Stocks Update

Guidance for Stock Market Investing Exclusively for TrulyRichClub Members Note: To understand the Stocks Update, first read Bos Ebook, My Maid Invests in the Stock Market. Click here www.TrulyRichClub.com to download now.

Volume 4, No. 7

April 2013

Please Dont Get Cocky

The stock market is soaring to the sky like Superman. Alas, this is the time when people get cocky. This is the time when newbies think they already cracked the code and mastered the formula. This is the time when neophytes think they already know how to make money in the stock market. My Mentor describes it in this way: This is the time when people tell me what to do, he says, chuckling. Haha. Thats like a kid who takes high school Biology and starts giving tips to a Brain Surgeon how to operate a brain. But it happens. Because this is the time when people get cocky. This is the time when a few individuals say, Shucks, I dont really need the advice from TrulyRichClub. Heck, Im making so much money doing things my way. I warn you: Dont make this disastrous mistake. Remember that a high tide lifts all boats (all stocks). And everyone is a guru during a bull market. The Bible says Pride goes before destruction. Thats why you need the TrulyRichClub: To remain humble! May your dreams come true, Bo Sanchez P.S. Mike shares about the reasons why we believe the uptrend will continue.

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What Goes Up Must Go Down

By Mike Vinas Youve heard of this saying, yes? This was coined by Isaac Newton, pertaining to the law of gravity where anything that has risen or raised up must eventually fall down. This is true for balls thrown up in the air, birds flying in the sky, ascending balloons, and airplanes cruising on a high altitude. At one point, they will all have to fall and go back to steady ground. The same is true for the stock market. What causes the rise and fall of stock prices are market forces supply and demand. If there is a demand for a stock, its price goes up. On the other hand, when there is more supply, this causes a correction, or the downturn of prices. Now, what causes demand and what causes supply can be a host of possibilities. For example, good earnings from the business can cause buying interest and eventually drive demand for the stock. Conversely, poor earnings or general fearful investment sentiment may prompt selling from sellers. Hence, creating supply for the stock. Let me give you a clearer application of this by discussing with you the ongoing correction we have in our market.

Is the Uptrend Over?

In the last five months our market has steadily gone up and the long awaited correction finally materialized last March, triggered by share placements and the crisis that Cyprus underwent in Europe. Thus, last early March the market corrected by as much as 523 points or 7.7 percent in a short span of eight days. After rallying above its previous high, primarily caused by the surprise ratings upgrade by Fitch Ratings two weeks ago, the PSEi began to correct again. As expected, investors became worried that the markets uptrend might be over. We in COL and in the TrulyRichClub believe that its not yet over. We remain confident that the weakness we are seeing right now is only temporary. After the consistent rise of the market for several months, it is only normal for any market to correct. There are numerous factors that acted as catalysts to the said correction. These include the markets expensive valuation, the deteriorating economic condition of Europe and the fragile recovery of the US economy. While we were already bullish last February, we are even more bullish on the Philippine market today. With the upgrade of the Philippines sovereign rating to investment grade, there will be numerous positive implications for the economy and the stock market over the long term. With the ratings upgrade, more foreign investors will be willing to lend funds to the Philippine government and companies, which leads to lower funding costs. Also, more foreign investors will also be willing to participate in long-term projects such as infrastructure projects. These factors should help boost investments in the country and drive economic growth. Along with this, we expect more foreign investors to buy local stocks. This is because foreign funds are mandated to invest only in countries that have investment grade rating. This would cause more demand for Philippine stocks and help drive the market higher over the long-term.

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Reasons Why We Think It Will Go Higher

Apart from the ratings upgrade, there are numerous development locally that empowers our conviction that the market will continue to go higher. One, the local economy is on track to maintain its rapid growth this year. Two, OFW remittances remained strong, with an increase of 8.4 percent in January. Three, the governments budget deficit also jumped by 23 percent to P19.5 billion last January as spending increased by 11 percent. Four, there is much less threat that global central banks will hike-up interest rates. Lastly, corporate earnings have been very good. So far with the 37 companies that have released their 2012 earnings, 19 of them or 51 percent reported better than expected results. Since COL Research began tracking corporate earnings, this is the first time that the number of outperformers have reached that much! Amazing! When markets are in correction, investors usually feel less urgency to buy stocks. Since prices are decreasing, there is always a possibility that prices will go down further. On the other hand, it is also very painful to incur losses by buying too early. Truth is no one really knows how long the correction will last or how low prices could drop. Thus, due to our obsession with avoiding losses and getting the best price (also known as market timing or active trading), we often miss out on the opportunity. Therefore the best strategy for investing in such a market condition is our SAM strategy. This means buying stocks that are under their Buy Below prices in several tranches monthly or quarterly. Stick with SAM and as soon as the market recovers and rallies, you will see how your constant discipline to buy during these times will pay-off. In fact pay-off big time! Happy investing during the correction! P.S. Ill talk more on our new SAM Stocks BDO and MWC on our next issue.

Here are our SAM Tables (as of closing April 16, 2013)
STOCK BDO FPH DNL JGS MBT MER MPI MWC SMPH Current Price 86.10 105.50 7.00 42.50 118.30 345.00 5.58 40.10 18.98 Buy Below Price 89.60 120.90 8.48 37.39 129.60 330.40 5.64 38.26 22.90 Target Price 112.00 139.00 9.75 43.00 149.00 380.00 6.55 44.00 26.35 Action to Take Continue buying Continue buying Continue buying HOLD: Stop buying *as per Bos instructions Continue buying Stop buying for now Continue buying Stop buying for now HOLD: Stop buying *as per Bos instructions

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STOCK SYMBOL BDO TOTAL FPH TOTAL DNL TOTAL JGS TOTAL

DATE BOUGHT Apr-13 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12

PRICE BOUGHT 86.10 63.18 61.25 59.55 56.35 55.25 54.25 62.10 62.10 60.50 63.25 63.00 64.90 68.80 78.20 77.50 76.85 80.00 90.30 89.85 93.70 109.00 108.50 105.50 6.45 6.71 7.00 25.75 26.55 34.00 31.40 32.00 32.50 32.95 33.20 34.10

PRICE TODAY 86.10 105.50 105.50 105.50 105.50 105.50 105.50 105.50 105.50 105.50 105.50 105.50 105.50 105.50 105.50 105.50 105.50 105.50 105.50 105.50 105.50 105.50 105.50 105.50 7.00 7.00 7.00 42.50 42.50 42.50 42.50 42.50 42.50 42.50 42.50 42.50

YOUR RETURN 0.00% 0.00% 66.98% 72.24% 77.16% 87.22% 90.95% 94.47% 69.89% 69.89% 74.38% 66.80% 67.46% 62.56% 53.34% 34.91% 36.13% 37.28% 31.88% 16.83% 17.42% 12.59% -3.21% -2.76% 0.00% 49.32% 8.53% 4.32% 0.00% 4.28% 65.05% 60.08% 25.00% 35.35% 32.81% 30.77% 28.98% 28.01% 24.63% 36.74%

BUY BELOW PRICE 89.60 72.42 72.42 72.42 72.42 72.42 72.42 72.42 77.00 77.00 93.18 93.18 94.09 100.80 102.43 102.43 102.43 96.19 99.74 99.74 108.70 120.87 120.87 116.87 8.48 8.48 8.48 28.83 30.43 34.78 34.78 34.78 34.78 34.78 34.78 37.39

TARGET PRICE 112.00 90.90 90.90 90.90 90.90 90.90 90.90 90.90 106.81 106.81 107.16 107.16 108.20 115.92 117.80 117.80 117.80 110.62 114.70 114.70 125.00 139.00 139.00 134.40 9.75 9.75 9.75 35.00 35.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 40.00 43.00

EXPECTED GROWTH 30.08% 30.08% 43.87% 48.41% 52.64% 61.31% 64.52% 67.56% 46.38% 72.00% 76.55% 69.42% 70.10% 66.72% 68.49% 50.64% 52.00% 53.29% 38.28% 27.02% 27.66% 33.40% 27.52% 28.11% 27.39% 51.01% 51.16% 45.31% 39.29% 45.25% 35.92% 31.83% 17.65% 27.39% 25.00% 23.08% 21.40% 20.48% 26.10% 25.43%

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STOCK SYMBOL MBT TOTAL MER TOTAL MPI TOTAL SMPH TOTAL

DATE BOUGHT Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Oct-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 Feb-13

PRICE BOUGHT 71.52 79.55 75.50 72.00 69.05 71.90 68.00 70.60 78.90 88.00 86.00 88.75 86.50 93.40 93.00 96.05 103.40 112.50 117.00 118.30 268.00 300.00 320.00 4.58 4.90 5.16 5.70 5.64 18.88

PRICE TODAY 118.30 118.30 118.30 118.30 118.30 118.30 118.30 118.30 118.30 118.30 118.30 118.30 118.30 118.30 118.30 118.30 118.30 118.30 118.30 118.30 345.00 345.00 345.00 5.64 5.64 5.64 5.64 5.64 18.98

YOUR RETURN 65.41% 48.71% 56.69% 64.31% 71.33% 64.53% 73.97% 67.56% 49.94% 34.43% 37.56% 33.30% 36.76% 26.66% 27.20% 23.17% 14.41% 5.16% 1.11% 0.00% 40.11% 28.73% 15.00% 7.81% 17.18% 23.14% 15.10% 9.30% -1.05% 0.00% 9.30% 0.53% 0.53%

BUY BELOW PRICE 78.88 78.88 78.88 78.88 78.88 78.88 78.88 83.07 83.07 93.91 93.91 93.91 93.91 93.91 104.35 104.35 113.04 129.57 129.57 129.57 284.35 330.43 330.43 5.08 5.70 5.70 5.70 5.70 22.91

TARGET PRICE 93.60 93.60 93.60 93.60 93.60 93.60 93.60 108.00 108.00 108.00 108.00 108.00 108.00 108.00 120.00 120.00 130.00 149.00 149.00 149.00 327.00 380.00 380.00 6.35 6.55 6.55 6.55 6.55 26.35

EXPECTED GROWTH 30.87% 17.66% 23.97% 30.00% 35.55% 30.18% 37.65% 52.97% 36.88% 22.73% 25.58% 21.69% 24.86% 15.63% 29.03% 24.93% 25.73% 32.44% 27.35% 25.95% 28.58% 22.01% 26.67% 18.75% 22.48% 38.65% 33.67% 26.94% 14.91% 16.13% 26.06% 39.57% 39.57%

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2012 Top 10 Winners of TrulyRichClubs Stocks

If you followed our Stock Recommendations in the past, youd have enjoyed these earnings. Were reposting this again to encourage you to be faithful to your monthly investments today for the stocks we recommend above. Never give up. And youll have great winners 10 to 20 years from now! Note: The percentage returns cannot be compared between the two tables below. The All Time Winners table does not take into consideration a cost-averaging method. The percentage return is only from a buy-and-hold strategy. The 2012 Table however integrates a cost-averaging method throughout the months it was under the Buy-Below.
STOCKS Ayala Land Nickel Asia Bank of The Philippine Islands Ayala Corporation SM Prime Holdings STOCK SYMBOL ALI TIME RECOMMENDED June 2011 to February 2012 (3rd week) February 2012 to March 2012 (3rd week) February 2012 to November 2012 (4th week) October 2012 to December 2012 (2nd week) February 2012 to December 2012 (1st week) ESTIMATED TIME HELD 9 Months PRICE RANGE P15.09 to P21.65 ESTIMATED RETURN 35%

NIKL

2 Months

P23.75 to P26.20

10.32%

BPI

10 Months

P68.45 to P91.00

34.29%

AC SMPH

2 Months 10 Months

P440.00 to P520.00 P12.48 to P17.00

17.65% 27.75%

Top 10 Past Winners of TrulyRichClubsStocks

STOCKS Lepanto Jollibee Security Bank DMCI Intl Container First Gen Co. Megaworld Nickel Asia Ayala Land Energy Devt Co. STOCK SYMBOL LC JFC SECB DMC ICT FGEN MEG NKL ALI EDC TIME RECOMMENDED Dec 2010 to May 2011 Mar 2010 to May 2011 Mar 2010 to May 2011 Sep 2010 to May 2011 Sep 2010 to May 2011 Mar 2010 to May 2011 Jul 2010 to May 2011 Oct 2010 to May 2011 Mar 2010 to May 2011 Mar 2010 to May 2011 TIME HELD 5 Months 14 Months 14 Months 8 Months 8 Months 14 Months 10 Months 8 Months 14 Months 14 Months PRICE RANGE P0.34 to P0.85 P47.50 to P94.45 P53.00 to P96.20 P27.25 to P44.80 P32.40 to P48.70 P9.80 to P14.78 P1.54 to P2.30 P15.00 to P22.40 P11.25 to P16.64 P4.85 to P6.49 YOUR RETURN 150% 98% 81% 64% 50% 50% 49% 49% 47% 33%

(Disclaimer: Past performance doesnt guarantee that youll have the exact same results in the future. After all, your earnings all depend on the markets performance.)

Mike Vias is a Corporate Accounts Officer and Relationship Manager at CitisecOnline. He is a Certified Securities Representative and a Certified Investment Solicitor.

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