Professional Documents
Culture Documents
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/bond-questions-052013
PERSONAL INVESTORS
OPEN AN ACCOUNT
Home
My Accounts
What We Offer
Insights
TEXT SIZE: A
AA
The Federal Reserve's unprecedented intervention in the U.S. bond market has stimulated more than the economy. Debate is raging over how fixed income investors will fare in the coming years. Kenneth Volpert, head of Vanguard's Taxable Bond Group, and Francis Kinniry, a principal in Vanguard Investment Strategy Group, fielded questions about the bond market.
Will bond investors be hurt when the Fed reverses its stimulative policies?
Ken Volpert: It depends on how quickly interest rates rise. The futures market for 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds is anticipating rates will rise 0.4 percentage point over one year, 0.7 over two years, and 1.1 over three years; in other words, a slow climb. The real yield on the 10-year Treasury is 0.7% now. If rates go up 1.1% over three years, that would bring the real yield to 0.4%, compared with a more normal level of 2.0%. Such a gradual risewhich is the goal of the Fed's unwindingwill depress bond returns but not into negative territory. If rates rise faster than the market is predicting, bond returns could turn negative. Just as financial repression
1 of 3
5/1/2013 6:33 PM
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/bond-questions-052013
has been bad for savers but supportive of economic growth, a return to positive real rates could create a drag on bond returns in the short term but compensate investors with higher yields over longer periods of time. Fran Kinniry: No one can say with certainty what will happen when the Fed slows or ends its substantial monetary stimulus programs. It is overly simplistic to say that if this happens, then that will happen. How markets react to the Fed's policy changes is driven largely by the reason for the changes and the degree of change, yet these factors are unknown. While much of the focus is on the bond market, the slowing or ending of the Fed's intervention could hurt equities and higher-risk investments more than lower-risk bonds. The bottom line is that the details that emerge as to why there is a change in policy will determine the outcomes for various investments.
Are real estate investment trusts, master limited partnerships, high-dividend stocks, and other high-yielding assets a good alternative to low yields in the bond market?
Fran Kinniry: Our research cautions investors against replacing a broad bond allocation with higher-yielding assets. While these may increase the portfolio's yield, they are more highly correlated with equities in market reversals, when investors are most in need of a cushion against volatility. A broad allocation to investment-grade bonds* has offered low correlation with stocks in bear markets, resulting in significant downside protection when stock returns were negative. That downside protection was greater, however, when bonds yielded 7.6%the average from 1976 to 2012. Today the broad bond market is yielding 1.9%, meaning the downside protection is not as strong; however, bonds remain one of the best diversifiers of equity risk. To understand the dynamic nature of asset class correlations and the implications in different market environments, I suggest a look at our research on the topic: Dynamic correlations: The implications for portfolio construction. Are bonds a good alternative to money market funds?
Are international and emerging market bonds a substitute for domestic bonds?
Fran Kinniry: The portion of the global investable market made up by international and emerging market bonds has grown significantly over the years. It increasingly makes sense for investors to consider adding hedged foreign bonds to their diversified portfolios. Many of the factors that drive international bond prices are relatively uncorrelated with the same factors driving U.S. bonds. Our research shows that, provided the currency risk is hedged, an allocation to high-grade international bonds in developed markets can lead to lower average portfolio volatility over time.
With yields at historic lows, it may be tempting to use a bond fund to manage your money. Find out why even a small increase in interest rates could reduce the value of your cash position. Learn more
If investors are concerned about rising interest rates, where do they go for protection?
Fran Kinniry: Investors shouldn't confuse today's low level of rates with the future direction of rates. No doubt rates are low, so returns will be lower, but the future direction of rates is uncertain and not correlated with the current low rate levels. The interesting question is, protection from what? If investors are trying to make a call on the forward returns of stocks versus bonds, they are going to have to get a lot of things right. For example, how will each asset class move relative to the other? And by what degree? There is also the matter of when these moves will begin and when they will end. Vanguard has consistently advocated the value of an all-weather, well-diversified portfolio in lieu of attempts to time the market, which have historically proved futile. Many have been calling for rising rates for a decade, so it's important to remember that reacting to headlines can be harmful to your portfolio.
2 of 3
5/1/2013 6:33 PM
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/bond-questions-052013
Notes: All investments involve some risk. There is no guarantee that any particular asset allocation or mix of funds will meet your investment objectives or provide you with a given level of income. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Bond funds are subject to interest rate risk, which is the chance bond prices overall will decline because of rising interest rates, and credit risk, which is the chance a bond issuer will fail to pay interest and principal in a timely manner or that negative perceptions of the issuer's ability to make such payments will cause the price of that bond to decline. High-yield bonds generally have medium- and lower-range credit quality ratings and are therefore subject to a higher level of credit risk than bonds with higher credit quality ratings. Investments in bonds issued by non-U.S. companies are subject to risks including country/regional risk and currency risk. These risks are especially high in emerging markets.
19952013 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Vanguard Marketing Corp., Distrib. Terms & conditions of use | Security Center services | Feedback
3 of 3
5/1/2013 6:33 PM