MO1

MO2 MO3

Module Outcomes: Identify basic mathematical concepts, skills and mathematical techniques for algebra, calculus and data handling. Apply the mathematical calculations, formulas, statistical methods and calculus techniques for problem solving in industry. Analyse calculus and statistical problems in industry.

LEARNING OUTCOMES
At the end of this chapter, student should be able to : understand the concepts of experiments, outcomes, sample spaces and events define probability understand basic laws of probability calculate the probabilities using the rules of probability. develop contingency table and use a tree diagram to organize probabilities

Definition of Probability Probability is a measure of how high is the possibility for an event to occur.

Basic concepts in Probability

Definition An experiment is a situation involving chance or probability that leads to results called outcomes. An outcome is the result of a single trial of an experiment. A sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of the experiment Notation of Sample Space : S Number of Sample Space : n(S) An event is one or more outcomes of an experiment. One event of this experiment is no. 1. Example Toss a fair dice.

The possible outcomes are no. 1,2,3,4, 5 and 6.

S = {1,2,3,4,5,6} n(S) = 6

Examples of experiments and their possible associated outcomes and sample spaces:
Experiment
Flip two coins Role a dice Play a game

Outcomes
HH, HT, TH, TT 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Sample space
S = {HH,HT,TH,TT} S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

Win (W), Lose (L), Draw (D) S = {Win (W), Lose (L), Draw (D)}

HOW TO FIND OUT THE SAMPLE SPACE/ NUMBER OF SAMPLE SPACE

LIST

VENN DIAGRAM

Techniques

TABLE

TREE DIAGRAM

VENN DIAGRAM FOR

VENN DIAGRAM FOR

VENN DIAGRAM FOR =

Definition of Classical Probability

Suppose S is a sample space and each outcome in S is equally likely to occur. If A is an event (a subset of S) then the probability of A is:

= =

Example 1
A card is drawn from a pack of 52 cards randomly. Find

the probability that:

It is a four card It is a black card

Solution
Let F : the event of getting a four card

B : the event of getting a black card n(F) = 4, n(B) = 26, n(S) = 52

=
() 4 1 = = () 52 13 () 26 1 = = () 52 2

Basic probability rules:

The range of values of a probability is 0 () 1. If = 1, event A is sure to occur If P (A) = 0, event A will not occur

() = 1. If A is the complement of A, then P(A) = 1 P(A)

For n mutually exclusive events
The complement of an event A, is a sample space S,

consist of all outcomes of S which are not the outcomes of A.

CONTINUE

Example 2
There are red and blue balls in a bag. If the probability

of choosing red ball is getting blue balls?

2 , 5

what is the probability of

Solution
Let : the event of getting blue ball
: the event of not getting blue ball

= 1 ( )
=1

3 4

2 5

COMPOSITE EVENTS
For any two events A and B, the probability of either

event A or B happening is denoted ( ), where

= + ( ) ( ) represents the probability of both events A

and B happening together. If A and B are mutually exclusive events, then = . This implies that if A and B are mutually exclusive events, then = 0.

Example 3
Probability X and Y are such that:
=
3 , 8

= and =

1 4

1 . 2

Find ( ).

Solution
= +
1 2

= +
1 8

3 8

1 4

Example 4
If A and B are two events and P(A) = 0.6, P(B) = 0.3

and = 0.8 find

( ) b. c. ( )
a.

Solution
a. = + 0.8 = 0.6 + 0.3 = 0.1 From the Venn diagram:

0.5

0.1

0.2

o.2

Solution
b. = 0.5 c. = 0.2 + 0.2 = 0.4

Example 5
The given table shows the number of male and female

students in a class who wear glasses. If the student is chosen at random from that class, calculate the probability that a female student or a student who wears glasses is chosen.
Wear glasses Male 5 Do not wear glasses 10

Female

11

SOLUTION
Let

M: event for male students

F : event for female students WG : event for students who wear glasses DWG : event for students who do not wear glasses Question : probability for female student or a student who wears glasses. From the table: n(M) = 15, n(F) = 20, n(WG) = 14, n(DWG) = 21, n(S) = 35 Thus, = + = + 20 14 9 = + 35 35 35 25 5 = = 35 7

Mutually exclusive events

Two events are said to be mutually exclusive if they

cannot occur at the same time.

1 3 5 A

2 4 6

CONTINUE
If A and B are mutually excluxive events, then

= + = 0

INDEPENDENT AND CONDITIONAL EVENTS

INDEPENDENT EVENT : the outcomes of an

experiments of event A do not influence the outcomes of event B = () ()