ERD WORKING PAPER SERIES NO.

18
ECONOMICS AND RESEARCH DEPARTMENT

Poverty and Patterns of Growth

Rana Hasan and M. G. Quibria

August 2002

Asian Development Bank

ERD Working Paper No. 18

POVERTY AND PATTERNS OF GROWTH

Rana Hasan and M.G. Quibria

August 2002

Rana Hasan is a Fellow (Research Program) at the East West Center. M. G. Quibria is Advisor with the Operations Evaluation Department, Asian Development Bank. This paper draws on research carried out for the Asian Development Bank Institute project, Poverty and Policy: What Do Data Tell Us?.

Asian Development Bank P.O. Box 789 0980 Manila Philippines

2002 by Asian Development Bank

August 2002 ISSN 1655-5252

The views expressed in this paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the Asian Development Bank.

Foreword
The ERD Working Paper Series is a forum for ongoing and recently completed research and policy studies undertaken in the Asian Development Bank or on its behalf. The Series is a quick-disseminating, informal publication meant to stimulate discussion and elicit feedback. Papers published under this Series could subsequently be revised for publication as articles in professional journals or chapters in books.

Contents
Abstract I. II. III. Introduction Empirical Framework and Data Results A. How Does Aggregate Growth Correlate With Poverty Reduction? B. Does the Sectoral Composition of Growth Matter? Conclusion References vii 1 2 4 4 5 7 8

IV.

Abstract
We use a recently constructed cross-country data set on absolute poverty to examine whether there is regional and sectoral variation in the relationship between poverty and economic growth. We find that the povertygrowth linkage is strongest in East Asia and that this linkage is essentially driven by growth in the industrial sector. By contrast, in Latin America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa, agriculture has had a greater impact on poverty reduction. We argue that these results should not be interpreted to mean that all regions other than East Asia need to emphasize agriculture to reduce poverty. Rather, these countriesespecially labor-abundant ones such as those of South Asiashould attempt to improve their policy and institutional environments that stand in the way of their exploiting their comparative advantage in labor-intensive industries and bringing about a rapid reduction in poverty.

I.

INTRODUCTION

ross-country studies of poverty show a close link between aggregate economic growth and poverty reduction (see Quibria 2002 for a review of this literature). A set of recent studies attempts to further extend the growth-poverty relationship to include the impact of sectoral growth on the incidence of poverty. These studies argue that while aggregate growth matters, some patterns of growthparticularly agricultural growthare more effective in reducing poverty. Using data from India, Ravallion and Datt (1996) examine the impact of sectoral growth on poverty reduction. They find that growth in the primary sector is more effective in reducing poverty than growth in the secondary sector, which has no impact on poverty either for the rural or the urban sector. Kakwani (2001) reports similar findings for the Philippines. He notes that while a one percent increase in growth in agriculture reduces the incidence of poverty by a little more than one percent, the corresponding figures for industry and services are substantially lower at around a quarter to a third of one percent. These writings have spawned a kind of agricultural fundamentalism, which advocates that agriculture should be accorded the highest priority for reducing poverty. Indeed, such fundamentalism was most ardently stated by Mellor (2000, 3), who argued: There has been a tendency to generalize that economic growth reduces poverty when in fact it is the direct and indirect effect of agricultural growth that accounts for virtually all the poverty decline. In this note, we shall argue that the above elasticity resultswhich provide a quantitative codification of the growth-poverty linkageare, indeed, very context-specific. The experience of India cited above, for example, is in contrast with the experiences of the East Asian miracle economies. During the period from the 1960s through the mid-1990s, when the East Asian economies achieved their spectacular success in growth and poverty reduction, the process was essentially propelled by a rapid increase in the production and export of laborintensive manufacturing (ADB, 1997). Policy differences between India and the miracle economies of East Asia may explain the differential impact of industrial growth on poverty reduction. The latter were not only far more open to trade, they also had fairly flexible labor markets. Industrial development in India, on the other hand, has taken place in the context of restrictive trade and industrial policies that not only inhibited the growth of labor-intensive manufacturing but also encouraged inefficient import-substituting, capital-intensive industries. Furthermore, formal labor markets in India have been encumbered by many rules and regulations that were originally intended to protect the well being of the workers but appear to have ended up in limiting employment growth (see, for example, Fallon and Lucas 1993). Thus, the lackluster growth of the industrial sector and its ability to influence poverty significantly in India may well be an artifact of its policy and institutional environments. More

ERD Working Paper No. 18 POVERTY AND PATTERNS OF GROWTH

generally, a low elasticity between growth and poverty reduction may well be a reflection of the constraining effects of trade, industrial and labor market policies in particular countries than the inherent limitation of the industrial sector to contribute to poverty reduction. In this note, we use a recently constructed panel data on absolute poverty (Hasan, Quibria, and Kimhenceforth HQK2002) to examine whether the relationship between poverty and growthaggregate as well as sectoralvaries across the regions of the developing world. Our empirical results suggest considerable regional variations. While we do not examine the reasons behind these regional differences in a detailed manner here, we argue that there is evidence to suggest that part of the variation may be due to differences in the policy environments in which economic activity takes place in these economies.

II.

EMPIRICAL FRAMEWORK AND DATA

We examine the relationship between growth and poverty in terms of the simple estimating equation: lnPit = + ln Yit + ui + it, (1)

were Pit denotes poverty and is defined as the fraction of the population having consumption below a predefined level of expenditure, or poverty line, in country i and at date t, Yit denotes per capita income, and ui and it denote error terms. The first error term, ui, captures countryspecific but time-invariant errors in measuring povertyperhaps due to different methodologies and practices in the surveys used to measure poverty across countries, for examplewhile the second term, it, captures the residual errors in measuring poverty. Because we are also interested in examining the relationship between poverty and sectoral growth, we also estimate the following equation: lnPit = + Aln Yit + Iln Yit + Sln Yit + ui + it,
A I S A I S

(2)

where Yit , Yit , and Yit denote output per capita in the agricultural, manufacturing, and services 1 sectors, respectively, and all other variables are defined as in equation 1. We estimate both equations using country fixed effects. Our data requirements are relatively simple. We obtain data on per capita incomes (real GDP per capita in 1996 PPP dollars) from the Penn World Tables (PWT), Version 6 (Heston et al. 2001). Output in each of the three sectors is in turn derived by multiplying real GDP by the 2 share of sector value added reported in the World Development Indicators (World Bank 2001).
1 2

Note that Yit = Yit + Yit + Yit . The World Development Indicators does not contain data for Taipei,China. We use country sources for Taipei,China data.

Section II Empirical Framework and Data

Our data on poverty are obtained from HQK. HQK use recent compilations of income and expenditure distribution data (Dollar and Kraay 2001, Chen and Ravillon 2001, Deininger and Squire 1996) and National Accounts-based information on per capita private consumption expenditures (PWT) to derive estimates of absolute poverty in 1996 PPP dollars. The estimating process, which uses the computer algorithm devised by Chen, Datt, and Ravallion (2001), entails two major steps. First, a Lorenz curve is estimated using information on the distribution of income/expenditures and mean per capita private consumption. Second, the estimated Lorenz curve is used in conjunction with a poverty line to infer the incidence of poverty. Since estimates of poverty based on income distributions are likely to be higher than those based on expenditure distributions all else being the same, we always include a dummy for poverty estimates derived from income surveys in our regressions. For our analysis we define poverty in terms of the two-dollars-a-day poverty line. This choice was guided by two considerations: First, as HQK point out, two-dollars-a-day poverty estimates are more reliable than one-dollar-a-day poverty estimates on account of computational factors. Second, increasingly, international policy discussions are being framed in terms of the two-dollars-a-day poverty yardstick. For example, recently negotiated World Bank IDA replenishments define poverty in terms of the two-dollars-a-day yardstick. It may be noted in passing that as is the case with the recent estimates of Bhalla (2002) and Sala-i-Martin (2002), the HQK poverty estimates are often lower than those of the World Bank for comparable poverty yardsticks (although not as low as the estimates of Bhalla and Sala-i-Martin seem to be). On average HQKs two-dollars-a-day poverty estimates tend to lie halfway between the World Banks one- and two-dollars-a-day poverty estimates for overlapping country and year 3 observations. Our poverty data consists of 292 observations from 45 countries belonging to four developing regions: East Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. There are at least two observations per country. The observations span 10 years or more for the large majority of countries (33 out of 45) and the overall time period covered by the data extends from 1960 to 1998. More details on the poverty datasuch as the number of observations on poverty per country and poverty incidence in the first and last available year 4 can be found in the appendix table.

The key difference between the poverty estimates of HQK and those of the World Bank (or Chen and Ravallion 2001 on which the World Bank numbers are based), lies in the measure of mean per capita private consumption expenditures used in computing poverty estimates. As mentioned above, HQK use per capita private consumption expenditures based on National Accounts data (as does Bhalla 2002). In contrast, the World Bank relies on household survey data for its measure of mean per capita consumption expenditures. Since the National Accounts numbers tend to be higher than the survey based numbers, the former (latter) will yield lower (higher) poverty estimates for any given poverty line. It may be noted that a distinctive feature of the HQK poverty data is the relatively large coverage in terms of developing countries included and time-period spanned (see, for example, the datasets of Timmer 1997 on country coverage and Chen and Ravallion 2001 on time period spanned).

ERD Working Paper No. 18 POVERTY AND PATTERNS OF GROWTH

III. RESULTS
A. How Does Aggregate Growth Correlate with Poverty Reduction?

The scatter plot of poverty versus per capita income in Figure 1 shows that richer developing countries tend to have lower levels of poverty. This is, of course, a somewhat trivial finding but it confirms that our data shows patterns exhibited by other datasets on poverty. The regional dimension of the poverty and aggregate growth relationship can be found in Table 1. This table presents the relevant results for the four major regions of the world for which we have relatively large numbers of countries and observations. As can be seen, the growth elasticity for East Asia is the highest, followed by Latin America, South Asia, and finally Sub-Saharan Africa. Thus according to our estimates, while a one percent increase in per capita income would reduce the incidence of absolute poverty by 1.6 percent in East Asia, it would 5 reduce poverty by only 0.71 percent in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Figure 1. Poverty versus per Capita Income
6 5

In (Poverty Incidence)

4 3 2 1 0 -1
In(Y)

5.5

6.5

7.5

8.5

9.5

10

Table 1. Poverty and Growth by Region: Fixed Effects Estimates INC ln(Y) Adjusted R-Square Observations East Asia -0.03 (-0.76) -1.60*** (-9.36) 0.84 70 Latin America 0.26* (1.79) -1.13*** (-6.11) 0.68 107 South Asia 0.31*** (3.31) -0.82*** (-10.12) 0.83 67 Sub Saharan Africa 0.17* (1.72) -0.71*** (-4.53) 0.93 48

Notes: T-statistics are based on heteroskedastic-consistent standard errors and are in parenthesis. Intercept term not reported. *Significantly different from zero at the 10 percent level. ***Significantly different from zero at the 1 percent level.

Though not reported, it may be noted that random effects models gave qualitatively similar results.

Section III Results

B.

Does the Sectoral Composition of Growth Matter?

As noted earlier, individual country studies suggest that there is a large degree of variation across countries in the poverty impact of sectoral growth. We now turn to examine this issue with our data set. Table 2 reports the results. The key finding is that industrial growth has a strong and beneficial impact on poverty only in East Asia. Industrial growth of one percent in East Asia is associated with a reduction of poverty of about 1.3 percent. In contrast, industrial growth in Latin America and the Caribbean has been associated with greater poverty, though this effect is statistically insignificant. Like East Asia, industrial growth in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa are also associated with poverty reduction. However, the magnitudes involved are negligible and statistically insignificant. The key drivers of poverty reduction in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa appear to be agricultural growth. Our finding on South Asia parallels that of Ravallion and Datt (1996) for India. What explains these results? It was certainly not due to the fact that the structure or location of poverty was fundamentally different from that of other regions of the world. All over the developing world, poverty is predominantly a rural phenomenon. The critical difference, however, between the East Asian economies and the rest of the developing world is that unlike the rest of the developing world, East Asia succeeded in rapidly transforming the structure of their economiesfrom being rural agrarian to urban industrial. This transformation process essentially followed the classical dual economy construct, so elegantly described by Nobel Laureate Arthur Lewis (1954).
Table 2. Poverty and the Sectoral Composition of Growth: Fixed Effects Estimates East Asia INC ln(YAgriculture) ln(YIndustry) ln(YServices) Adjusted R-Square Observations 0.05 (0.66) 0.40 (0.75) -1.31*** (-4.28) 0.02 (0.08) 0.84 70 Latin America 0.30** (2.32) -0.33 (-1.47) 0.28 (1.12) -1.21*** (-4.88) 0.71 107 South Asia 0.36*** (3.95) -1.17*** (-4.29) -0.03 (-0.20) -0.22 (-1.30) 0.87 67 Sub-Saharan Africa 0.08 (0.76) -0.32*** (-3.05) -0.03 (-0.31) -0.16 (-1.55) 0.93 48

Notes: T-statistics are based on heteroskedastic-consistent standard errors and are in parenthesis. Intercept term not reported. **Significantly different from zero at the 5 percent level. ***Significantly different from zero at the 1 percent level.

The important question is why East Asian countries succeeded while others did not in fostering such a growth process and reducing poverty. The answer seems to lie in the interplay of policies and institutions. As suggested earlier, the successful East Asian economies were able

ERD Working Paper No. 18 POVERTY AND PATTERNS OF GROWTH

to promote a conducive policy and institutional environment to foster growth and reduce poverty. This environment, which was harnessed by openness, in conjunction with macroeconomic stability and favorable industrial and labor market policies, helped East Asia to exploit their comparative advantage in labor-intensive manufacturing. The data on policy variables, along with factor endowments, appear consistent with this explanation. Table 3 presents region specific averages of variables that reflect the economic circumstances of countries. Thus the table includes measures that relate to openness, labor market regulations, macroeconomic conditions, and factor endowments. Openness is measured in a variety of ways including the share of trade in GDP, an average tariff rate (computed by dividing total import duties by the volume of imports), and the Sachs-Warner dummy indicator, which classifies an economy as either open (1) or closed (0). Labor market regulations are captured via the number of ILO Conventions ratified as well as an index of labor market 6 rigidity developed by Forteza and Rama (2001). Macroeconomic conditions are captured through the rate of inflation while factor endowments are captured by the amount of arable 7 land per capita.
Table 3. Policy Environment and Relative Land Endowment by Region Region East Asia Latin America and Caribbean South Asia Sub-Saharan Africa Trade Share (%) 65.62 55.93 33.98 57.39 Average Tariff Rate (%) 9.12 10.63 22.05 15.77 Sachs Warner Openness 0.74 0.21 0.07 0.07 Labor Market Rigidity Index* 0.18 0.32 0.27 0.21 Inflation Arable Rate Land (%) per Capitaa 7.76 1.20 104.29 9.73 28.14 2.07 1.43 3.04

ILO Conventions 9.35 37.69 23.71 27.24

Notes: The starred variable is time-invariant and only varies by country. Un-starred variables are regional averages of annual country-specific values averaged over 1980-1990.
a

Arable land is measured in square kilometers multiplied by 1000 for ease of exposition.

Focusing first on openness, we find that each of the three measures reveals East Asia to be the most open region and South Asia to be the least open region. Each of these measures can be subject to criticismsee in particular the discussion of the Sachs-Warner measure of openness by Rodriguez and Rodrik (2000). Taken together, however, the three measures seem to portray a fairly consistent picture of the relative openness of the various regions. Similarly, both

Once a country ratifies a particular Convention, it commits to make it legally binding. Thus the number of Conventions ratified by a country may be taken as an indictor of the extent to which labor markets are regulated. More details on the precise definitions of and sources used to construct these measures may be found in HQK and Hasan (forthcoming).

Section IV Conclusion

the ILO variable as well as rigidity index reveal East Asia to have had on average the least regulated, and therefore most flexible, labor markets. In contrast, Latin America has had the most tightly regulated labor markets with South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa in between. Average rates of inflation in East Asia have tended to be the lowest followed closely by South Asia. Low inflation is a good indicator of prudent macroeconomic policies and thus in this regard, Sub-Saharan Africa and especially Latin America have performed poorly. Finally, the data on factor endowments reveal East Asia as the most labor abundant region followed by 8 South Asia, Latin America, and Sub-Saharan Africa in that order. These data support the notion that East Asian economies have been more open to trade, less regulated in labor markets, and relatively more abundant in labor than other regions. The success of East Asian countries seems to lie in their adopting a policy regime that put few barriers to exploiting their comparative advantage in labor. This is in sharp contrast with the situation in of South Asian economies, where protectionist policies and labor laws have worked against their exploiting comparative advantage in labor-intensive products and encouraged unduly capital intensive pattern of industrialization. In short, the patterns of elasticities in the preceding tables may well reflect the outcome of countries policy environment as well as structural features such as factor endowments.

IV. CONCLUSION
This paper makes a quantitative investigation into the relationship between growth and poverty reduction within the framework of a cross-country regression model. Our empirical exercise suggests that though aggregate growth is important, the impact of growth on poverty seems to vary across country groups. The impact of economic growth on poverty has been the highest in East Asia, followed by Latin America, South Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa. However, the impact of sectoral growth on poverty has been far from uniform. In East Asia, industrial growth has been the principal instrument of poverty reduction, whereas in the context of Latin America, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, agriculture growth has had a greater impact. In our view, the above results should not be interpreted to mean that all regions other than East Asia need to emphasize agriculture to reduce poverty. Rather, these countries especially labor-abundant ones such as those of South Asiashould attempt to improve their policy and institutional environments that stand in the way of their exploiting their comparative advantage in labor-intensive industries and bringing about a rapid reduction in 9 poverty.

The same patterns appear in the data if averages of the time-varying variables were taken over the 19701990 period. Industries do not suffer from the dual elasticity constraints of demand and supply the way agricultural production and demand do. In light of these constraints, labor-intensive industries can be a more potent instrument of poverty reduction in labor-surplus economies, than agriculture.

ERD Working Paper No. 18 POVERTY AND PATTERNS OF GROWTH

References
Asian Development Bank, 1997. Emerging Asia. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Bhalla, S., 2002. Imagine Theres No Country: Poverty, Inequality, and Growth in the Era of Globalization. Institute for International Economics. Chen, S., and M. Ravallion, 2001. Global Poverty Monitoring. Available: http://www.worldbank.org/ research/povmonitor/. Chen, S., G. Datt, and M. Ravillon, 2001. A Program for Calculating Poverty Measures from Grouped Data. Available: http://www.worldbank.org/research/povmonitor/software.htm. Deininger, K., and L. Squire, 1996. A New Data Set Measuring Income Inequality. The World Bank Economic Review 10(3):565-91. Dollar, D., and A. Kraay, 2001. Growth is Good for the Poor. Development Research Group, World Bank, Washington, D. C. Fallon, P., and R.E.B. Lucas, 1993. Job Security Regulations and the Dynamic Demand for Industrial Labor in India and Zimbabwe. Journal of Development Economics 40:241-75. Forteza, A., and M. Rama, 2001. Labor Market Rigidity and the Success of Economic Reforms Across more than One Hundred Countries. Working Paper 2521, The World Bank, Washington D. C. Heston, A., R. Summers, and B. Aten, 2001. Penn World Table Version 6.0. Center for International Comparisons at the University of Pennsylvania (CICUP). Hasan, R., forthcoming. The Impact of Trade and Labor Market Regulations on Employment and Wages: Evidence from Developing Countries. In R. Hasan and D. Mitra, eds., The Impact of Trade on Labor: Issues, Perspectives, and Experiences from Developing Asia. Amsterdam: Elsevier Science. Hasan, R., M.G. Quibria, and Y.S. Kim, 2002. Absolute Poverty and the Role of Policy: Evidence from Cross-Country Data. Asian Development Bank and East-West Center. Mimeo. Kakwani, N., 2001. Pro-Poor Growth and Policies. Paper presented at the Asian Development Bank Annual Meeting Seminars in Honolulu, Hawaii. Lewis, A., 1954. Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labor. Manchester School 22:139-91. Mellor, J. W., 2000. Faster More Equitable Growth: The Relation Between Growth in Agriculture and Poverty Reduction. CAER II Discussion Paper #70. Harvard Institute for International Development. Quibria, M. G., 2002. Growth and Poverty: Lessons from the East Asian Miracle Revisited. ADB Institute Research Paper 33, Tokyo, Japan. Ravallion M., and G. Datt, 1996. How Important to Indias Poor Is the Sectoral Composition of Growth? The World Bank Economic Review 10(1):1-25.

References

Rodriguez, F., and D. Rodrik, 2000. Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptics Guide to the Cross-National Evidence. In B. Bernanke and K. Rogoff, eds., Macroeconomics Annual. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press for National Bureau of Economic Research. Sala-i-Martin, X., 2002. The World Distribution of Income. Working Paper, Columbia University. Timmer, P., 1997. How Well Do the Poor Connect to the Growth Process? CAER II Discussion Paper No. 17, HIID, Harvard. World Bank, 2001. World Development Indicators 2001. Washington D. C.

ERD Working Paper No. 18 POVERTY AND PATTERNS OF GROWTH

Appendix Table. Poverty: Two Dollars-a-Day First Year Region and Economy Year East Asia and Pacific Peoples Republic of China 1980 Indonesia 1976 Korea, Rep. 1965 Malaysia 1970 Philippines 1961 Taipei,China 1964 Thailand 1969 Latin America and Caribbean Brazil 1960 Chile 1968 Colombia 1964 Costa Rica 1961 Dominica 1989 Dominican Republic 1989 Ecuador 1968 El Salvador 1965 Guatemala 1987 Honduras 1968 Jamaica 1975 Mexico 1963 Panama 1979 Paraguay 1991 Peru 1985 Trinidad and Tobago 1981 Venezuela 1962 South Asia Bangladesh 1963 India 1960 Nepal 1977 Pakistan 1964 Sri Lanka 1963 Sub-Saharan Africa Ethiopia 1981 Ghana 1987 Guinea 1991 Ivory Coast 1985 Kenya 1992 Lesotho 1986 Madagascar 1960 Mali 1989 Mauritania 1993 Niger 1960 Nigeria 1985 Senegal 1960 South Africa 1993 Tanzania 1964 Uganda 1989 Zambia 1976 Source: Hasan, Quibria, and Kim (2002). Poverty 83 76 40 45 49 46 58 67 16 49 20 18 23 39 61 31 61 28 34 27 5 15 7 31 62 83 93 78 65 93 61 29 28 75 47 57 74 68 52 61 57 75 102 86 76 Gini Index 29 34 36 51 52 33 44 56 46 65 49 50 51 38 55 58 62 46 58 49 40 46 42 43 37 33 55 38 47 32 35 47 41 57 56 54 37 50 34 39 60 59 56 44 52 Year 1998 1996 1985 1992 1997 1979 1992 1997 1994 1996 1996 1996 1996 1995 1996 1989 1996 1996 1995 1997 1995 1997 1992 1996 1995 1997 1996 1996 1995 1995 1997 1994 1995 1994 1993 1993 1994 1995 1995 1997 1994 1994 1993 1993 1996 Last Year Poverty 37 9 6 12 25 1 27 14 12 21 16 15 21 25 18 33 51 11 10 17 24 16 1 14 46 47 71 30 8 95 54 17 35 71 56 79 82 59 78 82 57 76 95 88 83 Gini Index 40 36 35 48 46 28 54 52 55 57 47 49 49 44 52 60 54 36 54 49 59 46 40 49 34 38 37 31 34 40 33 40 37 45 58 43 50 39 51 51 41 60 38 39 50 # of Obs 18 10 10 7 7 10 8 19 7 9 11 2 2 4 4 2 6 8 7 6 2 4 3 11 13 27 5 13 9 2 6 2 6 2 2 2 2 2 3 6 2 2 2 3 4

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Applying Logit Analysis Jungsoo Lee and Clarita Barretto, February 1984 Alternatives to Institutional Credit Programs in the Agricultural Sector of Low-Income Countries Jennifer Sour, March 1984 Economic Scene in Asia and Its Special Features Kedar N. Kohli, November 1984 The Effect of Terms of Trade Changes on the Balance of Payments and Real National Income of Asian Developing Countries Jungsoo Lee and Lutgarda Labios, January 1985 Cause and Effect in the World Sugar Market: Some Empirical Findings 1951-1982 Yoshihiro Iwasaki, February 1985 Sources of Balance of Payments Problem in the 1970s: The Asian Experience Pradumna Rana, February 1985 Indias Manufactured Exports: An Analysis of Supply Sectors Ifzal Ali, February 1985 Meeting Basic Human Needs in Asian Developing Countries Jungsoo Lee and Emma Banaria, March 1985 The Impact of Foreign Capital Inflow on Investment and Economic Growth in Developing Asia Evelyn Go, May 1985 The Climate for Energy Development in the Pacific and Asian Region: Priorities and Perspectives V.V. Desai, April 1986 Impact of Appreciation of the Yen on Developing Member Countries of the Bank Jungsoo Lee, Pradumna Rana, and Ifzal Ali, May 1986 Smuggling and Domestic Economic Policies in Developing Countries A.H.M.N. Chowdhury, October 1986 Public Investment Criteria: Economic Internal Rate of Return and Equalizing Discount Rate Ifzal Ali, November 1986 Review of the Theory of Neoclassical Political Economy: An Application to Trade Policies M.G. Quibria, December 1986 Factors Influencing the Choice of Location: Local and Foreign Firms in the Philippines E.M. Pernia and A.N. Herrin, February 1987 A Demographic Perspective on Developing Asia and Its Relevance to the Bank E.M. Pernia, May 1987 Emerging Issues in Asia and Social Cost Benefit Analysis I. Ali, September 1988 Shifting Revealed Comparative Advantage: Experiences of Asian and Pacific Developing Countries P.B. Rana, November 1988 Agricultural Price Policy in Asia: Issues and Areas of Reforms I. Ali, November 1988 Service Trade and Asian Developing Economies M.G. Quibria, October 1989 A Review of the Economic Analysis of Power Projects in Asia and Identification of Areas of Improvement I. Ali, November 1989 Growth Perspective and Challenges for Asia: Areas for Policy Review and Research I. Ali, November 1989 An Approach to Estimating the Poverty Alleviation Impact of an Agricultural Project I. Ali, January 1990

No. 48

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No. 50

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No. 52

No. 53

No. 54

No. 55

No. 56

No. 57

No. 58

No. 59

No. 60

No. 61

No. 62

No. 63

No. 64 No. 65

No. 66

No. 67

Economic Growth Performance of Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand: The Human Resource Dimension E.M. Pernia, January 1990 Foreign Exchange and Fiscal Impact of a Project: A Methodological Framework for Estimation I. Ali, February 1990 Public Investment Criteria: Financial and Economic Internal Rates of Return I. Ali, April 1990 Evaluation of Water Supply Projects: An Economic Framework Arlene M. Tadle, June 1990 Interrelationship Between Shadow Prices, Project Investment, and Policy Reforms: An Analytical Framework I. Ali, November 1990 Issues in Assessing the Impact of Project and Sector Adjustment Lending I. Ali, December 1990 Some Aspects of Urbanization and the Environment in Southeast Asia Ernesto M. Pernia, January 1991 Financial Sector and Economic Development: A Survey Jungsoo Lee, September 1991 A Framework for Justifying Bank-Assisted Education Projects in Asia: A Review of the Socioeconomic Analysis and Identification of Areas of Improvement Etienne Van De Walle, February 1992 Medium-term Growth-Stabilization Relationship in Asian Developing Countries and Some Policy Considerations Yun-Hwan Kim, February 1993 Urbanization, Population Distribution, and Economic Development in Asia Ernesto M. Pernia, February 1993 The Need for Fiscal Consolidation in Nepal: The Results of a Simulation Filippo di Mauro and Ronald Antonio Butiong, July 1993 A Computable General Equilibrium Model of Nepal Timothy Buehrer and Filippo di Mauro, October 1993 The Role of Government in Export Expansion in the Republic of Korea: A Revisit Yun-Hwan Kim, February 1994 Rural Reforms, Structural Change, and Agricultural Growth in the Peoples Republic of China Bo Lin, August 1994 Incentives and Regulation for Pollution Abatement with an Application to Waste Water Treatment Sudipto Mundle, U. Shankar, and Shekhar Mehta, October 1995 Saving Transitions in Southeast Asia Frank Harrigan, February 1996 Total Factor Productivity Growth in East Asia: A Critical Survey Jesus Felipe, September 1997 Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan: Policy Issues and Operational Implications Ashfaque H. Khan and Yun-Hwan Kim, July 1999 Fiscal Policy, Income Distribution and Growth Sailesh K. Jha, November 1999

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ECONOMIC STAFF PAPERS (ES)

No. 1 International Reserves: Factors Determining Needs and Adequacy Evelyn Go, May 1981 Domestic Savings in Selected Developing Asian Countries Basil Moore, assisted by A.H.M. Nuruddin Chowdhury, September 1981 Changes in Consumption, Imports and Exports of Oil Since 1973: A Preliminary Survey of the Developing Member Countries of the Asian Development Bank Dal Hyun Kim and Graham Abbott, September 1981 By-Passed Areas, Regional Inequalities, and Development Policies in Selected Southeast Asian Countries William James, October 1981 Asian Agriculture and Economic Development William James, March 1982 Inflation in Developing Member Countries: An Analysis of Recent Trends A.H.M. Nuruddin Chowdhury and J. Malcolm Dowling, March 1982 Industrial Growth and Employment in Developing Asian Countries: Issues and Perspectives for the Coming Decade Ulrich Hiemenz, March 1982 Petrodollar Recycling 1973-1980. Part 1: Regional Adjustments and the World Economy Burnham Campbell, April 1982 Developing Asia: The Importance of Domestic Policies Economics Office Staff under the direction of Seiji Naya, May 1982 Financial Development and Household Savings: Issues in Domestic Resource Mobilization in Asian Developing Countries Wan-Soon Kim, July 1982 Industrial Development: Role of Specialized Financial Institutions Kedar N. Kohli, August 1982 Petrodollar Recycling 1973-1980. Part II: Debt Problems and an Evaluation of Suggested Remedies Burnham Campbell, September 1982 Credit Rationing, Rural Savings, and Financial Policy in Developing Countries William James, September 1982 Small and Medium-Scale Manufacturing Establishments in ASEAN Countries: Perspectives and Policy Issues Mathias Bruch and Ulrich Hiemenz, March 1983 Income Distribution and Economic Growth in Developing Asian Countries J. Malcolm Dowling and David Soo, March 1983 Long-Run Debt-Servicing Capacity of Asian Developing Countries: An Application of Critical Interest Rate Approach Jungsoo Lee, June 1983 External Shocks, Energy Policy, and Macroeconomic Performance of Asian Developing Countries: A Policy Analysis William James, July 1983 The Impact of the Current Exchange Rate System on Trade and Inflation of Selected Developing Member Countries Pradumna Rana, September 1983 Asian Agriculture in Transition: Key Policy Issues William James, September 1983 The Transition to an Industrial Economy in Monsoon Asia Harry T. Oshima, October 1983 The Significance of Off-Farm Employment and Incomes in Post-War East Asian Growth Harry T. Oshima, January 1984 Income Distribution and Poverty in Selected Asian Countries John Malcolm Dowling, Jr., November 1984 ASEAN Economies and ASEAN Economic Cooperation Narongchai Akrasanee, November 1984 Economic Analysis of Power Projects Nitin Desai, January 1985 Exports and Economic Growth in the Asian Region Pradumna Rana, February 1985 Patterns of External Financing of DMCs E. Go, May 1985 Industrial Technology Development the Republic of Korea S.Y. Lo, July 1985 Risk Analysis and Project Selection: A Review of Practical Issues J.K. Johnson, August 1985 Rice in Indonesia: Price Policy and Comparative Advantage I. Ali, January 1986 Effects of Foreign Capital Inflows on Developing Countries of Asia Jungsoo Lee, Pradumna B. Rana, and Yoshihiro Iwasaki, April 1986 Economic Analysis of the Environmental Impacts of Development Projects John A. Dixon et al., EAPI, East-West Center, August 1986 Science and Technology for Development: Role of the Bank Kedar N. Kohli and Ifzal Ali, November 1986 Satellite Remote Sensing in the Asian and Pacific Region Mohan Sundara Rajan, December 1986 Changes in the Export Patterns of Asian and Pacific Developing Countries: An Empirical Overview Pradumna B. Rana, January 1987 Agricultural Price Policy in Nepal Gerald C. Nelson, March 1987 Implications of Falling Primary Commodity Prices for Agricultural Strategy in the Philippines Ifzal Ali, September 1987 Determining Irrigation Charges: A Framework Prabhakar B. Ghate, October 1987 The Role of Fertilizer Subsidies in Agricultural Production: A Review of Select Issues M.G. Quibria, October 1987 Domestic Adjustment to External Shocks in Developing Asia Jungsoo Lee, October 1987 Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization through Financial Development: Indonesia Philip Erquiaga, November 1987 Recent Trends and Issues on Foreign Direct Investment in Asian and Pacific Developing Countries P.B. Rana, March 1988 Manufactured Exports from the Philippines: A Sector Profile and an Agenda for Reform I. Ali, September 1988 A Framework for Evaluating the Economic Benefits of Power Projects I. Ali, August 1989 Promotion of Manufactured Exports in Pakistan

No. 21

No. 2

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No. 24 No. 25 No. 26 No. 27

No. 4

No. 5 No. 6

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No. 45

No. 46

No. 47

No. 48

No. 49

No. 50

No. 51

No. 52

Jungsoo Lee and Yoshihiro Iwasaki, September 1989 Education and Labor Markets in Indonesia: A Sector Survey Ernesto M. Pernia and David N. Wilson, September 1989 Industrial Technology Capabilities and Policies in Selected ADCs Hiroshi Kakazu, June 1990 Designing Strategies and Policies for Managing Structural Change in Asia Ifzal Ali, June 1990 The Completion of the Single European Community Market in 1992: A Tentative Assessment of its Impact on Asian Developing Countries J.P. Verbiest and Min Tang, June 1991 Economic Analysis of Investment in Power Systems Ifzal Ali, June 1991 External Finance and the Role of Multilateral Financial Institutions in South Asia: Changing Patterns, Prospects, and Challenges Jungsoo Lee, November 1991 The Gender and Poverty Nexus: Issues and Policies M.G. Quibria, November 1993 The Role of the State in Economic Development: Theory, the East Asian Experience, and the Malaysian Case

No. 53

No. 54

No. 55

No. 56

No. 57 No. 58

No. 59 No. 60

Jason Brown, December 1993 The Economic Benefits of Potable Water Supply Projects to Households in Developing Countries Dale Whittington and Venkateswarlu Swarna, January 1994 Growth Triangles: Conceptual Issues and Operational Problems Min Tang and Myo Thant, February 1994 The Emerging Global Trading Environment and Developing Asia Arvind Panagariya, M.G. Quibria, and Narhari Rao, July 1996 Aspects of Urban Water and Sanitation in the Context of Rapid Urbanization in Developing Asia Ernesto M. Pernia and Stella LF. Alabastro, September 1997 Challenges for Asias Trade and Environment Douglas H. Brooks, January 1998 Economic Analysis of Health Sector ProjectsA Review of Issues, Methods, and Approaches Ramesh Adhikari, Paul Gertler, and Anneli Lagman, March 1999 The Asian Crisis: An Alternate View Rajiv Kumar and Bibek Debroy, July 1999 Social Consequences of the Financial Crisis in Asia James C. Knowles, Ernesto M. Pernia, and Mary Racelis, November 1999

OCCASIONAL PAPERS (OP)

No. 1

No. 2

No. 3

No. 4

No. 5 No. 6

No. 7

No. 8

No. 9

No. 10

No. 11

Poverty in the Peoples Republic of China: Recent Developments and Scope for Bank Assistance K.H. Moinuddin, November 1992 The Eastern Islands of Indonesia: An Overview of Development Needs and Potential Brien K. Parkinson, January 1993 Rural Institutional Finance in Bangladesh and Nepal: Review and Agenda for Reforms A.H.M.N. Chowdhury and Marcelia C. Garcia, November 1993 Fiscal Deficits and Current Account Imbalances of the South Pacific Countries: A Case Study of Vanuatu T.K. Jayaraman, December 1993 Reforms in the Transitional Economies of Asia Pradumna B. Rana, December 1993 Environmental Challenges in the Peoples Republic of China and Scope for Bank Assistance Elisabetta Capannelli and Omkar L. Shrestha, December 1993 Sustainable Development Environment and Poverty Nexus K.F. Jalal, December 1993 Intermediate Services and Economic Development: The Malaysian Example Sutanu Behuria and Rahul Khullar, May 1994 Interest Rate Deregulation: A Brief Survey of the Policy Issues and the Asian Experience Carlos J. Glower, July 1994 Some Aspects of Land Administration in Indonesia: Implications for Bank Operations Sutanu Behuria, July 1994 Demographic and Socioeconomic Determinants of Contraceptive Use among Urban Women in the Melanesian Countries in the South Pacific: A Case Study of Port Vila Town in Vanuatu T.K. Jayaraman, February 1995

No. 12

No. 13

No. 14

No. 15

No. 16

No. 17

No. 18 No. 19

No. 20

No. 21

No. 22

Managing Development through Institution Building Hilton L. Root, October 1995 Growth, Structural Change, and Optimal Poverty Interventions Shiladitya Chatterjee, November 1995 Private Investment and Macroeconomic Environment in the South Pacific Island Countries: A Cross-Country Analysis T.K. Jayaraman, October 1996 The Rural-Urban Transition in Viet Nam: Some Selected Issues Sudipto Mundle and Brian Van Arkadie, October 1997 A New Approach to Setting the Future Transport Agenda Roger Allport, Geoff Key, and Charles Melhuish June 1998 Adjustment and Distribution: The Indian Experience Sudipto Mundle and V.B. Tulasidhar, June 1998 Tax Reforms in Viet Nam: A Selective Analysis Sudipto Mundle, December 1998 Surges and Volatility of Private Capital Flows to Asian Developing Countries: Implications for Multilateral Development Banks Pradumna B. Rana, December 1998 The Millennium Round and the Asian Economies: An Introduction Dilip K. Das, October 1999 Occupational Segregation and the Gender Earnings Gap Joseph E. Zveglich, Jr. and Yana van der Meulen Rodgers, December 1999 Information Technology: Next Locomotive of Growth? Dilip K. Das, June 2000

15

STATISTICAL REPORT SERIES (SR)

No. 1 Estimates of the Total External Debt of the Developing Member Countries of ADB: 1981-1983 I.P. David, September 1984 Multivariate Statistical and Graphical Classification Techniques Applied to the Problem of Grouping Countries I.P. David and D.S. Maligalig, March 1985 Gross National Product (GNP) Measurement Issues in South Pacific Developing Member Countries of ADB S.G. Tiwari, September 1985 Estimates of Comparable Savings in Selected DMCs Hananto Sigit, December 1985 Keeping Sample Survey Design and Analysis Simple I.P. David, December 1985 External Debt Situation in Asian Developing Countries I.P. David and Jungsoo Lee, March 1986 Study of GNP Measurement Issues in the South Pacific Developing Member Countries. Part I: Existing National Accounts of SPDMCsAnalysis of Methodology and Application of SNA Concepts P. Hodgkinson, October 1986 Study of GNP Measurement Issues in the South Pacific Developing Member Countries. Part II: Factors Affecting Intercountry Comparability of Per Capita GNP P. Hodgkinson, October 1986 No. 9 Survey of the External Debt Situation in Asian Developing Countries, 1985 Jungsoo Lee and I.P. David, April 1987 A Survey of the External Debt Situation in Asian Developing Countries, 1986 Jungsoo Lee and I.P. David, April 1988 Changing Pattern of Financial Flows to Asian and Pacific Developing Countries Jungsoo Lee and I.P. David, March 1989 The State of Agricultural Statistics in Southeast Asia I.P. David, March 1989 A Survey of the External Debt Situation in Asian and Pacific Developing Countries: 1987-1988 Jungsoo Lee and I.P. David, July 1989 A Survey of the External Debt Situation in Asian and Pacific Developing Countries: 1988-1989 Jungsoo Lee, May 1990 A Survey of the External Debt Situation in Asian and Pacific Developing Countrie s: 1989-1992 Min Tang, June 1991 Recent Trends and Prospects of External Debt Situation and Financial Flows to Asian and Pacific Developing Countries Min Tang and Aludia Pardo, June 1992 Purchasing Power Parity in Asian Developing Countries: A Co-Integration Test Min Tang and Ronald Q. Butiong, April 1994 Capital Flows to Asian and Pacific Developing Countries: Recent Trends and Future Prospects Min Tang and James Villafuerte, October 1995

No. 10

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No. 3

No. 12

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No. 5

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No. 6

No. 15

No. 7

No. 16

No. 8

No. 17

No. 18

SPECIAL STUDIES, COMPLIMENTARY (SSC) (Published in-house; Available through ADB Office of External Relations; Free of Charge)
1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization Through Financial Development: Overview September 1985 Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization Through Financial Development: Bangladesh July 1986 Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization Through Financial Development: Sri Lanka April 1987 Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization Through Financial Development: India December 1987 Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure in Selected Countries: Overview January 1988 Study of Selected Industries: A Brief Report April 1988 Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure in Selected Countries: Bangladesh June 1988 Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure in Selected Countries: India June 1988 Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure in Selected Countries: Indonesia June 1988 Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure in Selected Countries: Nepal June 1988 Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure in Selected Countries: Pakistan June 1988 Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure in Selected Countries: Philippines June 1988 Financing Public Sector Development Expenditure in Selected Countries: Thailand June 1988 Towards Regional Cooperation in South Asia: ADB/EWC Symposium on Regional Cooperation in South Asia February 1988 Evaluating Rice Market Intervention Policies: Some Asian Examples April 1988 Improving Domestic Resource Mobilization Through Financial Development: Nepal November 1988 Foreign Trade Barriers and Export Growth September 1988 18. The Role of Small and Medium-Scale Industries in the Industrial Development of the Philippines April 1989 19. The Role of Small and Medium-Scale Manufacturing Industries in Industrial Development: The Experience of Selected Asian Countries January 1990 20. National Accounts of Vanuatu, 1983-1987 January 1990 21. National Accounts of Western Samoa, 1984-1986 February 1990 22. Human Resource Policy and Economic Development: Selected Country Studies July 1990 23. Export Finance: Some Asian Examples September 1990 24. National Accounts of the Cook Islands, 1982-1986 September 1990 25. Framework for the Economic and Financial Appraisal of Urban Development Sector Projects January 1994 26. Framework and Criteria for the Appraisal and Socioeconomic Justification of Education Projects January 1994 27. Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Projects February 1997 28. Investing in Asia 1997 29. Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Telecommunication Projects 1998 30. Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Water Supply Projects 1999

15. 16. 17.

16

SPECIAL STUDIES, ADB (SS, ADB) (Published in-house; Available commercially through ADB Office of External Relations)
1. Rural Poverty in Developing Asia Edited by M.G. Quibria Vol. 1: Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka, 1994 $35.00 (paperback) Vol. 2: Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Philippines, and Thailand, 1996 $35.00 (paperback) External Shocks and Policy Adjustments: Lessons from the Gulf Crisis Edited by Naved Hamid and Shahid N. Zahid, 1995 $15.00 (paperback) Gender Indicators of Developing Asian and Pacific Countries Asian Development Bank, 1993 $25.00 (paperback) Urban Poverty in Asia: A Survey of Critical Issues Edited by Ernesto Pernia, 1994 $20.00 (paperback) Indonesia-Malaysia-Thailand Growth Triangle: Theory to Practice Edited by Myo Thant and Min Tang, 1996 $15.00 (paperback) Emerging Asia: Changes and Challenges Asian Development Bank, 1997 $30.00 (paperback) Asian Exports Edited by Dilip Das, 1999 $35.00 (paperback) $55.00 (hardbound) Mortgage-Backed Securities Markets in Asia Edited by S.Ghon Rhee & Yutaka Shimomoto, 1999 $35.00 (paperback) 9. Corporate Governance and Finance in East Asia: A Study of Indonesia, Republic of Korea, Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand J. Zhuang, David Edwards, D. Webb, & Ma. Virginita Capulong Vol. 1, 2000 $10.00 (paperback) Vol. 2, 2001 $15.00 (paperback) 10. Financial Management and Governance Issues Asian Development Bank, 2000 Cambodia $10.00 (paperback) Peoples Republic of China $10.00 (paperback) Mongolia $10.00 (paperback) Pakistan $10.00 (paperback) Papua New Guinea $10.00 (paperback) Uzbekistan $10.00 (paperback) Viet Nam $10.00 (paperback) Selected Developing Member Countries $10.00 (paperback) 11. Guidelines for the Economic Analysis of Projects Asian Development Bank, 1997 $10.00 (paperback) 12. Handbook for the Economic Analysis of Water Supply Projects Asian Development Bank, 1999 $15.00 (hardbound) 13. Handbook for the Economic Analysis of Health Sector Projects Asian Development Bank, 2000 $10.00 (paperback)

2.

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

8.

SPECIAL STUDIES, OUP (SS,OUP) (Co-published with Oxford University Press; Available commercially through Oxford University Press Offices, Associated Companies, and Agents)

1.

2.

3.

4.

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7.

Informal Finance: Some Findings from Asia Prabhu Ghate et. al., 1992 $15.00 (paperback) Mongolia: A Centrally Planned Economy in Transition Asian Development Bank, 1992 $15.00 (paperback) Rural Poverty in Asia, Priority Issues and Policy Options Edited by M.G. Quibria, 1994 $25.00 (paperback) Growth Triangles in Asia: A New Approach to Regional Economic Cooperation Edited by Myo Thant, Min Tang, and Hiroshi Kakazu 1st ed., 1994 $36.00 (hardbound) Revised ed., 1998 $55.00 (hardbound) Urban Poverty in Asia: A Survey of Critical Issues Edited by Ernesto Pernia, 1994 $18.00 (paperback) Critical Issues in Asian Development: Theories, Experiences, and Policies Edited by M.G. Quibria, 1995 $15.00 (paperback) $36.00 (hardbound) From Centrally Planned to Market Economies: The Asian Approach Edited by Pradumna B. Rana and Naved Hamid, 1995 Vol. 1: Overview $36.00 (hardbound) Vol. 2: Peoples Republic of China and Mongolia $50.00 (hardbound)

8.

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Vol. 3: Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Viet Nam $50.00 (hardbound) Financial Sector Development in Asia Edited by Shahid N. Zahid, 1995 $50.00 (hardbound) Financial Sector Development in Asia: Country Studies Edited by Shahid N. Zahid, 1995 $55.00 (hardbound) Fiscal Management and Economic Reform in the Peoples Republic of China Christine P.W. Wong, Christopher Heady, and Wing T. Woo, 1995 $15.00 (paperback) Current Issues in Economic Development: An Asian Perspective Edited by M.G. Quibria and J. Malcolm Dowling, 1996 $50.00 (hardbound) The Bangladesh Economy in Transition Edited by M.G. Quibria, 1997 $20.00 (hardbound) The Global Trading System and Developing Asia Edited by Arvind Panagariya, M.G. Quibria, and Narhari Rao, 1997 $55.00 (hardbound) Rising to the Challenge in Asia: A Study of Financial Markets Asian Development Bank, 1999 Vol. 1 $20.00 (paperback) Vol. 2 $15.00 (paperback) Vol. 3 $25.00 (paperback) Vols. 4-12 $20.00 (paperback)

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SERIALS (Co-published with Oxford University Press; Available commercially through Oxford University Press Offices, Associated Companies, and Agents)
1. Asian Development Outlook (ADO; annual) $36.00 (paperback) Key Indicators of Developing Asian and Pacific Countries (KI; annual) $35.00 (paperback)

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JOURNAL (Published in-house; Available commercially through ADB Office of External Relations)
1. Asian Development Review (ADR; semiannual) $5.00 per issue; $8.00 per year (2 issues)

18