1.

Model Calibration-model represent the real case and essential for accurate flow resistance forecasting Model calibration was attempted by simulate the autumn 2000 flood and then verified with the available recorded information. Based on mannings equation (Equation 1), the floodplain roughness of the model was adjusted until the simulated value (flood depth and velocity) was fitted well with recorded value (n=0.07).

Equation 1 Table 1.1 shows Mannings value based on Chow, 1959 whilst table 1.2 indicates the simulated velocity and depth based on trial and error to fit the observed data from farmer A.

Table 1.1: n value for floodplains

Table 1.2: Observed (farmer A) and simulated velocity and depth with different mannings value

Simulated results show good correlations with observed data for Farmer A with n value=0.07 (figure 1.1).

Figure 1.1: Good correlation between observed and simulated data

Graph 1.1, 1.2 and Table 1.3 illustrates simulated and observed value using recorded data from Farmer A, Farmer B and willow.
0.8 0.7 0.6 Velocity (m/s) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 -0.1 0:00:00 4:48:00 9:36:00 14:24:00 19:12:00 0:00:00 4:48:00 9:36:00 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 14:24:00 Depth (m)

Time from start of simulation (hh:mm:ss)

Observed Velocity V - calibration run 0.05 Observed Depth Depth - calibration run 0.05 V - calibration run 0.03 V - calibration run 0.06 Depth - calibration run 0.03 Depth - calibration run 0.06 V - calibration run 0.04 V - calibration run 0.07 Depth - calibration run 0.04 Depth - calibration run 0.07

Graph 1.1: Simulated and observed velocity and depth at farmer A logging equipment at point 384756.847, 243710.625

2.5

2 Observed depth 1.5 Depth - calibration run 0.03 Depth - calibration run 0.025 1 Depth - calibration run 0.04 Depth - calibration run 0.05 0.5 Depth - calibration run 0.06

0 0:00:00

12:00:00

0:00:00

12:00:00

0:00:00

Graph 1.2: Simulated and observed depth at farmer B CCTV at point 385958.536, 239416.722
Time into simulation 09:10:00 14:00:00 Comment time that flood waters reach tree time of maximum depth, 2.20 m 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 08:55:00 09:05:00 09:05:00 09:10:00 09:15:00 12:50:00 13:05:00 13:30:00 13:40:00 13:50:00

Table 1.3: Simulated and observed time that flood water reach tree and time of maximum depth at willow at point 384902.658, 241679.317

Figure 1.2: Comparison flood inundation area between satellite image and calibrated model based on autumn 2000 flood events

There is no much different between flood inundation areas for the model based on autumn 2000 flood events with satellite image flood inundation area. With respect to flow depth, flow velocity and flood area extent, the model is good calibrated to represent the reality. Figure 1.3 illustrates flood extent, area affected and total volume at different time based on different return period (50, 100 200). Based on the area, the flood extent and volume increase with the increased in return period.

Figure 1.3: Location liable to flooding at a return period of 1 in 50, 100 and 200 years with no flood defences

2. Flood Defence Measures: Flood protection level is set to 100yrs return period at Upton upon Severn town. Simulation of Existing River Section (ISIS 1D)-Increase conveyance capacity Purpose: To obtain design flood hydrographs for the rivers To obtain design flood levels along the river system To determine the flood protection levels at various stretches of rivers

Water level profile of 100yrs return period for long section of River Severn

Water level profile of various ARI (50, 100, 200) at cross section M37

Simulation of Floodplain (ISIS 2D)-control flooding

A convincing argument for the flood defence/alleviation scheme that you have recommended. You should consider the environmental, social and economic sustainability of your proposal and describe the schemes advantages and disadvantages relative to possible alternatives Possible Structural Measures Possible Options River Channelizationwidening and deepening Weir Earth Bund (at space-available reaches) Advantages Increase river capacity Disadvantages Dredging has to be repeated after each events Affect fish and wildlife (biodiversity) Riverbank less stable Acquire land Increased risk of scouring at the river channel as the river level will flow deeper and faster If near to river the foot of bunds can be eroded, leading to its collapse Fail by overtopping or seepage eroding Increase risk of flooding at upstream Decreased town characters (ugly view) Affect the tourism industry (waterfront) Fail by overtopping or seepage eroding Expensive Increase risk of flooding at upstream Acquire land (Farms need to be relocated) Expensive if earth bund is sufficient Destroy scenic and interesting stretches of the river Safety required (fencing, etc)

Control flow downstream Contain flood flow (control flooding and river flow) Aesthetics Value Minimise the loss of floodplains Cost effective: Potential suppliers to build earth bund from local industry (Upton Marina developers and local quarries) Contain flood flow

Floodwall (at space constrained stretchesespecially at town area)

Storage (upstream)

Setback earth bund at upstream floodplain

Retain flood waters and release them more slowly to reduce the flood peak Cost effective if earth bund and flood wall is too long Can also be tapped in the summer when stream flows are low and there is demand for drinking and irrigation water Transition from conveyance to a storage approach Allow the river to continue its natural meandering Reintroduce habitat

Vacant land exists behind the earth bunds (little used farmland) Need prior agreement with land owners to periodically use the land for storage

Possible Non Structural Measures

Possible Options Gazetting the low-lying areas as floodplain corridor and only control development is permissible Flood forecasting and warning systems: to provide sufficient lead times for relevant authorities to evacuate potential flood victims to safe areas.

Advantages

Disadvantages Urbanisation is inevitable Development pressure

Minimise flood damage

Proper planning and failure of it can cause severe damage and flooding

From the possible options with advantages and disadvantages, in order to increase conveyance capacity approaches for waterfronts, buildings floodwalls in the cities destroy the citys window on the river. In this manner, it is possible to employ earth bund 1) Floodplain: construction of earth bunds at right bank to act as flood storage or build storage at upstream for higher ARI when the existing or proposed river channels are insufficient to cater the peak discharge (at source control) Construct earth bunds at both banks with slope protection. Proposed earth bund (at both sides of river back) along the lower reaches of the River Severn extending from M13 to M25 and M35 to M38 to provide 100yrs flood protection for present settlements. 3. The principles, assumption and uncertainties of error The area is modelled using integrated 1D and 2D hydrodynamic model. By using iterative procedures, it can be used to solve equations that are impossible to solve by normal mathematical manipulation. It involves some element of simplification. 1D model is used for in-bank modelling for predicting the conveyance capacity. Meanwhile, 2D modelling is used to model the behaviour of flow movement in the floodplain (out-bank). 1D model solves St Vernant and energy equations. The 2D model used shallow water solver for flows in floodplain environments. ISIS 2D use the numerical schemes, ADI (Alternating Direction Implicit), that are specifically developed to tackle for subcritical flows. Assumptions: Shear or turbulence and secondary currents are negligible (1D)- Resistance is constant with time Neglect turbulence/3D flow affects (2D)-Resistance is constant with time Mannings dependant for frictional resistance to flow (1D and 2D)

Data quality from farmer A, Farmer B and Willow are acceptable. Flood hydrograph for different return period have same shape and time to peak with the 2000 flood hydrograph

Uncertainties Error in data input o Data (Flow, channel geometry) o Coefficient (Roughness, discharge) Effect of Vegetation, seasonal effects (Summer and winter)-roughness value Topography data resolution (not capture important information such as river crossings, height, etc.) Grid size of flood extent

How could be reduced Site investigation (verification process) Calibration and verification (Calibrate by comparing model output with observed data) Land use map (In hydrodynamic modeling, land cover maps are commonly used to parameterize floodplain roughness by assigning a roughness coefficient to each land cover type (Chow, 1959). Use high resolution data

Graph 2.1: Flood hydrograph for different return period

A discussion which considers the best modelling approach or type to use for this site. Is the model you have used the most appropriate for this area or would you recommend changes to the modelling approach? You should give convincing

scientific/engineering reasons for your implications in term of data requirements.

recommendations

and

discuss

the

For this site, the best modelling approach is 3D modelling since the study involved flood investigation and need to investigate the conveyance capacity (1D) and the behaviour of flow movement in the floodplain (2D). The model in this study is appropriate. There is no different between the water levels on the floodplain from the 2D model with water levels in the channel from the 1D model. and but in order to build the storage, the actual volume need to take into account and if flood forecasting system need to be installed

The figure XX shows user that the time step is too small or too big for the simulation, also it can implicate that the model is diverging. Poor Model Convergence: the values of model convergence and iterations are not between tolerant boundaries. The model is not stable. identify reasons for discrepancies based on what you have learnt about modelling uncertainties.

Uncertainty regarding roughness value for floodplain modelling Design flood hydrographs input into hydraulic modeling in order to evaluate the capacity and conveyance of the rivers; Finally, design discharge information for the river systems are used to develop and test various flood mitigation option. Channel and floodplain roughness is 0.07 (global roughness value for the entire area rather than spatially varying roughness) Flood Mitigation Engineer has to estimate the flood discharge and volume to size a flood storage pond and to determine channel capacity. Spatial resolution Grid size Decrease time step

Flood protection level should be 100-year ARI

PMF

May need to wait for a flood to calibrate models correctly Design Flood Hydrograph will be used the flow in autumn 2000 flood event by scaling the flow using flow multiplier. In the real case time to peak and flood volume may differ. It is used to measure the 'characteristics' of a river eg the gradient, the velocity etc. The flood hydrograph is basically a dual plot of river discharge (line) and rainfall (bars) over time.A large range of factors control the shape of hydrographs. These include: precipitation type and intensity, catchment shape, catchment gradient, land use and vegetation (eg afforestation, urbanisation), soil type, geology etc

Basic Data Parameters Boundary Data-upstream and downstream conditions Calibration and verification data The digital elevation model (DEM) used in the model is from LiDAR River and reservoir routing may need inputs from groundwater, irrigation canal diversions (if ada), public and industrial water supply

Inadequate Bridge?

Based on flow data from 1970-2009, Probable Maximum Flood, which is the estimation of the greatest flood that could occur at Upton-upon Severn is 1200 m3/s. This PMF might be appropriate if the dam are built on a river upstream or protection of nuclear plant or chemical works.

Hydrological analysis is concern with The estimation of magnitude of flood discharge, flood volume, rainfall intensity

The stage discharge relationship were established using the observed flood gauge and discharge data

The best modelling approach

Type of Data Purpose (Type of Analysis) a) Hydrological Data - Rainfall - Streamflow / Discharge - River stage - Hydrology analysis, IDF curve, hydrological modelling and hydraulic modelling. - Hydrology analysis (hydrograph), rating curve, hydrological modelling and hydraulic modelling. - Hydraulic analysis, rating curve, flood map and hydraulic modelling. b) Hydraulic Data - Sediment data - Tidal data - Hydraulic analysis and hydraulic modelling. - Hydraulic analysis and hydraulic modelling. c) River Characteristics - Cross-section and Longitudinal Section - River Geometry - River Structure - Hydraulic analysis, hydraulic modelling and detailed design. - Hydraulic modelling. - Hydraulic analysis, flood map, detailed design and hydraulic model. d) Maps & Plans - Topographic maps - Structural plan & drainage layout - Local development plan - Master development plan - Landuse map (existing & future) - Soil map - Geology map - Contour map - Site survey plan - Cadastral plan/ Sheet - Hydrology analysis, hydraulic analysis and flood map. - Hydraulic analysis and flood map. - Hydraulic analysis, flood map and detailed design. - Flood map, detailed design and hydraulic analysis. - Hydrology analysis, hydraulic analysis, flood map and hydrological modelling. - Hydrology analysis, sedimentation and erosion analysis. - Detailed design. - Flood map and hydraulic modelling, hydrology analysis - Hydraulic analysis, flood map, hydraulic modelling and detailed

design. - Hydraulic analysis and flood map, detail design e) River Section & Corridor Survey - River section - Corridor survey - Hydraulic analysis and hydraulic modelling. - Hydraulic analysis and flood map. f) Satellites & Images - Images (Aerial photograph) - Digital Earth Model (DEM) & Digital Terrain Model (DTM) - Satellite imagery (Earth Mapping) - Flood map. - Hydraulic analysis and flood map. - Flood map. g) Vulnerability Data - Socio-economy data - Physical Data - Flood damage assessment and ERP. - Flood damage assessment. h) Data for Previous Flood Events & Related Studies - Flood prone area - Flood level - Extend of flooding - Flood depth - Flood damage - Flood history - Documented report - Oral/communication/interview - Built-up platform level and flood map. - Hydraulic analysis, flood map and hydraulic modelling. - Hydraulic analysis and flood map. - Hydraulic analysis and flood map. - Hydraulic analysis and flood map. - Hydraulic analysis and flood map. - Hydrology analysis, hydraulic analysis, flood map, flood damage assessment and detailed design. - Hydrology analysis, hydraulic analysis, flood map, ERP and flood damage assessment. i) Flood Properties - Flood risk and detailed design. j) Soil Investigation - Detailed design. k) Catchments Characteristics - Hydrology analysis, hydraulic analysis, hydrological modelling and hydraulic modelling. l) Data for Operation and Maintenance - As Built Plan - Standard Operation and Maintenance Procedure

An explanation of how the flood risk of the area is likely to change with time, and make recommendations for any actions the local authorities (EA, local council, water company, fire service, etc) can make. A stream periodically changes by flowing over its banks. Climate change may alter the flow characteristics. Pgv26 floodplain mgt

References Natural Resources Conservation Service, 2001. Stream corridor restoration. http://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/national/ndcsmc/?cid=nrcs143_009158