Public health and HPAI Panzootics Epizootics Pandemics Global health diplomacy - a qsn of strategy on how to tackle future

outbreaks. Maybe we should ride the outbreaks and reduce the global epidemics to reduce the human populations. Tools for fighting the disease: 1. Collaborations between human health specialists, veterinarians, epidemiologists, ecologists, politicians. Avian influenza in Zimbabwe Introduction - AI outbreaks and the effects they have on socio-economic, agric, ecosystem and biodiversity. - target species and why they are susceptible. Knowledge gap in tropical coutries Hypotheses: 1.Ai in waterbirds influenced by community structure, density factor and composition (PMs, and anseriforms). A) Ai influenced by resource gradients: areas with permanent water sources likely to have higher risk as there is circulation all year- high host density, dry years likely to have higher prevelence as density and diversity increases in the waterbird community. B) community composition, presence of high risk species (Anseriformes, wader species, migrant species) C) species traits - ecological behaviour of a species increases susceptibility to infection, hence increased prevalence of Ai in some species compared to others. D) proportion of juvenile Anseriformes within the waterbird community likely amplifies AI prevalence as they provide immunologically nave hosts. Study area Counts and sampling carried out in lake chivero and manyame Counts and sampling also carried out in the Hwange Nat Park which is the breeding area for most anseriformes. Results Present results according to the hypothesis being tested * community composition and density (ostrich) *presence of hrs with the community * ecological behaviour (dabbling, interaction) *Proportion of juveniles in the ecosystem (breeding data and prevalence data) Discussion Waterbird density and composition influenced by resources as well as species ecological behaviour (migration, breeding). Peak in density corresponds to peak in prevalence for wfd and rbt- suggesting influence of the density as governed by resources)

Community has hrs and there is aiv prevalence all year round... 4 duck species infected, wader species also infected (Jacana, 3-banded plover) Ecological behaviour/ family- rbt belongs to the Anas genus which has been shown to be very susceptible to AIV elsewhere. This is a dabbling duck with high intra-species interaction(MacGregor et al 2011), and has seasonal aggregations which increase the risk of infection. Proportion of juveniles Distinct breeding seasons and areas For at least 4 species - resource dependent and probably an anti- predator/disturbance strategy. No virus in the breeding area- probably due to the sparse distribution which discourages transmission.breedin Dispersal could be an evolutionary pathogen reduction strategy. Increasingly higher prevalence in the post-breeing season as young congregate at the post breeding sites and peak in September when there is peak aggregation of birds in the dry season and immunologically nave young are possibly increasingly in more contact with other bird thereby amplifying infection. Conclusion We can use host ecological data to expain AIV prevalence