Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Nosisa Ndaba
MPA-ESP Program
School of International and Public Affairs
Columbia University
Executive Summary
The Dominican Republic presently enjoys satisfactory freshwater
availability that can adequately sustain its economic development. The
country’s mean annual precipitation is approximately 1,400mm, with the
range spanning from 700mm to 2,400mm depending on the region. The
variable terrain, ranging from large valleys to mountain ranges, also
contributes to the lack of freshwater in some areas and its abundance in
other areas. Total annual precipitation averages 69 cubic kilometers, while
annual evapotranspiration averages 58 cubic kilometers, leaving
approximately 21 cubic kilometers as runoff that supplies surface and
groundwater. While the country has a rapidly growing economy, it faces
many socioeconomic and environmental challenges, one of them being
freshwater availability, particularly in relation to future climate change and
population growth.
Contents
Introduction………………………………………………………. 4
Surface Water……………………………………………….. 10
Groundwater………………………………………………... 11
Primary Stakeholders……………………………………………. 12
Adaptation Options……………………………………………… 13
Policy Recommendations……………………………………….. 14
Conclusion………………………………………………………… 15
References………………………………………………………… 16
Appendix………………………………………………………….. 18
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Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic
Introduction
Dominican Republic
Figure 1. Map of the Caribbean, with the Dominican Republic highlighted. Source: US
Geological Survey
The country enjoys one of the most abundant per capita water availability
endowments in Latin America, approximately 2,350 cubic meters of water runoff per
year per capita (Secretariat on Environment and Natural Resources, 2006). With a broad
set of watersheds due to the mountainous nature of the island (see Figure E in
Appendix), surface waters and groundwater storage can be found in every region of the
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Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic
country (see Figures B and D in Appendix). However, the climate is highly variable by
region, creating a situation where some areas have an abundance of water availability
and others have water scarcity (Roebuck, Fong, and Harlan, 2002). The mountainous
areas of the country can be found in the Cordilleras Central, Oriental, and Septentrional,
in addition to the Bahoruco and Neiba Sierras. The four most important sources of
surface water come from the Cordillera Central; these include, by order of economic
importance, the rivers Yaque del Norte, Yaque del Sur, Yuna, and Artibonito (Secretariat on
Environment and Natural Resources, 2006).
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Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic
These climate predictions are likely to result in a wide range of impacts that will
impact the physical, economic, and environmental systems of the island. In a recent
study, Bueno et al. (2008) reported that without implementation of adaptation
strategies, climate change impacts will result in the loss of 19.6% of current GDP in the
Dominican Republic by 2050, and 40.3% loss of by 2100. In addition to these economic
impacts, climate change presents a real threat to human life, due to an anticipated
increase in stronger hurricanes, limitations in available freshwater, and decreased in
sanitary conditions. Bueno et al. (2008) provide a detailed breakdown of the breadth of
climate change impacts that the Dominican Republic is likely to experience this century:
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Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic
The Dominican Republic relies on surface water for most of its domestic uses, as
that is its largest storage of freshwater. The mean annual precipitation for the entire
country is approximately 1,400mm or 69 cubic kilometers, with most of it falling from
April to October, particularly during periods of heavy rainfalls, tropical storms, and
hurricanes. From the total precipitation, about 48 cubic kilometers of water are lost to
evapotranspiration, making only 21 cubic kilometers of water runoff available for
consumption annually (FAO, 2008). This water is stored in 14 watersheds, with some
having above necessary supplies and others having below necessary supplies (Roebuck,
Fong, and Harlan, 2002). There are 20 dams that store approximately 2 cubic kilometers
of freshwater annually. In addition, the country’s groundwater systems naturally
recharge approximately 2.2 cubic kilometers annually, with about 7.3 cubic kilometers
being stored (INDRHI, 2003, 2004). The rest of the water is either discharged to the
ocean or consumed (Roebuck, Fong, and Harlan, 2002; see Table A in Appendix). The
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Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic
table below summarizes the annual mean data that describes the hydrological cycle in
the Dominican Republic.
Discharge 11 Freshwater that leaves the land surface into the ocean.
The water balance of any region or watershed can be calculated using a set of
simple equations that describe the inflow, outflow, and total storage of freshwater. In
general, the first simple equation that can help describe a hydrological system is the
conservation equation, which is written as follows (Dingman, 2002):
I – O = ΔS,
Where I is the incoming water quantity, O is the outgoing water quantity, and ΔS is the
change in storage. In general, the conservation equation, as well as all other hydrological
equations, applies to watersheds, which are regions characterized by spatial elevation
changes where all water that falls drains into one basin. Figure E in the Appendix
shows the relevant watersheds in the Dominican Republic.
details and to allow analysis of the water balance with higher resolution. The time-
averaged water balance equation is used for this purpose and is written as follows:
P – ET = Q + Gout + ΔS,
ΔS = P – ET – Q – Gout – C – D,
W = Q/P
0 = P – ET – Q – Gout – C – D
69 (P) – 48 (ET) = 8.5 (Q) + 2.5 (Gout) + 9.5 (C) + 0.5 (D)
The left side of the equation represents total runoff (precipitation minus
evapotranspiration), which is the total water availability. With a population of 9.5
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Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic
million (excluding tourists), the total water availability per capita from runoff alone is
approximately 2,210 cubic meters, of which part must be left for ecosystem needs under
sustainable water resource management. This quantity does not include storage such as
groundwater and lakes, which are renewed over a period of time longer than one year.
While the country has abundant water supplies today, it is important to assess
what the impacts of future growth in consumption and climate change will have on
water availability. We now turn to assess the impacts that population growth and
climate change will have on total water availability.
Surface Water
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Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
Water Scarcity Threshold 360
0
Year
Groundwater
1
Over 75% of the IPCC models used to predict precipitation in the area agree.
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Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic
sea level will rise 18 to 59 cm this century, excluding uncertainties in positive feedback
effects.2
Primary Stakeholders
The reduced freshwater availability in the Dominican Republic this century will
have a significant impact on the entire population. In effect, this makes every sector in
the Dominican Republic a stakeholder because they all depend on freshwater.
However, there are key, identifiable stakeholders that are critical to the nation’s
economy and will be particularly impacted because of increasing water stress. We
identify these stakeholders in the following table.
Impact
Reduced rainfall and storage will reduce the amount of land under
Agriculture
agriculture and the amount of food produced.
2
ote: Recent studies project sea-level rise to be on the order of one meter or more this century.
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Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic
Adaptation Options
The projected reductions in freshwater availability in the Dominican Republic
will require the largest water users to significantly reduce water consumption. In effect,
a strategy to adapt to lower freshwater availability inside the island will be necessary.
Planning and acting now for these future impacts would lessen the impacts reduced
freshwater availability may have and will save financial resources in the long-term. The
table below shows the potential adaptation options for various sectors.
Adaptation Options
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Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic
Policy Recommendations
The Dominican Republic faces a particularly challenging future in terms of
freshwater availability. According to United Nations Development Programme (2007),
the threshold for freshwater scarcity is approximately 1,000 cubic meters per capita per
year. We project that freshwater availability will reach this level around 2050 given no
adaptation measures. This projection comes at a time when the Dominican Republic’s
government and the United Nations’ Secretary-General, Ban Ki-moon (as of 2008), are
counting on making the Dominican Republic the Caribbean’s “breadbasket” (Campo,
2008). In order to achieve such a goal, there will need to be substantial improvements in
the efficiency of the agricultural sector to ensure it can grow without reaching an
unsustainable threshold that will render further growth or stability impractical.
- Adaptation
Stakeholders State Secretariat on Measures
Environment and atural
Agriculture, Urban - Mandate for
Resources
Populations, Power Producers, Freshwater
Tourism, Industry, Assessment
Ecosystems State Secretariat on
Agriculture - Agency
Authority to
Implement Law
ational Institute on
Assistance and Potable Water and Sewer
Requirements
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Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic
address the challenge effectively and involve all stakeholders. Recently, the country’s
National Institute for Hydraulic Resources has advocated for the adoption of a Water
Code to replace old legislation and authorize the Institute to regulate effective and
rational water management nationally (INDRHI, 2008). Given the projections of this
assessment, passage of new legislation is necessary. This new legislation must consider
the following policy recommendations to effectively address upcoming water
shortages:
• Assess freshwater resources across the country and ensure that all necessary
information is existing and readily available to the public;
• Fully assess all available technologies and methodologies for every sector,
particularly agriculture, and the access to these in domestic and foreign markets;
Conclusion
The Dominican Republic faces a serious challenge this century. While there is
enough freshwater today to fulfill the nation’s needs, freshwater availability is projected
to decline by approximately 85% by the end of the century due to climate change and
population growth. With a fast-growing economy, the nation will have to consider
adaptation strategies that will allow livelihoods to continue to improve this century,
particularly given that water demand is set to rise. Nevertheless, the country has the
opportunity to begin planning now, within the broader framework of climate change
adaptation, for the medium to long term to avoid having freshwater availability become
a crisis that will significantly compromise the well-being of its citizens. This will require
new policy to enable collaborative, sustainable freshwater management and incentivize
dramatic improvements in conservation across the country.
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Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic
References
Bueno, Ramon et al. 2008. “The Caribbean and Climate Change: The Costs of Inaction.”
Global Development and Environment Institute, Tufts University.
Food and Agriculture Organization. 2008. “Summary Fact Sheet: Dominican Republic.”
AquaStat: Global Information System on Water and Agriculture.
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Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic
Palma, Alejandro Gomez. 2008. “La Política Publica como enfoque estratégico y
metodología.” Instituto de Políticas Públicas Para America Latina.
Roebuck, Laura W.; Fong, Alan W.; and Harlan, Amy E. 2002. “Water Resources
Assessment of the Dominican Republic.” U.S. Army Corps of Engineers.
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Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic
Appendix3
Irrigation 7,500 76
Ecosystems 500 5
Industrial 305 3
Tourism 40 0.5
3
Sources: U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the Secretariat on Environment and Natural Resources.
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Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic
Figure C. Land Use in the Dominican Republic. Orange, yellow, and light green are agricultural
areas.
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Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of the Dominican Republic
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