Professional Documents
Culture Documents
October 2008
Steve Elliott
Forced Migration Review (FMR) provides
a forum for the regular exchange of
from the editors of
practical experience, information and
ideas between researchers, refugees
and internally displaced people,
and those who work with them. It is
published in English, Arabic, Spanish
and French by the Refugee Studies
Centre, University of Oxford. FMR was
launched in 1998 in partnership with In his article on page 47 of this issue, Craig Johnstone, Deputy High Commissioner
the Norwegian Refugee Council. of UNHCR, says that “Our generation has failed to live up to its obligations
to prevent climate change. We need urgently to prepare now for the human
Editors consequences of climate change.” One of those consequences is the displacement
Marion Couldrey & Maurice Herson of people from their homes, whether temporarily or permanently. Researchers
and politicians may argue about the numbers likely to be forced to move but all
Assistant Editor (Arabic edition) concur about the need for preparation, adaptation, mitigation – and collaboration.
Musab Hayatli We hope that all readers will be challenged, inspired and informed by the articles in
this FMR.
Coordinator This issue is online at www.fmreview.org/climatechange.htm. If you would like
Heidi El-Megrisi
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Sharon Ellis
We are very grateful to Andrew Morton of UNEP and Scott Leckie of Displacement
Forced Migration Review Solutions for working with us as special advisors on this issue. We would also like
Refugee Studies Centre to thank the following agencies for their generous funding and support: the United
Oxford Department of International Nations Environment Programme, the Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs,
Development, University of Oxford, GTZ/German Federal Ministry for Economic Co-operation and Development, the
3 Mansfield Road, Oxford OX1 3TB, UK UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs and the International
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General articles
Recovery and the rule of law: what have we learned? Satellite imagery in use
Kathleen Cravero 64 Einar Bjorgo, Francesco Pisano, Joshua Lyons and Holger Heisig 72
Protecting human rights in Darfur Witchcraft and displacement
Maarten Barends 66 Jeff Crisp 74
Human trafficking: beyond the Protocol Reproductive health in emergencies: new initiatives,
Sergei Martynov 68 renewed commitment
Claire Tebbets 75
HIV/AIDS services for refugees in Egypt
Anna Popinchalk 69 IDPs from Chechnya in the Russian Federation
Nadine Walicki 78
International refugee law in Mexico
Axel García 71 Watch the wind 80
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT FMR31
Foreword
Achim Steiner
Human migration, forced or otherwise, sparse. Targeted research and assessment are of
will undoubtedly be one of the course essential to achieve a better understanding of
most significant consequences of the issue but we cannot afford to wait. It is critical
environmental degradation and climate that we start immediately to translate existing
change in decades to come. Many knowledge into humanitarian policies and practices.
experts argue that large numbers of
people are already on the move, with In this context, UNEP, the International Organization for
millions more expected to follow as Migration, the UN University and other international
evidence of climate change mounts. organisations have formed the Migration and Environment
Alliance. This Alliance will provide a forum and catalyst
The Intergovernmental Panel on for new projects and ideas related to environment-driven
Climate Change and UNEP’s Global migration to advance an integrated and coordinated
Environment Outlook have recently approach to this challenging cross-sectoral issue.
delivered sobering assessments of the physical and
environmental impacts of climate change. For example, Sound environmental management and climate change
sea-level rise and unsustainable human development adaptation can help mitigate the causes of migration.
are contributing to the loss of coastal wetlands and Equally, early action and planning mean that the
mangroves and increased damage from coastal flooding. environmental migration processes already under way
Millions of people are projected to be flooded annually can be better managed.
by the 2080s due to sea-level rise. Densely-populated
and low-lying areas where adaptive capacity is Achim Steiner is UN Under-Secretary General
relatively low and which already face other challenges, and Executive Director, United Nations
such as tropical storms, are especially at risk. Environment Programme (UNEP, www.unep.
org). For further information, please contact
Current knowledge about the social consequences Andrew Morton at andrew.morton@unep.org
we should expect from these processes is still quite
Human security
policy challenges
Andrew Morton, Philippe Boncour and Frank Laczko
All evidence points towards climate- and environmentally significant political ramifications
induced migration becoming one of the major policy in addition to humanitarian and
development implications, and is
challenges of this century. Adequate planning for and therefore a truly cross-cutting issue
management of this phenomenon will be critical for requiring proactive intervention.
human security. Indeed, environmental issues
are among the root causes of
The international community such as flooding to impoverished human migration and sustainable
now increasingly recognises that farmers abandoning degraded land long-term solutions must take
environmental degradation and and migrating to urban centres in these environmental dimensions
climate change could potentially search of alternative livelihoods. into account. The humanitarian
result in population displacement
on a scale the world is presently
ill-equipped to prevent or address
in an effective manner. Gradual
processes of degradation as well
as extreme environmental events
can cause migration. Yet current
policy responses tend to focus on
the impacts of sudden disasters
rather than the consequences
of longer-term environmental
degradation. Moreover,
increased migration in itself may
contribute to further degradation
and vulnerability, even when
displacement represents a coping
mechanism and survival strategy.
environmentally induced migration update and unify the terminology affected, with a predictable risk Bangladesh,
September 2007.
has remained largely under the employed in this field.3 One that the scale of the problem will
radar. Its complexity, definitional particular issue of terminology calls soon overwhelm existing capacities
issues as to what constitutes an for resolution: the use of the term and financial resources. Finally,
‘environmental migrant’ as well environmental or climate change environmentally induced migration
as the difficulty of predicting its ‘refugee’, which is widely employed is the end result of unsustainable
scale have in some respects worked but raises many objections due development, and the associated
against building awareness and to its encroachment on the term demographic changes will no
momentum for practical action. commonly used and legally defined doubt have a cumulative impact
in the Refugee Convention of 1951 on development priorities.
Environmental migrants are for the classification of refugees from
understood to be those individuals, violence and political intimidation. Key drivers
communities and societies who Poverty, failing ecosystems,
choose, or are forced, to migrate as A cross-cutting issue vulnerability to natural hazards
a result of damaging environmental Environmental migration, as and gradual climate-driven
and climatic factors. This broad with any mass movement of environmental changes are all linked
and diverse group ranges from population (especially when it to environmental migration. The
people forced to flee disasters entails international migration), has degradation of ecosystems, and/or
6
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT FMR31
demand for resources in excess densely populated coastal zones alleviation, and in most cases
of available supply, can lead to become increasingly affected by continue their inexorable decline.
chronic poverty and hunger, high sea-level rise and more frequent
levels of communicable diseases, storms, and mountainous areas Next steps: the key priorities
conflict and adaptation, or to coping are affected by heavy rains and Proactive intervention is now
strategies that include temporary subsequent floods and landslides. essential. Indeed, the international
or permanent migration. community has so far taken action
Most environmental migrants move in an essentially reactive manner,
While natural hazards such as and settle in urban centres within by responding to the frequent
hurricanes and floods can affect their home countries, with a smaller humanitarian crises and by (largely
entire nations or regions, the most proportion migrating to neighbouring unsuccessfully) assisting developing
dramatic impacts typically fall countries (‘South-South migration’). countries to address explosive urban
disproportionately on the most An even smaller fraction migrates growth and slums. In the absence of
vulnerable (in terms of location long distances to developed countries, successful corrective action, however,
and socio-economic status). In contributing to the ‘brain drain’ the future for many developing
addition, when natural hazards phenomenon of skilled migrants. The countries is likely to be a very
abruptly destroy livelihoods, burden thus falls overwhelmingly difficult combination of widespread
return, recovery and reintegration on least developed countries, land degradation, food insecurity,
are not always possible. even though it is the South-North unmanageable and impoverished
international migration that appears mega-cities and large-scale migration.
Climate change will significantly most frequently in Western media.
affect migration in three distinct While more work is needed
ways. First, the effects of warming Consequences to identify priority hotspots
and drying in some regions will Not all consequences of for intervention, forecasts and
reduce agricultural potential and environmentally induced information from regions that
undermine ‘ecosystem services’ migration are negative. Leaving are already affected provide
such as clean water and fertile soil. environmentally degraded and some indicators. Particularly
Second, the increase in extreme agriculturally unsustainable regions vulnerable areas include Small
weather events – in particular, heavy can be seen as a legitimate coping Island Developing States, the Sahel
precipitation and resulting flash or strategy for affected populations. belt, the Bay of Bengal, dryland
river floods in tropical regions – will In addition, migration could South and Central America, and
affect ever more people and generate potentially help slow the process dryland regions in Central Asia.
mass displacement. Finally, sea- of environmental
level rise will permanently destroy degradation and allow
extensive and highly productive those who remain in
low-lying coastal areas that are affected communities
home to millions of people who to adjust their
will have to relocate permanently. livelihood strategies
by changing their
Trends and patterns agricultural practices
Academics and international agencies or, for instance,
estimate that there are currently shifting to non-
several million environmental agricultural activities.
migrants, and that this number will
rise to tens of millions within the The main impacts
next 20 years, or hundreds of millions of mass migration,
within the next 50 years. These however, are very
figures, however, are largely the result overwhelmingly
of ‘educated guesswork’, based on negative; they
extrapolations from scattered case include escalating
studies and a few highly speculative humanitarian crises,
academic papers. Credible, evidence- rapid urbanisation
based forecasts are needed to raise and associated
awareness, analyse impacts and slum growth, and
direct corrective action but work has stalled development.
yet to start on targeted research to Furthermore, work
develop valid estimates of potential to date suggests that
migration and to correlate them with migration alone does
climate models and predictions. not solve the main
cause of the problem,
At present, the great majority of as degraded regions
environmental migrants originate are not emptied
in rural areas of least developed sufficiently to allow
EC/ECHO/Beatriz Suso
considerations into
Darfur
8
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT FMR31
Estimates of the potential number of ‘climate change Programme (UNEP) argues that
migrants’ vary hugely. In order to persuade policymakers of by 2060 there could be 50 million
‘environmental refugees’ in Africa
the need to act and to provide a sound basis for appropriate alone. Most apocalyptically, in 2007
responses, there is an urgent need for better analysis, better Christian Aid suggested that nearly a
data and better predictions. billion people could be permanently
displaced by 2050: 250 million by
As early as 1990 the Intergovern- rainfall regimes, by droughts of climate change-related phenomena
mental Panel on Climate Change unprecedented severity and duration, such as droughts, floods and
(IPCC)1 was arguing that the greatest and by sea-level rise and coastal hurricanes, and 645 million by dams
single impact of climate change could flooding.”2 This is a daunting figure, and other development projects.
be on human migration. So far, the a ten-fold increase on today’s entire
scientific community has focused on population of documented refugees However, Professor Myers’
establishing the extent and nature of and IDPs. It would mean that by 2050 estimate of 200 million climate
anthropogenic climate change and one in every 45 people in the world migrants by 2050 has become the
its impact on our weather systems would have been displaced by climate generally accepted figure and is
and coastlines. Much
less time and energy,
however, have been
IRIN/Dulue Mbachu
spent on empirical
analysis of the impacts
of climate change on
human population
distribution.
Consequently, the
figures that analysts
have produced to date
represent little more
than well-educated
guesswork. This is
unsurprising; the
science of climate
change is complex
enough, even before
considering its impact
on societies with
widely differing
resources and varied
capacities to adapt
to external shocks.
Flooding of To assess the future
slum housing impact of climate
in the Ebute change on complex
Metta district
changing communities
of Lagos,
Nigeria,
is to heap prediction
September upon prediction,
2007. multiplying
the potential
margin of error. change (from a predicted global widely cited. But repetition does
population of nine billion people). not make the figure inherently
Perhaps the best-known estimate for accurate. Professor Myers himself
future migration forced by climate Other estimates vary widely in admits that his estimate, although
was made by Professor Norman terms of numbers, time frame and calculated from the best available
Myers of Oxford University. Looking causes. In 2005 the UN University’s (and limited) data, required some
ahead to 2050 he has argued that Institute for Environment and Human “heroic extrapolations”. The simple
“when global warming takes hold Security warned that the international fact is that nobody really knows
there could be as many as 200 million community should prepare for 50 with any degree of precision what
people [displaced] by disruptions million ‘environmental refugees’ climate change will mean for
of monsoon systems and other by 2010. The UN Environment human population distribution.
FMR31
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT 9
We know that climate change will highly subjective. Disaggregating Towards better data
redraw our coastlines, alter where the role of climate change from We need more time, effort and
we can grow food, move where and other environmental, economic energy to be put towards developing
when we can find water, and expose and social factors requires an a better understanding of future
us to fiercer storms or more severe ambitious analytical step into the forced migration. This will require
droughts. We know that on current dark. In short, deducing cause and an attempt to develop objective and
predictions the ‘carrying capacity’ of effect between climate change and empirically-based detailed numerical
large parts of the world – the ability forced migration is very difficult. scenarios. To do so we will need to
of different ecosystems to provide generate more advanced computer
food, water and shelter for human Eliminating the statistical models, find better base-line data and
populations – will be compromised ‘white noise’: build the capacity of institutions and
by climate change. Intuitively we Future climate migration will take governments to track movements
know that climate migration is likely place against a background of of forced migrants both within
to be a serious issue in future. We unprecedented changes in the number and across national boundaries.
just don’t know how serious. And it and distribution of the world’s
is hard to persuade policymakers of population. The global population is Some of this is already underway.
its importance without concrete (or currently growing at an annual rate of UNHCR, for example, attempts to
at least more sophisticated) figures. 1.1% and is predicted to peak at 9.075 track refugees worldwide, UNFPA
billion by 2050 (from its 2005 level (the UN Population Fund) monitors
The estimates we have so far are no of 6.54 billion). Meanwhile, there is patterns in the growth and location of
real foundation for an appropriate an accelerating move to urban areas. the world’s population, and analysts
response either. The challenge now Already more than half of the world’s are investing an unprecedented
is to better understand how climate population lives in urban settings amount of computer power in
change could affect population and the growth rate of the urban modelling the world’s climate. We do
distribution and then to develop population is nearly double that of not need to start from scratch; we can
effective ways to address the possible total population growth. Clearly begin by applying existing knowledge
consequences of forced migration, it would be absurd to attribute the and expertise to the specific problem
such as social and economic entire urban drift to climate change of forced climate migration.
dislocation, delayed development but disaggregating the additional
or conflict. For that we need clearer role of climate change on existing We need to undertake more detailed
answers to some key questions: How rural-urban migration is very hard. and nuanced case studies of how, why
many people are likely to move as and where people migrate. We need
a result of climate change? Where Dealing with the lack of data: to understand what that means for
are they likely to come from and go Base-line data for current migration the welfare and prospects of the areas
to? How much warning will they flows in many of the developing they leave, the places they go to and
have? Will they be able to return? countries thought to be most the migrants themselves. We will need
vulnerable to climate change are to decide how long people should be
Better data on any or all of the patchy and incomplete. Nor is counted as forced migrants (one year,
questions above will help identify there much capacity in developing five years, one generation?) and what
the most vulnerable populations, countries or the international their needs are at different stages
the regions of greatest concern community to gather this kind of the resettlement process. Making
and the potential effects of climate of data, particularly for internal sense of it all will require a multi-
migration on development and displacement. Census data rarely disciplinary approach that combines
stability. Ultimately, better data include the kind of questions that perspectives from, at least, sociology,
would move the debate towards the would give a nuanced understanding economics, geography, computer
three questions of most relevance of the reasons behind internal modelling and climate science.
to policymakers: Who should be population movements. What
responsible for providing for climate- limited capacity exists is focused What impact climate-induced
induced migrants? For how long on tracking cross-border migration migration ultimately has on
will they typically need support? – which only captures a part of the development, security and human
And how much will it all cost? picture, given that the majority of well-being depends, of course, on
forced climate migrants are likely whether 20 or 200 million people are
The problem of prediction to stay within their own borders. displaced. And if we know what to
Developing more solid predictions expect, we can be better prepared.
will require a lot of hard number- Factoring in uncertainty:
crunching that is only now really Finally, although climate modelling Oli Brown (obrown@iisd.org)
starting. Those predictions are techniques have progressed is a Programme Manager with
complicated by at least four factors: dramatically over the past decade, the International Institute
we have not yet developed the for Sustainable Development
Disaggregating causality: modelling techniques that even (www.iisd.org).
Migrants’ decisions to leave their begin to adequately account for the
1. www.ipcc.ch
homes are influenced by a number impact of individual choice, the 2. Myers, Norman, ‘Environmental Refugees: An
of complex factors; deciding potential for international action and emergent security issue’, 13th Economic Forum,
May 2005, Prague. www.osce.org/documents/
causality between economic ‘pull’ the variability of future emissions eea/2005/05/14488_en.pdf
and environmental ‘push’ is often and meteorological scenarios.
10
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT FMR31
Defining
‘environmental migration’
Olivia Dun and François Gemenne
There is currently no consensus on definitions in this field of causes with those defined as refugees
study. The resulting variety of terms is not just confusing but by the 1951 Refugee Convention,
there are many helpful elements
unhelpful. of the process of defining someone
under the 1951 Convention that
Terms and concepts such as Since the 1970s, a clear divide has can contribute to defining people
environmental migration, climate existed between those forecasting displaced by environmental change.
change-induced migration, waves of ‘environmental refugees’
ecological or environmental and those adopting a more sceptical With respect to the question of
refugees, climate change migrants stance. Generally speaking, environmental migration, the focus
and environmentally-induced the former, who tend to isolate to date has been on somehow
forced migrants are found scattered environmental factors as a major proving that environmental factors
throughout the literature. The main driving force of migration, can be can be a single major cause for
reason for the lack of definition described as ‘alarmists’ and the displacement and migration.
relating to migration caused by latter, who tend to insist on the However, it is interesting to note
environmental degradation or complexity of the migration process, that in determining whether or not
change is linked to the difficulty as ‘sceptics’. Interestingly, alarmists someone is a ‘Convention refugee’
of isolating environmental factors usually come from disciplines it is not necessary to determine
from other drivers of migration. such as environmental, disaster whether or not the reason leading to
Another major hindrance lies in the and conflict studies, while sceptics persecution (political opinion, race,
confusion of forced versus voluntary belong almost exclusively to the nationality, religion or membership of
migration. Is environmental field of forced migration and refugee a particular social group) is the main
migration inherently a form of forced studies. Unsurprisingly, reports reason for displacement but whether
displacement? Can it take the form linking climate change with security or not it happened. Once this link is
of voluntary relocation? What about issues usually side with alarmists. established then the decision maker
government resettlement schemes can grant the person refugee status
in anticipation of or following an Just as most classical theories without considering whether or not
environmental disruption? Does on migration tend to ignore the reason was the main cause leading
the distinction between forced the environment as a driver to the persecution. Could/should the
and voluntary matter? These of migration, most theories on same be done for people displaced by
questions impact on typologies environmental governance ignore environmental factors? Is it enough to
of environmental migration and migration flows. Bridging this prove the causal relationship between
cannot be easily circumvented. gap should be the first priority of environment and displacement or
a research agenda in this field. should the causal relationship result
Aside from clear cases where in a certain degree of hardship
sudden-onset environmental Making progress or breach of human rights before
changes such as those resulting For academic purposes the interest there can be some form of long-
from earthquakes or floods lead to in developing a definition lies in term international protection?
forced displacement, the problem understanding the factors underlying
is that environmental migration migration decisions. While this Conclusion
commonly presents itself where is also of interest and concern to The need for a definition is a
there is a slow-onset environmental policymakers, they have an additional crucial step in the conceptualisation
change or degradation process (such need to know what rights such of environmental migration,
as desertification) affecting people a person is afforded. Without a and the development of policy
who are directly dependent on the precise definition, practitioners and responses to address these flows.
environment for their livelihood policymakers are not easily able to However, two main factors
and causing them livelihood stress. establish plans and make targeted driving the need for a definition
When environmental degradation progress. Migrants and displaced could hinder its development.
is a contributing but not major persons falling within the definition
factor, it becomes questionable are not clearly recognisable and Firstly, many scholars would like to
whether such migration can be may thus not receive appropriate establish environmental migration
called environmental migration. assistance. In this sense, while much as a specific field within migration
The increased complexity of of the scholarly debate and policy studies. There is a tendency to fence
current migration patterns also recommendations to date have off this area and consider it apart
contributes to the difficulty of finding rightly cautioned against mixing from classical migration theories, as
a consensus over definitions. those displaced by environmental if environmental migration were of
FMR31
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT 11
Returnee
refugees
building flood
protection
for Kalota,
Kapisa
UNHCR/J Redden
Province,
along
Panjshir
River,
Afghanistan.
another kind. More would be gained environmental migrant. Larger of the University of Sydney, Australia
by trying to integrate environmental definitions draw bigger numbers; (www.geosci.usyd.edu.au). François
factors into existing migration studies. there is a tendency to enlarge the Gemenne (F.Gemenne@ulg.ac.be)
definition so as to encompass as is a FNRS Research Fellow at the
Secondly, there is a widespread many people as possible. However, Centre for Ethnic and Migration
appetite for numbers and defining environmental migration Studies of the University of Liege
forecasts amongst journalists and too widely would be damaging for (www.cedem.ulg.ac.be) and at the
policymakers. In order to make those in need of the most protection. Centre for International Studies
their research policy-relevant, and Research (CERI) of Sciences
many feel compelled to provide Olivia Dun (dun@ehs.unu.edu) is a Po Paris (www.ceri-sciencespo.
some estimation of the number Research Associate at the United com). Both are involved in the
of those who are or may become Nations University Institute for EU’s Environmental Change and
‘environmentally displaced’. These Environment and Human Security Forced Migration Scenarios project
numbers, obviously, need to rely (UNU-EHS www.ehs.unu.edu) in (EACH-FOR www.each-for.eu).
on a clear definition of who is an Bonn, Germany and a PhD Candidate
Drowned in definitions?
Maria Stavropoulou
Refugees or migrants? In need of new forms of legal and play into the hands of those
protection or adequately protected by existing instruments? – governments – who wish to
classify all as economic migrants
No obvious or absolute answers. and thereby avoid their obligation
to provide refugee protection.
Some say that those displaced as a for refugees. And then there are
result of environmental or climate those who believe that any notion The fierceness of the debate strongly
change are refugees and advocate of the existence of ‘environmental recalls the one twenty years ago
for the expansion of the definition refugees’ and their need for refugee- about the existence, definition and
of a refugee in the 1951 Refugee like protection is at best exaggerated need for protection of the internally
Convention in order to include them; and at worst politically motivated displaced. In those days, there were
others call for the adoption of new and dangerous. According to them, those who vehemently opposed the
instruments to provide them with such ideas serve only to confuse ‘creation’ of this category of people
protection similar to that provided the traditional concept of a refugee because they considered it would
12
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT FMR31
provide an excuse to governments consequences of the disaster in ways The need for international protection
to contain them in their own that amount to persecution for one will be present whenever the
country. Yet the wide acceptance and or more of the reasons of the 1951 principles concerning protection
adoption of the Guiding Principles Refugee Convention. And, with the from arbitrary displacement are not
on Internal Displacement since advances of technology, people will respected. In these cases the people
1998, and the increasing recognition increasingly expect their governments of concern will be not just victims of
by governments, UN agencies and to take measures to protect them natural disasters but also arbitrarily
NGOs of the needs of the internally from the effects of disasters and to displaced, either internally displaced
displaced, and their competence and take measures to minimise their or refugees. Defining them further as
obligation to help alleviate some consequences. Conversely, there ‘environmental refugees’ or ‘climate
of them, tell a different story: that are many situations of gradual change refugees’ appears not to serve
bringing issues to the surface and environmental degradation, such as any purpose other than raising the
giving them a name may serve a good desertification, where people adapt profile of the issue. By extension,
purpose. The internally displaced are and may eventually migrate, and most ‘environmental refugee’
no longer invisible. While sceptics where the imperative to perceive situations do not seem to warrant
may still contend that refugee or treat them as refugees is not new international legal regimes.
protection has suffered globally in obvious. Last but not least, there is a
the last two decades, it remains to be plausible scenario according to which Two areas, however, seem to call
proven that this is due exclusively or sooner or later some states may for additional legal measures:
primarily to the ‘creation’ of the IDP disappear altogether, leaving their firstly, the ‘disappearing states’
category. The concern that refugee citizens not only without a home scenario3 and, secondly, a prohibition
protection would be weakened, and obliged to seek refuge elsewhere of deportation of people from
therefore, does not seem to be a good but also stateless. Perhaps this is the countries hit by a natural disaster
enough reason for rejecting the notion most compelling scenario from an who are not refugees under the
of ‘environmental refugees’ outright. international protection perspective. 1951 Convention yet should not be
returned for humanitarian reasons.
In fear of persecution? Inevitably the debate reverts to the
There is nothing inherent in the original question: Why did a person Conclusion
ordinary meaning of the word leave? Human migration rarely has Even though the term ‘environmental
‘refugee’ that would suggest that a single cause and it is now well refugee’ is legally inaccurate,
people fleeing flooded homes or established, theoretically as well it is more compelling than the
homes destroyed by an earthquake or as empirically, that voluntary and term ‘environmental migrant’
forest fire should not be considered forced movement are sometimes because it evokes a sense of global
as refugees. And it is also hardly hard to distinguish. Legally, however, responsibility and accountability,
contestable that such people should the distinction is important to as well as a sense of urgency for
not be sent back to their flooded make. When migration is forced, impending disasters. The term
or destroyed homes unless and and when this is combined with ‘climate change refugee’, on the other
until it would be safe for them to absence of protection by one’s own hand, seems to be going too far. It
do so, from an ethical if not always state, then international protection will generally be impossible to say
a legal point of view. However, considerations arise. And this is the whether a degradation in ecosystems
this is where any similarity with point where theoretical exercises and leading to displacement has climate
the refugees as defined in the generalisations come inevitably to a change as a major causative factor.
1951 Refugee Convention ends. halt. A case-by-case determination What is important is that the debate
of causes and needs is unavoidable remains on the right track, namely,
It is widely assumed that the great in the debate about ‘environmental that the paramount objective is not
majority of people who flee natural refugees’, as it is in the case of all a new refugee regime but genuine
disasters remain in their own refugees and displaced persons. efforts for better accountability,
country, and while they may be in international cooperation,
need of humanitarian assistance, The Guiding Principles on Internal environmental protection
they do not fear persecution. The Displacement offer a yardstick for standards and good governance.
paradigm of victims of natural considering when displacement
disasters being readily assisted by (not just internal) becomes a human Maria Stavropoulou (maria.
their governments has its exceptions. rights issue of international concern stavropoulou@gmail.com) has
Where they find themselves on the even in the case of causes linked to worked since 1993 with OHCHR and
other side of an international border, environmental damage. Guiding UNHCR. At the time of writing this
then international obligations of the Principles 5 to 91 describe the article she was pursuing independent
host country may come into play; parameters of the right not to be academic and consultancy work.
indeed many countries would offer arbitrarily displaced. These include The views in this article do not
some form of protection. Or they guarantees to be observed in case represent those of the UN or other
may qualify as refugees, in the legal displacement is unavoidable in agencies she is associated with.
sense, if their own governments order to minimise its effects, and
1. Guiding Principles online at www.brookings.edu/
are intentionally destroying their the particular obligation of states projects/idp/gp_page.aspx
environment, are discriminating to protect against displacement of 2. See article by Sternberg and Chatty, pp25-6
against them in the provision of groups with a special dependence 3. See article by Kelman, pp20-1.
assistance and/or are using the on and attachment to their lands.2
FMR31
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT 13
and where are they going to? coastline are at particularly high in February
risk of inundation and erosion. 2007 noted that
3. Why have people migrated? Vietnam is one
(i.e. what role has environmental In Mozambique, environmental of the countries
degradation or change played?) stressors (particularly flooding) which will be
contribute to migration and most severely
4. How does environmental displacement. People are displaced impacted by
degradation interplay with during the flood emergency period; potential sea-
other social, economic and following recurring flooding events, level rise.3
political factors in decisions people are relocated on a permanent Among the
about migrating? or semi-permanent basis. Along the most affected
Zambezi River valley, temporary areas will be
5. What might prevent people mass displacement is taking on the Mekong
from migrating when they permanent characteristics. The field Delta, one of the
are faced with environmental research did not detect large-scale most densely
degradation? (i.e. what assistance international migration resulting populated areas
was needed, what was lacking?) from the Zambezi River flooding or on earth.
14
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT FMR31
The Mekong Delta, as the ‘rice towards urban centres to influence migration. If environmental
bowl’ of the country, plays a crucial bolster livelihoods. conditions change to the extent that
role in helping Vietnam meet its certain regions experience systematic
development goals. Flooding is a People directly dependent on
■■ collapse in livelihood chains, then
regular annual occurrence and is an agriculture for their livelihood environmentally induced migration
integral part of the livelihoods of the (usually rice farmers) are could affect a larger number of people
population living in the area. Given particularly vulnerable to than currently observed in initial
the area’s fertility plus various factors environmentally induced fieldwork performed by the EACH-
relating to territorial expansion and migration. Successive flooding FOR project.
defence, Vietnam has a history of events can destroy crops and
government-initiated (re)settlement drive people to migrate in search Environmentally induced migration
and spontaneous migration towards of alternative livelihoods. occurs when ecological tipping points
the delta. Currently, however, are exceeded – points in time when
the Mekong Delta is witnessing a Migrants and experts noted
■■ environmental pressures mount
net outflow of migrants, due to a that human trafficking into and so threaten human security that
complex blend of economic, social, neighbouring areas was one people begin to factor environmental
and environmental factors. (extreme) coping strategy conditions into their migration
used by families exposed to decisions. What is still unknown is
Fieldwork in the Mekong Delta water-related stresses. how and to what degree mounting
indicates links between flooding environmental pressures will affect
and migration/displacement. A As part of a flood management
■■ and trigger migration. Neither is it
questionnaire sample collected and environmental sanitation known whether those who migrate
from Vietnamese migrants in strategy, the government is first are relatively well off or those
Cambodia indicated that half of currently undertaking planned with the greatest direct dependence
the migrants decided to migrate resettlement of people living in on the quality of the environment.
in part because of environmental vulnerable zones along river banks. Empirical research is needed to
problems. The findings illustrate establish the degree to which
some of the connections between Conclusions migration is a coping mechanism and
flooding and population movement: Environmental factors contribute how migration helps households to
to migration in the cases observed, secure desired standards of living.
During the flooding season,
■■ particularly through pressures on
people undertake seasonal livelihoods. Environmental factors Environmentally induced migration
labour migration and movement interact with multiple other drivers to has profound policy relevance for
Central Asia
François Gemenne and Philip Reuchlin
Three of the 24 EACH-FOR case-studies are in Central migration out of the Valley into
Asia – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – where other regions or countries. In the
southern provinces of Kyrgyzstan,
environmental challenges are triggering displacement. the population is regularly affected
by natural disasters and entire
The environmental challenges facing environmental degradation, climate communities are often displaced and
Central Asia include the industrial change and migration than the in need of resettlement to safer areas.
legacies of the former Soviet Union Ferghana Valley. The Valley has a There are also significant population
– contaminated land and pollution complex history, unclear property and refugee movements from an
of soils and rivers. The area is also rights over the land and access increasingly unstable Uzbekistan
prone to earthquakes and landslides to water, a varied ethnic mix and into the south of Kyrgyzstan.
and it is anticipated that the melting an extensive list of present or
of mountain glaciers will increase the potential environmental threats. Border regions between Uzbekistan,
frequency of floods and mudslides. There are an estimated 10.5 million Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan (where
The area has already seen significant people living in the Ferghana most pastures and grazing areas
changes in water usage. By 1991, for Valley, and a significant part of are located) are becoming a place
example, the level of the Aral Sea this population may potentially of tension. A shortage of land for
had fallen by about 15 metres, its be affected by forced migration. newcomers (and subsequent pressure
surface area had been halved and on forests) increases environmental
its volume reduced by two-thirds. Migration patterns in the Valley impacts. In addition, about 3,000
involve internal migration, cross- earthquakes are registered annually
Nowhere better exemplifies the border migration among the three in Kyrgyzstan. Floods and landslides
inter-twining relationship between nation-states sharing the Valley and are frequent in the Valley, and their
FMR31
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT 15
human security. Climate-related policy and legal frameworks in the section on Environmental
stressors combined with ecosystem need to address environmentally Migration, Social Vulnerability and
change (such as land degradation induced migration. Adaptation at the UN University
and water shortages) and rapid-onset Institute for Environment and
■■ensure adequate and appropriate
events (such as flooding and extreme Human Security (UNU-EHS) in
humanitarian response to
storms) already drive migration or Bonn, Germany (www.ehs.unu.edu).
avoid escalating crises
prompt national governments to plan 1. EACH-FOR is a two-year scoping project funded
for the relocation and resettlement ■■strengthen institutions and through the European Commission’s 6th Framework
Programme: www.each-for.eu. The UN University –
of affected populations. Government policies: the magnitude of future Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-
responses vary from giving incentives environmentally induced migration EHS) is one of seven partners in the project.
to mandating relocation, with mixed depends in part on longer-term 2. See www.each-for.eu/index.php?module=field_
research. For methodology, see Afifi and Warner The
results. Resettlement programmes environmental and development Impact of Environmental Degradation on Migration Flows
also have their costs and benefits: policies. Institutions must be across Countries Working Paper No. 5/2008. UNU-EHS,
Bonn. www.ehs.unu.edu/article:476?menu=94.
people are moved away from strengthened so that they can
3. Dasgupta S, Laplante B, Meisner C, Wheeler D
physical exposure to hazards but appropriately manage migration and Jianping Y, The impact of sea level rise on developing
may faced increased debt and loss linked to environmental change.4 countries: a comparative analysis, World Bank, February
2007: www.worldbank.org/reference/
of livelihoods after resettlement.
Koko Warner (warner@ehs.unu.edu), 4. These recommendations follow those discussed in
Renaud, Bogardi, Dun and Warner (2007), Control, Adapt
Recommendations Olivia Dun (dun@ehs.unu.edu) and or Flee? How to face Environmental Migration? InterSecTions
Marc Stal (stal@ehs.unu.edu) work No. 5/2007. UNU-EHS, Bonn.
■■build a strong scientific basis:
research is needed to accurately
identify, measure and characterise
environmentally induced migrants.
■■increase awareness: knowledge
about environmental degradation
and climate change can arm
governments, migrants and
potential migrants against human
security crises. Awareness can
help avoid maladaptation.
■■improve legal frameworks at the
regional and multilateral level:
Kyrgyz Valley.
data-collection capacities.
Ghana
Kees van der Geest and Richard de Jeu
Migration from northern Ghana is a strategy for dealing with If environmental degradation is
structural environmental scarcity rather than degradation. a prime driver of migration, then
one would have expected to see an
One of the problems in migration- If the environment is an important increase in migration at the time of
environment studies is the difficulty factor in explaining migration from the great Sahelian droughts of the
of establishing causal relations. In the West African interior savanna to 1970s and 1980s. Surprisingly, this
an EACH-FOR case study survey the moister forest and coastal zones, was rather a period of reduced out-
among 203 internal migrants one could reasonably expect the migration from northern Ghana.
from north-west Ghana, the vast propensity to migrate to be higher The 1970s and 1980s were also a
majority mentioned environmental a) in environmentally less well- time of widespread economic crisis,
reasons for leaving their homes.1 endowed areas and b) in times of political instability and high food
The respondents – settler farmers increased environmental scarcity. prices in southern Ghana. The
living in rural areas of Brong Ahafo To test these two hypotheses, adverse conditions in the South
Region in Central Ghana – said we carried out a cross-sectional made many decide to refrain from
they decided to migrate because of and a longitudinal analysis of migrating. In those years, many
scarcity of fertile land, unreliable migration and natural resources. migrants also returned to the North.
rainfall, low crop yields and/or The late 1980s and 1990s were a
food security problems. A minority Results time of environmental recovery in
mentioned non-environmental In examining the geographic relation the North and political stability and
reasons for migrating – lack of non- between out-migration propensities economic growth in the South. In
farm income opportunities, family and different indicators of scarcity this period, North-South migration
conflicts, witchcraft, cattle theft and of natural resources, we looked at increased again. Hence, political
the desire to be free and independent. four indicators of natural resources and economic forces seem to have
scarcity: rainfall, vegetation, rural more influence than environmental
The survey findings indicate that this population density and soil suitability push on migration flows.
group of migrants indeed experienced for agriculture. Our results indicated
a degree of environmental push. that, firstly, as expected, there was a Conclusions
However, such findings are not strong inverse relationship between The analyses show that migration
enough to adequately assess the precipitation and out-migration. propensities are higher in districts
environment-migration link. For Districts that receive less rainfall tend with more natural resource scarcity
example, respondents with low to experience more out-migration. and that migration did not increase
levels of formal education and Secondly, again as expected, there was in times of environmental stress in
poor access to information will not an inverse relationship between the the source areas of migration, due
mention certain underlying causes propensity to migrate and the amount to adverse economic conditions
of migration. Complex explanations of vegetation. However, the relation in the prime destination area.
of migration will be hard to distil is not as strong as with rainfall.
from this type of interviews The picture that emerges for northern
whereas the environment easily Thirdly, again as expected, densely Ghana is not one of distress migration
becomes part of local discourses on populated districts tend to have in the face of environmental
Northern migration because farmers experience higher out-migration rates. High rural disaster. The environmental driver
Ghana. environmental conditions every day. population density causes scarcity of migration from northern Ghana
of land for farming, one appears to be structural scarcity
of the prime motives for rather than degradation.
migrating mentioned by
Kees van der Geest
Gaps in protection still remain for those people displaced by only would it be binding upon
climate change within their own countries. signatories but it also increases the
scope of the protection found in the
The normative framework for of the debates surrounding the Guiding Principles (for example,
people displaced by the effects protection of the rights of IDPs. to include persons displaced as a
of climate change inside their result of a lack of development)
own country is better developed One debate concerns the definition and provides the AU with the right
than that for people displaced of internally displaced persons, to intervene in member states in
outside their country. Many of the a descriptive rather than legal order to protect displaced persons.
former are IDPs and their rights definition provided in the Guiding
protected by human rights law and Principles. Some commentators While the development of a raft
international humanitarian law as have argued that the description of national laws and policies
articulated in the Guiding Principles is too broad to be operational, addressing internal displacement
on Internal Displacement,1 whereas covering as it does a wide spectrum is an important step, there still
few of the latter qualify for of causes of internal displacement remains an implementation gap,
refugee status and international including conflict, natural disasters in most cases because of a lack of
law does not currently protect and development projects. On the capacity and in some notorious
their status in other countries. other hand, the effects of climate situations because of a lack of
change may result in internal political will. How to plug this
While a priority is therefore to displacement that does not clearly implementation gap remains an
define the rights of people displaced fit even this broad definition – important debate to resolve. Once
outside their country by the effects for example, those moving pre- again, displacement caused by
of climate change, the prospect emptively or whose movement climate change may extend this
of growing numbers of people is triggered by economic factors. implementation gap. For example,
displaced internally should also While these people would be while it may be possible to plan
be a catalyst to address gaps and protected by human rights law, the for and mitigate the effects of
implementation challenges in the Guiding Principles would not apply. slow-onset hazards associated
normative framework that applies Is it appropriate to distinguish with climate change, it is much
to them. The rights of the majority them from other internally harder to predict and prevent the
of the 25 million people already displaced persons? Is there reason effects of rapid-onset hazards.
internally displaced by conflict to suppose that they will be any
and the many millions more less vulnerable than other IDPs? Finally, perhaps the fundamental
displaced by natural disasters and debate that underlies the protection
development projects are currently Even though the laws and of IDPs today and in the future
poorly protected. The effects of norms articulated in the Guiding is how to realise in practice the
climate change will inevitably Principles are derived from responsibility to protect. The
increase their number and further binding conventions, treaties and tremendous and unnecessary
test protection in law and practice. agreements, the Guiding Principles suffering that resulted from
themselves are not binding. A the reluctance of the Burmese
Some of those moving as a result of second debate which may be worth government to cooperate and the
the effects of climate change – for revisiting is whether it is time to unwillingness of the international
example, as a result of a general negotiate a binding convention. community to intervene after
deterioration in living conditions There are sound reasons not to. Cyclone Nargis is a clear reminder
because of regular flooding – will Negotiating a convention is a time- of the political challenges that need
challenge the current distinction consuming process; there is unlikely to be overcome to protect the rights
between voluntary and forced to be significant consensus around a of the internally displaced, whatever
migration and may find themselves convention that ultimately concerns the cause of their displacement.
without protection. And in an issue of state sovereignty; even
contrast to those displaced by binding conventions sometimes Khalid Koser (k.koser@gcsp.ch)
conflict, many of those displaced have little impact in reality; and the was Fellow in Humanitarian
by the consequences of climate Guiding Principles are increasingly Affairs and Deputy Director of the
change may never be able to being incorporated into national Brookings-Bern Project on Internal
return home because their places laws and policies, despite their Displacement (www.brookings.
of origin have been destroyed or non-binding character. At the same edu/projects/idp.aspx) and is now
inundated. New approaches to time, a draft AU Convention for a Faculty Member, Geneva Centre
durable solutions will be needed. the Protection and Assistance of for Security Policy (www.gcsp.ch).
Internally Displaced Persons in
1. Guiding Principles online at www.brookings.edu/
This may be the time to engage – or Africa may signal a new direction, projects/idp/gp_page.aspx
in some cases re-engage – in some at least at the regional level. Not
18
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT FMR31
An integrated approach to climate change demands that Millions upon millions of people
human rights and adaptation strategies are pursued have lost their homes and lands due
to conflict or because of investor
hand-in-hand. greed, poorly planned development
Taking a human rights approach order that people everywhere are able and natural disasters such as
to climate change, grounded in the to live safely and securely on a piece earthquakes, floods and tsunamis.
principle of the inherent dignity of of land, to reside within an adequate Sadly, far too few have seen either
the human person, implies that it and affordable home with access to their rights respected or benefitted
all basic services and to from a slow, gradual improvement in
feel safe in the knowledge their housing and living conditions
that these rights will once the circumstances leading to
be fully respected, their displacement have ended or
protected and fulfilled. altered. This should be a reminder for
us to prioritise human rights-based
Indeed, the normative strategies to address the displacement
framework enshrining dimensions of climate change. The
these rights is track record of most countries in
considerable, constantly treating victims of displacement
evolving and ever as rights-holders, in particular
expanding. A very HLP rights-holders, is very poor.
considerable body of
international human In many disaster settings, those
rights laws and standards who have been displaced return
exists which can be used home once conditions permit and
UNHCR/J Perugia
to the homes from which they human rights standards on adequate issues into both their legal mandate
were displaced. In situ re-housing housing, should be provided to and their day-to-day operations.
efforts have proven to be the most everyone as a matter of rights.
efficient and effective means of facilitate the evolution of
■■
providing relief to victims in other However, climate change-induced international law: changing
post-disaster settings. International displacement is likely to present new the 1951 Convention might not
standards now support the rights and greater challenges. The impact work but a new Protocol to
of disaster-affected populations to and consequences of permanent, the Convention may well yield
return to and recover their former non-reversible displacement caused results. One important outcome
homes and lands should they so by climate change and rising sea of the expanded attention to
wish. Those involved in facilitating levels have yet to be fully grasped the human rights implications
such return need to work to: by states and their peoples. Already, of climate change could be the
island groups such as the Carteret adoption of a new international
remove any discriminatory
■■ Islands, Tokelau and Vanuatu have standard on these issues. Such
inheritance and property begun to permanently resettle people a standard, or perhaps even a
ownership laws that may because of land lost to rising seas and composite group of standards
prevent the equitable transfer salinisation of fresh water supplies. which together would constitute
KHRG
of property to survivors, Clearly, these and other cases are international principles on the
particularly women and girls, only the small beginnings of what relationship of climate change
and ensure that women and girls is predicted to be the largest global and human rights, could be of
do not suffer direct or indirect mass migration in human history. considerable assistance to national
discrimination as a result of the governments seeking guidance
relief and reconstruction efforts Short-term policy responses, of on addressing these challenges.
course, would be similar to those
ensure that all reconstruction
■■ already in place following many augment the Global Adaptation
■■
efforts take fully into account conflicts and disasters, and consist Fund: established during the Bali
the needs of especially largely of shelter programmes, forced meetings in 2007, this Fund faces
vulnerable or marginalised migrant camps and settlements, and a shortfall of at least US$9.75
groups including ethnic other short-term measures. Long- billion. Now is not the time for
minorities, children, the elderly, term policy responses should be the wealthy world to be stingy.
the disabled, the chronically grounded more comprehensively
ill and households headed by within an HLP rights framework, develop rights-based measures
■■
single parents or children involving remedies such as the of land expropriation and invest
provision of alternative homes and in land banking: governments
avoid the active prevention of
■■ lands, compensation and access throughout the world should be
return and land-grabbing by public to new livelihoods, based – one encouraged to review domestic
officials or criminal networks would hope – on lessons learned legislation as it relates to questions
about permanent resettlement from of expropriation of land. Climate
ensure properly resourced
■■ previous efforts around the world. change-induced displacement
and well-coordinated housing/ will put immense pressure
shelter provision programmes Conclusions on cities and the slums that
Given the challenges presented surround them. Governments
encourage full community
■■ by current and future climate should identify unused land for
participation in the change-induced displacement, possible future use to resettle
reconstruction process there is a pressing need to: people and their communities
should this become necessary.
help local authorities to realise
■■ develop adequate domestic
■■
that housing reconstruction can institutional frameworks: in Scott Leckie (director@
often be the most long-term February 2008, for example, displacementsolutions.
element of any recovery process local councils in Australia org) is Director and Founder
and to plan accordingly. were instructed to carry out Displacement Solutions (www.
comprehensive climate change displacementsolutions.org).
Fortunately there is greater planning exercises in all
understanding that relocation or communities threatened by
resettlement should only occur as a inundation. This and other such
last resort, and only after all possible examples could act as good Displacement Solutions (DS) manages
alternatives have been thoroughly models for other nations wishing a Global HLP Rights Expert Registry
explored. When resettlement is the to successfully mitigate and adapt in order to provide assistance –
only option available and all other to the climate changes ahead. expertise, tools and human resources
avenues have been considered, – on the full spectrum of housing,
there is growing acceptance of the develop adequate international
■■ land and property rights issues
principle that permanent relocation institutional frameworks: in post-conflict and post-disaster
should never result in homelessness states and UNHCR need to situations. For more information, see
and that alternative accommodation, systematically examine the www.displacementsolutions.org
which complies with international implications of incorporating these
20
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT FMR31
Island evacuation
Ilan Kelman
Examples of entire
island countries which
are threatened by sea-
level rise are Kiribati,
the Maldives and
Tuvalu. Additionally,
if ice sheets collapse,
much of their land could
end up under water.
Ilan Kelman
With the expectation of
tropical cyclone tracks
changing while storms
might become more
frequent and more severe, islands Depending on the exact impacts After the timing of migration has
which had previously experienced on specific islands, permanent been determined – or left to extreme
few extreme events might have to displacement may be the only events to decide – the second decision
deal with them more regularly. viable long-term option. Severe is where people should go in order
environmental change has led to create a new community. Two
Chemical, rather than to islander displacement in the options exist. They could abandon
geomorphological changes, could past. Approximately 700 years their identity and their community
also reduce low-lying islands’ ago, sea-level fall and regional and integrate elsewhere. The
habitability. Oceanic absorption changes in the Pacific climate 12,000 Tuvaluans still on Tuvalu,
of atmospheric carbon dioxide forced many Pacific islanders to for example, could easily disperse
is leading to ocean acidification,1 abandon their settlements. among the millions of Sydney, Tokyo,
damaging coral reefs which in Los Angeles or other large cities.
turn exposes islands to increased Decision making
wave energy while changing the If an island community decides Rather than losing a culture,
nature of near-shore fisheries. that displacement or evacuation of language and identity, however,
an entire island is an appropriate island communities could instead
For marine resources, the possible option, the first decision is the be re-created. Resettlement on land
impacts are uncertain. In some timing of that migration. (especially islands) similar to, but
places, numbers might decline and more secure than, their current
species might become extinct but Should the evacuation happen as location would be preferable but
many others could migrate. Some soon as possible, before severe might not be feasible because
islands might gain more plentiful impacts of environmental changes are most low-lying areas would
fish or other marine resources, while felt? This would enable migration to suffer similar fates as the islands
FMR31
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT 21
being evacuated. As well, many rather than re-created, how do the been many island evacuations, for
potential island candidates for answers to these questions change? example, related to volcanic activity.
re-creating island communities However, there are differences
are protected as environmental, Security questions also emerge between evacuation because of
tourist and/or scientific havens – regarding locations where islanders volcanic activity and evacuation
or are uninhabitable due to their are resettled. Could a country claim as a result of global environmental
size or resource constraints. a security threat from potential change. Most islanders evacuated
future sovereignty demands if an after a volcano starts erupting expect
Such resettlement could also require entire island country population is the evacuation to be temporary; in
another state to cede territory. For settled there? Could resettlement many cases, they return home even
the Pacific region, Australia and be used to reduce enmity and to earlier than recommended. For global
New Zealand are usually suggested galvanise international cooperation environmental change, many islands
as the most likely candidates to in solving environmental issues? are expected to experience such severe
provide land. Other possibilities (Studies in disaster diplomacy that and irreversible changes that return
could be Indonesia, the Philippines, have investigated this last point would not be possible for centuries
the Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, conclude that such opportunities to come. Temporary displacement
the US or Japan. Another option are usually squandered.2) is very different from leaving one’s
would be to create new land land, home and identity for ever. We
(perhaps through land reclamation) These issues are not unique to need to learn from mistakes made in
but this would involve legal islands. Many coastal settlements the past, especially regarding who
ramifications – such as delineating could suffer similar displacement makes decisions and who pays.
the new state’s territorial waters. for similar reasons. Although non-
island coastal settlements have an There is time now to draw on the
Sovereignty ‘inland’ to which they can move, experience of previous environ-
Whether existing land or new some islands also have that option, mentally induced displacement, both
land is used for resettlement, more especially larger hilly islands such as island and non-island. Precautionary
decisions have to be made concerning Puerto Rico and Fiji’s largest island, planning now would be prudent,
levels of sovereignty or autonomy. Viti Levu. Yet that would still result rather than reacting after it is too late.
Should sovereign states and non- in significant changes, both for the
sovereign territories be entirely re- people who must move and for the Ilan Kelman (ilan_kelman@
created or should these governance people already living ‘inland’. hotmail.com) works for the Center
regimes be adjusted? There are for International Climate and
different options, including: Learning from experience Environmental Research, Oslo
Island evacuation due to global (CICERO www.cicero.uio.no).
■■ joint access to an island’s environmental change may be
1. www.royalsoc.ac.uk/document.asp?id=3249
resources, as is the case of unique in living memory but island 2. www.disasterdiplomacy.org
Svalbard in the Arctic evacuation due to environmental
change is not new. There have
■■ a level of autonomy involving
parallel and complementary
justice systems, such as those
for indigenous people in Resources on climate change and displacement
Canada and New Zealand A new Resource Summary on climate change and displacement is now
online at: www.forcedmigration.org/browse/thematic/climate-change/
■■ a level of autonomy involving, for
example, parallel currency systems. The summary,
produced
Once a governance model is by Forced
approved by all concerned parties, Migration Online
many practical and ethical questions (of the Refugee
remain. Who pays for the move and Studies Centre),
the construction of new communities provides a
or new land? How will any territorial selection of
or jurisdictional disputes be resolved? key web-based
How will those to be displaced resources plus
retain significant control over these contact details
aspects? If an island country is of many of the
entirely evacuated but the islands organisations
are submerged only at the highest working in
tides, who owns the fishing rights in this field.
the surrounding seas? Could those
rights be sold, with oil and other
mineral resources potentially being Also available is a Research Guide on the same subject, online at:
more valuable than fish? If a state is www.forcedmigration.org/guides/fmo046
disbanded because of displacement
22
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT FMR31
inequality. Third, the nation state be a factor in increasing population induced conflict under the guise
may not be the appropriate level at dislocation and potential conflict. of religious, ethnic or civil conflict.
which to examine these questions. It has been and will continue to
Twenty-five countries – of which the be difficult to identify any simple
Likelihood of conflict majority are in Africa – have been or straightforward links between
Where environmentally induced identified as falling in the highest the environment, environmentally
migration and conflict might occur is risk category of civil conflict in the induced migration and conflict.
slightly more easily answered than next two decades, and the likelihood
whether it will occur and to what continues to increase over time. All William Clark (wclark@geog.ucla.
extent. Demographic stress (and these countries have low cropland edu) is a professor in the Department
possible conflict) can be categorised availability per person, half of of Geography at the University
on a scale from very high risk (where them have fresh water availability of California, Los Angeles (www.
there is a large ‘youth bulge’, rapid problems and all are ranked amongst ucla.edu). This article is an edited
urban growth and low cropland or the poorest nations in the world. version of a longer article of the
freshwater availability), high risk same title prepared for the German
(large youth bulge and either rapid Conclusion Advisory Council on Global Change
urban growth or low cropland/ Environmental stress is likely to (WBGU), published in Climate
freshwater availability), low risk (low be linked to conflict indirectly but Change as a Security Risk, Earthscan
cropland or fresh water availability) significantly. Its impacts will come 2008, London and Sterling VA.
to no risk (none of these factors). directly from
This process identifies Africa and, declining resources
to a lesser extent, the Middle East as and conflicts over
primary areas of potential conflict and those resources
tension arising from rapid population and from the
growth and environmental stress. tensions created
There are other ‘hot spots’ in Asia by populations
and northern South America. that are displaced
or who move Armed
men from
Conflicts arising from environmental seeking improved
the Sudan
change are much less likely than life chances in Liberation
conflicts generated by religious, other regions.
IRIN/Derk Segaar
Movement
ethnic and other rivalries. That said, However, most Army in
it is clear that environmental stress of the conflicts Gereida
town, south
in the ‘high risk’ nations is likely to will embed Darfur,
environmentally Sudan, 2006.
What dangers does climate change pose to societies most southward in search of greener
vulnerable to changes in local environmental conditions? pastures, competition with Fur and
other farmers was inevitable. Climate
Tribes and other groups have been has amplified the effect of human change not only forces migration but
in conflict in Darfur for as long as behaviour on the environment. Small- can also trigger conflict. However,
history records. These conflicts have scale but widespread farming and the environmental degradation
largely been a function of resource cattle grazing by the groups in Darfur and corresponding migration in
competition, relative deprivation and have accelerated desertification. Darfur were not sufficient conditions
dwindling subsistence opportunities Environmental degradation in for conflict. Conflict is rather the
in the face of rapid population Darfur is not a new process, nor result of environmental pressures
growth. Perhaps it was this history is it even one that has accelerated together with the breakdown of
of resource conflict that led the UN in any meaningful way in the past social structures designed to mitigate
Secretary-General to identify climate ten years. What is it then about traditional resource conflict.
change as one of the root causes of environmental change in Darfur
the Darfur conflict. The effects of that has led to conflict now? In the early 1970s Sudan’s President
climate change on natural systems Nimeiri took steps to consolidate
have been well documented, and Today’s Darfur conflict has an power in Khartoum. One such
humans will inevitably be affected. analogue in the 1987 Fur-Arab measure was to abolish the tribal-
war which was one of resource based Native Administration in
The increase in the length of drought competition; as drought and Darfur that had served as a venue for
cycles in Darfur combined with the corresponding famine sent the largely aggrieved parties to air complaints
southward expansion of the Sahara Arab pastoralists of North Darfur and build compromises that mitigated
24
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT FMR31
tribal conflict. This action contributed As the climate continues to change, degradation will occur slowly but
to a cataclysmic breakdown in and local environments degrade consistently over long periods of time.
traditional dispute-reconciliation to such an extent that people feel It is these situations that are the most
mechanisms in the region. By the they must move elsewhere in neglected, and arguably the most
late 80s and early 90s, Khartoum’s order to survive, the first step is to dangerous types of environmental
strategy of dividing groups in Darfur address the underlying need for migration. As in Darfur, changing
climate coupled
with changing
migration patterns
threatens to bring
groups of people
into conflict,
potentially creating
a cycle of violence
and displacement
that can easily
spread, intensify
and exacerbate
local environmental
conditions. It is
easier to integrate
hundreds of people
displaced as a result
of environmental
degradation than
it is to resettle,
return or integrate
hundreds of
thousands as a
result of violent
Destroyed conflict created
village of by inadequate
Kamungo responses to the
just east of
Kabkabiya
initial migration.
IRIN
town, North
Darfur state. It is for this reason
that special care
had led to an unmanageable situation migration. Migration as a result of should also be taken to build up those
that, combined with resource scarcity, climate change is less a result of the local social institutions that allow for
had created a situation where – underlying change than a reflection of dialogue and dispute reconciliation
with a history of violent interaction the ability of people and communities where migration patterns make such
between tribes vying for resources to adapt. The deployment of disputes more likely. The causes of the
– there were no mechanisms to programmes designed to maximise Darfur crisis can be traced not only
address the underlying disputes. In environmental resources may mean, to environmental degradation and
1991, the Zaghawa tribe of Darfur for example, the difference between the overwhelming of local resources
pleaded to President Omar al- having to migrate in the face of but also to social degradation and
Bashir to address the breakdown decreased seasonal rainfall, and being the inability or unavailability of local
in the social order, stating: “The able to adapt to short-term cycles dispute reconciliation mechanisms
Khartoum government has created made more severe by climate change. to handle environmentally driven
a major crisis by meddling with the migration. As climate change
system of native administration.” International aid providers should continues to alter local environments,
work with states to identify the international community must
Support to adaptation those groups at greatest risk of be prepared not only to provide the
There is no doubt that desertification environmentally forced migration means for communities to develop
and drought altered the migration – not just those where conflict is in order to adapt but also to provide
patterns of pastoralist tribes into new an obvious risk – and develop new host communities with the social
areas. There is also no doubt that the long-term aid and development and political resources to integrate
altered migration patterns, combined programmes to allow people to live those who have no choice but to
with more permanent migration in a way that is at least consistent find greener pastures elsewhere.
by people in North Darfur looking with traditional standards of living
for viable land for subsistence, led without having to migrate. Scott Edwards (scottxedwards@
to conflict. The Janjawid militia gmail.com) was the Country
were almost certainly enticed with Just as climate change occurs over Specialist for Sudan for Amnesty
promises of viable land belonging long cycles, much of the migration International, USA (www.
to those they would force to flee. resulting from environmental amnestyusa.org) from 2004 to 2008.
FMR31
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT 25
In 2008 the theme of the UN Permanent Forum on They made the case that pastoralists’
Indigenous Issues (UNPFII1) was ‘Climate Change, Bio-cultural dependence on the environment
made them particularly vulnerable
Diversity and Livelihoods: the stewardship role of indigenous to climate change effects such as
peoples and new challenges’. reduced biodiversity and new
livestock diseases. As a result, there is
Although climate change and the unpredictable precipitation, more tribal conflict – often spiralling
related issue of bio-cultural diversity windstorms and increased flooding into cross-border disputes – over
have been major concerns in the decreasing resources and increased
developed and industrialised world, land degradation, limited water
■■ settlement as livestock are lost due
it is only with events like the UNPFII supply, reduced vegetation and to physical conditions and loss of
that the threats which climate change decreased productivity of pastures ecosystem resilience. The delegates
increased herder poverty. Pasture viability of livelihoods. With physical environmental change lie beyond
biomass, number of plant species and change comes social transition, seen their lands and their actions.
vegetation growth have decreased. in reduced opportunities for women,
The resulting poor economic dispossession and the settlement While the UNPFII event brought
conditions are driving herders from of pastoralists. This is perceived as together mobile indigenous people
the land in search of alternative the ‘new imperialism’ brought on to confront these issues, it also
income sources such as small-scale by climate change and government highlighted the need for decision-
mining. High transport costs, lack disregard for mobile peoples’ issues. makers – intergovernmental
of government support and limited organisations, government officials
market organisation for products are The difficulties facing mobile and corporations – to acknowledge
all working against sustainability indigenous people were not limited the special needs of mobile peoples.
of livelihoods in Mongolia. to developing regions. The Navaho In a formal statement, Mossess
member of the delegation from Ndiyaine, a Maasai from Tanzania,
This negative picture was reaffirmed Arizona in the US talked about nature called for greater awareness of
in a short documentary film from Iran being out of balance in his region. As their conditions, support for their
which highlighted severe droughts water sources dry up and traditional concerns, recognition of their
– such as have not been seen for 100 ways are lost, fewer than 1% of his rights, strengthening of customary
years – and strange weather and tribe continue their mobile lifestyle. institutions and the active promotion
wind patterns that are drying out Conflicts over water and business of mobile indigenous peoples’
wetlands and grasslands. Mobile in pastoral areas (such as coal involvement in identifying and
tribes in Iran are unable to migrate mining), reduced land availability addressing the impacts of climate
to summer grounds as mist and and livestock numbers, and warming change, both globally and locally.
fog that once nourished pastures weather patterns also cast doubt
have been absent for several years. on the viability of pastoralism for Troy Sternberg (troy.sternberg@
The Iranian representative stressed future generations of Navaho. qeog.ox.ac.uk) is a doctoral student
that current conditions are more in the School of Geography,
extreme than any in living memory. Out of their hands University of Oxford; Dawn
Nomadic and mobile peoples were Chatty (dawn.chatty@qeh.ox.ac.
The delegate representing India’s 100 traditionally found beyond the uk) is Deputy Director of the
million mobile indigenous people boundaries of settled society, using Refugee Studies Centre, University
emphasised the move away from adaptive strategies to encourage of Oxford (www.rsc.ox.ac.uk).
traditional livelihoods among his environmental resilience and
1. www.un.org/esa/socdev/unpfii/
peoples. Lost access to range and reduce risks. Climate change 2. www.danadeclaration.org
increasing political and economic now challenges these livelihood 3. www.wamip.org
pressure for pasture land have greatly approaches but the major causes of 4. Funded by the International Fund for Agricultural
reduced herd size and thus the Development.
The essential sectors of humanitarian relief will all see major A significant number of the world’s
changes in the way that assistance is delivered. population currently exposed to
water-related hazards will experience
Water is undoubtedly at the heart Those countries that currently have increased problems, and total
of the climate change debate. The the most severe water shortages and numbers affected will certainly
principal associated effects are all lowest sanitation coverage are most increase with the effects of climate
water-related: sea temperature and at risk. Of the 47 nations regarded change. The number of people living
sea-level rise, increased frequency and as being either water stressed or in water-stressed river basins is
intensity of precipitation and flooding, water scarce in 2007, 25 are regarded expected to increase from around
more severe heat-waves and droughts, as facing a high risk of armed 1.4 billion in 1995 to between 2.8 and
and increased intensity of tropical conflict or political instability as a 6.9 billion in 2050. It is estimated
cyclones. The other major expected consequence of climate change.1 that 250 million Africans will suffer
impact of climate change – increased increased water stress by 2020.2 It
land temperatures – will also have is also estimated that in developing
severe ramifications in terms of water According to UN Secretary-General countries, the incidence of diarrhoea
resources and quality. The need for Ban Ki Moon in December 2007: will increase by approximately 5%
clean water and effective sanitation “The consequences for humanity per °C increase in temperature.3
will become even more important as are grave. Water scarcity threatens These figures all underline the fact
water-related climate change impacts economic and social gains and is a that small increases in global risk
such as flooding and drought begin to potent fuel for wars and conflict.” factors can impact and potentially
affect an increasing number of people. displace large numbers of people.
FMR31
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT 27
In the East and Horn of Africa, contingency planning, preparedness and Paul Spiegel (Spiegel@unhcr.
refugee-hosting areas – such as measures and emergency response org) Chief of Section in UNHCR’s
Dadaab in north-eastern Kenya have traditionally been undertaken. Public Health and HIV Section.
and Jijiga in eastern Ethiopia – are Addressing the assistance needs of
sited in semi-arid, water-scarce the displaced in the face of climate The views expressed are those of the
areas. In recent years these areas change requires a holistic approach authors and do not necessarily reflect
have seen significant changes that is built on the principles the views of UNHCR or the UN.
to their climatic patterns, with of Integrated Water Resources
1. Smith, D, Vivekananda, J (2007) ‘A Climate of Change:
lower rainfall and hence slower Management, poverty reduction the links between climate change, peace and war’,
replenishment of underground programmes and national socio- International Alert.
2. UNDP Human Development Report 2007/2008, Fighting
water levels. This in turn increases economic development strategies. Climate Change: Human Solidarity in a Divided World.
the need for improved monitoring http://hdr.undp.org/
and protection of groundwater. The Aidan Cronin (aacronin@gmail.com) 3. Campbell-Lendrum D, Woodruff R (2007) Climate
change: quantifying the health impact at national
high population density on these is a former Water and Sanitation and local levels, WHO Environmental Burden of
vulnerable aquifers will surely pose Officer, Division of Operational Disease Series No. 14. http://whqlibdoc.who.int/
publications/2007/9789241595674_eng.pdf
major water challenges in the future. Services, UNHCR. Dinesh Shrestha
4. Shrestha, D, (2000) ‘Bio-engineering to mitigate water-
(shresthd@unhcr.org) is Senior induced hazards’, Environment in UNHCR, Vol 5, Issue 2,.
Many refugee camps are increasingly Water and Sanitation Officer www.unhcr.org/protect/PROTECTION/3b039e1d7.pdf
Rural-urban
migration in Ethiopia
James Morrissey
Environmental change in the highlands of Ethiopia other than environmental change are
contributes, in a variety of ways, to encouraging migration important in driving migration.2
out of rural areas. The first story is that of a migrant
who left the countryside because
Discussion of the potential for people to escape livelihoods which of limited availability and poor
environmental change to drive depend on the availability of water productivity of land. Without a means
migration has often assumed but is also a strategy for managing to access sufficiently productive land,
migration to be an inevitable outcome drought. To this end permanent he decided to migrate to Weldiya, a
of adverse environmental change. migration to towns is undertaken nearby town. He did so in the hope of
While this may be true in the case by certain members of a household finding work which would allow him
of permanent inundation due to a who settle in urban areas so as to support an independent household
rise in sea levels, the link between to attain the capital necessary for of his own. Now twenty-nine years
environmental change and migration the start-up and running costs of old, he has been living in Weldiya for
in the case of desertification is far less equipment (such as irrigation pumps) five years. He currently makes a living
clear. Research in a specific area of the which will mitigate the impact of weaving baskets and mats which he
north-eastern Ethiopian highlands1 increasingly variable rainfall patterns sells in town. Despite his success in
shows that environmental change in the highlands to which the rest of starting his own household he remains
does, in some cases, trigger migration. their household remains exposed. disillusioned with his life in Weldiya.
However, ascribing sole agency to
environmental factors is likely to Lack of availability of sufficiently The second story is that of a farmer
be overly simplistic as it ignores productive land is the most common living in the highland zone on the
the importance of social factors in cause of rural-urban migration. escarpment who is unwilling to
mediating the decisions made by Environmental changes put stress on migrate to the urban areas despite
individuals whether or not to migrate. rural livelihoods but it is not sufficient acknowledging that environmental
conditions in the rural areas are
becoming increasingly difficult: He
thinks that his household was better
off in the past. He also thinks that
his land has become less productive
as a result of the increasingly erratic
nature of the rainfall which, as
well as reducing crop production,
exposes the soil to erosion by wind
and rain, which in turn decreases
soil productivity. He thinks that
droughts have become worse, with
the rainfall becoming increasingly
unpredictable and falling at the
“wrong time of year”. As a response,
he says, people have tried planting
their crops at different times of year;
however, this has not worked and
people have had to resort to simply
James Morrissey
What is immediately noticeable able to find work in the urban areas. This shows the impossibility of
from these two accounts is that He thinks that the main reason for providing a grand narrative, or
while both cite impoverishing the poor productivity of the land in simplistic model, of environmentally
environmental changes, one has the rural areas has to do with the induced migration in which farmers
been willing to migrate while the availability of water which he ascribes experiencing adverse environmental
other has preferred to change his to the erratic rains which now fall change migrate out of those areas
current livelihood strategy – with for only two months of the year. He (and livelihoods) affected by
varying degrees of success – in an says that he likes the rural areas and environmental deterioration.
attempt to adapt to the changing would like to go back but feels that
environmental conditions. What we this will not be possible unless some The other major structural factor
see is that household and individual form of mechanised irrigation system influencing decisions to migrate is the
responses to environmental change is put in place which can guarantee degree to which ethnicity has been
are conditioned by the degree water to farmers in the area. politicised in Ethiopia, culminating
to which migration constitutes a in ethnic federalism. This policy –
possible strategy for the individual. From these accounts it is apparent where the country is divided up
This may not seem a particularly that a multitude of factors need to into a number of self-determining,
Alaskan communities’
rights and resilience
Robin Bronen
Forced migration due to climate change will severely Each community is involved in
challenge the resilience of communities forced to migrate an ad hoc process with state and
federal government agencies that
as well as the capacities of local and national governments. are struggling to provide protection
to the communities while they
In Alaska, climate change is evident. relocate. The disappearance of sea- grapple with the need to work out
Temperatures across the state have ice and sea-level rise are creating a relocation process. Government
increased by between 2 and 3.5 stronger storm surges that are agencies have responded through
degrees Celsius since 1974, arctic eroding the land on which they are their traditional methods of erosion
sea ice is decreasing in extent and situated. These villages have active control and flooding prevention
thickness, wildfires are increasing subsistence lifestyles and have but these adaptation strategies have
in size and extent, and permafrost is existed on the coast of Alaska for proved ineffective in protecting
thawing. These ecological phenomena thousands of years. Environmental the communities from a rapidly
are creating a humanitarian crisis studies indicate, however, that a deteriorating environmental habitat.
for the indigenous communities catastrophic climatic event could
that have inhabited the arctic and submerge all communities within the The 2006 Alaska Village Erosion
boreal forest for millennia. Four next 15 years. There is no sustainable Technical Assistance Program –
Alaskan indigenous communities future for these communities in established by the US Congress
must relocate immediately and their present locations – and there – evaluated the different costs
dozens of others are at risk; is no higher ground to which they associated with erosion control versus
meanwhile, government agencies can move. Their only alternative relocation. It also identified a number
are struggling to meet the enormous is migration but, despite the of critical governance issues that
new needs of these communities. consensus that these communities need to be addressed if relocation
must relocate, no government occurs, noting that there is currently:
The communities of Shishmaref, funding has been specifically
Kivalina, Shaktoolik and Newtok allocated to begin this process. ■■ no government agency with
on the west coast of Alaska must authority to relocate communities
Tony A Weyiouanna Sr, a resident of Shishmaref
FMR31
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT 31
■■ no funding specifically governance issues identified in the during resettlement. State and federal
designated for relocation 2006 Alaska Village Erosion Technical governments should be obliged to:
Assistance Program report, the
■■ no criteria for choosing Workgroup recommended that one ■■ allow the affected community
relocation sites state agency lead the relocation effort to be a key player in the
and act as the coordinating agency relocation process
■■ no governmental organisation that with responsibility of maintaining
can address the strategic planning federal, state and tribal partnerships. ■■ ensure culturally and linguistically
needs of relocation and the logistics The report, however, does not appropriate mechanisms for
of decommissioning the original detail the governance structure or participation and consultation
community location, including jurisdictional authority that will
hazardous waste clean-up and allow the agencies to work together. ■■ ensure families and tribes remain
preservation of cultural sites. together during relocation
Newtok is the most advanced in its
In 2007, the Governor of Alaska relocation efforts, having identified a ■■ keep socio-cultural
created the Alaska Climate Change relocation site and acquired the land institutions intact
Sub-Cabinet to implement a climate through an act of Congress. The state
change strategy for the state. An planner facilitating the Workgroup is ■■ protect subsistence rights
Immediate Action Workgroup – an coordinating the work of the dozens and customary communal
advisory group to the Sub-Cabinet of agencies involved with Newtok’s rights to resources
– was tasked with identifying the relocation. She has no jurisdiction
short-term emergency steps that to require other agencies to join in ■■ safeguard rights to safe and
state government needs to take to her relocation efforts but federal and sanitary housing, potable
prevent loss of life and property due state agencies are working with the water, education and other
to climate change in the communities Newtok Traditional Council and basic amenities
that must relocate. Both state and willingly engaging in the relocation
federal government representatives process. However, none of these ■■ implement sustainable
co-chair the Workgroup; the multi- agencies has a funded mandate to development opportunities
level governance structure is unique. relocate communities endangered as part of the relocation
by climate change; there is no lead process (and thereby enhance
In April 2008, the Workgroup issued agency to create and coordinate community resilience).
its recommendations, in which a relocation strategy; and several
erosion control and community of the agencies are bound by legal Definition
evacuation plans are central. The guidelines that throw up serious An accurate definition of this
Workgroup also recommended that obstacles. For example, the Alaska displacement category is essential in
funding be allocated to communities Department of Transportation order to ensure that the permanent
to begin a relocation planning designated with the task of building relocation of communities only occurs
process. In recognition of the complex airstrips and the Alaska Department when there are no other durable
of Education designated with solutions. ‘Climigration’ has been
building schools are unable to move coined as a word to describe this
We and our grandfathers have noticed forward with these projects at the type of displacement. Climigration
that the water level has been rising, the relocation sites because regulations occurs when a community is no
seasons getting shorter, thinner ice, require that an existing community longer sustainable exclusively
warmer winters, summers and shorter with a minimum population be at the because of climate-related events and
springs. The loss of land through site before any infrastructure is built. permanent relocation is required to
erosive action and increasing risk protect people. The critical elements
to property and lives have caused a The Newtok Traditional Council are that climatic events are on-
dangerous situation for the community is a small local tribal government going and repeatedly impact public
of Shishmaref and the culture of its that has only limited capacity to infrastructure and threaten people’s
people. The only viable solution is to coordinate the relocation work of safety so that loss of life is possible.
relocate the community off the island dozens of federal and state agencies
to a nearby mainland location that and administer and obtain funding A definition is also critical so that
is accessible to the sea, suitable for needed for the relocation process. the design and implementation
the continued subsistence lifestyle of of institutional frameworks
the community, and to preserve the The humanitarian crisis in Alaska of humanitarian response are
culture and integrity of the community. clearly demonstrates the need appropriate. Agencies that have
The constant anxiety caused by the to create clear principles and traditionally provided ‘disaster relief’
erosion is an excessive burden carried guidelines based in human rights and erosion control, for example, will
by all members of the community. The doctrine that can serve as a model continue to engage in these activities
‘no action’ option for Shishmaref is for other regions. These would help until it is determined that relocation
the annihilation of our community. ensure that the social, economic must occur in order to protect the life
and cultural human rights of and well-being of the community.
Tony A Weyiouanna Sr, individuals and the communities At this point, the community,
resident, Shishmaref forced to migrate are protected along with tribal, state and federal
during displacement as well as
32
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT FMR31
governments, will shift their focus measures; and viability of access Strategies to temporarily evacuate the
to create a relocation process. to transportation, potable water, villages, rebuild public infrastructure
communication systems, power and erosion control structures
Failure to recognise the signals of and waste disposal. The sooner and then return the population to
ecosystem changes will critically a community and governmental original locations no longer afford
impede a community’s capacity to agencies recognise that relocation adequate protection. Permanent
adapt and may lead to social and must occur, the sooner all-important relocation is the only durable solution
economic collapse. Government funding can be diverted from for Kivalina, as for other Alaskan
agencies will also be hampered disaster relief to relocation. indigenous communities. The
if they are unable to identify the experiences of these communities
early ecological warning signals In 2006, the Army Corps of Engineers should be used to guide the creation
requiring a community to relocate. built a new seawall to protect the both of principles that secure their
Early indicators of community community of Kivalina. The day human rights and an institutional
vulnerability may include: repetitive after the dedication ceremony, a response that ensures their safety.
loss of community infrastructure; storm ruined a critical component of
imminent danger; no ability for the seawall, leaving the community Robin Bronen (rbronen@yahoo.
community expansion; number of vulnerable and exposed. In 2007, com) is the executive director of the
evacuation incidents; number of the community was forced to Alaska Immigration Justice Project
people evacuated; predicted rates evacuate when a storm threatened (www.akijp.org) and a National
of environmental change; repeated the lives of community members. Science Foundation EPSCoR fellow.
failure of disaster mitigation
Health challenges
Manuel Carballo, Chelsea B Smith and Karen Pettersson
There are no easy solutions to the emerging implications for Although many of the health
health of climate change-related migration. implications of climate change-related
displacement will probably be felt in
Among the obvious diseases that flooding are areas where malaria, ‘the South’, they will not be unique to
will plague health planners, health dengue and chikungunya fever are developing countries. North America
care workers and policymakers in endemic. Population movements and Europe could well experience
an era of climate change-related from these areas to other parts further growth in the number of new
migration, some of the most likely of the same countries or across migrants and refugees and, if so,
diseases are mosquito-borne. borders, where higher temperatures could see new or more pronounced
Malaria and dengue have always and more humidity might favour public health challenges. Most parts
moved with people, and in some mosquitoes, could lead to a of Western Europe have already
countries the circular labour significant spread of these diseases. seen the pattern of new cases of
movement of people between the tuberculosis change with increased
countryside and cities has given Changing water distribution migration from Eastern Europe and
birth to new urban reservoirs of patterns in the wake of repeated other areas where the prevalence
both these diseases. Dengue fever flooding, together with an increase of TB has remained high or even
in Rio de Janeiro has been linked to in temperature and the forced grown with the AIDS epidemic.
rural-urban migration as well as to mass movement of people, could
urban environmental degradation. also have far-reaching implications The movement of people from poorer
Even temperate regions – where one for water-related diseases such parts of Europe and developing
would not normally expect to find as schistosomiasis. This already countries has similarly increased
malaria and dengue – have seen a affects an estimated 200 million the prevalence of hepatitis A and B
growing number of cases linked people around the world and in other European countries where
both to tourist travel and to the causes high rates of morbidity and it had become far less problematic.
migration of people from countries mortality.1 Water development In many parts of Europe, moreover,
where these diseases are prevalent. projects in a number of countries new cases of HIV and other sexually-
have amply demonstrated transmitted infections are more and
Chikungunya fever, which was how easily schistosomiasis more concentrated in and around
reported in Italy for the first time can be spread by population newcomers from countries where
in 2007, is now expected to become movement. Other less obvious prevention of HIV has been less
more frequent elsewhere too. Some means of spread could occur too; successful than in most western EU
of the regions of South-East Asia in Brazil schistosome-carrying countries. In North America migration
and Central and South America snails have been unwittingly has similarly been associated
likely to be most affected by rising moved from rural to urban with changing health profiles and
sea levels or by more freshwater communities on fishermen’s nets. challenges. The seasonal movement of
FMR31
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT 33
agricultural labourers from Central only their entry more difficult but not only will there be little if any
and South America, for example, also their insertion and eventual ‘herd immunity’ but also medical
where up to 13 million people are integration. Experience has time and practitioners may be unfamiliar
living with Chagas disease, has been again shown that where migrants with the symptoms and treatments
linked to an estimated 500,000 new are less well accommodated, they are that are required. Conversely, many
infections in parts of the US such likely to be less socio-economically other people may be forced to move
as Louisiana, southern Texas and productive and more likely to suffer to areas where they will be exposed
California, where many of these from a variety of physical and to health threats they have not
seasonal workers go to find work. psychosocial problems. These are previously had to confront, and for
the same migrants who tend to be which they have neither preventative
The spread of communicable diseases directed towards the least attractive nor therapeutic experience. Because
is not the only health challenge areas of cities, to the worst and many of the regions that will be most
that will result from increased cheapest housing that is also furthest affected are located in economically
migration. Everywhere there is from essential health care services. disadvantaged countries where
growing evidence that the processes The lives they lead and the work public health resources are already
of (even temporary) migration and they do offer little health security. lacking, the health challenges of
re-settlement are drivers of non- Earning poor wages and with little potentially massive displacement
communicable diseases such as job stability, while still struggling of people from one region to
cardiovascular conditions and Type to send badly needed remittances another call for far more attention
II diabetes. Not only do people on home, migrants often fall into a spiral than has been given to date.
the move seem to be more at risk of of poor nutrition, weakened health
these diseases but their outcomes and vulnerability to new diseases. Manuel Carballo (mcarballo@icmh.
are also worse than those of non- ch) is the Executive Director of the
migrants, a reminder that, for Conclusion International Centre for Migration,
whatever reason, migrants rarely Preparing for the health implications Health and Development (www.
have the same type of access to of climate change-induced migration icmh.ch) in Geneva, Switzerland;
health care services as non-migrants will require a mapping of the Chelsea B Smith (chelseabsmith@
and often remain on the margins of epidemiological profile of the areas gmail.com) was a Research
access to care that could help them. that may become ‘sending’ areas and Development Assistant at
and of those that could become ICMHD; and Karen Pettersson
Psychosocial problems also arise ‘receiving’ ones. Some people will (karenpettersson@gmail.com) was
because migration is always stressful. be forced to move from areas with a a Technical Officer at ICMHD.
It typically involves breaking family history of certain diseases to places
1. www.who.int/schistosomiasis/en/
ties, leaving without any assurance of where such diseases are uncommon;
success in finding
work and not
knowing if and
how receiving
societies will
respond. In many
cases the routes
migrants take
and the ways in
which they reach
their destinations
are fraught with
risks to health. In
a political climate
of resistance and
lack of sympathy
for newcomers,
the trauma of
movement could
become even
more profound
and far-reaching
than it already is.
Countries
everywhere have
WFP/Darlyne Jeanty
begun to raise
both virtual and
real barriers Haiti after
to newcomers, Hurricane
making not Gustav, 2008.
34
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT FMR31
Pastoralists in Kenya
Mohamed Adow
The pastoralist community of northern Kenya has been and Horn of Africa, particularly to
ravaged by both droughts and floods. neighbouring Somalia and Ethiopia.
But these cross-border avenues are
In the past 100 years, Kenya recorded Pastoralists traditionally move from now closed because of the geopolitical
28 major droughts, four of which one area to another in search of situation. People can no longer
occurred in the last ten years. These pasture and in search of water for move where they need to for better
droughts have had a devastating their livestock. They will move with opportunities. Their only option is
impact on people’s lives and their livestock in response to drought, to live on the periphery of urban
livelihoods. For the three million so every time there is climatic stress – centres as internally displaced people.
pastoralists of northern Kenya, which manifests itself in failure of the Waiting for emergency aid is now
climate change is today’s reality. rains – pastoralists will traditionally their main system of livelihood.
migrate, following the rains. With
The way of life that has supported the increasing frequency and severity There are certainly many other factors
them for thousands of years is of the droughts, pastoralists’ land that bring about poverty in the region,
falling prey to the impact of climate can no longer sustain them and that make people vulnerable to these
change. It is estimated that close people have been forced to migrate. climatic conditions, but the one that
to one million have already been is now tipping things over, that is
forced to abandon pastoralism. Migration comes now in two forms. bringing the people’s livelihoods
Firstly, some completely drop to their knees, is climate change.
Along an 800-kilometre stretch of out of the pastoralist lifestyle and
road to Mandera in northern Kenya, system, moving to urban centres to Mohamed Adow (madow@christian-
a number of new villages have seek casual work or to depend on aid.org) is from northern Kenya and
sprung up. These villages are now gifts from relatives – the first line is currently working with Christian
hosting the very first ‘environmental of defence against climate stress. Aid in East Africa. This article is an
refugees’ in northern Kenya Secondly, many move near to urban edited version of a presentation made
whom, in our language, we call centres to seek emergency food at a conference on Climate Change
‘pastoralist dropouts’. In this region aid. These are people who would and Forced Migration organised
livelihoods today are almost entirely traditionally have migrated in search by the Institute for Public Policy
dependent on emergency food aid. of better opportunities – water Research in London, 29 April 2008.
and pasture – to elsewhere in East
Change in Peru
“… the Incas enforced sustainable From Adapting to Climate Change:
handling of the forest and applied Practical Perspectives, GTZ, 2008.
severe penalties to those that Online at www.gtz.de/en/dokumente/
destroyed it. My father told us that en-climate-adaptation.pdf
Thomas J Mueller, SPDA/DED
With the prospect of more extreme weather events, it capacities, the low-lying and heavily
makes sense to strengthen the efforts of governments and populated deltas of Asia and Africa,
and the small and low-lying islands.
communities to reduce disaster risks.
Poor countries are disproportionately cyclones or earthquakes. Protective While the control and reduction
affected by natural hazards, owing to mangroves are cleared for shrimp of greenhouse gas emissions is a
their intrinsically greater vulnerability farms, flood-buffering wetlands fundamental objective at the centre
to hazards and comparatively low are filled for industrial zones, of the current climate change debate,
capacities for risk reduction measures, and rainfall-absorbing forests are there also looms the problem of
while richer countries tend to sustain stripped from steep and unstable adapting to the inevitable changes
large economic costs. Over the period hillsides. The increase in disasters that we face as a result of past and
1991-2005, developing and least can be seen as a red light, a warning ongoing emissions. Adaptation may
developed countries suffered 884,845 of unsustainable development. be an unfamiliar concept but its
deaths and $401 billion in economic methods and tools look very similar
losses, while OECD countries suffered The risk of disasters is often neglected to those of disaster risk reduction –
61,918 deaths and $715 billion in until revealed by a major event. risk maps, improved zoning of land,
economic losses. Disasters can disrupt Then people are shocked and ask enforcement of building codes, safer
a country’s development progress how such devastation could possibly hospitals and other critical facilities,
by decimating production and occur. Enquiries are held and public better early warning systems,
diverting scarce national resources officials are held to account. This is a accessible insurance schemes, and
to rebuilding activities, and are thus time when lessons can be learned and programmes to enable communities
a threat to the achievement of the advances made. In this technical age, to assess and manage their own risks.
Millennium Development Goals. it is assumed that we can engineer There are many examples of disaster
Grenada’s losses of $919 million as our way out of problems but this is risk reduction initiatives that have
a result of Hurricane Ivan in 2004 often not the solution. The reasons high benefit-cost ratios and therefore
were equal to 2.5 times its GDP. for the inadequate state of the levees offer no-regrets actions for adaptation.
Disasters create social and economic protecting New Orleans and for the
stresses that can result in significant reportedly disorganised response of Action plans and frameworks
dislocation and migration. the authorities to the accurate and In this way, we have a new
timely warnings about Hurricane opportunity to simultaneously
Of great concern is the evidence that Katrina are now being revealed reduce disaster risks and adapt to
the reported numbers of disasters by sober analysis to be essentially climate change. Happily, climate
approximately doubled over the social and political in nature. This is change negotiators have begun to
last 20 years, and that the reported a common lesson worldwide. Social think along these same lines. The
economic costs grew at an even factors also strongly differentiate the Bali Action Plan’s directions for
faster rate. Hurricanes Katrina, Rita impacts of disasters. In particular, adaptation call for the consideration
and Wilma in 2005 together caused gender and age are important risk of: “…risk management and risk
record reported losses of $166 billion. factors, for example with studies reduction strategies, including risk
It is tempting to blame climate showing greater death rates sharing and transfer mechanisms
change, which is already affecting for women in the Indian Ocean such as insurance; and disaster
the weather, but of more critical tsunami and for elderly people in reduction strategies and means to
importance is the growing exposure both the 2003 heatwave in Europe address loss and damage associated
and vulnerability of communities and Hurricane Katrina in 2005. with climate change impacts in
to natural hazards, especially developing countries that are
for the poor, and the resulting Climate change is likely to result particularly vulnerable to the
accumulation of latent disaster risk. in more extreme events of the type adverse effects of climate change.”2
associated with disasters, such as
Certainly, the view of the experts is heatwaves, changes in weather This convergence is easier said than
that disaster risks are increasing.1 patterns, longer and more intense done, as the two issues of disaster risk
More people inhabit risky places drought, more intense rainfalls, and and climate change are usually dealt
and risky dwellings, undertaking more frequent coastal and inland with as separate policy processes and
large-scale activities that raise risk, flooding. The most vulnerable areas by different government departments.
like settling on flood plains, storm- are the existing areas of vulnerability Ministries responsible for climate
exposed coasts and landslide-prone to hazards: Africa, on account of change policy, such as ministries of
hillsides, and building schools and its rain-fed subsistence agriculture environment, will need to talk with
apartments that will collapse in and its generally low risk reduction those responsible for disaster risk
36
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT FMR31
IRIN
after Cyclone
Nargis.
The Hyogo Framework elaborates five
priorities for action, which are based now using the Hyogo Framework disaster risks globally. It is now time
on a careful review of past successes to structure and guide their own that we scaled up the level of action
and failures in reducing disaster risks: strategies and programmes on to achieve this important goal.
disaster risk, for example the Asian
Ensure that disaster risk reduction
■■ Ministerial Conference on Disaster Reid Basher (reid.basher@un.org) is
is a national and local priority Risk Reduction, the World Bank’s Coordinator for Policy Development
with a strong institutional Global Facility for Disaster Risk at the UN International Strategy for
basis for implementation. Reduction and Recovery4 and the Disaster Reduction (www.unisdr.org)
World Meteorological Organization5. in Geneva.
Identify, assess and
■■ The five priorities offer a strong basis
monitor disaster risks and for developing concrete measures For more information, please explore
enhance early warning. both for disaster risk reduction and the following websites: www.emdat.
for adaptation to climate change. be, www.un.org/climatechange/,
Use knowledge, innovation and
■■ www.ipcc.ch, www.unfccc.int, www.
education to build a culture of The factors that make us vulnerable to unisdr.org, www.preventionweb.net
safety and resilience at all levels. natural hazards are often of our own
1. UN/ISDR, 2007. Disaster Risk Reduction: Global Review
making, arising from how we exploit 2007. See www.preventionweb.net/globalplatform/first-
Reduce the underlying risk factors.
■■ the land and how we build our houses session/docs/session_docs/ISDR_GP_2007_3.pdf
2. unfccc.int/resource/docs/2007/cop13/eng/06a01.
and our cities. But we can easily factor pdf#page=3
Strengthen disaster preparedness
■■ disaster risk into our planning and 3. www.unisdr.org/eng/hfa/hfa.htm
for effective response at all levels. management and make use of readily 4. www.gfdrr.org
available knowledge, tools and policy 5. www.wmo.int
Many individual organisations and frameworks – particularly the Hyogo
inter-governmental mechanisms are Framework – to substantially reduce
FMR31
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT 37
Internal displacement
in Nigeria
Ujah Oliver Chinedu
Climate change in Nigeria is having a very real impact factors. However, a National Policy
and needs urgent attention. on Disaster Management is currently
being drafted. In order to be effective
Nigeria is experiencing increasing In the face of global warming there it must include measures to:
incidence of disease, declining has been a paradigm shift in disaster
agricultural productivity, increasing management towards disaster risk ■■ ensure disaster management is
number of heatwaves, unreliable or reduction, preparedness and response backed up by national legislative
erratic weather patterns, flooding, within the context of the Hyogo and financial frameworks with
declining rainfall in already desert- Framework for Action (HFA).2 clear, definite roles for all levels
prone areas in the north causing of governance as well as for
increasing desertification, decreasing Nigeria is working to meet the HFA’s local communities and NGOs
food production in central regions, five priorities for action.3 Eight years
and destruction of livelihoods after being set up, Nigeria’s National ■■ facilitate collaboration with
by rising waters in coastal areas Emergency Relief Agency (NEMA) relevant meteorological and
where people depend on fishing has achieved great improvements in hydrological institutions for
and farming. Climate change is terms of structures put in place for developing early warning systems
making some land uninhabitable and managing disasters. However, it is and hazard prediction/forecasting
affecting water supplies – threatening obvious that in many cases there has
people’s basic needs and triggering been poor execution of responsibilities ■■ use knowledge, innovation and
displacement. One of the easiest ways by the authorities at state and local education to build a culture of
of adapting to climate variability government levels. Most flood safety and resilience at all levels
in Nigeria is internal migration. victims do not get compensation
or relief during flood disaster; if ■■ advocate and campaign for
EM-DAT – the international it comes, it usually comes too late proper planning for land-use and
Emergency Events Database1 – shows or with strings attached. Even in house building at community,
that in 2007 about 5,650 people in the face of threatening disasters, local, state and national levels.
Nigeria were displaced by floods, there are no coordinated efforts to
with 34 deaths reported. These floods evacuate the population. Although Ujah Oliver Chinedu (oliverujah@
contaminated unprotected water these floods occur almost annually, gmail.com or oliverujah@yahoo.
sources, exposing people to the risk local, state and federal governments com) is a Research Fellow with
of water-borne diseases, severely appear to take no precautions, the African Institute for Applied
damaged crops and disrupted the and their interventions are usually Economics (AIAE www.aiaenigeria.
planting season (which certainly reactive rather than preventive. org) in Enugu State, Nigeria.
affected the 2007 harvest). Some areas
1. www.emdat.be
of the country were cut off, preventing Among the shortcomings of the Act 2. www.unisdr.org/eng/hfa
more than 5,000 children from establishing NEMA are its silence 3. See previous article by Basher, pp35-6.
attending school and hindering access on the roles of local government in
to health and other social services. disaster management, non-listing of
disaster and emergency matters in the
In 1999 and 2000, more than 200,000 1999 Constitution of the country, and
people were displaced by floods in the inability of the federal government
Niger State. In 1988, flooding in Kano to impose any structure or directives
State displaced more than 300,000 on any state or local government. As a
people. About a million people consequence, disaster and emergency
living in the low-lying plains of the matters are treated as peripheral.
River Niger are considered to be
at risk. Flooding is recorded every When benchmarked against the
year in all the states along the Niger guiding principles of the HFA,
River and its tributaries, frequently Nigeria seems far from achieving
causing disasters. Moreover, two- disaster resilience for vulnerable
thirds of Bayelsa State and half communities. For instance, policy
of Delta State are inundated by commitment to and investment in
devastating floods for at least a disaster reduction are still low; there
quarter of each year. In districts are no early warning mechanisms; Brochure and key Hyogo documents
under water, schools and markets and no efforts are being made to are online at www.unisdr.org/hfa
are suspended for weeks at a time. tackle or reduce underlying risk
38
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT FMR31
Existing human rights obligations already require states to many buildings. The mudslide was
take measures to mitigate the risks of natural or man-made triggered by the Gerhozhansu River
that runs through the town and was
disasters – including those due to climate change – and thus the last in a long series of similar
to prevent displacement. events. Tyrnauz had been protected
by various mud retention dams
The European Court of Human The Öneryildiz case1 deals with the but these were badly damaged by
Rights recently clarified these consequences of a methane explosion particularly heavy mudslides in 1999
obligations when it had to address in a public rubbish dump, used and never repaired, despite warnings
the question as to whether and by several city districts, situated by the state metrological institute.
when deaths caused by a man-made on a slope overlooking a valley Two weeks earlier the agency had
or natural disaster can amount to in Ümraniye, Istanbul. Ten slum informed the local Ministry for
a human rights violation by the dwellings in the immediate vicinity of Disaster Relief about the imminent
state, thus obliging it to compensate the dump were engulfed by the refuse danger of a new disaster and had
the survivors. The Court’s case- and 39 people were killed. Some two requested that observation points be
law allows us to conclude that years previously, experts had warned set up in the upper sections of the
failing to take feasible measures the authorities of the risk of such an river and that an emergency warning
that would have prevented or explosion but no steps were taken – be issued if necessary. None of the
mitigated the consequences of either to burn off the gases that had proposed measures were taken.
foreseeable disasters amounts to built up in the waste disposal site or
a violation of the right to life and to evacuate neighbouring houses. The day before the main disaster, a
therefore incurs the responsibility flow of mud and debris hit the town
of the state under international law. In the Budayeva case,2 in July 2000 and flooded some of the residential
Two judgments of the European a mudslide swept through Tyrnauz, quarters – but without causing any
Court of Human Rights, the a town situated in a mountainous casualties. The local authorities
Öneryildiz case and the Budayeva region in the central Caucasus, ordered the evacuation of affected
case, are particularly relevant. killing several people and destroying parts of the town but did not stop
A landslide
destroyed
30 homes
and left 24
IRIN/Brennon Jones
people dead
and many
missing, the
Philippines,
September
2008.
FMR31
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT 39
evacuees returning to their homes of the danger, had failed to take the evacuate potentially
■■
the following day when the mud necessary safety measures and had affected populations
level lowered. It was then that the permitted dwellings to be built in the conduct criminal investigations
■■
main mudslide hit the town and danger zone. In the Budayeva case, and prosecute those responsible
at least eight people were killed. a causal link was found between for having neglected their duties in
serious administrative flaws that case of deaths caused by a disaster
Human neglect kills impeded the implementation of compensate surviving relatives of
■■
In both cases, relatives of those killed necessary measures and the deaths victims killed as a consequence
tried to obtain compensation from of the victims. of neglecting these duties.
the domestic authorities. Their claims These human rights standards are
were rejected by the courts which Conclusion
of great practical import as they
argued that the causes of death were Other covenants and conventions empower actual and potential
natural and could not have been contain the same obligation to victims of natural disasters to
foreseen or prevented; the state could protect life and the approach taken demand that authorities take the
therefore not be held responsible. by the European Court of Human necessary measures to prevent
The relatives then appealed to the Right is likely to be followed in deaths. For humanitarian agencies
European Court of Human Rights other jurisdictions in similar cases. they highlight the relevance
which found that both countries were In summary, the individual right of a rights-based approach
in violation of their duty to protect to life and the corresponding state to disaster management.
life, having failed to take preventive obligation to protect life require that,
measures, and ordered them to with regard to natural disasters, Walter Kälin (walter.kaelin@oefre.
pay substantial compensation. including those caused by climate unibe.ch) is the Representative of the
change, the relevant authorities must: UN Secretary-General on the Rights
The Court based its findings on the of IDPs. Claudine Haenni Dale
recognition of a duty to protect life enact and implement laws
■■ (rsg.idps@gmail.com)is focal point
against the consequences of disasters dealing with all relevant aspects on natural disasters of the IASC
by reaffirming that the right to life of disaster risk mitigation Protection Cluster Working Group.
“does not solely concern deaths and set up the necessary
resulting from the use of force by mechanisms and procedures 1. European Court of Human Rights, Öneryildiz v.
Turkey, Application 48939/99, judgment of 30 November
agents of the State but also […] lays take the necessary administrative
■■ 2004.
down a positive obligation on States measures, including supervising 2. European Court of Human Rights, Budayeva and
others v. Russia, Applications nos. 15339/02, 21166/02,
to take appropriate steps to safeguard potentially dangerous situations 20058/02, 11673/02 and 15343/02, judgment of 20 March
the lives of those within their inform the population about
■■
2008.
3. Budayeva case, §§ 128-129
jurisdiction” and stressing that “this possible dangers and risks
positive obligation entails above all
a primary duty on the State to put in
place a legislative and administrative
framework designed to provide Climate change persecution?
effective deterrence against threats
The 1951 Refugee Convention has come under attack for not catering for today’s
to the right to life.”3 While the Court
problems of generalised violence, natural disasters and mass migration. Importantly,
in the Öneryilziz case recognised
‘persecution’ is not defined in the Convention, and there is certainly room for evolution
such a duty in the context of risks
of the concept. Serious or systematic human rights violations are normally considered
created by industrial and other
to amount to persecution. Could one eventually talk of climate change persecution?
“dangerous activities”, it expanded
Who, in that case, would be the persecutor(s)? The state that directly fails to protect
this approach to cover natural
its citizens from the impacts, and/or the states that are the most responsible for the
disasters in the Budayeva case.
climate change? This sort of reasoning may lead to innovation in the development of
international norms. We have already seen litigation against the biggest polluters – most
In implementing this obligation to
prominently, the Inuit case against the US1 – based on human rights and concepts of
protect, states have considerable
joint liability.
flexibility with regard to the
operational choices which they Furthermore, the Convention definition covers situations both where the state does not
must make in terms of priorities and provide protection and where someone is persecuted but the state does not protect
resources. However, the Court made them adequately or at all. If a particular ethnic, religious, national, social or political
it clear that a state becomes liable group is discriminated against and left to live in an area prone to environmental
for deaths if they have occurred degradation or sudden disasters, and the government does not protect them through,
because the authorities neglected for example, adaptation schemes, one could argue that some of them may become
their duty to take preventive refugees because of persecution on one of the recognised grounds. There may also be
measures when a natural hazard cases of more direct persecution related to the environment whereby persecutors use
had been clearly identifiable and environmental destruction to undermine people’s livelihoods.
effective means to mitigate the
Vikram Odedra Kolmannskog (vikram.odedra.kolmannskog@nrc.no), Legal Coordinator
risk were available to them.
for the Norwegian Refugee Council (www.nrc.no)
In the Öneryildiz case, Turkey had 1. See www.earthjustice.org and article by Robin Bronen on pp30-2. For climate change law and
breached this obligation because the jurisprudence in general see www.climatelaw.org
What humanitarians
need to do
Jenty Kirsch-Wood, Jacob Korreborg and Anne-Marie Linde
Until recently, the humanitarian community had largely already vulnerable areas. This will
ignored the problem of climate change, thinking that reduce the capacity of these areas
to support human populations.
mitigation – the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions –
would minimise the need for adaptation to the effects of However, the picture is not
climate change. Events appear to be proving us wrong. entirely bleak. Over the past two
decades, while the number of
It is now clear that humanitarian The geographic area at risk from recorded disasters has increased
preparedness and response to flooding is expanding, placing new, significantly so too has disaster
extreme weather events and often less prepared areas at risk. resilience. When communities are
other changes are a small but Between December 2006 and March prepared, they are less likely to be
extremely important emerging 2007, the coasts of Madagascar and permanently displaced in the face
component of the climate change Mozambique were
adaptation debate. Two trends are hit by five successive
of particular humanitarian concern. cyclones, several
of which affected
First, climate change is increasing the same areas and
the frequency and intensity of caused multiple
extreme natural hazard events, waves of population
particularly floods, storms and movement. In the
droughts. Nine out of every ten last 20 years the
disasters are now climate-related.1 recorded number of
Second, climate change is altering disasters caused by
the morbidity patterns of diseases floods has increased
such as malaria and dengue fever by 300% – from
that are major killers in emergency about 50 to more
settings. Trends such as sea-level than 200. In terms
rise are of critical importance over of humanitarian
the longer term but will have less response, floods and
of an immediate humanitarian storms now trigger
impact within the current planning the bulk of sudden-
cycles of relief organisations. onset international
disaster responses.
Humanitarian expertise lies in Of the 26 UN Flash
preparing and responding to Appeals issued
hazard-related disasters, conflict and since January 2006,
situations of forcible displacement. 18 have been in
Climate change will act as a response to floods
‘threat-multiplier’, exacerbating and cyclones.
humanitarian need in each of these
core areas of our work. Climate The intensification
change is rapidly becoming a of climatic extremes
WFP delivers
key contributing factor – though associated with
food aid
after cyclone
not the sole cause – of increased climate change
Ivan hit humanitarian need. It exacerbates will also increase
Madagascar existing human vulnerability and both the likelihood
in February environmental degradation, which and geographic
2008.
in turn threatens to intensify the range of drought.
struggle for access to, or control While drought
of, scarce resources – potentially itself does not necessitate increased of a hazard event. Well planned
increasing the likelihood of migration humanitarian response, when initiatives for environmental
and armed conflict. The level of combined with vulnerability it can protection, land-use planning,
existing human vulnerability is likely result in ‘slow-onset’ disasters. natural resource management
to be the determining factor in the Intensified periods of drought and settlement development can
distribution of future humanitarian combined with unsustainable land substantially reduce disaster risks.
need associated with climate change. use will intensify desertification in
FMR31
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT 41
livelihoods. In most situations of this wholesale land clearance for charcoal David Stone (david.stone@
type, people are provided with only making and agriculture must be proactnetwork.org) is Director
the most meagre levels of support expected to have longer-term negative of ProAct Network, an NGO
– on a one-off basis. Families trying consequences for such regions, for concerned with the environmental
to rebuild their lives and livelihoods the people who may once again live ramifications of human displacement
are often unable to make ends meet there as well as for the environment. (http://proactnetwork.org).
and may have no option but to turn
to environmental exploitation as a
source of revenue and income.
As agencies scramble to catch up with this issue and be seen to be ‘responsible’,
there is a risk that some basic requirements will be overlooked or deliberately set
Many communities in northern
aside. Amidst the flurry of international discussion and activity, the people who
Uganda are currently in this situation,
are likely to have to bear the brunt of the consequences of climate change hardly
being unable to afford fuel and food
figure. They are rarely being consulted as to their situation, their needs or possible
prices, and with restricted access to
options which may well shape their future well-being. They are not being enabled
safe drinking water. While waiting for
or encouraged to enter the global debate. Part of the reason why they are ignored
their first harvest to mature, people
relates to the level at which dialogue and decisions are taken and resources
are turning to illegal charcoal making
allocated. Another and more chilling reason, however, is because many of these
as a means of income, exporting it
people and communities may not be aware that they are, or could well be, on the
to South Sudan where market prices
frontline of a series of events that are likely to change their lives, perhaps forever.
are five to six times the local cost
in Uganda. The consequences of
44
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT FMR31
Hotspots – predictions
and action
Jock Baker, Charles Ehrhart and David Stone
and South-east
Asia; and Central
America and the
western part of
South America.
Drought-risk
■■
hotspots are
mainly located
in sub-Saharan
Africa, South
Asia (particularly
Afghanistan,
Pakistan and
parts of India)
and South-east
Asia (notably
Burma, Vietnam
and Indonesia).
Cyclone-risk
■■
hotspots include
Maplecroft
Mozambique
and Madagascar,
Central America,
Bangladesh, parts
of India, Vietnam and several high incidences of hazards need not needs to be translated into policy
other South-east Asian countries. necessarily result in similarly high to ensure appropriate support
levels of human vulnerability. to vulnerable populations
The map above3 shows hotspots affected by climate change.
of humanitarian risk for floods, Predictions into action
cyclones and drought (combined) This study also suggests some Last but by no means least,
■■
overlaying a population density important actions: mitigate climate change.
gradient. Blue areas with striped Without this, many efforts
overlay represent areas of high Increase investment in disaster
■■ to reduce vulnerability are
population density that are also risk reduction (DRR). This means likely to fail – even with more
at-risk hotspots. These areas could concentrating on reducing accurate modelling systems.
be interpreted to be at higher risk vulnerability rather than just
of future population displacement reacting to emergencies, especially Jock Baker (baker@careinternational.
as a result of climate hazards. in poor countries that are hazard- org) is the Programme Quality and
prone but are experiencing an Accountability Coordinator for
Areas at risk from more than one increase in extreme weather CARE’s Emergency Group (www.
climate-related hazard warrant events. Future agreements on how care-international.org). Charles
special concern. These areas include to adapt to climate change need Ehrhart (ehrhart@careclimatechange.
much of sub-Saharan Africa, to clearly reflect the importance org) is CARE’s Climate Change
especially the east coast, and much of disaster risk reduction and Coordinator. David Stone (david.
of South Asia. In addition, some preparedness for response. stone@proactnetwork.org) is
areas are at-risk hotspots for all three Director of ProAct Network (http://
of the above-mentioned hazards. Ensure faster and more appropriate
■■ proactnetwork.org), an NGO
These include South-east Africa and responses to disasters. Climate concerned with the environmental
parts of South and South-east Asia. change will increase the need ramifications of human displacement.
for ‘intelligent’ humanitarian
The same approach can be used responses which preserve For more information on this study
to produce maps giving a more livelihoods as well as saving lives. visit www.careclimatechange.org
detailed view of predicted human
1. Thow, Andrew and de Blois, Mark (2008) ‘Climate
vulnerability, based on a number Invest in improved hazard and
■■ change and human vulnerability: Mapping emerging
of natural, human, social, financial vulnerability analysis and mapping trends and risk hotspots for humanitarian actors’
Maplecroft
and physical variables. High levels systems to better assess risks 2. Given the complexity of climate change science and
of vulnerability, for example, often arising from climate change. measurements of human vulnerability, the results should
be interpreted as indicative only. Additional more
reflect national indicators for Such investments include detailed research is required at both regional and local
governance and risk of conflict while improving climate-monitoring levels to improve reliability.
lower vulnerability can reflect greater technology in order to improve 3. This map, and others referenced in this article,
were developed with support from the Policy and
availability of water and fertile mapping, improve the reliability Development Studies Branch of OCHA. The views
land. A clear message emerging of forecasts and model good expressed, however, are those of the authors and do not
necessarily represent the official position of the UN.
from this study, however, is that practice. This information then
46
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT FMR31
No regrets
Vikram Odedra Kolmannskog
Adaptation in the most exposed and vulnerable states must and infrastructure but the role
be an international task. of the state, its institutions and
other political and socio-economic
factors is crucial in preventing
conflict and displacement in the
context of climate change.
a stagnant
puddle in failed several times because US
Hargeisa IDP arms manufacturers, in the name of
settlement,
market freedom and backed by their
Somalia,
2006.
government, have rejected controls.
The challenges facing developing
Prevention and mitigation must be but they need not rise to the level of countries must be seen in this
priorities for action but, with global violent conflict. The capacities needed larger context. If we want to deal
warming already a reality, there are to adapt successfully to climate with the causes of forced migration
some impacts for which adaptation change are similar and often the same and conflict, we should also seek
is the only available and appropriate as those needed for development to locate them in the policies and
response. The Intergovernmental in general and to reduce the risk practices of developed countries.
Panel on Climate Change stresses of conflict and forced migration.
the importance of addressing climate Strengthening and improving state Climate change could foster a new
change adaptation in vulnerable structures and capacities as well as and stronger sense of solidarity.
states, especially where these economic and distributive justice It provides an opportunity
responses are so-called ‘no regrets’ are ways of adapting. In this way, for cooperation in addressing
measures – that is, measures that conflict- and migration-sensitive global issues such as conflict and
turn out to be of benefit no matter climate change policies can actively displacement. Climate change
how or if the predicted climate promote development, and climate- reminds us how everything is
change impacts materialise. Their proof humanitarian and development connected. The world may be
report1 notes that most analyses of policies can be effective climate divided and people categorised
adaptation propose that successful change adaptation strategies. in many ways but we all share
adaptations involve marginal changes and are part of the same Earth.
rather than fundamental changes in Although the responsibility for
location and development paths. climate change and its impacts Vikram Odedra Kolmannskog
primarily lies with developed (vikram.odedra.kolmannskog@
From environmental conflict research countries, vulnerable states also need nrc.no) is Legal Coordinator for
and migration/refugee studies, it to address the realities of forced the Norwegian Refugee Council
is clear that addressing factors of migration and conflict. Protection (www.nrc.no) and author of the
conflict and forced migration can of people on their territory is the NRC publication Future floods
help prevent the worst impacts of primary responsibility of nation of refugees, online at www.nrc.
climate change. Climate change has states. Adaptation is to a large extent no/arch/_img/9268480.pdf
impacts that may trigger conflicts a question of resources, information
1. www.ipcc.ch
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT 47
Our generation has failed to live up to its obligations to blame on this issue, the industrialised
prevent climate change and any steps we take now, however countries of the world clearly bear
the greater part of this burden. I
welcome, will not totally reverse the trends. We need would argue, however, that rather
urgently to prepare now for the human consequences of than assigning blame we achieve
climate change. the same result by asking those who
have the funds and the technologies
Firstly, we are in desperate need of a caused by natural disasters, such to rise to the occasion and carry out
better understanding of the size and as earthquakes, floods and violent their duty to humanity. Recent studies
the characteristics of this issue. We storms, not because the people show that though the investment
need data to help us plan effectively. affected by these events fall under required may be large, the payback
We have hit an analytical stone wall the UNHCR mandate but because in economic terms can also be large.
in terms of understanding what the UNHCR has the experience and In sum, the developed countries of
consequences of this issue are and capability to assist and has a the world should be able to shoulder
we are going to have to deal with humanitarian obligation in these this burden if the will exists to do so.
extraordinary levels of ambiguity. situations to do what it can. By If funding is available I am confident
Climate change we can find the
can take so many international
different forms mechanisms
in terms of how necessary
it impacts on to address
migration or even on the problem.
refugee flows. The But funding
first requirement is availability will
to get better analysis. be problematic.
Mainstreaming
adaptation in Indonesia
Adaptation is a cross-
cutting task, requiring
the coordinated efforts
of different actors within
and also beyond the
state. Adaptation needs
to build on and be
supported by activities
by relevant ministries
(e.g. environment, finance
and planning) and those
responsible for identifying
budgetary priorities as
well as specialised agencies
such as geological and
meteorological services
and institutions for disaster
prevention. National
GTZ/Jeremy Ferguson
Strategies can help
provide a framework for
coordinating adaptation
activities, enabling informed
decision-making, mobilising
national and international
Portuguese), and then inform the of the Búzi River. Moisés Vicente support and developing appropriate
neighbourhood – in the local dialect, Benessene, Director of the National institutional structures for adaptation.
Ndau – and organise transport and Institute of Meteorology, describes it
evacuation. Translation into the as a “people-centred early warning Indonesia faces increased
local dialect has been an important system”, based on local knowledge, vulnerability to the effects of
factor for the success of the project. customs and cultural values. As climate change, especially rising sea
local leaders, doctors and teachers levels, changes in precipitation and
Furthermore, a syllabus and lesson have all volunteered to serve in local extreme weather events. Climate
plans were developed at four project Disaster Management Committees, projections indicate that the mean
schools to raise awareness among taking on responsibility has become wet-season rainfall will increase
children and young people about highly respected in the communities. across most of Indonesia while the
the impacts of climate change and Some challenges remain, however, length of the dry season is expected
to familiarise them with the theme such as keeping the system running to increase, bringing increased risk
of disaster risk management at an and constantly maintaining people’s of floods during the rainy season
early age. Both themes have been awareness of climate risks and the and drought in the dry season. This
integrated into local curricula. use of disaster preparedness. will have a particular impact on
water resources, agriculture and
As a result of these activities, villagers The experiences of Búzi have forestry, health and infrastructure.
and local government representatives, been shared with other districts,
teachers and schoolchildren have where plans are now also in hand Dr Sutardi of Indonesia’s Ministry of
been sensitised to the issues, and to establish local disaster risk Public Works and Executive Secretary
disaster risk management measures management mechanisms. The of Indonesia Water Partnership2
for climate change adaptation have people of Búzi have shown that explains that “most people have not
been integrated into the district’s climate-driven disasters and threats yet integrated the issue of climate
development plan. The robust can be effectively met by concerted, change into their everyday life. They
disaster risk management system decentralised community action still feel there was just a bit ‘too
now makes it possible to deliver an and self-organisation at low cost. much rain’ during the rainy season
early warning of flood events and or ‘too little’ in the dry months.”
the system has already proven its However, adaptation to climate
efficiency. During the rainy seasons “We realised that many lives could change is now a major concern
of 2005 and 2007, extreme flooding be saved with better capacity and of the Indonesian government.
struck the area once again but most of structure for disaster management at The Ministry of the Environment
the inhabitants escaped and survived. all levels in the areas of prevention, has initiated the development of
In the meantime, the system has preparation and response to a national strategic approach to
been further calibrated and refined. such climate disasters.” adaptation planning. Challenges
faced include the availability and
The success of the project is ascribed Moisés Vicente Benessene, Director of dissemination of relevant information
to its high level of participation the National Institute of Meteorology and planning tools, awareness of the
of and ownership by the people issue among decision-makers, and
50
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT FMR31
the involvement of line ministries making while awareness-raising circumstances are likely to increase
and local-level administrations that requires there to be more aggregated poor people’s vulnerability. National
are key to implementing adaptation. knowledge. Improving institutional (and regional) adaptation strategies
capacities for coordination is of should therefore incorporate
GTZ is working on a project to help particular importance at all levels. migration as an adaptation option –
enhance the capacity of policymakers recognising, for instance, that people
to mainstream climate change Migration as an often live and keep their assets in
issues into development planning. adaptive response more than one place. In this respect,
It provides assistance in assessing At some point a region may become development cooperation can help
vulnerability to and the economic no longer capable of sustaining improve local government’s capacity
EC/ECHO/François Goemans
Floods in
Mutarara
district,
Mozambique,
2007.
impacts of climate risks as well as livelihoods. People will be forced to address migration as an adaptation
prioritising adaptation options in to migrate to areas that present option and accommodate migration
the water sector. The second focus better opportunities. Generally, the rather than attempting to limit it.
is on cooperation between different international adaptation community
institutions concerning adaptation. tends to regard migration as an Britta Heine (Britta.heine@gtz.de)
The assessment of impacts, ‘adaptation failure’. However, works with the Climate Protection
vulnerabilities and adaptation options migration is (and has been for a Programme for Developing Countries
should lead to increased awareness long time) an adaptive response at GTZ head office in Eschborn,
and informed decision-making in to climate stress in many areas. Germany (www.gtz.de/en/). Lorenz
water resource management and Petersen (Lorenz.Petersen@gtz.de) is
beyond. The integration of measures Temporary migration, for example, the Head of the Climate Protection
into development and financial in times of climate stress can help Programme. For further information
planning should contribute to the top up a family’s income (from paid see www.gtz.de/climate.
sustainable management of public work elsewhere) and reduce the drain
resources. And, finally, systematic on local resources. In Botswana, for See also: GTZ (2008): Climate
priority setting should improve the instance, many of the urban poor Change and Security. Challenges
efficiency of measures that reduce rely on livestock and farmland in for German Development
vulnerability to climate change. rural home areas for food and income Cooperation. Copies can be obtained
reserves. Yet, as non-residents in electronically or as hard copies
Throughout the project, the their home area, they are not entitled by writing to climate@gtz.de
importance of providing relevant to drought relief and risk heavy
1. On behalf of the German Federal Ministry for
information at different levels losses without compensation in Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ)
and to different stakeholders has the event of failure of the rains.3 2. www.inawater.com/
become evident. In the water sector, 3. Tacoli, Cecilia (2007): ‘Migration and adaptation
to climate change’, Sustainable Development Opinion,
detailed technical information Policies attempting to limit migration International Institute for Environment and Development
is necessary to inform decision- while disregarding causes and www.iied.org/pubs/pdfs/17020IIED.pdf
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT 51
Kiribati – relocation
and adaptation
Maryanne Loughry and Jane McAdam
As well as developing adaptation strategies, the people ■■ human health impacts with
of Kiribati are having to consider the possibility of an increase in the incidence of
dengue fever and diarrhoea.
permanent relocation.
They are clearly aware of the effects of
According to the Intergovernmental Kiribati is also thought to be one climate change on their environment
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)1, of the nations most vulnerable to and fishing patterns. However, they
sea-level rise is expected to threaten the impact of climate change. This are unsure of the science of climate
vital infrastructure and structures is due in combination to the low- change and frequently attribute the
supporting the livelihood of many lying land mass with the population changes they are experiencing to the
Pacific island communities. By the having no recourse to higher lands, actions of God rather than human
middle of the 21st century, climate the nation’s limited sources of activities. Some believe that the
change is expected to reduce their income, and the concentration of current changes and water surges are
water supplies to the point where the majority of the population on signs of God punishing wrongdoing.
they become insufficient to meet one dominant atoll. These factors, Others believe that the future of
demand in low rain periods. Already combined with increasing changes Kiribati, though grim, is assured
a significant numbers of people in in climate, pose a threat to Kiribati’s because God promised in the Book of
the Carteret Islands of Papua New food and water security, health and Genesis that there would never again
Guinea are preparing to evacuate to infrastructure, as well as the ability of be a flood like the one experienced by
Bougainville in 2008, and scientists the Kiribati government to cope with Noah. Both explanations restrict the
suggest that these islands and the increasing climate-related disasters. people of Kiribati’s sense that they can
Pacific nations of Tuvalu and Kiribati be active in addressing the climate
are at risk of disappearing altogether In 2004, the people of Kiribati changes they are experiencing.
by the middle of the century. acknowledged, in the Otin Taai
Declaration,2 that human-induced Regardless of explanation, the
The Republic of Kiribati is an island climate change will have an extensive immensity of the problem facing the
nation consisting of one island and range of negative impacts on peoples I-Kiribati calls into question whether
32 low-lying atolls (with a total land of the Pacific Islands, including: adaptation is merely putting off
area of 811 square kilometres) in the the inevitable. A 2006 World Bank
Pacific Ocean. The people of Kiribati ■■ loss of coastal land and report, aptly called Not If but When,3
– known as I-Kiribati – all share infrastructure due to erosion, stressed the inevitability of these
one common language, Gilbertese. inundation and storm surges extreme climate events for nations
Kiribati includes the largest coral such as Kiribati – and the likelihood
atoll in the world, Kirimati or ■■ increase in frequency and of them becoming more extreme.
Christmas Island. Most of the land severity of cyclones with The report stops short, however, of
of Kiribati is less than three metres risks to human life, health, saying that populations may need
above sea level and on average homes and communities to migrate to avoid these extreme
only a few hundred metres wide. climate events. Rather, the onus is
■■ loss of coral reefs with put on Pacific nations to address risk
The population is approximately implications for the sea eco- management of natural hazards and
92,000, of whom nearly 50,000 live systems on which the livelihood to build adaptation plans into their
in South Tarawa, a highly dense area of many Islanders depends national development policies.
with a population growth rate of 3%
per year. Most of the I-Kiribati are ■■ changes in rainfall patterns Relocation?
engaged in subsistence activities, with increased droughts in At the 60th session of the UN General
including fishing and the growing of some areas and more rainfall Assembly in 2005, Kiribati’s President,
bananas and copra (dried coconut). with flooding in other areas Anote Tong, mentioned the need
The soil on the atolls is very poor for nations to seriously consider the
and there is little opportunity ■■ threats to drinking water supplies option of relocation – the ultimate
for agricultural development. due to changes in rainfall, sea- form of adaptation to climate change.
However, the fishing grounds are level rise and inundation He acknowledged that other forms
rich and copra and fish represent of adaptation might be too late for
the bulk of production and exports. ■■ loss of sugarcane, yams, taro his nation, and that now is the time
Nevertheless, Kiribati has one of the and cassava due to extreme to be discussing what might need
highest poverty rates in the Pacific. temperatures and rainfall changes to happen in the coming decades.
52
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT FMR31
The option of migration is not including migration, for the people The statement also called for a
unfamiliar to the people of Kiribati. of Kiribati. In particular, he hopes for regional immigration policy giving
In the 1940s, Kiribati’s Banaba increased labour migration options citizens most affected by climate
Island was decimated by phosphate so that family members can support change rights to resettle in other
mining and the vast majority of their extended family in Kiribati Pacific Island nations or Pacific
the population moved to the island through remittances. Not surprisingly, regional countries of their choice.
of Rabi in Fiji. There has also been Australia and New Zealand are
a movement of the population of two of the countries that President For many people and nations,
Kiribati to the atoll of South Tarawa, Tong is asking to be more receptive climate-induced displacement is a
resulting in over half of the total to increased labour migration from reality. However, the assistance and
population of Kiribati residing on Kiribati. However, this is seen as a protection needs of the displaced are
this one atoll. In reaction to the high short-term response, pending a more still being addressed primarily by
population density there, in the 1990s comprehensive and radical response the world’s poorer, more vulnerable
the Kiribati government moved to be considered in the next decades. nations, frequently in a piecemeal
nearly 5,000 people to outlying atolls. manner and without Palau
Kiribati
Significant actors like the World the weight and
The infrastructure of Kiribati is Bank4, in collaboration with resources of the
under huge pressure. Many of the partners such as AusAID and international
houses lack modern sanitation and NZAID (the Australian and New community.
are frequently not connected to the Zealand governments’ overseas aid
town sewage system (where it exists). programmes), and the European Maryanne
Beaches and other agricultural land Union have invested in adaptation Loughry
are frequently used for washing projects such as increasing popular (maryanne.
and toilet needs. In addition, the awareness in Kiribati of the effects loughry@
South Tarawa sewage system is of climate change and developing googlemail.
over 25 years old and, because of infrastructure such as building higher com) is Associate
limited funds, was not constructed and stronger sea walls. What is still Director, Jesuit Refugee
of sufficient length to take sewage not in place at present, however, is Service Australia (www.jrs.org.au).
beyond the reef, resulting in an adequate forum for discussions Jane McAdam (j.mcadam@unsw.edu.
effluent returning to the atoll with of realistic options available. Nor au) is Senior Lecturer and Director of
the tide. This, coupled with more is there an institution mandated International Law Programs in the
extreme weather conditions and to assist the population of Kiribati Faculty of Law, University of New
extra high tides, has meant that the to negotiate the most appropriate South Wales (www.law.unsw.edu.au).
domestic water supply is already response to their pending plight.
1. Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental
compromised, with ground water Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: The
at risk and the Tawara lagoon In September 2007 the Pacific Physical Science Basis: Summary for Policymakers, www.
aaas.org/news/press_room/climate_change/media/4th_
polluted. These pressures on the Conference of Churches called spm2feb07.pdf
population add to the urgency of an upon the churches of the Pacific to 2. www.oikoumene.org/index.php?id=2607
adequate response for the I-Kiribati. be welcoming and compassionate 3. World Bank, Not If but When: Adapting to Natural
Hazards in the Pacific Islands Region (2006) http://
to those people of Kiribati, Tuvalu siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPACIFICISLANDS/
President Tong has called for urgent and the Marshall Islands who Resources/Natural-Hazards-report.pdf
discussions on adaptation options, wish to resettle in Pacific countries. 4. through the Global Environment Facility (GEF) Trust
Fund www.undp.org/gef
Climate change threatens to destroy coral reef ecosystems. “…the destruction of our coral reefs
When reefs die, economic and food security is threatened, is tantamount to the destruction of
forcing people to move. our country.” Ambassador Stuart
Beck of Palau, speaking to the UN
Coral reef ecosystems are home to increasing ocean temperatures, Security Council on 17 April, 2007
an estimated one million species ocean acidification, storm severity
and are among the most productive and sea-level rise – threaten to destroy
ecosystems on the planet. They are coral reef ecosystems.1 Unusual Palau is attempting to adapt in
critical for food supply; over a billion warming events have already caused several ways. Firstly, the people of
people rely on reef-related fisheries massive coral bleaching throughout Palau are protecting their reefs to
worldwide. In addition, reef-related the world and the destruction of over increase resilience to climate change
diving and tourism provide billions one-third of the coral reef ecosystems threats; healthier reefs are less likely
of dollars of revenue each year. of Palau, an island nation in the to be destroyed by unusually high
The impacts of climate change – western Pacific. ocean temperatures than reefs under
FMR31
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT 53
Jesse Cameron-Glickenhaus
by 2020.2 The project covers 9.6 and chemical run-off
million square kilometres of ocean
and will help protect over half ■■ diversify food supply to include
of all known species of corals. non-fish sources of food
Community-led adaptation
in Bangladesh
James Pender
Climate change adaptation strategies are urgently needed by higher rainfall in the Ganges-
in Bangladesh but they must be community-led. Megna-Brahmaputra river basins
and greater Himalayan glacier
In terms of the impact of climate of population living in low-lying melt in the monsoon, resulting in
change, few places in the world will coastal zones.1 Currently, almost 40 more devastating floods. In 1998
experience the range of effects and million people live in the coastal flooding submerged 68% of the
the severity of changes that will areas of Bangladesh. Loss of coastal country for ten weeks, temporarily
occur in Bangladesh. These global land to the sea in this vulnerable displacing 30 million people.
warming-induced changes will zone – currently predicted to reach
almost all have negative impacts up to 3% by the 2030s, 6% in the Secondly, cyclones may get more
on the population of Bangladesh, 2050s and 13% by 2080 – is likely to frequent and are likely to be more
a country that already has around generate a steady flow of displaced powerful. A higher sea level means
half of its citizens living below the people.2 However, there are a number that storm surges that accompany
poverty line. Forced migration of other more insidious problems cyclones will drive sea water even
threatens to be a major consequence. associated with sea-level rise. further inland. A cyclone in 1991
killed 138,000 and affected over
Bangladesh is the world’s third most Firstly, a higher sea level means 13 million, with a surge 7.2 metres
vulnerable country to sea-level rise that the gradient of rivers will be high. Surges in future may surpass
in terms of the number of people and reduced, resulting in slower drainage 10 metres in height, penetrating
in the top ten in terms of percentage to the sea. This will be compounded far inland in this country of
which two-thirds is lower than
five metres above sea level.
Community-led adaptation
Climate change adaptation
urgently needs to be developed
and applied in Bangladesh.
River bank
protection
Adaptation strategies can include:
IISD/Leila Mead
along the
Brahmaputra ■■ doing nothing: the least ideal
River, strategy, obviously, but a
Bangladesh.
2007
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT 55
common one, due to lack to form a seed bed ready for planting. use of both local and foreign good
of adaptive capacity These floating gardens (baira), which practice throughout vulnerable areas.
are cultivated in the rainy season and
■■ sharing losses: whereby those float above monsoon floods, are now Conclusion
affected do not bear the full cost of becoming popular in many other Climate change will affect all areas
the effects of climate change; this areas in the south of Bangladesh. of development work; mitigation
may include insurance schemes and adaptation policies therefore
as well as international aid At other times adaptation requires need to be integrated into all existing
some infrastructure development, projects and programmes. Climate
■■ modifying threats: includes, for which may be as straightforward change puts populations, particularly
example, changing agricultural as raising tubewells on concrete in low-lying poor countries like
cropping patterns or building platforms in order that a clean Bangladesh, at huge risk of becoming
a breakwater on an island source of water is available above displaced. Increased attention and
to safeguard industries
Although climate change affects everyone, it is not how women are affected by climate
gender neutral. change, much less how they might
be identified as powerful actors and
Climate change magnifies existing plinth level of their houses or agents of change. Prioritised activities
inequalities, reinforcing the disparity homesteads, and migration in many NAPAs fail to include women
between women and men in their saving their assets: trying
■■ as contributors and target groups.
vulnerability to and capability to to store seeds and moving
cope with climate change. During livestock to higher places Where NAPAs do take gender aspects
natural disasters, more women into consideration, substantial work
dietary adaptations: skipping meals
■■
tend to die or suffer injury than still has to be done to mainstream
or eating non-traditional foods
men because they are not warned, gender in climate change policies.
cannot swim or cannot leave the preserving food to be used in
■■ The Millennium Development Goals
house alone. When poor women lose lean times (MDGs)2 and Poverty Reduction
their livelihoods, they slip deeper using alternative energy-
■■ Strategies (PRSPs)3 could serve as
into poverty and the inequality and related technologies important reference documents
marginalisation they suffer from adapting agricultural practices:
■■ in that respect. Civil society
because of their gender increases. e.g. switching to crops and/or groups can play an important
varieties that are flood- or drought- role in support of marginalised
Women’s responsibilities in the resistant, multiple cropping and groups and in addressing equity
family make them more vulnerable inter-cropping practices, alternative considerations – and therefore are
to environmental change, which is irrigation facilities, changing significant in strengthening gender
exacerbated by the impacts of climate to more easily marketable crop responsiveness in climate change,
change. As access to basic needs and varieties or to other animals enhancing human security.
natural resources – such as shelter,
earning income as labourers,
■■
food, fertile land, water and fuel – Greater inclusion of women and
borrowing money from money
is hampered, women’s workload inclusion of a gender-specific
lenders, saving part of their
increases. Drought, deforestation approach in climate change adaptation
earnings, or selling livestock
and erratic rainfall mean that women and decision-making may reverse the
have to work harder to secure organising and collective action:
■■ inequitable distribution of climate
resources and livelihoods. In such e.g. setting up of group savings change impacts. And greater inclusion
situations, women have less time or systems of group labour. could improve adaptive decision-
to earn income, get an education making itself, reducing the negative
or training, or to participate in Environmental issues, including impacts on the entire community,
governing bodies. Girls regularly policies, laws and programmes, are thus enhancing human security.
drop out of school to help their often treated as being gender neutral.
mothers to gather wood and water. Whereas there is clear evidence of a This article is extracted from
direct link between gender relations Gender, Climate Change and
The relocation of people severely and impacts of and adaptation to Human Security, published in 2008
impacts on social support networks climate change, women’s participation by the Women’s Environment and
and family ties – mechanisms that in decision-making structures and Development Organization (WEDO
have a crucial value for women processes is still inadequate. Climate www.wedo.org) with ABANTU for
and on their coping capacity. change debates, processes and Development (www.abantu-rowa.
mechanisms at national level often fail org) in Ghana, ActionAid Bangladesh
Women, however, can also be positive to sufficiently adopt a gender-sensitive (www3.actionaid.org/bangladesh/)
agents of change and contributors strategy, and there is little evidence and ENDA (www.enda.sn) in Senegal.
to livelihood adaptation strategies, of specific efforts to target women Authors: Irene Dankelman, Khurshid
and natural disasters can provide in adaptation activities funded by Alam, Wahida Bashar Ahmed,
women with a unique opportunity bilateral and multilateral programmes. Yacine Diagne Gueye, Naureen
to challenge and change their Fatema and Rose Mensah-Kutin.
gendered status in society. Local A broader evaluation of women’s Full report online at www.wedo.
strategies for adapting to climate vulnerability to climate change can org/library.aspx?ResourceID=269
change provide valuable lessons. In be achieved through the National For more resources on gender
studies from areas where flooding Adaptation Programmes of Action and climate change/disasters,
was problematic, women’s adaptation (NAPAs)1 and by estimating the see www.gdnonline.org.
strategies and mechanisms included: degree of vulnerability to natural
1. http://unfccc.int/national_reports/napa/items/2719.php
risks. Many NAPAs emphasise the 2. www.un.org/millenniumgoals/
moving to safer places:
■■ vulnerability of women and the 3. www.imf.org/external/NP/prsp/prsp.asp
higher locations, temporary importance of gender equality in
shelters, increasing the broad terms. However, few describe
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CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT 57
Communicating about climate change is crucial for effective discussed what climate change
disaster risk management. was, what it meant for their people
and how the Red Cross could
Climate change is increasing planting trees on hills and shorelines assist in addressing it. Then they
disaster risk, particularly for the against landslides and surges. sat down with community leaders
most vulnerable people. Instead of and government to see how climate
starting new programmes to address Indeed, many such strategies for change could be integrated into
these new risks by themselves, the climate change adaptation are disaster management. The process
brought new contacts with the
Departments of Meteorology,
Environment and Health,
the National Disaster
Management Office, the
Water Authority and NGOs.
Common concerns were soon
found, such as growing water
shortages. Samoa holds some
of the oldest weather records
in the Pacific and they show a
steady increase in temperature
and a decrease in rainfall.
Community talks confirmed
that scarcity of water had
become a major issue, and
Winner of
government departments
climate change
Nicaragua Red Cross Society
conditions. With predictions ranging About 700 people drowned. The asking communities about traditional
from seasonal forecasts of a heavy global climate is changing, and forecasting methods and sharing
monsoon to shifts in rainfall patterns traditional knowledge is increasingly information about new ways to
due to climate change, humanity unreliable because our past make predictions. A recognisable
faces two new challenges: not just experience does not necessarily system was set up, based on radios,
preparing for the foreseeable climate apply to present and future risks. flags and whistles for broadcasting
but also modifying decision-making In that light, the key is to learn how alerts. Escape routes and other
processes in order to incorporate the to communicate new knowledge response options were identified and
availability of new information. about future conditions in ways that publicised at community level. This
can be understood and trusted. greatly contributed to minimising
Prediction is not enough human losses during the next
People must both understand and While most people in vulnerable intense cyclones to hit the country.
trust warnings, and they must communities have already noticed
have the capacity to respond in an unusual extreme events taking
adequate manner. In the year 2000, place, they often explain such events In Colombia, a number of activities
the Limpopo river basin in southern through supernatural forces, such as were organised around a forum
Africa experienced a very substantial divine punishment or intervention on climate change. In two villages
rainfall for many days as a result of by angry ancestors. This kind of schoolchildren wrote and produced
unusual cyclones. Experts knew that explanation leads to the belief that a play about climate change.
it would result in serious flooding things will soon return to normal Communication students at Javeriana
– of a magnitude never experienced or to fatalism and inaction. As a University made banners and
before by rural communities Mozambican woman farmer said developed materials for children
in Mozambique. Yet very few during a Red Cross workshop: “If on what climate change is and
villages were informed about it. God wants to punish me, I will be what children themselves can do
punished, no matter what I do.” to contribute to preventing climate
Most communities had no electricity change and address rising disaster
or radio, yet people had previously However, that form of thinking risks. The students also produced a
been able to successfully predict can be changed by access to new very successful puppet show about
floods by observing ants. Ants build information. After learning about the earth being ill and running a
their homes underground; when the very basics of the climate temperature; the script, with music,
groundwater rises, they leave their change process and watching a is available in Spanish from the Red
nests – and people know that the short video on the impacts of more Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre.
water is rising. On this occasion the frequent flooding in Argentina and
flood came so rapidly there was no Bangladesh, the same farmer said: “I
time for the groundwater to rise, thought my community was the only Climate change is with us and is
or for ants to react before the river one punished this hard, and that it already making humanitarian work
overflowed. When someone who wouldn’t happen again. But now I more difficult. Things are expected to
had heard the experts’ prediction see that women all over the world are get worse. We will have to be smart
drove to a certain village to tell them suffering in similar ways; so maybe and efficient, not just to keep up with
to evacuate, the local chief asked it is true that the rains are changing the changes but to stay ahead of them.
him, “Who are you and why should and will continue to change, and
I do what you say? Since the times maybe I can do something about it.” Maarten van Aalst (MvanAalst@
of my ancestors, floods have only redcross.nl) is Associate Director and
occurred after ants leave their homes. Now the cyclone warning system set Lead Climate Specialist of the Red
Now the ants are not moving and up by the Mozambican government Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre.
you come and ask me to leave?” uses a colour-coded system with This paper is based on excerpts from
flags to label approaching cyclones. the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate
As in most of the Limpopo valley, The Mozambique Red Cross helped Guide, online at www.climatecentre.
many people did not evacuate. design and implement the system, org.
Predictive modelling
Christopher Smith, Dominic Kniveton, Sharon Wood and Richard Black
Empirical modelling techniques are the only way to effectively climate changes vary considerably.
simulate migration resulting from a complex combination of An agent-based modelling (ABM)
technique can be used to simulate
pressures and opportunities. the relationship between the
There is considerable uncertainty in changes responsible for pushing influence of environmental factors,
predicting climate change-induced and pulling migrants. Secondly, the climate variability and change and
migration. Firstly, we do not know the individual contexts, perceptions migration. According to the rules
extent and magnitude of the climate and behaviour of those affected by created for a particular simulation,
FMR31
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT 59
each ‘agent’ (representing a person maladaptive strategy such as denial Developing a model to simulate
or a household) assesses its personal or ineffective livelihood adjustments. existing migrant flows provides an
situation, the climate risk, its ability opportunity to investigate both the
to act, and the behaviour and views The basic cognitive process that each sensitivity of drivers of migration
of others and then makes appropriate agent undertakes in consideration to climate and the thresholds and
decisions to achieve its aims. of climate stimuli, and the resulting ranges of climate conditions that
selection of adaptation strategies, lead to migration. As a result of
One advantage of ABM is the underpins the formation of the these findings, such a model can
understanding that a series of ABM. However, the individual also be used to identify scenarios
interactions between individuals may context of each agent’s unique where there is a significant likelihood
result in more complex outcomes combination of experiences, biases, that communities and individuals
than could have been predicted by assets and perceptions defines will migrate. This could lead to an
aggregating the behaviour of many the differences among individual agent-based modelling approach
individuals. ABMs are therefore agents and their different responses that can produce a more detailed
an effective means of analysing to both environmental stimuli prediction of the number of people
the behaviour of individuals who and the actions of others. driven to relocate as a result of
interact but may think and act environmental conditions than
differently from each other and who In order to refine the attributes of has previously been possible.
also exhibit newly emerging traits. the agents and the rules of their
An important feature in the context interaction within an ABM, detailed Christopher Smith (c.d.smith@
of climate change is the capability country-specific knowledge is sussex.ac.uk) is a DPhil researcher
of an ABM to allow scenarios to required.1 With adequate data and Dominic Kniveton (d.r.kniveton@
be simulated for which historical from which to develop the rules sussex.ac.uk) is Senior Lecturer
analogues (e.g. experience from of interaction and thresholds for in the Department of Geography,
past climate events) do not exist. action of agents, the response of a University of Sussex. Sharon Wood (s.
community to a given or forecast wood@sussex.ac.uk) is Senior
Migration climate scenario may be undertaken Lecturer in Computer Science and
In developing an ABM to simulate to provide a simulation of how Artificial Intelligence, Department
the impact of climate change that community will respond on of Informatics, University of Sussex.
upon migration, it is important the individual, household and Richard Black (r.black@sussex.
to consider the influence of social community level. By developing an ac.uk) is Co-Director of the Sussex
structures, institutional influences ABM from comprehensive data, the Centre for Migration Research
and the actions of individuals. When degree to which recent migratory (www.sussex.ac.uk/migration/).
perceived risk from climate change is movements have been affected by
1. For more details, including information on the existing
greater than a specified threshold, the climate stimuli can be assessed and model for Burkina Faso, please see www.informatics.
individual considers adaptation and the influence of climate isolated from sussex.ac.uk/users/cds21/publications/
the options available – which may the multiple drivers behind migration.
include adaptation or migration, or a
Given the magnitude of the challenges ahead, we urgently underline the fact that we know
need to develop a policy-oriented global research agenda. very little about how changes in
the environment affect migration
The topic of environmental change, 35 experts in the fields of migration and that we lack the data and
particularly climate change, and and the environment in April 2008. research necessary to move
migration is exploding onto the They assessed the current knowledge beyond such estimates. We do not
global policy agenda. Yet little base and identified research gaps understand well how slow-onset
evidence-based research exists to and priority areas for research, events, including desertification,
inform sound decision making. which fell within three main areas: sea-level rise and deforestation,
To address the need for more affect migration within and
sound empirical research and to 1. Measurement and identification between countries. Nor do we
identify how to carry forward a More work is needed to concep- know much about how expected
global research agenda, the UN tualise and quantify migration changes in migration patterns are
University Institute for Environment responses to the impact of likely to affect the environment.
and Human Security (UNU-EHS) environmental change and Policymakers lack the information
together with the International degradation. The existing, necessary to prepare for,
Organization for Migration speculative estimates about the prevent or respond effectively to
(IOM) and the UN Environment potential scale of environmentally environmental migration.
Programme (UNEP) brought together induced human displacement
60
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT FMR31
While experts felt that policymaking environmental situations will the world currently, and expected to
would benefit from a differentiated contribute to different migration be, worst affected by environmental
definition of environmentally patterns, ranging from temporal degradation and climate change.
induced migration, a working displacement and permanent
definition such as the one proposed displacement, to cyclical migration 3. Information and knowledge
by IOM1 was deemed helpful for the and permanent migration. management, using networks,
purpose of framing the debate and Experts discussed identifying databases and websites, to
measuring the phenomenon. Long- crisis tipping points or migration ensure that research findings
term environmental degradation thresholds in the case of slow-onset and key policy developments
interacts with migration in complex environmental change. are shared effectively
ways that make it difficult to between key stakeholders
clearly attribute people’s reasons What are the responses and and to encourage exchange of
for moving and whether they are how do people migrate? The experiences and good practice.
in fact environmentally induced tendency to migrate in the
migrants. An absolute number face of environmental stress 4. Capacity-building projects to
of environmental migrants, as may increase when temporary enhance data collection and use to
often demanded by the media, is migration is already an established ensure that countries likely to be
difficult to arrive at and current phenomenon. Migration should most affected by environmental
numbers are, at best, estimates. not be seen solely as a failure migration will have an adequate
but also as a form of adaptation research base, training workshops
2. Interactions and linkages to environmental change. for policymakers and best practices
The meeting explored the complex More investigation of possible based on policy-oriented research.
interactions of environmental positive effects of migration on
change with economic and social the environment is needed. To achieve human security in the
factors that drive environmental face of expected climatic shifts, there
migration. How are they linked? 3. Scenarios and policy must be careful multi-stakeholder
The links between migration and Migration needs to be discussed involvement, particularly in
environmental change are multi- more within the context of resettlement and accelerated
directional, making it necessary adaptation strategies. For this to adaptation. Coordinated policy
to examine other factors such happen, policymakers need to attention and action based on sound
as governance, poverty, lack better understand thresholds and empirical evidence are needed today.
of social cohesion and conflict. critical tipping points. Other key
Environmental change may have a policy areas include relocation Koko Warner (warner@ehs.unu.
multiplier effect on other drivers of and resettlement. Relocation edu) is Head of the Environmental
migration. has profound impacts on both Migration, Social Vulnerability,
displaced populations and receiving and Adaptation Section at UNU-
Who migrates, where and when? communities – but most policy EHS (www.ehs.unu.edu) in Bonn,
In the face of slow environmental currently focuses almost entirely on Germany. Frank Laczko (FLACZKO@
change those who are able to move the process of the move. Looking iom.int) is Head of Research and
– those with money, social networks at other forms of displacement Publications at IOM (www.iom.org).
and alternative livelihoods – may and policy response can help
tend to migrate independently. shape appropriate policies. For more details of the workshop, see
The vulnerable poor, those www.iom.int/jahia/Jahia/eventEU/
with no capacity to move when A global research agenda cache/offonce?entryId=16923.
environments deteriorate, the very and action plan
1. “Environmental migrants are persons or groups
young and the elderly may be left With agreement on the need for a of persons who, for compelling reasons of sudden or
behind or forced to resettle later. global inter-disciplinary research progressive changes in the environment that adversely
affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged to
Gender and demographic structure programme to respond to these leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either
temporarily or permanently, and who move either
also play a role in patterns of priority areas, the experts laid out within their country or abroad.” Discussion Note:
environmentally induced migration. four imperatives for further work Migration and the Environment. IOM Council 94th
Session 2007.
While internal migration is likely on environmental migration:
to increase pressure on urban
areas, international migration may 1. Systematic review of available
become a more prominent feature research evidence on environmental
of environmental migration as migration. This baseline will
environmentally induced migrants highlight where new methods
draw on existing networks formed and approaches need to be
between source and destination developed, and lay the path
countries. for future coordinated work.
Changing climate,
changing policies?
Dhananjayan Sriskandarajah
It remains doubtful whether national and international issues. For example, policymakers
policymakers are yet willing or able to act to prevent or will need to decide whether they
want to use legal interventions or
mitigate the displacement impacts of climate change. new operational mechanisms, or
both. And should policymakers
There is of course no shortage of also in generating policy solutions. prioritise agreeing universal
political or media interest in the Such cross-pollination will help principles around protection or
nexus between climate change resolve some of the key questions proceed on a more ad hoc basis?
and migration. Yet there seems about what action is needed.
to be a dearth of analysis on how In the absence of good quality
exactly climate change will lead to Even when it is clear how and research and strong political
displacement and on what should where climate change will lead leadership, we may actually see
be done to minimise adverse to displacement – and concerted the worst of all possible outcomes:
impacts. This has resulted in research efforts currently underway sensationalist headlines that
limited commitment to action. should yield a reasonable picture exaggerate the scale of what might
soon – the difficulty of getting happen, reactionary policies to
Identifying the contexts in which policymakers to act should prevent the entry of environmental
climate change is or will be the not be underestimated. ‘refugees’ and very little genuine
determining factor in causing protection for those who might
displacement (as opposed to one The very task of identifying be vulnerable to the impacts of
of many factors that may motivate responsibility will be a huge climate change, often through
people to move) will be crucial. challenge. The politics of climate little fault of their own.
Until we are clearer about this many change are plagued by collective
policymakers will argue that, despite action problems. International Researchers hold some of the
the importance of the issues, there climate negotiations are regularly responsibility for avoiding this by
is insufficient evidence upon which undermined by the fact that climate providing better analysis of exactly
to act. This is not helped by the fact change is a global phenomenon how the relationship works but
that most researchers working in this that knows no boundaries, while the onus is equally on national
area are not yet confident enough some of the most important actors and international policymakers
about how the causality works to be (sovereign nation states) are to show leadership and respond
prepared to recommend policy action. inherently bounded. Add to this appropriately to the challenges ahead.
the challenges of responding to
Unfortunately, the relationship international migration, another Dhananjayan Sriskandarajah
between climate change and area where global consensus seems (d.sriskandarajah@ippr.org) is head of
migration, each a massive subject far off, and achieving multilateral migration research at the Institute for
on its own terms, seems to be action to prevent or respond to Public Policy Research. This article
rather marginal to those who focus climate change-induced displacement reflects on proceedings at an ippr
primarily on one of the issues. seems incredibly difficult. conference on Climate Change and
Sharing methodologies and findings Forced Migration held in London in
across these communities more Any international action in this area April 2008. A transcript is available
effectively will be a key step not will need to manoeuvre around at www.ippr.org/migration.
only in advancing knowledge but several potentially thorny policy
How the legal and normative frameworks are addressed Fourthly, much of the current
will be critical to the security of people threatened by discourse treats environmentally
induced migration as a reactive
climate change. response of last resort where
A dominant theme of rights-based This same question has recently migration is seen as failure. However,
discourse is that rights should not been posed by, for example, the migration is sometimes a positive
be violated by displacement. There IASC, IOM, EC and NRC1, and at and proactive diversification
are, accordingly, well established the Hague Debate.2 A number of and development strategy that
international, regional and national issues flow from this question. households, individuals and
legal instruments, covenants and sometimes whole communities
norms to protect the rights of people It is essential to recognise the adopt to improve their lives and
forcibly displaced by conflict, multi-causality of environmental to reduce risk and vulnerability.
persecution, natural disasters and displacement in which climate
development projects. It is therefore change may be only one of Fifthly, and conversely, the focus
surprising that a similar framework the factors triggering forced of much current academic and
to protect the rights of people forced migration; this raises the question political debate is on the interests
to move because of climate-induced as to the extent to which it is of those forced to migrate because
environmental change does not exist. possible to consider specific forms of environmental factors over the
of protection for a migratory equally important rights of those
The key questions explored in process which does not have a who remain. For some, remaining
this article are, first, the case clearly established ‘cause’. may be a positive choice – a strategy
for developing the capacity of of adaptation and resilience. This
domestic and international legal A second, and related, challenge is challenges the notion of vulnerable
apparatus to support the needs of to explore the extent to which people groups as passive victims,
people vulnerable to displacement forcibly displaced by environmental highlighting instead people’s skills,
induced by climate change. The factors are subject to violations strategies and agency. Equally,
second is to what extent these legal of basic human rights in the way there may be those who are forced
and normative frameworks could that refugees and IDPs are. It is to remain because they lack the
support the capacity of local and necessary to establish the particular opportunities, skills and resources
regional governance and civil society nature of threats to human rights to migrate. In either case we need
structures to implement adaptation caused by ecosystem degradation to consider how a rights-based
and resilience strategies in order induced by climate change. protection regime and the application
to avert population displacement. of principles of human security
Thirdly, in contrast to one of the might support those who remain.
The aspiration is not to promote fundamental factors on which the
a case for developing binding 1951 Convention and the Guiding Lastly, it is in the global south where
conventions but to initiate a bottom- Principles are predicated, those the incidence of climate-induced
up process – much as the debate on who are forcibly displaced by environmental displacement is,
the Guiding Principles on Internal environmental factors will often and will be, most severe. Many
Displacement did in the early 1990s not return home. Moreover, whilst of these countries and regions
– which might afford firmer support it is almost certainly the case that have weak governance and civil
for the rights of those forcibly the majority will remain internally society structures and are least
displaced by environmental change displaced and will thus fall within able, or willing, to protect human
and of those at risk of displacement the sphere of national norms and rights and security. How can their
but who remain behind. legal instruments to protect their protection capacity be enhanced?
human rights, what has enforced In this context it is important to
Conceptual and displacement is a global process, not recognise that environmental
policy questions a local crisis. This reflects one of the factors do not undermine rights and
Recognising the role of human most fundamental issues related to security in isolation from a broader
agency and the need for states climate change: accountability – range of socio-economic rights.
to articulate and address the the obligation on the polluting
protection of rights in relation countries of the global north to A new framework of
to environmentally induced address the needs of countries that guiding principles?
displacement is a pressing will suffer most in the global south. Acknowledging the strong resistance
issue. What forms of protection The interplay between national and of the international community
for environmentally displaced international frameworks and issues to developing new international
people currently exist and, more of state sovereignty in applying instruments but recognising the need
significantly, should be developed as protection instruments takes on to protect the increasing numbers
these migratory processes increase? unique meanings in this context. of environmental migrants, what
FMR31
CLIMATE CHANGE AND DISPLACEMENT 63
existing norms and instruments and regional instruments providing are essential for supporting the
might be embraced in a new subsidiary and/or temporary potentially very large numbers of
framework of guiding principles? protection. Although implementation people forced to move as well as
is limited in precisely those fragile those who stay behind. Promoting
I believe the case is very weak for states where protection is most a rights-based perspective of
extending the 1951 Convention needed, these laws and instruments protection and an analysis based
and 1967 Protocol to include so- offer scope for debate and possible on entitlements can also be used
called ‘environmental refugees’ expansion to protect the rights of as a tool to indicate the parameters
as has recently been advanced by those displaced by, or affected by, for other ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ policy
some researchers and humanitarian environmental degradation. responses to the environmentally
agencies. Conversely, the 1998 displaced – for example, rights of
Guiding Principles, however, are A number of international bodies, access to land and housing, freedom
not just a fundamental starting point guidelines and standards buttress of movement, and participation
in their own right but also a model the protection and security rights of and empowerment in decision-
for the process of aggregating and international law and give practical making on resettlement. Addressing
adapting the norms and principles support to them. Although fraught the impacts of displacement as a
from a wide range of international with the same political challenges rights-based challenge inevitably
instruments to protect the rights of which accompany development demands that affected populations
the ‘environmentally displaced’. of the framework of principles, in are fully involved in developing
The 1948 Universal Declaration of time we might conceive that the response strategies, and that
Human Rights protects freedom protection mandates of a number advocacy tools and processes are
of movement and other social, of international bodies could be enhanced to promote their rights.
cultural and economic rights which extended, for example that of
can be enjoyed under international UNHCR or of the Office of the High Finally, the policy relevance of
human rights law and international Commissioner for Human Rights. developing protection norms,
humanitarian law but which might instruments and guidelines is
be threatened when people are Standards and guidelines that emphasised by the extreme cases
forced to migrate by climate-induced could be extended include the UN where ecosystem degradation and
environmental degradation. Inter-Agency Standing Committee’s the depletion of environmental
Guidelines on Human Rights and resources might lead to conflict and
There are ‘subsidiary’ norms and Natural Disasters, the Code of violence – and therefore to refugees
instruments which afford different Conduct for the International Red in the strictest sense of the 1951
forms of human rights protection Cross and Red Crescent Movement Convention. It is necessary to be
for migrant groups either directly and NGOs in Disaster Relief, and cautious about these links, for there
or indirectly, for example: the 1966 the Responsibility to Protect of is little solid empirical research and it
Covenant on Economic, Social the International Commission on is clear that environmental factors do
and Cultural Rights and the 1996 Intervention and State Sovereignty. not work in isolation. Nevertheless,
International Convention on Civil Equally, the Sphere Project’s given the inevitability of ecosystem
and Political Rights, as well as a Humanitarian Charter and Minimum degradation and the resulting
range of international conventions Standards in Disaster Response and increase in the numbers of those who
dealing with specific social groups, the humanitarian clusters under the will be forcibly displaced, there is
such as the 1990 International Humanitarian Response Review a strong case to be made to ensure
Convention on the Protection of the process also provide essential features that the protection machinery does
Rights of All Migrant Workers, the of protection regimes of relevance embrace environmental displacement
1989 Convention on the Rights of to those who are environmentally in these specific contexts.
the Child 1989, the 1981 Convention displaced. Interagency coordination,
on the Elimination of All Forms problematic enough now, will be vital. Roger Zetter (roger.zetter@qeh.ox.ac.
of Discrimination against Women uk) is Director, Refugee Studies
and the 1991 ILO Convention on Policy relevance Centre, University of Oxford (www.
the Rights of Indigenous People. Protection and human security rsc.ox.ac.uk) For more information
Given that statelessness is the likely instruments and norms will not have on the RSC’s research programme in
condition for citizens of small island the immediate impact of the physical, relation to climate change, see www.
states which will be submerged by spatial and developmental strategies rsc.ox.ac.uk/rc-environment.html
rising sea levels, their protection is and policies needed to respond to
1. Inter-Agency Standing Committee, see p41; Norwegian
a critical challenge under the 1954 climate-induced displacement – but Refugee Council, see p46; International Organization for
Convention Relating to Stateless providing and enhancing protection Migration see pp59-60.
2. See podcast on Human Displacement and Climate
Persons, the 1991 Convention on capacity remain essential components Change in International Law at www.forcedmigration.
the Reduction of Statelessness of a comprehensive approach to the org/podcasts/hague-climate-debate/
and the protection mandate of challenge of displacement at both
UNHCR for stateless people. national and international levels.
While the tragedy and suffering have made a deep Engage early
impression, it is people’s courage and hope that Responding early to a crisis is key to
success. As humanitarian workers
keep me going. rush in to distribute blankets, food
It has been my privilege to serve the And since women victimised during and medicines, recovery must also
UN for the past 25 years, working crisis are so frequently denied begin. UNDP serves as a bridge
for four different agencies in five justice, much of UNDP’s rule of law between humanitarian relief and
countries. Now, as Director of the programming focuses on the needs of long-term recovery, helping to
Bureau for Crisis Prevention and this neglected half of the population restore the capacity of national
Recovery (BCPR), I am involved in – whether by training lawyers and institutions and communities in areas
supporting communities ravaged police forces to respond to gender- such as security and rule of law.
by conflict or natural disaster to based violence, establishing free legal
rebuild and recover. For more than clinics or working with governments Immediately after any crisis – whether
two decades, I have seen people one prompted by armed conflict or
at their most vulnerable and most natural disaster – there is a short-
resilient. I have seen courage in lived window of opportunity to
places where children torn from ‘build back better’. In crises, days and
their families and forced into battle, even hours can make a difference.
women brutally raped and families With this in mind, UNDP developed
dispossessed are ready to pick a rapid crisis response strategy in
up their lives and start afresh. 2007, creating a network of specialists
around the world deployable within
The challenge has always been 72 hours. Last year, these specialists
to re-think old ways of doing supported 15 countries hit by crises,
business and to support and serve including Bangladesh, Liberia, the
people in their most vulnerable Solomon Islands and Sudan.
moments. The strengths of women,
IRIN/Manoocher Deghati
Protecting human
rights in Darfur
Maarten Barends
Rule of law programmes usually take place after conflicts responsibility rather than to resort to
have ended but it is never too early to start programmes physical force. Paralegals like Jemeela
arguably provide the most important
which encourage a return to the rule of law and respect for entry point for the dissemination
human rights. and application of international
human rights principles, especially
The sun rises over a flat expanse in and mediation services. They also those involving women’s rights.
Darfur. A seemingly endless number facilitate justice by referring the most
of plastic-sheeted domes and mud- serious cases (e.g. rape, murder or Paralegals conduct weekly training
brick structures cast long shadows. A torture) to the 61 Darfurian lawyers sessions in international human
low hum of quiet conversation grows of the UNDP Legal Aid Network. rights and domestic law, targeting
louder as one hundred thousand both duty-bearers and rights-
displaced people begin to stir. As Jemeela, a 50-year old woman, holders as it is equally important
might be expected of a population originates from a village 30 kilometres for people to be aware of their
this size – hemmed in by the constant south of the camp and has been rights as for the authorities to live
threat of banditry and violent displaced for nearly five years. up to their responsibilities under
physicalattacks – conflicts are not rare. Today, she is one of 154 paralegals national and international law.
in Darfur. Her paralegal team Such training provides a catalyst
Today, through an innovative Rule comprises 26 women and men whereby people begin to question
of Law Programme jointly managed of different ages and of different given norms of justice. Additionally,
by UNDP and an international NGO, tribes. Some paralegals also serve the exposure paralegals receive
Darfurians are coping with the many as sheikhs1 in their respective camp when providing training raises
stresses of camp life with the help of sectors. All are trained in mediation their standing in their communities
specially trained paralegals. These practices, human rights standards and they are increasingly invited to
paralegals, largely IDPs themselves, and Sudanese domestic law, and they participate in difficult mediations.
help manage and resolve camp-based help people to negotiate peacefully During these mediations paralegals
conflicts by offering free legal advice along the lines of entitlement and encourage sheikhs to apply and
FMR31 Protecting human rights in Darfur 67
UNDP/Maarten Barends
local customs and traditions. outlining
Among the most important cultural national and/
values is the belief that community or international
problems should be resolved by the laws that may
community. According to Ahmed, a positively inform
local sheikh, “If someone wants to the outcome.
go to a formal court, the neighbours
will intervene… You see, people Most sheikhs claim that paralegals still not settled. Yet it is promising
here do things differently.” There is are an asset to their mediation efforts. that such debates are taking place.
a strong aversion to state-imposed “Paralegals ask more questions than
solutions from local statutory courts we otherwise would,” states one. Working with traditional
and thus mediation figures largely Another sheikh says enthusiastically, justice systems
on the list of sheikh obligations. “In our villages, women would never Where traditional mediations lead
take part in mediations. Today, I to results that offend international
Most cases brought to the paralegals hear from both parties and I have human rights standards, paralegals
involve assaults: two women fight a much fuller picture of the story inform the parties involved about
each other at a water source over their than I did before. I am able to make their rights under Sudanese and
place in line; a youth is hospitalised better decisions.” While women’s international laws and offer the
in a fight over the interpretation of involvement is still wanting in some parties recourse under the formal
the Holy Quran; a divorcee fights camps, paralegals note that, “our justice system. They can also seek
with a new husband in a bout of human rights training sessions to sensitise sheikhs to Sudanese
jealousy. In cases of sexual and have had a real impact on the laws and human rights standards,
gender-based violence (SGBV), sheikhs’ thinking. Most of the time, and request reconsiderations of
domestic violence predominates women sit in on mediations in our their decisions. Paralegals are
but rape, spousal abandonment and camp.” Indeed, one of the biggest limited to this two-prong response
public humiliation are also common. accomplishments of the paralegal for two reasons.
programme has been the furtherance
While mediation practices vary of a woman’s right to participate in Firstly, IDP camps are ‘controlled’ by
from camp to camp, certain basic proceedings affecting her well-being. the largesse of the sheikhs who act
procedures and principles are not only as justice-makers but also
universal. Often, IDPs bring cases The relationship between paralegals as the main conduits of food ration
to the attention of paralegals before and sheikhs is not without cards and non-food items. Sheikhs
going to the local sheikh. Paralegals complications. Sheikhs carry the often do not appreciate members of
will coordinate with the parties to authority required to bring parties their flock taking ‘failed mediations’
appoint a time for a mediation session together and enforce decisions and to the formal justice system as these
in an open and neutral setting, such as thus their involvement is critical. cases diminish the sheikh’s standing
the paralegal’s household or the local Controversy arises particularly over in the community. IDPs on the losing
legal aid centre. Where the parties paralegals’ insistence that sheikhs end of a traditional settlement may
fail to come to an agreement, the not charge for their mediation not, in turn, wish to offend their
paralegal may request that a sheikh services. Women paralegals face benefactors by seeking legal redress
participate. Where paralegals are additional challenges. Younger outside of the sheikh’s circle of
invited to participate in mediations female paralegals, for example, are control. As the paralegal programme
they first lay down ground rules. Both not accorded the degree of respect takes a client-centred approach, the
parties are informed that they will that older female paralegals like client’s decision to accept the sheikh’s
get a chance to speak one at a time Jemeela receive. As Jemeela herself proposed settlement is a decision that
and that interruptions in testimony claims, “Paralegals introduce paralegals must respect, although
will not be tolerated. At the outset human rights principles. However, the paralegal may request (with the
of any mediation, they announce the tradition is still [an obstacle]. Sheikhs client’s consent) another organisation
potential availability of free legal may or may not agree with new to provide follow-up support.
ideas, such as including women as
mediators.” Indeed, owing to the Secondly, most IDPs came from
“Before this Rule of Law Programme diversity of backgrounds of IDPs, tightly-knit village communities that
came, I had no idea women actually controversies involving the place place a premium on group harmony
had rights. I was amazed.” of international human rights in over individual rights. The isolation
Jemeela, paralegal conservative Islamic communities are and constraints of rural village
life require them to find solutions
68 Human trafficking: beyond the Protocol FMR31
agreeable to both parties to a dispute. of peace in villages and IDP rights and that it is possible to do so
In most villages, there are no jails, no camps, isolated and facing scarce even while meeting survival needs.
peaceful way to enforce decisions and resources, even as they may do
no mechanisms to protect decision great injustice to the individual. The Maarten Barends (maarten.barends@
makers (sheikhs) from retribution two-prong approach employed by undp.org) works for the UNDP Rule
by aggrieved losing parties. Good paralegals is a responsible, client- of Law Programme in Darfur (www.
relations between neighbours are centred and culturally sensitive sd.undp.org/projects/dg8.htm).
considered necessary to survival. response to overcome harmful
This article is written in a personal
Today, these villagers live in the traditional justice results.
capacity and does not necessarily
same tightly-knit villages – largely
represent the views of the UN or any
organised under the same power The success of this first phase of
other organisation. The names of the
structures – within the vast tracts of the programme – conducted in the
people mentioned in the article have
IDP camps. Their traditions die hard. midst of a humanitarian emergency
been changed to protect their privacy.
– shows that it is never too early to
Traditional mediation results may address the need for furthering the 1. Sheikh means ‘elder’ in Arabic and is commonly used
to designate an elder of a tribe, a lord, a revered wise
serve the short-term interests rule of law and respect for human man or an Islamic scholar.
Human trafficking:
beyond the Protocol
Sergei Martynov
In February 2008, a major global event on human trafficking nexus – and within their power to
– the Vienna Forum – captured international attention and address the issue of how to optimise
the regulation of migration, thus
received broad global acclaim. diminishing the ‘pull’ factor.
The Vienna Forum1 did not end of numbers involved. Estimates There are two major flaws in the
up with specific declarations, of the number of global victims current international anti-trafficking
plans or pledges as is usually the of human trafficking range from approach. First, there is the lack
case with such events. It merely 800,000 to more than 2.4 million3 of a comprehensive institutional
brought together around 2,000 and of the profits of traffickers up framework, at present epitomised
representatives of governments, to US$32 billion.4 It is believed that by the Trafficking Protocol with its
international organisations, civil women and girls make up around overriding focus on security. Second,
society and the private sector, as 80% of all human trafficking victims. there is the lack of an institutionalised
well as many renowned individuals. Of particular concern are children structure for global cooperation
The greatest value of the Forum that fall prey to traffickers. UNICEF against human trafficking.
lies in the fact that it awoke the estimates that up to 1.2 million
world to the very bitter reality of children are trafficked annually. The starting point for a new paradigm
our contemporary life – slavery is Until recently, the main concern of should be to recognise that victims of
still with us and it is thriving.2 public opinion has been with the human trafficking are not solely the
trafficking for sexual exploitation. victims of traffickers but also of the
Prohibited by law, human trafficking However, there seems to be a global economic order and prevailing
is a highly covert activity. Each growing realisation that trafficking social contexts. A global response
year, some hundreds of thousands for labour exploitation should move to trafficking should therefore
of people around the world higher up the policy agenda. include policies that address the
become victims, unable to free three Ps – prevention, prosecution
themselves from an exploitative A new paradigm? and protection. Furthermore, it must
position. Criminals working in The world cannot drag its feet any equally target both sides of the human
organised networks treat the longer. Global inequalities will trafficking coin, both demand and
victims like commodities, buying surely persist, which, in turn, will supply. And, finally, it should tackle
and selling them for profit. continue to boost migration flows. both sexual and labour exploitation.
Industrialised societies should
Human trafficking is believed to acknowledge that they are to a great A new paradigm also requires an
be the third largest illicit activity extent dependent on foreign labour international structure that will
in terms of profits after the illegal to sustain their economic activities. It ensure effective cooperation and
sales of arms and narcotics. Yet, it is is within the power of governments coordination between stakeholders
precisely because of its covert nature to change the way global markets and the multiple anti-human
that human trafficking defies any operate, thereby reducing the ‘push’ trafficking initiatives. Far too often the
easy analysis and accurate estimate factor in the trafficking/migration efforts of the dozens of international
FMR31 HIV/AIDS services for refugees in Egypt 69
to facilitate coordination among without the firm commitment and by Lake Volta,
1. organised by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime Ghana.
various global and regional efforts. strong political support of the UN’s 2. For more information on human trafficking see FMR 25
What it needs now is a renewed member states. And it is for states www.fmreview.org/FMRpdfs/FMR25/FMR25full.pdf
interest on the part of its members to take responsibility and adopt 3. See www.antislavery.org/homepage/antislavery/
trafficking.htm
and political support from countries. a new comprehensive long-term
4. Cited from ‘Enhancing the Global Fight to End Human
paradigm on human trafficking Trafficking’, Hearing in the US House of Representatives
It is high time to make the necessary that will surely better our common 26 September 2006, serial No.109-232, p.11.
5. Global Partnership Against Slavery and Human
procedural decisions within the UN. prospects for putting an end to Trafficking
Most crucial is that the current phase this form of modern-day slavery. 6. www.ungift.org
HIV/AIDS services
for refugees in Egypt
Anna Popinchalk
HIV-positive refugees’ access to medical care in Egypt is refugees with regard to HIV and
impeded by the lack of medical services and by the intense AIDS, including discouraging
the use of mandatory testing.
stigma and discrimination associated with HIV/AIDS.
While there is no evidence to support that highlighting these risks would According to the 1951 Refugee
the claim that refugee populations cause governments to resist accepting Convention, host countries
have an increased prevalence of HIV, refugees. As countries began to are required to provide non-
it is true that refugees are inherently consider the necessity to test refugees discriminatory social and medical
more vulnerable to HIV – due to for HIV before allowing international assistance to refugees equal to that
social instability, loss of relatives travel and resettlement, UNHCR for nationals. However, countries
and breadwinners, increased risk strove to protect refugees against already overburdened with HIV/
of sexual assault or involvement expulsion due to their HIV status AIDS within their own population
in commercial sexual activities, by publishing its Policy Guidelines are usually unwilling to provide
as well as a lack of resources and Regarding Refugee Protection and additional services for refugees
services in education and health. Assistance and Acquired Immune and seldom include refugees in
Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS).1 their national AIDS policies.
Before the 1990s, there was little focus Since then UNHCR has continued
on the risks of HIV/AIDS within to publish guidelines and strategic As of March 2007, there were some
refugee populations due to the fear plans promoting the rights of 39,400 refugees and persons of
70 HIV/AIDS services for refugees in Egypt FMR31
concern registered with UNHCR a system of voluntary confidential for treatment apart from treating
in Cairo, Egypt.2 Among those, counselling and testing (VCCT) and any infections that may arise.
Sudanese, Iraqis and Somalis established national guidelines and a
constitute the vast majority (93%). monitoring and evaluation plan. There Recently, however, the Global
Refugees enjoy very few socio- are currently 14 VCCT sites, nine Fund for AIDS, Tuberculosis
economic rights in Egypt and managed by the MOHP, plus nine and Malaria (GFATM)5 provided
therefore depend mainly on UNHCR UNFPA-funded mobile VCCT vans funding for around 20 refugees to
and other NGO partners for assistance to provide access to people in remote receive ARVs over a period of five
– and, in the crowded urban areas of areas. All VCCTs provide anonymous years at Refuge Egypt starting in
Cairo and Alexandria, compete with testing; while seropositive cases are late 2008. The Ministry of Health,
local Egyptians for limited resources. reported to the Ministry for statistical with UNHCR support, has started
and epidemiological purposes, no training doctors in HIV awareness,
Refugees are impeded not only identifying information is provided. VCCT, prevention of mother-to-
by the lack of medical services, child transmission, PEP, emergency
but also by the intense stigma and Unfortunately, as foreigners are not contraception and case detection
discrimination associated with HIV/ allowed access to national HIV/AIDS of STIs and HIV-related illnesses.
AIDS within both the Egyptian services, refugees are left to depend Removing discrimination
and refugee populations. Egypt’s on local NGOs and organisations
The situation has improved over
estimated low HIV prevalence can be – such as Refuge Egypt, which
the last three years as the Egyptian
attributed to the strong underlying introduced a VCCT service at their
government has begun to extend
cultural and religious values within clinic in 2003. While anyone who
their services to registered refugees,
society. As a result there is a lack comes to Refuge Egypt can access
coupled with the new ARV
of awareness about the disease and VCCT, the organisation mainly targets
programme at Refuge Egypt. These
vast misconceptions with regard to high-risk groups within their family
examples of integration of refugees
modes of transmission and ways planning, antenatal and TB clinics.
into national HIV/AIDS services
of prevention. It is commonly For HIV-positive pregnant mothers,
are key to helping HIV-positive
held that those with HIV must be they help prevent transmission to
refugees in Cairo, not only for the
promiscuous or drug-users and the baby through caesarean sections
refugee population but also to help
that HIV is a disease brought in by and by providing milk formula
strengthen Egypt’s prevention efforts.
foreigners. As a result, HIV/AIDS to prevent transmission through
is a highly stigmatised disease. breastfeeding. Anyone living with However, education is vital in order
HIV/AIDS is also eligible for food to attempt to remove the stigma and
Before 2004, most HIV cases were packages and can obtain house visits discrimination surrounding not only
reported as a result of the mandatory from the clinic doctors. Refuge Egypt HIV/AIDS but also refugees. The
testing of blood donors, foreigners is the only organisation offering secrecy that is created by advising
residing for more than six months pre- and post-test counselling. refugees to reveal their HIV status
and nationals applying for work only to their immediate family
permits to work abroad. While Caritas, another implementing partner and doctor unfortunately only
voluntary testing was available, of UNHCR, performs confidential continues to stigmatise the disease.
those who tested positive were HIV testing for refugees on request This reinforces discrimination
reported to the Ministry of Health and and also provides support and within the community and forces
Population (MOHP), thereby greatly counselling on how to handle life the disease underground, affecting
discouraging the use of such services. with HIV. Similarly, AMERA, an prevention efforts. It is only through
In addition, foreigners found to be independent NGO offering legal education and outreach programmes
HIV-positive were deported within support to refugees in Egypt, provides that awareness can be raised and
48 hours in order to try to contain psychosocial support services for misconceptions dispelled to promote a
the extent of the virus in Egypt. seropositive refugees. Since 2005, better understanding of the situation.
MOHP’s NAP has allowed refugees
In March 2004, following discussions to be treated at Abbassia Fever Anna Popinchalk (annapopinchalk@
with UNHCR, MOHP’s National Hospital for HIV-related illnesses or gmail.com) is a student at Macalester
AIDS Programme (NAP) exempted infections necessitating hospitalisation College in St. Paul, Minnesota,
any registered refugee or person – but fear of deportation still who worked as an intern for
under protection of UNHCR prevents many from attending. Dr Harrell-Bond of AMERA in
from this same threat – but non- Cairo in 2007. The author thanks
registered refugees found to be Despite these initiatives, refugees UNAIDS, Caritas, Family Health
HIV-positive still have no protection have no access to anti-retrovirals to International, Refuge Egypt and
from deportation. As a result, many prevent the onset of AIDS. While AMERA for their assistance.
organisations, including AMERA, Refuge Egypt does have preventative
1. http://data.unaids.org/pub/Report/2005/unhcr_
encourage refugees to keep their HIV anti-retrovirals such as post-exposure strategic_plan2005_2007.pdf
status confidential. prophylaxis (PEP) for rape victims 2. These numbers exclude the hundreds of thousands of
and single doses of ARVs to prevent ‘closed files’, not to mention the thousands of Palestinians
residing in Egypt. UNAIDS/UNHCR: Report on Project:
Only in the past three years has the mother-to-child transmission, HIV/AIDS prevention and impact mitigation among refugees
Ministry of Health and Population there are no long-term therapeutic in Greater Cairo, Egypt. January 2006
3. www.mohp.gov.eg
(MOHP),3 with the support of Family ARVs, leaving very limited options
4. www.fhi.org
Health International,4 developed
5. www.theglobalfund.org/
FMR31 International refugee law in Mexico 71
International refugee
law in Mexico
Axel García
Significant gaps in Mexico’s legal process are increasing refugee law, whether directly
refugee vulnerability. or through civil organisations
and universities in order to train
In 1980 the Mexican government In the decision stage, the assessments professionals interested in this
created the Mexican Commission of of the Working Group are submitted field. The planning and follow-up
Aid to Refugees (Comisión Mexicana to the Refugee Eligibility Committee3, of training schemes for migration
de Ayuda a Refugiados – COMAR) a body that issues a recommendation officers instigated by UNHCR and
to assist refugees arriving from South to the National Institute for Migration the Mexican government should
and Central America. 20 years later, which will decide on the case.
Mexico became a signatory to the 1951 Those who have their application
Convention and the 1967 Protocol. rejected are entitled to appeal
for review. However, it is the
However, the legal system that administrative processes that are
was introduced to provide for reviewed, not the reasons behind
the regularisation of refugee the decision. Few of these cases
status includes procedures that have been heard in the Mexican
are not in accordance with the courts and the involvement of
international law of refugees and diverse authorities at different
has no provision for courts dealing points in the process has caused
specifically with migration or refugee confusion as to respective powers
issues, for specialist lawyers or for and authorities. It should be
official translators or interpreters. stressed again that there are
Furthermore, there is only one neither courts nor lawyers
NGO – Sin Fronteras IAP1 – in the specialised in this matter.
country that is devoted to this issue.
Challenges and responses
Centro de Derechos Humanos Fray Matías de Córdova
assessed by the Eligibility Committee of international, governmental, com.mx) was a volunteer with
Working Group2 which decides non-governmental and academic UNHCR Mexico and was an officer of
whether to approve the application, organisations is currently working COMAR in Chiapas and Mexico City.
ask for further details about the on the development of a ‘virtual He is a member of the International
case or reject the application. If an degree’ that would include subjects Association of Refugee Law Judges
application is rejected, the reasons such as migrants’ human rights, www.iarlj.nl/general/. This article
behind the Committee’s decision are international refugee law and people does not necessarily reflect the views
explained verbally to the applicant. trafficking. This will enable human of either UNHCR or COMAR.
He or she can then request a new rights workers to undergo training
1. www.sinfronteras.org.mx
interview with a different officer. and become better qualified. 2. Made up of governmental organisations, UNHCR and
However, the case will be examined an NGO with full voting rights.
again by the same Working Group. UNHCR should bolster its efforts 3. A governmental body of high-ranking officials.
UNHCR can be invited to work with them and have a
in Mexico to promote international say but does not have full voting rights.
72 Satellite imagery in use FMR31
Satellite imagery is becoming an increasingly important tool installation of camp health and
for the humanitarian community. security features. When people are
displaced from villages or camps
In recent years the international and its distance from and access by outbreaks of conflict, satellite
humanitarian community’s response to international borders, potential imagery can provide a reliable tool
to complex humanitarian emergencies risks from natural hazards as well to quickly assess the situation and
has shown an increasing need for as access to water and firewood. Up- the damage caused to infrastructure
accurate and timely analyses of to-date satellite images also provide on the ground. The time saved in
the location and state of displaced detailed information on current such cases is substantial, as is the
people. Satellite images allow road networks and affected areas in advantage offered by acquiring
the pinpointing of populations case of seasonal flooding – crucial visual references on the ground
concerned and the geographical for effective logistical support. before deploying field teams and
context of their surroundings. exposing them to unknown risk. In
In protracted displacement situations, all other cases, satellite imagery can
For protection purposes it is satellite tools can be used to monitor unlock information concerning areas
important to be able to access data on, the situation, support intra-camp that may be too remote, too large or
for example, a refugee camp location project activities or study the simply under restricted access for
security or other reasons. After a
massive earthquake, for example, it
is often impossible to know which
roads are still usable unless satellite
imagery is used. Lastly, good quality
imagery can be used to assess and
even investigate possible violations
of human rights in the context of
refugee crises or conflict situations.
Examples of use
Since 2001, UNOSAT – the UN
Institute for Training and Research’s
Operational Satellite Applications
Programme – has been providing
satellite-based solutions to the UN
family, IFRC, ICRC, NGOs and
government agencies. One of the
most recent and striking uses of
satellite imagery was in the wake of
Cyclone Nargis that struck Myanmar
(Burma) in May 2008. Within hours
satellite images indicated the path
and impact of the cyclone. In the days
that followed, UNOSAT provided a
range of images (see left) indicating
the extent of standing flood waters
and destruction of villages.
which the Lebanese government Maps depicting locations of fires are snapshots collected only once
could base their requests for were rapidly produced and detailed per day at best. Conversely, past
international assistance and funding damage assessments were made limitations such as the impact of
for the affected population. possible using satellite imagery. cloud coverage have been overcome;
radar satellites now allow us to
Operation Murambatsvina in In early February 2008, civil conflict see through clouds and at night.
Zimbabwe was a government-led in Chad forced a large number of
campaign to clear slum areas during people to flee the capital N’Djamena In future, more satellites with
which over 2.4 million people, and seek refuge in neighbouring higher level of details will become
most notably urban and rural poor, Cameroon. Satellite images were able available for civilian use, thus further
were affected. The international to detect the presence of individual improving access to this valuable
community had limited access to the people crossing the border, making source of information. Imagery from
areas concerned. The above images it possible to estimate the total space will not replace information
from Harare, taken before and number of people leaving N’Djamena collected on the ground but it is
after the event, reveal the clearance for Cameroon at that time. a useful complement to it, being
of large areas (outlined in red) in objective, available when required
several townships. As a result of Future potential and able to cover large areas.
the demolition of houses and small A common misconception is that the
businesses, most of the residents had cost of satellite-based solutions is Einar Bjorgo (einar.bjorgo@unosat.
no option but to flee their homes. very high. In fact, the cost has fallen org) is Head of Rapid Mapping,
steadily over the years and constitutes Applications and User Relations;
Following Kenyan elections in late only a very small part of the overall Francesco Pisano (francesco.
December 2007, disputed results budget of a humanitarian operation. pisano@unosat.org) is Head,
caused widespread violence, both Another common myth is that one Institutional Affairs; Joshua Lyons
in the capital Nairobi and in the can use satellite imagery to track the (joshua.lyons@unosat.org) is GIS
Rift Valley. More than 800 people flow of people, for example refugees, Analyst; and Holger Heisig (holger.
were reported killed and many moving on the ground. This is not heisig@unosat.org) is GIS Analyst,
residential areas were torched. correct as images taken by satellites UNOSAT (www.unosat.org).
74 UNHCR FMR31
Witchcraft and
displacement
Jeff Crisp
Reproductive health in
emergencies: new initiatives,
renewed commitment
Claire Tebbets
Reproductive Health (RH) in Emergencies Conference 2008 targeting issues of RH in conflict-
was held 18-20 June in Kampala, Uganda, to address current affected areas of the country allowed
Ugandan and international colleagues
RH issues in emergency settings and to contribute to the alike to address current challenges
expansion of comprehensive RH services in such settings. and opportunities in the field.
The conference, a joint venture and development from more “Make no mistake – reproductive
between the Reproductive Health than 50 countries worldwide. health care saves lives and changes
Access, Information and Services in lives. It re-asserts the dignity of
Emergencies (RAISE) Initiative1 and There was a strong Ugandan presence those from whom fundamental
the Reproductive Health Response in at the conference, with more than reproductive rights and human
Conflict (RHRC) Consortium2, was one-quarter of participants attending rights have been stripped.” Therese
the third in a series of conferences from host country organisations. McGinn, Director, RAISE Initiative
dedicated to the topic of RH in Uganda itself has a significant
humanitarian emergencies.3 It population of internally displaced Outcomes
brought together 485 professionals persons (IDPs); recent estimates Throughout the conference,
from the fields of RH in emergencies, place the number at nearly one plenary and panel speakers
global RH, humanitarian assistance million. Thirteen presentations echoed the sentiment that IDPs
and refugees must be included in
the planning and implementation
of services. Additionally, the
following key themes emerged
from conference discussions:
and sexually transmitted infection HIV and AIDS, services frequently successful implementation of
treatment, are critical elements of overlooked in crisis settings. In confidential, safe and measurable
gender-based violence response the Central African Republic, the response to sexual violence in the
and should be launched in the International Rescue Committee early stages of an emergency.5
early stages of an emergency. The (IRC) found that, despite obstacles,
public health community also coordination between primary 3. Both relief and development
needs to increase its commitment health care teams and psychosocial organisations should prioritise
to the prevention and treatment of teams can be established for capacity building and collaboration
Displaced people from Chechnya are still struggling to rights and entitlements associated
integrate outside the North Caucasus, despite being citizens with forced migrant status. These
efforts notwithstanding, IDPs
of the Russian Federation. from Chechnya living outside the
Some 57,000 IDPs have returned to property compensation and housing North Caucasus are still struggling
Chechnya despite the volatile security, programme. IDPs who received this to settle in their current places of
while about 70,000 remain displaced compensation lost their status as residence. A final, concerted effort
in the North Caucasus. An unknown forced migrants and so have had to is needed to solve the remaining
number of IDPs from Chechnya leave government housing. However, problems facing these IDPs and
are living elsewhere in Russia. the property compensation has continue the process through which
increasingly become insufficient for they will be able to enjoy the same
The Internal Displacement them to buy alternative housing. A conditions as their fellow citizens.
Monitoring Centre (IDMC) visited new federal housing programme has
the Russian Federation in early 2008 proven unreliable in providing IDPs Nadine Walicki (nadine.walicki@nrc.
and interviewed IDPs from Chechnya with permanent housing due to lack ch) is a Country Analyst at IDMC.
of various ethnic backgrounds in of funds and slow implementation. The report Struggling to integrate:
seven locations outside the North Additional funds should be allocated Displaced people from Chechnya
Caucasus. Regardless of their ethnic to the programme and IDPs still in living in other areas of the Russian
background, these IDPs are unwilling need of adequate housing should be Federation is based on IDMC’s
to return to Chechnya because they included regardless of whether they visit to the Russian Federation in
believe their physical security there have forced migrant status or have March 2008, and can be accessed
would be at risk. Yet they struggle to received property compensation. at: www.internal-displacement.
settle outside the North Caucasus. org/countries/russianfederation.
Discrimination
Difficulties securing documents Ethnic Chechen IDPs are treated
Many IDPs lack the documents differently than others when applying The Great Lakes Pact
necessary to lead a normal life. They to receive or renew documents and
struggle to extend or regain their may face other particular difficulties On 21 June 2008, the Pact on Security,
status as forced migrants and acquire on account of their ethnicity. They Stability and Development in the
the residence registration, internal have been forced to move frequently Great Lakes Region entered into force,
passports and documents needed by landlords unwilling to rent to having been ratified by Burundi, CAR,
to receive benefits they are entitled them for extended periods or to Congo, DRC,
to. The main reasons for this are register them as resident in the Kenya, Rwanda,
that their original documents were dwelling. Some claim they were Tanzania
destroyed during the conflict and denied employment because they and Uganda.
the criteria for extension of forced were ethnic Chechen. The police IDMC and the
migrant status are interpreted too frequently check the passports of International
narrowly. Without these documents, ethnic Chechen men, who must often Refugee Rights
IDPs are prevented from applying pay bribes since they do not have Initiative (IRRI)
for jobs and accessing services valid documents. This limits their have produced a
and entitlements such as state- ability to move freely in their area of guide for NGOs
provided housing, free medical residence and around the country. and civil society
care and their full pension. The organisations
issuance of documents to IDPs Some non-ethnic Chechen IDPs also to use the Pact
should be facilitated without reported experiencing differential to strengthen
imposing unreasonable conditions treatment in applying for jobs and the rights of
that they cannot meet because they renting apartments as a result of displaced
have been displaced. Procedures Chechnya being listed as their area people in the Great Lakes region.
should also be in place to ensure of origin in their internal passport. The Guide focuses on three of the
officials issue documents to IDPs Pact’s Protocols that are of most
lawfully according to set criteria The federal and regional governments relevance for refugees and IDPs.
and without discrimination. of Russia have made efforts to
improve the lives of IDPs living in The Guide is online, in English
Lack of adequate housing and beyond the North Caucasus. and French, at www.internal-
IDPs are still without durable housing These include compensation for displacement.org/greatlakes.
solutions despite a government lost or destroyed property and the
FMR31 courses, advisory board and donors 79
Manuel Modena
(12 years old)
Rio Coco, Miskito
Nation, Nicaragua
Benedikt Haerlin
Benedikt Haerlin
“I am the radio-operator of
San Carlos. We report on
the water level and rainfall
every day and we have
a great responsibility in
emergencies. But the radio
serves all kind of purposes
now: information on prices,
family news, appointments,
health emergencies
and, you know, a lot of
jokes as well: it’s fun!”
Ilia Wellington
Shop-keeper and
radio-operator, San
Carlos, Nicaragua
“The river is our life. It provides us with water, fish, radio stations that can send and receive the alarm and
transport and beauty. But sometimes it has brought can constantly inform us on the daily precipitation.
us death as well, and not because of the crocodiles:
the river has washed away whole villages. Yes, we are better prepared for the dangers of the river
now. But when the hurricane comes – what can we do?
I am in charge of the civil defence in the Waspam It comes every ten years or so: Fifi in 1972, Joan in 1988,
municipality. We collect information on rainfall, the Mitch in 1998, Beta in 2005. We have practised and we have
river’s water level and the weather forecast, and inform emergency plans now: the people gather in the churches,
our colleagues down the river Coco. We also work which are usually the sturdiest buildings, and watch the
with colleagues in Honduras, where the river begins. wind take their properties – but at least not their lives.”
Damaso Leiv
When the rain starts and the water rises, we have only
Head of the civil defence department, Waspam, Nicaragua
two hours to warn the folks downstream. Sometimes it’s
a matter of half an hour. Sometimes, the rain comes fast From Adapting to Climate Change: Practical
and heavy. 70,000 people live along the 700 kilometres Perspectives, GTZ, 2008. Online at www.gtz.de/
of the Rio Coco. We have now established a chain of 40 en/dokumente/en-climate-adaptation.pdf