Professional Documents
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We believe there are times to take advantage of the market environment and times when the priority is simply to avoid market risk. This is why we feel a flexible approach to investing is needed.
page 1
19061920
(15 YEARS)
19211928
(8 YEARS)
19291932
(4 YEARS)
19331936
(4 YEARS)
(5 YEARS)
19371941
-9%
(24 YEARS)
19421965
9%
19661981
(16 YEARS)
(18 YEARS)
19821999
15%
20002012
(13 YEARS)
BEAR BULL
1%
20%
-33%
32%
-1%
1%
10,000
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
1,000
100
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2012
Used with permission: Crestmont Research, www.crestmontresearch.com. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ("Dow"), a registered trademark of Dow Jones & Co., Inc., is an unmanaged index composed of 30 common stocks. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Returns shown above do not reect the reinvestment of dividends or other distributions; these total return gures are not available for the Dow prior to October 1987. Returns shown represent only the price appreciation of the index. page 2
Long-Term Bull Market 1942-1966 Secular Bull & Bear Markets Jan. 1942 to Dec. 2012
1 Bull Market 2 1942-1966 3 Market PeriodLong-Term
Time (Years) 4.1 122.63% 1 -20.27% 1.1 11.94%
BULL
BEAR
4
0.9 -11.12%
5
3.6
6
0.7
7
2.6 95.93%
8
1.6
10521 7549 -13.82% 5417 3887 2789 2001 1436 1031 739
9
2.2 54.04%
905 677 507 379 284 212 159 119 89 1047 905 783
Percent Change
23.8
1 2 3 4 5 6 CUMULATIVE
RETURN
17.4
8 9 10 11 12 13
CUMULATIVE RETURN
1943
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
677 586 507 439 379 328 284 246 212 184 159 137 119 103 89
931.46%
1950 1960 1966
1321.87%
1983 1985 1990 1995 2000 Long-Term Bear Market 2000-2012
TOTAL NUMBER OF YEARS
23.8
TOTAL NUMBER OF YEARS
16.5
CUMULATIVE RETURN
-17.78%
1943 1975 1980 1982 1950
YEAR
931.46% 13
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
CUMULATIVE RETURN
13.98%
1967
1970
2000
1960
2005
2010 1966
DEC 2012
Cyclical market data courtesy of Ned Davis Research. Used with permission. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. 2011 Ned Davis Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Cyclical market data courtesy of Ned Davis Research. Used with permission. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. Jones All rights reserved. Return data sourced from Bloomberg. Total cyclical market returns are calculated using the closest month ends. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (a registered trademark of Dow & Co., Inc.) Return data sourced from Bloomberg. Total cyclical market returns are calculated using the closest month ends. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (a registered trademark of Dow Jones & Co., Inc.) is an unmanaged index composed of 30 common stocks. It is not possible is an unmanaged index composed of 30 common stocks. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Returns shown above do not reect the reinvestment of dividends or other distributions. to invest in an index. shown above do not reect the reinvestment of dividends or other distributions. Returns shown represent only the price appreciation of the index. Returns showndirectly represent only the Returns price appreciation of the index. page 3
Long-Term Bear Market 1966-1982 Secular Bull & Bear Markets Jan. 1942 to Dec. 2012
1 2 3 Bull Market 1942-1966 Market PeriodLong-Term
Time (Years) 0.7 2.2
27.24%
BULL
BEAR
4
0.7
23.17%
5
0.6
-11.70%
6
1.1
7
1.9
8
1.8
10521
9
1.4
-25.05%
1.8
-22.38%
1.7
-6.82%
1.0
22.11%
1.3
-18.96%
BEAR BULL
TOTAL NUMBER OF YEARS
60.05%
5417 3887 2789 2001 8 1436 1031 739
7549
23.8
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 CUMULATIVE RETURN
17.4
9 10 11 12 13
CUMULATIVE RETURN
931.46%
1950 1960 1966
1321.87%
1983 1985 1990 1995 2000 Long-Term Bear Market 2000-2012
1943
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
16.5 16.5
CUMULATIVE RETURN
-17.78%
1967
-17.78% 13
CUMULATIVE RETURN
13.98%
1967
1970
1975
1980 1970
1982
1975
YEAR
2000
2005
1980
2010 1982
DEC 2012
Cyclical market data courtesy of Ned Research. Used Used with permission. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. 2011 Ned Davis Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Cyclical market data courtesy ofDavis Ned Davis Research. with permission. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Return data sourced from Bloomberg. Return data sourced from Bloomberg. Total cyclical market returns are calculated using the closest month ends. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (a registered trademark of Dow Jones & Co., Inc.) of 30 common stocks. It is not possible Total cyclical market returns are calculated using the closest month ends. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (a registered trademark of Dow Jones & Co., Inc.) is an unmanaged index composed is an unmanaged indexin composed 30 common stocks. isnot notreect possible invest directly an index. shown above do not shown reect the reinvestment ofprice dividends or other of distributions. to invest directly an index.of Returns shown above It do theto reinvestment of in dividends orReturns other distributions. Returns represent only the appreciation the index. Returns shown represent only the price appreciation of the index.
page 4
This bull market offered attractive results over the long term
Long-Term Bull Market 1983-2000
Long-Term Bull Market 1983-2000 Secular Bull & Bear Markets Jan. 1942 to Dec. 2012
1Bull Market 1942-1966 2 Market PeriodLong-Term
Time (Years) 1.3 57.81% 0.7 -12.60%
BULL
BEAR
3
3.1 138.77%
4
0.2
5
2.8
6
0.2
10521 7549 -15.58% 5417 3887 2789 2001 1436 1031 739
Percent Change
23.8
1 2 3 4 5 6 CUMULATIVE RETURN
17.4
7 8 9
CUMULATIVE RETURN
931.46%
1960 1966
1321.87%
1983 1985 1990 1995 2000 Long-Term Bear Market 2000-2012
TOTAL NUMBER OF YEARS
1943
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
75491950 5417 3887 3293 2789 2363 2001 1695 1436 1217 1031 873 739
17.4
TOTAL NUMBER OF YEARS
16.5
CUMULATIVE RETURN
-17.78%
1983
1321.87%13
Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
CUMULATIVE RETURN
13.98%
1967
1970
1975
1985
1980
1982
1990
YEAR
2000
1995
2005
2010 2000
DEC 2012
Cyclical market data courtesy of Ned Davis Research. Used with permission. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. 2011 Ned Davis Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Cyclical market data courtesy of Ned Davis Research. Used with permission. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Return data sourced from Bloomberg. Return data sourced from Bloomberg. Total cyclical market returns are calculated using the closest month ends. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (a registered trademark of Dow Jones & Co., Inc.) Total cyclical market returns are calculated using the closest month ends. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (a registered trademark of Dow Jones & Co., Inc.) is an unmanaged index composed of 30 common stocks. It is not possible is an unmanaged index composed of 30 common stocks. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Returns shown above do not reect the reinvestment of dividends or other distributions. to invest directly in an index. Returns shown above do not reect the reinvestment of dividends or other distributions. Returns shown represent only the price appreciation of the index. Returns shown represent only the price appreciation of the index.
page 5
Long-Term Bear Market 2000-2012 Secular Bull & Bear Markets Jan. 1942 to Dec. 2012
1 Bull Market 1942-1966 2 Market PeriodLong-Term
Time (Years) 1.7 -23.05% 0.5 17.59%
BULL
BEAR
3
0.5 -27.03%
4
5.0
TOTAL NUMBER 83.03% OF YEARS
5
1.4
10521
6
2.2 81.38%
Percent Change
-49.17%
23.8
1 2 3 4 CUMULATIVE
RETURN
17.4
5 6 7 8
CUMULATIVE RETURN
1943
DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE
14399 1960 13735 1950 13102 12498 11922Long-Term Bear Market 1966-1982 11373 10849 10348 9872 9417 8982 8568 8174 7797 7437 7095 6768 6456
931.46%
1966
1321.87%
1983 1985 1990 1995 2000 Long-Term Bear Market 2000-2012
13
TOTAL NUMBER OF YEARS
16.5
CUMULATIVE RETURN
-17.78%
1980 1982
2005
YEAR
13.98% 13
CUMULATIVE RETURN
13.98%
1967
1970 2000
1975
2000
2005 2010
DEC 2012
Cyclical market data courtesy of Ned Research. Used Used with permission. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. 2011 Ned Davis Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Cyclical market data courtesy ofDavis Ned Davis Research. with permission. Further distribution prohibited without prior permission. 2013 Ned Davis Research, Inc. All rights reserved. Return data sourced from Bloomberg. Return data sourced from Bloomberg. Total cyclical market returns are calculated using the closest month ends. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (a registered trademark of Dow Jones & Co., Inc.) of 30 common stocks. It is not possible Total cyclical market returns are calculated using the closest month ends. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (a registered trademark of Dow Jones & Co., Inc.) is an unmanaged index composed is an unmanaged indexin composed 30 common stocks. isnot notreect possible invest directly an index. shown above do not shown reect the reinvestment ofprice dividends or other of distributions. to invest directly an index.of Returns shown above It do theto reinvestment of in dividends orReturns other distributions. Returns represent only the appreciation the index. Returns shown represent only the price appreciation of the index.
page 6
8.21%
GREED
4.25%
ENTHUSIASM
BUY
DESPAIR
TIME
Source: Dalbar, Inc., Quantitative Analysis of Investor Behavior, March 2013. The bar chart depicts the average annually compounded returns of equity indices vs. equity mutual fund investors based on the length of time shareholders actually remain invested in a fund and the historic performance of the funds appropriate index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investors cannot invest directly in an index.
page 7
SCENARIO
SCENARIO
SCENARIO
STARTING BALANCE
$1,000,000
$1,000,000
$1,000,000
AMOUNT LOST
-$100,000 -10%
-$300,000 -30%
-$500,000 -50%
+11%
+43%
+100%
This is a hypothetical example used for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of any particular investment.
page 8
3.00% 3.00%
-3.36% 7.89%
-1.13% 2.56%
33% 11%
$1,300,000
$1,260,000
$1,200,000
up
PORTFOLIO AMOUNT
26
do wn
35
$1,100,000
up 8%
$1,078,920 $972,000
up 11%
$1,000,000
$900,000
$1,080,000
down
10%
8% up 1
$966,420
$800,000
$819,000
$700,000 1
NUMBER OF YEARS
This is a hypothetical example used for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of any particular investment.
Standard deviation measures historical volatility, with a more volatile investment having a higher standard deviation than a less volatile investment. page 9
4.6%
SECURITY SELECTION
1.8%
TIMING
Studies suggest that asset allocation, including market participation, is responsible for over 90% of the variance in portfolio performance.
2.1%
OTHER FACTORS
91.5%
ASSET ALLOCATION*
*Asset allocation cannot eliminate the risk of fluctuating prices and uncertain returns. Sources: Brinson, Hood & Beebower, Financial Analysts Journal, 1986 and Brinson, Singer & Beebower, Financial Analysts Journal, 1991 page 10
PRESENT
2000s 1980s
Intl. Stocks Bonds
1990s
Emerging Markets Intl. Bonds Intl. Bonds Intl. Stocks US Bonds US Bonds Cash Intl. Stocks
Emerging Markets
Cash
However, investing in a variety of asset classes has not provided compelling diversification in recent years
Maximum Drawdowns
0 -10% -20%
The largest percentage decline from a high (peak) to a low (trough) from Oct. 2007 to Feb. 2009
-30%
-39.06%
-40% -50% -60%
-50.17%
US STOCKS
COMMODITIES
-54.99%
INTL STOCKS
-64.40%
REITs
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Tech Wreck
Credit Crisis
Flash Crash
Tsunami in Japan
There is no guarantee that any investment product will achieve its objectives, generate prots or avoid losses. Past performance is not indicative of future results. An investor cannot invest directly in an index. Moreover, indices do not reect commissions or fees that may be charged to an investment product based on the index, which may materially affect the performance data presented. INDICES: Intl Stocks: MSCI AC World ex-US Index; US Stocks: S&P 500 Total Return; Commodities: Dow Jones UBS Commodity Index; REITs: FTSE NAREIT Equity Index. Source: Zephyr StyleADVISOR.
page 12
We believe the next step forward must reach beyond asset classes to also encompass a mix of investment approaches
Evolving Allocation Models
1980s
1990s
2000s
PRESENT
STRATEGIC
TACTICAL CONSTRAINEDSM
TACTICAL UNCONSTRAINEDSM
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
ABSOLUTE RETURN
They seek to take advantage of the tailwinds of bull markets to capture investment returns.
TACTICAL UNCONSTRAINEDSM
ABSOLUTE RETURN
Rowing strategies They have the freedom to delink from the market and are not constrained by a benchmark. They strive to avoid risks in bear markets when headwinds threaten an investors progress.
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
Alternative investments They use various alternative investment strategies that are largely uncorrelated with the stock market.
STRATEGIC
TACTICAL CONSTRAINEDSM
investment markets Aims to put the positive winds of sailing markets to work in your portfolio Relative market exposure and market performance are the important drivers of this strategys risk and return results
with flexibility to make moderate allocation shifts Aims to both benefit from sailing markets and some active allocation decisions Relative market exposure and market performance are important drivers of this strategys risk and return results with further impact from tactical decision making
TACTICAL UNCONSTRAINEDSM
ABSOLUTE RETURN
constraint Aims to provide flexibility for active management particularly to address rowing markets Relative return exposure will vary and, as a result, the decisions made regarding the magnitude and types of asset class exposure taken over time are important drivers of this strategys overall risk and return results
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
of general market direction using highly active risk management Aims to limit the downside participation of your portfolio especially during rowing markets Seeks to maintain low volatility while striving to maximize total return. It is important to note that the strategy is likely to underperform during strong market rallies
Low correlation to the stock market Access to multiple asset classes (equities,
investors as the risk of loss is substantial. Please consider the investment objectives, charges, expenses, investor financial suitability requirements and risk factors carefully before investing.
Capital appreciation strategies They have longer horizons and accept more risk in exchange for greater potential return. These strategies may be most appropriate for investors who are accumulating wealth for retirement or legacy needs. Multi-asset income strategies They are designed to create an enhanced level of current income for retirees. In contrast to traditional fixed income strategies, they may reach across many asset classes as they strive to meet income goals regardless of market conditions.
STRATEGIC
Capital appreciation Multi-asset income
TACTICAL CONSTRAINEDSM
Capital appreciation Multi-asset income
TACTICAL UNCONSTRAINEDSM
Capital appreciation Multi-asset income
ABSOLUTE RETURN
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
Together we can select from well-researched investment firms for your portfolio
Available Portfolio Strategists
STRATEGIC TACTICAL CONSTRAINEDSM
2
TACTICAL UNCONSTRAINEDSM
ABSOLUTE RETURN
3
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
1
Platform Strategists: Altegris Advisors, LLC; Avatar Associates; BlackRock Investment Management; Callan Associates Inc.; DoubleLine Capital LP; Eaton Vance Investment Managers; Forward Management; F-Squared Investment Management, LLC;
Genworth Financial Asset Management; J.P. Morgan Asset Management; Litman Gregory Asset Management, LLC; New Frontier Advisors, LLC; City National Rochdale; Stadion Money Management; State Street Global Advisors. 1Altegris Advisors, LLC is an affiliate of Genworth Financial Wealth Management. 2 Genworth Financial Asset Management (GFAM) is a division of Genworth Financial Wealth Management. 3 DoubleLine is a registered trademark of DoubleLine Capital LP. page 18
page 19
We believe combining approaches to asset allocation and aligning strategies to your life stage are the future of investing
A Diversified Investment Mix
STRATEGIC
Capital appreciation Multi-asset income
TACTICAL CONSTRAINEDSM
Capital appreciation Multi-asset income
TACTICAL UNCONSTRAINEDSM
Capital appreciation Multi-asset income
ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS
ABSOLUTE RETURN
page 20
Prepare your portfolio for changing markets by putting in place a thoughtful mix of asset allocation approaches and strategies based on your individual goals.
page 21
Additional Disclosures
Important Information
Investing in foreign securities presents certain risks not associated with domestic investments, such as currency fluctuation, political and economic instability, and different accounting standards. This may result in greater share price volatility. Investments in emerging market securities may magnify these risks. There are special risks associated with an investment in real estate, including credit risk, interest rate fluctuations and the impact of varied economic conditions. In addition to market risk, there are certain other risks associated with an investment in bonds, such as default risk, the risk that the company issuing debt securities will be unable to repay principal and interest, and interest rate risk, the risk that the security may decrease in value if interest rates increase. High-yield bonds, commonly known as junk bonds, are subject to greater loss of principal and interest, including default risk, than higher-rated bonds. This may result in greater share price volatility. Managed futures trading is speculative and volatile and involves a high degree of risk. Trading in futures and options on futures is not appropriate for all persons, as the risk of loss is substantial. Therefore, except for those considered to be bona fide hedgers, investors should only use risk capital in futures trading. There is no guarantee that an Absolute Return strategy will be profitable or prevent losses in a declining market. A short position or selling short is the practice of selling a security that one does not currently own.Investing in a short position is riskier than an investment in a long position. The maximum loss that can be incurred on a long position is limited to the total amount of the original investment; whereas, in addition to other risks, the maximum loss on a short position has no fixed ceiling because an assets price may rise indefinitely, resulting in the potential for unlimited losses. Trading in commodities is not appropriate for all persons, as the risk of loss is substantial. Therefore, except for those considered to be bona fide hedgers, investors should only use risk capital in futures trading. There is no guarantee that a multi-asset income or capital appreciation objective will be profitable or attain income goals. Consider the investment objectives and risk factors carefully before investing. Alternative investments are not suitable for all investors as the risk of loss is substantial. Please consider the investment objectives, risk factors, charges and expenses carefully before investing.
page 23
Index Definitions
International Equity: The Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) All Country World Index (MSCI ACWI) ex US is a free floatadjusted capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity performance of countries considered to represent both developed and emerging markets, excluding the US. US Stocks: The S&P 500 Index, a registered trademark of the McGraw Hill Companies, is an unmanaged basket of 500 US stocks that are considered to be widely held and thus believed to be a good indicator of overall market performance. Commodities: The Dow UBS Commodity Index is composed of futures contracts of 19 physical commodities traded on US exchanges, with the exception of aluminum, nickel and zinc, which trade on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The component weightings are also determined by several rules designed to insure diversified commodity exposure. US Real Estate: FTSE NAREIT Equity Index is a broad measure of the performance of publicly traded real estate securities, such as Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Real Estate Operating Companies.
page 24
For more complete information about the various investment solutions available on the platform and the fees associated with them, please refer to the Disclosure Brochure, which you can obtain from your financial advisor. Crestmont Research, founded by Ed Easterling, provides secular market research to Genworth Financial Wealth Management (GFWM). His book, Unexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles, discusses the Sailing and Rowing analogy which is also used by GFWM to describe asset allocation and portfolio construction strategies. Jeff Babajani Calpars Wealth Management 10604 Pinewood Ave Ste A Tujunga, CA 91042 Office: (818)217-8400 Email: jbabajani@innovationpartnersllc.com
12484 | C11073 | 06/2013 | REF
Calpars Wealth Management is not affiliated with Genworth Financial Wealth Management, Inc. (GFWM) and Capital Brokerage Corporation. GFWM, an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission, is a wholly owned subsidiary of Genworth Financial, Inc. Genworth and Genworth Financial are service marks of Genworth Financial, Inc. Capital Brokerage Corporation, 6620 West Broad Street, Building 2, Richmond, VA 23230. Member FINRA. Capital Brokerage Corporation and Altegris Advisors, LLC are Genworth Financial companies. Genworth Financial Asset Management is a division of GFWM. 2013 Genworth Financial Wealth Management, Inc. All rights reserved.