Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Modelling
A brief note for urban Transport
Course,
Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia
By
Riza Atiq Rahmat
2013
Transport modelling
Trip Generation
Trip Distribution
Modal Split
Trip Assignment
High density developments generate more trips than low density developments
Origin
Destination
Destination 1
Origin
Destination 2
Destination 2
Trip Distribution
Mode 1
Origin
Modal Split
Origin
Mode 2
Destination
Mode 3
Destination
Trip Assignment
Trips
Non-home-based
To work
To go home
To school
To shopping centre
Business-trip
City
Percentage
Year
Baghdad
85.8
1980
Johannesburg
84.1
1980
Kuala Lumpur
80.5
1985
High plot ratio zones generate more trips than low plot ratio
Trip Purposes
Work
School
Business
Private
Others
Chicago
37.5
4.0
9.7
41.7
7.1
Detroit
41.6
6.3
8.6
34.0
9.5
Baghdad
34.8
13.0
6.2
38.0
8.0
Johannesburg
(Blacks)
Johannesburg
(Whites)
Washington,
D.C.
Kuala Lumpur
51.3
35.6
2.4
8.2
2.5
30.7
20.4
7.0
35.0
6.9
43.1
9.4
9.6
26.7
11.2
29.2
21.2
6.3
26.5
16.8
Work Trip
f (Trip Production) =
Household income, household size,
Car ownership, number of working person in the
household .
Socio-economic
f (Trip Attraction) =
Land-use characteristic
Y
D7
D1
D5
D1
D2
D4
D6
D1
D1
D1
D1
D3
D1
t-statistic
Regression parameter
t =
Standard error of the parameter
Model development
1. Observe any relationship between parameters
Non-linear relationship could be linearised
Y = aX
30
25
Log Y
20
Y = abX
15
10
5
0
0
10
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-0.2
-0.4
15
log (Y)
80
Y
Y = aXb
40
20
0
0
15
100
60
10
10
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
15
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.2
log (X)
5
4
Y = 1 / (a + bX)
1.5
1/Y
2
0.5
1
0
1/Y = a + bX
6
X
10
12
10
15
1
0.995135
-0.80885
-0.81603
-0.30011
-0.30901 0.240331
-0.81724
-0.82478
1
1
0.98193 0.409236
Example
zo
Car
ne ownership
1
1.1
Household Number of
income
houses
3555
2350
Number of
workers
235
Daily
production
6655
1.2
4303
2587
358
7415
1.5
7101
2605
417
7598
1.7
9111
2498
512
7412
1.8
9502
2788
419
8112
1.5
7105
2358
235
6625
1.8
10052
1988
265
5730
2.1
12513
1058
158
3089
2.3
14217
1187
254
3588
10
2.7
19221
825
487
2950
11
1.2
4339
2687
987
8655
12
0.8
1305
2350
857
7546
13
0.7
1198
2879
125
7901
14
1.5
7211
1987
847
6612
15
2.1
12589
897
254
2798
16
0.8
1121
2987
748
9731
17
1.8
9083
1578
547
5012
18
1.9
11041
1278
389
4021
19
1.6
8151
1380
587
4525
20
1.9
11051
1089
457
3605
Correlation matrix
Car ownership
Car ownership
Household
income
Number of
houses
Number of
worker
Production
1
0.995135
-0.80885
-0.81603
-0.30011
-0.30901 0.240331
-0.81724
-0.82478
1
1
0.98193 0.409236
Commercial area attract trips in the morning and produce trip in the afternoon
10
Output Regression
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.99801829
R Square
0.996040507
Adjusted R
Square
Standard Error
0.995574685
141.4405503
Observations
20
ANOVA
Df
Regression
SS
2
MS
85552805.7 42776403
Residual
17 340092.2977 20005.43
Total
19
Coefficients
Significance
F
2138.24 3.80133E-21
85892898
Standard
Error
101.229828
t Stat
P-value
-1.0056
Intercept
-101.796472
X Variable 1
2.719828956 0.045600893
59.6442
X Variable 2
t-Distribution
12
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.997900286
R Square
0.995804981
Adjusted R
0.940016369
Square
Standard
141.4846514
Error
Observations
20
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
SS
MS
Significance
F
2 85532575.68 42766288 2136.40 3.82911E-21
2
18 360322.3185 20017.91
20
85892898
Coefficients
Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2
Standard
t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Error
0
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
#N/A
2.685964254 0.030756216 87.33078 4.13E- 2.621347791 2.7505807
25
1.539715572 0.124882111 12.32935 3.26E- 1.277347791 1.8020834
10
Residential area produces trips in the morning and attracts trips in the afternoon
13
Category analysis
Categorising land-use
Type of land-use
Daily production
Link house
Morning peak
production / hr
1.26
Semi-detached
1.46
16.37
Apartment
1.03
4.87
1.48
7.35
8.16
14
Destination
O
R
I
G
I
N
1
2
3
T11
T21
T31
T12
T22
T32
T13
T23
T33
Tn1
Tn2
Tn3
Tnn
Pn
Tij
A1
A2
A3
An
Tij = Pi
j
Tij = Aj
i
W = T = Pi = Aj
i
15
or
P1 + P2 + P3 + P4 + P5 + . + Pn = W
or
A1 + A2 + A3 +A4 + A5 + .+ An = W
16
Matrix Balancing
Production Attraction
560
1250
750
530
1105
430
545
540
450
1200
1040
500
4450
4450
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
157
67
54
68
211
89
72
91
310 132 107 134
153
65
53
66
126
54
43
55
292 124 100 126
1250 530 430 540
5
6
151
63 560
202
84 750
298 124 1105
147
61 545
121
51 450
280 117 1040
1200 500 4450
Production
Attraction
Gravity Model
m1 m2
F=G
D2
Pi Aj
Tij = K
f(Rij)
18
Tij = K
j
Pi Aj
j
f(Rij)
Tij = Pi
1
Ki =
Aj / f(Rij)
j
Aj / f(Rij)
Tij = Pi
Aj / f(Rij)
j
19
1
Kj =
Pi / f(Rij)
i
Pi / f(Rij)
Tij = Aj
Pi / f(Rij)
i
20
Kj Aj / f(Rij)
j
1
Kj =
Ki Pi / f(Rij)
i
21
Example
Input : Trip Generation
Zone Production Attraction
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1100000
650000
542000
498000
510000
250000
325000
3875000
2600000
250000
210000
320000
210000
135000
150000
3875000
Origin
738065
436129
363665
70968
41935
34968
59613
35226
29373
90839
53677
44759
59613
35226
29373
38323
22645
18883
42581 1100000
25161 650000
20981 542000
22
23
All Trips
Choice
Non-motorised
Motorised trip
Choice
Public
Private
Choice
Choice
Bus
Rail based
M / Cycle
Car
Share of trips by
walking
0.95
0.92
0.88
0.83
0.77
0.7
0.61
0.5
0.39
0.27
0.17
0.09
0.06
0.04
Walking or bus
25
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Distance (m)
Walking or boarding
the bus?
26
1
P =
1+De
( Distance)
Calibration:
( 1 P)/P = D e( Distance)
ln [ (1-P)/P ] = ln D + Distance
Y = mX + C
27
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.989694148
R Square
0.979494507
Adjusted R
0.977785716
Square
Standard
0.292947102
Error
Observations
14
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
SS
MS
1 49.1916 49.1916
12 1.02981 0.08582
13 50.2215
Coefficients
Intercept
X Variable 1
Standar t Stat
d Error
2.920840037 0.14545 20.0808
-5.722665616 0.23902 -23.9418
4
ln D = 2.920840037
D = 18.5569
F
573.2091
P-value
1.33E-10
1.69E-11
Significance F
1.69E-11
Lower 95%
Upper
95%
2.603922 3.237758
-6.24345 -5.20188
= -5.72266562
1
P =
28
Guide line
Minimize non-response
Personal interviews
Pretest for interviewer effects etc.
Referendum format
Provide adequate background info.
Remind of substitute commodities
Include & explain non-response option
29
1 + D e( Cost + Time)
30
(1-P)/P
ln((1-P)/P) Fare
Reduction of
differences travel time
3.09790129
1.30
0
22.15
13.46 2.599770506
1.30
8.18 2.101639722
1.30
10
4.97 1.603508939
1.30
15
3.02 1.105378155
1.30
20
1.84 0.607247371
1.30
25
0.96 -0.040005335
1.30
30
0.33 -1.098612289
1.30
40
2.83 1.040989873
0.40
20
2.86 1.049455984
0.65
20
2.88 1.057922096
0.90
20
2.90 1.066388207
1.15
20
2.93 1.074854319
1.40
20
2.95 1.083320431
1.65
20
2.98 1.091786542
1.90
20
3.00 1.100252654
2.15
20
X1
X2
31
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.999739
R Square
0.999479
Adjusted R
Square
0.999399
Standard Error
0.010826
Observations
16
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total
Intercept
X Variable 1
X Variable 2
2
13
15
SS
MS
F
2.922473 1.46123629 12468.41
0.001524 0.00011720
2.923996
Standard
Coefficients
Error
1.741845 0.010741
0.145515 0.006679
-0.04766 0.000305
t Stat
162.17302
21.788274
-156.33184
P-value
7.02E-23
1.29E-11
1.13E-22
Significance
F
4.57E-22
Lower 95%
1.718641
0.131087
-0.04832
Upper
Lower
Upper
95%
95.0%
95.0%
1.765048 1.718641 1.765048
0.159943 0.131087 0.159943
-0.047 -0.04832
-0.047
= 0.145515 , = -0.04766
D = eksp(1.741845) = 5.707863.
1
P =
1 + D e( Cost + Time)
32
1
P =
1 + D e( Cost + Time)
33
Trip Assignment
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 5
Zone 4
Zone 1
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
200
150
300
350
250
50
120
180
220
Zone 2
450
Zone 3
550
600
Zone 4
290
310
420
Zone 5
370
410
530
70
610
34
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 5
Zone 4
Minimum path tree
from zone 1 to all
other zones.
35
Zon
1
Zone 2
Volume =
200+150+300=
350
Volume =
200
Volume = 150+300
= 450
Volume =
350
Zone 3
Zone 5
Volume =
300
Zone 4
Volume =
150
36