Honours Year Project Report

GIS for Elections

By Loh Kai Dih, Aaron

Department of Information Systems School of Computing National University of Singapore 2006/2007

Honours Year Project Report

GIS for Elections

By Loh Kai Dih, Aaron

Department of Information Systems School of Computing National University of Singapore 2006/2007

Project Number: H030280 Advisor: Prof. Ivan Png Deliverables: Report: 1 Volume

Abstract The main purpose of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) is to provide visualization to support decision making. Also, GIS have become widely available with the advent of easily accessible free software such as Google Earth and web based mapping applications such as Google Maps, Yahoo! Maps and Microsoft MapPoint. Through open APIs, it is possible to program generic and application specific GIS using one of the web based mapping applications. This project presents a generic GIS for Singapore built on top of Google Maps, and an additional Elections Prediction extension that can predict the effect of changes to Electoral Boundaries. Subject Descriptors: G.3 H.2.8 H.3.5 J.4 Keywords: Geographical Information Systems, Elections, Census, Prediction Implementation Software and Hardware: MSSQL 2000, ASP.Net 2.0, JavaScript, C# Probability and Statistics Database Applications Online Information Systems Social and Behavioural Sciences

Acknowledgements First and foremost, I would like to extend special gratitude to my project supervisor, Professor Ivan Png, for his invaluable advice and direction over the course of this project. Mr. Derek Callow, Regional Marketing Manger (Hong Kong), Google Inc., for his help in jumpstarting my HYP, by pointing me in the right direction and helping to secure an ex-gratia copy of Google Earth Pro for research purposes. Ms. Marie Koh, for her assistance in entering the Census 2000 data set into soft copy. Her assistance was instrumental in allowing the GIS project to be rolled out to the CS3261 IT Marketing students on time. Mr. Alvin Ho Kok Leong, System Programmer (SOC ITU), for being extremely patient and helpful in setting up the project space not only for my HYP web application, but for the module CS3261 - IT Marketing as well. Mr. Darel Finley, programmer extraordinaire, for his amazingly elegant point-inpolygon code, and also his charity in allowing me to use it almost verbatim. Without that piece of inspired programming, this project will certainly have to take an even more arduous route to completion. ;-) Ms. Emilyn Yah, Manager (Public Education & Training), Singapore Elections Department, for advising me the options available for me to secure electoral district demarcations via the appropriate publicly accessible records. Ms. Chong Ting Ting, Singapore Department of Statistics, for pointing me exactly to the Census datasets required for the completion of this project. Last but not least, I would like to take this opportunity to thank all those who helped me in one way or another towards the completion of this project.

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List of Figures

Figure 1: Overview of Database Figure 2: Class Diagram Figure 3: Polygon Rendering Figure 4: Complete render of all Census 2000 Subzones Figure 5: Aljunied GRCs donut-shaped Polygon Figure 6: Cross over method of rendering donut-shaped Polygons Figure 7: Polygon overlay example Figure 8: Grid Square counting method

15 16 18 19 20 21 22 23

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List of Tables

Table 1: Data Requirements Generic GIS Table 2: Data Requirements Predictive Model for Elections Re-districting Table 3: Contested Electoral Divisions over 1997, 2001, 2006 Table 4: Variables Selected for Regression Analysis Table 5: Regression Results

12 12 25 26 30

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Table of Contents Title Abstract Acknowledgement List of Figures List of Tables

References vi ii

i ii iii iv v
ii

1 Introduction
1.1 GIS Platform for Singapore Incorporating Census Data 1.2 Predictive Model of Elections Re-districting

3
3 4

2 Background and Motivation

2.1 GIS 2.2 GIS for Elections Re-districting in Singapore

5
5 7

Augmented by tools afforded by GIS, the most natural way to perform elections forecasting will be to compare the observed results with demographic make up. Monmonier (2001) expounds on this subject in his book, reporting about GIS tools allows for dynamic display the demographic make up of a zone as electoral boundaries are redrawn. 7 Other methods of elections prediction exist apart from the geographical-demographic forms of elections prediction methodology. 8

For example, in Shaffer (1975), one of the ways to predict elections results is the use of statistical methods to extrapolate national level results from key constituencies whose results have been shown to co-vary with the national results. 8 Another example will be futures markets. In 1988, the University of Iowa ran the first prediction markets, called the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM). Berg, Forsythe, Nelson and Reitz (2001) summarized 12 years worth of results from IEM and found that it was highly accurate and outperformed large scale polling organizations. Wolfers and Zitzewitz (2004) also reports that these futures markets are resilient to manipulation due to the profit motive. 8 As the Elections Prediction portion of this project extends from a GIS, the natural method of crafting a suitable prediction model will be via demographic analysis. A thorough literature review of National University of Singapore Political Science theses and reports yielded no prior academic research in this field in the Singapore context. 9 Ostensibly, the way to relate observed recent election results with demographic make up is to run a multiple linear regression to find the significant variables. However, Achen (1992) vigorously dissected this method, arguing that the real factor driving voter behaviour is rational voting with incomplete information. As a result, demographics are relegated to the stature of surrogate measures. 9 Achens argument is stymied in the Singapore context, however. While 2 of the 3 key assumptions of Achens model hold in Singapore, namely (1) Voter rationality, that voters will do the best with the information they have, and (2) Voters are prospective in orientation, that voters will look only to the future, and not base her vote on past successes (or failures), the last assumption does not hold. Achens model also requires the assumption that there are just two parties and they each offer benefits to voters that oscillate over time around a fixed but unknown mean. In Singapore, the ruling Peoples Action Party (PAP)s hegemony has lasted almost 48 years since they came into power in 1959. 10

As such, because this project is an exploratory study into the demographic variables that affect voter behaviour in Singapore, while keeping in mind the limitations that Achen pointed out, this project will nonetheless employ them as a surrogate measure to predict election outcomes. 10 Finally, the system will use the resultant coefficients from the multivariate linear regression to predict election results of arbitrarily drawn Electoral Divisions. 10

3 Systems Development
3.1 Requirement Analysis 3.2 System Architecture 3.3 Problems faced and solutions 19

11
11 13 17

To achieve this, all relevant demographic information is linked to the Subzone table via SubzoneID, which is an identifier in the Subzone table. The use of the ZoneBridge and Zone tables then serves to link groups of Subzones under a common identifier. 19

Predictive Model
3.4 Concept of Elections in Singapore 3.5 Data used 3.6 Choice of variables 3.7 Regression results 3.8 Interpretation of results

24
24 25 26 29 31

4 Conclusion
4.1 Limitations 4.2 Future Development

34
34 35

References

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GIS for Elections

Introduction

With rapid falls in the cost of computing power and telecommunications, Geographical Information Systems (GIS) have become easily available on the personal computer and even through the World Wide Web. This rise can be attributed to the advent of free and accessible GIS software such as Google Earth, and web applications with mapping functionality, such as Google Maps, Microsoft MapPoint, and Yahoo! Maps, among others. Specifically, the release of API for these mass market GIS tools allows for the creation of mash-up applications. The essential purpose of GIS is to provide visualization to support decision making. This application is useful in many contexts, such as real estate market, transport planning, retail store location selection, etc. The primary objective of this project is therefore to build a GIS for Singapore based on the Singapore Master Plan 1998 incorporating demographic data from the Singapore Census 2000. Additionally, the secondary objective to build an application to showcase the usefulness of GIS and statistical analysis in decision-making in this case, an application predicting the effect of changes in electoral boundaries is presented.

1.1

GIS Platform for Singapore Incorporating Census Data

The first objective of this project is to create an application that would leverage on emerging GIS tools, and thus create a Singapore-specific GIS platform. The key challenge is to associate spatial data such as boundaries of zones as defined in Singapore Master Plan 1998 to aspatial data such as demographic make up of a particular zone as defined in Singapore Census 2000.

GIS for Elections 1.2 Predictive Model of Elections Re-districting

One of the features of the generic GIS platform created in the first objective is that the data generated can accommodate extension applications. These can range from being marketing tools to determine the optimal location for retail outlets 1, to sociological uses such as examining voting patterns and Electoral Divisions (Haque, 2007). The application of GIS to Singapore is quite novel. Hence, besides providing a scalable and cost-effective GIS platform, it is important to demonstrate the value-added of such a system. Given the widespread interest in Singapore politics in 2006 due to the General Elections, a very striking application that would attract substantial publicity is to apply the GIS to drawing boundaries for Electoral Districts. Drawing of boundaries is an inherently geographical exercise. However, election boundaries have political implications, and hence, are a sensitive issue. As such, the second objective of this project is to build an application to assist in the drawing of electoral boundaries. The Elections Boundary application will extract the relevant demographic make up of arbitrarily drawn Electoral Divisions via a Census linked layer below. Based on results of past Parliamentary Elections, the system would then apply a multivariate linear regression model which would predict the impact of any re-drawing of boundaries, and hence enable the user to re-draw boundaries in a politically-neutral way.

The developed generic system was successfully rolled out to CS3261 IT Marketing students in Jan-May 2007, for the purpose of building an application extension that would function as described.

GIS for Elections

Background and Motivation

The usefulness of data depends very much on how it is presented. Statistical departments of various nations routinely release large scale datasets as publicly accessible records. However, these records are not readily comprehensible even to the academic, unless one takes the time and effort to analyse the numbers.

2.1

GIS

This is where a GIS comes offers its greatest leverage. Very broadly, GIS are tools that allow spatial and aspatial data to be associated and presented in a visual format. Essentially, the two key elements of a GIS are images that are rendered from spatial data, and associated attributes harvested from aspatial data. Presenting these 2 elements together in one interface affords an intuitive environment for the user to extract information about datasets. There exist several open source GIS applications that could be used to associate spatial and aspatial datasets. These GIS applications range from full fledged GIS applications such as Geographic Resources Analysis Support System (GRASS GIS) to mass market GIS system such as Google Earth, and finally web based mapping applications such Google Maps, Yahoo! Maps and Microsoft MapPoint. Generally speaking, GIS systems can be broken down into a spectrum spanning 2 main categories, namely, GIS software, and web applications that offer mapping functionality. At the former end of the spectrum will lay GRASS GIS, and the latter, Google Maps and the like. Google Earth is an interesting case study as it straddles both ends of this spectrum: while it requires an installation to work, it will not work without web access. The advantages afforded by full fledged GIS software lies in the complexity of its image rendering capabilities. It is not uncommon for GIS software to include features like 3Dimensional cartography, where landscapes are rendered based on elevation, and curved shape boundaries, such that rather than using a series of straight lines to approximate

GIS for Elections winding streets, streams and railways, the system is able to use curves to more accurately represent the landscape (Monmonier, 2001). On the other hand, web applications with mapping functionalities offer the very basic tools available in the GIS array. These include a built-in lowest level of vector-drawn maps or satellite image of a particular region, and the possibility for web developers to add functionality by way of a publicized Application Programming Interface (API). By interacting with the mapping web application through the API, it is possible to render objects of interest, such as Points, Edges and Polygons directly on the maps provided. These objects of interest (i.e. Points, Edges and Polygons) were objects first developed by Mathematician James Corbett, as part of his invention of the Dual Independent Map Encoding (DIME) system, to give eyes for a computer to read and manipulate maps (Cooke, 1998). In topology, a Polygon is a 2-cell because it is 2 dimensional, a Point is a 0-cell, and an Edge is 1-cell. This method of decomposing zones allows a computer to recognise when a Polygon is neighbouring an adjacent Polygon (if they share an Edge). However, a drawback of this method is that the computer only manages to approximate curved boundaries as a series of straight lines, vis--vis the curved-boundary system available in full-fledged GIS software.

GIS for Elections 2.2 GIS for Elections Re-districting in Singapore

There is a requirement for re-districting prior to every Parliamentary Elections, owing to the changes in demography of a region given urban redevelopment or population movement over the time period. A GIS can come in to provide excellent decision support capabilities to cartographers who have to undertake the task of electoral boundaries redistricting. The core of the Electoral Boundary application is the election prediction engine. Based on any re-drawing of boundaries and the consequent change in demographics, the engine must then predict the impact on political support for the various parties. Accordingly, it is vital to develop an accurate election forecasting model, based on the available demographic and other information. There is extensive literature regarding the field of political forecasting with the United States as the main case study. In the Singapore context, however, literature about this field is rather limited. Of particular interest to the scope of this project are political forecasting methodologies that employ the use of GIS and other cartographical tools, such as demographic analysis. Other political forecasting methodologies are briefly mentioned here.

2.2.1

Political Forecasting by Demographic Analysis Augmented by tools afforded by GIS, the most natural way to perform elections forecasting will be to compare the observed results with demographic make up. Monmonier (2001) expounds on this subject in his book, reporting about GIS tools allows for dynamic display the demographic make up of a zone as electoral boundaries are redrawn.

GIS for Elections 2.2.2 Other Political Forecasting Methods Other methods of elections prediction exist apart from the geographicaldemographic forms of elections prediction methodology. For example, in Shaffer (1975), one of the ways to predict elections results is the use of statistical methods to extrapolate national level results from key constituencies whose results have been shown to co-vary with the national results. Another example will be futures markets. In 1988, the University of Iowa ran the first prediction markets, called the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM). Berg, Forsythe, Nelson and Reitz (2001) summarized 12 years worth of results from IEM and found that it was highly accurate and outperformed large scale polling organizations. Wolfers and Zitzewitz (2004) also reports that these futures markets are resilient to manipulation due to the profit motive. In one of the rare articles that discuss elections forecasting in the Singapore context, Leong, Tan and Wong (1989) employed the multi-attribute model to study voter behaviour. Basically, it is believed that the cognitive beliefs held by voters of political candidates impact their affective evaluation and likelihood of voting for them. The study surveyed n=547 respondents, and awarded belief score and importance score to the typical PAP candidates attributes. These scores can then be used to predict voter behaviour in Singapore.

2.2.3

Boundary Mapping & using Overlays to Extract Demographics

In order to afford cartographers the capabilities required to perform re-districting, there is a need to create a system specific to Singapore that can deliver the demographic information based on redrawn Electoral Division boundaries.

GIS for Elections Methods of re-districting without the use of computers would have been far more tedious. In Monmonier (2001), he writes that [From 1812], and for more than a century thereafter to explore different configurations [of districts], [cartographers] spread out their maps on a large floor and tallied district populations by hand or by adding machine. In Singapore, there is currently no publicly accessible application that provides digitized Master Plan boundaries. The system presented in this project includes a database that holds Points, Edges and Polygons that are based on the descriptions of Subzone boundaries from Singapore Master Plan 1998. Additionally, the Census 2000 dataset down to the Subzone level is also linked in the GIS. Subsequently, it is possible for a cartographer to arbitrarily draw new electoral boundaries, and the system will generate a basic set of demographics for this zone based on the Census information.

2.2.4

Elections Prediction As the Elections Prediction portion of this project extends from a GIS, the natural method of crafting a suitable prediction model will be via demographic analysis. A thorough literature review of National University of Singapore Political Science theses and reports yielded no prior academic research in this field in the Singapore context. Ostensibly, the way to relate observed recent election results with demographic make up is to run a multiple linear regression to find the significant variables. However, Achen (1992) vigorously dissected this method, arguing that the real factor driving voter behaviour is rational voting with incomplete information. As a result, demographics are relegated to the stature of surrogate measures.

GIS for Elections Achens argument is stymied in the Singapore context, however. While 2 of the 3 key assumptions of Achens model hold in Singapore, namely (1) Voter rationality, that voters will do the best with the information they have, and (2) Voters are prospective in orientation , that voters will look only to the future, and not base her vote on past successes (or failures), the last assumption does not hold. Achens model also requires the assumption that there are just two parties and they each offer benefits to voters that oscillate over time around a fixed but unknown mean. In Singapore, the ruling Peoples Action Party (PAP)s hegemony has lasted almost 48 years since they came into power in 1959. As such, because this project is an exploratory study into the demographic variables that affect voter behaviour in Singapore, while keeping in mind the limitations that Achen pointed out, this project will nonetheless employ them as a surrogate measure to predict election outcomes. To this end, a system has been created, with an algorithmic implementation of existing cartographical techniques, to effectively approximate the demographics of Electoral Divisions based on the land area it spans. Finally, the system will use the resultant coefficients from the multivariate linear regression to predict election results of arbitrarily drawn Electoral Divisions.

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GIS for Elections

3 3.1

Systems Development Requirement Analysis

There are 2 objectives of this project. Firstly, there was a requirement to create a generic GIS platform for Singapore incorporating Census demographic data, and second, to build an Elections Boundary System. The first of these projects came in the form of a GIS for Retail Location application that was developed by students taking CS3261 IT Marketing in Semester 2 of Academic Year 2006/07.

3.1.1

Requirements for Generic GIS

For a generic GIS in the Singapore context, the main requirement was the ability to input boundary information of Development Guide Plan (DGP) Subzones and Zones into the system as Polygons, and then be able to extract and display these Polygons on screen, overlaying the Map or Satellite Image layer. The boundary information for DGP Subzones is accessible via the DGP Planning Reports2 for each DGP Zone. To make the GIS useful, each DGP Subzone rendered should be linked to some useful aspatial data. Therefore, the ability to associate the Polygons with relevant datasets is another key requirement for this system. In this case, demographic information about each DGP Subzone is accessible via the Singapore Census 2000 report. A summary of the data requirements can be found in Table 1.

There are a collection of about 47 of these reports available in the Singapore-Malaysia Collection of the National University of Singapore Central Library, under call numbers NA 9253.2 S*

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GIS for Elections Table 1: Data Requirements Generic GIS Type of Data Coded Information Spatial Data DGP Subzones, Points, Edges, Polygons Zones Aspatial Data Demographics Distribution of Age, Income, Housing Type, Races at DGP Subzone level

Source Various DGP Planning Reports Singapore Census 2000 Report

The choice of using Master Plan 1998 boundaries, rather than the latest available Master Plan 2003 boundaries is reasonable. Since the latest Singapore Census was conducted in 2000, the boundaries used must necessarily be from the former Master Plan.

3.1.2

Requirements for Predictive Model for Elections Re-districting

As with the GIS for Retail Location project, a new overlay that contains data associating the boundaries of Electoral Divisions and their corresponding results need to be created. The data sets required to meet these requirements is summarized in Table 2. Table 2: Data Requirements Predictive Model for Elections Re-districting Type of Data Coded Information Source Spatial Data Contested Points, Edges, Polygons Report of the Electoral Electoral Boundary Review Divisions Committee 2001, 2006 Aspatial Data Election Results Percentage for PAP Elections Department of Singapore website Another requirement is that the system should also be able to aggregate information from the Census layer below so as to display demographic information regarding Electoral Divisions. Finally, the system should be able to display, based on a pre-computed model, the predicted elections outcome of an arbitrarily drawn Electoral Division within Singapore.

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GIS for Elections 3.2 System Architecture

To achieve the objectives laid out, a purpose built GIS system will have to be created. This section will explore in detail the technologies and methodology employed in this project.

3.2.1

Platform

This section will explain the choice of technologies employed in this project. Very briefly, the technologies used are enumerated in the list below. 1. Google Maps API + JavaScript 2. C# on Microsoft ASP.Net 2.0 3. MSSQL 2000 Against a backdrop of many highly advanced open-source GIS systems, the choice of using Google Maps as the basis of this project might seem restrained. However, the choice is justified by three factors simplicity, ease of development, and more importantly, portability. By simplicity, what is meant is that the GIS base should have just enough features to meet the objectives of this project. The nature of this project is such that all the goals can be met by using a GIS with a minimal feature set. For parsimony and keeping the application lean, the choice of developing on Google Maps, rather than GRASS GIS or even Google Earth was made. Also, compared to state-of-the-art GIS software such as GRASS GIS and Google Earth, Google Maps provide a simple interface for development through its publicly accessible and well documented API. There is also a large repository of peer-to-peer support documentation for this application, most notably the Google Maps Group 3. Additionally, various resources are available on the Internet that document hidden features of the
3

This group is offered by Google under its Google Groups service, and is akin to USENET newsgroups, and topics discussed are usually technical in nature, with members sharing algorithms and work-arounds.

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GIS for Elections API that are not made public yet. These features greatly increase the functionality available to the developer. For example, the GPolygon() class that is used extensively in this project was part of the developmental API that was not made public at the inception of this project. The final factor that Google Maps was the basis on which this project was developed is portability. The clear advantage of a web based application against purely offline GIS software like GRASS GIS and even those that require Internet access like Google Earth is that Google Maps will work without the need to install any specialised software. Armed with a sufficiently advanced web browser4, any user can have access to this application. While it may be argued that users without Internet access will have no access, the overall reach afforded by web applications far outnumber that afforded by applications requiring installation of specific software. The choice of Microsoft ASP.Net 2.0 as the development environment is partly pragmatic in nature. While the ASP.Net 2.0 framework is indeed at the fore in the creation of web applications, another key reason was that Microsoft Visual Studio 2005 was available as a pedagogical tool. The ease of use and extensive online support also made this an attractive platform to develop the system on. Finally, the choice of Microsoft SQL (MSSQL) 2000 as the database for this project is strictly pragmatic in nature. There are obvious compatibility benefits of working with MSSQL 2000 while developing on Visual Studio 2005. While many other database systems, notably MySQL, provide ready support for spatial extensions 5, many of the functions afforded can be emulated on the web server without heavy performance penalties in a project of this size. The choice was thus made to adopt MSSQL 2000 as the database backend of this project.

According to Netapplications.com, an Internet market research firm, as of February 2007, 79.09% of all web browsers used are Internet Explorer, and 14.18% Mozilla Firefox. Both these browsers will support applications built around Google Maps. 5 Spatial extensions are functions in database systems that return objects based on their geometric properties.

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GIS for Elections 3.2.2 Database Design

The design of the database to support the GIS system is simply an implementation of the model invented by Corbett. Polygons (Subzones), Edges and Points are stored in the database as shown in Figure 1. The use of the SubPoint table is instrumental in conserving resources, as Points can be shared between Subzones. The Zone and ZoneBridge tables allow the application accessing this database to aggregate demographic data that is linked to Subzones. Finally, the GridSquare table is used to support the algorithmic implementation of an existing cartographic method of overlaying data.

Figure 1: Overview of Database

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GIS for Elections 3.2.3 Class Diagram

Figure 2: Class Diagram The backend of the system consists of just 5 core classes and 1 class for XML generation. The Point, Edge, Subzone and Grid classes are analogous to the tables of the same name in the database. The ElectoralDistrict class serves as a holding object for the aggregated demographics that is extracted from the underlying Census layer. Finally, the MapClass classs purpose is to generate XML to reduce the number of calls to the database to prevent performance penalties.

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GIS for Elections 3.3 Problems faced and solutions

While the time spent in system design and planning helped to minimise the occurrence of common problems, several challenges presented themselves over the course of implementation. This section will elaborate on these challenges, and the actions undertaken to overcome them.

3.3.1

Storing DGP Subzone in database

The most important part of the database schema in this system was the codification methodology of the spatial attributes. One constraint was that DGP Subzones, which were the lowest level 2-cell polygons in the system, had to be contiguous if they belonged to the same DGP Zone. The method employed to tackle this challenge has been briefly discussed in the sections above. Basically, Corbetts schema of Nodes, Edges and Polygons are replicated on this system, being the Point, Edge and Subzone tables, respectively.

3.3.2

Deletion of Subzones from database

The fact that Subzones routinely shared Points meant that the deletion of Subzones required an extra step to ensure that Points that are shared are not inadvertently deleted as well. This challenge is met with the use of Stored Procedures to identify only Points are that unique to a Subzone (i.e. Points that are not shared), and then mark these Points for deletion.

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GIS for Elections 3.3.3 Extracting and displaying subzones correctly

One of the most pressing problems faced during the creation of the GIS system was that Polygons had to be well built in order to be rendered properly. An example is shown below.

Figure 3: Polygon Rendering For example, in Figure 3, if we were to render a Polygon with the Points in the order [1, 2, 4, 3, 1], the Polygon will be rendered as a well-formed rectangle, as seen on the left. If, in another case, the Polygon was rendered with the Points in the order [1, 2, 3, 4, 1], the hour-glass shaped figure will be rendered instead. Another challenge was that Polygons had to be associative to each other. That is to say, there should be some way for the system to recognise if 2 adjacent Polygons are contiguous or not. The way to solve both problems was to make use of the Edge table in the database. In the first case, since each Edge is defined as beginning at Point A and ending at Point B, the order of Points in a Polygon can be maintained by cross referencing the Edge table when rendering Polygons.

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GIS for Elections In the second case, by doing a simple comparison between Edges during run time, it was possible to find out if 2 Subzones shared an edge or not, and thus know if they were contiguous or not. The final render of all Census 2000 Subzones is shown in Figure 4.

Figure 4: Complete render of all Census 2000 Subzones While implementing this solution, a performance boost was realised. The Subzone, Edge and Point data were extracted to build an XML file detailing the make up of each Polygon in the system, complete with the in-order Point data. In utilizing an XML file as an intermediary between the database and the web server, the number of database calls required to extract Polygon information is significantly cut down.

3.3.4

Associating Spatial and Aspatial Data

For this application to work as a true GIS, relevant aspatial data needs to be linked to the correct Subzone, and if necessary, be aggregated upwards to find yield meaningful information for a particular Zone. To achieve this, all relevant demographic information is linked to the Subzone table via SubzoneID, which is an identifier in the Subzone table. The use of

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GIS for Elections the ZoneBridge and Zone tables then serves to link groups of Subzones under a common identifier.

3.3.5

Donut-shaped polygons (Aljunied)

The problem of donut shaped Polygons arose because one of the Electoral Divisions that was contested in the 2006 General Elections, namely, Aljunied Group Representation Constituency (GRC), was shaped like so (Figure 5).

Figure 5: Aljunied GRCs donut-shaped Polygon The method employed in this case is to cross over at a certain point. The implementation of this solution on Aljunied GRCs boundaries can be seen in the close up in Figure 6. This method allows for the adjoining Polygons to retain their contiguity constraint, while not affecting the extraction of the demographic information from the Census 2000 layer by much.

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GIS for Elections

Figure 6: Cross over method of rendering donut-shaped Polygons 3.3.6 Polygon Overlay

One of the key challenges that have to be addressed in this project is the ability to extract demographic information from the Census 2000 layer via an arbitrarily drawn Election District. The main problem faced was that contrary to initial expectations, rather than Electoral Divisions being a superset of multiple Subzones, it was discovered that Electoral Divisions are defined independently of Subzones. The originally planned modus operandi includes the creation an application that allowed the adding of contiguous Subzones to form Electoral Divisions. However, as the maps of the DGP Zones and the Report of the Electoral Boundary Review Committee are compared, it became clear that the original plan will not work. The next best method is to allow arbitrarily drawn Electoral Divisions, and then overlay these Districts on top of the Census 2000 layer. Demographic statistics were then aggregated based on the land area overlapping, and assigned to the Electoral Division. This would yield a close theoretical approximation of the demography of any arbitrary Electoral Division. For example, in Figure 7, if the blue Polygon spans 40% of A, 15% of B, 30% of C and 5% of D, then in our model, its demography would be made up of 40% of the population of A, 15% of B, and so on.

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GIS for Elections

Figure 7: Polygon overlay example However, to find the overlapping area was not a trivial task. In order to solve this problem, the implementation of an existing cartographic method in algorithm is proposed. In this solution, the map is first divided by Grids. Unique identifiers are then assigned to each of the Grid Squares. The system will then parse each Subzone or Election District, and assign the respective number of Grid Squares to them. Using the Grid Square identifier, it is possible to count the number of Grid Squares that overlap 2 Polygons, and hence calculate the overlapping area. A key assumption for this method is that a Grid Square is assigned to a Polygon once the Polygon spans more than 50% of the Grid Square. To do this, the system first assigns a Point at the middle of each Grid Square. Next, it will check if the Point resides inside the Polygon or not. If it is, then the Grid Square is assigned to the Polygon. For example, in Figure 8, B1 and B2 are assigned to the blue Polygon, but the other Squares are not.

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GIS for Elections

Figure 8: Grid Square counting method While this method does have its drawbacks, such as undercounting at very small scales, good choice of size for each Grid Square does alleviate this shortcoming. For Singapore, a 50m x 50m Grid Square is chosen, and this has been tested and found to be a good size. A key point to note is that the Earths curvature needs to be taken into consideration when converting coordinates into areas. This is because while latitude is of a fixed size anywhere on the globe, the distance a degree of longitude spans can vary as the latitude changes. However, due to the relatively small size of Singapore, we take of longitude and latitude as constants of 111.321 km/degree and 110.567 km/degree respectively.

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GIS for Elections Predictive Model As mentioned earlier, a key objective of this project is to present a Predictive Model of Singapore Elections Re-districting. In order to realize this objective, a multivariate linear regression model is employed to explore demographic variables impact on elections returns in Singapore. The resultant coefficients from the regression will then be applied by the system to yield predicted election results in arbitrarily drawn Electoral Divisions.

3.4

Concept of Elections in Singapore

In accordance to the Constitution of the Republic of Singapore, Part VI, Sections 66(4) and 67, Parliamentary Elections are held no more than 5 years apart. In each Election, political parties contest in one of 2 classes of Electoral Divisions, namely the Single Member Constituency (SMC), and the Group Representation Constituency (GRC). According to the Elections Department of Singapore (ELD), Electoral Divisions are areas within Singapore demarcated by the Prime Minister by law for the purpose of parliamentary elections and presidential elections. Each Electoral Division is sub-divided into many smaller areas known as polling districts. The ELD goes on to explain that SMCs are Electoral Divisions that has a single Member of Parliament (MP) representing the interests of the constituency. The Parliamentary Elections Act requires a minimum of 8 SMCs at any time, and there are 9 SMCs currently. As for GRCs, the ELD explains that a GRC Electoral Division, both in terms of population as well as physical area. A group of MPs represents the interests of those residents in the constituency. At least one of the MPs in the group representing a GRC must also belong to a minority racial community, either the Malay community or the Indian and other minority communities. The GRC system was established in 1988 to ensure that the minority racial communities in Singapore will always be represented in

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GIS for Elections Parliament. To ensure this, the Parliamentary Elections Act requires that at least onequarter of the total number of MPs must be representatives of GRCs. We currently have a total of 14 GRCs, represented by a total of 75 MPs.

3.5

Data used

The data set entered into the Predictive Model is limited, extending only over the past 3 elections, in 1997, 2001 and 2006, and looking only at contested Electoral Divisions. There are a total of 43 contested Electoral Divisions spanning these 3 elections (Table 3). Table 3: Contested Electoral Divisions over 1997, 2001, 2006 1997
ALJUNIED GRC AYER RAJAR SMC BOON LAY SMC BUKIT GOMBAK SMC CHENG SAN SMC CHUA CHU KANG SMC HONG KAH GRC HOUGANG SMC JALAN BESAR GRC KAMPONG GLAM SMC MACPHERSON SMC NEE SOON CENTRAL SMC POTONG PASIR SMC WEST COAST GRC6

2001
AYER RAJAR SMC BUKIT TIMAH SMC CHUA CHU KANG SMC HONG KAH GRC HOUGANG SMC JALAN BESAR GRC JOO CHIAT SMC JURONG GRC MACPHERSON SMC NEE SOON CENTRAL SMC NEE SOON EAST SMC POTONG PASIR SMC TAMPINES GRC

2006
ALJUNIED GRC ANG MO KIO GRC BUKIT PANJANG SMC CHUA CHU KANG SMC EAST COAST GRC HOUGANG SMC JALAN BESAR GRC JOO CHIAT SMC MACPHERSON SMC NEE SOON CENTRAL SMC NEE SOON EAST SMC PASIR RIS-PUNGGOL GRC POTONG PASIR SMC SEMBAWANG GRC TAMPINES GRC YIO CHU KANG SMC

As such, the Predictive Model will simply be an exploratory look at the demographic variables in Singapore Subzones, and their impact on Parliamentary Election results. This is carried out by running a multivariate linear regression on the variables of interest.

For West Coast GRC, Pasir Panjang GRC is used as a surrogate as West Coast GRC is not defined in the Census 1990 report.

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GIS for Elections 3.6 Choice of variables

The dependent variable of each Electoral Division is chosen to be the percentage of votes garnered by Peoples Action Party (PAP) candidates. For the choice of explanatory variables, 7 classes of variables are chosen. In each Electoral Division, these will include the proportion of housing types, the racial make up, gender distribution, the median age, whether this Electoral Division is a GRC or not, whether the zone is contested by the Workers Party (WP) or not, and Economic Data such as unemployment rate and GDP per capita growth rate. These variables are summarised in Table 4. Table 4: Variables Selected for Regression Analysis Variable Class Bins PAP votes Housing Type 1 or 2 room HDB flats 3 room HDB flats 4 room HDB flats 5 room/Other HDB flats Condominiums Landed Properties Others Chinese Malay Indian Others Male Unemployment Rate

Coded Data % of votes that went to PAP % of population residing in each class of housing type

Racial Make Up

% of population that belong to each racial group

Gender Distribution Age GRC WP Economic Variables

% of population that are male Median age of constituents 1 for GRC, 0 for SMC 1 if contested by WP, 0 if otherwise % unemployed in year of elections % growth in year of elections

GDP per capita Growth Rate The choice of demographic variables is briefly explained here. Firstly, Housing Type is chosen because as a class of variables, it serves as the best proxy of a Singapore citizens 26

GIS for Elections economic well-being. The choice of this variable is partly pragmatic, therefore, because while income levels will be the better measure, this information is only available in Census 2000 records at the DGP Zone level. To apportion the Zone level variables amongst its constituent Subzones, and then run a multivariate linear regression nationally at the Subzone level will undoubtedly lead to co-linearity, and hence inaccurate results. Next, Racial Make Up is chosen as one of the predictor variables because Singapores multi-ethnic society is divided into recognisable enclaves in spite of the governments efforts to prevent sectarianism via the Ethnic Integration Policy instituted by the Housing and Development Board of Singapore. The aim is to explore the impact of ethnicity in voter behaviour. Given that the proportion of Post Independence (P65) voters is steadily increasing in Singapore, the median Age is taken as one of the variables to explore its impact. The choice of median, as compared to mean Age is academic since Age generally follows a right-skewed distribution, taking the median will be a more robust measure of the general age group of an Electoral Division. The 2 dummy variables chosen to class each Electoral Division as being GRC or not, and whether it has been contested by WP or not was a result of recent developments in Singapore politics. The GRC system purportedly ensures the representation of minority candidates in Singapore, but this scheme has criticised as a system that allow rookie People's Action Party (PAP) candidates to get into Parliament on the coat tails of heavyweight candidates in their team (Li, 2006). The dummy variable for GRCs was thus chosen to differentiate GRCs from SMCs and test if a discernable advantage was conferred to PAP under the GRC system. The Workers Party, on the other hand, has come to the fore in recent times, branding itself as an alternative to the PAP hegemony. Notably so in the 2006 elections, it garnered

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GIS for Elections 2 seats in the Parliament. A Workers Party MP was elected from Hougang SMC, and the other as a Non-Constituency Member of Parliament (MP), a seat awarded to the best performing loser in the Parliamentary Elections. Therefore, the dummy variable for whether an Electoral Division is contested by WP is included to explore the impact of the WP brand on voter behaviour. Finally, Economic Variables such as unemployment and GDP per capita growth rates were added to access the impact of economic health on election swing.

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GIS for Elections 3.7 Regression results

The demographic data used for the regression analysis is generated from the system via the Polygon Overlay method (Section 3.3.6) of overlapping layers in the GIS for the Parliamentary Elections of 2001 and 2006. Separately, the demographics for the 1997 elections is taken straight from the Census 1990 report rather than the system because the generic GIS only contains the demographics of the 2000 Census. The regression results are summarised in Table 5. A total of 7 multivariate linear regressions were run with separate specifications to test the robustness of the model. These include specifications: (i) taking only the economic factors; (ii) taking only the racial make up; (iii) taking only housing types; (iv) Full Model; (v) one that takes an interaction between all Electoral Divisions and SMCs (vi) one that is based solely on SMCs; and finally, (vii) one that is based solely on GRCs; In Table 5, some of the bins such as Race-Others and Housing-Others are not available. These variables have been purposefully removed as their values are linearly correlated with the other variables of their respective classes. Also, Housing-3 room is omitted in the Housing Type dimension of Specification (vii) as there is linear co-linearity for Housing Types for GRCs, owing to the low proportion of Housing-Others in GRCs.

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GIS for Elections Table 5: Regression Results Specification (i) Economy only Coefficients (Std error) Constant pctChinese pctChineseSMC pctMalay pctMalaySMC pctIndian pctIndianSMC medianAge pctMale hse12room hse3room hse4room hse5room hseCondo hseLanded GRC WP unempRate gdpGrowth df R Adjusted R F-statistic (ii) Race only (iii) Housing Type only (iv) Full Model (v) All Electoral Divisions (Interaction) (vi) SMCs only (vii) GRCs only

0.301 (0.843) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -0.007 (0.006) 0.826 (1.577) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.024 (0.034) -0.098 (0.039)** 0.086 (0.041)** -0.344 (0.221)

5.653 (2.562) -7.059 (3.234)** n.a. -6.156 (3.208)* n.a. -6.061 (3.708) n.a. 0.006 (0.006) 3.203 (2.318) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.003 (0.033) 0.082(0.038)** n.a. n.a.

1.586 (2.522) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. -0.007 (0.005) -1.509 (3.740) 0.073 (0.722) 0.061 (0.677) 0.039 (0.748) 0.000 (0.739) 2.323 (0.921)** -1.109 (1.046) 0.034 (0.036) -0.072 (0.037)* n.a. n.a.

3.421 (5.471) -1.848 (5.221) n.a. -0.937 (5.542) n.a. -0.360 (5.649) n.a. -0.005 (0.012) -1.287 (3.623) -0.476 (0.691) -0.349 (0.648) -0.698 (0.719) -0.431 (0.766) 0.913 (0.945) -1.257 (0.954) 0.004 (0.033) -0.047 (0.045) 0.067 (0.063) -0.290 (0.191)

-0.338 (5.887) 1.174 (5.493) -0.258 (0.241) 1.993 (5.789) -0.392 (0.597) 0.350 (5.745) 3.083 (2.093) -0.006 (0.013) -0.202 (3.656) -0.033 (0.736) 0.103 (0.699) -0.272 (0.760) -0.004 (0.809) 1.704 (1.055) -0.806 (0.984) n.a. -0.053 (0.046) 0.068 (0.068) -0.271 (0.190)

-1.840 (11.535) 1.193 (10.743) n.a. 2.464 (10.885) n.a. 2.975 (12.178) n.a. 0.011 (0.015) 0.725 (4.097) 0.326 (0.966) 0.448 (0.944) 0.283 (1.047) -0.059 (1.204) 3.343 (2.225) -1.158 (1.209) n.a. -0.004 (0.061) -0.001 (0.092) -0.614 (0.245)**

-0.497 (3.383) 0.847 (4.004) n.a. 1.123 (4.380) n.a. 2.823 (3.472) n.a. -0.058 (0.007)** 2.990 (1.917) 0.480 (0.448) n.a. -0.368 (0.203) -0.036 (0.102) 0.240 (0.326) -0.324 (0.170) n.a. -0.074 (0.022)* 0.274 (0.030)** -0.270 (0.077)*

42 0.308 0.193 2.674

42 0.417 0.300 3.570

42 0.443 0.270 2.550

42 0.652 0.458 3.367

42 0.685 0.470 3.192

26 0.834 0.640 4.298

15 0.996 0.969 37.206

*** Significant at 99% level; ** Significant at 95% level; * Significant at 90% level.

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GIS for Elections 3.8 Interpretation of results

To develop the Predictive Model, regressions were run with different specifications, corresponding to each of the dimensions of (i) Economy, (ii) Race, and (iii) Housing Type. The results show an increase in R across Specifications (i) through (iv), culminating in Specification (iv) as the Full Model. 3.8.1 Predictive Model

This section will describe the features of Specifications (i) through (iv), explaining why Specification (iv) is taken as the Predictive Model. Starting from Specification (i), there is a positive correlation between Unemployment rate and vote swing towards the PAP. Additionally there is a negative correlation between per capita GDP growth and the same. This effect is also reflected in the results from Specification (iv), suggesting that Singapore citizens will tend to vote for the PAP when the economy is relatively bad. This will also suggest that Singapore citizens are more likely to vote for Opposition parties when the economy is doing well. In Specification (ii), the coefficients suggest that Race plays a significant role in prediction of Election results. However, its role becomes diminished when interacted with the dimensions of Economy and Housing Type in Specification (iv). Next, examination of the Housing Type dimension in Specification (iii), there is strong evidence in the results to suggest that any additional proportion of Condominiums in an Electoral Division tend to swing the vote PAPs way. Looking at Specification (iv), the effect becomes more apparent. Notably, the proportion of condominiums in an Electoral Division is the only housing variable that shows a positive correlation with a vote swing towards PAP. This positive correlation suggests that Condominium dwellers may be pro-incumbent. Considering that the Housing dimension in this model is essentially a proxy of a

31

GIS for Elections Singapore citizens economic well-being, it would be logical that a Singaporean who is economically well-off under the current government will want to keep it in power. In Specification (iv) however, the results show that no individual variable was significant. In spite of this, the overall specification seems to be a rather good model, as the Fstatistic is near 4. This suggests that this model can be relatively reliable in generating interpolated results from an arbitrary demographic data set. As such, the Full Model is the one employed in the GIS for Elections system as the Predictive Model. In general, there is evidence to indicate that in Singapore, voter behaviour is influenced much more by factors in the Economic dimension (e.g. Housing, Unemployment rate, GDP growth) rather than natural Demographics (e.g. Age, Gender, Race). A probable explanation is that there is a high level of pragmatism amongst Singapore citizens. Additionally, there is a small but significant vote swing for the Opposition when Workers Party challenges at the polls, showing that its brand has a statistically significant impact on Singaporeans. Also, there is no evidence from the regression to suggest that the GRC system confers an advantage to the PAP.

3.8.2

Checks on Robustness

Several other regressions with were run with different specifications to check on the robustness of the model. First, the economic variables were omitted one at a time to negate the effect of correlation between the 2 economic variables. The results show that that there is not much difference between these specifications and the Full Model. Another specification replaced the economic variables with 2 dummy variables for elections 2001 and 2006 respectively. Since the data set covers only 3 elections, and the 2 economic variables are necessarily the same values for the same year, the dummy variables and the economic variables are highly correlated. Hence, about the same level of significance for the dummy variables was noted. This specification also had no effect on other coefficients. 32

GIS for Elections 3.8.3 SMC-GRC divide

Apart from the demographic dimensions used to develop the Predictive Model, 3 other regressions were run with Specifications (v) through (vii). This was done to explore any possible differences between SMC and GRC elections. Specifications (vi) and (vii) show the results of a regression that take into account only SMCs and only GRCs respectively. From the results, there appear to be differences between SMC and GRC elections. For instance, in GRC elections, older voters tend to vote against the PAP. Additionally, in GRC elections, there is evidence to suggest that a Workers Party contest will reduce PAPs vote. However, rather than exemplifying the impact of the Workers Party brand name in GRC elections, this effect might be due to a selection bias the Workers Party may have placed stronger candidates in GRCs and weaker ones in SMCs, thus causing this disparity. Finally, Specification (v) was run to examine if there exist any racial bias in SMC elections. To do so, additional variables that show the interaction between Race and SMC (pctChineseSMC, pctMalaySMC, pctIndianSMC) are included in the regression. However, none of the interaction variables are significant, showing that racial bias is either non existent, or not pronounced in SMC elections.

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GIS for Elections

Conclusion

In summary, this project details the implementation of a GIS for Singapore including demographic information from the Census. Additionally, the GIS seek to provide a platform for multiple applications such as retail location optimisation. As a demonstration of the value-added of a GIS, the project included the development of a GIS enabled Predictive Model for Elections Re-districting. In the process, a technique for calculating the area overlay between 2 polygons is presented. A notable trend derived from the Predictive Model is that Singapore citizens vote based more on Economic factors (e.g. Unemployment rate, GDP growth rate, Housing Type) than natural Demographic factors (e.g. Age, Gender, Race). Also, there is a small but significant vote swing for the Opposition when Workers Party challenges at the polls, suggesting that the Workers Party brand has a statistically significant impact.

4.1

Limitations

However, there are key limitations to the Predictive Model that have to be taken into account when considering the results of the multivariate linear regression. These limitations are described below.

4.1.1

Self-Selection Bias

PAPs hegemony in the Singapore political domain means that they contest all seats in every election. This is in contrast to the Opposition parties in Singapore, who pick and choose specific Electoral Divisions to contest. This situation arises because according to Section 28 (Parliamentary Elections Act) of the Singapore Statutes, the deposit of $13,500 per candidate may be forfeited if they fail to garner 12.5% of the total votes cast. As such, the Opposition needs to have a certain belief of their chances before they contest for an Electoral Division. Subsequently, the regression coefficients will tend towards the Opposition.

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GIS for Elections 4.1.2 Census Cycle

The Census in Singapore is conducted once every 10 years, and at the time of this report, the Census cycle is nearing its end the next Census will be held in 2010. Because of this, the demographics and boundaries used in the Predictive Model are rather dated, and thus may not be reflective of the current population distribution. An additional caveat is that moving variables such as median age will not be accurately tracked by the predictive model. This is because while the predictive model requires the median age of a zones population at the Election years, the data available is only from the Census.

4.1.3

System does not take into account current affairs

As the system uses Census data as its inputs, it will not be reflective of current affairs. While the Predictive Model has attempted to negate this effect with the use of economic variables in the regression, an alternative model that takes into account measures of current affairs such as opinion polls might produce more accurate results.

4.2

Future Development

Listed below are several suggestions for future developments to this project. 4.2.1 Scalable for more granular data

The system was designed to be scalable to finer granularity in its base data set. The current lowest 2-cell that is linked to aspatial data is the DGP Subzone, and this limitation is a direct result of the limits imposed by the available data set. However, where data at finer granularity is present, slight modifications to the database will allow the system to set the lowest 2-cell as fine as block/postal-code level. Data at finer granularity will yield better predictions. For example, the current form of Polygon overlay takes into account neighbouring districts demographics even if the

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GIS for Elections additional area is an open space. With data at finer granularity, the system will account for changes in demographics only if an apartment block is selected, for example. 4.2.2 Add advanced spatial awareness to database

Stricter constraints can be imposed to the GIS to further enhance its usability. For example, the current system does not take into account the scenario if 2 polygons on the Census 2000 overlap it will simply double count if demographics were to be extracted to a higher layer. A possible solution is to port the database over to one that supports spatial extensions, and then impose stricter constraints on the topographical objects.

4.2.3

Leverage on Google Maps APIs development

An advantage of developing on Google Maps via its API is that as the API becomes more advanced, more features can be added to the system. Future developers of this system should consult the state-of-the-art and leverage new functionalities as they become available.

4.2.4

Underlying system can be used for other marketing purposes as well

As demonstrated in this project and the project for CS3261 GIS for Retail location, the generic GIS system was built to be extensible to other meaningful GIS projects as well. For example, a proposed extension will be to explore the relative connectivity of Subzones based on the number of transportation hubs (e.g. MRT stations, bus stops, bus interchanges).

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GIS for Elections

References
Achen, Christopher H. (1992) Social Psychology, Demographic Variables, and Linear Regression: Breaking the Iron Triangle in Voting Research in Political Behaviour, Vol. 14, No. 3, pp 195-211 Berg, Joyce, Robert Forsythe, Forrest Nelson and Thomas Rietz (2001) Results from a Dozen Years of Election Futures Markets Research, in Handbook of Experimental Economic Results Cooke, Donald F. (1998) Topology and TIGER: The Census Bureaus Contribution, in The History of Geographic Information Systems: Perspectives from the Pioneers, pp 47-57 Elections Department of Singapore, Types of Electoral Divisions, http://www.elections.gov.sg/types_electoral.htm, 12 March 2007 GRASS GIS, GRASS GIS: About, in GRASS GIS, http://grass.ibiblio.org/intro/general.php, 12 March 2007 Haque, Imran (2007) GCensus: Using Google Earth for Census Analysis, in ExtremeTech, http://www.extremetech.com/article2/0,1697,2102564,00.asp, 13 March 2007 Housing and Development Board, Buying a resale flat: Ethnic Group Eligibility in HDB Infoweb, http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10201p.nsf/WPDis/Buying%20A %20Resale%20FlatEthnic%20Group%20Eligibility? OpenDocument&SubMenu=Policies, 21 March 2007 Korzi, Michael J. (2000) Lapsed Memory? The Roots of American Public Opinion Research in Polity, Vol. 33, No.1 (Autumn, 2000), pp. 49-75. Leong, Tan and Wong (1989) Voting behaviour in Singapore: A preliminary investigation from a multi-attribute attitudinal perspective in Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Vol. 6, No. 2, pp 293-305 Li Xue Ying (2006) GRCs make it easier to find top talent: SM in The Straits Times, 27 June 2006 Monmonier, Mark (2001) Bushmanders & Bullwinkles: How Politicians Manipulate Electronic Maps and Census Data to Win Elections, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 2001, esp. pp 3-4, 104-120

GIS for Elections Shaffer, William R. (1975) Simple and Inexpensive Election Prediction: A Practical Alternative, in The Western Political Quarterly, Vol. 28, No 3, pp 506-515 Singapore Statutes, Parliamentary Elections Act Cap. 218; Constitution of the Republic of Singapore in Singapore Statutes Online, http://statutes.agc.gov.sg/ Wolfers, Justin and Eric Zitzewitz (2004) Prediction Markets, in Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol 18, No. 2, pp 107-126

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