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(ACTG)
The patent market has been extremely inefficient, and over time with any new asset class there will be a variety of business formats that rationalize the process that make the markets more efficient. Historically, the only way you can get paid for a patent, and pretty much 99% the way it is today, is you have to resort to the legal system in order to transact. You'd literally have to sue another company or they generally will not talk to you. And if you talk them inappropriately, they can countersue you. They can file a declaratory judgment against you for just offering a license. So the structure of the market place really requires a lot of enforcement. Fortunately, we're far enough down the road, we've done so many deals that we have legal arrangements with a lot of leading companies where both sides preserve their legal right and can enter into arms length of discussions without litigation. And we think we'll be moving more and more in that direction, which is great for our shareholders and great for our IP partners because it lessens the friction cost of all the lawyering, improves our margins. - Paul Ryan, CEO of Acacia
Management
Acacia employs 55 people in Newport, California. This is a human capital business as there is only a select few in the market that know how to effectively manage IP Organization is managed through an intersection of legal/IP and licensing experts (who underwrite the business development efforts), engineering & tech experts, and vertical specialists with extensive backgrounds in those fields CEO Paul Ryan is architect of IP strategy and operations. He has a Ph.D. and a legal/banking/VC background with top firms. Cornell B.S. and NYU MBA. Team includes dozens of VPs of Engineering and science/technology experts that typically have 15 20 years experience coming form firms like Intel, Nortel, Texas Instruments, Marvell, Sony, Schlumberger and dozens more All have good salaries, but are highly incentivized to close deals and sign license agreements through bonus structures. (management owns ~3% of company)
Flexibility in deal-making
Acacia generally follows three models: Partner Model 50/50 revenue share with patent owners, license to corporate users. Typical partners include corporations, research labs / universities, individuals Purchase Model 100% ownership. Typically bought from distressed situations and failed startups backed by VCs Hybrid Model Up front cash to partners and revenue share *Legal fees paid on contingent basis
Flexibility in deal-making
Partnership Model Purchase Model
Hybrid model
Consists of Acacia putting up capital to the original IP owner and recouping investment from first dollars out of licensing revenues Higher back-end participation This model is expected to be norm going forward for high-quality patents
Remains fairly capital light
Dozens of verticals
Advertising Internet / Ecommerce Communications Computers/Peripherals Consumer Electronics Database Digital Media Energy /Lighting Mechanical Medical Security Semiconductor Software Wireless
IP intake to replace maturing portfolios is also strong with dozens of portfolios added every year
Licensees
Pretty much every Fortune 100 company: AMD Boston Scientific Dell Exxon General Electric Hewlett Packard Hitachi IBM Intel LG Electronics Microsoft Nokia Samsung Sanyo Siemens And on and on..
and Growth
ACTG has generated $936 million of high margin revenue since inception TTM revenue of $250 MM (CAGR of 39% over last six years) is still in early stages of monetization of its major portfolios that remain largely unlicensed Despite no official guidance, due to difficulty in timing of closing of deals and settlements, management expects its yearly growth to continue at its two-year ~35% run-rate
Valuation
An investment in Acacia is an investment in the firms intellectual capital and intangible assets The IP intangible assets ACTG uses to generate cashflow can have wide ranges of potential value (from conservative to aggressive) Trying to value each portfolio is very difficult; however, understanding its key portfolios is helpful while also looking at trends such as monetization rates, revenue per portfolio, and deal size / structure Each portfolio, on average, should have somewhat predictable return characteristics
Valuation
Method: Monetized IP + Un-monetized IP + New IP Slightly >50% of portfolios are generating revenues, but only ~40% of ultimate value has been extracted (it takes 5 7 years to fully license a typical portfolio) Historical monetization rates / timing to gross up can give a ballpark idea of the NPV of a new portfolio Finally, a big driver we also assign value to, is unsecured new IP that will be acquired through purchase / partner / hybrid models and generate attractive returns on capital
Assumptions
Current portfolios: ~$936 MM of total revenues ITD;
Implied revenue per portfolio ~$5 MM; ~40% of value extracted; grossed up portfolio is $13 MM Results in a gross rev potential of approximately $2,000 MM
Unmonetized portfolios:
106 of which higher proportion is fully owned; assign $22 MM per portfolio (larger deal sizes in recent years will mature) which leads to a gross portfolio potential of approximately $2,300 MM
Future IP portfolios:
Using historical data assume 100 portfolios with superior economics considering larger size, scope and hybrid model being used (with higher implied investment) $30 MM is conservative which leads to a gross estimate of $3,000 MM
SOTP Assumptions
*all figures in MM except per share figures Gross Port Rev 65% GM % un-harvested Gross Profit Total Gross Profit Cum 5 yr. OpEx Capital Investment Cum Profits (35% tax rate) Discounted Enterprise Value per share (see next slide) Cash on balance sheet Equity Value per share Current $2000 $1300 60% $780 $4225 $550 $400 $2128 $32.00 $327 $38.64 Un-monetized $2300 $1495 100% $1495 New IP $3000 $1950 100% $1950
They dont actually produce anything themselves. Theyre just trying to essentially leverage and hijack someone elses innovation to see if they can extort some money out of them.
- President Barack Obama on so-called patent trolls
Innovation violates tradition attacks it in public and steals from it in private. Mason Cooley
Summary
Contrarian idea with good risk/reward: investment isnt for everyone headlines will create volatility. Risk of persecution from government cant be dismissed Capital light; high ROIC business w plenty of runway to reinvest in profitable growth (optionality upside) Cheap with very strong growth potential Strong balance sheet with >25% of mkt cap in cash Operating leverage in an asset class and market that is growing No direct competition; structural advantages over fragmented one / two man shops Eat their own cooking: management wins when shareholders win