REKAYASA TRAFIK

TRAFI K CONCEPT




Oleh :
Anas Amrullah Hidayat
105060309111002















JURUSAN TEKNIK ELEKTRO
FAKULTAS TEKNIK
UNIVERSITAS BRAWIJAYA
MALANG 2010


POISSON DISTRIBUTION
Poisson distribution obtained from the state as follows:
a. The random arrival of calls with an average rate equal to the arrival of a
call a (constant / fixed, not dependent number occupation that exists)
because the number of calls infinite.
b. The number of channels to accommodate infinite, so calls that come
always to be served by the line and pattern duration of occupation is the
Negative Exponential Distribution.
c. Traffic that meets the Poisson distribution, the average price will be equal
to the variance (M = V).
The situation can be described as follows:
As a source of incoming calls is a file with an infinite number of channels.
As the container calls the "beam out" a number sallurannya also infinite, so calls
that come to him always to be served by the line of the file out of it.
The decrease can be obtained from the Poisson steps below:
a. From the equilibrium equation:
b
0
.P(0) = d
1
.P(1)
b
1
.P(1) = d
2
.P(2)
. .
. .
B
n-1
.P(n-1) = d
n
.P(n)
We will see how big is It b
1
, b
2
, ....., b
n
and d
1
, d
2
, ...., d
n
.

b. b
n
(birth coefficient)
For very large source of calls, meaning that the arrival rate is fixed and not
dependent calls how big calls that have succeeded in occupying the
equipment / channel.
So: b
1
= b
2
= ..... = b
n
= a (constant)
The probability of arrival of the call in time dt = a.dt.

c. d
n
(Death coefficient)
The probability of the end of an occupation in a time dt = .dt.
The probability that an occupation will not end in time
dt=1- .dt.

If there are n occupation, then:
- The probability of a particular occupation ended (and the other does
not) in time dt:
.dt (1- .dt)
n-1


- The probability that unlicensed any one occupation will end (and the
other does not) in time dt:

1 1
) . 1 ( . . ) . 1 ( .
1

=
|
|
.
|

\
|
n n
dt dt n dt dt
n
o o o o
dt n . .o =

So the equilibrium equation is:
A.P(0) = 1.P(1)
A.P(1) = 2.P(2)
. .
. .
A.P(n-1) = n.P(n)
With h a
a
A . = =
o
(=The average rate of arrival of the call times the length
of time the average occupation).
And we can get:
) 1 ( ) ( = n P
N
A
n P
) 2 (
) 1 (
2

= n P
n n
A

.
.
.
) 0 (
!
) (
2
P
n
A
n P =
P(0) gained from 1 =

=
n
i
i P
0
) ( , so:

....}
! 3 ! 2
1 ){ 0 ( 1
3 2
+ + + + =
A A
A P

A
e P ). 0 ( = , so
A
e P

= ) 0 (

And:

A
n
e
n
A
n P

= .
!
) ( , with n = 0, 1, 2, ., x.

The formula above is called the POISSON DISTRIBUTION.
Which satisfy the Poisson traffic is called Pure Chance or Random
Arrival Traffic.















Problem And Answer
Chance someone will get a blocking call on when making calls = 0.05. Of the 40
people who made the call:













Calculate the chance that will get a blocking call is:
Nothing
There are 2 people
More than 2 people
How many people will get a blocking call

a. By using the Poisson distribution approaches to binomial distribution, then =
Np = 40 x 0.05 = 2
R = the number of people who get a blocking call on when making a call,
then:
P(R=0) = e
-2
x 2
0
/0!= 0.1353


















b. When X = 2 :
P(R=2) = e
-2
x 2
2
/ 2! = 0.2706
Chance there are two people get the blocking call is 0.2706












c. Who have blocking call more than 2 people, so X = 3, 4, 5, . . . . But P(R=0) +
P(R=1) + . . . = 1, then P(R=3) + P(R=4) + . . . = 1-
(P(R=0)+P(R=1)+P(R=2)). Value of P (R = 0) and P (R = 2) was calculated
above:
P(R=1) = e
-2
x 2
1
/ 1! = 0.2706
chance are sought = 1 (0,1353 + 0,2706 + 0,2706) = 0,3235.
d. No others asked to determine the average , ie = 2 means the expected
happened 2 blocking call in 40 calls.

Conclusion
By changing the R value, number of fixed calls and the possibility of blocking
calls from the whole call is also fixed, it can be formulated as the graph above.