BMA UNIVERSE

Monday, July 01, 2013

RECOMMENDATIONS
Company Name

Ticker

TP
Dec/Jun

Price

MULTIPLES
Upside /
Downside

P/E

Total Rating
Return

PROFITABILITY & YEILD

PBV

Earnings (PKR/sh)

Earnings Growth

2012

2013F

2014F

2012

2013F

2014F

2012

2013F

2014F

2012

Dividend (PKR/sh)

2013F

2014F

Div Yield

2012

2013F

2014F

2012

2013F

2014F

Banks
MCB Bank

MCB

225

243

-7%

-1%

NEUTRAL

11.7x

11.9x

10.0x

2.4x

2.3x

2.0x

20.7

20.5

24.4

8%

-1%

19%

11.8

15.3

17.8

5%

6%

7%

National Bank

NBP

45

41

9%

26%

BUY

5.4x

6.0x

5.6x

0.6x

0.5x

0.5x

7.6

6.8

7.4

-8%

-10%

8%

6.1

7.0

8.0

15%

17%

19%

Habib Bank

HBL

113

119

-5%

5%

NEUTRAL

7.4x

8.0x

6.9x

1.3x

1.3x

1.1x

16.2

15.0

17.4

4%

-7%

16%

6.8

12.0

14.0

6%

10%

12%

United Bank

UBL

100

108

-7%

0%

NEUTRAL

7.3x

7.6x

6.1x

1.4x

1.5x

1.3x

14.7

14.2

17.7

16%

-3%

24%

8.5

8.0

10.5

8%

7%

10%

Bank Alfalah

BAFL

19

18

4%

18%

BUY

5.4x

5.2x

4.3x

0.8x

0.9x

0.8x

3.4

3.5

4.2

30%

3%

20%

2.0

2.5

2.7

11%

14%

15%

Bank Al Habib

BAHL

34

27

26%

36%

BUY

5.0x

6.0x

4.9x

1.1x

1.2x

1.1x

5.4

4.5

5.5

20%

-17%

22%

3.0

2.5

3.0

11%

9%

11%
6%

Oil and Gas

Oil & Gas Dev Co

OGDC

280

229

22%

29%

BUY

10.2x

9.3x

6.9x

3.7x

2.9x

2.3x

22.5

24.7

33.4

53%

10%

35%

7.3

9.0

14.0

3%

4%

Pakistan Petroleum

PPL

269

212

27%

34%

BUY

8.5x

7.7x

6.3x

2.8x

2.2x

1.9x

24.9

27.5

33.5

30%

10%

22%

9.2

12.0

14.0

4%

6%

7%

Pakistan Oil Fields

POL

597

497

20%

32%

BUY

9.9x

9.8x

6.9x

3.3x

3.4x

3.1x

50.1

50.5

72.2

10%

1%

43%

52.5

50.0

60.0

11%

10%

12%
4%

Pakistan State Oil

PSO

309

320

-4%

0%

NEUTRAL

8.7x

6.2x

5.6x

1.6x

1.2x

1.0x

36.7

51.7

56.8

-39%

41%

10%

3.8

7.0

12.0

1%

2%

Attock Petroleum

APL

523

561

-7%

1%

NEUTRAL

9.4x

8.6x

8.7x

3.1x

2.5x

2.2x

59.6

65.6

64.2

-3%

10%

-2%

50.0

40.0

45.0

9%

7%

8%

National Refinery

NRL

230

241

-4%

8%

ADD

7.3x

6.8x

6.4x

0.8x

0.6x

0.6x

32.7

35.4

37.9

-60%

8%

7%

15.0

25.0

30.0

6%

10%

12%

Attock Refinery

ATRL

215

173

25%

28%

BUY

5.4x

4.8x

6.4x

0.6x

0.8x

0.7x

32.1

35.9

26.9

25%

12%

-25%

Shell Pakistan

SHEL

160

143

12%

20%

BUY

-5.9x

8.4x

6.4x

2.0x

1.0x

0.9x

-24.3

17.1

22.4

-330%

-170%

31%

Hub Power

HUBC

58

62

-6%

6%

ADD

8.7x

7.1x

6.9x

2.3x

2.2x

2.2x

7.1

8.7

9.0

51%

22%

4%

Kot Addu Power

KAPCO

59

62

-5%

8%

ADD

9.0x

7.1x

6.8x

2.3x

2.2x

2.2x

6.9

8.7

9.1

-7%

26%

5%

Nishat Chun. Power

NCPL

31

33

-6%

7%

ADD

6.0x

4.7x

4.5x

2.0x

1.7x

1.5x

5.5

7.1

7.3

26%

29%

Nishat Power Ltd.

NPL

28

33

-16%

-7%

REDUCE

5.8x

4.4x

4.4x

1.7x

1.4x

1.1x

5.8

7.5

7.7

8%

34

22

53%

66%

BUY

31.2x

5.8x

8.9x

1.1x

1.1x

1.1x

0.7

3.8

2.5

-42%

7.5

7.0

6.5

4%

4%

4%

10.0

12.0

0%

7%

8%

6.0

7.0

7.5

10%

11%

12%

6.9

7.5

8.0

11%

12%

13%

3%

3.5

4.5

4.5

11%

14%

14%

31%

2%

2.0

3.0

3.0

6%

9%

9%

435%

-34%

2.9

1.5

0%

13%

7%

15.0

14.5

14%

14%

13%

0%

0%

0%

Electricity

Fixed Line Telecommunication

Pakistan Telecom

PTC

Chemicals
Fauji Fertilizer

FFC

125

107

16%

30%

BUY

6.6x

7.0x

7.2x

5.2x

6.1x

6.2x

16.4

15.4

15.0

-7%

-6%

-3%

Engro Corporation

ENGRO

177

122

45%

45%

BUY

46.7x

9.2x

5.6x

1.4x

1.2x

1.0x

2.6

13.3

21.8

-83%

410%

64%

15.5
-

Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim

FFBL

46

38

23%

37%

BUY

8.1x

6.5x

6.9x

2.8x

3.1x

2.8x

4.6

5.8

5.4

-60%

25%

-6%

4.5

5.5

5.0

12%

15%

13%

Fatima Fertilizer Ltd.

FATIMA

37

25

49%

59%

BUY

8.5x

6.1x

5.5x

1.8x

1.5x

1.3x

2.9

4.1

4.5

48%

40%

12%

2.0

2.5

3.0

8%

10%

12%

ICI Pakistan

ICI

157

166

-5%

-2%

NEUTRAL

17.2x

13.5x

9.9x

1.5x

0.9x

0.9x

9.7

12.3

16.9

-49%

28%

37%

5.5

6.5

7.5

3%

4%

5%

Lotte PTA

LOTCHEM

11

38%

42%

BUY

NM

12.7x

6.9x

1.0x

0.9x

0.8x

-0.1

0.6

1.1

-104%

NM

83%

0.3

0.5

0%

4%

6%

Engro Polymer

EPCL

15

12

24%

24%

BUY

162.2x

8.1x

6.6x

1.3x

1.2x

1.0x

0.1

1.5

1.8

-107%

1908%

22%

0.5

0%

0%

4%
5%

Construction and Materials

Lucky Cement

LUCK

232

210

11%

15%

ADD

10.0x

6.9x

6.4x

2.0x

1.8x

1.6x

21.0

30.6

32.9

71%

46%

7%

6.0

9.0

10.0

3%

4%

DG Khan Cement

DGKC

107

84

28%

34%

BUY

8.9x

6.1x

5.3x

1.1x

0.9x

0.8x

9.4

13.7

15.9

2305%

46%

16%

1.5

2.5

5.0

2%

3%

6%

Attock Cement

ACPL

143

132

8%

17%

BUY

9.1x

5.5x

5.4x

2.0x

1.7x

1.5x

14.4

23.8

24.6

110%

65%

3%

7.4

12.0

12.0

6%

9%

9%

Indus Motors

INDU

339

311

9%

15%

ADD

5.7x

8.8x

6.2x

1.4x

1.3x

1.2x

54.7

35.3

50.5

57%

-36%

43%

32.0

20.0

32.0

10%

6%

10%

Pak Suzuki Motor

PSMC

185

149

24%

28%

BUY

12.5x

7.4x

6.5x

0.8x

0.7x

0.7x

11.9

20.1

22.8

23%

69%

13%

2.5

5.0

5.5

2%

3%

4%

Nishat Mills

NML

118

94

25%

31%

BUY

9.4x

6.0x

5.4x

0.9x

0.8x

0.7x

10.0

15.6

17.5

-27%

56%

12%

3.5

5.5

6.5

4%

6%

7%

Nishat Chunian

NCL

74

60

24%

32%

BUY

5.0x

4.3x

3.9x

1.8x

1.4x

1.2x

12.0

14.0

15.5

50%

17%

10%

4.0

5.0

6.0

7%

8%

10%

Adamjee Insurance

AICL

88

76

16%

22%

BUY

15.1x

7.1x

5.2x

0.8x

0.8x

0.7x

5.0

10.8

14.7

372%

114%

36%

1.0

5.0

5.0

1%

7%

7%

Pak Reinsurance Ltd.

PAKRI

24

24

3%

16%

ADD

6.4x

6.0x

5.8x

1.1x

1.0x

1.0x

3.7

4.0

4.1

31%

8%

3%

2.5

3.0

3.0

11%

13%

13%

EFOODS

138

141

-2%

-2%

NEUTRAL

41.4x

25.4x

18.4x

10.9x

7.6x

5.4x

3.4

5.5

7.7

191%

63%

38%

1.2

1%

0%

0%

9.5x

8.1x

6.8x

2.0x

1.8x

1.6x

10%

17%

19%

5%

7%

8%

Automobile and Parts

Personal Goods

Non Life Insurance

Food Producers
Engro Foods

BMA UNIVERSE
Monday, July 01, 2013
RECOMMENDATIONS
Company Name

Ticker

TP
Dec/Jun

Price

FINANCIAL RATIOS
Upside /
Downside

ROE

Total Rating
Return

TRADING SUMMARY

ROA

BV (PKR/sh)

2012

2013F

2014F

2012

2013F

2014F

2012

ADT (mn)

2013F

2014F

Sh.

USD

Shares
(mn sh)

Free Float
(mn sh)

(%)

Market Cap
PKR mn

USD mn

Banks
MCB Bank

MCB

225

243

-7%

-1%

NEUTRAL

21%

20%

20%

3%

2%

2%

100.6

103.8

119.7

0.5

1.2

1,012

405

40%

245,465

National Bank

NBP

45

41

9%

26%

BUY

11%

9%

9%

1%

1%

1%

71.1

75.0

83.8

3.1

1.5

2,128

505

24%

87,483

2,489
887

Habib Bank

HBL

113

119

-5%

5%

NEUTRAL

18%

16%

16%

1%

2%

2%

91.9

95.3

106.7

0.2

0.2

1,334

133

10%

159,007

1,613

United Bank

UBL

100

108

-7%

0%

NEUTRAL

20%

19%

21%

2%

2%

2%

74.5

73.6

82.2

0.9

0.8

1,224

306

25%

131,697

1,336

Bank Alfalah

BAFL

19

18

4%

18%

BUY

15%

17%

19%

1%

1%

1%

22.4

20.0

21.7

2.8

0.5

1,349

675

50%

24,582

249

Bank Al Habib

BAHL

34

27

26%

36%

BUY

23%

20%

22%

1%

1%

1%

23.7

23.0

25.5

0.7

0.2

1,010

606

60%

27,473

279

Oil and Gas

Oil & Gas Dev Co

OGDC

280

229

22%

29%

BUY

36%

31%

33%

29%

25%

28%

62.4

80.0

99.8

0.7

1.3

4,301

632

15%

983,838

9,978

Pakistan Petroleum

PPL

269

212

27%

34%

BUY

32%

29%

30%

24%

24%

24%

76.9

94.5

111.1

1.1

2.3

1,643

342

21%

347,647

3,526

Pakistan Oil Fields

POL

597

497

20%

32%

BUY

34%

35%

45%

23%

20%

25%

149.1

146.3

159.4

0.4

1.7

237

108

46%

117,653

1,193

Pakistan State Oil

PSO

309

320

-4%

0%

NEUTRAL

18%

19%

17%

3%

5%

5%

202.3

277.7

332.8

1.3

3.4

247

114

46%

79,131

803

Attock Petroleum

APL

523

561

-7%

1%

NEUTRAL

33%

30%

25%

13%

15%

13%

179.2

221.3

256.8

0.04

0.2

69

14

20%

38,785

393

National Refinery

NRL

230

241

-4%

8%

ADD

10%

9%

9%

5%

5%

5%

315.4

392.7

434.0

0.1

0.2

80

25

32%

19,239

195

Attock Refinery

ATRL

215

173

25%

28%

BUY

12%

17%

12%

3%

4%

3%

277.2

212.2

233.1

1.0

1.8

85

30

35%

14,717

149

Shell Pakistan

SHEL

160

143

12%

20%

BUY

-34%

11%

14%

-5%

3%

4%

72.1

148.5

162.2

0.2

0.2

86

17

20%

12,257

124

Hub Power

HUBC

58

62

-6%

6%

ADD

27%

31%

31%

4%

6%

6%

26.6

27.6

28.6

1.8

0.9

1,157

810

70%

71,338

724

Kot Addu Power

KAPCO

59

62

-5%

8%

ADD

26%

31%

33%

6%

16%

21%

26.9

27.9

27.9

0.4

0.2

880

176

20%

54,470

552

Nishat Chun. Power

NCPL

31

33

-6%

7%

ADD

34%

37%

34%

7%

9%

9%

16.3

18.9

21.7

1.0

0.2

367

149

41%

12,148

123

Nishat Power Ltd.

NPL

28

33

-16%

-7%

REDUCE

28%

30%

26%

7%

10%

10%

20.3

24.8

29.5

0.5

0.1

354

143

40%

11,858

120

34

22

53%

66%

BUY

3%

20%

13%

2%

13%

9%

20.5

19.5

19.6

9.8

2.0

5,100

586

11%

113,169

1,148

Electricity

Fixed Line Telecommunication

Pakistan Telecom

PTC

Chemicals
Fauji Fertilizer

FFC

125

107

16%

30%

BUY

80%

88%

86%

34%

38%

38%

20.5

17.5

17.5

1.7

2.1

1,272

700

55%

136,677

1,386

Engro Corporation

ENGRO

177

122

45%

45%

BUY

3%

14%

18%

1%

4%

7%

84.6

98.2

122.3

5.3

6.4

511.27

256

50%

62,308

632

Fauji Fert. Bin Qasim

FFBL

46

38

23%

37%

BUY

34%

47%

41%

11%

14%

13%

13.5

12.3

13.2

1.4

0.6

934

327

35%

35,066

356

Fatima Fertilizer Ltd.

FATIMA

37

25

49%

59%

BUY

21%

24%

24%

8%

12%

14%

13.8

16.7

19.1

1.9

0.5

2,100

315

15%

52,143

529

ICI Pakistan

ICI

157

166

-5%

-2%

NEUTRAL

9%

7%

9%

4%

4%

6%

110.0

184.1

194.5

0.1

0.2

92

14

15%

15,371

156

Lotte PTA

LOTCHEM

11

38%

42%

BUY

-2%

7%

11%

-1%

4%

7%

8.0

8.8

9.6

5.0

0.4

1,514

379

25%

11,538

117

Engro Polymer

EPCL

15

12

24%

24%

BUY

1%

14%

15%

0%

4%

5%

9.3

10.6

12.1

1.5

0.2

663

113

17%

8,068

82
688

Construction and Materials

Lucky Cement

LUCK

232

210

11%

15%

ADD

20%

26%

25%

17%

21%

21%

102.9

117.6

130.0

1.5

2.2

323

129

40%

67,819

DG Khan Cement

DGKC

107

84

28%

34%

BUY

12%

15%

15%

8%

11%

11%

78.4

92.1

108.0

6.2

3.7

438

241

55%

36,666

372

Attock Cement

ACPL

143

132

8%

17%

BUY

22%

30%

28%

16%

24%

22%

66.6

78.6

88.7

0.1

0.1

100

20

20%

13,144

133

Indus Motors

INDU

339

311

9%

15%

ADD

25%

15%

20%

16%

8%

9%

216.5

231.7

250.2

0.0

0.1

79

20

25%

24,445

248

Pak Suzuki Motor

PSMC

185

149

24%

28%

BUY

6%

10%

10%

5%

7%

8%

192.0

207.1

228.4

0.1

0.1

82

22

26%

12,240

124

Nishat Mills

NML

118

94

25%

31%

BUY

9%

13%

13%

6%

9%

9%

107.4

119.9

131.9

3.0

2.3

352

176

50%

33,124

336

Nishat Chunian

NCL

74

60

24%

32%

BUY

36%

33%

30%

12%

14%

15%

33.4

43.1

51.3

2.0

0.8

182

82

45%

10,874

110

Adamjee Insurance

AICL

88

76

16%

22%

BUY

5%

11%

13%

3%

5%

7%

93.3

100.6

110.3

0.9

0.7

124

87

70%

9,411

95

Pak Reinsurance Ltd.

PAKRI

24

24

3%

16%

ADD

17%

17%

17%

8%

8%

8%

22.1

23.0

24.1

0.5

0.1

300

141

47%

7,089

72

EFOODS

138

141

-2%

-2%

NEUTRAL

26%

30%

29%

27%

30%

29%

12.9

18.4

26.1

3.3

3.5

764

115

15%

107,533

1,091

22%

23%

23%

4%

5%

5%

8,910

27%

3,195,472

32,408

Automobile and Parts

Personal Goods

Non Life Insurance

Food Producers
Engro Foods

32,494