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CAREC Regional Road Project Road Sector Planning and Management System
Final Report
Version 1
August 2010
In association with
General information
Author(s) Project name Document name Date Reference Spernol, Butler, Worthington, Zachara, Joubert, Sims Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010 Final Report_Eng_final changes with RF comments-for issue.doc
Addressee(s)
Sent to: Name J. Shukurov Organisation Republican Road Fund Sent on (date): 25/08/2010
Copy to: Name R. Nadryshin S. Khan / O. Norojono Organisation ADB Tashkent ADB Manila Sent on (date): 25/08/2010 25/08/2010
History of modifications
Version Date Written by Approved and signed by:
Page 2 Version 1
Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ................................................................................... 10 Chapter 1 - Introduction ............................................................................ 11 Chapter 2 - Project Management .............................................................. 12
1. Organisation of the Project.................................................................12
1.1. Staffing ......................................................................................................... 12 1.2. Provisional sums .......................................................................................... 13 1.3. Work Plan Outstanding activities .............................................................. 13
2. Analysis of possible road user charges or tolls ...............................18 3. Road maintenance strategy and proposals for funding plan ...........22 4. Analysis of the possibility for Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) ...24
4.1. Introduction .................................................................................................. 24 4.2. Creation of a new legislative framework for PPPs in Uzbekistan - Initial steps ............................................................................................................. 24 4.3. Creation of a PPP Taskforce ....................................................................... 26
Table of Contents
2.13. Issue 8: A Planning and Database Management Capability for the Road Fund ................................................................................................... 40
Chapter 5 - Introduce computerized road planning & management using HDM-4 .......................................................................... 51
1. Purchase of HDM and Roughometer..................................................51 2. Calibration ...........................................................................................51
2.1. Road User Effects Calibration ...................................................................... 51 2.2. Road Deterioration ....................................................................................... 52 2.3. Roughness ................................................................................................... 53 2.4. HDM-4 configuration .................................................................................... 54
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Table of Contents
2. HDM-training ........................................................................................93
2.1. In house HDM-4 seminar ............................................................................. 93 2.2. HDM-Training course in TRL ....................................................................... 95 2.3. Final database and HDM-4 training ............................................................. 96
Table of Contents
Appendix A Flow chart for introduction of supervision contracts Example TOR for supervision consultants Appendix B Comments from Road Fund on Draft Final Report and Answers ........ 126
Additional Volumes
Appendix A General and Financial matters Appendix A1 Work Plan and Staffing plan Appendix A2 Reports & Working Papers Issued Appendix A3 Financial Working Paper Appendix A4 PPP general practice Appendix A5 - Sample Structure of a PPP Law Appendix A6 Financial Model for testing potential of PPP projects Appendix A7 Study Tour to Europe Appendix B1 Institutional Development Strategy Appendix B2 Road Sector Institutions Issues and Options Appendix C Maintenance Strategy and Funding Plan (including annexes on HDM-Calibration) Appendix D Maintenance management Appendix E Condition Survey Data Appendix F Maintenance treatments Appendix G Traffic Report Appendix H1 RMS Data Base User Manual Appendix H2 RMS Data Base Technical Specifications Appendix I Programme and Project Analysis
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Table of Contents
Table of Contents
Table 34 : Programme of the study tour ................................................................................... 100 Table 35 : Tasks and needs for RMMS / PMS.......................................................................... 108 Table 36 : Implementation of Surveys and Databases ............................................................. 111
Figure 1 : Proportional contributions of revenue sources Figure 2 : Road user taxes in the EU Figure 3 : Proposed Organisation Scheme for the PPP Taskforce Figure 4: Five-stage strategy for restructuring promoted by EBRD Figure 5: Roughness reduction after thick overlays Figure 6 : Annual budget needs to upgrade and maintain the network in optimal condition Figure 7 : Evolution of Road Roughness under the Delay option Figure 8 : Roughness evolution under 70 Mill. USD Annual budget Figure 9 : Roughness evolution under 122.5 Mill. USD Annual budget Figure 10 : Data base structure Figure 11 : Typical Road Database user interface Figure 12 : Crack Progression - Average Figures Figure 13 : Crack Progression - Average + 1 Standard Deviation Figure 14 : Crack Progression - Average + 1 Standard Deviation Figure 15 : Distribution of the roughness values over the whole pilot sections Figure 16 : Distribution of the deflection values over the asphalt concrete pilot sections
19 21 27 30 53 56 58 60 61 67 68 83 84 84 86 87
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Acronyms
AADT BI CP DB DBST DMI FWD GDP GOST GPS HDM IRI IT MTR PIU PMS RF RMS RMR RPU TOR VOC
Average Annual Daily Traffic Bump Integrator Capital Repair Data base Double Surface Treatment Distance Measuring Device Falling Weight Deflectometer Gross domestic Product State Standards of the Former Soviet Union Global Positioning System Highway Development & Management International Roughness Index Information Technology Mid term repair Project Implementation Unit Pavement Management System Republican Road Fund Road Management System Routine Maintenance and Repair Road Planning Unit Terms of Reference Vehicle Operating Costs
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Executive Summary
The Government of Uzbekistan has received a loan (2403-UZB) from the Asian Development Bank for the development of the Regional Road Network, the provision of technical assistance, training and studies in view of continuing the improvement of the road network and its management. The government decided to allocate part of the loan to the present consulting services for the Road Sector Planning and Management System. This Report is the Final Report of the assignment, being submitted 1 month after completion of the consultancy services, taking into account the beneficiarys comments and detailing the main findings. According to the terms of reference, the consultants investigated a large series of questions and issues, and this can only be seen as a starting point for the development of Road Asset Management in Uzbekistan. Regarding the road financing, the Consultants reviewed the financial system of the Road Fund and the current road sector revenues. The Road Fund is operating according to international best practice, whilst reform of the revenues seemed desirable, to introduce possible road user charges it is not required. The possibilities of introducing PPP in Uzbekistan will be limited in the close future, as it would need considerable adaptation of the present legislation. Also, the simplified financial model attempted to show that only a limited number of schemes would be eligible for private investments. The maintenance strategy and funding plan showed that the revenues of the Road Fund should be sufficient to allow maintenance of all roads to a good quality level, if the resources are not used for development of the network. The financial scenarios modelled include a sufficient routine maintenance funding, and assumed that periodic maintenance will be funded, at least to the lowest budget scenario, whilst the 5year development plan is being implemented. On the institutional aspect, the main finding was that a Road Agency or Authority is urgently needed in Uzbekistan, to rationalise institutions and clarify responsibilities. The best candidate for a future Agency was found in Uzavtoyul, whilst the Road Fund should concentrate on its core functions and take a larger role at the policy level. To be a better road network manager, Uzavtoyul (or its successor as the Uzbekistan Road Authority) should be strengthened, but also dispose of its contracting activities, and rationalise its regional managers (to maintain 13 oblast) and local districts (reduce the rayon level enterprises to about 50-60). The introduction of competition in the road sector is already on its way, and little needs to be done to pace its way. The introduction of a planning unit is a more controversial subject, as it is difficult to find its place without the broad picture of reform. There is an absence of a structured road asset management system, something that would be beneficial regardless of any movements in the institutional framework. The Consultants completed the Strategy by highlighting the 5 major issues that should be addressed, even if a large sector reform is not introduced. The Consultants however implemented HDM-4, and trained staff from the road fund and other road institutions, developed a pilot data base and collected data on a pilot network of over 4000 km to demonstrate the use of the database and HDM-4 analysis. Currently, there is no champion for this work and data that has been deposited at the Road Fund, but also with the Research laboratory of Uzavtoyul. The training provided during the assignment and in particular the study tours were an important element to demonstrate road asset management in western countries, along with modern technologies and examples of institutional setup.
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010 Page 10 Version 1
Chapter 1 - Introduction
The Government of Uzbekistan has received a loan (2403-UZB) from the Asian Development Bank for the development of the Regional Road Network, the provision of technical assistance, training and studies in view of continuing the improvement of the road network and its management. The government decided to allocate part of the loan to the present consulting services for the Road Sector Planning and Management System. The Consultant EGIS-BCEOM International (France) has been awarded the contract in May 2009 and started the technical assistance on 28th September 2009 for a total duration of 10 month. This Report is the Final Report, being submitted 1 month after completion of the consultancy services and detailing the main findings. Section 2 of this report summarises the project organisation, the work progress and the main contract management issues. The following sections describe the progress in completing the tasks and the deliverables produced by the project, by the various large subjects to be covered by the TOR. The topics have been broken down to follow the objectives of the TOR and the consultants methodology into the following aspects: Financial assessment and issues Institutional Development Implementation of HDM Implementation of Data base Pilot trials Training Future dissemination and countrywide implementation
The last section contains a summary of the conclusions and recommendations based on the final outcomes of the project during the assignment.
The report is completed by a series of technical appendices, issued as separate volumes and detailing more specifically the consultants work and results.
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1.
1.1.
Position
Team Leader / Transport Planning Specialist Specialist on Transport Economics Road Maintenance Specialist Road Institutions Specialist Finance Specialist Database Specialist Total
At the time of writing of the report the following resources had been implemented: Table 2 : The Consultant Team Progress at submittal of Final Report International Position
Team Leader / Transport Planning Specialist (A. SPERNOL) Specialist on Transport Economics (John WORTHINGTON) Road Maintenance Specialist (Marian ZACHARA) Road Institutions Specialist (Robert BUTLER) HDM-4 Specialist (Pierre JOUBERT) Financial Specialist (Mike SIMS) Total
National Total Input (Month) 9.00 4.03 5.00 4.57 4.00 2.33
28.96
Position
Team Leader / Transport Planning Specialist (Kashan NISHANBAEV) Specialist on Transport Economics (Shukhrat MIRKHAMIDOV) Road Maintenance Specialist (Amongaldi RAKHIMOV) Road Institutions Specialist (Sobir RAKHMANOV) Database Specialist (Ilkhom ISMATOV) Finance Specialist (Tokhirjon OTAKHONOV) Total
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The implementation of the resources was generally according to schedule, with the exception of the financial specialists (both international and local). The main reasons were that on one side, the Road Funds financial systems are well in place and mostly up to international best practice, and on the other hand that due to limited data availability, the scope of analysis was more limited than initially planned.
1.2.
Provisional sums
The contract included for 6 items of reimbursable sums: Purchase of HDM-4 licenses: the licenses were purchase in 2009 and handed over to the client. Purchase of Roughometer: the equipment was purchased, customs cleared and used for the pilot trials. The equipment, currently under warranty is awaiting shipment to Australia for revision (see below). HDM Training in UK: the training was organised, but only 2 members of staff attended it to date due to Visa refusal for 2 participants (see below). Study tour: the study tour was organised in May/June and 8 participants of the Road Fund travelled to France and Germany. Pilot trials: The pilot trials were completed in April, and almost all resources allocated were used. Procurement of equipment: after discussions with the PIU and Road Fund, the decision was taken not to use the provisional sum for purchase of equipment.
1.3.
2.
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2.1.
HDM Training in UK
The planned HDM-4 training course in UK was carried out from 17 to 21 of April, but only 2 of the 4 delegated participants could obtain UK Visa. There was no obvious reason for the 2 other participants not to obtain this visa, but the refusal stopped them from attending the training course. Accordingly, the consultants cancelled the bookings; however the fee was already paid for the whole group to TRL. The decision was that the 2 participants would re-apply for a visa and attend the next training course to be organised by TRL. During July, the contract management issue linked to the planned HDM-4 training course in UK was decided. Whilst the 2 participants that had no entry clearance to UK have now obtained a visa to attend the next training course to be organised by TRL, it appeared that to be reimbursed of this training, the contract should be prolonged, which the PIU was not willing to accept. However, only half of the tuition fee was accepted for payment by PIU and ADB. Also, TRL informed the Consultants that the planned training session for autumn had been cancelled and was postponed till 2011. Therefore the trip to UK was finally cancelled.
th rst
2.2.
Roughometer repair
The Roughometer was installed on a vehicle appointed by the consultants (Daewoo Nexia) and the accelerometer fixed to the right rear axle. During the survey, unfortunately, some data was lost on the last sections, as the Roughometer accelerometer did not give correct responses. This could be due to the bad road conditions and accelerated wear of the equipment, or connectivity issues. Following the defects, the Consultants contacted ARRB regarding the origin of defect, and ARRB suggested sending the equipment for repair, as part of the warranty. However, being Road Fund property, the Road Fund needed to sign the appropriate documents for a temporary export of the defect parts. This procedure is required to allow future re-import without additional delays in customs clearance. At the time of writing of the final report, the Roughometer had been successfully repairs by ARRB and has been shipped back to Tashkent, where it was (again) waiting for customs clearance.
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1.
1.1.
1.2.
Inevitably, there are ambiguities concerning a normative approach to such a valuation. Several unpredictable variables would impact on the values held in balance, including climate variations from year to year and decade to decade, traffic intensity and composition, the level and effectiveness of routine maintenance, inflation adjustments relative to the carrying cost and the cost of the particular resources consumed by each intervention on the road. There is no recognized international methodology for such a valuation. For these reasons, the value of the road is more usefully defined by technical examination and expertise, and in the format required for economic optimum allocation of funds for maintenance and improvement. One may then ask to what ends the valuation will be applied? Internationally, studies on which road maintenance and construction investment decisions are made sometimes project a useful asset life of, for example, 40 years for a road and 80 years for major bridges, excluding real estate costs. A residual value is then derived for the end of the study period on a straight-line depreciation basis (for example, for a study period covering 20 years of operation, 50% of a road construction cost may be assumed to remain and 75% of that of the major bridges). However, this residual value is approximate, is not normative, and is not always utilised1. A further utilisation of asset value can apply when custodianship of a road passes into a concession or falls under a maintenance performance contract and is later returned to the state. However, the technical description of the asset when it changes custodianship (for example, superficial and structural characteristics, determined by tests) would decide the financial value, or the addition or the subtraction from such, not vice-versa. Internationally, a key valuation for road asset management decisions by section or by network is their Net Present Value (NPV), which is a discounted valuation including future maintenance and sometimes user operating costs. The HDM4 methodology which can include NPV assessment is to be explained as part of the present technical assistance. It can be tuned to target and to reveal actions necessary to achieve a fairly constant road asset value2, in utility terms, indefinitely. For accounting purposes, the present balance sheet valuation used in Uzbekistan may have a retrospective usefulness, in archiving the expenditure records for financial control purposes. In terms of dynamic road asset management, a forward looking methodology using technical inspection and analysis is preferable. The results could if wished be translated into accounting valuation scenarios or alternative action plans, illustrating the value lost over time on a road section or network under different management options. Uzavtoyul3 is autonomously financed and not supported directly by the state budget, although a significant part of its revenues are provided by the RF. Holding the road infrastructure on the balance sheet of Uzavtoyul is incongruous with its autonomous budgetary status, and with its diversity of activities. The latter include a wide range of road infrastructure management functions on behalf of the state, and the ownership and direction of multiple works contracting subsidiaries. As it is financially autonomous, its activities must also be commercial. Many of Uzavtoyuls functions could be, and elsewhere in the world are, performed by the private sector on a commercial basis.
After discounting at 12% over a period of 20 years the present value of an asset is only about 1/10 of the future value. Hence whatever predictive powers are used to derive them, and their consequent numerical precision, residual values are not heavily weighted in an investment project or budgeting program analysis, relative to the comparatively easily calculated and immediately payable construction cost. Or for example an improved and stabilised situation....The menu of targets to choose from is wide.
2 3
Uzavtoyul is a State Joint Stock Company. 100% of its shares are held by the state, and are not subject to sale or to alienation to third parties in whole or in part.
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The preservation of a very long term asset such as a national road network is a public service duty. Commercial motivations are shorter term, and lead to different decisions concerning asset preservation. A commercial contracting organisation is concerned with higher revenues, for example through a more intense annual renewal rate of the asset and new construction. Public interest encompasses the preservation of the asset at minimum annual cost, which is a different objective. To have a clearer division of objectives, public and commercial, it would appear preferable for the road infrastructure assets to be held on the balance sheet of a state budget entity with a purely public service objective, and absence of commercial motivations. However, the fact that the road balance sheet is held and maintained by Uzavtoyul does not seem to 4 signify ownership of the asset. According to the law On Roads, ownership of public roads is vested in the state, though by which branch of the state remains unspecified. The incongruity of Uzavtoyul holding the roads balance sheet could be solved in several ways. One would be to split that particular Uzavtoyul role from its contracting companies, or vice-versa. This issue along with the broader institutional questions for national road sector management are dealt with in Section 3 et seq. of this report.
1.3.
See Eligibility of State Owned Enterprises for Participation in ADB-Financed Projects, TA-7053, 2008
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celebrations etc). Surplus funds are deposited in interest bearing accounts. They may be in local or foreign currencies. End-of-year surplus amounts are carried forward to the following year. In the history of the Road Fund it has always finished the year with a surplus. In any month, there has never been a deficit of funds to cover short term commitments. The RF recognises that such a situation could occur. In that event, it would require support from the state budget. There is no mechanism in place nor planned for short term bank credit.
1.4.
Physical controls
The RF has no permanent establishment outside of its head office. Data from work sites is furnished mostly by its field staff, the contracted professional service providers, and other entities that may be involved. At the completion of contracts control of physical outputs is carried out firstly by a technical works committee, and finally by a state committee.
2.
th
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Procurement organisations, supply and sales agencies, enterprises and organizations providing intermediary services under commission (instructions) basis, Republican specialized wholesale organisations and their territorial (regional, interregional and inter-district) depots, being part of Association of wholesale enterprises (1%) Enterprises of other industries (1,5%) Road transport enterprises (2,5%) Other sectors Fees on purchase and(or) temporary import to the territory of the Republic of Uzbekistan to be paid owners (users) of these vehicles upon registration thereof with the Ministry of Interior authorities of the Republic of Uzbekistan (6, 20%)
38.48
13.68
10.12
8.00
8.00
15.73
24.77
42.13
28.00
78.00
Fees for entering the territory of the Republic of Uzbekistan by vehicle from foreign and adjacent countries (currency earnings in UZS equivalent) Other revenues Financial borrowing (ADB) Carry forward balance TOTAL: Source: Road Fund
14.18
19.43
16.15
11.70
12.00
3.53
8.99
13.77
1.50
1.50 13.80
79.30 349.50
22.87 378.04
82.88 490.56
35.71 556.91
50.79 792.50
The current proportion of total revenues contributed by each separate source is shown in the following chart: Figure 1 : Proportional contributions of revenue sources
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It may be remarked that revenues from Other enterprises, or the economy at large, contribute the major part of RF revenues (74%). Road transport related activities contribute only 12% of total revenues6. Two pertinent conclusions may be drawn: Under the present RF revenue collection system, the future evolution of RF revenues will be most closely linked to the economy at large. User-paid sources are relatively small and RF revenues will not directly reflect road usage, consequent wear and tear, and the resultant maintenance costs Experience elsewhere in the world (for example Europe) has found that road transport tends to grow rather faster than does economic activity in general. These consequences and future projections of Road fund revenues are developed further in the Appendix C, Chapter 5 Financial forecasts and estimated expenditures.
The consultant has requested details of vehicle registrations and of fuel consumption, pricing and taxation. If this information had been available then it would be have been possible to indicate the scale of changes to the present rates of taxation and their allocation by vehicle that would be needed to implement user pays principles.
For reference purposes, some international benchmark rates of taxation of road vehicle fuels are provided in the following table. Table 4 : Benchmark International Fuel Excise Duties
Country Russia Germany Holland UK US (average Federal + state) Macedonia EU minimums periodically amended) Source: Eurostats (2003/96/EC Gasoline (US$/litre) 0.07 to 0.09 (low/high octane) 0.94 0.99 0.82 0.12 0.56 0.52 Diesel (US$/litre) 0.47 0.68 0.99 0.82 0.13 0.37 0.43
Value Added Tax (VAT) is also applied in most of these countries but is not included in the amounts. Typically this would impose an additional 15% to 20% on to the total price of the refined fuel plus excise tax. VAT is a broad based tax on most goods and services consumed. As such, it is generally considered inappropriate in terms of fiscal policy to allocate a part or all of VAT to a specific sector such as a Road Fund. Excise taxes are a different matter and are frequently dedicated in part for expenditures in the road sector. In many parts of the world, by way of funding collected by governments from road users in the form of road user taxes (principally fuel taxes), governments are receiving from the road sector much more than they are giving back. Typically, they siphon off about 2/3 of road user taxes to the general budget and re-
Road transport enterprises 1%, Registration fees, 10%, Transit/entry fees 10%
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invest only a 1/3 in better roads. However, the scale and ease in mobilizing fuel taxes, current environmental concerns and green-house gas limitations and political pressures on the use of public funds make any reduction in road fuel taxation very unlikely. Vehicle registration fees vary quite widely throughout the world. Some jurisdictions impose annual user charges in addition to annual registration fees7. Probably, and those the best researched and that have found a consensus among its 27 member countries, are those of the EU. Typically, fuel tax revenue is the most significant form of road user charge, amounting to about 87 percent of the total road user charges 8 for the countries surveyed . On average, annual fuel tax collection is about 142 percent of a country's total expenditures on roads. The balance of taxation, fuel levy and other sources is illustrated in the following figure. Figure 2 : Road user taxes in the EU
Source :
Notably, the lowest road user taxation levels of the EU are those of the three former Soviet Union countries that are now EU members.
Such a user charge is sometimes collected as payment for a vignette, which may be annual or for a period as little as a day. They may apply to part (e.g. motorways) or all of a national road network (see Appendix A3 for further details...
Road User Charges: Current Practice and Perspectives in Central and Eastern Europe, WB, Queiroz November 2008
9
Comparison of EU truck taxation - (DIW Berlin, Germany) COST project, 2006. The example is of a light commercial vehicle (<3 tonnes).
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3.
Bus Vehicle type Vehicle Fleet (thousand) Utilisation (km/year) Fuel Consumption (litres/100km) Fuel Charge (UZS/litre) Expected Revenue (UZS million) Car/utility Public 1 268 10 000 8 149 151 199 48 60 000 30 142 122 455 petrol Charge (UZS/litre) 150 Own use 119 25 000 20 148 87 788 diesel 140 Total 167 162 30 000 25 142 172 203 533 645 1 597 Truck All Vehicles
Assuming fuel charges and fuel consumed in the following ratios: Petrol Car Public bus Own-use bus Truck 90 20 80 20 Diesel 10 80 20 80 Average charge (UZS) 149 142 148 142
Implicit national fuel consumption, road vehicles, in m3: Petrol Diesel Source: Prepared by Consultant 913 283 101 476 172 472 689 890 474 527 118 632 242 539 970 158 1 802 822 1 880 155
ADB Uzbekistan Road Rehabilitation Project, July 2007. An adjustment to the number of trucks reported as registered at that time has also been made, as it appeared improbably high.
11 12
10
Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth Worldwide, Dargay, Gately, and Sommer, January 2007
On Measures For Development Of A Network Of Gas-Filling Compressor And Autogas Stations And Phased Transfer Of Vehicles To The Liquid And Compressed Gas Fuel
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Under the displayed simulation, which the consultant emphasises is no more than a hypothesis, a credit to the road fund of 150 UZS per litre of petrol and 140 UZS per litre of diesel sold at public retail stations would yield approximately 67% of the current road fund receipts (2010 forecast) from its divers sources of income. A number of remarks could be made concerning the realism of the assumptions made, but the tax impact could be easily recalculated using the actual petrol and diesel sales volumes to road going vehicles, and the excise collected, which would normally be known to the Ministry of Finance. The correlation between these and GDP growth should also be apparent, allowing easy prognosis of future revenues. The following table illustrates a possible RF revenue source scenario for Uzbekistan in 2010:
Annual fee per vehicle Total vehicle fleet (all categories) Average annual fee (UZS per vehicle/year) Average annual fee (US$/vehicle/year) Source: Prepared by Consultant 1 596 682 137 303 87
The simulation assumes that 5% of annual receipts could be collected from transit fees, and tolls, possibly under PPP type arrangements (see following section). An annual average vehicle charge (vignette or annual road tax) of approximately 137 000 UZS would cover the remaining 28% of RF receipts. Under such a user pays funding strategy, all present Road Fund compulsory contributions (turnover and profit taxes) and new vehicle registrations fees could be rescinded or diverted to general government revenues. The option selected could depend, for example, on whether the fuel credit to the Road Fund was made from the existing fuel excise tax, or by an addition to the present excise tax. In either case, with appropriate adjustment the overall burden on the taxpayer and government tax receipts could remain the same as at present. However, the preceding outline funding plan describes a hypothetical substitution of tax contributions to the Road Fund that maintains revenues as at present, simplifies the system somewhat, and places road users in a user pays situation.
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4.
4.1.
4.2.
4.2.1. Law of the Republic of Uzbekistan On Concessions (No. 110-I dated 30.08.1995 and
revised 31.12.2008).
This law requires serious revision if PPPs are to be implemented in the road sector in Uzbekistan. According to the UNDP Analytical Report No. 2007/06 Private-public partnership in Uzbekistan: problems, opportunities, and ways of introduction, from the moment of the acceptance of this law in 1995, not a single complete concession agreement has been concluded. In effect, the practice of concession implementation regime in the country is based on quasi-concessions, granted on a municipal level in the sphere of public transport. International experts give a low grade to processes of concessionaires selection, performance and termination of similar agreements.
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Amongst other items of the law, at a minimum, the following Articles will have to be updated, considering: 1) Adding the word roads to Article 4 Objects (Subject) of Concession. 2) Adding the word national investors to Article 4 to increase the number of PPP investors. 3) Increasing the allowed duration of concession agreements (contracts) from the current 15 years (Article 17) up to 50 years.
It is highly recommended to take into consideration the legislative and practical experience of foreign countries on concessions during the process of updating this law. The current law on concessions of the Russian Federation can be used as an example for this purpose. The following table presents some differences between the Law of Uzbekistan On Concessions and the Law of Russian Federation On Concession Agreements (adopted in 2005 and amended through 2009) Table 7 : Analysis of the Uzbek and Russian Law on concessions No.
1
Difference
Number of Pages (paper size A4) Number of Articles Roads as a concession National investor
Uzbek Law
8
Russian Law
47
2 3 4
26 Not included (Article 4) Not included (Article 4 mentions only foreign investors) Concession Limited to 15 years (Article 17)
38 Included (Article 4) Included (Article 5 1.2) Not limited (Article 6), parties to the concession agreement can set a duration period depending on the profitability and other matters related to the concession. Addressed (in Article 7)
Duration of Agreement
Regulated tariffs in case of concession products and/or services Procedures for transferring and using land, water facilities and subsurface. Guarantee of rights legitimate interests concessionaires and of
Not addressed.
Not addressed
Addressed in detail in the whole Chapter 2 which consists of three Articles Addressed in detail in the whole Chapter 3 which consists of seventeen Articles
Addressed, but in a general manner (Articles 13 and 14). This section of the law needs serious updating.
Given below are some examples of concession agreements which will be regulated under the Russian concession law.
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In July 2009 Federal Road Agency (Rosavtodor) of the Russian Federation and North-Western Concession Company (Russia) signed a concession agreement on financing, construction and operation of a paid (toll) highway Moscow Saint Petersburg on the road section 15-58 km. Construction starts in 2010 and will last 36 months. The total cost of the project is about 60 billion Russian Rubles, out of which Russian Governments share will be 23 billion Rubles and the rest will be financed by the concessionaire. (See more on the Internet at http://mfd.ru/News/View/?ID=1494991) A concession agreement with duration of 30 years for financing, construction and operation on a paid (toll) bases the New Exit to Moscow Circular Highway off the federal highway M-1 Belarus Moscow Minsk was concluded between Open Joint Stock Company Glavnaya Doroga and Russian Federation on 17 July 2009. Total cost of the project is about 25.7 billion Rubles. The construction is expected to start in September 2010 and will be completed in two years. Consortium Open Joint Stock Company Glavnaya Doroga is formed by Closed Joint Stock Company "LIDER", a construction company Alpine Bau (Austria) and Limited Liability Company "Stroygazconsulting" (Russia). (See more on the Internet http://autorambler.ru/journal/road/27.04.2010/560959183/)
4.2.2. The law of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Motor Roads (dated: 02.10.2007 No. ZRU-
117).
Article 2 of this law mention those terms/relations regarding the use of paid roads in Uzbekistan will be governed by other legislative acts. So new law on PPP should address paid road roads as one of the possible PPP investment (business) activities.
4.2.3. The taxation and currency exchange laws Tax Code of Uzbekistan (effective since January 1, 2008 and updated through 2009): A separate section or article in the Code should deal with PPPs. This should address taxation matters (taxation rate, basket, exemptions, etc) specifically related to PPP business forms such as concessions, buildoperate contracts and service contracts. Currency exchange laws. It is recommended that in the new law on PPPs a separate article should address currency exchange matters related to PPP businesses. Specifically, this article should guarantee that (i) a foreign PPP investor has a right to convert its net earnings (after applicable taxes) from the national currency to applicable hard currencies at the prevailing exchange rates of the overthe-counter currency markets and/or commercial banks in Uzbekistan, and transfer these earnings to its banks accounts in foreign countries; (ii) a national PPP investor has a right to freely buy hard currencies from the over-the-counter currency markets and/or commercial banks in Uzbekistan for its PPP activities.
4.3.
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* Taskforce Council
Chairman (full-time)
Professional staff
1. Lawyer-national (full-time, one staff) 2. Lawyer international (hired on a contractual basis, one staff) 3. Expert on Economy and Finance (hired on a contractual basis, one staff)
Administrative staff
1. Administrative assistant (fulltime, one staff) 2. Secretary (full-time, one staff)
* It is recommended that Taskforce Council should be composed of key senior government officials who will be meeting on a quarterly basis or upon the proposal of the Chairman.
4.3.2. Activities for the Taskforce It is proposed that drafting and processing a new law on PPP should be the main activity of the Taskforce. As a good practical model, the content of the current Kosovo Law on PPPs and concessions can be used during the development of the new Uzbek law on PPPs. The content of the Kosovo law, which was developed with the assistance of European Commission, and based on many years of experience in Europe, is very comprehensive, without being burdened with unnecessary details. The structure of this law is given in Appendix A5 of the present report. The main activities of the Taskforce, with a proposed time schedule, are given in the following table (Table 6). This table has been prepared to the best knowledge and experience of Consultant. The exact scope, order of implementation and duration of the activities will be decided by the Government of Uzbekistan.
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Table 8 : Major Activities and Time frame for the PPP Taskforce
Key ministries and other government agencies of Uzbekistan involved in the process Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Finance, State Committee on Demonopolization and Support of Competition, Ministry of Justice, Cabinet of Ministries, and Parliament SJSC Uzavtoyul, Road Fund, Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Justice, Cabinet of Ministries, and Parliament Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Finance, SJSC Uzavtoyul, Road Fund, Ministry of Internal Affairs, Ministry of Justice, Cabinet of Ministries Road Fund, SJSC Uzavtoyul, Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Justice, Cabinet of Ministries Tax Committee, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Justice, Cabinet of Ministries, and Parliament
Activity
Time allotted
two years
Changes to the Law on Motor Roads with special attention to Article 2 and adding (to this law) a separate article on road charging instruments (taxes on vehicle fuel, tolls and other instruments which may be considered by the Government) Preparation and processing of a draft Presidential Resolution to enable and to enforce road charging instruments in Uzbekistan (after the Law on Concessions and Law on Motor Roads are revised / changed). Changes to the current Regulations of the Road Fund and current Charter of SJSC Uzavtoyul based on the updated Law on Concessions and Law on Motor Roads Updating Tax Code of Uzbekistan. It is recommended to add a separate section/article to the Code. This section/article should address taxation matters (taxation rate, basket, exemptions and i.e.) specifically related to PPP business forms such as concessions, build-operate contracts and service contracts. (This activity is to be done by the time a new Uzbek Law on PPPs becomes effective.) Updating the current Uzbek Law on Natural Monopolies. Since many complex infrastructures (airports, ports, i.e.) are natural monopolies, which means that they are face no, or very limited, competition, introduction of a new Uzbek Law on PPPs will have impact in this field. (This activity is to be done by the time a new Uzbek Law on PPPs becomes effective.) Drafting and processing a new Uzbek law on PPPs
one year
Six months
six months
one year
State Committee on Demonopolization and Support of Competition, Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Justice, Cabinet of Ministries, and Parliament
one year
Ministry of Economy, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Justice, Cabinet of Ministries, and Parliament
three years
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1.
Introduction
This chapter summarised the work and the findings of the Consultants regarding the institutional parts of the assignment. The TOR requires the consultants to deliver 4 tasks dealing with institutional arrangements: Analysis of the need for a Road Agency Investigation of the possibilities for introduction of competition into the maintenance market Implementation of a planning unit Proposals for an Institutional Development Strategy The first part of the report presents the most important issues for the road sector in Uzbekistan, along with possible options for reform. This material was mostly presented in the Consultants Interim report issued in January 2010, with the aim to get directions or discussions with senior stakeholders of the road sector. This documentation is presented in its final form as Appendix B2 to the present report. Sometime after issue of the interim report, it became apparent that no deep consultation with road sector decision makers (whoever they are) would take place during the present assignment, thus the consultants decided to pursue the preparation of the development strategy selecting by themselves the options judged to be the most appropriate for Uzbekistan, and having the best chances of providing the most suitable arrangement for a successful road network development and management. The second part of this chapter present thus a summary of the Consultants proposals. The details can be found in the proposed development strategy, Appendix B1 to the report.
2.
2.1.
Whilst we appreciate that the transport sector has evolved through a series of presidential and cabinet resolutions, we have nevertheless taken a more international approach to see what institutional structures and their interaction would be best for Uzbekistan. We appreciate that this may mean that our proposals would prompt both amendments to existing resolutions and possibly completely new ones. Institutional development in Uzbekistan cannot be undertaken without a view on international practice. An element applied to all transport sub-sectors is the introduction of Business Models to ensure that Government policies in the transport sector are as efficient as any private sector business making the most economical use of available public sector budgets. We then enter into three phases of institutional modelling, a pattern for evolution: A To find as many synergies and similarities as possible between what is existing, and what could be considered as desirable in the more classical arrangements. B To give different Options for different levels of evolutionary change to incrementally develop from the first level of synergy to an optimal Integrated Business Management Framework for the Road Sector. C Through their choice of Options the Client will then be able to decide at which point in the evolutionary ladder they wish to initially move to and to fix their own time frame to achieve that level. This is clearly illustrated in the EBRD evolutionary matrix for transition:
Owner
Owner
Owner
Owner
Owner
Public sector
Govt-owned company
Administrator
Administrator
Administrator
Administrator
Administrator
Public sector
Manager
Manager
Manager
Manager
Manager
Routine works
Routine works
Routine works
Routine works
Routine works
Private sector
Periodic works Periodic works Periodic works Periodic works Periodic works
New works
New works
New works
New works
New works
4+
Transition level
Figure 4: Five-stage strategy for restructuring promoted by EBRD Source: Robinson, R and B Thagesen (eds), 2004. Road engineering for development, London: Spon Press.
Stage 1 the roads organization is part of a monolithic Ministry of Public Works; thus the functions of owner, administrator, manager and contractor (for all works) are all combined in one organization Stage 2 the part of the organization responsible for the construction of new works is separated out as a government-owned (para-statal) company
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the road administration (with the functions of administrator, manager and contractor for routine and periodic maintenance works) is separated from the Ministry (the owner) Stage 3 the government-owned new works construction company is privatized, when it has developed sufficient market skills and when a competitive market has developed the periodic works part of the contractor function is separated from the road administration as a government-owned company the routine maintenance works organization is separated functionally from the remainder of the road administration, creating a clear client-supplier split Stage 4 the government-owned periodic maintenance company is privatized, when it has developed sufficient market skills and when a competitive market has developed the routine works part of the contractor function is separated from the road administration as a government-owned company Stage 4+ the government-owned routine maintenance company is privatized, when it has developed sufficient market skills and when a competitive market has developed the manager functions in the road administration are privatized the administrator functions are set up as a government-owned company
The figure shows how functional roles are gradually being moved into the private sector. Each repositioning is a three-stage process: first there is functional-separation within the main organizational structure; then the supplier functions are getting corporate as joint stock companies. These are firstly companies in which the government owns all shares. Few Western Counties, (As example some Australian state with large networks and low density of population) have stayed in Stage 3 of the evolution, whilst most states stayed for long years in Stage 4. Today, the situation in Europe is spread between stage 4 and 4+, both situations coexisting, depending on the density of the network, availability and skill of the local contractor and the government policy.
2.2.
The Generally Accepted Phasing of Reforms in the Road Sector for Modernisation Programmes- privatisation of the client and producer functions and organisations
The evolutionary phases in commercialising the road sector are usually given as: (I) the establishment of traditional construction and maintenance organisations This is the system now needing reform; it is ceasing to be effective in the modern way of managing road networks. The traditional way is generally not the most effective way of using available finances.
(II) Separation of client and producer functions This is in the proposal of the Consultant to set up a Road Agency. The Road Agency would be the Client. Programming..This could be effective within the coming few months (less then 1 year) if the Consultants recommendations to transform the old existing relevant Uzavtoyul organisations into a streamlined Road Asset Management organisation were put into place.
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(III) Separation of client and producer organisations In the proposal of the Consultant to set up a Road Agency who undertakes all the roles and responsibilities of a Road Asset Manager and acts solely as the Client, with no direct production responsibilities - out sourcing all service provision to the emerging private sector. ProgrammingThis could be in the short term future (1-2 years): This step could be phased over the next two years or earlier if political will supported it. [It requires a Change Management programme to be put in place, in a way that it applies due sensitivity to questions of re-positioning existing Government employees into a different sector. This could be carried out through a Change Management Programme that would be based on experience gained in other countries]. (IV) Corporisation or privatisation of the producer organisation For the Mid Term Future (3-5 years) depending how fast and effective is the changes brought about in (III) (V) Corporisation of the (client) road administration For Uzbekistan this phase has to be considered a long term programme, if this stage 5 is part of the government programme for reform: requiring a seed change in the way Government views Private Sector powers and responsibilities.
The entry point and change management process towards commercialisation of the road sector in any country needs to be an evolutionary process with stated objectives, outputs, and performance targets. These are best presented in a completely transparent programme of repositioning of all the existing players into a business management framework.
2.3.
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2.3.2. Functions of RAMS The term asset management is used differently by different practitioners. It is not, as is often mistakenly assumed a new term for maintenance management or maintenance management systems. Equally it does not have the same meaning as pavement management systems. Either or both of these specific sciences are only a part of an Asset Management System and are some of the tools available to be able to effectively run the whole system. Again HDM 4 is just one tool available to the asset manager. In the United Kingdom the British Standards Institute has produced a broad based definition of infrastructure management which defines asset management as: Systematic and coordinated activities and practices through which an organisational strategic plan, optimally manages its physical assets, and their associated performance, risks and expenditures over their life-cycle for the purposes of achieving its organisational strategic plan It is a way of doing business to provide road products and services.
2.4.
13 14
Art. 178 and 179 of the Civil Code on the right of operative management of state assets ADB TA-7053 Uzavtoyul Eligibility Report
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2.5.
Issue 1:
It appears that the country needs to adopt road management policies and strategies that emphasize the value of the nations road and bridge assets, and define very clearly how to best conserve these assets, and then to embed these policies and resulting strategies into a recognizable asset management system or framework that is politically supported, and ultimately becomes the standard operating system.. This is especially the case where a dedicated road agency or authority is not in existence.
2.5.1. OPTIONS a Maintain the current practice of reducing maintenance interventions into a continuous series of repair projects that are passed all the way up to Cabinet level for agreement on an annual basis, without the necessary emphasis on using economic modelling tools to produce the optimal programmes. b c
Option a.
Adopt a modern Road Asset Management System for the national road network Adopt a modern Road Asset Management System as national standard approach for all roads
Advantages Keep organisational structures as they are. Existing system works; there is no need to change it. Disadvantages Current maintenance management of the network is wasteful. Preventive Maintenance planning and implementation is difficult. Does not address cyclic routine and minor periodic maintenance needs Requires full acceptance by the Min of Fin and Road Board Introduces transparency and public knowledge of the business Reduces the opportunity for non-prioritized interference. RF will have to consider a new separate Client (Agency) beneath it. Requires full acceptance at Government highest level. Requires streamlining of national and local government organizations as the private sector would undertake both management and operational assignments on behalf of client.
b.
c.
Optimizes use of resources for national roads Outsources some services. Private sector should drive forward development of technologies. Ensures national network maintenance is prioritized properly. Road Agency function is more efficient as a client and can concentrate on the improvement of standards A step by step implementation is possible Same as above but now applies to all resources available for the road sector. National and State road networks are utilizing the same criteria, documents, and standard approach.
2.6.
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The current arrangement in Uzbekistan is not a conventional business management model but also could be said to be a very modern arrangement with the functions of a conventional Ministry of Transport and Road Agency being dissipated between the existing organisations and thereby reducing the public sector. Although the Road Fund is empowered to act as a legal entity it appears to be still acting as a department of the Ministry of Finance but with a role to act as the road Client or customer. Most Road Funds being completely autonomous and separated from the road authority or road agency and Ministry of Finance. Countries with developed economies have liberalized government business and streamlined government institutions and reduced government interference in the development and management of infrastructure. For the road sector in Uzbekistan to achieve this generally observed international model it will not necessarily require the establishment of the two levels of institutional organisation, or even either of them BUT it requires that at least the responsibilities and functions of an appropriate Ministry and appropriate Road Agency are identified as a distinct role or roles and then to undergo their logical distribution to the entity (or entities), but without any overlapping or ambiguity.
2.7.
2.7.1. OPTIONS a. Maintain the current practice of containing the powers of road management at Cabinet level through the Ministry of Finance and the Road Fund and with the roles and functions of a road agency dissipated. b. Devolve powers down to a Road Network Management Organisation, acting as a Highway Agency; this entity built out of the appropriate departments of Uzavtoyul; responsible through a very firm Performance Agreement c. Devolve powers down to a Road Network Management Organisation, as the Highway Agency; this entity built out of the Road Fund with field representation; responsible through a very firm Performance Agreement d. Form and empower a totally new Authority, with a Board and an appointed Chairman; the Authority empowered to deliver government road policy through delivering the Strategic Plans tailored to the policy.
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Option a.
Advantages The existing system is familiar. Existing system works; there is no need to change it. Optimizes the existing human resources of Uzavtoyul for national roads. The new Road Network Manager takes the lead on all annual programming and implementation; acting under a strong Performance Agreement with emphasis on outputs and deliverables. Strategic Plans have to be fully transparent to be evaluated for budget elaboration and funding requirements. Clears the position and role of Uzavtoyul to go ahead with transformation to a contractor. The new Road Network Manager takes the lead on all annual business plans for all types of work. Transformed road fund has clearly overall responsibility and has to answer for its achievements. New Authority may orientate the road sector in the shortest time towards international models. It would have a better understanding on asset management and road business. It would improve standards by the use to the optimal level of the most advanced Strategic Partners for service provision.
b.
c.
d.
Disadvantages Allows only the current approach to road development and maintenance. This is not achieving good roads Requires releasing Road Fund from roles as road agency. Requires the existing program unit of RF to become a Unit for project accreditation. Reduces the opportunity for interference from other institutions. Needs reorganisation, by separating clearly the contracting parts currently in the organisation Requires releasing Uzavtoyul from responsibilities as road agency. It confuses Road Fund and Agency role. Requires strengthening the existing technical part of the RF transferring competences from Uzavtoyul Requires the Government to accept more autonomy of the unit. Reduces the opportunity for political interference. Would not necessarily use resources from Uzavtoyul although staff with the required experience could be encouraged to apply.
2.8.
Issue 3: As an Adjunct to the need for a Road Agency - The Need for a Ministry of Transport?
We would add to the fact that in addition to our opinion, as given above, that the existence of a Road Agency need not be considered as a prerequisite for change and institutional development Neither do we equally see at this stage the need to have a Ministry of Transport as a pre-requisite for development of the road sector. Again the reasons are several:The question of forming a Ministry of Transport has been investigated in the past and in far more detail than this project demands and the Government has not seen a need for it since. However, the lack of an organisation does not automatically remove the need to replicate the responsibilities and functions of the organisation concerned. The Consultant believes that there is a need to replicate and distribute more precisely the roles and functions that a Ministry of Transport would undertake were it to exist. The Need to Provide for all the responsibilities and Functions of a Ministry of Transport We make the same stressed emphasise that is made in the supporting argument for not needing a specific Highways Agency at this time The requirement still exists that the accepted responsibilities and functions of a conventional Transport Ministry and the part it plays in the road and road transport sector, both at an international and national level must be clearly highlighted and preserved regardless of the non-existence of such a Ministry. The need for defining and drawing up clear lines of responsibility and the Transport Ministry functions that go with those responsibilities still exist.
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We would prefer that the Government considers the modern approach; viz. identifying a Transport Committee; who is overall responsible for international representation and transport policy co-ordination, reporting to Government through a Minister of State (Minister of Finance or Minister of Economic Affairs). The Transport Committee (or Committee for Transport) should answer to the Cabinet of Ministers. The Consultant stresses that this approach provides the very important synchronisation with international practice that is required for now.
2.9.
Options a.
Advantages The existing system is familiar. Existing system works at least partly; there is no need to change it.
b.
A simple administrative adjustment can fill the vacuum of Ministry for Transport. Negates the immediate need for a Ministry of Transport. Enables cross modal analysis. More common development and research programmes No need to change the existing Cabinet of Ministers structure, just add on the TC to one of the existing ministries. The policy making is in the parent organisation which will perform all the tasks and duties of such an institution internationally. Each sub-sector is set at its level of importance to satisfy global transport demand.
c.
Disadvantages Unclear lines of responsibility. No forward driving policy unit. Mixtures of what is comprehended as Planning with programming. No International representation No cross modal transport studies Will require the Government to accept a role at the top level that does acknowledge the importance of transport. Will reduce the direct influence and involvement of each of the separate sub-sectors at Cabinet level. Will require the co-operation of all the various institutional partners involved in the supporting Transport Resource Group Will require the Government to carry out a complete U turn on previous decisions not to form a Ministry of Transport.
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2.10.
Issue 5: The Role of the Road Fund in the Future Road Sector Management Structure
In countries where a Road Fund is established the Fund is regarded as a Facilitator providing funding allocations for the road sector. When administered correctly however, and utilising the full powers that Road Funds are normally considered to be empowered with, the Fund also has a major role to play as a Moderator someone who sets the standards. The Role of the Road Fund in Improving Road Planning and Asset Administration The Moderator It is in this first role as a Moderator where the Road Fund is the most effective, both indirectly and directly, in improving the conditions of a road network it achieves this objective when it sets the prequalification criteria that demand certain standards in competencies, capacities, technologies, and overall compliance of work standards for all products and services to be financed. These parameters and criteria are the starting points for improving road network conditions, products and services. They set the benchmark standards. The Road Fund is lowering its standing, as a senior arbiter of programme delivery on behalf of the Government, if it believes that it has to physically carry out these activities and actions itself. A Road Fund therefore can be strengthened- by setting higher prequalification standards during the application process and these standards have to be observed by all the agencies applying for funding. Important Actions by the Fund (i) Detailed formulae and criteria for qualifying all funding allocations have to be determined by the Board in consultation with the stakeholders and reviewed when necessary. (ii) Signing an annual Participation Agreement with the Board, accepting the conditions under which funding is made available from the Fund, has to be undertaken by all administrations wishing to make use of the Fund. There are no exceptions. By initially setting, continuously improving, and finally enforcing the financing pre-qualification criteria for programme funding, the Road Fund can directly impact on the general levels of serviceability of a road network and ensure that funds were expended correctly achieving overall Government policies. The prequalification process could specify that a modelling tool such as the computer based HDM model has to be used for all reconstruction, capital and mid-term works. Strengthening the Fund Is Self Determining In summary, the Fund can strengthen its position in the whole process of road network administration, by its own administrative actions and by implication can impact upon and improve the standards of road network management and operations, by imposing clear, concise, higher or improved standards for all funding applications to conform to.
2.11.
Issue 6: Strengthening the Road Funds Capacity to Plan Road Sector Programmes
(i) Collecting and Modelling Road Condition Data at Rayon Level
By introducing improved standards for funding application the Road Fund will automatically require a more technologically improved collection, collation, and processing of road and road environment data and information. This improved data collection assignment will have to begin at Rayon level. (ii) The Network Analysis Using Public Service Partners
The correct and standardised Network Analysis and the follow up improved collation and processing of road date will be the first incremental step in strengthening the Road Funds position in the road sector mentoring data measurement, collection and management to new standards.
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To assist with this advance in knowledge and technical management however, the Road Fund has to be prepared to finance the specialists of the knowledge based industry (Consultants) to collate this data on behalf of the individual road administrations and carry out the modelling to the agreed standards. (iii) Assistance to the Annual Commissions
There will be implications in this outsourcing of data collection and analysis in the future. When a full national Network Analysis programme is automatically operative it will largely negate the work and purpose of the present system of Commissions actually carrying out the road visits and prioritisation processes themselves. Rather the Consultants will be working in partnership with the local Rayons, Oblasts, and the Commissions; directly partnering with the Rayons to carry out the identification, measurement and analysis of road conditions and ultimately the formation of the list of candidate programmes for the Commission to consider. The improved submissions, by the Rayon staff, to the visiting Commission will not change the scope of the Commission, but it will mean that the members of that Commission are better equipped to make the most optimal and objective decisions regarding the prioritised list it is considering and being asked to endorse.
2.12.
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Options a.
Advantages
Disadvantages
The existing system is familiar. Existing system works; there is no need to change it. The list of candidate roads will have been subjected to an objective assessment and analysis and economic modelling. Will produce an Annual Business Plan that is at the core of road asset management systems.
b.
c.
All road sector matters now vested with a team of professionals using up to date methodologies. All works programmes would have appropriate quality assurance programmes. The process of road sector management and operational is more efficient.
The current system is not a planning system. The overlapping and layering of players lacks a core mission to optimise policy. The Road Fund has to become proactive in the preparation phase of annual road programmes. The Road Fund, has to move from the approach that quality or works control is adversarial* The Road Fund must provide finance for the Public Service Partnerships to introduce a proper and objective annual road Network Analysis exercise The process would require full acceptance by the Government to establish a Road Agency. The lead in time to forming a Road Agency may take years. The Road Fund would have to revert to the pure financing organisation.
* The Term Adversarial is used in Western Countries to describe the older or more traditional type of contract whereby the Owner appoints an Engineer to represent his interests and as they are on opposite sides of the contract it is viewed that the Engineer and Contractor are opposing or adversarial. The modern contract places them both on the same side of the contract and working in partnerships and collaboration they collectively deliver what the owner requires. Consultants Recommendation Option c also Option b may be a temporary measure
2.13.
Issue 8: A Planning and Database Management Capability for the Road Fund
In modern institutional structures where there is a Ministry of Transport it often has a small co-ordinating unit for Policy, to carry out the day to day studies and research on which Government policy is based. This unit is responsible for coordinating policy evaluation and carrying out analysis to support transport policy needs and to propose new and/or improved policies. This unit itself must have strategic alliances that supply it with the results of research, monitoring reports, collated to ensure policy is working. However it does not act alone collecting and storing data for a wide range of sub-sector requirements; the task of collecting such data being outsourced to Public Service Partners drawn from the private sector. The Consultant believes that such a unit could be made up of some of the existing institutes and/or departments within the country, working together, also in a partnership. However there is a requirement for the Road Fund to have some capabilities to oversee the funding application process. The Consultant believes that the original standards for funding qualification should be set at a much higher level of analysis, prioritisation, and economic modelling to justify any programmes or projects requiring financing.
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Location of the HDM Capability The concept of capability may be wrongly interpreted as needing to have a technical capability within its own organisation and skills mix. Now a road administration can buy the capabilities that it requires and need not hold the same detailed technical sophistication in house. If the Road Fund accepts that it will have a most equitable and appropriate control over submitted programmes and projects if the funding qualification process is improved and technically refined, then the only remaining capability that the Fund will require in the future would be as a Performance Auditor. The Planning Unit or existing department will therefore only require a watching brief over the whole process of road network analysis and programme evaluation. It need not be the main operator of the HDM model. The Consultant believes that the best place to accommodate the modelling ability for the HDM 4 tool is the consortia of institutes that is proposes as the Transport Resource Group. However, the HDM should also be available with the Technical Department at the Road Fund, in order to carry out performance auditing. This gives several options for evaluating projects through HDM. There is a requirement for the Road Fund and Ministry of Finance to be able to evaluate if an application for funding for a road project has satisfied all the necessary checks and balances and has the optimal prioritisation given the funding constraints faced by the Government.
2.13.1. OPTIONS a. Train a set of staff, two or three, from within the Road Fund (probably drawn from the technical wing) to fully run and operate HDM after receiving a set of data from a road network analysis (carried out by others) and import the necessary data from the model to allow them to independently evaluate the justification and prioritisation for all the submitted programmes and projects for funding; in effect a performance audit of the traditional way of measuring and preparing the annual maintenance programme. b. Train a set of specialists from within the consortia of Institutes suggested to form the Transport Resource Group and for them to take full responsibility for running and operating the HDM model on behalf of the Road Fund and for collecting all the necessary data on road conditions through a series of road surveys either carried out by their own staff or through Service Contracts with third parties and presenting the results of these surveys to both the Commissions meeting in the Oblasts, for their processing into the application for funding from the Road Fund, and directly to the Road Fund. c. Out source the complete annual maintenance programme preparation activity to a group of consultants or consultancy companies and make them fully responsible for field surveys, data collection and HDM modelling to produce an objective, prioritised, but also socially aware, annual programme of road maintenance and repair that is forwarded to the Road Fund independently of the existing road maintenance preparation programme headed by the Commissions. The Commissions to receive a copy of the Consultants analysis and report and to add their suggested amendments or a change in the prioritisation process because of social factors not considered by the Consultant and to make the official application for funding.
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Options a.
Advantages Road Fund acting as the Road Agency and deciding the Annual Business Plan. Existing staffing arrangements remain unchanged. The specialists in the leading Institutes are well acquainted with survey and data processing. The Consortia are able to concentrate on the network analysis. The Consortia would have the Database available of each network. Forming a TRG provides the necessary support for a Road Agency and a Transport Ministry. This is the modern model for doing network condition surveys and analysis. Encourages the growth of a knowledge based industry that can bring in the latest technologies to road condition surveys. Reduces the need to form any type of existing Institute that is at present attributed to carry out such work. Optimises financial resources available for research and development
Disadvantages
b..
The RF is not the Road Agency and does not carry out the strategic planning. Staff would only be required to carry out modelling every one or two years. Requires competency as a transport economist. Requires Government to adopt the option of forming the Transport Resource Group Requires that the Road Fund recognises and has trust in the TRG to provide a true and objective prioritised program for the Annual Business Plan. Requires that the staff entrusted with the production of the ABP - from within the TRG to be aware of the responsibility they face in preparing such an important program. Requires Government to place its faith and belief in private sector capabilities and competences. Assumes that the necessary skills and resources would be available in the private sector to undertake this task. Requires that the Road Fund understand the need to provide appropriate funding and financial resources for this work to be properly carried out by the Consultancy industry.
c.
Consultants Recommendation Option b, Because it provides much more than just a road sector research and HDM 4 capability but option C would workand with optimal financial resources.
3.
3.1.
Strengthening the Road Funds role in Road Sector Administration Modalities for strengthening - Adoption of a Funding Accreditation System
Adopt a detailed Funding Accreditation System that places a wide ranging set of commitments and demands on the Road Authority (the executing agency for roads); conditions that are imposed to the project, and apply to the delivery and aftercare of the product that is being considered for funding.
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These conditions are applied at the time of applying for funding and will have to be agreed by the Road Authority. The conditions will be part of a signed agreement between the Road Fund and the Road Authority and will automatically subject the Road Authority to a Performance Auditing process applied directly by the Road Fund. As an interim measure (whilst the establishment of Min of Transport/Committee for Transport options are being considered) the Road Authority could answer directly to the Cabinet of Ministers. [Note In a classical system the Authority would answer to the Ministry of Transport and a Road Fund would be a completely separate organisation.] The agreements that are to be contained in the funding accreditation document will apply to every single application, regardless what level of intervention level the works are. No funding can be provided without a FAS document attached. The conditions requiring commitments from the Road Authority would include but not necessarily be limited to: Level of intervention or improvement Level of supervision of the candidate project Level of quality control system being applied to the project The level and sophistication of the maintenance plan for the product The management and operational structure responsible for maintaining the delivered product during its life cycle. Depending on the importance and level of sophistication of the candidate project the Road Authority would have to gain and commit itself to obtain a requisite number of credit points from the above conditions in order to obtain funding.
3.2.
3.2.2. The Performance Auditing System The Auditing and monitoring role of the Road Fund as the Executive Authority under a FAS is now orientated to Performance Audits. These can include technical checks and testing of materials etc., but will be mainly concentrated on ensuring compliance with the commitments made by the Authority in the funding accreditation document. A negative report in an annual statement would place the full responsibility for any dilution in quality or delivery of any product or project firmly with the Road Authority. The Road Fund could employ in house Performance Auditors but a better system would be to have a register of private sector auditors who could be called upon to make spot checks and organise detailed testing and produce Audit Reports according to the wishes of the Road Fund.
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3.3.
Creating an Uzbekistan Road Authority Modalities - Reform the Uzavtoyul Organisation as a Road Authority
Reposition and re-orientate the Headquarter management Structure, including the management Board of Uzavtoyul into the corporate structure of the Uzbekistan Road Authority; with appropriate regulatory powers. The proposed structure should be in line with international models. The corporate structure and main functions would be: Road network operations Planning and Programming Finance and Administration The Headquarters of the Road Authority is in Tashkent and is made out of a reformed and re-orientated existing Uzavtoyul headquarter management structure. Form regional Road Authority offices out of the existing Uzavtoyul network management organisations in the 13 Oblasts. With the following qualifications: There will no longer be a requirement to retain 7 regional operators - although part of their management could be transferred to the Avtoyuls to strengthen their experience in the management of international roads. This repositioning will also require that Uzavtoyul can no longer be part owner or directly involved in any of the design institutes or enterprises within the country. Large entities currently in the Uzavtoyul conglomerate that are dealing with construction should be privatised and/or separated from the Road Authority. Uzavtoyul will have to dispose of all existing plant and equipment holdings and physical assets; the exception being the small equipment required as a minimum for routine maintenance.15 The maintenance activities, if not outsourced, could stay inside the Road Authority but the number of enterprises should be reduced (to about 50); their activities concentrating solely on routine maintenance operations and local management.
3.4.
15
One option would be to transfer the major equipment to Transyulkyrilish on the undertaking that these plants are kept in an equipment pool - one to each of the 13 Oblasts for rental and leasing to the private sector. The Consultant has prepared a Road Asset Management Plan and System for reference.
16
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3.5.
Creating a Transport Resource Group Modalities - Through a Memorandum of Understanding Combine the Institutes of Design and
Research into a Transport Resource Group (TRG)
With the Institute of Design as the lead agency, form the existing institutes for Design and Research into a special interest group that combines and builds upon their individual strengths to provide a one shop window on all transport data and to take responsibility for monitoring all transport outcomes to ensure overall Government Policy is being delivered and importantly, is the right policy. Appoint a provisional head of TRG to lead and coordinate the consortia for a 2-3 year period or reorganisation and consolidation. The TRG to monitor transport initiatives and development programmes and advise Government when a policy needs amendment or changing in order to further the objectivity intended. The TRG to answer to the Transport Committee (or Transport Secretariat) that is recommended for establishment in the Cabinet of Ministers. [See 4 Following]. Specifically for the Road Sector: The TRG will be empowered to carry out network wide modelling and road transport studies and thereby to guide the Road Authority towards preparing Annual and Strategic Business Plans that are based on sound economic and technical modalities to obtain longer life cycles from the built environment. As such they should use HDM 4 and similar computerised models. The TRG will use its cross modal resources to advise Government on transport subsector priorities to ensure optimisation of resources. The TRG will be responsible for managing and updating a road sector Databank built on top of the digitisation of existing design, as built documents, and road passports, etc. 3.5.1. The Toolkits for the Transport Resource Group The Road Asset Management System (RAMS) The Consultant is recommending the adoption of a Road Asset Management System (RAMS) as the toolkit that will be at the basis for the whole road administration. Within the RAMS the relationship and interaction that the Road Fund will have with the concerned Government bodies is formalised and becomes part of the Standard Operating Procedures that the Authority will have to employ in its day to day activities. For the TRG however, the RAMS is also part of their multi-faceted toolkit as it indicates the main components of the Annual Planning Process for the road sector and the detailed modelling operations that will be required for a full network analysis. The RAMS also indicates the common database components for the road sector that the Group should hold on their Transport Databank at the TRG. It could be expected that in its independent role the TRG may be asked by the Road Fund to carry out analytical and structural tests on the road network as part of a Performance Auditing System that will be in force. Government Information Technology Policies As Guardian of the national transport data the TRG will have to observe and apply any protocols concerning data processing and security. These protocols will be especially applicable to data that is placed for dissemination by the Information Unit that the Consultant is recommending should be located or attached to the Resource Groups attributes.
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3.6.
Establish a Committee for Transport (or Transport Secretary) in the Cabinet of Ministers. Modalities -Through Presidential Decree establish a Committee for Transport.
In their analysis and evaluation of the deficiencies of the transport sector in Uzbekistan the Consultant came to the overall conclusion, that whilst there was no immediate need to set up a full and formal Ministry of Transport in the classical mode there was a requirement that some entity should take on the role and responsibilities that are normally associated with a Transport Ministry; especially with regard to international representation and the more modern approach of establishing optimised programmes and strategies that are part of a national plan that is based on transport cross modal planning. Establish a small executive body with the minimum of specialists, supported by a small secretariat (maximum 7 or 8 units in total) in the Cabinet of Ministers to undertake the role of leadership and coordination in overall Policy and Strategic Planning for Transport on behalf of the Cabinet of Ministers. Empower the Committee for Transport to demand transport sub-sector development programmes are integrated into an overall National Transport Plan that optimises transport sector resources of finance fixed and moveable assets and human capital. The National Transport Plan to be updated on an agreed basis The Committee of Transport is responsible for calling up studies, analyses, statistics, and transport development programme designs, from any suitable available resources in order to consolidate and optimise transport within the country The Committee of Transport to receive a separate budget to finance such activities as listed above but is directly linked with the Transport Resource Group as its main resource base for information and reporting [a recommendation in 3 above]. The Committee is empowered to represent Uzbekistan in international meetings, conferences, and bilateral and cross border negotiations in all the fields of transport; road, rail, aviation, and waterways. The Committee is empowered to undertake any additional transport sector matters that are decided by the Cabinet of Ministers to be relevant to its work and given powers and to act on behalf of the Cabinet in undertaking such duties.
The Consultant recommends that the Transport Resource Group act as the co-ordinators and direct suppliers of information, data and transport sector reports collated from all the transport sub-sectors and drawn from the results of individual sub-sector studies.
4.
4.1.
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The recommendations of the Consultant in this Institutional Development Strategy are neither too ambitious nor are they too pedantic, as they recognise that Uzbekistan may have slowly evolving institutions and agencies but this has had to be balanced with the serious need to rapidly arrest the deteriorating condition of the roads. The Institutional Development Strategy developed in the chapter above contains moderate, non-radical responses to immediate and serious problems and has taken into consideration the conditions in prevailing Presidential Decrees.
The Prevailing Decrees numbers 299 and 499 have made serious mention of the need to make proposals for the improvement of the organisational structure of Joint Stock Company Uzavtoyul, taking into account the deepening privatisation processes in industry, optimisation of operational and contractual organisations.andon the assumption of requirements of modern stage of development system of motor roads of the Republic, taking into account international experience in building and operating motor roads.
Consequently the degree of changes proposed in the IDS range from keeping the existing institutional status quo, basically unchanged, to options that completely de-nationalise most road sector management and operational functions. The expectation of the projects TOR is that the recipient Beneficiary has expressed a desire to modernise and liberalise its transport infrastructure and operational activities. [Presidential Decrees 299 and 499 state as much.]
However, even without restructuring of the institutions, there are certain changes that can be adopted. And they all are considered much needed changes.
4.2.
Required changes
The following points illustrate that these immediate reforms and changes are already possible as they are ostensibly included in the main tasks and functions of the Fund. 4.2.1. Adopt a modern Road Asset Management System (RAMS) Adoption of a clearly established and recognized RAMS with a fixed asset management plan that shows the various levels of policy, strategic programming and operations and the detailed activities that such a complete system should include. Then the immediate action is to begin to populate the activities and actions and clearly separate and divide the responsibilities and roles required to make the Plan complete. When populating the Plan the activities selected can be carried out either departmentally or by outsourcing. Not all activities need begin at the same time to begin the process of good asset management. The following abstracts are taken from the relevant Decrees and their utilisation by the Consultant is shown here. Key actions (as contained in Decrees) are given with the corresponding interpretation as introduced by the Consultant during the course of the TA. [Italics]
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Assessment of investment project and tender documentation Asset management. Coordinating, and coordination (lists of works) Business management; Control over legitimacy (of use of funds) Performance auditing; Carries out examination of construction documentation Funding Accreditation Systems; Provides performance (on improvement of road network) Performance auditing; Carries out market research of contract work market (construction industry capacity) Private sector initiatives. 4.2.2. Unify the Client Role The immediate action in this regard would for a nominated Network Manager (Uzavtoyul, Road Fund or other), to be responsible as the Client for all works: improvements, reconstruction, and rehabilitation, capital repairs, mid term repairs, routine repairs and routine maintenance on a certain class of road. There should not be two separate clients for different works on the same length or section of road. This is both counterproductive and could lead to legal and contractual conflicts. However, there can be a different client for local roads versus republican and international roads.
4.2.3. Adoption of Commercial Rates for all works of Repair and Maintenance The adoption of commercial rates for all works of repair and maintenance will allow immediate reforms across a range of activities. Especially in the introduction of competition. (i) By adopting commercial rates, having within them as they do an element of cost for plant and equipment, (the other two thirds for labour and material costs), would allow the Rayons and other agencies who did not hold their own serviceable plant to bid for works and then hire in the plant that they required. The present system precludes them from bidding unless they have available plant that they can use according to the Governments Schedule of Rates. (ii) The Road Fund could and should cease the purchase of plant and equipment and from within the Commercial Rates the contractor should be allowed to manage his own equipment. (iii) In the perspective of strengthening Uzavtoyul in its present position, every single rayon level organisation has to be fully operational and have access to the required plant, or it should not exist. 4.2.4. Rationalise the Number and Capabilities of the Rayon Organisations The present system of road administration being carried out through 159 road maintenance organisations requires a rationalisation exercise in order to make optimum use of equipment and experience. At present some maintenance enterprises are well equipped and have a reasonable amount of business and road work contracts, unfortunately, and we believe from our own research they may be in the majority, many of them are now no longer even allowed to bid for works because their plant holding is so poor. The Consultant recommends that one in 5 of the Rayons could be refurbished with all the remaining serviceable plant and equipment from the other 4 and could act in the interim as an equipment pool for any works that required more than hand tools or simple labour intensive works. This would increase efficiency as staffing in the labour based Rayons would be reduced, in particular for mechanical servicing staff. There may be other ways of rationalising the existing number of Rayons to a more economically viable number based on the amount of works and size of network. The main aim would be to have all rayon level organisations in a shape to be fully operational.
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4.2.5. Improvement of Works Quality Quality of Works is one of the major concerns in Uzbekistan. Permanent works control is required, and cannot be achieved by the few Road Fund Inspectors. The Consultants advice as set out elsewhere in the report would be to contract Supervision Consultants Companies, duly equipped, with corporate responsibility to ensure works quality & control (as Resident Engineers). The a-posteriori control (after works acceptance) of financial flows is counterproductive. Contractors need to find some flexibility for efficient site organisation.
5.
5.1.
This first step, the privatisation of the maintenance management function can be implemented under current conditions and prevailing decrees by the simple expediency of the Road Fund contracting local Consultant Companies to supervise all maintenance activities country wide, in contracts that can be project specific or by geographical area. For routine maintenance works, it will put to an end the conflict of interest between the Avtoyuls and the Rayon level enterprises, and for the mid-term and capital works, it will provide the adequate means for efficient quality control on site. For all works it supervises, the Consultant Company will take corporate responsibility for the works quality. Initially, it is also recommended that the Road Funds Inspectors (19 No) are seconded to work for the successful Consultancy companies and that the process of gradually moving them off the Government payroll and over into the private sector begins. This is repositioning them, complete with their experience and knowledge of the network, in the private construction industry.
As part of the transition and transfer arrangements the Inspectors should receive some training in modern contract management and the use of more international contract documentation. This will enable them to not just move to the private sector but help them negotiate better employment conditions. This transfer process could begin as early as 2011.
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5.2.
The main purpose for outsourcing the management on the annual maintenance programmes is again two fold: (i) To introduce modern methodologies and improve the quality in the delivery of road products and services - towards international levels and models and; (ii) To possibly expand the role of the local consultancy industry in future to undertake annual Network Analysis assignments as their knowledge of road network increases.
The maintenance supervision contract should contain certain provisos; requiring the consultant concerned to implement improved methods of works management and a more computerised form of works measurement and reporting. This will be to the benefit of the Road Fund, reducing its reliance on hard copy and reduce overhead costs.
The consultant has prepared A flow chart of implementation of possible supervision contracts with consultant companies A sample document for employing a technical control supervisory consultant, Both documents are given as Appendix A to the present final report.
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1.
2.
2.1.
Calibration
Road User Effects Calibration
The calibration of the Road User Effects inputs to HDM-4 was carried out during the period January-May 2010. Axle load surveys which formed part of the calibration work were carried out during the period 2627 April 2010 and are related in the report as part of the pilot surveys. The details of the Road User Effects Calibration is given as Annex1 of Appendix C Network Maintenance Strategy and Funding Plan. The aim of the calibration was to examine in detail the characteristics of the vehicle fleet using the network in Uzbekistan in order to adapt the Road User Effects inputs (including vehicle operating costs) to HDM-4 to specific local conditions.
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The starting point for establishing the RUE inputs to the HDM-4 model was the traffic count information collected during the manual classified counts and origin destination surveys carried out as part of the current project. Seven main vehicle classes were defined as follows: Passenger cars (including 4 wheel drive vehicles), Minibuses, Buses, Trucks up to 3.5 tons (light trucks), Trucks 3.512 tons (2 axle trucks), Trucks greater than 12 tons (3 axle trucks), Articulated trucks (>3 axle trucks). For each vehicle class, a representative vehicle type was defined and the engine driving and braking power specifications for these specific vehicle types were assumed representative of all vehicles within that category. For each vehicle type, the derivation of the vehicle attributes has been described in detail. The current average salary in Uzbekistan has been estimated and values of passenger and crew time have been developed based on the average salary. Data on replacement vehicle and replacement tyre costs were collected locally and estimates of economic costs of fuel and lubricant costs have also been developed based on local conditions. The origin destination surveys yielded information concerning vehicle occupancy, proportions of trips in work time and truck loading rates. Specific axle load surveys were carried out in order to calibrate the average vehicle operating weights and the equivalent standard axle loading for trucks and buses. A complete list of inputs to the Road User Effects model for each vehicle type is presented as part of the detailed Annex. This would be the basic information future HDM-4 users in Uzbekistan should use for further strategy or project level studies with HDM-4.
2.2.
Road Deterioration
As specific data collection for HDM-4 calibration was not part of the Terms of Reference, the calibration process aimed at fulfilling the required level 1 Desk study calibration (Refer to HDM-4 documentation, Volume 5, section 2.3). The complete calibration report is part of Appendix C, network maintenance strategy, as Annex2. The consultant could not get reliable data on last works date on more than 14 % of the total length of the pilot network. From those 14 %, most cover recent works (2007, 2008, 2009, and even 2010). Finally, Rehabilitation date for works in years 2006 and before is known on only 3.3 % of the length, and Mid-term maintenance date for same period is known on only 1.3 % of the network. Therefore, it was not possible to perform a complete calibration of the road deterioration prediction. However, data collection on the pilot network showed that many default parameter values in HDM-4 are not appropriate for Uzbek context.
2.2.1. Pavement strength Quality of materials is far from international standards: poor aggregate shape, segregation in mixes, bitumen quality questionable, poor compaction. All these reasons result in the fact that pavement materials do not comply with the required quality. To take this into account, the values for strength parameters of pavement materials were adjusted to reduce their values compared to HDM-4 defaults. Pavement SN was derived from known thicknesses, or from standards. CBR values were adjusted, adopting a low 5 value for most areas where water table is close to the surface, whilst a higher value of 15 is adopted in desert and mountainous areas, where soils are in more favourable environment.
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As pavement materials quality is questionable, an early cracking is observed, and a fast crack evolution. To take this parameter specifically into account, a 0.8 value was taken for CDS parameter, instead of the default 1. The impact of this value is to shorten by 40 % the time for first crack initiation.
2.2.2. Distresses For pavement distresses, the visual surveys were not made according to HDM-4 format, which is too long to be carried out. The match between survey format and HDM-4 format has been detailed as part of the database specifications in appendix H2 of the draft final report. Transverse cracking is a specific problem. In HDM-4, transverse thermal cracking appears only for Subtropical hot and Temperate freeze climate zones, as detailed in table C2.19, where NCTeq is the maximum number of transverse cracks per km, and Teq the time (in years) to reach that level. Considering the temperatures, Uzbekistan is rather in sub-tropical cool region, however transverse cracking reaches a very high intensity in some places. The climate zones were set to subtropical hot (except for the mountainous areas), but even so the maximum intensity of transverse cracking still doesnt go beyond 100 cracks per km (1 crack every 10 m), which is far less than observed on some sections. As it is not possible to modify those parameters in HDM-4, it must be reminded that HDM-4 results are likely to under predict the rate of transverse thermal cracking.
2.3.
Roughness
Roughness values for new pavements are higher than usual. This is mainly due to material quality, and possibly to inadequate procedures for works realisation and control. The equipment, similar to those used in other countries, should not be part of the problem. Whatever the origin this problem arises from, it was taken into account in Works effects calibration with the two following assumptions: Roughness for a new pavement is set to 2.5 IRI. No maintenance works can provide a roughness better than 2.5 IRI. Considering overlay works, the bilinear relationship used in HDM-4 was modified. The graph below shows the difference for 80 mm overlays. Figure 5: Roughness reduction after thick overlays
Roughness reduction, 80 mm
7.0 6.0
Roughness after
5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 8.0 Roughness before 12.0 16.0 Uzbekistan HDM-4 default
Similar changes were made for Overlays 50 mm and 40 mm. Roughness progression was kept at the usual deterioration rate.
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2.4.
HDM-4 configuration
In addition to the proper calibration of the models, the consultants reviewed all configuration parameters to adjust the HDM-4 workspace to the Uzbek Environment. This is also document in Appendix C Annex 2.
3.
Training
Training in HDM-4 was organised in three steps during the project: 2-weeks beginners training course organized in the Road Fund in Tashkent in December 2009 1-week introductory training course in TRL in UK 1-week advanced training course to be implemented in July 2010 The results of the 2 first sessions and assessment of the current knowledge of the Road Fund staff members regarding HDM is given in Chapter 8 of the present report. The general assessment is that only few members of staff are fully operational, whilst a larger number gained overall knowledge of the software and its possible use. Overall, it is not possible to develop HDM-4 capacities without an appropriate institutional framework defined.
4.
Network Analysis
This section of the report summarises the network analysis results when using HDM-4 for the development of a long-term network maintenance strategy. The full strategy analysis is presented as part of Appendix C. The analysis in undertaken in steps as follows: Analysis of possible optimal strategies using HDM, on representative sections on the network on which full data are available. Description of the full network of public roads in Uzbekistan for the use of HDM, in a summarised form, by defining different classes of roads, according to their category, their condition and their traffic into a network matrix. Definition of possible maintenance treatments and maintenance scenarios (treatments applied over the whole duration of the study, here set to 20 years). Analysis of the costs and benefits for the various scenarios, to select the optimal level of service and related expenditure; without budget constraints and with several budget scenarios.
4.1.
Those sections were then described as they were when they were just built, and the different strategies were analysed over a 50 year analysis period. This very long analysis period is not relevant for economic analysis, but shows the long term consequences of the different strategies.
4.1.1. Results The Economic Indicators Summary Report of the analysis of possible strategies is given as Annex 3 at the end Appendix C. The main trends are: The actual strategy is not sustainable, as it leads to unacceptable roughness values in all cases, except on low traffic sections. The strategy that describes the Norm is the best one, in terms of net present value, except for low traffic, but is also the most expensive. If we consider the NPV/Cost ratio, the Norm strategy is not well ranked and far from optimal. Without any surprise, the criterion NPV favours the strategies that provide a low roughness, thus minimising Road User Costs. Criterion NPV/Cost ratio favours the cheap strategies, or the strategies for which important works are delayed long enough to reduce considerably the discounted cost. These are mainly the Rehabilitation strategies. An additional run was done, specifying in all norms a percentage of repairs of 100%, similar to Norm percentage, instead of the current estimated 30% percentage. This has a considerable impact on optimal strategies, due to the fact that a comprehensive intervention at the very start of a distress evolution prevents from a fast extension and saves additional investments. As roughness evolution is slowed down with improved routine repair, the roughness triggered interventions are cheaper in discounted costs, and this favours the frequent overlays triggered by roughness strategies. The actual strategy cannot prevent roughness from reaching values of 10 IRI and higher, that are not acceptable for a modern network, even with low traffic volume. At that level, operating speed falls below 60 km/h, and this is a considerable nuisance for economic development. The official Norm standard provides the best level of service, however, at the highest cost for the Road Administration. From this first run, it is clear for the consultant that: There should be more emphasis on routine repair; If this is done, it is preferable to trigger overlays by road condition, namely roughness, rather than on predefined schedule. If no emphasis is given to routine repair, the optimum may be to wait until very bad condition to trigger rehabilitation.
4.2.
Budget Analysis
For the budget analysis, the network was modelled through a representation of the network with 77 road sections. The segmentation criteria to define the HDM-4 sections were: Road Class: International, Republican, Local (grouping Regional and District); Road Category: Categories I to V Pavement type: Concrete, Asphalt on concrete, Asphalt, Cold Mix, Gravel, Earth; Road condition: Excellent, Good, Fair, Poor, Bad.
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4.2.1. Strategies From the set of strategies tested in the Long term optimum study described above, only the most relevant were tested and the model was run for the whole network matrix (77 sections) with these strategies. 4.2.2. Budget constraints Some limitations were introduced to the budget levels, studying five alternatives: Unconstrained budget; Unconstrained, minus 20%; Unconstrained, minus 35%; The last scenario was the (very pessimistic!) modelling of NO periodic and rehabilitation for the next 4 years, meaning a complete stand-still of investments till 2015.
4.2.3. Results The optimal strategy is automatically selected by HDM-4 as being the one with the highest NPV. The report showing the optimal strategy for each section is given in Annex 3 of Appendix C. The optimal strategy is no longer the Norm, except for a few sections. One reason could be that this strategy is optimal when you assign it strictly from the construction or the reconstruction of the pavement, but that it is no longer the case if you miss to trigger the adequate works at the adequate moment. One important point to stress is the fact that, like in most HDM-4 studies, the current strategy is far from optimal one. The application of this inappropriate strategy over a long period of years leads to a situation where the current road network condition became step by step into mainly poor condition. This is the result of a huge backlog in road maintenance works, and consequently, as expected, all backlogged works are triggered in the first years of analysis period. This initial peak is not acceptable, and will be smoothed for the works programme definition. Figure 6 : Annual budget needs to upgrade and maintain the network in optimal condition
1 500
Annual costs
1 000 500 0
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
Average
With the current modelled maintenance and repair costs, the optimal budget is established at about 5.5 Billion USD over the analysis period (20 years). This would mean an annual budget between 250 and 300 Mill. USD, which is equivalent of an annual expenditure between 7000 and 10000 USD/km (as an average for all road classes). This amount is close to international practice.
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4.2.4. Network conditions according to budget scenario With the optimal strategy, road roughness is kept at a level that can be qualified as Excellent for International roads, Good for Republican roads, and Fair for Local roads. Under the different budget constraints, this is no longer the case, and the average quality of the network is constantly decreasing when the budget constraints get tighter. The situation is not too bad for the -20% option or the -35% option, where for each road class, the service level is only slightly deteriorated, except for Local roads at the end of the analysis period, for which roughness comes back to current values. International and Republican roads can still be kept in good to fair condition. The average roughness level is established approximately as follows: International roads: 4 Republican roads : 4 and 5.5 Local Roads: 6.5 and 8 Regarding the traffic volumes, in particular for the local roads network, this level of service is not fully satisfactory, but still acceptable. On the contrary, the situation becomes critical with the -50% option (2.8 Billion USD), which leads to unacceptable road conditions at the end of analysis period, even for the international roads.
4.2.5. Annual Expenditures From the findings above, with adjusted unit costs for works and vehicle operation, the annual expenditures have been developed in more detail. The expenditures have also been subdivided by network class, to identify the resources that should be allocated to each road class. For the time being, the 3 following scenarios for the spending profile will be adopted: The unconstraint budget of 5.5 Billion UZSums to achieve optimal network condition The medium budget of 4.5 Billion UZSums which still allows to maintain the network in appropriate condition The constraint budget with 3.6 Billion UZSums over the analysis period. For each of the scenario, the annual budget has been divided into backlog maintenance required to upgrade the network to acceptable condition and periodic maintenance (including mid-term and capital repair), required over time to maintain the network quality at the same level. Table 9 : Annual forecasted periodic maintenance expenditures, 2011-2030
Years 2011-2012 Annual Expenditure over the period 2013-2015 2016-2020 2021-2025 Total
Scenario 1 Backlog Periodic Scenario 2 Backlog Periodic Scenario 3 Backlog Periodic 200 120 150 120 100 150 0 180 200 150 200 150 100 200 0 250 250 200 250 200 100 250 0 300
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4.2.6. Savings in RUC For each strategy, the annual vehicle operating costs are presented hereafter. The Balance between Road Administration costs and Road User costs over the analysis period (2011 2030) is presented in the following table (all costs in Million US$, M$): Table 10 : Increase in Road User costs due to budget constraints
Budget reduction 0 - 1 100 - 2 000 Increase in RUC due to budget limitation 0 2 739 9 253 15 528
Scenario Unconstrained -20% -35% No period & capital maintenance till 2015
5 540
460 499
- 60
This means that a relatively small reduction in the budget will have very significant impact on the road users, and, as such, on the overall economy of Uzbekistan. The effect is in particular important for scenario 2 (-35% budget reduction) but even worse for the very pessimistic assumption, where periodic and capital works are delayed until 2015. 4.2.7. Impact of works delay Considering the high priority of investment works, a run was made to compare the strategies above with identical strategies delayed after 2015, with limited routine maintenance activities while waiting the availability of more funds. In the case of Delay works option, the total undiscounted amount for works is approximately the same as for the base option, slightly lower. As this amount is distributed over 16 years instead of 20; this results in a 25% increase of annual budget for years 5 to 20 on average. However, this total amount is not equally distributed. In year 2015, the backlog is more than 3 800 M$. By the same time, Road users costs are considerably increased. Figure 6 shows roughness evolution under this option. Figure 7 : Evolution of Road Roughness under the Delay option
Over the 77 road sections of the global network, the Delay option has a positive NPV only in 4 cases, all on Category V road sections.
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4.3.
Conclusion
The important outcomes of the strategy analysis are the following: The actual strategy that is presently carried out on the network is not sustainable, as the time intervals between interventions on the pavements are too long, it leads to unacceptable roughness values in all cases, except on low traffic sections. The strategy that is describes in the standards (Norm) is the best one, in terms of net present value, except for low traffic, but it is also the most expensive. If we consider the NPV/Cost ratio, the Norm strategy is not well ranked and far from optimal. Strategies that or rehabilitation at a intervention level, described in terms of pavement performance rather then time interval are generally selected as optimal; they also include significant numbers of surface dressings or seals, relatively inexpensive techniques, which are particularly appropriate for the Uzbek roads, that crack at early age. Regarding the analysis of possible strategies, the importance of improved routine repair should also be noticed, as it significantly improves the pavement deterioration rate. The result that should be noted from the budget scenarios is the need for immediate periodic and backlog maintenance. The optimal budget would be 5500 Million USD over the 20-years period. With a 20% reduction of this optimal budget, the road network will still be in satisfactory condition, whilst a 35% decrease would mean an important loss of service level, for low volume roads. The worst case modelled, that has not been taken forward to the financing plan is the assumption that no maintenance would be carried out during the next 4 years, whilst the development programme is being implemented. This would not only mean deterioration of the road conditions and increase in user costs, but also a more important, although delayed, investment need and overall budget effort. The analysis also shows that the network is still in a condition, where it could be recovered with limited back-log rehabilitation, but this would not be the case if the effort would be delayed or diverted elsewhere.
5.
Programme Analysis
The report on the programme analysis has been submitted end of July as appendix I of the final report. It demonstrates in detail the typical development of maintenance and investment programmes using HDM-4 based economic analysis, based on the data collected during the consultants pilot trials. The programme has been set-up without considering the present investment programme of resolution PP1103, as the detail of this programme was not available to the Consultants when preparing the present report. The works programme has been set-up in coherence with the national road network maintenance and backlog recuperation strategy (Appendix C of the Draft Final Report) that preserves the value of the whole asset while minimising costs for users as well as for the taxpayer contributing to the road fund. The technical options and related costs are explored and explained by modelling two possible budget allocations for the next 3 years, based on the middle strategy17 presented in the Network Analysis. The pilot represents only 11% of the total network length, but carries almost 40% of the traffic flows. Therefore, the pilot network analysed does not represent a typical part of the Uzbek network, as being of the higher strategic importance. The budget proposed to be allocated for this network has thus been modelled as a part of the total budget reaching from 20% to 35%.
See Appendix C, Chapter 4&5, Budget scenario 2, with a budget constraint of 20% compared to the required (unconstraint) funds, at 4.5 Billion USD over the 20 years analysis period
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17
The programme is prepared using the following steps: Modelling of the pilot network from the data base: the 4000km represented in fact over 5200km of carriageways, where most important road condition data (excepting pavement structure and maintenance history) were available. Definition on possible works sections, that should be homogenous in terms of condition, based on the survey data: criteria for defining sections limits were pavement type, traffic and number of carriageways. As condition data showed a very high dispersion, it was not used for segmentation. A total number of 327 works sections were defined covering the whole pilot network. Preparation of possible strategies and works, in coherence with the above mentioned strategy. The optimal strategies resulting from the network analysis were used, and those were completed by routine and intermediate maintenance works. Programme Analysis using HDM-4 to define optimal strategy and timing for the individual sections. For this, two budget constraints were used, deducted from the middle network analysis budgets. This resulted in an annual budget constraint for the period 2011-2013 from 70 Million USD to 122 Million USD. Running HDM-4 without budget constraint resulted in a 360 Mill USD programme, most works being triggered in 2011. From this run, sections were postponed, as not all sections could be financed. This selection was done manually, to postpone rather backlog maintenance then periodic interventions. The results comparing the budget options showed that a constraint of 70 Million USD/year did provide almost no improvement of network conditions during the analysis period, whilst the 122 Million ISD constraint is close enough to the optimal unconstraint run to be a feasible alternative. The results are illustrated by the figures below: Figure 8 : Roughness evolution under 70 Mill. USD Annual budget
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In Option 1, average roughness reaches the level Excellent (4 IRI) as soon as 2012 for Republican roads, but it is necessary to wait until 2018 or 2019 to get the same quality on International roads. In option 2, the time to reach the Excellent level is almost as long for International roads, (2017 instead of 2018), but they reach the Good level (4 5 IRI) as soon as 2014.
6.
Project Analysis
The project analysis was prepared as part of the final HDM-4 training, on 4 selected examples of the development plan from Resolution PP1103. The sections selected for the pilot project analysis have been indicated by the Road Fund: 1 - A-380, between km 916 and km 1204: Rehabilitation, using asphalt concrete, on three sections, to be implemented in 2012, 2013, and 2014. 2 - M-39, between km 1330 and km 1451: Rehabilitation, with asphalt concrete, on three sections, in 2011 and 2012 3 - A-380, between km 228 and km 315: Widening from 2 to 4 lanes (2 carriageways of 2 lanes each, building a new concrete pavement next to the existing asphalt one. The existing pavement is rehabilitated. Works scheduled in 2011. 4 - A-373, between km 116 and km 195: Pavement reconstruction, changing pavement structure from Asphalt concrete to cement concrete, in 2011. Above providing useful information on possible sections to be considered for a maintenance programme over the next 3 years, on the pilot network, one of the main targets whilst writing this report was to provide sufficient explanations and back-ground information so that the staff trained during the project would be able, after the last training course, to use this material and to be able to take the method forward for future analysis. The main economic results for the four projects are given below, and explained in detail in the Appendix:
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6.1.
The same report shows that the reconstruction triggered in 2012 on the same section, in the frame of the Reconstruction alternative, has a financial cost of approximately 73.3 M US$, six times more.
Maybe the project design and evaluation should be revised. We made an additional run, adding for each section a new alternative, Immediate rehabilitation. This immediate rehabilitation (120 mm AC) is triggered the same year as the Reconstruction. Before the standard Wait is assigned, and after rehabilitation, the standard Asphalt is assigned. Table 11 : Economic Analysis results for project A-380, km 916- 1204
Present Value of Agency Capital Costs (CAP) 2.096 64.757 2.381 65.444 2.381 58.173
Section
Alternative
Increase in Agency Costs (C) 0.000 62.597 0.000 62.991 0.000 55.723
Net Present Value (NPV = B-C) 0.000 -34.697 0.000 -33.791 0.000 -29.004
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 0.000 3.0 (1) 0.000 3.0 (1) 0.000 2.9 (1)
A-380 - from 0916 to 1004 - Asph A-380 - from 1004 to 1104 - Asph A-380 - from 1104 to 1204 - Asph
Base Alternative: no reconstruction Reconstruction in 2012 Base Alternative: no reconstruction Reconstruction in 2013 Base Alternative: no reconstruction Reconstruction in 2014
6.2.
6.3.
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Section
Alternative
The total positive NPV of widening alternative on section 1 (96.930) is slightly greater than the total negative NPV on section 2 and 3 for the same alternative (71.316 + 23.966 = 95.282). This means that if the project had been defined as a whole on the total link, for instance using the by Project option in HDM4), its profitability would have been positive.
6.4.
Section
Alternative
Increase in Agency Costs (C) 0.000 -0.033 6.919 0.000 0.482 19.155 0.000 -0.931 44.350 0.000 -1.651 43.850
Net Present Value (NPV = B - C) 0.000 6.380 0.652 0.000 14.675 -0.634 0.000 47.486 14.316 0.000 32.502 -3.053
Internal Rate of Return (IRR) 0.000 161.0 (1) 13.5 (1) 0.000 160.5 (1) 11.4 (1) 0.000 253.9 (1) 16.6 (1) 0.000 188.8 (1) 11.1 (1)
0.000 6.346 7.571 0.000 15.157 18.522 0.000 46.555 58.666 0.000 30.851 40.796
0.000 5.229 0.083 0.000 7.281 -0.032 0.000 6.400 0.281 0.000 6.900 -0.063
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6.5.
Conclusions
Four pilot projects have been analysed regarding their economic benefits under defined works options. These projects have been used to train the Road Fund staff on HDM-4 and to demonstrate the aim of economic analysis. All four projects are part of the investment programme of the Road Fund for the coming 4 years. Only for one project (A-380, km 228-315) the economic analysis showed a positive return on investment, for all other projects, the NPV is negative and the IRR low, although all pavements are in deteriorated conditions. This can be explained by two reasons: On one side, the traffic volume on most projects is very low, meaning road user benefits and travel time savings are limited for an improved road condition On the other side, the projects costs are generally high, due to important works that are triggered. When reconsidering the same projects with more limited investments (e.g. rehabilitation instead of reconstruction) or a different time scale (e.g. opening in 2015 rather than 2011) the economic benefits can be much increased, and most projects could become economically viable.
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1.
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2.
System Overview
The present database and its link with HDM-4 were targeted for improvement of the long term strategic planning and short-to mid-term programming of maintenance: meaning periodic (mid-term) maintenance, strengthening, rehabilitation and reconstruction. Whilst improvements, in particular widening can also be addressed with the developed tools, this was not the main objective of the ToR. Several aspects of a road database have been analysed, that are all of importance to make the tool sustainable in future: Structure of the data base and availability and format of the data required for the HDM-4 analysis (see next section); Calculations and data processing; Reporting and exporting of data (in particular regarding the future link with HDM-4); Programming language and owner/programmer. For the present project, the consultants developed a software program with its local counterpart, designed specifically for the Road Fund and that can and could be enhanced later. All the source code and software routines will be handed over to the Road Fund at the end of the project. The software should be seen as a pilot RMS for Uzbekistan. It includes the core requirements of a road data base, and demonstrates the possible tools and uses, but it is would gain from additional developments, regarding the data range (additional assets and data to be stored), the data processing and export (development of GIS interface or similar, not part of the present assignment), management of user rights and dissemination at regional / local level and perhaps development of specific programming tools, as selection of treatments, decision trees, monitoring indexes The possible ways of improvements are multiple. As the development of a full data base and PMS tool is a multi-year ambition, the present system should be viewed as the nucleus of a system to be developed further. As the software is not a commercial generic tool, changes in the software structure can be done, and additional interfaces and data processing can be developed. The future changes recommended by the Client or other Consultants can be possibly implemented at local level. The Consultants have analysed in the first project phase what features are the core requirement of the road data base in Uzbekistan: User inter-face and data up-loading tools (in particular, import of bulky pavement survey data files...); Checking procedures, to detect errors preventing insertion of data in the wrong fields and detecting errors or omissions, ensure the integrity and security of access; the compatibility of the reference location system used in the data base with the language used by the engineering profession in Uzbekistan ; the compatibility to HDM 4, achieved by the possibility to create files directly used by HDM ; the possibility to export the data for its manipulation in Excel or similar to produce statistics, graphs etc... The data base has been designed to gather and organise as a first priority all the information necessary for HDM-4 analysis. In this respect, the Consultant has analysed what these core requirements are, and data that sometimes was even recorded during the pilot trial was still left aside as less crucial. Indeed it became quickly apparent that a compact database, but filled consequently with the relevant data is more useful then the preparation of a large system, that would only virtually exist as being mostly empty. Also the data base design has to take into account the future possibilities of updating the data, thus sustainability and it is therefore a general recommendation to limit the data collection to the strict requirements.
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The data base structure can be explained with the following figure: Figure 10 : Data base structure
Traffic Sections Traffic details
Road
Reference location system Strength Network Roughness Other condition parameters Oblasts Rayons Climate
Vehicle types Materials Pavement Layers Traffic lanes Structures Geometry parameters soils References
Description
Import of Data Export of Data Export to HDM Calculation A B Means table B depends on table A
The data tables can be divided in 3 groups: The location reference system, meaning the list of the roads and their identification, as well as the location system used to locate all events on a road; The actual data or events that are located on a section or a point of the road. These can be divided into road description data, road condition data, road use data (traffic) and environment. The reference tables or libraries, tables that give lists or ranges of values that are used in the software. In the particular case of Uzbekistan, the libraries are also often used to give the correspondence of data values between the database and HDM. Above the data tables, the software includes a certain number of calculations. The information has been stored per elementary road section (defined at regular interval, generally 1000 m for example), and includes: road geometric characteristics ; road surface condition ; road structure conditions ; historical data on the road construction, rehabilitation and maintenance (where available) ; environment data; traffic in volume, nature and growth; The data screens have followed a template to standardise the work of the user. When inputting data (manually or though loading features) a certain number of coherence checks are carried out to ensure data integrity. A typical user interface can be seen on the following example:
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The data inside the database are presented in a grid at the right side of the screen. The left part of the screen is designed for data input or editing.
3.
Specifications
The initial specifications for the system were developed as part of the inception report. The first version was dealing mainly with the structure and definition of the database itself, ignoring the link to HDM and other features. The consultants at that stage also described a quite ambitious reference system that would update the road inventory completely. Finally, when the pilot surveys were implemented, the feed-back from the surveys teams was that a complete new system could not be implemented easily, and the whole profession was used to a kilometre system. The principle of a kilometre referencing system is a continuous location system, counted from the roads starting point till its end. In practice, due to changes of alignment, measurement precision, etc... The total road length recorded in such a system is never accurate compared to the situation in the field. For this reason, most countries adopted a reference point system, where the road length is a sum of short individual sections, identified by the reference points. Whilst this system gives a higher a precision it needs a significant investment in accurate distance measurement, implementing of physical reference points or posts, and it was not possible to organise this change in the limited project scope. The consultants thus reverted to the kilometre system traditionally in use in CIS countries. In the second project period, the consultants developed in more detail the link of the database and HDM, and the different calculations required to transform the field data, in individual survey segments (about 1000m of length), into average data for a HDM-works section (that are generally between 3 and 30 km). The revised specifications were submitted as part of the monthly report for February. In the last project period, the specifications where updated on specific technical issues and these changes mostly covered 2 issues: either errors or ambiguity of the initial version, or specifications that were found unpractical during the tests. The final specifications, representing the final software handed over were part of the draft final report as Appendix H2.
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4.
User Manual
The aim of the user manual that was prepared as part of the present assignment is twofold: To guide the user through the input screen and give advice on the practical manipulation of software and data To comment on the data that is used, and give technical explanations on the data. This second aspect of the user manual was found of particular importance. Indeed, the user interface is based on usual access forms, and is intuitive for MS Excel and Access users. On the contrary, the technical system used in HDM (and therefore in the database) is largely following American AASHTO standards, that are not well known in Uzbekistan. The manual is giving the back-ground information for the users on the values used in the software and their significance. The user manual of the database has been prepared and submitted as Appendix H1 to the draft final report issued end of June 2010.
5.
Future Steps
Additional future developments can be ambitious or small improvements to simplify the daily work. Simple improvements include: Including of other data that are not covered now (management of assets like signing, marking, etc). Additional loading facilities (for other data than condition data, like traffic). Additional export facilities. Reviewing some of the interfaces and user restrictions. Improving some of the software routines to improve speed. Additional features that would be adding value to the software are: Development of query facilities, to allow the user to develop its own queries, involving multiple tables. Development of condition indicators to be able to monitor the condition of the network in a summarised form over the years, and to produce summarised condition information for planning and programming purposes (as a sophistication of the previous point). Development of charts and graphs based on the software (although most graphs could be as easily produced using Excel). Additional complex developments: Adding GIS interface or at least mapping facilities. Similarly, adding a facility for automatic editing of strip diagrams. Addition programming rules, like selection of treatments and priorities for sub-sections, according to condition and load. Eventual developments of user access rights, in case of regional and local dissemination.
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1.
Pilot sections
1.1. Approved programme
In a meeting on 12th October between the Consultants and the Road Fund (PIU and Planning Department), it was agreed that for various reasons, the pilot trial should cover: the international network selected important sections in Tashkent region There are various reasons for this selection These are the sections of key interest for the Road Fund, regarding the planning of periodic maintenance, rehabilitation and also development of the network. From a practical point of view, on these sections, most passport data should be available. The pilot data collection of the Consultant would enable to review and transpose this data into the format needed for HDM-4. It would constitute a sample with described and validated procedures for data processing that could be reproduced later for the remaining part of the network.
The final approved list of sections was received on 27 of October 2009 and included the following: Table 14: Approved list of Trial Sections
Road N 1 Road Number M-34 Section Tashkent - Dusanbe Total length (km) 160
th
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
TOTAL
M-37 M-39 M-41 A-373 A-376 A-377 A-378 A-379 A-380 4P1 4P2 4P12 4P20 4P29 4P45 4P87
Samarkand Ashkabad - Turmenistan Almaty - Bischkek -Tashkent - Termez Bischkek - Dusanbe - Termez Tashkent - Osch Kokand - Djizak Samarkand - Aini Samarkand - Karschi Navoi - Utchkuduk Border Kungrad Nukus - Guzar Tashkent ring-road Tashkent - Almalik Bektemir - Chirchik - Gasalkent- Charvak Karacyb - Buka - Bekabad Gulistan - Gagarin section km 0-35 Samarkand - Kolzevaia section 0-8 & 33-46 Guzar - Chim - Kukdala
Following this, the consultants prepared specifications for the survey work (including traffic, visual inspections and roughness in a first instance) and submitted a budget and programme for the realisation of the trial.
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The specifications and template data sheets can be found as Annexes in the technical Appendices (E for network condition and G for traffic) along with the detail of results and analysis. Approval on the budget and programme was received on 23rd of November. After the first series of surveys were completed, and some budget was still available, the consultants submitted a request to carry out limited deflection surveys and one axle load survey. The approval for these additional surveys was received late March 2010, and the surveys carried out immediately. All surveys, including roughness, deflection and axle loading were completed end of April.
2.
2.1.
X X X
Source: Consultants estimates The Transport Economist was mobilised in October 2009, the planning and organisation of the surveys commenced in mid October and the actual surveys were carried out in late November and early December 2009, after final approval of the survey budget by the Republican Road Fund under the Ministry of Finance. The results of the manual classified traffic count surveys are summarised in Table 5 below. The count period is specified and the number of vehicles for each of the nine vehicle types counted is summarised. Appendix G contains the detailed traffic flows by vehicle type for each half hour during the count period for each count location.
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In order to convert the counted traffic volumes to annual average daily traffic, the Consultants used the conversion coefficients available in the Uzbekistan Instruction on Traffic Counts on Automobile Roads Departmental Norm MKN 45-2007. Firstly, the counts were converted to total daily volumes using the daily coefficient factors developed in Appendix F of Departmental Norm MKN 45-2007. Due to delays and difficulties in commencing the surveys at Site 1, the daily coefficient is based on a 7 hour count commencing at 10.00am in November (2.19). At Sites 2, 3, 4 and 5, the daily coefficient is based on a 9 hour count commencing at 08.00am in November (1.71). At Site 6, the daily coefficient is based on an 8 hour count commencing at 08.00am in December (1.97). At Sites 7, 8, 9 and 10, the daily coefficient is based on a 9 hour count commencing at 08.00am in December (1.76). Secondly, the counts were converted from the month of count (November or December) to an average month. The respective coefficients were November (0.96) and December (1.09). Finally, the total volumes were sub-divided into the seven main vehicle classes based on the proportions recorded during the count period.
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Site No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Road No A373 M-39 M-39 A378 M-37 M-39 M-37 M-37 A380 A380
TOTAL 17401 5664 5090 1632 4197 1198 3507 6955 719 422
Source: Traffic count surveys carried out in November and December 2009.
Table 17: Estimates of Annual Average Daily Traffic 2009 Passenger car 24279 7558 6386 1914 4283 1707 4850 11119 942 445 Truck up to 3.5 t. 477 71 79 16 51 19 180 138 40 15 Trucks 3.5-12 t. 242 136 284 227 228 112 155 253 75 13 Trucks greater than 12t. 420 207 195 90 79 163 171 255 100 86 Articulated trucks 193 259 218 15 159 131 221 213 59 67
Site No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Road No A373 M-39 M-39 A378 M-37 M-39 M-37 M-37 A380 A380
TOTAL 26612 9093 7972 2480 6289 2280 6106 12778 1287 735
Source: Consultants estimates based on traffic count surveys in November and December 2009.
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2.2.
2.2.3. Results The table below sets out the recorded traffic flows, number of interviews and the sample size for each OD site.
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Table 18: Number of Interviews and Sample Size for Each OD Site
Station 1 2 3 6 8 10 Total
Recorded Traffic Number of interviews Sample Size 6851 2636 2509 565 3528 183 16272 514 805 804 473 659 176 3431 7.5% 30.5% 32.0% 83.7% 18.7% 96.2% 21.1%
Source: Consultants estimates based on origin destination surveys in November and December 2009.
A total of 3,431 interviews were carried out and the overall sample size was in excess of 20%. The sample size at Site 1 was relatively low due to the very high traffic volumes. However, sample sizes at Sites 6 and 10 were very high (in excess of 80% and 90% respectively). Origin destination matrices for all vehicles were prepared for each site and these are presented in Appendix 5. The matrices covered initially the movements in the direction interviewed and it was assumed that the matrix in the opposite direction would be completely symmetrical. As a result of this simplification (rather than interviewing in both directions and applying separate factors by direction) there are minor differences between the sum of the movements in each matrix and the estimated AADT flows calculated in the previous Section. The matrices have been analysed and the results of the analysis have been set out in the detailed Appendix G. Analysis has been carried out to examine the numbers and proportions of international traffic movements (with origin and/or destination outside Uzbekistan), Inter Oblast movements (with origin and/or destination beyond the oblasts adjacent to the count site) and local trips (with origin and destination in the oblasts adjacent to the count site). Additional analysis has also been carried out to examine vehicle occupancy rates by vehicle type and the proportions of work and non-work trips by vehicle type. These data have been incorporated in the Road User Effects inputs to HDM-4. One of the most interesting results was the proportion of international and long-distance trips, for which the results have been reproduced below: Table 19: International Traffic Movements for Each OD Site
Passenger Car Road No A373 0 M-39 5 M-39 8 M-39 1 M-37 10 A380 2 Truck up to Trucks 3.53.5 t. 12 t. 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 Trucks greater than 12t. 0 0 4 0 0 3 Articulated trucks 0 36 35 9 11 2
Site No 1 2 3 6 8 10
Minibus 0 0 0 0 0 0
Autobus 0 0 1 0 0 0
TOTAL 1 41 50 10 21 8
Source: Consultants estimates based on origin destination surveys in November and December 2009.
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Site No 1 2 3 6 8 10
Minibus 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Source: Consultants estimates based on origin destination surveys in November and December 2009.
These figures indicate that articulated trucks make up the majority of international traffic, particularly on M39 and M37. A significant proportion of these articulated trucks are in transit through Uzbekistan with both origin and destination in other countries. Small numbers of cars were recorded on international trips, but these are relatively insignificant as a proportion of total traffic using the roads. Surprisingly, only a single truck was recorded as being on an international trip on A373 east of Tashkent.
2.3.
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2.3.1. Compilation of Data Records Based on all available traffic records for 2009, the Consultants compiled a listing of regional roads in the range 4P1-4P287, including sub-sections by kilometre length and connecting roads with suffixes (for example 4P2A, 4P2B etc.) A data table in Excel was created and the table was filled with data based on 10 vehicle classes as follows: Cars Buses Trucks <2 Tonnes Trucks 2-5 Tonnes Trucks 5-8 Tonnes Trucks 8-12 Tonnes Trucks >12 Tonnes Articulated Trucks Tractors Motorcycles
Most of the count data related to short period counts and the data table also included the total vehicles counted, the expansion factor to ADDT (from the Uzbekistan Instruction on Traffic Counts on Automobile Roads Departmental Norm MKN 45-2007) and the total AADT. On other sections, only the total AADT was available and therefore the breakdown by vehicle type was not recorded. After examining all available data, it became clear that there was an absence of data on various connecting roads and also, on a very small number of roads, there were no data records whatsoever. 2.3.2. AADT by HDM Vehicle Types For use in the HDM-4 analysis, it was necessary to convert the AADT traffic flows into the 7 HDM vehicle classes namely: Cars Minibuses Buses Trucks up to 3.5 tonnes Trucks 3.5-12 tonnes Trucks >12 tonnes Articulated Trucks
Based on the finally compiled sample of regional roads, the average proportions by HDM vehicle type were established as follows: Table 21 : Typical proportions of vehicles on republican roads Trucks greater than 12t. 7%
Minibus 4%
Autobus 2%
Truck up to 3.5 t. %
Trucks 3.512 t. %
Articulated trucks 2%
TOTAL 100%
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Hence, the next stage was to apply these proportions to the recorded AADT for each section. In order to correct rounding errors, the actual number of passenger cars was adjusted to ensure that, after application of these proportions, the total vehicles corresponded precisely to the count records.
2.3.3. Weighted Average AADT by Road For the purposes of the HDM evaluation, it was decided that each road would be treated as a single link without sub-sections. Therefore the next step was to calculate the average AADT weighted by the length of each sub-section in order to provide a single AADT for each road link. The flow by vehicle type was multiplied by the length in kilometres of the respective sub-sections of the road. The volumes for each sub-section were then summed together and divided by the total length of all sub-sections to give the weighted average ADT by road. These weighted average AADT flows (classified by HDM vehicle type) were then listed in a single sheet by road number. The final stage was to combine the list of international and regional roads and then to sort them in order of descending total AADT which can then be used to fix the thresholds of flow ranges for the HDM network assessment and therefore to calculate the average AADT by road category.
3.
3.1.
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3.2.
3.2.1. Basic Road Analysis Results The table below summarises the condition of the surveyed roads by intensity of cracking. As will be noted, only few of the roads are without cracks. Further as can be seen on the figures presented below, this cracking appears to start within a few years of reconstruction or resurfacing. A major issue regarding the reliability of the analysis is that the data on location of works relays on lists of approved contracts, as provided by the Road Fund and this information may not be accurately overlaid on the road condition data, even after its correction. It is interesting to note that if only a limited percentage of roads are severely or completely cracked, many roads are in process of cracking. This would be an indication that deterioration has started on most roads, and intervention would be required to maintain the asset value and the road conditions for limited investment. Delaying interventions will irremediably result in a need for more important works.
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Table 23: Summary of Pothole Intensity (number of Potholes/km) for Surveyed Roads
Road 4P1 4P12 4P2 4P20 4P29 4P45 4P87 A373 A376 A377 A378 A379 A380 M34 M37 M39 M41 ALL 0 (no potholes) 83.4% 95.5% 40.6% 30.4% 10.1% 58.1% 50.7% 40.7% 29.3% 2.4% 23.1% 56.5% 24.1% 47.3% 48.1% 40.1% 32.0% 41.6% 1 (up to10/km) 16.6% 4.5% 35.6% 29.2% 63.7% 18.1% 10.5% 32.3% 58.5% 32.4% 71.6% 34.0% 61.4% 33.9% 29.9% 32.2% 66.0% 41.7% 2 (10 to 40/km) 0.0% 0.0% 18.2% 31.4% 18.2% 23.8% 16.1% 14.9% 12.2% 62.9% 5.3% 9.4% 10.6% 13.3% 18.5% 16.7% 0.0% 13.6% 3 (Over40/km) 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 8.9% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.1% 3.5% 5.6% 2.8% 1.9% 2.0% 3.0%
3.2.2. Calibration Results This section shows the rate of crack and pothole development following 2 categories of work, namely rehabilitation/reconstruction and mid term repair (periodic maintenance). The adopted differentiation between the two categories of work was as follows: Rehabilitation/Reconstruction = Works costing more than USD 200,000 per (2 lane) kilometre; and Mid Term Repair/light rehabilitation = Works costing from USD 35,000 to 200,000 per kilometre, typically around USD 65,000 per kilometre.
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Factors that have influenced the calibration analysis include: Significant variations in pavement structure and asphalt concrete thickness - actual pavement thickness data was not available for most road sections; Limited historical works data - data largely limited to the period between 2007 and 2009, although some data was available back to 1999; Routine maintenance and repair (RMR) programs (for which details are not readily available) would normally fill cracks and potholes quickly. As RMR is under funded, it is possible that the effects of this program on the analysis results may be minimal; A lack of details on the works actually carried out made it impossible to take into account into the analysis the variations in works performed; and The results of the calibration analysis are presented in the following summary table and some graphical plots: Table 21 showing the Summary of calibration analysis for cracking and pot holes; Figure 9 showing the Crack development following midterm repair/light rehabilitation (based on average figures); Figure 10 showing the Crack development following midterm repair/light rehabilitation (based on average plus standard deviation); and Figure 11 showing the Crack development following rehabilitation/reconstruction (based on average plus one standard deviation of records); The rate of deterioration of potholes can also be seen in the summary table below. The above Tables show ratings and not actual area / length or % of surface area. The ratings for the cracking and potholes are defined as follows:
Crack Rating
0 = 0% cracking; 1 = 1 to 10% cracking; 2 = 11 to 30% cracking, 3 = 31 to 50% cracking 4 = more than 50% cracking.
Pothole Rating
0 = 0% cracking; 1 = 1 to 10 potholes/km; 2 = 11 to 40 potholes/km cracking; 3 = more than 40 potholes per kilometre.
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It is interesting to see that the crack progression, globally, would mean that 10-year old roads should be cracked by a little less than 30%. This result has to be combined with the analysis of extend of cracking presented in the previous section. The standard variation around the average is an indication regarding the reliability of the analysis.
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No significant difference can be seen between the cracking progression avec simple periodic overlays (mid-term repairs) and the rehabilitation / reconstruction works. In recent years the tendency would be even the contrary of technical expected results, and reconstruction performing worse than overlays. Amongst other reasons (insufficient design of reconstructions, preventive overlays? different traffic classes and loads, etc) this could highlight the bad quality of the present works, as older pavements seem to have longer lives then the present constructions.
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4.
4.1.
Roughness survey
General
The roughness survey was conducted between late March 2010 and the third week of April 2010. During these weeks, the survey teams carried out roughness measurements on the Pilot Road Network of approximately 4000 km (Refer to list in Section 1 above). The survey recorded the distances between the location reference points established during the condition survey as well as the roughness along the target roads. The results of the surveys are summarised below and are presented in more detail in Appendix E. During the survey, unfortunately, some data was lost on the last sections, as the Roughometer accelerometer did not give correct responses. The missing data was substituted in the analysis by the spring surveys from Uzavtoyul. Following the defects, the Consultants contacted ARRB to send the equipment for repair, as part of the warranty. However, being Road Fund property, the Road Fund needed to sign the appropriate documents for a temporary export of the defect parts. This procedure is required to allow future re-import without additional delays in customs clearance. At the time of writing of the report, the request for customs clearance had not yet been submitted.
4.2.
The analysis is confirmed when looking at the distribution of roughness in quality classes for all roads: Table 26 : Summary of Roughness Distribution on the Surveyed Roads
IRI Range Road length (Km) % MSHN 14-2005 Criteria International Criteria Highways Good Good/Acceptable Acceptable/Unacceptable Unacceptable Unacceptable Unacceptable Unacceptable Unacceptable
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5.
Deflection Survey
5.1.1. General The deflection testes were carried out in beginning of April 2010, after the thaw period, when the pavement temperature exceeded 25C. The method and exact location of tests is presented in detail in the Appendix E. The aim of the testing, which was limited in scope because of the limited funding and time was to get an appreciation of the structural adequacy of pavements, in different condition states, as reported in the condition surveys. The other reason for conducting the surveys was to see whether the flexibility of the pavement was such that it was impacting on the performance of the asphalt surfacing layers. The measured deflections as reported in the Figure below would suggest that pavement flexibility is excessive (> 0.7 mm average) for asphalt concrete and this is no doubt contributing to the more rapid rate of deterioration of the asphalt layers. All surveys where carried out on a selection of pavements in the Tashkent Oblast, to avoid travelling for a limited number of spots. On 5 specific spots on M39 the pavement type consisted of cement concrete slabs with asphalt overlay, all other pavements where full depth bituminous constructions in different types of condition. 5.1.2. Data Analysis The deflection figures given below are the characteristic deflections calculated for 0.5 kilometre road sections. The deflections were measured in the outer wheel path of the outer lane, at 100 metre intervals (6 readings per 0.5 km section). The characteristic deflection was determined by taking the average plus 1.5 times the standard deviation of the 6 readings. If the mean plus 2 standard deviations were adopted as is other the done for major roads the characteristics deflections would be 12 to 15% higher. A summary of the test data on the asphalt sections is presented in the Figure below. Figure 16 : Distribution of the deflection values over the asphalt concrete pilot sections
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Although it is difficult to base some evidence on the limited number of trials, it can be seen that deflections are generally high, sometimes even excessively high. When assuming that for a full bituminous pavement (general thickness of asphalt exceed 20 cm on Uzbek roads of this category and class) 0.8 mm would the highest acceptable limit before intervention, the figure shows that over 1/3rd of the tested pavements would require some periodic maintenance (overlay) or strengthening.
For the concrete sections, the values ranged from 0.29 mm to 1.01 mm. These values are surprisingly high for concrete slabs and are proving that the slabs are now broken and working like (sometimes even deteriorated) cement treated sub-base. This evidence was useful when trying to model those pavements in HDM-4.
6.
6.1.
Axle Loads
Importance of Axle Loading
Axle load surveys were carried out on the M39 Tashkent Gizak road at KP 872 some 70km south of Tashkent at the GAI post at the border between Tashkent and Sirdariya Oblasts on 26 and 27 April 2010. The Appendix G of the report describes in detail the equipment used, the survey methodology and the analysis of the survey data, whilst the section hereafter only gives the main results. In the HDM model, the vehicle damage factor (VDF) is a measure of damage caused to the pavement by a heavy vehicle and is a function of the axle configuration and the mass. The standard axle load for a dual wheel single axle is 80KN (approximately 8.16 tonnes) and the HDM documentation recommends that different values of standard load are used depending on the axle configuration. The recommended standard axle loads (SXj) for different axle configurations are set out below: Table 27 Recommended Standard Axle Loads for Different Axle Configurations Axle Type Single Wheel Single Axle Dual Wheel Single Axle Single Wheel Per Tandem Axle Group Dual Wheel Per Tandem Axle Group Single Wheel Per Triple Axle Group Dual Wheel Per Triple Axle Group Configuration 12 14 24 28 36 312 SX (tonnes) 6.60 8.16 12.20 15.10 19.80 22.90
SOURCE: CONSULTANTS ESTIMATES BASED ON HDM DOCUMENTATION CONCERNING RUE MODEL CALIBRATION.
There are several important points to note with regard to the vehicle damage factor (VDF). Because of the 4th power for the exponent in the VDFVEH equation, the VDF must be calculated as the average VDF per vehicle and not as the VDF for a vehicle with an average mass. The average VDF is always higher than the VDF of the average load. The VDF is the sum of all axle load factors for all axle groups of a vehicle, not the damage factor of the average axle load. The VDF must represent the average VDF of all vehicles in the class in the traffic, inclusive of empty, partially loaded, fully loaded and over-loaded vehicles. The aim of the axle load surveys was therefore to determine the VDF for each of the selected seven vehicle types.
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6.2.
Survey results
A total of more than 350 vehicles (trucks, buses and minibuses) were either weighed or interviewed during the two days of surveys on 26 and 27 April 2010. The final adjusted results of the axle load surveys are shown in the table on the following page. The table includes the average gross vehicle weights loaded and unloaded, the average load and the average operating weight. The table also includes ESA loaded, unloaded and average as well as the damage factor expressed in terms of ESA per 100 tonnes load. The resultant loading inputs to HDM-4 are summarised in the table below. Table 28 Summary of Final Loading Inputs to HDM-4 for the Fleet in Uzbekistan
Vehicle Category Passenger Car Minibus Bus Light Truck 2 Axle Truck 3 Axle Truck >3 Axle Truck
Operating Weight (tonnes) 1.30 3.40 14.16 3.67 7.50 14.76 29.66
SOURCE: CONSULTANTS ESTIMATES BASED ON AXLE LOAD SURVEYS CARRIED OUT ON 26 AND 27 APRIL 2010
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Vehicle Type
Average ESA
Minibus Bus (a) Light Truck 2 Axle Truck 3 Axle Truck >3 Axle Truck (b)
10 22 2 6 7 39
2 3 4 19
10 22 4 9 11 58
0 0 0 46 20 21
0 24 12 10
0 0 0 70 32 31
(a) Average ESA for buses is the overall average for all the sample of weighed vehicles (b) Includes all articulated trucks, truck-trailers and >3 axle trucks (c) Adjusted proportion of loaded trucks based on overall average results of OD Surveys November-December 2009.
Source: Consultants Estimates based on Axle Load Surveys carried out on 26 and 27 April 2010 and OD Surveys November-December 2009.
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Chapter 8 - Training
1.
1.1.
1.1.2. Technical seminars in the Design Bureau Two specific seminars were organised by and for the Design Institute, with the particular aim to familiarise the project designers with new technologies and methods that would be of particular interest in Uzbekistan. Some engineers were already acquainted with recent technologies, and it seems that their introduction is mostly hindered by hindered by administrative issues: approval and introduction of new standards, certification and import of recent equipment, lack of funds and strategy for research and development, to detailed and conservative expertise and approval of projects, not allowing proposals to divert from existing practice. The technical seminars focussed mainly on 2 important technologies: the use of sprayed seals, in various forms, to upgrade the existing practice of surface dressing, that is currently existing but not extensively used due to down-run equipment and low quality outputs, the use of recycling as part of rehabilitation technologies.
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1.1.3. Workshop on Service level agreements On 4 of June the Consultants organised a common workshop for staff from Road Fund and Uzavtoyul on the specific issues of Service Level Agreements. The projects highway Engineer M. Zachara gave a presentation on experience regarding performance based contracts and service level agreements in Western countries, including Australia. The main features and pre-conditions for such contracts can be summarised as follows: The main precondition is that available funding is linked and adequate for the maintenance standard that is specified; During the contract, a quoted price per kilometre per year is paid monthly when the specified maintenance standards are achieved; The works are inspected on completion and invoice paid within a specified period; The contractor takes over additional roles and responsibilities To prepare the road work program; To control its quality; To choose the right treatment as it will be his risk if the selection is wrong and early repair is required. Several types of contracts are possible, from short-term (3 years) and limited scope (road side maintenance only) to long-term contracts (about 10 years), where periodic maintenance and rehabilitation are also part of the scope of work of the contractor. All contracts include also a traditional Bill of Quantity, for unforeseen works, or works that are difficult to be specified as a lump sum. For Uzbekistan, the participants agreed that the principle would be a step forward, but stressed on the limited possibilities of introducing such contracts, within the present regulatory frame. The major discussion between the stakeholders was that currently, only identified defects are funded, not defects that were likely to occur during the next year, and therefore, there is a systematic routine maintenance backlog. Whilst all parties agreed on the issues, the possible way out of it was not clear. Preparation of a simplified administrative frame and implementation of a pilot trial were seen as the necessary and suitable steps to move ahead.
th
1.2.
Institutional workshop
On 17 June, the ADB organised a workshop on recommended institutional reform, targeted for all stakeholders of the Road Sector, with presentations from the consultants. Participants of stakeholder ministries attended this workshop, but without representation from government bodies. The Consultants presented during this workshop their proposals and recommendations as detailed in Chapter 4 above and in the Appendix B1 and B2 on institutional reform. The main conclusions of the presentations were:
th
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The fact that there is a need for a Road Agency/ Authority clarifying responsibilities was acknowledged by the participants The Proposal for reform was understood as being twofold to : Transform / Strengthen Uzavtoyul as an Road Authority To strengthen the Road Funds Policy Role whilst reverting to its core attributions As an adjunct, the Road Assets should not be within Uzavtoyul The Consultants also mentioned that there is no need for a large Ministry now, but the Road Sector could gain from a small Transport Committee in charge of the cross-modal policy A planning unit, whilst required, may be best located outside RF (inside or next to the policy maker). The workshop concluded that more discussions were needed in order to prepare a proposal, common to all stakeholders for the review of the government. ADB stressed on the importance of the institutional reform to accompany the important investments it supports. The consultants proposed to have another presentation of institutional reform, for all interested staff members of the road fund during the last project period, but the idea was still under consideration at the time of writing the report.
1.3.
Participants agreed after discussions to points raised by the consultants: That the present system of financial control is rigid and imposes many constraints on the contractor without necessarily improving quality. That the development of private contractors and consultant companies would be beneficial to raise standards in the road construction and maintenance. That more daily supervision is needed and that there would be a role for private sector.
2.
2.1.
HDM-training
In house HDM-4 seminar
The first HDM-4 training seminar took place between and 14 and 25 December 2009. It was open to other institutions and invited participants included delegates from the Road Research Institute and the Design Bureau.
th th
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The trainees had been informed that they should bring their laptops. Actually, only three of them did, and additional computers were provided by the Project. Training was delivered in English, with a translation into Russian. The slides were presented in Russian. The schedule of training seminar was 14h 18h, with a break. The attendance was a concern the first three days. The main reason appeared to be that the trainees didnt realise what the training seminar really was, and that they should be present the entire training seminar through. 11 trainees attended at least one day, but only 5 of them have been present more than 8 days, only one being present the full session (10 days). Those trainees were: Sergey Vovchenko Ilkhom Ismatov (Research Institute) Makhamat Isaev (Research Institute) Bakhrom Appanov (Design Bureau) Komil Tulaganov (Design Bureau) In addition, a second Road Fund participant, Pulat Alimov participated few days, but very successfully. As has been repeated in the institutional part of the report, the consultants opinion is that the HDM-4 capabilities should not be limited to the Road Fund staff, but rather shared with other specialised institution. From this point of view, the staff trained would fill this objective. It is proposed that the external staff that attended the first session successfully should also participate in the final session. Training format was similar to training sessions that are delivered by PFE (one of the official HDM Global partners) in Paris. The trainees are distributed a booklet that describe the exercises that will be studied during the sessions. All HDM-4 facilities are illustrated by examples coming from a dummy country, but based upon real case studies. The trainees are also distributed a hard copy of the slides presented. All these documents were written in Russian. The solutions of all exercises was also translated into Russian and distributed to trainees after the courses. The trainees have as well been given in an electronic form the comprehensive folder that includes text of the exercises, input data, text of solutions, slides, HDM-4 workspaces, all this in English. With the V2.05 demo version, trainees are able to go through all exercises and check their knowledge. Considering the time available and the constraints of the translation into Russian, it was decided to limit slide presentation to the absolute necessary. Only slide sets 1-Introduction, 2-Model description, 8-Bituminous road deterioration, and 9-Calibration were presented. Emphasis was put on hands-on exercises.
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Configuration Vehicle Fleet Sections Works standards input Works standards input Study definition Runs
Monday 21
Exercise 2, calibration Section data input Calibration factors calculation Exercise 3, Project analysis Road Network import Works standards input, Study definition Results analysis ,Sensitivity analysis Exercise 4, Project analysis : construction New construction standard input Study definition Diverted traffic input
Runs and results analysis
Tuesday 22 Wednesday 23
Thursday 24
Friday 25
Exercise 5 Programme analysis Works standards input Study definition, Results analysis
Training evaluation
At the end of the training, an evaluation form was filled by the trainees (attached to the projects interim report). The global conclusion is rather satisfactory. From the point of view of the trainer, it appears that the main problems are the English language skills. For many of the trainees, HDM-4 user interface was difficult to understand and even to read. HDM-4 concepts and computer use were NOT a problem. It is unlikely that HDM-4 can be of common use if there is no Russian version, and if the aim of its use is not accepted by decision makers.
2.2.
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The structure of the HDM-4 training course is very close to the training that the project organised in December, as it also alternates theoretical presentations with practical exercises. It is however limited to 5 days, which is certainly insufficient to be able to autonomously work with HDM-4. The programme is given below. Table 31 : HDM-4 training course in TRL, summarised programme
Day Monday 17 Lectures HDM-4 Overview Adaptation & Configuration Vehicle Fleet Road Networks Analytical Applications RD&RUE Models Calibration of RUE and Road Deterioration Economic Analysis Energy & Emissions Multi-criteria Analysis Programme Analysis Concepts Strategy Analysis Concepts Implementation of HDM-4 with Road Management Systems Hands on exercises Exercise 1: Creating Vehicle Fleets Creating Road Networks Exercise 2: Maintenance and Improvement standards Exercise 3 & 4: Project Case Studies Exercise 5: Calibration
Tuesday 18
Wednesday 19
Thursday 20 Friday 21
Exercise 6: Programme Analysis Case Study Exercise 7: Strategy Analysis Case Study
Both trainees were very satisfied with the course. Both Participants had a good overview of all facilities of the software and gained knowledge to be able to make a critical review of a HDM-4 study. This would be particularly useful for the PIU as it may deal further with international financed project using HDM-4 during feasibility studies. Because of his initial participation in the December workshop, Sergey Vovchenko had more experience operating the software, and is probably today the most competent end-user inside the Road Fund.
2.3.
2.3.1. Logistics The training seminar took place in the meeting room of the Road Fund, second floor. The overhead projector was provided by the PIU. A paper board and the pens were provided by the Project. On Tuesday, the room was not available and the training took place in the Amphitheater, 3rd floor. At start of training session, HDM-4 version 2.05 was installed on available computers. The unlock codes provided by TRL were effective until Saturday 24.
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2.3.2. Training material Data input screens hardcopies were prepared to help in data input. These hardcopies were provided for Sections, Maintenance standards, Improvement standards. Comments in Russian were added for a better understanding. These documents were also distributed in an electronic form at the end of the training session.
2.3.3. Training agenda, attendance and program Training was delivered in English, with a translation into Russian. The schedule of training seminar was 14h 18h, with a break. Actually, training session started most of the time between 14h15 and 14h30. Last day, the training session was scheduled in the morning, 9h30 13h. 4 people attended regularly, and got a certificate at the end of the seminar. Unfortunately, only one participant of the Road Fund attended all sessions. Participants from the Design Buro joined the course and successfully participated. Table 32: HDM-4 Model - Training session, 19 23 JULY 2010 - Attendance 19-07 20-07 21-07 Name Affiliation , Sergey X X X Vovchenko Finance department, Republican Road Fund - , X X Foyaz Chief Specialist, Design Bureau Bekmuhamedov (Uyul-Loiha Burosi Ltd) .. - H.Z.Gulomova Design Bureau (Uyul-Loiha Burosi X X X Ltd) .. - A.B.Surapov Design Bureau (Uyul-Loiha Burosi X X X Ltd) , X Abduhakim PIU, Republican Road Fund Djumankulov . , , X Golib Ahatov Republican Road Fund Contract Department
22-07
23-07
The RMS software, installation disk and data were also part of the CD Data handover submitted to the Road Fund on 23rd of July. The RMS software was installed during the last training course on the computers of the participants and A special session was dedicated to the RMS training (the software is quite easy to use) on Wednesday 21rst July. Unfortunately, during that day, the only present staff member of the Road Fund was S. Vovchenko. On his quite old personal laptop, the installation did not succeed, but he followed the steps of all data manipulation and export to HDM. The trainees from design office have completed the installation of the software and the database.
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2.3.4. Training evaluation An evaluation form was filled by the trainees. A summary of the filled forms is attached below. The global conclusion is rather satisfactory. From the trainers point of view, only Sergey Vovchenko, who has followed all 3 training sessions, in Tashkent and TRL is currently able to complete a quality HDM analysis. All other participants have a good overview and will be able to make critical analysis of projects, but are not sufficiently acquainted with the software to be fully operational.
2 ? 2 - What is your global appreciation on seminar contents and learning? Very satisfactory
Insufficient New vocabulary and concepts Working methods Practical knowledge Balance between lectures and hands-on exercises
Average
Satisfactory
0 0 0
1 0 0
3 2 1 1
0 2 3 3
3 ? 3 - How do you rate seminar organisation? Satisfactory Too short Too long
Duration
0
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Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
Coordination and management Discussions with trainer Documentation Learning room Organisation and logistics Welcome and availability of people
Satisfactory
Insufficient
4
Satisfactory
0
Too short Too long
4
Satisfactory
0
Insufficient
4
Adapted
0
Not adapted
4
Satisfactory
0
Insufficient
4
Satisfactory
0
Insufficient
4 , , ? 4 - Which topics, not mentioned during training, would you have liked to be? Impact of budget constraints on construction and routine maintenance works To have practical exercises on example of existing roads (for instance M-39 or A380) would be useful; And such exercises would be useful for 2010 real year. Method and approaches of European designers; how they work and which software they use.
3.
3.1.
Position
Deputy General Director (Finance) Deputy General Director (Technical) Head of Expenditures Project Implementation Unit (responsible for projects with international financing)
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Deputy Head of the Service for Works Programming Deputy Head of the Service for Works Supervision Head of Accounting Services Deputy Head of Accounting Services
The group was accompanied by John Worthington, Specialist on Transport Economics and also Nargiza Khoshimova, Translator. The Study Tour comprised a series of technical visits in France and Germany and the programme of visits was developed in close consultation between Alexandra Spernol (Team Leader) and the staff of the Road Fund. Appendix 7 to the draft final report issued end of June has summarised the content and presentations of the visits. Table 34 : Programme of the study tour Date Day 31-mai Monday Tuesday 01-juin 13h30 Wednesday 02-juin 9h30 Wednesday 02-juin 14h00 Thursday 03-juin 9h30 Friday 04-juin 10h00 05-juin Saturday 06-juin Sunday Topic Arrival VECTRA (company dealing with road surveys) Visit of EGIS-BCEOM (Consultant) French Ministry of Transport and Road Directorate (Paris) Weight in Motion Site (Sterela - Toulouse) transfer to Aix Road & Bridges Databases & Planning, GIS (TWS) Transfer to Paris FREE Cofiroute (private motorway operator) A10 maintenance operations centre, toll collection, PPP A86 / Vinci FREE transfer to Cologne BAST (German National Road Research centre), PMS&BMS Visit location La Verrire (Paris suburb) St. Quentin (Paris suburb) Paris La Dfense Pins Justaret (Toulouse) Aix les Milles
Monday 07-juin 9h00 Tuesday 08-juin 9h30 09-juin Wednesday Thursday 10-juin 9h00
Svres then St. Arnoult (Paris region) Reuil-Malmaison (Paris suburb) Bergisch Gladbach (near Cologne)
Private Operation & Concession of a 11-juin Friday 9h00 concrete motorway A8 12-juin Saturday FREE 13-juin Sunday Departure to Tashkent
Dasing (Munich)
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
1.
Introduction
The implementation of a long-term programme of systematic network condition surveys and administration of this data is subordinated to the definition of a clear strategy regarding this task (and the tasks of a planning Unit, located in the RF or elsewhere, as discussed in previous chapters of the report). It is also conditioned to the actual storage mean (i.e. the database software that is required to store and analyse the survey data) and its management. Almost all actors of the road sector interviewed during the project were supporting the digitising of the road information. Indeed, many data on the network and its condition are actually available, but in disseminated places and in various paper forms. Therefore, the move towards an integrated data base system should not be questioned for the mid-term. Issues raised during the present assignment, but not yet solved include the following: Location of the actual unit administrating the data base and the surveys (this unit could and should be different of the planning unit of the road fund). The consultants suggested using the Transport Resource Group to be created for this issue, or alternatively Research institute or design bureau. Structure of the database, in particular the involvement of the regions (the 13 oblast offices of Uzavtoyul and the 7 Magistrals) and the possibility of creating a client-server structure with a network, possibly web-based application, giving web-access to various types of users. Specifications for a full data base, regarding the location system to be adopted for the country, the type of data to be collected and stored, and the output results expected, etc It is expected that much of the functions of the database would be similar to the pilot data base developed under the project. These questions will modify significantly the scope, duration and cost of the system, including its maintenance and operations cost later on, should be answered before a project dealing with these issued is initiated.
2.
2.1.
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
and time. Similarly, it is important the management systems concentrate on the collected data, rather then developing large systems, with unreliable or absent data. The initial task would be to survey all the roads not already surveyed (38540 km) to populate the road database. This would be followed in later years by annual surveys (to update the data) which would survey a percentage of the road network. The percentage surveyed is dependent on the condition of the road network and on the rate of change in condition. Where road conditions are largely good and pavement deterioration is slow and road managers fully understand the rate of deterioration the percentage that needs to be surveyed annually is small. When the reverse is true the percentage to be surveyed is much higher (estimate will be made after the collected data is analysed). Also discussed is an alternate survey program that could be implemented immediately by modifying existing surveys conducted by the Research Institute in Uzavtoyul. This could be implemented and used to provide valuable data until the road management system is fully operational.
2.2.
Note: It is important that a database is kept up to data at all times, otherwise, the data reliability is questioned and the data base cannot be trusted. It may as well not exist.
Irrespective of the location of the database and RMS, which logically should be the future URA, approved users of the database (viewing access only) should include the RF, the Oblast level management organisations and the Rayon Based Maintenance Enterprises (where they are involved in the network management and have internet access). Data collection could initially be outsourced to specialist consultants (foreign consultants working with local partners). Later annual surveys could be outsourced to local consultants. Regional Managers should be involved in all surveys and be trained in all aspects of data collection and database usage and analysis as they are best placed to ensure surveys are carried out. It is not proposed that the future URA or Road Fund should carry out any surveys themselves, but the strategy is rather to contract specialised organisations that are equipped with the suitable equipment and are organised to used and maintain this equipment. Organisations - that could include but not be limited to the laboratories already operating in the research and design institute should procure, operate and maintain the required equipment from their fees.
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Road Condition and Inventory The road network managed by Uzavtoyul and the RF totals 42540 km of which 20529 km are International and State Roads. The survey completed by the project has completed a condition assessment of the International roads and also some State roads. Given that is has taken approximately 2 months (by 2 teams) to complete the inventory and condition of the 4000 km a total of 39 survey team months would be required for the remaining 38540 km. The first phase could start with the State road network, consisting of approximately 17000 km and would take approximately 17 team months (approximately 4 months if 4 teams are used). If additional precision is required (as should be for a full re-inventory of the road network), it is recommended that AT LEAST precision odometers are used, but better still GPS equipment, to prepare for future precision mapping of the network and GIS use. Whilst the duration of the survey would be not much extended, the time and resources allocation for the data processing should be increased. Visual condition surveys (preferably using semi-automatic recording of defects, with use of computer and keyboard inside the car, linked to the distance meter to record the defects) however would still be the base of the pavements condition assessment. After initial inventory, the road condition recording would be repeated yearly (or every 2-3 years) whilst inventory survey should be carried out at about 10 year intervals. Geometry Geometry details can be measured using sophisticate equipment (like the GPS), be established from maps or design drawings or be assessed in the field as has been done in the survey carried out by the project team when surveying 4000 km of International roads. The latter can be seen in the field sheets included in Appendix E. The data that describes the vertical and also the horizontal alignment in terms of classes have been included in the pilot road database. This information would be sufficient for road asset management purposes. For complete re-inventory of the network, more precise surveys may be recommended. Roughness Data Roughness surveys should be carried out at the same time by a separate team using Roughometer or other modern devices including necessarily a trip meter. This survey task is carried out more quickly and can be completed in approximately 5 months (1 survey team) for the whole network. The data requirements are not more detailed as the data already collected for the 4000 km under this project, for which survey the details are included in Appendix E, but use should be made from modern equipment. Traffic Traffic volumes and classifications are presently collected by the Rayons a number of times per year. The data consists of classified counts which can be corrected to produce AADTs using factors that are included in the Traffic normative. Either a traffic database with the detailed traffic information is linked to the road database and would contain the corrected data as classified counts, or the traffic data is directly introduced inside the road database, as this has been done for the pilot database.
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Similarly data should be collected on axle loads. This could be collected separately (manual axle load measurement surveys) or using weigh in motion weighing equipment which not only records the weight of vehicles but also traffic volumes by vehicle type and also travel speeds. There is a definite need to improve traffic data collection and data management through the implementation of automatic traffic counters. There is no possible Road Asset Management without knowledge of the road conditions on one side, and the road use on the other. The aim of implementation of automatic counters would be to better characterise the traffic in Uzbekistan, possibly by regions, and to establish a system of analysis and reporting that would provide data for use by planners and designers. During the study tour, the participants were introduced to the current existing technology that is used all over the world, and can be bought through tenders of the shelf. Automatic counters do not only provide data with better reliability (the Uzavtoyul traffic counts are generally limited to 2 hour counts, meaning the statistical error could be very large) but also provide data on hourly, daily and seasonal flows which are at the present time completely unknown. As a matter of fact, Uzbekistan seems to be one of the very few countries that have not yet implemented any automatic counting stations. Countries in the region as Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan have done so in previous years. Implementation of automatic counters should be done in 3 steps: pilot project on international roads with a limited number of stations, to learn about the technology generalisation to at least the whole republican network with a large number of counters Eventual expansion of the functionalities of the system to integrate Weight in Motion. Before starting the project regarding implementation of traffic automatic counters it is important that the client has a determined view on the two following questions: What are the traffic data that are required for the Asset Management, and to what precision? This would determine the type of equipment (and its cost), in particular the definition of number of points to be installed with fixed counters, and the number of mobile / temporary counters Who is going to manage the counters? In recent years, the management of the traffic counters has been more and more delegated to the specialised company, that implement the counters, maintain and repair them, but are paid on a results based output, i.e. monthly and annual reporting on the traffic of the network. This has been successfully implemented in countries like Brazil, with large networks, and has been found to resolve the generally problem of badly maintained counters, untimely delivery of reports and general lax data management. Pavement Strength Characteristics The HDM4 model uses pavement deflection (8.2 axle loads) and/or structural number which is calculated form the thickness of the pavements and the sub-grade characteristics. The source of this data would include: Rayons maintenance enterprises - they should be able to provide close approximations of the pavement structure and possibly sub-grade soils classes/types; The Road Research Institute - would have some data on pavement structure, deflection and soil types for approximately 600 km of A380 and possible other similar data from past investigations; Uzavtoyul / Rayon maintenance enterprises - they could collect pavement details and past treatments from Passports; Road Design Institute and consultants - could also have relevant soil, pavement thickness and deflections.
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
Educated assumptions would need to be made where detailed data is not readily available. The recommended - more expensive but only reliable - long-term solution would be to procure FWD (Falling Weight Deflectometer) or equivalent (like Russian Dyna-3M), in sufficient number to Uzbekistan (to Road Research Institute, Design Institute Laboratory, or private operators) to create a multi-annual programme of systematic strength assessment of the network. Maintenance and Improvement Works Construction and maintenance works will alter the condition and the characteristics of pavements and also their performance. The road management system and database(s) will need to have a facility for documenting these changes and also the new physical and condition road characteristics. Data sources would include the road works schedule produced by the RF and also design documentation produced by consultants who should be required to submit, with their design documentation, the changed road characteristics in a format that can be directly imported into the road management by the road data managers. One of the core tasks of the data base manager will be to provide an annual update of the pavements included into the database, taking into account all periodic and capital maintenance, as well as improvements. Only this will allow maintaining the database with reliable and updated information.
2.3.
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
If not done already (field data records have not been sighted to date) it is recommended that the work needs identification process be modified as follows: Area of ravelling be recorded; Bitumen condition is assessed for surfacing that has not cracked; Defects to be recorded for each kilometre. The analysis of defects data would show how defects; such as cracking, ravelling and potholes/failures/patches where changing with time (show trends). The record of worsening conditions will indicate when more significant works are required. Costing of the repair works in past years and the repair work need in the current year will put a money value that could be used to demonstrate the need for more significant works. A maintenance management system (MMS) which tracks and costs all identified repair works would be useful in doing the above. The system would not only assist the Rayon based maintenance enterprises to manage their work but would also cost the work carried out and manage resources.
3.
Once the above tools are in place, a road maintenance organisation (Uzavtoyul today or URA in future) would have the data and analysis tools required to effectively monitor costs, performance of maintenance units, and also road conditions (refer to details below). Significant improvements in management and cost effective utilization would then be possible. The system would also enable monitoring of decisions taken during works planning and work quality. Both of these are key elements to improving road management and maintenance operations. Like time, development in technologies and methods do not stand still. Also problems in Uzbekistan are not unique which means that there are solutions, developed internationally which have possible applications in Uzbekistan. Whilst it is evident that individuals in the road sector are following developments, there is no well defined system or budget for research and development (R&D) or implementation of up-to-date systems. This needs to change, with the understanding that much could be gained in terms of future cost by promoting efficient asset management.
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
3.1.
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
This is done in Autumn and plan adjusted the following spring Done now using a manual system
List of defects and priority for completion of each defect for works planning Weekly and monthly summaries of resources used
Weekly reports are used by maintenance managers and monthly reports are required by the client for payment purposes. Production rates and unit costs are not calculated presently. Time to fix defects is not systematically recorded.
Output from RMMS would allow categorization to be done manually or in a spreadsheet or in a special module. Existing daily reports of defects completed and resources used on each defect are entered directly into RMMS. Once entered the defect is removed from the defect list. This is a standard feature of RMMS Standard output with priority (indicated by the standards being used) shown against each defect. Time left to complete the defect to comply with the standard is also indicated These summaries are a standard feature
Reporting of production rates and unit costs for each maintenance team. Reporting of time between defect identification and defect repair (response times) Report of all defects for each km on each road Report of current status of defects Performance rating of road maintenance operation and road network
Reports are standard feature. Response times calculations are a standard feature
Neither is done by PMS. PMS needs this data to model pavement deterioration
Information is collated from various records Data is manually held. Reports and summaries take time to prepare. This is done 2 times per year using data collected in spring and autumn. Calculation is manual.
Not done by PMS. PMS needs this data Not done by PMS.
Defect status reports are a standard feature. Not a standard feature but data exists in the system to do this and output could easily be used to determine a performance rating. The performance rating could also be extended to include factors for unit costs and response time, presently not possible. Standard feature.
Report on average actual cost of maintenance works by road and per kilometre
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
RMMS Data available for routine planning. Previous years defect reports and expenditure when used with the current years situation as reported in October would provide planners with an idea what is required in the next 2 to 3 years. With 3 or more years of historical data some of this decision making could be automated.
Good because better quality data is used (defects are identified in detail). Also the engineer uses a wide range of indicators when making decisions.
Long-term network maintenance and development strategies Development of deterioration progression curves Economic evaluation of maintenance strategies Effect of budget limitations on network conditions Preventive maintenance planning
Not done
PMS (HDM4 based) PMS needs condition data to be collected or the autumn/spring data to be entered into the database to be aggregated before the PMS could process the data. Historical data is required to calibrate the PMS. Data held in an RMMS would be the best source of data for calibration PMS (using HDM4) uses aggregated data for a broader type of programming. It does not model all defects or early indicators of upcoming maintenance problems. Standard feature
Not done
Not done
Standard feature
Not done
Data exists to do this. Decision rules (defect definition and response times) developed as part of the RMMS ensure that key problems are dealt with quickly.
3.2.
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
3.3.
3.4.
Other Systems
These include a mixture of process, procedures with some computer support. Full RAMS would cover a range of system, but two key systems identified by the Consultants are as follows: Quality management (from planning to design to final acceptance) - objective is to optimise the use of resources at all levels by making sure that the funds are allocated to the right projects at the right time and that the works are done to an acceptable standard; and Works inspection and supervision - ensure that key elements of the works process are checked in detail and not rely just on looking at the final product. This would in particular cover the monitoring of works performance in a systematic way so quality can be assessed along the execution and cause (could be design) of the problem can be established. Longer warranty periods for the more significant works (from mid term repairs to construction) could also be part of an improved quality system.
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
4.
2011
2 years
2012 2013
1 year
2012
1 year
First year RMMS Data collection Training for years 2-3 RMMS Operation
2012
1 year
2012
International / Local? Consultant International Consultant Local Consultant with TRG International / Local? Consultant Local Consultant with URA Local Consultant with URA
Data base Manager (URA / TRG?) Data base Manager (TRG) Data base Manager (TRG) Uzavtoyul or URA
Uzavtoyul or URA
Uzavtoyul or URA
*: List of possible current and envisaged institutions: URA : Uzbek Road Authority TRG: Transport Resource Group (Research Institute / Design Institute)
The implementation of the management systems is proposed to happen slightly after the initial surveys and data base implementation, as all management systems will need the core network data to operate. It should not be forgotten that in many Western countries, the way to systematic use of computer aided road asset management took between 5 and 10 years, to develop, implement and efficiently use the systems. Because of previous experience in other countries, it should take less time in Uzbekistan, once the decision to move forward has been taken, but it cannot happen over night.
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
Chapter 10 - Conclusions
The present conclusions to the final report present first the consultants main finding to the report. They then go in some detail in technical issues that were found important for the development of the roads quality, but could not be strictly related to the TOR. The final section contains some recommendations and consultants view on the way forward.
1.
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
2.
2.1.
2.2.
2.3.
their policies and procedures regarding the procurement of consulting and inspection services, ensuring that the team size is adequate and insist on improved services. These should be independently audited to ensure that the roads are properly designed and constructed, to the performance standards expected in developed countries, so that the Client does not hand over roads which start to deteriorate rapidly with defects starting to appear within the first 2 to 3 years.
2.4.
2.4.2. Road Construction and Maintenance Methods Whilst the possible options are extensive, the initial additions and improvements to existing treatments should include those listed below. The authorities in Uzbekistan should look closely at alternative treatments as they are all working effectively and used worldwide from the cold winters of Canada and Russia to the hot climates of Australia and Africa.
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010 Page 114 Version 1
From smaller works, up to more costly and extensive rehabilitation techniques, the consultants would recommend to investigate the following: Sprayed Seals - exist presently but quality is very poor - would be used as a preventive maintenance treatment to renew surface texture, seal the existing surface, stop ravelling and also slow the rate of oxidization of the asphalt layers. Presently used in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Europe, North America, Australia, etc; Slurry/micro-surfacing - as for sprayed seal but used where a smoother texture is required. Used widely in Europe, Russia, Belarus, North America, Southern Africa and Australia; Consider using sprayed (small aggregate) or slurry seals to seal the asphalt surface approximately 4 years after a new asphalt concrete surface has been applied (reconstruction or mid-term maintenance) to slow the rate of deterioration; Improve bitumen quality - through the use of lime as the filler fraction in asphalt concrete or other bitumen modifier. It is recommended here that a full bitumen analysis through a qualified specialised laboratory (like Shell Road Bitumen Laboratory or similar) should be carried out to indicate the best possible modifications. Then it will be possible to modify the bitumen properties with polymer and / or rubber additives. These technologies are used widely worldwide to change performance characteristics of bitumen and asphalt concrete; Introduce geo-textiles in appropriate locations to stop reflective cracking and reduce thermal cracking. Also used worldwide; Introduce in-situ stabilizing as a repair (large) and pavement modifying/recycling treatment when specifying some mid-term maintenance, rehabilitation and reconstruction. Use could be made of the fly ash that is available from the coal fired power stations. Used worldwide to recycle existing pavements. It is understood that recycling of existing pavements has been incorporated, following presentation made by the project team, in the reconstruction of A380, to be funded through an ADB loan; Consider concrete pavement recycling, by rubblizing. This is the alternative (when pavements are old and slabs are moving) to the present technique of overlaying concrete pavements with asphalt concrete. The procedure reduces (crushes) the existing concrete to a high quality aggregate without removing the concrete. It is then compacted before being resurfaced with asphalt concrete.
3.
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
possible initiatives and the over-emphasis on hard copy reporting at a time when more flexile and computer based systems have been implemented elsewhere. The lack of a structured asset management approach that treats roads as an asset and road management as a business The low level of quality of the present works, during all stages of the project, from design to construction and supervision, as developed above. The Consultants strongly believe that the time has come to implement the road sector reform. The current institutions, whilst putting significant energy into the operating of the roads do not achieve the best possible results. The present investment programme ensures a steady revenue to the road industry, making changes in organisation and re-positioning of actors more easily acceptable It is a requirement that the maintenance organisations are reformed when they will take over the newly constructed and improved roads, to ensure sustainability of the investments in the future. Ways forward include: In the first place implementation of appropriate institutional arrangement, with a properly funded and responsible Road Authority. A technical assistance project could be recommended to assist in the further transformation process. Secondly, a large effort into review of standards and methods, materials and execution, to improve the output quality at all levels of the project cycle. Technical assistance would be beneficial for the research into asphalt materials improvement, implementation of quality control / assurance systems, etc Thirdly, a progressive implementation of an asset management system, common to all actors in the road sector, from which the first sub-systems should be on one side the routine maintenance management, and on the other side, the long term planning tool. This would require longer-term technical assistance.
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
Appendix A
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT STRATEGY - FIRST STEP TO COMMERCIALISING AND OUTSOURCING OF ROAD MANAGEMENT
CURRENT SITUATION
ROAD FUND
PROPOSED SITUATION UTILISATION OF SUPERVISION CONSULTANT COMPANIES STEP 1: Utilisation of Supervision Consultant Companies Providing advisory services for the Road Fund Inspectors to improve Quality Control
Maintenance
Construction
Maintenance
Maintenance
Construction
Technical Control / Supervision Consultant Companies: Contract for 2 or 3 years Responsible for 2 -4 Oblasts Undertakes responsibility on behalf of the Road Fund for managing all road maintenance, repair and reconstruction contracts For this initial period of his contract, acts as Assistant and Advisor to RF Inspectors (2/ contract) Maintenance Road Fund Inspector: Contracted by Road Fund to augment the Consultancy Companys supervision contract 2 persons for in each contract: for maintenance and for repair/construction Construction
STEP 2: Complete Integration of Road Fund Inspectors into the Supervision Consultant Companies
ROAD FUND
Technical Control / Supervision Consultant Companies: Contract for 2 or 3 years Responsible for 2 -4 Oblasts Undertakes responsibility on behalf of the Road Fund for managing all road maintenance, repair and reconstruction contracts For this period of his contract, the existing RF Inspectors (19) are transferred out of RF and are EMPLOYED DIRECTLY by the Consultant company with guaranteed employment for 1-2 years
Road Fund Inspector becomes Consultant Inspector Staff: Contracted to Consultant Companies with employment conditions equivalent to RF conditions Guaranteed employment for 1-2 years To receive assimilation training by the Supervision Consultant Company on International Contract Management
STEP 3: FINAL STEP - Assimilation of Road Fund Inspectors under the Supervision Consultant Companies acting as Resident Engineers
ROAD FUND
Remaining control of supervision consultant companies from Road Fund Head quarter inspectors (Appr. 5)
The Road Fund (as The Employer) intends to appoint a qualified Consulting Engineering Company to supervise the technical control services that are concerned with the Road Fund financed annual maintenance and repair programmes as described herein.
Objectives
(i) The overall objectives of the Terms of Reference are to ensure that high quality construction and maintenance programmes are achieved in time and within budget allocations and that all work is carried out in full compliance with the approved engineering designs, technical specifications, agreed work schedule, and are within the terms and conditions of the contract documents and as per sound engineering practices and to raise the level of awareness of the existing technical control inspectors and staff of international procedures in the execution of road works. (ii) The detailed objectives of these services are to commercialise and ultimately to privatise the supervision and control for routine maintenance, routine repairs, mid-term repairs, capital repairs, rehabilitation and reconstruction contracts and works programmes financed by the Road Fund; works that previously were always supervised and controlled departmentally, by outsourcing to the local consultancy industry and through the use of a Construction Supervision Manual (see scope of services) to lead the existing RF Technical Control Inspectorate and its staff towards an uplifted and quality based site management situation which coincidentally also converts the public service control organisations into a viable private sector for works supervision within the greater road sector.
Project Description
The subject works services are the design review, supervision, control and reporting on all works financed by the Road Fund on the networks of , ., and ..in Oblasts..and .and .. In addition to undertaking the supervision and approval of all works as The Engineer, the scope of services also includes agreeing all traffic management schemes on works sites with the executing agency concerned and ensuring all national regulations regarding Safety at Work are observed on all sites at all times including the proper signing and diversion provisions. These services are to be carried out initially with the direct employment of the existing Road Fund inspectorate staff on a seconded basis for the first year and a private sector employment contract for the second year.
The Consultancy Company shall be designated (as defined in the Contract Agreement with the Employer) for all civil and ancillary works under the programme of annual repair and maintenance that is funded by the Road Fund. The Consultancy Company shall administer the civil works contracts, make engineering decisions, be responsible for quality assurance, material testing, providing general guidance and furnish timely response to the Contractors in all matters relating to the civil works, and to ensure that all clauses of the Contract Agreement between the civil works Contractors and the Employer (Road Fund (or Highway Authority) are respected and adhered to.
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010 Page 120 Version 1
The Consultancy Company shall advice the Employer (Road Fund (or Highway Authority) on all matters relating to the efficient and successful execution of the civil works contracts and shall act at all times so as to protect the interests of the project and shall take all reasonable steps to keep expenses to a minimum, consistent with sound economic and engineering practices; and shall prepare a Construction Supervision Manual for the use of the existing Road Fund Technical Control Inspectorate staff outlining routines and standard operating procedures to be applied in construction supervision based on internationally recognised practices. The Consultancy Company will be responsible for providing qualified professional and supporting staff (to augment as necessary the existing number of Road Fund Technical Control Inspectors seconded to them) according to the quantity and sophistication of the works under this supervision contract and all necessary services as are required for the efficient cost-effective and timely execution of the consultancy services.
Services
The services of the Technical Control Supervisory Consultant shall include, but not necessarily be limited to the following:
a.
Design Review
The Supervisory Consultants shall review any available design and drawings in detail. If any amendments to design are required by the Supervisory Consultants shall be incorporated only after approval by the Employer. The Supervisory Consultants thereafter shall assume equal responsibility with the Design Consultants for the soundness and safety of the design. In case of difference of opinion between Supervisory and Design Consultants, decision of the Employer shall be final. No separate fee shall be permissible for design review. The cost of design review/vetting shall be deemed to be built into the charge rates of the Supervisory Consultants. Also the Consultant shall check CPM Planning based charts using primavera software or equivalent by the contractor to verify project duration and how he intends to monitor the progress on the Project with an objective of achieving planned progress.
b.
(2)
(3)
(4)
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
c.
The Supervisory Consultants shall ensure that all Uzbekistan Government and any Provincial Government rules as well as Local rules and regulations applicable to the Works are followed. The Supervisory Consultants shall issue necessary instructions to this effect, to the Contractor on behalf of the Employer.
d.
Supervision Responsibility
The responsibility of supervision shall rest with the Consultancy Company acting as the Engineer who shall issue instructions in writing to the Inspectors of the Road Fund for the supervision of Works as per the Contract. Supervisory Consultants Agreements with the Employer. The Supervisory Consultants shall carry out a revision in the plans and specifications as required and prepare all change orders instantly thereto and shall further assist the Employer in negotiations necessary for execution of the changes. Such revisions shall be encouraged which result in improved project performance. The Consultant will check surface quality by Conducting Surface Characteristics Surveys at the time of take over & subsequently at end of Defect Liability period as per Engineering Practice.
e.
Construction Supervision
The Supervisory Consultant Company shall be fully responsible that the Works are executed in accordance with the plans and conform to the specifications. The Supervisory Consultants shall carry out the supervision ensuring the following: (1) (2) (3) That all soils and construction materials incorporated into the Works are properly tested and comply with approved specifications. That all the Works completed are inspected by the Engineer or his Inspector acting as his Representative. That Works comply with the approved Specifications, Work Methodology, sound engineering practices and in accordance with provisions of the Contract Documents. That Contractor complies with the Conditions of Contract with reference to provision of Insurance Guarantees etc. That quantity measurements and quality control are in full compliance with the stipulations of the Contract. That the laboratory equipment is in working condition at all times. Ensure that necessary services are provided corresponding to the Contractor's Schedule of Work without any delays caused on the part of the Consultants. Timely assistance and directions are provided to the Contractor in all matters relating to ground survey controls, quality control, testing and other matters relating to the performance and progress of the project. Assure quality of the works during construction; continuously inspect the soils and materials, construction operations and the works with regard to workmanship and compliance with the specifications.
Page 122 Version 1
(8)
(9)
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
(10)
Evaluate Portland Cement Concrete and bituminous mixture designs prepared by the Contractor and recommend improvements (if any) to ensure the desired performance and accord approval thereof.
f.
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8) (9)
g.
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
(2)
Maintaining up-to-date progress schedules in the form of bar charts and other appropriate systems indicating the major items of work being performed according to the Work Program/Schedule approved by the Employer. Review the Contractor's proposed Work Schedule and issue acceptance or rejection of the same as the case may be. Verify the quality of work performed by the Contractor and submit the report thereto including certification for release or otherwise of the Performance Guarantee. Assure the receipt of and maintain as permanent records of all warranties required under terms and conditions of the Contract Agreement for materials including their source and equipment accepted and incorporated in the project, Establish a comprehensive system of maintaining site records including site correspondence, survey data, inspection records, test data, site diaries, records of meetings, financial records, progress records etc.
(3) (4)
(5)
(6)
h.
(2)
(3)
(4)
i.
(2)
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
j.
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
(10)
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
Appendix B
Comments from Road Fund on Draft Final Report and Consultants Answers
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
Comments from RF
The chapter 4 Assess institutional framework In the report, paragraph 2.3, page 38., the paragraph from bottom says that From the various measures, one which would be of the highest importance would be to take out the assets from the companys balance sheets. Assets could be held by Ministry of Finance, and integrated into the State accounts as this is done in most other countries. However, according to the existing local legislature, the holder of road assets may be authorized state enterprise or the State Property Committee. The above mentioned conclusion of the Consultant contradicts the principles of the international law as well as normative documents of the local legislature.
The Consultants are well aware that the national legislation assigns the road assets as a property to the authorized body. As already stated in the consultants report, and in the ADB eligibility report, the roads as state property cannot be sold. The preservation of a very long term assets as a public service duty is totally different from commercial motivations of shorter term. To have a clearer division of objectives, public and commercial, it would appear preferable for the road infrastructure assets to be held on the balance sheet of a state budget entity with a purely public service objective, and absence of commercial motivations. The Consultants would favor a change of legislation to separate the roles of the road owner and the road asset manager (road agency). We do not see where the change, if supported by the relative national legislation, would contradict international law. As an example, Republic of Moldova with the same legislative history, introduced this change supported by World Bank just few years ago.
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In the report, paragraph 2.11.1, page 46, table DISADVANTAGES says that The Road Fund, has to move from the approach that quality or works control is adversarial. In fact, quality or works control is conducted not to with the hostile aims as indicated in the report but to check the compliance of civil and erection works being conducted, and documentation of design and estimates. Hereby the Consultant has to clarify the mentioned conclusion.
The Term Adversarial is used in Western Countries to describe the older or more traditional type of contract whereby the Owner appoints an Engineer to represent his interests and as they are on opposite sides of the contract it is viewed that the Engineer and Contractor are opposing or adversarial .. The modern contract places them both on the same side of the contract and working in partnerships and collaboration they collectively deliver what the owner requires.
Besides, in the report the Consultant considers the advantages and disadvantages of the existing and proposed levels of the road sector management. Examples of EBRD and EU are provided (page 7 Issues and options of the development of the road Sector institutes) Issues and option of the development of the road sector institutes.)
The main report has been developed to more clearly show the evolution of the reform. If the sequence is generally very similar in all countries, the pace of change and the final stage to be reached depends on government initiative and can vary significantly.
However, the Consultant did not indicate the sequence for the implemented institutional reforms in the illustrated example.
Because it is important for identifying the period of the reforms to be implemented, to avoid risk and for social protection of the population that may lose the jobs during the transformations.
In the Main Report the Consultant did not indicate to what institution the function of the Client is to be attached.
The Consultant re-iterates that the Client is the Road Asset Manager The Road Agency. That is international and normal practice. The main text has been updated to clear this issue.
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
The chapter 5 Introduce computerized road planning & management using HDM-4 and the chapter 6 Data base 1. Concerning the task 41 Purchase and installation of HDM-4. Even though four (4) discs with licensed key were transferred to the RF no installation of this software with calibration of the input data on the computers of RF has done. We think it is necessary to install licensed software with calibration of the input data on the computers of RF people who passed the special training course with HDM-4. One needs to be emphasised that according to the opinion of the international experts said in the report many default parameters of the HDM-4 are not relevant to the conditions of Uzbekistan that implies the lack of efficiency of the HDM-4 in conditions of Uzbekistan. 2. Concerning the task 52, 53 Development of the data base system and Installation of the data base system and association with HDM-4. In the Report it is said that at the end of the project implementation the RF will receive the source code and software product of the developed pilot RMS project for Uzbekistan. Within the project the proposed data base has not been delivered to RF as well as no training for practical use of the software has not been carried out. We believe it is needed to install the data base system and train the relevant people of the RF with input and processing of the data operations. All the calibration data and all the data of the HDM run (Network, Programme and Project Analysis) have been part of the data handover disk that was submitted to Road Fund on 23rst July (reference U1069).
The calibration data is contained in the HDM objects file, and the sample objects data just needs to be replaced by the data supplied by the consultants.
The consultants will liaise with their local partners to complete the installations.
The RMS software, installation disk and data was also part of the CD Data handover mentioned above. The RMS software was installed during the last training course on the computers of the participants. A special session was dedicated to the RMS training (the software is quite easy to rst use) on Wednesday 21 July. Unfortunately, during that day, the only present staff member of the Road Fund was S. Vovchenko. On his quite old personal laptop, the installation did not succeed, but he followed the steps of all data manipulation and export to HDM. The trainees from design office have completed the installation of the software and the database.
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010
Above, page 56, section1, para. 3 says that following the course licensed software of HDM-4 was installed on the computer of Sergey Vovchenko. In fact, following the training course Pier Jouber installed on the computer of Sergey Vovchenko only the demo version of HDM-4. This version includes the training exercises carried out during the training course between 14 and 25 of December, 2009 and it is not relevant for inputting new data and operations for automatic planning and road management.
Following the closing course of HDM-4 between 19 and 23 of July, 2010 it was the same demo version of HDM-4 installed on the computer of Sergey Vovchenko with the same exercises of the passed course.
The Consultants installed various copies of HDM-4: - During the December training, 3 copies were installed on various laptops used by the trainees but the software was uninstalled as these computers were not the final equipment to be used for HDM. - During the July training, the software was installed on the personal laptops of the trainees, including T. Komilov, G. Axatov, and A. Djumankulov, because the intention was to use their laptops during the training. As these computers are not official Road Fund computers, they were reverted into DEMO versions. To re-activate a DEMO version, it is sufficient to activate the software at TRL. - However, we agree that the situation is not clear, and the Consultants local partners will complete the installations, as soon as the Road Fund has designated the computers to be installed.
Page 98, section 2.1, para. 3 indicates wrong data for running training seminar HDM-4.
Appendix A7, section 1, para.1 says that 8 RF people participated in the training course within May 31 and June 13, but the table with participants lists only 7 people.
The correct list could be found in the main text of final report. The participants were: ELMURATOV OYBEK MUMINDJANOV HABIBULLA YUNUSOV HAMDAM SAVITSKI NIKOLAI ASHIRMATOV KAMMOLIDDIN DAVLETIAROV SHUKRAT NUSEROV NURLAN SOLIEV MIRZAJON
Under consideration of the abovementioned let us inform you that the final draft report will be accepted after clearing (solving) of the mentioned comments.
Sincerely,
Director J.Shukurov
Road Sector Planning and Management System Final Report August 2010