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UNVERSITATEA BABE-BOLYAI FACULTATEA DE GEOGRAFIE Centrul de Cercetare a Hazardelor i Riscurilor Geografice

RISCURI I CATASTROFE An XII, vol. 12, nr. 1/2013

Casa Crii de tiin Cluj-Napoca, 2013

Editor: Victor Sorocovschi Riscuri i catastrofe

Copyright, autorii, 2013

ISSN1584-5273

An XII

2013

CUPRINS CONTENT SOMMARE INHALT

FENOMENE CLIMATICE DE RISC Climatic risk phenomena ....................................................................................... 5 EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTH-EASTERN ROMANIA DECEMBER 2 3, 2012 ......................................................................................... 7
M. Bratu, C. Nichita

DROUGHT AND CANICULA IN THE AGRICULTURAL YEAR 2011-2012 IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF ROMANIA .............................................................. 23
I. Marinic, Andreea Floriana Marinic

THE REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND THE CLIMATIC WATER DEFICIT IN THE WESTERN PLAIN OF ROMANIA, NORTH OF THE MURE RIVER ...................................................................................... 35
Eugenia erban

ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT PHENOMENON WITHIN OLTENIA PLAIN, ROMANIA (1961-2010) ........................................................................................ 45


Alina Vldu, Irina Onel, Cristina Roca, Alina Chivu

CHARACTERISTICS OF ARIDITY CONDITIONS IN SOUTH DOBRUDJA........................................................................................................... 57


A. Tiscovschi, Gabriela Manea, O. Cocos, Iuliana Vijulie, Roxana Cuculici

CONSIDERATIONS ON THE THERMAL CONDITIONS IN THE REGHIN HILLS..................................................................................................................... 66


I.A. Irimu, J. Szilgyi

STUDY OF RAINFALL PERIODS IN THE CRASNA BASIN UNTIL THE CONFLENCE WITH ZALAU............................................................................... 77
Oana Moigrdean

THE EXCESS OF HUMIDITY AND ITS ASSOCIATED RISKS IN THE REGHIN HILLS..................................................................................................... 89
J. Szilgyi, I.A. Irimu

EXTREME HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA ON THE HYDROGRAPHICAL BASIN OF TIMI RIVER (1965-2009) .......................... 99
Andreea Mihaela Arba

THE INFLUENCE OF TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ON THE AIR POLLUTION IN THE CITY OF SIBIU.............................................................. 113
Astrid Ulrike Kber

FENOMENE HIDRICE DE RISC Hydrological risk phenomena ........................................................................... 123 SENSITIVITY OF THE HEC-HMS RUNOFF MODEL FOR NEAR-SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE CONTENTS ON THE EXAMPLE OF A RAPID-RESPONSE CATCHMENT IN SW HUNGARY........................ 125
P. Hegeds, S. Czigny, L. Balatonyi & E. Pirkhoffer

FLOOD RESILIENCE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN URBAN NIGERIA: INTEGRATING TRADITIONAL AND NON-STRUCTURAL METHODS OF MITIGATING AND ADAPTING TO FLOODING IN CROSS RIVER STATE, SOUTH-EASTERN NIGERIA (II)............................. 137
Richard Ingwe

THE SNOW CONDITION, THE AVALANCHES CAUSED AND THE DYNAMIC OF THE AVALANCHES CORRIDORS DURING THE WINTER 2007-2008. CASE STUDY, PADINILE FRUMOASE (PIATRA CRAIULUI MOUNTAINS, ROMANIA)................................................................................ 157
Anca Munteanu, Narcisa Milian, Laura Comanescu, Al.Nedelea

WATER INTERFERENCES: DEFINITION, LOCATION, NATURE OF PROCESS AND INDUCED EFFECTS WITH APPLICATIONS IN ROMANIA (I)...................................................................................................... 174
V. Sorocovschi, R. Btina

Recenzii Elena Teodoreanu, Clima i omul, prieteni sau dumani?, Editura Paideia, Bucureti, 2011......................................................................................................187
Florin Moldovan

Adina-Eliza Croitoru, V. Sorocovschi, Introducere n Bioclimatologie uman, Editura Casa Crii de tiin, 2012 ......................................................................189
Octavia Bogdan

Fenomene climatice de risc


Climatic risk phenomena

RISCURI I CATASTROFE, NR. XII, VOL. 12, NR. 1/2013

EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ROMANIA DECEMBER 2 3, 2012


M. BRATU1, C. NICHITA2
Abstract. - Explosive cyclogenesis over the south-eastern Romania december 2-3, 2012 . This paper is devoted to the study of the synopticdynamical conditions that contributed to the development of an rare explosive cyclogenesis event occurred at the beginning of 2012-2013 winter in southwestern Romania, more precisely between 2nd and 3th of December, 2012. The minimum pressure observed was 980,2 hPa, the lowest ever observed record in the surface of Sulina observation station, and also over the western side of Black Sea during period 1961-2000 and 1965-2004. It was found that the cyclone was not a regular one, but a real meteorological bomb one where the central pressure at sea level has recorded an important decrease at about 32,3 hPa in 24 hours, equivalent with 1,7 Bergeron. Comparative by XX century storms Lothar and Martin (level 2 and 1 on hurricane scale) which desolated western and central Europe in December 1999, this case of explosive cyclogenesis can be considered one of the extreme for our area concerning both meteorological view as well as the effects. Key words: explosive cyclogenesis, Bergeron unit, meteorological bomb.

1. Introduction There are quite frequent situations in some areas as Atlantic Ocean, Pacific Ocean and East Coast of USA (Roebber, 1984; Sanders, 1986; Gyakum et al.,1989), also often behind the seas with important surface thermal gradients of the water, where the transformation of a cyclone from the wave status to the maturity status happens so fast and with such an intensity, so that the atmospherical pressure reaches in a short time critical values, being characterized by abundant rains, strong winds (average wind >17 m/s) and dangerous significant wave height (swell) for the human activities, as for sea and air navigations. By definition, the extra tropical cyclone settled to precise latitude, whose pressure decrease in its center with a ratio of least 1hPa/ hour during 24 hours (Sanders and
1

Regional Weather Forecast Center Banat-Crisana, NMA, Romania, e-mail: marius.m.bratu@gmail.com 2 Regional Weather Forecast Center Banat-Crisana, NMA, Romania, e-mail:cristian.nichita76@gmail.com

M. BRATU, C. NICHITA

Gyakum, 1980) is called meteorological bomb. An analysis of the meteorological conditions, such as the heat flux and moisture budget, upper-air circulation features, has been performed by Gyakum and Danielson (2000) and by Strahl and Smith (2001). Analyzing a large number of bomb events in a time period of one week over the Pacific, they found that large surface heat fluxes are crucial in the case of explosive cyclogenesis. Recently, Nielsen and Sass (2003) in their study about North Sea severe storms have also identified the dynamic precursors such as potential vorticity (PV) generated by latent heat that brings a major contribution to the deepening of the studied cyclone. Closer to our geographical area, in the Mediterranean sea, where happen the most frequent cyclogenesis that influence the Romanias weather-climatic condition especially during the cold season, some important studies have been done by Lagouvardos (2006) and Michele Conte (1986). This work is dedicated to the investigation of a rare explosive cyclogenesis event happened over the South-Eastern of Romania territory and western side of Black Sea Basin, when an absolute record for the lowest atmospheric pressure (980,2 hPa) has been recorded at Sulina meteorological station on December 2 3, 2012. This value has been with 37 hPa lower than the previous observed with 23 hours before. Sustained winds and gale winds in eastern Romanian territory and western Black Sea exceeded in average 20-25 m s-1with gusts up to 38 m s-1, and they resulted in all the harbors were closed, the trees were lied down, the roofs were dislocated and damaged, the power supply network was interrupted and the wind power supplier was out of order. The gradual filling of cyclone slowly evolved in the next 15 hours (only 4 hPa pressure difference from the lowest one) till it was reached the mature stage. Near and on the back side of the low center, harsh weather conditions swept across the south-eastern Romanian territory, the Pontic Coast and the western Black Sea, also with important total rain accumulations in 12-24 hours (torrential rain between 20-60 l/m, with peaks at about 69...70 l/m and blizzard in the mountains area - Oriental Carpathian Mountains). The bomb analyzed in this work had a Mediterranean Aegean origin, and its evolution occurred on an unusual trans-balkanic trajectory (Fig. 1), deflected towards north in comparison with the classic one (type 2b) as it has been settled by C.Sorodoc (1962) and revised by Ecaterina Ion-Bordei (2009). It was conclude that the rapid deepening of the cyclone was associated with a short and rapid trough system (Stratospheric dry air intrusion - Figure 4 a), that, upon the influence of a very intense subtropical upper-level jet, has merged into a steady baro-clinic low-tropospheric environment still existent on the sea coast of Romania and Bulgaria. Prior to the rapid cyclogenesis, the growing trough acquired a negative tilt intensifying the process (Gaza and Bosar, 1990). Based on the WRFARW non-hydrostatic mezoscale limited area model simulations, we could conclude that the upper-level dynamic factor (trigger) was not the main reason that 8

EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTH-EASTERN ROMANIA DECEMBER 2 3, 2012

led to the growth and decay of the explosive cyclogenesis under study. The significant level of the surface latent heat (diabatic heat) released within the cyclone, during its explosive phase that generates an intense low-levels vortex (potential vorticity values observed at about 3 to 5 PVU for at least 9 hours), has contributed as a crucial factor to its rapid deepening. The most recent studies show that subsequent intensification could be the result of the apparition and growing of a diabatic Rossby wave (DRW) and of the nonlinear interaction of his short wave (mezo-scale 200 km) with the upper-level disturbance (Morre and Montgomery, 2003). This is the first approach to the synoptic setting of this kind of cyclogenesis event over Romanian territory. Sanders and Gyakum (1980) presented the first complete climatological study over this subject when they introduced the notion of explosive cyclone development or bomb cyclogenesis. But their study had focused over the Pacific and North Atlantic regions. In time, many other authors have come with additional interpretations. Recently, few investigations were made in the Mediterranean Basin, but some Greek and Italian authors such as Lagouvardos (2006) and Brunetti (2005) have focused upon this area. The Mediterranean Sea, due to its complex and particular geographical configuration as a closed and warm sea, is the reason why these phenomena are relatively frequent. Because this phenomenon is very rare at the latitude of Romania, and the majority of cyclogenesis have Mediterranean origins, we have considered useful to have as important reference the studies made by Brunetti and Moretti (2005) in the entire Mediterranean Sea Basin. From 1980 to 2004, 79 such events have occurred over the Mediterranean Sea, a medium of 3 events per year. The meteorological bombs started in October and ended in May. A maximum of events happened in December (18 events), when the sea is still very warm, followed by January with 15 events and the minimum of events happened in May. Fig. 2 indicates the frequency of the critical values expressed in Bergeron units, values observed between 1980 and 2004 (fig,2). The biggest drop of 1,59 Bergeron has been Figure 1. The 25 years geographic reached only once (on the 21st of distribution of the meteorological bomb events (cases number). From 1980 to 2004 in January, 1981), when the pressure the entire Mediterranean Sea Basin ( Brunetti reached 27 hPa in 24 hours at the and Moretti 2005) latitude of 39N. Similar events have never been recorded during June, July, August and September. Brunetti and Moretti (2005) provided also a very useful 9

M. BRATU, C. NICHITA

list of the meteorological bombs from the Mediterranean Sea, which contains the date, the initial and final pressure values and also the differences between them, the recorded Bergeron value, the latitude and longitude of the maximum deepening, the geographical area, the type of cyclogenesis (eg. frontal, continental, African). An important cyclogenesis is the Aegean type (Fig. 1), with 6 events in a quarter of century. In our case the cyclogenesis has been initiated also in the Aegean Sea Basin, and in less than 24 hours the central pressure of 32,3 hPa measured at 12 UTC, December 2nd, fell to 06 UTC, December 3rd (Fig. 3, left) corresponding to 1,7 Bergeron and thus the low pressure system can Figure 2. The Bomb frequency events over refer to a strong bomb. the Mediterranean Basin from 1980 to 2004,
(Brunetti and Moretti 2005)

Figure 3. Observed 36-h central pressure fall inside the cyclon (left) and at Sulina weather station (right) from 09 UTC 02 Dec to 21 UTC 03 Dec 2012

According to the MEDEX (MEDiteranean EXperiment) database constructed by ECMWF analyses, this case was the deepest cyclone observed in the entire Romanian area including western Black Sea Basin during 1965-2004 period. At that time the weather station Sulina reported an extraordinary pressure fall of 37,5 hPa in 24 hours (Fig. 3, right) and a minimum pressure of 980,2 hPa; this minimum can be considered a new record after the latest record value of 980,9 hPa (Table 1) according with 1961-2000 NMA database records. There are a lot of studies starting with Sanders and Gyacum (1980) that describe the synoptic upper air aspects of explosive cyclogenesis. 10

EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTH-EASTERN ROMANIA DECEMBER 2 3, 2012

Table. 1 The monthly and annual lowest pressure at Sulina weather station (1961-2000)
Jan hPa New Record 983.0 Feb 981.6 Mar 983.5 Apr 987.3 May 993.2 Jun 989.7 Jul 993.5 Aug 996.6 Sep 988.3 Oct 993.7 Nov 985.8 Dec 980.9 980.2 Annual 980.9 980.2

The main factors are: horizontal temperature gradient especially for sea water temperature, surface heat fluxes, diabatic heating, air-sea instability, jet influences from high troposphere, tropopause folds. Examining a number of cases, Bruce and Elmar (1988) made an analytical study of continental bombs development over the Eastern United States, making comparisons between a regular cyclogenesis and an explosive one. They found significant signatures especially in divergence, vorticity advection and tendency, latent heating and static stability which allow distinctions between bombs and regular cyclones. More recently, according to Parker and Thorpe (1995), and also to Morre and Montgomery (2003), reexamining the dynamics of short-scale, they established that the diabatic Rossby waves growth mechanism (DRW) may play an important role, being considered a precursor for an explosive cyclogenesis.

2. Data and Methods


The method used in this work has been discovered by Tor Bergeron (18911977), who studied for the first time the synoptic climatology and the motion of this process on the extra-tropical cyclones from the North Atlantic Ocean. He has established the following principle to identify a meteorological bomb that is used till today: the pressure in the center of cyclone must decrease with at least 1hPa per hour during a period of 24 hours. The Bergeron definition, undertaken by Sanders and Gyakum (1980) to analyze the concept of explosive cyclogenesis (bomb), had as reference the 60N latitude. In order to monitor step by step the intensity and track of the meteorological bomb, it was used the Bergeron formula:
NDR c =

where pc represents the pressure variation in the center and represents the latitude. The Bergeron formula allows us to obtain a critic NDRc ratio (normalized deepening rate of central pressure) according to the latitude we want to use. When the pressure variation is of 1hPa/hour and = 60, the NDR c = 1, namely the threshold value of 1B (Bergeron unit) where the explosive cyclogenesis can start to happen.

p c sin 60 24 | sin |

1hPa / hour sin 60 / sin 70 = 0,92hPa / hour


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The measure obtained by Bergeron indicates the decreasing speed of the atmosphere pressure in the depression center settled to certain latitude. The critic ratio of 1B is considered a threshold value for an explosive cyclogenesis. This indicator can vary from 28 hPa in 24 hours (at the poles) to approximately 9 hPa in 24 hours (at 20 N latitude), this last value being calculated at the southern limit where the phenomenon was been observed till now. The Italian National Weather Service from the Mediterranean Sea basin has adopted critical value 1 Bergeron that represents a lowering of the pressure in the center of at least 17 hPa in 24 hours (which corresponds to the average latitude of 38 N). In the case of the Black Sea basin, we have considered 19 hPa as the critical value for 1 Bergeron (19,6=24/1,22 ;1 hPa/hour x sin 60/sin 45 = 1,22 hPa/hour), for the medium value of 45 N. In our case, the lowest value for the atmospheric pressure was 980.2 hPa (37,5 hPa in 24h) recorded in Sulina, and the highest value of the atmospheric pressure was 1012,5 hPa registrated in in the initial stage of the cyclone over the Aegean Sea. Considering as reference the pressure variation of 32,3 hPa (1012,5980,2=32,3) in 24 hours in the center of the cyclone, in the case of our country the critic ratio has reached the extreme value of 1,7 Bergeron (32,3:19 = 1,7), comparing with our neighbor (the Mediterranean Sea Basin), where rarely the value of 1,59 was reached (Brunetti and Moretti,2005).
(a) (b) (c)

(d)

(e)

(f)

Fig. 4. Analysis of pc in 24 h (black line, contours are labeled in 1 hPa) and

NDRc 1 (green aria) at: a) 03 UTC 03 Dec 2012, b) 06 UTC 03 Dec 2012,

c) 09 UTC 03 Dec 2012, d) 12 UTC 03 Dec 2012, e) 15 UTC 03 Dec 2012, f) 18 UTC 03 Dec 2012.

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In this way the indicator NDRc has been monitored during 15 hours (at every 3 hours) and the conclusion is that there is a gradual increase of its value from 1 Bergeron to 1,7 Bergeron, from the explosive deepest status of the cyclone (Fig. 4 a, b, c, d) up to the maturity status (Fig. 4 e, f).

3. Results
This event took place in a quite abnormal climatic conditions, with a neutral NAO index and slightly negative AO index (-1...-1.5). A low pressure area dominating the central Mediterranean Basin was linked with a large persistent Rossby wave (geopotential negative anomaly), that remained for 3 weeks in Western Europe (Fig. 4). A maritime arctic air mass came from north-west Europe and reached Italy and Balkan Peninsula. The main cold front that came separated the chill unstable Italian air mass from the warm, also unstable eastern Mediterranean air mass. (a) (b)

(c)

(d)

Figure. 5. Analysis of mean-sea-level pressure (contours are labeled in 1 hPa) at: a) 12 UTC 02 Dec 2012 in the incipient phase I, b) 21 UTC 02 Dec 2012 in the incipient phase II, c) 06 UTC 03 Dec 2012 in the explosive phase, d) 18 UTC 03 Dec 2012 in the mature phase

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As well, both Mediterranean and Black Sea experienced positive sea temperature anomalies in the surface layer in December. Regarding the Black Sea, the surface temperature was between 11-14C, with 3-6 C upper than the monthly normal values. At 00 UTC in December 2nd, the cyclone we analyzed here was not formed yet. At 12 UTC 02 December, a low-pressure area in the incipient phase I with 1008,3 hPa in its center, was located in the maritime Eastern area of Greece (Fig. 5, a). There were two disturbances, a short-wave over the area of the Ionian Sea with its axis extending NV-SE (negatively titled) and a cut-off low over the Sicilian Channel, observed at the 500 hPa level (fig. 6 a, b). A strong upper-level subtropical jet (STJ) accompanied the cut-off wave, reaching a maximum value of ~45 m/s (Fig. 6, b).

Figure. 6. Analysis of 500 hPa geopotential height (solid line at 40 m intervals and of 300 hPa wind speed - shaded contours at 1 m/s values, greater than 50 m/s are shown) and surface locations (indicated by white circle) of the meteorological bomb at: a) 00 UTC 02 Dec 2012, b) 12 UTC 02 Dec 2012, c) 00 UTC 03 Dec 2012, d) 12 UTC 03 Dec 2012

During the following 12 hours, at 21 UTC December 2nd, the low pressure was in its incipient phase II in southern continental Bulgaria with a central minimum pressure of 998,8 hPa (Fig. 5 b). Regarding the 500 hPa two-trough 14

EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTH-EASTERN ROMANIA DECEMBER 2 3, 2012

system (~5500 m above the sea level), we observe geopotential thalwegs: one in the western part (over the Sicilian channel), almost quasi-stationary inoculated in Atlantic polar flux, and another one in the eastern part (over the Balkan area) moving on a SV-NE trajectory under the influence of the Subtropical Jet. At the 300 hPa level it can be observed intensification till 56-60 m/s over the southern edge of trough, and also a detachment over northern edge of the trough of an isolated jets streak (Drift), accompanying the cyclogenesis process (Fig. 6, c). At the same 500 hPa level, as a band, we can see two vorticity advection areas (Fig. 7 c): one over the east of Aegean Sea, Marmara Sea towards the low centre, and another one, less pronounced, over the eastern part of Romania, Moldavian Republic and southern Ukraine. The trough axis is still negatively tilted, thus generating cyclonic vorticity (Gaza and Bosar, 1990). It can be note that the cyclonic vorticity advection as a dynamical factor begins with 12 hours before the cyclone development (Fig. 7 b) and is more evident over eastern Romania and western Black Sea Basin. Warm advection at the same 500 hPa level is evident over the Black Sea, Moldavia Republic and Ukraine (Fig. 7 b, c). During the following 9 hours in December 3rd, the low pressure system moved northwards, rapidly deepening first to 991,2 hPa at 00 UTC and to 985,0 hPa at 03 UTC (Fig. 6, c).. The explosive phase has just started. The intrusion of stratospheric dry stable air in the troposphere levels, visible on the satellite infrared WV Channel as a black tongue shape (Santurette and Georgiev 2005) indicates the presence of an active dynamic tropopause anomaly. (a) (b) (c) (d)

Figure 7. Mean-sea-level pressure, 500 hPa positive vorticity advection (10-8Ks-2), 500 hPa temperature positive advection (10-4Ks-1) at: a) 00 UTC 02 Dec 2012, b) 12 UTC 02 Dec 2012, c) 00 UTC 03 Dec 2012, d) 12 UTC 03 Dec 2012

That has been identified based on the analysis of the Ertels potential vorticity (PV) field (magenta contour lines, taking as a reference value 1 PVU from the dynamic tropopause. The maximum potential vorticity area (PV max) became gradually narrower. The intrusion of dry air created local instability and upward motions that led to the organization of deep convection into a line on the eastern flank of the intrusion . At 06 UTC, December 3rd, the mezo-scale low-pressure has 15

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reached its minimum pressure (980,2 hPa) over the northern Dobruja (Fig.6 c). According to Sanders and Gyakum model (1980), explosive cyclogenesis occurs when the deepening of the cyclone exceeds 1 Bergeron. In the area over Black Sea (at ~45N latitude), 1 Bergeron equals 19 hPa in 24 h. Therefore the 24-our central pressure fall from 1012,5 hPa at 12 UTC December 2nd to 980,2 at 06 UTC December 3rd corresponds to 1.7 Bergeron and thus to a strong bomb. Important modifications of dynamic nature have occurred in the upper-level above the 500 hPa level, with 6 hours before the beginning of the explosive phase. The curvature trough amplified and the gradient of geopotential height depeened .At that time in the low-levels, a critical potential vorticity anomaly of about 4.5-5 PVU appeared with a comma shape (Fig. 16, right). As inferred by the strong pressure gradient (~13 hPa pressure change in just 100 km range around the storm center), the prevailing winds, first in the eastern sector and then in the western sector, reached their maximum intensity in south-eastern Romania, over Black Sea coast and western Black Sea (Fig. 8, 9) between December 2nd and 3rd.

Figure. 8 Analysis of pressure tendency (color dots line at 0.5 hPa intervals) and of average wind speed (shaded contours at 1 km/h values, Figure. 9. Surface wind observations from the greater than 60 km/h are shown in surface synoptic network during the storm black solid lines) in the explosive phase at 06 UTC 03 Dec 2012

The local station registrated high intensity winds that exceeded 20 m/s and gusts of over 32 m/s. Max wind gusts at Gloria Oil Platform (15477), Medgidia (15462) and Sulina (15360) have reached 35-38 m s 1 which means the first level on the hurricane Saffir-Simpson scale, the same as for the Lothar and Martin cyclones (levels 2 and 1 on hurricane scale), that devastated western and central Europe in December 1999. The satellite images provide a clear overview to describe the mezo-scale evolution of our cyclone.

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Short after an explosive stage, a clear defined eye along with spiral structured cloud bands was visible from MSG-2 (RGB Channel) satellite images during the morning on 3rd of December at 07 UTC . The polar NOAA-MODIS images show at a higher resolution the location of the low in the neighborhood of Odessa City (Ukraine) with a clearly defined eye. During the next 12 hours, the cyclone reached a mature stage . During the explosive phase, the largest deepening occurs from surface to 850 hPa and is related to an intense moisture convergence field coming from the Black Sea (east-northeast sector) and toward the cyclone center (Fig. 10, 11, 12 left). In December 4th, the cyclone dissipated over the northern part of the Russian Plain, after moving over ~2000 km with an average speed of 50-55 km/h in the explosive phase . This is connected with an intense low level vortex associated with ascending moist air movement that produced a rapid pressure drop, condensation, latent heat release and a thermal profile that is typical for warm cyclones between 850 and 700 hPa. A closer analysis of potential vorticity anomaly field provided us the idea that the subsequent intensification could be the result of a growing diabatic Rossby wave (DRW) and of the nonlinear interaction of its short wave (small-scale less than 500 km) with the upper-level disturbance (Morre and Montgomery, 2003). The WRF-ARW 3.4.1 non-hydrostatic numerical model was used in a one nested grid configuration, with a finest horizontal resolution of 4.5 km, to simulate the low-level vortex genesis and evolution (potential vorticity) also surface latent heat flux. The simulations were initialized with GFS spectral model at 00 UTC 03 December 2012. Note that the maximum PV (read shaded contours) coincides very well with maximum moisture convergence area and with the maximum current lines. This means that the appearance of adiabatic waves is tied with the moisture convergence and with the maximum low jet intensity in the south-east sector. In the mature phase, the lower vortex level was depleted, energetically consumed in the upper troposphere levels by the presence of cyclonic vorticity advection. The model maps highlighted that the PV magnitude was maintained at high values at the same previous values (4-5 PVU) for another 5-6 hours while the low-pressure system was away from the Black Sea area. In the next hours, the wave started to rotate (Fig. 11, right), reaching a minimum historical pressure of 980.2 hPa. The role of surface heat fluxes has been investigated in many cases of explosive (as well as ordinary) cyclogenesis and it is considered to be a crucial feature during the cyclogenetical process (Gyakun and Danielson, 2000). Since 03 December, 03 UTC, the heating flux (just surface latent heat shown) gradually increased during the explosive phase reaching the maximum from 07 to 10 UTC at 17

M. BRATU, C. NICHITA

Figures 10, 11, 112right, present a series of 925 and 850 hPa potential vorticity at 01, 03 and 06 UTC 03 December. The Ertel potential vorticity is given in PVU 6 2 1 1 (potential vorticity units) or 10 km kg s . Few hours prior the explosive phase, around 00-01 UTC December 3rd, near the border line between Romania and Bulgaria (Fig. 10, right), the first high PV values of 3.5 - 4 PVU appeared first at the lower level of 925 hPa (600-700 meters high), while at 850 hPa (1300-1500 meters high) the values were of only 2 PVU. In the next three hours, over the continental part of Dobruja, the PV magnitude will reach the phenomenal 5 PVU on both two levels (Fig. 11, right). Note that the maximum PV (read shaded contours) coincides very well with maximum moisture convergence area and with the maximum current lines. This means that the appearance of adiabatic waves is tied with the moisture convergence and with the maximum low jet intensity in the south-east sector. In the mature phase, the lower vortex level was depleted, energetically consumed in the upper troposphere levels by the presence of cyclonic vorticity advection. The model maps highlighted that the PV magnitude was maintained at high values at the same previous values (4-5 PVU) for another 5-6 hours while the low-pressure system was away from the Black Sea area. In the next hours, the wave started to rotate (Fig. 11, right), reaching a minimum historical pressure of 980.2 hPa. The role of surface heat fluxes has been investigated in many cases of explosive (as well as ordinary) cyclogenesis and it is considered to be a crucial feature during the cyclogenetical process (Gyakun and Danielson, 2000). Since 03 December, 03 UTC, the heating flux (just surface latent heat shown) gradually increased during the explosive phase reaching the maximum from 07 to 10 UTC at about 330 W/m 2 (Fig. 12). For comparison, even if these values are lower than the typical values of a hurricane-like system (600-800 W/m 2 ), it should be noted that the heating fluxes increased leading to cyclone deepening and the latent heat flux is much stronger than the sensible heat flux (not shown), similar as in a hurricane-like system. Phenomena associated with this "meteorological bomb" consisted not so much in the accumulation of precipitation, but especially in wind gusts that reached level 1 on the hurricane Saffir-Simpson scale (85 mph or 137 km/h). Also, in off the Black Sea coast the waves reached 10 meters in high, and the water had retracted with 40 meters toward the coast, recording also very strong rip tides. At that time the local and national Mass media had related the damages of this explosive cyclogenesis. The disastrously effects in Constanta and Tulcea counties, during the night of 02-03 December 2012 were: the winds reached over 100 km/h and tens of trees and electricity pilings were laid down, national roads were 18

EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTH-EASTERN ROMANIA DECEMBER 2 3, 2012

Figure. 10. Observation Analysis of mean-sea-level-pressure (read solid lines at 2 hPa intervals), of surface moisture convergence (shaded color contours), of surface streamlines wind (green lines), and of SST anomaly (shaded contours in Centigrades) at 03 UTC 03 Dec 2012 (left)0Model Analysis of potential vorticity anomaly (shaded color contours at 0.5 PVU intervals) at 00 UTC 03 Dec 2012 (right)

Figure 11. Observation Analysis of mean-sea-level-pressure (read solid lines at 2 hPa intervals), surface moisture convergence (shaded color contours), surface streamlines wind (green lines), and SST anomaly (shaded contours in Centigrades) at 03 UTC 03 Dec 2012 (left). Model Analysis of potential vorticity anomaly (shaded color contours at 0.5 PVU intervals) at 03 UTC 03 Dec 2012 (right)

Figure 12. Surface Latent heat flux on 03 December at 07 UTC (left) and 10 UTC (right)

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blocked, electricity was interrupted for many hours. Only in Constanta County, 28 cities remained without water, the gas network was damaged, 22 schools and 348 houses were distressed. In the case of schools, the financial loss was around 1.888.000 RON. In Medgidia, the roof of a house was removed, and a high school from Poarta Alba remained without roof, all the windows were broken, and some walls were dislocated. The 8 level storm (on the Douglas scale) started on the sea had forced the local authorities to close the ports at the North Sea. In Galati, the strong wind had removed the advertising panels, had broken the trees, the road signals and a power pit. In Braila, a tree had blocked the tram line, and the storm was followed by a rainfall during all night, recording 40 l/sqm. In all Dobruja area, half of the eolian stations were out of order for at least 24 hours, and the nuclear reactor from Cernavoda was turned off for technical verifications only 3 days after this event finished. The most quantitative rains had recorded in Slobozia and Ialomita counties; during less than 12 hours the quantities of water were recorded values between 30 and 69 l/sqm, as result floodings produced. In Slobozia a pick of 70 l/mp was recorded in less than 12 hours. Important floods were recorded also in Barlad County. There were recorded effects in republic of Moldavia also. The strong winds and rainfalls had interrupted the electricity in 80 villages, had removed the roofs, and in Chisinau many streets were flooded.

4. Conclusions
Analyzed case fits well into the criteria established by Sanders and Gyakum regarding the explosive cyclogenesis, as one predominantly maritime type, specific on cold season (December), having in maximum deepening phase the features of a tropical cyclone (hurricane), both in wind field (powerful wind, devastating hula) and in terms of clouds appearance (spiral shaped cloud system at sub-synoptic scale, eye formed above the cyclone surprised by satellite images). Superficial surface temperature of the water in the western and southern basin of the Black Sea showed a significant discontinuity and a positive anomaly of 3 to 6 Celsius degrees, which, on an eastern circulation, increasing considerably by convergence warm and humid air contribution to the center of the cyclone. Given the rarity of this phenomenon in our geographical region, unprecedented in recent history, it is necessary to reconsider this type of rapid cyclogenesis. On this research which is not an analytical one, we tried to investigate which factors (diabatic or dynamic) have the largest share in its initiation and production. Although cyclogenesis was initiated over the Aegean Sea by a classical processes such the positive advection of vorticity and divergence in the upper troposphere, we found that deepening of the bomb in southeastern Romania took place under 20

EXPLOSIVE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE SOUTH-EASTERN ROMANIA DECEMBER 2 3, 2012

the diabatic mechanisms rapidly associate to these processes, that generated for a short time (6-9 hours) in low-levels an intense mezoscalar vortex over baroclinic zone (positive PV anomaly) that was depleting it later in upper levels during the mature stage. The major development occurs when the presence of cyclonic vorticity in upper levels continues in spite of the diabatic mechanism tending to weaken it. The surface latent heat fluxes and the pontic marine features (SST anomaly) seem to play a key role in the deepening of the storm and less one during its mature phase. The aim of this paper is to understand the synoptic and dynamic mechanisms relevant to this development inside Romanian geographical environment and to use it further for similar cases. For meteorologist and operational weather forecaster, it is therefore very important to recognize on the satellite analyses and different numerical prognosis maps this phenomena features usually accompanied by high-impact and weather risk. REFERENCES
1. Sanders F, Gyakum JR (1980) Synoptic-dynamic climatology of the Bomb. Mon. Weather Rev. 108: 1589-1606. 2. Bruce CM, Elmar RR, (1988), Explosive Cyclogenesis over the Eastern United States, Mon. Weather Rev. 116: 1568-1586. 3. Gaza RS, Bosard LF. (1990) Trough-merger characteristics over North America. Weather and Forecasting. 5, 341-331. 4. Gyakum JR, Danielson RE, (2000) Analysis of meteorological precursors to ordinary and explosive cyclogenesis in the western North Pacific. Mon. Weather Rev. 128: 851863. 5. Strahl JLS, Smith PJ, (2001) A diagnostic study of an explosively developing extratropical cyclone and an associated 500-hPa trough merger. Mon. Weather Rev. 129: 2310-2328. 6. Nielsen NW, Sass BH, (2003) A numerical, high-resolution study of the life cycle of the severe storm over Denmark on 3 December 1999. Tellus 55A: 338-351. 7. Morre RW, Montgomery MT, (2003) Reexamining the Dynamics of Short-Scale, Diabatic Rossby Waves and Their Role in Midlatitude Moist Cyclogenesis. J. Atmos. Sci. 61. 8. Parker, DJ, Thorpe AJ, (1995) Conditional convective heating in a baroclinic atmosphere: A model of convective frontogenesis. J. Atmos. Sci., 52. 9. Ecaterina Ion-Bordei, (2009) Rolul lantului alpinino-carpatic in evolutia ciclonilor mediteraneeni. Printech Press, Bucharest, 82-91. 10. Conte M., (1986), The meteorological bomb in the Mediterranean: a synoptic climatology .Aeronautical Meteorology Rev, 46. 11. Brunetti, M., Paolo Capizzi, (1996) Ciclogenesi sul Mediterraneo. Aeronautical Meteorology Rev, 56.

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12. Brunetti, M, Antonio Moretti, (2005) Le ciclogenesi del Mediterraneo. Un quarto di secolo de osservazioni . Aeronautical Meteorology Rev, 65. 13. Santurette P, Georgiev C.G., (2005) Weather Analysis and Forecasting - Applying Satellite Water Vapor Imagery and Potential Vorticity Analysis. Elsevier Academic Press, Oxford.

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RISCURI I CATASTROFE, NR. XII, VOL. 12, NR. 1/2013

DROUGHT AND CANICULA IN THE AGRICULTURAL YEAR 2011-2012 IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF ROMANIA
I. MARINIC1, ANDREEA FLORIANA MARINIC2
Abstract. - Drought and Canicula in the Agricultural Year 2011-2012 in the South-West of Romania. The atypical weather during 2011 has also continued in 2012 (Marinic 2006, Bogdan, Marinic 2007, Marinic & all, 2011). Consequently, the winter of 2011, in Oltenia had two distinct parts: a first warmish and droughty part, and a second cold part, marked by drought too. In November, the weather was colder than usual. This was the first excessively droughty autumn of the last 13 autumns in Oltenia. During the winter of 2011-2012, although most of it was warm, there were registered 20 days of excessive frost and abundant snowfalls (25 January 2012-15 February 2012). In April 2012 the drought continued. The excessively warmish weather returned in summer, associated with an intense drought. On the whole the agricultural year 2011-2012 was an excessively droughty year (ED), and the excessive drought was mainly registered in two essential periods: in autumn and during the whole summer, namely in the periods in which there is a maximum need of water. The paper analyses in detail the characteristics of this agricultural year and the consequences on crops. Key words: drought, canicular heat, frost, thermal and hydric stress.

1. Introduction In this time interval, the crops bears significant thermal variations from the cold and frost of winter to the heat, canicular heat and sun glow of summer. Hydrically, the variations are extremely high from the drought period in the first part of autumn (minimum pluviometric) to the rainy period in the second part of autumn (secondary maximum pluviometric), then the solid and mixed precipitations during winter, the main maximum pluviometric during spring and first part of summer and in the last part of summer the droughty period usually returns. From germination and emergence up to harvest, during all vegetation stages phenomena of thermal and hydric stress occur, representing critical period for plants, caused by natural climatic variations (Sandu & all 2010). We will further analyze the climatic and agroclimatic aspects of the agricultural year 20112012.
1 2

Regional Meteorological Center Oltenia, e-mail: ionmarinica@yahoo.com B.Sc., Jacobs University Bremen, Germany, marinica.andreea@gmail.com.

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2. Materials and Methods For our research on this interval of analysis we used the data from Oltenia MRC Archive, NAM Bucharest (National Administration of Meteorology), maps drafted by the Laboratory of Agrometeorology (NAM), synoptic maps, data provided by the archive of satellite and radar images , as well as the facilities provided by Office.

3. Results and Discussions


3.1. The warmish and droughty autumn of 2011. The thermal regime of the autumn of 2011. The seasonal average values were comprised between 9.1C in Voineasa in the submountainous area and 12.6C in the south-west and west of Oltenia Dr. Tr. Severin and Calafat. Their deviations from the multiannual means calculated for the interval 1901 1990 were comprised between -0.9C in Slatina and +1.9C in Voineasa. The classification of thermal time type for this autumn, according to Hellmann Criterion were comprised between normal (N) in most of the region and warm (W) in Voineasa. The seasonal mean calculated for the entire region was 10.8C, and its deviation from the normal was 0.3C which leads to the conclusion that the average autumn was thermally normal (N). However, September imposes itself as a warm month (W) for the entire region, according to the monthly means and their deviations. The thermal regime of September 2011. The monthly temperature means were comprised between 18.5C in Bcle and 22.8C in Calafat, and their deviations from the monthly multiannual temperature means were comprised between 0.9C in Slatina and 9.3C in Voineasa, designating a thermal regime comprised between normal (N) in Slatina and very warm (VW) in Bileti, Tg. Logreti, Polovragi, Voineasa, Parng and Ob. Lotrului. The general mean deviation for the entire region was 3.9C, which designates a warm month (W) for the entire region. All days of September were summer days. Of all these a number of 18 days were tropical days, namely they had daily maximum thermal values 30C. The pluviometric regime of the autumn of 2011. The seasonal sums of precipitations registered in the autumn of 2011 were comprised between 14.0 l/m2 in Bcle in Mehediniului Hills and 56.2 l/m2 in Bechet in the south of Oltenia Plain. The percentage deviations of these deviations from the multiannual means were comprised between -90.3% in Bcle and -58.3% in Bechet which leads to a classification of the pluviometric time type at the meteorological stations in Oltenia as exceptionally droughty (ED) in the whole region, an aspect confirmed also by 24

DROUGHT AND CANICULA IN THE AGRICULTURAL YEAR 2011-2012 IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF ROMANIA

the general mean for the entire region of 33.7 l/m2 and its percentage deviation of 78.7%. The smallest values of temperatures were registered in November 2011 with values of 0 l/m2 in most part Oltenia Plain and with a general mean for the entire region of 1.1 l/m2, being the droughtiest month registered after 1950, constituting a climatic record. In the end of autumn, on 30 November 2011, in Oltenia the moderate drought (MD) was present on extended areas in the south-west, north-east of the region (humidity reserve in the soil layer 0-50 cm between 300 and 600 m3/ha) and in the most part of the region was satisfactory (SV). 3.2. Winter of 2011-2012. The thermal regime of the winter of 20112012. The seasonal temperature means were comprised between -2.5C in the Subcarpathian Depressions area in Apa Neagr and 0C in Dr. Tr. Severin in the west of the region. Their deviations from the multiannual means were comprised between -1.5C in Apa Neagr and -0.1C in Bcle, and according to Hellmann criterion the classification of thermal time type in this winter were comprised between cool (CO) in Bechet, Slatina, Apa Neagr and Parng and normal (N) in most part of the region. December and January were warmish (WS) month, but February especially in the interval 1-15 February was excessively cold. The thermal regime of February 2012. The monthly average temperature values in the air were comprised between -6.6C in Caracal in the south-east of Oltenia and -3.9C in Rm. Vlcea in Olt Couloir, and their deviations from the multiannual means were comprised between -6.2C in Bechet in the south of the region and -2.7C in Voineasa, in the submountainous area. According to Hellmann criterion, the thermal time type in Oltenia were comprised between very cold (VC) in most part of Oltenia Plain in Tg. Logreti and in the Subcarpathian Depression Apa Neagr and cold (CL) in the high hills and mountainous area. The minimum temperature values in the air were comprised between -28.9C in Bileti and -17.9C registered in Drgani both being registered on 1 February, and the monthly minimum temperatures mean was -23.1C, lower than in January. The minimum temperature values in Calafat (-26.1C), Bechet (-24.0C), Bileti (-28.9C) Tg. Logreti (-28.1C), Apa Neagr (-28.4C) and Obria Lotrului (-28.6C), constituting climatic records for these stations, being the lowest of all the existent data. The minimum temperature values at the soil surface were extremely low and were ranged between -23C in Rm. Vlcea and -32.2C in Tg. Logreti, registered on 9 February, and at some meteorological stations on 1 and 2 February. The thermal regime of the winter of 2011-2012. The seasonal precipitations values in this winter were comprised between 123.2 l/m2 in Bechet and 232.9 l/m2 in Apa Neagr, and their percentage deviations from the normal 25

I. MARINIC, ANDREEA FLORIANA MARINIC

values were extremely diverse and were ranged between -19.2% in Polovragi in the subcarpathian depressions area and 70.2 l/m2 in Craiova in the central part of the region leading to a classification of pluviometric time types from droughty (D) in Polovragi and excessively rainy in Craiova. The general mean for the entire region was 148.8 l/m2, and its percentage deviation from the normal general mean was of 8.5% which designates a pluviometric normal winter (N). The good pluviometric situation is due to the interval 24 January-10 February which was excessively rainy. December 2011 was excessively droughty (ED). January was excessively rainy also due to the aforementioned interval. February was very rainy (VR). In the end of winter, on 30 January water reserve in the soil layer of 0-100 cm was almost optimum (ApO) in most part of the region and optimum in the central part of the region. The pluviometric regime in the winter of 2012. The seasonal quantities of precipitations were comprised between 44.0 l/m2 in Caracal and 207.3 l/m2 in Apa Neagr, and their deviations from the multiannual means were comprised between -73.7% in Caracal in Romanailor Plain and -10.6% in Apa Neagr. There was one exception in Bcle in Mehediniului Hills where it was 28.1% due to the local conditions which favored some significant showers on a very restricted area, which leads to a classification of pluviometric time types in the summer of 2012 from very droughty (VD) to exceptionally droughty (ED) in most part of the region (81.3% of the territory). There is one exception in Bcle where the summer was very rainy (VR), but on a restricted area. The drought intensity was small in the areas of Rm. Vlcea and Apa Neagr where it was droughty (D) and little droughty (LD) due to the conditional local too. The water reserve in the end of August in the unirrigated corn crop, on the soil depth of 0-100 cm registered low and extremely low values, the pedological drought being moderate (MD), severe (SD) and extreme (ED), on almost all agricultural territory of the country, and in Oltenia the extreme drought (ED) and severe drought (SD) was extended in all the region, excepting the north-east of Vlcea county where the drought was moderate (MD). 3.3. Spring of 2012. The thermal regime of the spring of 2012. The seasonal temperature means in this spring were comprised between 9.1C in Voineasa and 14.2C in Bileti in Oltenia Plain. Their deviations from the multiannual means were comprised between 1.3C in Slatina and 2.7C in Apa Neagr which leads to a classification of thermal time types from warm (W) in most part of the region to very warm (VW) in Bileti and Drgani. In detail, March and April were warm (W), and more warmish (WS) on average and normal (N) in the plain area. In March monthly maximum temperature values were registered in the last decade and were comprised between 21.3C in Polovragi and 26.3C in Bechet. There were registered two days with maximum thermal values 25C (summer days) on 18 and 19 March. In April the monthly maximum 26

DROUGHT AND CANICULA IN THE AGRICULTURAL YEAR 2011-2012 IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF ROMANIA

temperature values were registered in the last five days of the month and were ranged between 26.6C in Bcle and 29.3C in Dr. Tr. Severin. In May the monthly maximum temperature values in the air were comprised between 28.1C in Polovragi and 33.0C in Calafat, and most of them were registered on 12. The pluviometric regime of the spring of 2012. The seasonal temperature means were comprised between 121.9 l/m2 in Caracal in Romanailor Plain and 461.4 l/m2 in Polovragi in the subcarpathian depressions area. The deviations of these quantities from the normal values were comprised between -20.5 l/m2 in Voineasa and 236.2 l/m2 in Polovragi. We notice only two negative deviations: in Voineasa and in Caracal in Romanailor Plain (-20.3 l/m2). The general mean for the entire region was 237.4 l/m2, designating the spring of 2012 as the rainiest season of this agricultural year. The percentage deviations were ranged between 14.3% in Caracal and 104.9% in Polovragi, which leads to a classification of pluviometric time types from little droughty (LD) in Caracal and Voineasa and exceptionally rainy in Craiova, TG. Logreti and Polovragi. The deviation of the general mean from the normal was of 58.9 l/m2, which leads to the classification of a very rainy spring (VR). March is an excessively droughty (ED) month in Oltenia area, April a very rainy (VR) month and May excessively rainy (ER) in all Oltenia with a general mean of 149.6 l/m2 and a deviation from the normal of 69.6 l/m2 (86.9%). In the end of May (30 May 2012), the water soil reserve which is accessible to the autumn wheat plants on the depth of 0-100 cm was optimum (O) in the north of the region, almost optimum (AO) in the median part of the region and almost satisfactory (AS) in the south-east of the region. On the soil depth of 0-50 cm, on the same date, the water soil reserve in the corn crop was excessive (E) in the north-west of the region, optimum (O) in the north-east of the region and extreme south (Bechet area) and almost optimum (AO) in the southern half, and almost satisfactory (AS) in the extreme south-east of Romanaiului Plain.

3.4 Canicular and drought summer of 2012. Climatic aspects of June 2012.
Thermal air temperature regime in June 2012. The monthly maximum temperature values were comprised between 32.2C in Voineasa and 38.2C in Bechet, and the monthly maximum temperature values mean for the entire region was 34.4C. The canicular days (Tmax35C) were registered in the southern half of the region and their number ranged from 1 in Slatina and Rm. Vlcea to 5 in Calafat. The scorching heat days (Tmax32C) were registered in the entire region excepting the submountainous area, and their number ranged from 1 in the subcarpathian depressions area in Polovragi and 14 in Calafat. 27

I. MARINIC, ANDREEA FLORIANA MARINIC

The monthly temperature means were comprised between 18.4C in Voineasa and 25.0C in Oltenia Plain in Bileti, and the general mean for the entire region was 22.1C. The deviations of the monthly temperature means from the multiannual means were comprised between 2.0C in Bechet and 6.0C in Apa Neagr, designating, according to Hellmann criterion, a warm month (W) in most part of the region, excepting the area Apa Neagr where there was a very warm month (VW), and the deviation of the general mean from the normal was 3.2C confirming the classification of warm month (W) for the entire region. The chart of the air temperature means variation (daily minimum temperatures mean, daily temperatures mean, daily maximum temperatures mean) highlights the intense cooling from the first decade of the month on 7 June, the thermal minimum values decreased in general below 10C, weather warming in the intervals 2-6 June, 8-11 June and the heat wave in the interval 16-23 June when the maximum thermal values often exceeded 35C. Precipitations regime in June 2012. The monthly precipitations values in June were comprised between 3.0 l/m2 in Oltenia Plain in Bileti and 119.2 l/m2 in Rm. Vlcea in Olt Couloir. Their deviations from the multiannual means were comprised between -95.5% in Bileti and 37.2% (the only positive deviation) in Rm. Vlcea. According to Hellmann criterion the month is exceedingly droughty (ED) in most part of the region excepting some restricted areas: Bechet where there was a normal month (N), Voineasa and Bcle where there was a droughty month (D) and Rm. Vlcea where there was a very rainy month (VR). The drought occurred beginning with 1 June, since the weather with quantitatively insignificant rains, associated with average temperatures and high daily maximum temperatures has started even from 28 May. The intensity of drought was maximum in Oltenia Plain where there were registered the lowest quantities of precipitations (Calafat 9.2 l/m2, Bileti 3.0 l/m2, Craiova 7.2 l/m2). In the water reserve in the end of June of the unirrigated corn crop, in the water supply on the soil depth of 0-50 cm, there were registered high deficits of humidity in soil, the pedological drought being moderate (MD) and severe (SD). Climatic aspects of July 2012. Air temperature regime in July 2012. The monthly maximum temperature were comprised between 35.3C in Voineasa and 41.6C in Calafat, and the monthly maximum temperature values mean for the entire region was 37.9C. The canicular days (Tmax35C) were registered in the entire region and their number ranged from 1 in Voineasa and 20 in Caracal and the average number of canicular days for the entire region was 13. In Oltenia Plain, the number of canicular days ranged between 16 and 20. The scorching heat days (Tmax32C) were registered in the entire region including in the submountainous area, and their 28

DROUGHT AND CANICULA IN THE AGRICULTURAL YEAR 2011-2012 IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF ROMANIA

number ranged from 10 in Voineasa and 29 in Caracal, and the average number of the scorching heat days for the entire region was 23. The monthly temperature means were comprised between 20.7C in Voineasa and 28.4C in Oltenia Plain in Bileti, and the general mean for the entire region was 25.6C, showing that July was the most warmish month of the summer of 2012. The monthly temperature means registered in July 2012 have been the highest means in the last 52 years for all the meteorological stations in Oltenia, and the general mean for the entire region of Oltenia was 25.6C showing that Oltenia have been one of the warmest areas in the country in July 2012. The monthly temperature mean for the entire country was 23.7C being the highest mean not only in the last 12 years, but even in the last 52 years. Regarding the northern hemisphere, we also notice that on the American continent July 2012 has been the warmest month in the USA since 1895 up to the present (according to BBC). The average temperature in the USA was 25.3C, breaking the previous record established in July 1936, when there was registered an extremely warmish weather and a severe drought desertifying extended areas and causing many dust storms, and thus an extended area was called the dust bowl. The drought associated with the excessive heat extended in all the American states in the centre and south of the country up to California North Dakota Texas. Many crops were badly damaged by the lack of water. The deviations of the monthly temperature means from the multiannual means were comprised between 3.6C in Voineasa and 5.7C in Apa Neagr, designating, according to Hellmann criterion, a warm month (C) in most part of the region, excepting the areas Bileti, Caracal, Drgani, Apa Neagr, Polovragi, Rm. Vlcea and Parng where it was very warm (VW), and the general mean deviation from the normal was 4.7C confirming the intensification of warm month (W) for the entire region. The chart of the air temperature means variation (daily minimum temperatures mean, daily temperatures mean, daily maximum temperatures mean) highlights weather cooling in the interval 16-20 July when, the thermal minimum values decreased in general below 15C, and in some hilly and submountainous areas below 10C, and weather warming in the intervals 3-5 July, 7-11 July, 14-16 July, 18-22 July, 24-26 July, 28-30 July when the thermal maximum values often exceeded 35C and 40C. Precipitations regime in July 2012. The monthly precipitations values registered in July 2012 were comprised between 13.2 l/m2 in Caracal in Romanailor Plain and 156.8 l/m2 in Apa Neagr in the Subcarpathian Depression. The deviations of these quantities from the multiannual mean were comprised between -60.2 l/m2 in Rm. Vlcea and +84.1 l/m2 in Apa Neagr, and the percentage deviation between -75.5% in Caracal and +115.7% in Apa Neagr, leading to the pluviometric time type classification from exceedingly droughty (ED) to exceedingly rainy (ER). The general mean of precipitations calculated for the entire region was 52.6 l/m2, and its percentage deviation from the normal was -19.1% leading to a 29

I. MARINIC, ANDREEA FLORIANA MARINIC

general classification for the entire region as a little droughty month (LD). This classification due to the general mean is not so significant since the drought was intense on extended areas in Oltenia Plain, in Getic Piedmont, in the hilly area (Drgani, Tg. Logreti, Polovragi, Rm. Vlcea, Voineasa) and on restricted areas, due to the local conditions and the penetration of some cloudy cells associated to some atmospheric fronts, which evolved in the north of Carpathians, July was exceedingly rainy (ER) (Dr. Tr. Severin, Bcle, Apa Neagr) or rainy (R) (Tg. Jiu). Water reserve in the end of July in the unirrigated corn crop registered low values (moderate pedological drought -MD) and extremely low (severe pedological drought -SD and extreme-ED) on almost entire agricultural territory of the country. Soil water supply was within almost satisfactory limits (AS) in most pat of the north-west of Oltenia. Climatic aspects of August 2012. Air temperature regime in August 2012. The monthly maximum temperature were comprised between 36.7C in Voineasa and 41.2C in Calafat and Bechet, and their mean for the entire region was 38.5C. The value of 41.2C registered in Calafat and Bechet is the absolute thermal maximum value of August for these meteorological stations constituting a climatic record for the entire region. Absolute thermal maximum values for those stations were also the values 40.8C in Dr. Tr. Severin, 40.7C in Rm. Vlcea, 40.5C in Bileti and Caracal, 39.6C in Sintina, 39.8C in Craiova, 38.7C in Drgani, 37.7C in Tg. Logreti, 36.7C in Voineasa, 36.5C in Plovragi, 28.0C in Parng in the mountainous area, which constitute a climatic record for these stations, being the highest temperatures in the last 52 years. The canicular days (Tmax35C) were registered in the entire region and their number ranged from 3 in Voineasa to 15 in Calafat, and their mean for the entire region was 10. The scorching heat days (Tmax32C) were registered in the entire region including in the submountainous area, and their number ranged from 9 in Voineasa and 23 in Calafat, and their mean was 16. The monthly average temperatures were comprised between 18.3C in Voineasa and 26.3C in Bileti, and their deviations from the monthly multiannual means calculated for the interval 1901-1990 were comprised between 1.7C in Tg. Logreti and 3.8C in Bileti, which according to Hellmann criterion leads to the thermal time type classification of warm month (W) in most of the region. Monthly air temperature mean, calculated for the entire region was 23.6C, and the deviation from the multiannual mean for the entire region was 3.1C, confirming the general classification of warm month (W). Compared to July, the monthly mean was lower in August, as a consequence of the long cooling intervals, and the maximum temperature of the summer of 2012 was registered in July, and in the entire country the thermal maximum value of the summer of 2012 was 42.4C in Giurgiu registered on 15 July 2012. 30

DROUGHT AND CANICULA IN THE AGRICULTURAL YEAR 2011-2012 IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF ROMANIA

The chart of the air temperature means variation (daily minimum temperatures mean, daily temperatures mean, daily maximum temperatures mean) highlights two heat waves in the intervals 4-9 August and 20-25 August and two weather cooling intervals: 10-16 August and 26-29 August. Pluviometric regime in August 2012. The monthly precipitations registered in August 2012 were comprised between 0.0 l/m2 in Calafat and 48.7 l/m2 in Bcle in Mehedini Hills. Their deviations from the multiannual means (calculated for the interval 1901-1990) were comprised between -100.0% in Calafat and -23.3% in Bileti, which according to Hellmann criterion leads to an exceedingly droughty month (ED) in most of the region, confirmed also by the general mean deviation from the normal. Drought occurred in the entire region, and its effects were extremely significant in August, as a consequence of the high precipitations deficit associated with canicular heat and scorching heat during long intervals of time. Water reserve in the end of August in the unirrigated corn crop, on the soil depth of 0-100 cm, registered low and extremely low values, the pedological drought being moderate (MD), severe (SD) and extreme (ED) on almost the entire agricultural territory of the country, in Oltenia the ED and SD was extended in the entire region, excepting the north-east of Vlcea county where there was a MD. General climatic aspects of the summer of 2012. Air temperature regime in the summer of 2012. The seasonal air temperature means were comprised between 19.1C in Voineasa in the submountainous area and 26.6C in Bileti in Oltenia Plain, and their deviations from the multiannual means were comprised between 2.9C in Voineasa and 5.0C in Apa Neagr, leading, according to Hellmann criterion to a classification of a very warmish summer (VW) in most of the region with a single exception in the area Apa Neagr where the summer was exceedingly warmish (EW). On the whole, the summer of 2012 was very warmish (VW), an aspect also confirmed by general mean deviation from the normal of 3.7C. The number of canicular days ranged from 4 in Voineasa to 36 in Calafat and Bechet, in Oltenia Plain where 25.6% of the summer days were canicular. The number of scorching heat days ranged from 21 in Voineasa in the submountainous area and 63 in Calafat and Bechet in Oltenia Plain where 68.5% were scorching heat days, showing the high duration and intensity of the thermal stress on crops. Pluviometric regime in the summer of 2012. The seasonal quantities of precipitations were comprised between 44.0 l/m2 in Caracal and 207.3 l/m2 in Apa Neagr, and their deviations from the multiannual means were comprised between73.7% in Caracal in Romanailor Plain and -10.6% in Apa Neagr, with a single exception in Bcle in Mehedini Hills where it was 28.1%, due to the local conditions which favoured some quantitatively significant showers on a very restricted area. This leads to a pluviometric time type classification from very 31

I. MARINIC, ANDREEA FLORIANA MARINIC

droughty (VD) to exceedingly droughty (ED) in most of the region (81.3% of the territory) in the summer of 2012. There is only one exception in Bcle where the summer was very rainy (VR), but on a restricted area. The intensity of drought was lower in areas Rm. Vlcea and Apa Neagr where the summer was droughty (D) and little droughty (LD) due to the local conditions. 3.5. Synoptic causes leading to this droughty summer. This exceedingly warmish and droughty summer was caused by the blocking circulation, which acted on most of the European continent. The blocking anticyclonic ridge stood with the upward part during all summer over most of Europe causing the advection of the warm and dry air from the north of Africa over the continent. The downward part of the ridge was generally located on the continent eastern extremity where the advection of the cool or cold and moist air from north and north-east caused abundant rains. This type of circulation also caused the predominance of the southern-western tropospheric stream over most of the continent which favoured its maintenance. Warm air advection towards north causes in the same time the advance of the warm ridges towards north, which would explain quite well the maintenance of the Azoric anticyclonic field over Europe during most of summer. We further state that it is well correlated with the persistence of the positive phase of the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+). The air temperature regime in the summer of 2012. The seasonal air temperature means were comprised between 19.1C in Voineasa in the submountainous area and 26.6C in Bileti in Oltenia Plain, and their deviations from the multiannual means were comprised between 2.9C in Voineasa and 5.0C in Apa Neagr, which leads, according to Hellmann criterion to a classification of a very warmish summer (VW) in most part of the region with one exception in Apa Neagr area where the summer was excessively warmish (EW). On the whole, the summer of 2012 was very warmish (VW), an aspect also confirmed by the deviation of the general mean from the normal value of 3.7C. The number of canicular days was comprised between 4 in Voineasa and 36 in Calafat and Bechet, in Oltenia Plain where 25.6% of the summer days were canicular. The number of canicular heat days was comprised between 21 in Voineasa in the submountainous area and 63 in Calafat and Bechet in Oltenia Plain where 68.5% were canicular heat days, which shows the high duration and intensity of the thermal stress on crops. 3.6 The annual precipitations regime during the agricultural year of 2011-2012. The annual precipitations sums registered in this agricultural year were comprised between 340.8 l/m2 in Caracal in Romanaiului Plain and 761.4 l/m2 in Apa Neagr in the subcarpathian depressions area, and the quantitative deviations 32

DROUGHT AND CANICULA IN THE AGRICULTURAL YEAR 2011-2012 IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF ROMANIA

from the multiannual means calculated for the interval 1901-1990 were comprised between -347.9 l/m2 in Voineasa in the submountainous area and -46.4 l/m2 in Craiova in the central part of Oltenia. The percentage deviation from the normal values were comprised between -44.9% in Voineasa and -8.7% in Craiova, which according to Hellmann criterion leads to a classification of an exceptionally droughty year in most part of the region excepting three restricted areas: Craiova where it was little droughty (LD) and Tg. Logreti and Rm. Vlcea where it was droughty (D) due to the local conditions that, in some situations, caused some abundant precipitations. The precipitations mean for the entire region was 519.8 l/m2 and its percentage deviation from the normal value1 was -23.4%, which confirms the classification of excessively droughty (ED) agricultural year. We conclude that on the whole the agricultural year 2011-2012 was an excessively droughty year (ED), and the excessive drought was mainly registered in two essential periods: in autumn with the result that it prevents agricultural works from being carried out and crops from being set up in the optimum time and during all summer, namely in the periods in which there is a maximum need of water. Drought was associated with high temperatures, sun glow and canicular heat during extended periods of time. 4. Conclusions On the whole of the agricultural year, 2011-2012 was an excessively droughty year (ED), and the excessive drought was mainly registered in two essential periods: in autumn with the result that it prevents agricultural works from being carried out and crops from being set up in the optimum time and during all summer, namely in the periods in which there is a maximum need of water. Drought was associated with high temperatures, sun glow and canicular heat during extended periods of time. The droughty pluviometric time type (DT)) predominated 63.5% of the year and the region area, the rainy time (RT) 38.6% of the year and the region area, and the normal time (NT) only 6.2%. During all year, the thermal stress have been intense not only in autumn, but also in summer and winter in the interval 25 January-15 February, the temperatures falling under the plants critical thresholds of resistance to frost. As a consequences of the excessive droughty the degree of crops damage was high in all the country and especially in the extracarpathian area, not only in Oltenia. The Romanian Government decided to help the countrymen and farmers by drafting GD 897/2012, consisting in awarding financial aids for the drought
1

The multiannual means for the interval of 90 years 1901-1990 are considered normal values.

33

I. MARINIC, ANDREEA FLORIANA MARINIC

destructive effects. The losses of wheat crop in the entire country were 600 thousands of tones les compared to the mean of the last years. The losses of sunflower crops were about 40-45% of production, and in what the oil content is concerned, the reduction was about 3-4%. The losses of vegetables-fruits were about 40%. The producers losses, because of the damages caused by the drought, were 2,5 billions of euros or more, and the aid to hectare given by the Ministry of Agriculture represented a recovery of only hundreds of millions of euros. All these led to the raise in prices of agricultural products and of the cost of living in general, especially given that there have been registered damages in the domain of electricity generation too (Hidroelectrica company registered losses of 253 million of euros or more), and the electricity consumption during summer was high mainly as a consequence of the use of air conditioning.
REFERENCES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Ion Marinic, Elena Mateescu, Victor Viorel Vtmanu (2011), Aspecte privind condiiile agroclimatice din primvara 2011 n Oltenia, Romanian Statistical Review, 2011/Tr.III, pp. 216-220, http://www.insse.ro. Ion Marinic, Elena Mateescu, Victor Viorel Vtmanu (2011), Cteva consideraii privind condiiile agroclimatice din vara 2011 n Oltenia, Romanian Statistical Review, 2011/Tr.III, pp. 135-139., http://www.insse.ro. 3 Marinic Ion (2006), Fenomene climatice de risc n Oltenia, Editura Autograf MJM, ISBN 973-87422-0-X (format A4, cod 6422300000087) CRAIOVA, 386 p. Ion Sandu, Elena Mateescu, Victor Viorel Vtmanu (2010), Schimbri climatice n Romnia i efectele asupra agriculturii, Edit. Sitech, Craiova, 408 p. Octavia Bogdan, Ion Marinic (2007), Hazarde meteo-climatice din zona temperat genez i vunerabilitate cu aplicaii la Romnia, Editura Universitii Lucian Blaga Sibiu, ISBN 978-973-739-465-1, 422 p.

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RISCURI I CATASTROFE, NR. XII, VOL. 12, NR. 1/2013

THE REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND THE CLIMATIC WATER DEFICIT IN THE WESTERN PLAIN OF ROMANIA, NORTH OF THE MURE RIVER
EUGENIA ERBAN 1
Abstract. The Reference Evapotranspiration and the Climatic Water Deficit in the Western Plain of Romania, North of the Mure River. In the present paper, reference evapotranspiration (ET0) was calculated by the method proposed by C.W. Thornthwaite. The climatic water deficit, as the difference between atmospheric precipitation and ET0, has also been calculated and analyzed. In this respect, monthly and annual air temperature and precipitation data from 10 weather stations were used. The analysis period was 1961-2002. The result was that the annual average reference evapotranspiration varies, throughout the Western Plain of Romania, North of the Mure River territory, between 665 and 700 mm. It decreases from south to north and also from west to east, depending on the territorial distribution of the air temperature. The plain territory reveals an annual climatic water deficit between 63 mm in the north of the plain and 171 mm in its south. Therefore, the predominantly agricultural territory of the plain needs a water surplus from irrigation. Only in the east of the plain, at Holod, there is a surplus of moisture. Key words: reference evapotranspiration, climatic water deficit, precipitation, air temperature.

1. Introduction
Evapotranspiration is a complex phenomenon, which represents the amount of water evaporated from the soil and eliminated by plants through perspiration. It is subject to several factors: atmospheric precipitation, soil water reserve, solar radiation, air and soil temperature, wind speed, depth of groundwater, type of vegetation etc. Knowing the amount of water coming from precipitation is not enough to characterize the climate of a region in terms of water requirements for plants. It is therefore important to know the reference evapotranspiration, which is the

University of Oradea, Faculty of Environmental Protection, 410048, Oradea, Romania, e-mail: eugeniaserban@yahoo.com

35

EUGENIA ERBAN

maximum amount of water that can pass into the atmosphere by evaporation from soil surface and plant perspiration (Donciu, 1958).

2. Data and Methods


In the present paper, reference evapotranspiration (ET0) was calculated by the method proposed by C.W. Thornthwaite in 1948, which takes into account the mean values of air temperature and the latitude of the weather stations. The ET0 calculation formula is (Frca, 1988): ET0 = 1.6 (10 t/I)a
-7 3 -5 2

(mm)

where a = 6.75 x 10 I 7.71 x 10 I + 17.92 x 10-3I + 0.49239 t = mean monthly air temperature I = annual heat index, obtained by summing the monthly thermic indices (i). i = (t/5)1,514 ET0 values have been adjusted according to the latitude of the weather stations (46-48 Northern latitude). The climatic water deficit (Pltineanu et al., 2007), as the difference between atmospheric precipitation and reference evapotranspiration, has also been calculated and analyzed in the present paper. To determine these climatic elements we used meteorological data regarding the mean monthly and annual air temperature and the monthly and annual precipitation amounts, from 10 weather stations located within the Western Plain of Romania, North of the Mure River, or in its proximity. The analysis period was 1961-2002. Some of the stations had shorter data series, because they were set up later or were dismantled early. Such were: Chiineu-Cri (1963-2002), Holod (1968-2002), Salonta (1983-1998), Ineu (1979-1997) and iria (1984-2002). All meteorological data used in this paper come from the National Meteorology Administration. 3. Results and Discussions The average annual reference evapotranspiration, on the Western Plain of Romania, North of the Mure River, ranges between 665-700 mm (Table 1). It decreases from south to north and also from west to east and its territorial distribution is similar to the air temperature, on which it depends directly. The maximum value is recorded in the south, at the station Snnicolau Mare (697.4 mm) and the minimum at the northern station Satu Mare (665.0 mm). The table shows that the average annual ET0 is higher at the station Salonta compared to the more southern station Chiineu-Cri. The reason is the short sequence of observation years for the first station that overlapped the last warm 36

THE REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND THE CLIMATIC WATER DEFICIT

years. Also at Scueni, the value is higher than at most of the stations located to its south. That is because of the low altitude of the station Scueni and its position in the narrow and stuffy sector of Ierului meadow, where air overheats during summer. As a result, the average multi-annual temperature is higher here than at the more southern stations and consequently so are the ET0 values.
Table 1. Annual reference evapotranspiration (mm) in the Western Plain of Romania, North of the Mure River (1961-2002).
Station

Satu Mare 665,0 724,3 618,9

Sc.

Orad.

Sal.

Holod

Chi Cr. 684,6 749,0 641,6

Ineu

iria

Arad

Snn. Mare

Mean Max. Min.

688,1 748,9 631,8

683,3 746,5 629,6

687,3 730,6 661,5

677,2 743,8 631,9

687,9 739,1 653,2

673,7 746,8 628,1

687,2 756,0 636,7

697,4 768,1 648,4

Over the years ET0 varied, as the air temperature varied. The maximum values reached 725-770 mm (Table 1). One will observe that they also drop towards north and also towards east. The highest value belongs to the station Snnicolau Mare (768.1 mm) and corresponds to the year 2000. In fact, for most of the stations the maximum ET0 value occurred in the warmest year, 2000. Only in Satu Mare it occurred in 2002, another excessively warm year. At the stations with a short observation period Salonta and Ineu which did not include the last years, the maximum ET0 occurred in 1994. That was also an excessively warm year. The minimum annual ET0 values ranged between 620-660 mm (Table 1). The lowest value was recorded, as expected, at the most northern station Satu Mare, where the air temperature values are also the lowest. The year when this value was recorded was 1980, the coldest year. At many stations the lowest value was recorded in 1978 a very cold year but also in 1980, and at two stations which had a short observation sequence iria and Salonta in 1984 and 1997. Through the year, ET0 has a course similar to the air temperature, with an increase from January to July, when it reaches a maximum, followed by a drop of the values until the winter months (Fig. 1-10). The minimum is recorded in January, when in many years evapotranspiration is missing and the values stay at 0 mm. Thus, throughout the plain, the values rise in July at 132-139 mm, higher at Snnicolau Mare and Salonta (because of the short sequence of observation years) and lower to the north and east of the plain. In June and August, ET0 comes to about 112-124 mm, in May about 91-98 mm, in September about 74-79 mm, in December 2-4 mm and in January 0.5-1.7 mm. 37

EUGENIA ERBAN

(mm) 150 120 90 60 30 0 I

Satu Mare

(mm) 150 120 90 60 30 0

Sacueni

F M A M

A S O N D ETo

F M A M

A S O N D ETo

Prec.

Prec.

(mm) 150 120 90 60 30 0 I

Oradea

(mm) 150 120 90 60 30 0

Salonta

F M A M

A S O N D ETo

F M A M

A S O N D ETo

Prec.

Prec. (mm) 150 120 90 60 30 0

(mm) 150 120 90 60 30 0 I

Holod

Chisineu-Cris

F M A M

A S O N D ETo
(mm) 150 120 90 60 30 0

F M A M

A S O N D ETo

Prec. (mm) 150 120 90 60 30 0 I F M A M I I

Prec.

Ineu

Siria

A S O N D ETo

F M A M

A S O N D ETo

Prec.

Prec.

Fig. 1-8. Average monthly reference evapotranspiration compared to average monthly precipitation amounts, in the Western Plain of Romania, North of the Mure River (1961-2002).

38

THE REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND THE CLIMATIC WATER DEFICIT

(mm) 150 120 90 60 30 0 I

Arad

(mm) 150 120 90 60 30 0

Sannicolau Mare

F M A M

A S O N D ETo

F M A M

A S O N D ETo

Prec.

Prec.

Fig. 9-10. Average monthly reference evapotranspiration compared to average monthly precipitation amounts, in the Western Plain of Romania, North of the Mure River (1961-2002).

As specified above, in many years in January ET0 may be absent, as very low air and soil temperatures do not allow water evaporation. ET0 was also absent in many years in December and February. In some years it was absent even in November and March. The ET0 maximum monthly values rose up to 153.4-161.9 mm and occurred either in August, when clear weather prevails and soil surface warms up strongly due to solar radiation, or in July, the hottest month of the year.

160 ET measured (mm) 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 50 100 ETo Th (mm) 150 Linear (ET measured) y = 0,9162x + 17,547 R 2 = 0,9375 R = 0,968236 ET measured

Fig. 11. Correlation between the calculated reference evapotranspiration (Thornthwaite method) and the measured evapotranspiration (Bac evaporimeter method), for the period April-September, in Oradea (1976-2001).

Figure 11 shows the correlation between the reference evapotranspiration calculated by Thornthwaite method and evapotranspiration measured by the Bac evaporimeter method (Domua, 2005), in the interval 1976-2001 and throughout the vegetation period, April-September, in Oradea. Evapotranspiration has been measured by the author at the Oradea Agrozootechnical Research Station, which is 39

EUGENIA ERBAN

placed in the vicinity of the Oradea weather station, in the same climatic conditions. The Simple Correlation Coefficient (Bravais-Pearson) calculated (r = 0.9682) shows that there is a very good correlation between the two rates. The values of the measured evapotranspiration are slightly higher than of the calculated ET0. On the analyzed territory, the ET0 annual average values exceed those of precipitation by about 63 mm in the north of the plain and 171 mm in its south, at the station Snnicolau Mare (Table 2). In the mountain sector (iria), the difference is of only 37 mm as precipitations are richer. The fact shows the deficient character of precipitation throughout the Western Plain of Romania, North of the Mure River and this deficit is called the climatic water deficit (Pltineanu et al., 2007). Only in the east, at Holod, there is a surplus of moisture. ET0 does not exceed the multi-annual precipitation amount here.
Table 2. Annual climatic water deficit (mm) in the Western Plain of Romania, North of the Mure River (1961-2002).
Station Average Maximum/ Year Station Average Maximum/ Year Satu Mare -63,2 -309,6 1961 Chiin.Cri -116,7 -451,3 2000 Scueni -113,0 -357,4 2000 Ineu -70,2 -269,9 1994 Oradea -68,6 -382,3 2000 iria -37,0 -370,4 2000 Salonta -146,4 -312,6 1992 Arad -107,0 -504,0 2000 Holod +17,7 -366,2 2000 Snnic.Mare -171,3 -500,4 2000

Therefore, the predominantly agricultural territory of the plain needs a water surplus from irrigation, necessary for the purpose of a proper biological cycle of the crop plants. However this surplus is not necessary on clay substrate land, affected by moisture excess or where the groundwater is near surface. The highest values of the annual average deficit occur in the south of the plain, where temperatures are higher and precipitation lower as a result of the Mediterranean influence. High values also occur in the low, alluvial plains (110145 mm), where the air overheats in summer and there are fewer rains because of low altitude (Chiineu-Cri, Salonta, Scueni). The eastern stations, which generally get the highest precipitation amounts, have lower values of the annual average deficit (35-70 mm). Therefore, it appears that within the Western Plain of Romania, North of the Mure River, the climatic water deficit decreases from the south to the north and also from the west to the east, as the air temperature values drop and precipitation amounts rise. The most arid area is Aranci Plain.

40

THE REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND THE CLIMATIC WATER DEFICIT

Over the years, the climatic water deficit has varied widely at the weather stations (Fig. 12-14 and Table 2). Its highest values have risen at 300-500 mm (less at Ineu: 270 mm). They occurred in 2000, the driest year and only in north, at Satu Mare, in 1961 (the second driest year of the analyzed period). In the lower Someului Plain, the drought of the year 2000 was not as intense as in the rest of the territory (the deficit reached 182 mm at Satu Mare). At the stations with short observation sequences, the maximum values were recorded in the years 1992 or 1994, two hot and dry years.

Fig. 12. Annual climatic water deficit in the Western Plain of Romania, North of the Mure River (1961-2002).

Fig. 13. Annual climatic water deficit in the Western Plain of Romania, North of the Mure River (1961-2002).

The charts show the great drought of the year 2000 and also that of the year 1961, as well as the long period with deficit 1982-1995. In fact, most of the years within the period 1961-2002 were with deficit, at all weather stations. There were very few years with surplus, when annual precipitation amounts exceeded the ET0: 41

EUGENIA ERBAN

1 year at Snnicolau Mare and Salonta, 5-8 years at the stations in Aradului, Criului Alb and Ierului Plains, 10-12 years at iria, Oradea and Satu Mare, 19 years at Holod. As already mentioned, Holod is the only station that records water surplus, hence the highest number of years without deficit.

Fig. 14. Annual climatic water deficit in the Western Plain of Romania, North of the Mure River (1968-2002).

The maximum annual water surplus recorded at the weather stations had much lower values than the annual maximum deficit. Thus, compared to the values of 270-504 mm of the maximum deficit, the maximum surplus was of only 100245 mm at most stations, dropping to values of 63.1 mm at Snnicolau Mare and only 5.1 mm at Salonta. The highest surplus was recorded at Holod (243.7 mm) in the colder year of 1980. The years with a surplus were: 1965-1966, 1969-1970, 1974, 1980-1981, 1996-1999, 2001, which were either rainy or cooler years, when ET0 was low. The number of years with a high climatic water deficit over 200 mm is very high, but it decreases a lot from the south of the plain (18 years at Snnicolau Mare), to its north (3 years at Satu Mare) and east (2 years at Ineu and Holod). A great number of years with a deficit of over 200 mm is recorded at Chiineu-Cri and Scueni (12 years), but also at Arad (9 years) and Oradea (7 years). There are records of even greater deficit, over 300 mm: only 1 year for most of the stations, but the number is higher at Snnicolau Mare (4 years), Scueni (4 years) and Arad (3 years). Years with a deficit over 300 mm are missing only in Ineu, because of the short observation period. Consequently, on the territory of the Western Plain of Romania, North of the Mure River, the climatic water deficit has higher values than the water surplus. A comparison between the ET0 average monthly values and the average monthly precipitation values shows that ET0 exceeds the precipitation amounts 42

THE REFERENCE EVAPOTRANSPIRATION AND THE CLIMATIC WATER DEFICIT

within the interval April-October, which corresponds exactly to plants vegetation period (Fig. 1-10). In the north, at Satu Mare, the monthly climatic deficit occurs within the interval April-September and in the east, at Holod, Ineu and iria in May-September (possibly May-October). So, the annual interval of recording the climatic water deficit is shorter in the northern and eastern areas of the analyzed territory. The interval April-October sums up an average climatic water deficit of 170-300 mm. It is higher at the southern stations Snnicolau Mare (304.0 mm) and Arad (247.1 mm), and also at the stations located on alluvial plains ChiineuCri, Salonta, Scueni where it sums up to 257-273 mm. In the north the total deficit drops to 220 mm, and eastwards to 170-193 mm (Holod and iria). The deficit reaches its maximum in July (60-80 mm) and August (55-75 mm) when the anticyclone baric regime prevails, with stable air masses and clear weather and the minimum at the beginning and the end of plants vegetation period. The months within the interval November-March present a climatic water surplus, when the ET0 is less than the amount of precipitation. In these months the surplus totals, on average, about 130-190 mm, lower to the south of the plain and higher to its north and east. Its total values are lower than the total values of the climatic deficit. The surplus has its peak in December (45-50 mm), when there is the secondary pluviometric maximum and air moisture and nebulosity maximum. Conclusions The annual average reference evapotranspiration (ET0) calculated by Thornthwaite method varies, throughout the Western Plain of Romania, North of the Mure River territory, between 665 and 700 mm. It decreases from south to north and also from west to east, depending on the territorial distribution of the air temperature. The simple correlation coefficient (Bravais-Pearson) calculated between the calculated reference evapotranspiration and measured evapotranspiration, during the vegetation period April-September, shows that there is a very good correlation between them. The values of the measured evapotranspiration are slightly higher than of the calculated ET0. The plain territory reveals an annual climatic water deficit between 63 mm in the north of the plain and 171 mm in its south. Only in the east of the plain, at Holod, there is a surplus of moisture. The most arid area is Aranci Plain. Because of the great number of years with climatic water deficit recorded on the plain territory, its high values and mostly because its overlapping the plants vegetation period, the use of irrigation in agriculture is required. However they are not necessary on clay substrate lands, affected by an excessive humidity or where groundwater is near surface. 43

EUGENIA ERBAN

REFERENCES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Domua, C. (2005), Irigarea culturilor, Edit. Univ. din Oradea, Oradea, 347 p. Donciu, C. (1958), Evapotranspiraia n R.P.R., Rev. Meteorol., hidrol. i gospodrirea apelor, nr.1, Bucureti, p.23-32. Donciu, C. (1983), Evapotranspiraia i bilanul apei din sol n Romnia, Memoriile Seciilor tiin., Seria IV, tom VI, nr.2, Edit. Academiei R.S.R., Bucureti, p.107-129 Frca, I. (1988), Msurtori i calcule de meteorologie. Partea a II-a: Metodologia prelucrrii i interpretrii datelor climatice, Univ. Babe-Bolyai Cluj-Napoca, 200 p. Pltineanu, C., Mihilescu, I.Fl., Seceleanu, I. (2000), Dobrogea condiiile pedoclimatice, consumul i necesarul apei de irigaie pentru principalele culturi agricole, Edit. Ex Ponto, Constana, 319 p. Pltineanu, C., Mihilescu, I.Fl., Seceleanu, I., Dragot, Carmen, Vasenciuc, Felicia (2007), Ariditatea, seceta, evapotranspiraia i cerinele de ap ale culturilor agricole n Romnia, Edit. Ovidius University Press, Constana, 319 p. erban, Eugenia (2002), Reference evapotranspiration and its use to estimate water balance regime in the Transylvania Plain, International Conference on Drought Mitigation and Prevention of Land Desertification, ICID, Bled, Slovenia, April 21-25, 2002, published on-line, http://www.wg-crop.icidonline.org/26doc.pdf, 9 p. erban, Eugenia (2010), Hazarde climatice generate de precipitaii n Cmpia de Vest situat la nord de Mure, Edit. Universitii din Oradea, Oradea, 395 p. * * * (2008), Clima Romniei, A.N.M., Edit. Academiei Romne, Bucureti, 365 p.

8. 9.

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ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT PHENOMENON WITHIN OLTENIA PLAIN, ROMANIA (1961-2010)


ALINA VLDU1, IRINA ONEL2, CRISTINA ROCA3, ALINA CHIVU4
Abstract. - Analysis of drought phenomenon within Oltenia Plain, Romania (1961-2010). Oltenia Plain, located in the south-western part of the Romanian Plain, is characterized by a moderate pluviometric regime (compared to the pluviometric patterns of plain areas from Romania) and, thus, each negative deviation generates certain complex phenomena, such as drought, that trigger perturbations of the natural environment and economic activities. Thus, determining the annual, seasonal and monthly negative deviations of precipitation at local scale is extremely important in order to establish accurate trends of drought phenomenon. We used 50-year time series (1961-2010) for six meteorological stations. The Standardized Precipitation Anomaly (SPA) and Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation (WASP) indicate a high predominance of normal years (>70%), both at annual and monthly levels. However, there clearly resulted a deterioration of the rainfall regime in the past three decades normal years, but negative deviations in 80% of the cases; the driest years in the last five decades (1992, 1993, 2000, 2008); the wettest years (1999 and 2005). Linear regression emphasizes an obvious negative trend of the SPA values for the western and eastern parts of the plain (D.T. Severin, Caracal) and a positive trend for the northern extremity (Craiova); the rest of the region displays a slightly negative trend. At monthly level, the most exposed season is summer, even if drought affected the region in all the months of the year. For the last decade, the impact of drought was also assessed based on satellite images SPOTVEGETATION and TERRA/MODIS. We used the products NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), 10-day synthesis and 1 km spatial resolution and LAI (Leaf Area Index) 8-day synthesis, 1 km spatial resolution, data supplied by French Spatial Agency and NASA. The analysis of these products allowed us to emphasize a spatial and temporal differentiation of the density of vegetation within Oltenia, mainly induced by rainfall deficit and variability.
Key words: drought, SPA, NDVI, LAI, Oltenia Plain.

University of Craiova, Geography Department, e-mail: vladut_alina2005@yahoo.com University of Bucharest, Master student: Climatology and Hydrology; e-mail: ontel.irina@yahoo.com 3 Babe-Bolyai University, Master student: Resources and risks in hydro-atmospheric environment; e-mail: cristina_rosca88@yahoo.com 4 University of Craiova, Master student: Geographical Environment. Capitalization and protection of natural resources; e-mail: alinapetruta_chivu@yahoo.com
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ALINA VLDU, IRINA ONEL, CRISTINA ROCA, ALINA CHIVU

1. Introduction
Its destructive impact makes drought be classified as one of the most problematic climatic risk phenomena all over the world. It is a recurring phenomenon displaying heterogeneous spatial and temporal features that vary significantly from one region to another (Tallaksen & van Lanen, 2004). There are four types of drought meteorological, hydrological, agricultural and socioeconomic drought (Fig. 2). According to Wilhite and Glantz (1985), the first three approaches refer to drought as a physical phenomenon, while the last one deals with drought in terms of supply and demand, underlining the effects of water shortfall on the socio-economic systems. Oltenia Plain is located in the south-western part of Romania and it is limited by the Getic Piedmont in the north, by the Danube River in the south and west and by the Olt River in the east (Fig.1). Called by Nicolae Topor one of drought centres (1964) and by Ion Marinic drought epicentre (2006), the studied area is one of the most exposed to this climatic risk phenomenon regions in the country. Drought-induced problems are quite significant within Oltenia Plain as most of the population lives in the rural area where the main economic sector is represented by agriculture. Thus, usually, meteorological drought is accompanied by hydrological and agricultural drought, which first triggers food and economic insecurity, and then poverty. A poor production does not affect only rural population, but also urban population, which is forced to buy more expensive imported agricultural products. Using the precipitations amounts as main meteorological element, we aimed at relating the obtained values of the SPA and WSPA to the normalized difference indexes NDVI and LAI, which emphasize the effects induced by rainfall deficit.

2. Methods and data


Standardized Precipitation Anomaly (SPA) is a mathematical method based on the precipitation amounts; it illustrates the pluviometric features of each year rendered in Table 1. It represents the difference between the precipitation amount from a specific period and the average multiannual amount for the respective period reported to the standard deviation. By weighting the SPA with the fraction of the month, resulted by dividing the monthly average to the yearly average (Croitoru, 2006), we obtained the values of the WSPA corresponding to each month. These methods are widely used both at national and international level. Droughts effects are quite obvious mainly on vegetation cover. One of the monitoring methods is represented by remote sensing. Satellite products such as NDVI and LAI enable the analysis of the density and health state of the vegetation cover. 46

ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT PHENOMENON WITHIN OLTENIA PLAIN, ROMANIA (1961-2010)

Fig. 1 Location of Oltenia Plain within Romania

Fig. 2 Drought Impact (Source: National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska, USA)

The Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is computed as: NDVI = (bNIR - bRED) / (bNIR + bRED) where bRED and bNIR are the red and near IR reflectances. This formula is based on the fact that chlorophyll absorbs in the red part of the spectrum whereas the mesophyll leaf structure scatters NIR radiation. NDVI values ranges from -1 to +1, where negative values correspond to an absence of vegetation e.g. water surfaces, clouds (Myneni et al., 1995). 47

ALINA VLDU, IRINA ONEL, CRISTINA ROCA, ALINA CHIVU

Table 1- Features of the years according to the SPA


SPA Values > 2.5 2 and 2.5 1.5 and 2 1 and 1.5 1 and -1 -1 and -1.5 -1.5 and -2.0 -2.0 and -2.5 < -2.5 Source: Gaceu, 2002 Category Extremely Wet Very Wet Wet Moderately Wet Near Normal Moderately Dry Dry Severely Dry Extremely Dry Risk category Risk by excess Free by risk Risk by deficiency

Leaf Area Index (LAI) measures the amount of plant leaf material in an ecosystem. It is typically expressed as a non-dimensional value giving the number of square meters of leaf material per square meter of ground. This variable plays important roles in models that represent processes, such as photosynthesis, respiration and rain interception, which couple vegetation to the climate system through radiation, carbon and water cycles. Hence, LAI appears as a key variable in many models describing vegetation-atmosphere interactions (Haboudane et al., 2004). The data used in the present paper are represented by the precipitation amounts registered at six meteorological stations located within Oltenia Plain, belonging to the National Network of the National Meteorological Administration (Caracal, Bechet, Bileti, Calafat, Drobeta-Turnu Severin and Craiova), for 50 years (1961-2010). The analysis of drought effects within this geographical area we used some satellite products: NDVI 10-day synthesis and 1 km spatial resolution, obtained from Spot Vegetation images and LAI 8-day synthesis and 1 km spatial resolution, obtained from MODIS images.

3. Results and discussions


3.1. Distribution of the multiannual precipitation amounts The mean annual precipitations amount reaches 573 l/m2 within Oltenia Plain, varying from one meteorological station to another according to their position relative to predominant air masses and relief altitude. Thus, the highest precipitation amount of 674.2 l/m2 is registered at Drobeta-Turnu Severin, a station located in the north-west of Oltenia Plain (Fig. 3). The minimum amount is noticed in the southern extremity of the plain, at Bechet, 521.6 mm. Between these extremes, there are not obvious differences, especially in the central and eastern sectors of the plain - Caracal 557.1 mm, Calafat 531.9 mm and 559.7 mm at Bilesti, taking into account the relatively homogenous altitudes and air mass exposure. 48

ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT PHENOMENON WITHIN OLTENIA PLAIN, ROMANIA (1961-2010)

Fig. 3 Distribution of multiannual precipitations amounts 3.1. Standardized Precipitation Anomaly (SPA)

According to the values of the SPA, during the period 1961-2010, there were registered wet years in the first and last part of the analysed interval, while deficit represented the main feature of the middle part of the interval at all six meteorological stations. Thus, we remarked the years 1983, 1985, 1992, 1993, 2000 as dry and very dry and the years 1969, 1979, 1999 and 2005 as rainy and very rainy. Normal years predominated reaching more than 65% at all the stations. Even if the analysed region does not cover a large surface compared to the territory of the country, there were emphasized a series of differences on northsouth and west-east directions; the highest values of the SPA correspond to the northern and western parts of the plain, while the lowest are registered along the Danube Valley and in the central part of the plain. Thus, at Craiova, which is located in the northern part, most of the years display higher values than in the south, at Bechet (Fig. 4). In order to emphasize drought phenomenon we chose several years for comparison 1983, when the annual value of the SPA was -1.90 at Bechet and -1.43 at Craiova; 1985 the same differentiation and the rest of the years were normal. In 1992, at Craiova, drought is emphasized by a greater value of the SPA, namely -2.30 (severely dry) compared to Bechet with -1.09 (moderately dry). In 2000, both stations display extremely low values, this year being severely or extremely dry within the entire plain. Starting with 2001, most of the years present positive deviations normal years, except for 2005, when the SPA reached 3.68 at Craiova and 2.73 at Bechet. From west to east, namely form Drobeta-Turnu Severin to Caracal, it was noticed that drought is more severe in the eastern sector of the plain due to the increased influence of the dry continental air masses compared to the west, where 49

ALINA VLDU, IRINA ONEL, CRISTINA ROCA, ALINA CHIVU

the penetration of tropical air masses is more frequent (Fig.5). Consequently, in certain years there occurred greater differences compared to the north-south direction. Thus, we remark the year 1999, which was very wet in the west (SPA: 2.07) due to some extremely heavy rainfalls registered in the summer months (mainly July 331.4 mm, almost six times the normal amount of the month) and normal in the east (SPA: -0.04). However, in 2005, the SPA registered almost a double value at Caracal compared to D.T. Severin (2.69 in the east, which is extremely wet and 1.17 in the west, which is just wet).

Fig. 4 Standardized Precipitation Anomaly at Fig. 5 Standardized Precipitation Anomaly the stations Craiova and Bechet (1961-2010) at the stations D.T. Severin and Caracal (1961-2010)

On the whole, we remarked deficit increases from north to south (from 12% to 16%) and from west to east (from 10% to 16%), due to the more frequent and intense influence of dry continental air masses (Fig. 6). Normal domain covers the largest rate at all the six stations. The highest value was registered at Craiova, 78%, followed by D.T. Severin, 72%. In the north and west of the plain the precipitation amounts are generally higher, but, however, not sufficient to ensure a greater percentage of wet years, as only 18% at Severin, respectively 10% at Craiova of the 50 analysed years were surplus years. The rate of deficit years was higher at Craiova compared to Severin, as Mediterranean air masses contributes to the diminution of drought phenomenon and a certain moderation of climatic extremes in the area. At Craiova we have an oscillatory regime, there is a cyclicity of the rainy years and the dry years, the share is 12% and 10% drought years and rainy years, while the percentage of Caracal station and Bechet is equal, the dry years with the rainy years, 16%. Some oscillatory regime is recorded from west to east.

50

ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT PHENOMENON WITHIN OLTENIA PLAIN, ROMANIA (1961-2010)

Fig.6 Rate of pluviometric domains according to SPA within Oltenia Plain (1961-2010) 3.2. Weighted Standardized Precipitation Anomaly (WSPA) compared with satellite products NDVI and LAI

If the analysis of the SPA values enabled us to emphasize drought at annual level, the WSPA helped us identify the months that contribute most to drought. The monthly values of WSPA indicated that May, June, and July display the highest drought risk (Fig.7). Rainfall deficit registered in these months is quite problematic as, usually, precipitation lack is associated with increased temperatures which affect crops. In the last decade of the analysed period, according to the values of the WSPA at monthly level, we remarked the years 2000 and 2008 as deficit years. 2000 was very dry at all the stations during all the 12 months, but the lowest values were registered in June and July. In June, the values of the WSPA oscillated between -3.41 at Bileti and 2.17 at Severin; also at the rest of the stations the values were very low: -3.20 at Calafat, -3.18 at Caracal, -2.95 at Bechet and 2.87 at Craiova. The impact rainfall deficit had upon the cultivated and natural vegetation within Oltenia Plain can be noticed in the satellite images SPOT VEGETATION and MODIS, through the achievement of NDVI and LAI products. 51

ALINA VLDU, IRINA ONEL, CRISTINA ROCA, ALINA CHIVU

a) Drobeta Turnul Severin

b) Craiova

c) Caracal

d) Bechet

f) Calafat e) Bailesti Fig.7 Rate of pluviometric domains at monthly level according to WSPA within Oltenia Plain (1961-2010)

In the east of Oltenia Plain, in the third decade, the values of the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), varied between 0.2 and 0.3, which indicate rare vegetation, while in the west, the values were a little higher, varying between 0.3 and 0.4 (Fig. 8). Reduced values were also registered by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which however displayed a random distribution within the analysed surface. Thus, in the east of Oltenia Plain, its values oscillated between 0.3 and 0.8, while in the west between 0.5 and 1.2 (Fig. 9). 52

ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT PHENOMENON WITHIN OLTENIA PLAIN, ROMANIA (1961-2010)

Fig.8 Spatial distribution of vegetation index Fig.9 Spatial distribution of leaf area index (LAI), June 17-24, 2000 (NDVI), June 21-30, 2000

Fig.10 Spatial distribution of vegetation index (NDVI), June 21-30, 2008

Fig.11 Spatial distribution of leaf area index (LAI), June 17-24, 2008

Fig.12 Spatial distribution of vegetation index Fig.13 Spatial distribution of leaf area index (LAI), June 17-24, 2004 (NDVI), June 21-30, 2004

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ALINA VLDU, IRINA ONEL, CRISTINA ROCA, ALINA CHIVU

Fig.14 Spatial distribution of vegetation index Fig.15 Spatial distribution of leaf area index (LAI), July 19-26, 2000 (NDVI), July 21-31, 2000

Fig.16 Spatial distribution of vegetation index Fig.17 Spatial distribution of leaf area index (LAI), July 19-26, 2008 (NDVI), July 21-31, 2008

In June 2008, the values of the WSPA varied between -1.30 at Caracal and 0.05 at Calafat. Reduced values were also registered at Craiova (-1.25) and Bechet (-1.19). The intensity decrease of drought phenomenon compared to 2000 is also illustrated by the satellite products NDVI and LAI. In 2008, the values of the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index were comprised between 0.3 and 0.4 in the central-eastern part and between 0.4 and 0.6 in the western half of the plain (Fig.10). The same spatial distribution appears in case of Leaf Area Index, namely between 0.5 and 0.8 in the central-eastern part, 0.8 and 1.2 in the south-east and 1.2 and 2.1 in the western half (Fig.11). In order to better render the rainfall deficit registered in 2000 and 2008, we also analysed 2004, considered a normal year according to both the values of WSPA and NDVI and LAI. In June, the values of WSPA at the meteorological stations from Oltenia Plain oscillated between -1.05 at Calafat and 0.22 at Severin, at the rest of the stations the values being quite close to 0 (0.06 at Craiova, 0.04 at Bechet, 0.16 at Bileti and -0.27 at Caracal). Compared to 2000 and 2008, in 54

ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT PHENOMENON WITHIN OLTENIA PLAIN, ROMANIA (1961-2010)

2004, the values of NDVI during the third decade of June exceeded 0.5 within most of the plain (Fig.12). LAI registered values above 0.8 within most of the plain, except for some small areas located in the eastern part, where it varied between 0.5 and 0.8 (Fig.13). In July 2000, the values of the WSPA were even more reduced than in June (-2.92 at Caracal, -2.64 at Bechet, -2.51 at Craiova, -2.75 at Calafat, -2.93 at Bileti and -2.85 at Severin), illustrating the severity of drought. However, the negative impact upon vegetation got more acute in the eastern part of Oltenia Plain. The values of NDVI were 0.2 and 0.3 in the east and 0.4 and 0.5 in the west (Fig.14). LAI also registered lower values compared to June, emphasizing the same trend, namely higher severity of drought in the eastern part of the plain, between 0.3 and 0.8 (Fig.15). In 2008, the values of the WSPA varied between -1.19 at Caracal and 0.05 at Calafat. The decrease of the precipitations amounts from west to east is also emphasized by the values of NDVI (Fig.16) and LAI (Fig.17), which follow the same decrease tendency as those of the WSPA.

4. Conclusions
In the last 50 years, precipitation amounts displayed heterogeneous values within Oltenia Plain; it represents one of the meteorological parameters which is highly dependent on air masses circulation at the level of the European continent, thus explaining the great temporal and spatial differences. Drought is firstly related to the lack or insufficiency of precipitation within a certain region, which then can evolve and affect river network (reduced flows), vegetation (soil moisture deficit), and, implicitly, populations livelihood and welfare, in other words when the demand for economic good exceeds supply as a result of a weather-related shortfall in water supply (National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, U.S.A.). According to the values of the SPA the territory of Oltenia Plain is mainly characterized by a normal pluviometric regime, as normal years present higher rates than 65%. However, there was emphasized a certain periodicity of wet and dry periods precipitation surplus in the first two decades, deficit in the next two, and then again surplus in the last decade. The most severe drought periods were registered in the period 1980-2000, the maximum being reached in 2000, which is by far the driest year in the last 50. At monthly level, the highest risk of drought occurrence is registered by the end of spring beginning of summer, in May, June, and July, which also coincides with the critical vegetation period for most of the crops. Thus, the decrease of precipitation amounts and water shortage affects the density and health state of vegetation, both natural and cultivated, situation strengthened by the analysis of satellite images and associated products NDVI and LAI. 55

ALINA VLDU, IRINA ONEL, CRISTINA ROCA, ALINA CHIVU

5. Acknowledgements This work was supported by the strategic grant POSDRU/89/1.5/S/61968, Project ID61968 (2009), co-financed by the European Social Fund within the Sectorial Operational Program Human Resources Development 2007 2013.
REFERENCES 1. 2. 3. Croitoru, Adina-Eliza, (2006), Excesul de precipitaii din Depresiunea Transilvaniei, Editura Casa Crii de tiin, Cluj-Napoca Gaceu, O., (2002), Elemente de climatologie practic, Editura Universitii din Oradea, Oradea Haboudane D., Miller, J.R., Pattey, E., Zarco-Tejada, P.J. andStrachan, I., (2004), Hyperspectral vegetation indices and novel algorithms for predicting green LAI of crop canopies: modeling and validation in the context of precision agriculture. Remote Sens. Environ., 90, 337-352 Mrinic, I., (2006), Fenomene climatice de risc n Oltenia, Editura MJM, Craiova Myneni, R.B., Hall, F.G., Sallers, P.J. and Marshak, A.L., (1995), The interpretation of spectral vegetation indexes. IEEE Trans. Geosci. Rem. Sens. 33, 481-486 Tallaksen, L. M., Lanen, H. A. J. van (2004) (Eds) Hydrological Drought Processes and Estimation Methods for Streamflow and Groundwater. Developments in Water Sciences 48, Elsevier Science BV, The Netherlands. Topor N. (1964), Ani ploiosi si ani secetosi in R.P.R., I.M., Bucuresti Vladu, Alina (2006-2008), Excess and deficit of precipitation in Oltenia illustrated by Standardised Precipitation Anomaly (SPA), Studii i Cercetri de Geografie, Tom LIIILV, Editura Academiei Romne, pag. 243-250 Wilhite, D.A., Glantz, M.H. (1985), Understanding the Drought Phenomenon: The Role of Definitions. Water International 10(3):111120 ***(2005), Geografia Romniei, V, Cmpia Romn, Dunrea, Podiul Dobrogei, Litoralul Romnesc al Mrii Negre i Platforma continental, Editura Academiei Romne, Bucureti *** (2008), Clima Romniei, Editura Academiei Romne, Bucureti http://www.daac.ornl.gov/MODIS/ http://www.free.vgt.vito.be/

4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13.

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RISCURI I CATASTROFE, NR. XII, VOL. 12, NR. 1/2013

CHARACTERISTICS OF ARIDITY CONDITIONS IN SOUTH DOBRUDJA


A.TISCOVSCHI, GABRIELA MANEA, O.COCOS, IULIANA VIJULIE, ROXANA CUCULICI
Abstract. - Characteristics of Aridity Conditions in South Dobrudja. For most people, the arid and semi-arid lands are those where precipitation is low (less than 200 mm per year), and yet enough for supplying streams capable of temporarily carrying the debris resulted from weathering, but insufficient for encouraging the development of a vegetal cover meant to protect the soil blanket against eroding agents. The drought is a major and permanent climatic risk for the Dobrudja territory as a whole and for South Dobrudja in particular, a territory where hydrographic network is underdeveloped, streams are ephemeral, and semi-endorheic areas are well developed. When the period of moisture deficiency lasts longer, it can bring about a significant water imbalance, which results in crop losses or restrictions in water consumption, thus leading to a number of economic problems. Under the circumstances, the risk of aridity expansion is significant, this being the reason why a better water management system in Romania is urgently needed. In the last decades, the numerous specialty studies undertaken in the area have emphasized an intensification of the process of dryness, because atmospheric and pedological droughts have become more and more serious. Romania is a member of the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). It actively participates within the drought management network and the Drought Management Center for Southeastern Europe, which comprises 11 countries. The scope is to work together and exchange experience with the neighboring countries that have recorded positive results and acquired a rich experience in terms of drought management. The employment of appropriate pluvial indices in identifying the areas prone to aridity may prove to be convenient tool for finding practical solutions meant to mitigate the impact of this phenomenon on the local communities living in South Dobrudja. Key - words: aridity, pluvial indices, Dobrudja, mean precipitation, climate change

1. Introduction
This study aims at highlighting the frequency of aridity phenomena, since they are deemed to be a major permanent risk for South Dobrudja territory, which

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is a plateau area, with elevations exceeding 200 m, unfolding between the Danube valley (on the west) and the Black Sea (on the east). Here, water resources are dwindling and their quality is continuously decreasing, and this is a serious hindering factor not only for the Dobrudja territory, but also for many other regions of Romania, as is the case for instance of the Calnistea watershed (Cocos et al., 2011). The situation gets worse in other parts of the planet as well, while a number of recent studies estimate a further increase of the aridity conditions as a result of global warming effect. Thus, in order to assess the situation of South Dobrudja, we based our analysis on three representative weather stations (Constanta, Medgidia and Harsova) (fig. 1), having datasets for the period 1961-2000, which is considered a reference frame by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). By looking at the long-term variations of the atmospheric precipitation in Romania, one may observe that the last decades have experienced a drop in the precipitation amount, which however remains within the limits of natural variability (Ciulache et al., 2003). In the study area, the average monthly precipitation is unevenly distributed from month to month. This is due to the frequency and direction of the pressure cells, air masses and weather fronts, but also to the amplitude of the local climatic processes, which either encourage or hinder the formation of precipitation (Mihailescu et al., 2000). The incessant changes occurring from year to year in terms of the frequency and features of the air masses driven, on the one hand, by the prevailing winds and, on the other hand, by the mobile cyclones and anticyclones, bring about significant variations of the yearly amounts of precipitation (Sorocovschi, 2009). Consequently, these may record substantial negative or positive deviations with respect to the multiannual average of the entire region or of the weather stations. South Dobrudja is a territory with mean annual precipitation ranging from 300 to 500 mm, but in the history of recordings there were also situations when the mean precipitation was less than 300 mm (Constanta 225 mm in 1983; Mangalia 246.6 mm in 1990; Harsova 271 mm in 1983; Medgidia 287.1 mm and Adamclisi 295.1 mm in 1976). When cyclonic activity was more intense and weather fronts more active (1965-2000), this region recorded amounts of precipitation that exceeded 600 mm per year (Constanta 604.3 mm in 1995 and 642.2 mm in 1997; Mangalia 671 mm in 1995 and 615 mm in 1997). From year to year, the mean monthly and annual values are very different, which suggests that a more detailed analysis is needed. The present study relies on direct correlations between precipitation regime and air temperature, insisting on the characteristic months (January and July), when the non-periodic variations of these parameters may induce water scarcity and drought. The analysis has identified endorheic areas, like the Negru Voda Plateau and Cobadin Plateau, which lose significant amounts of water through evaporation. 58

CHARACTERISTICS OF ARIDITY CONDITIONS IN SOUTH DOBRUDJA

Figure.1. Geographical location of Constanta, Medgidia and Harsova weather stations

2. Data and methods


This study relies on the data recorded at the previously mentioned weather stations during the period 1961-2000, which allowed the computation of two significant pluviometric indices, namely the De Martonne aridity index (1926) and the Angot pluvial index. The aridity index (Iar,mm/0C), with emphasis on January and July, was used in order to highlight the thermal-pluviometric features of the study area. This index is described by the following relation: Iar = 12p/t+10, where p is the mean monthly precipitation (mm) and t is the mean monthly temperature (0C). The supplementary 100 added to the numerator help us acquire positive values (Gaceu, 2002). Generally, the low values of the Iar are specific for the dry areas, while the high ones characterize the wet regions. Instead, the Angot index emphasizes the climatic features of each month of the year, which means the subunit values define the dry months, while the values higher than one refer to the wet months. This coefficient was computed based on the following formula: k = q365/Q xn, where k is the Angot Pluvial Index, Q is the mean annual precipitation and n is the number of days in a month. The climate data employed for the present study were supplied by the three weather stations representative for South Dobrudja (table 1), which are located along an alignment oriented on a northwest-southeast direction. They were selected with the purpose of having a good perception of the influence exerted by the Danube and the Black Sea. However, it should be mentioned that Constanta 59

A. TISCOVSCHI, GABRIELA MANEA, O. COCOS, IULIANA VIJULIE, ROXANA CUCULICI

station, at least during the last decades, has not totally complied with the rules referring to the location of the meteorological sites. The reason is the construction of a number of buildings, which through their position and height have had a total or partial influence on climatic parameters. Although the prevailing western airflow reduces the climatic influence of the Black Sea to a strip of land of only 15-20 km wide, the seashore topoclimate is indicative for the effect that water bodies have on the weather parameters of the adjacent territories. The influence exerted by water (the Black Sea, the Danube, the Danube marshes and pools) is primarily due to its physical properties, and especially to the high specific heat, which makes the daily and annual temperature ranges be lower in its immediate vicinity in comparison with the areas lying farther away (Croitoru et al., 2012).
Table 1. Geographical coordinates of Constanta, Medgidia and Harsova weather stations No. 1 2 3 Weather station Constanta Medgidia Harsova Latitude 44 12'49" 44 14'35" 44041'15"
0 0

Longitude 28 38'41" 28 15'05" 27057'13"


0 0

Elevation (m) 14 70 20

3. Results and discussion


Looking at the mean monthly values of the De Martonne aridity index, we may observe that during the last decades, in the eastern part of the study area (fig.2, fig.4), the values less than 40 have arisen more frequently, while in the Medgidia Plateau they ranged from 50 to 60. The low values suggest that the eastern part of the investigated territory is very prone to aridity, which has a negative impact on agricultural productivity (Bogdan, 2002). Instead, during the warm season, the tendency of the De Martonne index (fig.3, fig.5) does not reveal significant differences between Constanta and Medgidia weather stations. It is worth noting that in summer precipitation variability is due to the frequency and direction of the pressure cells, air masses and weather fronts, which are responsible for the occurrence of drier or wetter years.

Over the South Dobrudja territory, the precipitation regime is influenced by the cyclonic activity and the penetration of anticylonic air masses. The last, are responsible for the occurrence of dryness or drought phenomena (more than 8 months per year of dryness and between one and three months of drought phenomena at all weather stations in the Dobrudja Plateau and on the Black Sea coast) (Vduva, 2005). 60

CHARACTERISTICS OF ARIDITY CONDITIONS IN SOUTH DOBRUDJA

The values of the De Martonne aridity index computed for the period 1961-2000 have allowed the separation of the investigated territory into two large areas: a drier one in the east, which is strongly influenced by the nearness of the Black Sea, and a moderate one in the west. In conclusion, one may notice a general drop of the mean annual precipitation from south to north, both at the weather stations on the Black Sea coast and at those lying along the Danube, while on an east-west direction precipitation generally increases as we move away from the sea (Pltineanu et al.,2007).
200

50

180

45

160

40

140

35

Indice ariditate

Indice ariditate

120

30

100

25

80

20

60

15

40

10

20

0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Fig. 2. The tendency of January values of De Martonne aridity index at at Constanta (1961-2000)

Fig. 3. The tendency of July values of De Martonne aridity index at Constanta (19612000)

200 180 160 140 Indice ariditate 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Indice ariditate

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Fig. 4. The tendency of January values of De Martonne aridity index at Medgidia (1961- 2000)

Fig. 5. The tendency of July values of De Martonne aridity index at Medgidia (1961- 2000)

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A. TISCOVSCHI, GABRIELA MANEA, O. COCOS, IULIANA VIJULIE, ROXANA CUCULICI

50 50 45 45 40 40 35 Indice de ariditate 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Indice de ariditate 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Fig. 6.The tendency of January values of De Martonne aridity index at Hrova (1961-2000)

Fig. 7. The tendency of July values of De Martonne aridity index at Hrova (1961-2000)

Another index taken into account for the present study is the Angot index, which is used in order to highlight the annual variability of atmospheric precipitation. It refers to the ratio between the mean daily precipitation in a month and the amount the respective month would get in case that precipitation would be evenly distributed for each day of the year. In March, at the beginning of the vegetation season, the values are low both on the seashore (25.5-27.9 mm) and inland (20.7-24.7 mm), but June is wetter, having values of 34.4-42.5 mm and 45.5-48.8 mm, respectively. Although these values represent the pluvial maximum phase, the water amount is not enough for the entire vegetation season (Albu, 2009). The highest amount of water evaporates during the vegetation period (April-October), due to the temperature increase and the intensification of biological processes in plants, while in July, the warmest month of the year, the potential evapotranspiration values reach their maximum. At Constanta weather station (fig. 8), the Angot index values are higher than one in May, June, November and December, while in the rest of the year the values are less than one, with the exception of September (when the values are very close to one). During the interval May-June, the local thermal and dynamic convection processes intensify, generating cumulonimbus clouds that bring about rain showers. In Dobrudja, the average precipitation of the warm season (the months IV to IX) accounts for more than 50 % of the annual amount on the seacoast and over 60% in the plateau area and the western territories (Bogdan, 2001).

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CHARACTERISTICS OF ARIDITY CONDITIONS IN SOUTH DOBRUDJA

1. 4

1.8

1.6

1. 2
1.4

1
1.2

0.8

0.6

0.8

0.4

0.6

0.4

0.2
0.2

0 I II III IV V VI VI I VI I I IX X XI XI I
0 I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII

Fig. 8 Variation of Angot index at Constanta station (1961-2000)

Fig. 9 Variation of Angot index at Medgidia station (1961-2000)

Instead, in the Medgidia Plateau (fig. 9), this coefficient has values higher than one for May, June, July and August, because in summertime, precipitation falls both from the frontal clouds and from the convective ones, with great vertical development.

4. Conclusions
The use of selected pluvial indexes (de Martonne, Angot) in the study of South Dobrudja aridity reveals that dryness phenomena, characteristic especially for the second part of the warm season, are also encountered in winter months (the de Martonne index was computed for January), when the dryness phenomena preceding the drought become increasingly frequent. Instead, the Angot index has been employed in order to highlight the specific features of the annual variations of precipitation, and especially for identifying the types of variation throughout the year. The influence of the Black Sea on the climate of South Dobrudja Plateau leads to numerous specific features like the decrease from west to east of the maximum absolute temperatures, of the mean annual range, of the mean annual precipitation and of the atmospheric calm. However, on the same direction, one can note an increase of the mean annual temperatures, of the insolation and solar radiation, of the wind speed, of the duration of dryness and drought phenomena etc. The most particular aspect in terms of climate singularity of this plateau is the high degree of continentality, which is a synthesis of the correlations among all climate parameters, but especially among temperature, precipitation and wind. These are the factors that define the semiarid character of Dobrudja Plateau, especially of its eastern side, which records long periods of dryness and drought whenever mean annual precipitation drops well below 400 mm. It is worth noting that atmospheric precipitation may be absent in any month of the year, or even on several months in a row. The aridity phenomenon occurs mostly during the warm 63

A. TISCOVSCHI, GABRIELA MANEA, O. COCOS, IULIANA VIJULIE, ROXANA CUCULICI

season, to the end of summer, when the region is under the influence of a highpressure cell (usually of continental type), with pluvial deficit, which influences pre-eminently the eastern division. The studies accomplished so far in Romania with respect to dryness phenomena and drought, which are based on the use of de Martonne aridity index, reveal that extra Carpathian regions are drier, and that aridity is a common phenomenon for the southeastern territories, where the investigated area lies, too. The analysis of pluvial indices in correlation with the vegetal formations specific for South Dobrudja has revealed that there is a strong interdependence among temperatures, precipitation and the spatial distribution of vegetal formations, especially the spontaneous ones. This interdependence has a restrictive effect on vegetal cover, depending on climate conditions. In the last decades, the expansion of grassy vegetation to the detriment of the forest steppe has become more prominent.
REFERENCES Albu, Anca, (2009), Relatia clima-vegetatie in Dobrogea de Sud, Summary of the Ph.D, paper, Faculty of Geography, University of Bucharest; 2. Bogdan, Octavia, (2001), Individualitatea climatic a Podiului Dobrogean, Academia Romn, Institutul de Geografie, T.VII 2000; 3. Bogdan, Octavia, (2002), Formele de uscciune i secet, cele mai tipice riscuri climatice din Dobrogea, Analele Universitatii Ovidius, Nr. 1, Vol. I; 4. Ciulache, S., Toric, V., (2003), Clima Dobrogei, Analele Universitii Bucureti, anul LII. 5. Cocos Alina, Cocos O., Sarbu I. (2011) Coping with water scarcity: the case of the Calnistea catchement (Romania), Environmental Earth Sciences, volume 67, no. 3, DOI 10.1007/s12665-011-1513-y 6. Croitoru Adina-Eliza, Piticar A., Imbroane A., Burada Doina (2012), Spatiotemporal distribution of aridity indices based on temperature and precipitation in the extraCarpathian regions of Romania, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, DOI 10.1007/s00704-012-0755-2; 7. Gaceu O.,(2002), Elemente de climatologie practica, Edit.Universitatii din Oradea, 8. Mihilescu, I. F., Toric, V., Pltineanu,C., Anca Nicoleta Albu, (2000), Repartiia teritorial a unor fenomene atmosferice de risc specifice perioadei reci a anului n Dobrogea. Sesiunea Jubilar, Fac. Geografie, Univ. Bucureti 9. Pltineanu, Cr., Mihilescu, I.F., Seceleanu, I., Dragot, Carmen, Vasenciuc, Felicia (2007), Ariditatea, seceta, evapotranspiria i cerinele de ap ale culturilor agricole n Romnia, Editura Ovidius University Press, 319 p.,Constana; 10. Paltineanu Cr., Tanasescu N., Chitu E., Mihailescu I.F. (2007), Relationships between the De Martonne aridity index and water requirements of some representative crops: A case study from Romania, Int.Agrophysics, 21, p.81-93 11. Pltineanu, Cr., Mihilescu, I.F., Seceleanu, I., Dragot, Carmen, Vasenciuc, Felicia (2007), Using aridity indices to describe some climate and soil features in Eastern 1.

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Europe : a Romanian case study, Theoretical and Applied Climatology 90: 263-274, doi 10.1007/s00704-007-0293-3 12. Sorocovschi, V. (2009), Seceta: concept, geneza, attribute si clasificare, Riscuri si catastrofe, vol.VIII, nr.7, p.62-63, Casa Cartii de Stiinta, Cluj-Napoca 13. Vduva, Iulica, (2005), Maximum quantities of raifall registered in 24 hours in the South Dobroudja Plateu, Analele Universitatii Ovidius seria Geografie, Constana, vol. I, nr.2, p. 43-50.

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RISCURI I CATASTROFE, NR. XII, VOL. 12, NR. 1/2013

CONSIDERATIONS ON THE THERMAL CONDITIONS IN THE REGHIN HILLS


I.A. IRIMU1, J. SZILGYI1
Abstract. - Considerations on the thermal conditions in the Reghin Hills. Knowledge regarding the thermal conditions of the air presents a theoretical and practical importance through the influence it has over the other elements of the climate (the rainfall in the atmosphere, the air humidity) as well as on some socioeconomical activities.This paper represents an analysis of the parameters which define the thermal conditions in the Reghin Subcarpathians with a special view on the annual and monthly variations of air temperature, and the establishment of the thermal conditions over years and months based on the Hellmann criterion. With a view to the establishment of the vulnerability of the analyzed territory we proceeded to estimate the annual and monthly frequency of the days with different thermal characteristics: the frequency of days with a minimum temperature of 10C, with a minimum temperature of 0C; with a maximum temperature of 25C and with a maximum temperature of 30C. The analysis of the parameters which define the thermal conditions in the Reghin Hills was realized on the basis of the data recorded at the two meteorological stations existing in the studied area, the Trgu-Mures Meteorologic Station ( = 4632', = 2432', H = 308m) and the Batos Meteorologic Station ( = 4654', = 2439', H = 449m) for the 1978-2008 interval. Keywords: thermal conditions, the variation in the air temperature, extreme temperature, vulnerability, risk.

1. Introduction
Air temperature is a variable measure with some particularities conditioned by geographic location, air masses movement, relief characteristics (altitude, fragmentation degree, slope orientation), vegetation type and coverage, drainage network characteristics, area population degree, industrialization degree and socioeconomical activities typology. In airs thermal regime description for Reghin Hills we analyzed the main parameters that define thermal regime: air temperatures annual and monthly
1

Babe-Bolyai University , Faculty of Geography, 400006, Cluj Napoca, Romania, e-mail: irimus@geografie.ubbcluj.ro; jozsefszilagyi @yahoo.com.

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CONSIDERATIONS ON THE THERMAL CONDITIONS IN THE REGHIN HILLS

variations and deviations, intermonthly thermal variations; to determine the thermal characteristics for each year and month we analyzed the positive and negative deviations using Hellmann Criterion. To determine lands vulnerability we analyzed the annual and monthly frequency for days with different thermal characteristics: frequency of days with minimum temperature -10C; with minimum temperatures 0C; with maximum temperatures 25C; and with maximum temperatures 30C. The parameters analyze for the thermal regime of Reghin Hills used the data from the two meteorological station that exist on our area - Trgu Mure Meteorological Station ( = 4632', =2432', H =308m) and Bato Meteorological Station ( = 4654', =2439', H =449m) for the years 19782008.

2. Annual average temperature


Multiannual average temperatures, computed using values from the years 1987-2008, are 8,9C at Bato and 9,2C at Trgu Mure. Depending on radiation flux variations and air circulation, annual average temperature presents annual variations, with positive and negative deviations from multiannual average. Annual average temperature ranges between 8,2-10,4C at Trgu Mure and 7,9-10 at Bato. From these years, 2007 and 1994 have the highest values for average air temperatures: 10,4C (2007), 10,3C (1994) at Trgu Mure Station, and 10C (2007, 1994) at Bato Station. The lowest average air temperatures were 8,2C (1993) at Trgu Mure Station and 7,9C (1987, 1997) at Bato Station.
11 10,5 10 9,5
C

10,3 y = 0,0186x + 9,0455 10 R2 = 0,0372 8,2 y = 0,0573x + 8,2143 R2 = 0,2873 7,9 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 7,9 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

10,4

10

9 8,5 8 7,5

2007

Trgu Mure

Bato

Linear (Bato)

Linear (Trgu Mure)

Figure 1. Annual average temperatures variation

67

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I.A. IRIMU, J. SZILGYI

3. Annual average temperatures deviations from multiannual average


After analyzing positive and negative deviations of annual average temperatures from multiannual average, we observe that the frequency of years with positive deviations decreases from Mure Corridor (45,4% Trgu Mure) to submountaine area (31,8% Bato). Positive deviation values present oscillations between +0,1C and +1,2C, with maximum values for positive deviations in the years 1990 (+0,9C), 1994 (+1,1C), 2002 (+0,9C) and 2007 (+1,2C), when the annual average temperatures presented the highest values, exceeding 10C. The years with negative thermal deviations from multiannual average represent 54,6% at Trgu Mure Station and 68,2% at Bato Station, with deviation values between 0,2C and -1C.

1,5 1 0,5 C 0 -0,5 -1 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 -1,5

Trgu Mure

Bato

Figure 2. Annual average temperatures deviation from multiannual average

To mark out the non-periodic variations of annual average temperatures, we calculated the positive and negative deviations of annul average temperatures from multiannual average, declared as normal, after the Hellmann Criterion. From this analyze following Hellmann Criterion, we observe a decrease of normal thermal years frequency (68,2% Trgu Mure, 54,5% Bato), and an increase of cool years (9,1% Trgu Mure, 27,3% Bato), from areas western part to main subcarpathian hilly area. This situation is determined by altitude differences, air masses circulation, quartering of cold air that climbs down Oriental Carpathian slopes in depressions and valleys from subcarpathian hills. Warm years, at both stations, had a frequency of 13,6%, and hot years a frequency of 9,1-13,6%. 68

CONSIDERATIONS ON THE THERMAL CONDITIONS IN THE REGHIN HILLS

Table 1. Years thermal characteristics after Hellmann criterium (1987-2008) (Source: processed data after NMA Archive)
Hot Station Trgu Mure Bato No. years 2 3 Freq. % 9,1 13,6 Warm No. Freq. years % 3 13,6 3 13,6 Normal No. Freq. years % 15 68,2 10 45,5 No. years 2 6 Cool Freq. % 9,1 27,3

4. Monthly average temperatures


The evolution of multiannual monthly average temperatures are situated in the thermal regime of plateau units, with the lowest values registrated in January (2,3C a Trgu Mure and Bato), and the highest in July (20,5C at Trgu Mure, 19,7C at Bato).
Table 2. Monthly, annual average temperature and annual thermal amplitude (1987-2008)
Station Trgu Bato I II III 4,1 3,4 IV 10,2 9,6 V 15,3 14,9 VI 18,6 17,8 VII 20,5 19,7 VIII 19,6 19,9 IX 14,5 13,8 X 9,3 9,1 XI 3,3 3,6 XII An 9,2 8,9

(Source: processed data after NMA Archive)

From February, the airs temperature starts to increase till July, when appears the highest thermal values; the intermonthly thermal differences are of 26% determined by airs warming caused by high values of radiation balance and thermal convection. Starting with July, the temperatures gradually decrees till January, with negative values for intermonthly thermal differences between 0,2 and -6C; the biggest thermal differences appear in September (Bato) and November (Trgu Mure), when airs temperature drops with 6C from the previous month.

c 25 20 15 10 5 0 I -5 II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII

Trgu Mure

Bato

Figure 3. Monthly average temperatures variation (1987-2008).

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I.A. IRIMU, J. SZILGYI

Table 3. Intermonth thermal differences (1987-2008)


Station Trgu Bato I1,3 1,1 II5,1 4,6 III6,1 6,2 IV5,1 5,3 V3,3 2,9 VI1,9 1,9 VII-0,9 0,2 VIII-5,1 -6,1 IX-5,2 -4,7 X-6,0 -5,5 XI-4,8 -4,5

(Source: processed data after NMA Archive)

5. Airs monthly average temperature variation in January and July


January is considered the coldest year month, with a multiannual monthly average temperature of -2,3C at both analyzed stations. The average values of January temperatures present oscillation between 0 and -5C, with 59% cases below the multiannual monthly average. The lowest values of Januarys thermal average were -6,9C (Trgu Mure) and -6,7C (Bato) in 2006. These low values were determined by the advection of cold air with polar origin from the continents north and north-east side.The accidental penetration of warm tropical or Mediterranean origin air from south determines strong warming with positive values of airs temperatures. Hence, Januarys monthly average temperature between 1987-2008 had positive values in 4 cases, that means a frequency of 18,1%. The highest monthly average values were of 3,4C (1990) and 2,1C (2007) at Trgu Mure Station; the highest value for Bato Station was of 1,8C (2007). After analyzing Januarys thermal characteristics according to Hellmann Criterion, we observe the domination at both stations of normal thermal months, with a frequency of 36,3%, and cold months, with a frequency of 18,2-22,7%. Chill months frequency is similar with warm months frequency (13,718,2%), followed by hot months 9,1% and very hot months 4,5%. July is the years hottest month, with a multiannual monthly average temperature of 20,7C at Trgu Mure and 19,7C at Bato. Between 1987-2008, July was the hottest years month in 63,6% cases at Trgu Mure and 59% cases at Bato. Julys average air temperature values in these years had oscillations between 19-21C at Trgu Mure and 17-20C at Bato, exceeding with 50% at both stations the multiannual monthly average. The highest average air temperature values for July were of 22,4C (1987) at Trgu Mure and 21,1C (2002, 2007) at Bato, exceeding the multiannual average temperature with 13,2C, respectively 12,2C. The analyze of Julys thermal characteristics after Hellmann Criterion marks out the high frequency of normal thermal months, with a frequency of 54,5% at Trgu Mure and 50,0% at Bato; hot months have a frequency of 27,3% at Trgu Mure and 22,8% at Bato. Chill months have a frequency of 18,2% at both analyzed stations. The lowest frequencies, of 4,5%, belong to cold and very hot months. 70

CONSIDERATIONS ON THE THERMAL CONDITIONS IN THE REGHIN HILLS

Bato
18.20% 18.20% 13.70%

Trgu Mure
4.50% 22.70%

9.10%

9.10%

18.20%

13.70%

36.30%

36.30%

Rece

Rcoros

Normal

Clduros

Cald

Rece Clduros

Rcoros Cald

Normal Foarte cald

Figure 4. January thermal characteristics after Hellmann Criterion (1987-2008)

Bato

Trgu Mure

18,20%
4,50% 22,80% 4,50% 18,20%

27,30%

50,00%

54,50%
Rcoros Normal Clduros

Rece

Rcoros

Normal

Clduros

Cald

Figure 5. July thermal characteristics after Hellmann Criterion (1987-2008)

6. Absolute temperatures
6.1 Minimum absolute temperatures The lowest airs absolute temperature values in our area between 19872008 were -24,5C in January 2006, February 1987 and December 2001 at Trgu Mure Station, and +26,2C in January 1987 at Bato Station. These low values were determined by cold air masses invasion with polar or arctic origin caused by the development of Scandinavian or Siberian High Ridge, after the development of a low pressure area in the Mediterranean Basin. The lowest value in the spring months appeared in March, with -18C at Trgu Mure and -17,6C at Bato, and in autumn months the lowest absolute value appeared in November : -19,6C (1989) at Trgu Mure and -19,2C at Bato (2001). For summer months, the lowest absolute values at both stations appeared in June, with 2,5C (1990) at Trgu Mure and 1,5C at Bato.

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Table 4.Absolute minimum monthly and annual temperature (1987-2008)


Station Tg. Mure C I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII Year

-24,5

-24,5

-18

-5,9

-3,7

2,5

4,6

5,5

-0,6

-8,4

-19,6

-24,5

-24,5 01.01.06 01.02.87 25.12.01 -26,2 31.01.87

Date Bato C

01. 06 -26,2

01. 87 -25,8

06. 93 -17,6

21. 05 -5,4

03. 07 -3,6

01. 90 1,5

20. 96 4

31. 93 3,6

10. 04 0

27. 88 -9,8

30. 89 -19,2

25. 01 -22,2

Date 31.87 01.87 05.87 07.03 03.07 02.87

09.93 07.87 29.97 28.88 30.89 18.01

(Source: processed data after NMA Archive)

6.2 Absolute maximum temperature The highest absolute temperatures were registered in this years in July 37,9C (2007) at Trgu Mure Station, and in August 35,8C (2007) at Bato Station. These high thermal values were determined by the extension of Sahara or Tibetan Lows, bringing hot and dry tropical continental air to out latitude. Springs absolute maximum appeared in May, with 32,8C (2003) at Trgu Mure and 30,8C (1994) at Bato; autumn months present the highest absolute values in September 35,2C (2008) at Trgu Mure and 33,2C (2008) at Bato. Winter months had the highest absolute values for both stations in February 18,1C (1998) at Trgu Mure and 16,6C (1994) at Bato.
Table 5. Monthly and annual absolute maximum temperature (1987-2008)
Station C C I 16,5 16,5 II 18,1 16,6 III 26.6 23,1 IV 27,6 25,6 V 32,8 30,8 VI 34,7 32,6 VII 37,9 VIII 36,8 35,8 IX 35,2 X 28,8 XI 24,5 XII 15,7 An 37,9 35,8

Tg. Mure Date 08.01 22.98 25.01 06.98 11.03 26.07 24.07 22.00 07.08 04.06 02.03 01.08 24.07 Bato 35,6 33,2 27,3 23,3 16,4 Date 08.01 28.94 25.01 29.92 18.94 16.01 20.87 24.07 07.08 04.06 01.08 05.08 24.07

Source: processed data after NMA Archive

7. Frequency of days with different characteristic temperatures


The frequency of frosty nights (minimum temperature -10C) in our study area has an average of 20 days/year. They appear between November and March when air temperature drops strongly due to the advection of cold polar or subpolar air, and because of radiative cooling. Depression areas and valley corridors have optimum conditions for cool air quartering, determining higher frosty nights number into submountain area. The highest frosty nights number produced in 1987 and 1993, with 39 cases at Bato and 41 cases at Trgu Mure, representing a deviation of more than 72

CONSIDERATIONS ON THE THERMAL CONDITIONS IN THE REGHIN HILLS

1005 over the multiannual average. After analyzing the monthly variation of frosty nights, we observed that the highest nights number appears in January and February, with a multiannual average of 5,5 6,9 days in areas western part, and 5,8 7,4 days in submountain sector. <<<<
Table 6. Number of frosty nights, with minimum temperatures -10C
Station Tg.Mure Bato Med. No. Max. No. Med. No. Max. No. I 6,9 17 7,4 16 II 5,5 18 5,8 18 III 1,4 5 1,5 10 IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI 0,9 6 1,0 6 XII 5,7 21 5,1 16 Year 20,4 30 20,8 39

Source: processed data after NMA Archive

Winter days have a higher frequency; the number of days with maximum temperatures 0C has an average of 30 days/year. Winter days appear from November till March, with the highest frequency in January and December and a multiannual average of 12 days, respectively 10 days. The air temperature increases from March due to solar radiation flux intensify, so the winter days decrease rapidly; they can appear only in conditions of cold air advection due to air pressure decrease in Romania that attracts cold air masses from North Sea (Topor, 1958).
Table 7. Number of days with maximum temperatures 0C (winter days)
Station Tg.Mure Bato Med. No. Max. No. Med. No. Max. No. I 12 26 11,6 28 II 6 19 7,5 19 III 1 9 1,2 9 IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI 1,6 6 2,6 8 XII 10,6 23 9,8 24 Year 31,2 44 32,7 45

Source: processed data after NMA Archive

Freezing days (minimum temperatures 0C), appear between October and May, with the highest frequency during winter months, when the advections of cold polar or arctic origin air have a higher frequency than usual. The multiannual average freezing days number in our area is of 113 117 days. The highest frequency of freezing days in a year appears in January, with a multiannual average of 27 freezing days, followed by December and February, with an average of 23 days.
Table 8. Number of days with minimum temperatures 0C (freezing days)(
Station Tg.Mure Bato Med. No. Max. No. Med. No. Max. No. I 27,0 31 26,5 31 II 23,0 28 22,9 28 III 17,3 27 17,1 26 IV 4,3 14 4,4 14 V 1,1 8 0,9 6 VI VII VIII IX X 5,8 13 4,5 12 XI 15,7 30 14,5 30 XII 22,9 31 23,1 31 Year 117,1 142 113,9 140

Source: processed data after NMA Archive

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I.A. IRIMU, J. SZILGYI

Even though transition seasons present a lower number days with temperatures below 0C, they are a great risk factor for agriculture, construction and transportation activities, and none the less for human health. Summer days (maximum temperature 25C) appear between March and October, with the highest frequency in summer months due to positive caloric balance and to the advection of warm tropical or continental air masses. In a day, the highest frequency for summer days appears in July and August, with an average of 20 23 days, followed by June and May with an average of 16, respectively 9 days. March, April and September present few days with maximum temperatures 25C, the number of summer days not exceeding 5 days/month. Also, after analyzing the monthly variation of summer days, we observe that their number decreases with altitude increase, from the areas western part to submountanian part. The multiannual average summer days number is 80 days, with the highest summer days number registrated in 2002, when 101 days were registrated at Trgu Mure and 80 summer days at Bato.
Table 9. Number of days with maximum temperatures 25C (summer days)
Station Tg.Mure Bato Med. No. Max. No. Med. No. Max. No. I II III 0,1 2 0 0 IV 1,1 4 0,5 4 V 9,0 25 5 10 VI 16 25 13,0 21 VII 23,0 29 20,7 26 VIII 22,2 18,4 25 IX 6,7 22 4,6 19 X 1,1 5 0,8 6 XI XII Year 79,4 101 63 80

Source: processed data after NMA Archive

Tropical days (maximum temperatures 30C) appear between May and September, with the highest frequency during July and August, due to the advection of warm air with tropical maritime origin from the south-western continent part, or with tropical continental origin that enters our country from south-east. The best conditions for the appearance of tropical days are gathered after the extension of .., when air masses of tropical origin cross Asia Minor reaching our country as a warm or hot air mass, with a low relative humidity, causing a very hot and dry weather. The multiannual average summer days number is of 22,4 days in Mure Corridor, and 12,3 days in the hilly area, with the highest number of days registered in August an average of 7,7 days.
Table 10. Number of days with maximum temperatures 30C (tropical days)
Station Tg.Mure Bato Med. No. Max. No. Med. No. Max. No. I II III IV V 1 9 0,5 5 VI 3,7 13 3,1 12 VII 9 17 4,5 15 VIII 7,7 23 3,5 19 IX 1,0 8 0,5 7 X XI XII Year 22,4 38 12,3 24

Source: processed data after NMA Archive

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CONSIDERATIONS ON THE THERMAL CONDITIONS IN THE REGHIN HILLS

Conclusions
Multiannual average temperatures, based on values registered between 1987- 2008 are of 8,9C at Bato and 9,2C at Trgu Mure; The frequency of years with positive deviations decreases from Mure Corridor (45,4% at Trgu Mure) to the submountain area (31,8% at Bato); After analyzing the years thermal characteristics after Hellmann Criterion, we observe a frequency decrease of normal thermal years (68,2% Trgu Mure, 54,5% Bato) and an increase of chill years frequency (9,1% Trgu Mure, 27,3% Bato), from the areas western part to the main subcarpathian sector; warm years for both stations, have a frequency of 13,6%, and hot years of 9,1% - 13,6%. January is considered the coldest year month, with a multiannual monthly average temperature of -2,3C at both stations; July is the hottest year month, with a multiannual monthly average temperature of 20,7C at Trgu Mure and 19,7C at Bato; Frosty nights frequency (minimum temperatures -10C) has an average if 20 days/year; Winter days (maximum temperatures 0C) have an average of 30 days/year, appearing from November till March, with the highest frequency during January and December, with a multiannual average of 12 days, respectively 10 days; Summer days (maximum temperatures 25) are registered during July and August, with an average of 20 23 days, followed by June and May with an average of 16 days, respectively 9 days; Tropical days (maximum temperatures 30C) appear in 22,4 cases in Mure Corridor and 12,3 cases in the main submountain sector.

REFERENCES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Bogdan, Octavia, Niculescu, Elena, (1999), Climatic risks in Romania, Academic Publisher, Bucharest Cheval, S., and all, (2003), Quantitative Methods and Indices used in climatology, Oradea University, Oradea Croitoru, Adina-Eliza, (2003), Climatic risk phenomena practical works notebook, Nereamia Napocae, Cluj-Napoca. Dumiter, Aurelia, Florina, (2007), Oradea climate and topoclimates, Oradea University, Oradea Frca., I. (1988), Meteorological measurements and calculations, Part II, Climate data processing and interpretation methodology, Cluj Napoca.

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6. 7. 8. 9.

Gaceu, O., (2002), Elements of practical climatology, Oradea University, Oradea Moldovan, F., (2003), Climatic risk phenomena, Echinox, Cluj-Napoca Topor, N., Stncescu ,I., (1963), Orography influence over some atmospheric factors, especially minimum temperature, Works collections - 1961, Meteorology Institute, Bucharest *** Meteorological Tables TM-11 (years 1978-2008)

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RISCURI I CATASTROFE, NR. XII, VOL. 12, NR. 1/2013

STUDY OF RAINFALL PERIODS IN THE CRASNA BASIN UNTIL THE CONFLENCE WITH ZALAU
OANA MOIGRDEAN
Abstract. - Study of Rainfall Periods in the Crasna Basin Until the Conflence with Zalau. The rainfall periods in the Crasna Basin were determined using the weighted anomaly standardized precipitation (WASP). We processed and analyzed data from the period between 1990-2000 from one meteorological station and eight rainfall stations. WASP values were calculated for intervals of one year and of six months (semesters). The frequency analysis was done on three domains of the precipitation periods (rainy, normal and dry). The rainfall risk characterization was studied on three groups: risk by excess, risk by deficiency and free of risk. By analyzing the resulting rainfall periods the wet domains have the predominant share followed by the normal and dry domains. The frequency analysis of the group with risk and without risk indicate a net predominance of situations without rainfall risk. In the spatial distribution of exceeding rainfall periods appear some contrasts, determined by the positions of stations and posts regarding the prevailing western air masses advections. Key words: rainfall periods, classes, fields, rainfall risk groups

1. General considerations
The weighted anomaly standardized precipitation (WASP) is one of the most frequent used methods in the specialized literature, being recommended in the study of the droughts and of the rainy periods. For the period between 1990 2010 the WASP values were calculated at a meteorological station (Zalau) and eight representative rainfall stations from the Crasna Basin until the confluence with Zalau. In order to make comparisons at the Zalau station the WASP values were also calculated for the reference period between 1961 2010. We need to say that at the Mesesenii de Jos and Banisor posts there are no observations before 1990. The WASP values were calculated for intervals of one year and of six months (the hot and cold semesters of the year).

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Based on the calculated WASP values thresholds were established in order to assign marks to the analyzed intervals. In order to identify the marks we used the threshold-values recommended by the International Institute for Research and Predictability (Table 1). The frequency analysis was done on three domains of rainfall periods (rainy, normal and dry). Rainfall risk characterization was studied on three groups: risk by excess, risk by deficiency and free of risk.
Table. 1. The rainfall marks according to the value of the weighted anomaly standardized precipitation
Value of WASP 3,00 2,00....2,99 1,00...1,99 0,51...0,99 -0,55...+0,5 -0,51...-0,99 -1,99...-1,00 Symbol of the class P4 P3 P2 P1 N S1 S2 Rainfall class (mark) Extremely rainy Very rainy Moderate rainy Little rainy Normal Litte dry Moderate dry Rainfall domain Rainy Normal Dry Rainfall risk groups Rainfall risk by excess Free of rainfall risk Rainfall risk by deficiency

-2,99...2,00 -3,00

S3 S4

Very dry Extremely dry

2. The weighted anomaly standardized precipitation calculated for intervals of one year
Out of the frequency analysis of the WASP value classes resulted that the studied period lacked extremely rainy and extremely dry years. In the region the average frequency of the very rainy years, is low (3.17%). This class is absent in the South-Eastern part of the region (the rainfall stations Banisor and Starciu) and also at Borla. At the rest of the rainfall stations and the meteorological station Zalau, only one very rainy year was recorded (2010), representing a frequency of 4.76%. The region average frequency of the moderate rainy years (15.34%) is exceeded by that of the rainy years (17.46%). Regarding these average values there are quite important differences (table 2). At the rainfall stations Borla, Meseseni, Crasna and Simleu Silvaniei the rates of the frequency grow from the mark very rainy (4.76%) towards the little rainy one (19.05 23.81%). On the other side, for the rest of the rainfall stations it is not possible to establish a rule for the frequency evolution. At Zalau meteorological station the very rainy years appeared with the same frequency as the little rainy ones (4.76%), while the moderate rainy years predominated (33.33%). At Sarmasag the very rainy and moderate rainy years have equal shares (4.76%) while the little rainy ones have a greater share (19.05%). Equal shares can 78

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be observed at Varsolt, this time for the moderate rainy and little rainy years (23.81%). At Banisor rainfall station, the moderate rainy years have the highest frequency (23.81%), followed by the little rainy ones (9.52%), while the very rainy ones are absent.
Table 2.The frequency on value classes of WASP for the anual rainfall (%).
Station Zalau Borla Sarmasag Banisor Starciu Meseseni Crasna Varsolt Simleu Average on region P4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 P3 4.76 0.00 4.76 0.00 0.00 4.76 4.76 4.76 4.76 3.17 P2 33.33 19.05 4.76 23.81 14.29 9.52 9.52 14.29 9.52 15.34 P1 4.76 23.81 19.05 9.52 19.05 19.05 23.81 14.29 23.81 17.46 N 28.57 23.81 42.86 28.57 38.10 33.33 33.33 38.10 33.33 33.33 S1 14.29 14.29 14.29 23.81 9.52 19.05 14.29 9.52 14.29 14.81 S2 14.29 19.05 9.52 9.52 19.05 9.52 14.29 19.05 14.29 14.29 S3 0.00 0.00 4.76 4.76 0.00 4.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.59 S4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Of all the WASP value classes the maximum frequency is held by the normal years from the rainfall point of view, representing at the level of the analyzed region, 33.33% of the years taken into account. Against the average situation, the frequency of this class varies between 23.81% (at Borla) and 42.86% (at Sarrmasag). In the analyzed region there were no extremely dry years, while the very dry ones had a very low frequency (1.59%), with only one such year 1990 at Banisor and 2000 at Sarmasag and Meseseni. The average frequency of the moderate dry years (14.29%) is very close of that of the little dry ones (14.81%). The frequency of the moderate dry years varies quite much in the analyzed region, from 19.05% at Borla, Starciu and Varsolt to 9.52% at Sarmasag, Banisor and Meseseni. Analyzing the frequency on rainfall domains one can notice the fact that at the level of the studied region the rainy domain predominates (35.98%), followed by the normal one (33.33%) and in the end by the dry domain (Fig. 1). In most of the region the largest share is held by the rainy domain with higher values on Zalau Valley (42.86% at Zalau and Borla). At Sarmasag and Varsolt rainfall stations the normal domain predominates with values of 42.86%, respectively 38.10%. At Banisor, the dry domain appears with the maximum frequency (38.10%). An interesting situation can be noticed at Mesesenii de Jos, where all the domains appear with the same frequency (33.33%) (Table 3). For the most of the rainfall stations the shares of the rainy domain are greater than those of the dry domain. The differences stand between 14.29% (at Zalau) and 4.76% at Starciu and Varsolt. The 79

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rainfall stations Banisor (where the dry domain predominates), Sarmasag and Meseseni (equal frequencies) wander off this rule (Table 3).

Figure 1 The average frequency of the years on rainfall domains at he level of the Crasna Basin (a) and at the meteorological station and rainfall stations (b) Table 3. The frequency on rainfall domains of the anual rainfall (%)
Domain Station, Rainfall post Zalau Borla Sarmasag Banisor Starciu Meseseni Crasna Varsolt Simleu Silvaniei Average on region Rainy 42.86 42.86 28.57 33.33 33.33 33.33 38.10 33.33 38.10 35.98 Normal 28.57 23.81 42.86 28.57 38.10 33.33 33.33 38.10 33.33 33.33 Dry 28.57 33.33 28.57 38.10 28.57 33.33 28.57 28.57 28.57 30.69

At Zalau meteorological station, along the reference period 1961 2000, one can notice resembling values of the frequency of the three rainfall domains. The normal domain predominates (38%), followed by the rainy one (32%) and the dry domain (30%). (Fig. 2) The frequency on groups with or without rainfall risk outlines the share held by the years free of risk against the years with risk by excess or by deficiency (Table 4). The average value on the region (65.61%) is overpassed at the rainfall stations Sarmasag, Starciu, Meseseni, Crasna and Simleu Silvaniei. 80

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Figure 2. The frequency of the rainfall domains at Zalau on the reference period (a) and compared with the average on the region for the period 1990-2010 (b) Table 4. The frequency on risk and free of risk groups ot the anual rainfall (%)
Group Station , Rainfall post Zalau Borla Sarmasag Banisor Starciu Meseseni Crasna Varsolt Simleu Silvaniei Average on region Risk by excess 38.10 19.05 9.52 23.81 14.29 14.29 14.29 19.05 14.29 18.52 Free of risk 47.62 61.90 76.19 61.90 66.67 71.43 71.43 61.90 71.43 65.61 Risk by deficiency 14.29 19.05 14.29 14.29 19.05 14.29 14.29 19.05 14.29 15.87

At the level of the region the frequency of the years with risk by deficiency (15.87%) is lower than that of the years with risk by excess (18.52%) (Fig. 3). The wanders off the average situation are determined by the different positions regarding the prevailing wet western air masses advections and by the local morphological conditions. At five rainfall stations, namely Borla, Meseseni, Crasna, Varsolt and Simleu Silvaniei, the frequency of the years with risk by deficiency equals that of the years with risk by excess. At Sarmasag and Starciu the frequency of the years with risk by deficiency (14.29 19.05%) overpasses the frequency of the years with risk by excess (9.52% - 14.29%), while at Banisor and Zalau the years with risk by excess are more frequent than those with risk by deficiency (Table 4). At Zalau meteorological station, on the reference period, the situation is resembling, with the mention that the group free of risk (58%) loses ground against the group with risk by excess (26%). (Fig. 4)

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Figure.3. The average frequency of the years with rainfall risk and free of risk at the level of the Crasna Basin (a) and at the meteorological and rainfall stations (b)

a b Figure 4 .The frequency of the years with rainfall risk and free of risk at Zalau on the reference period (a) and compared with the average on the region for the period 1990-2010 (b)

3. The weighted anomaly standardized precipitation calculated for semesters


The calculation of WASP for the hot semester (April-September) and the cold one (October-March) was done also for practical reasons, taking into consideration the assurance of the water supply for agriculture in the hot period of the year and the knowledge of the water accumulated in the soil and in the reservoir during the cold period of the year. The hot semester The frequency on value classes of WASP shows the absence of extreme classes and the predominance of normal cases, which at the level of the studied region show a value of 35.45%. The very rainy hot semesters had a very low frequency (4.76%) as compared to the moderate rainy (9.52%-23.81%) and little rainy ones (4.76%23.81%). At Zalau meteorological station the frequency of the little rainy hot semesters (23.81%) is very high overpassing that of the normal cases (19.05%). 82

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The normal values class has the highest frequencies (42.86%) at Meseseni and Simleu Silvaniei and the lowest at Zalau (19.05%). In most of the region the moderate dry hot seasons had a higher frequency (19.05%-23.81%) as compared to the little dry ones (4.76%-19.05%). As an exception, at Borla and Zalau, the moderate dry values class has equal frequencies with that of the little dry class (14.29%, respectively 19.05%). Also at Simleu Silvaniei the moderate dry hot seasons are less frequent (14.29%) than the little dry ones (19.05%). The very dry value class has low frequencies (4.76%), being present only at Borla (Table 5).
Table. 5. The frequency on WASP value classes for the rainfall in the hot semester (%)
Zalau Borla Sarmasag Banisor Starciu Meseseni Crasna Varsolt Simleu Average on region P4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 P3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.76 4.76 4.76 1.59 P2 19.05 14.29 19.05 23.81 19.05 19.05 9.52 14.29 14.29 16.93 P1 23.81 23.81 14.29 9.52 9.52 4.76 14.29 4.76 4.76 12.17 N 19.05 28.57 38.10 38.10 38.10 42.86 33.33 38.10 42.86 35.45 S1 19.05 14.29 9.52 4.76 14.29 14.29 19.05 19.05 19.05 14.81 S2 19.05 14.29 19.05 23.81 19.05 19.05 19.05 19.05 14.29 18.52 S3 0.00 4.76 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.53 S4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Table. 6. The frequency on WASP value classes for the rainfall in the cold semester (%)
P4 Zalau Borla Sarmasag Banisor Starciu Meseseni Crasna Varsolt Simleu Average on region 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 P3 4.76 4.76 0.00 4.76 4.76 0.00 4.76 4.76 4.76 3.70 P2 14.29 14.29 19.05 9.52 9.52 23.81 4.76 9.52 9.52 12.70 P1 23.81 19.05 9.52 19.05 19.05 9.52 33.33 19.05 4.76 17.46 N 19.05 23.81 28.57 23.81 28.57 33.33 14.29 28.57 42.86 26.98 S1 19.05 9.52 19.05 23.81 14.29 9.52 19.05 14.29 19.05 16.40 S2 19.05 28.57 23.81 19.05 23.81 23.81 23.81 23.81 19.05 22.75 S3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 S4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

The frequency on rainfall domains underlines the fact that in most of the region the frequency of the normal hot seasons (38.10%-42.86%) is higher than that of the other domains. 83

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At the rainfall stations on Zalau Valley and at Banisor the frequency of rainy hot seasons is higher than that of the dry ones (Table 6). At the rest of the stations the frequency of the dry hot seasons is higher than that of the rainy ones (Figure 4). Analyzing the frequency on rainfall domains at the level of the whole region one can notice the fact that the shares are quite close, the maximum values being held by the normal domain (35.45%), followed by the dry one (33.86%) and the rainy one (30.69%) (Fig.5). At Zalau meteorological station on the reference period one can notice the predominance of the dry hot seasons (38%), followed by the normal (34%) and rainy ones (28%). (Fig. 6)

a b Figure 5. The average frequency of the hot semesters on rainfall domains at the level of the region (a) and at the meteorological and rainfall stations (b)

a b Figure 6. The average frequency of the hot semesters on rainfall domains at Zalau on the reference period (a) and compared with the average on the region for the period 1990-2010 (b)

The frequency on groups with risk and free of risk underlines the fact that in the whole studied region the maximum frequency is held by the group free of rainfall risk. (Fig. 7)

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a b Figure 7. The average frequency of the hot semesters with or free of rainfall risk in the Crasna Basin (a) and at the meteorological and rainfall stations (b)

Comparing the frequencies of the two risk groups one can notice the fact that in the most part of the studied region the shares of the risk by excess are equal to those of the semesters with risk by deficiency (19.05%-23.81%). At Borla and Crasna the frequency of the hot semesters with risk by excess is lower than that of the hot semesters with risk by deficiency, while at Simleu Silvaniei the risk by excess has a higher frequency. At the level of the region, the risk induced by the heavy rainfall in the hot semester is less frequent that the risk induced by the absence of rainfall (Figure 5). At Zalau meteorological station the hot semesters free of risk arte the most frequent (66%) but the risk induced by the heavy rainfall is more frequent (20%), than that induced by the absence of rainfall (14%). (Fig. 8)

a b Figure 8. The average frequency of the hot semesters with or free of rainfall risk at Zalau on the reference period (a) and compared with the average on the region for the period 1990-2010 (b)

The cold semester The frequency on value classes of WASP shows the absence of extreme classes and the predominance of normal cases, which at the level of the studied region show a value of 26.92%, lower than that corresponding to the hot semester. 85

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The very rainy cold seasons had low frequency (0%-4.76%) as compared to the moderate rainy (9.52%-23.81%) or little rainy (4.76%-33.33%) ones. At Sarmasag, Meseseni and Simleu the frequency of the moderate rainy cold semesters (9.52%23.81%) overpasses that of the little rainy cases. At the rest of the rainfall stations the situation is reversed. The normal value class has the highest frequency at Simleu Silvaniei (42.86%) and the lowest at Zalau meteorological station (19.05%) and Crasna rainfall station (14.29%). In most of the region the moderate dry cold seasons had higher or equal frequencies (19.05%-23.81%) with the little dry ones (9.52%-19.05%). As an exception, at Banisor, the moderate dry value class has lower frequencies (19.05%) than the little dry value class (23.81%). The very dry value class is absent at all of the rainfall stations. Analyzing the frequency on rainfall domains one can notice the fact that almost in the whole region, the greatest share is held by the dry domain with values between 38.10% (Borla, Starciu, Varsolt, Simleu) and 42.86% (Sarmasg, Banisor) (Table 6). At Meseseni all the rainfall domains have equal frequencies (33.33%), while at Crasna the dry and rainy domains appear with equal frequencies, clearly overpassing the frequency of the normal domain (14.29%). At Zalau meteorological station, the maximum frequency is held by the rainy domain (42.86%), overpassing that of the dry domain (38.10%) and of the normal one (19.06%). At the level of the studied region, the maximum frequency is held by the dry domain (39.15%), followed by the rainy domain (33.86%) and finally by the normal one (26.98%) (Table 6). At Zalau meteorological station one can notice the predominance of the rainy cold seasons (36%), while the normal and dry ones appear with the same frequency (32%). (Fig. 9)

a b Figure 9. The average frequency of the cold semesters on rainfall domains at Zalau on the reference period (a) and compared with the average on the region for the period 1990-2010 (b)

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The frequency on groups with risk and free of risk shows a similar situation with that of the hot semester. In the whole region the maximum frequency is held by the group free of risk with an average frequency of 62.42% and with higher shares at Simleu, Crasna and Banisor (66.67%) and lower at Meseseni and Borla (52.38%). The range of variation of the group free of risk is the same in both semesters (14.29%). Comparing the two groups of risk one can notice the fact that in most of the region the shares of the risk by deficiency (19.05%-28.75%) overpass those corresponding to the risk by excess (9.52%-19.05%). At Zalau and Meseseni the frequency of the semesters with risk by excess is equal with that of the semesters with risk by deficiency (19.05%, respectively 23.81%). At the level of the region the frequency of the group with risk by deficiency (22.75%) overpasses that of the group with risk by excess (16.40%) (Fig. 10).

a b Figure 10. The average frequency of the cold semesters with or free of rainfall risk in the Crasna Basin (a) and at the meteorological and rainfall stations (b)

At Zalau meteorological station the cold seasons free of risk (64%) predominate, followed by those with risk by excess and by deficiency with equal values (18%) (Fig.11).

a b Figure 11. The average frequency of the cold semesters with or free of rainfall risk at Zalau on the reference period (a) and compared with the average on the region for the period 1990-2010 (b)

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REFERENCES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Croitoru, Adina- Eliza (2006), Excesul de precipitaii din Depresiunea Transilvaniei, Edit. Casa Crii de tiin, Cluj-Napoca. Croitoru, Adina- Eliza, Sorocovschi, V., Moldovan, F. (2002), Perioadele execdentare i deficitare pluviometric n Depresiunea Transilvaniei, n volumul Lucrrile Seminarului Geografic Dimitrie Cantemir, nr.21-22, 2000-2001, Iai. Dragot, Carmen-Sofia (2006), Precipitaiile excedentare n Romnia, Edit. Academiei Romne. Sorocovschi, V.(2005), Percepia riscurilor induse de inundaii.Rezultatul unui sondaj de opinie desfurat n nordul Cmpiei Transilvaniei, SUBB, Geogr., L, 1, ClujNapoca. Sorocovschi, V., Mac, I. (2004), Percepia environmental i rspun-surile umane fa de risc, Riscuri i catastrofe, , n vol.Riscuri i catastrofe, Editor V.Sorocovschi, Nr. 1, Editura Casa Crii de tiin, Sorocovschi, V., Moldovan, F., Croitoru, Adina-Eliza (2001), Les priodes pluviomtriques excedentaires et les risques celles-ci gnrent dans la Dpression de la Transylvanie, n Climat et Environnement. Sorocovschi, V., Moldovan, F., Croitoru, Adina-Eliza (2002), Perioade excedentare pluviometric n Depresiunea Transilvaniei, SUBB, Geogr., 2, XLVII, Cluj-Napoca.

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RISCURI I CATASTROFE, NR. XII, VOL. 12, NR. 1/2013

THE EXCESS OF HUMIDITY AND ITS ASSOCIATED RISKS IN THE REGHIN HILLS
J. SZILGYI1, I.A.IRIMU1
Abstract. - The excess of humidity and its associated risks in the Reghin Hills. Through its persistence, the excess of humidity can produce a series of natural risks, such as geomorphological, pedological, hydrological and also ecological, each category having a negative impact on the social and economical life.In this paper the focus relies on the analysis of the rain-fall conditions of the Reghin Hills, with a special view on the periods of excess of humidity. For such a purpose we realized an analysis of the main parameters which define the excess of humidity (annual, season and monthly variations in the quantity of rain-fall, the degree of insurance in the different quantities of rain-fall), having as a basis the data recorded between 1978-2008 in the Trgu-Mure, Eremitu and Gurghiu stations. The establishing of the rain-fall nature for each year, season and month was realized by counting the Standardized Rain-Fall Anomaly. Keywords: rainfall quantity, humidity excess, natural risks, vulnerability.

1. Introduction
Apparition of pluviometric exceeding periods is the consequence of synoptic situations characterized by low pressure areas that persist over time. The high rainfall quantities from our area that appear in warm season are the result of more intense frontal activities generated by the advection of oceanic moist air masses and by thermal convections. The presence of Oriental Carpathians orographic barrier determines an ascending movement of air masses, their adiabatic cooling and water vapors condensation. These processes generate heavy rainfall in the eastern part of the study area. High rainfall quantities period from the cold season is determined by cyclonic activity in Mediterranean sector that carries through mobile cyclones warm moist air masses to our country, increasing the appearance of heavy rainfall and thick snow layer, inducing risk situations.

Babe-Bolyai University , Faculty of Geography, 400006, Cluj Napoca, Romania, e-mail: jozsefszilagyi@yahoo.com., irimus@geografie.ubbcluj.ro.

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To determine pluviometric exceeding periods, at first we analyzed the main parameters that define pluviometric regime (annual, seasonal, monthly variations and deviation, assurance degree for various amounts of precipitation); to establish each year and month pluviometric data, we calculated the Precipitation Standard Anomaly (PSA), using data from the pluviomeric regime of the years 1978 2008 from Trgu Mure (=4632', =2432,H =308m), Eremitu ( = 4640', =2500,H =510m) and Gurghiu stations ( = 4646', =2451, H =415m).

2. Annual variations of rainfall quantities


High territorial variations of annual average rainfall quantities appear on a relative small part of our area. We remark an increase of annual average rainfall quantities from Mure Corridor to the main submontane area according to the morphometric relief change. In the western part of the area appear annual average rainfall precipitations of 500 600 mm (Trgu Mure), and in the eastern extreme part, near the mountains, the precipitations reach 700 900 mm (Gurghiu).

Fig. 1. Annual average rainfall quantities(1978 2008).

Annual rainfall quantity varies from a year to another, with negative and positive deviations from the multiannual average. Hence, the highest annual rainfall quantity of 1216 mm appeared in 2001 at Eremitu Station, what represents a 294,9 mm deviation from the multiannual average of 921,3 mm; the lowest value was of 384 mm in 1987 at Trgu Mure Station, with 210,6 mm less than the multiannual average. The advantage of analyzing gliding average from annual rainfall sums consists in conserving the period and trend of dynamic series, contributing to 90

THE EXCESS OF HUMIDITY AND ITS ASSOCIATED RISKS IN THE REGHIN HILLS

highlighting maximum and minimum values, even though they attenuate the amplitude of cyclic, periodical and accidental oscillations (Frca I., 1988). The evolution of gliding averages for a period of 10 years that are lead with a year, brings forward the high rainfall values from Reghin Hills for the years 1991-2000,1992-2001, 1993-2002, 1994-2003, 1995-2004, 1996-2005, 19972006,1998-2007; in these years appeared rainfall quantities with even 50 mm/year higher than the multiannual average. The trend line presents a growth of rainfall quantities in these periods.

Fig. 2. Gliding averages of annual rainfall sums for a period of 10 years that are lead with a year at Trgu Mure Station (1978-2008).

Fig. 3. Gliding averages of annual rainfall sums for a period of 10 years that are lead with a year at Eremitu Station (1978-2008).

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Analyzing annual values variation of Rainfall Standard Anomaly we see that between 1978 2008, in most cases, the RSA index had values between -1,0 1,0, indicating the prevalence of rainfall normal years, with 67,8% at Trgu Mure and Gurghiu, and 74,2% at Eremitu Station. The years with a rainfall excess (RSA > 1,0) have a frequence of 12,9 19,3%; the lowest values (RSA < -1,0) have a frequence of 5 7 %.

Fig.4. Annual variation of RSA values

Fig.5. Frequency of exceeding rainfall years with different caractheristics according to RSA

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Summing the frequency of rainfall exceeding years with different characteristics, we observe a higher frequency of rainy years 47,4%, followed by years with heavy rains 36,8%, and exceeding rain years 15,8%.

3. Monthly and seasonal variations of rainfall quantities


After analyzing monthly values of rainfall quantities, we observe that there are present important differences from a month to another. The highest rainfall quantities appear in the years warm season, from April to September, with 61 68,2% from the annual rainfall quantities. Annual rainfall regime presents two maximums and two minimums. The main maximum appears in June, caused by intense cyclonic activity and convective movements determined by temperature rise; the highest rainfall quantities have an average of 81,1 108,1 mm, with a month maximum of 243,4 mm in 1985 at Eremitu Station. The secondary maximum appears in December, caused by moist air advection from North Atlantic area and by frontal activities at the contact of different thermal characteristics and origins air masses; it generates high cloudiness and heavy rainfall. Hence, the December multiannual monthly average quantity varies between 48,8 66,4 mm; maximum monthly quantity of 169,5 mm appeared in 1999 at Eremitu Station.

Fig.6. Monthly average rainfall quantity

The main minimum appears in February, with a monthly multiannual average of 29,5 48,9 mm; the lowest value, of 3,4 mm, appeared in 1994 at Trgu Mure Station. The secondary minimum appears in November, with a monthly multiannual average of 31,8 60,9 mm; the lowest value, of 5,5 mm, appeared in 93

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1986 at Trgu Mure Station. After analyzing the monthly variation of rainfall monthly multiannual averages, we observe a considerable rainfall growth during March June months, giving our territory a higher vulnerability to moisture excess phenomena and processes. The highest rainfall quantity growth is recorded in March April (19,5 22,4 mm), and the strongest decrease appears between July August (-11,3 mm and -20,1 mm). The frequency and assurance degree of certain rainfall quantities evidence was made using the number of cases with different rainfall quantities, that were grouped into 8 representative value classes (from 25 to 25 mm). In winter months, the highest frequency has the rainfalls of 0,1 25 mm, with a frequency of 41,9% in December, 51,6% in January and 61,2% at Trgu Mure Station. Spring months present a higher frequency of rainfall quantities between 50,1 75 mm and 75,1 100 mm. In June, the highest frequency is that belonging to rainfall quantities of 50,1 75 mm and 75,1 100 mm, with 32,2%, respectively 25,8%; the pluviometric individuality of this month is given by the high frequency of rainfall above 100 mm. The rainfall quantities of 100,1 125 mm have a frequency of 13%, those between 125,1 150 mm 3,2%, and those above 150,1 mm 6,4%. In July, although the rainfall quantities are lower than those from June, still appears a high frequency of values between 75,1100 mm 29%, 100,1125 mm 16,1% and 125,1-150 m 9,6%. Rainfall quantities above 150 mm have one frequency, that represents 3,2% and the lowest appearance probability 3,2. Autumn months present a high frequency of rainfalls values between 0,125 mm, with 13% in September, 38,7% in October and 41,9% in November; those between 25,1-50 mm share 41,9% in September, 25,8% in October and 48,3% in November. Rainfall quantities between 50,1-75% have a frequency of 22,5% in September October and 9,6% in November. After comparing the results received from Trgu Mure meteorological Station and Gurghiu and Eremitu pluviometric Station data analysis, is brought forward the frequency difference of characteristic rainfall quantities for each month between the western and eastern part of our area. So, Gurghiu and Eremitu pluviometric stations after comparing with Trgu Mure Station, because of mountain influence, present a higher frequency for group values above 100 mm, thus explaining the higher month rainfall quantities in the sub mountain area. After summing the characteristic pluviometric exceeding values for each month and every analyzed station, for the years 1978-2008, we observe that most rainy cases appeared in April - 17 cases (10,8%), February, June and September have 13 (8,2%), March, August and October 12 (7,6%), May and December 11 cases (7,0%).

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>150

125,1-150

100,1-125

75,1-100

50,1-75

25,1-50

0-25

<0,1

100% 90% 80% 70% Asigurarea 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII

Fig.7. Monthly rainfall frequency and assurence degree at Trgu Mure


>150 125,1-150 100,1-125 75,1-100 50,1-75 25,1-50 0-25 <0

100% 90% 80% 70% Asigurarea % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII

Fig. 8. Monthly rainfall frequency and assurence degree at Eremitu Station


>150 125,1-150 100,1-125 75,1-100 50,1-75 25,1-50 0-25 <0

100% 90% 80% 70% Asigurarea % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII

Fig. 9. Monthly rainfall frequency and assurence degree at Gurghiu Station

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Analyzing the frequency of pluviometric exceeding months (Table 1), we observe a higher frequency for rainy periods (5,1-7,2%), followed by very rainy ones (3,0-6,5%), excessively rainy ones (0,5-2,7%) and exceptionally rainy ones (1,1-2,2%).
Normal Deviation % Station TG. MURE EREMITU GURGHIU -1,01,0 Nr. caz 277 282 275 % 74,5 75,8 73,9 Rainy 1,11,5 Nr. caz 19 19 26 % 5,1 5,1 7,0 Very rainy 1,52,0 Nr. caz 18 24 15 % 4,8 6,5 4,0 Excessively rainy 2,02,5 Nr. caz 10 2 6 % 2,7 0,5 1,6 Nr. caz 6 8 4 Exceptionally rainy >2,5 % 1,6 2,2 1,1

Table 1. The frequence of exceeding rainfall months cu different cararctheristics according to RSA

From the whole four seasons, the highest frequencies of exceeding pluviometric periods appear in spring and summer 25% from all cases, followed by autumn 24,8% and winter 24,2%. Summing the frequencies of exceeding pluviometric periods with different characteristics by season, we observe more rainy periods during spring (45%), summer (50%) and winter (42,1%), and very rainy periods during autumn (56,4%). Excessively rainy and exceptionally rainy periods appear especially during spring 10%, determining a higher land vulnerability in this season for humidity excess associated risks and processes.

Fig.10. Frequency of exceeding rainfall periods with different characteristics on seasons

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THE EXCESS OF HUMIDITY AND ITS ASSOCIATED RISKS IN THE REGHIN HILLS

4. Humidity excess associated risks


The presence of humidity excess can generate some natural risks like: geomorphologic, hydric, pedological and ecological ones, with a negative impact over social and economical life: Geomorphologic risks and pedological ones associated with pluviometric excess effect land quality and morphology, accelerating linear and areolar erosion processes; their consequences are high material evacuation and building a degraded landscape through new torrent system (ravines, gullies, torrential organisms); also, long heavy rainfall periods can trigger landslides; washing of a great soil quantity from steep slopes; salt dissolution and washing from vertical during compaction processes; soil degradation through gleying processes etc.. Hydric risks are connected with surface water level and discharge growth that can generate high waters and floods; underground water level rise over the topographic surface level brings soil saturation with water and so salt dissolution and soil desalinization. Ecological risks are associated with natural and human risks and are hard to define. They are represented by geographic landscape deterioration: landslides, lake silting, river bed alluviation, destruction or modification of local vegetation (short term), emergence of new plants (neobiota), organical and chemical water and land pollution, etc.. Antrophic and technical risks are associated with pluviometric excess and floods; they are felt by the human society through the effects they have over rural and urban communities, economical constructions, electric and telecommunication networks; reduction of industrial production or disruption of some economical unities functions, difficulties in supplying with stocks or electric energy; distruction of some big agricultural land, etc.. Social risks are determined by the goods destructions, danger of epidemics, peoples evacuations from affected areas, panic around people, human casualties etc..

Conclusions
After analyzing the deviation values for rainfall annual average quantities from the multiannual average, we can observe that the values and frequency of positive deviation grow from west to east in our study area. Hence, the frequency of years with positive deviation has a value of 48,4% (Trgu Mure) in the western part, and 54,9% (Eremitu) and 51,7% (Gurghiu) in the eastern part. The highest positive deviation values from the annual average that appear in pluviometri exceed years have situate between +100 and +310 mm/year, with a 97

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maximum of +309,8 mm/year (2007) at Gurghiu Station, +294,4 mm/year (2001) at Eremitu Station and +267,7 mm/year (2005) at Trgu Mure Station. The number of years with positive deviation is 2-3 years, maximum values appeared between 2004-2008, with 5 years at Trgu Mure Station and 4 years for Eremitu and Gurghiu Stations. After analyzing the frequency of maximum values months for rainfall quantities, the months with the heaviest rainfall were May, June and July, with a frequency of 25,8% cases, and August with 22,5% cases; these months have the highest participation into the total annual rainfall quantity and the highest assurance degree, exceeding 50 mm.

REFERENCES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. Arma, Iuliana (2008), Percepia riscurilor naturale: cutremure, inundatii, alunecri, Edit.Universitii din Bucureti. Bilaco, t.,(2008), Implementarea GIS n modelarea viiturilor de versant, Edit. Crii de tiin, Cluj-Napoca. Bogdan, Octavia, Niculescu, Elena, (1999), Riscurile climatice din Romnia, Edit. Academic, Bucureti Croitoru, Adina-Eliza, (2003), Fenomene climatice de risc caiet de lucrri practice, Edit. Nereamia Napocae, Cluj-Napoca. Croitoru, Adina-Eliza, (2006), Excesul de precipitaii din Depresiunea Transilvaniei, Ed. Casa Crii de tiin, Cluj-Napoca. Frca., I. (1988), Msurtori i calcule de meteorologie, partea II, Metodologia prelucrrii i interpretrii datelor climatice, Cluj Napoca. Holobc, I. (2010), Studiul secetelor din Transilvania, Ed. Presa Universitar Clujean. Irimus, I.A.(2006), Hazarde i riscuri asociate proceselor geomorfologice n aria cutelor diapire din Depresiunea Transilvaniei, Ed. Casa Crii de tiin, Cluj-Napoca. *** Tabele meteorologice TM-11 (intervalul 1978-2008)

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RISCURI I CATASTROFE, NR. XII, VOL. 12, NR. 1/2013

EXTREME HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA ON THE HYDROGRAPHICAL BASIN OF TIMI RIVER (1965-2009)


ANDREEA MIHAELA ARBA1
Abstract. - Extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena on the hydrographical basin of Timi river (1965-2009). The study of extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena or of the climatic and hydrological risks involve a wide range of issues, which should start with the climatic and hydrological data and should end with the monitoring of the risk factors, in order to pass from the diagnosis analysis to the prognosis one. We intended to draw up such a comprehensive study as well because it combines the classical methodology (field research, deductive, inductive, historical methods) with the specific methodology of the Geographical Informational Systems (G.I.S.). To analyse the hydro-meteorological phenomena on the basin, we used the climatic and hydrological data collected on the field from 6 meteorological stations and from 5 hydrometric stations, during a common period of 45 years (1965-2009). The extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena which were identified on the basin and which were analysed in the study herein are: the extreme temperatures, the periods with pluviometric surplus, the heavy rains, the drought and dryness phenomena, as well as the floods. Key words: extreme hydro-meteorological hydrological risks, Timi river basin. phenomena, climatic risks,

1. Introduction
The concept of extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena may be confused with the concept of hazard, taking into account that these extreme hydrometeorological phenomena occur unexpectedly, cannot be predicted and are responsible for a series of rapid transformations that occur in the relief morphology. The specialty literature mentions the hazards as a potential source of danger, being associated with the natural or anthropogenic processes and phenomena that can affect the quality of the environment and can cause material or human losses (Zvoianu, et. al., 1994, Grecu, Florina, 2004, Arma, 2005).
1

West University of Timioara, Faculty of Chemistry, Biology and Geography, Department of Geography, Timioara, Romania, e-mail: arba_andreea@yahoo.com

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The hydro-climatic hazards or the extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena are part of the exogenetic hazards category, where the types of hazards have been grouped according to the systemic element whose dynamic induces the manifestation of the hazard, but also according to the agent causing and maintaining it (Stng, 2007, p. 32). The extreme hydro-meteorological category includes: extreme temperatures;periods with pluviometric surplus; heavy rains;drought and dryness phenomena; storms, tornadoes and cyclones; other phenomena with special impact (hoar-frost, rime, glaze, fog, etc.); floods (Stng, 2007, pp. 36-40). All these phenomena have a very important role in the current shaping of the relief on the hydrographical basin, because these may accelerate a series of geomorphological processes (ravining, landslides, river bed changes, etc.) that may have consequences on the morphology and the morphometry of the studied basin, during long periods of time. Timi river, the main hydrographical artery from the western part of Romania, springs from Semenic Mountains, from approximately 1135 m altitude, collecting its waters from the mountainous area represented by: Banat Mountains, arcu Mountains, Godeanu Mountains and Poiana Rusc Mountains, as well as the piedmont hills of Lugoj and Pogni, summing up a total surface of the hydrographical basin in our country of 5,795 km2, meaning approximately 2.44 % of the territory (fig. 1.) (Munteanu, Rodica, Maria, 1998, p. 9).

Fig. 1. The map of the hydrographical basin of Timi river.

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2. Methodology In order to analyse the extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena on the hydrographical basin of Timi river, we collected climatic data (temperature, precipitations and heavy rains) and hydrological data (water discharge: minimum, maximum and average), from 6 meteorological stations (Semenic, arcu, Cuntu, Caransebe, Lugoj and Banloc) and from 5 hydrometric stations on Timi river (Teregova, Sadova, Caransebe, Lugoj and ag), during a common period of 45 years, from 1965 until 2009 (fig. 1). These data were necessary to shape a general image related to the general climate and hydrological features of the basin, but also to correctly interpret the extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena, such as: extreme temperatures, periods with pluviometric surplus, heavy rains, drought and dryness phenomena, as well as floods. So we used several statistical methods for processing and interpreting data, for: calculating average values, identify the extreme values (absolute minimum and absolute maximum), making correlations between meteorological and hydrological parameters, calculating deviations, etc. 3. Results The types of hazards, which classify in the extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena category, may be classified in several categories, according to the factors triggering their occurrence, as it may be understood from the denomination of these phenomena. These may be grouped in two large categories, as follows: extreme climatic phenomena and extreme hydrological phenomena. The extreme climatic phenomena from the Timi river basin are represented by: extreme temperatures, periods with pluviometric surplus, heavy rains, drought and dryness periods, storms, cyclones and other special impact phenomena (hoar-frost, rime, glaze, fog, etc.). Most of the times, the extreme variations of the meteorological phenomena, especially those of the air temperature and the precipitation quantity, are the basis of the unbalances occurred in the hydro-meteorological conditions, triggering the drought periods, affecting especially the agriculture, or the rainy periods, affecting the flows and producing floods, with serious consequences on the environment and the economy. The analysis of extreme temperatures, of the absolute maximums as well as the absolute minimums, is very important because it shows the actual limits between which the air temperature ranges on the basin. Generally, the absolute maximum temperatures, recorded in the hydrographical basin of Timi river, are the result of the anticyclone conditions and 101

ANDREEA MIHAELA ARBA

the sunny weather and drought phenomenon predominance, determined by invasions of tropical heat, which trigger high positive deviations of the air temperature compared to the normal one, many times with a unique or climatic record feature. If we associate reduced precipitation quantities to these high temperatures, then the essential conditions for the occurrence of drought and dryness phenomena are fulfilled, constituting an important climatic risk for the analysed area (Stanciu, Eugenia, 2002, p. 76). The certain occurrence interval of these maximum temperature values during the year is the interval ranging between 1 May and 15 September, and the highest frequency of their occurrence is recorded in the months of July and August. The high values of the air temperature, especially the absolute maximum values may cause associated risk phenomena during the hot air period, such as: heavy rains, hail storms, etc., depending on the convection intensity, having a special impact on the environment and the human society. The highest values of the absolute maximum temperature (1960-1999) were recorded in July of 1988 at 3 of the 6 meteorological stations studied (39 C at Lugoj, 38.7 C at Banloc, and 28.8 C at Cuntu), and at the other 3 stations in: July 1972 at arcu (21 C), August 1981 at Semenic (27.5 C) and August 1994 at Caransebe (38.2 C) (table 1).
Table 1. The extreme values of air temperature at the meteorological stations from the basin (1960-1999). Meteorological Absolute Date of Absolute Date of station maximum (C) occurrence minimum (C) occurrence arcu 21,0 17.07.1972 -34,4 03.01.1979 Cuntu 28,8 06.07.1988 -24,4 14.02.1985 Semenic 27,5 03.08.1981 -24,5 17.01.1963 Caransebe 38,2 11.08.1994 -26,8 25.01.1963 Lugoj 39,0 06.07.1988 -33,6 24.01.1963 Banloc 38,7 06.07.1988 -31,8 24.01.1963
Source: Stanciu, Eugenia, 2002.

The minimum absolute values of air temperature occur in anticyclone conditions, when the East-European anticyclone ridge extends over Central and South-East Europe (Stanciu, Eugenia, 2002, p. 76), as well as by the negative thermal singularities and the cold waves that carry the polar air and the Arctic continental air from Greenland or from the Euro-Asian continent (the Greenland anticyclone and the East-European cyclone, rarely the Siberian cyclone) (Bogdan, Octavia, Niculescu, Elena, 1999, p. 30). The possible interval of minimum temperature occurrence during the year is the one ranging between 1 December and 1 March, and the highest frequency of 102

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these phenomena is recorded in January, being considered the coldest month of the year in the hydrographical basin studied. The reduced values of air temperature (the absolute minimum temperatures and the seasonal or monthly deviations) may have a negative impact, under various forms, from the negative effects on agriculture, caused by the late spring frosts or the early autumn frosts, causing the destruction of plants or of the cultures, up to the negative effects on the population, caused by the high thermal variations within a short interval, with the occurrence of risks for persons suffering from cardiovascular disorders or of respiratory viroses. The highest values of absolute minimum temperature (1960-1999) were recorded in January of 1963 at 4 of the 6 meteorological stations studied (-24.5 C at Semenic, -26.8 C at Caransebe, -33.6 C at Lugoj and -31.8 C at Banloc), and at the other 2 stations in: January 1979 at arcu (-34.4 C) and February 1985 at Cuntu (-24.4 C) (table 1). The analysis of the values referring to the absolute extreme interval reveals the fact that its value decreases as the altitude increases. Thus, taking into account the period 1960-1999, the absolute extreme interval varies, in the field area, between 74 C at Banloc and 72.6 C at Lugoj, and, in the mountainous area, between 52 C at Semenic and 55.4 C at arcu. All these values, both maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as the absolute extreme intervals, confirm the fact that the hydrographical basin of Timi river has a moderate climate feature, with oceanic influences from the West of the continent and Submediterranean from the South-West, with small variations, which have an extreme feature from one period to another, and with a quite reduced frequency. The periods with pluviometric surplus are the consequence of the occurrence and the persistence of synoptic situations characterised by the predominance of some low-pressure areas, triggering the occurrence of humidity surplus (Bogdan, Octavia, Niculescu, Elena, 1999, quoted by Moldovan, 2003, p. 149). The extremely rich atmospheric precipitations, produced on the basin over time, during the start period of monitoring the rivers and up to the present, have generated the overflow of Timi river and its main tributaries, during several years, famous for the significant floods that have affected this area. The especially rainy years, which triggered extreme hydrological phenomena within this hydrographical space, such as floods, were: 1912, 1940, 1955, 1966, 1970, 1975, 1978, 1980, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997 and 2005. For the period of 45 years, taken into account (1965-2009) to draw up the study herein, we may identify 8 extremely rainy years at all the meteorological stations from the basin, representing 17.8% of the total number of years studied. 103

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In order to identify the extremely rainy years and the periods with pluviometric surplus from the analysed period, firstly we calculated and, then, we interpreted the values of the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) for the 45 years of the studied period (1965-2009), at all the meteorological stations on the basin, by using statistical methods. Thus, the SPI values resulted from each station helped us identify 9 years with a very high pluviometric surplus: 1966, 1968, 1969, 1970, 1974, 1980, 1999, 2005 and 2007. The frequency of the years with different SPI values are described in table 2, showing that the frequency values vary significantly, the highest value of 22.2% being recorded at the field meteorological stations (Lugoj and Banloc), and the lowest values at the Caransebe meteorological station (15.5%). Moreover, the only meteorological station where the frequency of the years with pluviometric surplus (22.22%) exceeds the pluviometric defective years (13.3%) is the Banloc station. A reason could be the fact that it is located in the close proximity of the western extremity of the basin, closer to the oceanic influences from the west, than the other stations.
Table 2. The frequency of years with pluviometric surplus, according to the SPI values (1965-2009)
Meteor. station arcu Cuntu Semenic Caransebe Lugoj Banloc Deficit ISP: -1 9 (20 %) 9 (20 %) 9 (20 %) 8 (17,8 %) 10 (22,2 %) 6 (13,3 %) Normal ISP: -0,99 0,99 28 (62,2 %) 28 (62,2 %) 28 (62,2 %) 30 (66,7 %) 25 (55,6 %) 29 (64,5 %) Moderately humid SPI: 1 .. 1,49 5 (11,2 %) 4 (8,9 %) 4 (8,9 %) 2 (4,4 %) 6 (13,3 %) 8 (17,8 %) Very humid SPI: 1,5 1,99 2 (4,4 %) 4 (8,9 %) 2 (4,4 %) 4 (8,9 %) 2 (4,4 %) Extremely humid SPI: 2 1 (2,2 %) 2 (4,4 %) 1 (2,2 %) 2 (4,4 %) 2 (4,4 %) Total surplus 8 (17,8 %) 8 (17,8 %) 8 (17,8 %) 7 (15,5 %) 10 (22,2 %) 10 (22,2 %)

Source: Data processed from the Archive of the Regional Meteorological Centre (R.M.C.) Banat-Criana, Timioara

The heavy rains are responsible for the discharge in a very short time of large quantities of water, exceeding the infiltration and transportation capacity, as well as determining the occurrence of the humidity surplus, the erosion of soils and the formation of floods. These rains are the result of the uneven heating of the terrestrial surface and may have a frontal nature, when they are caused by the activity of oceanic and Mediterranean cyclones, especially of those with a retrograde nature, and a local nature, when they are caused by the thermodynamic convection (Stanciu, Eugenia, 2005, p. 161). 104

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The identification of possible heavy rains fallen at various meteorological stations may be performed by analysing the monthly and annual maximum quantities of precipitations recorded at the meteorological stations on the basin. In the period analysed (1965-2009), the maximum precipitation quantities, the monthly and annual ones, from each meteorological station, recorded significant variations, as one may notice from the analysis of table 3. During the studied period, the largest annual quantity of precipitations, fallen on the entire basin, was recorded at the Semenic meteorological station, in 1966 and was of 1683.3 mm.
Table 3. The annual and monthly maximum extreme quantities of precipitations recorded at the stations on the basin (1965-2009).
Meteorol. station arcu Cuntu Semenic Caransebe Lugoj Banloc I 231,8 (1966) 151,3 (1976) 175,3 (1976) 149,6 (1976) 115,1 (1987) 88,5 (1987) II 223,7 (1999) 214,6 (1999) 171,5 (1966) 90,1 (1985) 115,9 (1999) 108,5 (1978) III 117,0 (1966) 130,9 (2005) 135,8 (2009) 117,3 (2008) 96,6 (1988) 74,2 (1993) IV 138,1 (1965) 196,6 (2005) 218,2 (1966) 200,6 (2005) 201,2 (2005) 110,0 (2001) V 158,0 (1989) 292,8 (1966) 303,9 (1966) 219,4 (2009) 187,8 (1975) 205,6 (1987) Month (year) VI VII 409,4 238,8 (1969) (1966) 399,9 314,0 (1965) (1980) 552,2 310,2 (1969) (1970) 188,2 275,1 (1990) (1980) 260,6 154,2 (1969) (1999) 208,9 273,9 (1979) (1999) VIII 317,7 (2005) 320,4 (2006) 335,1 (1968) 252,2 (2006) 136,1 (2005) 253,9 (2005) IX 215,3 (2001) 255,7 (1978) 360,4 (2001) 141,8 (1968) 121,6 (1978) 155,5 (2001) X 131,2 (1981) 199,1 (2003) 257,7 (1974) 129,5 (1981) 193,5 (1974) 180,0 (1974) XI 131,5 (2007) 190,4 (2004) 181,0 (2009) 141,2 (2004) 127,4 (2004) 126,0 (2004) XII 157,0 (2005) 152,3 (1965) 166,4 (1999) 145,9 (1967) 149,9 (1999) 171,7 (1969) Annual 1680,5 (1966) 1609,9 (1974) 1683,3 (1966) 1199,2 (2005) 991,5 (1999) 915,2 (2005)

Source: Data processed from the Archive of the Regional Meteorological Centre (R.M.C.) Banat-Criana, Timioara

Due to the fact that the heavy rains may have a special influence on the environment, it is very important to take into account in their analysis the climate parameters that size them, among which, according to the Hellman criterion, we may include: the average intensity, the total duration, as well as the quantity of water fallen (Stanciu, Eugenia, 2005, p. 162). From the analysis of the heavy rains occurred on the basin, during a period of 30 years (1970-1999), we found that, almost every year, most of the stations record heavy rains, and that the year with the most frequent heavy rains recorded was 1998 (3 heavy rains at Semenic and 2 at Banloc), characterised by a pronounced instability. Other years with numerous heavy rains were: 1982, 1977, 1990 and 1991. For the period 1970-1999, the frequency of heavy rains was the following at all the stations on the basin: 18 cases at Banloc, 15 cases at Semenic, but also at Caransebe, 11 cases at Lugoj and 2 cases at Cuntu (Stanciu, Eugenia, 2002, p. 268). The most frequent heavy rains on the hydrographical basin of Timi river were recorded during summer, in the following months: June, July and August, rarely in autumn, especially in September, like the case of the heavy rain on 11 September 1982, at the Banloc meteorological station. 105

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The periods with pluviometric surplus and the abundant precipitations are responsible for triggering several risk phenomena with an impact on the natural environment, such as: the erosion of the slopes, the mud sliding, the movement of large quantities of deposits, floods, etc., reason for which the analysis of such extreme phenomena is very important (Stanciu, Eugenia, 2005, p. 135). The drought and dryness phenomena are the most complex climate phenomena, because these are caused by several main factors, among which: the absence of atmospheric precipitations, the reduced water reserve from the soil accessible to plants, the air humidity and temperature, the intense evaporation, the wind speed, etc. (Bogdan, Octavia, Niculescu, Elena, 1999, p. 115). The pluviometric defective periods are those time intervals characterised by the lack or the drastic decrease of the precipitation quantities, which may trigger the risky climatic phenomenon, called drought, with a negative impact on human lives (Bryant, 1991, quoted by Moldovan, 2003, p. 152). Among the multitude of factors that lead to the setting of these phenomena, the most important is the absence of atmospheric precipitations, which are due to the main anticyclone weather, determined by the predominance of the stationary baric anticyclone formations, with a large extension in Europe, influencing even the entire territory of Romania (Bogdan, Octavia, Niculescu, Elena, 1999, p. 116). According to the evolutional phases of the sections and according to the water flow, we may differentiate several types of drought: the atmospheric drought, the paedological drought, the underground drought, the hydrological drought (potamological) and the hydraulic drought (Lambert and collab., 1990, quoted by Moldovan, 2003, p. 153). From the climatic interpretation of droughts, we understand that the dry period is characterised by the absence of precipitations for 5 consecutive days, or by their presence, but in a very low quantity, without managing to exceed the daily average, and the dry period is determined by reduced quantities of precipitations, without managing to exceed 10.1 mm for 14 consecutive days during the cold season or for at least 10 consecutive days during the hot season (Donciu, 1928, quoted by Stanciu, Eugenia, 2002, p. 262). The atmospheric drought represents a period with a significant deficit of precipitations or characterised by their total absence, in areas where normally this is not characteristic feature. Thus, it is directly related to the precipitation and temperatures regime, which recorded irregular high variations at each meteorological station on the hydrographical basin of Timi river, as mentioned before. For the period of 45 years, taken into account to draw up the study herein, we may identify 12 extremely pluviometric defective years at all the meteorological stations on the basin, representing 26.7 % of the total number of years studied. These years are: 1973, 1982, 1983, 1984, 1985, 1986, 1988, 1990, 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994 and 2000. 106

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Regarding the frequency of pluviometric defective years, recorded at each meteorological station, from table 4, we notice that the largest frequency is recorded at the meteorological station from Lugoj, with 10 years (22.2 %), from the total of 45 years analysed, followed by the mountainous stations (arcu, Cuntu, and Semenic) with 9 pluviometric defective years (20 %), then a frequency of 8 years (17.8 %), recorded at the station at Caransebe, and, finally, the smallest frequency, recorded in 6 cases, (13.3 %), the Banloc station, located at the lowest altitude. During the studied period, the smallest annual quantity of precipitations, fallen on the entire basin, was recorded at the Banloc meteorological station, in 2000 and was of 297.3 mm. The fact that the Banloc meteorological station has a reduced frequency regarding the number of pluviometric defective years is explained through its position, in the western extremity of the basin, much more exposed to the oceanic masses of air, coming from the west side of the continent, than the other meteorological stations from the basin.
Table 4. The frequency of pluviometric defective years, according to the SPI values (1965-2009)
Meteor. station arcu Cuntu Semenic Caransebe Lugoj Banloc Very Moderately Extremely droughty droughty droughty SPI: -1,5 - SPI: -1 SPI: -2 1,99 1,49 8 (17,8 %) 5 (11,1 %) 6 (13,3 %) 7 (15,6 %) 8 (17,8 %) 4 (8,9 %) 1 (2,2 %) 4 (8,9 %) 1 (2,2 %) 2 (4,4 %) 1 (2,2 %) 2 (4,4 %) 1 (2,2 %) 1 (2,2 %) Total deficit 9 (20 %) 9 (20 %) 9 (20 %) Normal SPI: -0,99 0,99 Surplus SPI: 1 8 (17,8 %) 8 (17,8 %) 8 (17,8 %) 7 (15,5 %) 10 (22,2 %) 10 (22,2 %)

28 (62,2 %) 28 (62,2 %) 28 (62,2 %) 8 (17,8 %) 30 (66,7 %) 10 (22,2 %) 25 (55,6 %) 6 (13,3 %) 29 (64,5 %)

Source: Data processed from the Archive of the Regional Meteorological Centre (R.M.C.) Banat-Criana, Timioara

During the year, the largest pluviometric deficit is recorded in spring, in March and April, in autumn, especially in September and, in summer, in July and August. Certain months with a pluviometric deficit characterised at the same time several meteorological stations, like the months of April of 2007 and December of 1972, meaning that these climatic records did not have a local feature, but they were extended to the entire surface of the basin. The western region of the country, where the hydrographical basin of Timi river is located, dominated by moderate oceanic influences, records a relatively low frequency, duration and intensity of the drought and dryness phenomena, compared to other parts of the country. However, the years when these phenomena occur, having a climatic record feature, should not be neglected, because they represent very important climatic risks, especially for agriculture. 107

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The category of extreme hydrological phenomena is represented by the hydrological drought and floods, but not entirely, because these phenomena may often be determined by certain climatic factors as well. For instance, although the floods are elements of the water dynamic, the agent that regulates this dynamic is, most of the times, of climatic origin (heavy precipitations or high temperatures determine the sudden melting of snows). The correct analysis of the extreme hydrological phenomena means considering the hydrological factors, as well as the climatic ones, which may trigger and influence the occurrence of these phenomena. The hydrological drought is determined by the climatic abnormalities, which manifest as climatic changes in small areas, especially determined by the increase in temperature around the world. The drought may be defined as an abnormal period of dry weather, persisting for a long time in order to produce serious hydrological unbalances or as a period with a soil humidity deficit with a requirement of insufficient water for plants, animals and people. The supplies with surface and underground waters are under the normal average. Due to the fact that the atmospheric drought was analysed before in the section related to the extreme climatic phenomena, triggered by a series of factors that are identical with the ones triggering the hydrological drought, we shall not discuss this type of drought in the current section. Floods represent extreme hydrological phenomena generated by high waters or floods. The knowledge of flood genesis and production mechanisms offers the possibility of preventing and fighting the effects caused by these extreme phenomena. The floods involve the temporary coverage with water of a land section as a consequence of the water level increase of a river, a lake or another mass of water. From a hydrological point of view, a flood can represent any water level increase or a flow over a level exceeding the minor river bed banks, however, according to some people, the term is used in a wrong way and it is confused with the one of flash floods (Mustea, quoted by Stng, 2007, p. 39). As a consequence of a wide range of relief forms comprised on the hydrographical basin of Timi and determining a classification of the climatic parameters, as well as the result of the basin's exposure to the advection of the western, northern and south-western masses of air, in the area, high waters and flash floods occur during the whole year. The majority of the floods occur in this region during spring, when the sudden melting of the snow or heavy rains occur on the water saturated soils. Most of the times, the two factors can combine or the warm rains can melt the snow accumulated during winter, leading to the formation of flash floods in this part of the country. The hydrographical basin of Timi river, especially on its lower surface, was affected several years by the occurrence of large floods that led to the flooding 108

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of large surfaces of land, thus producing numerous damages and even death, in some unfortunate cases. The oldest floods occurred in this hydrographical space and recorded in certain historic documents of the time, without knowing clear hydrological data on these, are the ones from 1753. Then, the following major flash floods that affected Banat took place in: 1816, 1859, 1906, 1912, 1966, 1970, 1989, 1999 and 2000. The last and the worst floods of the last 43 years were the ones occurred in 2005, which were caused by: large precipitation quantities from the period, generated by the heavy cyclonic activity on the whole continent, the high air temperature, as well as the water quantity coming from the sudden melting of the snow. By analysing the major floods produced in the hydrometric basin of Timi river, in the last 250 years, we can notice that their regularity is of approximately 30 years, there existing cases when they occurred at intervals of several years (the floods from 2000, followed by the ones from 2005). Due to the fact that the floods occurred in this space represent a frequent natural event, which may have strong negative effects, the improvement of the flood fighting strategy through the implementation of the concept of "more space for rivers", the consolidation and the elevation of the dams where necessary and the application of non-structural measures of managing the floods are recommended (Stnescu, Drobot, 2006). Records of the extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena The extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena are located at the extreme limit (maximum or minimum possible) of variation and are represented by the highest and the lowest value of a relatively short series of statistical data (Bogdan, Octavia, Niculescu, Elena, 1999, p. 18-19). Most of the times, the concept of extreme phenomena, either climatic or hydrologic, is confused with the synonym term of climatic and hydrologic records, meaning the climax in the evolution of these types of phenomena. To identify the climatic and hydrologic records that caused large material damages and numerous deaths, we should consider the longest period of time, because the longer the period, the more significant is the record and the potential destructive consequences caused by it. The most important records of the extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena recorded on the hydrographical basin of Timi river, during the studied period (1965-2009), are given in table 5.

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Table 5. Records of the extreme hydro-meteorological phenomena recorded on the Timi river basin.
Extreme meteorological arcu Cuntu phenomena the year with the -1.8 3.3 lowest average (1980) (1980) temperature ( C) the year with the 0.6 5.8 highest average (2002, 2007) (2002) temperature ( C) the coldest winter -10 -5.9 ( C) (1981) (1985) the hottest summer 9.6 15.3 ( C) (2007) (2007) the coldest month -14.8 -10.6 ( C) (Feb. 1965) (Feb. 1965) the hottest month 12 17.4 ( C) (Aug. 1992) (Aug. 1992) the year with the 1680.5 1683.3 highest humidity surplus (1966) (1966) (mm) the year with the 554.4 559.4 highest humidity deficit (1992) (1987) (mm) the winter with the lowest 25.4 21 precipitation (1972) (1972) quantities(mm) the summer with the 716.2 1001.4 largest precipitation (1969) (1969) quantities(mm) 409.4 552.2 the rainiest month (June 1969) (June 1969) (mm) the driest month (mm) the heavy rain with the highest intensity the longest heavy rain the heavy rain with the largest quantity Extreme hydrological phenomena the flood with the highest flow the flood that covered the largest surfaces the flood that caused the most damages 2 0.5 (Dec. 1972) (Dec. 1972) Semenic 2.5 (1980) 5.3 (2007) -7 (1985) 15 (2007) -11.2 (Feb. 1985) 17.6 (Aug. 1992) 1609.9 (1974) 672 (1986) 55.7 (1972) 472.5 (1969) 260.6 (June 1969) 0.6 (Dec. 1972) 2.05 mm/min. (20 Jun. 1997) 375 min. (8 Jun. 1990) 82.4 min. (8 Jun. 1990) Caransebe 9.2 (1980) 12 (2000) -2.5 (1985) 21.8 (2000) -6.4 (Feb. 1985) 24.6 (Aug. 1992) 1199.2 (2005) 420.6 (2000) 34.9 (1972) 475.8 (1969) 399.9 (June 1965) 0.5 (Nov. 1986) Lugoj 9.3 (1985) Banloc 9.8 (1980, 1985) 12.5 (2000)

12.1 (2000, 2008) -3.2 -2.8 (1985) (1985) 21.9 23.2 (2000) (2003) -7.1 -6.5 (Feb. 1985) (Jan. 1985) 24.8 25.8 (Aug. 1992) (Aug. 1992) 915.2 (2005) 473.1 (2000) 32.3 (1975) 850.1 (1970) 991.5 (1999) 297.3 (2000) 20.9 (1975) 469.1 (2005)

275.1 273.9 (July 1980) (July 1999) 0.3 0 (Feb. 1976) (Oct. 1965, Sept. 2009)

5-11 April 2000 (flow=1403 m3/s, level=560 cm) April 2005 (92456 ha of land) April 2005 (92456 ha of land, 2544 households flooded, 732 destroyed buildings, 2768 evacuated persons, 1042 isolated persons, 47 affected bridges and 53 flooded roads)

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4. Conclusions The frequency of the natural hazards of hydro-meteorological origin, occurred on the hydrographical basin of Timi river, during 1965-2009, according to the meteorological and hydrologic data statistically processed, is quite high. The most frequent phenomena recorded in the basin of Timi river are: the extreme temperatures (60%), followed by a deficit of precipitations (28.89%), by the extremely humid periods (20%), by the heavy rains (20%) and by the floods (13.34%). From a climatic point of view, the western region of the country, where the hydrographical basin of Timi river is located, dominated by moderate oceanic influences, records a relatively low frequency, duration and intensity of the drought and dryness phenomena, compared to other parts of the country, but the frequency of the extremely humid periods is higher than in other parts of the country. The years with precipitation deficit as well as the rainy ones, having a climatic record feature, should not be neglected, because they represent important climatic risks, especially for economy. Regarding the extreme hydrologic phenomena, such as the floods, their negative effects could have been reduced, considering the fact that the hydrographical basin of Timi river has a complex hydrotechnical fitting, being among the first regions in the country where such hydrotechnical works were executed. However, the floods recently occurred, the ones from: 2000 and 2005, were extraordinary, being caused by important quantities of precipitations fallen in a very short interval of time and the sudden melting of the snow. In order to avoid such similar calamitous situations, we should: raise the awareness of the public opinion regarding the correct perception of the flood risk and the responsibilities of communities and the local administrations from the Timi river basin, the achievement of studies related to the areas that may be flooded, as well as of flood risk maps and the re-evaluation of the necessary measures for the protection against floods.
REFERENCES 1. 2. 3. Arma, Iuliana, (2005) Precizri terminologice: hazard, risc, vulnerabilitate, Terra, year XXXII-XXXIV (LII-LIV), Bucharest, pp. 195-200; Bogdan, Octavia, Niculescu, Elena, (1999) Riscurile climatice din Romnia, Institute of Geography, Romanian Academy, Printed by Sega Internaional Company, Bucharest, 280 p.; Grecu, Florina, (2004) Hazarde i riscuri naturale, Academic Publishing, Bucharest, 168 p.;

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Moldovan, F., (2003) Fenomene climatice de risc, Echinox Publishing, Cluj Napoca, 210 p.; 5. Munteanu, Rodica, Maria, (1998) Bazinul hidrografic al rului Timi - studiu hidrologic, Mirton Publishing, Timioara, 210 p.; 6. Stanciu, Eugenia, (2002) Precipitaiile atmosferice din Banat (aspecte de risc), phD thesis (manuscript), Intitute of Geography, Romanian Academy, Bucharest, 328 p.; 7. Stanciu, Eugenia, (2005) Precipitaiile atmosferice din Banat (aspecte de risc), Eurostampa Publishing, Timioara, 216 p.; 8. Stnescu, V., Al., Drobot, R., (2006) - Hydrometeorological characterisation of the flood from the period 14 30 April 2005 in the Timi Bega River Basin, Water Observation and Information System for Balkan Countries (BALWOIS) Conference, May 2326, 2006, Ohrid, Macedonia; 9. Stng, I., C., (2007) Riscurile naturale. Noiuni i concepte, Press of Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Iai, 112 p.; 10. Zvoianu, I., Dragomirescu, ., (1994) Asupra terminologiei folosite n studiul fenomenelor naturale extreme, Studii i cercetri de Geografie, XLI, pp. 59-65; 11. * * (2008), Clima Romniei, Administraia Naional de Meteorologie, Bucharest.

4.

112

RISCURI I CATASTROFE, NR. XII, VOL. 12, NR. 1/2013

THE INFLUENCE OF TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ON THE AIR POLLUTION IN THE CITY OF SIBIU
ASTRID ULRIKE KBER1
Abstract. - The influence of temperature inversions on the air pollution in the city of Sibiu. The temperature inversions are likely to occur in Sibiu area due to its position inside a depression of contact between the Southern Carpathians and the Transylvanian Plateau. The effects of these inversions involve not only very low temperatures but also a stable air stratification that does not allow convective air movements; that increases air pollution in the city. The aim of this research is to identify the level of air pollution in days with temperature inversions. There were analysed the daily medium concentrations of the following atmospheric pollutants: sulfur dioxide SO2, nitrogen dioxide NO2, carbon monoxide CO and ozone O3, in days with or without inversions. The concentration of two of the above mentioned pollutants is maximum in days with general temperature inversions, high atmospheric pressure and slow wind speed. Key words: temperature inversions, air pollution, the city of Sibiu

1. Introduction It is known for a long time that urban areas are confronted with specific difficulties and one of them is air pollution. Beyond certain limits, pollution is extremely dangerous because of the risks implied and that is why there must exist evidence and control over all the pollutants that alter human health. A special attention must be paid to the pollutants of chemical origin because many various types result from sources inside urban areas. The usual concentration of each pollutant is diminished immediately after its spreading by means of dispersion, diffusion and absorbtion through chemical reactions with various components of the air. Because of its location, surface, number of inhabitants and the existent functions, air pollution gets inevitable in Sibiu; as long as the level of pollutants is low, the phenomenon itself is not dangerous. However, there are meteorological circumstances that inhibit the aeration of the atmosphere and the reduction of the concentration, and one of the factors encouraging these situations is the location of the city within a negative relief shape, such as inside a depression of contact (Frca, 1999).
1

Babe-Bolyai University, Faculty of Geography, 400006, Cluj-Napoca, Romania, e-mail: snooker_astrid@yahoo.com

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Fig. 1 Hypsometric map of the Sibiu Depression

Generally speaking, dispersion and diffusion of pollutants is much weaker when there is a low air dynamics, which is a stable vertical thermic stratification. This does not allow the development of convective movements of air and appears not only at a high atmospheric pressure in an anticyclonic air mass but also with temperature inversions (Frca, 1999). These inversions happen especially during the cold season in depressions, both in the intermountain depressions and in the 114

THE INFLUENCE OF TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ON THE AIR POLLUTION IN THE CITY OF SIBIU

contact ones, because the local orography allows the gravitational streaming down on the slope and the progressive accumulation of the cold, thicker air, originated in higher regions at the bottom of depressions (Frca, 1983). The city of Sibiu lies within the homonymous depression, where the Southern Carpathians meet the Transylvanian Plateau. Although the location is not an intermountain depression, it is firmly bounded on the south and south-west by the northern slopes of the Cindrel Mountains and Lotru Mountains and on the west, north, north-east and east by the steep slopes of the Amna and Hrtibaciu Plateaux (Ciulache, 1997). This configuration of the relief allows the accumulation of cold air in the lowest regions of the depression, specifically in the flood plain of Cibin river, where the city of Sibiu lies. As a consequence, there will be a stable stratification of air because of the rise of temperature depending on the altitude, and the air movements both on vertical and horizontal line will be very weak or non-existent. The sources of chemical pollutants are numerous within urban area; most of them result from the process of transport, manufacture, construction and from the steam-generating stations (Frca, 1999; Ursu, 1981). But the most important on the above list is the road transport, as Sibiu is transited by two important main roads that go together along the depression. There are also a lot of district and local roads in the depression, and a whole street network system inside the city. Because of the intense traffic, most of the pollutants are directly emitted after the combustion of fossil fuel or indirectly produced by chemical reactions. Another source of pollution is represented by the factories located in the city, most of them in the western and eastern industrial areas, where they produce car components, wrappers, food, ready-made clothes, electronic components. The aim of this research paper is to analyse to what extent the situations of atmospheric stability generated by temperature inversions could increase the gravity of atmospheric pollution.

2. Data and methods used


In order to work out this research paper, the author used and studied various information referring to maximum and minimum daily values of air temperature in Celsius degrees registered by the meteorological stations Sibiu (444 m) and Pltini (1450 m), to identify the days with temperature inversions as well as the medium daily values of some reference pollutants such as sulfur dioxide SO2, nitrogen dioxide NO2, carbon monoxide CO and ozone O3, by the automatic station for controlling the quality of air, from the Regional Agency for Environment Protection in Sibiu, located on the central-southern area of the city; these data were collected between 2008 and 2010 but, unfortunately, the series of information is not complete, so that the results are uncertain. The author also used data taken from the online records of the Russian Meteorological Server (http://meteo.infospace.ru/main.htm), in order to find out the wind speed and the atmospheric pressure. 115

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The methods used in this research paper are: the analytical method through mathematical and statistical ways (arithmetical means, maximum and minimum values) and the comparative method to point out the difference among various situations of atmospheric pollution.

3. Results
Analysing the frequency of the temperature inversions, the author makes a difference among the three types of inversions, depending on the moment of their appearance. There exist night inversions when the minimum temperature registered in Sibiu, that is on the bottom of the depression, is lower than the minimum temperature in Pltini, that is the intermountain region. Day inversions occur when the maximum temperature in Sibiu is lower than the one in Pltini, and the situation of general inversion occurs when both the minimum temperature and the maximum one are lower within the depression than in the mountain region. The general temperature inversions are less frequent because the inversion layer formed during the night is usually destroyed during the day by the heating of the air within low regions.
Nr of situations

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII

Night inversions Day inversions General inversions


months

Fig. 2 Number of situations with temperature inversions in Sibiu, 2008-2010

Most of the temperature inversions are recorded especially during winter and at the end of autumn. Between 2008 and 2010 a high frequency of appearance of the three types of inversion was registered on the average in January, with at least, 10 situations or more. The number of day and general inversions is maximum during this month compared with other months, and most of the cases of night inversions are recorded on the average in November, during more than a half of the 116

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month. The night inversion may occur during any month of the year, that is warmer seasons, but less frequent and in a few situations. During the examined period of time there were not registered any day and general inversions between March and September (included). Therefore, the probability of a negative influence over the situations of atmospheric pollution is maximum during cold weather when the temperature inversions occur most frequently and persist for more consecutive days. After analysing and centralizing the data about the medium daily concentration of pollutants, here is the following diagram:
100

General average of pollutants By night inversion

10

By day inversion By general inversion

During days with normal temperature by night During days with normal day temperature
SO2 (g/m3) NO2 (g/m3) CO (mg/m3) O3 (g/m3)

Fig. 3 Medium daily concentration of pollutants in various atmospheric conditions between 2008-2010 in Sibiu (logarithmic scale)

For a better description of the determined data, the author used a logarithmic scale because the average values of the carbon monoxide are lower than those of the ozone, and are presented in mg/m3, that is a unit of measure that is different from the others (g/m3) It was noticed that the influence of the temperature inversions has a different effect on every pollutant separately and that is justified by the big number of elements acting over the pollutants and also by their different properties. One must take into account that polluting activities are more numerous and more intense during daylight while the activities of transport and construction are significantly reduced at night; theoretically speaking, the concentration of pollutants is supposed to be increased in the case of day inversions, when the sources of pollution are numerous and the pollutants are captured within the inversion layer immediately after their emission. The biggest concentrations occur when the inversion layer persists day and night, especially during consecutive days with general inversions. 117

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In case of two of the pollutants, the analysis can prove the clear influence that the temperature inversions have upon their concentration registered at the station. The general average value of the nitrogen dioxide is 23,57 g/m3; the values calculated for days with inversion are higher, compared with the general average, specifically 31,12 g/m3 for night inversions, 38,33 g/m3 for day inversions and 40,31 g/m3 for general inversions, and that represents an increase of 171% compared with the general average. By comparison, the values of nitrogen dioxide are slightly reduced compared with the general average during the days with normal temperature, when there are no inversions in Sibiu Depression. These values are: 21,75 g/m3 at night and 22,53 g/m3 during daylight, that is a diminution to 92%, respectively to 95% of the medium concentration of the pollutants. The temperature inversions have more important influence over the concentration of the carbon monoxide, calculated as 0,41 mg/m3 for the period 2008-2010. During the days with any type of temperature inversions, the concentration increases considerably: 0,90 mg/m3 for night inversions, 1,38 mg/m3 for day inversions and the maximum of 1,53 mg/m3 for general inversions. Being referred to the average value of the concentration of carbon monoxide, the rise is extremely high: 219% for night inversions, 336% for day inversions and even 373% for general inversions, that is 3,7 times the average concentration. On the other hand, it is evident that carbon monoxide has a lower concentration during the days with normal temperature, 0,29 mg/m3 at night and 0,34 mg/m3 during daylight, that is 70%, respectively almost 83% of average concentration. The concentrations of sulfur dioxide do not reveal the same tendency as the nitrogen dioxide or the carbon monoxide, but has different values, slightly dependent on the presence of the temperature inversions. The fluctuation of these concentrations depends on some other factors like good solubility in water, the reaction upon other chemical elements in the atmosphere and its own mass (it is heavier than air). The average concentration calculated for the period of time analysed is 7,38 g/m3; the highest concentration of the sulfur dioxide was registered during days with night inversions, 7,99 g/m3, that is a rise of only 108% compared with the average. A possible explanation could be the high level of moisture content, frequent with night inversions, that encourages the suspension of pollutants in the urban atmosphere because of its increased solubility in water. For the situations with day and general inversions, the concentration decreases under general average, to 7,08 g/m3 and 7,14 g/m3; that is almost 96% and 97% of average value. A little higher are the values calculated for the days with normal temperatures, 7,24 g/m3 at night and 7,40 g/m3 during daylight. These concentrations are generally approximated to multiannual average with no significant increase or decrease, as it happens with the carbon monoxide. The concentration calculated for ozone shows that this pollutant does not accumulate in urban air, but it arises as a secondary result of some photo-chemical 118

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reactions in certain conditions: the presence of nitrogen dioxide and volatile organic compounds in the atmosphere (Zagr, 2011) and the action of solar ultraviolet radiations, partially absorbed, concomitantly with the distribution of thermal energy (Ciulache, 2004). According to average values of the cloudiness in Sibiu (Ciulache, 1997) and to the above factors, one could explain why the concentration of ozone is bigger in the days with normal temperature than in situations with inversions: if for getting ozone there must exist ultraviolet radiations, that is sun rays, then cloudiness should be extremely reduced. The lowest values of the cloudiness are recorded in Sibiu during summer and at the beginning of autumn when the temperature inversions have the lowest frequency. As a consequence, the ozone appears especially in hot season, during days with normal temperature, and has average concentrations of 44,58 g/m3 at night and 43,33 g/m3 during daylight, compared with the average value of 41,90 g/m3. Thus, in situations with temperature inversions more frequent in cold weather with high cloudiness, the ozone has lower values than the general average for the period of time that was studied: 30,48 g/m3 for night inversions, 21,07 g/m3 for day inversions and 20,57 g/m3 for general inversions.
Table 1. Maximum values of daily medium concentrations of pollutants in various atmospheric conditions between 2008-2010 in Sibiu
SO2 (g/m3) Maximum values of pollutants Pollutants in days with night inversions Pollutants in days with day inversion Pollutants in days with general inversion Pollutants in days with normal temperature 24,83 18,29 17,59 14,71 24,83 NO2 (g/m3) 105,19 87,93 66,13 105,19 94,42 CO (mg/m3) 3,72 2,00 1,38 3,72 2,24 O3 (g/m3) 120,65 92,96 45,10 64,67 120,65

The degree of influence of air pollution by the temperature inversions in Sibiu can be also estimated according to daily maximum values of the pollutants in various atmospheric conditions. The highest concentration during some general inversions was recorded for two out of the four pollutants. The maximum value of the concentration of nitrogen dioxide, 105,19 g/m3 was measured on the 15th of January 2008 in conditions of general inversion. At 2,6 C, its intensity was weaker and invariable during the day but there must be taken into consideration the fact that the maximum value of the nitrogen dioxide was recorded after a series of 6 consecutive days with situation of general temperature inversion, with big intensity up to 9 C at night and 9,7 C during daylight. There also existed a situation of general inversion during 4 previous 119

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consecutive days but of extremely high intensity, 11,2 C. All this determined a gradual accumulation of amounts of nitrogen dioxide in the urban atmosphere because the air stratification was stable for a longer period of time, at a very high pressure, up to 1038 hPa (referred to sea level) and low wind speed (in general 1-3 m/s). High values of the nitrogen dioxide were measured also in days with normal temperature, 94,42 g/m3 on the 22nd of February 2008, but this could be explained by the constant high level of the atmospheric pressure after the registration of the maximum value, so that the air stratification was still stable and the amounts of nitrogen dioxide and ozone maintained at a high level. The biggest concentration of carbon monoxide was recorded on the 15th of January 2009, 3,72 mg/m3, and the explanation for this phenomenon is similar to the previous one: the respective day was the end of a period of 7 consecutive days with general temperature inversion. During that day the intensity of the inversion was high at night (5,4 C) and medium during daylight (3,00 C), but previously the intensity was exceptionally high: 12,1 C on the 12th of January during daylight and 16,8 C on the night of the 13th of January. The daily minimum temperatures were very low for almost 3 previous weeks and during the same interval the atmospheric pressure was extremely high, of 1045 hPa, with wind speed of 1-3 m/s. During the 7 consecutive days with general temperature inversion, the concentration of the carbon monoxide increased almost gradually from 1,53 mg/m3 to the maximum of 3,72 mg/m3, while the pollutants were captured inside the inferior layer of an inversion of high intensity. Big amounts of carbon monoxide were stored in days with normal temperatures, but they were more reduced, of maximum 1,60 mg/m3 on the 6th of December 2010. The atmospheric pressure reached quite normal values, about 1013 hPa, and there were also recorded isolated situations of temperature inversions the previous days, that permitted an insignificant accumulation of pollutants in urban air, that could not be quickly dispersed. The maximum values of the sulfur dioxide and ozone were recorded in days with normal temperatures. The biggest concentration of sulfur dioxide, 24,83 g/m3, was measured on the 10th of April 2008, when the air stratification was normal at a slightly low atmospheric pressure of 1005 hPa (referred to sea level), a relative humidity of 65% and wind speed, weak to moderate, of 2-5 m/s. Taking into consideration the concentrations of the pollutant the previous days, and the proper atmospheric conditions, it is possible to report an additional, isolated emission of sulfur dioxide from a certain source, that led to a higher increase of the measured concentration. This increase started 2 days before the instability of air and the high wind speed did not allow the accumulation of a significant quantity of pollutant in urban atmosphere. Maximum concentrations of sulfur dioxide in days with temperature inversions are lower, no matter what type of inversion is present; causes are numerous and they must be correlated with physical and chemical properties of this pollutant. The most significant concentration of ozone, 120,65 g/m3 was recorded on the th 28 of April 2009, during a day with normal temperature. On that day, the 120

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meteorological conditions were suitable for the formation of the ozone in urban air because the atmospheric pressure was normal, 1013 hPa, the relative humidity was low, 30% and there existed a minimum cloudiness that allowed the direct penetration of solar ultraviolet radiations up to the terrestrial surface. The amount of ozone in the atmosphere could have been bigger unless the wind speed had periodically registered significant increases of wind squalls up to 11 m/s, because the ozone maintained at a high level during the month of April. The concentrations measured during temperature inversions are much lower than the rest, less than a half of the absolute maximum value in day inversions (45,10 g/m3). During cold weather, when there is a maximum frequency of temperature inversions, the cloudiness increases to its highest values, so that the appearance of the ozone is significantly reduced because of the smaller amounts of ultraviolet radiations that reach the terrestrial surface. 4. Conclusions The presence of temperature inversions, that is of a stable air stratification, does not have the same effects upon various pollutants. Their accumulation inside the inferior layer, that is urban air, depends on the characteristics of the pollutants and their conduct in natural free air, because there are stable pollutants that are hard to disperse by weak movements in the atmosphere and react slowly with the other air components; among these, the nitrogen dioxide and the carbon monoxide. But there also exist pollutants that once dispersed in the atmosphere, immediately tend to take part in chemical reactions, the sulfur dioxide, and pollutants that are the result of such reactions, the ozone. Anyway, there must be a closer control over all the pollutants that could persist, in a higher concentration, within the area of the city, and there must be an urgent warning of the citizens if there is an exceeding of the limit values that could affect human health. These values were established by the Law nr. 108 on the 15th of June 2011, referring to the quality of the environmental air, and the values related to the pollutants analysed in this paper are presented in the following chart:
Table 2. Reference values for pollutants analysed in Law nr 104/2011

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If we compare the daily medium concentrations measured with the maximum values accepted by law, the conclusion is that, fortunately, the city of Sibiu was not seriously affected by air pollution between 2008 - 2010. Even the long periods of temperature inversions did not aggravate the situation up to reaching dangerous concentrations, because neither the limit values, nor the level of alert were attained. But the relative short period of observation does not allow a general conclusion for a long period of time of the situation presented because extreme and rare cases of pollution were not subject of the analysis. Unless new emission sources occur, the risk of pollution of the urban air is at a low level, although Sibiu is one of the most prosperous cities in Romania and has numerous perspectives of economic development. An important step to reduce the emission of pollutants was represented, both at national and european level, by establishing certain regulations, and at the local level, by placing filters inside the emission sources, by limiting road traffic in the center of the city and by opening in December 2010 the surrounding road to direct the traffic out of the city. REFERENCES
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Bogdan Octavia, 2009, Bazele teoretice ale meteorologiei, Ed. Universitii Lucian Blaga, Sibiu Ciulache S., 1997, Clima Depresiunii Sibiului, Ed. Universitii din Bucureti, Bucureti Ciulache S., 2004, Meteorologie i Climatologie, Ed. Universitar, Bucureti Frca I., 1983, Probleme speciale privind climatologia Romniei. Partea I-a. Factorii climatogenetici, Facultatea de Geografie, Cluj-Napoca Frca I., 1999, Clima urban, Ed. Casa Crii de tiin, Cluj-Napoca Ursu D. P., 1981, Atmosfera i poluarea, Ed. tiinific i Enciclopedic, Bucureti *** Legea nr. 104 din 15 iunie 2011 privind calitatea aerului nconjurtor http://meteo.infospace.ru/main.htm [accesat 12.02.2013]

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SENSITIVITY OF THE HEC-HMS RUNOFF MODEL FOR NEAR-SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE CONTENTS ON THE EXAMPLE OF A RAPID-RESPONSE CATCHMENT IN SW HUNGARY
P. HEGEDS1, S. CZIGNY2, L. BALATONYI3 & E. PIRKHOFFER4
Abstract. - Sensitivity of the HEC-HMS runoff model for near-surface soil moisture contents on the example of a rapid-response catchment in SW Hungary. Due to the global climate change, flash floods are one of the most significant natural hazards of today. To prevent, or at least mitigate flash flood triggered losses, numeric model based flood forecasting models are ideal tools to predict stream water levels. Model accuracy, nonetheless is profoundly influenced by input data quality. To obtain input data for the HEC-HMS distributed rainfallrunoff model, widely used for runoff forecasting, in present study we have regularly monitored ground precipitation, discharge and soil moisture in the Psa Valley watershed (1.7 km2) in SW Hungary and data was extrapolated and upscaled to the broader area of the Bkksd Watershed (99 km2). To test model applicability for flow time series reconstruction, the peak flow event of May 15 to 18, 2010 on the Bkksd Stream was reproduced with the HEC-HMS. Model sensitivity was tested for various antecedent soil moisture values estimated from 2009, 2011 and 2012 in situ measured data. The output of the current research could be utilized for increasing the accuracy of rainfall-runoff model based flash flood warning systems for forested rapid response catchments that are representative for low-mountain environments under humid continental climates. Keywords: Flash flood, soil moisture, runoff, monitoring system, HECHMS, model sensitivity

Doctoral School of Earth Sciences, University of Pcs, H-7624 Pcs, 6, Ifjsg u., University of Pcs, Pcs, Hungary, hp88@gamma.ttk.pte.hu 2 Institute of Environmental Sciences, University of Pcs, H-7624 Pcs, 6, Ifjsg u. sczigany@gamma.ttk.pte.hu) 3 Doctoral School of Earth Sciences, University of Pcs, H-7624 Pcs, 6, Ifjsg u., balatonyi.laszlo@gmail.com 4 Institute of Environmental Sciences, University of Pcs, H-7624 Pcs, 6, Ifjsg u. pirkhoff@gamma.ttk.pte.hu)

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1. Introduction
In the past few decades, temporal frequency of flash flood events has been increasing. This is likely to be one of the hydrological consequences of the global climate change, and also the more extreme behavior and variability of precipitation events. In one hand, the number of the weather extremities has been increasing; on the other hand, these events are usually concentrated on a small area (catchment) and are strongly influenced by topography (Sharif et al. 2005). Thus, the temporal and spatial distribution of precipitation is a major issue in flash flood forecasting and stormwater management. Prediction and analysis of these types of floods is a complex topic, as excess runoff is concentrated over a short period of time (Gaume et al 2009). Usually, the energy of a flux is also very high, thus both prevention and protection can be extremely important and challenging against floods (Yates et al. 1999). The changing frequency of torrential rainfalls not only alters streamflow characteristics, but may also carries nutrients, silts and hydrocarbons, chlorinated organics and heavy metals from surfaces of buildings directly into watercourses and other water bodies (Bathurst et al. 2012; Czigny et al. 2010). Undoubtedly, precipitation is a very important condition for triggering flash floods, but other environmental factors, such as relief, land cover, and soil parameters must also be considered as well for runoff calculations (Georgakakos 2006). As the return time of the flood events are decreasing, the losses it causes are also become more relevant. The second reason for increased runoff and increased frequency of urban floods today is that the Earths natural land cover and land use have been dramatically changed (Le Lay & Saulnier 2007, Fbin et al. 2009). Up to 95% of the ground surface in cities is now sealed due to urban development and this is ground space through which rainwater cannot be lost by permeation. This leads to up to 75% of rainwater becoming run-off in urban areas. To prevent localized flooding built-up areas need to be drained of excess rain water. The objective of the current research paper is (a) to model a characteristic flood event that occurred in the drainage area of the Bkksd Stream in the Mecsek Hills, SW Hungary between May 15 and 18, 2010 and (b) to test the sensitivity of HEC-HMS model for antecedent soil moisture values and (c) to test the applicability of the HEC-HMS for runoff forecast in rapid response catchments typical for the low-mountain areas of Central and Eastern Europe. To reproduce the flow time series, we used the 3.5 version of the HEC-HMS (US Army Corps of Engineers, 2009) rainfall-runoff model. Limited antecedent environmental data were available for the reconstruction of the flood event for the trunk river and the tributary streams. Antecedent near-surface (20 cm) soil moisture value was estimated based on soil moisture data measured for the same period in 2009, 2011 and 2012. Through the HEC-HMS numeric rainfall-runoff model we described the impact of soil moisture content (volumetric water content, hereafter VWC) and 126

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initial infiltration rate on surface runoff in the upper Bkksd Stream drainage system (upstream form the village of Bkksd). The studied watersheds cover a combined land area of 99 km2.

2. Materials and Methods


Overview of the pilot area The studied catchment of the Bkksd Stream is part of the river Dravas drainage system and drains the streams and waters of the Mecsek Hills in SW Hungary (Fig. 1). The headwaters of the Bkksd Valley are situated upstream from Szentlrinc (SW Hungary) and cover a total area of 137 km2 although we only focused on the catchment segment located upstream of the village of Bkksd. The studied area here covers a land are of 99 km2 and primarily characterized by high relief. The Bkksd Stream has a variable, primarily rainfall-affected flow regime with high flow peaks occurring usually over the period of May to July. The Bkksd Stream is fed by several tributary streams, namely the Sorms, Kn, Gorica, Ss and Megyefa Streams. Flood events on the Bkksd Stream and its tributaries inundated the adjacent floodplains at multiple times, indicating a higher frequency of flood related losses in the Mecsek Hills and its immediate vicinity in SW Hungary. Over the last 50 years, 7 major flash flood events were reported from broader drainage area of the Bkksd Stream (Vass 1997; Eszky 1987). Weather patterns in the studied area for this period of the year are typically characterized by torrential, monsoon-like rainfalls, when, since the beginning of regular meteorological measurements, a maximum rainfall intensity of 114 mm/day was observed. Highest discharge of the Bkksd Stream at Hetvehely, reached 8.8 m3/s between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2009 with an increasing temporal frequency of flood-level and bankfull stages in the second half of the period of observation. By comparison, peak flow reached 18 m3/s during the May 6, 1987 flood event, 25 m3/s at 4-m stage during the July 10, 1967 event, and 35 m3/s at 3.7m stage during the June 27, 1987 event (Eszky, 1987, 1992; Vass, 1997). About 68.9% of the entire catchment is covered by either forests of intermittent clear cuts, 28.6% is agricultural land, while the remaining 2.3% is under urban development and various artificial (paved) surfaces and about 0.15% is covered by surface water. Villages located in the upper narrow part of the valley have been inundated by flash floods several times since records are available, causing significant economic losses. For instance, during the July 10, 1967 flash flood, 10 and 4 buildings collapsed in Hetvehely and Okorvlgy, respectively. With a few exceptions, reliable inundation data is unavailable for the period prior to 1900. Notable (i.e., when properties were damaged) flash-flood events were reported on July, 1 1954, July 31, 1959, July 10, 1967, May 6, 1987, June 27, 1987 and May 16, 1996. 127

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Fig. 1. Location of the monitored area (Psa Valley)

Hydrologic data Discharge flow time series were measure at multiple locations on the trunk stream and the tributaries. Gauging stations on the tributary streams are predominantly located at the immediate proximity of the confluences between the trunk and the tributaries (Fig. 1). Figure 4 shows the yearly flow peaks for the period of 2000 to 2010 for the Bkksd Stream measured at the Hetvehely gauging station. The highest flow in this period was measured in 2005. The second highest flow was measured during the May 15 to 17, 2010 flood event. Peak flows for the 2005 and 2010 flood events have a return period of about 9 years. The studied flood event of May 15 to 18, 2010 was triggered by a long-lasting, but lowintensity rainfall event generated by the Sophia Mediterranean Cyclone between May 15 and 18, 2010. This flood event was ranked 2nd in 2010 with a peak flow value of 8.23 m3 s-1 at the Hetvehely gauging station. Additional details of the studied flood events are shown in Table 1. Highest flow was measured on June 1, when peak flow reached 8.8 m3 s-1 at Hetvehely, due to the substantial presaturation of the soils and the Angela Cyclone that produced approximately 100 mm rainfall over large areas of Hungary. Rainfall Data Model input rainfall data were obtained from an automated weather station (coordinates: N46o0730.67, E18o0251.18) located at the western edge of the Ss Valley, a left side tributary of the Bkksd Stream (Fig. 1). 10-minute meteorological data were obtained from this station. The model simulation runs 128

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were based on the May 15-18, 2010 rainfall event, when on average 155 mm of rain fell from the Angela Cyclone (Bartholy-Pongrcz in press, Czigny et al. in press).
Table 1 General characteristics for 15 May, 2010 flood event at the Bkksd Streams catchment Duration of rainfall event 63h 10 min Beginning time of rainfall event 2010. May 15. 7:55 Maximum rainfall intensity 2010. May 15. 16:05 and 2010. May 16. 1:05, (both 1,6 mm/10 min (9.6 mm/h) Elapse time between beginning of rainfall 8h 10 min to maximum intensity event and peak discharge time Ending time of rainfall event 2010. May 17, 22:05 Peak discharge 8.23 m3 s-1, Bkksd Stream, Hetvehely Beginning of base flow rising 2010. May 15. 2010 19:00

Soil Data Soil textural groups were determined by laboratory analyses for 14 surface soil samples and two borehole samples at depth intervals of 10 cm taken at the central catchment of the Ss Valley (Psa Valley, see on Fig. 1). Soil moisture measurements were not taken in the area during the modeled period. For comparison, soil moisture values measured in the Ss Valley during 2009, 2011 and 2012 were available as regular measurement were taken during these time periods, with a portable (in 2009) and point source datalogger equipped automated soil moisture sensors (in 2011 and 2012). Soil moisture values measured in 2009 were taken with a Time Domain Reflectrometry-type (TDR) soil moisture sensor (Spectrum TDR-300, Planfield, Illinois, US) between September 5 and December 5, 2008 and March 6, 2009 and September 5, 2009 in 5 to 15 day time intervals. The sensor was calibrated a priori in the Soil physics laboratory of University of Pcs, for the soil physical types found in the Psa Valley (loam and clayey loam soils). Soil moisture sensors were equipped with 20-cm long stainlesssteel electrodes. Measurements were taken at 14 monitoring stations located in the downstream (north) part of the Psa Valley (Fig. 1). Measurements at each monitoring stations were carried out randomly with 3 to 5 repetitions in a circle of 1.5 meter radius. At each monitoring stations, due to the large spatial heterogeneity of understory vegetation and litter cover, measurements were repeated three times, however at measurement stations 7, 8 and 9 where a large proportion of coarse rocky fragments is present, 5 repetitive measurements were carried out. The 2011 and 2012 soil moisture values were measured with datalogger (Decagon EM50) equipped TDR-type 5-TM sensors (all components were manufactured by Decagon Devices Inc., Pullman, WA, United States). Sensors were buried at a depth of 20 cm. 129

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HEC-HMS model setup The HEC-HMS 3.5 model was setup with 7 subbasins for the Bkksd Stream, namely the Sorms, Gorica, Kn, Ss, Megyefa, Bkksd Upper and Bkksd Lower subcatchments. To account for loss (retention) of rainfall during the simulation runs (i.e. due to interception, surface storage and infiltration) the Simple Canopy, Simple Surface and Deficit and Constant models of HEC-HMS 3.5 were used. Parameterization scheme for the best fit between the observed and simulated flow time series and employed measurement techniques are shown in Table 2. Static (time-independent) relevant data were not changed for the two selected unit hydrograph (UHG) events while dynamic, time-dependent boundary conditions, like antecedent soil moisture values were different for the two selected UHG events.
Table 2 Measurement techniques, and the parameters used for best fitting in the three loss method modules (Simple Canopy, Simple Surface and Deficit and Constant) and the hydraulic parameters (Clark Unit Hydrograph) of the HEC-HMS for the two simulated UHG events for the studied, adjacent and entire watershed Input parameter Bkksd SorKn Gorica Megyefa Ss ms Max. canopy storage (mm) 4 4 4 4 4 4 Initial canopy storage (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Surface storage (mm) 5 5 5 5 5 5 Initial surface storage (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Initial deficit (mm) 40 50 29 70 45 20 Maximum deficit (mm) 100 100 70 100 70 70 Infiltration rate (mm h-1) 2 3 2 2 2 2 Impervious surf. (%) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Time of concentration (h) 7 3 3 2 2,2 4 Storage coefficient (h) 20 20 20 4 10 6 Base flow (m3 s-1) 0.160 0.032 0.035 0.025 0.068 0.032 Lag time (min) 50 36 47 36 10 50

3. Results and Discussion


Soil moisture pattern and behavior in the Bkksd Valley In general, soil moisture contents in the Bkksd Valley, besides the localized effects of soil texture and coarse rocky fragments, were primarily influenced by topography and elevation. Based on the interpolation among the measurement points, highest soil moisture contents were measured in the immediate vicinity of the floodplain, while with increasing elevation above the floodplain, decreasing soil moisture contents were observed. 130

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Usually, the lowest soil moisture content was observed at monitoring station located on steep slopes with shallow topsoils and sandy or sandy-loam texture. The high fraction of coarse rocky (sandstone) fragments also likely contributed to the low soil moisture values of high spatial stability. These findings were confirmed by the infiltration experiments carried out with Decagon mini disk infiltrometers (data are not shown here). The crumbly soil structure may also contribute to the high infiltration rate at this location. Monitoring stations deployed on clear cut sites also indicated a substantial temporal soil moisture behavior. Nonetheless, the behavior of soil moisture regime compared to each other at each measurement time, was relatively consistent, i.e. the spatial ranking of each soil moisture monitoring stations was quite stable, corroborating the findings of e.g.: Brocca et al. (2012).The soil moisture regime clearly reflected the orographic effects, soil physical types (texture and structure) and the land use type of the given location. All these factors significantly contributed to the large spatial heterogeneity and mosaic pattern of soil moisture contents in the Bkksd Valley. On average, highest soil moisture values were detected in 2009 (Fig. 2). However, due to the lack of adequate data homogenization, the difference cannot be considered statistically reliable. As previously mentioned, the 2009 soil moisture data were collected with a portable TDR soil moisture meter at irregular time intervals of about 1 to 3 weeks. Data in 2011 and 2012, on the other hand, were collected with automated datalogger equipped TDR sensors, where collection time intervals were 10 minutes, and for the period May 15 to July 15, 2011 collection intervals were decreased to 1 minute. This way, data collected in 2011 and 2012 could be inter-correlated with each other. On average, 2012 data were significantly higher than the mean soil moisture values for all monitoring station for the period of February 21 to May 15 in 2011. This is explained by the low total cumulative precipitation of this period in 2011. Precipitation total for this period, i.e. preceding the studied high peak event of May 15 to 18 was 127.8 mm, which was the highest value for the period of 2009 to 2012. The differences in the rainfall totals for the February 21 to May 15 period, nonetheless, do not exactly reflect the observed soil moisture values in the pilot area (2009: 97.6 mm; 2010: 127.8 mm; 2011: 33.2 mm; 2012: 98.7 mm). By using soil moisture values available for this period and especially for May 15 to 18, we could estimate initial soil moisture deficits for the studied peak flow event of May, 2010. Best matches were found for the estimated soil moisture deficits at 40 to 70 mm for most subcatchments of the Bkksd Stream (see later in details) which would correspond to a volumetric soil moisture content of 0.14 to 0.35 m3 m-3. This would agree with the expected soil moisture range of the area based on the 2009, 2011 and 2012 soil moisture data.

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Fig. 2. Volumetric water contents in the Psa Valley in 2009, 2010 and 2011. Soil moisture data were unavailable for 2010

Maximum moisture storage values also significantly influenced model output. Best matches were found at initial soil moisture storage values of 70 to 100 mm. These values are much lower than expected based on the soil depth measurements carried out in the Psa Valley and published formerly (mean for boreholes: 2.66 m, mean for VES measurements: 2.76 m, see in further details in Keresztny et al. 2011). The low value of storage depth is explained by the fact, that immediately following a torrential high-intensity rainfall, interflow processes only occur in the shallow, near-surface part of the soils, thus the deeper soil profiles and horizons do not contribute to soil moisture within the time frame of time of concentration values typical for rapid-response catchments of small land area. HEC-HMS model results Flow time series for the selected flood events were reproduced and simulated using the HEC-HMS (Hydrological Modeling System) runoff hydrological program (developed in Davis, CA, United States). Measured initial and boundary conditions, and in certain cases modeled values were used as input data for the model. For comparative purposes, observed data were available for the above listed tributary valleys and for the Bkksd Valley at Hetvehely as an outflow point. However, no data were available for the Bkksd Stream at Bkksd. Model simulations reproduced the observed flow time series with a relatively high accuracy for both single-peak and multi-peak hydrographs. However, in certain cases temporal shift is detectable between the observed and the modeled curves. This shift is likely caused by the single-point precipitation measurement within the watershed. Peak discharge could not be reproduced with sufficient accuracy for the Megyefa and Ss Streams. This discrepancy was caused by the failure of the stream gage measurements above 0.9 m3 s-1 and 1.55 m3 s-1 for 132

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the Megyefa and Ss Streams, respectively. To overcome of this shortcoming in peak flow detection and quantification, simulation runs were used for peak flow determination for the two aforementioned streams. In the case of the Ss Stream, the tailing of the falling limb was also poorly reproduced (Fig. 3f). Percentage of modeled cumulative outflow compared to the observed values ranged between 87.6 and 107.3%, while peak outflows, due to the failure of the stream gages for detecting high flows, ranged between 89.9 and 215.3%. Model runs were carried out using the Initial and Constant loss methods to account for infiltration into the subsurface and the vadose zone. We also attempted to employ the Soil Moisture Accounting Loss Model of the HEC-HMS, however, reconstruction efficiency was worse for this model than for the Initial and Constant Loss model. In general, for the best fit case, cumulative outflow reproduction efficiency was better than the reproduction of peak flow. Relative cumulative outflow ranged between 0.877 and 1.073 for the six studied catchments. Closest match was observed for the Ss Stream where modeled cumulative outflow exceeded the measured one by 0.2%. Worst match was found for the Gorica Stream where relative cumulative outflow (i.e. the ratio of modeled and measured outflow) was only 0.877, i.e. the model significantly underestimated the observed cumulative outflow. Modeled peak flow values showed a larger deviation compared to the observed values than in the case of cumulative outflow. Peak flow for all tributaries usually ranged in the probability ranges of 5 to 10% based on the log-Pearson probability distribution of peak discharges. Peak flow values showed the best match for 60 mm initial deficit with the exception for the upper Bkksd Drainage System and the Kn Stream. In the latter two cases best match was found at 40 mm initial soil moisture deficit. With higher initial soil moisture contents, peak flow values showed a significant increase. This is explained by the decreasing pore volume capacity available for water storage. The match between the timing of the modeled and measured peak flow was relatively good in most cases with the exception of the Gorica Stream when both the entire length and the falling limb of the observed flow series was longer than for the modeled data of the best fit (60 mm initial soil moisture (deficit) (Fig. 3c). Also, for the Gorica Stream, the peak flow values for the best fit significantly exceeded that of the modeled flow time series (50% difference at 60 mm initial deficit). Worst relative peak flow value of 2.153 (calculated/measured) was observed for the Ss Stream. Here, the large difference is likely caused by the malfunction of the stream gage, which also indicated by the long plateau of the observed flow data for the both Megyefa and Ss Stream (Fig. 3a and 3b). Best match was observed for the upper catchment of the Bkksd Stream where the relative peak flow totaled 1.067 (Table 3). Largest sensitivity for the antecedent soil moisture contents was observed at the Gorica Stream. When initial soil moisture deficit was decreased from 60 mm to 10 mm (60 mm being the best match), peak flow value increase by 2.5-fold. 133

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Fig. 3. Observed and simulated discharge values for various initial deficit values for the 15 May 2010 flood event for the 6 studied watersheds of the Bkksd Stream: (a) UpperBkksd, (b) Kn Stream, (c) Gorica Stream, (d) Sorms Stream, (e) Megyefa Stream, (f) Ss Stream

4. Conclusions
The ratio of runoff to infiltration is profoundly influenced by antecedent soil moisture contents, soil texture and hydraulic conductivity, thus awareness of watersheds-scale soil properties is also essential stormwater management. Understanding soil moisture variability across spatial-temporal scales is of great 134

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interest in many scientific and operational hydrologic applications (Brocca et al. 2012). Both antecedent soil moisture and infiltration rate are important runoffinfluencing factors; however, they are highly variable both spatially and temporally; consequently their exact values are hard to predict in sufficient spatial resolution at a given location. The findings of the present study pointed out the considerably sensitivity of the HEC-HMS for input antecedent soil moisture values when the flow peak of the May 15 to 18, 2010 event was reconstructed. However, the sensitivity greatly varied among the tributary catchments and were influenced by land use types (clear cuts to canopy cover ratio), area (time of concentration and storage coefficient) and soil storage capacity (pore space). However, if soil moisture values obtained at regular measurement intervals are unavailable, then spatial interpolation of the measured soil moisture points may help in the estimation of soil moisture contents at given parts of the watershed or for the entire watershed if no measured values are available for the watershed of importance. Temporal interpolation may also be suitable tool for the hydrologic characterization and determination of water balance of a given watershed. However, such a procedure may require the thorough hydrometeorological analysis and monitoring of the area of interest. Such hydrometeorological monitoring may include the measurement and subsequent analysis of air and soil temperature, relative humidity, soil moisture potentials, rainfall totals and intensity, wind speed and several other weather parameters.
Table 3 Observed and modeled peak discharge and cumulative outflow values at various initial deficit values for the 15 May, 2010 flood event for the Bkksd Streams subcatchments
Cumulative outflow (1000 m3) Meas. Calc. Gorica S. Kn S. Sorms S. Bkksd S. Ss Stream Megyefa S. 79.8 296.1 180.1 1437.6 290.4 123.2 69.9 299.5 160.8 1299.6 290.9 132.3 Peak flow (m3 s-1) Meas. Calc. 1.06 1.96 1.412 8.23 1.58 0.922 0.989 2.104 1.27 8.782 3.403 1.36 Relative cumulative outflow (Calc./Meas.) 0.877 1.017 0.893 0.904 1.002 1.073 Relative peak flow (Calc./Meas.) 0.933 0.107 0.899 1.067 2.153 1.475

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This research was funded by the TMOP 4.2.1.B-10/2/KONV-2010-0002 Scholarship (Developing Competitiveness of Universities in the South Transdanubian Region), the grant of SROP-4.2.2.C-11/1/KONV-2012-0005 Scholarship (Well-being in the Information Society) and the Baross Gbor Grant (Grant No. REG DD KFI 09/PTE TM09). The authors are also grateful to Gbor Horvth at the South Transdanubian Environmental and Water Directorate for providing flow data for the current research and Jzsef Dezs for the laboratory analyses of the soil samples. The authors are also indebted to the Tettye Forrshz for providing financial support to the current research.

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FLOOD RESILIENCE AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN URBAN NIGERIA: INTEGRATING TRADITIONAL AND NON-STRUCTURAL METHODS OF MITIGATING AND ADAPTING TO FLOODING IN CROSS RIVER STATE, SOUTH-EASTERN NIGERIA (II)
RICHARD INGWE1
Abstract. - Flood resilience and sustainable development in urban Nigeria: integrating traditional and non-structural methods of mitigating and adapting to flooding in cross river state, south-eastern Nigeria. We examined application of non-structural measures in addition to conventional structural approaches by Government Agency and community for flood management in Cross River State (Nigeria) at: regional-ambit and community levels. We used focus group discussion in depth interview, and observation methods to collect data from primary and secondary sources. Our findings include: emphasis on structural flood control measures by government agencies contrasted to use of rudimentary non-structural approaches by communities. Conceptual frames proposed for managing disasters include: emphasizing future climate change impacts based on multiple scales (temporal, spatial and societal) and emphasizing historical response to disasters without increasing the visibility of climate change. We conclude that community institutions, non-government/civil society organizations should lead public institutions in promoting flood resilience based on integrated non-structural to structural measures and show recent developments regarding civil society coalition committed towards promoting environmental governance in Nigeria. Frequent flooding associated with huge losses of lives and property in the study areas, as in most of urban Nigeria, persuade us to recommend that strategically placed civil society be supported by donor/funding organizations to promote integrated non-structural and traditional-structural measures to achieve urban flood resilience nationwide. Keywords: flood, non-structural, structural, regional, community, Cross River State, Calabar.

Institute of Public Policy and Administration (IPPA), University of Calabar, Calabar, Nigeria; and Centre for Research and Action on Developing Locales, Regions and the Environment (CRADLE), Calabar, Nigeria emails: emails: cradle.africa@gmail.com ; Cc: ingwe.richard@gmail.com

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NON-STRUCTURAL APPROACHES OF CONTROLING DISASTER RISKS


These do not necessarily involve construction of structures for controlling flood. Instead they might complement structural measures by developing and implementing some or all of the following: legal instruments (e.g. monitoring and enforcement of regulations), educational programmes management (e.g. awareness-raising on destructive potentials and impacts of disaster risks, provision of humanitarian services such as First Aid); behavioural changes by individuals (e.g. welding or fastening heavy furniture and appliances to the walls and floors of homes in earth-quake-prone areas) and so forth (Kelman, 2007: 2). Other non-structural flood control measures, which have been proposed and documented by workers include: swift-water rescue evacuation of people with special needs, shelter development for disaster, community-based flood risk reduction, and flood disaster diplomacy and lessons from history (Kelman, 2008a, b). Recently, restatement of non-structural measures was compelled by devastation and huge losses arising from Hurricane Katrina, resulting from the tropical depression on 23rd August 2005, its movement northwards and transformation into the Category 1 hurricane called Katrina) on 24 August 2005, eventually making landfall on 29 August 2005 as categories 2 and 4 storms along the LouisianaMississippi border. Although the death toll resulting from the strong floods of the hurricane have been disputed, it was estimated that about 2,000 people were killed in the USA-the worlds most economically and technologically powerful nation and largest democracy. However, the non-structural measures are useful for mitigation and adaptation to disasters generally i.e. whether they involve flooding or not. The frequency of their restatement by Kelman recently, twice in 2008 alone, is due to the lamentation that despite the knowledge about them before Katrina, they were ignored while the disaster was developing and making its round. Therefore, while the following definitions refer specifically to flooding, they were derived originally for disasters generally but are useful for flood management.

Local or community-based flood risk reduction


This refers to local level programmes that allow community members to participate in proactive preparation to cope with flooding and other disasters. It includes response, recovery as measures that are best suited to the locality or community. Its advantages include the fact that the community is better empowered to become independent instead of awaiting external assistance from higher tiers of government (such as provincial/state, central or national e.g. federal, and foreign, as well as donor agencies and organizations. The experience of most disaster-afflicted areas is that the external assistance has almost always arrived rather lately. It has been estimated that the arrival of external assistance has been 138

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about seven to 14 days after announcement of the disaster. Contrastingly, community response is usually swifter: about three days i.e. 72 hours and provides a good basis for accessing external assistance, if necessary. It is becoming increasingly popular around the world including: Australia, Taiwan, Turkey, and USA. It has been described variously. Liseli-Bull-Kamanga and his colleagues have described it as locally-owned process of risk identification and priority setting for remediative action ((Bull-Kamanga Diagne, Lavell, Lerise, MacGregor, Maskrey, Meshack, Pelling, Reid, Satterthwaite, Songsore, Westgate, and Yitambe, 2003; Handmer and Wisner, 1999 and Hardoy and Satherthwaite, 1989). This term suggests that flood, like other disasters, offers an opportunity for forging diplomatic relationships and cooperation with other nations or regions (e.g. governments at various levels: local councils, state, national and regional). It is suggested that friendly and beneficial relationships could be established with other states or political entities, which are capable of offering assistance and expressing sympathy over disaster occurrence in various ways. It is recommended that planning of disaster response strategies should include provisions for accepting external assistance for rehabilitation and reconstruction purposes (http://www.disasterdiplomacy.org cited by Kelman, 2008: 42).

Disaster diplomacy

This refers to the use of a structural measure in a way that stresses that shelter (i.e. the structure), ought to be better applied as a process and one of several parts within the wide spectrum of actions required in flood control instead of its use as an object, which has attained the status of perfection in disaster management within the community endorsing the use of structural measures alone. Therefore, construction of buildings for all socio-economic and political purposes should proactively create facilities for serving as promoter of: health, weatherclimate, in addition to conventional services. The Hurricane Katrina tragedy revealed that most houses that were devastated in the affected parts of the USA were those that were improperly planned and constructed (Kelman, 2008: 42-3). During disasters, people who are emotionally attached to their relatives (including children, the ill or sick and physically challenged, pets and so forth) require special services and products. Their special needs deserve to be incorporated into community-based flood control measures. It has been reported that most deaths during previous disasters affected these category of people and creatures (Kelman, 2008a: 43 and 2008b). 139

Employment of shelter (structure) as a process rather than final solution

People with special needs

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Swift water rescue


This refers to technically complex measures involving salvaging people at risk of flooding or recovery of their bodies if they drowned. Community-based flood control programmes require this service in order to be more effective (Kelman, 2008a: 43-4). Although property recovery has been omitted this is an important aspect of flood control in very poor countries where the practice of insurance of property is by and large under-developed.

Applying instead of downplaying of historical knowledge and experience


There has been a repeated failure of human beings to learn from history of disaster response. This happened during the Hurricane Katrina to the extent that it has been suggested that it is wrong to speak in terms of natural disasters instead of human disasters arising from downplaying historical knowledge and experience thereby increasing peoples vulnerability to disasters. Myths were created to explain the Katrina tragedy instead of acknowledging the human failure to proactively anticipate and plan towards the disaster (Kelman, 2008a: 44). This point has been documented by several workers (e.g. Hewitt 1983, Lewis 1999, Milleti 1999, OKeefe 1976, Oliver-Smith, Blackie, Canon and Davis, 2004). Flood control scholarship and literature has ignored frequent defiance of flood by poverty-stricken people in developing nations including Nigeria. Lack of alternative housing (i.e. buildings lacking necessary housing services and facilities) compels core poor people to defy and live with flood. Owing to the practice of this form of response or circumstances in Nigeria and the study area, we included it (as one of the variables) in this study. The problem of poor housing in Nigeria has been profusely documented by scholars including Poku Onibokun and Richard O. Sule among others. The foregoing review shows that both measures of flood control have contributions to make. Therefore, flood resilience is achievable anywhere, including Nigeria, through integrating non-structural and structural methods.

Some factors that cause frequent urban flooding disaster


The literature has shown how several factors contribute towards worsening disasters (including frequent of flooding) in developing countries urban centres. Frequent occurrence of disasters in the Third World have been attributed to several interrelated and complex processes including urban poverty, building of poor quality structures for use as residential purposes by the urban poor, exclusion of urban poor neighbourhoods from basic housing infrastructure and services (safe water, sanitation such as garbage disposal, proper drainage). Others are the exclusion of the urban poor from political and civil rights further extending the distance between them and privileged elite thereby making them more incapable of 140

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demanding for improved economic and social conditions required for building better housing. Particular urban characteristics that cause frequent disasters (including flooding) include: concentration of large non-agricultural populations in cities and towns; operation of land pricing mechanisms in urban centres that pressurizes the poor agricultural population to involve in difficult quests for alternative livelihoods (different from agriculture) and increasingly building poor human settlements from their meager incomes; production and accumulation of large quantities of wastes by the increased and increasing density of concentrated human population; and construction of vast artificial urban surface areas-with concrete and sancrete- that are impermeable to surface waters (Bull-Kamanga et al, 2003; Handmer and Wisner, 1999 and Hardoy and Satherthwaite, 1989).

FLOODING: CONSEQUENCES AND MANAGEMENT IN NIGERIA


Catastrophic flooding in Nigeria and its adverse effects on large populations annually has been severally documented. For example, Ujah O. Chinedu reported that the number of people displaced and killed by flooding recently was as follows. Flooding in the north-central state of Kano in 1988 led to the displacement of over 300, 000 people. Similarly; flooding of Niger State (another north-central region) in 1999, led to displacement of over 200,000 people. In 2007, flooding displaced 5,650, killed 34 and contaminated open water sources used by poor people who cannot afford to protect their water sources. This disaster increased the vulnerability of the poor to affliction of other post-flood risks such as water-borne diseases, caused crop harvest losses due to damage it caused small peasant farm holdings and disruption of the planting season. The flood disrupted communication (movement of people) between people in the affected areas with others thereby preventing children from attending school to receive education, which is a well known means of reducing vulnerability to joining the membership of unemployment and poverty in future. Moreover, it was suggested that about a million people living in the nations low lying plains of the River Niger are at risk. Flooding occurs annually and afflicts people living in parts of the country that are located in within the basin and adjoin areas including the tributaries of the River Niger including two thirds of Bayelsa state and half of Delta state. This leads to huge losses of lives and property. Similarly, a large part of the southern coastal part of Nigeria is also within the low lying belt and therefore susceptible to the risk of flooding, This is the case with densely populated areas along the basin of the River Niger and its tributaries such as Bayelsa and Delta states, where two-thirds and half of the areas are routinely and regularly afflicted by devastating flooding for prolonged durations of as long as a quarter of every year. The resulting inundation of low-lying areas has 141

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been associated with huge socio-economic and environmental costs: prolonged closure of educational institutions, markets, and other institutional activities for weeks in a row (Chinedu 2008: 37 citing the Emergency Events Database (EMDAT), www.emdat.be, www.unisdr.org/eng/hfa).

Ogunpa River flood


Frequent flooding of areas around Ogunpa River, near Ibadan, one of West Africas largest cities in south western Nigeria is the most notorious and well known in the country. The Ogunpa flood disaster has been reported to have occurred to various degrees of severity in several years (1956, 1960, 1963, 1978, 1980 and 1981). In pressuring Nigerias Government to intervene, the Oyo State Government argued about its recurrence and pointed to the Ogunpa flood of 1980 as the most serious because it killed over 100 people, destroyed over 500 houses, and displaced over 50,000 people. It resulted from 10 hours torrential rain which exceeded the episode of 1978 (This Day News, 2004 cited in www.biafranigeriaworld.com). Therefore, the disaster left a legacy of fear in residents around sectors of Ibadan city that are liable to flooding during the rains (www.allafrica.com). The Ogunpa flood of 1980 and 1981 destroyed forest along the river Ogunpa (Oguntalla and Oguntoyibo, 1982). The flood of April 1978 attracted public interest in assessing the effectiveness of the channel (a structural measure) constructed by Oyo state government) to control the disaster. A study of the flood revealed that the disaster affected 75 %of respondents while 41 %of them each lost property valued at =N=2,960.00. The flood was attributed to poor drainage, heavy rains, poor waste disposal involving dumping of refuse into the river basin and faulty design, construction of the drainage channel that was reportedly shallower that required and building of houses, structures and roads in violation of standard town planning regulations (Areola and Akintola, 1980). Nigerias Government assisted the Oyo State Government in 1999 by awarding contracts worth =N=10 Billion for constructing another channel but the project completion scheduled for February 2003 was not achieved due to contractors abandonment of the project. Other losses arising from Ogunpa floods are as follows: displacement of over 1,000 residents, destruction of over 500 houses in the 1960 episode; killing of about 32 people and destruction of over 100 houses in 1978 (www.wikipedia.org). Richard O. Sule attributes the frequent flood in most of urban Nigeria to the way owners of urban land and houses violate town planning regulations thereby undermining master planning and mocks master planning of towns. The violation results in poor housing, poor urban conditions resulting from unauthorized building of extensions to existing houses to accommodate increasing household population or for renting out to commercial operators thereby combining residential and other uses within one house, coexistence of houses that are not approved by town planning authorities with approved ones in cities. Others are building of houses on 142

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drainage channels, areas susceptible to flood. These combine with heavy rains in southern Nigerian cities including Lagos, Ibadan, Calabar, Port Harcourt, Warri etc. Owing to these reasons especially rampant conversion of residential houses into commercial (and services) uses, he estimates that about 70% of southern Nigerian cities suffer flooding and inundation. His recent study of a sample showed that there was a high rate (74.5% of the total sample) of illegal conversion of residential land uses into mixed uses in Calabar city with the following equally high rates in different parts of the city ranging from 60 %on Chamley street, 72 %on Calabar Road, 80 %on Garden street and 85 %on Egerton street. There was also a high rate of illegal extension of existing houses by building additional rooms and/or structures for various uses: 53.3 %for strip accommodation, and 9.7 %for office spaces (Sule, 2008).

Disaster management by Nigerias national government and its limitations


The recent establishment of a national agency for managing disasters by the name National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) in has been hailed as an improvement over the previous public attitude of doing nothing about the annual recurrence of disasters. However, deficiencies in disaster management at the national level leading to its weakening include exclusion of issues related to disasters and emergency from Nigerias supreme laws packaged as the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, and the failure to allocate specific roles in the laws for the 774 Local Government Areas (i.e. local councils) as a means of providing some structure and direction for them to be involved in disaster management (Chinedu 2008: 37).

Flooding in Cross River State


Flooding has been frequent in Cross River State due to a combination of climatic, environmental, social and economic factors. Specifically, the poor human settlement (housing and urban) characteristics combine with heavy rainfall to cause frequent and damaging flooding in the states urban and non-urban areas. In Calabar South Local Government Area, an area forming part of the capital city of the state, frequent and enormous flooding has been occurring around the staff quarters of the Cross River University of Technology (CRUTECH) and has been attributed by M.A. Isong, a surveyor, to the construction of a flood-control structure in form of a channel of dimension: width of 9 metres to 10 metres and 2m depth, stretching from Calabar Municipality in the north to Calabar South Local Government Areas. He adds that the disaster results from incompatibility between the large flood water volume accumulated over the long distance traversed within the structure and its rather small dimensions is the result of poor design planning without professional feasibility studies (Isong (1999: 34). 143

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The Calabar urban region including two Local Government Areas (Calabar South and Calabar Municipality) is located adjacent the Atlantic Ocean and creeks and comprise low lying areas which are unsuitable for residential areas due to the susceptibility to flooding. Owing to high demographic rhythms, and rapid urbanization, poor urban characteristics residential areas created by mostly poor people who are seldom assisted by government with site and services designed to fill up the low lying areas in order to make them withstand the frequent flood. The recent climatic conditions of Calabar region include: high rainfall of 3,424.8mm in 1997 and humidity of 233.1mm in 2002 (National Bureau of Statistics 2006: 2-4) lasting several (frequently about four to 12) hours in a day translates into flood. Owing the disproportionately high proportion (about 79 per cent) of Nigerias urban residents in slums, most of the Calabar urban region is under the category of slums. This adds to the coastal location of the city, high intensity of rainfall to cause frequent flooding which is almost always reported in both academic and popular literature. In conformity with the views documented in the literature (e.g. UNEP 2007, (Bull-Kamanga et al, 2003), public enlightenment programmes of the Calabar Urban Development Authority (CUDA), i.e. the state government agency responsible for managing urban environmental sanitation constantly attribute the frequent flooding to obstruction of several open (road) drainage channels due to the way people fill them up with non-floatable, immovable waste matter leading to overflow of the water and flood. Residents of these low lying areas seem to experience flooding almost every time it rains and the cultural features of the urban areas block free flow of flood waters (CUDA, 2007).

Methods and data


We used the method of descriptive case study. This method of description has been considered suitable for a study of this type. It is good for investigating relatively new and/or ignored issues. It is a means of providing initial findings generate hypotheses that could employ more sophisticated quantitative methods (Oguniyi, 1991). The methods of gathering data that were used include focused (group) discussion, in-depth interview, observation and desk research in Cross River State. The subjects of our focused group discussion and in depth interview of residents of frequently flooded residential area and functionaries of the Emergency Management (Response) Agency of the Cross River State Government (CRSEMA) based in Calabar (the capital city) but working through out the state. The type of flood control measures used was studied both at the public sector and community settings or sectors and at the regional-ambit-level of the Cross River State and localized level of the Calabar city-region. To study the community level use of integrated non-structural and structural measures, we selected the most flooded part of Cross River State for studying the application of integrated nonstructural and structural measures of controlling flood because the higher intensity 144

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of flooding disaster in such an area should naturally challenge the various stakeholders (residents, public authorities e.g. Cross River State Emergency Management Agency (CRS-EMA) and so forth) to find the most effective solutions to the challenging disaster. Moreover, Nigerias public agencies including the CRS-EMA, habitually report claims of implementing effective programmes such as disaster responses only in the media without actually and practically doing so. Our use of desk research and review of the literature on environmental management assisted us to find the most frequently flooded part of the region from, which highlighted the most frequently flooded area to be: Palm Street and staff quarters of the Cross River University of Technology (CRUTECH), in Calabar South Local Government Area, Cross River State. Our decision to use a combination of data from primary and secondary sources was a strategy designed to appropriately address various subjects, stakeholders and issues, which could not be tackled by homogenous data or approaches. To study community flood resilience measures, we collected primary data comprised our undertaking of in-depth interview of residents of the study area was conducted soon after the recent (7 July 2009) flooding of some parts of the city, when flood frequently submerged residential buildings up to their windows thereby destroying property valued at several millions of US Dollars (Nigerian Chronicle 7-10 July, 2009). While this recent flooding provided an opportune time for our data collection because it aroused the willingness of the respondents (people most afflicted and affected by the disaster) to respond to our questions and requests for discussion, our data collection instruments were purposely designed to elicit historical data covering floods of the current rain-flood season to those that occurred previously up to about 20 years as long as the respondent could recollect. Secondary data use involved review of multiple-source literature on flood control by government agencies established and mandated by Federal and State Governments to respond to flooding and disasters in the study area. They include: the Emergency Management Agency of the Cross River State Government and the Cross River Basin Development Authority of the Federal Government of Nigeria. As stated earlier, this study assessed integrative use of structural and non-structural flood management measures in Cross River State. Under non-structural measures, we assessed the following issues: development of community-based flood risk reduction; development and use of disaster diplomacy; application and implementation of flood shelter; programmes for evacuation of flood victims generally and people with special needs and swift water rescue. Regarding structural measures, we assessed: the use of awareness-raising programmes on flood disasters; humanitarian programmes (e.g. First Aid); and behavioural changes (e.g. protection of household property in houses using locally improvised or devised techniques and so forth). 145

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Issues emphasized in data collection


The subjects of interest of our data collection from primary (focused group discussion and in depth interview) and secondary sources included two broad measures of strengthening flood resilience: First, the nature of community-based flood resilience programmes and institutions: questioned the nature or characteristics of community flood mitigation and adaptation programmes and institutions that have been in existence and have been used in the area, and their degree of emphasis of structural or non-structural approaches. Second, the extent of application of non-structural measures by government, community, civil society) were explored. Under the broad category of the integration of non-structural measures, we emphasized in the study of the community measures, we explored the following aspects including their underlying temporal, operational, spatial characteristics. To what extent has flood disaster diplomacy been applied by vulnerable /affected community? Has flood shelter been undertaken by any of the stakeholders? Where? When? How? Have flood shelter been practiced? Do special strata of the population of communities vulnerable to flood get evacuated when the disaster occurs? Where? When? How? Has Swift-water rescue measure ever been applied to save lives and property in the most vulnerable areas? Have formal educational (awareness-raising) programmes designed to strengthen flood resilience ever been organized or implemented? When? Where? How? Have humanitarian services ever been undertaken to enhance flood resilience? Where, when and how and who implemented it/them? What behavioural changes have been undertaken as part of flood resilience in the study area? What are specific features of the behaviour change? Who plans and implements them? Where (outdoors or indoors (?) and how are they implemented? Have legal instruments been developed and applied as means of protecting victims of flood disasters? To what extent has extreme poverty compelled people most vulnerable to flood to defy the disasters? How does this happen? Who (what are the characteristics) of the people involved?

Government agencies emphasis on structural flood control measures


Emphatic reliance on structural defences against flood has characterized flood management in Cross River State generally and in Calabar city in particular. Evidence of this includes construction of open channels designed to drain flood 146

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waters from various parts of the region. In Calabar city, one of the largest the channels stretches from Calabar Municipality in the northern part of the city-region to the south. The failure of these structural defences due to poor design-planning, construction and the adverse impacts on residents of the staff quarters in the Cross River University of Technology (CRUTECH) in Calabar South Local Government Area has been documented. They include: destruction of several lives and property valued at millions of US Dollars since the construction of the largest channels about 18 years ago (Isong, 1999: 30-37). Additionally, construction of structural measures to control flooding is one of the five actions or responses of the Cross River Basin Development Authority (CRBDA), one of the 12 of Nigerias public agencies for river resources environmental management responsible for the region. The CRBDA does not employ non-structural measures. Recent reports of the CRBDA shows that only structures for flood (and erosion) control were constructed in about nine locations in the state and environs (neighbouring Akwa Ibom State). They include: Federal Inland Revenue office, Calabar; Ikot Effanga, Ikot Omin and CR Basin town, Calabar. In Akwa Ibom state, they include: Ikot Edor Flood and Erosion Control Works in Onna, and Ikot Mbiet Ukpom Ikono Soil Erosion and Flood Control Works (Cross River Basin Development Authority, CRBDA (CRBDA, 2007: 12 and 24). Nowhere in the above report was the use of non-structural measures stated. This is evidence to show that they were ignored by the CRBDA.

Flood management in Cross River State


Implementation of flood resilience by the public sector (contrasted to community) management and control of flood and related disasters in Cross River State is the responsibility of specialized government agencies. First, Cross River Basin Development Authority, an agency established and funded by Nigerias Federal Government is concerned with physical implementation of construction works and structural measures. This is elaborated elsewhere in this paper. Second, the Emergency Management Agency (EMA-CRS), an agency established and funded by the Cross River State Government is concerned with responding to distress calls and reports of disaster occurrence in the state. Its features are similar to those of the national counterpart (EMA) funded by the Federal Government of Nigeria. The EMA-CRS mostly provides material and financial assistance to victims of disasters including flood after a report of the disaster has been received or the event is observed/noticed by staff of the agency. The Cross River State Government has complemented the efforts of the Federal Government (represented by the Cross River Basin Development Authority) by creating and deploying flood control agencies (frequently on ad hoc basis) to undertake specific projects and programmes designed to respond to flood disaster. 147

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Application of rudimentary non-structural measures by communities


The findings of our in-depth interview of residents of the most flooded area of the state (Cross River University of Technology staff quarters) showed as follows: Community-based flood management programmes have involved undertaking of non-structural measures but in a rather rudimentary ways. It involved building of structures such as smaller channels and balconies designed to convey floodwaters out of residential areas that are submerged in order to prevent flood from encroaching into them. Flood disaster diplomacy has also been undertaken in rudimentary ways in form of appeals by CRUTECH staff including administrators of the institution to functionaries of the State Emergency Agency (CRSEMA). Flood shelter has not been undertaken in a satisfactory way because building of new houses in the flood-afflicted areas seems to have stopped as new buildings are being increasingly constructed elsewhere without the intensity of flooding experienced in the old staff quarters. This is because more suitable land (i.e. without serious flooding) seems to be found elsewhere for new buildings that bear the same designs as those that have been allowing flood to devastate them in the quarters and environs. Evacuation of flood-afflicted people out of flood susceptible or prone areas occurred through abandonment of houses in the flood susceptible areas thereby leaving some houses to be uninhabited since 1991. Swift-water rescue is, by and large, unknown or practiced in rudimentary and informal ways. Informal practice of swift water rescue is performed by outstandingly courageous and agile individuals (artisanal fisher-people, traditional swimmers/divers and so forth) who may rarely possess/receive formal training in amphibious techniques. Formal educational (awareness-raising) programmes have never been organized or implemented. Humanitarian services have been rather informal, small-scale, restricted to sympathetic and empathetic gestures, visits and donations by persons and organizations with close ties (family friendship, religious and other forms of relationship) with people who are affected by flooding. Behavioural changes have manifested in form of adjustment to housing furnishing and equipment. For example, in the bid to avoid destruction of property, residents of flood afflicted areas have resorted to removing or displacing house furniture and equipment (carpets, mattresses, water-absorbing items, and so forth) to places of high elevation within (e.g. shelves, cupboards, etc) or without residential buildings. A very interesting innovative-solution is sand-filling of frequently over-flooded and submerged water closets, with sand-bags. 148

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Legal instruments for protecting victims of flood disasters seem to be inexistent or poor designed and implemented nationally and in the study area. This reflects the generally low level of development and practice of the rule of law and legal protection of citizens (apart from the elite) in Nigeria and the state. The seriousness of inequality, injustice to the poor majority (about 70-90 percent) of Nigerians has been profusely documented (e.g. Aguda, 1988). Defying flood by poverty-stricken people was common in the areas studied. In CRUTECH quarters, there have been several cases of people (including families) who are compelled to remain in flooded apartments and buildings and actually continue to sleep on raised or adjusted beds, cooking and other household facilities because of lack of alternative houses or buildings. Flooding happens to be one out of several adversities (e.g. lack of housing services: electricity, safe water, sanitation, police security, space, among others) that these poor people have to defy. One of the respondents, who has been a victim of series of flood events in CRUTECH residential quarters, described the incredible defiance exhibited by a woman working as a junior staff of CRUTECH, whose salary was below the poverty line (about US$50 per month). Owing to the poor salary earned by the woman, she had to share the domestic staff part of the senior staff residential buildings that had to be abandoned by the senior staff who was to reside in it due to recurrent and serious floods. Irrespective of the rising of flood waters to submerge the floor of the abandoned building, the poor woman and her daughter defied the dangers and continued living in the building! To move around the building, the poor woman and her child placed indissoluble materials (wood, waste metals and rubber) at various points on which they stepped! Recent reports of improvement in flood management in Nigeria at the national level occurred through the establishment of the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA) for addressing disasters generally. NEMA is striving to adopt five priorities embedded in the Hyogo Framework for Action, HFA (www.unisdr.org/eng/hfa). Public disaster management at sub-national levels (i.e. 36 states, Federal Capital Territory, and 774 Local Councils) has been performing poorly in terms of managing flooding. Disaster victims are rarely adequately compensated or if they are, delays occur and conditionality (such as loyalty to the ruling political party, among other strenuous obstacles) is imposed on the suffering people in the process. Flood victims especially those with special needs are rarely evacuated. There are no facilities, programmes, infrastructure and services for implementing evacuation. Frequent disasters perpetuate poverty and problems pertaining to socio-economic development in the near absence of legal instruments for disaster management. The law establishing NEMA and Nigerias 1999 Constitution failed to specify disaster management responsibilities for states, Federal territory and local councils (Chinedu 2008: 37). The disaster diplomacy 149

Discussion

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employed is not very participatory because it does not involve direct involvement of people affected by flood in the process of resolving their problem in ways that they best understand.

Why use of structural measures has achieved privileged status in the region
Our findings that structural measures have been emphasized in flood control in Cross River State suggests that it is also applied in most of Nigerias 36 states afflicted by the disaster due to several reasons. The Federal Government agency (the Cross River Basin Development Authority, CRBDA), which applies structural measures in the state is one of 12 counterparts (River Basin Development Authorities) which were created almost simultaneously to address similar problems encountered by most of the nations river basins. Second and arising from the foregoing, the ecological problems including flood disasters that have been afflicting Cross River State also applies to most of the nations river basins especially those located in the southern and coastal Nigeria, where Cross River State is located. Third, the literature cited in this paper show that the application of structural measures for flood control has been predominant (a kind of the paradigm) in the fields of disaster management globally. Therefore, its emphatic use by one of the 12 River Basin Development Authorities responsible for flood management in the study area demonstrates that it is most likely to be applied by the others due to their training in similar institutions and during the same era of knowledge of structural measures. Fourth, national institutions in Nigeria are customarily created based on homogenous characteristics especially reflection of an officially recognized principle called national character involving people originating from all the tribal groups that form Nigeria as staff of government ministries, departments and agencies. Fifth, part of the application of the paradigm of structural measures of flood management is the sharing of the method, like others, among all institutions that are concerned with a specific problem. Therefore, the use of structural measures by the CRBDA in Cross River State is most likely shared among peers (other River Basin Development Authorities) in the country especially those operating within the Niger Delta covering nine states and Nigerias southern coastal areas. Nigerias Minister of Environment recently attributed the cause of frequent flooding in Nigeria to the way people cause obstruction of open drainage systems by dumping refuse such as polyethylene bags remnants of potable water wrappers (sachets) that are commonly drunk by the poor people. This type of flooding was reported to occur across most of the coastal cities of southern Nigeria including Lagos in the south western, and Port Harcourt in the south eastern end, which is near Calabar (the study area) www.AllAfrica.com 2008). This confirms the results of flooding of other urban centres in Nigeria and Africa (South Africa, Ghana, and so forth) associated with health hazards (Bull-Kamanaga et al, 2003). 150

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This study has drawn attention to the need for innovations including integration of non-structural measures to improve flood resilience in Nigeria. Urgently required are: policy change focusing on the integrative use of nonstructural measures to complement traditional (structural) approaches and community empowerment with knowledge, ideas, material and funding to deepen their use of the non structural measures to achieve flood resilience. The result also show that flood resilience in Calabar urban region and its local councils, Cross River State, like most of Nigeria has been poor. This has happened despite frequent floods. Public sector flood management at the various regional levels over-relies on structural measures and ignores, downplays and misunderstands the huge benefits of non-structural approaches and performs below the Hyogo Framework for Action standard. The channel constructed to resolve flooding in Calabar city turns out to aggravate flooding due to its poor design-planning and construction. Contrastingly, community-based flood management employ non-structural measures but is hampered by inadequacy of resources (funding, skills/knowledge etc) due to the dominance of Nigerias economy by the public sector, which over-relies on export of petroleum oil and gas for deriving national revenue. We recommend that there is ample scope for Nigerias civil society to draw from its knowledge, skills, experience and networks to improve flood management in the study area and country. This should strive towards integration of structural measures with innovative non-structural approaches and partnerships among various sectors (governments, civil society, communities, faith-based organization among others). Flooding aggravates gross inadequacy of housing in the areas studied.

Conclusion

Civil societys role in integrating non-structural measures to promote flood resilience in Nigeria
At global level, civil society has been credited with promoting environmental governance by increasing the number of stakeholders (community, private sector, in addition to governments-which dominated hitherto) participating in decision about environmental issues. Well documented are success stories of civil societys innovative resolution of problems of sustainable development generally, and environmental-ecological restoration in particular. A significant outcome of the civil society-engineered environmental governance is the increasing voice of the other stakeholders that have improved the quality and participation of stakeholders in environmental decision making (WRI, UNDP, UNEP, and World Bank, 2003: 65-88). While the role of Nigerian civil society in local environmental governance may not have increased as desired or commensurate with the enormity of problems afflicting the local environment, and the pioneering mass movement by the Ogonis campaign against environmental degradation by petroleum oil producing companies (Handmer and Wisner), recent developments 151

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indicate increasing appreciation of their role in improving flood resilience in the country. This was recently reflected in the coalition of civil society to increase their voice in environmental policy and decision making in form of a national coalition of civil society organizations committed to promoting environmental governance namely: The Access Initiative (TAI) Nigeria. The credibility of TAINigeria is founded on its membership of global coalition of civil society called The Access Initiative (TAI-Worldwide) hosted by the Washington, D.C-based organization called the World Resources Institute (WRI). The TAI global network and their concentration on meritorious promoting environmental governance recommended for adaptation to future climate change concept of responding to disasters (Adger, Arnell and Tomkins, 2005) and also endorsed by international organizations (UNDP, UNEP. World Bank and WRI, 2005). The global network is currently operating in nearly 50 countries worldwide. The TAI Nigeria is also in the membership of the African Regional The Access Initiative (TAI-Africa) (www.theaccessinitiative.org, www.wri.org, www.acode.org). Moreover, TAI Nigerias leading civil society partner (the Centre for Research and Action on Developing Locales, Regions and the Environment, CRADLE) is experienced in disaster management partnership with the International Sociological Association, flood professionals and so forth. The Access Initiative (Nigeria) provides a sound foundation for promoting flood resilience under the ongoing environmental governance work in Nigeria. Moreover, the TAI methodology involves compelling Nigerian civil society organizations to work and engage with multiple stakeholders (local communities, publics, and so forth) provides a good basis for assisting the stakeholders through capacity building on non-structural flood management and their integration into existing structural flood management programmes. The suitability of TAI Nigeria in promoting flood resilience in the country is the strategic placement of the civil society to draw skills, knowledge, experience, and human capital from its global partnership with local communities, and also learning from other continental regional coalitions which have in addressing flood and disasters. Moreover, the TAI methodology has been standardized to hold governments accountable for failure to promote publics access to information, justice (redress), public participation and capacity building. With these resources, TAI Nigeria holds promises to assist in coordinating efforts made by other stakeholders (government agencies, businesses and communities) to promote flood resilience as it has promoted environmental governance in nearly 50 countries around the world. The frequent flooding of CRUTECH staff quarters raises to high pedestal the urgent need for government ministries, departments and agencies to hearken to advice of civil society when a wrong choice is made of sites for development into residential areas. Promotion of flood resilience requires prompt engagement of civil society with government agencies to understand and assess the suitability and appropriateness of residential areas choices in order to avoid flooding in future. 152

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Proposing the role of donor agencies in promoting flood resilience


The foregoing conditions especially the enormity of flooding and related disasters and the creation of a national civil society coalition (The Access Initiative) provide potentials on which donor and funding organizations should contribute towards promoting flood resilience in Nigeria, where flooding has historically devastated large vulnerable populations. Donor and funding organizations should appreciate and exploit the multi-stakeholder partnership provided by the TAI methodology and be assured that funds donated would be applied to flood resilience activities required by communities where the impacts are most acute. The enormous adverse consequences of flooding in Nigeria require the foregoing collaborative approach between civil society and various international governmental and funding organizations. For example, the United Nations agencies (HABITAT or United Nations Centre for Human Settlements, UNCHS, World Bank, among others) have mandates in improving residential areas and economic conditions.
Acknowledgement: The author gratefully acknowledges funding from the Centre for Research and Action on Developing Locales, Regions and the Environment (CRADLE) for implementing the research on which this article was written; the 2009 UN-sponsored conference on urban flood (www.urbanflood.org) for inspiring the research and accepting a poster of an earlier version of the research. Thanks are due to two anonymous reviewers whose suggestions enriched the article. Any deficiencies in the paper are the responsibility of the authors. REFERENCES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. Adger, WN (1999) Social vulnerability to climate change and extremes in coastal Vietnam. World Development, Vol. 27: 249-269. Adger WN, Arnell NW, and Tomkins EL (2005, Successful adaptation to climate change across scales, Global Environmental Change, 15: 77-86. Adger, N (2000), Social and ecological resilience: are they related? Progress in Human Geography, Vol. 24, No. 3: 347-364. African Ministerial Conference on the Environment (AMCEN) and United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (2008), Africa: Atlas of our changing Environment, Valletta: Progress Press. Aguda, A (1988), Law and Justice (in) Nigeria (An inaugural lecture delivered at Ondo State University, 13 April), Ado-Ekiti: Ondo State University Press. Akpokodje, EG (1998), Environmental degradation and human welfare: New challenges For Geologists. Port Harcourt: University of Port Harcourt. Areola, O and Akintola, E.O (1980), Managing the urban environment in a developing country: The Ogunpa river channelisation scheme in Ibadan City, Nigeria, Environment International, Vol. 3, and Issue 3: 237-241.

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26. Ingwe R Adalikwu RA and Ering SO (2010) International organizations and community development in Nigeria: The case of United Nations Development Programme in Cross River State, south eastern Nigeria (Unpublished paper, CRADLE, Calabar. 27. IRIN, www.irinnews.org/reports.aspx?Reportld=8622 (uploaded 16 November 2009). 28. ISDR (2004) Living with risks: A Review of Disaster Education Initiatives. Geneva: International Secretariat for Disaster Reduction. 29. Isong, MA (1999). An analysis of flooding in Polycal and the environs, International Journal of Tropical Environment, Vol. 1, No. 1, June: 28-37. 30. Kelman, I (2007) Reliance on structural approaches increases disaster risks, Version 1, 26 July (Retrieved from the web at: http://www.ilankelman.org/miscellany/structuralDefences.rtf). 31. Kelman, I (2001), The Autumn 2000 Floods in England and Flood Management, Weather, Vol. 56, No. 10: 346-8, 353-60. 32. Kelman, I (2008a) Myths of Hurricane Katrina, Disaster Advances, Vol. 1, No. 1, January: 40-6. 33. Kelman, I (2008b) Lessons relearned from Katrina? (Guest Editorial), American Journal of Disaster Medicine, Vol. 3, No. 2, March/April: 1-2. 34. Kelman, I and Gaillard, JC (2008). Planning Climate Change within Disaster Risk Reduction, Disaster Advances, Vol/ 1, No. 3, July: 2-5. 35. Leurs AL, Lobell DB, Sklar LS, Addams CL, Matson PA (2003), A method for quantifying vulnerability applied to the agricultural systems of the Yaqui Valley of Mexico. Global Environmental Change. Vol. 13: 255-265. 36. Lewis, J (1999), Development in disaster-prone places: Studies of vulnerability, Intermediate Technology Publications. 37. Mileti, D and 136 contributing authors (1999) Disaster by design: A reassessment of natural hazards in the United States, Washington, DC: Joseph Henry Press. 38. Munich Re. (2004) Topics 2/2004. IFRS-New Accounting Standards Flood Risks. Rising costs of bodily injury claims. Munich Re Group. Munich. 39. Munich Re (2006) Topics Geo Annual Review: Natural Catastrophe 2005. Munich Group. Munich. 40. Nigeria, Federal Republic of (2007) Official Gazette, Vol. 94. No. 24, Lagos: Federal Government Printer, 15 May. 41. Ogunniyi, MB (1992) Understanding research in the social sciences. Ibadan: University press PLC. 132pp. 42. Sen J. (2007) The power of civility, in: Global civil society: More or less democracy? Development dialogue, No. 49, November: 51-68. 43. Sen J (1984) Criminalisation of the poor and Rules without Alternatives, Indian Express (New Delhi), 10 and 11 August. 44. State Planning Commission (of the Cross River State Government) (2008) Cross River State Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (CR-SEEDS-2) 2008-2012. Calabar: State Planning Commission. 45. State Planning Commission (2005) Cross River State Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy (CR-SEEDS) 2005-2007. Calabar: State Planning Commission. 46. Sule, RAO 2008. Sustainable Urban Physical Development Planning in Nigeria: A Shift in Paradigm. Calabar, New York: Thumbprints.

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47. Odedele, M and Egotannwa, M (1999) Basic facts in general social studies for Junior Secondary Schools (JSS). 48. Oguntalla, AB and Oguntoyibo, JS (1982) Urban flooding in Ibadan: A diagnosis of the problem,Urban Ecology, Vol. 1: 39-46. 49. OKeefe P, Westgate K, and Wisner B (1976) Taking the natural ness out of natural disasters, Nature, Vol. 260: 266-567. 50. Oliver-Smith T (1986) The Martyred City: Death and rebirth in the Andes, Albuquerque: University of New Mexico Press. 51. Peterson, GD (2000) Scaling ecological dynamics: self-organisation, hierarchical structure and ecological resilience. Climate Change, Vol. 44, 291-309. 52. Salau, AT (1993) Environmental Crisis and Development in Nigeria. Port Harcourt: University of Port Harcourt Press. 53. Tobin, GA (1995) The Levee Love Affair: A stormy relationship, Water Resources Bulletin, Vol. 31, No. 3: 359-367. 54. Tompkins EL, and Adger WN (2004) Does adaptive management of natural resources enhance resilience to climate change ? Ecology and Society, Vol. 9, 2, 55. Turner BLI, Kasperson RE, Matson PA, McCarthy JJ, Cornell RW, Christensen L, Eckley C, Kasperson JX, Leurs A, Martello ML, Polsky C, Pulsipher A, Schiller A (2003) A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences US 100. 8074-8079. 56. World Resources Institute (WRI), United Nations Development (UNDP), United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and World Bank. (2005) The Wealth of the Poor: Managing Ecosystems to Fight Poverty (Washington, DC: WRI: 201. 57. World Resources Institute (WRI), United Nations Development (UNDP), United Nations 58. Environment Programme (UNEP), and World Bank. 2002 2004. Decisions for the Earth: Balance, voice and power), (Washington, DC: WRI): 263, 258-9. 59. UNDP (2004) Reducing disaster risk: A challenge for development. New York, NY: United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Retrieved on 19 June 2007 from the web at: http://undp.org/bcpr/whats_new/rdr_english.pdf. 60. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) (2007) Global Environment Outlook GEO4: environment for development. Valletta: Progress Press Ltd. 61. World Bank (2009) http://siteresources.worldbank.org/DPP ENV Data...) 62. World Bank (1990) Towards the development of an environmental action plan for Nigeria. Washington, D.C.: World Bank (Report No. 9002-UNI). 63. www.acode.org. 64. www.AllAfrica.com (uploaded 8 August 2008, retrieved 15 November 2009) 65. www.onesky.ca. 66. www.ngcradle.org. 67. www.theaccessinitiative.org. 68. www.wri.org. 69. www.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogunpa River 70. www.biafranigeriaworld.com/archive/2004/mar/.../01808html 71. www.allafrica.com.

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THE SNOW CONDITION, THE AVALANCHES CAUSED AND THE DYNAMIC OF THE AVALANCHES CORRIDORS DURING THE WINTER 2007-2008. CASE STUDY, PADINILE FRUMOASE (PIATRA CRAIULUI MOUNTAINS, ROMANIA)
ANCA MUNTEANU1, NARCISA MILIAN2, LAURA COMNESCU1, AL. NEDELEA1
Abstract. - The snow condition, the avalanches caused and the dynamic of the avalanches corridors during the winter 2007-2008. Case study, Padinile Frumoase (Piatra Craiului Mountains, Romania). In this paper we aim to present in detail the situations generated by meteorological and morphological parameters, which determined the generation of avalanches of different intensities, on five avalanches corridors in the winter 2007-2008. These are situated in the area named Padinile Frumoase, in the north-eastern part of the Piatra Craiului Mountains, which are situated in the central part of Romania and which belong to the Meridional Carpathians. The relief is represented by a calcareousconglomeratic ridge, in the high part, the peak reaches over 2000 m altitude. Local conditions determine the forming of avalanches, which are oriented on well defined corridors, along the temporary hydrographic network. By studying the evolution of meteorological parameters and their overlapping with local morphological parameters, the existence of some favourable conditions for the apparition of avalanches were detected. There were noticed both active corridors with traces of avalanches, and inactive corridors on which it was not noticed the manifestation of these phenomena. The material adds up to the data base about the avalanches from this massif, being the second situation of analysed avalanches for this mountainous space totally situated in the National Park Piatra Craiului. KEY WORDS: avalanches, avalanches corridors, snow, meteorological parameters, Padinile Frumoase, Piatra Craiului Mountains

Faculty of Geography, University of Bucharest, Romania, N. Balcescu Avenue 1, Bucharest, Romania, e-mail: munteanca@yahoo.com 2 National Meteorological Administration, Regional Service of Weather Forecast Sibiu, Somesului St. 49, Sibiu, Romania, nmilianro@yahoo.com

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1. Introduction This paper analyzes the snow condition and the evolution of meteorological parameters that triggered the avalanches in the Piatra Craiului Mountains (the Southern Carpathians, lying in the central part of Romania) during the winter of 2007-2008. The avalanches are natural phenomena occurring frequently in the Carpathian Mts., reported in various studies (Cmpean, Cmpean, 2010; Constantinescu, 2006, 2009; Covsnianu et al. 2011; Mooiu, 2008; Mooiu, Munteanu, 2006; Munteanu 2004, 2009; Munteanu, Constantinescu, 2006; Munteanu, Mooiu 2006; Munteanu, et. al. 2011 a, 2011 b, 2012; Voiculescu, 2002, 2004, Voiculescu et al. 2010).

Fig. 1 The location of the study area within the Piatra Craiului Mountains and Blea Lac and Postvaru meteorological stations and within Romania and Europe The study area consists of five avalanche chutes, lying in the Padinile Frumoase area, on the eastern slope of the Piatra Craiului Mountains (Fig. 1). The topography of the massif is represented by a calcareous-conglomeratic ridge, trending northeast-southwest, having two asymmetric slopes, one to the east and the other to the west. The general morphology is given by the location of this area 158

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on the western flank of the Piatra Craiului Syncline. In the upper part, the ridge exceeds 2000 m altitude. The local conditions encourage the formation of avalanches, which slide on clearly defined tracks, overlapping the temporary streams. The length of these tracks ranges from 1150 to 630 m, while the extreme elevations are 2150 m (the Ascuit peak), lying on the main ridge, and 1330 m, at the base of the avalanche deposition zone. On the entire eastern slope, the avalanche tracks have been numbered from north to south, according to their sequence. Because these valleys do not have names, we have used their corresponding number in this sequence, i.e. from 8 to 12. The area is crossed by a marked tourist trail connecting the Curmtura chalet with the tourist shelter lying on the Ascuit peak and further with the trail following the main ridge (Mooiu, Munteanu, 2006; Munteanu 2004, 2009; Munteanu, Constantinescu, 2006; Munteanu, Mooiu 2006). During the winter of 2007-2008, the five avalanche chutes experienced a number of avalanches, most of them triggered by the sudden warming recorded in February. By studying the evolution of meteorological parameters (the quantity and structure of snow, temperature, precipitations) and their overlapping with local morphological parameters, the existence of some favourable conditions for the apparition of avalanches were detected. Based on an important quantity of accumulated snow, a period with positive temperatures, of over 10o, was recorded in February, and it created the un-stabilization of snow layers, favouring the producing of avalanches. For this reason, we have made a complex analysis of the evolution of the meteorological parameters along the entire season, making the necessary correlations with the effects observed in the field. 2. Data and methods Because the Piatra Craiului Mountains do not have a weather station of their own, we have used the data recorded at the meteorological stations Blea Lac and Postvaru, lying in the adjacent mountains. The parameters we have taken into account are the following: the air temperatures recorded at 6 and 12 hours GMT, the maximum and minimum air temperatures, wind direction and velocity, the degree of cloudiness, the daily amount of precipitation (solid and liquid), and the snow thickness. The evolution of these parameters has been integrated in the Geliniv 2.10 software. We have analyzed the weather conditions for the entire winter season, from November 2007 to June 2008, but we paid particular attention to February 2008, when most avalanches discussed in this study occurred. The data regarding the structure, the thickness and the distribution of the snow cover were collected in the field by the members of the Zrneti Mountain Rescue Service. Most of the snow profiles were accomplished by using the French methodology, simplified for the use of mountain rescuers. We have compared the 159

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structure and the thickness of the snow in the Piatra Craiului Mountains with the more detailed profiles accomplished at the Blea Lac and Postvarul weather stations, located in the Fgra and Postvarul Mountains, respectively. The snow and the weather parameters have been correlated with the Geliniv 2.10 application and the Crocus Mepra PC, developed by CEN Meteo, France. The synoptic data were drawn from the satellite imagery. For the meteorological diagnosis, we employed the data recorded at the weather stations. In the end, we have developed a map of the avalanche chutes based on the Ikonos 2004 satellite image. In order to do this, we have relied on our studies in the field, as well as on topographic maps, aerial photographs and the pictures taken during the field campaigns. The use of GIS techniques and analysis has taken into account the existing literature (Barry 2008; Bellaire and Schweizer 2011; Cappabianca and others, 2008; Cmpean and Cmpean 2010; Covsnianu and others, 2011; Decaulne and Saemundsson, 2006; Ludkvist 2005; McClung, 2008; McClung and Schaerer 2008; Pudasaini, Hutter 2007; Sekiguchi and others, 2005; Simenhois, Birkeland 2010; Voiculescu, 2002, 2004; Voiculescu and others, 2010). For this study, we have also used the information collected from all those who have witnessed the occurrence of an avalanche, i.e. chalet keepers, mountain rescuers, foresters or climbers. On February 28, 2008, the Curmtura chalet keeper managed to witness the development of one of the most important avalanches in the winter of 2007-2008.

3. Results and discussion


In order to understand the context in which the avalanches in the Padinile Frumoase area occurred, we further present the evolution of the meteorological parameters during that winter season. The evolution of weather parameters and the snow condition during the winter of 2007-2008 (October 2007-June 2008), in the area of the Fgra and Postvarul mountains The Postvarul weather station The first snowfalls of the 2007-08 winter season occurred on 12-13 and 2022 October, when snow cover reached 2 cm and 16 cm, respectively, but melted rapidly away in the next few days. From November 4 until November 20, the sky was generally overcast and it rained; consequently, the snow thickness grew progressively, from 10 cm in the first day to 88 cm on November 21, which actually was the highest value recorded that month. The most important snow amount (37 cm) accumulated from the afternoon of November 18 until the next morning. This white blanket lasted until May 12, 2008, the date that marked the 160

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end of the snow season. The maximum thickness of the snow cover was 130 cm, a value recorded in the first decade of April (Fig. 2). The lowest air temperatures dropped to 21.20C below zero in the second decade of February, while the maximum ones rose to 15.40C in the second decade of October. This winter has seen significant variations of the air temperature in a very short time (1 or 2 days) (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2 The evolution of nivometeorological parameters for the period December 2007-April 2008 at Postvarul weather station (Geliniv application)

Fig. 3 The evolution of nivometeorological parameters for the period December 2007-April 2008 at Blea Lac weather station (Geliniv application)

The Blea Lac weather station The firs snowfalls of the 2007-08 winter season were recorded on September 8, when the snow cover reached 8 cm; until September 13 the thickness grew to 25 cm, but during the next three days all the snow melted away. Two other 161

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snowfall episodes occurred on October 14 (the snow melted away in two days) and October 19, when the thickness of the accumulated snow was significant (14 cm during the first day and a maximum thickness of 40 cm on October 22). Because of the rising temperatures, this snow layer also melted away progressively until November 1. The snowfalls recorded on November 5 gave birth to another snow layer (28 cm on the first day), which lasted on the meteorological site until June 10 (Fig. 3). The maximum thickness of the snow cover was 286 cm (on April 17), a value recorded at 00 hours UTC. For two and a half months, the snow was thicker that 200 cm, and for 20 days it exceeded 250 cm (Fig. 3).

a The snow layer thickness and the amount of precipitation in January 2008 at Blea Lac weather station

b The extreme temperatures, the wind and the meteorological phenomena Fig. 4 The nivometeorological synthesis for January 2008 at Blea Lac weather station

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The evolution of weather parameters and the snow condition at Blea Lac weather station in January and February 2008 January 2008 Except for the interval January 3-5, during the first decade of this month, the weather was generally cloudy, snowfalls have been scarce and fog was common. During the interval January 10-18, the weather was generally fair and the temperatures rose as high as 0.80C. From January 19-23, the weather was warm (maximum temperature 3.20C), but cloudy; fog was a common phenomenon, while the amount of precipitation was low. Then, the weather got cold (minimum temperatures as low as 150C below zero) and during January 26 and 27 it rained heavily (45 cm of wild snow) (Fig. 4). The maximum thickness of snow layer was 194 cm (on January 29) (Fig. 4 a). The sounding of January 24 undertaken on a southeastern-facing slope showed a high instability of the snow layer. On the surface, there was a wild snow layer, about 15 cm thick (created by the snowfalls of January 22-23), which was underlain by a wind slab structure, 10-15 cm thick; beneath there were 15 cm of snow having a very low resistance. Further to the base, the layer kept compact, having a high resistance and a significant volume. It was made up of fine particles, with faceted crystals with cup-shaped base (Fig. 5 a). The measurements of January 29 were made on a southeastern-facing slope. They highlighted a complex structure of the snow layer, as follows: on the base, layers consisting of cup-type crystals; in the middle part, fine crystals with plane facets, alternating with thin crusts; and to the surface, a consistent wild snow layer, about 30-40 cm thick, accumulated in the aftermath of the snowfalls of January 22-23 (Fig. 5 b).

(a) (b) Fig. 5 a, b The snow layer structure for January 2008 at Blea Lac weather station

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February 2008 During the first decade, the air temperatures kept relatively high, with maximum values of 20C and minimum ones generally ranging from 7 to 40C below zero. The sky was variable and precipitation was lacking. During the interval 1014, the weather was generally fair, but air temperatures varied: in the beginning, they dropped (the maximum values of 60C below zero being recorded on February 9 and 10), then they rose to 00C on February 11, to gradually drop later. Air temperatures continued to decrease even after February 14; the maximum values were 18.40C below the freezing point and the minimum ones were as low as 23.80C below zero. The sky was overcast and it snowed, so that until February 20, the snow blanket measured 33 cm. From then until the end of the month, it snowed only during the night of February 23-24. Air temperatures gradually grew, reaching positive values during the interval February 26-28 (40C), while the wind gained strength, sweeping and blowing away the snow. The maximum thickness of the snow layer was 200 cm, a value recorded on the morning of February 20 (Fig. 6).

a The snow layer thickness and the amount of precipitation in February 2008 at Blea Lac weather station

b The extreme temperatures, the wind and the meteorological phenomena Fig. 6 The nivometeorological synthesis for February 2008 at Blea Lac weather station

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Resistance and stratigraphic profiles accomplished on February 2008 at Blea Lac In comparison with the previous sounding, the gradient of the temperature inside the snow layer was medium and high, thus encouraging the formation of cup-type and plane-faced crystals. The sounding made on February 5 showed that although the snow density increased, the first 30-35 cm from the surface continued to have a low resistance, which made the layer highly unstable (Fig. 7 a).

(a)

(b)

(c) (d) Fig. 7 a, b, c, d The snow layer structure for February 2008 at Blea Lac weather station

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The precipitation fallen during the interval February 8-11 resulted in the accumulation of 8 cm of wild snow, covered with a thin layer of snow grains. Daytime temperatures reached 20C on February 6 and February 7, and consequently the liquid water percolated the upper layer. Thus, in the first 60 cm, the alterations induced by the low and medium gradients encouraged the formation of fine pellets and plane-faced crystals. Below this layer, the soundings indentified the structures revealed by the profile accomplished on February 5 (on the southeastern slope), which were responsible for the formation of a low resistance area lying at a depth of about 90-100 cm from the surface. Due to the high thickness and the huge snow mass, the layer did not turn into a potential instability plane (Fig. 7 b). Until the date of the next sounding (February 20), the weather got gradually cold and it snowed. Consequently, snow layer grew by 33 cm after the snowfalls recorded during the interval February 14-20. The first 40-50 cm showed a low resistance, being especially formed by fine and visible pellets, underlain by older wind slabs. The layer lying at the contact with the soil showed many cup-type crystals (Fig. 7 c). The gradual increase of the air temperatures until February 26 encouraged the slight increase of the cohesion between the wild snow grains identified in the upper part of the layer at the previous sounding; down below, the snow structure remained the same (Fig. 7 d). The evolution of the weather parameters and the snow condition at Postvarul weather station in February 2008 The first week was characterized by a generally fair weather, with relatively high maximum temperatures (positive values as high as 3.90C), but with low minimum values during the first nights (100C). Then, the weather began to cool and during the interval February 8-11, it snowed (3 cm of wild snow). The temperatures continued to drop in the third week of the month as well and, consequently, the weather became frosty; the thermometer sank as low as 16.20C (maximum value) and 21.20C (minimum value); during the interval 14-19 it snowed, the wind gained strength (12-20 m/s) and the pulver snow layer was 10 cm. During the last week, the weather was fair and air temperatures began to rise significantly (maximum values of 8.70C in two nights and slightly positive minimum values); the snow layer thickness decreased from 106 to 84 cm. The maximum thickness of the snow layer was 108 cm (during the intervals February 1-4 and 19-20) (Fig. 8). Resistance and stratigraphic profiles accomplished on February 2008 at Postvarul The first sounding of the month was performed on February 8. The layer showed a low resistance in the first 60 cm, being made up of 1 cm of wild snow, 166

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fine and faceted crystals and thin ice crusts. An instability level consisting of snow grains, deposited during the clear and cold nights at the beginning of the month, was identified 82 cm above the soil level (Fig. 9 a). This fact was highlighted by the stability test (Fig. 9 b).

a The snow layer thickness and the amount of precipitation in February 2008 at Postvaru weather station

b The extreme temperatures, the wind and the meteorological phenomena Fig. 8 The nivometeorological synthesis for February 2008 at Postvaru weather station

At the next sounding (February 14), the layer displayed a low resistance in the first 20 cm, which were made up of fine crystals and a thin wild snow layer, accumulated during the snowfall that occurred on that very day. Below, the sounding revealed the existence of several layers consisting of fine and plane-faced crystals, as well as of thin crusts (Fig. 9 c). 167

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On February 21, the surface layer (30 cm), made up of a relatively recent pulver snow cover, deposited during the snowfalls that had occurred in the previous days, and a layer of fine pellets, showed a low resistance. Beneath this layer, there was a crust that acted like a sliding plane for the overlying snow. Deep down, as low as the soil level, the sounding revealed the presence of several thin crusts and layers made up of fine pellets (Fig. 9 d).

(a)

(b)

(c) (d) Fig. 9 a, b, c, d The snow layer structure for February 2008; test of stability at Postvarul weather station

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The estimation of avalanche risk for the area of the Fgra Mountainsin January and February 2008 For January 2008: At elevations higher than 1800 m, the avalanche risk levels 5 and 1 were not estimated; the other risk levels were estimated to have the following percentages: risk level 4 9.7%, risk level 3 16.1% and risk level 2 74.2% At elevations lower than 1800 m, the avalanche risk level 5 was not estimated; the other risk levels had the following contribution: risk level 4 9.7%, risk level 3 16.1%, risk level 2 71.7% and risk level 1 3.2%. Until January 24, due to the gradual increase of air temperatures, which however remained negative, and the lack of precipitation, the snow layer became stable; the estimated risk was moderate (2). Yet, during the last days of the month the avalanche risk increased because of the higher amounts of precipitation and the significant temperature variations (of 10-150C in 24 hours). Consequently, the avalanche risk was estimated at 3-level and later at 4-level. For February 2008: At elevations higher than 1800 m, the avalanche risk levels 5 and 1 were not estimated; the other risk levels were estimated to have the following percentages: risk level 4 3.5%, risk level 3 72.1% and risk level 2 24.4% At elevations lower than 1800 m, the avalanche risk level 5 and 1were not estimated; the other risk levels had the following contribution: risk level 4 3.5%, risk level 3 16.1%, risk level 3 35.5% and risk level 2 6.2%. The avalanche risk gradually declined from high (4) in the first day of the month, to moderate (2), and then it grew again to 3 (significant) after the snowfalls of February 16 and stayed so for the rest of the month, because the temperatures became positive. The avalanches in the Padinile Frumoase area Due to the meteorological context described above for the winter season 2007-2008, avalanches occurred on each of the sliding paths mentioned previously. On the avalanche chutes number 8 and 11, the snow sliding was encouraged by the warming intervals of February, while on the tracks 9, 10 and 12, which did not experience avalanche phenomena in February, one could note small melting avalanches in March and April, which were also due to the warming weather (Fig. 10 and 11). On track 8, an avalanche occurred on February 2, 2008. This was the first to occur on the northernmost of all the five avalanche chutes of the Padinile Frumoase area. This valley exhibits a gorges sector, cut into conglomerates, downstream of which there are debris fans made up of elements from collapses and older avalanches. The gorges have the appearance of three short narrow bends (6-9 m wide), the thalwegs of which shelters scree particles of various sizes. Upstream 169

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the gorge, the valley widens (50-60 m); here, one can see a large talus cone, developed at the base of a structural threshold lying in the long profile of the avalanche chute. Upstream the threshold, the valley is wide (40-60 m) and is flanked by patches of forest. It is formed by the junction of two main valleys originating in the avalanche-starting zone. The valley is more than 600 m long and the vertical difference between the headwaters and its mouth is more than 450 m (1950-1500 m).

Fig. 10 The Padinile Frumoase area The general map showing the avalanche chutes and the location of the investigated plots

Fig. 11 The traces left by the avalanches that occurred on February 2008 along the tracks number 8 and 11

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The avalanches occurring along this valley are seasonal. There is at least one every winter, the size of which differs according to the specific meteorological conditions of the respective year. The one that occurred during the analyzed span of time affected only the bottom of the valley. It started in the catchment area, transported the dislodged material along the sliding track and deposited most of it at the base of the talus cone lying upstream the gorges. A small amount managed to advance even downstream the gorge sector (Fig. 10). Another avalanche that occurred in February affected track number 11. This avalanche chute is represented by a main valley, which to the headwaters splits into several small and flat-bottomed valleys. It develops between 2070 and 1470 m altitude, on a vertical difference of 600 m, having a length of about 700 m and mean widths of 60-70 m (Fig. 10). The tracks number 9, 10 and 12 are bigger, but the avalanches that occurred here during the analyzed interval were less significant, being represented only by melting avalanches, which did not impact large areas, as it was the case with other years, too (Mooiu and Munteanu, 2006) (Fig. 10). The situations discussed previously show the relationship that exists between avalanche occurrence and weather conditions. The avalanche risk must necessarily be taken into account because the sliding snow can take by surprise the tourists that follow the existing trails. At the same time, the avalanches have a devastating effect on the forest vegetation. Conclusions The analysis of the meteorological parameters for the entire winter season 2007-2008 shows synthetically how their evolution affected the avalanche occurrence. A major feature of that winter was the alternation of snowfalls and warm spells. The local morphology of the five avalanche chutes encourages snow deposition. Avalanches may be triggered by the rising temperatures, provided that the snow cover and its structure are adequate. The investigated profiles suggested that the snow layer had a typical evolution that was conducive to avalanche occurrence. But even though such conditions are present throughout the area, the avalanches do not occur simultaneously on all the valleys, and their size differs. The study brings its contribution to the improvement of the meteorological database regarding the winter of 2007-2008, as well as to the understanding of the avalanches occurring in this mountain massif, which lies entirely on the territory of the Piatra Craiului National Park.
Acknowledgements This work was supported by the strategic grant POSDRU /89/1.5/S/ 58852, Project Program for postdoctoral researchers in science education, co-financed by the European

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Social Fund within the Sectoral Operational Program Human Resources Development 20072013, and the project: Evaluation and Monitoring of Avalanche Risk in the Context of Mountain Environment Organising and Planning. Case Study Fagaras and Piatra Craiului Mountains, financed by CNSIS, category IDEI. We wish to express our appreciation to all those who supported us in the documentary and field investigations: the Administration of the Piatra Craiului National Park, the Rescue Service in Zarnesti, Margareta and Vasile Dic from Curmatura chalet keepers and the members of the Liliecii Brasov NGO. REFERENCES Barry, R. G. (2008), Mountain weather and climate, Cambridge University Press, 506 p. 2. Bellaire S., SchweizeR J. (2011), Measuring spatial variations of weak layer and slab properties with regard to snow slope stability, Cold Regions Science and Technology, 65, pp. 234241. 3. Cappabianca F., Barbolini M., Natale L. (2008), Snow avalanche risk assessment and mapping: A new method based on a combination of statistical analysis, avalanche dynamics simulation and empirically-based vulnerability relations integrated in a GIS platform, Cold Regions Science and Technology, 54, pp. 193205. 4. Cmpean O.N., Cmpean I. (2010), Riscul de avalan n Carpa ii romneti. Studiul de caz Mun ii Fgra (sezonul 2008-2009), Riscuri i catastrofe 9(2), pp. 103-111. 5. Constantinescu T. (2006), Erosion surface in Piatra Craiului Ridge, Reserch in Piatra Craiului National Park 2, Ed. Universitii Transilvania, Braov, pp. 28-37. 6. Constantinescu T. 2009. Piatra Craiului Studiu geomorfologic, Ed. Universitara Bucuresti, 163 p. 7. Covsnianu A., Grigora I.R., State L.E., Balin D., Hoga S., Balin I. (2011), Mapping Snow Avalanche Risk using GIS Technique and 3D Modeling. Case Study- Ceahlau National Park, Rom. Journ. Phys., Bucharest, 56( 34), pp. 476483. 8. Decaulne Armelle, Saemundsson T. (2006), Geomorphic evidence for present-day snow-avalanche and debris-flow impact in the Icelandic Westfjords, Geomorphology, 80, pp. 8093. 9. Ludkvist M. (2005), Accident Risk and Environmental Assessment. Development of an Assessment Guideline with Examination in Northen Scandinavia, Geografiska regionstudier, 65, Uppsala, 204 p. 10. McClung D.M. (2008), Risk-based land-use planning in snow avalanche terrain, Comptes rendus de la 4e Confrence canadienne sur les gorisques: des causes la gestion. Proceedings of the 4th Canadian Conference on Geohazards: From Causes to Management. Presse de lUniversit Laval, Qubec, pp. 41-54. 11. McClung D.M., Schaerer P. (2006), The Avalanche Handbook, Ed. 3, Seattle, WA, The Mountaineers, p. 345. 12. Mooiu Maria Dana (2008), Avalane i impactul lor asupra mediului. Studii de caz n Carpaii Meridionali, Ed. Proxima, Bucureti, 280 p. 1.

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13. Mooiu Maria Dana, Munteanu Anca (2006), Large Avalanches On The Eastern Slope Of The Piatra Craiului Massif In March 2005, Reserch in Piatra Craiului National Park 3, Ed. Universitii Transilvania, Braov, pp. 44-66. 14. Munteanu Anca (2004) The morphological aspects of the avalanche couloirs on the east part of Piatra Craiului ridge between Turnu and Ascutit peaks, Analele Universiti de Vest din Timioara, Geografie, 14, pp. 93-100. 15. Munteanu Anca (2009), Mofodinamica actuala, riscuri si hazarde naturale n Masivul Piatra Craiului, (Tez de doctorat, Universitatea Bucureti), 282 p. 16. Munteanu Anca, Constantinescu T. (2006), Geomorphological aspects in Prpstiilor Valley Hydrological Bassin (Piatra Craiului National Park), Research in Piatra Craiului National Park, 3, Ed. Universitii Transilvania, Braov, pp. 44-66. 17. Munteanu Anca, Mooiu Maria Dana (2006), The avalanchses impact into the antrophic activities on the Piatra Craiului Easten Slope, Analele Universiti de Vest din Timioara, Geografie, 16, pp. 113-126. 18. Munteanu Anca, Nedelea A., Comnescu Laura (2011 a), The dynamics of the snow avalanche affected areas in Piatra Mica Mountains (Romania), Comptes Rendus Geoscience, Elsevier, 343, pp. 691700. 19. Munteanu Anca, Nedelea A. Comnescu Laura, Gheorghe Ctlina (2011 b), The dynamics of slopes affected by avalanches in Piatra Craiului Massif Southern Carpathians, International Journal of the Physical Sciences, 6(7), pp. 1720-1731. 20. Munteanu Anca, Nedelea A., Milian Narcisa (2012), Avalanele - cond ii, tipuri, riscuri, Ed. Universitar, Bucureti, 195 p. 21. Pudasaini S.P., Hutter K. (2007), Avalanche Dynamics: Dynamics of Rapid Flows of Dense Granular Avalanches, Springer Verlag, 602 p. 22. Sekiguchi T., Sato H., Akyama K. (2005), Geomorphological Feature of Avalanache Furrows in Heavy Snow Region in Japan, Buletin of the Geographical Survay Institute, 52, pp. 37-47. 23. Simenhois R., Birkeland K. (2010), Meteorological and Environmental Observations from Three Glide Avalanche Cycles and the Resulting Hazard Management Technique, Proceedings of the 2010 International Snow Science Workshop, Squaw Valley, California, 6 p. 24. Voiculescu M. (2002), Fenomene geografice de risc n Masivul Fgra, Brumar, Timioara, 231 p. 25. Voiculescu M. (2004), About the morphometrical characteristics of couloir avalanches on Blea Capra area, Analele Universitati de Vest din Timisoara, Geografie 14, pp. 193-206. 26. Voiculescu M., Onaca A., Milian Narcisa, Ardelean F., Trk M. and Stancescu Mihaela (2010), Analysis of snow avalanche from Mars 07, 2007 within the CaltunNegoiu Area, in the Fagaras Massif (Southern Carpathians), Analele Universitatii din Oradea Seria Geografie, 20(1), pp. 22-33. 27. *** 2008. Bilanul nivologic al sezonului de iarn 2007-2008, Administraia Naional de Meteorologie, Bucureti, 176 p.

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WATER INTERFERENCES: DEFINITION, LOCATION, NATURE OF PROCESS AND INDUCED EFFECTS WITH APPLICATIONS IN ROMANIA (I)
V. SOROCOVSCHI1, R. BTINAS2
Abstract. - Water Interferences: definition, location, nature of process and induced effects with applications in Romania. In the first part of the paper defines the interference term retention, location and origin of the water that interferes and generates a special category of hazards fluid. Next, have been identified, analyzed and detailed localized, depending on their nature (physical, chemical and mechanical) phenomena and processes underlying this category of hazards fluid and environment effects that induce the different environments in Romania (continental, marine and coastal). Territorial analysis and interference effects they induce in the end allowed the work to delimit affected areas similar to Romania this category waterborne hazards. Regionalization of interference phenomena and processes can be based on several criteria (duration, intensity, frequency and number of types of harmful interference researched area). Based on the latter criterion stated several areas were defined as the number of types of interference and their expressions are identical. Finally, three categories were defined by the number of interferences, regions that affect different (high, medium and low), hence the chance character product: complex, intermediate and low. Of conclusions resulting set theme, originality and the need to study this class of integrated hydrological hazards. Key words: interferences, physical processes, chemical nature processes, effects

1. The definition for water interference and origin of interfering waters


Water interference represents a phenomenon of inter connection of two water masses with distinct characteristics (physical, chemical, mechanical and dynamic), that join into some point of the propagation environment. Interference
, Babe-Bolyai University, Faculty of Geography 400006 Cluj-Napoca, Romania e-mail:svictor@geografie.ubbcluj.ro; 2 Babe-Bolyai University, Faculty of Geography 400006 Cluj-Napoca, Romania e-mail:rbatinas@geografie.ubbcluj.ro
1

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phenomenon takes place in the marine environment near the coast (beaches, deltas, estuaries, lagoons, mangroves) and in deep waters, but also in the continental environments (surface and underground) (Sorocovschi, 2002, 2010, 2011, Grecu, 2009, Keller, Blodgett, 2008, Blteanu, erban, 2005, Bryant, 2005, Ayala, Cantos, 2002, Dauphine, Rosa, 2002). The localization of interference phenomenon can be absolute (well determined) or relative (more uncertain) and it can be made related with urban and rural areas, with roads or different activities (primary, secondary and tertiary). Also, the localization can be exact, diffuse or random. Its manifestation can be: gradual (the most frequent), linear or in a network (rarely). There are many types for the diffusion of water interferences phenomena: linear, through contamination and irregular. The last type generates numerous disasters, because disorder is caused by many inseparable causes and has multiple effects. The origin of interfering waters can be natural or artificial. The artificial ones are represented by the mining waters that came from ore mines (nonferrous deposits, gold-silver deposits, radioactive deposits), and from mineral fuels exploitation (oil, natural gas, coal) or their processing. The mining waters are able to influence the chemical composition and the toxically gas content of the waters they interfere with, through the substances and gases they contain (H2S, CO2) (Anbumozhi, 2005). The waters from rivers located in areas where building materials and some raw materials are exploited, contain a high level of suspended load, brought by waters running through excavation areas. Water interferences have, as any other natural hazard, many particularities that make very important to know all the risk phenomena research phase (identification, perception, analyze, evaluation, monitoring, forecast, warning and protection). An important particularity of the water interference phenomenon is the complexity in space and time. It is connected especially with the big number of factors that interfere with phenomenons evolution and with the diversity of components nature (physical, economical, financial and socio-cultural). Its complexity is determined not only by the components diversity, but also by their interactions. The analyzing of phenomenons spatial complexity must take into account various aspects: localization and distribution, shape, dimension, diffusion and density. The characteristics of water interference phenomena can be defined through a set of spatial (placing, location, repartition, distance, affected area), temporal (length, frequency, periodicity, cyclical, trend, persistence), quantitative (volume, weight, mass), qualitative (shape, manifestation, density), dynamic (direction, intensity, velocity, rhythm, dispersion, diffusion), energetically (potential, impact and conservation energies, magnitude) attributes.

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2.The nature and location water interference induced processes


The processes that follow the interference phenomenon can have a physical, chemical, mechanical or environmental nature as presented in figure 1 (Sorocovschi, 2006). Each type of process and phenomenon has many attributes that increases the apparition of water interferences (Chiaburu, Dulgheru, 2010).

Figure 1. The classification of water interferences by processes nature

2.1. Physical processes Physical processes refer to the modifications determined by water characteristics, such as temperature, transparency, color and radioactivity. The spilling of high volumes of warm water that come from water plant cooling towers makes the downstream waters to have higher annual temperatures than average values and a very short or no ice formations period (Table 1). Thereby, an example is the Trnava Mic River that downstream the Sngeorgiu de Pdure water plant (in its working time) where has been recorded a water temperature with 2C higher than the one from the upstream section, Sreni (8.3 C). Similar situations appeared on Jil downstream the Turceni water plant. River and lake water temperatures highly depend on the drainage basins climatic zone and on the tributaries water temperature. For example, the Danubes annual average water temperature is smaller in the upper section upstream Passau, because of the input with cool waters from the northern side of the Alps (Riss, Iller, Gnz, Mindel, Lech, Issar and Inn). This phenomenon is more obvious in summer time, when water input is higher. 176

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Table 1. Water temperature and ice formations period on different river sections downstream of the water plants cooling towers (1951-1980). River Trnava Mic Jil Hydrometric station Trnveni Turceni Annual average water temperature 10,7 11,1 Total days with ice formation / year 37 43

A similar phenomenon appears in springtime on Olt River from Fgra Depression, when numerous tributaries come from the northern side of the Fgra Mountains bring a high volume of cool water determined by the melting of snow by the foehn wind (The Snow Eater or The Shepherd). The thermal interference appears even in the underground domain. Such an example is the thermal waters from Cmpia de Vest (Western Plain), that have their source at depths with very high temperatures (40 60 C), that interfere when they reach the surface with low and medium depth underground waters. The thermal marine interferences are very frequent and are very complex phenomena, with areal and local nature. The local nature appears in the case of hydro fronts that separate water masses thermal and salt characteristics. If there is a high salinity vertically homogeneous layer at the water surface, the thermal interference phenomenon cannot be present. This is the case for the salt lakes in Transylvania Depression where is present the heliotherm phenomenon (Sovata, Cojocna, Sic, Ocna Mure, Turda, Ocna Sibiului, Ocna Dej lakes). The physical interferences determine transparency, turbidity and color modifications that appear especially at confluence points, river mouths or mining areas (open-cast or underground mining). Waters turbidity is connected to the supplementary input of alluvial load that comes from slopes surface in times of excessive rainfalls, or through washing of loose materials by meteoric waters. The chromatic modifications can be also induced by the human factor, downstream of many water constructions, especially industrial and urban ones. The transparence and color of river water can be strongly modified by the input of waters that come from mining areas (base metals, precious metals, fossil fuels and building materials). The waters of Arie River, for example, change their color to yellowish after the confluence with Abrud River (Fig. 2). We can find other examples in Romania, Criul Alb River (White Cri) and Criul Negru River (Black Cri). Their names are associated with the waters color determined by the load with suspensions that come from upstream areas with mines precious and non-ferrous minerals (Btina, 2010).

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b a Figure 2. The modification of river water color: a) confluence of Valea esei River with Arie River; b) Valea Selitei River downstream the mud-setting pond Valea Selitei (Btina, 2010

Another type of interference is the suspension load. The high quantity if suspensions can determine the transparency and the color of water. For example, several streams in northwest Transylvanian Depression (Alma and Agrij) and those crossing the Curvature Sub-Carpathians are carrying a huge amount of silt in suspension; thus they get a yellowish color in spring with very little transparency. Instead, the streams that are draining wetlands or swamps are getting a black color. Clogging is a physical process consisting of solid particles deposit in surface and underground waters. Most lakes are heavily clogged as a result of massive deforestation occurred lately in their catchment areas. Degree of contamination depends on the size of the lake basin, the volume of water stored, the position they occupy accumulation in the basin, profile posed the balance between two reservoirs etc. (Gtescu, 2006). Clogging lakes entails a series of negative effects such as their invading vegetation in portions where silt is near the surface, leading to the restriction of water surface, with all known consequences. The most significant negative effect of clogging is the reducing of water quality in the lake. Another example is the Jiu River that has a dark color determined by the suspension load that comes from the coal mining area of Petroani Depression. Waters radioactivity is determined by presence of radon or small quantities of radioactive solvable salts (uranium, thorium, potassium). The radioactivity is smaller in running waters because of the waters dynamic. The origin of high radioactivity of mineral springs (Herculane - Seven Springs, Sngeorz Spa springs 5 and 4, Geoagiu - Healing Spring etc.) was correlated with the presence of granitic rocks, schists penetrated by veins of pegmatite, igneous rocks (rhyolites, dacite), which waters wash them during their journey. On the national level were outlined areas where radioactive waters are frequent. They are located in areas of predominantly acidic igneous rocks: Cerna Mountains, Southern Carpathians 178

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between Jiu and Lotru, Gilu Mountains, Bihor Mountains, Mcin Mountains (Socolescu, et all., 1975). 2.2. Chemical nature processes Many water interferences trigger chemical processes generated by natural and also human influenced factors. Although water interferences have negative effects such as water pollution, we can talk about natural pollution (although its a misnomer), in places where it is produced by natural interferences caused by the mobility of natural process contamination. This kind of interferences appear in various conditions: when waters are crossing a soluble rocks area (sulphates, radioactive rocks etc.), that determines surface or underground waters contamination; when waters are crossing an erosion area, that triggers a pollution with solid particles, especially when they are contaminated with various chemical fertilizers, or when there appear long time suspension fines (shale or clay); when there appears an abundant aquatically vegetation (fixed or floating), especially in low speed water flow rivers and lakes, triggering pollution phenomena that vary in time according to vegetation periods; when river bank vegetation produces pollution through leaves or plant falling (Heise 2003). River water chemistry is induced by river bed substratum characteristics and influenced by hydrological, climatic and morphological particularities of drainage areas. Rivers that cross a karstic area usually have a carbonate character (Arieul Mare River at Scrioara and Arie River at Cmpeni, Grda Seac or Valea Morilor at Huda lui Ppar - from Arie drainage basin, Roia Brook at Pocola, Holod River at Holod and Petera Brook at Vadu Criului Criurilor drainage basin) (Sorocovschi, erban, 2008, Cigher and al, 2010, Marin, 2002). Instead, rivers crossing an opencast or near surface salt area from eastern Transylvania Depression (Trnava Mic River, Srat Brook) and from Moldavian Sub Carpathians (Trotu River) and Curvature SubCarpathians (Rmnic River), have a chlorinated character (Table 2).
Table. 2. Hydrochemical type of river waters influenced by karst and salt from diapir area.
Geology River Hydro-metric station Scrioara Mihoieti Upstream Arie Downstream Sreni Trnveni Rdeana Ttaru Cations (mg/l) Ca Mg Na+K 24,6 6,54 4,43 22,3 5,42 3,1 51,8 5,2 1,15 51,2 5,76 4,88 25,2 10,1 181.0 61,6 20,2 227,3 50 2,4 380 120 3,6 850 Anions (mg/l) SO4 Cl HCO3 17,82 7,02 85,47 10,47 5,02 88,65 5,3 1,0 173,2 11,47 4,5 172,6 11.33 286.0 80 22,46 346,0 229 51,2 550 164,7 467 1120 110

Arie Arie Limestone Grda Seac Huda lui Ppar Trnava Mic Trnava Mic Salt Trotu Rmnicu Srat

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Diapir areas influence the underground or surface water chemistry and quality through direct leaching of salt deposits caused by infiltration waters, and through ground-water supplies, through river bed deepening into salt deposits, through washing of salt efflorescence by torrents flowing into the river (Figure 3). The acidification of natural waters is connected with the drainage of swamp areas or, respectively, suphuric areas that have human influences, that triggers the decrease of natural waters pH (Btina, 2012).

Figure 3. Water interferences determined by salt massives and salt eflorescences washing on Praid Valea Corundului Canyon area (Btina, 2012).

Such an example is represented by the mining areas from Arie Basin (Baia de Arie, Roia Montan and Roia Poieni), Criul Alb Basin (Gura Barza) and those from superior Criul Negru Basin (upstream Beiu). Therefore, in the proximity of the mine waters mouth, the pH is very low, waters having a strong acid composition (Table 3).
Table 3. The values of pH and heavy metals concentration in waters from the proximity of mining areas from Arie Basin (1993-1998), Criul Alb Bazin (1994-1998) and Criul Negru Basin (2001-2007) in mg/l
Sampling point Roia Montan Roia Poieni Baia de Arie Baia de Cri Upstream Beiu Suspensions
171,999 167,211 368.162 48,942 407,001

Fixed residue
778,503 1590,636 628.019 301,675 254,102

Iron
10,138 32,795 1.799 0,199 nd

Manganese
6,108 2,841 nd 0,190 nd

Copper
1,191 10,356 0.224 Nd 0,067

Lead Zinc
0,010 0,027 0.077 nd 0,016 0,928 4,883 0.767 0,021 0,235

Cadmiu
0,011 0,024 nd nd nd

pH
5,597 4,544 7.038 7,762 8,84

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Together with the sulphuric compounds, high concentrations of heavy metals ions (copper, lead, zinc, cadmium) are discharged into the waters, affecting the aquatic biotope, till the complete disappearance of species. The Abrud River sector between Gura Roiei and the confluence with Arie River presents the phenomenon known as ecological devastation (Btina, 2010). Natural processes can temporarily change the values of parameters used for river water interpretation, but most of the negative water interference are induced by human activities which create pollution phenomenas (Smith, Petley, 2009). Pollution sources are very diverse and often cause significant changes in water quality characteristics, negatively influencing their usability for human needs. In Romania there is a great variety of pollution sources, the most relevant being the followingones: - Oil and phenolic compounds from refineries and petroleum products transportation pipes polluting the groundwater aquifer of alluvial cone-Teleajen Prahova; - Fertilizers and agricultural chemicals (nitrogen compounds, phosphates, pesticides, etc.) that are found either in the big manufacturers of such substances (Tg. Mure, Arad, Craiova, Rmnicu-Vlcea, Roznov, etc.) or in agricultural areas, where there is an additional pollution due to incorrect administration of these products; - Materials from industrial processes occur in areas surrounding large former industrial sites (Victoria, Fgra, Codlea, Tohanu Vechi, Bod, Ialnita Craiova, etc.); - Household products and products of livestock activity (organic matter, nitrogen compounds, bacteria, etc.), occur in groundwater in the area of several cities (Piteti, Oradea, Bucharest, Cluj, Suceava, etc.); and in large livestock (Palota, Cefa, Halciu, Bonida, Poiana Mrului, Bbeni, etc.). - Heavy metals are found in groundwater near the mines, the ore preparation plants or waste dumps (Baia Mare, Copa Mic, Media, Trnveni, Piteti, Roia Poieni, etc.). As a result of these interferences, water bodies of national hydrographic network are defined by all five quality classes, as settled by the European Framework Directive 60/2000 on Water. Most watercourses that drain mentioned areas are included in the last class, unsatisfactory. This is best shown in Figure 4. A frequent chemical process is the acidification of continental and marine waters, which occurs on a naturally or artificial way. Natural acidification processes are determined by the presence of allogenic compounds capable of producing certain reactions that can change water or soil pH. For example oligotrophic rivers that drain wetlands (rich in colloidal humic acids) have an acid reaction. 181

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Figure 4. Surface water quality following the EU Water Directive (modified after http://www.mmediu.ro/gospodarirea_apelor/rapoarte_ape.htm)

Thus, the water takes on a yellowish-brown or brown color. In Romania, oligotrophic swamp is known as tinov in Moldova and Transylvania molha in the Apuseni Mountains and mlac in Maramure (Pop, 1960). Areas where there are oligotrophic swamps are widespread in the Eastern Carpathians (Dorna Basin, Lucina-Fundu Moldova, Oa-Maramures, Climani, Harghita, etc.), the Southern Carpathians (Sebe River Basin, Semenic Plateau ) and Western Carpathians (upper basin of Someul Cald, Someul Rece, Muntele Mare-Dobrinu), an area where wetlands "climb" to 1400-1700 m (Chinan, V., 2010). Presence of peat deposits represented by plant debris in various stages of decomposition, gained influence under water (IMCG, 1992) producing an acid reaction. Thus, the Sphagnum peat is acidic (pH of 3.3 to 4.0) Sphagnum peat with Cyperaceous has pH of 4.0 to 5.5, and the Cyperaceous from 5.5 to 6.6 pH units (Chinan, 2010).
REFERENCES 1. 2. Anbumozhi V. and al. (2005), Impact of riparian buffer zones on water quality and associated management considerations, Ecological Engineering 24, pp. 517-523, Ayala-Carcedo, F.J., Olcina Cantos, J. (2002), Riesgos naturales, Editorial Ariel S.A., Barcelona.

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5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21.

Babut, M., Oen, A., Hollert, H., Apitz, S.E., Heise, S., White, S. , (2007), Prioritization at river basin scale, risk assessment at local scale: suggested approaches. In: Heise S. (ed) Sustainable Management of Sediment Resources: Sediment Risk Management and Communication, Elsevier Amsterdam, pp.107151. Blteanu, D., erban Mihaela, (2005), Modificri globale ale mediului. O evaluare interdisciplinar a incertitudinilor, Edit. CNI, Coresi, Bucureti, Btina, R. (2010), Calitatea apelor de suprafa din bazinul Arieului, Edit. Presa Universitar Clujean, Cluj-Napoca. Btina R., Sorocovschi V., (2012) The Hydrographic Network Mobilisation Vector of Pollutants in Roia Montana Area, Roia Montan in Universal History, Cluj University Press, Cluj-Napoca. Bryant, E. (2005),Natural hazards, Second edition, Cambridge University Pres., Chiaburu Mioara,. Dulgheru, M. (2010), Evaluarea riscului indus de interferenele hidrice: aspecte conceptuale i practice n dealurile Bistriei, Riscuri i catastrofe an.IX, vol.8 nr.2, Editor Victor Sorocovschi, Edit., Casa Crii de tiin, Cluj-Napoca. Chiger, M., Mihalache, M., Negru, R. .(2010), Prul subteran din Huda lui Papar. Elemente de hidrologie subteran, Riscuri i catastrofe, vol. 11 nr. 2, Editor Victor Sorocovschi, Edit., Casa Crii de tiin, Cluj-Napoca Chinan, V. (2010), Cercetri taxonomice i ecologice asupra macromicete-lor din mlatinile situate n zona montan a judeului Suceava, Teza de doctorat, Iai. Dauphine, A. (2003), Risques et catatstrophes. Observer, spatialiser, com-prendre, grer, Armand Colin, Paris, Floca, Retean, Diana (2001), Metode multicriteriale de analiz a riscului environmental, Riscuri i Catastrofe, vol.I, Editor Victor Sorocovschi, Edit. Casa Crii de tiin, Cluj-Napoca. Gtescu, P.(2010), Fluviile Terrei, Colecia GEOGRAFICA, Edit. CD PRESS, Bucureti,. Gtescu, P. (2006), Lacurile Terrei, Edit. CD PRESS, Bucureti. Gtescu, P., Brecan, P.(2009), Hidrologie continental i oceanografie, Edit., Transversal, Trgovite. Gtescu, P., Driga, B. (2002), Zona de coast marin cu referiri la sectorul romnesc al Mrii Negre - caracteristici geografice, impacte, management, Riscuri i catastrofe, vol.I, Editor Victor Sorocovschi, Edit. Casa Crii de tiin, Cluj-Napoca, Goiu, Dana, Surdeanu, V.(2007), Noiuni fundamentale n studiul hazardelor naturale, Edit. Presa Universitar Clujean, Cluj-Napoca. Grecu, Florina(2009), Hazarde i riscuri naturale, Ediia a IV-a cu adugiri, Edit. Universitar, Bucureti. Heise S. (2003), Sediment working group on risk management: The current discussion status. J Soils Sediments 3(3):129131. Irimu I.A.(1998), Relieful pe domuri i cute diapire in Depresiunea Transilvaniei, Ed. Presa Universitar Clujean, Cluj-Napoca. Keller, E.A. Blodgett, R.H.(2008), Natural Hazards. Earths Processes as Hazards, Disasters, and Catastrophes, PEARSON, Prentice Hall. Lefvre, C., Schneider, J.-L.(2002), Les risques naturels majeurs, Collection Geosciences, GB Science Publisher, Paris.

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22. Marin, C.(2002), Geochimia apei subterane i de suprafa din zona Grda GheariPoiana Clineasa, Insitutul de speologie Emil Racovi, Bucureti. 23. Mihailov, M.E., Gheorghita-Vitalia S. (2005),The Upwelling Phenomena During Summer on the Romanian Littoral of the Black Sea (Mamaia Bay), Proceedings of the Workshop on Understanding and Modelling the Black Sea Ecosystem in Support of Marine Conventions and Environmental Policies, pp. 1522. 24. Mihailov, M.E., Tomescu-Chivu, Maria-Ionela, Dima, Viorica (2012), Black Sea Water Dynamics On The Romanian Littoral Case Study: The Upwelling Phenomena, in Romanian Reports in Physics, Vol. 64, No. 1, pp. 232245. 25. Mooc, M.(1983), Ritmul mediu de degradre erozional a solului n R. S. Romnia, Buletinul Informativ al A.S.A.S., nr. 13, pp. 47-65, Bucureti. 26. Niedek, Inge, Frater, H. (2005), Naturkatastrophen. Wirbelstrme, Beben, Vulkanausbrch - Entfesselte Gewalten und ihre Folgen, Springer. 27. Octavia Bogdan, Elena Niculescu (1999), Riscurile climatice din Romnia, Academia Romn, Institutul de Geeografie, Bucureti. 28. Panin, N., Bondar, C. (2004): The Danube Delta and the coastal zone Evolution and Environmental changes, workshop GEO-ECOMAR, Uzlina, 29. Pop E. (1960), Mlatinile de turb din Republica Popular Romn, Editura Academiei Republicii Populare Romne, Bucureti. 30. Romanescu Gh. (2002), Medii de sedimentare terestre i acvatice, Delte i estuare, Edit. Bucovina Istoric, Suceava. 31. Romanescu Gh.(2003), Oceanografie, Edit., Azimuth, Iai. 32. Romanescu Gh.(2009), Evaluarea riscurilor hidrologice, Edit. Terra Nostra, Iai,. 33. Romanescu, Gh. et all (2009), Inventarierea i tipologia zonelor umede i apelor adnci din Grupa Central a Carpailor Orientali, Edit. Universitii Al.I.Cuza Iai. 34. Rosa, G. (2000), Rischio idrogeologico e difesa del territori, Dario Flaccovio Editore, Palermo. 35. Smith, K., Petley D.N. (2009), Environmental Hazards. Assessing risk and reducing disaster, fifth edition, Routledge, London and New York. 36. Socolescu, M., Airinei, t., Ciocrdel, R., Popescu, M. (1975), Fizica i structura scoarei terestre din Romnia, Edit. Tehnic, Bucureti. 37. Sorocovschi, V. (2011), The classification of hydrological hazards. A point of view. Riscuri i catastrofe, an. X , nr. 2, Editor Victor Sorocovschi, Edit. Casa Crii de tiin, Cluj-Napoca, 2011. 38. Sorocovschi, V.(2002): Riscuri hidrice, Riscuri i catastrofe, vol.I, Editor Victor Sorocovschi, Edit. Casa Crii de tiin, Cluj-Napoca. 39. Sorocovschi, V.(2005), Prevenirea riscurilor naturale, Riscuri i catastrofe an.IV, nr.2, Editor Victor Sorocovschi, Edit. Casa Crii de tiin, Cluj-Napoca. 40. Sorocovschi, V.(2006), Categoriile de atribute ce definesc evenimentele extreme. Un punct de vedere, Riscuri i catastrofe an.V, nr.3, Editor Victor Sorocovschi, Edit. Casa Crii de tiin, Cluj-Napoca. 41. Sorocovschi, V.(2007), Vulnerabilitatea component a riscului. Concept, variabile de control, tipuri i modele de evaluare, Riscuri i catastrofe an.VI, nr.4, Editor Victor Sorocovschi, Edit., Casa Crii de tiin, Cluj-Napoca.

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42. Sorocovschi, V. (2010), Hidrologia uscatului, Ediia IV, Edit. Casa Crii de tiin, Cluj-Napoca. 43. Sorocovschi, V., erban Gh.(2008), Hidrogeologie, Edit. Casa Crii de tiin, ClujNapoca. 44. Vdineanu, A.(2004), Managementul dezvoltarii - O abordare ecosistemic, Edit. Ars Docendi, Bucuresti . 45. Westrich B. Frstner U.(2007), Sediment Dynamics and Pollutant Mobility in Rivers, An Interdisciplinary Approach, Springer. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. Websites http://www.cee.vt.edu/ewr/environmental/teach/gwprimer/acidmine/acidmine.html http://mine-drainage.usgs.gov/ http://www.earthworksaction.org/amd.cfm http://www.earthworksaction.org/pubs/FS_AMD.pdf http://www.earthworksaction.org/AbandonedMineLegacy.cfm http://www.spaceship-earth.de/REM/COLMER.htm http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acid_mine_drainage http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rio_Tinto_%28river%29 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acidophiles_in_acid_mine_drainage http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saltwater_intrusion http://digital.library.okstate.edu/OAS/oas_pdf/v66/p53_61.pdf http://water.usgs.gov/ogw/gwrp/saltwater/fig3.html http://www.elmhurst.edu/~chm/onlcourse/chm110/outlines/saltintrusion.html http://www.solinst.com/Res/papers/101C4Salt.html http://environmentengineering.blogspot.com/2008/02/water-pollution-by-power-plantsaffects.html 16. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermal_pollution 53. 17. http://www.mmediu.ro. Planul de management al bazinelor hidrografice din Romania, 2007. 18. http://www.capital.ro/detalii /articole/stiri din 4 martie 2012

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Elena Teodoreanu, Clima i omul, prieteni sau dumani?, Editura Paideia, Bucureti, 2011 (377 p. 14 capitole, 49 figuri, 174 titluri bibliografice, 2 anexe) Este un adevr incontestabil faptul c una din caracteristicile importante ale perioadei actuale este tot mai strnsa interdependen dintre componenii sistemului reprezentat de mediul geografic. n acest sens trebuie privit i relaia dintre climat i om, relaie care mbrac numeroase aspecte. Unul dintre acestea se refer la importana condiiilor climatice pentru viaa i sntatea omului, iar cartea doamnei prof. univ. dr. Elena Teodoreanu este un argument foarte solid n favoarea susinerii acestei idei. Dup cum nsi autoarea mrturisete, cartea Clima i omul, prieteni sau dumani? s-a nscut din dorina de a pune la dispoziia celor interesai o serie de informaii, de mare valoare practic, din domeniul bioclimatologiei umane. Cei crora li se adreseaz aceast carte aparin unui spectru larg de activiti: meteorologi, climatologi, medici, specialiti n probleme de mediu i n amenajarea teritoriului, cadre didactice, studeni i masteranzi. De fapt, cartea doamnei Elena Teodoreanu readuce n atenie o serie de probleme pe care domnia sa le-a abordat de-a lungul timpului n alte lucrri de referin ale literaturii de specialitate din Romnia, lucrri care s-au epuizat de mult vreme i care, cu aceast ocazie, au fost completate cu multe aspecte de strict actualitate. Structura crii ne permite s observm, pe de o parte, complexitatea problemelor abordate de ctre autoare, iar pe de alt parte, s constatm puternicul caracter aplicativ al coninutului lucrrii. Astfel, sunt discutate probleme deosebit de interesante, cum sunt cele referitoare la importana climei pentru viaa i activitatea omului, evoluia condiiilor climatice de-a lungul timpului geologic, adaptarea omului la condiiile meteo-climatice privit din perspectiva bioclimatologiei. Apoi, cu aceeai tiin a cuvntului clar i bine ales, sunt analizai factorii care genereaz i influeneaz clima Pmntului. n continuare, sunt prezentate principalele elemente meteorologice, respectiv climatice radiaia solar, temperatura aerului, umezeala, nebulozitatea, precipitaiile atmosferice, stratul de zpad, presiunea atmosferic, vntul, fenomenele electrice , pentru fiecare dintre aceti parametri artndu-se i principalele aspecte cantitative i calitative specifice teritoriului Romniei.

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Lucrarea continu cu analiza influenei condiiilor meteo-climatice asupra sntii omului. Autoarea ne face cunotin cu o serie de probleme care aparin domeniului Geografiei medicale: meteoro- i climatopatologia, climatoterapia cu multiplele ei faete (aeroterapia, helioterapia, hidroterapia, terapia de salin, terapia de mofet), toate aspectele fiind susinute de un bogat material ilustrativ. n acelai context se nscrie i foarte interesantul capitol consacrat psihoclimatologiei i estetoclimatologiei, domenii mai puin cunoscute, mai ales de ctre publicul larg. Remarcabila valoare practic a lucrrii doamnei Elena Teodoreanu este evideniat i de capitolul consacrat bioclimei Romniei, n care se face o prezentare a principalelor aspecte care definesc potenialul bioclimatic al teritoriului rii noastre. n acest context, sunt analizate stresul climatic i confortul termic, dup care urmeaz prezentarea celor trei categorii principale de bioclimate pe care le regsim n Romnia: bioclimatul tonic-stimulent, cel relaxant-sedativ i cel excitant-solicitant. Toate aceste aspecte sunt solid argumentate prin date concrete, prezentate sub form de hri, grafice i tabele foarte sugestive. Spre finalul crii autoarea nu uit s atrag atenia asupra unei probleme de mare actualitate, nu numai pentru lumea tiinific: nclzirea global actual. n acest context, sunt prezentate o serie de consideraii privitoare la consecinele actuale, dar mai ales viitoare ale acestui fenomen, inclusiv asupra strii de sntate a populaiei din diferite zone geografice ale Pmntului. Avnd n vedere faptul c, n lumea tiinific, exist i opinii conform crora Terra s-ar putea confrunta n viitorul apropiat cu o rcire semnificativ a climei, autoarea prezint i principalele consecine pe care le poate avea o astfel de perspectiv. Ultimul capitol al crii, intitulat Omul fa n fa cu clima, este, de fapt, un ndemn la reflecie asupra felului n care omul poate sau nu s fac fa provocrilor pe care le presupune evoluia prezent i viitoare a climei planetei albastre. n finalul lucrrii exist dou anexe. O remarcm n mod cu totul deosebit pe prima dintre acestea, consacrat prezentrii indicilor bioclimatici utilizai n cercetarea bioclimatologic. Apreciem c aceste aspecte sunt deosebit de bine venite, ele fiind de mare ajutor tuturor celor care, ntr-o form sau alta, sunt interesai de problemele de bioclimatologie uman i de valorificarea potenialului climatic al unei regiuni. Apariia lucrrii doamnei prof. univ. dr. Elena Teodoreanu o considerm deosebit de util, att pentru specialitii din domeniul geografiei, medicinii, turismului, ct i pentru publicul larg. Beneficiind de un nivel tiinific deosebit de elevat, avnd i o bibliografie mai mult dect remarcabil, lucrarea este scris ntr-un limbaj accesibil att specialitilor, ct i publicului larg. De aceea, nu ne ndoim c ea va fi apreciat elogios de ctre toi cei care i vor parcurge paginile. Conf. univ. dr. Florin Moldovan Universitatea Babe-Bolyai Cluj-Napoca,

Facultatea de Geografie
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Adina-Eliza Croitoru, V. Sorocovschi, Introducere n Bioclimatologie uman, Edit. Casa Crii de tiin, Cluj-Napoca, 2012 (200 p., 7 capitole, 28 figuri, 38 tabele, 291 titluri bibliografice, 28 adrese internet). Dei Bioclimatologia s-a conturat ca direcie de cercetare relativ recent, preocupri n acest sens dinuie de secole prin studiile practice care urmresc modul cum vremea, prin diversitatea manifestrilor ei, influeneaz starea de sntate a organismului uman. i totui, Biometeorologia apare ca o noutate pentru cercetarea tiinific contemporan i nvmntul superior. Aceasta const n faptul c, n prezent exist preocupri organizate n institutele de cercetare i universiti, n cadrul Societii Internaionale de Bioclimatologie nfiinat n 1956 i chiar n cadrul unor comisii, grupuri de lucru, organizaii mondiale nonguvernamentale, afiliate la ONU i OMS, care urmresc influena diferitelor condiii meteorologice asupra sntii populaiei. n Romnia, germenii acesteia s-au nscut cu mult n urm i au fructificat n Institutul de Balneologie, Fizioterapie i Recuperare Medical nfiinat n 1949. n ultimele dou decenii, preocupri susinute n acest sens a avut Elena Teodoreanu, doctor n geografie i cercettor tiinific principal gr. I, n acest institut, pe care o putem numi creator de coal pentru contribuiile sale n acest domeniu. Numeroase lucrri ale Domniei Sale vorbesc despre impactul variaiei temperaturii aerului, presiunii atmosferice, umezeala aerului i vntul asupra sntii omului, aspecte sintetizate n volumul Bioclimatologie uman aprut n Editura Academiei (2002). Este deosebit de mbucurtor faptul c nvmntul superior din cteva centre universitare (Bucureti, Cluj-Napoca, Oradea, Suceava) au introdus n programa colar, un astfel de curs de Bioclimatologie uman. Un exemplu edificator l reprezint volumul de fa intitulat Introducere n Biometeorologie realizat de coala clujean, avnd ca autori pe Adina-Eliza Croitoru i Victor Sorocovschi, dou distinse cadre universitare, doctori n geografie. Dr. Elena Teodoreanu recunoscut pentru preocuprile sale n acest domeniu, referindu-se la acest volum arta: lucrarea vine s aduc cele mai noi 189

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date din domeniu, informnd cititorul asupra ultimelor teorii i ipoteze cu privire la mecanismele de rspuns ale organismului la variaiile meteo-climatice, autorii tiind s aleag datele necesare pentru nelegerea raportului complex dintre climvreme i organismul uman. Este o lucrare modern, original prin modul de abordare a problemelor care preocup omenirea. Lucrarea prezint o structur logic, bine conceput i realizat, cu un coninut tiinific bogat i interesant. Este o lucrare fundamental care are meritul de a iniia viitoarele cadre ce vor lucra n domeniul biometeorologiei umane. Autorii ei au selectat din literatura de specialitate naional i mondial, problemele de mare interes tiinific i mai puin dezbtute pn n prezent, ceea ce trezete curiozitate i interes deosebit. Astfel, atrag atenia ritmurile cosmice, care le genereaz pe cele biologice demonstrnd influena atrilor din galaxia noastr asupra lumii vii, dar i factorii de mediu n care se desfoar viaa, care la rndul lor, sunt supui aceleiai ritmiciti cosmice. Principalele elemente meteo-climatice tratate sunt: temperatura aerului, umezeal, vntul, nebulozitatea i precipitaiile, precum i cmpul aero-electric deosebit de important pentru sntatea uman. n analiza acestora, autorii atrag atenia asupra influenelor lor pozitive i negative asupra organismului uman, precum i msurile de prevenire a efectelor negative i de asemenea, sistemele de avertizare a populaiei mpotriva unor factori de stres, cum este de exemplu, cldura. O atenie deosebit se acord strilor patologice induse de aspectele vremii asociate principalelor formaiuni barice (cicloni, anticicloni i fronturi atmosferice), mai puin abordate n literatura de specialitate romneasc. Spre deosebire de factorii meteorologici tratai fiecare n parte, n cazul celor asociai trecerii unui ciclon, anticiclon sau fronturilor atmosferice, stresul suportat de organismul uman este mult mai mare i afeciunile induse de acetia, mult mai numeroase, pre care autorii le prezint cu profesionalism. Interesante sunt i estimrile efectuate asupra comportamentului uman n condiiile unor posibile schimbri climatice. Este pentru prima dat n literatura de specialitate din ar n care se atrage atenia asupra acestora. Este vorba de efectele directe datorate unor fenomene meteorologice extreme (inundaii, temperaturi excesive etc.) sau indirecte (cum sunt transmiterea unor boli infecioase din cauza nclzirii climei, ceea ce va duce la creterea cazurilor de morbiditate, afectarea produciei agricole i alterarea rapid a alimentelor, extinderea malnutriiei etc.). Merit s subliniem i aprecierile estimative efectuate asupra dimensiunii psihologice a schimbrilor climatice privit sub raport individual, dar i colectiv. n aceast situaie, populaia se va confrunta cu diverse stri afective, emoionale, 190

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depresive i chiar patologice i legat de acestea, va crete vulnerabilitatea populaiei fa de aceste schimbri climatice. n acest caz este invocat i prognoza biometeorologic sau prognoza meteomedical cum o numete dr. Elena Teodoreanu (2002, p. 63). Ultima parte lucrrii se refer la indicii i indicatorii utilizai n biometeorologia uman, care permit evaluarea condiiilor de stres i de confort pentru desfurarea diferitelor activiti n aer liber, inclusiv n turism. Conchidem, apreciind lucrarea de fa ca pe o frumoas reuit, o lucrare original prin structur i coninut, foarte bine fundamentat i documentat tiinific, cu caracter modern i numeroase aspecte noi care o fac interesant i deosebit de atractiv. Sub forma unui curs, aceasta poate fi audiat cu plcere, iar sub forma unei lucrri tiinifice, aceasta trezete interesul nu numai specialitilor, dar i a celor interesai de impactul condiiilor meteo-climatice prezente i viitoare asupra organismului. Prof.univ.dr. Octavia Bogdan Univ. Cretin Dimitrie Cantemir Facultatea de geografia Turismului

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