Why there is not enough Space for all

With the Russians on a crash course and Indias anaemic funding throttling its skyward ambitions, the field is clear for China and the West to duke it out in space.

Space may well be limitless, but theres a catch up there, quality real estate is limited. With our current levels of technologies, there are just two bodies that can be colonized: the Moon and Mars. A quick glance at history will show you that on our own planet we reached the limits of exploration and conquest three centuries ago. The nations of Western Europe, realising their countries were too small and poverty stricken compared with the nations of Asia, despatched or expelled their surplus and unwanted populations into North and South America, Africa and Oceania, eventually claiming entire continents in the name of their king, queen or Pope. During the colonial era, pirates such as Francis Drake of England and criminals (http://www.examiner.com/article/christopher-columbus-the-murderous-truth) like Christopher Columbus of Spain were backed by their countries to find new land, gold and slaves not necessarily in that order for the greater glory of their country. The parallels are not far-fetched. American Neil Armstrong, the first man on the moon, wrote to National Public Radio in 2010 on the need for Americans to return to the moon: Some question why Americans should return to the moon. After all, they say, we have already been there. I find that mystifying. It would be as if 16th-century monarchs proclaimed that we need not go to the New World, we have already been there. Or as if President Thomas Jefferson announced in 1803 that Americans need not go west of the Mississippi, the Lewis and Clark expedition has already been there. Americans have visited and examined six locations on Luna, varying in size from a suburban lot to a small township. That leaves more than 14 million square miles yet to explore.

Eyes on space Many Americans share the colonising zeal of Armstrong, a Scot. After decades of drift at NASA, the Americans are now growing tomorrows private space adventurers. These corporations are now beginning to gatecrash what was once the exclusive preserve of countries. According to the California Institute of Technology, Private corporations have ambitious agendas for orbital payload delivery and astronaut transport, space tourism, and even interplanetary travel. The share of space technologies developed and built in the private sphere continues to increase as both old and new companies ramp up their space efforts. Space agencies around the world, including in the United States, are increasing their reliance on these services to reduce costs and avoid long development cycles.

In May 2010, the PayPal entrepreneur Elon Musks company, SpaceX, made history when his Dragon spacecraft successfully docked with the International Space Station. On June 21, 2013 the company was awarded a contract to launch Turkmenistans first satellite to geostationary orbit. SpaceX has a head start, but soon other companies such as Boeing, Sierra Nevada Corporation and PlanetSpace will be competing to carry astronauts and satellites into orbit. Chicago-based PlanetSpace, which is co-owned by India-born Chirinjeev Kathuria, is looking to compete for a $3 billion commercial contract that will ship cargo to the ISS. And thats just the big boys, says Quartz magazine. Lots of other private American companies enter each year to win prizes designed to spur innovation in manned space flight and moon landings.

Europes challenge British entrepreneur Richard Bransons Virgin Galactic is selling tickets for flights in SpaceShipTwo and has unveiled LauncherOne, its small satellite launch system. The European Space Agency is a quiet operator but it has the lions share of global satellite launches. It also oversees a vast network of specialised companies and research groups to establish space clusters that can easily launch a manned push into space. A good example is the Lithuanian Space Association, which is using its expertise gained from the Soviet Unions Salyut and Mir orbital stations and the Buran space shuttle to contribute to American and European space programmes. The Association claims hundreds of its engineers have contributed to NASA programmes such as Cassini and Galileo.

China While the West is regrouping, it is largely in response to Chinas strides in space. Beijing arrived late in the space race, but it is now only the second country after Russia to regularly send astronauts (or taikanauts) to space. Its third unmanned probe to the Moon, slated for late 2013, will be China's first lunar rover, and the first spacecraft to make a soft landing on the Moon since the Soviet Luna 24 mission in 1976. On September 29, 2011, China launched its Tiangong-1 space laboratory the first section of its planned orbital space station. Around 2020, when the ISS is decommissioned and meets a fiery end over the Pacific Ocean, China will become the only nation to have a space station. Thats also the year when the first Chinese men or women will walk on the Moon.

Russia: Crash course

In April, President Vladimir Putin unveiled a new $50 billion drive for Russia to preserve its status as a top space power, including the construction of a brand new cosmodrome. Russias Plan B better work because things arent going very well at the current space port. On July 2, in a nightmarish scenario more common in the previous century than the current a 700 ton Russian rocket started returning to the launch site, seconds after liftoff. The Proton M launch vehicle had to be destroyed over Kazakhstans Baikonur Cosmodrome, the worlds busiest spaceport. While nobody was hurt, the toxic cloud of the explosion forced the 70,000 citizens of Baikonur to stay indoors. Russia clearly is in need of a Sputnik moment as something is seriously wrong with the countrys space programme, which has lurched from one failure to another. To the casual observer, it would seem that bureaucrats rather than scientists are running the Russian Space Agency. It might well be the case because currently the Russian space programme lacks focus. The Russians need to set goals it could either be a colony on the Moon or a manned mission to Mars; anything to attract the younger generation of engineers.

India: Not enough funds After its 100th successful launch earlier this year, Indias space programme looks solid. The problem is the pace of an elephant. India cannot afford to be always 10-15 years behind China. Beijings first manned mission was in 2003; last month it notched up its fourth. Indias first manned flight is unlikely to be before 2017. Its not that India lags in technology; it simply lacks the will. Where the Chinese believe success in space boosts national pride, Indias geriatric political leadership cannot be accused of harbouring such sentiments. While the Chinese want to leap ahead of the West and avenge the humiliations of the colonial era, the Indian leadership continues to believe in the Wests friendly assurances of support. The upshot China is becoming a technological wonderland even as Indias achievements have a sense of deja vu. The biggest problem is funding a measly $1.3 billion. In the last decade the number of Indias space missions increased from two-three annually to around 14. However, the number of scientists, engineers and support staff remained unchanged at 16,000. In contrast the Chinese programme employs over 120,000 technical staff.

Mining space: Key to long-term presence

Space is important for two key reasons. One, nations that have access to space will dominate those left on the ground. An apt metaphor would be the invention of the stirrup in 500 BCE (http://books.google.co.nz/books?id=LoSYtnfN7yIC&pg=PA571&lpg=PA571&dq=invention+of+stirrup+b y+Indians&source=bl&ots=4yaKIAz5Yt&sig=CW5snwa8ukO7RvIE37MsurRnPZQ&hl=en&sa=X&ei=PijZUc6IcbJiAe554CYBw&ved=0CGgQ6AEwBQ#v=onepage&q=invention%20of%20stirrup%20by%20Indians&f= false) by the Indians, which transferred power from the foot soldier to the cavalryman mounted high on his steed. Secondly, with the earths resources being finite, the mining of the Moon, Mars and the asteroids would become viable in the decades ahead. Only nations having the ability to extract resources in space will build colonies or large space stations. Large space stations alone can generate artificial gravity for humans to avoid the debilitating effects of prolonged weightlessness. Also, space flight will change how we travel just as the internet transformed the way we communicate quickly and affordably. The internet has opened up the world to rapid information exchange. Suborbital space flight will do the exact same thing to travel, Kathuria of PlanetSpace told me. The stakes being sky high, space will most certainly be the next big battleground. After the Curiosity rover landed on Mars, an American expert declared: The red planet is firmly in American hands. It doesnt take a rocket scientist to figure that what the New World was in the seventeenth century, space will be in the twenty-first.