Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2006 8
ii
1993
iii
Abstract
Since China became a net oil importer in 1993, Chinas remarkable economic
growth has fueled a demand for oil that has outstripped domestic sources of supply.
Chinas reliance on oil imports to satisfy its oil requirements has become the potential
threat to the national security. Therefore, The Chinese government advocated the Go
Abroad strategy and support overseas investment by the Chinese state-owned oil
companies to diversify Chinas oil supply. This paper focuses on the development of
Chinese oil companiesoverseas investment based on the political-economic
approaches to oil security. The research problem of this paper is: Why did the Chinese
government decide to drive the state-owned companiesoverseas investment? In what
condition did the Chinese government interfere in overseas investment activities?
What is Chinese oil companies obtained in their Go Abroad activities? What
Challenge will Chinese state-owned companies investment in overseas oil fields face?
The conclusion of this paper is that the incomplete business activities which the
governments intervention in the overseas investment will lead to cant ensure oil
security. It can be predicted that the Chinese state-owned oil companieswill have the
economic nationalism guide the direction of their overseas investment development,
but they will increasingly participate in the free trade mechanism in the international
oil market.
Key words: Oil Strategy, Oil Security, Outward FDI, CNPC, CNOOC, SINOPEC
iv
ii
iii
iv
vii
viii
1
1
4
8
14
23
27
29
43
50
55
61
63
73
87
97
103
104
121
136
157
167
169
175
180
187
187
193
208
223
vi
1-1 11
2-1 1990 2002 31
2-2 2003 40
2-3 2000 2005 41
2-4 2003 45
2-5 46
2-6 2000~2010 47
2-7 50
2-8 2003 2006
51
2-9
52
2-10 54
2-11 1991 2004 57
2-12 1990 2000 GDP
59
3-1 62
3-2 64
3-3 66
3-4 OPEC 67
3-5 69
3-6 2003 2005 WTI 71
3-7 72
3-8 93
4-1 117
4-2 135
4-3 159
vii
1-1 18
1-2 23
1-3 25
2-1 27
2-2 1990 2004 30
2-3 37
2-4 1990 2003 38
2-5 1995 2003 39
2-6 44
2-7 49
3-1 69
3-2 74
3-3 79
3-4 88
3-5 92
3-6 95
4-1 105
viii
4-2 112
4-3 122
4-4 1980 1993 124
4-5 1993 1998 126
4-6 1998 129
4-7 137
5-1 170
6-1 191
ix
2003 (China
2002
21
2002
73
(
CNPCI)( CNOOCLTD)(SIPC)
3
PK
10 15 (KMG)
PK 33% KMG10 18 PK 99.04%
10 26 QueensBench 100%
PK PK 2005
11 20 http://www.ycwb.com/big5/content/2005-10/31/content_1010133.htm
42
2005 11 20 http://www.worldjournal.com/wj-ch-news.php?nt_seq_id=1253089
2
(2004 6 ) 185
1
(Unocal)2002
100%62003 3
6.15 BG (
)
7
1995
8
(EXXON)(Mobil)
(BP)(Amoco) (Chevron)(Texaco)
(Total)(Fina)(ELF)
Gazprom
Sibneft
(InpexCorp.)
9 1998
5
1 400
172
6
2005 11 27
http://www.chinamining.com.cn/news/listnews.asp?siteid=11402&ClassId=154
7
( 2003 12 )
301 302
8
2005 5 (2005 5 ) 34 37
9
2005 12 4
2
1970
http://www.epochtimes.com.tw/bt/5/3/3/n833958.htm2005
11 20 http://www.takungpao.com/news/05/11/07/YJ-480817.htm
2005 12 4
http://www5.chinesenewsnet.com/MainNews/SocDigest/Economy/zxs_2005-12-01_659537.shtml
3
10
10
Erica Strecker Downs, Chinas Quest for Energy Security (Santa Monica: Rand, 2000).
4
(Pak K. Lee)
()
11
12
(David Zweig)(Bi Jianhai)
(zero-sum game)
13
14
11
Pak K. Lee. China's quest for oil security: oil (wars) in the pipeline? The pacific Review, Vol.18,
No.2 (June 2005): 265-301.
12
1997 ()
2004 9
13
David Zweig and Bi Jianhai, Chinas Global Hunt for Energy, Foreign Affairs, Vol.84, No.5
(Sep/Oct 2005): 25-38.
14
40 471 (2004 11 )
38-50
5
15
16
2005 6
17
15
48 3 (2005 9 )
25-50
16
(2003 )
17
2006 4 24
http://www.ccgov.org.cn/jcxxzxgd/zxgd20060331_gcyl_16.htm
6
18
19
20
21
22
23
18
2004 5 2004
5
73 78
19
298 (2005 6 ) 103
104
20
2005
1 2005 1
1 10
21
2005 7 (2005 7 )
77 78
22
Erica Strecker Downs, Chinas Energy Security, Ph.D. Dissertation, Princeton University, 2004.
23
33 2 (2003 4 )
59 79
7
1993
()
()
24
1. 1960 1993
2. 1993 1998
3.1998
()
24
(Unocal)
25
26 1-1
25
(Robert Gilpin)
(Political Economy of International Relations)(2005 ) 29-37
26
Erica Strecker Downs, Chinas Energy Security, pp.29.
10
1-1
()
()
(Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OECD)
(The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries OPEC)
27OPEC OECD
27
OECD (OEEC)
20 OECD
25% OPEC
90%
11
28
1979
(Exxon)
40 29
(moral hazard)
30
()
28
OPEC OECD
OPEC OPEC
(
2005 ) 29-32
29
(Daniel Yergin)(The Prize)(1991 )
579-585
30
Erica Strecker Downs, China's Energy Security, pp. 34-35.
12
31
32
1973 33
(
)34
60% 30%
31
32
13
(Oil Security)
()
(goal)(end)
(feelings and attitudes)36
(Weberster Enenglish Dictionary)(security)
37 (Oxford
Enenglish Dictionary online)
security
36
37
(2003 ) 153-154
(2003 ) 56
14
38
39
40
(zero-sum game)
41
42
38
163
59
40
()()
41
()()
39
15
43
(Barry Buzan)
Buzan
(security complexes)
44
(vulnerability)(sensitivity)45
46
43
165-171
Buzan
()
16
(constructionism)47
(social
construction)
(securitization)
48 1993
49
(threat)
50
47
(interpretation)
74 75
48
254 263
49
Erica S. Downs
See: Erica S. Downs, The Chinese Energy Security Debate, The China Quarterly, Vol.177
(Mar 2004): 21-41.
50
46 6 (2003 11-12
) 83
17
1-1
()
51
(Daniel Yerein)
51
United Nations Development Programme, World Energy Assessment Overview: 2004 Update (New
York: UNDP, 2004):42. Available Online at: http://www.undp.org/energy/weaover2004.htm
18
52 (David A. Deese)
Deese
54
R&D
55
56IEA
1970 80
52
Daniel Yergin, Energy Security in the 1990s, Foreign Affairs, Vol.67, No.1 (Fall 1998): 11.
David A. Deese, Energy: Economics, Politics, and Security, International Security, Vol.4, No.3
(Winter 1979-1980): 140.
54
IEA, Energy Security Document, pp. 3. Available Online at:
http://www.iea.org/dbtw-wpd/Textbase/work/2002/WSSD/energy.pdf
55
1999
10
56
145
53
19
57
58
0
59
0
(
)60()
20 61
57
(import dependence)
(2005 ) 30
58
2005 11 20
http://www.china5e.com/news/zonghe/200509/200509160177.html
59
1974 OECD 26 (International Energy Agency IEA)
60
Christian Constantin, Chinas Conception of Energy Security: Sources and International Impacts,
Working Paper, No.43 (March 2005): 5.
61
(2005 )
20
()
1960 2005 1993 1998
1960
1960 1978
1993
1993
()
62
7 8
62
21
()
63
63
22
64
1-2
1-2
64
23
1-1 1-2
( 1-3)
24
UNOCAL
1-3
25
26
1990
1980 70 2004 67%
1980 17% 2004 23%( 2-1)
1
2004
3%
7%
23%
67%
2-1
2005 7-2
http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2005/indexch.htm.
1978
1986
1992 1993
(
1992 ) 20-22
27
500
1990
1993 32.58%
1998
2003
2
1997
30%3
3
(Texaco)(Amoco)
(Unocal)See: Erica Strecker Downs, Chinas
Energy Security, Ph.D. Dissertation, Princeton University, 2004, pp.151.
28
1949 1965
5
18.6 1
5
6
1980
2%
5.77%7 2-2 1993
2005 46
5
1952 43.5 ()()
(1959 373.3
2005 1 6
6
1995 5
3181 37 38
7
2003 5 (2003 5 ) 2
29
19902004
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
8
1985
1982
2002 48
14 67 126
59.6 9
8
Steven W. Lewis, Chinas Oil Diplomacy and Relations With the Middle East, Post September 11
Update Report, The James A. Baker Institute for Public Policy of Rice University (September 2002):
3. Available Online at: http://www.bakerinstitute.org
9
30
59.3 10
11
30
12
14% 15%13
1990 ( 2-1)
2-1
1990 2004
5562
535
1360.2 680.1
383
252
355
630
126.5
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460
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405
463.3
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425
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430
191.6 410.3
340
841.6
467
1504.3 830.1
434
186.9 400.3
370
1501.1
435
1998 5570.4
430
186
410
183
2731
473
1452.1
871
230
341.5
580
238.9
387.4
2006 5 20
http://www.cas.cn/html/Dir/2002/05/09/6328.htm
11
56.45% 21.14% 22.41%
(26.4%) 26.17%
2000 6 2
12
1990 80.23%199 89.9%
8000 15
47
13
1997 10 6 1
31
2000
5300
2675
456
1401
920
400
185
377
375
1757
2001 5150.16 2668 450.75 1385.01 968.30 395.16 185.01 380.18 404.30 1822
2002 5013.1 2671.52 438 1351.15 1005.02 393.91 188.02 180.03 444.03 2098.60
2004 4640 2647.3 336
85.9
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500
187
320
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27 (1992
7 ) 62
2002 4 (2002 4 ) 48
(2005 ) 294
2004-2005(
2005 ) 99
()
5000
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2003 4840
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1994
2000
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14
35 7 (2001 7 )
40
15
( 2005 )
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16
41
32
2000 17
()
300
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1993 1994
17
2004-2005(2005 ) 99
18
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6 900 1400
2003 1000
43
19
2006 4 12
http://www5.chinesenewsnet.com/MainNews/SocDigest/Economy/zxs_2006-03-29_709667.shtml
33
20
22 2004
2005
23
1996
3
1 2002 5 16
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2 5 8
CNOOC 2250 1 2
20
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21
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12 31 94-A0305 4-28
22
(2005 ) 174-175
23
2005
9 12 http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2005/new/sep/12/today-int5.htm
2005 4 14
http://www.takungpao.com/news/2005-4-14/ZMTG-388884.htm
2005 4 13
http://www1.chinesenewsnet.com/MainNews/Forums/BackStage/2005_4_13_20_41 _39_138.html
34
24
152
25
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1997
26 1992 - 21
257.9 1993
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41/06 29
24
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26
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27
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28
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for Russian and Central Asian Oil and Gas, NBR Analysis, Vol. 9, No. 2(1998):17.
29
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http://210.77.145.59/servlet/Report?Node=41079
35
2006
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200
31
3 5
32
30
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2.3% 739 467 17.9%
2005 2006 1 20
http://www.coi.gov.cn/hygb/hyjj/2005/index.html
32
2005 5 31
http://www.peaceforum.org.tw/onweb.jsp?webno=33333332:5&webitem_no=1296
31
36
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(
2003 ) 3
37
2-4 2000
19902004
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
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1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
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2-5
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33
1995
2003 11.80%
9.06%()
19952003
16000
1.
14000
2.
12000
10000
3.
8000
4.
6000
4000
5.
6.
2000
0
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1996
1997
1998
1999 2000
2001
2002
2003
33
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( 2-2)
2004
3786.2 2641 34
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2000
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2002
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2004
2005
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84.85
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224
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12281.5
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2873.9
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1982
9967
*2005 1 10 11 12
2004 (
2004 ) 10
41
1.
20
33 1.8 2 20
35
2.
1978
GDP 1% 0.7% 0.8% 1991 2003
GDP 8.5% 7.03%
0.8236 15
GDP 7% 8% 4% 5%37
3.
1450 38
2.6% 20% 2000
2010 1
17.1% 13.2%38
4.
35
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http://www.future-china.org.tw/fcn/ideas/fci20040806.htm
36
2-11.
37
171 (2005 1 ) 30
38
BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2006, pp. 30.
Available Online at: http://www.bp.com.
42
39 2005 2693.71
1978 2557.87 13.83%40
13
2041
42
(coal-to-liquids)
( 2-6)
114.4 87.3%
9.2
48.743
44
39
http://www.tier.org.tw/13chinaeconomic/115.htm.
42
2004
2020 10
2020 10 2005 12 14
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2005-12/14/content_3920035.htm
43
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44
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296
43
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Robert Priddle, Chinas Worldwide Quest for Energy Security, IEA
(April 2000): 6.
43.3%
23.3% 4500
44
45 2003 ( 2-4)
16,645.7 1,792,646 573,753.3
10.2 46
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()
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()
()
(%)
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(R/P )(Reserves)(Production)
46
45
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5 6
10 ( 2-5)
10
0.90 47
2 3 4
12
20
48
2-5
/
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Amy Jaffe and Ronald Soligo, Chinas Growing Energy Dependence: The
Costs and Policy Implications of Supply Alternatives, Working Paper(April 1999)
47
Amy Jaffe and Ronald Soligo, Chinas Growing Energy Dependence: The Costs and Policy
Implications of Supply Alternatives, Working Paper(Houston: Baker institute for Public Policy, Rice
University, April 1999): Table 7.
Available Online at: http://www.bakerinstitute.org
48
Philip Andrews-Speed, Xuanli Liaio and Roland Dannreuther, The Strategic Implications of Chinas
Energy Needs (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002), pp. 28.
46
: 12.
2-6
()
49
2005 2004
2-6
2000~2010
1995
2000
2010
1137
2091
1440
2287
2267
2508
7493
2935
7326
3176
7246
3425
3106
5093
2830
6969
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50
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47
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( 2-7)
51
52
53
51
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2005 5 27 http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2005-05/27/content_3008313.htm
52
85.75 83.37
17.77
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53
2006 5 28
http://www.cpgp.cn/News/sjGDZLK.asp?id=1248
48
2-7
Robert Priddle, Chinas Worldwide Guest for energy Security, IEA
(April 2000):33.
54
55
54
2004 1 2004 1
2
55
4000 435
2002 2004 8
(Shell)(Gazprom)
(Stroytransgaz)
55% 45%
(2003 )
357 358
49
56
57
1%
6%
70%58 2-7
2005 10 35%
2015
2-7
(%)
(%)
1996
1388.00
15851.81
17239.81
8.1%
8.8%
1997
3385.00
16219.85
19604.85
17.3%
20.9%
1998
2920.00
16016.00
18937.00
15.4%
18.2%
1999
4400.00
16000.00
20400.00
21.6%
27.5%
2000
7000.00
16300.00
23300.00
30.0%
42.9%
2005
10000.00
18000.00
28000.00
35.7%
55.6%
2010
14500.00
19500.00
34000.00
42.6%
74.4%
56
50
2015
20800.00
19000.00
39800.00
52.3%
109.5%
2020
30000.00
18500.00
48400.00
62.0%
162.2%
2002 12 (2002 12 ) 36
2-8
2003 2006
/
2003
2004
2005
2006
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.6
5.6
6.4
6.6
7.1
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51
2010
IEA(2002 )
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EIA(2005 )
3.7
3.6
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3.5
(2002 )
3.1
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(2000 )
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IEA(2004 )
7.9
EIA(2003 )
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9.9
(2000 )
5.5-6.0
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IEA(2002 )
4.0
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EIA(2003 )
2.9
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3.0
5.4
(2002 )
3.5
5.1
6.9
(2000 )
1.8-2.1
2.5-2.9
5.0
Baker Institute(1999 )
Baker Institute(1999 )
Baker Institute(1999 )
2015
2020
2.5
10.6
1 0.137
Erica S. Downs, Chinas Energy Security, PH. D. Dissertation,
Princton University, 2004, pp.17, 20.; EIA, International Energy Outlook, 2005,
60
Jeffery Logan , Energy Outlook for China: focus on oil and Gas, EIAs Annual Energy Outlook
for 2005, Available Online at: www.eia.doe.gov/
52
1993
90
1995 61 1993
1995 45.5%
41.4% 10.8%2000 53.6%
15.1% 24.1%2004
45.5% 28.7% 2-10
1995 2004 50%
2003 2002 9
60%
62
2003 40.13% 2004 38.13%
61
2003
63
2-10
%
1990
39.4
60.6
1993
42.1
41.7
13.6
2.6
1994
39.8
55.4
0.8
1995
45.5
41.4
10.8
2.3
1996
52.9
36.4
8.5
2.2
1997
47.5
26.2
16.7
9.6
1998
61
20
10.9
1999
46.1
18.6
19.7
15.1
2000
53.6
15.1
24.1
7.2
2001
56.2
14.4
22.5
6.9
2002
49.6
17.1
22.8
10.6
2003
51
15.2
24.4
9.4
2004
45.4
11.5
28.7
14.3
63
54
1992
1993
2 (Talara)64
1970
2005
12,800 2000 65
(Thomas G. Rawski)
1997 2001 GDP Rawski
10 GDP
1997 2001 GDP 34.5%
5.5% GDP Rawski
GDP -2.2% 2.2%66 Rawski
1971 1999
GDP 1978 1995
55% 1997 2001
67 1998
64
2004 5
(2004 5 ) 75
65
4-3
66
Thomas G. Rawski, What is happening to Chinas GDP statistics? China Economic Review, No.
12(Dec. 2001): Table. 1.
67
(2005
) 45 46
55
68
9% GDP
GDP 2-11
1991 2003 GDP 8.5%
3.7% 7.04%
0.53
0.90 GDP
2002
68
2006 5 23
http://www.tier.org.tw/13chinaeconomic/energystrategy.htm
69
2006 1 11
http://env.people.com.cn/BIG5/8220/47101/4017796.html
70
2-23
56
8.8
7.8
7.1
7.5
8.3
9.3
9.5 8.64
-1.6
0.1
3.5
9.95
0.71 0.89 0.68 0.483 1.401 0.810 0.24 1.02 1.00 1.77
*
0.53
0.90
94-A0305 2-39
35 3 (2005 7 )
46
71
71
2006 7 11
http://www.tier.org.tw/13chinaeconomic/energystrategy.htm
57
1977 GDP
73%72
1980
1978 3826
36.8%74
1998 1160
3/4 75
2003 19,105.8
82.7% 93.99 76
GDP (
2-12)2003 1184
2.2 77
100 GDP 213
72
58
22 78
2000
PPP
PPP
2417
521
1724
276
423
414
364
357
236
270
214
244
127
221
131
230
924
194
889
187
2422
765
OECD
OECD
296
329
274
299
1023
816
423
377
1.PPP 2. 1995 3.
33%
()2003
8 (2003 8 ) 7
2005
79
78
60
65% 73%
2
(Exxon)(Mobil)(Texaco)
(Chevron)(Shell)(BP)
(1984 Chevron )
OPEC
3
OPEC 4
(Saudi Aramco)(ExxonMobil)5
1
(David Goodstein)(2004 ) 24
2005
4 21 2005 12 31 94-A0305 4-35
3
1970
1970 OPEC OPEC 1991
OPEC
OPEC
30 1 (2000 1 ) 61-67
4
1973 OPEC
5
978 (2006 8 21-27 )
104
2
61
3-1
/
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
2005 2005
19701
19649
19761
20033
20732
20655
-0.2%
24.6%
4973
5115
5555
6072
7086
7273
2.6%
8.9%
5577
5435
5359
5455
5288
5360
1.4%
6.4%
2763
2804
2714
2664
2625
2586
-1.7%
3.2%
2474
2456
2480
2503
2574
2753
1.4%
3.4%
2254
2284
2374
2420
2555
2485
-3.5%
3.0%
2229
2235
2282
2300
2280
2308
0.8%
2.7%
1937
2023
2067
2131
2206
2241
-0.2%
2.6%
2007
2023
1967
1965
1975
1961
-0.7%
2.4%
1884
1899
1837
1885
1896
1978
3.3%
2.3%
76379
77280
78655
81444
82459
1.30%
100%
75779
62
(OECD)
(OPEC)6
OPEC
()
40
13 2 (1983 10 ) 1
Daniel Yergin, Ensuring Energy Security, Foreign Affairs, Vol.85, No.2 (March/ April 2006): 69.
(NYMEX
(IPE)
NYMEX 60%(WTI)
50% IPE
(Brent)
(Dubai) Brent WTI
63
9 96 3-2
1200.7 2004 66
7427 61.8%
1405 11.7%
1143
30
3-2
/
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2005
P/R
() ()
742.7
2.16%
81.0
61.86%
140.5
*
-0.21%
19.94 20.66 21.89 22.01 21.91 21.62
11.70%
()
7844
7918
8022
8438
9266
22.0
59.5
-3.54%
9835 6.14%
11.9
4.96%
114.3
31.8
100 1000
() 42 1 (2006 3 ) 35
64
10.47 10.59 10.78 10.95 11.55 12.13
(%)
7936
7877
7899
7832
7890
9.52%
8000
40.2
1.39%
13.8
9.84
9.87
3.35%
6745
6964
103.5
6813
9.09
(%)
6721
6640
6367
3.25%
8.99
8.93
8.26
8.41
8.59
40.7
8.62%
902.4
OPEC
2.58%
41.89 40.96 38.83 39.96 41.13 41.73
(%)
73.1
75.16%
175.4
-1.11%
OPEC
47.42 47.45 48.36 46.42 44.65 43.67
14.61%
(%)
8013
8659
13.6
122.9
3.81%
28.4
10.24%
1200.7
40.6
1.
2. OPEC
BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2006, pp.6, 8.
OPEC 2005
25,119 2.5%
65
3-3
/
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
9511
2005 2005
9263
8970
10222
10588
11035
4.3%
13.5%
6536
7056
7698
8544
9287
9551
2.7%
12.1%
3818
3730
3414
3999
4081
4049
-0.8%
5.1%
3252
3306
3346
3401
3481
3627
4.2%
4.6%
8013
8659
9533
10499
11409
11844
3.7%
14.8%
OPEC
31393
30614
28882
30806
32985
33836
2.5%
41.7%
OPEC
35535
35463
35968
35787
35805
35408
-1.1%
43.4%
2006
(shell)
10
Jim Krane, Iraq Oil Output Lowest Since Invasion, The Associated Press, April 28 2006.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/04/28/AR2006042801082.html
11
IEA, Oil Market Report, 14 March 2006, pp. 15. Available Online at: http://www.iea.org
66
12 2006 4 213 / 2 14
/ 2005 7 (231 /)
3-4
OPEC
/
(2006.4)
(2005.7.1)
137
136
89
47
98
93
145
-52
400
383
411
17
-28
260
251
225
26
170
170
150
20
260
213
231
47
-18
83
83
73
10
1080
950
910
130
40
270
261
244
10
16
275
263
322
12
-59
3033
2802
2800
231
250
202
48
3283
3004
279
2005
12
2006 3 6
http://www5.chinesenewsnet.com/MainNews/Topics/cna_2006_02_20_07_01_23_961.html
13
100
28 11 (2005 11 ) 16
67
(Katrina)
(Rita)
2006
72.2 14OPEC
2005 2511.9 31%
15
OPEC
()
2004 2004
3.55%
162005
81,088 82,459 / 137.1
/
2004 5.49%
3.44% 1.47%( 3-5)
14
15
105 (2006 5 5 ) 28
BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2006, pp.8, 12. Available Online at:
http://www.bp.com
16
28 11 (2005 11 )
35
68
3-5
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
1.01%
0.21%
0.40%
1.63%
3.44%
-0.01%
2.62%
0.76%
3.07%
3.30%
5.49%
1.57%
-0.90%
0.91%
-0.08%
0.90%
1.47%
0.77%
0.92%
0.79%
1.18%
1.78%
3.55%
1.25%
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
-5.00%
3-1
BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, June2006, pp. 12.
17 2006 2006 1 5
http://www.cnfi.org.tw/kmportal/front/bin/ptdetail.phtml?Part=magazine9501-430-13
69
1920
IEA 2010
180 200 21
OPEC
70 15 20
22 2005 1 11 36.2%( 3-6)
2005 WTI 2003 17.9%
18
Fact Sheet: President Bushs Four Part Plan to Confront High Gasoline Prices, The White House,
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/04/20060425-2.html
19
67 192 53
20
IEA, Monthly Oil Market Report, 12 May 2006, pp. 4.
21
2010 2005 12 14
http://news.yam.com/reuters/fn/200512/20051214857591.html
22
2006 (
2006 ) 204 205
70
3-6
2003
31.13
18.9%
2004
41.44
33.2%
2005
49.73
40.9%
2005
53.05
38.7
2005
73.19
44.1
2005 10
62.26
16.9%
2005 11
58.32
20.3%
2005 1-11
56.23
36.2%
2005 12
2 7Available Online at: www2.cier.edu.tw/sem941202/941202004.pdf
1
120 10
0.5
0.75 23
2005 56 60
0.5 0.7 0.8 1.2
3.2 4.2 ( 3-7)
2000
23
2004 8 10
http://www.npf.org.tw/PUBLICATION/SD/093/SD-R-093-002.htm
24
2002 5
(2002 5 ) 35
71
90%
25
2005
2552 /26 15
150 1200 27
3-7
GDP
CPI
PPI
56 /
35.8%
-0.5
0.8
3.2
58 /
40.0%
-0.6
1.0
3.5
60 /
43.8%
-0.7
1.2
4.0
CPI PPI
2006
(2006 ) 213
2005 1756 28
25
2006 5 23
http://www.tier.org.tw/13chinaeconomic/energystrategy.htm
26
27
72
29
()
(H.J. .Mackinder)
30
1928
29
Brzezinski, Zbigniew, The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives.
(New York: Basic Books, 1997), pp.40-48
30
See: Mackinder, Halford J., Democratic Ideals and Reality (New York: Henry Holt
and Company, 1942), pp. 49-51.
73
(OPEC)
( 3-2)
$90
$80
$70
(swing producer)
$60
$50
OPEC
$40
Imported RAC
$20
$30
OPEC
Saudi Light
$10
1973
911
$04
20
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
80
19
78
19
76
19
74
19
72
19
70
19
3-2
EIA, http:// www.eia.doe.gov.
31
32
1973 1979 1990
1979 1990
()
1.
1973
2001 911
(1)
(2)
(3)
33
32
33
(2003 ) 153
(Toby Shelley)(Oil-Politics, Poverty& The Planet)(
75
2.
1973
34
1974
351975
(Arabian Oil Company)
36(Kavunji)(1960 2
)
37
(ODA)
2004 20
(Azadegan)
38
39
34
76
3.
1971 40
55% 1973
41
42
4.
1987 1993
1000 43
(Strait of Hormuz)
44
40
45
()
(H.J. .Mackinder)
46
1.
2.
(Gazprom or Lukoil)()
3.
Russian Route
(Iranian Route)
(Turkish Route)
Chinese Route(
45
Amy Myers Jaffs and Steven W. Lewis, Beijings Oil Diplomacy, Survival, Vol.44, No.1(Spring
2002): 124.
46
Mackinder, Halford J., The Geographical Pivot of History, The Geographical Journal, Vol.23,
No.4(April 1904): 431-437.
78
3-3)47
3-3
EIA, Country Information on Kazakhstan, http://www.eia.doe.gov
()
1.
481993 (Chevron)
(Tengize)49
1997 100
47
2 (2002 Spring) 88 91
166
49
50% 25% 20%
LUKArco 5% 2001 660
5%See: ERNEST& YONG, Kazakhstan Oil and Gas
Oil Tax Guide, 2003 Edition, pp.4-5.Available Online at:
http://www.ey.com/global/content.nsf/International/Home
48
79
2650
21
51
(Islamism)52
56
911
50
911 1 8 (2003 8 ) 16
17
51
(2004 6 ) 75
52
( 93 ) 104 105
53- 2002 9 36 Unocal, Amoco, Exxon
Pennzoil 11 (Azerbaijan
International Operating Company)
(The Eurasian corridor) 2006 5
2006 5 23
http://big5.chinabroadcast.cn/gate/big5/gb.chinabroadcast.cn/8606/2006/05/23/1905@1055854.htm
54
CPC 1955 5
(Novorossiysk)(Tengiz)
12 50% 50% Unocal Delta Hess
BP 8 2001 11 27
67
55
BTE Shan Deniz
56
Trans-Caucasus transport agreement is needed to solve Caspian problem, Oil &Gas Journal
(Oct.13,1997): 27
80
2.
2006
57
(TRAC-ECA)
(BTC)58
2003
59
(Caspian Pipelian Consortuum,
CPC)(Novorossiisk)
57
2006 4 8
www.eusa-taiwan.org/.../Taiwan%20News%20weekly/ Taiwan%20News%20Column/TNC060113
.doc
58
110 113
59
(Toby Shelley) 166 167
81
60
3.
61 1992
62
1997
(Aktyubinsk)(Uzen)
(Atyrau)
1999 (BTU)
2001
2003
(Kashagan)
(The North Caspian Constrium)63
(BG) 6.15
60
CPC 2001 9
See: Michael P. Croissant and Bulent Aras Edited, Oil and Geopolitics in the Caspian Sea
Region(Westport, Connecticut London: Prager, 1999), pp.199.
61
118 120
62
1996
2003 5 29
2004
63
ENI-Agip (16.67%) BG (16.67%)
Total (16.67%) ExxonMobil(16.67%) Royal Dutch
Shell(16.67%) Inpex(8.33%) Philips(8.33%)See: ERNEST& YONG,
Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Oil Tax Guide, pp.5.
82
BG
64
4.
1997
2001
911
65
2001 911
66
2002 6 11
10%
64
83
67
()
1990
68911
()
1.
911
(
) OPEC OPEC
69 2001
70 15%10
25%71
67
300
73 74
69
122 124
70
The National Energy Policy, the White House. http://www.whitehouse.gov/energy/
71
2006 1 9
http://www.wenweipo.com/news.phtml?news_id=CH0601040002&cat=002CH
68
84
35
2 5
(USAID)
161 (1000 ) 400
72911
(U.S. Coast Guard)2002 9
(TSCTI)
73
2.
1992
74
752006
4
6
72
http://www.mofa.gov.tw/webapp/lp.asp?ctNode=272&CtUnit=30&BaseDSD=30
73
85
3.
1997
(TOTALFINA-ELF)
76
2030
40%77 2003
10 78
79
(Korea National Oil Corporation) 65%
80
(Greater Nile Oil Project)
7 81
76
74
2006 6 2
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/world/2006-06/02/content_4635940.htm
77
78
2006 5 2
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2006-05/02/content_4501185.htm
79
2005 11 (2005 11
) 39
80
2006 5 5
http://money.udn.com/NASApp/news/newsShowContent?newstype=2&newsid=1352961&categoryid=
2
81
2004 7 2006 3 8
http://www.people.com.cn/GB/paper2086/12404/1115608.html
86
82
2001
2006
83
(Strait of Mandeb)
(Strait of Hormuz)(Strait of Malacca)(Strait
of Bosporus)(Suez Canal)(Panama Canal)
2003 1100
1500
2020 2000 /2030
2400 /84
(Sunda)
82
2004
20
(Sonangol)
83
2006 1 19 A3
84
Robert E. Ebel, Chinas Energy Future: The Middle Kingdom Seeks Its Place in the Sun
(Washingtion, D. C: CSIS, 2005), pp.56.
87
(Lombok)
3-4
85
3-4
Bruce Vaughn, China Southeast Asia Relations: Trends, Issues and
Implications for the United States, CRS, April 4 2004, Figure 1.
600
1.5
85
171 (2005 1 ) 35
88
86
87
10% 90%
88 (String of
PearlsStrategy)
8990
1.(Gwadar)
(Pasni)(Makran)
2.(Chittagong)
86
2005 1 12 3 4
88
50% IEA
2010 1.5 2020 2.5
89
String of PearsMilitary Plan to Protect Chinas Oil: Report, Khaleej Times, January 18 2005,
Available Online at: http://www.Khaleejtimes.com.
90
168169170171 054
2005 3 27
http://www.epochtimes.com.tw/bt/5/3/27/n867260.htm
87
89
3.2005 12 13
4.(Akyab)(Cocos Islands)
(Hainggyi)(Khaukphyu)
(Kyun)(Mergui)(Zadetkyi)
91
(Balochistan)
92
250
93
91
2006 4 12 5 6
2005 2 26 1 2
93
1700 20
1200 4 5 (2006
5 ) 39 41
92
90
94
()
1994 11
1998
(Angarsk)()2001 7
26
2005 2005 2010
2000 2010 2030 3000 2002 12
(Angarsk)(Nakhodka)
()
(Yukos)
95
(Taishet(Nakhodka)
94
( 93.5%) 6.5%
2010 83% 15%See: Robert E. Ebel, Chinas Energy
Future: The Middle Kingdom Seeks Its Place in the Sun, Table 4.3.
95
(2003 ) 361
91
3000
5000
8000
8000 96
3-5
Richard Giragosian, Sino-Japanese competition for Russias Far East Oil
Pipeline Project, IAGS.http://www.iags.org/n0119063.htm
2003
97
96
2005 2 25
http://www.cmrn.com.cn/html/5234.htm
97
2004 12 24
92
98(Skovarodino)
2008 11 99
3-8
(
)
()
2,000~3,000
5,000
8,000
()
20~25
36~50
107.5
3900
2047
920
2260
4130
1.
800
1.
http://www.epochtimes.com/b5/4/12/24/n757996.htm
http://www.globalview.cn/ReadNews.asp?NewsID=574
98
2005 12 20
http://www5.chinesenewsnet.com/MainNews/Topics/zxs_2005-12-12_663935.shtml
99
3000 2006 7 17 5
http://www.cnpc.com.cn/Paper/2006/07/17/plate5/e0887615-437c-4c96-8440-bd210d9019c9.htm
93
2. 16~25
2.
3.
4.
5. 3.
( 2005 ) 420
.
6. 765
7.
(Chardzhou)
( 3-6)
100
(Atyrau)(Kenkiyak)(Kenkiyak)(Atasu)
(Atasu)(Alashankou)
94
101
3-6
Robert Priddle, Chinas Worldwide Guest for energy Security, IEA(April
2000), pp.63.
(BTU)
102
1999
1997
101
Mengdi Gu, China wants more pipelines for improved oil import security, Oil & Gas Journal,
Vol.103, No. 1(Jan 3 2005): 61.
102
Richard R. Dion, Long view of Caspian Oil Export: Options tilts to Kazakhstan- China, Oil &
Gas Journal(June 7 1999):23-24.
95
2003
1032002 5 (CNPC)
(KazMunaiGaz)(Kazakh
oil corporation)(Atyrau)(Kenkiyak) 449
2003 5 7
9
(Daniel Akhmetov)(Atasu)
(Alashankou)2004 5
7 8 (Kenkiyak)
(Atasu)Kumkol 3088
2000 2006 5
104
105
106
103
12 2 (2003
3 ) 7
104
2006 5 25
http://www.takungpao.com/news/06/05/25/ZM-570252.htm
105
2006 5 21
http://big5.chinabroadcast.cn/gate/big5/gb.chinabroadcast.cn/8606/2006/05/21/106@1053111.htm
106
2005 11 18
http://www5.chinesenewsnet.com/MainNews/Topics/zxs_2005-11-18_653248.shtml
96
107
108
2006
107
Erica S. Downs, The Chinese Energy Security Debate, The China Quarterly, Vol.177 (Mar. 2004):
37-38.
108
Pak K. Lee, Chinas quest for oil security: oil(wars)in the pipeline? The pacific Review, Vol.18, No.
2(June 2005): 271-274.
97
(Dutch Disease)109
1988
53.7%
4.4%110
(Rosneft)
111
( 2004 41.6
2006 6 199.897 )112
113
(Viktor Chernonyrdin)114
109
110
(Toby Shelley) 75
111
44
http://www.cpechina.com/old/houtai/info_view.asp?id=1466
112
2006 5 9
http://www.cfen.cn/loginCt/pageprocess?pageurl=bzbm/2006-05/09/content_245035.jsp
113
2005 10 2
http://www5.chinesenewsnet.com/MainNews/Topics/zxs_2005-10-02_633767.shtml
114
(Toby Shelley) 80 81
98
(Hugo Chavez)
115
(Michael L.Ross)
116
1993
(Mosop)(shell)
(chevron)(Nigerian)
(Shell)117
(relative deprivation)
115
(Toby Shelley) 84 85
Michael L. Ross, Does Oil Hinder Democracy? World Politics, No.53( April 2001): 347-351.
117
(Toby Shelley) 108 109
116
99
118
2006 22.68 130
45%
119
120
118
2006 3 6
http://www5.chinesenewsnet.com/MainNews/Topics/cna_2006_02_20_07_01_23_961.html
6 2006 3 6
http://www.ettoday.com/2006/03/02/334-1911422.htm
2006 3 7
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/world/2006-01/19/content_4073704.htm
119
2006 3 6
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/world/2006-01/26/content_4101895.htm
2006 3 6
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2006-01/10/content_4034145.htm
120
(Toby Shelley) 60 64
100
1963
(Nasser)
1966
121
2006
(Eni)(Total)122
123
124
121
125
126
125
WTI
(Asia Premium)
92 5 (2003 5 ) 14
126
(2003 ) 82 83
102
(Outward FDI) 1970
1
1980
1979
Keven G. Cai, Outward Foreign Direct Investment: A Novel Dimension of Chinas Integration into
the Regional and Global Economy, The China Quarterly, No.160(Dec. 1999):859- 863.
3
41 9 (1998
9 ) 47-49
4
2005 9 26
http://info.jctrans.com/xueyuan/myyt/tzbg/2005926140026.shtml
2
103
1993
20%
( 4-1)
5
1990 2003
104
4-1
Baolei Guo, Yanjia Wang, and Aling Zhang, Chinas Energy Future: Leap
Tool Application in China, East Asia Energy Futures/Asia Energy Security Project
Energy Paths Analysis/ Methods Training Workshop (Nov. 4-7 2003), pp.4-5.
(7 )
(5 10 )
()
31 4 (1997 4 ) 104
105
(Michael D. Swaine)(Ashley J.
Tellis)
8(fragmentation of
authority)9
Michael D. Swaine and Ashley J. Tellis, Interpreting China Grand Strategy: Past, Present and
Future(Santa Monica, CA: Rand, 2000 ), pp.9.Available Online at: http://www.rand.org.
8
(
2003 ) 74 76
9
X A B D
E F
(disjointed)(protracted)(incremental)10
(
)
11
1.
(SDPC)
(SETC)12
3
13
2002
10
1980
Kenneth
Lieberthal and Michel Oksenberg, Policy Making in China: Leaders, Structure and Processes, pp.3.
11
Philip Andrews-Speed, Xuanli Liao and Roland Dannreuther, The Strategic Implications of Chinas
Energy Needs (New York: Oxford University Press, 2002), pp. 46-47.
12
1998
2003 5
13
Erica S. Downs, The Chinese Energy Security Debate, The China Quarterly, Vol. 177(Mar. 2004):
25.
107
45 50
2 2.25 14
2005 6
15
2.(MFA)
2006 1 12
16
3. (PLA)
14
2006 4 26
http://www.mlr.gov.cn/pub/gtzyb/zwgk/ggtg/t20060428_74047.htm
15
()2005 6 3
http://www.china.org.cn/chinese/PI-c/879932.htm
16
2006
2 8 9-11Available Online at : http://www.mac.gov.tw/
108
17
4.
1997
()
18
(Erica Downs)
19
5.
(DRC)
1998
17
18
19
2003 3 12 4
Erica S. Downs, The Chinese Energy Security Debate, pp. 25.
Ibid.
109
2001 9
20
(CIIS)
(CICIR)(SIIS)
()
21
6.
22
23
7.
2002
20
2006 5 20
http://www.cas.cn/html/Dir/2002/05/09/6328.htm
21
2001 8 10 7
22
2006 3 18
http://www.chinanews.com.cn/n/2004-04-22/26/428473.html
23
2006 4 15
http://finance.people.com.cn/GB/1038/59942/59946/4301802.html
110
242003
25
26
4-2
24
Jing Ji, Sinopecs move stirs controversy, China Daily, 5 November 2002.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2002-11/05/content_142385.htm
25
Blain Yi, Firm officials disagree with oil drain reports, China Daily, 31 January 2003.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/en/doc/2003-01/31/content_153868.htm
26
2006 7 5
http://finance.people.com.cn/GB/1045/3726463.html
111
4-2
27
()
27
(Oil Strategy)
112
1. 1963 1993
1959 9 26
28 1966 1978
18.6 1
5 1985 3,624
29%29
1986
30
1991
31
2. 1993 1998
1992
200 (
3303 ) 1993
28
1963 12
2005
1 6
29
1995 5
3181 37 71
30
2005 8 10
31
25 4 (1995 12 )
44
113
32
2000 1.45 1.5
1997
33
34
3. 1998 2005
2001 3
35
32
1993 3 15
1993 4 2 1
1996 1 28 1
33
12
http://www.usc.cuhk.edu.hk/wk_wzdetails.asp?id=560
34
1997 5 29 1
35
33 2 (2003 4 )
64 65
114
(1)
20 1000
(2) ()
(3) 2005 30
2010 40
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
(8)
(9)
36
2003
2005
37 2006 1
()
38
36
93 8 10
http://www.npf.org.tw/PUBLICATION/SD/093/SD-R-093-002.htm
37
2006 7 16
http://tbm.cna.com.hk/readcbp.php?ID=200607160116&v_news=200607160121,200607160116,20060
7160110
38
2006 1 9
http://161.207.1.13:82/gate/big5/www.oilnews.com.cn/gb/misc/2006-01/09/content_649796.htm
115
()
( 4-1)
39
39
Philip Andrews-Speed, Xuanli Liao and Roland Dannreuther, The Strategic Implications of Chinas
Energy Needs, pp.25.
116
4-1
40
40
2015 3% 8~10%
20%(CNG LPG ) 242
2200 2010 10 11 (LNG)
LNG 3000
2006 7 5
http://61.135.129.207/big5/kebaishidian/2006-02/21/content_490298.htm
117
1993
().
1993
2003 41
42
2.6 30
30 63 43
2002
41
118
442003 5
21.6
(90 )
2005 30 2010 40
4
2006 8 2007
2008 45
2008
35 46
44
2005 4 13 3
8 2006 6 16
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2006-06/16/content_4708438.htm
46
2005 9 10
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2005-09/09/content_3466845.htm
45
119
()
1991 (CNPC)
CNPC
1990 1997
47
2002
6941 165 ()
9%48
49
47
Gaye Christoffersen, Chinas Intentions for Russian and Central Asian Oil and Gas, NBR Analysis,
Vol.9, No.2 (1998): 6-7.
48
64
49
2.5 25
22.5
See: Erica Strecker Downs, Chinas Energy Security , Ph. D.
120
50 1998
( 4-3)
1950
1954
1970
1975
1978
1983 7
1982 2
1988 9
1998 ()
()
2000
4-3
http://www.cnpc.com.cn/index.htm
122
1988
1993 1998
()
2003 3
()(
)()(
)
51
30
2005 6
24
52
()1980 1993
1980
51
2006 5 23
http://www.tier.org.tw/13chinaeconomic/energystrategy.htm
52
2005 5 30
http://www.china.org.cn/chinese/2005/May/874752.htm
123
1982
4-4
(1988 )
4-41980 1993
Fereidum Fesharaki and David Fridley Edited, Chinas Petroleum Industry
124
In the International Context (Boulder and London: Westview Press, 1986), pp.6.
1981
(
1 )(
)(
1992 10 )53
()
()
()1993 1998
1993 CNPCCNOOC SINOPEC
()
( 4-5)
53
333 334
125
(CNOOC)
(CNPC)
(SINOPEC)
(SINOCHEM)
(SINOIL)
(UNIPEC)
1993 1
54
8 1993
1994 5
54
170185
126
1994 95
55 1998
1998 56
()1998
1998 7 27
()()
(
)
(
55
1995
11 23 2
56
1996
CNPC
127
)
572003
( 4-6)
58
59
1998 1998
6
602001 3
61
57
Sy Yuan, Yi-Kun Chen, An Update on Chinas Oil Sector Overhaul, The China Business Review,
Vol.127, No. 2(Mar/Apr 2000): 36.
58
2500 70%
2002
2003 12 20 92-B0108 98
59
1998 10 70
60
30 (2001 11
) 177 178
61
108 109
128
()
()
()
()
12
12
14
22
4-6 1998
1998 10 70
1999 1999
(PetroChina)2000 3
129
(IPO) H (
)622005
207.4125
61.5
63
1998
1990 H
(
2 )64 1999
2000 3
2000 10 2001 8
H A H
A 65
1998
2001
2 2004
1998
2005
1200
62
(2005 ) 198-199
2005 12 5
http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/t/20051105/15562096432.shtml
64
130
66
2000 12 (Shell)
2003 26.8
2004 200
(LNG)
1998
67
()
1.
1998
1996
66
NO.4(2005 8 ) 3-4
1998 7 28 2
67
131
58.31% 56.12%68
69
1995
70
2.
1999
(PetroChina) 90%
80 90 (Sinopec)
867.02 55.06%
500 71
(CNOOCLTD) 500 876,635
0.62 72(IPOs)
68
43 3 (2000 3
) 34
69
1998 Sinopec CNPC
1997 1998 6
()
7 1 (1999 1 ) 34-35
70
8%
2006 6 30
http://big5.chinabroadcast.cn/gate/big5/gb.chinabroadcast.cn/1827/2004/08/24/521
71
China accelerates shift in energy policy, restructuring of state petroleum firms, Oil & Gas
Journal( Jan 10 2000): 15.
72
2005 111
http://210.77.145.59/servlet/Folder?Node=8328
132
(Shell)(BP-Amoco)(Enron)
73
3. WTO
WTO
74 1998 9
9% 5% 9% 6%
16 0 2 3
3 5
75
1999 1500 2000 1.2
2 BP
1500 76
73
Mehmet gt, Foreign Direct Investment and Importance of the GO WEST Strategy in
Chinas Energy Sector, OECD (Mar 2002): 4, 8. Available Online at:
http://www.oecd.org/LongAbstract/0,2546,en_2649_33763_2085588_119835_1_1_37411,00.html
74
39
( 23 16 )
2005 39 (2005 10 ) 30
75
1999
2001 9
76
WTO 2002 2 (2002 2 )
19
77
9 11 (2001
11 ) 8
133
()
1.
4-2
CNPC 1996
15 Sinopec
2002 120
10 2001
33 23 78
2005
45%
79
78
19
1 (2004 1 ) 22
79
4 (2005 8 )
3
134
4-2
14374.3
4050.52
3704.95 (
41)
61.90
5069.29
8.85
154-160
3155.98
46.58
4275.50
16.08
119
163
318.34
163
326.70
103 2.8
1093
10343
(
10.95)
353
8323.11
(
13.3)
(1)
(2)
(3)(SINOCHEM)
135
(4)80
100
160
100
120 81
82
83
80
02267-S446(2001 ) 2-6
81
7 5 (1999
5 ) 28
82
2006 5 25
http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2006-05/25/content_4597173.htm
83
Amy Myers Jaffe and Steven W. Lewis, Beijings Oil Diplomacy, Survival, Vol.44, No.1 (Spring
2002): 115.
136
28
4-7
http://www.hkba-travel.org/travel_tools/tools_map.htm
137
1993
()
1976
1970
84
2000
(NIOC)
85
1996
84
1980 150
90%See: Yitzhak Shichor, Chinas Foreign
Relations in the Middle East since Tiananman Square, Annals of the American Academy of Political
and Social Science, Vol.519(Jan.1992): 98.
85
19 8500
2000 8 22 7
138
86
87
50
882004
10%(ChevronTexco)
89
1980
36
90 1990 1999
(cross investment)
91
92911
93
86
1996 1 1 3
1997
71%See: Gaye Christoffersen, Chinas Intentions for Russian and Central
Asian Oil and Gas, pp.14.
88
2005 1350 / 2002 92.8%
See: Ronald Soligo and Amy Jaffe , Chinas Growing Energy Dependence: The Costs and Policy
Implications of Supply Alternatives, Working Paper (April 1999): 4.
89
2005 7 13
http://www.china5e.com/news/oil/200407/200407130017.html
90
Gal Luft and Anne Korin, The Sino-Saudi Connection, Commentary Magazine, Mar. 2004. http://
www.iags.org/sinosaudi.htm
91
Amy Myers Jaffe and Steven W. Lewis, Chinas Growing Energy Dependence: The Costs and
Policy Implications of Supply Alternatives, pp.124.
92
2005
12 20
http://financenews.sina.com/sinacn/000-000-107-114/202/2005-12-13/05446591.html
93
2003
7 25
87
139
al-Khai B
(SIPC)
SIPC 80% 20%942006 4
95
1990 10
1997 6 (al-Ahdab)
9 2 13
1998
(Halfayah)
25 46 20
962003
2004
11
1990
1991
1992
http://61.135.142.194:89/gate/big5/www.chinanews.com.cn/n/2003-07-25/26/327959.html
94
2004 2 2
http://www.takungpao.com/news/2004-2-2/ZMTG-224054.htm
95
2006 4 25
http://www.cdn.com.tw/daily/2006/04/25/text/950425g1.htm
96
92 6 (2003 6
) 33
140
97
98
2006
()
1960 1970
(Norinco)
99 1995
1997
(Muglad) 1997
28.7%
()
97
1971-2005 45
3 (2006 5-6 ) 20
98
2006 7 17
http://www.irna.ir/ch/news/view/menu-334/0607135545154600.htm
99
Steven W. Lewis, Chinas Oil Diplomacy and Relations with the Middle East, Post September 11
Update Report(The James A. Baker Institute for Public Policy Rice University, Sep. 2002): 6.
141
100
101
2002
(Zarzaitine) 1.68
102 2003 (Adrar)
60 3.5 103
12
3,100 1042004
500
EPC 105
2003
106 2130 1.5
(TENER)(BILMA)
(ATLANTIS)
100
94 1 24 A13
Drew Thompson, Chinas Emerging Interests in Africa: Opportunities and Challenges for Africa
and the United States, African Renaissance, (June/ July 2005):22-24.
102
1.62 2006
7 12
http://news.eastday.com/epublish/big5/paper148/20021002/class014800018/hwz785639.htm
103
3.5 2006 7 12
http://202.98.123.203:82/economics/cjxw/20030715/200371521427.htm
104
2006 7 12
http://www.mei.gov.cn/page/news/news.asp?CD=106137
105
2006
7 12 http://www.cnpc.com.cn/
106
101
142
2004
1112006
107
BBC 2006 7 12
http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/trad/hi/newsid_4070000/newsid_4077400/4077430.stm
108
109
2006 6 14
http://www.hn51.com/news/view.asp?id=1395
110
5
143
112 6
20
(
)
113
()
112
4 23
130 (OML130) 45% 20
(Kaduna)
11
113
2006 5 4
http://www.epochtimes.com.hk/6/5/2/22875.htm
144
1970 2004
155.1 1992
2 2 ()1993
(North Twining) 2004
6 1
114(Embridge)
(Gateway) 40
115
(Synenco) 1.05
45% 45
10 2005 4 1 MEG
17% 20
80%116
117
114
1780
3035 / 1 30
2004 1 2010
2
(2005 6 18-24 ) 4 5Available Online at :
http://open.nat.gov.tw/OpenFront/report/report_detail.jsp?sysId=C09403545
115
720 Gateway (Edmonton)(Fort
Mcmurray)(Kitimat)
2010
116
BBC 2006 7 12
http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/trad/hi/newsid_4230000/newsid_4234600/4234640.stm
117
2006 2 11
http://www1.chinesenewsnet.com/MainNews/Forums/BackStage/2006_2_11_2_1_10_384.html
145
118
()
1191990
(Morales)
(Chavez)
120
2003~2004 9
2004
11 200
10
(CASCAV)
121
1222006
2004
15
118
2006 5 22
http://www.cetsgm.com/2006-5/200652292353.htm
119
VS. 2005 10 23 3
120
2006 1 5
http://www.youpai.org/big5/read.php?id=278
121
2004 8 17
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2004-08/17/content_1806469.htm
300 2.4 2006 4 19
http://finance.people.com.cn/BIG5/4313671.html
122
2005 7 20
http://161.207.1.13:82/gate/big5/www.oilnews.com.cn/gb/misc/2005-07/20/content_624540.htm
146
12 123 1997
(Maracaibo Lake)(Intercamop)
(Caracoles Block)(Zumano) 14
2005 11
20 6 3 6
(PDVSA)
13 2012
15% 45%124
(ALBA)
1999 400 2004
14 125
2004
1993 (Talara)
2003
() 11
2004 5
126
123
BBC 2004 12 24
http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/trad/hi/newsid_4120000/newsid_4124600/4124635.stm
124
18 BBC 2006 5 12
http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/trad/hi/newsid_4760000/newsid_4764200/4764241.stm
125
David Zweig and Bi Fianhai, Chinas Global Hunt for Energy, Foreign Affairs, Vol.84, No.5(Sep.
/Oct. 2005): 29.
126
2006 3 22
147
127
()
1991
1996
2004
45 36.6%128
129 2004 5
http://www.epochtimes.com/b5/6/3/22/n1262721.htm
127
2006 5 9
ttp://www5.chinesenewsnet.com/MainNews/SocDigest/Economy/2006_5_9_20_54_12_822.html
128
2006 5 20
http://www.mfa.gov.cn/chn/wjb/zzjg/dozys/gjlb/1716/default.htm
129
(
2002 ) 117 118
148
(KazMunayGaz)
130
2006 5
131
132 1997 6 40
(Aktyubinsk) 60.3%
1997 8 13 (Uzen)
1988 1999 10
2003 6
25.12% 90
133 BG
134 2005
130
2005 7 6
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2005-07/06/content_3180321.htm
131
90 176 65 202
70%
132
1991 2003
27 See: ERNEST & YOUNG,
Kazakhstan Oil and Gas Tax Guide, 2003 Edition, pp.4.
133
(2005 ) 100
134
21 2005 9 19
ttp://hkstock.cnfol.com/050919/132,1360,1449632,00.shtml
149
2006
(UNODC)
5 2.1 (Uzbekneftegaz )
Uzbekneftegaz
1.06
135
2006
136
137
30 300 138
2005
100
139
(BTU)
2002
(Kyursangi Karabagly)
()
1992
2001 2004
135
2006 6 15
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2006-06/15/content_4700884.htm
136
30% 21% 20% 17%
12%
137
1997 ()
2002 ()
138
2006 4 12
http://financenews.sina.com/sinacn/000-000-107-114/202/2006-04-05/211566239.html
139
94 3 31 A13
150
1402006
141
142
143
144
1992
1995 (Sindanco)
(Irkutsk)
1994
1995
1451997 6
140
2005 (2005 )
205 206
141
96 3 22 A13
142
2005 2004 9.5mmb/d 3~4% 2006 2~3%
See: Frank Verrastro, USSIAN ENERGY POLICY, CSIS (June21 2005):
2-3.
143
2006
3 14 http://news.sina.com/102-000-101-101/2006-03-10/0254219679.html
144
2004 2005 760
2005 440
16.9% 2006 1188
2006 4 12
http://www.wenweipo.com/news.phtml?news_id=IN0604090098&cat=000IN
2006 4 23
http://www5.chinesenewsnet.com/MainNews/Topics/zxs_2006-04-21_720560.shtml
145
2001
151
(Kovyktinskoe)
1995 Sidanco 1462000
4,118
2006 3
680 147
2002
(Rosneft) 20%149
2005 9 28
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2005-09/28/content_3555231.htm
146
Gaye Christoffersen, Chinas Growing Energy Dependence: The Costs and Policy Implications of
Supply Alternatives, pp.20-22.
147
148
2002 10 74.95%
1993 25%
18.6
(2003
380 385
149
93.5 (Rosneft)
20%
2005 1 29
152
()
(ASEAN)
1995
150
151
OPEC
152
1993 (ARCO)(13
)32.58%(Lasmo)(Nippon Oil)
(Oryx) Kondur 1995
153 2002 5.85
(Repsol-YPF) 9 5
4 (Devon Energy)
http://finance.sina.com.cn/g/20050109/12201280660.shtml
150
31
151
2001
(AFTA) 2002
2005
2002 1
8 http://www.npf.org.tw/PUBLICATION/NS/091/NS-C-091-009.htm
152
OPEC 96.8
2005
9 11 http://economy.big5.enorth.com.cn/system/2005/09/11/001116227.shtml
153
Gaye Christoffersen, Chinas Growing Energy Dependence: The Costs and Policy Implications of
Supply Alternatives, pp.17
153
12 (BP)
2.75 12.5%1542003 4
(Petronas) (American Hess
Indonesia Holdings Co.) 50%
30% 45%155 2005 7
(Pertamina) 15
20
156
157
2003
250 700
2 5 18 158
2004 6
159 1993
160
154
2007 260
http://210.77.145.59/servlet/Category?Node=40357
155
2005
11 28 http://www.petrochina.com.cn/chinese/xwhgg/chinesenews/200511280088.htm
156
2005 7 26
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/world/2005-07/26/content_3267494.htm
157
4.5
158
2003 7 4
http://china-week.com/html/01785.htm
159
2005 7 4
http://gov.finance.sina.com.cn/zsyz/2005-07-04/63666.html
160
2006 5 24
http://www.cnpc.com.cn/
154
2001 TG WOLD
(Pyay) 2004
9 D
2005 1
Golden Aaron Pet
A-4
M-10 11 600
161
2006 4
162
()
1972
2003 10
2003
20%163
2004 1
(FTA)
2003 2002 8
10 (LNG)
161
2005 11 25
http://www.cns.com.cn/news/2005/2005-11-25/8/656742.shtml
162
2006 4 17
http://money.udn.com/NASApp/news/newsShowContent?newstype=2&newsid=1347271&categoryid=
2
163
David Zweig and Bi Jianhai, Chinas Global Hunt for Energy, pp.27-28.
155
2006 25 10 2003
10
5 (ALNG)
(NWS) 3.48
164 ALNG
25%2006 6 -
165
2001
(Chevron)
2003 10
12.5% 2005
300 166
167
2006 4
(BHP Billiton)
(KerrMcGee) Outer Browse
WA-301-PWA-303-PWA-304-P WA-305-P
25%168
164
(BHP Billiton)
(BP) (ChevronTexco) (MIMI)
(Shell) (WOODSIDE) 2005 12 31
NWS 125.9 22
165
LNG
http://210.77.145.59/servlet/Report?Node=41350
166
2005 11
26 http://www.cpcia.org.cn/xl.jsp?biaoshi=40419
167
2005 7 11
http://finance.people.com.cn/GB/1039/3532027.html
168
Outer Browse 300 2000
156
169
1993 (Alberta)
21000 2006
4 5 http://news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2006-04/04/content_4380365.htm
169
Joshua Eisenman and Devin T Stewart,
2005 11 17
http://www.atchinese.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=10138&Itemid=47
157
20
81%170
(
)
1.
2.
3.
()
1993
()171
172(Talara) 100
( 1800 ) 80 173
170
16 (2003 11 ) 37
2005 6 205.4125 50%
() 0.885
8.66 2005
6 11
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2005-06/11/content_3070769.htm
172
173
Erica Strecke Downs, Chinas Energy Security, pp.147-148.
171
158
(Marubeni)
174
175
1996 50%
(GNPOC)40%
(Muglad Basin)
60.3%
(Intercamop)
(al-Ahdab) 56
2005
23 45 6.5
3500
40 2000 29 ( 4-3)
4-3
/
2001 2002 2003
2004
2005
1623
2129
2458
3011.7
3582
12803.7
831
1015
1304
1642.3
2002
6794.3
13
19.2
35.5
40.2
117.16
9.26
8
13.9
25.9
29
82.57
5.77
251
254
295.1
480
1510.48
230.38
2005
46
http://www.cnpc.com.cn/cnpcbig5/hzyjl/gjhz.htm
174
Gaye Christoffersen, Chinas Growing Energy Dependence: The Costs and Policy Implications of
Supply Alternatives, pp.12
175
1993 2 17 2
159
()
()
1988 1978
(American Coastal Corp.)
50%
176
22
160
1972 1992 5
177
2862
11,132 178 70%
179
1998
2001
1 (SIPC)
2003 5 SIPC
177
Gaye Christoffersen, Chinas Growing Energy Dependence: The Costs and Policy Implications of
Supply Alternatives, pp.15-16.
178
2005 20Available
Online at: http://www.sinopec.com.cn/index.jsp
179
500 43
2006 5 24
http://news3.xinhuanet.com/fortune/2006-05/24/content_4593223.htm
180
2004 4 28
http://www.people.com.cn/GB/jingji/1045/2473270.html
161
10 2005 1875
11,138 ( 4-4)
75%
500 50
183
4-4 2005
822.9
191.31
121.7
11,060.6
13,994
1421.42
355
99.1
1119.5
31.1
108.4
10239.9
899.9
552,229
799,115
69,455.7
139,642
39,558
25,323.1
:1 =7.1 1 =35.31
2005 2005
2005
181
2006 4 20
http://www.oil.gov.cn/oil/portalpubsys/pubsysservlet?articleID=00000012d001416513dfc&subjectID=
00000015a000fd6a2baa56&topicID=
182
http://www.sinopecgroup.com/business/30.shtml
183
500 46 31 124.3
2000 491 BP 500
234 500 2005 10 F-1
92http://www.fortunechina.com/_fc500/IMG/2004/1-50.jpg 2000 88
2005 4 14
http://news.xinhuanet.com/newscenter/2005-04/04/content_2782553.htm
162
184
1998
10.95 13.3 185 BP
1.33
60,336 45
( 4-5)
184
300
2006 4 5
http://business.sohu.com/20060405/n242645888.shtml
185
4-2
163
4-5 2005
68,421
(%)
BP
101,994 858,88.623
343,335
316,802
310,539
45.74
36.22
29.08
4.60
32.11
1.24
16,524
5,071
3,137.535
39,390
22,219
25,529
(%)
32.89
16.54
60.46
9.02
0.87
0.68
96,403
5,110
14,219.391
221,010
220,033
220,033
63,867
27,701
9,119.424
115,764
95,501
95,501
1,133,985
364,528 2,696
85,900
102,900
114,000
1 2004
1 2005
80 500 2005 10 F-1
92http://www.fortunechina.com/_fc500/IMG/2004/1-50.jpg
2.
http://www.chineseworldnet.com/scripts/na/stock/default.asp
BP
( 4-5)
60%
164
186187
188
189 128
130 45%
190
1986
(CONOCOPHILIPS)
(Marathon Oil Company)(Amerada Hess Corp.)
2004
200 191
192
186
2004 9
http://finance.sina.com.cn/b/20040830/1524985879.shtml
188
100 100
3000 See:
Online Extra: Q & A with PetroChinas Huang Yan, Business Week Online, 2 July 2001,
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/01_27/b3739059.htm?chan=search
189
2006 3 6
http://www5.chinesenewsnet.com/MainNews/SocDigest/Economy/xhw_2006_02_13_22_40_34_612.h
tml
190
4.05 10 BBC
2006 6 2
http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/trad/hi/newsid_5040000/newsid_5043200/5043220.stm
191
2006 1 2
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/archive/2006-01/w2006-01-02-voa52.cfm
192
2006 8 16
187
165
2002 5.85 5
193 1998
194
195
http://udn.com/NEWS/WORLD/WOR3/3473126.shtml
193
2005 12 28
http://theory.people.com.cn/BIG5/49154/49155/3889094.html
194
2001 25 (2001 )
20
195
( 5-1)
5-1
25 5 (2003 9 ) 25
1989 17
19
167
(Sheer Energy)(Masjed-I-Sueiman)
49%
3.48
(KerrMcGee)
(BHP Billiton)
(Sonatrach)(Zarzaitine)(Adrar)
75%
(Saudi Arabian Oil Corp.) (EmptyQuarter)
B
(
)
4 2006 6 12
http://big5.china.com.cn/chinese/jingji/1239204.htm
168
(PSA PSC)/(R/T)
(JV)(SC)3
5-1
90%
50%4
(
)
()
/
4
(2004
) 4
169
5-1
(
2004 ) 2 4
(ExxonMobil)
(Talara)
(Gbeibe)(Pirsagat)
2001 5 3.17
170
32
(Pdvsa) 1994
20
()6
()
66%
7%
15%7
(Khartoum)
1995
1995 1997 6
50 Z-6 100 8
9
2006 4 13
http://www.ce.cn/kfq/KFQSY/xw/200604/13/t20060413_6683350.shtml
7
127 128
8
13 (1998
12 ) 180
9
1996 1 1044 1996
4 1054
2004 7 1556
1971-2005 45
3 (2006 5-6 ) 21
171
1995 9
6 1
(Occidental Petroleum)
1997 5 (GNPOC)40%
Arakis( 25%)10 Petronas( 30%)
( 5%)(Heglig) 1/2/4
(Unity) 1 2 (Marsa
al-Bashair)11(CPECC)
1506 250
1000
1000
5A 12
2000 (Melut)(3/7 )
2002 (Fula)(6 ) 2004
13(Petronas)(Sudapet)
(Gulf Oil Petroleum) (Al-Thani)
Petroda 3/7 3/7 ()
4 14 3/7
10
Petronas 6000
15
2005 ( 35%)
PETRONAS ( 35%) EXPRESS ( 10%)
SUDAPET ( 15%) HI-TECH ( 5%)
15
16
2000 6
Jayli 5 / 50% 2003
500
2006 7 500
17
2004 27
2004 27
2004 35 / 50
/18
http://www.oilnews.com.cn/oilkj/kj_info.asp?id=3344
15
1/2/4 6 3/7
2004 6 28
http://economy.big5.enorth.com.cn/system/2004/06/28/000809831.shtml
16
2005 9 2
http://www.oilnews.com.cn/GB/misc/2005-09/02/content_630642.htm
17
2006 7 8
http://www.invest.net.cn/News/ShowInfo.aspx?ID=6949
18
Robert E. Ebel, Chinas Energy Future: The Middle Kingdom Seeks Its Place in the Sun(Washington,
D.C. : The CSIS Press, 2006), pp.48
173
19
()
1.
(Khartoum)Spla
20
4000
21 2004
22
2.
232006
24
(PetroChina)
100
19
PetroChina
(Spencer Bachus)
PetroChina 25 PetroChina 70%
29 BP Amoco 10
PetroChina 20% BP Amoco
PetroChina 26
2004 9 18 1654
11 4
2006 135
27
28
25
42 4 (2003 7-8 )
121
26
Human Rights Watch, Chinas Involvement in Sudan: Arms and Oil,
http://www.hrw.org/reports/2003/sudan1103/26.htm
27
PLA Daily2006 5 6
http://english.chinamil.com.cn/site2/news-channels/2006-05/16/content_475859.htm
28
157 158
175
3.3 1718 15
(ATLANTIS) 12
2004 (Sheer Energy) MIS
49%
()
1908
1951
1987
2004 1 1
29
8 3 (2000 5
) 46 48
176
1 1 2
1555 1000 30
16 2004 10
(Yadavaran)
25 1000 (
2.5 ) 50%
30
18 / 30 15 20
31
2006
51%
(ONGC) 29% 24%
32
(Azadegan) Azadegan
2000 30
2003
Azadegan Azadegan
260 2004 2
Azadegan 75%
(North Azadegan)
30
2 2005 4 20
http://www.china5e.com/news/oil/200504/200504200212.html
31
2005 12 22
http://news.xinhuanet.com/world/2005-12/22/content_3954455.htm
32
3 2006 2 17
http://www.sinopecnews.com.cn/shnews/2006-02/17/content_354289.htm
177
1200 33
2006 6
(Garmsar)
2500 5900
100
(tabriz)
34
2006
7.4 / 37.7 /35
()
1.
1996
2000
2001 10
(Sinopec) 1 5
Naka
(1)
(2)
33
2006 2 6
http://www.ce.cn/kfq/KFQSY/xw/200602/16/t20060216_6101055.shtml
34
2006 6 22
http://www5.chinesenewsnet.com/MainNews/SocDigest/Economy/2006_6_21_19_46_20_803.html
35
25%2006 6 6
http://www.cinic.org.cn/HTML/2005/1568/20062147943.html
178
(3)
36
Sinopec
Sinopec (ExxonMobil)(Royal
Dutch/Shell Group) BP Amoco
Sinopec
(BTC)37
Sinopec
38
2.
(IAEA) 2003
2 200
160 39
36
Center for Security Policy, Sinopec-Iran Deal Facing Increased Security: Markets Dimension
Could Spell Trouble For Wall Street,
http://www.centerforsecuritypolicy.org/index.jsp?section=papers&code=01-F_05
37
Ibid.
38
2003 5 23
http://www.voanews.com/chinese/archive/2003-05/a-2003-05-23-13-1.cfm
39
11 9
(2003 9 ) 33 34
179
1995
1990
40
41
2000
43 2002
5 2003
40
BBC 2006 5 19
http://www.atchinese.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=16766&Itemid=38
41
BBC 2006 5 23
http://www.atchinese.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=16854&Itemid=37
42
EIA, Country Analysis Briefs: Iran, http://www.eia.doe.gov/cabs/iran.html
43
(
2006 ) 17 1889 90
180
5.5% 2006 5
(Rosneft) 6,622 44
1.
Rosneft BP
45(OMV)
(MOL) (Kazmunaigaz)
(ONGC)46 30
Rosneft
51% Rosneft 47
48
2.
(ONGC)
(Al Furat) 38 5.73 49
44
Rosneft 2006 7 19
http://www.atchinese.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=19365&Itemid=32
45
(TNK-BP)
26 600
46
Itera
47
2006 6 22
http://finance.people.com.cn/BIG5/1038/4515346.html
48
750
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/world/2006-06/17/content_4710120.htm
49
2005 12 22
181
51
()
1.
2005 3 (Unocal)52
180
(ChevronTexco) 167 53
10 185 54
20 25
http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/news.xinhuanet.com/stock/2005-12/22/content_3954734.htm
50
2006 5 6
http://www.cna.tv/stories/economicnews/view/39182/1/b5/.html
51
94 1 12 A13
52
Unocal Corp.
53
7 28 174 25% 40%
54
(60 ) 30
30 60
182
55
90 141
56 8 3
(SIPC) 2004
(FIOC) 1.53 FIOC
6 3.4
Sazankurak 57
FIOC
2.
17.5 70%
- (BTU)
55
BBC 2005 7 14
http://news.bbc.co.uk/chinese/trad/hi/newsid_4680000/newsid_4681600/4681613.stm
56
No.5(2005 10 ) 45 46
57
FIOC
2000 FIOC 5
1 20
2005 4 25 http://gov.finance.sina.com.cn/zsyz/2005-04-25/58738.html
183
58
500
500 2000
59
()
180
185 164
1.
71%
60
2.
60%
61
58
2005 10 12 7
No.4(2005 8 ) 35
60
Wenran Jiang, The Unocal Bid: Chinas Treasure Hunt of the Century, China Brief, Vol. V, No.16
(July 19, 2005): 1-2.
61
Chinese Strength, U.S. Weakness, New York Times, Jun 26, 2005, pp. 4.11.
59
184
1%
3.
3/5
30%
62
63
(CIFIUS)
64
1/365
()
9
(ONGC)
62
Wayne Arnold, Asian Reaction to Unocal Bid Is Muted, New York Times, 29 June, 2005.
2005 7 15 A13
64
Richard W. Stevenson, With Bid for Unocal, U.S. Struggles on China Policies, New York Times,
26 June, 2005.
65
5-6
63
185
(ENISPA)(Chervon) 55 41.8
66
(Lukoil)
PK (TurgaiPetroleum)
67
5
(KazMunayGaz)
55 33.3%
KazMunayGaz( 14 ) PK
68
69
70
66
PK 1991 7 14 30.88 29
67
Richard Orange, Lukoil threatens to disrupt Chinese bid for PetroKazakhstn, Knight Ridder
Tribune Business News (Washington), Sep. 25, 2005, pp. 1.
68
PK (Shymkent)
Shymkent
33% PK 2005 10 17
http://www5.chinesenewsnet.com/MainNews/SocDigest/Economy/2005_10_17_16_34_42_837.html
69
PK332006 7 12
http://news.sina.com.hk/cgi-bin/news/show_news.cgi?ct=finance&type=cnfinance&date=2006-07-12&
id=2086459
70
25 2 (2005 12 )
2 4
186
()
1990
2005 10
35%
2030 74%
2003
1998
187
()
1.
2.
3.
()
2005 1875
660 /
2
(
188
()
189
( 6-1)
P
Q
190
6-1
1993
1993
1998
191
()
()
1993
()
192
12
3
1979
5 6 (Nations
Energy Corp.)(Karazhanbas)
2006 6 6
http://www5.chinesenewsnet.com/MainNews/SocDigest/Economy/2006_6_5_23_26_20_159.html
2
2003 1.05
Atlantis
1 16 2020
7000 2006 6 18
http://finance.eastday.com/eastday/finance/node77285/node77756/node141964/userobject1ai2113087.h
tml
3
6
2006 6 1
http://news.sina.com.hk/cgi-bin/news/show_news.cgi?ct=finance&type=cnfinance&date=2006-06-01&
id=2001177
193
1960
1981
(Saleh)4
2000 5
? 45 3 (2001 9 ) 20
1700 3000
2006 7 31 http://udn.com/NASApp/rightprt/prtnews?newsid=3448469
2006 8 6
http://www.atchinese.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=20189&Itemid=35
6
2006 8 9
http://udn.com/NASApp/rightprt/prtnews?newsid=3462262
194
1978 2004
%
1978
70.3
70.7
23.7
22.7
2.9
3.2
3.1
3.4
1980
69.4
72.2
23.8
20.7
3.0
3.1
3.8
1985
72.8
75.8
20.9
17.1
2.0
2.2
4.3
4.9
1989
74.1
76.1
19.3
17.1
2.0
2.1
4.6
4.7
1990
74.2
76.2
19.0
16.6
2.0
2.1
4.8
5.1
1991
74.1
76.1
19.2
17.1
2.0
4.7
4.8
1992
74.3
75.7
18.9
17.5
2.0
1.9
4.8
4.9
1993
74.0
74.7
18.7
18.2
2.0
1.9
5.3
5.2
1994
74.6
75
17.6
17.4
1.9
1.9
5.9
5.7
1995
75.3
74.6
16.6
17.5
1.9
1.8
6.2
6.1
1996
75.2
74.7
17.0
18
2.0
1.8
5.8
5.5
1997
74.1
71.7
17.3
20.4
2.1
1.7
6.5
6.2
1998
71.9
69.6
18.5
21.5
2.5
2.2
7.1
6.7
1999
68.3
68
21.0
23.2
3.1
2.2
7.6
6.6
2000
66.6
66.1
21.8
24.6
3.4
2.5
8.2
6.8
2001
68.6
65.3
19.4
24.3
3.3
2.7
8.7
7.7
2002
71.2
65.6
17.3
24
3.1
2.6
8.4
7.8
2003
74.5
67.6
15.1
22.7
2.9
2.7
7.5
2004
75.6
67.7
13.5
22.7
3.0
2.6
7.9
2005 7-1
7-2
http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2005/indexch.htm
195
1985.5.28
CSR
(Esso
China Upstream)
1993
NW
1213
SE 13 (Esso China)
(Sumitomo)(Indonesia
Petroleum)
14
14
1993.2
Zhaodong
Block
(Agip)
1993.2
1993.10
(Canadian
Fracmaster)
1995.12
(Texaco China)
1996.8
13(1-2)
(Sunwing)
2001.12
1996.7
13(3-6)
(Sunwing)
1- 5
HANIUM
EOR
196
1996.8
1997.2
(Esso China)
1997.9
(3 )
1997.9
(2 )
(Santa Fe Energy
1997.11
Resources)
MICROBES
1997.12
(Amoco Orient
Petroleum)(Energy
Development)
Fletcher Challenge Exploration,
(Santa Fe Energy Resources),
Getuo
Laopu
(Pecten Orient)
Kerr-McGee China Petroleum,
(Energy Development)
1999.2
(Shell Exploration)
2000.5
(Agip)
2002.7
EOR
EOR
Amy Jaffe and Ronald Soligo, Chinas Growing Energy
Dependence: The Costs and Policy Implications of Supply Alternatives, Working
Paper (April 1999): 10.Available online at: http://www.bakerinstitute.org
http://www.cnpc.com.cn.
197
1995 2003
1995 1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001 2002
2003
19871.8
21072.9
22439.3
22838.3 24779.8
27126.1
(%)
8.54
12.94
0.64
6.33
6.48
1.78
8.5
9.47
1233.7
1256.3
1294.7
1422.1
1496.7
1568.5
1674.1
1681.4
1.7
2.66
3.06
9.84
5.25
4.8
6.73
4.4
() 4349.3
10020.2
11304.2
10870.8
10852.8
11404.7
11388.6 12489.6
13686.5
(%)
7.18
12.81
-3.83
-0.17
5.09
-0.14
9.67
9.58
() 242.8
257.8
285.3
293.9
323
344.3
372.3
410.4
430.6
(%)
6.18
10.67
3.01
9.9
6.59
8.13
10.23
4.92
() 2863.6
2937.7
3733
4245.3
5004.3
5509.4
5692.9
6156.6
7093.2
(%)
2.59
27.07
13.72
17.88
10.09
3.33
8.15
15.21
367.9
416.6
426
537.2
545
567.4
593
682.3
10.18
13.24
2.26
26.1
1.45
4.11
4.51
15.06
() 1390.3
1752.3
1758
1704.8
1800.3
1882.7
1953.7
1978.6
1916.4
(%)
26.04
0.33
-3.03
5.6
4.58
3.77
1.27
-3.14
() 682
876.6
938.3
983.3
1133.1
1256.5
1294.8
1477.5
1635.8
(%)
28.53
7.04
4.8
15.23
10.89
3.05
14.11
10.71
1. () 1203.2
(%)
2.
3.
4.
5. () 333.9
(%)
6.
7.
(%)
6.84
4.81
5.02
7.45
12.26
9.61
4.43
11.8
198
1999 2004
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2004
(%)
249.70
573.02
877.84
1139.04
1517.62
1690.1
14.04
394.93
700.05
1084.70
1063.00
1238.89
1297.4
10.78
502.08
1566.08
814.04
804.59
927.74
1602.6
13.31
413.22
361.24
228.69
226.17
699.68
481.6
4.00
33.04
43.34
145.98
106.97
90.72
122.9
1.02
159.89
132.56
45.76
67.58
13.8
0.11
97.42
318.32
37.21
53.68
128.3
1.07
43.05
64.98
86.35
131.7
1.09
1690.39
3764.99
3385.99
3439.22
4649.35
5468.4
26.61
331.36
497.34
642.56
625.8
565.7
4.70
287.60
863.66
379.89
570.51
1010.1
1588.9
13.20
81.27
91.59
216.64
178.02
146.02
341.6
2.84
38.47
145.44
64.16
104.73
338.93
467.9
3.89
136.92
118.66
77.25
48.79
12.20
25.32
42.67
81.53
35.07
24.04
12.8
0.11
13.26
13.00
25.04
24.04
131.2
1.09
65.18
45.73
14.70
27.76
53.6
0.45
724.87
1694.86
1354.54
1579.67
2219.26
3460.3
151.19
315.85
336.24
354.28
350.5
524.4
4.36
395.29
457.52
264.51
323.57
333.37
336.2
2.79
24.74
74.43
89.95
164.87
203.10
165.6
1.38
27.55
75.39
129.58
135.85
86.5
0.72
90.10
110.84
70.91
115.64
177.93
147.9
1.23
28.51
22.68
73.95
161.02
89.4
0.74
14.92
39.06
7.60
15.79
8.06
683.17
1061.31
868.26
185.01
1385.35
1388.3
199
57.23
147.67
176.60
302.96
525.48
1056.1
8.77
200.99
147.78
91.57
211.06
93.18
197.1
1.64
219.61
104.15
50.20
122.49
20.16
15.2
0.13
36.04
49.08
33.34
33,42
0.01
100.01
327.3
2.72
74.42
64.96
100.36
119.82
125.8
1.04
562.94
505.36
416.75
736.87
858.66
1721.5
3661.37
7026.53
6025.54
6940.77
9112.63
12038.6
100
35 3 (2005 7 ) 50 51
1949
1950
1954
1958
1970
1975
1978
1979
1982
1988
1993
1998
2000
2003 30
2005
34 1 (2004 1 ) 5
2005 47
200
( 1992 2006 6 )
Petrokazakhstan 41.6
2005.8.22
(10.26 )
2003.8
Nimr Petroleum
(North Buzachi) 35
2004.8
1.53
2004.3
(BG)
16.67%
12.3
1997.10
43
60.3%
1997
Uzen
2006.6
5 2.1
2005.7
1.06
2003
(SOCAR)
Pirsagat
201
10
65%
13
1.4
2003
150.16
25.12%
2002
Kyursangi
Karabagly
30%
5200
1997
1400
2002
5200
2006.7
35
Rosneft
2001
2003.5
2005.4
SOCO
1998
3000
2004.1
EmptyQuarter
4
B
2006.6
Saudi Arabian
Oil Corp.
20~59
(Garmsar)
2004
2004.5
(Yadavaran)
Masjed-I-Sueiman
49%
2001
Zavareh-Kanshan
1999
Balal (
202
700
1.21
1300
Sheer Energy
1996~199
7
Al Ahdab 50%
13
2004
10%
2001
S2
700
2003
Shabwah
(Amakeen)
1000
2005.12
5.76
2002.12
(Gbeibe)
30
1998
51%
2000
3/7
23
(
)
1997
1/2/4
1999.5.31
1506
1100
1997
1/2/4
2006.5
20
2005 8
203
2006.1
(SAPETRO)
OML130
45%
22.68
2006.1.27
OPL229 35
6000
2003
1.5
2005
5
1997~1998
Chad
2003
3.5
12
3100
2002.10
Zarzaitine
75%
5.25
(Sonatrach)
25%
2006.6
17 27.5% 33
18 40%
15 20%
(
75%
25%)
2002
Atlantis
12
2006.5
OPL721732
281 471
204
2.14
22.5
2006.1
OML130
45%
22.68
2005
17-4
2002.6
525
2006.5
1 9 10AL2
L3L4 6
2003
CIVE-DEN
H
25%
2005
Gateway 2500
2005.4
()
2005.5
1993.7.15
1100
(
)
1993.10.23
~1995.7.25
2500
20032005
45%
2005.8
6000
OPL229
35%
1.45
()
205
1.05
()
1991
1-AB
/8 /111
113
(Zumano)
1997
(Intercamop)
(Caracoles)
3.85
2006
(PDVSA)
2003
Lumbaqui
11
2005
ENCANA
1.42
2006
CAScav 2.4
2006.4
Outer Browse
WA-301-P
WA-303-P
BHP
Billiton
WA-304-P
WA-305-P 25%
2003.5.15
3.48
NWS
25%
19941995
160 Kamusi
2005.11
2001.11
Pyay
(
40%)
206
6000
2006.5
Pyay
( 6000
)
2003.4
(AHIH)50%
2002.1.18
5.85
RepsolYPF
2002.4
(Devon Energy)
2.62
2002.2.20
BP
2.75
1993
ARCO
32.58%
1995
6.93%
1993.3.5
8200
2004
9810
BP
207
()
(Daniel Yergin)(THE PRIZE)
1991
(David Goodstein)(Out of Gas: The End of the
Age of Oil)2004
(Jack Donnelly)(Realism and
International Relations)2002
(Robert Gilpin)(Political
Economy of International Relations)1994
(Robert O Keohane)(Joseph Nye)
(Power and Interdependence: World Politics in Tratition)
2005
(Stephen Leeb)(Donna Leeb)
(The Oil Factor: Protect
Yourself-and Profit-From the Coming Energy Crisis)2004
1981
()
2000
2005
--------------------------------------------------------
2005
2004
20052005
2005
2005
2002
2006
2006
2005
2005
2003
2002
2003
2006
2005
209
2003
2005
1997
,2005
2005
2004
2005
1998
2003
2004
2004
2004
2004
2004
2003
1992
2003
NO.8(2004~2005)
2005
2004
21
2002
210
----------~ O O
1996
2003
2003
()
1.
48 3 (2005
9 ) 25 46
6 1 (2004 2 )
3 7
2005 39 (2005 10 )
30 32
2005 2 (2005
2 ) 81 82
()2003 8 (2003
8 ) 5 7
28 11 (2005 11 )
14 19
1998 10 67 71
2002
4 (2002 4 ) 45 50
12
211
2 (2003 3 ) 1 12
46 6
(2003 11 ) 75 108
35 3 (2005 7 ) 42 61
28 11 (2005
11 ) 30 36
911 1 8 (2003
8 ) 14 27
105 (2006 5 5 )
28 32
92 5 (2003 5 ) 14
2005 11
(2005 11 ) 39
2003 4 (2003 4 ) 17 21
()
7 1 (1999 1 ) 33 37
43
3 (2000 3 ) 27 56
2005 1 (2005
1 ) 54 56
4 6 (2006 6 ) 27 39
26 6
212
2000 1 (2000 1 ) 1 15
1971-2005
45 3 (2006 5-6 ) 1 35
---------
13 (1998 12 ) 163 183
41
9 (1998 9 ) 35 85
34 1 (2004 1 ) 2 18
NO.4(2005
8 ) 3 4
------------ No.5(2005 10 ) 41 50
7
5 (1999 5 ) 25 28
61 (2004 6 ): 54 58
2005 11-12
(2005 11 -12 ) 1 10
2006 2 8 8 13
25 5 (2003 9 ) 22 27
76 (2004 6 )
73 78
213
2003 4
(2003 4 ) 20 24
--------2002 2
(2002 2 ) 36 39
18 1 (2000
2 ) 24 27
171 (2005 1 )
33 35
25 2 (2005
12 ) 1 4
9
11 (2001 11 ) 7 9
2003 5 (2003
5 ) 1 9
40 471 (2004
11 ) 38 50
8 3
(2000 5 ) 46 48
11 9 (2003 9 ) 33 37
4 5 (2006
5 ) 37 52
1994 5 (1994 5 ) 1 5
2 (2002 Spring)
82 102
214
--------- 30 1 (2000
1 ) 60 74
2002
5 (2002 5 ) 33 38
171 (2005 1 )
30 32
25 4 (1995
10 ) 32 51
2005 7 (2005
7 ) 77 78
30 1 (2000 1 ) 75 91
20 4 (2005 4 ) 88 97
No.4(2005 8 )
34 40
? 45 3 (2001 9
) 15 21
35 (2001
7 ) 39 55
2005 1 (2005 1 ) 1 10
----------------
2005 2 (2005 2 ) 31 34
298 (2005
6 ) 103 104
215
2004
5 (2004 5 ) 73 78
Future World16 (2003 11 )
30 40
2004
5 (2004 5 ) 23 28
6 5 (2004 9
) 55 59
2005 10 12
5 8
WTO 2002 2
(2002 2 ) 17 21
13 2 (1983
10 ) 1 22
2001 25
(2001 ) 17 23
27 (1992 7 10 )
61 65
-------- 29 3
(1999 7 ) 2 13
---------- 75 (2001 5 ) 69
73
() 20 1
(2004 2 ) 1 6
2002
12 (2002 12 ) 35 46
216
6
1 (2003 1 ) 36 42
2005 1 12 3
4
---------2005 2 26
1 2
---------2006 4 12
5 6
42 4 (2003
7-8 ) 105 125
() 42 1 (2006 3
) 33 47
31 4 (1995 4 )
99 110
94 5 (2005 5 )
36 37
-----------92 6
(2003 6 ) 33
---------- 33 2
(2003 4 ) 59 79
----------- 30
(2001 11 ) 173 186
978 (2006
8 21-27 ) 104
19 1 (2004 1 ) 22 2655
217
2 2 (2004 2 )
63 80
2.
2005 6 18-24 1 18
2000
6 1 5
2005 5 -6 1 5
()
1.
1995
1989
2005
2005
2.
1999
218
2001 12 02267-S446
1995 5 3181
2005 4 21 2005
12 31 94-A0305
(1/4)
2003 12 20 92-B0108
()
1998 7 28 2
1996 1 1 3
------------- 1993 4 18 1
1993 2 17 2
2005 7 15 A13
------------ 94 1 24 A13
2005 1
6
------------------------ 2000
8 10
1995 11 23 2
VS. 94 10
219
23 3
1997 10 6 1
1993 3 15
1993 4 2 1
------1997 5 29 1
2005 1 19
A11
2005 10 27 A6
2005 8 27
A1
2001 8 10 7
1995 1 5 1
1996 1 28 1
2006 1 19 A3
1993 7 5 6
2004 12
5 C5
2005 7 7 A3
94 3 31 A13
2005 8 17 A3
2003 3 12
4
220
2000 8 22 7
()
Joshua Eisenman and Devin T Stewart,
2005 11 17
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emid=47
500 2005 10 F-1 922006
5 20 http://www.fortunechina.com/_fc500/IMG/2004/1-50.jpg
2006 2006 1 5
http://www.cnfi.org.tw/kmportal/front/bin/ptdetail.phtml?Part=magazine9501-43013
2006 7 16
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00607160116,200607160110
2004 1-12
2005 1-10 2005 11 20 http://stats.cpcia.cn/cpcia/index.jsp.
2006 5 20
http://www.cas.cn/html/Dir/2002/05/09/6328.htm
20012002200320042005
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http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2005/indexch.htm
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(2003 )http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2005/indexch.htm
-------------------------------------------------------------------16-2
221
http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2005/indexch.htm
------------------------------------------------------------------16-38 ()
http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/ndsj/2005/indexch.htm
2005 4
19 http://www.china5e.com/news/oil/200504/200504190172.html
2003 7 4
http://china-week.com/html/01785.htm
2006 5 23 http://www.tier.org.tw/13chinaeconomic/115.htm.
2005 3 21
http://www.china5e.com/dissertation/naturalgas/20050321142839.html
2004 9 2006 3 24
http://finance.sina.com.cn/b/20040830/1524985879.shtml
2005 12 2
www2.cier.edu.tw/sem941202/941202004.pdf
2005 5 31
http://www.peaceforum.org.tw/onweb.jsp?webno=33333332:5&webitem_no=129
6
2006 5 23
http://www.tier.org.tw/13chinaeconomic/energystrategy.htm
--------2006 5 23
http://www.tier.org.tw/13chinaeconomic/energystrategy.htm
2004 8 4
http://www.future-china.org.tw/fcn/ideas/fci20040806.htm
222
12 2006 1 24
http://www.usc.cuhk.edu.hk/wk_wzdetails.asp?id=560
http://www.cpechina.com/old/houtai/info_view.asp?id=1466
2006 4 28
http://www.mlr.gov.cn/pub/gtzyb/zwgk/ggtg/t20060428_74047.htm
2005 2006 1 20
http://www.coi.gov.cn/hygb/hyjj/2005/index.html
2005 9 16
http://www.china5e.com/news/zonghe/200509/200509160177.html
2006 4 8
www.eusa-taiwan.org/
489 (2006 5 8 5 14 )
2006 6 8 http://www.businesstoday.com.tw/web_content/article.aspx
2004 8 10
http://www.npf.org.tw/PUBLICATION/SD/093/SD-R-093-002.htm
2004 7 2006 3
8 http://www.people.com.cn/GB/paper2086/12404/1115608.html
2002 1 8
http://www.npf.org.tw/PUBLICATION/NS/091/NS-C-091-009.htm
2005 9
26 http://info.jctrans.com/xueyuan/myyt/tzbg/2005926140026.shtml
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