E'EPARTAME.

1 OCT.
EZT.j -

DEPARTAMENTO EZfli' Y MET000S OPERAC!O!4.

A Methodology for Rockburst Hazard Assessmentfor the Canadian Rockburst Research Project

Prepared for: Mining Research Directorate (MRD) Laurentian University Sudbury, Ontario Canada

Prepared by: Mark Board and John Tinucci Itasca Consulting Group, Inc. 708 South Third Street Minneapolis, Minnesota 55415 USA

September 1993

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Table of Contents Page 1.0 INTRODUCTION 1.1 1.2 Overa!! Objectives of he Program A Design Approach 1.2.1 1.22 1.2.3 1.2.4 2.0 General Background Design Methodology Procedures in the Methodology Calibration of the Analysis Process 1 1 3 3 7 10 15

INTEGRATION OF THE DESLGN APPROACH INTO THE FRESENT MRD PROGRAM 2.1 22 CurrentResearch nteraction of Seis,nic Research and Numerical Modeling Developrnent of a Methodology For Estirnating Rockburst Potential 2.2.1 12.2 2.2.3 Data Available From Seismic Monitoring Numerical Approaches For Representation of Shear Failure Classification of Rockbursting From Results of the Numerical Model

16 16

19 22 22

24 26 26 26 26 27

3.0

USE OF A DETERMINISTIC DESIGN METHOD IN PRACTICE 3.1 3.2 Introduction Procedure 3.2.1 3,2.2 3.2.3 Geologic Mapping Compilation of Seismicity and Damage History Stress Analysis, Excess Shear Stress and Energy Release Determination

27 37 38

4.0 5.0

CONCLUSIONS REFERENCES

1.0 INTRODUCTION

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The Canadian Rockburst Research Program (CRRP), sponsored through the Mining Research Directorate (MRD), has been chartered with performing research that mines can use to minimize rockburst potential and damage. As part of this program, a Mine Design Project was defined in 1991 to develop state-of-the-art techniques that would make it practical to use mining-induced microseismic data to calibrate numerical modeis which simulate the rockburst failure process. The project was based on extracting information on mechanisms and irends from well-defined case histories in order to calibrate the modeis which, in turn, could be used to estimate the risk and darnage for The rockburst research project has approximately two years remaining. During this time, the main components of the program, seismology, mine design (numerical modeling), and damage assessrnent and support speciflcation, need to be pulled together into a coherent overail program which will provide practical and useful methodologies for perforrning mine design and support assessment in burst-prone ground conditions. This paper discusses a practical approach to the mine design portion of the project which can be used to accomplish the overail goals of the program during this time period. Described are sorne possible objectives for the remainder of the program. Although the suggested methodology will be modified by the end of the program, this paper is developed to provide a platform for discussion of the rernaining research objectives. Overa!! Objectives of he Program

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1.1

Extensive research into the causes, prediction and prevention of rockbursting has been conducted in this and other programs over the past 20 or more years. With only a short period of time rernaining in this program, the objectives must be guided by the practical needs of the mining industry. To determine these objectives, one must examine the basic questions facing the mine design engineer at a typical deep hard-rock mine. The practical issues that must be addressed indude: (1) the location of expected rockburst occurrence (What geologic structures or portions of the mine are the rnost likely Iocations for seismicity?); (2) the general likelihood (or probability) of rockbursts occurring for the present mining methods (or other methods);

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(3) the estimated magnitude and number of the seismic events; (4) the mining methods or stope sequencing which will mininiize the likelihood of large-magnitude seismicity; (5) the location and characterization of the damage likely to occur (e.g., explosive crushing or keybiock-type failures); (6) the extent of the damage; and (7) the type of ground support required for the development headings and stopes. (What is the costlbenefit to the mine in supporting for the heaviest pos sible event?) We realize that it will not be possible to address all these issues with great certainty in the time remaining in this project. Rather, the goal should be to provide an engineering approach to the problem which is based on simple techniques, yet provides a reasonable representation of the physics of the rockbursting problem. The methods ultimately used to perform mine design in burst-prone grourid conditions should provide a means of assessing the probability of damaging events as well as the risk of damage from these events. It is envisioned that the development of procedures will assist the mining engineer in addressing these questions. These procedures wihl provide a methodology for analyzing seismic data and for the application and interpretation of results from numerical modeis for assessment of conditions and design altematives. Such procedures should allow for identification of: (1) source mechanism and the critical geologic structures and mining configurations which con tribute to rockbursting;

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(2) estimation of the number, magnitude and location of the seismic events which will occur in mining a given block of ground by a given mining method; and (3) a means of assessing the influence of altemative mining methods, such as the use of pillars or stope sequencing for minimizing the potential for large rockbursts. Based on the estimate of rockburst location and magnitude, a simple means should then be available to assess the risk of damage to surrounding excavations. In new areas, it may be possible to alter development plans or excavation sequences to avoid zones of high damage risk; in pre-developed areas, it may be possible to prepare guidelines for making estimates of the peak particle velocities and seismic-induced stress changes that might be expected. Proce-


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dures under development at Laurentian University can be used for estimating the type of damage and expected darnage levels and support It is proposed that the methodology and procedures be presented in handbook forrn to guide the mining engineer through the design process. The handbook should offer rules, equations and step-by-step procedures where appropriate.

1.2 A Design Approach

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1.2.1 General Background The need for providing a design methodology, rather than specific design guidelines, stems from the fact that there are a large number of variables controlling rock mass behavior for which associated uncertainties can be quite large. Factors controlling rock mass behavior in one mine might not be the same as in another mine - that is, rockburst mechanisnis depend on mine-scale and local ground conditions. Researchers have generaily classified rockburst mechanisms into two categories: strainbursting and fault-slip-type rockbursts (see, for example, Hedley, 1992). Rockbursts in close proximity to excavations which are related to shear or extensional failure of intact rock are generally termed strain bursts. Surface spalling (or buckling), pillar bursting and foundation failures are subsets of this type of event. Fault-slip rockbursts can occur in close proximity or at greater distances from the excavations as a result of unstable slip on existing fault or fracture surfaces. The triggering mechanism for fault-slip-type events would appear to be shearing of irregularities along the fault surface, with subsequent propagation of the rupture along the surface until arrested by clamping stresses or by barriers along the fault (e.g., McGarr, 1981). Damage from this form of event is largely due to the impact of the resulting seismic wave against excavations. A majority of the evidence indicates that seismicity in mines is initiated by shear failure associated with existing fracture surfaces, or flaws in the rock mass. These flaws may range from microscopic grain boundaries to faults with kilometers of continuity. The magnitude of the release of energy accompanying the slip depends on the slip length, the magnitude of the excess shear stress (ESS) on the fractures, and favorable kinematics which allow slip to occur. Numerous examples (e.g., Ryder, 1987; Brurniner and Rorke, 1990; Board, 1993) have shown that slip regions and approximate magnitudes of events can be reproduced from back analysis of rockbursts through the use of deterrninistic models. In other words, if the location of the geologic structure is known in advance, the calculated stresses from numerical simulations of the mining geometry can be used to determine the ESS on the srrucrure, which has been found to predict fairly wefl the resulting seismic moment.

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Theoretically, quite a lot is known at this time about the basic mechanisms of rockbursting (see, for example, Trifu and Young, 1992). Detailed seismological studies are currently underway to identify the basic failure mechanisms along fault traces and the mechanics of the subsequent rupture. Certainly, more could be learned about the details of the failure process, but the primary problem from a mining engineering standpoint is that rockbursting has proven to be more-or-Iess unpredictable. Most often, the mine management needs to know the probability that a seismicity problem will exist in sorne given region. Additionally, management needs to know, in general terms, how severe the risk will be for damaging events, not necessarily the exact mining geometry or time that the event will occur. Most of the past predictive effort has been applied to attempts to predict rockburst problems by determining slip potential on a given, known geologic structure. This process has often been performed in a "backward" modeling sense (i.e., through back-analysis), but has not often been used in a "forward" type of predictive mode. However, rockbursts often occur due to shear on structures which were either unknown prior to the event or were not considered to be of significance by geologists or engineers. (How many times has the statemerit "1 never dreamed that this structure could cause so many problems.' been heard.) Due to this basic problem of unpredictability, we feel that the niodeling of failure on known or pre-defined structures (i.e., deterministic rnodeling) is not, in general, a particularly good approach for assessment of rockburst risk. Instead, it is our opinion that the deterministic approach is suitable in only certain circumstances, and that a probabilistic approach for risk assessment is more widely applicable as a predictive modeling tool. Probabilistic modeling, as used in many geotechnical engineering applications for which the geologic structure is not well known (examples include groundwater transpon), makes more sense for rockbursting analysis. Simple tools are needed which can assess the probability or risk of seismicity for varying mine layouts. We suggest that stochastic methods be used to evaluate the probability of large scale seismicity given a disti-ibution of fractures, shears and faults determined from underground mapping when subjected to a given mining-induced stress state (Fig. 1). These fractures are described by their orientation and continuous length. The basic assumption here is that the majority of seismicity is the result of shear failure on existing flaws in the rock mass. The background distribution of fractures in a rock mass is termed the "fabric" and can be described using probabilistic methods applied to underground fracture mapping. In addirion to the fabric, well known and extensive fault structures can be included explicitly to compose the description of rock mass fracturing. All of these fractures represent "defects" in the rock which could potentially result in a shear failure, and thus a seismic event. In the proposed method, we produce a synthetic fracture fabric for the mine from the probabihistic description of the fractures. Upon this fracture map, the mining-induced stress state is apphied, and the potential for slip and seismic energy release is examined for each fracture. From a probabilistic standpoint, sorne of these fractures may

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have a large excess shear stress upon them as well as a sufficient continuous length to produce a large seismic energy release. The ESS is determined for each of these fractures mdividually, and the resulting seismic source parameters are estimated using the work or Brune (1968) and Ryder (1987). It is the goal of the modeling to identify the probability that these large events wil occur, given the fracture set, the in-situ stresses, the intact rock properties and the local mining geometry. The rnining-induced stress state can be defined via any two- or three-dimensional stress sis approach. This technique is capable of producing all of the seismic source parameters, including number and location of seismic events, seismic moment for each event and, thus, the relatiori between number of events and moment (i.e., the Gutenburg-Richter relation, energy, seismic efficiency, etc. The seismic model must first be calibrated for each mine against past seismicity so that the model produces equivalent distributions of seismic moment as well as location. Once this is complete, the model can be used to assess seismic risk for mining of a block of ground by any given mining method. The rnethods can be compared, and that producing the lowest seisniic risk chosen. Regions of greatest seismic risk can be contoured, and for these regions, estimates of the probability for events of various Richter magnitude can be made. This information feeds directly into the support design project of Laurentian University which seeks to estimate the magnitude of PPV for surrounding excavations, determine the resulting damage and specify the appropriate support design. The great attraction of this approach is its simplicity - no detailed numerical modeis with complex constitutive behavior are required, yet the model will produce the same data as the seismic monitoring systems, aliowing detailed calibration. We feel that such an approach is the only method capable of estimating probability due to the significant level of the unknowns in the geologic structure. For specific cases such as crown pillars, where the geologic structure is well known in advance, purely deterministic methods are very useful for identifying the propensity for unstable shear failure. The components of the method are described in greater detall later.

^- v ^ A . /tLength Dip Dip Direction Voronoi Generation Routin

ir

Spacing

Prob. Fracture Model

Map Stresses on Fractures

2 Nuttli Mag.

Stress Analysis

Log N

)k

,x/

etc

Fig. 1 Schernatic Illustration of me Probabilistic Meihod for Seismicity Prediction


-71.2.2 Desigri Methodology For a seismic design methodology to be used, it must be relatively simple to implement and must have, as basic input, the geologic structure mapped in the mine, the mine stope geometry and the historical data base of observed seismicity. Engineers working within the mining cornpany must be able to use it on a day-to-day basis, if necessary. The methodology should provide a &amework which guides the design and provides information on which the engineering staff can make planning and support decisions. The problem of rockbursdng is too complex to provide exact predictions (or safety factors). Most decisions will ultimately be hased on the engineer's practical experience, but those decisions should be augmented by iising results obtained from this project, expressed in as practical a manner as possible.

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Although we foresee it being necessary to make sorne numerical predictions of the mininginduced stress state, emphasis should be placed on prediction of probability of seismicity and the risk of darnage. Ernphasis should be place on development of rules or procedures which can be quickly a.nd easily applied for standard mining configurations. A possible design approach is shown in broad terms in Fig. 2. A general discussion of the methodology is presented first, followed by greater detail on individual procedures. l'he design methodology essentially involves a two-phase approach. The first phase involves design and predictive studies conducted in advance of mining, with continued comparison and adjustment of the predictive model during the mining as additional seismic data and observation ase obtained. The pre-mining studies are aimed at providing an estimate of the risk of large, damaging rockbursts, the most probable locations for these events, and an initial mining layout which minimizes their potentiaL Specifications for the minimal level of ground support necessary can also be made from these studies, along with cost-benefit analyses of using heavier support leveis. Specific objectives include: (1) preliminary assessments of the potential for rockbursting through use of a combination of seismic data and simple probabilistic and deterministic rnodels; (2) classification of the type of seismicity expected; and (3) estirnates of risk of damage and specification of support using methods under development at Laurentian University. The assessment of rockburst potential is based on a ' t screening" process which utilizes simple numerical methods to conduct probabilistic and deterministic analyses of shear failure potential in either the intact rock mass or along rock mass fracturing. As will be described later, the probabilistic modeis are calibrated against known seismicity in the mine and used as a tool to predict the risk of future seismicity. An important result from the first phase of the


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pre-mining studies is a classification of the expected rockburst conditions and strategies for rernedial actions. The second phase of analysis concerns determination of active measures taken lo minimize the expected problems. Morrison and MacDonald (1990) identified two methods available for dealing with rockbursts: (1) strategic methods (including mine planning, sequencing and alternative development strategies); and (2) tactical methods (including active measures for rockburst control such as de-stressing and ground support). The choice of the method is based on ihe classification and magnitude of the rockbursting - that is, if only small magnitude surface spalling is expected, then only local increased surface support, de-stressing, or minor changes in excavation geometry may be sufficient to control bursting problems. If, however, the potential for large fault-slip seismicity appears likely, then major changes in sequencing or development strategies may be necessary to minirnize expected damage leveis. The two-phase design approach suggested here provides a framework for estimating possible locations and severity of rockbursts, as well as the strategy for predicting and dealing with the resuhing damage problems. Relatively simple numerical modeling tools, calibrated using seismic and geomechanics data, are used as a means of classifying expected rockburst conditions for future mining geometi-ies. From this classification, guidance can be given as to the method for approaching the problem - tactical or strategic. In the case of tactical methods, empirical support methods, such as those under development at Laurentian University, can be used for estimating darnage potential and specifying support leveis. For strategic methods, simple design rules or numerical simulations can be used to examine layout alternatives which minimize the potential for rockburst. It is important to note that the methodology should not be viewed as a static procedure which leads to the initial design; rather, the design will evolve (i.e., is periodically reviewed and updated using the methodology) as mining continues and new seismic data are collected.

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Mining Pian Siope La yout Siope Sequencing * Location and Orienlation of Dee1opmcnt

Geologic Siructure Location and Orientation of Structures Estimate of Fauli Props In Sito Stress Estimate

Prohabiiistic Oc Deterministie Analysis Esthnate of Rockburst Potential Predict Probabilitv of Major EenI.s Define Regions of Likelv \'oIent Failure 'Etimae Max. Seisrnic Momeni Produced Poseible Large Scale (Clase II) Tockbursts Re-examine Mine Plan Yes For Small Scaie (Class 1) RockbursL, Examine Use of Destressing, Increased Suppo Or Geome(ry Changes

Is There A Need To Re-examine Siope Layout or Sequencing To Minimize Failure Potential ? or, Shouid Remed ial Measures Be Used? No Final Etimate of Seismic Potential - Location and Magnilude of Possible Events Dvnamlc Effects of Seismic Event Estimate of PPV and Stress Change In Reglon Around Eent

Damage Assesssnent
6 Estimale

of Damage Locations Uslng PPV

* Estimate of Type and Extent of Damage (e,plosive or keybiock) Re-examine Localon or Orientation of De'elopment? Final Support Recommendation Final Mine Plan

Check Predlctlons Againsi Seismlc Dala During Mining

AdjustfleslngMNeeded 1

Fig. 2 General Methodology for Assessment of Rockburst Potential and Risk In Which a Seismic Dala Base Is Linked lo Nurnerical Modeling and Empirical Methods of Dainage Assessinent and Support Specification

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1.2.3 Procedures in ihe Methodology The following discussion describes the use of probabilistic and deterministic methods for estimation of rockburst probability. The suggested process requires a statistical description of the geologic structures in the mine, followed by a stress analysis. Probability estimates and risk assessments are made by mapping the predicted stress state onto the mine fracturing. Each step in this process is described below.

Step 1

Describing the Strucrures in the Mine

The first step in the suggested risk assessment procedure is to map and statistically describe the geologic structures which exist in the mine. From the perspective of Canadian seismicity, most structures of importance are those with significant, continuous Iength. For each set of major discontinuities, the length (continuity), spacing, dip and dip direction need to be described in terms of a probability density function. The typical technique used for this determination is the scanline procedure as described in Priest and Hudson (1981) or as described by Pahi (1981) for discontinuity trace length. From this mapping, a series of probability density functions are easily developed as described in these papers. In addition to the general fracture distribution, large, well known fault or dyke structures can be added explicitly to those defined probabilistically. The fracture spacing and length will likely be described by a form of exponential distribution. These distributions have been shown to be fractal in nature and naturaily give rise to the standard Gutenburg-Richter relation for number of events versus seismic moment when subjected to a stress field capable of producing shear failure.

Step 2 - Developmenr of a "Synrhetic" Fracture or Flaw Set for the Mine

The aboye statistical descriptions of the primary fractures or flaws in the mine are used to generate a 'synthetic" fracture distribution which reasonably represents the distribution for the rock mass in the mine. At present, a Voronoi tesselation procedure is used to randomly generate flaws from the probability density functions given abo ye. In addition to the probabilistically-defined features, the large fault traces can be added to the synthetic fracture set, resulting in a combined stochastic and deterministic process. Since the fractures are evaluated entirely in a post-processing procedure, there is little computational effort expended, and many t.housands of fractures can easily be handled on standard PC equipment.

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Step 4 - Calibration of he Seisnicity Step 3 - Stress Analysis of he Mine Excavations
A stress analysis needs to be conducted for the mine excavations for all proposed mining steps. In most cases, as simple a model as possible is used which assumes an elastic rock mass but which captures the geometry of the excavations in a reasonable fashion. For the complicated mining geometries often used in Canadian mines, this likely requires a threedimensional model. The stress state at many locations in a regular gridwork surrounding the excavations and the region in question is determined. This can be done with any suitable stress analysis package including houndary elements, finite elements or distinct elements. The stresses and their coordinates are stored in a file for reca!l by the seismicity simulator postprocessing package.

To estimate the seismicity, the stress state is overlain on the simulated fracture network for each rnining step. Each fracture is examined, and the excess shear stress distribution is determined. Ryder (1987) first proposed the use of an easily calculated term, the excess shear stress, to define the potential for seismic energy release due to unstable slip on fractures. The primary idea behind this method is that the ESS (the shear stress on a structure which is over and aboy e the shear stress limit) is the driving force which generates the energy release in unstable slip. Areas of positive ESS drive failure and areas of negative ESS tend to retard shear or clamp-fault surfaces. The method involves determination of the area of positive ESS on a fracture. The information required to determine ESS is the length (area) of the fracture, the fracture orientation and its frictional properties as well as the mining-induced stress state. Ryder derived the basic seismic source parameters through the use of the circular slip Brune model by assuming average values for the static and dynamic angles of friction. Severa! authors, as described abo ye, have shown through back-analysis that the values of ESS give reasonable correlations to rockburst magnitude for back-calculations for field case histories. The ESS values are now routinely determined in mines in South Africa as a means of judging the potential for seismicity and the approximate magnitude of the expected events. If one assumes the simplest possible slip model (circular slip area as given by Brune, 1968), then the moment can be estimated (Ryder, 1987) without direct calculation of the kinematics of the slip:
M0

= 2,37 te a 3

(1)

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ere M o
T e

= seisrnic inonlent, = excess shear stress, = half-length of the positive shear stress lobe (2D), and

2.37 accounts for the geornetry effect of slip and stress profiles.

Based on observations from South African mines, Ryder (1986) suggests an average shear stress drop of 5 to 10 MPa for unstable slip on faults and 20 MPa for unstable rupture of intact rock. The Nuttli magnitude can be estimated for the potential seismic event using the ilation detei-niined by Trifu and Young (1992) for Sudbury:
log(M,) = 9.93 + 1.07 M

(2)

where M. is in N-m. Once a structuie has failed (in shear or in tension), it may be assumed that it will not undergo further seismicity and will thus be eliminated from further consideration. Further rules could be developed regarding kinematic admissibiity of slip. In addition, all of the seismic source parameters can be determined from the simple Brune (or other as desired) model. These include the shear stress drop: AT = where i'r Ps Pd
(Y

+ c

(3)

= stress drop, = static friction coefficient, = dynamic friction coefficient, = normal stress, and = cohesion.

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The average slip is

AU=

8 (1- y ) ir r 3it (1-v/2) G

(4)

where r = radius, and g = shear modulus.

The seisrnic energy release is

Wk
=

Lt it

r2 u

(5)

The seismic efficiency is

11=

(sId) + C/a
+ clan

(6)

Of great interest is a prediction of the event frequency-moment relation for the given simulation. This relation is of the form:
logN = a - b M (7)

where the a and b parameters can be determined for a given mine or portion of a mine from the history of seismicity. The predicted event frequency - moment distribution can easily be determined from the model and compared directly to that determined at the mine. The aboy e discussion shows that the model can be used to perform estimates for all of the basic seismic source parameters which are commonly monitored. It is possible, therefore, to perform a direct calibration of the model against fleid measurements. The primary physical parameters in the model which are adjusted to achieve a calibration include the input fracture length (area), spacing and orientation, the in situ stress state and the friction angle of the fault surfaces. The model is calibrated by performing back-analyses for the mine. The model is used to generate synthetic "histories" of seismicity for excavation over a number of years of monitoring and excavation. Cornparisons wil be made primarily to locations of seismic activity and the observed relation for tbe event frequency versus seismic moment (i.e., the standard Gutenburg-Richter relation for the mine). Salamon (1993) uses a similar approach in comparison to seismic data from South African goid mines. He found that reasonable agreement between model and fleid data could be achieved even with the assumptions of relatively sparse fracturing, and standard static and dynamic friction angles of 300 and 250, respectively.

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Step 5 - Use of Seismiciiy Si,nulator for Prediction of Seismic Risk The seismic simulator can be used to predict the probability of seismicity for a number of potential mining sequences or methods. From these calculations, histogram plots of occurrence of seismicity as a function of mining step or percent extraction can be made, as well as occurrence of events within a given monient range. Using ihis information, it is possible to make estimates of the probability of major seismic events occurring for a -ven mining geometry. Contours of the occurrence of major seismic events can be made to identify regions at greatest risk. This information can be used to identify probable source regions and source magnitudes for use in calculation of damage projections and support analyses. Thus, it is possible to construct risk maps for several mining sequences for comparison and selection. One interesting aspect of this technique is that, due to the 'Tules" which have been built into the simulator (e.g,, multiple slip will foL occur on the same portion of a fracture surface which has slipped in the past; once a fracture has been subjected to extensional stresses, it vil1 not slip again), the rock mass will exhibit a 'memory" as excavation continues and extraction ratios increase. Therefore, the seismic response of the mine could change as time and extraction continues, thus resulting in change in the 'b" value in the Gutenberg-Richter relation.

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Step 6 - Detailed Deterministic Analysis of Speciflc Mine Components

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many cases, it is desirabe to examine the detailed response of faults or dykes to mining. In these cases, the analysis is conducted in several steps to define the important structura! features. Initial analyses are aimed at identifying whether a rockburst problem may exist in any case. The issue of whether the rock mass might fail in shear or extension is addressed here, and only simplified numerical approaches are used initially. If the potential for failure exists, then critical orientations of geologic structure are identified and the range of critical properties quantified. For these initial studies, elastic stress analyses are used to examine miriing-induced stresses around the mine for various stages in the mining sequence. It is important that these modeis adequately represent the geometry of the excavations. In many cases in Canadian mines, this requires three-dimensional modeis using programs such as MAP3D, EXAMINE3D or 3DEC. The analyses focus on calculating stress leveis which then are used to identify critically oriented geologic structures.
In

A first estimate of the potential for intact rock mass failure can be quantified using MohrCoulomb or Hoek-Brown strength-to-stress ratios using the elastic stress determination. The sensitivity to variable strength parameters is easily examined in this way. The area of rock mass failure would be applicable for the case in which geologic structures are not felt to be of importance in the rockbursting.


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The importance of geologic structures can be estimated by determining the critical orientations and strength properties for slip to occur through the use of simple stereographic projections conibined with elastic stress predictions. Stereographic projections of fracture planes, stress state, slip directions, and mobilized frictional resistance can be plotted using, for exampie, the DIPS program. Kazakidis and Diederichs (1993) demonstrate the use of these techniques for severa! typical Sudbury mining problems involving potential slip on geologic structures. Resuits from these analyses are used to identify fractures which are unfavorably oriented and to estimate how close these planes might be to failure. Estimates of the potential slip length are made from joint strength-to-stress ratios for known fracture orientations. This initial 'scoping' study lirnits the type of geologic structure that needs to be investigated further. From this point, the engineer must examine mapped geologic structures to determine whet.her any of the major, continuous structures, such as faults and dykes, he within the potentially critical orientations. Once the critical structures have been identified, it is possible to conduct either ESS or discontinuum analyses. The ESS analysis is performed using elastic predictions of the mininginduced stresses and aliows an estimate of the maximum possible seismic moment due to slip. The discontinuum analysis additionally aliows the kinematics of the system to be determined with explicit calculation of slip and kinetic energy release for slip on the structures. This type of analysis is particularly valuable when detailed study of the excavation of sill or remnant pillars is involved. In these cases, the question is often whether failure of a given feature will occur during mining, and, if so, how much energy will be released, and whether it will occur violently. Deterministic analyses are more appropriate in these cases, for which the siructural geology is well known in advance. In any case, both the probabilistic and deterministic methods have a potential use in prediction of risk from shear failure.

1.2.4 Calibration of the Analysis Process

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The process described aboy e will only be valid if 'calibrated" against known rockburst conditions at a number of mines. Calibration involves use of the analyses to back-calculate mine-wide seismicity, preferably for those in which a full-waveform seismic system was in use and source parameters are available for comparison to the various modeis. At present, this process is being applied to Falconbridge Mine, No. 5 shaft events of 1984 (using deterministic modeling) and several damaging events at El Teniente Mine. It is anricipated that the process will also be applied to the Lockerby and Creighton Mines, and possibly Brunswick Mine, by the end of the project. If the process can be sufficiently calibrated, then it be reliable enough for use by design and planning engineers.


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2.0 INTEGRATION OF THE DESIGN APPROACH INTO THE PRESENT MRD 2.1 Current Research

The present MRD research on mine design has been organized around three main activities: (1) seisrnology research being performed at Queen's University; (2) damage assessment and support design research being performed at Laurentian University;

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(3) nurnerical niodeling of rockburst rnechanisms being performed at Itasca Consulting Group. (Sorne modeling has been perfornied at Laurentiari and Queen's Universities.) At present, these three activities are continuing more-or-less in isolation. In the remaining two years of the project, these activities need to be focused on comnion goals.

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The focus of the seismic research is currently to develop methods for determining mechanisms from known seismic events and to develop velocity imaging techniques for monitoring, for example, the change in loading conditions in pillars. From a mine design standpoint (at least from the authors' perspective), the most useful information regarding source rnechanisms includes determining: (1) (2) (3) source Iocations of major events and general event clusters; source mechanism (e.g,, shear or extensional orientations of seismically active features (e.g., fault plane solutions and PCA clusters); slip direction of faults; and

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(4)

(5) magnitude of major events (seismic moment and energy release).

Tornographic imaging is a useful tool for extracting information on the degree of nonuniformity in stress conditions within pillars or regions of the mine. It can be used as a rneans of verifying the success of mine layouts or stope sequencing, thereby guiding tactical measures for rockburst control. From a numerical modeling perspective, velocity changes can be compared directly to rnining-induced stresses, thereby assisting in calibrating rock mass properties.

- 17 -

Such comparisons are being made for the sili pillar analysis at Lockerby Mine and are planned for Sub 6 at El Teniente. The damage assessment and ground support program is currently conipiling statistics on dainage occurrence for rockbursts in Canadian mines as well as at El Teniente Mine. A risk and damage assessment method is under development which is based on direct observations of damage foliowing major seismic events. The magnitude and distance from the source is related to approximate darnage leveis, given the ground support type in use at the time of the rockburst. The basic idea is that the magnitude-distance relation will be used to specify support leveis necessary for maintaining stable excavations. As part of this work, three characteristic modes of failure have been identified which are dependent on the location and magnitude of the seismic event, the confinernent, the dynamic stress change in the rock mass and the jointing frequency and brittleness of the rock mass. These failure modes include (Fig. 3): (1) stress-induced failure (or strain-bursting) mechanisms; (2) inertial ejection of broken rock; and (3) gravity-assisted displacement of broken rock (or keybiock-style failures).

IIJ\
vi

-i1

'Hl

Fig. 3 Three Possible Categories of Failure at the Rockburst Location [Kaiser el al., 19931

- 18 -

The correlations for peak particle velocity (PPV) to source magnitude and distance derived for particular mines can be used to estimate the PPV for a given event. This research aims to relate damage to PPV, thus aliowing a broader application of estimating damage given the magnitude and location of possible events (Fig. 4). The primary means of interaction between damage assessment and ground support and seisniic research programs thus far has been via a determination of the Richter magnitude and source location of the major events. However, it is realized (Kaiser et al., 1993) that a better knowledge of the effects of local geology and fracturing, excavation span, in-situ stress, rock properties, and waveforrn characteristics is required for adequate understanding of the irregular nature of the darnage surrounding a seismic event. Additions to the present methodology to account for these features is currently in progress. Impossibeto support economicaHy
.."4. /

t)

\ /'4

,4

E:

y 40

No extra support needed

Target Distance R [m
Fig. 4 Conceptual Design Cliart For Support Selection [Kaiser et al., 19931

Finaily, mine design (nun-ierical modeling) efforts at Itasca to date have been oriented toward the simulation of shear-type events using elastic modeis (ESS determination) and more detailed non-elastic and discontinuum methods. Research is also currently in progress for development and testing of the probabilistic methods for prediction of risk for producing largemagnitude seismic events as described previously. (Note that other groups at Laurentian and Queen's Universities are involved in numerical modeling in the mine design project.) The numerical models currently in use are capable of performing static and dynarnic analyses and determination of energy balance as a function of mining. It is possible, with these models, to estimate seismic source parameters comparable to those obtained from a full-waveform seismic system. In addition, the modeis can be used for simulation of the rockburst source mechanisms (e.g, asperity modeis to represent unstable fault-slip behavior) and the subsequent

 1 1 I 1
I I

- 19-

propagation of the scismic wave through the rock mass. A variety of seismic parameters such as PPVs, seismic moments and induced-stress history can be determined in the region surrounding the event. Examination of the dynamic response of supported tunneis is also possible. Thus far, Itasca has conducted back-analysis on the Falconbridge 5 shaft using both ESS and discontinuum approaches. A reasonable comparison was found between the event location, seismic moment and energy release frorn the model to the major seismic events recorded by the mine-wide first arrival system and the Canada Geological Survey system. Presently, this inodeling approach is being applied to both El Teniente and Lockerby Mines. The ultirnate goal of the mine design project is to produce calibrated niodeis which can produce a prediction of the probability of seismic events including their magnitude and probable location. This information will, in tui-ii, be used for risk and damage assessment using the rnethodologies currently under development at Laurentian University.

2.2

Interaction of Seismic Research and Numerical Modeling - Development of a

Methodology For Estimating Rockhurst Potential

I I
u

In order for the mine design project to meet its program objectives in the remaining two years of the project, the seismic research, numerical modeling and damage assessment and support specifications efforts must focus on common goals and avoid duplication of efforts. In the foliowing cliscussion, the integration of these three main project activities are described in ugreater It is our feeling that the numerical modeling provides the natural coupling for integrating the seismic research and dainage assessment portions of the program. The foliowing discussion provides the details of the "linkage" of the various research aspects of the project which are shown schernatically in Figs. 5(a) and (b).

- 20 -

Fracture Nlapping (.eology. Mine Pian Seismie Monitoring In Situ Stress, Elastic Props

Input Data, Measw'ement, Observation

................................................................................ Develop a SttIcaI1- Itased Description of Fracture System, Including Major Faults Conduct StressArtalssis Using Elastic Modeis For Each IinIng Step

Probabiltstic or Deterrninistic Anaysis

Map Stresses Orno the FCLUrC System

Make Probabilistic Prediction otEvent Number and Magnitudes * Contour Magnitude ami Define Regiont of Greatest Seismic Risk

....................................... Estirnated Source Parameters F:slimate of Location of Greateot Ris Estimate Prob. of Masimum Esent ldentlfy EFI'ectt of Local Geology and Mining Geornetry

....................................... Are Predlctions Sensible \Vhen Cornpared Te Seimjc Histors!

Fig. 5(a) Details of tite Proposed Screening Process Resulting in Estimated Location and Magnitude of Seismicity

- 21 -

Estimated Source Parameters Estimak Location of Shear Rupture Estirnate Maximum Scismk Moment Determine Energy Release Rale For Mining Sequence Propose Support Methods Based on Geology. PPV, Ecavation Span and Damage Mode 1 Update Design During Mining Through Comparison of Predicitons To Monitored and Obsened Response

Clasuification of Rockbursting Tpe of Rockburst Initial Estimate of Damage Les'el

Predict Damage Loeations and Damage ModeiSeverity Using Laurentian Metlods

* Can Mine Design or Sequence Be Optimized Tu Reduce Rockburst Magnilude? * Can Remedial EITorts Such As Destresulng, Increased Support EliminaSe Minor Burstlng I'roblems?

Determine PPV in Region Surrounding Event Locations

Examine Alternative Mining Sequences Re-Cakulate ESS, Seismic Moment Determine Ener' Release Rate For New Mining Sequence Damage Assessment

Optimum Mining Sequence Estimated Final Location and Magnitude

Fig. 5(b) Continuation of Evaluation Process Afler Predictive Studies of Rockburst Location and Magnitude


-2 2.2.1 Data Available From Seismic Monitoring The seismic research program is aimed at understanding the details of the rockbursting process through the understanding of seismic data. Although there are a number of contributions from the seismic research program, the primary interaction with the other portions of the project is via the understanding of the overali source mechanisms of the seismic events. In particular, the foliowing information is felt to be of greatest use for development of a predictive tool for analysis of mining configurations: () source locations of past seismic events (for calibrating failure in the models); (2) source mechanisms (to determine, for example, whether a pure shear model makes sense); (3) source parameters (such as seismic moment and seismic energy release); (4) fault-plane solutions, with resulting orientation of the shearing surface and direction of slip vector; and (5) velocity histories at geophone locations in the mine. The seismic data can also be used to produce other calculated source pararneters such as source radius, average displacement and stress drop, but these are highly model dependent and can be used for model validation only with caution. For a description of source mechanisms and calculation of source parameters, ihe reader is directed to Trifu and Young (1992) or Gibowicz (1990). The abo ye information can be used to estimate the basic mechanism for the seismic event (e.g., shear rupture or extensional mechanism); given information on the mine geology, it can be used to identify the likely existing geologic structure(s) which might be related to the likely source of events. Perhaps analysis of the precursory data can lead to sorne degree of short-terrn predictability of the events as well, although this is not addressed here.

I 1 1

2.2.2 Numerical Approaches For Representation of Shear Failure The coupling of the seismic parameters with the numerical modeling is airned at providing a tool which can be used to assess the potential for rockbursting in a region of the mine for a given mining sequence. The purpose of the mocleling should not be to attempt to reproduce the detailed physics of the event (e.g., the evolution of the rupture process), but to provide a simple representation of the source mechanism which is consistent with the physics of the

- 23 -

failure process. In particular, existing modeis for which sorne degree of confidence are currently available can be used to identify: (1) active geologic structures; (2) critical components in the mine, such as pillars which wil most likely fail in shear; (3) likely Iocations of the shear failure; (4) the probable arca of fault surface undergoing slip; and (5) an estimate of the resulting seismic monient. The use of modeis to represent events of non-shear origin such as face-bursting is probably not practical at this time, since the basic failure mechanisms may be highly complex and more research is necessary. Fortunately, most large events appear to be dominated by shear failure rnechanisms. If modeling is to be used to reproduce seismic mechanisms, the issue to be addressed is the assurance that the numerical modeis have a basis in reality. This is done by verifying (or calibrating) the models against actual seismic data obtained from case examples of rockbursting at various mines. There are several reasonably simple numerical approaches which can be used to estimate the potential for shear failure, either along pre-existing geologic structures or through creation of a new fracture surface. As was cliscussed earlier, probabilistic or deterrninistic models are currently beirig used for back analysis of case histories. In both cases, the modeis have been specifically developed to produce estimates of seismic source paraineters which are directly comparable to the data determined from the digitizing seismic systems currently in use at many of the sponsoring mines. The pararneters which are currently being compared were discussed earlier. Calibration of the model is achieved once a reasonable prediction of the seismic history of the mine can be reproduced. A description of the calibration of the UDEC niodel against rockbursting in the #5 Shaft Pillar at Falconbridge Mine was given in Board (1993).


- 24 2,2.3 Classification of Rockbursting From Results of the Numerical Model The aboy e numerical mcthods can yield estimates of location and moment (magnitude) during rnining of a block of ground. It is meaningful for mine management that this information be used to additionally classify rockbursting in terms of probability of occurrence as well as the form of the event in physically meaningful terms. Morrison and MacDonald (1990) suggest a classification system for characterizing rockburst sources. This method provides a good starting point for this program by identifying the foliowing three classes of rockbursts.

1 I 1 I 1 I I I I 1 1

Class 1 rockbursts are localized rockbursts in highly stressed ground, such as in the face of advancing drifts, newly created excavations, or poor excavation geometries (such as acute-angle intersections). These rockbursts are related to local stress concentrations directly around the excavation and are usually smaller in inagnitude and characcerized by explosive failure and production of sinail rock fragments. Class II rockbursts occur near excavations and may be fault-slip or pillar bursts. This type of event may be of larger magnitude (>2 Mn) and associated with extensive failure of a pillar or violent fault-slip near excavations. These events are generaily the most destructive, with damage due to explosive mechanisms (in the case of the pillar burst) or impact of a seismic wave on the excavation (in both cases). Class 111 rockbursts occur well into the rock mass away from excavations, generaily in older, well developed mines. The rockbursts are related to violent slip on faults and may be very large in magnitude. It is difficult in most cases to relate this type of event to any specific excavation, since they appear to be related to the stress readjustments on a mine scale. Fortunately, this type of event often causes little damage due to the distance from the workings. However, any damage which occurs is related to impact of the seismic wave on unfavorably oriented excavations or keyblock structures which are near their limit of static stability. One of the objectives of the mine design project should be to develop a classification system for quantifying rockburst polential by directly accounting for ground and mining conditions. Modifying existing systems which describe sources such as those abo ye can be based on results of numerical modeis calibrated to case histories. Such a classification is especially useful for describing rockburst potential to management, since it avoids detailed discussion of seismic source parameters and fault mechanics and provides a practical description of the potential based on experiences with the consequences of rockbursting. With an based classifjcation scheme, it is simpler to follow with a series of "rules' or procedures for mining and for remedial measures for damage problems. In this manner, a framework based


- u U on both practical experience and theoretical estimates is provided for acting on the results of numerical modeling As Morrison and MacDonald (1990) suggested, there are two basic approaches for ti-eating rockbursts: tactical (or active) solutions and strategic (or passive) solutions. The tactical methods consjst of irnmediate measures which are taken to influence rock mass behavior, including de-stress blasting, different or enhanced rock support, or change in shape or direction of a excavation. Tactical niethods normally irnply the use of remedial measures for existing problerns. Strategic rnethods, on the other hand, are those in which long-term planning is used to avoid or minimize the problem, including planning of pillar dimensions, stope sequencing, etc. For Class 1 rockbursts, tactical procedures are normally used as a control method. Decisions on the tactical procedures used in this instance often depend on the experience of the engineer and empirical rules based on the experience of others may prove particularly valuable. For Class II rockbursts, strategic methods, including stope sequencing, the dimensioning of pillars and high-density Luis, are most effective. It is in this case that the design procedures suggested abo ye are of greatest value. Numerical modeis can be effectively used to analyze alternative mining methods, stope designs, fill properties, etc., and to select methods that niinimize rockburst potential. Once mining is underway, tactical methods such as de-stressing or increased support may be implemented. For Class III rockbursts, it is difficult to employ strategic controis since these events will invariably occur at planned extraction leveis. These events are more controlled in nature on a mine scale. Leaving barrier pillars can provide sorne level of stope convergence control on a mine scale. For these rockbursts, it must often be assurned that seismicity will occur, and it becornes important that development be located strategically and support be designed specifically to control damage. Numerical methods can be used to estimate potential source locations, magnitude, and the stage in mining when seismicity is most likely to be severe. Empirical methods are used to determine likely damage locations and proper support methods. -

U I I I U I I I

- 26-

3.0 USE OF A DETERMINISTIC DESIGN METHOD IN PRACTICE

3.1 Infroduction

In this section, an example is given of the use of elastic stress analysis for determination of ihe excess shear stress and estimation of event magnitude from a two-dimensional model of the #5 Shaft Pillar at Falconbridge Mine. This analysis is easy [o conduct, but it is shown that the resulting estimation of magnitude is very close to that predicted using a discontinuum method. This example demonstrates the use of a deterministic model for prediction of seism& potential. The use of a deterministic design method in practice should not require highly specialized engineering skills or great amounts of time. Reliance will be made primarily on simple elastic numerical modeis which can be run and interpreted by non-specialists. The determination of seismic source pararneters should be made as straightforward as possible, but it is recognized that training in data interpretation will be necessary for the non-seismologist.

3.2 Procedure

3.2.1 Geologic Mapping

I

The first step in use of the procedure is to compile data on mapping geologic structures. This step normally involves consultation with a mine geologist to divide geologic features into three categories: (1) major structures with continuities of tens to hundreds of meters, such as faults and shear zones which may have shown past movement; (2) major joint sets; and (3) geologic units of large stiffness contrast, such as dykes. Geologic mapping of the fault zones needs to be performed which characterize the surface (e.g., coatings, slickensides, gouge thickness, splays and offsets). Historic seismicity along any of the structures during mining needs to be defined. This seismicity is important since, at most mines with a rockbursting history, the seismically active features tend to be well known. The 3-D topography of the faults should be determined qualitatively to the degree possible in particular, whether the fault is offset or has changes in clip where future stoping areas are planned. This is important in determining possible stress concentrators and barriers to slip.

DEPARTAMENTO ESTUDIOS Y METODOS PHACIONALES

- 27 -

3.2.2 Compilation of Seismicity and Daniage History The history of the seisrnicity of the mine needs to be compiled into a form which can be used for comparison to the numerical modeling results. Of major interest is the relation of major seismic events to mining geometry and geologic structures. Such seismic information might include: (1) plots of source locations for given time periods; (2) foreshock, event, and aftershock event sequences for previous damaging events; (3) event frequencies (preferably by magnitude); (4) observations of event clustering and indications of active structures; and (5) damage reports from major events describing ground and support conditions. A rockburst classification scheme such as the one described earlier is helpful, in addition to a presentation of the seismic source parameters, if available. A compilation of the damage due to major seismic events based on the Laurentian damage classification system is useful as well.

3.2.3 Stress Analysis, Excess Shear Stress and Energy Release Determination

Initial Screening of Structure

An elastic stress analysis is conducted initially for the future mining sequence. The type of model (boundary element, finite difference, etc.) is not important at this stage. However, 3-D modeis may be considered, depending on mining geometries and seismicity history. Principal stresses from regions surrounding advancing excavations are then plotted on a stereonet, along with major geologic structures which might influence the mine-scale response of the rock mass. Plots of the friction cones for geologic structures allow estimates of slip potential and initial slip direction. If the structure is susceptible to slip, and if it is kinematically possible for rock aboye or below the plane to move toward the excavation, then the structures should be further considered for analysis and are classified as potentially critical features.

- 28 -

Excess Shear Stress Caicu/arion and T'fo/fle)1t Estimate

Elastic stresses fi-orn the same rnodel are then used to calculate: (1) the released energy for each excavation step, and (2) the ESS along known potentialiy critical structures. An estimate of the maximum seismic moment for shear on these planes is catalogued as a function of mining step. As an example of this process, consider the Falconbridge #5 Shaft, 4202-53-59 stope. Figure 6 shows a plan view of the mining sequence of the stope and the panel geornetry when the 3.4 M seisrnic event occurred on the #1 Fiat Fault directly in the footwali of the stope, approximately 8 rn aboy e the stope level. The orebody is mined for a considerable distance to the west of the Fiat Fault intersection, creating a significant stress concentration at the advancing stope face. The stope was driven to a point near to an intersection with the Fiat Fault, followed by the first panel driven from hangingwall to footwalL It was at this point that the rockburst occurred, followed by a series of events on other fault structures. Obviously, a 2-D model for this problem is an oversimplification, but it serves to illustrate the general concepts of the ESS concept. An elastic analysis was conducted in which mining was sii-nulated by a series of excavation steps advancing toward the fault. At each step, the ESS was calculated at all locations for planes parallel to the Fiat Fault. Contours of ESS are shown in Figs. 7 to 10. A number of parameter runs were conducted for various values of the friction angle of the fault from 20 to 30. The case for 20 friction is illustrated in these figures. Only values of positive ESS are piotted here, indicating iones in which slip is likely. Foliowing Ryder (1987), the seismic moment was calculated from ihe average shear stress drop and the area of the positive ESS region on the fault surface. The area of the positive ESS on the fault was determined when the fault surface was tangent to the ESS contour which equals the average shear stress drop. If one assumes the simplest possible slip model (circular slip area as given by Brune, 1968), then t.he moment can be estimated from (Ryder, 1987):
M0

= 2.37 te

a3

(8)

where M0 T e a

= seisrnic monient, excess shear stress, = half-length of the positive shear stress lobe, and

2.37 accounts for the geometry effect of slip and stress profiles.

- ')q_

Based on observations from South Afncan mines, Ryder (1986) suggests an average shear stress drop of 5 to 10 MPa for unstable slip on faults and 20 MPa for unstable rupture of intact rock. Using an ESS value of 5 MPa for the Fiat Fault location, one can see that unstable slip is not predicted until the stope reaches its farthest eastern extent. For a positive ESS lobe of 160 m, Eq. (3) yields a mornent of approximately 7x10 6 MN-m. Using the relation by Trifu and Young (1992) for Nuttli magnitude,
log(M) = 9.93 + 1.07 M

(9)

where M. is in N-m.

An approximate Nuttli magnitude of 2.7 is obtained with the simple excess shear stress approach, assuming 200 residual friction angle for the fault. This value is smafl compared to the actual 3.4 M event.

- 30 \

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- 31 -

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Fig. 9 Contour of Positive Excess Shear Stress Superirnposed on Stope Outline As Face Approaches Fiat Fault
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- 33 -

Disconiinuun Iviodel

The elastic continuurn approach can be extended using discontinuum modeling to determine the energy released in slip. Explicit calculations of the slip on the Fiat Fault for the same inining geometry using the IJDEC program were presented in Board (1993). In these calculations, a displacement-we,akening model vas used to represent the constitutive characteristics of the Fiat Fault in which a residual friction angie of 200 was used. The slip magnitude on the fault as determined in the discontinuum approach is shown in Fig. 11, along with the nlining geometry. It was found that violent slip on ihe fauit occurs at the sanie stope face position as predicted in the ESS model shown aboy e. Seismic moment can be determined directly from this model from the calculated slip magnitude and slip area. The seisrnic moment for this model is approximately 3.0 M, which is larger than that estimated using ESS. In both methods, the location of the slip region is similar - that is, in the inimediate hangingvall, corresponding to the region of positive ESS. The explicit model in this case offers the advantage of a direct calculation of energy release which can be used to determine the violence of the system response. Figure 12 shows the released energy, as well as the total boundary exchange and work consumed in friction for this example. The released energy is approximateiy 36 MJ/m of fault length into the plane of the problem (2D). Assuming a square siipping-region, as done for the ESS model, there is a total energy release of 3.6 to 4.5x10 3Mi for slip lengths of 100 to 125 ni. Using the approximate relation for seismic energy and Nuttli magnitude given by Hedley (1992), logW= l.5M - 1.65 ve obtain a conesponding Nuttli magnitude of approximately 3.4 to 3.5. Using a rockburst classification such as that proposed by Morrison and MacDonald (1990) would indicate a Class II rockburst, with expected extensive daniage to the adjacent stope and development. An estimate of PPV can be obtained using the relations developed by Hedley (1992) or Laurentian University (Kaiser et al., 1993). In turn, damage estimates and support type can be specified using empirical procedures. (10)

- 34

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Fig. 11 Nuinerically Produced Shear Dispiacement on Fiat Fault (Maximum displacement is 20 mm with a slip len gth of nearly 100 m total.)

- 35 -

JOB flTLE: Par i-rg o erergy co.rpoi1ens / meter ot fault length

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Fig. 12 Energy Release Rate in MJIm for Ihe Final Mining Step When Major Slip Occurs on tite Fiat Fault (The released energy is roughly 35 MJ/m.)

- 36 -

Mine Planning

The aboy e calculations indicate that even simple modeis are often sufficient for defining the relative threat of violent seismic events. In this case, even though a simple, two-dimensional model was used, the propensity for the fault to undergo a significant reaction to mining can he seen. An acceptable prediction of event magnitude can be obtained making only reasonable estimates of the residual or dynamic friction angle of the fault as well as the in-situ stress state. This type of modeling can be used for conducting mine planning studies of alternative mining or sequencing. Energy release magnitudes and slip locations can be used to chose ffie plan which minin-iizes violent energy release. At the same time, development plans can be chosen which utilize stope access and haulage which do not run directly through the predicted regions of high

1
4.0 CONCLUSIONS l This paper has presented a possible methodology for bringing together the various elements of the CRRP mine design project over the remaining two years. The primary goal of this project is to develop practical tools which can be applied by engineers in the various sponsoring mines. The 'linkage" must exist between the seisrnic analysis, numerical modeling and damage assessment programs in order for all to have a common goal. We feel that the final two years of the program should emphasize the practical demonstration of the use of these functions for direct application at the sponsoring mines. We suggest that the final outcome of this work be an applications manual which can serve as a guide to practicing engineers who need to apply tbe results of the modern digitizing waveform seismic systems as well as numerical modeis, which nearly all major mining companies presently use. Obtaining this outcome requires significant interaction of the various groups presently forming the research work for the CRRP. We suggest regularly scheduled working meetings of the various groups over this time to ensure coordination of efforts and development of the final product.

1 1 El
I

5.0 REFERENCES

38 -

Board, M. (1993) "Two-Dimensional Elastic and Discontinuum Analyses of Rockburst Mechanisms at Falconbridge Mine (Draft)," ICG Report to Mining Research Directorate, February. Brummer, R. K., and A. J. Rorke. (1990) "Case Studies on Large Rockbursts in South African Goid Mines,' in Rockbursts and Seismwity in Mines (Proceedings of Ihe 2nd International Syrnposiurn (Minneapolis, June 1988), pp. 323-330. Rotterdam: A. A. Balkema. Brune, J. N. (1968) "Seismic Moment, Seismicity, and Rate of Slip Along Major Fault Zones," J. Geophys. Res., 73, 777-784. Gibowicz, S. J. (1990) t 'The Mechanism of Seismic Events Induced By Mining - A Review,' in Rockbursts and Seisrnicily in Mines (Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium, Minneapolis, June 1988), pp. 3-28. Rotterdam: A. A. Balkema.

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