中国房地产市场

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france.houdard@exolus.com
M (86) 139.1683.5512 (China)
W (86 21) 5100.1833 x 1100 (Shanghai)
W (1) 305.677.3923 (United States)
2010 4
--
11%
Chinas Real Estate Sector: Looming Bubble or Long-Term Boom? | Exolus International Advisory
DESTATIS
*2008
**2009 /
71% 59%
35% 44%
11% 16%
5 2009
4% 2008 8%
11%
:
GDP 10 9.9%
80 7 2002 2009
7 3
USD
USD
WTO
GATT
1999
2009 11.4% 4
1
30 10 10%
8500 2010
6 2015 6.85 15
8.22

14
14.5
13
12
10
2007
20 3 20
2+2+1 2 +2 +1
1992
4.5 2010 2.5
1992 2 3
5

2/3
10
BofA Merrill Lynch

- 45% 136%
125% 2009 17%,
2008 20%
Merril Lynch
18%2009 56%
40 50
6 2

/%
10 11.4%
10 9.7%
10
0%
9
2009 34%
8
13
20%
50
600 160
50 7 3 1
1/2
2%
2008
10
11
1%
98%
19x
0.7%
101%
20x
1.3%
68%
13x
0.5%
94%
18x
0.6%
84%
25x
0.3%
88%
17x
0.4%
73%
14x
0.2%
68%
13x
0.1%
67%
13x
3.7%
46% 9
0.9%
63%
12x
0.4%
62%
12x
0.3%
62%
12x
0.4%
66%
9x
0.3%
57%
13x
0.6%
57%
11x
0.3%
54%
11x
0.2%
52%
13x
0.5%
50%
10x
0.3%
48%
9x
46% 9 )
0.4%
43%
11x
0.4%
43%
8x
0.3%
41%
9x
0.7%
41%
8x
0.6%
39%
8x
0.2%
31%
6x
GDP() 11%
1949
2010 4 15
1.
2009 75000 2010
185000 2.5
2010 77%
90
2010 13%24000
300 2009
2009 4%
2.

90
20%90 30%

50%
1.1
2010 4 17
2010 4
2010 4
30% 90
20% 30%
20% 90
70%
70%
30% 40%
50%
70%
15% - 20%
1.1
30% 40%
70%
15% - 20%
3.
2010 3 7
2815 11300
4.

1.2% 70%-90%
12%

SAT
5.

20%
5
4.1
2007 9
2007
9 2008
2007 9
5620
2008 4230
25% 43%
2008 55900 2009

85300 53% 2010
52700
2010 1 2010 2
7200 7800 2010 7 2010
8 6500 6900 11%
2009 2010
50% 60%
2009
2009 2010
50% 60% 2008
30% 70%
2009 10%
20%
2009-2010
2009
2010
2009-2010
2009
2010
4.2
/2010
2 12 2010 6 7.3
Residential Digestion Cycle
(Average Months)
20102
Feb '10
20102
June '10
24
22
20
18
No. of Months
16
14
2010
1 /2
12
Jan/Feb
'10 National
avg =
12 months
12
10
6June
7.3
avg = 7.3
months
8
6
4
2
0
Beijing
Shanghai
Chongqing
Shenzhen
Hangzhou
Chengdu
Source: CREIS
4.3
2009
2009
2010 2010
2 40% 3 60%
2010 8 56%
8 12
2010 2010
10
4.4
1
20% 30% 50%
18%
56%
2008
20% 2009 17%
- 2009
11
30% 2005 8%2009 51%2005

77%2009 19% 2005 14% 2009
2007 2007 20%
90 20%
90 10%
12
13 20%
50 600
160 100 50 73100
600
600
600 56 5%
2010 4
13
2009 7
37%
.
14
15
16
17

中国房地产市场

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中国房地产市场

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BofA Merrill Lynch

2008 55900 2009

Residential Digestion Cycle

20% 30% 50%

30% 2005 8%2009 51%2005

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