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Journal of Applied Aquaculture

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Geospatial Modeling of Site Suitability for Pond-Based Tilapia and Clarias Farming in Uganda
Herbert Ssegane , E. W. Tollner & Karen Veverica
a a a b

Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States
b

Department of Fisheries and Allied Aquacultures, International Center for Aquaculture and Aquatic Environments, Auburn University, Alabama, United States

To cite this article: Herbert Ssegane , E. W. Tollner & Karen Veverica (2012): Geospatial Modeling of Site Suitability for Pond-Based Tilapia and Clarias Farming in Uganda, Journal of Applied Aquaculture, 24:2, 147-169 To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/10454438.2012.663695

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Journal of Applied Aquaculture, 24:147169, 2012 Copyright Taylor & Francis Group, LLC ISSN: 1045-4438 print/1545-0805 online DOI: 10.1080/10454438.2012.663695

Geospatial Modeling of Site Suitability for Pond-Based Tilapia and Clarias Farming in Uganda
HERBERT SSEGANE1 , E. W. TOLLNER1 , and KAREN VEVERICA2
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Department of Biological and Agricultural Engineering, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States 2 Department of Fisheries and Allied Aquacultures, International Center for Aquaculture and Aquatic Environments, Auburn University, Alabama, United States
1

Seven criteria (water requirement, water temperature, soil texture, terrain slope, potential farm gate sales, availability of farm inputs, and access to local and regional markets) were analyzed to determine site suitability for tilapia and clarias farming in Uganda. Crisp and fuzzy approaches of criterion classication were implemented using GIS, and the results were compared. There was a statistically signicant difference between maps generated by crisp and fuzzy approaches. For both the crisp and the fuzzy approaches, over 98% of the land was classied as moderately suitable or suitable. Overall, the crisp method classied 16,322 hectares (0.09%) as very suitable compared to zero hectares (0%) by the fuzzy method. Simultaneously, the crisp method gave 297,344 hectares (1.96%) as unsuitable compared to 168,592 hectares (0.96%) by the fuzzy method. Of the 138 surveyed shponds that were operational, the crisp method classied 71% as suitable and 29% as moderately suitable, while the fuzzy method classied 71.7% as suitable and 28.3% as moderately suitable.
We thank the AquaFish CRSP for funding the project. The AquaFish CRSP is funded in part by United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Cooperative Agreement No. EPP-A-00-06-00012-00 and by United States and host country partners. We also wish to thank Freddy Nachtergaele and the FAO Land and Water Division for the digital soil data, and Dr. Nelly Isyagi, Maurice Ssebisubi, and John Walakira for the shpond survey data. Address correspondence to E. W. Tollner, Biology & Agricultural Engineering Department and Faculty of Engineering, University of Georgia, 0117 Driftmier Eng. Ctr., 597 D. W. Brooks DR., Athens, GA 30602 USA. E-mail: btollner@engr.uga.edu

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KEYWORDS GIS, sh farming, fuzzy logic, crisp sets, multicriterion evaluation, and pairwise comparisons

INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND

The FAO Limb Declaration on smallholder aquacultural development (Moehl et al. 2005) states that aquaculture in sub-Saharan Africa is at a point where population growth and declining natural sources of sh require aquaculture to signicantly contribute to sh supply. In Uganda, the average annual sh supply from all lakes was estimated at about 220,000 tons (National Agricultural Advisory Services 2005), a decline from the peak of 245,000 tons in 1990 compared to the population growth rate of about 3.4% per year between the same period of 1991 and 2002 (Klasen 2004). The national annual average per capita sh consumption in Uganda has declined from about 14 kg before 1990 to between 4 kg to 8 kg after 1990 (NAADS 2005). The general regional trend for per capita sh consumption is declining due to weak management structures, low levels of investment in rural economies, and lack of economic growth (Moehl et al. 2005). However, renewed interest in the aquaculture industry by governments and the private sector in the region has provided new opportunities for signicantly improving sh supply in the region. Fish farming in Uganda reportedly contributes up to 15,000 tons of sh per year (Mwanja 2005) from an estimated 20,000 ponds throughout the country with an average surface area of 500 m2 . Fish farming in Uganda is predominantly practiced by poor people in villages for subsistence with ponds of usually less than 500 m2 constructed using family labor (Jagger & Pender 2001; Nyombi & Bolwig 2004). Production is usually in the range of 5 kg to 10 kg/100 m2 (i.e., 500 kg to 1,000 kg per hectare) per annum. Many of the ponds are dug in swampy or wetland areas or micro-watershed concentrated storm runoff areas without proper siting, planning, or use of guidelines that take into considerations the ecological and environmental impacts or long-term availability of water supply. This has led to the drying up of some ponds. However, with sh prices rising and increased access to improved feeds and ngerlings, interest in small- and medium-scale commercial sh farming has been on the increase. According to Aguilar-Manjarrez and Nath (1998), 90% and 98% of the surface area of Uganda were considered very suitable for small-scale subsistence and commercial sh farming, respectively, while 8% and 2% of the surface area were considered suitable. Aguilar-Manjarrez and Nath (1998) identied water as the most important factor for inland sh farming, and Kapetsky (1994) identied rainfall runoff, perennial rivers, and streams as the main sources of water for shponds in Africa. The above Ugandan data was developed at a continental scale with low-resolution geographic

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information service (GIS) data (e.g., 1 Km digital elevation models [DEM]) in contrast to the current readily available high-resolution (e.g., 90 m DEM) data. Also, the water balance model used to estimate the water requirement used a constant seepage rate of 8.0 cm per day without consideration for the effect of soil texture on seepage rates. Aguilar-Manjarrez and Nath (1998) use crisp or sharp boundaries to dene classes of suitability for different sh farming suitability criteria that do not account for fuzziness of the human cognitive processes. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a high-resolution sh farming suitability map of Uganda by comparing maps generated by the crisp and fuzzy methods using geospatial modeling techniques. This study took into account the pond size and drainage area required to provide the pond volume when computing for water requirement criterion. The study also presents a method of constructing and GIS implementation of fuzzy membership functions from criterion crisp limits based on expert knowledge in literature. Also, the above high suitability rating of sh farming in most of Uganda has not translated to the number of successful operations that one might expect, suggesting that analysis with improved tools might be useful.

METHODS AND MATERIALS Fish Farming Suitability Criterion

Figure 1 depicts the seven criteria used to assess site suitability for sh farming. For each criterion, the corresponding data requirements are dened as basic map themes. WATER REQUIREMENT A similar study on assessment of potential aquaculture on the African continent by Kapetsky (1994) used annual precipitation as a metric for water availability. However, Kapetsky and Nath (1997) and Aguilar-Manjarrez and Nath (1998) used net annual water requirement based on water balance of precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and a constant seepage rate of 8.0 cm per month. The suitability classes by Aguilar-Manjarrez and Nath (1998) were based on four equal interval classications where water balance of greater than zero was considered very suitable, while less than -3,500 mm was unsuitable for sh farming. The above metrics do not account for pond volume and the drainage area required to provide the pond volume. This study considered water from rainfall runoff as the primary source of water for small-scale sh farming. The watershed drainage area required to meet 500 m3 pond volume during the critical month of the year for each location was used as the metric for water requirement. This approach takes into account the monthly water balance, the average pond size, and the size

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INTERMEDIATE LEVEL [ Criteria] BOTTOM LEVEL [ Basic themes ] Rainfall (mm) Water requirement Evapotranspiration (mm)

Seepage (mm) Water temperature Soil texture Slope Farm gate sales Air temperature (C) Percent clay (%) Digital elevation model Population density Time to Kampala (hrs) Time to populated places (hrs) Time to regional markets (hrs) Total number of poultry Farm inputs Distance to feed agents (km)

Overall suitability map

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Access to markets

FIGURE 1 Flow chart of the geospatial modeling process (color gure available online).

of the required drainage area. The higher the required drainage area, the less suitable the site is for sh farming unless groundwater or spring water is an alternative source. There are about 20,000 sh ponds in Uganda, and 90% have surface area of 100 to 500 m2 (Aganyira 2005; Mwanja 2005). Therefore, the choice of pond volume of 500 m3 is based on average pond surface area of 500 m2 (Mwanja 2005) and an assumed average depth of 1 m. Work by Veverica et al. (2009) on catsh cash ow analysis for Uganda shows that seven ponds of 250 m2 each and one nursery pond of 63 m2 can provide a steady net income of $160 per month plus 10 kg of sh per week for family consumption. The use of watershed drainage area in contrast to only net annual water requirement seeks to account for both the net monthly water requirement and the limitation of land in Uganda where the average farm size is 2 hectares (Jagger & Pender 2001). Equation (1) expresses the pond water balance (Figure 2); Equation (2) was used to estimate the required watershed drainage area. Annual water balance model for a pre-determined pond volume. Model : RO DA + RF A ET A Seep A = A d , [1]

Site Suitability for Pond-Based Tilapia

RF ET

151

RO

Pond Volume = AXd

Seep

FIGURE 2 Water balance model showing inputs and outputs to the pond.

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where RO = runoff (mm); DA = watershed drainage area (m2 ); RF = rainfall (mm); A = pond surface area (m2 ); ET = evapotranspiration (mm); seep = seepage (mm); and d = pond depth (mm). From Equation (1), the required drainage area was estimated by Equation (2). A d + ET + Seep RF , [2] RO Seepage. The seepage rate at each site was estimated from the soil textural classes dened in Table 1. DA = Runoff. The curve number method was used to estimate annual runoff. Equation 3 expresses the curve number model where Q is the runoff (mm),
TABLE 1 Daily Seepage Rates Based on Soil Textural Class ID 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Soil texture Clay loam Sandy claya Sandy clay loama Sandy loam Loamy sanda Sand Clay Loam Silty clay loam Seepage rate (mm day1 ) 2.50 11.25 12.50 13.25 18.75 25.00 0.25 8.00 6.35M

The seepage values were estimated based on lower limit of seepage rates in Egna and Boyd (1997). a Seepage rates of these textural classes were estimated based on lower limit of percent sand (seepage [% sand/100] 25).

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P is the rainfall (mm), S is potential storage (mm), and CN is the curve number (dimensionless). Q= (P 0.2S )2 ; P 0.2S (P + 0.8S ) 0; P 0.2S 25400 254. CN [3]

where S =

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The curve number was determined using the soil hydrologic group, land use, and land cover data. The soil hydrologic groups were estimated using the soil textural classes depicted in Table 2. The land use and land cover map of Uganda was reclassied into six classes (Table 3). Table 3 is a curve number lookup table based on land use, land cover, and the soil hydrologic group. MATLAB functions and scripts were developed to reclassify the soil textural classes into soil hydrologic groups based on data in Table 2. A union operation in arcMap geographic information system (GIS) was implemented to determine the respective land use, land cover, and hydrologic soil group for each map grid cell. Additional MATLAB codes were developed and implemented to generate a curve number map of Uganda based on data in Table 3. The soils textural data was extracted from the Harmonized World Series Database (FAO et al. 2008), while the land cover and land use data came from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Africover multipurpose land cover database (Africover 2002).
TABLE 2 Hydrologic Soil Groups Based on Soil Textural Class Group A Sand, loamy sand, and sandy loam Group C Sandy clay loam Group B Silt loam and loam Group D Clay loam, silty clay loam, sandy clay, silty clay, and clay

TABLE 3 Curve Numbers Based on Land Use, Land Cover, and the Hydrologic Soil Group Hydrologic soil group Land use and land cover Agriculture Forest Bare areas Rangeland Urban Water A 67 30 77 49 77 100 B 77 58 86 69 85 100 C 83 71 91 79 90 100 D 87 78 94 84 92 100

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Evapotranspiration. Evapotranspiration was estimated by The BlaneyCriddle model (Equation (4)), which uses mean monthly temperatures. The variable p (Equation (4)) depends on the month and the latitude of a location. A value of p =0.27 was deemed appropriate for all months for Uganda because it lies at the equator. The minimum and maximum temperatures were extracted from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) data portal (UNEP 2010). ETO = p(0.46Tmean + 8.0) Where Tmean =
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[4]

Tmax + Tmin , 2

where Tmin , Tmax , and Tmean are monthly minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures respectively, while ETo is the potential evapotranspiration. Rainfall. Annual rainfall map of Uganda was generated by interpolating (inverse distance weighing) long-term average rainfall data (19611990) of various rain gauge stations in Uganda (347 stations), Kenya (706 stations), Tanzania (556 stations), Rwanda (40 stations), Sudan (171 stations), and the Democratic Republic of Congo (187 stations). The rainfall gauge data was extracted from the FAO Agroclimatic database (FAO 2010). ArcMap GIS was used to interpolate the above gauge data and to extract the Uganda annual rainfall grid.

WATER TEMPERATURE Boyd and Tucker (1998) give emphasis to water temperature as one of the most critical variables for sh growth. Most sh have a limited optimum temperature range for growth, a range at which feeding and oxygen consumption are at their highest. According to Balarin and Haller (1982), the feeding rate of tilapia decreased below 20 C and stopped at about 16 C. For java tilapia, temperatures of 18 to 34 C were considered optimum (Boyd & Tucker 1998), while 28 to 32 C showed the fastest growth. A study by Azaza, Dhraief, and Kraiem (2008) of juvenile tilapia in geothermal waters of southern Tunisia gave optimum growth and feed utilization at temperatures of 26 C and 30 C. El-Sherif and El-Feky (2009) in Egypt obtained similar results for Nile tilapia ngerling with optimum growth and survival observed at 25 C and 30 C. However, El-Sayed and Kawanna (2008) did not observe a significant difference in weights of Nile tilapia reared at 24 C and 32 C, while a doubling of weight was observed at 28 C compared to weights at 25 C and 30 C. Likongwe et al.s research (1996) of juvenile tilapia showed the impact of salinity on optimum temperature. The optimum temperatures for

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growth were 28 C and 32 C in waters of 0 and 8 gL1 salinity, respectively. Additional reported critical temperatures for Nile tilapia include a lethal temperature of 15 C (El-Sherif & El-Feky 2009). Based on the above values, the water temperature suitability was classied into four classes (Table 4). Water temperatures were estimated using a mean monthly water temperature model (Equation (5)) by Kapetsky (1994) that relates water temperatures to air temperatures of 51 data points at the Henderson Research Station near Harare, Zimbabwe, with a coefcient of determination of 0.82. The recommended mean monthly air temperature range for the model is 14 C to 26 C.

Twater = 1.3Tair 6.35

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[5]

SOIL

AND

TERRAIN PROPERTIES

Soil texture and slope were the only soil and terrain properties used for this study because of their relevance in contrast to other soil properties. Other soil properties relevant for detailed site-specic analysis include soil pH, organic matter, and sulde content (Yoo & Boyd 1993). The impact of slope is related to construction, drainage, and potential erosion of upland soils. A level to gently undulating terrain is preferred due to the ease of machinery movements during pond excavation and construction, and ease of pond
TABLE 4 Summary of Crisp Values for Each Suitability Group Across the Seven Criteria. The Groups Include Very Suitable (VS), Suitable (S), Moderate Suitability (MS), and not Suitable or Unsuitable (NS) Criterion thresholds Criterion 1 Water requirement (ha required drainage area) 2 Water Temperature ( C) 3 Soil texture (% clay) 4 Slope (%) 5 Farm gate sales (people/km2 ) 6 Access to local and regional markets (travel hours) 7 Farm inputs Total number of poultry Distance to feed agents (km) Very Suitable <5 2832 1530 <2 2001,000 <1 Suitable 520 2428 1015 or 3040 25 30200 13 Moderate Suitability 20100 2024 510 or 4050 515 530 36 Not Suitable >100 <20 or >32 <5 or >50 >15 <5 or >1,000 >6

>100,000 <30

40,000100,000 3050

15,00040,000 50100

<15,000 >100

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drainage. The International Center for Living Aquatic Resources Management (ICLARM) and Deutsche Geseuschaft fur Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) (1991) consider slopes of 1% to 2% suitable for construction of 1 to 5 hectare ponds, while slopes of up to 5% are suitable for 0.01 to 0.05 hectare ponds. Soil texture is considered the most important soil property because of the need for some clay content (Yoo & Boyd 1993). The clayey soils are required for pond bottom sealing to control seepage and construction of pond embankments, however, higher clay contents are more susceptible to cracking, and thus require additional management. The slope and soil texture suitability (Table 4) were classied by modifying ratings by Yoo and Boyd (1993); Hossain et al. (2007); Hossain et al. (2009); and Hossain and Das (2010).
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FARM INPUTS Manure is used as a supplement for tilapia and catsh ponds in the rst month of the growout cycle and then is used in reduced amounts by more commercial farmers who purchase feeds. Subsistence farmers will often use manure for the entire grow-out period and hence harvest 1 to 3 tons of sh per hectare. In a summary of demonstration pond results presented by Auburn University (2009), those who use feeds can obtain 5 to 8 tons per hectare with tilapia in static water ponds and 18 to 24 tons per hectare with clarias catsh. Manure availability therefore demonstrates the potential for subsistence sh farming for food security purposes; however, for commercial sh farming (which also concerns food security), access to sh feed is the most important. Therefore, access to farm inputs was estimated using two factors. The rst factor quantied the total number of poultry as an indicator of access to feeds. The total numbers of poultry were calculated at a sub-county level, and the geo-referenced data were based on the Uganda National Household Survey for Agriculture and Livestock data (IGAD-LPI 2010). The second factor was the distance to the location of major feed agents. ArcGIS was used to compute the Euclidean distance to the major feed agents. Computing for the maximum suitability between the two factors generated the overall access to farm inputs.

POTENTIAL

FOR

FARM GATE SALES

Farm gate sales are important for rural and small-scale sh farmers because the road network in Uganda is not fully developed and the transportation costs for fresh sh are high. Kapestry (1994), Kapetsky and Nath (1997), and Aguilar-Manjarrez and Nath (1998) use population density as a metric for potential farm gate sales. Pozzi, Robinson, and Nelson (2010) found a strong correlation between expenditure and population density in the Horn

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of Africa (Uganda, Kenya, Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Somalia, and Djibouti), while Jagger and Pender (2009) showed that the percentage mean household expenditures on sh were not signicantly different between urban (3.33%) and rural (3.29%) communities in Uganda. Therefore, this study used population density as the metric for potential farm gate sales. The same thresholds used by Kapetsky and Nath (1997) and Aguilar-Manjarrez and Nath (1998) were used. Urban areas (where population density exceeds 1,000/km2 ) were classied as low suitability because the cost of land is considered to be too expensive for pond-based sh farming. High land cost has a similar effect to high slopes or sandy soils: it requires the owner to switch to smaller tanks or lined ponds that, by the nature of their greater expense, require a more intensive form of management based upon complete, high-quality sh feeds and water exchange or recirculating systems. ACCESS LOCAL REGIONAL MARKETS

TO

AND

The demand for sh is increasing in the peri-urban and urban markets of Kampala and Jinja as supply from catch sh is decreasing, thus making these markets potential sale points for sh by small-scale sh farmers (Jagger & Pender 2001). Therefore, access to these cities is essential because of developed markets for catch sh due to their proximity to Lake Victoria and the River Nile. In addition to access to these cities, Jagger and Pender (2001) suggest that proximity to main roads is critical for access to potential traders and markets. For this study, accessibility to Kampala and accessibility to populated places with more than 50,000 people were used. The accessibility metric used was the travel time in hours in contrast to distance because it is a more realistic metric for areas where the quality of the transport network is variable (Pozzi et al. 2010). The data used were grid-based GIS layers generated by the IGAD Livestock Policy Initiative. Each grid cell represented the time required to reach the nearest point of interest (Kampala or populated areas) along the least cost route (Pozzi et al. 2010). The data assumes on-road travel by motorized vehicle and off-road travel by pedestrian movement. Using the two layers of travel time to Kampala and populated areas, a single layer was generated using the minimum value of the two layers for each grid cell.

Transformation of Criteria into Crisp and Fuzzy Set Values

CRISP
AND

FUZZY SET MEMBERSHIP

To enable geographic information systems (GIS) operations during the multicriterion evaluation (MCE) process, the criteria thresholds were transformed into crisp and fuzzy set values for comparison. The crisp values used the class limits based on expert knowledge, while the fuzzy values allowed

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for a degree of membership between classes. The crisp values were based on criterion thresholds in Table 4 such that values of one, two, three, and four represented not suitable or unsuitable (NS), moderate suitability (MS), suitable (S), and very suitable (VS), respectively. The fuzzy values (ranging from one to four) were generated by using a combination of triangular and trapezoidal membership functions. To make certain that the generated fuzzy values ranged from one to four, two rules were followed during the constructing of fuzzy membership functions. The rst rule was to ensure that the intersection of any two membership functions (from different classes, say, suitable and very suitable) is at the midpoint (0.5) of the degree of membership (01). The second rule ensured that the change point in the direction of a membership function of one class was the start point of another membership function for a different class. Figure 3 depicts the constructed fuzzy membership functions for each criterion. For every criterion, two GIS raster layers were generated. One layer was generated using the crisp values, while the second layer was generated using fuzzy membership functions. The crisp layer gave values of one, two, three, or four, while the fuzzy layer gave continuous values linearly varying from one to four.

SAMPLE GENERATION

OF

FUZZY GIS LAYER

The water requirement criterion was used to illustrate the approach for generating fuzzy GIS layers using the respective fuzzy membership functions. The relevant membership function is showed in Figure 3. Four GIS raster layers were generated representing the degree of membership of each raster cell to the four classes of not suitable (NS), moderate suitability (MS), suitable (S), and very suitable (VS). The degree of membership () of each raster cell to each class was computed using equation 6. VS = 10 x ; 10 x /10; 0 x 10 0 x 10

S =

1; 10 x 15 25 x ; 15 x 25 10 x 15 ; 15 x 25 10 1; 25 x 50 150 x ; 50 x 150 100

MS =

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NS =

x 50 ; 100 1;

50 x 150 x > 150

[6] [7]

WRfuzzy = 4VS + 3S + 2MS + NS

1.1 1 0.9
Degree of membership

NS

MS

VS

MS

NS

0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Percent clay 40 45 50 55

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1 Degree of membership 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0

VS

MS

NS

10

20

30

40

50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 Required drainage area (hectares) MS S VS NS

Degree of membership

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2

NS

0 14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0 22.0 24.0 26.0 28.0 30.0 Water temperature (degrees celsius)

32.0

34.0

FIGURE 3 Sample fuzzy membership functions based on crisp values in table 4 (continued on next page) (color gure available online).

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NS MS 1.00 Degree of membership 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 Population density (people\km2) MS 800 900 1000 S VS NS

159

VS

NS

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Degree of membership

0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 2 4 S 6 8 10 Percent slope MS 12 14 16 N 18

1 V

Degree of membership

0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0 1 2 3 4 Travel time (hrs) 5 6 7

FIGURE 3 (Continued)

where VS , VS , VS , VS are the respective degrees of membership of each raster cell corresponding to the classes of VS, S, MS, and NS. The degrees of membership vary from zero to 1, while WRfuzzy is the water requirement fuzzy raster layer generated by weighted aggregation of the degrees of membership (Equation (7)). The values of the fuzzy layer range from one to four.

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Weighted Linear Aggregation

The tilapia and clarias farming suitability maps based on crisp and fuzzy layers were generated using weighted linear aggregation (WLA) of the seven metrics. The weighted linear aggregation is a weighted average of the attributes in which weights of relative importance are assigned to each criterion. A pairwise comparison matrix (Saaty 1977) was used to compute the relative weights of each criterion. Each matrix cell value (Table 5) represents the relative importance of the row factor (criterion) against the column factor on a scale of one to nine (Eastman et al. 1995). The relative importance values were assigned such that the consistency ratio (CR) of the matrix is less than 0.1. The consistency ratio is the probability that the matrix cell values were assigned randomly and is expressed by equation 8. From equation 8, max is the maximum eigenvalue of the matrix, while n is the total number of factors. The relative weights are computed as the relative values of the eigenvector corresponding to the maximum eigenvalue. CR =
max n

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n1

[8]

Validation of Suitability Maps

Comparison of modeled suitability by both methods was compared to existing shponds. Data for the existing shponds is based on a survey of pond status taken in the eastern, central, and western regions of the country. In total, 138 ponds were working or operational, while 30 ponds were not operational.

TABLE 5 Pairwise Comparison of the Criteria. The Matrix Values Depict the Relevance of Each Row Factor Relative to the Column Factor on a Scale of 1 to 9
Water requirement Water requirement Water Temperature Soil texture Slope Farm gate sales Access to markets Farm inputs 1 1/2 1/4 1/5 1/6 1/7 1/3 Water Temperature 2 1 1/3 1/4 1/5 1/6 2/3 Soil texture 4 3 1 1/2 1/3 1/4 3/2 Farm gate sales 6 5 3 2 1 2/3 2 Access to markets 7 6 4 3 3/2 1 4 Farm inputs 3 3/2 2/3 1/3 1/2 1/4 1

Slope 5 4 2 1 1/2 1/3 3

Weight 0.358 0.235 0.111 0.070 0.049 0.034 0.143

Consistency ratio (CR) = 0.0308.

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RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS Suitability of Each Criterion

Table 6 summarizes the areal and percentage suitability of each criterion based on crisp threshold values. Classication of water availability gave 16.1% as very suitable, 31.0% as suitable, 20.5% as moderate, and 32.4% as unsuitable. The results of the above classication are different from results by Aguilar-Manjarrez and Nath (1998), which gave 0% very suitable, 98% suitable, and 0% unsuitable. The difference can be attributed to difference in methodologies. Aguilar-Manjarrez and Nath (1998) used a water balance model with a constant seepage rate of 8 cm/day and did not compute water balance for a xed pond volume. This research used a water balance model in which the seepage rates varied with varying soil texture, and water balance was computed for a xed pond volume. Comparison of a water availability map (refer to appendix) with a study by Ruecker et al. (2003) on rainfall regimes in Uganda shows that very suitable and suitable areas of water availability are dominant in regions characterized by bimodal rainfall regime and regions where the mean monthly rainfall exceeded half the potential evapotranspiration. The water temperature classication shows that the majority of the country (61.7%) is under moderate conditions for sh growth, with isolated areas of very suitable in Adjumani district (Northern Uganda) and suitable sites at Butiaba and Buseruka in Hoima district. The unsuitable areas for tilapia and clarias growth are located in Kabale and Kisoro districts (Southwestern Uganda), where altitudes range from 1,219 m to 2,347 m and air temperatures range from 10 C to 18 C. Another unsuitable area is the region surrounding Mount Elgon with an altitude of about 4,321 m. The classication of the soil texture based on percentage clay (030 cm soil depth) showed that the majority of the country (49.5%) is under very suitable soil conditions (15%30% clay) for pond sealing. The
TABLE 6 Areal Coverage in Hectares and as a Percentage for Each Suitability Criterion using the Crisp Approach Very Suitable Criterion Water availability Water temperature Soil texture Slope Farm gate sales Market access Farm inputs (hectares) 2,824,388 4,930 8,712,186 4,860,055 3,151,680 1,473,853 2,047,232 (%) 16.1 0.0 Suitable (hectares) 5,463,881 4,852,564 (%) 31.0 Moderate (hectares) 3,603,391 (%) 20.5 61.7 8.5 26.5 19.2 36.0 48.8 Not suitable (hectares) 5,710,565 1,875,670 1,504,782 1,492,000 476,618 2,648,355 3,640,250 (%) 32.4 10.7 8.6 8.5 2.71 15.1 20.7

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27.6 10,869,061 33.5 37.4 60.2 40.5 18.9 1,495,910 4,667,588 3,378,842 6,348,820 8,594,357

49.5 5,889,347 27.6 6,582,582 17.9 10,595,008 8.4 11.6 7,131,198 3,316,793

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soil texture suitability results support ndings by Rcker (2005), who classied the average soil texture of Uganda as sandy clay loam (about 27% clay) with lower clay content (5.9%17.4%) located in the central region and in the west, while the highest clay (52%57.7%) content can be found in the highlands. The dominant slope suitability class was suitable (37.4%), while 27.6% were classied as very suitable and 8.5% as unsuitable. The dominance of topography with slopes of 2%5% was attributed to the majority of Uganda consisting of a plateau with 84% of the land area between elevations of 900 m and 1,500 m. The potential for farm gate sales was classied as 17.9% very suitable, 60.2% suitable, 19.2% moderate, and 2.7% unsuitable. Modications of metric thresholds used by Aguilar-Manjarrez and Nath (1998) were used in this study, and the results differ due to the change in population dynamics. The increase was attributed to increased average population density from 85 people per square kilometer in 1991 to 123 people per square kilometer in 2002. At least 15.1% of the country was classied as unsuitable for access to local and regional markets because the time of travel to a populated area (50,000 people), to Kampala, or to a regional market was greater than six hours. The dominant suitability class for farm inputs was moderate suitability with 48.8% of the areal coverage. About 20.7% of the area was classied as unsuitable, while 11.6% was classied as very suitable for access to farm inputs.

Comparison of Crisp and Fuzzy Suitability Maps

Table 7 summarizes the land area classication by crisp and fuzzy methods, while Figure 4 shows the spatial distribution of overall tilapia and clarias farming suitability based on the two methods. The crisp and fuzzy maps for each criterion are given in the appendix. The classication results in Table 7 showed that 0.09% (16,322 hectares) of the land area was very suitable using the crisp approach compared to 0% (0 hectares) using the fuzzy approach. The crisp method classied more land as unsuitable (297,344 hectares) compared to 168,592 hectares by the fuzzy
TABLE 7 Summary of Overall Tilapia and Clarias Suitability Classication by the Crisp and Fuzzy Methods Crisp Area (hectares) Not suitable Moderate suitability Suitable Very suitable 297,344 9,052,242 8,232,659 16,322 Area (%) 1.69 51.44 46.78 0.09 Fuzzy Area (hectares) 168,592 9,666,518 7,763,457 0 Area (%) 0.96 54.93 44.11 0

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method. For both the crisp and the fuzzy approaches, more than 98% of the area was classied as suitable or moderately suitable; however, the distributions of the suitability values on each map varied. The very suitable locations by both maps are areas near Lake Victoria, while the unsuitable locations are areas in the northeast and southwest of the country. The northeast areas are characterized by dry periods, while the southwest areas experience low temperatures. There are two major areas that depict differences between the two maps: The areas include the northeastern part of the country and the areas near Lake Victoria and Lake Kyoga. The crisp method

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Water availability crisp (left image) and fuzzy (right image) suitability.

FIGURE 4 Geo-spatial distribution of Tilapia and Clarias farming suitability generated by Crisp (left) and fuzzy (right) methods (continued on next page) (color gure available online).

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Water temperature crisp (left image) and fuzzy (right image) suitability.

Soil texture crisp (left image) and fuzzy (right image) suitability.

FIGURE 4 (Continued on next page.)

classied more areas as unsuitable in the northeast of the country and more areas surrounding Lake Kyoga and Lake Victoria as very suitable compared to the fuzzy approach. However, the fuzzy method classied more areas around the shores of Lake Victoria and Lake Kyoga as suitable compared to the crisp method. The differences are due to the intrinsic characteristics of the fuzzy method compared to crisp approach. Suitability values based on the fuzzy method are recommended because the fuzzy method models the fuzziness of the human cognitive processes such that suitability classes do not have sharp (crisp) boundaries but degrees of membership between

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Percent slope crisp (left image) and fuzzy (right image) suitability.

Farm gate sales crisp (left image) and fuzzy (right image) suitability.

FIGURE 4 (Continued on next page.)

classes. Weighted linear aggregation of varying degrees of membership gave different results for the fuzzy-based map compared to the crisp-based map. To examine whether there was a statistical difference between crisp and fuzzy based suitability values, 400 points (same points on each map) were randomly selected and a two-sample paired t-test was implemented. The t-test results showed that there was a statistically signicant difference between suitability values generated by the crisp and fuzzy methods at 5% level of signicance. Further examination of the data points from the two maps showed that the fuzzy approach slightly overestimated suitability at

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Access to markets crisp (left image) and fuzzy (right image) suitability.

Access to farm inputs crisp (left image) and fuzzy (right image) suitability.

FIGURE 4 (Continued)

low values (1 to 2) compared to the crisp approach, while it dampened the suitability at high values (3 to 4). For values between 2 to 3, both methods gave comparable values. Therefore, the fuzzy method dampened occurrences of values at both extremes (unsuitable and very suitable). Comparison of generated suitability values with existing sh ponds showed that of the 138 shponds with operational pond status, the crisp method classied 71% as suitable sites and 29% as moderately suitable, while the fuzzy method classied 71.7% as suitable sites and 28.3% as moderately

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suitable sites. For the 30 shponds with nonoperational status, both the crisp and fuzzy methods classied 83.3% as being in suitable sites and 16.7% as being in moderately suitable sites. The authors attribute management issues to nonoperational status of the 30 ponds rather than site suitability. One prevalent management issue is levee compaction such that even at sites with high clay content for pond sealing, inadequate levee compaction leads to pond leaking. However, as in many commercial sectors, sh farming success depends on more than just site suitability.

CONCLUSIONS
The GIS implementation of crisp and fuzzy methods to model site suitability for tilapia and clarias farming generated different maps. The difference in suitability values was more dominant in the northeastern part of the country and areas around the shores of Lakes Victoria and Kyoga. For both the crisp and the fuzzy approaches, more than 98% of the land was classied as suitable or moderately suitable. However, the spatial distribution of suitable and moderate suitability by the two classication methods varied. The crisp approach classied more land area as unsuitable (297,344 hectares) compared to 168,592 hectares by the fuzzy approach. Also, the crisp method classied 0.09% (16,322 hectares) of the land area as very suitable compared to 0% (0 hectares) by the fuzzy method. The fuzzy approach estimated slightly higher suitability values at the lower extreme (unsuitable) compared to the crisp approach, while it dampened the suitability values at the upper extreme (very suitable). Suitability values based on the fuzzy method are recommended because the fuzzy method models the fuzziness of the human cognitive processes such that suitability classes do not have sharp (crisp) boundaries but degrees of membership between classes. Unsuitable areas can still be used for aquaculture, but the farmer/investor must be aware that higher costs of production may result from selecting a less-suitable site. For example, where water is abundant but soil is too sandy, or slopes are too steep, small ponds or tanks can be used with accompanying water exchange. The lower suitability values reected with the fuzzy approach suggest that grower success may be enhanced by focusing on management strategies that address the physical issues that reduce suitability in the fuzzy versus the crisp approaches.
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