Daily Technical Report

July 29, 2013

Sensex (19748) / NIFTY (5886)

On Friday, our benchmark indices opened with half a percent gain as indicated by the SGX nifty. However, just before the midsession, indices witnessed immense selling pressure and as a result eventually closed almost at the lowest point of the day. The high beta sectors like, Metal, Realty and PSU Banking witnessed a sharp correction; whereas the Consumer Durable along with the defensive sectors like, Healthcare and FMCG somehow managed to close in the green. The Advance to Decline ratio was strongly in favor of declining counters. (A=835 D=1433) (Source www.bseindia.com )

Exhibit 1: Nifty Daily Chart

Formation
The 89-day EMA and the 89-week EMA are placed at 19486/ 5881 and 18594 / 5622 levels, respectively. The 20-day EMA and the 20-week EMA are placed at 19775 / 5931 and 19489 / 5882, respectively. The daily RSI-Smoothened oscillator and the ADX (9) indicator are signaling a negative crossover. The 78.60% Fibonacci retracement level of the fall from 20444 / 6229 to 18467/ 5566 is placed at 20021 / 6088.
Source: Falcon:

Actionable points:
View Expected Targets Resistance Levels Bearish below 5869 5850 5800 5945 5991

Trading strategy: Our benchmark indices have broken their winning streak in the fifth week. On Wednesday, we witnessed a breakdown from the Rising Wedge pattern below 20065 / 6004. A move below last weeks low of 19649 / 5910 now clearly indicates that going forward the trading strategy should now be Sell on Rise. In addition, the negative placement in the daily RSI-Smoothened oscillator and the ADX (9) indicator suggests possibility of near term weakness. Also, this weeks price action has now confirmed the Lower Top on the weekly chart. This is a sign of caution for the bulls and adds an important point in the overall analysis. Going forward, we advise traders to initiate fresh short positions on every rise towards the 6007 mark. The stop loss for the trade would be at 6100. A break of the weekly low of 19699 / 5869, would augment further negative momentum and may result in a slide towards 19485 19185 / 5800 5760 or lower levels. It would be important to note that the RBI Monetary policy would be declared on Tuesday and volatility is likely to increase in the first half of the week.

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Daily Technical Report

July 29, 2013

Bank Nifty Outlook - (10465)

On Friday, the Bank Nifty too opened higher in-line with our benchmark indices and similarly faced significant selling pressure in the second half of the session. The Bank Nifty resumed its overall bearish trend and corrected more than one and half percent during the session. We are now observing that on the weekly chart, the Bank Nifty has broken its critical support of 10888 on closing basis. This has resulted in confirmation of Lower top Lower Bottom on weekly chart. Considering current strong pessimism, we are of the opinion that the Bank Nifty still has ample room on the downside. Any sustainable move below 10352 may drag the index lower to test the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (9924) of the rise from 7766 (low of the December 16, 2011 weekly candle) and 13415 (high of the May 24, 2013 weekly candle). On the upside, 10661 10829 levels would act as strong resistance for the Bank Nifty.

Exhibit 2: Bank Nifty Weekly Chart

Actionable points:
Source: Falcon: View Expected Target Resistance Levels Bearish below 10352 9924 10661 10829

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Daily Technical Report

July 29, 2013

Daily Pivot Levels for Nifty 50 Stocks

SCRIPS SENSEX NIFTY BANKNIFTY ACC AMBUJACEM ASIANPAINT AXISBANK BAJAJ-AUTO BANKBARODA BHARTIARTL BHEL BPCL CAIRN CIPLA COALINDIA DLF DRREDDY GAIL GRASIM HCLTECH HDFC HDFCBANK HEROMOTOCO HINDALCO HINDUNILVR ICICIBANK IDFC INDUSINDBK INFY ITC JINDALSTEL JPASSOCIAT KOTAKBANK LT LUPIN M&M MARUTI NMDC NTPC ONGC PNB POWERGRID RANBAXY RELIANCE RELINFRA SBIN SESAGOA SUNPHARMA TATAMOTORS TATAPOWER TATASTEEL TCS ULTRACEMCO S2 19,577 5,825 10,143 1,169 166 4,961 1,064 1,987 533 327 154 340 297 407 265 162 2,215 307 2,648 891 786 628 1,823 88 632 902 112 392 2,873 340 179 38 653 824 824 875 1,297 103 137 296 555 106 290 875 354 1,709 120 1,091 279 87 211 1,726 1,829 S1 19,663 5,856 10,304 1,190 172 5,018 1,086 2,009 554 332 156 345 300 411 274 167 2,255 313 2,670 897 796 636 1,844 91 648 917 114 406 2,893 354 184 40 667 835 839 885 1,336 104 139 300 574 107 297 883 363 1,737 126 1,104 284 88 215 1,750 1,847 PIVOT 19,785 5,900 10,514 1,206 176 5,096 1,116 2,030 576 336 159 352 305 414 285 173 2,297 323 2,698 908 805 646 1,857 97 664 934 117 418 2,923 364 193 42 681 854 858 891 1,392 104 141 305 603 109 306 893 373 1,780 134 1,114 293 90 221 1,775 1,863 R1 19,871 5,931 10,675 1,228 183 5,153 1,138 2,052 597 341 161 357 308 418 293 179 2,337 329 2,720 915 815 654 1,878 101 680 949 119 432 2,943 377 198 44 694 865 874 901 1,431 105 143 309 622 110 313 901 382 1,808 139 1,127 299 91 225 1,799 1,881 R2 19,993 5,975 10,884 1,244 187 5,231 1,169 2,073 620 345 164 363 313 420 304 185 2,379 339 2,748 925 824 664 1,891 107 697 967 121 444 2,973 387 206 46 708 885 892 908 1,487 106 144 315 651 112 322 911 393 1,852 147 1,138 307 92 230 1,823 1,897

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Daily Technical Report

July 29, 2013
Research Team Tel: 022 - 30940000 E-mail: sameet.chavan@angelbroking.com Website: www.angelbroking.com

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Research Team
Shardul Kulkarni Sameet Chavan Sacchitanand Uttekar Head Technicals Technical Analyst Technical Analyst

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