Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

Market Outlook
June 18, 2013
Dealers Diary
Indian markets are expected to open flat with a negative bias tracking marginally
negative movement in SGX Nifty in the opening trade. Most of the Asian indices
are trading in the negative zone.
The US markets which rallied higher in the opening trade saw selling pressure in
the afternoon due to lingering worries about the outlook for the Federal Reserve's
stimulus program. The stocks closed mostly higher at the end of the day with the
major indices gaining 0.7-0.8%, although lower than the high point of the day.
The European markets finished in positive territory on Monday, rebounding from
the weakness of the prior trading week, as investors eagerly anticipated the results
of the two-day FOMC meeting that will begin in the U.S. on Tuesday.
Meanwhile, Indian markets extended the gains of Friday after languishing in the
negative territory in the morning trade. The markets which seemed disappointed
with the RBIs decision to which kept the key policy rates unchanged, rose higher in
the afternoon trade to post gains of ~0.7% for the day.
Markets Today
The trend deciding level for the day is 19,252 / 5,825 levels. If NIFTY trades above
this level during the first half-an-hour of trade then we may witness a further rally
up to 19,419 19,511 / 5,880 5,910 levels. However, if NIFTY trades below
19,252 / 5,825 levels for the first half-an-hour of trade then it may correct up to
19,159 18,992 / 5,795 5,740 levels.
Indices
SENSEX
NIFTY
S1
PIVOT
R1
R2
18,992
5,740
19,159
5,795
19,252
5,825
19,419
5,880
19,511
5,910
RBI maintains status quo on rates; along expected lines

Trade deficit widens to USD20.1bn in May 2013
TRAI lowers roaming charges for calls, SMSs
MM forms a global alliance with Spain's CIE Automotive
JSW Steel reports crude steel production numbers for May 2013
` cr
FII
MFs
Purch
3,378
592
Sales
3,688
554
Net
(310)
38
MTD
(1,271)
(597)
YTD
80,566
(12,674)
FII Derivatives (June 17, 2013)

` cr
Index Futures
Stock Futures
Purch
1,790
2,167
Sales
2,111
1,690
Net
(321)
477
Open Interest
11,672
29,111
Gainers / Losers
Company
Gainers
Price (`)
chg (%)
Company
Aurobindo Phar
181
6.5
Adani Power
United Phos
146
5.4
MMTC
Losers
Price (`)
chg (%)
44
(7.5)
163
(5.0)
Godrej Cons
819
4.7
JSW Energy
49
(4.4)
M&M
989
4.4
Gujarat State Pet
53
(3.7)
M&M Fin
264
4.2
Ranbaxy Lab
365
(3.4)
www.angelbroking.com
(Close)
0.8
0.7
42
5,850
MID CAP
0.3
20
6,201
SMALL CAP
0.4
23
5,795
BSE HC
0.5
43
8,758
BSE PSU
0.1
6,327
BANKEX
0.4
59 13,684
AUTO
1.9
204 10,901
METAL
148 19,326
(0.1)
(11)
7,930
OIL & GAS
0.6
55
8,600
BSE IT
0.8
45
6,038
(Pts)
(Close)
Global Indices
Chg (%)
Dow Jones
0.7
NASDAQ
0.8
29
3,452
FTSE
0.4
22
6,330
Nikkei
2.7
347 13,033
Hang Sang
1.2
257 21,226
Straits Times
0.7
22
3,183
(0.3)
(5)
2,156
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
INFY
0.5
0.2
$42.3
WIT
2.1
0.2
$7.5
Shanghai Com
110 15,180
IBN
1.7
0.7
$41.7
HDB
(0.6)
(0.2)
$37.6
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,184
711
Declines
1,117
624
131
102
Unchanged
Net Inflows (June 14, 2013)
(Pts)
Nifty
Advances / Declines
Refer detailed news analysis on the following page
Chg (%)
BSE Sensex
Indian ADR
S2
News Analysis
Domestic Indices
Volumes (` cr)
BSE
1,549
NSE
8,482
Market Outlook
June 18, 2013
RBI maintains status quo on rates; along expected lines

As expected, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), in its Mid Quarter Monetary Policy
Review, maintained status quo on policy rates. The key policy rate ie Repo Rate
stands unchanged at 7.25%. Consequently, the Reverse Repo Rate stands
unchanged at 6.25% and the Marginal Standing Facility Rate and Bank Rate stand
unchanged at 8.25%. The Cash Reserve Ratio continues to remain at 4.00% of
banks NDTL. The RBI has maintained its cautious guidance and indicated that its
policy stance would be determined by the 1) growth, 2) inflation and 3) balance of
payments (BoP) situation. We expect an additional 50bp repo rate cut in FY2014;
the timing of the same is likely to be data-determined.
Policy cautious ahead of inflationary and BoP risks

Despite the considerable moderation in headline WPI inflation (to 4.7% in May
2013 from an average of 7.4% in FY2013), the RBI has maintained a cautious
stance in its policy. This can be attributed to 1) anticipation of upside pressures on
inflation through second-round effects and 2) risk of a reversal in capital flows.
Since May 2013, the INR has depreciated by 7% and this is likely to offset the
positive impact of softening global commodity prices and stoke imported inflation.
Our trade deficit for April and May 2013 has widened to USD37.9bn as against
USD30.9bn in the corresponding period of the previous year. In addition, as the
RBI acknowledged, capital flows have moderated reflecting risk-off sentiment
triggered by apprehensions of possible tapering off of quantitative easing by the
US Fed. So far in June, the equity markets have witnessed capital outflow of
USD156mn by foreign institutional investors (FIIs) as against a robust inflow of
USD3.8bn by them in May 2013.
The RBI has also emphasized upside risks to inflation from second-round effects of
high food prices and the recent increase in administered fuel prices on the overall
trajectory of inflation. In this context, we believe that 1) the onset of a normal
monsoon, 2) decent rabi production in FY2013 and 3) expectations of moderate
hikes in minimum support prices (MSP) are likely to support moderation in food
inflation and reduce the divergence between Wholesale Price Index (WPI) and
Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation.
Policy stance to be determined by growth, inflation and BoP

The RBI reiterated that its policy stance would continue to be determined by the
trajectory of growth and inflation as well as assessment of the BoP situation. We
expect additional repo rate cuts of about 50bp in FY2014; the timing of the same
is likely to be data-determined. We expect the trajectory for inflation to remain in
the RBIs comfort-zone. We believe that as prices have eased, the demand for gold
is likely to be front-loaded and a likely moderation in gold imports going forward
along with stabilization in the INR are likely to narrow the trade deficit. This could
provide the RBI with headroom to cut rates in July 2013.
Trade deficit widens to USD 20.1bn in May 2013

Provisional data released by the commerce ministry shows that Indias exports
declined by 1.1% yoy in May 2013 despite a 6.6% yoy decline a year ago. Growth
in imports during the month continued to be led by 9.1% yoy growth in non-oil
imports (as against a 15.5% yoy de-growth in May 2012). Oil imports reported
Market Outlook
June 18, 2013
modest 3.0% yoy growth during the month as against 10.9% yoy in May 2012.
The total imports touched a record-high of USD44.6bn with 7.0% yoy growth
during the month. As a consequence, the monthly trade deficit widened to
USD20.1bn, a seven month high, from USD17.8bn in the previous month and
USD17bn in May 2012. The sharp INR depreciation since May 2013 could offset
the positive impact of softening global commodity prices. The trade deficit for April
May of 2013-14 is estimated at USD37.9bn, higher than the deficit of
USD30.9bn during April May of 2012-13.
According to media reports gold and silver imports are likely to have soared by
about 90% following a 138% surge in April 2013. We continue to believe that this
can be mainly attributed to front-loaded demand for gold.
Trade deficit for May 2013

May-13
Trade balance
Exports
Imports
Growth
Export
Import
Non oil
Oil
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
(20.1)
24.5
44.6
(17.8)
24.2
42.0
(9.8)
30.7
40.5
(14.7)
26.6
41.3
(20.0)
25.7
45.7
(17.8)
25.5
43.4
(1.1)
7.0
9.1
3.0
1.7
11.0
14.9
3.9
6.6
(4.3)
2.8
(16.1)
5.6
3.0
(3.2)
15.7
1.2
6.3
5.3
8.2
0.6
8.3
1.2
25.5
TRAI lowers roaming charges for calls, SMSs

Telecom regulator TRAI announced reduction in the national mobile phone
roaming charges, but said there will be no free national roaming as of now, in a
partial relief to operators, some of whom had opposed a proposal to completely
abolish roaming charges. The sectoral regulator has also come out with
conditional free national roaming plans, a move that will bring down cellphone
roaming charges. The changes will come into effect from next month. TRAI has
reduced ceilings for national roaming calls and SMS and instituted a new regime
for providing flexibility to telecom service providers to customize tariffs for national
roamers through Special Tariff Vouchers and Combo Vouchers. It has also
mandated two types of free national roaming plans to be provided by all telecom
service providers. These changes will come into effect from July 1, 2013. The
ceiling tariffs prescribed by TRAI in 2007 were `1.40 per minute for outgoing local
calls and `2.40 per minute for outgoing STD calls while on national roaming.
These ceilings have been reduced to `1 per minute and `1.50 per minute,
respectively. Similarly, the ceiling tariffs for incoming calls while on national
roaming have been reduced from `1.75 per minute to 75 paise per minute. Tariffs
for outgoing SMS while on national roaming, which were earlier under
forbearance, have now been capped: outgoing SMS (local) at `1 per SMS and
outgoing SMS (STD) at `1.50 per SMS. Incoming SMS will remain free of charge.
TRAI has also mandated the service providers to offer special plans for roaming
subscribers in which subscribers can avail of partially free roaming, or fully free
roaming in lieu of payment of fixed charges.
The present exercise to review national roaming tariffs was initiated by TRAI earlier
this year in the context of decline in costs and the declared intent in the New
Market Outlook
June 18, 2013
Telecom Policy-2012 to move towards One Nation-Free Roaming throughout the

country. The present exercise to review national roaming tariffs was initiated by
TRAI earlier this year in the context of decline in costs and the declared intent in the
New Telecom Policy-2012 to move towards One Nation-Free Roaming throughout
the country. We currently maintain our Neutral view on the overall telecom sector.
MM forms a global alliance with Spain's CIE Automotive

Mahindra & Mahindra (MM) and CIE Automotive (CIE), Spain has entered into a
global alliance for the automotive component business. The agreement involves
amalgamation of all the component companies of Mahindra Systech (i.e.
Mahindra Forgings - MFL, Mahindra Ugine Steel, Mahindra Composites,
Mahindra Hinoday, Mahindra Gears and Metalcastello) with CIEs European
forging business, which will be rechristened as Mahindra CIE. CIE Automotives will
hold ~51% stake in the new entity, while MM will hold ~20% stake. The remaining
~29% stake will be held by the public.
The transaction involves cross investments by both the groups. According to the
terms of the agreement, MM will invest EUR96.24mn (`739.25cr) through its
subsidiaries for a 13.5% stake in CIE Automotive at a price of EUR6/ share,
making it CIE's second largest shareholder. MM would also nominate two
Directors to the CIE Board. In turn, CIEs Brazilian listed subsidiary, Autometal will
invest in the component business of Mahindra Systech. Additionally, MM will also
buy Mahindra Ugine Steel's 51% stake in Mahindra Sanyo Special Steel Private
Limited (MSSSPL) for `214.33cr and surplus land for `126cr.
Exhibit 1: Stake sale by MM

Company name
Stake (%)
Valuation (` cr)
Mahindra Forgings
53.0
393
Mahindra Hinoday
65.0
269
Mahindra Composites
30.4
10
Source: Company, Angel Research
The share sale by MM has triggered open-offers in MFL and Mahindra

Composites, which have been separately announced. Further, the existing
shareholders in the Mahindra Systech's component businesses will be issued MFL
shares according to the swap ratio as mentioned below.
Exhibit 2: No of shares of MFL to be issued for every 100 share

Company
Mahindra Hinoday Industries
110
Mahindra Composites
90
Mahindra Investments (India)
17
Mahindra Gears India
20
Mahindra Ugine Steel
284
PIA 3
105
Source: Company, Angel Research
Swap Ratio
Market Outlook
June 18, 2013
Outlook and valuation: We see this development as a major boost to MM's

ambitions of emerging as a global player in the automotive component business.
The new entity under the CIE management will have an enhanced product
portfolio, access to newer geographies and superior technical expertise in the
automotive component business. While the entire transaction is likely to involve a
cash outflow of ~`410cr for MM, the major chunk (~`340cr) of it will be towards
buying stake in MSSSPL and surplus land from Mahindra Ugine Steel. We believe
that the deal is positive for the MM shareholders as it has led to value unlocking of
the subsidiaries considering that MM has fetched premium valuations for its stake
sale. We would be watchful of the further developments on this front. We
recommend an Accumulate rating on MM stock with SOTP based target price of
`1,090.
JSW Steel reports crude steel production numbers for May

2013
JSW Steel reported crude steel production numbers for May 2013 after its merger
with JSW Ispat w.e.f 1st June 2013. The Crude steel production for May 2013 from
all the three plants namely, Vijayanagar, Salem and Dolvi grew by 40.0% yoy to
1mn tonne. The rolled flat and rolled long production grew by 57.0% and 13.0%
yoy to 0.8mn tonne and 0.2mn tonne respectively. However, these numbers are
not directly comparable to their May 2012 figures since May 2012 numbers does
not include contribution from the erstwhile JSW Ispats Dolvi plant because the
appointed date for the scheme of amalgamation was 1st July 2012. We maintain
our Neutral view on JSW Steel.
Economic and Political News
RBI policy stance not totally unexpected: FICCI

RBI's status quo influenced by external factors: Rangarajan
Govt allows gold exports from SEZs after value addition
FDI caps in different sectors could be revisited: FM
Indirect tax collection up 3.8% in April-May
Corporate News
L&T bids for Rs 4K-cr defence contract; bullish on foreign mkts

Era Infra bags `384cr contract from Delhi Metro
Jet Airways enters into code share pact with Air France KLM
GMR gets respite in Male Airport issue
Tata Motors inks pact with NSDC to provide jobs to J&K youth
Tata Coffee eyes acquisition in Europe to grow instant coffee business
NTPC's proposed North Karnapura plant gets back coal linkage
Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Financial Express, Mint
Market Outlook
June 18, 2013
Global economic events release calendar
Date
Time
Country Event Description
Unit
Period
Bloomberg Data
Last Reported Estimated
June 18, 2013
2:00PM
UK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
May
2.40
--
6:00PM
US
Housing Starts
Thousands
May
853.00
950.00
6:00PM
US
Building permits
Thousands
May
1,005.00
988.00
% Change
May
(0.40)
0.20
Jun 19
0.25
0.25
6:00PM
US
Consumer price index (mom)
June 19, 2013
11:30PM
US
FOMC rate decision
June 20, 2013
1:00PM
Germany PMI Manufacturing
Value
Jun A
49.40
--
1:00PM
Germany PMI Services
Value
Jun A
49.70
--
7:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Jun A
(21.90)
--
7:30PM
US
Existing home sales
7:30PM
US
Consumer Confidence
7:30PM
US
New home sales
June 26, 2013
6:00PM
US
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
June 27, 2013
1:25PM
Germany Unemployment change (000's)
2:00PM
UK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
6:30AM
China
PMI Manufacturing
Value
2:00PM
UK
PMI Manufacturing
4:30PM
UK
BOE Announces rates
5:15PM
Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates
6:00PM
US
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
June 25, 2013
July 1, 2013
July 4, 2013
July 5, 2013
Million
May
4.97
5.00
S.A./ 1985=100
Jun
76.20
--
Thousands
May
454.00
--
% Change
1Q T
2.40
--
Thousands
Jun
21.00
--
1Q F
0.60
--
Jun
50.80
--
Value
Jun
51.30
--
% Ratio
Jul 4
0.50
0.50
Jul 4
0.50
--
Thousands
Jun
175.00
--
6:00PM
US
Unnemployment rate
Jun
7.60
--
July 9, 2013
7:00AM
China
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
% Change
Jun
2.10
--
July 10, 2013
4:29PM
China
Exports YoY%
% Change
Jun
1.00
--
July 15, 2013
7:30AM
China
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Jun
9.20
--
7:30AM
China
Real GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q
7.70
--
11:30AM
Germany GDP nsa (YoY)
% Change
2Q P
(1.40)
--
2:30PM
Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)
% Change
2Q A
(0.20)
--
August 14, 2013
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
June 18, 2013
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
11.4
9.2
6.0
4.0
2.0
Apr-13
Jun-12
Mfg. PMI
58.0
7.5
Mar-13
(4.0)
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
(%)
8.0
(1.0) (0.6)
(0.7)
(2.0)
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends
Services PMI
8.1
7.3
7.3
7.2
7.3
7.3
56.0
5.7
4.9
4.7
54.0
52.0
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
Apr-12
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

(%)
48.0
Mar-12
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
50.0
Jul-12
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
(0.1)
May-12
4QFY13
3QFY13
2QFY13
1QFY13
4QFY12
3QFY12
2QFY12
1QFY12
4QFY11
3QFY11
2QFY11
1QFY11
4QFY10
3QFY10
Source: CSO, Angel Research
9.0
(2.0)
Jan-13
4.7 4.8
2.3
0.5
Dec-12
5.1 5.4 5.2
3.4
2.5
2.0
Nov-12
6.0
2.5
Oct-12
6.5
Feb-13
7.5
Sep-12
7.7
Aug-12
8.6
8.4
8.0
9.9
Jul-12
9.5
9.3
2QFY10
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Exports yoy growth
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Repo rate
(%)
9.00
Imports yoy growth
15.0
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
8.00
7.00
6.00
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
Jun-12
May-12
0.0
5.00
4.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Jun-13
May-13
Apr-13
Mar-13
Feb-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Oct-12
Sep-12
Aug-12
(15.0)
Jul-12
3.00
Market Outlook
June 18, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
FY14E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Agri / Agri Chemical

Rallis
Neutral
139
2,706
1,657
1,906
14.1
14.1
7.7
8.9
18.1
15.6
3.8
3.2
22.2
21.9
1.6
1.3
United Phosphorus
Buy
140
232
6,203
10,298
11,310
16.5
16.5
20.5
23.2
6.8
6.0
1.1
1.0
18.0
17.4
0.6
0.5
Amara Raja Batteries
Buy
247
285
4,211
3,418
3,892
14.5
14.5
18.5
20.4
13.3
12.1
3.2
2.6
26.6
23.8
1.3
1.0
Apollo Tyres
Neutral
69
3,458
13,852
15,487
11.4
11.5
12.8
14.9
5.3
4.6
0.9
0.7
17.5
17.3
0.4
0.4
Ashok Leyland
Buy
21
27
5,707
14,038
16,442
7.6
8.7
1.1
2.2
20.5
9.6
1.8
1.6
6.2
12.5
0.5
0.4
Automotive Axle#
Neutral
234
353
834
965
9.3
10.6
17.3
27.1
13.5
8.6
1.3
1.2
9.5
14.0
0.5
0.4
Bajaj Auto
Buy
1,708
2,056
49,428
22,684
25,908
18.0
18.5
117.3
137.1
14.6
12.5
5.2
4.2
39.9
37.2
1.8
1.5
Bharat Forge
Neutral
222
5,176
6,198
6,793
14.6
14.9
14.5
17.3
15.3
12.9
2.0
1.8
13.6
14.7
0.9
0.8
Bosch India*
Neutral
8,981
28,199
9,821
11,394
17.0
17.3
373.5
438.7
24.0
20.5
4.3
3.7
18.0
17.9
2.6
2.2
CEAT
Buy
105
170
361
5,325
5,974
8.4
8.3
40.8
48.5
2.6
2.2
0.4
0.4
17.3
17.6
0.2
0.2
Exide Industries
Buy
126
150
10,672
7,053
8,061
14.2
14.5
7.8
9.1
16.0
13.8
2.7
2.4
18.1
18.2
1.2
1.0
FAG Bearings*
Neutral
1,441
2,395
1,525
1,742
14.5
15.7
88.4
109.5
16.3
13.2
2.4
2.0
15.5
16.5
1.4
1.2
Hero Motocorp
Accumulate
1,609
1,819
32,127
25,274
27,658
14.1
13.7
110.2
139.9
14.6
11.5
5.3
4.2
39.8
40.7
1.1
0.9
JK Tyre
Buy
107
154
441
7,972
8,754
7.1
7.1
37.5
44.0
2.9
2.4
0.4
0.4
16.4
16.6
0.3
0.3
Auto & Auto Ancillary
Mahindra and Mahindra Buy
923
1,090
56,664
45,254
51,197
11.4
11.7
61.2
70.2
15.1
13.1
3.2
2.7
22.7
21.9
1.0
0.8
1,456
1,847
43,968
48,455
55,723
11.2
10.9
107.8
123.2
13.5
11.8
2.0
1.8
16.2
16.0
0.7
0.6
198
222
11,616
28,442
31,493
7.5
7.8
12.5
14.8
15.8
13.4
3.9
3.1
27.5
25.8
0.6
0.5
Buy
22
30
131
1,479
1,685
10.0
9.9
5.5
7.5
4.0
2.9
0.4
0.4
11.1
13.7
0.4
0.3
Tata Motors
Buy
283
347
76,242 215,016 237,404
13.3
13.6
36.2
41.5
7.8
6.8
1.7
1.4
24.6
23.2
0.4
0.4
TVS Motor
Buy
35
41
1,656
7,715
8,584
6.0
6.1
5.0
5.8
7.0
6.0
1.2
1.0
18.1
18.5
0.2
0.1
ABB*
Sell
592
461
12,553
8,073
9,052
5.5
6.9
11.5
16.9
51.4
35.0
4.7
4.5
9.3
13.1
1.5
1.3
BGR Energy
Neutral
133
963
4,114
4,886
11.4
10.7
24.9
28.0
5.4
4.8
0.7
0.7
25.2
22.6
0.5
0.5
BHEL
Neutral
175
42,833
44,054
39,326
16.8
15.1
20.6
16.1
8.5
10.9
1.9
1.7
23.5
16.1
0.9
0.9
Blue Star
Buy
160
230
1,434
2,896
3,087
5.6
6.2
9.3
11.7
17.1
13.6
2.8
2.4
17.6
19.2
0.6
0.5
Crompton Greaves
Buy
85
117
5,459
13,446
15,272
6.7
7.6
6.6
8.9
12.8
9.6
1.4
1.3
11.4
14.0
0.5
0.5
Jyoti Structures
Neutral
24
195
3,360
3,597
9.7
9.8
7.3
10.2
3.2
2.3
0.7
0.6
8.8
11.4
0.3
0.3
KEC International
Buy
37
63
938
7,709
8,399
6.7
7.2
6.1
8.5
6.0
4.3
0.8
0.7
20.2
23.0
0.3
0.3
Thermax
Neutral
595
7,087
5,780
6,430
9.5
9.6
29.8
33.0
20.0
18.0
3.4
2.9
17.9
17.4
1.0
0.9
1,205
1,361
22,615
11,979
13,254
19.7
21.3
77.1
91.4
15.6
13.2
2.8
2.5
18.7
20.0
1.6
1.4
Maruti
Buy
Motherson Sumi
Accumulate
Subros
Capital Goods
Cement
ACC
Accumulate
Market Outlook
June 18, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Cement
Ambuja Cements
Neutral
175
27,016
10,232
11,762
23.5
24.5
10.3
12.2
17.0
14.4
2.8
2.6
17.2
18.6
2.1
1.7
India Cements
Neutral
63
1,948
4,929
5,434
17.4
17.1
8.9
10.9
7.1
5.8
0.5
0.5
7.7
9.1
0.7
0.6
J K Lakshmi Cement
Buy
106
143
1,241
2,247
2,742
21.0
23.1
17.8
21.8
5.9
4.8
0.9
0.7
15.5
16.4
0.5
0.9
Madras Cements
Neutral
235
5,590
4,234
4,788
23.9
24.0
18.5
22.8
12.7
10.3
2.0
1.7
17.2
18.2
1.7
1.4
Shree Cement^
Neutral
4,615
16,076
6,540
7,452
27.4
26.6
319.7
369.9
14.4
12.5
3.6
2.9
27.5
25.4
1.8
1.4
UltraTech Cement
Neutral
1,822
49,964
21,947
25,049
23.8
23.8
106.1
119.8
17.2
15.2
2.8
2.5
17.7
17.3
2.4
2.0
189
255
996
1,928
2,234
21.0
21.5
18.0
22.2
10.5
8.5
0.9
0.8
10.2
10.1
1.9
1.9
10
185
2,281
2,492
5.9
6.9
0.7
2.0
14.7
5.0
0.3
0.3
2.3
6.5
0.4
0.3
Construction
Ashoka Buildcon
Buy
Consolidated Co
Neutral
IRB Infra
Buy
114
157
3,787
3,997
4,312
45.5
46.4
15.7
16.6
7.3
6.9
1.1
0.9
15.2
14.5
3.4
3.6
ITNL
Buy
175
230
3,407
7,444
8,041
27.4
28.9
29.8
32.1
5.9
5.5
0.8
0.7
14.9
14.2
2.6
2.6
IVRCL Infra
Buy
16
29
480
5,673
5,892
8.1
8.4
1.4
1.8
10.9
8.5
0.2
0.2
2.0
2.6
0.5
0.5
Jaiprakash Asso.
Buy
61
90
13,481
14,850
15,631
24.9
25.1
2.5
2.9
24.0
21.3
1.0
0.9
4.2
4.7
2.7
2.7
Larsen & Toubro
Buy
1,393
1,761
85,837
68,946
78,040
10.5
10.5
77.9
88.3
17.9
15.8
2.6
2.3
15.5
15.6
1.4
1.2
Nagarjuna Const.
Buy
29
42
731
6,167
6,945
8.0
8.2
2.7
3.6
10.7
7.8
0.3
0.3
2.7
3.6
0.5
0.5
Punj Lloyd
Neutral
41
1,352
12,954
14,740
9.9
9.9
0.5
0.9
80.2
43.7
0.5
0.5
0.6
1.1
0.5
0.5
Sadbhav Engg.
Buy
101
139
1,525
2,462
2,731
10.6
10.6
5.9
6.7
17.2
15.2
1.7
1.5
10.2
10.5
0.9
0.8
Simplex Infra
Buy
91
131
452
6,308
7,033
9.5
9.6
11.9
18.7
7.7
4.9
0.3
0.3
4.5
6.7
0.5
0.5
Unity Infra
Buy
27
41
198
2,146
2,339
13.7
13.8
11.0
11.5
2.4
2.3
0.2
0.2
9.3
9.0
0.6
0.6
Allahabad Bank
Buy
110
139
5,500
6,876
7,545
2.6
2.5
28.2
30.9
3.9
3.6
0.6
0.5
12.8
12.7
Andhra Bank
Neutral
85
4,745
5,254
5,900
2.8
2.8
21.2
22.9
4.0
3.7
0.6
0.5
13.3
13.0
Axis Bank
Buy
1,269
1,853
59,468
19,055
22,710
3.3
3.2
130.7
152.3
9.7
8.3
1.6
1.4
17.2
17.6
Bank of Baroda
Buy
625
851
26,310
16,365
18,781
2.2
2.3
121.3
142.5
5.2
4.4
0.8
0.7
15.1
15.7
Bank of India
Buy
281
339
16,721
14,482
16,383
2.3
2.3
58.1
68.1
4.8
4.1
0.7
0.6
14.4
15.0
Bank of Maharashtra
Buy
52
64
3,460
4,392
4,743
3.1
3.0
12.6
13.7
4.1
3.8
0.7
0.6
16.8
16.0
Canara Bank
Buy
381
481
16,874
11,928
13,467
2.1
2.2
74.8
86.0
5.1
4.4
0.7
0.6
13.7
14.2
Central Bank
Accumulate
63
69
6,576
8,249
9,211
2.4
2.5
14.9
18.2
4.2
3.5
0.6
0.5
12.5
13.8
Corporation Bank
Buy
372
476
5,695
5,558
6,121
2.0
2.0
98.4
107.7
3.8
3.5
0.6
0.5
14.9
14.5
Dena Bank
Buy
83
97
2,893
3,187
3,582
2.3
2.4
23.8
25.5
3.5
3.2
0.5
0.5
15.9
15.1
Federal Bank
Accumulate
422
459
7,216
2,873
3,413
3.0
3.1
52.7
62.0
8.0
6.8
1.0
0.9
13.4
14.2
Financials
Market Outlook
June 18, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Financials
HDFC
Accumulate
813
898
125,969
8,573
10,142
3.6
3.6
37.0
43.6
22.0
18.6
4.5
4.0
30.0
30.3
HDFC Bank
Accumulate
656
732
156,590
28,361
34,747
4.6
4.6
33.9
41.0
19.3
16.0
3.7
3.1
20.7
21.2
ICICI Bank
Buy
1,068
1,503
123,236
25,705
30,330
3.1
3.2
83.9
96.3
12.7
11.1
1.7
1.5
15.2
15.7
IDBI Bank
Buy
75
89
10,022
9,477
10,678
2.0
2.1
19.6
22.6
3.9
3.3
0.5
0.4
12.8
13.4
Indian Bank
Buy
128
164
5,520
6,185
6,978
3.0
3.0
37.0
42.2
3.5
3.0
0.5
0.5
14.8
15.1
IOB
Accumulate
57
62
5,290
8,142
8,956
2.5
2.5
16.5
20.7
3.5
2.8
0.4
0.4
11.8
13.4
J & K Bank
Accumulate
1,218
1,315
5,904
3,074
3,140
3.5
3.2
224.7
201.5
5.4
6.0
1.0
0.9
20.6
16.1
LIC Housing Finance
Buy
250
298
12,622
2,113
2,525
2.3
2.3
25.4
29.2
9.9
8.6
1.7
1.5
18.4
18.3
Oriental Bank
Accumulate
229
261
6,674
6,835
7,588
2.6
2.6
56.5
63.8
4.1
3.6
0.5
0.5
13.1
13.4
Punjab Natl.Bank
Buy
721
994
25,487
20,876
23,929
3.3
3.4
151.7
177.0
4.8
4.1
0.8
0.7
16.1
16.5
South Ind.Bank
Neutral
St Bk of India
Buy
Syndicate Bank
Accumulate
UCO Bank
Neutral
Union Bank
United Bank
24
3,277
1,839
2,091
2.9
2.8
4.2
4.5
5.8
5.4
1.0
0.9
18.2
17.0
2,020
2,637
138,161
67,243
76,612
3.1
3.0
242.4
284.8
8.3
7.1
1.3
1.1
16.3
16.8
127
142
7,630
7,238
8,249
2.7
2.6
27.1
30.4
4.7
4.2
0.7
0.6
16.1
15.9
76
5,720
6,250
6,738
2.6
2.5
12.1
14.7
6.3
5.2
1.0
0.8
11.8
13.0
Buy
208
260
12,398
11,229
12,794
2.6
2.6
40.7
48.2
5.1
4.3
0.7
0.6
14.6
15.4
Buy
50
65
1,859
3,443
3,998
2.4
2.6
15.1
20.4
3.3
2.4
0.4
0.4
12.1
14.8
Vijaya Bank
Neutral
50
2,478
2,730
3,059
1.9
2.0
10.2
11.3
4.9
4.4
0.6
0.5
11.8
12.0
Yes Bank
Accumulate
456
520
16,395
4,390
5,411
2.8
2.8
41.6
47.9
11.0
9.5
2.3
1.9
23.2
22.1
FMCG
Asian Paints
Neutral
4,442
42,606
12,332
14,524
16.5
16.3
141.6
162.7
31.4
27.3
9.9
7.9
35.4
32.2
3.3
2.8
Britannia
Neutral
674
8,066
6,417
7,502
6.1
6.3
23.2
27.9
29.1
24.2
10.0
7.9
38.3
36.4
1.2
1.0
Colgate
Neutral
1,310
17,821
3,588
4,130
20.5
20.9
44.2
51.8
29.7
25.3
28.9
21.1
108.6
96.2
4.8
4.1
Dabur India
Neutral
150
26,222
7,183
8,340
16.8
16.8
5.4
6.3
28.0
23.9
10.9
8.5
41.5
40.1
3.6
3.1
GlaxoSmith Con*
Neutral
5,683
23,898
3,617
4,259
16.1
16.4
122.2
148.7
46.5
38.2
14.5
11.6
34.1
33.7
6.1
5.1
Godrej Consumer
Neutral
775
26,380
7,801
9,017
16.2
15.9
25.1
29.7
30.8
26.1
6.7
5.5
24.9
24.2
3.5
3.0
HUL
Neutral
595
128,613
29,167
33,164
13.6
13.7
17.1
18.4
34.8
32.3
33.5
24.2
113.4
87.0
4.3
3.7
ITC
Neutral
327
258,232
34,294
39,991
36.8
37.0
11.3
13.3
29.0
24.5
9.6
7.7
36.1
34.9
7.2
6.1
Marico
Neutral
222
14,318
5,273
6,044
14.8
14.9
7.3
8.7
30.6
25.6
6.0
4.9
21.4
21.0
2.7
2.3
Nestle*
Neutral
5,111
49,275
9,447
10,968
22.1
22.3
127.5
154.1
40.1
33.2
20.0
14.5
57.7
50.7
5.2
4.4
Tata Global
Neutral
139
8,602
8,069
8,957
9.8
9.7
7.8
8.6
17.8
16.2
2.1
2.0
9.5
9.7
1.0
0.9
Market Outlook
June 18, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
755
863
52,613
28,633
32,216
21.5
20.7
57.3
61.7
13.2
12.2
3.1
2.6
24.0
21.5
1.7
1.4
79
96
2,358
2,091
2,289
19.0
18.8
10.6
11.3
7.4
7.0
1.7
1.5
22.8
21.7
1.0
0.8
IT
HCL Tech^
Accumulate
Hexaware*
Buy
Infosys
Neutral
2,379
136,617
43,338
47,244
27.5
27.7
169.4
182.6
14.1
13.0
2.9
2.5
20.8
19.3
2.5
2.2
Infotech Enterprises
Accumulate
170
185
1,897
1,956
2,174
17.9
17.7
20.4
21.9
8.3
7.8
1.2
1.1
14.7
13.7
0.6
0.5
KPIT Cummins
Buy
111
135
2,141
2,513
2,819
16.1
15.5
12.6
14.0
8.8
7.9
1.5
1.3
17.9
16.6
0.8
0.6
Mahindra Satyam
Accumulate
112
126
13,157
8,278
9,062
20.3
20.1
10.5
11.4
10.6
9.8
2.5
2.0
23.1
20.0
1.2
1.0
Mindtree
Accumulate
801
920
3,326
2,599
2,871
19.4
19.2
85.2
92.3
9.4
8.7
2.0
1.6
21.4
18.9
1.0
0.8
Mphasis&
Neutral
390
8,192
6,096
6,646
17.6
17.4
38.1
41.6
10.2
9.4
1.5
1.3
14.2
13.7
0.9
0.7
NIIT
Buy
21
30
347
1,144
1,267
9.0
9.1
4.3
5.4
4.9
3.9
0.5
0.5
10.3
12.0
0.1
Persistent
Buy
501
593
2,006
1,445
1,617
25.2
25.0
55.3
59.3
9.1
8.5
1.7
1.4
18.2
16.5
1.0
0.7
TCS
Accumulate
1,444
1,585
282,672
71,833
81,893
28.4
28.0
78.5
88.0
18.4
16.4
5.6
4.6
30.2
27.9
3.7
3.2
Tech Mahindra
Buy
968
1,170
12,434
7,779
8,398
19.7
19.3
107.4
117.8
9.0
8.2
1.9
1.6
21.2
19.0
1.6
1.4
Wipro
Accumulate
340
385
83,775
40,173
43,697
20.4
20.6
26.2
28.5
13.0
11.9
2.6
2.2
19.7
18.4
1.6
1.3
D B Corp
Buy
231
290
4,244
1,750
1,925
25.1
26.6
14.2
16.8
16.3
13.8
3.5
3.0
23.4
23.4
2.3
2.1
HT Media
Buy
100
117
2,351
2,205
2,380
15.1
15.6
8.3
9.1
12.1
11.0
1.3
1.2
11.5
11.4
0.7
0.6
Jagran Prakashan
Buy
91
119
3,024
1,664
1,825
20.9
23.0
6.4
7.8
14.2
11.7
2.9
2.6
21.0
23.1
1.9
1.7
PVR
Neutral
322
1,276
1,359
1,540
17.3
17.4
17.2
21.6
18.7
15.0
1.9
1.7
10.3
12.0
1.4
1.2
Sun TV Network
Neutral
356
14,024
2,287
2,551
69.7
70.5
20.0
23.3
17.8
15.3
4.4
3.9
26.4
27.3
5.8
5.1
Bhushan Steel
Neutral
462
10,470
13,794
17,088
30.9
33.5
49.3
66.6
9.4
6.9
1.0
0.9
11.3
13.5
2.4
1.9
Coal India
Buy
299
345
188,891
72,174
76,311
33.3
28.4
28.4
30.9
10.5
9.7
2.9
2.5
37.6
36.2
1.8
1.6
Electrosteel Castings
Buy
14
24
441
1,976
2,017
11.8
12.7
1.3
2.6
10.7
5.2
0.1
0.1
2.6
5.2
0.5
0.1
GMDC
Buy
122
193
3,883
1,920
2,239
53.2
52.9
21.6
25.0
5.7
4.9
1.3
1.1
25.1
23.8
1.5
1.1
Hind. Zinc
Buy
108
145
45,528
12,358
13,659
51.4
51.6
16.0
17.6
6.7
6.1
1.2
1.1
19.4
18.4
1.4
0.9
Hindalco
Neutral
97
18,543
89,352
93,672
8.8
9.2
13.4
15.0
7.2
6.5
0.5
0.5
7.3
7.6
0.6
0.5
JSW Steel
Neutral
671
14,975
39,973
40,926
17.2
17.0
71.9
82.8
9.3
8.1
0.8
0.7
9.0
9.6
0.7
0.6
MOIL
Buy
204
248
3,430
1,010
1,046
46.5
47.6
26.8
28.8
7.6
7.1
1.1
1.0
15.4
14.7
1.0
0.7
Monnet Ispat
Buy
122
193
780
2,326
2,709
21.4
23.1
33.3
43.1
3.7
2.8
0.3
0.3
8.3
9.9
1.4
1.0
Nalco
Neutral
30
7,629
7,656
7,988
13.1
13.5
2.6
2.6
11.6
11.3
0.6
0.6
5.5
5.5
0.4
0.5
NMDC
Buy
107
156
42,601
10,461
11,892
71.6
72.6
16.3
17.6
6.6
6.1
1.4
1.2
22.1
21.4
2.3
2.0
Media
Metals & Mining
Market Outlook
June 18, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
EV/Sales(x)
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Metals & Mining

SAIL
Neutral
Sesa Goa
Buy
53
22,075
44,060
54,786
9.4
11.5
5.2
7.2
10.2
7.5
0.5
0.5
5.2
6.8
0.8
0.6
140
166
12,172
3,742
4,426
32.9
32.8
30.0
29.8
4.7
4.7
0.6
0.6
14.3
12.5
4.0
3.3
Sterlite Inds
Tata Steel
Buy
82
100
27,389
44,462
45,568
23.2
24.7
18.1
20.2
4.5
4.0
0.5
0.4
11.3
11.4
0.6
0.5
Buy
266
378
25,849 140,917 151,537
9.7
10.8
30.9
47.6
8.6
5.6
0.8
0.7
9.6
13.4
0.6
0.5
Sarda
Buy
101
153
363
1,494
1,568
19.1
20.3
31.3
36.5
3.2
2.8
0.4
0.3
11.8
12.4
0.6
0.5
Prakash Industries
Godawari Power and
Ispat
Oil & Gas
Buy
30
45
405
2,615
2,776
12.1
12.0
9.8
10.4
3.1
2.9
0.2
0.2
6.5
6.5
0.4
0.4
Buy
76
102
249
2,344
2,509
14.9
15.4
38.7
47.0
2.0
1.6
0.2
0.2
12.3
12.9
0.5
0.4
Cairn India
Buy
290
345
55,398
16,482
16,228
69.4
53.3
53.3
49.6
5.4
5.9
0.8
0.8
16.5
13.6
2.0
1.7
GAIL
Neutral
297
37,661
52,102
52,876
15.7
16.1
34.1
35.7
8.7
8.3
1.4
1.2
16.4
15.3
0.3
0.2
ONGC
Buy
309
372
264,493 170,063 193,024
36.3
36.9
34.7
38.3
8.9
8.1
1.5
1.4
18.3
17.9
1.3
1.0
Reliance Industries
Neutral
789
254,851 380,031 407,721
9.9
69.3
69.3
78.0
11.4
10.1
1.1
1.0
11.5
11.7
0.6
0.6
Gujarat Gas*
Neutral
208
2,670
3,707
3,850
11.7
12.4
23.7
25.7
8.8
8.1
2.5
2.1
29.6
28.2
0.6
0.5
Indraprastha Gas
Neutral
279
3,905
3,700
4,218
23.4
22.8
26.7
30.4
10.5
9.2
2.2
1.8
22.7
21.8
1.1
0.9
Petronet LNG
Gujarat State Petronet
Ltd.
Pharmaceuticals
Buy
132
167
9,870
40,356
40,872
5.8
6.4
15.0
16.7
8.8
7.9
1.8
1.6
23.0
21.5
0.3
0.3
53
3,005
1,171
1,287
91.9
91.9
10.1
11.3
5.3
4.7
0.9
0.7
17.3
16.8
Alembic Pharma
Accumulate
129
139
2,427
1,736
2,008
17.1
18.9
10.7
13.9
12.0
9.3
3.8
2.8
35.0
34.7
1.5
1.2
Aurobindo Pharma
Buy
166
271
4,828
6,641
7,637
15.9
15.9
17.3
20.6
9.6
8.1
1.5
1.3
19.5
18.9
1.2
1.0
Aventis*
Neutral
2,470
5,688
1,682
1,917
16.6
16.6
92.4
99.1
26.7
24.9
3.8
3.8
15.7
14.8
3.0
2.5
Cadila Healthcare
Buy
741
929
15,168
7,280
8,640
15.5
15.7
38.3
46.5
19.3
15.9
4.2
3.4
23.5
23.5
2.4
2.0
Cipla
Buy
379
477
30,419
9,274
10,796
23.1
23.1
21.0
23.8
18.0
15.9
2.9
2.5
17.2
16.8
3.0
2.5
Dr Reddy's
Buy
2,157
2,535
36,647
13,377
15,350
20.4
20.1
112.3
126.8
19.2
17.0
4.1
3.4
23.5
21.8
2.8
2.4
Dishman Pharma
Buy
GSK Pharma*
Neutral
Indoco Remedies
Buy
Ipca labs
Neutral
60
168
480
1,394
1,534
22.5
22.4
15.0
16.8
4.0
3.5
0.4
0.4
11.0
11.2
1.0
0.8
2,469
20,912
2,854
3,145
28.6
28.6
76.6
83.3
32.2
29.6
9.7
8.8
31.1
31.0
6.5
5.8
64
78
594
760
922
15.3
15.3
6.1
7.8
10.6
8.3
1.3
1.1
12.9
14.7
1.0
0.8
Neutral
641
8,084
3,243
3,826
20.5
21.5
36.0
44.4
17.8
14.4
4.2
3.3
26.0
25.4
2.6
2.2
Lupin
Buy
760
877
34,026
11,641
13,933
21.3
21.3
34.8
41.8
21.8
18.2
5.1
4.0
26.2
24.8
3.0
2.4
Ranbaxy*
Neutral
374
15,818
11,400
12,060
10.5
12.5
17.5
22.5
21.4
16.6
3.4
3.0
17.0
19.1
1.3
1.2
Sun Pharma
Neutral
949
98,171
13,509
15,846
41.0
41.0
33.0
39.8
28.8
23.9
5.8
4.8
22.0
22.0
6.7
5.5
70
78
1,059
1,444
1,482
33.4
33.0
13.7
14.8
5.1
4.7
0.6
0.5
12.3
12.0
0.8
0.6
Power
GIPCL
Accumulate
Market Outlook
June 18, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
Accumulate
150
163
123,476
76,734
86,680
24.5
24.3
13.4
14.5
11.2
10.3
1.4
1.3
12.8
12.7
2.3
2.2
DLF
Buy
187
236
33,192
8,293
9,622
36.5
36.1
5.7
6.7
32.7
27.7
1.2
1.1
3.7
4.1
6.1
5.1
MLIFE
Buy
398
476
1,623
888
1,002
30.6
30.6
38.8
43.4
10.2
9.2
1.1
1.0
11.2
11.4
2.4
2.1
Bharti Airtel
Buy
288
338
109,217
86,592
95,860
31.4
31.8
10.9
14.5
26.4
19.8
2.0
1.9
7.7
9.3
1.9
1.6
Idea Cellular
Neutral
135
44,789
25,122
27,663
27.0
27.2
4.0
4.8
34.0
28.4
2.8
2.6
8.3
9.1
2.2
1.9
Rcom
Neutral
106
21,775
22,801
24,628
31.0
31.3
3.6
5.3
29.6
20.0
0.6
0.6
2.2
3.1
2.5
2.2
1,445
1,659
3,070
1,863
2,081
11.8
12.4
71.2
83.0
20.3
17.4
4.1
3.5
21.6
21.5
1.4
1.1
Power
NTPC
Real Estate
Telecom
Others
Abbott India*
Accumulate
Bajaj Electricals
Buy
166
237
1,658
3,885
4,472
5.4
7.2
11.0
19.7
15.2
8.4
2.1
1.7
13.5
20.3
0.4
0.4
Cera Sanitaryware
Accumulate
522
562
660
630
795
14.4
13.6
42.8
51.1
12.2
10.2
2.9
2.3
26.6
25.2
1.0
0.8
Cravatex
Buy
314
459
81
248
284
6.5
7.3
27.2
38.2
11.6
8.2
1.8
1.5
15.7
18.5
0.5
0.4
Finolex Cables
Buy
50
68
757
2,563
2,899
9.8
9.8
10.1
11.3
4.9
4.4
0.7
0.6
14.3
13.8
0.2
0.2
Force Motors
Buy
290
437
377
2,304
2,649
3.1
3.6
28.0
43.7
10.4
6.6
0.3
0.3
3.1
4.7
0.1
0.1
Goodyear India*
Accumulate
301
345
693
1,458
1,542
8.3
9.0
32.3
37.0
9.3
8.1
1.7
1.5
19.5
19.3
0.3
0.2
Hitachi
Buy
130
177
353
1,053
1,169
6.3
7.1
13.8
17.7
9.4
7.3
1.3
1.1
15.0
16.7
0.4
0.3
2,449
2,165
1,842
2,131
7.7
7.8
112.4
132.4
21.8
18.5
2.7
2.4
13.3
13.8
1.1
0.9
Honeywell Automation* Neutral

IFB Agro
Buy
159
198
143
495
651
12.7
12.9
29.3
39.5
5.4
4.0
0.8
0.7
15.4
17.6
0.4
0.3
ITD Cementation
Buy
164
234
189
1,430
1,573
11.1
11.0
19.1
26.9
8.6
6.1
0.5
0.4
4.9
6.3
0.5
0.5
Jyothy Laboratories
Neutral
191
3,075
1,220
1,476
13.3
13.6
5.5
9.0
34.6
21.1
4.0
3.5
12.1
17.7
2.9
2.3
MRF
Neutral
14,357
6,089
11,799
12,587
14.1
13.5 1,792.4 1,802.0
8.0
8.0
1.7
1.4
23.5
19.2
0.6
0.6
Page Industries
Buy
3,988
4,611
4,448
1,057
1,282
19.4
19.6
124.8
153.7
32.0
25.9
15.8
11.7
56.3
51.8
4.3
3.5
Relaxo Footwears
Buy
664
791
797
1,146
1,333
10.9
11.4
45.9
60.9
14.5
10.9
3.0
2.4
23.0
24.6
0.9
0.7
Siyaram Silk Mills
Buy
247
343
232
1,158
1,322
11.9
11.9
72.9
85.7
3.4
2.9
0.6
0.5
19.9
19.6
0.4
0.4
Styrolution ABS India*
Buy
415
617
730
1,068
1,223
9.6
9.6
38.1
44.1
10.9
9.4
1.5
1.3
14.5
14.7
0.7
0.6
TAJ GVK
Buy
60
108
378
300
319
35.8
36.2
7.9
9.1
7.6
6.6
1.0
0.9
13.9
14.4
1.6
1.3
Tata Sponge Iron
Buy
277
371
426
814
849
17.0
17.6
64.6
69.2
4.3
4.0
0.6
0.5
14.5
13.8
0.1
(0.1)
TTK Healthcare
Buy
533
686
414
435
516
6.2
7.1
24.3
33.3
21.9
16.0
3.6
3.1
17.6
20.8
0.8
0.6
Tree House
Accumulate
274
297
986
153
194
53.0
52.8
12.4
15.6
22.1
17.5
2.6
2.3
11.8
13.1
6.6
5.1
TVS Srichakra
Buy
183
252
140
1,591
1,739
6.1
6.6
24.5
41.9
7.5
4.4
0.8
0.7
10.9
17.2
0.3
0.3
United Spirits
Neutral
2,332
33,896
12,294
14,162
12.0
12.0
42.1
67.7
55.4
34.5
3.9
3.5
9.1
10.7
3.1
2.7
Market Outlook
June 18, 2013
Stock Watch
Company Name
Reco
CMP
Target
Mkt Cap
Sales ( cr )
OPM(%)
EPS ( )
PER(x)
P/BV(x)
RoE(%)
EV/Sales(x)
( )
Price ( )
( cr )
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
FY14E
FY15E
365
439
741
600
638
20.1
19.4
35.7
36.6
10.2
10.0
1.8
1.6
19.4
17.1
1.0
0.9
Others
Vesuvius India*
Buy
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note: *December year end; #September year end; &October year end; Price as on June 17, 2013
Market Outlook
June 18, 2013

Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook: Dealer's Diary

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Market Outlook

June 18, 2013

RBI maintains status quo on rates; along expected lines

FII Derivatives (June 17, 2013)

Gujarat State Pet

OIL & GAS

Net Inflows (June 14, 2013)

Refer detailed news analysis on the following page

RBI maintains status quo on rates; along expected lines

Policy cautious ahead of inflationary and BoP risks

Policy stance to be determined by growth, inflation and BoP

Trade deficit widens to USD 20.1bn in May 2013

Trade deficit for May 2013

TRAI lowers roaming charges for calls, SMSs

Telecom Policy-2012 to move towards One Nation-Free Roaming throughout the

MM forms a global alliance with Spain's CIE Automotive

Exhibit 1: Stake sale by MM

Source: Company, Angel Research

The share sale by MM has triggered open-offers in MFL and Mahindra

Exhibit 2: No of shares of MFL to be issued for every 100 share

Mahindra Investments (India)

Mahindra Gears India

Mahindra Ugine Steel

Source: Company, Angel Research

Outlook and valuation: We see this development as a major boost to MM's

JSW Steel reports crude steel production numbers for May

Economic and Political News

RBI policy stance not totally unexpected: FICCI

L&T bids for Rs 4K-cr defence contract; bullish on foreign mkts

Country Event Description

June 18, 2013

Consumer price index (mom)

June 19, 2013

FOMC rate decision

June 20, 2013

Germany PMI Manufacturing

Germany PMI Services

Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence

Existing home sales

New home sales

June 26, 2013

GDP Qoq (Annualised)

June 27, 2013

Germany Unemployment change (000's)

BOE Announces rates

Euro Zone ECB announces interest rates

Change in Nonfarm payrolls

June 25, 2013

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

July 10, 2013

July 15, 2013

Industrial Production (YoY)

Real GDP (YoY)

Germany GDP nsa (YoY)

Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ)

August 14, 2013

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly WPI inflation trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion