PERSPECTIVES

Can We Reduce the Rate of Growth of Car Ownership?

Akshima T Ghate, S Sundar

and do not require car owners to pay for the externalities of car use. Level of Car Ownership, 2025 Today in India, the average level of car ownership is 13 per 1,000 population and of two-wheelers, 84 per 1,000 (GOI 2011; MORTH 2012). The average level of car ownership of 13 per 1,000 by itself may not seem high. However, it has to be recognised that this average is a result of some cities like Delhi, Chennai, and Coimbatore owning more than 100 cars per 1,000. While it is widely accepted that increase in car ownership will be inevitable with economic growth and some might even argue that growth in car ownership is desirable, it is important to come to grips with the rate at which car ownership will grow and the number of cars that will ply on Indias roads in 2025. The authors took a random sample of countries with different levels of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in 2009 and plotted the pattern of car ownership in those countries (Figure 1, p 33).1 The exercise reveals that in countries with per capita GDP between $600 and $2,500, the average car ownership was about 18 cars per 1,000 persons. India belonged to this group of countries in 2009 with a per capita GDP level of $1,127 and an ownership level of 12 cars per 1,000 population. It also reveals that the average level of ownership of cars increases to around 85 per 1,000 in countries in the next higher income bracket, i e, countries with per capita GDP ranging from $2,500 to $5,000, an increase of almost ve times. India will enter this bracket of countries in the next 10-15 years with a likely increase of about four to ve times in the level of car ownership. With an average annual growth of 7.5%,3 Indias per capita GDP will be around $3,500 in 2025, which is the level at which China was in 2009.4 If by 2025 we reach the Chinese car ownership level in 2009, we would have 34 cars per 1,000 population, i e, about 47 million cars on Indias roads by 2025 as compared to 15 million cars in 2011.5
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The average level of ownership of cars in India, currently 13 per 1,000 population, is expected to grow exponentially. Estimating the average level of ownership in 2025 at 35 per 1,000, this article points out that the growing number of cars has serious implications for energy security, air pollution, road safety, and equitable allocation of road space, and argues that there is an urgent need for India to learn from the experiences of cities that have decoupled car ownership from economic growth, and reduce the rate of growth of car ownership in India.

Akshima T Ghate (akshima@teri.res.in) is with the Centre for Research on Sustainable Urban Development and Transport Systems, Sustainable Habitat Division, The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi. S Sundar (ssundar@teri.res.in) is with The Energy and Resources Institute, and is HUDCO Chair Professor, TERI University.

an we reduce the rate of growth of car ownership in India? The likely answer will be an emphatic no from those whose incomes are rising and who aspire to own a car. Owning a car is aspirational and also a status symbol. A study by The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) has shown that when per capita income grows by 1%, the level of car ownership grows by 1.7% (TERI 2006a). Also, as incomes rise, those in the upper middle class who already own a car are likely to buy a second or a third. This is what happened in the developed countries of the world and is happening in the other emerging countries. There is no reason why this will not happen in India. Besides, we are allowing our cities to become urban sprawls and doing little to integrate land use with transport planning, thereby encouraging our cities to become car dependent. India has also emerged as a major market for cars. Almost all the major automakers from across the world are manufacturing cars in India; from about 0.2 million cars manufactured in India in 1991, about three million cars are being manufactured today (SIAM various years). The government envisages India to become the global hub for the manufacture and export of small cars; this necessarily requires strong support from the domestic market. In fact, the Automotive Mission Plan 2006-16 of the Ministry of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises expects the domestic market for small cars to grow even as the National Urban Transport Policy (NUTP) discourages the use of personal vehicles and encourages a shift to public transport. Public policies are skewed in favour of personal cars as opposed to public transport and non-motorised transport (NMT); they encourage easy ownership of cars
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Figure 1: Car Ownership in Countries at Different Levels of Economic Growth
600 Passenger car ownership per 1,000 population
503 400

500

400
286

300
187 153 85 18

200

100

0 0
Source: Authors2

5000

10,000

15,000

20,000 25,000 30,000 GDP per capita in current $

35,000

40,000

45,000

This would imply an addition of about 32 million new cars between 2011 and 2025 or an increase of about 2.3 million cars per year between 2011 and 2025. The number may seem way too high to be added just in a matter of the next 12 years, but this increase is not unrealistic if past trends are to be a guide. We have added more cars in the last decade (2001-11) than we did over the rst ve decades since Independence (1951-2000); 8.5 million cars were added between 2001 and 2011 as compared to seven million cars from 1951 to 2000 (MORTH various years). The rst year of this decade (2010-11) alone has seen an addition of nearly two million new cars. The current trends in car sales and projections into the future on the basis of these trends also indicate that it would not be unrealistic to project the number of cars on Indias roads at around 47 million by 2025. In fact, this may be a conservative estimate if we consider the sales trends. About 2.5 million cars were sold in the country in 2010-11,6 and even if this sales volume was to grow at an average growth rate of about 5% annually till 2025, which is low, it would lead to an addition of about 51 million new cars by 2025. Most countries have a policy for phasing out old cars, usually 15 years old, and scrapping them. India has no such policy. However, the Motor Vehicles Act requires passenger cars to undergo tness tests after 15 years and then be re-registered. As most cars after 15 years are not re-registered, there are no reliable
Economic & Political Weekly EPW

statistics as to how many of them have been taken off the roads. Assuming that about 50% (7.5 million) of the cars that were registered till 2011 (15 million) and would be completing 15 years by 2025 are taken off the roads, and the remaining 50% are re-registered, then we would have nearly 59 million cars plying on our roads, i e, an ownership level of about 42 cars per 1,000 population. Another way to estimate the likely growth in the number of cars is to project the increase in the number of middle-class households who have the capacity to buy a car, and on that basis, estimate the likely growth in car ownership. McKinsey Global Institute (2007) projects that by 2025, we will have about 128 million middle-class7 households as compared to 13 million in 2005, and that 25% or 33.1 million of these 128 million middle income households will have an annual income between Rs 5 lakh and 10 lakh8 as compared to 2.4 million households in this category in 2005. And, if the newly emerging 31 million households in this income bracket were to own at least one car per household then around 31 million new cars would be added between 2005 and 2025. Car ownership will also go up on account of increase in the number of richer households, i e, households with an annual income more than Rs 10 lakh. 8.3 million new households are expected to be added to this category between 2005 and 2025, and if each of these households was to buy a second car, the number of additional cars would be

about eight million, taking the total number of cars added to Indias roads to 39 million by 2025. Thus, whatever the methodology used to project the number of cars in India by 2025, an addition of at least 30 million new cars or 35 cars/1,000 population seems inevitable. These estimates are also close to the estimates made by others. For instance, ADB (2006) estimates car ownership level for India as 30 cars per 1,000 persons in 2025.9 These numbers can be expected to increase dramatically if Indias per capita income reaches levels higher than those used in these estimates. As per Chamon et al (2008: 243), car ownership is low up to per capita incomes of about USD 5,00010 and then takes off very rapidly. This exponential growth in the number of cars on Indias roads would have major implications for Indias energy security, contribution to global carbon dioxide (CO2), air and noise pollution in Indian cities, trafc-related morbidity and mortality, increased travel time, etc. These implications are almost palpable in some of our cities where the current level of car ownership is higher than the projected level of 35 cars per 1,000 population in 2025. Delhi has an ownership level of 157 cars per 1,000 population, followed by Chennai (127) and Coimbatore (125), while cities like Pune (92 cars per 1,000 population), Thane (98), Bangalore (85), and Hyderabad (72) are fast approaching the 100 cars per 1,000 population mark (GoI 2011; MoRTH 2012). Figure 2 (p 34) shows car ownership levels in 39 out of the 53 million-plus cities in 2011 for which data is available. It would be seen that already 30 cities have an ownership level above 35 cars per 1,000. Implications of Unfettered Growth Implications for Energy Security: The transport sector in India consumes about 18% of Indias commercial energy, second only to industry, which consumes about 42% (TERI 2012). The sector is the largest consumer of petroleum products at 55%,12 with 98% of transport fuel being petroleum products and electricity accounting for the remaining 2%
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Figure 2: Car Ownership Levels in 39 Out of 53 Million-Plus Cities in 2011 for Which Data Is Available
Delhi Chennai Coimbatore Thane Pune Bangalore Hyderabad Jaipur Navi Mumbai Indore Vadodra Lucknow Pimpri Chinchwad Allahabad Ghaziabad Patna Jodhpur Bhopal Srinagar Greater Mumbai Kolkata Ahmedabad Madurai Nagpur Visakhapatnam Vijaywada Raipur Meerut Kanpur Jabalpur Varanasi Kota Agra Gwalior Nashik Surat Kalyan/Dombivali Solapur Aurangabad 0 Source: Authors.11 35

are low, leading to higher fuel consumption. In Delhi alone, it has been estimated that the fuel loss due to idling of vehicles is more than Rs 1,000 crore per annum.14 Slow speeds also lead to increase in travel time, resulting in loss of productivity. Implications for Air Pollution and CO2 Emissions: Growth in the number of personal vehicles also leads to increasing levels of vehicular pollution in cities. It is interesting to note that all cities with high car ownership levels have PM10 concentrations, above the standards set by the World Health Organisation (WHO) (Figure 4, p 35). PM2.5, a more dangerous pollutant, which is directly correlated with serious health impacts like childhood asthma, respiratory diseases, etc, is not being monitored in our cities. However, the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) measured PM2.5 emissions in six cities where source apportionment studies were carried out. Data published for these six cities, which have high car ownership levels, indicates that the concentration levels of PM2.5 are beyond the permissible limits prescribed by the WHO (Figure 5, p 35). Diesel cars are also a major contributor to nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which cause or worsen respiratory diseases, such as emphysema and bronchitis, and may also aggravate existing heart diseases. The distortion in pricing of diesel has resulted in an increase in the sale of diesel cars. Rapid growth in the number of personal vehicles in larger cities of the country also contributes to increasing CO2 emission levels (Ghate and Sundar 2010). The impacts of vehicular emissions of both criteria pollutants and CO2 on human health and global warming are signicant. Indian polity and economy pay a huge price for the use of cars by a minority. Even if these externalities cannot be altogether eliminated, it is time that their costs are measured and recovered from car users. Implications for Road Safety: As can be seen in Figure 6 (p 35), cities with a larger number of cars also have more road accidents. Speed is the main culprit on roads where high speeds are possible, and modern cars are designed for high
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Expected average car ownership level in India in 2025

70 Cars per 1,000 population

105

140

175

Figure 3: Average Journey Speeds on Major Corridors during Peak Hours in Select Cities in 2007
Cities with car ownership levels above 35 cars/1,000 population typically have slow speeds 30 Average journey speed on major corridors (KMPH) Minimum 16 Kmph Average 22 Kmph Maximum 30 Kmph

25

20

15

10 Thiruvananthapuram Bhubaneswar Ahmedabad Hyderabad Panaji Shimla Bikaner Guwahati Varanasi Jaipur Agra Chandigarh Chennai Patna Bangalore Madurai Amritsar Gangtok Puducherry Nagpur Kolkata Bhopal Kochi Kanpur Rajpur Surat Pune Delhi Hubli-Dharward Mumbai

Source: MoUD and WSA (2008).

(TERI 2012). Of the 204 million tonnes crude oil processed in the country in 2011-12, about 85% (172 million tonnes) was imported at a cost of Rs 6,72,220 crore.13 This dependence on imports is expected to increase to 90% of the 757 million tonnes of oil equivalent (mtoe) by 2030 (TERI 2006b). This increased dependence on imports, driven largely by the transport sector would pose a serious threat to Indias energy security. This threat would be further aggravated by the geopolitical instability in the
34

countries from where we import crude oil and petroleum products. The increasing number of cars in cities further accentuates the demand for fuel due to congestion, idling and low speeds. When fuel efciency standards are eventually introduced, they would only help to improve the fuel economy of new cars as they come into the market, but will do little to avoid loss of fuel due to idling, congestion and low speeds. Figure 3 shows that the average journey speeds in cities with high car ownership
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Figure 4: PM10 Concentration Levels (in 2008) in Cities with High Car Ownership Levels
Annual mean PM10 (ug/m3) Kanpur Delhi Lucknow Indore Kolkata Greater Mumbai Allahabad Patna Meerut

speeds. India holds the dubious distinction of having the highest trafc-related morbidity and mortality rates in the world. There were more than 1,42,000 deaths from road accidents in 2011; about 37% of these deaths were in urban India (MoRTH 2012).

city governments like Delhi or large metropolitan/municipal corporations, one would nd that a major chunk of investment in transport infrastructure is for creating more road space, yovers, parking lots, urban expressways, etc, leading to the vicious cycle of more cars, more road space and even more cars. As Hau (1997) explains,
Downss law a transportation example of a more general principle commonly known as the tragedy of the commons says that an increase in trafc capacity on commuter expressways in urban areas results in a rise in travel demand that erodes much of the capacity-enhanced trafc improvement. (Expressed in colloquial terms, Downss law says that if you build them, they will come.)

Issues of Equity: Most importantly, the exponential increase in the number of Nagpur cars, together with policies Bhopal that are skewed in favour Vijaywada of increasing motorisation, Bangalore WHO standard 20ug/m3 have squeezed out the peHyderabad destrians and users of nonVisakhapatnam Ahmedabad motorised transport (NMT) Vadodra from urban roads. This inCoimbatore equity in the usage of road Chennai space, or the denial by a 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 small number of car users Source: Authors.15 of the mobility rights of a Figure 5: PM2.5 Concentration Levels in Select Cities with High Car large number of others, is a Ownership Levels major challenge that has not Kerbside PM2.5 levels (24-hour mean) in select cities All these cities have car ownership level above even been recognised, let 35 cars/1,000 population Pune alone addressed. Interestingly, the share of this comMumbai muter category pedestrians, Summer Post-monsoon cyclists, and public transit Kanpur Winter users ranges from about Delhi 40% in cities with population less than 0.5 million to Chennai about 75% in cities with WHO standard for 24-hour mean value 20ug/m3 population above eight milBangalore lion (Figure 7, p 36). 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 PM 2.5 24-hour mean concentration level (ug/m3) Yet, if one were to examSource: Authors.16 ine the annual budgets of
Jaipur Pune

Figure 6: Road Accidents in Select Cities in 2005

10,000 9,000 8,000 Number of road accidents 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Hyderabad Ahmedabad Bhubaneswar Panaji Jaipur Thiruvananthapuram Guwahati Bikaner Gangtok Chennai Shimla Patna Agra Chandigarh Bangalore Hubli-Dharwad Puducherry Amritsar Varanasi Kolkata Pune Surat Madurai Raipur Nagpur Kanpur Delhi Kochi Bhopal 0 Cities with car ownership levels above 35 cars/1,000 population typically have more number of road accidents

Source: Authors.17
Economic & Political Weekly EPW

According to Tiwari (2007), between 2002-03 and 2006-07, the total funds allocated in Delhi for the transport sector doubled, but 80% of the funds allocated were for road-widening schemes beneting primarily the car and two-wheeler users. A review of the Comprehensive Mobility Plans (CMPs) of ve18 cities carried out by the authors also revealed that while the CMPs recognised the need for encouraging pedestrians and NMT, they contained no investment proposals or projects to achieve this objective (Ghate and Sundar 2012). In fact, in India, we have done very little to provide facilities for walking and cycling, such as shelters, water kiosks, cycle tracks, cycle parking, etc. On the contrary, we have allowed our pavements and cycle tracks to become parking spaces for cars. China, on the other hand, provides shelter, water kiosks and halting places for pedestrians and users of NMT. They have also introduced bike sharing schemes in their larger cities to encourage NMT. Today, some 30-50% of trips in our mega cities19 and 40-60% of trips in second order cities20 are carried out by walking or cycling (MoUD and WSA 2008). It would be in our interest to retain this percentage and make them modes of choice rather than of compulsion. All this is not to belittle the contribution of the automobile industry to Indias growth story. The industry contributed 6% to Indias GDP in 2010-11 and has provided direct and indirect employment to 13.1 million workers (MoHIPE 2012). It is becoming the global hub for small cars and
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Figure 7: Modal Share in Indian Cities in 2007
Cycle Public transport Modal share (%) Indian cities (2007) Two-wheelers IPT Car

100

80

60

40
Walk

20

<0.5 million (hilly terrain)

<0.5 million (plain terrain)

0.5-1 million

1.2 million

2-4 million

4.8 million

>8 million

City population size

Source: MoUD and WSA (2008).

Policy Interventions Elsewhere It would be useful at this stage to look at the experience of some cities and countries that have had the wisdom to arrest the rapid growth in car ownership in order to make their cities liveable. The larger cities in China, namely Shanghai,
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Cars per 1,000 population

is emerging as a major export earner. More than all this, the automobile industry has generated pride and a sense of modernism in the minds of most Indians. These indeed are positives and should be recognised. At the same time, these positives need to be weighed against the externalities and the costs of these externalities. It is true that owning a car is fullling an aspiration. It is also true that our failure to provide adequate and appropriate public transport has compelled commuters to use personal vehicles. But, these clearly are no reasons as to why we should accept an unabated growth in the number of cars as inevitable and orient all our planning to meet this growth. Many cities in the world have shown that this rapid increase in the rate of growth of car ownership can be arrested through appropriate policy interventions without denying the mobility rights of car users. There is no reason why India should not benet from the experience of others and attempt to contain the growth in the number of cars. The need for these interventions is urgent because the infrastructure we build now will inuence our transport policies and practices for the next 50-100 years. Retrotting at a later stage will never be easy.

Guangzhou and Beijing, have introduced quotas for the number of cars that can be registered per month. Beijing, for instance, allowed only 20,000 cars to be registered per month in 2011, which was 70% less than the number registered in 2010.21 Shanghai adopts a car quota system, which allows only 7,000-8,000 cars to be registered per month (Roychowdhury 2010). Guangzhou allows only 10,000 car registrations per month.22 Even as these cities have restricted the registration of cars, they have made massive investments in public transit systems and NMT in order to provide car users with an acceptable alternative. In India, on the other hand, cities like Delhi and Bangalore register more than 30,000 cars per month or 1,000-1,200 car registrations per day. Many other cities are fast approaching this level of new car registrations. Urban road space will never be able to match the growth in the number of cars and inevitably many of our cities will see a traf- Figure 8: Low Car Ownership in Hong Kong and Singapore as Compared Many Other Countries with Similar Economic Growth Levels c gridlock at the end of to 600 this decade. Japan requires a 480 Parking Space Certicate before a car is reg360 istered. Parking spaces, if not available at the 240 applicants residence, can be rented, but usuSingapore ally at exorbitant costs. 120 It would be interesting to Hong Kong point out here that the 0 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 45000 50000 Ministry of Urban DeveGDP per capita lopment had sought a Source: Authors.25
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similar provision in the Motor Vehicles Act, and the Expert Committee set up under the chairmanship of the second author (S Sundar) has recommended that the Motor Vehicles Act be amended to provide for this.23 One can only hope that the Government of India would have the wisdom to accept this recommendation and enable cities to link the registration of a new car with the availability of a parking space. Japan, in addition, has made the purchase of a car prohibitive through taxes, such as a car acquisition tax, car weight tax and annual tax, together with high on-street parking charges. These various measures have affected the rate of increase in car ownership in Japan. Annual rate of growth of cars in use in Japan was 1% between 2001 and 2009 as compared to about 5% between 1991 and 2000. New car registration in Japan has declined at a rate of about 1.1% per annum between 1991 and 2009.24 London has attempted to restrain the use of personal cars, if not their ownership, through the levy of congestion charges in central London and the simultaneous provision of increased and better public transport. London is encouraging large employers to draw up mobility plans for their staff that are not car dependent. The city is also using parking regulation, pricing and controls for transport demand management. Singapore and Hong Kong are two other striking examples of city states that have been very successful in decoupling economic growth from car ownership as compared to other countries/city-states with similar levels of prosperity (Figure 8).

Percentage share

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Interestingly, some of our larger cities, although nowhere near Hong Kong and Singapore in terms of per capita GDP, have overtaken these two cities in terms of car ownership without any thought as to the consequences. Figure 9 charts this, while Figure 10 establishes that car registrations in these cities have witnessed an annual average growth rate of 10-20% as compared to 5.5% in Singapore and 3.3% in Hong Kong between 2005 and 2011. Delhi presently has 2.1 million cars, and if this level is to grow at a rate of 12% per annum, which is the rate at which it is currently growing, then it would have approximately 10 million cars by 2025, i e, 380 cars per 1,000.26 This is a number that Delhi can in no way handle. Singapore and Hong Kong feature among the top 50 wealthiest cities in the
Figure 9: Comparison of Car Ownership Level in Indian Cities with Hong Kong and Singapore27
GDP per capita in 2008 ($1,000 at PPP)
Car ownership in 2011 (per 1,000 population)
60 50 40 30 20 10 80 40 0 200

GDP per capita in 2008 ($1,000 at PPP)

mobility for all rather than plan for mobility for automobiles. One of the important goals behind these city states initiatives to control car ownership was to ensure that the growth in the number of cars did not exceed the growth in road infrastructure and that there was economic and equitable use of available road space. A study in 1976 in Hong Kong had indicated that threequarters of the road space were being used by only a quarter of the travelling population, namely motorists and taxi occupants (Hau 1997). This had forced the government to think of a sound strategy that ensured optimal utilisation of road space. Hong Kong has since undertaken several initiatives to control car ownership and usage, while also providing competing, reliable and more environmentfriendly alternatives for mobility. Singapore has also followed a similar path:
Building more roads and maximising road capacity alone will not be able to ensure smooth owing roads. We need to adopt a vehicle ownership policy which could keep the car population at levels supportable by road infrastructure development as well as planned developments in public transport and trafc management system (Ministry of Transport, Singapore).31

within a catchment area of 500 metres around transit stations, leading to high usage of mass transit modes.32 In India, unfortunately, land use and transport planning are not integrated; transport planning follows land use planning and transport demand. While the NUTP has recognised this need and urged cities to integrate land use and transport planning, the regulatory framework does not yet make this necessary. The legislations like Development Acts or Town and Country Planning Acts that provide the basis for land use planning in cities should mandate the integration of land use planning with transport planning. (ii) Conservative Approach to Creating More Road Space: Both Singapore and Hong Kong have recognised that more road space for cars would only lead to more cars, congestion and suboptimal and inequitable utilisation of road space. The two city states have therefore avoided expansion of road space in a big way. Between 1995 and 2011, the annual growth rate in road length and road lane kilometres in Singapore was merely 1%.33 The city aims to further reduce the growth in road length to 0.5% per annum in the next 10 to 15 years.34 Hong Kong has also carried out a limited amount of new road construction over the past decade. The road length increased at an annual growth rate of 0.9% between 2000 and 2010.35 We, on the other hand, strongly believe that the immediate solution for dealing with a growth in car ownership is to provide for more road space. We also have an obsession with large civil contracts and works leading to building more roads, yovers and parking spaces. As pointed out earlier, substantial portions of public investment on transport infrastructure are not for increasing the availability of public transport or for making NMT a mode of choice. The emphasis of public investment is on creating more road space for more cars. (iii) Planning for NMT: Singapore and Hong Kong have built adequate and quality infrastructure for pedestrians and users of NMT. Hong Kong has pedestrianised several streets and employs
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160 Car ownership in 2011 120

Singapore

Bangalore

Source: Authors.28

Hyderabad

Mumbai

Hong Kong

Chennai

Delhi

Figure 10: Comparison of Growth in Car Registrations in Indian Cities with Hong Kong and Singapore
Total Car Registrations (2005 to 2011)
22,00,000 19,95,000 17,90,000 15,85,000 13,80,000 11.6%

A Plan for India It would be useful to discuss some of the key policy initiatives taken by Singapore and Hong Kong to restrain the growth in the number of cars and see whether these can be replicated in India.

Delhi

(i) Integrated Land Use and Transport Planning: Over the years, Singapore 9,70,000 Chennai and Hong Kong have inBangalore 7,65,000 15.4% tegrated land use and Singapore Hong Kong 8.5% transport planning to en5,60,000 6.6% 5.5% courage dense and mixed 3.3% 3,55,000 uses, and NMT. In SingaGr Mumbai Hyderabad 20.2% pore, nearly 40% of busi1,50,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 nesses and industrial arSource: Authors.29 eas are located near staworld today.30 The residents of these tions and 30% of the population lives cities can easily own cars, but the car within walking distance of mass rapid ownership level in these cities is low transit (MRT) stations. Almost 50% of because they wisely chose to plan for the population in Hong Kong lives
11,75,000
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trafc restrictions on several others to ensure safety of pedestrians and NMT users. Singapore has also taken a lead towards developing dedicated cycle tracks and bicycle parking facilities as part of its National Cycling Plan that was launched in 2010.36 We have, as discussed earlier, some 30-60% of total trips being met by NMT in our rst and second order cities. Although this is an optimum level, this is not by choice. The challenge is to take measures to make NMT safe and comfortable so that it becomes a transport mode of choice. The development of facilities for NMT should receive priority for funding under the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission (JNNURM). (iv) Public Transit: Singapore and Hong Kong have made signicant investments in rail- and bus-based transit systems so as to create a dense rail network that is integrated with the bus system. Rail network density (2008) in Singapore and Hong Kong is about 30.8 km per million persons and 30 km per million persons, respectively.37 In Delhi, the urban rail network density at 11 km per million persons is only a third of the densities in Singapore and Hong Kong.38 The number of buses per 1,000 persons is also high in Singapore and Hong Kong at 3.2 and 2.8 buses per 1,000 persons, respectively.39 Delhi, on the other hand, has merely 0.3 buses per 1,000 persons.40 In order to improve the efciency of public transit and to make it attractive to the commuters, Singapore and Hong Kong also employ several measures like exclusive right of way to public transit and priority to buses in trafc restriction zones. Thus, Singapore and Hong Kong, while restricting the ownership and use of personal vehicles, have taken steps to provide adequate public transport as an alternative. It is the lack of this alternative that compels people in Indian cities to own their own mode of transport. The NUTP and JNNURM recognised for the rst time the importance of public transport and provided incentives and funding for augmenting public transport. Even so, the availability of public transport in Indian cities is low. According to data available, only 20 cities had
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formal city bus services a few years ago. Although this number has gone up due to JNNURM support, the city bus services are still highly inadequate. Mass rapid transport through buses is being introduced in a small number of cities. Although, mass rapid transport through rail is a very expensive proposition and not within the reach of Indian cities, MRT systems have been successfully established in Delhi and are being introduced in a few other cities. However, reliable data is not available on the number of commuters who have shifted from the use of their personal vehicles to using the metro rail. (v) Restricting Car Ownership: Singapore controls new car registrations through its vehicle quota system. Those wanting to purchase a new car need to bid for a Certicate of Entitlement (CoE) to own and use a car for 10 years. CoEs reect the market price people are willing to pay, which is high due to the restriction on the number of cars that can be registered annually. The vehicle quota system has helped Singapore maintain its average annual growth rate in new car registrations below 5% during 2001-11.41 Singapore also discourages car ownership by increasing the upfront costs of owning cars. An Additional Registration Fee (ARF), which is 100-130% of the Open Market Value (OMV) of the car, is charged along with high excise duty (20% of the OMV) and special taxes on diesel vehicles.42 While Hong Kong does not have a vehicle quota system like Singapore, it also discourages car ownership by increasing the upfront cost of cars. A high First Registration Tax (FRT) up to 40-115% of taxable value of private cars is charged along with annual licence fees.43 Hong Kong has been able to restrict its average annual growth rate in car registration below 3% between 2001 and 2011.44 (vi) Inuencing Travellers Behaviour: Both Singapore and Hong Kong employ measures to inuence the behaviour of car users so as to discourage car use and promote a shift to public transport and NMT. High petrol taxes and duties are used in both these city states to increase
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the cost of car usage. As of November 2008, the retail price of petrol in Hong Kong ($1.95 per litre) was second highest among 174 countries of the world.45 In addition to increasing fuel prices, a slew of other measures like charging road usage fees, incentivising car users towards reduced usage of their cars, etc, are implemented in Singapore. Both citystates also use the availability of parking space and parking fees to restrain car use. Building standards in these two cities require provision of limited car parking space per 100 m2 of gross oor area in commercial areas, 0.2 in Singapore and 0.4 in Hong Kong (Barter 2011). Delhi on the other hand has a very high car parking space requirement of three Equivalent Car Spaces (ECS) per 100 m2 of oor area in commercial areas.46 (vii) Trafc Management: As stated earlier, congestion leads to avoidable losses of energy and travel time. It is hence important to ensure that the trafc movement on roads is efcient and average speeds are at least above 25 kmph. Hong Kong lays a signicant emphasis on trafc management so as to optimise the existing road system and avoid the need to create more road space. A state of the art Intelligent Transport System is operational in Hong Kong to manage trafc. It has helped the city achieve average speeds in the range of 20-40 kmph on the main corridors. The consequences of an unabated growth in the number of personal vehicles have to be ultimately borne by the cities in India. And yet, Indian cities are not empowered to shape their future. Urban transport is not an activity that is contained in Schedule 12 of the 74th constitutional amendment, and in any event cities are not empowered to take measures such as restricting the ownership of cars, demanding a parking space before registering a car, making fuel expensive, etc. It is imperative to include urban transport in Schedule 12 and transfer responsibility for managing urban transport to the cities so that they can shape their destinies. Even as cities are empowered, the Government of India must provide technical assistance to the cities to plan and manage urban transport and
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fund transport projects that are consistent with the NUTP. Unfortunately, both Indian states and cities also lack the institutional arrangements and capacity to plan, develop and manage urban transport with an appropriate inter-modal mix. Responsibility for urban transport is still fragmented between and within the national, state and city governments, and there is no unied agency to deal with all aspects of urban transport. Also, different aspects of urban transport are governed by different laws and regulations and there is no single or unied law to govern urban transport. It is time that we have a law to govern urban transport, and also establish in the large cities a Unied Metropolitan Transport Authority (UMTA) to deal with all aspects of urban transport. In Singapore for instance the Land Transport Authority functions as the unied transport decision-making body. In Hong Kong, it is the transport department of the government of the Hong Kong special administrative region. London was successful in introducing congestion charges to reduce the use of cars in central London and in providing acceptable public transport as an alternative because Mayor Ken Livingstone recognised the need for an integrated approach and established Transport for London. The measures undertaken by cities in China, Japan, Singapore, Hong Kong and the UK indicate that an appropriate mix of supply- and demand-side measures is required to restrain the ownership and use of cars. These measures do not involve any rocket science and are well within the reach of Indian cities and states. What is lacking in India is the political will to put together and implement these interventions. This continuing unwillingness to recognise the problem and take remedial measures would have very serious consequences by 2025, and beyond. As the country urbanises rapidly, its cities will witness an exponential growth in the number of private vehicles. Whether it is going to be 30 million more cars in the next 15 years, or 40 million, is not relevant. The message is clear, that the number would be humongous and
Economic & Political Weekly EPW

that unless we wake up now, neither cars, nor people would be able to move in our cities. If one may adapt and use an old English adage, wisdom lies in closing the garage doors before the cars speed away.
Notes
1 Per capita GDP is in current $. Uniform data after 2009 was not available and therefore analysis was done for 2009. 2 Data on per capita GDP and car ownership levels was taken from World Development Indicators of the World Bank. See, GDP Per Capita (Current US$), viewed on 26 March 2013, http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP. PCAP.CD and Passenger Cars (Per 1,000 People), viewed on 26 March 2013, http://data. worldbank.org/indicator/IS.VEH.PCAR.P3/ countries 3 As per the estimates of the International Monetary Fund, the average annual growth rate of Indias per capita GDP will be about 7.5% between 2010 and 2017. See, Report for Selected Countries and Subjects, viewed on 20 March 2013, http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/ weo/2012/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr. x=44&pr.y=9&sy=2009&ey=2017&scsm=1&s sd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=534&s=N GDPDPC&grp=0&a We have used the same average annual growth rate of 7.5% to estimate Indias per capita GDP in 2025. 4 Per capita GDP data for China is from World Development Indicators of the World Bank. See, GDP Per Capita (Current US$), viewed on 26 March 2013, http://data.worldbank.org/ indicator/NY.GDP.PCAP.CD 5 Population projection for India in 2025 is 1,389 million. See, GoI (2006). 6 According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), about 2 million cars were sold in 2009-10. See, Automobile Domestic Sales Trends, viewed on 12 March 2013, http://www.siamindia.com/scripts/domesticsales-trend.aspx 7 Middle class Rs 2-10 lakh, at 2000 prices. 8 2000 prices. 9 ADB (2006); projects the total number of cars in 2025 as 41.6 million. With a population projection of 1,389 million in 2025 (GoI 2006), this translates into an ownership level of about 30 cars per 1,000 persons. 10 2000 prices, Purchasing power parity (PPP) not adjusted. 11 Data from GoI (2011), and MoRTH (2012). 12 See, Oil Data for India, International Energy Agency, viewed on 24 February 2013, http:// www.iea.org/stats/oildata.asp?COUNTRY_ CODE=IN 13 Data for Petroleum Import/Export from Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell (PPAC), Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas. Data on quantity of Crude imported from http://ppac. org.in/writereaddata/PT_import_H.xls (viewed on 26 April 2013). Data on value of crude imported from http://ppac.org.in/writereaddata/PT_import_valRS_H.xls (viewed on 26 April 2013). Data on total crude processed in the country from http://ppac.org.in/ writereaddata/PT_crude_H.xls (viewed on 26 April 2013). 14 See, Losses of Petroleum Products: A Study at Trafc Intersections in Delhi, The Urja Watch, April 2009, 2(10): 6-11, viewed on 25 February 2012, http://iaemp.in/wp-content/uploads/ 2011/01/The-Urja-Watch-April-2009.pdf

15 Data from the World Health Organisation. See, Database: Outdoor Air Pollution in Cities, viewed on 15 March 2013, http://www.who.int/ phe/health_topics/outdoorair/databases/en/ 16 Data from CPCB (2010). 17 Data from MoUD and WSA (2008). 18 The ve cities were Kolkata, Pune, Surat, Jaipur and Kochi. 19 Cities with population more than 1 million in 2001. 20 Cities with population between 0.1 and 1 million in 2001. 21 See Controlling Millions of Vehicles: Beijing, Chinas Trafc Policy Package, viewed on 4 February 2013, http://www.unescap.org/esd/ environment/lcgg/documents/roadmap/ case_study_fact_sheets/Case%20Studies/CSBeijing-China-trafc-policy-package.pdf 22 See, Guangzhou Adopts Car Quota to Counter Gridlock, viewed on 4 February 2013, http:// www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2012-07/01/ content_15540462.htm 23 See Report of the Expert Committee on Review of Motor Vehicles Act 1988 submitted to the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways (MoRT&H), January 2011, viewed on 23 March 2013, http://morth.nic.in/showle.asp?lid=377 24 See Motor Vehicle Statistics of Japan 2010, http://www.jama-english.jp/publications/ MVS2010.pdf 25 See Note 3. 26 Population projection for Delhi in 2025 is 27.26 million. See GoI (2006). 27 Consistent data on the per capita GDP for Hong Kong, Singapore, and the ve Indian cities for the year 2011 was not available. Also, consistent data on population in these cities in 2008 was not available to enable calculation of the level of car ownership in 2008. 28 Data from GoI (2011); MoRTH (2012); PricewaterhouseCoopers (2009); Annual Vehicle Statistics 2012, Singapore, viewed on 10 March 2013, http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/les/ FactsandFigures/MVP01-1_MVP_by_type.pdf; Monthly Trafc and Transport Digest, Hong Kong, viewed on 10 March 2013, http://www. td.gov.hk/en/transport_in_hong_kong/transport_gures/monthly_trafc_and_transport_ digest/index.html 29 Data from MoRTH (2012); Annual Vehicle Statistics 2012, Singapore, viewed on 10 March 2013, http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/dam ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/ les/FactsandFigures/MVP01-1_MVP_by type. pdf; Monthly Trafc and Transport Digest, Hong Kong, viewed on 10 March 2013, http:// www.td.gov.hk/en/transport_in_hong_kong/ transport_gures/monthly_trafc_and_transport_digest/index.html 30 See The Most Expensive and Richest Cities in the World, viewed on 8 February 2013, http:// www.citymayors.com/economics/richest_cities.html 31 Vehicle Ownership, viewed on 26 April 2013, http://app.mot.gov.sg/page_land.aspx?p=/ Land_Transport/Managing_Road_Use/Vehicle_Ownership.aspx&AspxAutoDetectCookieS upport=1 32 The gures are for 1993; latest data was not available. These numbers are expected to be higher now, keeping in view growing population and densities. See, Model Cities: Asia, viewed on 8 February 2013, http://www.istp. murdoch.edu.au/ISTP/casestudies/Case_ Studies_Asia/modasia/modasia.html 33 Data for road length from http://www.lta.gov. sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/les/FactsandFigures/Road-Lengthkm-2011.pdf (viewed on 26 April 2013). Data for road lane kilometres from http://www.lta.

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gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/les/FactsandFigures/Road-Lengthlane-km-2011.pdf (viewed on 26 April 2013). See Expanding the Road Network, viewed on 23 February 2013, http://app.mot.gov.sg/ Land_Transport/Managing_Road_Use/Expanding_the_Road_Network.aspx Data for road length in 2000 from http://www. td.gov.hk/lemanager/en/content_1285/table11.pdf (viewed on 26 April 2013). Data for road length in 2010 from http:// www.td.gov. hk/lemanager/en/content_4434/table11.pdf (viewed on 26 April 2013). See Land Transport: Cycling, viewed on 23 February 2013, http://www.ifaq.gov.sg/mot/ apps/fcd_faqmain.aspx#TOPIC_243 See Land Transport Masterplan, viewed on 23 February 2013, http://talk2lta.lta.gov.sg/ ltmp/LTMP%202008.pdf Data on metro rail length for Delhi from Project Update, viewed on 26 April 2013, http://www. delhimetrorail.com/project_updates.aspx Bus data for Singapore from http:// www.lta. gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/les/FactsandFigures/MVP01-1_ MVP_by_type.pdf (viewed on 29 April 2013). Population data for Singapore from http://www.singstat.gov.sg/statistics/latest_ data.html#12 (viewed on 29 April 2013). Bus data for Hong Kong from http://www.td.gov. hk/lemanager/en/content_4542/table41s.pdf (viewed on 29 April 2013). Population data for Hong Kong from http://www.censtatd.gov.hk/ hkstat/sub/bbs.jsp (viewed on 29 April 2013). See For 1,000 People, Just Half a Bus in Delhi, viewed on 23 February 2013, http://articles. timesondia.indiatimes.com/2012-07-26/delhi/32868445_1_low-oor-dtc-urban-transport See Annual Vehicle Statistics 2012, Singapore, viewed on 10 March 2013, http://www. lta.gov.sg/content/dam/ltaweb/corp/PublicationsResearch/les/FactsandFigures/MVP011_MVP_by_type.pdf See Tax Structure for Cars, viewed on 29 April 2013, http://www.lta.gov.sg/content/ ltaweb/en/roads-and-motoring/owning-a-vehicle/costs-of-owning-a-vehicle/tax-structurefor-cars.html See Motor Vehicle First Registration Tax, viewed on 25 February 2013, http://www.gov. hk/en/residents/taxes/motortax/ See Monthly Trafc and Transport Digest, Hong Kong, viewed on 10 March 2013, http:// www.td.gov.hk/en/transport_in_hong_kong/ transport_gures/monthly_trafc_and_transport_digest/index.html See International Fuel Prices 2009, viewed on 29 April 2013, http://www.giz.de/Themen/en/ dokumente/gtz2009-en-ifp-full-version.pdf Master Plan of Delhi 2021, Delhi Development Authority. See Development Code, viewed on 29 April 2013, http://dda.org.in/planning/ docs/17.DEVELOPMENT_CODE.pdf Inventory and Source Apportionment Study for Indian Cities, Central Pollution Control Board, Government of India, New Delhi, viewed on 29 April 2013, http://moef.nic.in/downloads/ public-information/Rpt-air-monitoring-17-012011.pdf Ghate, A T and S Sundar (2010): Putting Urban Transport on a Low Energy and Low Carbon Path: A Focus on the Passenger Transport Sector in Million-plus Cities in India Infrastructure Report 2010: Infrastructure Development in a Low Carbon Economy (New Delhi: Oxford University Press), 258-71. (2012): How Should Cities Plan for Sustainable Mobility? A Framework Based on Evaluation of City Mobility Plans, paper presented at the CODATU XV conference, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 22-25 October. GoI (2006): Population Projection for India and States 2001-2026, report of the Technical Group on Population Projections constituted by the National Commission on Population, Ofce of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner on Population, Government of India, New Delhi. (2011): Provisional Population Totals Paper 2 of 2011: India (Vol II), Ofce of the Registrar General and Census Commissioner, Government of India, New Delhi, viewed on 29 April 2013, http://censusindia.gov.in/2011-prov-results/paper2/data_les/India2/Table_2_PR_ Cities_1Lakh_and_Above.pdf Hau, T D (1997): Transport for Urban Development in Hong Kong in Transport and Communications for Urban Development: Report of the HABITAT II Global Workshop (Nairobi, Kenya: The United Nations Centre for Human Settlements (HABITAT)), 267-289, viewed on 28 August 2012, http://www.ucl.ac.uk/dpuprojects/drivers_urb_change/urb_infrastructure/pdf_transport/HABITATII_Hau_transport_hong_kong.pdf McKinsey Global Institute (2007): The Bird of Gold: The Rise of Indias Consumer Market, McKinsey Global Institute. MoHIPE (2012): Report of the Working Group on the Automotive Sector for the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-2017), Department of Heavy Industry, Ministry of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises, Government of India, New Delhi. MoRTH (2012): Road Accidents in India 2011, Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, Government of India, New Delhi, viewed on 29 April 2013, http://morth.nic.in/showle. asp?lid=835 (2012): Road Transport Year Book (2009-10 & 2010-11), Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, Government of India, New Delhi. (various years): Road Transport Year Book/ Motor Transport Statistics of India, Ministry of Road Transport and Highways, Government of India, New Delhi. MoUD and WSA (2008): Study on Trafc and Transportation Policies and Strategies in Urban Areas in India: Final Report, Ministry of Urban Development and Wilbur Smith Associates. PricewaterhouseCoopers (2009): UK Economic Outlook November 2009, PricewaterhouseCoopers. Roychowdhury, A (2010): Car Control, Down to Earth, 31 August, viewed on 4 February 2013, http://www.downtoearth.org.in/node/1751 SIAM (various years): Statistical Prole of Automobile Industry in India, Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers. TERI (2006a): Energy Efciency and Climate Change Consideration for On-road Transportation in India, TERI Report No 2005UG27, The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi. (2006b): National Energy Map for India: Technology Vision 2030, report prepared for the Ofce of the Principal Scientic Adviser to the Government of India by The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi. (2012): The Energy Data Directory and Yearbook (New Delhi: TERI Press). Tiwari, G (2007): Urban Transport in Indian Cities, LSE Cities, viewed on 15 February 2013, http://lsecities.net/media/objects/articles/urban-transport-in-indian-cities

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References
ADB (2006): Energy Efciency and Climate Change Considerations for On-road Transport in Asia (Philippines: Asian Development Bank). Barter, P A (2011): Off-Street Parking Policy Surprises in Asian Cities, Cities, viewed on 12 March 2013, http://www.spp.nus.edu.sg/docs/ fac/paul-barter/Books%20and%20Monographs/Barter%20Off-street%20parking%20 policy%20surprises%20in%20Asian%20cities%20revised.pdf Chamon, M, P Mauro and Y Okawa (2008): Mass Car Ownership in the Emerging Market Giants, Economic Policy, 23(54): 243-96. CPCB (2010): Air Quality Monitoring, Emission

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