50.0
100% 100% 16.3 23.1 43.8 12.8 40.4 -21.7 -26.2 -6.7 30.5 4.6 1.9 -29.1 7.5 66.7
Technology has historically seen a strong rebound during the final quarter of the recession, finishing the contraction with a gain of 7.5% and positive returns two-thirds of the time. That being said, rather than being a leading indicator for the market, the sectors bottom is typically coincident with the broader market.
91
0% Start 2/28/45 11/30/48 7/31/53 8/31/57 4/30/60 12/31/69 11/30/73 1/31/80 7/31/81 7/31/90 3/31/01 11/30/07
25% 25%
0.3 6.1 4.0 -7.6 6.2 -6.2 2.2 -12.6 -1.0 62.5
50% Duration in to Recession (%) 50% n/a n/a n/a n/a -1.6 -14.7 -13.5 3.4 -0.4 -4.9 1.8 -21.6 -6.4 25.0
75% 75%
100% 100%
6.0 -5.2 -12.2 6.0 -7.5 -6.8 -2.4 -37.6 -7.5 25.0
26.9 -10.5 0.2 2.8 6.2 -0.9 -14.1 -36.2 -3.2 50.0
With price data only going back as far as 1960, it is difficult to compare Telecom Services to other sectors and the broader market where we looked at data going back to 1945. Interestingly, even though the sector is considered defensive by nature, its has not been a very good performer during recessions.
92
0% Start 2/28/45 11/30/48 7/31/53 8/31/57 4/30/60 12/31/69 11/30/73 1/31/80 7/31/81 7/31/90 3/31/01 11/30/07
25% 25% 10.7 -6.2 -9.3 -18.8 -0.7 -3.4 5.7 -7.0 -4.2 -23.1 6.3 6.5 -3.6 33.3
50% Duration in to Recession (%) 50% 16.7 -7.3 -10.8 -30.1 -11.8 -21.2 -9.8 -14.0 -18.1 -24.3 4.9 8.9 -9.8 25.0
75% 75% 6.7 -9.3 -4.6 -25.1 -9.1 -21.9 -15.4 -1.4 -24.1 -5.8 -20.8 -34.4 -13.8 8.3
100% 100% 16.6 -7.8 4.5 -18.6 4.4 -13.0 -5.5 10.8 9.3 1.5 -9.4 -30.6 -3.2 50.0
Transports are often referred to as a leading indicator for the broader market, but in terms of leading the market out of recessions, the sector has lagged the broader market. While the S&P 500 has typically reached its low for the recession 62% of the way in, the low for the Transports typically doesnt come until the recession is more than 75% over (77%).
93
0% Start 2/28/45 11/30/48 7/31/53 8/31/57 4/30/60 12/31/69 11/30/73 1/31/80 7/31/81 7/31/90 3/31/01 11/30/07
25% 25% 6.0 6.6 3.3 -3.7 6.6 3.7 2.0 -7.7 2.9 -7.2 2.0 -5.7 0.7 66.7
50% Duration in to Recession (%) 50% 12.8 12.7 6.7 1.8 2.5 -13.2 -23.4 0.5 -2.0 -0.4 -10.7 -15.1 -2.3 50.0
75% 75% 12.5 16.1 12.3 9.1 9.1 -2.1 -26.0 6.7 -5.6 -0.7 -23.7 -30.2 -1.9 50.0
100% 100% 28.8 20.8 16.3 16.1 24.6 2.9 -14.9 4.6 9.9 4.2 -28.5 -34.3 4.2 75.0
While Transports have historically lagged the overall market in terms of when they reach their bottom, Utilities actually lead the market! Going back to 1945, the Utilities sector has reached its low of the recession an average of 56% of the way into the recession. The only two sectors that typically bottom earlier are Consumer Staples and Energy.
94
% Chg 52.89 -2.73 43.78 5.25 -37.19 53.56 36.63 -4.32 97.00
Company PulteGroup Inc M/I Homes Inc KB Home Ryland Group Inc Standard Pacific Corp MDC Holdings Inc Lennar Corp Meritage Homes Corp Toll Brothers Inc DR Horton Inc NVR Inc
Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
% Chg 36.31 15.01 -20.23 -55.51 -31.88 18.10 2.33 -6.05 79.91
Below is a chart of the S&P 1500 Homebuilder group going back to 2000. As shown, the group broke out of a multi-year post-bubble sideways trading range in mid2012, and it has continued to rise with no significant resistance in the way. The technicals continue to look positive for the homebuilders.
95
Below and on the following pages we take a look at home prices around the country using the S&P/Case-Shiller home price indices. Below is a chart of the 10-city nationwide home price index going all the way back to 1987. As shown, while prices have stabilized and headed higher this year, theyre still stuck in a rut and are well below their highs reached back in 2006. In fact, theyre still not even at post-recession highs, so well look for this new high to be made in 2013. S&P/Case-Shiller 10-City Composite Home Price Index: 1987-Present
Oct-90
Oct-95
Oct-00
Oct-05
Oct-10
Jan-87
Jan-92
Jan-97
Jan-02
Jan-07
Apr-88
Apr-93
Apr-98
96
Apr-03
Apr-08
Jan-12
Jul-89
Jul-94
Jul-99
Jul-04
Jul-09
% Change
We also looked at how far each city is now above its post-recession lows. As shown, the two composite indices are up 8-9% off their lows, while Detroit is up the most at +24%. San Francisco and Phoenix are the other two cities up more than 20%. The northeast corridor of the country has struggled to bounce, however. Boston is up just 6% from its lows, while New York is up even less at 5%, but these two regions also held up relatively well during the downturn.
% Change from Post-Bubble Lows in S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices
30
24 22 22 18 15 16
25
% Change
20 15 10
5 6 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12
5 0
97
Phoenix
Los Angeles
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
San Diego
San Francisco
Denver
40 30 20 10 0
Washington DC
0 -5 -10
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Miami
Tampa
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
98
Atlanta
Chicago
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Boston
Detroit
00
02
04
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Minneapolis
Charlotte
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Las Vegas
New York
40 20 0 -20 -40 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
99
Cleveland
Portland
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Seattle
Dallas
Composite 10 City
Composite 20 City
100
600
400
200
-200
-400 '62 '72 Recessions '82 '92 Yield Curve '02 '12
101
There is not much to say about short term interest rates given the Feds intention to keep the Fed Funds rate at zero until the unemployment rate drops to 6.5%. For much of 2012, the yield on the 3-month T-Bill was just under 0.1%. Following the Feds December meeting, however, where they outlined their long-term policy objectives, the yield plummeted all the way down to 0.02%.
US Three Month Treasury Yield: 1962 - 2012
'97
'02
'07
'12
102
4/12
7/12
10/12
At the beginning of this section, we highlighted the yield curves impeccable record at predicting recessions. That being said, one could make the argument that with short term rates being held artificially lower by the Federal Reserve, that the predictive power of the yield curve will not be as effective. Thats certainly a possibility, but investors should bet against the yield curve at their own risk. Just as the Fed holding interest rates artificially low may hurt the predictive ability of the yield curve, the Feds actions may also be having an adverse impact on the economy. Since the steepness of the yield curve helps to signal economic growth, the Feds actions of holding rates low on the long end of the curve through its asset purchase program has the effect of artificially flattening the curve. Relative to its historical average, the steepness of the yield curve is currently (174 bps) only slightly above its long-term average of 145 bps.
Yield Curve (10-Year Minus Three Month Treasury Yield): 1962 - 2012
600 500 400 300
2.0 St Dev 1.5 St Dev 1.0 St Dev Average -1.0 St Dev -1.5 St Dev -2.0 St Dev
200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 '62 '67 '72 '77 '82 '87 '92 '97 '02 '07 '12
103
S&P 500 Average Forward Six Month Return Based on Yield Curve Spread
35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Curve Rising -5 Curve Falling -10 -15 2 Above 1.5+ Above 1.0+ Above Positive Negative 1.0+ Below 1.5+ Below 2.0 Below
Current Level
104
Technology Transports Cons Discret. Cons Staples Health Care Energy S&P 500 Materials Industrials Financials Telecom Svcs Utilities
Sector Performance When Yield Curve is Less Than 1 St. Dev. Above Average
10.0 8.0 6.0 Rising Falling Overall
105
+7%
-6%
Longer term, the US dollar remains in a bull market after bottoming nearly five years ago in April 2008. While it hasnt exactly been In full bull mode since then, prior bottoms in the dollar have been slow to develop, and for now the US Dollar Index is still up more than 10% from its record lows in 2008.
Range-bound
'11
106
2010
2011
2012
90 87 84
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-0.83
'12
107
End % Change 1/23/1974 20.9% 10/30/1978 -25.1% 2/25/1985 100.7% 12/31/1987 -48.2% 6/14/1989 23.7% 2/11/1991 -23.8% 7/5/2001 50.2% 4/22/2008 -41.0% 11.9%
Days 201 1,741 2,310 1,039 531 607 3,797 2,483 1,714
S&P 500 Performance (%) -4.16 -2.07 88.54 37.86 31.06 13.82 230.79 12.85 2.24 69.70 15.61 31.06 13.34
4/22/2008 12/31/2012
Average - Dollar Bull Markets Average - Dollar Bear Markets Median - Dollar Bull Markets Median - Dollar Bear Markets
1
108
Investors who are looking for the US Dollar to make new lows in 2013 should overweight the commodity related sectors that dollar bulls will be selling along with Consumer Staples, and Health Care. At the same time, sectors to underweight would include Telecom Services, Utilities, and Financials.
Average Sector Performance During Dollar Bears
60 50 40 30
20.4 20 10 0
20.3
18.6
2.2
109
120
110
10
-5 1/3 2/3 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3
15 10 5 0 -5 1/3
3/3
5/3
7/3
9/3
11/3
111
16.33
8.47
0.24
-1 -2 -2 -3
-2.18
112
500
4/12
7/12
10/12
250
0 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
High Yield Spreads (Merrill Lynch High Yield Master Index): 2003 - 2012
Spread Over Treasuries (bps)
750 700 650 1500 600 550 500 1/12 Average: 608 500 528 4/12 7/12 10/12 528
2000
1000
0 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12
113
Bespoke's Bank and Broker CDS Index vs S&P 500 Financial Sector
3250
2750
210 2250 200 190 1750 180 170 1250 160 150 750 140
Bespoke Financial % Change CDS Index One Year One Month One Week -50.24 -13.01 2.61
114
Citigroup CDS
410 360 310 260 210 160 110
12/31 12/31 3/31 6/30 9/30 3/31 6/30 9/30
91 132
149
110 90 70
12/31 12/31 3/31 6/30 9/30 3/31 6/30 9/30
115
116
30 25 20
15.49 24.32
15
10.65 11.21
11.40
10
6.21
5
0.48
1.69
2.18
3.05
117
Oil
Price
2/11
3/27
5/11
6/25
8/9
9/23
11/7
12/22
Oil was pretty much in a downtrend for 2012. The commodity has moved to the top of its range over the last few weeks, but this puts it right at the top of its downtrend channel, which will need to break for the techncials to turn positive. After trending downward for multiple years, natural gas has actually been in an uptrend for the last eight months. Nat. gas moved to the bottom of its range in December, but if it can hold here, it still looks bullish.
Natural Gas
Price
2/11
3/27
5/11
6/25
8/9
9/23
11/7
12/22
Corn
2/11
3/27
5/11
6/25
8/9
9/23
11/7
12/22
Corn experienced a parabolic move in July that pushed it up nearly 40%. Since then it has been drifting lower, but it still saw the biggest gain of any commodity in 2012 due to its July move. The technicals dont look particularly strong heading into 2013. Like corn, wheat also surged in July, but it has given up more than half of those gains after seeing a big drop in December. Wheat is due for a bounce off of oversold levels, but its longterm technicals are negative.
Price
1100
Wheat
1000 900
Price
2/11
3/27
5/11
6/25
8/9
9/23
11/7
12/22
118
Gold
Price
Gold had a lot of ups and downs in 2012, and it ended the year on a down note. We could see a bounce off of oversold levels in early 2013, but it is still in a multi-month downtrend.
8/9 9/23 11/7 12/22
2/11
3/27
5/11
6/25
40 35
Silver
30 25 20 12/28
Silver has moved to extreme oversold territory after performing very poorly in December. Like gold, silver is due for a bounce, but its long-term technicals are negative.
2/11 3/27 5/11 6/25 8/9 9/23 11/7 12/22
Price
Platinum
Price
1600 1500 1400 1300 1200 12/28 2/11 3/27 5/11 6/25 8/9 9/23 11/7 12/22
Platinum is stuck in a downtrend as well even though it gained just under 10% in 2012. Its due for a bounce off of oversold levels, but it will need to break its downtrend before the technicals look positive again. Copper has held up better than the precious metals in December, putting it right in the middle of its trading range as 2012 ends. While copper is in a short -term downtrend, it did make a higher low recently, which puts it on firmer footing than other metals.
Copper
415 395 375
Price
355 335 315 295 275 12/27 2/10 3/26 5/10 6/24 8/8 9/22 11/6 12/21
119
Orange Juice
Orange juice struggled throughout the first half of 2012, but it formed a nice base in the second half of the year and is ending the year close to the top of its trading range. If it can just break above this range, technicals will look very positive. Coffee was the worst performing commodity in 2012, and its technicals dont suggest that its nasty downtrend will come to an end any time soon.
Price
Coffee
Price
200 180 160 140 120 12/28 2/11 3/27 5/11 6/25 8/9 9/23 11/7 12/22
120
60 40 20 0
Jan-75
Jan-77
Jan-79
Jan-81
Jan-83
Jan-85
Jan-87
Jan-89
Jan-91
Jan-93
Jan-95
Jan-97
Jan-99
Jan-01
Jan-03
Jan-05
Jan-07
Jan-09
Jan-11
The gold to platinum ratio skyrocketed from 2008 to early 2012, putting gold above the price of platinum for the first time in two decades. The ratio is out of line in our opinion, and we expect platinum to outperform gold in 2013 as the ratio moves back inline with the norm.
Gold/Platinum Ratio: 1986-Present
1.4 1.2
1.08
121
Jan-13
122
Of the G7 countries, Germany was up the most with a solid 29% gain. Canada was up the least of the G7 at +3.02%.
The US finished the year just G7 Countries BRICs a notch above the world average, while India was the best performing BRIC with a gain of 25.82%. China struggled for most of the year, but a December rally pushed it back into the green at +1.54%.
123
124
125
126
127
128
-5
129
Australia - AS51
13250 12750
Canada - S&P/TSX
Price
Price
Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12
4400
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Brazil - IBOV
2800 2600
Price
Price
Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
24000 23000 22000 20000 19000 18000 17000 16000 Dec-11 Feb-12 21000
France - CAC
Price
Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12
Price
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
130
Germany - DAX
India - Sensex
Price
Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12
Price
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Taiwan - TWSE
Price
Price
Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12
1600 1550 1500 1450 1400 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12
UK - FTSE 100
Price
Price
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Mexico - Bolsa
2000 1800
Price
40000 38000 36000 34000 32000 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12
Price
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
131
Sweden - OMX
Price
Price
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
850 Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
36000 34000
10000 9000
Spain - IBEX
Price
Price
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
7200 6700
Switzerland - SMI
Price
1900 1800 1700 1600 1500 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12
Price
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
132
Ch in a' s
ro w
th
En gi ne
ec lin
es
134
1,500
1,450
30 9 8 26 10 11 25 24 22 23 13 28 27 5 4 6 7 12 29
1,400
135
1,350
1,300
1,250
14 20 15 18 16 21 17 19
1,200 3/3 4/3 5/3 6/3 7/3 8/3 9/3 10/3 11/3 12/3
1/3
2/3
19 18 14 20 13 7 1 4 5 6 8 10 9 11 12 15 16 17 21 22
1270
2
1260 1/3
Date 1/3 1/4 1/5 1/6 1/9 1/9 1/10 1/11 1/12 1/13 1/17 1/17 1/18 1/19 1/20 1/23 1/24 1/25 1/26 1/27 1/30 1/31
3
1/5 1/9 1/11 1/13 1/18 1/20 1/24 1/26 1/30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Event Manufacturing in US Grows by Most in 6 Months; Global Manufacturing Displays Resilience. Euro-Area Manufacturing, Services Contract Less Than Estimated. Jobless Claims in U.S. Dropped 15,000 Last Week to 372K; Services ISM Grows Less Than Forecast. US Payrolls Beat Forecasts as Unemployment Falls. German Industrial Output Drops in Sign Growth Stalling. Alcoa Posts First Quarterly Loss Since 2009 After Aluminum Prices Drop. Stocks, Commodities Advance on China Policy as Dollar Weakens. Goldman Sachs Trading Co-Heads to Leave Firm. Retail Sales in US Increase Less Than Forecast; Jobless Claims Rise More Than Forecast. Lacker Says Theres No Compelling Case for More Fed Stimulus. Manufacturing in New York Fed Region Expands at Faster Pace. Chinas Growth Is Far From Hard Landing, Goldmans ONeill Says. Confidence Among U.S. Homebuilders Climbs to Highest Since 2007. Jobless Claims in U.S. Fall to Lowest Since 2008. Greece Moves Closer to Debt-Swap Accord With Private Investors. Goldman Says U.S. Data Looks Better Than They Are. IMF Says Europe Crisis Threatens to Derail Global Economy. Fed Weighing More Bond Buying as Rate Pledge Extended Through 2014. Index of U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Rises for Third Month. Feds Dudley Sees Significant Impediments to Economic Growth. Fed Says Business-Loan Demand Climbs as Economy Accelerates. Facebook Is Said to Pick Morgan Stanley to Lead Share Sale.
136
20 21 17 18 19
22
23 7 6 8 9 11 3
2/3 2/7 2/9 2/13 2/15 2/17 2/22 2/24 2/28
10 12
14 15 13
16
5 4 2 1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Event US Manufacturing Grows at Fastest Pace in Seven Months. Facebook Files to Raise $5 Billion in Biggest Internet IPO. Bernanke Says He Wont Trade Inflation Goal for More Job Growth. Non Farm Payrolls Rise At Fastest Rate in Nine Months. Feds Bullard Says Surprising U.S. Strength Weakens QE Case. Time Running Out for Greece as Leaders Haggle, Merkel Says. Bernanke Says 8.3% Unemployment Understates Labor Weakness. Chinas Central Bank Pledges Support for Housing Market. Euro Decision on Greek Bailout Deferred to Pressure Athens. Gross Raises Holdings of Treasuries to Highest Since 2010. Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Falls More Than Forecast. European Leaders Confident Greece Meeting Bailout Demands. Retail Sales in U.S. Trail Forecasts as Auto Purchases Drop. New York Area Factories Expand at Fastest Pace Since June 2010. Initial Jobless Claims Drop to Lowest Level Since 2008. Leading Indicators Point to Sustained U.S. Growth. Australia Central Bank Sees Scope for Further Rate Cuts. Euro-Area Manufacturing, Services Unexpectedly Contract. Jobless Claims in U.S. Hold at Four-Year Low. Oil Jumps to Almost $110 as S&P 500 Closes at Highest Since 2008. BP Said to Weigh $14 Billion Settlement of Spill Claims. Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Moves Toward Pre-Recession Levels; Dow Closes Above 13K. Gold Falls 5% as Bernanke Affirms Low-Rate Pledge Without Offering Easing Options.
137
19 12 13 14 16 15 17 18 20 21 22
1405 1390
9 1 7 2 6 3 4
3/1 3/5 3/7 3/9 3/13
10
11
8 5
3/15
3/19
3/21
3/23
3/27
3/29
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Date 3/1 3/2 3/5 3/6 3/7 3/8 3/9 3/12 3/13 3/14 3/15 3/16 3/19 3/20 3/21 3/22 3/23 3/26 3/27 3/28 3/29 3/30
Event US Manufacturing PMI Slows, But Auto Sales Pace Hits Four-Year High. US Housing Lays Foundation for Recovery as Buyers Coaxed Back. Service Industries in US Expand by Most in Year, But Stocks Fall on China Growth Concerns. EU Economy Contracts Sending US Stocks to Their Largest One-Day Loss of 2012. ADP Estimates US Companies Added 216,000 Jobs in February. Private Investors Agree to Swap 85% of Greek Debt; US Consumer Confidence Hits 4-Yr High. Payroll Gain in US Caps Best Six Months Since 06. Euro Ministers Head Toward Final Approval of Second Greek Rescue. Fed Says 15 of 19 Banks Have Adequate Capital in Stress Scenario; Retail Sales Hit 5 Month High. Bernanke Keeps Easing Option While Signaling Economy Improving. S&P 500 Dividends Rise to Record After JPMorgans Boost. Consumer Sentiment in US Drops on Rising Gasoline Prices. AAPL Announces Dividend and Stock Buyback; Feds Dudley Says U.S. Isnt Out of the Woods.' US Housing Heals as Starts Near Three-Year High. Bernanke Sees Threat to U.S. Growth From Higher Fuel Prices. Optimism for US Outlook Reaches Eight-Year High. Bats Withdraws IPO After Errors Pummel Its Stock, Halt Apple. Bernanke Says Accommodative Policy Needed to Cut Joblessness. Improving US Job Market Bolsters Confidence; Bernanke Says Too Early to 'Declare Victory'. Unemployment May Drop to 6% by Mid-2013, NY Fed Study Finds. Unemployment Claims in US Fall to Four-Year Low. Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Climbed in March to One-Year High; S&P 500 Finishes Q1 Up 12%.
138
1 2 19 4 18 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 17
1400
20
1375
5 6 7 10
15
4/19 4/23 4/25 4/27
1350 4/2
Date 4/2 4/3 4/4 4/5 4/9 4/10 4/11 4/12 4/13 4/16 4/17 4/18 4/19 4/20 4/23 4/24 4/25 4/26 4/27 4/30
4/4
4/9
4/11
4/13
4/17
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Event Manufacturing in U.S. Grew at Faster Pace in March; Euro Area Contracts for 8th Straight Month. Factory Orders Rose 1.3% in February on Capital Goods. Service Industries in U.S. Kept Expanding in March. Jobless Claims in U.S. Fell to Lowest Level in Four Years; Consumer Confidence Improves. Stocks Drop as Treasury Yields Slip Following Weaker Than Expected Payrolls Report. Stocks, Spanish Bonds Drop as Treasuries Rise on Europe Concern. Stocks Rise on Alcoa Results as Spanish Bonds Advance With Euro. Unemployment Claims in U.S. Rise to Two-Month High. Consumer Sentiment Declines; Stocks Tumble as Copper Falls, Treasuries Rise. Retail Sales Climb More Than Forecast on Jobs; Homebuilder Sentiment Falls to 3-Month Low. Factories Cool for First Time in Four Months. Stocks Fall as Intel, IBM Slump; EBAY Soars. Stocks Retreat on Economic Data as French, Spain Bonds Decline. Treasury 10-Year Yield Falls for Fifth Week Amid European Crisis. Euro-Region Debt Rises to Highest in Single Currency History. Apple Profit Rises 94% on Growing Global Demand for iPhones. Bernanke Says Prepared to Do More After Fed Leaves Policy Unchanged. Spains Ratings Cut by S&P on Deficit, Bank Bailout Concern. Stocks Climb as Earnings Overshadow GDP Data; Euro Rallies. US Equities Drop as Manufacturing Cools and Spain Enters Recession.
139
1 2 3 5 7 6 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 14 17
5/21 5/23 5/25 5/30
16
20 18 19 21 22
5/3
5/7
5/9
5/11
5/15
5/17
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Event US and Chinese Manufacturing Grows at Fastest Pace in a Year. Payroll Survey Signals US Jobs Slowing as Orders Drop. Services Slowdown Signals US Growth May Cool. Job Gain Trails Forecasts on US Slowdown Concern; EU Manufacturing and Svcs Shrink. German Manufacturing Orders Increase More Than Forecast. Factories in US Grew Less Optimistic About Sales, ISM Says. Greek Euro-Exit Talk Goes Public as Officials Air Doubts. Jobless Claims Allay Concern on US Labor Market. Consumer Sentiment in US Climbs to Four-Year High. Euro-Area Industrial Output Unexpectedly Fell in March. Euro-Area Economy Avoids Recession on German Growth. Several on FOMC Said Easing May Be Needed If Recovery Slows. ECB Stops Lending to Some Greek Banks Amid Draghi Exit Talk. Fed May Favor Another Twist If Growth Diminishes. EU to Accelerate Aid Payments to Spain on Development Projects. OECD Says Spiraling Euro-Area Crisis May Hurt World Economy. UK Retail Sales Fall Most in 2 Years as Rain Hits Demand. Europe Manufacturing Shrinks, German Confidence Drops. Merkel Considers Debt-Sharing Plan as Monti Sees Euro Bonds. Consumer Confidence in US Falls to Four-Month Low. Feds Rosengren Calls for Easing to Boost Economy, Create Jobs. Labor Market in US Cools as Jobless Claims Increase.
140
13
1350
21 14 15 16 18 17 20 19
12 11 5 4 1 3 2
6/1 6/5 6/7 6/11 6/13 6/15 6/19
7 6
9 10 8
6/21
6/25
6/27
6/29
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Date 6/1 6/4 6/5 6/6 6/7 6/8 6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 6/18 6/19 6/20 6/21 6/22 6/25 6/26 6/27 6/28 6/29
Event Treasuries Surge as Dow Erases 2012 Gain After U.S Jobs Report. Factory Orders in U.S. Unexpectedly Dropped in April. Spain Minister Urges EU Aid for Banks in First Plea for Help. Draghi Says ECB Stands Ready to Act' Lockhart Says Extending Operation Twist 'On the Table.' China Rate Cut Counters Slowdown as PBOC Eases Loan Restrictions. Chinas Consumer Prices Rise at Slowest Pace in Two Years. Fed Says U.S. Wealth Fell 38.8% in 2007-2010 on Home Values. Euro-Area Crisis Threatens Emerging Markets, World Bank Says. Drop in Retail Sales Points to Slower Growth; EU Industrial Output Falls For 2nd Straight Month. OPEC Maintains Oil Quota as Price Decline Brings Compromise. Signs of U.S. Weakness Mount on Confidence, Output. Euro Crisis Shifts to Spain as Merkel Faces G-20 Pressure. Job Openings in U.S. Decrease by Most in Almost Four Years. Fed Officials Sees Lower U.S. Growth; Expands Operation Twist Through Year End. Manufacturing Slump Deepens From Euro Area to China. German Business Confidence Drops to a Two-Year Low. Home Sales Reach Two-Year High as U.S. Rates Fall. Home Prices in U.S. Decline at Slowest Pace Since 2010. Slowdown Concern Ebbs on Durables, U.S. Home Sales. Euro-Area Confidence Slumps, German Unemployment Rises. Consumer Sentiment in U.S. Falls to Lowest Since December.
141
21
1380
13 2 3 10 11 15 16 8 17
7/17 7/19 7/23 7/25 7/27
12 9 7
19 14
20
1360
1 4
1340
6 5
18
1320 7/2
Date 7/2 7/3 7/5 7/6 7/9 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/16 7/17 7/18 7/19 7/20 7/23 7/24 7/25 7/26 7/27 7/30 7/31
7/5
7/9
7/11
7/13
7/31
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Event Manufacturing in US Unexpectedly Shrank in June. Barclays Three Top Leaders Quit Amid Bank of England Dispute. Euro, Stocks Retreat With Italy, Spain Bonds as ECB Disappoints. US Payroll Gain Trails Forecast as Outlook Dims. Spanish 10-Year Bond Yield Tops 7%; Lacker Says US May Be Close to Full Employment. US Stocks Fall on Earnings as Commodities Slump, Euro Weakens. Some on FOMC Said More Stimulus Probably Will Be Needed. Stocks Fall With Euro on Growth Concern; Confidence in US Stagnates as Employment Slows. Stocks Surge as JPMorgan Jumps; Visa & MasterCard Settle Antitrust Swipe-Fee Suit. Yahoo Names Googles Marissa Mayer Chief Executive Officer. Intels Sales Forecast Misses Some Analysts Estimates. Bernanke Says Fed Can Remove Punch Bowl to Limit Inflation. Google Revenue Surges on Motorola Deal, Growth in Ad Clicks; S&P 500 Hits Two-Month High. Euro Bailout Bid Gets Vote of No-Confidence as Markets Drop. Bond Yields Fall to Records as Stocks, Euro Slide on Debt Crisis; German Debt Outlook Cut. Apple Falls Short of Analysts Expectations Amid iPhone Slump. Stocks Surge Toward Close as WSJ reports that Fed May Announce Further Accommodation. US Stocks, Commodities Gain on Draghi Pledge as Euro Advances. Growth Slows as US Consumers Restrain Spending. Euro-Area Economic Confidence Drops More Than Forecast. US Consumer Confidence Index Unexpectedly Rose in July.
142
5 4 3 1
6 7
10 11 8 9
12
13 14
15 19 20 21 17 16 18 22 23
2
8/3 8/7 8/9 8/13 8/15 8/17 8/21 8/23 8/27 8/29 8/31
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
Event Fed Says Economy Slowed, Foreshadows Steps to Boost Growth. Stocks and Spanish Bonds Decline After Draghi Fails to Reassure Investors. US Jobs Gains Topping Forecasts Ease Concern; Services Sector Grows. Fed Says Banks Easing Standards on Business, Consumer Loans. S&P Revises Greece Outlook to Negative. Productivity Rebounds as US Employers Curb Costs. Jobless Claims Fall in Sign US Job Market Mending. China Export Growth Collapses as World Economic Recovery Slows. Homebuilders Surge With US New-House Sales 50% Below Average. Retail Sales in US Jumped More Than Forecast. Homebuilder Confidence in US Increases to Five-Year High. Building Permits in US Increase to Four-Year High. Consumer Sentiment in US Unexpectedly Rose in August. EU Leaders Plan Talks as Report Says ECB Mulling Bond Targets. Dell Revenue Forecast Misses Estimates as PCs Continue Slump. Many on FOMC Favored Easing Soon If No Sustained Growth Gain. Jobless Claims in US Climb While Confidence Sours. Bernanke Sees Further Scope for Easing to Spur US Economy. Feds Evans Urges Open Ended Purchases to Boost Economy. Consumer Confidence in US Declines by Most Since October. US Second-Quarter Growth Exceeds Prior Estimate. Stocks Drop With Euro as Spain Delays Decision on Bailout Funds. Bernanke Says Bond Purchases an Option to Cut Unemployment.
143
12 9 10 11 4 3 5 6 7 8 13
14
16
15
18 17 19
2 1
9/4
Date 9/4 9/5 9/6 9/7 9/10 9/11 9/12 9/13 9/14 9/17 9/18 9/19 9/20 9/21 9/24 9/25 9/26 9/27 9/28
9/6
9/10
9/12
9/14
9/18
9/20
9/24
9/26
9/28
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Event Manufacturing in U.S. Shrinks for Third Straight Month. Draghis Plan Said to Pledge Unlimited, Sterilized Bond Buys. US Svcs Industries Expand at Faster Pace Than Forecast; Jobless Claims Fall; S&P 500 at 4-Yr High. Payrolls Trailing Forecasts Spur U.S. Stimulus Talk. Stocks Fall With Euro on Greece Concern While Commodities Gain. Trade Gap in U.S. Widens as Exports Start to Wane. German Court Gives Merkel Win Backing Permanent Rescue Fund; AAPL Unveils iPhone 5. Fed Undertakes QE3 With $40 Billion MBS Purchases Per Month. Surprise US Factory Drop Highlights Outlook Risk. Manufacturing in New York Region Shrinks More Than Forecast. Feds Evans Says QE3 Can Make Economy More Resilient to Risk. Housing Market Recovery Helping Bolster U.S. Expansion. Oracle Revenue Falls Short of Estimates as Hardware Sales Drop. Greek Leaders Struggle With Spending Cuts as Troika Set to Leave. Caterpillar Cuts 2015 Earnings Outlook as Mining Spending Falls. Stocks Drop on Global Growth Concern; Consumer Confidence Hits 7-Month High. Feds Evans Defends QE3 While Warning of U.S. Lost Decade. Plunge in Goods Orders May Restrain U.S. Expansion; US Economy Expands Less Than Forecast. Chicago PMI Declines to 49.7; Lowest Reading Since September 2009.
144
5
1465
4 1 3 6 7 2 8 10 9 11 12
13
14
15 16 21 17 18 19 20 22
10/3
10/5
10/9
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Event Manufacturing in US Unexpectedly Grows on Orders; EU Unemployment Rises to Record 11.4%. Bernanke Seeks Gains for Equities in Push for Jobs. US Service Industries Expand At Fastest Pace In Six Months. Draghi Says ECB is Ready to Start Buying Government Bonds. Surprise Decline in Unemployment Gives Obama Boost. IMF Sees Alarmingly High Risk of Deeper Global Growth Slump. Alcoa Earnings Exceed Estimates After Productivity Improves. Fed Says Economy Grows Modestly as Housing, Autos Improve. Jobless Claims in US Decrease to Four-Year Low. Consumer Sentiment in US Unexpectedly Climbed in October. Retail Sales Beating Forecasts Support US Growth. Industrial Output Rises in Sign US Is Stabilizing. Housing Starts Jump 15% to Four-Year US High. Google Reports Earnings Ahead of Schedule, Sales That Miss Analysts Estimates Stocks Drop Most Since June on Weak Earnings as Metals, Oil Retreat. Texas Instruments Forecasts Earnings That May Miss Estimates. Facebook Sales Exceed Estimates; AAPL Launches iPad Mini. As Expected, Fed Calls Growth Moderate While Maintaining Bond Purchases. Apple Forecasts Profit Shy of Estimates as Product Costs Rise. US Growth Exceeds Forecasts on Consumer and Government Spending. US Equity Markets Closed Monday and Tuesday Due to Hurricane Sandy. US Equity Markets Reopen As Workers in Mid Atlantic Region Struggle to Get Back to Work.
145
1425
2 1 3
4 16 5 6 7 8 12 9 10 13 14 15 17 18 20 21 19
1400
1375
1350
11
1325 11/1
Date 11/1 11/2 11/5 11/6 11/7 11/8 11/9 11/12 11/13 11/14 11/15 11/16 11/19 11/20 11/21 11/23 11/26 11/27 11/28 11/29 11/30
11/5
11/7
11/9
11/13
11/15
11/19
11/21
11/26
11/28
11/30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
Event Factories to Shoppers Show US Weathers World Slowdown. Payroll Gains Aid US Expansion Before Election. US Service Industries Show Expansions Resilience. German Manufacturing Orders Slump the Most in a Year. Obama Re-Elected, Dow Tumbles Most in Year, Treasuries Rally on Budget Showdown. Draghi Says ECB Stands Ready to Buy Bonds as Economy Weakens. Consumer Sentiment in US Rises to Five-Year High. Jefferies Agrees to Sell Itself to Leucadia in $2.8 Billion Deal. Geithner Says Higher US Income Tax Rates Cant Be Avoided. Dow Sinks to Lowest Since June on Budget, Israel and Decline in Retail Sales. Jobless Claims Jump as Sandy Hurts US Factories. Equities Stage Intraday Rebound on Optimism Regarding Fiscal Cliff Resolution. France Loses AAA Rating at Moodys; US Stocks Rally on Budget Optimism. HP Takes $8.8 Billion Charge Citing Autonomy Falsifications. Stocks Rise While Treasuries Fall as Israel, Hamas Reach Truce. Germanys Business Confidence Unexpectedly Increases. Stocks Decline as US Budget, Greek Aid Loom. Consumer Confidence Gains as US Home Prices Climb. Builders in US Sell Fewer New Homes Than Forecast. Jobless Claims in US Decrease as Sandy Effect Dissipates. US Business Activity Grows for First Time in Three Months; S&P 500 Ekes Out Gain For The Month.
146
13 12 7 9 11 14 15 10 18 20 16 17 19
1 3 2 4 5
12/5
12/7
12/11
12/13
12/17
12/19
12/21
12/26
12/28
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Event Manufacturing Contracts in US on Fiscal Concern; Rosengren Sees Case For Asset Purchases. Obama Sets Higher Top Tax Rate as Precursor to Fiscal Deal. Services in U.S. Unexpectedly Expand at Faster Pace; ADP Employment Rises By 118K. Household Net Worth in U.S. Increases by $1.72 Trillion. Job Growth Beats Forecasts as Unemployment Falls. Treasury Announces Plan to Exit AIG Stake. Dow Erases Post-Election Drop as US Treasuries Retreat. Fed Officials Forecast Main Rate to Stay Near Zero Until 2015; Announces Further Asset Purchases. Retail Sales Rebound as Jobless Claims Fall in U.S. Industrial Production Jumps Most in Two Years as Factories Recover From Sandy. US Stocks Advance While Treasuries Retreat Amid Perceived Progress in Budget Talks. DJIA Posts Back to Back Triple Digit Gains on Perceived Progress in Fiscal Cliff Talks. US Stocks Drop on Budget Concern While Euro, Treasuries Gain. Equities Rally on Boehner Comments; IntercontinentalExchange to Acquire NYSE for $8.2 Billion. Stocks Tumble on U.S. Budget Concerns As Boehner Pulls House Plan B Bill Due to Lack of Votes. Yen Weakens to 20-Month Low on Abes BOJ Pledge. Geithner Warns Lawmakers Deficit Standoff Risks U.S. Default. Equities Stage Late Rally After House Plans to Convene on Sunday at 6:30 PM. US Stocks Fall for Fifth Day, Treasuries Gain as Cliff Looms. Budget Talks Making Progress on Tax Increase as Deadline Looms.
147
Interpretation If any provision of this Agreement is found invalid or unenforceable, that provision will be enforced to the maximum extent permissible, and the other provisions of the Agreement will remain in force. This Agreement states the entire agreement between you and us relating to use of the Site or the Service. This Agreement may not be amended except as provided above. Contact If you have any questions, concerns or comments, please email info@bespokeinvest.com.
148