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Weekly Tracker
Contents
Returns Non Agri Commodities Currencies Agri Commodities Non-Agri Commodities Gold Silver Copper Crude Oil
(1.9)
3.0 2.0
0.7 0.6 (0.1) (0.4)
(1.0)
(2.0)
(0.9) (1.9)
ETF Performance
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust declined by 0.5 percent to 1,013.15 tonnes as on 31st May 2013 from previous level of 1,016.16 tonnes as on 24th May 2013.
25,500
1,350
Outlook
In the coming week we expect gold prices to trade on a negative note on the back of weak global markets. Further, expectations from markets that the Federal Reserve will cut its bond buying program will further exert downside pressure on prices. Decline in SDPR gold holdings will add more downside pressure. Depreciation in the Rupee will help to cushion sharp fall in gold prices on the MCX. Spot Gold : Support 1,367/1,345 Resistance 1,415/1,442. (CMP: $1,394.20) Sell MCX Gold August between 27,180-27,220, SL-27,555, Target -26,500. (CMP: Rs 27,076)
85.0
84.0 83.0
Silver
56,000
54,000 52,000 50,000 48,000 46,000 44,000
30
28 26 24
ETF Performance
42,000
22
Outlook
26.0
24.0
81.0 80.0
22.0
79.0
US Dollar Index
Copper
Copper Inventories
7,400
7,200 7,000 6,800
Outlook
8,200
8,000 7,800 7,600 7,400
568,000
518,000 468,000 418,000 368,000 318,000
Crude Oil
Weekly Price Performance
On a weekly basis, Nymex crude oil prices declined around 2.3 percent. On the domestic bourses, depreciation in the Rupee prevented the commodity from closing in the red. The US Energy Department (EIA) report showed that US crude oil inventories increased unexpectedly by 3.0 million barrels to 397.60 million barrels for the week ending on 24th May 2013. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.5 million barrels to 219.20 million barrels, whereas distillate stockpiles rose by 1.9 million barrels to 120.70 million barrels for the last week. Unexpected rise in the US crude oil inventories. Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) maintained its oil output quota at 30 million barrels a day. US GDP grew at a slower pace. Unfavorable economic data from the US and the Euro Zone. Weakness in the Dollar Index cushioned fall in oil prices. For the coming week, crude oil prices are expected to trade lower on the back of forecast of rise in the crude oil inventories coupled with an unchanged production quota at 30 million barrels a day from OPEC . Additionally, weak global markets and expectations of cut in bond buying program from US federal Reserve will act as a negative factor for prices. However, sharp downside will be cushioned on account of weakness in DX. Depreciation in the Indian Rupee will prevent sharp fall in prices on the MCX. Nymex Crude Oil: Support: 90.15/88.67 Resistance 93.05/94.60. (CMP:$91.51) Sell MCX Crude June between 5265-5285, SL-5331, Target -5155. (CMP:Rs 5199)
Nymex and MCX Crude Oil Price Performance
5,400 5,300 5,200 5,100 92.0 98.0 96.0 94.0
5,000
4,900 4,800 4,700 90.0 88.0 86.0
Outlook
388.6 384
381.4
388.9 387.6
385.9 382.7
54.0
53.5 53.0
US Dollar Index
84.0
83.0
82.0 81.0 80.0 79.0
Euro
Euro/$ - Spot
News
EURO/INR - Spot
74.0
73.5 73.0 72.5 72.0 71.5 71.0 70.5
Outlook
70.0
69.5 69.0
Chana
Outlook
Weekly Strategy
Turmeric
Turmeric exports during Apr-Jan 2013 declined by 4% to 66,550 tn. (Source Factiva)
NCDEX issued a circular earlier this month that it will modify the tick as well as the lot size in the Turmeric contract. However the exchange later announced that it has kept the circular issued earlier has been kept in abeyance till further notice. Production of turmeric may decline in 2012-2013 season due to weak monsoon as well as lower turmeric prices. The area covered under Turmeric in A.P. as on 10th October, 2012 has been reported at 0.58 lakh hectares. The area covered is lower as compared to last year (0.81 lha), as well as normal as on date (0.67 lha). Sowing is reported to be 30-35% lower compared to last year. Turmeric production in 2012-13 is expected around 50% lower compared to last year and is expected around 45-50 lakh bags. Production in 2011-12 is reported at historical high of 90 lakh bags/ 10.62 lakh tns.
Outlook
Prices are expected to trade on a negative note this week as huge stocks as well as weak demand may continue to pressurize prices. However, prices may recover from lower levels as farmers may hold back their stocks. Also export demand may emerge at lower levels ahead of Ramadan and the summers start to cool down.
Sell NCDEX Turmeric July between 5810-5850, SL -6030, Target - 5550 / 5450.
Weekly Strategy
Jeera
International Scenario
Outlook
Weekly Levels
Soybean
Outlook
Strategy
Global Scenario
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for May declined 3.4 percent to 1,248,014 tonnes from 1,292,371 tonnes shipped during April. Stocks data from industry regulator the Malaysian Palm Oil Board showed inventory levels at the end of April down 11.3 percent to 1.93 million tonnes against the previous month's 2.17 mn tn. But exports of palm oil products for May 1-10 slid 16.7% to 380,047 tn.
As per the data released by the The Solvent Extractors' Association of India Imports of all vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, by India, declined 29.23% in April 2013, to 654,827 tonnes from 925,334 tonnes in April 2012 due to high stocks lying at the ports. Stockpiles of edible oil at ports on May 1 stood at 670,000 tn, the trade body said, off a record of 930,000 tn on March 1. Stocks were still on the higher side despite the decline in monthly imports. India's imports of palm oil could rise more than 17% in the year to October 2013 to stand at 9 mn tn, compared with 7.67 mn tn of palm oil in 2011/12 as the edible oil is the cheapest available, despite an import duty. Buy NCDEX Ref Soya Oil July between 690-692, SL -681, Target - 704 / 710. Buy MCX CPO June between 481-479, SL -473, Target - 491 / 493.
Domestic Scenario
Strategy
Sugar
Weekly Price Performance
After showing some signs of recovery , sugar prices remained flat last week as higher supplies continue to offset demand ahead of festive season. ICE as well as Liffe Sugar remained under downside pressure last week on account of good progress of harvesting and crushing in brazil. The sowing area under sugarcane is likely to decline by 10 per cent this season following shortage of water in major producing states including Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. (Source: Business Standard) Data compiled by the agriculture ministry showed planting is completed in 41.24 lakh ha compared with 46 lakh hectares. Sugar inventories in India, are poised to surge by 37% to 9.2 million tonnes at the start of October, a five-year high as exports halt because of slumping global prices. Exports have plunged to about 35,000 tonnes since 1 October from 3.4 million tonnes in 2011-2012. Sugar and ethanol mills in Brazil's main center-south cane belt made strong progress harvesting record crop through mid-May, producing more than twice the amounts of sugar and ethanol than they did from last season's smaller cane crop. Mills in the region benefited from dry weather in late April and early May and produced mn tn of sugar, up 40 percent from a year ago. Sugar prices are expected to recover on account of improvement in demand from the bulk manufacturers coupled with lower cane planting figures. However, weak international markets may keep sharp upside capped. Buy NCDEX SUGAR July between 3090-3080, SL -3040, Target - 3145 / 3160
Outlook
Strategy
Kapas/Cotton
Outlook
Strategy
Thank You!
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