Low Carbon Technology Assessment 2002 Making Our Investment Count

Making business sense of climate change

Low Carbon Technology Assessment 2002

Contents
Purpose of this research

Page

Background and scope

Overview of approach

Results of the assessment

Technology profiles

Purpose of this research

The Carbon Trust was set up in March 2001 as part of the UKs Climate Change Programme. Its establishment followed agreement between business and Government that a new independent body was needed to:

Help UK business and the public sector contribute to meeting goals for reducing greenhouse gas emissions; Help create a low carbon technology sector in the UK; and Begin the move towards a low carbon economy.

Many low carbon technologies exist, all at varying stages of development. To help identify where LCIP should concentrate its investment, the Carbon Trust commissioned a Low Carbon Technology Assessment. The supporting analysis for this work was carried out by Future Energy Solutions (from AEA Technology) and Building Research Establishment on behalf of the Carbon Trust. The aims of this publication are to give potential proposers to LCIP and co-investors a clearer view on how LCIP intends to focus its resources and more generally to make stakeholders aware of the assessment and its role within LCIP. It is the Carbon Trusts intention to keep this assessment under review and we will be updating it annually.

Making the transition to a low carbon economy will require a step change in the use of renewable energy and major improvements in energy efficiency across all sectors. With these challenges in mind, the Prime Minister has given the Carbon Trust a remit to take the lead in the field of low carbon technology innovation. The Carbon Trust believes that, to do this effectively with the resources available, it needs to focus on technologies that offer the greatest carbon saving potential and where the Carbon Trusts investment can make a material difference to the development and commercialisation of that technology. With this in mind the Carbon Trust developed the Low Carbon Innovation Programme (LCIP) to accelerate the development and commercialisation of new and emerging low carbon technologies in the UK. LCIP acts in a similar manner to a venture capital company seeking the best carbon return, rather than a specific financial return, although LCIP seeks an appropriate financial return where possible.

Background and scope

The Foundation Programme which was launched in May 2002, is the initial part of a much larger and more comprehensive funding programme, the Low Carbon Innovation Programme (LCIP) which should be launched in 2003. Over the next three years, LCIP plans to invest a total of 75 million in selected technologies and businesses that can help the UK move towards a low carbon economy.
The Low Carbon Technology Assessment was commissioned to help LCIP make best use of its investment resource. It was designed to give guidance on those technology groups with substantial potential for carbon emissions reduction and where LCIP investment can make a material difference to the technologys advancement given other public/private sector funding. The assessment identified technologies with the potential to contribute to the transition to a low carbon economy. As a starting point, it took the review of energy technologies compiled by the Chief Scientific Advisers Energy Research Review Group in February 2002. The list was added to and refined as the assessment progressed and currently includes 49 technologies. This represents a comprehensive though by no means exhaustive list of key carbon saving technologies varying considerably in scale, maturity, and field of application.

Overview of technologies reviewed

Demand - side buildings:

Supply - side: fuels & conventional energy production

Supply - side: renewables

Transport:
Biomass - transport Fuel cells - transport High efficiency automotive

Enabling technologies

Building fabric Controls & building energy management systems Cooling Heating Integrated building design Lighting Ventilation

Carbon dioxide sequestration CHP advanced macro CHP domestic micro Cleaner coal combustion Coal bed methane Fuel cells - baseload power Fuel cells domestic CHP Fuel cells industrial & commercial Nuclear fission Nuclear fusion Ultra high efficiency combined cycle gas turbines (CCGT) Waste to energy

Biomass - local electricity generation Biomass - local heat generation Geothermal Low - head hydro Photoconversion Solar photovoltaic Solar thermal electric (high temperature generation) Solar water heating collectors Tidal energy lagoons & barrages Tidal stream Wave energy offshore / nearshore devices Wave energy shoreline devices Wind power onshore & offshore

Electricity storage technolgies High voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission to shore Hydrogen infrastructure (including transport) Hydrogen production Hydrogen storage & distribution Intermediate energy vectors Smart metering

Demand - side industry:

Alternative equipment Combustion technologies Materials Process control Process intensification Separation technologies Waste heat recovery

Overview of approach
The 49 technologies identified were evaluated using the process developed as part of the assessment exercise. The key stages in this process were:

1. Establishment of assessment criteria

Seven criteria were developed to assess each technology. They were formulated based on the objectives of LCIP itself and on the overall goals of the Carbon Trust. The issues of carbon saving potential and LCIP materiality are at the heart of these criteria, which can be summarised as follows: (i) What scope is there for this technology to reduce carbon emissions at a competitive cost in the short, medium and long term/what is the overall commercial potential?

3. Production of technology summaries

For each technology, an expert in the field produced a short summary of its current status, future potential and the barriers impeding its development. The template for these summaries ensured that information relevant to the seven main criteria was set out in a consistent manner.

4. Preliminary scoring
Each technology was scored using the technology summary and the scoring system outlined above.

(ii) What scope is there for this technology to contribute to the development of the low carbon technology industry and knowledge base in the UK? (iii) What might be the risks of investing in this technology? (iv) What spin-off benefits might arise from supporting this technology? (v) Could LCIP funding make a material difference to the short, medium and long term development of this technologys progress?

5. Moderation process
To ensure that the key features of all technologies were being assessed consistently, a moderation process was applied at this stage. This included peer review by the Technology Advisory Group to the Carbon Trust.

6. Final scoring
Each technology was given a final score, based on input given in step 5.

(vi) Could LCIP funding stimulate investment from other funding sources? (vii) Could LCIP help to address barriers slowing the take-up of this technology?

2. Development of a scoring system

A scoring system was developed to objectively score each of the criteria outlined above. These individual scores were then combined into two overall scores for each technology: one for Technology Impact (largely based on carbon saving potential and economic viability) and one for LCIP Impact (based on the extent to which LCIP funding could make a material difference to the technologys progress).

Overview of approach
The final scores were used to place each technology in one of the following categories: FOCUS, CONSIDER, MONITOR or REVIEW PERIODICALLY. These categories are depicted in the chart below.
The Carbon Trusts intention is that FOCUS (and CONSIDER) technologies should comprise the core of LCIPs investment portfolio. Technologies in the CONSIDER category will need to demonstrate the potential for breakthroughs which could increase their technology impact i.e. they have to have game changing potential to deliver large carbon savings. Meanwhile, the onus will be on proponents of technologies classified under MONITOR and REVIEW PERIODICALLY seeking funding from LCIP to make a clear case for the carbon reduction potential of the technology and for LCIPs materiality in bringing the technology to market. In addition, although this review focused on overall technology groups we will also consider proposals in the MONITOR and REVIEW PERIODICALLY categories for sub-technologies, enabling technologies, system components etc. if they can demonstrate sufficient technology and LCIP impact.

Technology categorisation
High MONITOR:

FOCUS:

Technologies with high carbon saving potential but where LCIP investment would not make a material difference LCIP will not invest in these technologies at this point, but will maintain a watching brief

Technologies with high carbon saving potential and where LCIP investment would make a material difference These technologies will represent the core of the portfolio of projects in which LCIP invests

Technology Impact

REVIEW PERIODICALLY:

CONSIDER:

Technologies with low carbon saving potential and where LCIP investment would not make a material difference LCIP will not invest in these technologies at this point, but will reassess them periodically

Technologies with low carbon saving potential but where LCIP investment might make a material difference These technologies will attract LCIP investment if a proposed project has the potential to impact fundamentally on the carbon - saving performance of the technology concerned

Low Low

LCIP Impact

High

Results of the assessment

The outcome of the assessment is summarised below:

Overall findings from assessment

High MONITOR:

FOCUS:

Technology Impact

Biomass for transport Building controls Carbon dioxide sequestration Fuel cells (transport, baseload power) Industry (alternative equipment) Nuclear fission

Smart metering Ultra-high efficiency CCGT Waste to energy Wind - onshore and offshore

Biomass for local heat generation Building (fabric, heating, ventilation, cooling, integrated design) CHP (domestic micro, advanced macro) Fuel cells (domestic CHP , industrial and commercial)

Hydrogen (infrastructure including transport, production, storage and distribution) Industry (combustion technologies, materials, process control, process intensification, separation technologies)

REVIEW PERIODICALLY:

CONSIDER:

Cleaner coal combustion Geothermal High efficiency automotive HVDC transmission Intermediate energy vectors Low head hydro Nuclear fusion

Solar thermal electric Tidal (lagoons, barrages)

Biomass for local electricity generation Building (lighting) Coal-bed methane Electricity storage technologies Industry (waste heat recovery) Photoconversion Solar photovoltaics

Solar water heating collectors Tidal stream Wave (offshore, nearshore devices and shoreline)

Low Low

LCIP Impact

High

Results of the assessment

The Low Carbon Technology Assessment provides a snapshot of a situation that is constantly evolving as markets change, technologies develop and new options emerge. The Carbon Trust will commission further work to ensure that its understanding keeps pace with these developments and to incorporate a broad range of input.
We intend to rerun the exercise during 2003 and would welcome input from interested parties on the potential of relevant technologies to help the UK move towards a low carbon economy. We have set up a dedicated e-mail address to capture input at LCTA@thecarbontrust.co.uk We believe that the Low Carbon Technology Assessment will provide a useful tool to inform decision-making in the Low Carbon Innovation Programme. In all cases, proposers into LCIP need to demonstrate their ability to deliver against the following criteria: 1. Does the proposal demonstrate the potential for material savings in carbon dioxide emissions? 2. Does the proposal contain an innovative element, i.e. a step change in technology design or in the application of a technology or process? 3. Does the proposal clearly identify a route to commercial viability or the potential to progress to the next stage in the innovation chain? 4. Has the proposer demonstrated that the proposal would not be taken forward in a timely manner without LCIP funding or that LCIP brings an extra dimension to the proposal? 5. Will the proposals funding be leveraged through other sources of finance? Will duplication of other UK and internationally funded work be avoided? 6. Has the proposer shown an awareness of the technical and commercial risks within the proposal? 7. Does the proposal demonstrate a plan for successful delivery of the proposals objectives? 8. Does the proposal benefit the UK? 9. Does the proposal balance the potential to reduce carbon dioxide emissions against other environmental targets? 10. Does the proposal conform with the strategic objectives of the Carbon Trust and LCIP?

Technology profiles: FOCUS

This final section indicates the category to which each of the 49 technologies is currently assigned, as a result of the Low Carbon Technology Assessment. It also outlines some of the key characteristics of each technology.

Biomass for Local Heat Generation

Biomass fuel can be combusted to provide heat in fully automated boilers that are readily available from a large number of manufacturers around the world. Although the development of the market for biomass heat in the UK offers significant scope for carbon savings at modest cost, the high cost of biomass boilers compared with fossil fuel units of equivalent size and the lack of fuel supply infrastructure represent major barriers to take-up. Addressing these barriers will depend on a volume market for biomass becoming established.

Building Heating
Domestic heating is a mature sector, with both understanding and development of boiler technology well advanced. Although condensing and other more efficient boilers offer substantial carbon saving potential, a range of non-technical barriers are impeding market penetration. The most significant barriers include lack of market awareness and lack of installer/equipment accreditation. Moreover, installers are often reluctant to recommend the installation of condensing boilers. A lack of understanding also exists regarding the way that domestic users interact with heating control systems.

Building Cooling
The cooling of buildings is a growing market that, due to reliance on electricity-powered systems, could be a significant source of carbon dioxide emissions in the future. Although more environmentally friendly cooling systems based on gas and other alternatives are being introduced, barriers to their take-up exist in the UK, such as a lack of sales, service and support infrastructure. Moreover, there is no UK manufacturing capability that can meet growing demand for alternative systems of this kind.

Building Integrated Design

Building integrated design, based on close collaboration between the design team and the client, can reduce the need for energy-intensive building services by making greater use of natural lighting, heating, cooling and ventilation. Considerable carbon savings are achievable in both new and refurbished buildings, mainly because this technique enables the carbon saving potential of other technologies to be realised. Current building custom and practice, often militates against the adoption of this approach. In general, there is also a lack of awareness among building developers and occupiers of the economic, environmental, health, productivity and other commercial benefits that building integrated design can provide.

Building Fabric
Over the last 25 years, considerable advances have been made in materials and in construction technologies related to insulated faade engineering and insulated glazing. However, these advances have not always fed through into production and procurement processes, due to conservatism and lack of awareness within the construction industry and among its clients. Progress in this area is a prerequisite if the significant carbon saving potential of new building fabric technologies is to be realised and the industry is to invest further in the development of new ideas. In addition high efficiency insulants would have a major impact on emissions.

Building Ventilation
Improved systems and controls for natural and mechanical ventilation have the potential to significantly reduce the amount of energy used by services within buildings (both new and refurbished). The considerable carbon reductions offered by these improvements are likely to be very cost effective, particularly when synergies between heating and cooling are exploited. However, the strongly price-driven nature of this mature market acts as a barrier to investment in innovation. Overall, this is a low risk technology that is well matched to the skills and resources that are currently available in the UK.

Technology profiles: FOCUS

CHP Advanced Macro

Due to its potential economic and environmental benefits, Combined Heat & Power (CHP) is already a widely used carbon saving technology. The next generation of CHP technologies offers the potential for even better performance, lower costs and lower carbon emissions as a result of improved power efficiency and greater use of renewable fuels. For macro schemes (i.e. those with a capacity of over 30kWe), developments such as the greater use of biomass fuels etc could contribute to advanced CHP replacing existing schemes and allow its deployment in new applications.

Fuel Cells Industrial & Commercial

Fuel cells can operate using non-carbon fuels. In industrial and commercial markets, they represent an attractive potential option for use in premium power, back-up power and CHP applications. Such deployment would help UK companies to achieve environmental performance targets and could contribute significantly to sustainable energy use. As with other potential fuel cell applications, there is a need to reduce capital costs and a requirement for information on performance under commercial-type conditions.

CHP Domestic Micro

Stirling engine based micro CHP schemes may offer a new and potentially promising means of delivering carbon savings in homes and in small commercial and other buildings. Although some demonstration schemes have been installed, the technology is basically at the prototype stage and considerable work remains to be done in areas such as performance and operating costs before volume markets can be established. The UK enjoys very good conditions for creating a leading knowledge base in this technology and scope exists to acquire a share of the potentially valuable world market.

Hydrogen Infrastructure (including Transport)

Although hydrogen has considerable potential as a carbon saving energy carrier, little currently exists in terms of supply pipelines and other distribution infrastructure to enable its widespread use in vehicle, stationary power or portable power applications. If hydrogen is to realise its medium to long term potential, there is a need for a Government/industry partnership over the next 10-15 years to underpin UK investment. In addition, regulations and incentives are needed to encourage local production, storage and transport infrastructure technologies, which could also promote UK involvement in large international programmes of work currently underway around the world.

Fuel Cells Domestic CHP

Fuel cells can operate using non-carbon fuels and are, in many ways, similar to primary batteries. Their modular nature, long operating life and low maintenance requirement mean that they have the potential to displace grid electricity and conventional gas boilers in domestic applications. They could make an important contribution to sustainable energy use in the UK. To do so, capital costs need to be reduced and experience needs to be gained in system integration, installation, maintenance and operation.

Hydrogen Production
Hydrogen is an energy carrier with major carbon saving potential, as long as it can be produced from zero or low carbon energy sources such as renewables. Production of hydrogen by electrolysis uses electricity as the premium fuel and is a well-established technology, although not at the scale needed if hydrogen is to become a significant energy carrier. While hydrogen is not likely to be deployed on a large scale before 2030, action taken now could ensure that the technology becomes available at that time and that appropriate niche deployment takes place before then. Although the UK is not currently a leading player, it has many relevant skills, e.g. in chemical engineering, and could still catch up with its competitors in favourable areas.

Technology profiles: FOCUS

Hydrogen Storage & Distribution
The widespread use of hydrogen as an energy carrier, and the significant carbon savings that could result, will require the development of storage and distribution technologies that are safe and efficient. This presents a number of challenges in terms of cost and engineering. As well as the delivery of the necessary technologies, the public will need to be convinced about the safety of storing and distributing hydrogen. In the UK, significant effort will be needed to catch up and then keep pace with progress being made in other parts of the world.

Industry Process Intensification

Replacing conventional industrial plant with smaller plant of the same capacity can offer a range of benefits, including lower capital costs and improved energy efficiency. However, the development of unconventional plant of this kind is commonly viewed as high-risk and often needs substantial R&D. As a result, only a few examples (mainly heat exchangers, reactors and separation plant) have been developed and used commercially to date. The UK currently has excellent R&D expertise in this field.

Industry Combustion Technologies

Increasing the efficiency of combustion technologies used by high temperature industries has the potential to deliver considerable energy and carbon savings. This could be achieved through the development of new technologies as well as the wider take-up of existing ones. Although the UK has considerable expertise in this field, recent years have seen a reduced focus on long term R&D and on the maintenance and development of the skills base needed to ensure progress in this sector.

Industry Separation Technologies

The separation technologies currently used by the chemical, pharmaceutical and other industrial sectors are generally well proven. They include membrane processes, distillation, evaporation, drying and crystallisation, with the UK having particular skills in the first two of these areas. The fact that existing technologies are so well established represents a barrier to the take-up of more energy efficient options that could deliver significant carbon savings. This lack of awareness and confidence is compounded in instances where the deployment of new technologies would involve relatively high capital expenditure.

Industry Materials
Improvements in materials technology have the potential to deliver significant savings in industrial energy use. These improvements include the development of new materials, better ways of using existing materials, and new processing methods. Scope could exist for the UK to develop a capability in the niche markets of ceramics, specialist metals and equipment manufacture, although the feasibility of doing this has not yet been assessed. A gap is evident between academic research and industry, and a lack of investment has also been apparent in applications engineering focused on energy and carbon saving.

Industry Process Control

Covering a wide variety of different technologies, better control and automation of industrial processes has the potential to realise considerable energy and carbon savings across the full range of industry sectors. Although the market is dominated by a handful of multinationals, small UK companies operate successfully in the niche areas of sensors, software tools and applications engineering. These companies have the potential both to develop new process control and automation products and to bring them to the marketplace.

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Technology profiles: CONSIDER

Biomass for Local Electricity Generation
Solid fuels derived from plant materials can be utilised by a range of technologies for the production of baseload electricity. The use of standard combustion/steam cycle plant for this purpose is already commonplace in well-wooded parts of the world, such as Scandinavia and North America. However, because of their low conversion efficiency, the small biomass power stations that would be appropriate to fuel supply conditions and transport infrastructure in the UK would produce high cost electricity. Advanced conversion plant offer the prospect of much higher conversion efficiencies and therefore lower cost power, but are not yet fully commercialised.

Electricity Storage Technologies

Significant power generation from renewable energy sources, which are often intermittent, will require the development of energy storage technologies. A range of such technologies, including advanced batteries, are currently in use or under development. However, because electricity storage will only be needed when renewables and CHP contribute more than 15-20% of UK supply, these technologies are unlikely to make a significant cost-effective contribution to carbon saving in the UK in the short term. Economic viability will also depend on the establishment of an appropriate market and regulatory system. Nevertheless, the UK could be a key player in this area in the medium term, building on the substantial expertise that already exists.

Building Lighting
Energy efficient lighting and lighting control technologies offer the potential for largely cost-effective carbon savings, as well as improved comfort for building occupiers. Advances in this area, such as the development of new light sources and their control gear, are mostly driven by the main companies active within the sector. Although the technology is mature, scope does exist for UK involvement in future developments. Lighting is a low-risk technology that is well matched to the skills and resources currently available in the UK.

Industry Waste Heat Recovery

The many technologies available for the recovery and use of waste heat generated by industrial processes are generally well-established. Nevertheless, there is scope to develop new ideas as well as to improve the cost-competitiveness and therefore the deployment rate of existing ones. The UK currently has a leading position in some key waste heat recovery sectors, such as compact heat exchangers.

Photoconversion
Photoconversion, which involves capturing the energy in light using chemical, biological or electrochemical systems, is primarily at the research stage, with a move from the laboratory to industrial R&D a key prerequisite to full commercialisation in the future. The technology is unlikely to make a significant contribution to carbon savings in the UK in the short to medium term. However, the UK, which currently has a small but active photoconversion research base, could play an important role in the long term if the technology develops successfully.

Coal Bed Methane

Techniques for extracting and utilising the methane-rich gas that occurs naturally in coal seams are fairly well developed. The UK has considerable expertise in this area. Although public perception and planning permission represent substantial barriers to schemes based on virgin coal seams, the extraction of the gas from abandoned and operating mines may represent a more viable option. The technology is unlikely to make a very significant contribution to carbon (equivalent) savings in the UK in the short to medium term.

Solar Photovoltaics
Photovoltaics (PV) involves the use of semiconductors to generate electricity direct from sunlight. The main technical challenge currently facing the substantial worldwide PV industry is the need to reduce costs while maintaining or improving performance. Although it has strengths in niche areas, the UK is a relatively small player in the field of PV and is likely to remain so in the short to medium term. The technology is unlikely to make a significant cost-effective contribution to carbon saving in this country over the same timeframe.

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Technology profiles: CONSIDER

Solar Water-Heating Collectors
The use of solar energy collectors to provide domestic hot water and low temperature process heating is a well-established technology where further incremental improvements may be feasible. Although the UK has capability in the manufacturing, installation and servicing of solar water-heating systems, the market in this country is currently small. This is mainly because the cost of systems is high compared with conventional alternatives and because public awareness of the technology is generally low. To some extent, the second of these barriers is compounded by the negative perceptions that exist about the technology and its reliability, owing to the fact that commercial delivery of solar water-heating is not yet mature.

Wave Offshore/Nearshore Devices

A wide range of offshore and nearshore devices to harness wave energy are currently under development in the UK and elsewhere. None of these devices has yet progressed beyond the scale prototype stage. Further understanding of individual devices, their operation and cost, engineering approaches to their construction and their resilience to marine conditions are needed before the technology can be considered viable. However, in view of the UKs huge wave energy resource, a substantial market could exist in this country for devices that are technically proven and cost-competitive.

Wave Shoreline Devices

There are currently many different designs of shoreline wave energy device at various stages of development. To date, a number of prototype plant have been built both in the UK and elsewhere. Overall, the technology is at an early stage of development, with improvements in design, construction and efficiency needed to reduce costs to a competitive level. The UK has a significant shoreline wave energy resource and is a leader in the development of the technology.

Tidal Stream
Tidal stream involves the use of rotors, either floating in the sea or mounted on the sea bed, to harness the energy contained in marine currents. The concept requires no fundamentally new technologies and development is now at the prototype stage. At present, efforts are focused on proving the technical performance, efficiency and reliability of different generator designs. Although the UK has a significant tidal resource, the extent of its potential take-up in this country is uncertain. Nevertheless, the UK is one of only a handful of countries investigating device concepts and, with longstanding expertise in marine engineering, it could play a leading role in tidal stream technology.

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Technology profiles: MONITOR

Biomass for Transport
Biomass can be converted into carbon saving transport fuels using both proven and emerging processes. Two such fuels ethanol and biodiesel are currently deployed commercially in some parts of the world. Other fuels that are preferable to these from an economic and environmental viewpoint are at earlier stages of development. All biomass-derived transport fuels cost considerably more than conventional petrol. As a result, markets are essentially politically driven for instance, in the UK, ethanol and biodiesel deployment will largely depend on whether and to what extent these fuels are exempted from fuel duty.

Fuel Cells Baseload Power

Fuel cells can operate using non-carbon fuels. Because of their potential for high efficiency and low maintenance, fuel cells could make a valuable contribution to sustainable baseload power generation in the UK in the longer term. Commercial application will depend, however, on the achievement of capital cost reductions and demonstration of fuel cells ability to meet relevant requirements in terms of operating life, durability and efficiency. This in turn will require significant public and private sector investment in demonstration initiatives and field trials.

Building Controls
Building controls and energy management systems ensure that building services such as heating, lighting, ventilation, cooling and air conditioning are only used when needed and to the extent required. As a result of their potential to have a major impact on the amount of energy used by all such services, building controls offer scope for substantial, cost-effective carbon savings. The sector is fast moving and is already receptive to technological advances in this field, with manufacturers undertaking their own R&D. The technology is well matched to skills and resources currently available in the UK.

Fuel Cells Transport

Fuel cells, which can operate using non-carbon fuels, are particularly suited to road transport applications. Although precise commercial prospects are unclear, significant sales of fuel cell powered vehicles are commonly predicted and could make an important contribution to carbon saving. The UK already has a strong capability in many key areas of fuel cell technology and significant commercial opportunities could present themselves to UK industry as the technology develops.

Industry Alternative Equipment

Increasing industrys use of more efficient ways of providing heat, power and refrigeration, and of other more efficient equipment, offers substantial scope for energy and carbon savings. Potential options cover a range of different technologies, including motors, heat pumps, refrigeration systems, and alternative drying and heating technologies. However, take-up is slow because engineers tend to replace failing components with similar products. While a significant manufacturing capability for such equipment still exists in the UK, in addition to substantial design expertise, many companies have recently relocated manufacturing operations overseas.

Carbon Dioxide Sequestration

The sequestration of carbon dioxide could significantly reduce UK emissions of this gas. While the use of forestry as carbon dioxide sinks is a feasible option, sequestration in the UK would generally require technologies covering separation of carbon dioxide (from fossil fuels or flue gases), transportation, and final disposal or storage. It could most economically be applied to large-scale emissions sources such as power stations and oil refineries. The UK has a strong research, technical and industrial base in this area, as well as considerable potential disposal capacity, e.g. through the use of carbon dioxide in enhanced oil recovery.

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Technology profiles: MONITOR

Nuclear Fission
Nuclear fission, in which uranium atoms are split to release energy, forms the basis of all current nuclear power capacity worldwide. The technology produces very low carbon emissions and has the potential to make a major contribution to carbon saving. In the last two decades, though concerns over safety, waste and the relatively high costs of nuclear electricity have led to a considerable global slowdown in construction of new plant. Designs for nuclear power stations are now focusing on increased safety features and on delivering lower cost power. However, the investment required to develop the necessary demonstration and prototype facilities and to undertake R&D into nuclear waste disposal issues would be extremely large.

Waste to Energy
Two main technologies are applicable to schemes that combust municipal solid waste and capture the heat produced: grate combustion systems, which are well established and cost competitive in the UK and overseas; and fluidised bed combustion systems, which are not commercially proven in the UK but are used elsewhere. Advanced options, such as gasification and pyrolysis, are under development. Overall, waste to energy has valuable greenhouse gas saving potential, with precise performance depending on the carbon content of the waste combusted. Although waste to energy plant are likely to have a growing role in the UK, they are expensive to build. Public perception and planning permission are significant barriers.

Smart Metering
Smart metering refers to utility metering that, because it does not simply record the total number of units used, enables consumers to be more energy efficient. The technology, which is semi-mature, includes display meters, remotely read meters and internet meters. It has been estimated that smart metering could reduce energy consumption in the UK by 5-10%, with significant carbon savings as a result. No barriers are envisaged preventing system manufacture, the main hurdles to deployment being lack of consumer awareness and potential unwillingness to pay extra for smart metering, despite paybacks of 1-2 years.

Wind Onshore & Offshore

The use of turbines to convert the power of the wind into electricity represents a growing market and is a developed technology with significant carbon saving potential in the UK and elsewhere. The key barriers affecting onshore deployment in the UK are nontechnical, i.e. public acceptability and the securing of planning permission for individual schemes. Offshore deployment is currently the subject of development and demonstration work that aims to reduce costs and to prove that the technology can deliver acceptable levels of reliability and availability. Although none of the worlds major wind turbine manufacturers are UK companies, the wind power skills base in this country currently includes both developers and component manufacturers.

Ultra High Efficiency CCGT

Over the coming years, Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) technology is likely to continue to form the basis of most major new power generation projects in the UK. Although the technology is well established and has become progressively more efficient, a number of options could further enhance efficiency and so deliver economic as well as significant environmental benefits. These mainly comprise of incremental improvements for the short term and new technologies, such as switching to more sustainable fuels, for the longer term. The UK is a prominent player in CCGT technology and, in view of the high levels of investment required in this field, the UK industry should be involved in global development initiatives to benefit from the results and opportunities that arise.

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Technology profiles: REVIEW PERIODICALLY

Cleaner Coal Combustion
Reducing carbon emissions from conventional coal combustion can be achieved mainly by improving the thermal efficiency of the combustion process. A range of technologies and equipment, offering economic as well as environmental benefits, have already enabled improvements of this kind to be made. Further significant carbon savings from better thermal efficiency will require large-scale investment in plant development and construction. The UK has a sound knowledge base but a relatively weak industrial/commercial base in this area. Opportunities to carry new processes through to manufacturing may therefore be limited.

HVDC Transmission
High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) transmission, which is mainly associated with the transfer of large amounts of electricity over long distances, is a proven technology developed over a number of decades. Although the application of sub-sea HVDC to harness power produced offshore by wind farms and other renewable energy installations does generally offer advantages over HVAC transmission, as an enabling technology it will not directly contribute to carbon reductions. In the UK, the technology also has a potential application in grid support and development, but other, considerably more economic options are already available. No significant UK industry exists in HVDC technology.

Geothermal
The natural heat within the earth can be harnessed as a carbon saving energy source by the exploitation of aquifers naturally occurring deposits of hot water in deep porous rocks underground. The technology to do this is mature and well understood. However, UK aquifer resources are low in temperature and their location is not well matched with areas of high heat demand. Hot Dry Rock technology the extraction of heat through the injection of water into dry rock formations could represent a further means of capturing geothermal energy but faces many technical barriers and is unlikely to be competitive in the UK in the short to medium term.

Intermediate Energy Vectors

Current supplies of liquid and gas fuels are almost entirely derived from fossil fuel sources. By 2050 a move to a hydrogen economy based on fuel cells is possible, and a number of intermediate steps towards this could be taken. These would involve the more widespread introduction of fuels such as ethanol, methanol and synthetic diesel. However, these options have relatively low carbon saving potential and limited applicability to the UK, being better suited to the utilisation of stranded gas assets around the world. Development would require substantial investment in a field that is largely the domain of multinational oil and gas companies.

High Efficiency Automotive Power Systems

The automotive power market is dominated by internal combustion engines which run on fossil fuels. Limited long-term scope exists to deliver further substantial fuelefficiency improvements from the basic internal combustion engine concept. Moreover, increased vehicle ownership and use means that any improvements that are achieved are unlikely to result in an overall reduction in UK emissions of carbon dioxide. Engine development is also extremely expensive and will therefore remain almost exclusively the province of the major vehicle manufacturers, whose focus will continue to be on meeting a range of regulatory requirements and market performance needs.

Low-Head Hydro
The technology required to harness low-head hydro power for electricity production is highly developed, efficient and well understood, with many schemes and technology suppliers operating in the UK. As a result of the relatively high cost of exploitation and the environmental and regulatory issues associated with hydro development, the UK market is relatively restricted, with opportunities for further cost-effective deployment limited. Such further developments as are feasible in this country are also unlikely to lead to significant growth in the UKs existing skills base.

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Technology profiles: REVIEW PERIODICALLY

Nuclear Fusion
Nuclear fusion combines atoms of light elements at extreme temperatures in a plasma, resulting in a release of energy. The technology has considerable potential to avoid carbon emissions but is at an early stage of development. No demonstration plant has yet been built and so costs and performance are very uncertain, and no commercial deployment is expected before 2050. The construction of experimental and prototype plant that generate electricity from nuclear fusion would involve very large investment.

Solar Thermal Electric

Solar thermal electric systems work by focusing and absorbing solar radiation and using the captured energy to generate electricity via steam turbines. The need for high and reliable levels of direct sunlight means that this technology is unlikely to make any contribution to carbon saving in the UK in the short, medium or long term. Moreover, solar thermal electric has yet to achieve or maintain unassisted commercial deployment anywhere in the world. This slow progress towards the market means that there will only be limited opportunities for the UK industry to benefit from advances elsewhere in the world in the short term.

Tidal Lagoons & Barrages

Tidal energy schemes exploit the changing height of coastal tidal waters to generate electricity. Although the technology is mature and many potential UK schemes have been researched in considerable depth, there are very few examples of the deployment of this technology anywhere in the world and none in this country. The main barrier to deployment is capital cost, together with concerns about the environmental, commercial and other impacts of potential schemes. The resulting question marks against the technologys commercial viability mean that, while it theoretically has considerable carbon saving potential, new development of tidal lagoons and barrages is not expected in the near future.

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We intend to review the Low Carbon Technology Assessment on a regular basis. Your feedback and comments would be most welcome in helping us to identify those areas of greatest carbon reduction potential where our investment could make a material difference. To submit your views please e-mail the Carbon Trust at LCTA@thecarbontrust.co.uk

This brochure has been printed using recycled paper. Published in the UK: December 2002 The Carbon Trust is a company limited by guarantee. Registered in England and Wales number 4190230. Registered at 9th Floor, 3 Clements Inn, London WC2A 2AZ. DISCLAIMER This information is being made available to you as part of the Carbon Trust's general activity of promoting investment in low carbon technology. The Carbon Trust does not give investment advice and you must take your own view on the merits of, and the risks attached to, an investment. You may wish to obtain professional advice. The Carbon Trusts funding is provided by grant from DEFRA (Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs), the Scottish Executive, the National Assembly for Wales and the Northern Ireland Assembly (the "Devolved Administrations"). The undertaking of proposals through the Foundation Programme or the Low Carbon Innovation Programme is contingent upon and subject to the Carbon Trust reaching agreement with DEFRA and the Devolved Administrations about future financing and upon all relevant activities either being approved for EU State Aid purposes by the European Commission or falling within existing notifications or block exemptions. COPYRIGHT AND TRADE MARKS Any trade marks, service marks or logos used in this literature (the "Trade Marks") and any information contained herein are the property of the Carbon Trust. Nothing in this literature shall be construed as granting any licence or right to use or reproduce any of the Trade Marks, copyright or the Carbon Trusts proprietary information in any way without the Carbon Trusts prior written permission. The Carbon Trust enforces infringements of its intellectual property rights to the full extent permitted by law. The Carbon Trust. 2002. All Rights Reserved.