University of California, San Diego Urban Studies and Planning HONORS THESIS

THE TRUE COST OF SUBSIDY REDUCTION: AN ANALYSIS OF UCSD TRANSPORTATION POLICY KRISTEN MACON COWELL

UCSD Transportation Services

UCSD Shuttles: 10

lines serving 3 million passenger trips/year

MTS: 2.5 million

passenger trips/year a 10x increase since 2003

Regional

Pass ($31) Bus Zone (free)

Transportation Services Systems

o Alternative transportation trips increased from 38% to 54% since 2000 o Between 2003 and 2006 shuttle ridership increased by 50% while S permit sales only increased by 16%
LEGEND
MTS Bus UCSD Shuttle

Regents Shuttle

Existing Research Campus Transit

Study of 35 universities implement Universal Access
Increased ridership between 70% and 200% Benefits for campus and local transit Reduces costs to students between $2,500 - $3,500

BruinGO - UCLA
29% new riders 71% switched from single occupancy vehicle (SOV) commutes

Reduces parking demand

750 1,000 spaces Approximately 25% of total supply

Parking costs

Each dollar spent on Eco-Pass reduces parking costs by $23 and $237

UCSD Transportation Services - Finances

Costs: $25 million MTS Ridership subsidies Debt for Pangea and Hopkins parking structures Shuttle Maintenance Shuttle labor and insurance Revenue: $23 million Parking Passes Parking Stations Parking Tickets Transportation Services department (TS) $2.1

million deficit since 2003

UCSD Transportation Services - Proposed Changes

Eliminate free Bus Zone program, which provides

access to MTS lines serving UCSD

Costs:

$1.16 per MTS ride at 2.5 million rides per year = $2.9 million

Eliminate UCSD Shuttle services and cover by MTS Costs: $4.6 million (21% of expenditures) Increase MTS regional pass from $31 to $46 a month

UCSD Transportation Services - Survey

Surveyed 2,000 students and faculty Students support shifting MTS service to user based fee Students support night and weekend fee Students against raising parking prices and cutting services

UCSD Survey Example

Transition Bus Zone program to a user-fee based

program. For example, all transit users at a discounted rate and they can ride any bus anywhere. Transportation Services will continue to subsidize the portion not paid by users.
Rank

your satisfaction on a scale of 1 to 10 point scale. 10 is extremely satisfied. 5 is neutral. 1 is not satisfied at all.

UCSD Survey Example

Cut transportation services currently offered to

operate within budget (shuttle routes, Bus Zone, etc.) and raise parking fees to increase in parking demand.
Rank

your satisfaction on a scale of 1 to 10 point scale. 10 is extremely satisfied. 5 is neutral. 1 is not satisfied at all.

UCSD Survey Review

Feedback Suggestion clarity Measure your willingness to pay for transportation services Required trade-offs

Purpose
Determine student preferences for commute options

and associated willingness to pay to switch mode Analyze the effect of Transportation Services policy changes given these findings

Methods - Survey
Campus resident or

commuter Ranked commute options 1 through 9 3 modes at 3 prices

Modes:
Parking

(driving) MTS bus UCSD shuttle

$40, $60, $80 per month

120 Respondents

Methods Sample Dataset

Binary variables

S Permit, Shuttle, Bus, Campus Rank and Price

Categorical/continuous

OLS Lesson Real Quick

Definition: Estimating unknown parameters in a linear regression model. This method minimizes the sum of squared vertical distances between the observed responses in the dataset and the response predicted by the linear approximation.

Data STATA Regression

OLS regression

Rank = 0 + 1(S Permit) + 2 (UCSD Shuttle)+ 3(Price) + 4(Campus)+

Cluster option Allows the residual errors from observations to be correlated with respondent Observations within respondents are non-independent Increased standard errors, but more accurate analysis Segmented market Binary variable for resident and commuter

Data - Output

Data - Interpretations
Mode Coefficient Price Coefficient = If respondents were to maintain the same rank, this is how much you would need to change the price to incentivize this shift from bus to shuttle or from bus to parking. Interpretation If there is a negative coefficient If there is a positive coefficient Example:

Findings - All Respondents

Changing from bus to parking and raising the price

by $13.85 makes students equally well-off. Changing from bus to shuttle and raising the price by $4.4 makes students equally well-off. Recall

Findings Commuters vs. Residents

Students will be equally well-off taking the bus as

driving given:
$15

increase in S Permits for commuters $10 increase in S Permits for residents

Students will be equally well-off taking the bus as

shuttle given:
$4.4

increase in Shuttle services for commuters $0.45 compensation to switch from bus to shuttle for residents
shuttle

is an inferior mode for residents

Analysis Parking and Bus Prices

Prices are moving in the wrong direction given mode

preference
$28

increase in Bus Zone access (servicing campus) $15 increase in MTS Regional transit pass $6 increase in S Permits

Transportation policy changes work against UCSDs

sustainability goals

Analysis Parking Demand

Regardless of user type, trade-off for parking is higher

than shuttle Students are equally as well-off with bus commutes as with driving at a $13 price increase in parking

Conversely, they require $13 compensation to use bus transit This means an increase in demand for parking given the proposed price increases for transit S permit price increases are not high enough

On average students will pay $2.34 (and $4.4 for

commuters) to switch from bus to shuttle

This is more efficient mechanism to deter SOV and maintain utility and mobility Revenue opportunities to be considered ($5 monthly pass)

Analysis Commuter vs. Resident

Residents require compensation to use shuttle

services, $0.45 Commuters will pay approximately $5/month for the shuttle Like comparing

Conclusions
Driving is the most preferred commute mode Commuters will pay an additional $15 to park over

riding the bus Eliminating shuttles will increase parking demand There are two distinct market demands: commuters and residents

Recommendations - Strategic
Do not eliminate the UCSD shuttle system MTS has little incentive to play ball Raise funds for shuttles/buses through commuter

specific fees
Operates

as a tax for drivers and a user-based fee for users

Increase parking permit fees Funds can support alternative transportation Adopt more flexible fee structures User type (commuter and resident fees) User-based

Recommendations - Organizational
Perform market research requiring trade-offs Distinguish between user types (residents and

commuters) in market research Solicit survey questions with defined figures, including subsidy rates, costs to user, and service provisions/access. Transparent communication with university community

Thank You!
Professor Michelle White Professor Maxim Sinitsyn Honors Thesis colleagues
Josh Bennett Sarah Butler Kate Elliott

UCSD Transportation Services

Eliud Escobedo Robert Holden Russ Thaxton

Urban Studies and Planning Program

Questions