2013 NYC Mayors Race

CONFIDENTIAL BRIEFING MEMO FOR INTERNAL USE ONLY May 31, 2013 Dont believe all of the doomsday talk youve heard surrounding the NYC mayoral race. Yes, Mayor Bloomberg is leaving office after 12 years and we are unlikely to see a new mayor with his independence and overall commitment to reforming K-12 public education, but that doesnt mean education reform will cease to exist in Gotham City under the next mayor. As we have recently begun fielding lots of questions in this area, we felt it would be wise for us to update DFER insiders on our current assessment of the 2013 NYC Mayoral race. We will go into far more detail at an upcoming in-person briefing, but this will provide a quick overview of how we currently size up this important race. We cannot stress enough how important it is to view this race as a SERIES of legs, with different challenges (and subsequent recalibrations and reinventions of the candidates themselves) at each hurdle. There has been a lot of chatter and subsequent hand-wringing - about what the press has called Pander-Palooza in this current stage of the campaign. We urge supporters to chill (Quoting Congressman Jim Clyburn) and look closely at what is happening with an eye toward how it will ultimately impact the race and the education reform movement in the city. We believe the current jockeying is far more interesting (and potentially far more beneficial to our cause) than the current dialogue would suggest. Obviously, these are subject to change based on changing political winds, but this is how we currently view each leg of the race: Phase 1: Seeking endorsements of major constituencies, including major donors, political clubs, and labor unions, including the United Federation of Teachers. WE OBVIOUSLY ARE IN THE MIDDLE OF THIS PHASE RIGHT NOW. With a crowded field heading into the Democratic primary, no candidate can plausibly hope to make it through to victory without carefully lining up a coalition which can translate into votes. We mention this not to patronize the reader or dwell upon the obvious, but to argue that it is 1|P a ge

entirely RATIONAL for multiple candidates to pander to an organization such as the UFT at this stage in the race. (You probably wouldnt want to be supporting a candidate who was too stupid to even try to get enough endorsements to win.) The bulk of this phase will soon be over and candidates will have ample opportunities to etch-a-sketch and reinvent themselves as the Romney campaign called it in 2012. And they will. Trust us. What is worth noting, for our purposes, is how careful several of the candidates namely Quinn and Thompson have attempted to play nicely with the UFT while not closing the door to being able to work with the education reform coalition later on down the road. There has been some serious parsing of words with regard to moratoriums on co-locations, for example, or allowing community input with regard to the same. Without specifics, those comments and positions mean little. The door has been left open to continued relationship-building here. SPOILER ALERT FOR PHASE 1: While we currently believe that the UFT is likely to endorse Thompson, we have continued to be in discussions with his camp and he has not said anything during Pander Palooza which would be a relationship-killer at this point, if his words (publicly and privately) are to be believed. Phase 2: On or around June 19th, the United Federation of Teachers delegate assembly is expected to make its endorsement for Mayor. This will mark the official start of the 2013 Mayors Race. As noted, we believe that the UFT will follow the lead of Randi Weingarten and endorse Thompson for mayor. While there will be a strong argument for a de Blasio endorsement, especially on the heels of the 1199 endorsement last week, it will be important for the UFT to get behind someone who has a clear path to victory a case which has been increasingly difficult for de Blasio to make. (This could obviously change as endorsements continue to mount and momentum shifts. That said, the pressure will be on the UFT to get its ducks lined up before then and choose a horse with a chance of winning. It is not lost on observers that the UFT has not backed a winning candidate for mayor since Mayor Dinkins first run a quarter century ago. To date, teacher delegates have been primarily debating whether their endorsement should go to Thompson or John Liu. The latter has the toughest path to victory of anyone in the existing field.) This should not be viewed as a discouraging moment for reform advocates. The biggest prize for the UFT in the pandering process would have been a line of candidates calling for the elimination of co-locations. That didnt happen. In the current field, both Quinn and Weiner appear to support co-locations and Thompson and de Blasio have offered adequately confusing responses on the issue. This is good news for charter schools, even though it is not abundantly clear that many more co-location requests are even in the pipeline for the short-term horizon. 1 We see this as a clear sign that charter schools have finally hit a critical mass period in NYC. While it is currently popular to criticize the DOE for the way it handles co-locations, it has become increasingly
1

There are currently only 66 more slots for charters under state law, and we see little evidence that there is a significant number of new schools in the pipeline for the next several years.

2|P a ge

difficult for politicians to oppose co-locations outright, particularly because most co-locations do not even involve charter schools. Clearly, this is more of a draw than an outright victory, but should be carefully considered when assessing how to proceed in this race as a movement. As stated previously, on or around June 19th the candidate who receives the UFT endorsement will need to work on an acceptance statement which shows he or she is grateful to the union, but also avoids alienating the reform coalition, if the candidate wishes for this important constituency to be in play for later support. (de Blasio and Liu are the only candidates who dont include support from reformers in their path to victory, but they are currently lagging behind the others in the race and Liu, in particular, appears unlikely to advance at this stage.) It will be a long summer, with ups and downs and editorial page endorsements, but most of the action will heat up in the final weeks of August and early September. Phase 3: The Democratic Primary on September 10th. While Christine Quinn currently remains the front-runner in the race, it is now clear that she is unlikely to have enough support (40% of the vote) from Democratic voters to avoid a run-off election. Again, there is a lot of time before Election Day, however, current polls have her coming in at the 24-30% mark. Regardless, we will see one of three scenarios here, which will play out for education reformers: 1. Quinn wins the primary outright with more than 40% of the vote and advances to the general election. This is good, though again, unlikely at this point. 2. Quinn advances to the run-off, along with one of the other candidates. 3. One of the challengers,eitherWeiner, Thompson, or de Blasio, puts together a strong enough coalition and creates an unanticipated burst of momentum in August to win outright. The key objective for education reformers, obviously, is making sure that the run-off election is between Quinn and Someone Good, or at least Someone Not Bad, or that the surging candidate in August is receptive to the idea that public education ought to be a lot better in the city. This hedge, as you will see below, is entirely do-able if we galvanize enough support behind this strategic deployment of effort. Phase 4: The Run-off election on September 24th. Assuming there are two good Democrats facing off, advocates can concentrate on keeping the bar raised high for education reform. Rather that showing a united front, reformers may encourage splits to further play the hedge. Phase 5: The General Election on November 5th. Under current conditions, we see zero chance that a Republican candidate will win. Before we expand on the hedge idea, we offer a brief assessment of the candidates current situations, as we see them.

3|P a ge

1. Christine Quinn Currently leading the pack, but her support particularly among her obvious base in the Gay and Lesbian community has been on the decline for several months. Quinn appears to be in prevent-defense mode at the moment; shes winning the game (slightly) and trying to prevent others from scoring. But she, herself, is not pro-actively doing much of anything to try to score. Her strategy seems to be building a coalition which will give her JUST ENOUGH votes to lead in the run-off and then to victory in the general election. (She can win hearts and minds later, once she gets elected.) Potential Threats: - Weiner seriously over-performs with frustrated liberals and disaffected voters (especially nonPrime Dems, or registered Dems who dont normally vote in primary elections. This throws off Quinns winning calculation and keeps her on defense throughout the campaign. Weiner The Populist has a strong showing in the primary and enters the run-off with the Big Mo. - Thompson surges by taking the majority black vote in the primary, along with Jews and other traditional prime Dems, who remain turned-off by Quinn and her close ties to Bloomberg. A very strong showing by Thompson in the primary gives him the Big Mo heading into the run-off and the coalition propels him to victory. - de Blasio is able to convert some notable labor endorsements into a sense of momentum which has heretofore eluded his campaign. At this point, attacks on Quinn this spring were supposed to bring down her numbers and improve de Blasios. The former happened, but the latter did not. Instead, Quinn voters moved to undecided, one of the reasons de Blasios campaign appears to have stalled prior to the potentially pivotal 1199 endorsement. 2. Anthony Weiner Polling a surprising strong second right now, even after his awkward relaunch, Weiner is grabbing all of the press attention these days. The press was already bored with this race and they desperately needed/wanted him to enter to spice things up. Now that he is teed up, the press will shift gears in the coming weeks and months to work to take him down before the primary. The question is whether Weiner will be able to use earned media in the short-term (before the press turns on him) to connect with voters who are frustrated with the current field of candidates. Weiner has already practically warned us via television interview there are likely to be other women who emerge alleging lewd conduct on his part, and as much as the press may enjoy reporting on it, it remains to be seen whether Weiner has already taken his lumps in this area. If it starts to feel like overreach on the part of reporters and the other candidates, Weiner could carefully invoke a sort of double-jeopardy standard which makes him look like a victim of the establishment. It is not crazy at this point to see Weiner assembling the kind of quirky, angry coalition which propelled Jesse The Body Ventura as governor of Minnesota in the 1990s. If voters can be led to believe that the other candidates, by their overreach, are the real joke in this race. And to be clear, Weiner had already been considered a front-runner before his scandal broke, so his candidacy is not nearly as far-fetched as Venturas was. If you believe some of the polling right now, Weiner would finish second to Quinn in the primary and face a run-off. A more likely 4|P a ge

scenario is that Weiner will duke it out with Thompson for the #2 slot. A lot can happen this summer and the distance between today and Primary Election Day appears to be longer for Weiner than for any other candidate. Potential Threats: - Weiner himself. He is capable of losing it and, under certain instances, could squander any sympathy from those who are sick of the usual machine politics. We have no idea how many other skeletons there may be in his closet, but we do know the national press corps will be on constant lookout for Weiner scandal. - Thompson shows significant outer-borough appeal, especially with white voters. - The rest of the field makes Weiner Target #1 and he responds in such a way that he is unable to turn the attacks into his own plus with disaffected voters. Meaning: they all attack him and it works. 3. Bill Thompson His recent surge in momentum has surprised everyone but Merryl Tisch, who has been working behind-the-scenes to secure support for his race for months. He is a real candidate who seems to be pacing himself well for the entire race. There are many scenarios in which he is the one who takes on Quinn in the run-off. While many observers assume his path to victory involves locking up the black vote citywide (Floyd Flake recently endorsed him), Thompson has been making strategic in-roads with other prime Dem voters, with Tischs support. We anticipate that the UFT will endorse Thompson in a few weeks. Aside from the obvious boost it affords the Thompson campaign, it is more meaningful for what it takes away from de Blasio and John Liu. WE BELIEVE THE UFT IS MORE LIKELY TO ENDORSE THOMPSON IF IT BELIEVES HE HAS THE BEST SHOT OF MAKING IT TO THE RUN-OFF WITH QUINN. Assuming Thompson looks strong heading into mid-June, the UFTs endorsement will make it likely that he either takes on Quinn in the run-off or challenges Weiner for that right. Potential Threats: - A surging Weiner complicates Thompsons claim for the #2 slot. - Quinn, herself, surges and wins the primary outright. - De Blasio momentum galvanizes labor in a meaningful way behind his campaign. 4. Bill de Blasio After lagging for months without much progress, de Blasios campaign was given a major boost when the Service Employees (1199) endorsed him. The biggest question seems to be whether he can exchange this endorsement for serious momentum going forward, perhaps even locking-in the coveted UFT endorsement. In the latest Marist poll, for example, de Blasio is still polling ahead of Thompson and has more money on hand. Of all of the candidates, de Blasio has offered the least support for issues of concern to education reform advocates. 5|P a ge

Potential Threats: - Liu continues to gain traction with some labor groups, making it difficult for de Blasio to hold a strong enough labor coalition heading into the primary. The DC37 endorsement of Liu suggests this threat is well under way. If Liu remains in the race, it will make the labor vote much less potent. A Plan For Action: What we propose is a well-orchestrated hedge to ensure that the two candidates who make it through the primary to the run-off are acceptable to reform activists. This will involve strategically supporting a good chunk of the field, namely Quinn, Thompson and Weiner. Keys To Winning The Hedge: - Continue to QUIETLY work with Quinn, Thompson and Weiner. - Dont publicly alienate Quinn, Thompson, or Weiner. - Support efforts to make Quinn, Thompson, and Weiner viable candidates, including small dollar fundraising. - De-escalating education reform as a key issue in the PRIMARY election. We are better off pushing publicly AFTER the candidates have recalibrated on Primary Election Day. We will provide additional information in the coming weeks. Please let us know if you would like to get involved.

6|P a ge