INDIA

Real Estate Unitech

Event Update 22 April 2009

Hold Triggers awaited – fairly priced Key Data

Target Price: Rs56 Bloomberg Code UT.IN
 Unitech raises US$325mn through QIP: Unitech has
Reuters Code UNTE.BO
CMP: Rs52* raised Rs16.2bn through QIP at Rs38.5 per share (face
Current Shares O/S (mn) 1,621.0
Upside: 8% value Rs2) resulting in 26% dilution and promoter
holding falling to 53%. Diluted Shares O/S(mn) 1,621.0
*as on 21 April 2009
Mkt Cap (Rs bn/USD bn) 84.5/1.7
 D/E to fall to 1.2x post infusion, but concerns linger:
52 Wk H / L (Rs) 338/22
With part repayment of debt through equity proceeds,
Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 606,60,804
D/E would fall to 1.2x in FY10. However, with additional
debt of Rs25bn maturing in FY11, Unitech is expected Face Value (Rs) 2
face a shortfall of Rs19.5bn in FY11after factoring in 1 USD = Rs50.4
money flow from asset sales. Source: Bloomberg ; * As on 21 April 2009

 Unitech’s proposed launch plans may not materialize:

Unitech needs to tread cautiously as its proposed launch Shareholding Pattern
target of 30mn sq ft in FY10 appears to be too aggressive, Public & Foreign, 6.3 Institutions,
considering that the company has been unable to sell a Others, 12.9 1.9
Non Promoter
similar amount over FY07-09 combined. Ongoing Corp. Hold.,
projects of 27mn sq ft yet to be delivered 11.5

 Declining demand continues to impact office and

retail segments: Visible slowdown in Unitech Corporate
Parks (UCP) and other properties’ pre-leasing and
construction activities combined with huge oversupply
Promoters,
gives poor visibility over FY09-11E. 67.5
 Maintain Hold with target price of Rs56 at 30% Source: BSE; As on 31 December 2008
discount to NAV: After factoring in impact of dilution
and Unitech’s unaudited financial statements as at Dec One Year Indexed Stock Performance
2008, our NAV per share has increased to Rs78 from Rs67. 140
Our discount to NAV has now fallen to 30% from 50%, 120

which factors in the reduced interest burden and lower 100

80
Rupesh Sankhe debt/equity ratio. This justifies our new target price of 60
rupesh.sankhe@centrum.co.in Rs56/sh (Rs54 for real estate and Rs2 for Unitech Wireless) 40
91 22 4215 9636 and we reiterate Hold on the stock. 20
0
Adhidev Chattopadhyay Apr-08 Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09
adhidev@centrum.co.in UNITECH LTD NSE S&P CNX NIFTY INDEX
91 22 4215 9632
Price Performance (%)

1M 6M 1Yr

Unitech 93.9 (27.3) (81.4)

NIFTY 19.9 9.8 (33.4)

Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research
*as on 21 April 2009

Y/E Mar(Rsmn) Rev YoY (%) EBITDA EBITDA (%) Adj PAT YoY % Fully DEPS RoE (%) RoCE (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x)
FY07 33,447 117.5 18,296 54.7 13,058 1,396.5 8.0 115.9 31.6 6.5 9.6
FY08 41,575 24.3 22,038 53.0 16,619 27.3 10.3 59.4 17.9 5.1 8.0
FY09E 34,377 (17.3) 17,570 51.1 10,813 (34.9) 6.7 25.9 9.6 7.7 10.0
FY10E 24,570 (28.5) 10,804 44.0 5,736 (46.9) 2.9 9.8 5.4 18.2 16.3
FY11E 33,804 37.6 10,982 32.5 6,149 7.2 3.1 8.5 5.4 17.0 16.0
Source: Company, Centrum Research estimates

Please refer to important disclosures/disclaimers inside

 Equity infusion reduces funding gap but concerns linger
Unitech has raised Rs16.2bn through a QIP issue by issuing about 421mn shares at Rs38.5 per share
leading to a dilution of 26% in pre-issue share capital with promoter holding falling to 53% from
67%. Unitech has indicated that the proceeds of the issue would be utilized for part-payment of
maturing debts of approximately Rs25bn in FY10 with the balance amount being deployed towards
construction of ongoing projects and new project launches. The equity infusion is slated to bring
down Unitech’s debt/equity ratio to 1.2x in FY10E from 2.1x as of March 2009. However, unaudited
financial statements in Unitech’s QIP document shows its outstanding debt at Rs109bn (including
Unitech Wireless estimated debt of Rs21bn) as of Q3FY09. This factors in repayment of debt of
Rs4bn to Unitech from Unitech Wireless (through first tranche of Telenor inflow of Rs12.5bn) and
Rs10bn in FY10. We estimate Unitech’s debt at Rs75bn as of March 2010. Although the equity
infusion allays funding concerns for FY10, the estimated debt of Rs25bn maturing in FY11 still
needs to be paid off either through asset sales, PE funding or through debt refinancing. Moreover,
the operating environment for Unitech remains weak and its plans to launch 30mn sq ft of new
projects in FY10 across 15 cities may not materialize as the company is yet to deliver on many of its
ongoing projects in Noida and Kolkata.
D/E to fall to 1.2x post equity infusion, FY11 funding concerns remain
Post equity-infusion of Rs16.2bn, the debt/equity ratio on consolidated basis (including Unitech
Wireless) is slated to fall to 1.2x from 2.1x as of March 2009 on an estimated consolidated balance
sheet debt of Rs86bn in FY10E. Although this would allay concerns on funding gap in FY10, Unitech
may face a shortfall of Rs19.5bn after factoring in money flow from asset sales with additional debt
of Rs25bn maturing in FY11.
Exhibit 1: Unitech’s funding position (as of March 2009)
Unitech Funding Position (Rsmn) Q4FY09E FY10E FY11E
Outflow:
Construction Costs 6,318 13,766 22,822
Interest costs 2,000 7,000 6,500
Taxation 200 1,836 1,980
Debt repayment 25,000 25,000 25,000
Total funding requirement…………..(i) 33,518 47,602 56,303
Inflow:
Sales 8,749 24,570 33,804
Telenor inflow 4,000 - -
Asset sales, stake sale in projects 2,300 9,700 3,000
Equity infusion - 16,209 -
Total inflow 15,049 50,479 36,804
Net cash requirement………………..(ii) 18,469 (2,877) 19,498
Of which: refinanced/restructured debt 18,000 - -
Balance funding/refinancing requirement 469 (2,877) 19,498
Source: Centrum Research Estimates

Unitech’s proposed launch plans may not materialize

Unitech intends to launch ~30mn sq ft of projects in FY10 across 15 cities with concentration in the
residential segment. However, with Unitech struggling to complete its ongoing residential projects
spread over 27mn sq ft across Gurgaon, Noida, Greater Noida and Kolkata and gross balance sheet
debt still at high levels, we believe it would need to tread cautiously as its proposed launch target
of 30mn sq ft appears to be too aggressive, factoring in that it has been unable to sell a similar
amount over FY07-09 combined. As outlined above, with FY11 funding concerns still looming large,
Unitech should focus on strengthening its balance sheet further.

2 Unitech
 Exhibit 2: Unitech’s ongoing residential projects (as of March 2009)
Estimated Saleable Expected
Project Name Location Type Area (mn sq ft) Completion Date
Uniworld SPA Gurgaon Group Housing 1.71 2009
Espace Gurgaon Villas and Plots 0.92 2009
The Close Gurgaon Group Housing 3.27 2009
Fresco Gurgaon Group Housing 1.37 2009
Escape Gurgaon Group Housing 0.82 2009
Harmony Gurgaon Group Housing 0.88 2009
Uniworld Resorts Gurgaon Plots 1.45 2009
Uniworld Gardens II Gurgaon Group Housing 1.02 2011
Unitech Heights Noida/Greater Noida Group Housing 0.60 2009
Unitech Horizon Noida/Greater Noida Group Housing 1.93 2009
Unitech Cascades Noida/Greater Noida Group Housing 0.66 2009
Unitech Habitat Noida/Greater Noida Group Housing 1.80 2009
Unitech Verve Noida/Greater Noida Group Housing 0.65 2009
Capella – Uniworld City Noida/Greater Noida Mixed Development 1.20 2009
Unitech Grande (1st Phase).. Noida/Greater Noida Mixed Development 1.09 2010
Garden Kolkata Group Housing 0.77 2009
Horizon Kolkata Group Housing 0.73 2009
Air Kolkata Group Housing 0.50 2010
Down Town Kolkata Group Housing 0.54 2009
Cascades Kolkata Group Housing 1.06 2010
Height Kolkata Group Housing 1.48 2009
Gateway Kolkata Group Housing 2.27 2010-11 ( 4 phases)
Harmony Kolkata Group Housing 0.38 2010
Total 27.10
Source: Company, Centrum Research

Valuations – Maintain Hold with target price of Rs56 at 30% discount to NAV
After factoring in the impact of dilution and Unitech’s unaudited financial statements as at
December 2008, our NAV per share has increased to Rs78 from Rs67, while our discount to NAV has
fallen to 30% from 50% earlier, keeping in mind the reduced interest burden and lower debt/equity
ratio. This underpins our new target price of Rs56 per share (Rs54 for real estate and Rs2 for Unitech
Wireless) and we reiterate Hold on the stock.

Exhibit 3: Unitech: NAV calculation

Total FCFF (Rs mn) 170,179
Add: Capitalized value of lease properties (Rs mn) 72,929
Less: Net Debt as on 31 Mar10 (Rs mn) 73,977
Less: Outstanding Land Payments (Rs mn) 15,000
Add: Hotel sites (Rs mn) 4,396
NAV (Rs mn) 158,528
No.of Shares (mn) 2,042
NAV per share (Rs) 78
Discount to NAV per share (%) 30%
Target Price (Rs) 54
Add: Value of Unitech Wireless (Rs) 2
SOTP Target Price (Rs) 56
CMP (Rs) 52
% upside/(downside) (%) 8%
Source: Centrum Research Estimates

3 Unitech
Financials
Exhibit 12: Income Statement Exhibit 14: Cash flow
Y/E March (Rs mn) FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E FY11E
Y/E March (Rs mn) FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E FY11E
CF from operating
Revenues 33,447 41,575 34,377 24,570 33,804 Profit before tax 17,919 20,678 14,028 7,820 8,371
Growth in revenues (%) 117.5 24.3 (17.3) (28.5) 37.6 Depreciation 73 205 261 273 300
Operating exp 15,151 19,536 16,807 13,766 22,822 Interest expenses/(income) 832 2,048 3,281 2,711 2,311
Other Non oper. (inc./exp. (419) (65) 0 0 0
% of net sales 45.3 47.0 48.9 56.0 67.5
Op. profit bef WC change 18,404 22,866 17,570 10,804 10,982
EBITDA 18,296 22,038 17,570 10,804 10,982 Working capital adjustment (38,113) (29,956) (8,406) (7,057) 211
y-o-y growth (%) 830.3 20.5 (20.3) (38.5) 1.6 Gross cash from opera. (19,708) (7,090) 9,164 3,748 11,193
Direct taxes paid (235) (415) (3,086) (1,955) (2,093)
EBITDA Margin (%) 54.7 53.0 51.1 44.0 32.5
Interest expenses (801) (2,246) (4,061) (3,461) (3,061)
Dep & Amortisation 73 205 261 273 300 Cash from operations (20,745) (9,750) 2,017 (1,668) 6,040
Other Income 983 1,649 780 750 750 Cash flow from invest.
EBIT 19,205 23,482 18,089 11,281 11,432 Capex (3,333) (23,508) (21,957) 2,543 2,296
Investment (2,261) (3,409) 1,602 0 0
Interest expenses 1,287 2,804 4,061 3,461 3,061
Others (2,115) (5,713) (3,117) 0 0
EBT bef extrao items 17,919 20,678 14,028 7,820 8,371 Other Income 455 756 780 750 750
Extraord. Income/(Exp) 0 0 0 0 0 Cash from investment (7,255) (31,874) (22,692) 3,293 3,046
Cash flow from financing
EBT 17,919 20,678 14,028 7,820 8,371
Procds. from sh cap & prem. 4,699 84 0 16,209 0
Provision for tax 4,864 3,986 3,086 1,955 2,093 Borrowings/ (Repayments) 30,017 45,343 16,000 (15,000) (10,000)
Effective tax rate (%) 27.1 19.3 22.0 25.0 25.0 Others (204) 528 913 (129) (129)
Net Profit bef min int. 13,055 16,692 10,942 5,865 6,278 Dividend paid (185) (475) (311) (167) (179)
Cash from financing 34,327 45,480 16,602 913 (10,307)
Minority interest 11 129 129 129 129
Net cash increase/ (dec.) 6,328 3,855 (4,073) 2,537 (1,222)
Net Profit after min int 13,044 16,563 10,813 5,736 6,149 Opening Cash Balance 3,899 10,227 14,083 10,010 12,547
Extra-ordinary inc/ (exp) 14 55 0 0 0 Closing Cash Balance 10,227 14,083 10,010 12,547 11,325
Adjusted Net Profit 13,058 16,619 10,813 5,736 6,149 Source: Company, Centrum Research
y-o-y growth (%) 1,396.5 27.3 (34.9) (46.9) 7.2
Adj.Net Profit Mrg(%) 37.9 38.4 30.8 22.7 17.8

Source: Company, Centrum Research

Exhibit 15: Key Ratios
Y/E March FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E FY11E
Exhibit 13: Balance Sheet Margin Ratios (%)
Y/E March (Rs mn) FY07 FY08 FY09E FY10E FY11E EBITDA Margin 54.7 53.0 51.1 44.0 32.5
PBIT Margin 55.8 54.3 51.5 44.6 33.1
Equity Share Capital 1,623 3,247 3,247 4,089 4,089
PBT Margin 52.0 47.8 39.9 30.9 24.2
Reserves 18,320 32,758 44,301 65,238 71,208 PAT Margin 37.9 38.4 30.8 22.7 17.8
Shareholders' fund 19,944 36,005 47,548 69,326 75,297
Growth Ratio (%)
Minority Interest 13 1,159 1,159 1,159 1,159
Revenue 117.5 24.3 (17.3) (28.5) 37.6
Debt 40,397 85,524 101,524 86,524 76,524 EBITDA 830.3 20.5 (20.3) (38.5) 1.6
Deferred Tax Liability 15,808 19,196 19,196 19,196 19,196 Net Profit 1,396.5 27.3 (34.9) (46.9) 7.2
Total Capital Employed 76,161 141,883 169,426 176,205 172,175
Return Ratios (%)
Total Fixed Assets 8,148 31,442 53,137 50,321 47,724
ROCE 31.6 17.9 9.6 5.4 5.4
Goodwill 1,126 1,126 4,243 4,243 4,243 ROIC 23.4 17.2 10.2 6.2 6.3
Investments 4,548 14,165 12,563 12,563 12,563 ROE 115.9 59.4 25.9 9.8 8.5

Inventories 548 422 471 740 741

Per share Ratios (Rs)
Projects in progress 86,447 135,653 148,338 141,363 148,184 Basic EPS 8.0 10.3 6.7 2.9 3.1
Debtors 1,458 7,460 8,759 11,444 13,892 Fully diluted EPS 8.0 10.3 6.7 2.9 3.1
Cash and bank balances 10,227 14,083 10,010 12,547 11,325 Book value 12.3 22.2 29.3 33.9 36.9
Cash per share 6.3 8.7 6.2 6.1 5.5
Other current assets 172 148 188 202 185
Dividend per share 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1
Loans and Advances 18,225 29,295 32,964 33,658 37,046 Gearing Ratio (x)
Total current assets 117,077 187,062 200,730 199,953 211,373 Debt-equity 2.0 2.4 2.1 1.2 1.0
Interest coverage ratio 14.9 8.4 4.5 3.3 3.7
Current liabilities & prov. 54,738 91,912 101,247 90,876 103,729
Net current assets 62,339 95,150 99,483 109,078 107,644 Valuation (x)
Misc. Expenditure 1 1 1 1 1 P/E (Fully Diluted) 6.5 5.1 7.7 18.2 17.0
Total Assets 76,161 141,883 169,426 176,205 172,175 P/BV 4.2 2.4 1.8 1.5 1.4
EV/EBITDA 9.6 8.0 10.0 16.3 16.0
Source: Company, Centrum Research EV/Sales 5.3 4.2 5.1 7.2 5.2
M-cap/Sales 2.5 2.0 2.5 3.4 2.5
Source: Company, Centrum Research

4 Unitech
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5 Unitech
Sanjeev Patni Head - Institutional Equities sanjeev.patni@centrum.co.in 91-22-4215 9699

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Nifty by -5% to +5%, Reduce: Expected to underperform Nifty by 5 to 15%, Sell: Expected to underperform Nifty by>15%

Centrum Broking Private Limited

Member (NSE, BSE), Depository Participant (CDSL) and SEBI registered Portfolio Manager
REGD. OFFICE Address
Bombay Mutual Bldg.,2nd Floor, Dr. D. N. Road, Fort,
Regn Nos
Mumbai - 400 001
CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN. NO.: BSE: INB 011251130, NSE: INB231251134
DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN. NO.: NSE: INF 231251134 (TRADING & SELF CLEARING MEMBER)
Correspondence Address
CDSL DP ID: 12200. SEBI REGISTRATION NO.: IN-DP-CDSL-20-99
Centrum House, 6th Floor, CST Road, Near Vidya Nagari Marg,
PMS REGISTRATION NO.: INP000000456
Kalina, Santacruz (E), Mumbai 400 098.
Website: www.centrum.co.in
Tel: (022) 4215 9000
Investor Grievance Email ID: investor.grievances@centrum.co.in

6 Unitech