SEB Housing Price Indicator declined in June

HOUSEHOLDS A TAD LESS OPTIMISTIC ON SWEDISH HOUSE PRICES. Deteriorating risk appetite in late May/early June was reflected in a renewed decline in the SEB Housing Price Indicator in June to a still solid 38 (May 45). The share of respondents expecting rising prices declined to 55% (58%), while the share expecting falling prices increased to 17% (13%), with 21% expecting unchanged prices (24%). All regions but one (SouthEast) saw a decline in sentiment. Stockholm respondents remain the most optimistic on house prices, though down from the latest peak in April. Households repo rate expectations were unchanged at 1.2% in one years time.
SEB's Regional Housing Price Indicator
70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

MONDAY 10 JUNE, 2013

A SLIGHT RIKSBANK RELIEF. The recovery in the housing price indicator in 2013 has been reflected in a slight pick-up in both lending and house prices. As such, signals that households are becoming slightly less optimistic on housing prices should, on the margin, come as a relief for the Riksbank ahead of the July 3 rate decision. However, while the housing price indicator declined in June it remains at levels that historically have signalled rising house prices. NEW REGULATIONS EASE THE PRESSURE ON RIKSBANK. Swedish authorities including the Riksbank, the Financial Supervisory Authority and the Ministry of Finance remain focused on risks for financial stability from rising household indebtedness. During the past month, the FSA formally decided to raise capital requirements for mortgage lending by introducing a new floor for risk weights on mortgage loans and comments from both the FSA and Finance Minister Borg suggest risk weights could be raised further if necessary. The FSA is also investigating ways to encourage amortisations on mortgage loans on loan-to-value rates below 75%, by regulations on individual amortisation plans. While the Riksbank will continue to warn households that a further build-up of debt will not be tolerated, recent regulatory initiatives should increase the room for Riksbank to focus more on low inflation.
Elisabet Kopelman +46 8 506 230 17

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Since March 2003 weve contracted Demoskop to survey the Swedish housing market every month. This survey was conducted 28 May5 June, 2013.

SEB's Housing Price Indicator

80 60 40 38 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: SEB, Demoskop

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You can also find our research materials at our website: www.mb.seb.se. This report is produced by Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken AB (publ) for institutional investors only. Information and opinions contained within this document are given in good faith and are based on sources believed to be reliable, we do not represent that they are accurate or complete. No liability is accepted for any direct or consequential loss resulting from reliance on this document. Changes may be made to opinions or information contained herein without notice.