Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | June 18, 2013

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX : Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, compl eteness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedbac k is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | June 18, 2013

International Commodities
News and Analysis Performance during the day US Federal Reserve meeting to commence from today evening. UKs Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.7 percent in May. German ZEW Economic Sentiment increased to 38.5-mark in June. European equities are trading on a flat note today ahead of the US Federal Reserve meeting starting from today. Asian markets ended on a negative note and US stock futures are trading in the green. UKs Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 2.7 percent in May as against a rise of 2.4 percent in April. Producer Price Index (PPI) Input declined by 0.3 percent in last month from earlier fall of 2.3 percent in April. German ZEW Economic Sentiment increased by 2.1 points to 38.5mark in June as against a rise of 36.4-level in May. European ZEW Economic Sentiment gained by 3 points to 30.6-level in current month from 27.6-mark in last month. Spot gold prices declined around 0.5 percent today on the back of upbeat global markets which led to fall in safe haven appeal for the commodity. Further, strength in the US Dollar Index (DX) added downside pressure on prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in prices on the MCX. Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with downside in base metals group, Spot silver prices fell around 0.4 percent today. Additionally, a stronger DX acted as a negative factor for the prices. On the domestic front, prices gained around 0.9 percent on account of depreciation in the Indian Rupee. The base metals group traded on a negative note in todays trade on account of strength in the DX. Further, mixed LME inventories scenario added downside pressure on the prices. However, sharp downside in prices was cushioned on the back of favorable economic sentiments data from the Euro Zone. Depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in prices on the MCX. Nymex crude oil prices declined by 0.2 percent today taking cues from stronger DX. However, sharp downside in prices was prevented as a result of expectations of decline in API crude oil inventories. Further, optimistic economic sentiments data from Euro Zone acted as a positive factor. On the domestic bourses, depreciation in the Rupee supported an upside in prices on the MCX. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to decline by 0.6 million barrels for the week ending on 14th June 2013.
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE Open High

as at 4.30 pm 18 June 13
Low Last % Chg from Prev day

5841.90 19329.17 13015.15 1887.72 16141.35

5863.40 19383.61 13139.48 1900.63 16320.83

5804.30 19191.37 12919.03 1872.70 16107.35

5813.60 19223.28 13007.28 1900.62 16107.35

-0.62 -0.53 -0.20 0.93 0.51

Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 18 June 13
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open High Low Current % Chg from Prev day

80.81 1.3367 58.00

81.04 1.3398 58.765

80.735 1.3324 58.00

80.905 1.3382 58.735 as at 4.30 pm 18 June 13

0.21 0.11 1.09

Source: Reuters

Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Aug13 MCX Gold Aug13 Spot Silver Comex Silver July13 MCX Silver July13 Crude Oil Nymex July 13 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil June 13 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper June13 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - June13 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX June13 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX June13 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX June13

Unit

Open

High

Low

Last

% Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl

1384.29 1383.10 27941.00 21.83 28.23 43700 97.93 105.66 5695 7105.25 410.80 1861.25 106.80 2116 122.30 14289 824.40 1852.50 105.70

1385.55 1383.50 28087.0 21.94 0.21915 44050 98.03 105.79 5732 7134.00 412.70 1870.00 107.50 2116 122.80 14289 829.30 1854.00 106.20

1375.99 1376.00 27934.0 21.71 0.2187 43700 97.41 105.11 5695 7021.00 409.90 1851.50 106.80 2088 122.10 14060 821.10 1835.00 105.50

1376.80 1377.50 28077.00 21.75 0.21757 43996 97.54 105.29 5729 7034.50 411.60 1852.00 107.30 2091 122.55 14097 826.60 1836.25 105.95

-0.55 -0.38 0.75 -0.41 -0.89 0.92 -0.24 -0.17 0.90 -0.74 0.53 -0.63 0.80 -0.87 0.45 -0.80 0.34 -0.76 0.52

$/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne

Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

Source: Reuters

Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | June 18, 2013

International Commodities
Outlook In the evening session, we expect precious metals to trade lower on the back of upbeat global markets coupled with strength in the DX. Further, major movement in the markets will be seen on account of any major announcement by the Federal Reserve in its meeting starting from today. Base metals and crude oil prices expected to trade higher as a result of expectations of favorable economic data from US. Crude oil prices will further take cues from forecast for decline in API oil inventories.

Technical Outook for evening session 18 June 13 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold Aug'13 Spot Gold Silver July13 Spot Silver Brent Crude June13 Crude Oil June13 Nymex Crude Oil July13 Natural Gas June13 LME Copper Copper June13 Zinc June13 Lead June13 Aluminum June13 Nickel June13 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz $/bbl Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 27840 1370 43500 21.42 6120 5640 96.65 224 6975 407 105.5 120.4 104.4 813 Support 1 27950 1375 43700 21.6 6164 5680 97.25 226 7020 409 106.4 121.6 105.1 819.3 CMP 28060 1377.6 43988 21.78 6248 5728 97.52 228.7 7037 411.95 107.3 122.55 105.9 826.3 Resistance1 28180 1386 44200 21.93 6250 5760 98.05 231 7140 415 107.6 123.3 106.5 831.2 Resistance 2 28290 1392 44500 22.1 6280 5790 98.65 234 7190 417.5 108.1 124.2 107.3 839

Important Events for Today

Indicator ECB President Draghi Speaks CPI y/y PPI Input m/m RPI y/y German ZEW Economic Sentiment ZEW Economic Sentiment Inflation Report Hearings BOE Inflation Letter Building Permits Core CPI m/m CPI m/m Housing Starts G8 Meetings Country Euro UK UK UK Euro Euro UK UK US US US US All Time (IST) 11:30am 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:00pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 2:30pm Tentative 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm Day 2 Actual 2.7% -0.3% 3.1% 38.5 30.6 Forecast 2.6% 0.1% 3.1% 38.2 29.4 0.98M 0.2% 0.1% 0.95M Previous 2.4% -2.3% 2.9% 36.4 27.6 1.01M 0.1% -0.4% 0.85M Impact High High Medium Medium High Medium High High High High Medium Medium High