Smart-Calling

Using propensity modeling to boost telesales response rates

Copyright 2008 Cartesian Consulting

Situation
If you are sourcing cold lists and undertaking massive telecalling activity to generate leads and sales, this case is for you Were going to look at how one can use statistical models to boost response rates by a factor of 3-4, with a corresponding bottomline impact

Copyright 2008 Cartesian Consulting

The Hard sell

Before: After:

You have 100 seats calling 100,000 prospects for 500 successes

You have 30 seats call 30,000 prospects for 450 successes

Copyright 2008 Cartesian Consulting

Step 1: Sample
Sample When you go list-shopping, dont buy it all, but take a sample If you havent done any modeling in the past, take a random sample If you KNOW what profiles give you better response then apply those filters Try keeping the sample large enough to capture 50+ successes in it, as that will be the profile that is modeled Run your telesales exercise on this sample, capturing winloss data

Model

Score/ Profile

Copyright 2008 Cartesian Consulting

Step 2: Model - a
Sample
Build a Logistic Regression model on the sample dataset to model for Wins (Win = 1, Loss = 0) The target variable is the Dichtomous Success variable The Explanatory variables include all the details you can on the profile of the prospect city, age, gender, income and lifestyle indicators etc., the source of the prospect record, the day and time of the call, the agent who made the call, the script that was used (if you are testing multiple), the offer made If youre getting into response modeling, its a good time to also get into testing offers and call scripts!

Model

Score/ Profile

Copyright 2008 Cartesian Consulting

Step 2: Model - b
Sample The model is built on a training dataset which is your sample data You could, if you have the data, hold out a Test dataset to check the robustness of your model Your Model statistics tell you if you have insufficient data, or insufficient variables Look at both Lift (explanatory power) and Robustness (predictive power). It is VERY important that the model can be applied to new datasets with good confidence of success!
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Model

Score/ Profile

Copyright 2008 Cartesian Consulting

Step 2: Model - c
1.2

Sample

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Model
0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3

Random

Validation

Random

Validation

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0%

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90%

Score/ Profile

0.2 0.1 0

The Gain and Lift curves show you how useful your model is to you from a business perspective They tell you: How many of your successes are you likely to capture targeting prospects based on the Model scores Eg. You can capture 80% of your good prospects within the top 20% (by propensity score) of your dataset

Copyright 2008 Cartesian Consulting

Step 3: Score
Sample Once your model has been built, score your fresh database with propensity scores Now target the top prospects by probability score for better response rates Use model outcomes to map prospects to telesales agents, time slots, scripts and offers in order to maximize on the responses

Model

Score/ Profile

Copyright 2008 Cartesian Consulting

Wheres the money?

By taking a random sample, perhaps you get a 1% response to your telesales By going to a Depth-of-File of 25% into you modeled database, you wean out the 25% good prospects with a high success probability You could get practically all (80%+) the respondents by targeting 25% of the base, at 3 4 times the success of a random selection

Copyright 2008 Cartesian Consulting

The ROI in it all

The ROI is hence in:
Fewer calls to be made Fewer agents needed Better list sourcing/ rentals Better control over the quality of the process More ability to test and make offers

Importantly, better insight into what works

Copyright 2008 Cartesian Consulting

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Thank You!
http://www.cartesianconsulting.com

Copyright 2008 Cartesian Consulting

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