EAST AFRICA RIFT SYSTEM, SEISMIC ACTIVITY, GROUND DEFORMATION AND TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN KENYA COAST.

By Odhiambo Amollo Joseph Kenya Meteorological Department P.O Box 98512 (80100) Mombasa- Kenya E-mail: famollo@yahoo.com
ABSTRACT Kenya is crossed by the East African Rift System at the central region. The East African Rift is seismically and volcanically active and this has resulted to ground deformation within the Rift System. The western branch of the EARS has undergone some subsidence due to greater seismic activities while the eastern branch has undergone some form of uplift as a result of greater volcanic activities which has led to the formation of deeper lakes and high mountains on the Western and Eastern branch respectively. Tsunami hazard assessment has shown that the Kenyan coast is vulnerable to tsunamis that are generated in Indian/pacific oceans. Near/far field tsunami simulations have shown that the region can experience tsunami wave heights of up to 2 m high and inundation extent is greatest in the unprotected areas and can reach about 500 m inland. This study aims at understanding the rifting and deformation processes within the EARS due to seismic and magmatic activities and also to map out and delineate Kenya coastal tsunami impact areas in order to put up defensive measures to the disasters that might be caused by the possible Earthquakes and Tsunamis in this region. 1.0. INTRODUCTION
Extensional regions are commonly associated with low level of seismic strain release and earthquakes of relatively small magnitude (Scholz, 2002). In a synoptic assessment of global riftrelated seismicity and magmatism, Parsons and Thompson (1991) showed that magmatic rift zones in particular are characterized by low levels of seismicity. They explained the phenomenon of suppressed faulting by stress equalization due to a buildup of magma pressure counteracting tectonic stress. In such a scenario, rift extension is thought to be accomplished by a combination of magmatic dyke intrusion and active normal faulting, accompanied by small but frequent earthquakes. In the East Africa Rift, differences in seismicity between magmatically active versus inactive areas are well documented (Maguire et al., 1988). The Kenya rift in the eastern branch of the rift system is one of the most volumetrically important magmatic extensional areas on Earth (Latin et al., 1993; MacDonald et al., 1994). Kenya rift is characterized by basaltic and rhyolitic volcanism and pronounced hydrothermal activity along the tectonically active rift axis attesting to the significant thermal deformation of physical properties of the crust (MacDonald et al., 1994).

Fairhead and Girdler (1971) suggested that

thermal overprinting by upwarped asthenosphere lowers the crustal tensile strength in this region, thus decreasing the level of seismically released strain. Thinning of the crust also reduces the potential downdip rupture width, therefore reducing the seismogenic potential of any fault. In contrast with the magmatically active Kenya rift, higher seismicity levels with historical magnitudes as large as M 7.4 characterize the virtually less volcanic western branch of the East African Rift and the Tanzania rift zone (Shudofsky, 1985, Ambraseys 1991; parsons and Thompson 1991 and Girdler and McConnel 1994. Amongst these are the recent M 6.8 Kalemie earthquake (2005), M 7.0 Machaze earthquake (2006), and M 6.0 Cyangugu earthquake (2008). The Kenyan rift system can best be considered in two parts, the division being at the Kenya-Tanzania

border approximately north and south of 2S. In central and southern Kenya, the Rift Valley is about 60 km wide and about 1 km deep. The rift walls are normal faults with many offsets. Within the Kenya rift, there is some microseismicity associated with the rift floor. The lack of large magnitude events and the presence of microseismic activity along the rift may suggest that stress release is at a lower level and it is also possible that the strain may be slowly accumulating along this part of the rift. In contrast to the Kenya rift, there have been many earthquakes associated with the rifting in Northern Tanzania where the rift fans out into a series of east facing fault scarps. The high level of seismic activities in the northern Tanzania is related to the fault and is concentrated along the main fault structure.

Figure1a, b: Seismicity of the East Africa Rift System 1.1. TECTONICS OF THE EAST AFRICAN RIFT SYSTEM. Major tectonic features in the eastern and southern African region are mainly controlled by the well-known geological structure, the East African rift system. It extends almost 3,000 miles (4,830 kilometers) from northern Syria down the
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Eastern side of the African Continent to

central Mozambique. Further to the South a series of rifts occur which include a Western branch, the Lake Albert Rift or Albertine Rift which contains the East African Great Lakes, and an Eastern branch that roughly bisects Kenya north-to-south on a line slightly west of Nairobi.

The two EAR branches are often grouped with the Ethiopian Rift to form the East Africa Rift System (EARS). In addition there are several well-defined but definitely smaller structures, called grabens that have rift-like character and are clearly associated geologically with

the major rifts. Some of these have been given names such as the Nyanza (Kavirondo) Rift in Western Kenya near Lake Victoria. Most of earthquakes occur on either the western or eastern branch of the East Africa Rift and the mechanisms are all normal or strike-slip.

Fig. 2: The location and orientation of the Eastern & western branch of EARS and the focal mechanisms.
South of Ethiopia, the East Africa rift system breaks up into two branches, the Western rift and the Eastern rift. Continental rifting starts from the Afar triple junction and continues towards the south through the Ethiopian rift, joining into the Gregory rift in Kenya. This structure constitutes the eastern branch of the East Africa rift system. Further south, it branches into the Davie Ridge (Mougenot et al., 1986). The northern sector of this rift segment cuts across the abyssal plateau volcanic of Kenya. In eastern Tanzania, the rift structures form a broad zone of faults defining a series of tilted blocks with varying orientations. Southeast of Mount Kilimanjaro, the PareUsambara faults define a branch of the eastern rift which trends SE to join the fault systems of the Davie Ridge in the Indian Ocean. The western branch of the East Africa rift system extends from northern Uganda to southern Mozambique, encompassing the major lakes in the region such as the lakes Albert, Edward, Tanganyika and Malawi. In the south, the main features of the rift in the Malawi-Mozambique segment are border faults defining Lake Malawi.

1.2. MECHANISM OF THE EAST AFRICA RIFT FORMATION

One popular model for the EARS assumes that elevated heat flow from the mantle (strictly the asthenosphere) is causing a pair of thermal bulges in central Kenya and the Afar region of north-central Ethiopia. These bulges can be easily seen as elevated highlands on any

topographic map of the area. As these bulges form, they stretch and fracture the outer brittle crust into a series of normal faults forming the

classic horst and graben structure of Rift Valley.

Figure 3: Map of Africa showing in blue levels the elevations higher than 1200 m, evidence of the main Ethiopian and KenyanTanzanian domes ( J. Chorowicz / Journal of African Earth Sciences 43 (2005) 379 410).And the formation of horst and grabens in the rift valley.

2.0. EVALUATION OF SEISMIC RISKS

The seismic activities in East Africa rift and the Kenya rift are concentrated along the Eastern and Western branch of the East Africa Rift System. Seismicity of the Kenya rift valley of the East Africas areas of active tectonics has been dominated by earthquakes of low to intermediate magnitudes originating along the two branches of the rift system. Past studies have revealed that the region has a relatively high activities and a stable recurrence relation of log (N) = a b (Ms), where N is the number of events of magnitude equal to or greater than Ms per annum. Kenya rift system is thus capable of producing a regular pattern of earthquakes including an event of magnitude 6.9 associated with surface faulting in January 6, 1928 in Subukia. There is also evidence that smaller potentially damaging earthquakes have occurred in the past years.

Fig. 4: Subukia earthquake location & seismicity distribution along the Kenya rift Valley and Nyanza trough (1910-1990).

The seismicity of the EARS was analyzed using data from various catalogues which included: USGS for the period 1973 to 2009, ISS/ISC and Seis-PC data for the historical period from 1900 to 2006. Seismic activity was greatest during the period after 1960. There occurred significant seismic activity in the first half of the twentieth century in both the Western and Eastern branch of EARS (Gutenburg and Ritcher, 1954). Much of the damage in earthquakes can be attributed to the behavior of the soils during earthquakes. Large settlements and differential settlements caused by compaction of loose soil, settlement and tilting of structures due to liquefaction of saturated granular soil, lateral movements of natural slopes have been observed during earthquakes. All these types of behavior are influenced by the intensity of earthquake shaking. Thus a determination of seismic risk for a particular facility must include an evaluation of the earthquake ground motions that are likely to be induced by future earthquakes at the site. The Subukia 1928 earthquake didnt cause
An important first step in a seismic hazard evaluation is the compilation and documentation of the historical seismicity record of the region. As more instruments are placed in more areas of the East African Rift System, the usefulness of such record will continue to increase in future seismic hazard evaluations.

extensive damage due to the sparse settlement, the mud structures were also anti-earthquake and also during this event, the water table was too low to cause liquefaction. In order to carry out seismic assessment in Kenya, the University of Nairobi has had a seismological network since 1963 as part of the World Wide Standardized Seismic Network (WWSSN). Later in the 1995 five digital mobile stations were installed in Kenya. Recently the International Monitoring System (IMS) has installed a primary seismic station (PS24) in Kilimambogo, Kenya and the construction of an infrasound station (IS32) is underway to monitor Earthquakes in East Africa as well as major events world-wide. To monitor the local seismicity, UoN installed Seismic stations in various parts of the country in collaboration with University of Karlsruhe (Germany, GTZ). Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) had never operated any Real-time Seismic Station to monitor earthquakes, Tsunamis, Volcano eruptions prior to the 26 December 2004 Tsunami.

Major historical seismic activity in EARS

(1906-1960)

Fig. 5 b &c: Showing the major seismic activities in the western and eastern branches of the East
African Rift System since 1900 respectively. Western branch is more seismically active.

2.1. B-VALUE ESTIMATION The b-value of the recurrence relation for Kenya Rift has been derived by several Scientists and their values have been in the range of: (Ndontoni 1976; b =0.81), Shah (1986; b =1.29), and other values given by Fairhead & Stuart (1982; 0.80 b 1.35). The seismicity of a seismogenic zone is quantified in terms of the frequencymagnitude relationship. This relationship is a key element in estimating the probability
EAST & SOUTHERN AFRICA B-VALUE 1973-2009 (MAG 4.5-7.2
3.5 3 2.5
LOG N

that a magnitude M earthquake will occur in a certain seismogenic zone within a predefined time interval. Fortunately in Kenya there are many small earthquakes than large ones. The figures below show the frequency of earthquakes as a function of their magnitudes for Kenya and Eastern and South Africa region during the period 1973-2009. The distribution may be fitted with log N = a b (Ms) where N is the number of earthquakes whose magnitude is greater than Ms.
b - Value KENYA 1973 - 2009
2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2
LOGN

f(x) = -1.05x + 7.68

f(x) = -0.79x + 5.12

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5

1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5

EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE

MAGNITUDE

Figure 6a & b: b- Value estimate for the seismic activities in the East Africa Rift Systems.

While the a-value is a measure of earthquake productivity, the b- value is indicative of the ratio between large and small earthquakes. Both a, and b-value are therefore important parameters in earthquake hazard analysis. Usually b is close to unity. In calculating the b value of the recurrence period for the Kenya and East Africa rift systems earthquakes, a value of b = 0.79 and 1.05 were obtained. The result for Kenya signifies that there are many smaller earthquakes than larger ones 30. THE MOVEMENT OF THE EAST AFRICA RIFT SYSTEM Although the East African Rift (EAR) is often cited as a modern archetype for rifting and continental breakup, it remains the least understood of all major plate boundaries. In particular, the rate of plate divergence across it, how this divergence is accommodated within the rift, and how the rift connects farther south with the Southwest Indian Ridge (SWIR) remain to be determined.

and this make the ratio to be less than unity. In the entire Eastern and Southern region, the distribution of the small and large magnitude earthquakes is almost equal and the ratio is slightly above unity. Smaller and intermediate earthquakes will still dominate the Kenyan rift region and their frequencies and damage potential will contribute to the deformation which has been majorly as a result of the infrequent and irregular pattern of large earthquakes.

The study involved the use of the direction of earthquake slip vectors from the focal mechanisms determined from body- wave form and based on the structural frame work of the epicentral region. The earthquake slip vectors along the Ethiopian rift were assigned to the Nubian-Somalia plate boundary while the slip vectors along Eastern and Western branches were assigned to Nubian-Victoria and VictoriaSomalia respectively.

Figures 7a, b: The Earthquake slip vectors and relative motions along plate or block boundaries are shown in red arrows and numbers are model velocities in mm.y-1. Relative rotation poles are shown with black stars. The first plate rotates counter-clockwise with respect to the second except for VI-NU where Victoria rotates clockwise with respect to Nubia (D. Stamps et al., 2008.)

Information needed to solve this problem is sparse, but Stamps et al. found that geological data covering the past 3.2 million years along the SWIR (South West Indian Ridge) are consistent with current geodetic data in East Africa. The first complete kinematic model for the EAR show that the data are consistent with the existence of three sub plates embedded within the rift, Victoria, Rovuma and Lwandle. The plate angular velocity found in the model, predicts opening at the rate of 1 to 4 mm. y-1 across the Western and Eastern rifts, increasing from North to South for the Western rift and from South to North for the Eastern rift. This correlates with the age of rifting initiation (from 1215 Ma to 8 Ma from North to south along the Western rift and 5 Ma to present for the Eastern rift (Ebinger, 1989), Consistent with a propagation process. The southward

decrease of the extension rate along the Eastern branch is consistent with the progressive disappearance of prominent active faults as the Eastern branch propagates into cold cratonic domains (stable/rigid and immobile part of the continent having survived cycles of merging and rifting). The above model predicts a very small motion rate (less than 0.1 mm. y-1) at the Victoria and Rovuma boundary (a result of their opposite sense of rotation with respect to Nubia), (Le Gall et al., 2004). The model predicts extension across Malawi rift rates as decreasing from 4.5 mm. y-1 in the north to 1.5 mm. y-1 at the Latitude of southern Mozambique coastal plain. Predicted motions along EAR structures are quantitatively consistent with seismicity and active faulting with extension directions approximately EW but varying spatially as a function of the plates involved.

4.0. VOLCANIC ACTIVITIES

Volcanism occurs in continental areas that are undergoing episodes of extensional deformation. A classic example is the East African Rift Valley, where the African plate is being split. The extensional deformation occurs because the underlying mantle is rising from below and stretching the overlying continental crust. Upwelling mantle may melt to produce magmas, which then rise to the surface, often along normal faults produced by the extensional deformation. Basaltic and rhyolitic volcanism is common in the Kenya rift areas. Rift volcanoes attest to the presence of magma reservoirs within the crust and the magma chemistry provides insights into

magma sources and storage depths. Petrologic studies in East African Rift System documents the importance of magma chamber recharge, magma mixing and volatile transport that accompany
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dyking and eruption events (EspejelGarcia et el., 2008; Macdonald et el., 2008). Basaltic dyke intrusions reheats or recharge existing magma chambers lying near or within the paths of dykes provoking earthquakes, eruptions and or degassing (Wright et al., 2006; Baer et al., 2008; Keir., 2009). The passage of magma through the crust is often marked by low magnitude earthquakes just like the case of EARS and is rarely detected on global arrays (Rubin and Gillard, 1998, Keir et al., 2009). Radar interferometric measurements of surface displacement provide a versatile means to evaluate spatial and temporal magma recharge. Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) is a satellite based method used to compare the phase of radar images taken at different times to detect

small (<1 cm) surface displacements at high resolution (<90m). InSAR was used to study volcano geodesy along the Kenya section of the East African Rift. Four of the
eleven central rift volcanoes for which a coherent signal could be observed showed signs of inflation or deflation over the period 1997-2008: Paka, Menengai, Longonot, and Suswa. It is reported that at each volcano, the surface deformation occurred as a discrete pulse of duration less than one year (J. Biggs, E.

Anthony, and C. J. Ebinger., 2008). Suswa, Longonot and Menengai volcanoes are located in densely populated areas within 100 km of Nairobi. It is important to understand the time and length scale for the rise and storage of magma within continental rift zone as a baseline for future hazard mitigation programs. From a human perspective, geodetic monitoring of volcanoes are crucial to volcanic hazard studies in a heavily populated area and to the exploitation of geothermal resources in Kenya (Tole, 1996; Mariita, 2002).

4.1. DISTRIBUTION OF VOLCANOES IN RELATION TO PLATE BOUNDARY AND RIFT SYSTEM.

The presence or absence of magma exerts a fundamental control on the distribution of strain on the continental rift zones (white and McKenzie, 1989; Buck 2004). Within the mantle, melt generation extracts incompatible elements, dehydrating and strengthening the mantle. Magma intrusion controls shallow brittle deformation processes by altering the thermal and mechanical structure of the lithosphere (Buck, 2004). Some of the magma rises efficiently to shallow or surface level in the form of dykes and some is trapped within

the plate in the form of sills and multiply replenished magma chambers. Hence knowledge of the distribution and volume of melt intruded or extruded throughout the evolution of continental rifts is fundamental to the development of predictive models of rifting processes. Volcanic activity in the rift valleys is important in several different ways to both geolology and archeology. First, the rocks such as rhyolite and basalt and also ashes are important for correlation and dating the deposits and archeological sites in the rift valley. An example of recent volcanic eruption in East Africa is Ol Doinyo Lengai in 2008.

Ol Doinyo Lengai crater and recent lava flow 2007

Eruption of Ol Doinyo Lengai-Tanzania in 1966

Fig 8a: Eastern branch is more magmatically active than western branch.

Figure 8b: Distributions of Volcanoes in Kenya Rift System

Inflation of deeper magmatic sources cause dilatation of overlying rocks, opening new and self sealed fractures, increasing permeability, and decreasing pore pressure (Wicks et al., 1998; Chang et al., 2007). Thus short duration episodes of deformation such as those reported above are likely to be driven by volume changes in the magmatic system and amplified by the response of shallower hydrothermal system.

Figure 9: The uplift and subsidence of some volcanoes in East Africa Rift System due to the active Magma Systems in the East African Rift (Juliet Biggs 2008).

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Although seismicity levels in the Eastern rift are comparatively low, multiple ground rupture earthquakes have occurred in the region (Zielk and Strecker, 2009). Volcano hazard analyses require deformation, seismicity and gas monitoring both on and off volcanic edifices and determination of how pulses of activities are distributed in

distinguish between magmatic and hydrothermal induced deformation and continuous monitoring is required to constrain the duration of individual episodes. The other

time. Seismicity and gas surveys can 4.2. OBSERVATIONS REPORTED FROM THE VOLCANO MODELS.

volcanoes of Kenya rift that show no geodetic activity may simply be between episodes: along period of observation is required to judge their level of activity (Baer et al., 2008; N. d Oreye, 2009).

The depth of deformation sources at Suswa, Paka and Longonot (2- 4.5 km) is close to the boundary between magmatic and hydrothermal systems. Seismicity occurs in swarms, and tremor and low frequency events indicate the attenuating effects of one or more fluid phases. Longonot and Suswa volcanoes show narrow negative anomalies superposed on broader positive anomalies corresponding to the edifices consistent with shallow low density chamber. The observations reported in this study demonstrate the presence of active magmatic systems beneath Suswa, Longonot, Menengai and Paka volcanoes. In many settings, volcanic uplift is unambiguously associated with magma intrusion in the shallow crust. However

recent observations at calderas like Long Valley, Yellowstone and CampiFlegrei, document subsidence not associated with eruption and CO2 emission levels too high to be explained by magmatic pulses. Surface displacements may be the result of the migration of hydrothermal rather than magmatic fluids (Wicks et al., 1998; Chang et al., 2007; Hutnak et al., 2009). Differentiation between magmatic intrusion and thermal expansion or pressurization of a caldera is clearly fundamental to the development of predictive models for volcanic eruptions and in evaluation of seismic and volcanic risks (Battaglia et al., 2002). This may not have been the case of the 1914 eruption at Sakurajima in Japan where the prediction might not have been based on models.

5.0. TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN KENYA COAST. 5.1 NUMERICAL SIMULATION

The extent of Kenya coastline is about 600 km and allows the country to play a major role in transport and communication along the East & southeast African continent due to the natural harbors along the coast zone. The location of the Kenya coastline in relation to Indian Ocean makes the region vulnerable to tsunamis that are generated within the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. This vulnerability was realized during the December 2004 tsunami which caused destructions to the coastal infrastructure and loss to human life. The record at Lamu port which was the first location at the Kenyan coast to be hit by tsunami wave showed a run up of about 0.4 meters. This run up height was as a result of the reduced wave energy as it passed Seychelles Island. Archipelagos such as Seychelles or Mauritius significantly interact with tsunami by reducing its energy and consequently the wave height. Tsunamis having passed such natural obstacles as Islands are characterized by weak force and therefore

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its impact on the coast is slight or in some cases the wave completely disappears. This was evident in the eastern coast of Africa (at Lamu and Zanzibar) where the 2004 tsunami wave completely stopped. The tsunami waves were higher in more distant ports where the waves had easier access from the open ocean. For example Port Elizabeth noted +2.73m rise, East London +1.35m, Cape Town +0.96m , even Halifax in the North Atlantic recorded a noticeable change of 0.43m despite the fact that it is situated further than Lamu port ( 21317km compared to Lamu which is 6128 km) from the

2004 tsunami source region (B.Wisniewski, P.Wolski 2008). It is necessary to carry out tsunami hazard assessment in the coastal area of Kenya to understand the risk that the coastal region, population and infrastructure are likely to face. The understanding is of great help in developing appropriate hazard mitigation strategies. For this study, 3 tide gauges stations (Wasini Island, Kilindini-Mombasa, and Lamu) were used as output points of tsunami simulation, along the coast of Kenya for the 2004 Sumatra source region.

Figures 10a, b: Some of the tide stations in triangles used as tsunami output points, Wasini tide station which measures all marine parameters and transmit data to Meteorological headquarters.

5.2. SIMULATION RESULTS OF SUMATRA EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE 9.1 The computation region is from 36E to 100E and from -20S to 25N with grid points of 1921 and 1351 along the longitude and latitude respectively. The integration time step t is 5.0 s while computation time is 10 hours, the number of time steps is 7200. The results obtained from the modelling shows that the Northern coastal region of Kenya could be at a higher risk than the Southern most parts. The software used in this simulation was developed by Nakamura of Ryuku University. For the display of the modelling results, Tsunami display program developed by Doung was used.

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The results from the simulation show that the area around Wasini Island realized the lowest wave height of 0.24 m while the observations at Mombasa and Lamu were 0.5 m and 0.92 m respectively. The Somalia coast realized higher wave height of up to around 5m.The results realized in this modeling of Sumatra source region could be attributed to the effect of Islands and archipelagos on the path of the wave as they travelled to impact points and the long distance between the source region and East African coast. The Seychelles Island

reduced the wave energy and also refracted the waves to the northern part of the East African coast towards Somalia. Most of the East Africa coastal regions are likely to be relatively safe from future tsunamis generated from far field source regions due to energy dissipation as the waves travel the long distance. But larger earthquakes are possible in these tectonically active regions in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. These could lead to a magnification of run-up heights as the waves strike the East African coast.

Maximum tsunami wave height plotted against distance travelled across Indian Ocean for the 2004 Sumatra source region. The heights of the waves decreased exponentially with distance (D. Obura 2006)

Sumatra 2004 Magnitude 9.1 Earthquake Fault parameters. FAULT PARAMETERS DIMENSIONS/MEASUREMENTS Length of Fault plane (km) 1100 Width of Fault plane (km) 175 Strike angle (degree 340 Dip angle (degree) 15 Slip 10 Maximum dislocation (m) 11 Location 05N, 92.5E Depth (km) 28.6 Moment 4.0*1022 NM Table 1: Source USGS http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/sopar/
& Nakamura fault parameters.

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The following figures (12-17) show the results of the Sumatra Earthquake source region simulation:

Figure 12: Initial and final stages of Sumatra source region simulation.

Figure 13: Wave propagation from the Sumatra Source region Simulation.

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Figure 14: Bathymetric and topographic data of the simulation region.

Figure 15: Tsunami travel time map for Sumatra source region in time steps of 30 minutes and 1 hour.

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Figure 16: Wave heights at observation points (tide gauge stations) for the Sumatra source region.

Figure 17: Distribution of computed maximum tsunami heights along the East African coast. 5.3. CORRELATION BETWEEN INUNDATION AND RUN-UP
Inundation of the coastal region was determined through the analysis of the simulation results of the Sumatra 2004 earthquake magnitude 9.1 as recorded in the following table 1. In order to arrive at the results, the following formula from Dr. Nakamura was adopted;

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Xmax (inundation) = (Hmax)1.33 n-2 k where: Xmax is maximum inundation in meters Hmax is maximum tsunami height at observation point K is a constant (0.06 for most tsunami waves) n is a constant and different for various scenarios considered (0.015 for flat areas, 0.03 for areas dominated by buildings and 0.07 for forested areas ).

STATION

LONGITUDE

LATITUDE

WASINI MOMBASA LAMU SOMALI A SOMALI B

39.52 40.15 41.18 45.41 46.76

-4.75 -3.59 -2.15 1.98 3.11

ARRIVAL TIME (Min.) 560 550 500 480 480

HEIGHT IN METERS 0.24 0.52 0.92 1.12 5.06

INUNDATION IN FLAT AREA (M) 39.96 111.75 238.67 310.05 2304.03

INUNDATION HIGH GROUND (M) 9.99 27.94 59.67 77.51 576.01

Table 2: run-up height and inundation level.

INUNDATION AND RUN-UP HEIGHT

6.00
INUNDATION LEVEL (M)

RUN-UP HEIGHT AND INUNDATION

2500.0 2000.0 1500.0 1000.0 500.0 0.0 0.00

5.00
RUN-UP HEIGHT (M)

4.00 3.00 2.00 1.00 0.00 0.0 500.0 1000.0 1500.0 2000.0 2500.0

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

INUNDATION EXTENT (M)

RUN-UP HEIGHT (M)

The figures above show the direct relationship between inundation extent and run-up level along the Kenyan coast. Severe inundation and run-up heights may affect the coastal topography by transporting offshore sediments on to the beach and redistributing the

sediments within the beach. Shuto (2001)

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observed similar conditions along the Japanese coast where tsunamis have caused severe erosion and have altered the coastal topography in many locations. Narayana et al. (2005) studied the nature of sedimentation induced by tsunami along

the Kerala coast of India and found that tsunami surge had transported and redistributed black sands (heavy minerals) from the continental shelf to the coast. It has therefore been demonstrated that tsunamis have the potential to transport, redistribute and deposit sediments far into the inland areas. The low-lying coasts like the Kenyan coast are the prime victims of tsunami surge as they are unable to put up any resistance against accelerating tsunami 7.0. Conclusions.
The East African Rift System especially the Eastern branch that bisect Kenya almost northsouth is dominated by smaller and intermediate earthquakes which have contributed to the ground deformation within the rift system. The trend of the seismic activities in the region is increasing and therefore requires a continuous monitoring so as to be able to detect and assess the impending dangers that this might cause to the existing infrastructure and economic activities within the region. This requires the establishment of a dense network of seismic stations to record the earthquake activities. Research has also shown that the volcanoes within the Rift System are active. Some of these volcanoes are located near the cities within and around the Rift System and in

waves. The results of a tsunami inundation

study include information about the maximum wave height and maximum current speed as a function of location, maximum inundation line, as well as time series of wave height at different locations indicating wave arrival time. This information can be used by emergency managers and urban planners primarily to establish evacuation routes and location of vital infrastructure. In addition it can be used to

understand and delineate the impact of tsunami on coastal areas.

the event of eruptions, the existing structures can be destroyed by lava flow and volcanic ash. There is therefore a need to monitor the activity of Volcanoes such Menengai, Suswa, Paka, and Longonot through InSAR to detect and determine the temporal and spatial magma migration or movement. Due to the vulnerability of the coastal region to Tsunamis, coastal protection through the construction of sea walls and also vegetation conservation is necessary in order to provide resistance to the tsunami wave energy and also inundation potential. Bathymetric data acquisition and analysis through establishment of more tide gauge stations along the Kenyan coast will improve the ability to detect and issue timely warnings of tsunamis.

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6.0. OUTLINE OF MY ACTION PLAN FOR THE PERIOD 2010 TO 2013 OVERALL GOAL: SEISMICI ACTIVITY MONITORING IN EAST AFRICA RIFT SYSTEMAND TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT IN KENYA COAST FOR EARLY WARNING SYSTEM OBJECTIVES ACTIONS REQUIRED EXPECTED RESULTS RESPONSIBILITY

Real time seismic Establishment of activity seismic networks monitoring to monitor earthquakes

Dense seismic -Government of network Kenya. established, real -Development time data acquired partners support. & processed GPS data acquired and displacement, & EARS movement analyzed Real time Tsunami information &data available for processing -GoK -Development partners -JICA

Monitoring of the Establishment of deformations & GPS network Displacements along the EARS within the EARS.

Real time Tsunami monitoring

Installation of more tide gauges for spatial &temporal resolution data acquisition Designation of Mobilize coastal Evacuation community to center and routes determine and at the Kenya map out most coast vulnerability areas

GoK (MEMR/KMD) -KEMFRI -Development partners -JICA Evacuation centers -GoK (OP/SP and established and Provincial routes designated administration -Tsunami drills -Local authority carried out -Development regularly partners

Networking with tsunami international community

Participate in ICG/IOTWS activities in establishing regional tsunami Warning system.

Regional tsunami early warning established

-Kenyan Government (GoK) -ICG/IOTWS.

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8.0. RECOMMENDATIONS: In view of this study, the following are recommended:

The establishment of GPS stations along the East African Rift System in order to monitor the displacement along the rift and also the rift movement velocity in relation to the plate and sub-plate motions For major projects such as power plants, dams and offshore platforms, seismic hazard evaluation should be carried out through detailed site and regional specific studies in order to minimize the cost of property damage by future severe earthquakes The enforcement of local building codes which contain a seismic zone map that includes minimum required seismic design parameters which are intended to mitigate collapse of buildings and loss of life. The establishment of community based Early warning System along the coast to issue alerts and information about earthquake generating tsunami and arrival time of the tsunami at the coast. The establishment of Evacuation routes and Center in the coastal cities of Kenya especially in Lamu area which has shown greatest risk of tsunami waves. Public awareness and education which should incorporate tsunami drills should also be administered to the vulnerable communities in order to equip them with relevant skill to save their lives in the event of disasters. The setting up of proper channels of communications like the FM radio stations at the village level is necessary to relay information concerning the impending disasters like tsunami as soon as they are detected.

9.0 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT I would like to acknowledge the contributions of Professor F. Kimata in organizing the relevant lectures, giving directions and guidance concerning the Research and this Action Plan. And to all other Lecturers who shared to me the relevant knowledge and ideas during the training I acknowledge your input. I acknowledge the role played by JICA as a sponsor of this course and Kenyan government through the Director Kenya Meteorological Department who nominated me for this particular training. I recognize and appreciate the contributions of the JICA Program Officer Ms Imayoshi Moeko and JICE Training team whose efforts ensured that the training and my stay here in Japan was successful. The support, understanding and cooperation of my co-participants was highly appreciated and acknowledged. Special thanks go to my family for their understanding, tolerance and encouragement during the period I was away for this particular training.

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10.0 REFERENCES J. Biggs, E. Y. Anthony and C.J. Ebinger 1997-2008: Multiple inflation and deflation events at Kenya Volcanoes-East Africa Rift D. Stamps et al., 2008, Eric Calais: Kinematic Model for East Africa Rift N. N. Ambraseys 1990: Earthquake Hazards in Kenya Rift Y. Ishikawa: SEIS-PC for Windows95, ISS/ISC data catalogue (USGS), M. Nakamura., 2006: Source Fault Model for Numerical Tsunami Simulations Weiss P. and W.H.F. Smith, 1998: New improved version of the Generic Mapping Tools. Chorowicz J, (2005): The Mechanisms of the East African Rift System formation-Journal of African Earth Science 43, 379-410. Aniruddha Sengupta: Evaluation of Seismic Risk in Engineering Practice-Chapter 29SP103. Olaf Zielk and Manfred R. Strecker: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America Vol. 99 No. 1, pp 61-70. Recurrence of large earthquakes in Magmatic Continental Rifts (Laikipia-Marmanent Fault, Subukia Valley, Kenya Rift) B. Wisniewski and T. Wolski 2008: Threats to the safety of Navigation resulting from Tsunami.

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