Seismic Zonation Map of Bangladesh Mehedi Ahmed Ansary

Member Steering Committee Bangladesh National Building Code

& Bangladesh Earthquake Society (BES) Department of Civil Engineering BUET

Active Faults Surrounding Bangladesh (Bolt, 1985)

DHUBRI FAULT SYSTEM

DAUKI FAULT SYSTEM

TRIPURA FAULT BOGRA FAULT SYSTEM SYSTEM Dhaka SYLHET FAULT CHITTAGONG SYSTEM FAULT SYSTEM

1979

1993

EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ANALYSIS

Earthquake Catalogue
An earthquake catalogue forms a valuable input for seismic hazard assessment and microzonation studies. Critical structures such as nuclear power plants and dams, as well as siting of any new industry, require earthquake data that are accurate, homogeneous and as complete as possible. In this study an attempt is made to assess the seismicity of Bangladesh and adjoining region (20-280 north latitude and 86-950 east longitude) during the period 1865-1995 by reviewing instrumental data as well as macroseismic information retrieved from various sources.

1865-2003

Existing Earthquake Catalogue

Revision of Magnitudes
The idea of revising and unifying existing magnitudes is carried out. The main goal is to produce a file of reliable data that reflect, as homogeneously and completely as possible, the seismicity of the region. Calculation of surface wave magnitude: Ms= log(A/T)+1.66 log+3.3 Use of correlations: Surface-wave magnitudes are estimated where possible from semi-empirical relationships between Ms and Mb. Ms = a + b*Mb. Ms = 0.63+0.774*Mb - period 1978-1995 Ms = 1.27+0.68*Mb - period 1964-1977

Surface-wave magnitudes are also assessed by using the number of stations (NS) that reported it to the ISS or ISC. Ms = a + b* Log (NS) a =4.21, b=1.12 - period 1900-1963 a =3.21, b=0.72 - period 1964-1977 a =2.77, b=0.81 - period 1978-1995 Surface-wave magnitudes are also estimated where possible from semi-empirical relationships between Ms and Duration Magnitude Md. Ms = 0.57+1.057*Md - period 1993-1995
6.5 M s Vs M b (1978-1995)
s

6.5
M s Vs M b (1964-1977)
s

6.0

6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5 4.0

s 3.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 Mb 5.5 6.0 6.5

M s (Calculated)

5.5 M s(ISC)

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0
Mb

5.5

6.0

6.5

New Earthquake Catalogue

YR 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1964 1965 1965 1965 1965 1965 1965 1965 1965 1965 1965 1965 1965 1965 1965 1965 1965 1965 MNH 1 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 12 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 6 6 7 8 9 11 11 12 12 DY 22 1 18 18 27 20 27 13 15 3 9 13 12 13 17 30 30 1 4 6 13 21 25 1 12 12 18 22 18 25 27 11 1 18 5 4 30 6 6 5 9 H 15 11 3 4 15 19 23 3 16 MIN 58 28 48 26 10 0 3 20 35 S 47 19 36 34 48 53 42 5 58 22 58 48 54 8 32 37 38 0 56 7 24 24 20 38 35 34 7 51 7 45 38 39 1 27 59 28 4 LON 9360 8778 9110 9430 9440 9440 8930 9020 8800 9500 8790 9400 9450 9470 9418 8830 8852 9230 9440 9450 9120 9370 8860 9446 8800 8770 9380 9450 9430 9464 8990 9233 9490 9380 9480 8830 9400 9170 9160 9450 9250 LAT 2240 2730 2750 2500 2170 2360 2720 2760 2170 2600 2150 2300 2700 2370 2432 2760 2790 2720 2600 2790 2400 2800 2790 2118 2760 2730 2500 2010 2500 2363 2730 2682 2020 2500 2120 2350 2500 2710 2720 2330 2750 DEP 88 33 30* 102 86 29 52* 36* 0 61 117 158 21 33 33 413 37 0 104 23 33* 76 36 94 33 70 57 46 65* 40 33 13 22 Ms 544 442 449 545 465 456 473 468 390 449 492 438 456 377 472 372 422 399 434 390 529 454 454 479 471 360 465 477 464 427 343 356 404 467 478 Mb Md ( ) 610 ( ) 480 ( ) 530 ( ) 640 ( ) 500 ( ) 500 ( ) 520 ( ) 520 [1] ( ) 520 ( ) 540 ( ) 480 ( ) 510 [1] ( ) 550 [1] ( ) 450* [1] () [1] ( ) 580 ( ) 520 [2] 480 ( ) 540 ( ) 520 [1] ( ) 490 ( ) 520 ( ) 520 [2] 440 [2] [2] ( ) 430 ( ) 500 ( ) 520 M 600 560 540 650 560 600 560 Ml Mw ITSC 7 NS 153 20 67 212 52 46 53 80 RMK LOCATION REFERENCES MR-ID ROT,ISC,MOS,SHL,USCGS,IS NP ISC,USCGS,ISETR BU ROT,ISC,MOS,USCGS,TS,ISE TS Mandalay.MR ROT,ISC,MOS,SHL,USCGS,IS MR-ID ROT,ISC,MOS,SHL,USCGS,IS BU ROT,ISC,MOS,USCGS,GS,IS BU ROT,ISC,MOS,USCGS,ISETR Calcutta.ID ROT,ISC,QUE,MOS,USCGS,S MR-ID ISETR ID ISC,SHL MR-ID ROT,ISC,MOS,USCGS,SHL,IS Sagaing.MR ISETR MR-ID ROT,ISC,USCGS,MOS,SHL,G MR-ID ISC,USCGS,ISETR Sikkim.BU ROT,ISC,SHL,MOS,USCGS,T Sikkim .BU ISC,ISETR ID-CH ROT,ISC,SHL,USCGS,MOS,T MR-ID NDI,ISETR E.ID ISC,USCGS,ISETR ID-BD ISC,NDI,ISETR ID-CH ISETR Sikkim ISC,NDI,ISETR MR ISC,ISETR NP ROT,ISC,PEK,QUE,USCGS,S NP ROT,ISC,PEK,USCGS,ISETR PAPER MR-CH ROT,ISC,ISETR ID-CH ROT,ISC,ISETR MR-ID ISC,PEK,USCGS,MOS,SHL BU ISC E.ID ISC,USCGS,TS,ISETR MR;MR-CH ROT,ISC,GS MR-ID;ID-CH (Arakan YoROT,ISC,GS,TS,ISETR MR ISC,USCGS,NDI,ISETR ID-BD NDI MR-ID NDI BU USCGS BU ISETR MR-ID ROT,ISC,USCGS,ISETR ID-CH ROT,ISC,PEK,USCGS,TS,ISE

12 33 17 35 10 14 2 5 13 20 2 10 15 15 13 13 8 2 4 10 20 22 4 8 23 15 8 16 58 42 35 12 22 55 55 36 40 10 32 55 17 41 26 34 45 33 32 17 41 27 48 4

600 600 560 600 590 650 560 590 560 600 510 600 600 480 560 560 630 680 -

9 108 138 24 78 6 148 5 11 12 9 9 151 52 37 122 98 7 50 124 105 29 2 3 9 82 86 A -

22 1 20 26

Earthquakes in and around Bangladesh (1664-2006)

31 N

Ms>7: 17 events Ms>6: 69 events

Ms>4: 1647 events Ms>3.5: 3055 events Ms>3: 4138 events

100

200

kilometers

84 E

18 N 98 E

Results from Analysis of Completeness for the New Earthquake Catalogue

Magnitude Class 3M<4 4M<5 5M<6 6M<7 7M Period of Complete Reporting (year) 1964-2006 1964-2006 1923-2006 1927-2006 1865-2006

Location of site

Data period (based on completeness) Minimum Magnitude Radius of Area Earthquake catalogue Selection of suitable radius Selection of earthquakes Map of epicenters

Magnitude frequency relationship

Estimation of a and b parameters

Selection of ground motion property to be analyzed (PGA) Selection of suitable attenuation law PGA frequency relationship

Expected magnitude for different return period

Estimation of a and b parameter

Schematic flow of earthquake hazard analysis

Expected PGA for different return periods

Expected return period for a fixed PGA value

Seismicity model: Available earthquake data Recurrence relationship log () = a + blog(y) log(y) =(-log(T)- a)/b

[T=1/]

Attenuation models: describes the transfer of ground motions from the source to a particular site in the form

log(PGA) = b1 + b2 (Ms) - b3 log (r) - b4 (r)

Selected Attenuation Law

Assessment of seismic hazard at any particular site requires an attenuation law for the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)

For Bangladesh no PGA is available due to the lack of seismic devices Attenuation law for alluvial soils: McGuire (1978) - PGA=0.0306e0.89Mr-1.17e-0.2 (in g) Duggal (1989) - PGA=227.3x100.308M(d+30)-1.201 (in cm/s2)

SELECTION OF EARTHQUAKES AROUND A SITE

0.0 Sylhet Chittagong Dhaka
Mean Annual Occurrence Rate () 10

-0.2

b coefficient

-0.4

-0.6

0.1

-0.8

0.01

a=1.92 b=-1.72
1 10 PGA (cm/s )
2

-1.0 50 100 150 200 250 Radius (km) 300 350 400 450

1E-3 100 1000

Radius Sensitivity of b-coefficient

PGA PGA versus for Sylhet

28
BHUTAN NEPAL

26

INDIA

Sylhet

Study region showing the grid points

LATITUDE

24

INDIA

Dhaka

BANGLADESH
Chittagong

22

BAY OF BENGAL

BURMA

20 86

88

90

92

94

LONGITUDE

Seismic hazard of Bangladesh based on Duggals (1989) attenuation law

T = 200 years
(Unit: cm/s/s) 450 375 300 225 150 75

T = 475 years
(Unit: cm/s/s) 900 750 600 450 300 150

22% poe, t-50 yr

10% poe, t-50 yr

After Noor, Yasin & Ansary (2005)

Grid interval of 0.3 degree are used Uniform probability distributions are assigned to each source zone implying that, earthquakes are . equally likely to occur at any point within the source zone Seven area sources are assumed The sources are so divided that area of each division is limited to 1200 sq km

After Noor, Yasin & Ansary (2005)

22% poe, t-50 yr

10% poe, t-50 yr

Seismic hazard of Bangladesh based on Duggals (1989) attenuation law

Seismic Zoning Map of Bangladesh

Seismic Zones
Zone 3 = 0.25g Zone 2 = 0.15g Zone 1 = 0.075g

BNBC (1993)

Proposed

Development of Attenuation Law

Magnitude-Intensity & Intensity Attenuation Data Preparation: The average radius of each isoseismal was determined from the radii measured in 16 directions at 22.50 intervals of the compass Isoseismals with no reliable data were disregarded from the regression analysis The description of the 18 earthquakes used in this study is presented in the following table

Area under study and locations of 28 events

30 29 28
NEPAL
25 11

27
9 15

BHUTAN
20 26 27 8 4 19 13 16 7 14 2

INDIA
21 12

26

LATITUDE

25 24 23 22
INDIA
5

24

BANGLADESH
22

10 23

MYANMAR
17 18 6

21 20 19 18 85

BAY OF BENGAL
28

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

LONGITUDE

Magnitude-Intensity
Magnitude Intensity Model: Msc = A1 + A2(Ii) + A3(Ri) + A4logRi + P Bangladesh and its surrounding region, which consists of 25 events and 93 pairs (Ii, Di), is
M sc = - 3.336 + 0.549j
2000 1000

-1

(I ) + 0.000505j (R ) + 2.964j (logR ) 0.61P

-1 -1 i i i i i i
Surface-wave Magnitude (Ms)
III IV V VI VII VIII IX

9.0 8.5 8.0 7.5 7.0 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 4.5
Ms=-0.542+1.075(Msc)

Hypocentral Distance (km)

100

10

1 4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

Predicted Magnitude (M sc)

4.0 4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

Predicted Magnitude (Msc)

Intensity Attenuation
Intensity-Attenuation Model: I = B1 + B2(Ms) + B3(R) + B4logR + P The regression analysis for the whole data set, which consists of 93 (Ii, Di) pairs corresponding to 25 events, gives the following mean attenuation expression:

I = 6.702 + 1.254(M s ) - 0.0014(R) - 3.966(logR) 0.92P

12
Attenuation Law Isoseismal Values

12
Alldata NE

10
)

10

0.0007483(

R)

Intensity

Intensity

6
M=8

M=6 M=5

M=7

4 0 150 300 450 600

2 0 200 400 600 800

Hypocentral Distance (km)

Hypocentral Distance (km)

STRONG MOTION INSTRUMENTATION

Why is Seismic Instrumentation Important ?

It helps us to: Estimate the probable ground motion. Locate earthquakes (epicentre, magnitude, depth) Tell how the structure behaves. Confirm how to strengthen the structure. Improve our design procedures and codes leading to reduced costs but increased safety for future structures.

Jamuna Bridge Seismic Instrumentation Project

BUET is the Consultant to JMBA, Ministry of Communication, GOB Total Project Cost: Tk 4 crore Instrumentation has recently been installed (May-July 2003) BUET will monitor and analyze seismic data for the next 5 years

28

Existing Seismic Stations In and Arround 26 Bangladesh.

JMBA 24 DU-Colombia
LATITUDE

NEPAL

BHUTAN

INDIA

INDIA

BANGLADESH

Seismic Stations 22 to be deployed

BMD
ISC-1995 RRLJ-1998 BURMA BAY OF BENGAL

20 86

88

90

92

94

LONGITUDE

Accelerometer Sensors on Bridge Deck

Triaxial Accelerometer
(Acceleration in 3 dirs.)

Uniaxial Accelerometer
(Horizontal Transverse Acceleration)

Seismic Data Transmission Spread Spectrum / GPS

Transmitting from the Bridge Receiving East End, Bhuapur Data Control Centre

Data Control Centre

Communication Box / Computer Continuous Data Streaming

Continuous digital data is transmitted to the Data Acquisition Computer Events exceeding threshold acceleration will be recorded on the computer

Free Field Stations (JMBA-BUET Project)

East Side: Bridge End, Mymensingh, Gazipur West Side: Bridge End, Bogra, Natore
Triaxial Accelerometer Internal Recorder (PCMCIA Card) Solar Panel Charging

Installation Team

East Free-field (16.06.04)

Acceleration (cm/s )

Strong Motion Recording During June 16, 2004 Earthquake

West Free-field (16.06.04)
40 20 0

20 10 0 -10 -20 20 10 0 -10 -20 20 10 0 -10 -20 0 10 20 30 40 0 10 20 30 40 0 10 20 30 40

2

NS

EW

UD

NS
10 5

Time (s) Mymensingh Free-field (16.06.04)

Acceleration (cm/s )

-20 -40 40 20 0 -20 -40 0 40 20 0 -20 -40 0 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 0 10 20 30 40

NS

EW

Acceleration (cm/s )

-5 -10 10 5 0 -5 -10 0 10 5 0 -5 -10 0 10 20 30 40 10 20 30 40 0 10 20 30 40

EW

UD

UD

Time (s)

Time (s)

40 30

FF-WEST
20 10

20

0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -40

Amplitude Ratio

10 EW (cm/s )
2

1
EQ 141003 191103 180304 030704

-30

-20

-10

0
2

10

20

30

40

NS (cm/s )

0.1 0.1

10

20

West Free-field (NS-component; 16.06.04)

40

Frequency (Hz)
Acceleration
1 EQ: 16.06.04 EW NS UD

cm/s

20 0 -20 -40 10 0 10 20 30

Fourier Spectrum (cm/s)

0.1

40

mm/s

5 0 -5 -10 0.2 0.1 0 10 20 30

Velocity

0.01

1E-3

40

1E-4

Displacement

mm

0.0 -0.1 -0.2 0 10 20 30 40

1E-5 0.1

10

20

Frequency (Hz)

Time (s)

COSMOS-WSSI Project (60 SMA-1 Type Accelerographs)

Equipment donated by USGS in 2005

Microzonation Maps based on SPT-N value and Microtremor Study

COMBINED HAZARD INTENSITY MAP FOR DHAKA, BANGLADESH

Thank You