Global Global

Strategy Challenges
Executable
Solutions

2020:

france.houdard@exolus.com
February 2011
Copyright 2010 Exolus. All rights reserved.

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- :
- :
- :
- (2020): /

/
: /
1. /:

2. /:

:
3. /:
4. :
5. :

- :
- : ---

Copyright 2010 Exolus.

Copyright 2010 Exolus. .


67%

1390%

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

:
: 7 - 7
5.0

4.5

4.0
3.5

3.0

USD

2.5

WTO

2.0

1.5

GATT

1.0

2
2

0.5

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1994

1993

1992

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1986

1985

1984

1983

1982

1981

1980

0.0

IMF

:
:

4(2010) - 5(2015)

900
822
800

756

99

> US$107,800

90

US$53,900 - 107,800

684

700
607
600

531

500

53

170
355

400
300

461

525

US$21,501 53,900

73
35

US$13,500 21,500

239
255

200

157
106

100
0

2005

2010F

2015F

2020F

< US$13,500

2025F

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

2007MGI2008

:
: 6(2010) - 7(2015)

1,600
145
14

1,400

13

12

624

1,200

()

10

705

1,000

782
800
600

833
822

822

()

684
400
200

531
381
245
23%

31%

40%

49%

57%

1985

1995

2005

2015

2025

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

2007

 (2020): /
+

/6

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

2020

2020 GDP*

-27

$29.6

$28.8

$13.4

$6.8

$30.0

2020 GDP*

-27

$14.1
Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

6,4 trillions

de
$

$9.1

3,6 trillions

de $
Japan
$4.1

$3.8

$14.2
: EIU; IMF; CIA World Factbook

Copyright 2010 Exolus. .

10

:
,

IT

HR

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

11

1. :
10 20

( )

$/kWh; USD/m3; USD/m3

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

Public Utilities

12

1. :

(10)

270

U.S.

180
100

Hong Kong

Japan

South Korea

85

Germany
Netherlands

55
Wal-Mart

26

Singapore
Taiwan

25

22

Dell

Russia

50

100

150

200

250

18

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

13

1. :
: 65%

(1)

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

: Exolus Research

14

1. :
: + /
/

(1)

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

15

2. :

()

()

> 40,000

30,000 - 40,000
25,000 - 30,000
20,000 -25,000

17,500 - 20,000
0 - 17,500

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

16

2. : /
&

VW: Audi, Jetta, Bora, Golf

BMW: 3 Series and 5 Series

Mazda: M6

GM: GL8

Toyota: Land Cruiser

GM:Chevrolet (Epica, Sail, Aveo, Lova)

GM: Wuling

Hyundai: Sonata, Elantra

Daimler-Chrysler: MercedesBenz, Cherokee, Jeep

Kia: Pride, Accent, Optima

Fiat: Iveco

Mitsubishi: Pajero, Outlander

Ford

Toyota: Vios, Corolla, Crown

VW: Santana, Passat, Polo, Gol, Touran

Daihatsu: Charade

Nissan: Paladin, pickup

Nissan: Teana

Ford: Fiesta, Mondeo

Mitsubishi: Pajero

Peugeot-Citroen: Fukang, Elysee,

Xsara, Peugeot, Picasso
Honda: CR-V

Honda: Accord, Fit, Odyssey

Nissan: Bluebird, Sunny

Toyota: Camry

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

Geely: Haoqing, Meirie, Uliou, Maple

Isuzu: F-Series, N-Series

Mazda: Premacy, Familia

Chery: Fulwin,Cowin,Easter,QQ,A5,V5

Toyota: Terios, Prado

GM: Spark, Wuling

GM: Buick Regal, Royaum,Lacrosse,

Excelle, Cadillac

Suzuki: Alto, Swift, Gazelle

Soueast: Lioncel, Delica, Freeca, Soveran

Daimler Chrysler: Spinter Vito/Viano
Ford: Transit

17

2. :
&

1.8

2.0
1.8

15.5% (2009)

100%

1.6

90

1.4

80

1.2
1.0

0.7

0.8

1
2

4
11
9

70

60

12

50
40

0.6

0.4

30

0.4

20

0.2

10

0.0

0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

16

9
5

15

11

29

54

1990

2010f

18

2. :
+ =

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009F

(2005-2008)

111

137

155

180

208

17.5%

350

368

365

339

N/A

-1.1%

393

461

547

649

N/A

18.2%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009F

(2005-2008)

301

348

406

494

522

18%

23.5

25.8

27.9

30.1

31.6

8.60%

11.1

12.1

13.3

14.3

15.5

8.8%

73.8

78.7

84.7

90.4

94.4

7.0%

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

, EIU 2008

19

/:
+ / +

()

> 40,000

30,000 - 40,000
25,000 - 30,000
20,000 -25,000

17,500 - 20,000
0 - 17,500

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

20

Copyright 2010 Exolus. .

21

IT

HR

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

22

3. :
: 160

200

United
States

(1985 2005)

China

180

160

United
Kingdom

Japan

South
Korea

Germany

140

120
100

80
60

40
20

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

2008

23

3. : (R&D)?
(R&D): R , D

()

()

> 10
> 50

> 150

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

UNCTAD, WIR

24

3. :

()

()

> 10
> 50

> 150

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

25

4. /:
; ; ;
/

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

2009

26

5. :
-

Boehringer Ingelheim

.
2007200645% ;
32%.

Pfizer

: ADME.

14

12

10

GSK
2

AstraZeneca

1400150,000 .

2006

2007

2008

Preclinical
Development

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

2009e

2010e

2011e

Clinical
Development

, December 2007; Exolus Research

27

Copyright 2010 Exolus. .

28

14
(2009 2011)
%
60

50

40

30

20

10

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

France

Poland

Mexico

Vietnam

Canada

Indonesia

Australia

Germany

U.K.

Russia

Brazil

India

United States

China

2009 - 2011

29


; 2.85 ;

90 199740 50%; 20076%

20091.4200820101.2
2009

2010: 2.85

2.85

1997 -1%2007+4.3%

5 38 ppa);

10

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

: UBS; IMF; Other

30

9%

10%

4%
9%

38%
25%
5%

$5860

$7000

GDP (PPP)

$7.8

$14.3

GDP

$4.2

$14.3

/GDP

14%

5.10%

/GDP

20%

76%

/GDP

10%

-4%

47% (90s)

3% (81-91)

/GDP

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

Housing

Infrastructure

Environment
Disaster

Reconstruction
Rural
Development

Healthcare,
Education

Innovation
& Industrial Restructuring

Source: Chinas Stimulus vs. Americas Bailout, Housel 2008 ; National Development and Reform Commission March 2009

31

PV,

BPO
PVIT

Copyright 2010 Exolus. ..

Source: MOFCOM; NAROS; Various :

32

2020

2020

2020

2020

Slideshare @
http://www.slideshare.net/contest/worlds-best-presentation-contest-2010/entries
http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/india-2020-what-india-will-look-like-in-the-future
http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/brazil-2020-what-will-brazil-look-like-in-the-future
http://www.slideshare.net/Exolus/russia-2020-what-will-russia-look-like-in-the-future

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