SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.95563
R Square
0.913228
Adjusted R Square
0.90703
Standard Error
344.6303
Observations
16
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 17499890 17499890 147.3426 8.07E-09
14 1662780
118770
15 19162670

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 2593.218 214.327 12.09935 8.41E-09 2133.533 3052.904 2133.533 3052.904
X Variable 1 226.8706 18.6902 12.13848 8.07E-09 186.7841 266.9571 186.7841 266.9571

Upper 95.0%

intercept
trend

2593.218
226.8706

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.541015
R Square
0.292697
Adjusted R Square
0.242175
Standard Error
2435.993
Observations
16
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 34378980 34378980 5.793499 0.03046
14 83076868 5934062
15 1.17E+08

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 1907.625 1277.446 1.493312 0.157547 -832.223 4647.473 -832.223 4647.473
X Variable 1 317.9853 132.1103 2.406969 0.03046 34.63695 601.3336 34.63695 601.3336

Upper 95.0%

year

quarter
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

demand
2250
1737
2412
7269
3514
2143
3459
7056
4120
2766
2566
8253
5491
4382
4315
12035
5648
3696
4843
13097

deseasonalized demandfinal deseasonalised demand

1
2820.088787
2
3046.959375
3575
3
3273.829963
3783.75
4
3500.700551
3965.375
5
3727.57114
4069.625
6
3954.441728
16000
4118.75
7
4181.312316
14000
4272.375
8
4408.182904
4238.625
9
120004635.053493
4276.625
10
4861.924081
10000
4597.625
11
5088.794669
80005315.665257
4971
12
5391.625
13
5542.535846
6000
6083
14
5769.406434
40005996.277022
6575.375
15
6509.25
16
6223.14761
2000
6489.5
17
6450.018199
06676.888787
6688.25
18
1
19
6903.759375
20
7130.629963
21
22
23
24

seasonality index
0.79784722
0.570076521
0.736751764
2.076441527
0.942705013
0.54192226
0.827252245
1.600659535
0.88887863
0.56891057
0.504245144
1.552580834
0.990701757
0.75952354
0.719613184
1.933908812
0.875656444
0.55355123
2
0.701501854
1.836724114
0.899157813
0.598796824
0.697872838
1.800062965

forecast

level
trend

2593.218199
226.8705882

Series1

deseasonalized
8000
7000
3

6000
5000

6615.554
4541.497
5451.253
14469.11

4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1

eseasonalized demand

deseasonalized demand

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.917726
R Square
0.84222
Adjusted R Square
0.826442
Standard Error
298.6093
Observations
12
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 4759715 4759715 53.37947 2.58E-05
10 891675.1 89167.51
11 5651390

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 2894.533 229.0896 12.63494
1.8E-07 2384.089 3404.976 2384.089 3404.976
X Variable 1 182.441 24.97096 7.306126 2.58E-05 126.8022 238.0798 126.8022 238.0798

Upper 95.0%

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

2250
1737
2412
7269
3514
2143
3459
7056
4120
2766
2566
8253
5491
4382
4315
12035
5648
3696
4843
13097

3575
3783.75
3965.375
4069.625
4118.75
4272.375
4238.625
4276.625
4597.625
4971
5391.625
6083

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24

3076.974
3259.415
3441.856
3624.297
3806.738
3989.179
4171.62
4354.061
4536.502
4718.943
4901.384
5083.825
5266.266
5448.707
5631.148
5813.589

0.731238
0.532918
0.700785
2.00563
0.9231
0.537203
0.829174
1.620556
0.908189
0.586148
0.523526
1.623384
1.042674
0.804228
0.766274
2.07015
0.9013
0.615124
0.70494
1.82993

level
trend

5404.223
3800.527
4484.058
11973.88

error
-243.777
104.5269
-358.942
-1123.12

2894.533
182.441

mean errorabsolute deviation

mean absolute deviation
percentage absolute deviation tracking signal
-243.777
243.7766995
243.7766995 4.31616
4.316159693
-69.6249
104.5269141
69.6248927 2.828109
1.883790387
-166.064
358.941565
166.0637835 7.411554
3.428944528
-405.328
1123.121658
405.3282521 8.575412
3.094817532

tracking signal

year

quarter
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

demand
2250
1737
2412
7269
3514
2143
3459
7056
4120
2766
2566
8253
5491
4382
4315
12035
5648
3696
4843
13097

3417
3733
3834.5
4096.25
4043
4194.5
4350.25
4127
4426.25
4769
5173
5610.25
6555.75
6595
6423.5
6555.5

3417
3733
3834.5
4096.25
4043
4194.5
4350.25
4127
4426.25
4769
5173
5610.25 error
mean error
absolute deviation
mean absolute deviation
6555.75
907.75
907.75
907.75
907.75
6595
2899
1903.375
2899 1903.375
6423.5
1580.5
1795.75
1580.5 1795.75
6555.5
-6541.5
-288.5625
6541.5 2982.188

percentage absolute deviation MAPE

16.07206091
78.43614719
32.63473054
49.94655265

tracking signal
16.07206091
47.25410405
42.38097954
44.27237282

1
2
3
-0.387048098

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

year

quarter
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

demand
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

2250
1737
2412
7269
3514
2143
3459
7056
4120
2766
2566
8253
5491
4382
4315
12035
5648
3696
4843
13097

level
4610.5
3902.35
3252.745
3000.522
4281.065
4050.946
3478.562
3472.693
4547.685
4419.38
3923.366
3516.156
4937.209
5103.346
4886.943
4715.36
6911.252
6532.276
5681.393
5429.875
7730.013

forecast
4610.5
3902.35
3252.745
3000.522
4281.065
4050.946
3478.562
3472.693
4547.685
4419.38
3923.366
3516.156
4937.209
5103.346
4886.943
4715.36
6911.252
6532.276
5681.393
5429.875

error
mean error
absolute deviation
mean absolute deviatio
1263.252
1263.25184 1263.252 1263.252
2836.276
2049.764064 2836.276 2049.764
838.3934
1645.973843 838.3934 1645.974
-7667.12
-682.3007725 7667.125 3151.262

alpha

0.3

percentage MAPE
absolute deviation
tracking signal
22.36636 22.36636
1
76.73908 49.55272
2
17.31145 38.80563
3
58.54108 43.73949 -0.86607

year

quarter
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

demand
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

2250
1737
2412
7269
3514
2143
3459
7056
4120
2766
2566
8253
5491
4382
4315
12035
5648
3696
4843
13097

2595.19
2619.219
2437.833
2429.263
3878.293
4172.998
3888.912
3875.342
4894.983
4987.253
4541.572
3956.526
5086.231
5428.437
5342.789
5147.44
7226.803
7343.241
6635.719
6131.787
8100.58

182.266
118.9713
-1.17158
-4.13099
577.1331
464.1621
164.8629
93.48986
463.95
315.2781
10.89437
-227.482
315.3931
326.1182
161.4115
18.70752
842.9698
552.357
48.40523
-172.53
683.9995

alpha
beta

0.3
0.4

year

quarter
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

demand
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

2250
1737
2412
7269
3514
2143
3459
7056
4120
2766
2566
8253
5491
4382
4315
12035
5648
3696
4843
13097

level
2895.19
3000.296
3120.399
3263.715
3433.291
3012.625
2449.012
2352.139
3059.537
2928.931
2593.797
2313.717
3515.344
3644.999
3543.572
3466.278
5145.341
5010.821
4510.273
4431.811
6589.181

trend
182.266
151.402
138.8824
140.6559
152.2238
-76.932
-271.604
-201.712
161.9321
44.9169
-107.103
-176.294
374.8744
276.7864
125.5011
44.38306
698.2551
365.1451
18.86774
-20.0642
850.9095

Alpha
Beta
Gama
seasonality forecast
0.7978
0.57
0.7367
2.0764
2.096805
1.631615
1.253331
1.361954
1.834092
1.620375
1.343382
1.22621
1.786959
1.646703
1.441654
1.343253
1.841131
1.484146
1.151804
1.122293

2455.194
1796.468
2401.113
7068.836
7518.126
4789.921
2729.012
2928.782
5908.472
4818.747
3340.581
2620.93
6951.66
6458.016
5289.535
4715.705
10758.83
7978.718
5216.683
4951.271

0.3
0.4
0.5

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.541015
R Square
0.292697
Adjusted R Square
0.242175
Standard Error
2435.993
Observations
16
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 34378980 34378980 5.793499 0.03046
14 83076868 5934062
15 1.17E+08

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 1907.625 1277.446 1.493312 0.157547 -832.223 4647.473 -832.223 4647.473
X Variable 1 317.9853 132.1103 2.406969 0.03046 34.63695 601.3336 34.63695 601.3336

Upper 95.0%

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.96231
R Square
0.92604
Adjusted R Square
0.899146
Standard Error
888.6661
Observations
16
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
4 1.09E+08 27192212
11 8687001 789727.4
15 1.17E+08

F
Significance F
34.4324 3.67E-06

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 6203.375 666.4996 9.307395 1.51E-06 4736.419 7670.331 4736.419 7670.331
X Variable 1 244.9875 49.67794 4.931514 0.000449 135.6471 354.3279 135.6471 354.3279
X Variable 2 -4074.54 645.8133 -6.30916 5.76E-05 -5495.96 -2653.11 -5495.96 -2653.11
X Variable 3 -5406.28 636.1881 -8.49792 3.66E-06 -6806.52 -4006.03 -6806.52 -4006.03
X Variable 4 -5220.26 630.3424 -8.28163 4.69E-06 -6607.64 -3832.89 -6607.64 -3832.89

Upper 95.0%

year

quarter
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

demand
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

2250
1737
2412
7269
3514
2143
3459
7056
4120
2766
2566
8253
5491
4382
4315
12035
5648
3696
4843
13097

Quarterly time
Quarter
period
1 Quarter 2 Quarter 3 Forcast
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0

0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0

0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0

Error

6293.625 645.625
5206.875 1510.875
5637.875 794.875
11103.13 -1993.88

6203.375 244.9875

-4074.54

-5406.28

-5220.26