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GOVERNMENTOFTHEDISTRICTOFCOLUMBIA

OFFICEOFTHECHIEFFINANCIALOFFICER
OFFICEOFREVENUEANALYSIS

DistrictofColumbiaEconomicandRevenueTrends:July2013

VincentC.Gray,MayorFitzroyLee,DeputyCFO&ChiefEconomist
NatwarM.Gandhi,ChiefFinancialOfficerStephenC.Swaim,SeniorEconomist

Junehighlights:

Slowjobgrowth.........2

Slowerresidentemploy
ment.......4

Moreoccupiedoffice
space....8

Indicatorupdates:
Wageandsalaryemployment..2
SectorsoftheDCeconomy....3
Residentemploymentandunem
ployment.... 4
Wagesandincome.......5
Residentialrealestate...6
Commercialofficespace....8
Realestateconstructionoutlook
andvalueoftransactions....9
Hospitality...........10
USeconomy.....11

Is the DC economy stalling?

BLS reports no recent net gains in either jobs located in DC or jobs


held by DC residents
Employment in the District of Columbia has stopped growing in recent months,
according to seasonally-adjusted employment and labor force data from the US
Bureau of Labor Statistics. This is true both for jobs located in the District of
Columbia and for jobs held by DC residents.
The number of jobs located in DC peaked at 736,400 in October 2012, declining
by May 2013 to 733,800. This decrease of 2,600 (0.4%) over the past seven
months represents a significant change from the preceding 42 month period.
From April 2009 to October 2012 employment had increased by 41,200 (5.9%).
For DC residents, employment peaked in March 2013 at 341,229, and by May
had dropped by 665. The decline was smalljust 0.2%but it was a sharp reversal from the recent past. In the 20 months between July 2011 and March
2013, District resident employment grew by 31,355 (10.1%).
Especially because the full effects of federal spending cutbacks mandated by the
sequester have not yet materialized, data suggesting that employment in the
District of Columbia has already begun to decline are particularly worrisome. It
is, however, too soon to draw firm conclusions from this data about the near
term outlook for the Districts economy. This is true for two reasons: (1) the
data may be revised, and (2) this data needs to be considered along with other
indicators, some not so negative, in getting a full picture of current trends.
With respect to data revisions, the annual revisions that take place each spring
have often been significant. This past March, for example, BLS raised its seasonally adjusted estimate of the level of resident employment for May 2012 by
5,736 (1.8%). The resident employment number seems (continued on p. 17)

DCtaxcollections......12
WageandsalaryemploymentinDC:May
2012toMay2013(seasonallyadjusted)
740,000

DC Economic and Revenue Trends: July 2013

May13

Mar13

Jan13

Nov12

Sep12

May13

Feb13
Mar13
Apr13

ORAcontactinformation..18

Nov12
Dec12
Jan13

720,000

Jul12

725,000
Sep12
Oct12

Aboutthisreport...........18

730,000

Jun12
Jul12
Aug12

ORAreports&documents....18

350,000
340,000
330,000
320,000
310,000

735,000

May12

DCrevenueestimate........16

May12

USandDCforecasts.......14

DCresidentemployment: May
2012toMay2013seasonally
adjusted)

DC Office of Revenue Analysis

Wage and salary employment


DC job growth weakening and remains well
below that in the US and DCs suburbs
May wage and salary employment in DC was up by 2,267
(0.3%) from a year earlier as measured by the 3-month
moving average.

Changeinwageandsalaryemploymentlocatedin
DC,theDC suburbs,and theUS:
May2011toMay2013
(%changefromprioryearin3monthmovingaverage)

Federal government employment for May was down by


4,100 (-2.0%); the private sector gained 6,867 (1.4%).

3.0

Total year-over-year DC metropolitan area employment


increased by 43,633 (1.4%) in May as measured by the 3month moving average.

2.0
1.0

May13

Feb13

Nov12

Aug12

May12

Nov11

1.0

May11

Seasonally adjusted wage and salary employment in DC


rose by 700 (0.1%) in May from the prior month. Seasonally
adjusted employment was 400 more than it was six months
earlier in November.

Feb12

0.0

Aug11

There was an increase of 1.8% in suburban Washington


employment in May from a year earlier.

DC(may@0.3)
DCsuburbs(may@1.8)
US(may@1.6)

Table1.Wageandsalaryemploymentin DC,WashingtonMetroarea,andtheUS:May2013
Jurisdiction
DistrictofColumbia
1yearchange
%change

FY2010

FY2011

FY2012

709,075
7,442
1.1

723,233
14,158
2.0

730,033
6,800
0.9

732,983
3,900
0.5

732,700
2,267
0.3

730,300
200
0.0

2,956,233
8,083
0.3

2,998,442
42,208
1.4

3,030,808
32,367
1.1

3,057,542
35,608
1.2

3,075,733
43,633
1.4

3,092,100
48,500
1.6

W ashingtonsuburbs(%ch)

0.7

1.2

1.1

1.4

1.8

2.1

US(%ch)

1.9

1.2

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.6

W ashingtonmetroarea
1yearchange
%change

12moavg 3moaverage

Thi smonth

Notseasonallyadjusted.Suburbanempl oymentisthedi fferencebetweenthemetroareatotalandtheDC portion.


Source:BLS.Maydataispreliminary.

Table2.FederalgovernmentandprivatesectorwageandsalaryemploymentinDC:May2013
FY2010

FY2011

FY2012

12moavg

3month
average

208,233
10,183
5.1

213,258
5,025
2.4

208,600
4,658
2.2

206,392
3,917
1.9

203,433
4,100
2.0

202,600
4,800
2.3

Privatesector
464,100
474,833
1yearchange
1,158
10,733
%change
0.3
2.3
Source:BLS.Notseasonallyadjusted.Mayispreliminary.

486,708
11,875
2.5

492,258
8,183
1.7

495,967
6,867
1.4

494,200
5,400
1.1

Sector
Federalgovernment
1yearchange
%change

Thismonth

Table3.SeasonallyadjustedDCEmployment:November2012toMay2013
Indicator

D.C.WageandSalaryemployment
changefrompriormonth
%changefrompriormonth

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

733,400
3,000
0.4

733,000
400
0.1

734,700
1,700
0.2

733,600
1,100
0.1

734,300
700
0.1

733,100
1,200
0.2

733,800
700
0.1

Source:BLSseasonallyadjusted.Mayispr eliminar y
DC Economic and Revenue Trends: July 2013

DC Office of Revenue Analysis

Sectors of the economy


Education and professional services (other than
legal) lead private sector job growth

Federalgovernmentandprivatesectorwageand
salaryemploymentinDC: May2011toMay2013

In May education gained 3,467 jobs over last year and


professional services (other than legal) gained 2,567 jobs,
together acccouting for about 88% of all private sector net job
growth. (3-month moving averages.)

(%changefromprioryearin3monthmovingaverage)
5.0
4.0
3.0

Food service (+1,333) was the only other sector showing a


gain of at least 1,000 over the year.

2.0
1.0

May13

Mar13

Jan13

Sep12

Nov12

Jul12

May12

Mar12

Jan12

Sep11

Nov11

2.0

Local government fell by 500.

May11

1.0

Jul11

0.0

Private sector industries losing jobs included information,


legal, employment services, and retail.

3.0

Over the past year, DCs share of federal employment fell


slightly in both the DC metro area and the US.

federalgov't(may@2.0)
privatesector(may@1.4)

Table4.WageandsalaryemploymentlocatedinDC:May2013
3monthmovingaverage
1yearchange
Industrysector

Federalgovernment
Localgovernm ent

May2012 May2013 Amount %


207,533
203,433 4,100
2.0
33,800
33,300
500
1.5

12mo.
moving
avg:
%change

Sector%of
allDCjobs,
May2013

DCshare(%)inMay2013
ofallsectorjobsin:

ChangefromMay2012
toMay2013inDC
shareofsectorjobsin:

metro area

metroarea

US

US

1.9
1.1

27.8
4.5

54.8
10.3

7.39
0.17

0.4
0.6

0.01
0.00

Legalservices
OtherProfessionalandtechnical

29,633
75,600

29,333
78,167

300
2,567

1.0
3.4

1.1
3.6

4.0
10.7

na
22.4

2.64
1.12

na
0.5

0.04
0.00

Em ploymentservices
OtherBusinessservices
Information

13,833
33,433
17,367

13,367
34,300
16,600

467
867
767

3.4
2.6
4.4

3.3
1.9
5.4

1.8
4.7
2.3

35.1
18.0
21.9

0.46
0.47
0.63

0.9
0.3
1.1

0.06
0.01
0.04

Finance

28,100

28,400

300

1.1

1.2

3.9

19.1

0.37

0.1

0.00

Organizations
Education

60,367
51,067

61,300
54,533

933
3,467

1.5
6.8

1.6
4.3

8.4
7.4

37.0
52.2

2.09
1.61

0.7
0.3

0.03
0.08

Health

63,567

64,467

900

1.4

1.3

8.8

22.9

0.37

0.2

0.00

Foodservice
Accomodations
Amusementandrecreation

43,333
15,667
7,333

44,667
15,500
6,933

1,333
167
400

3.1
1.1
5.5

4.0
0.1
2.7

6.1
2.1
0.9

21.0
37.0
18.3

0.42
0.87
0.36

0.5
0.6
1.3

0.01
0.01
0.00

Retailtrade

18,700

18,033

667

3.6

1.4

2.5

6.9

0.12

0.2

0.01

4,900

5,000

100

2.0

5.1

0.7

8.0

0.09

0.3

0.00

Wholesaletrade
Construction

13,300

13,467

167

1.3

6.8

1.8

9.6

0.25

0.5

0.01

Personalandmiscellaneousser.

7,700

6,967

733

9.5

3.3

1.0

na

0.28

na

0.03

Otherprivate

5,200

4,933

267

5.1

3.1

0.7

4.5

0.03

0.0

0.00

730,433

732,700

2,267

0.3

0.5

100.0

24.0

0.54

0.2

0.01

Total
Publicsector

241,333

236,733

4,600

1.9

1.7

32.3

34.3

1.08

1.0

0.01

Privatesector

489,100

495,967

6,867

1.4

1.7

67.7

20.9

0.44

0.1

0.00

Professionalandallbusiness

197,967

200,167

2,200

1.1

1.0

27.3

21.5

0.85

0.0

0.01

3.0
2.3
24.6
31.6
0.58
0.4
Education,health,andorgs.
175,000
180,300
5,300
0.2
2.1
12.3
14.4
0.25
0.1
Hospitalityandtrade
89,933
90,133
200
Otherprivatesector
26,200
25,367
833
3.2
1.8
3.5
10.2
0.10
0.1
Source:BLS.notseasonallyadjusted.na=notavailable.Forthemetroarea,legalisincludedinotherprofessionalandtechnical,andpersonaland
miscellaneousservicesisincludedinorganizations(acategoryBLScalls"otherservices")

0.01
0.00
0.00

DC Economic and Revenue Trends: July 2013

DC Office of Revenue Analysis

Resident employment
DCs resident employment growth has been slowing

ResidentemploymentinDC,theDC suburbs,and
theUS:May2011toMay2013

In May DC resident employment rose 14,780 (4.6%) from a year


earlier (3-mo. moving average).

(%changefromprioryearin3monthmovingaverage)
8.0

Seasonally adjusted DC resident employment has fallen for two


months in a row and is below the March level.

6.0
4.0

In May the unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) remained


at 8.5%. The rate has changed little in the past 6 months.

May13

Mar13

Jan13

Nov12

Sep12

Jul12

May12

(%changefromprioryearin3mo.movingaverage)

Table5.UnemploymentratesforDC,metroarea,andUS:
May2013

6.0

(percentoflaborforce)

4.0

Notseasonallyadj.

May13

Feb13

jobsinDC(may@0.3)

Nov12

Aug12

May12

Feb12

Nov11

US
DCmetroarea
DC
DCsuburbs

Aug11

Jurisdiction

0.0

May11

2.0

2.0

Jan12

DC(may@4.6)
DCsuburbs(may@0.9)
US(may@1.1)

JobslocatedinDCandDC residentemployment
May2011to May2013
8.0

Mar12

Nov11

May11

2.0

Sep11

0.0

(3-

Jul11

Mayinitial unemployment insurance claims were up 5.7%


month moving average).

2.0

DCres.jobs(may@4.6)

May2012

Seasonallyadj.

May2013

7.9
5.5
9.0
5.1

May2012

7.3
5.6
8.3
5.2

May2013

8.2
na
9.1
na

7.6
na
8.5
na

Source:U.S.BLS.na= datanot available

Tab l e 6 .R es id en t e m p lo ym e n ta n d u n e m p lo ym e n t:M ay2 01 3


In dic ato r

F Y2 01 0

F Y2 01 1

FY2 0 12

3 m o n th
ave rag e

1 2m oa vg

T his m o n th

D C La bo r for ce sum m ary


R e sident em p loy m e nt
1y ea r cha ng e
% c han ge

308 ,513
4 ,332
1. 4

312 ,14 8
3 ,63 5
1. 2

32 3,41 2
1 1,26 4
3. 6

336, 379
19, 665
6. 2

339 ,223
14 ,780
4. 6

338, 746
11, 198
3 .4

La b or Fo rc e
1y ea r cha ng e
% c han ge

343 ,475
9 ,339
2. 8

347 ,47 0
3 ,99 5
1. 2

35 6,43 9
8,96 9
2. 6

368, 345
17, 260
4. 9

369 ,596
13 ,720
3. 9

369, 522
9, 690
2 .7

U ne m pl oy e d
1y ea r cha ng e
% c han ge

34 ,962
5 ,007
16. 7

35 ,32 2
36 0
1. 0

3 3,02 7
2,29 5
6. 5

31, 967
2, 406
7. 0

30 ,374
1 ,061
3. 4

30, 776
1, 508
4 .7

10.2

10. 2

9. 3

8. 7

8.2

8. 3

2 ,10 1
30 2

1,78 4
31 7

1, 845
9

1 ,686
90

1, 781
98

U ne m pl oy m e nt ra t e

D C Un em pl oy m e nt in sur a nce (st a te pr og r a m )


I nit ia lc la im s (m on thly a v g .)
1y ea r cha ng e
% c han ge

1 ,799
404
18. 3

16. 8

15. 1

0. 5

5. 7

5 .8

53 ,592

46 ,42 3

4 5,17 0

42, 803

39 ,811

37, 634

1y ea r cha ng e

881

7 ,16 9

1,25 3

3, 975

3 ,045

7, 877

% c han ge

1. 6

13. 4

2. 7

8. 5

7. 1

17 .3

W e e k sco m pe nsa t e d(m o. a vg . )

So u rce :L a bo rf orc e :B L S.U n em p loym en tIns u ran c e: USD ep to fL a bo r.N o tse as on a llyad j.

Table7.SeasonallyadjustedDCResidentemploymentandunemployment:November2012toMay2013
Indicator

DCResidentemployment
changefrompriormonth
%changefrompriormonth
DCUnemploymentrate(%)

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

337,835
1,825
0.5

339,422
1,587
0.5

340,227
805
0.2

340,941
714
0.2

341,229
288
0.1

340,933
296
0.1

340,564
369
0.1

8.5

8.4

8.6

8.6

8.6

8.5

8.5

Source:BLSseasonallyadjusted.Mayispreliminary
DC Economic and Revenue Trends: July 2013

DC Office of Revenue Analysis

Wages and income


DC resident wage gains slow
Wages earned in the District of Columbia were 2.0%
higher in the March quarter compared to the same quarter of 2012. The last 2 quarters have been the slowest
year-over-year increases in over 3 years.

WagesearnedinDC, wagesearnedby DC
residents,andwagesearnedintheUS:2010.1to
2013.1
(%changefromthesamequarteroftheprioryear)
6.0

Wages earned in DC have now grown at a slower rate


than the US average for 9 quarters.

3.0

2013.1

2012.4

2012.3

2012.2

2012.1

2011.4

2011.3

2011.2

2011.1

2010.4

In the March quarter, the private sector accounted for


97% of the $1.20 billion increase in wages earned in DC.

2010.3

3.0

2010.2

0.0

2010.1

In the March quarter, estimated wages of DC residents


grew 1.7%the first time in 3 years that growth has
been lower than wages earned in DC. DC Personal Income grew 2.2%.

6.0
DC(2013.1@2.0)
DCresident(2013.1@1.7)
US(2013.1@3.2)

Table8.DCWagesand PersonalIncome:March2013
($billionatseasonallyadjustedannualratesunlessotherwisenoted)

Indicator

FY2009

F Y2010

FY2011

FY2012

4qua rter
m ov ing
a vera ge

La test
qua rter
(Mar.)

Wagesand salariesearn edinDC


1yearchange
%chan ge

55.4 1
1.1 4
2.1

57.81
2.40
4 .3

60.0 5
2.2 4
3.9

61.32
1.27
2 .1

61.86
1.02
1 .7

62.44
1.20
2.0

Supplementstow ages&salaries
%chan ge

16.3 1
6.3

17.17
5 .3

17.9 0
4.2

18.20
1 .7

18.26
0 .6

18.45
1.5

5.3 8
6.0

5.63
4 .6

5.9 6
6.0

6.24
4 .6

6.45
6 .7

6.60
6.2

21.4 0
0.7 6
3.7

22.59
1.19
5 .6

23.8 4
1.2 5
5.5

24.61
0.78
3 .3

24.87
0.55
2 .3

25.05
0.43
1.7

30.1
2.4

31.8
5 .5

33.9
6.6

35.2
3 .8

35.5
2 .6

35.6
1.4

5.7 8
14.1

5.18
10 .4

5.4 7
5.6

5.70
4 .3

5.96
6 .6

5.99
5.9

4.6 2
9.1

5.22
13 .0

5.7 0
9.1

5.91
3 .8

6.02
3 .8

6.09
3.4

40.5 2
0.1 6
0.4

42.18
1.66
4 .1

45.0 3
2.8 5
6.8

46.77
1.74
3 .9

47.51
1.49
3 .2

47.72
1.03
2.2

3.5
3.6

1 .4
0 .4

5.6
4.0

3 .3
3 .1

3 .7
3 .7

2.8
3.2

Ad dendum:C han gefromprioryearinw agesea rnedinDCb ysec tor


0.15
Privatesector(1 yrch ,$B)
Federalgovernment(1yrch,$B)
1.08

0.57
1.79

1.6 2
0.7 5

1.38
0.16

1.11
0.12

1.16
0.05

D Cres.w agesas%of wag esearn edin DC

39 .1

39.7

40 .1

40 .2

40.1

P ro prieto rs'inco meearnedb yDCresidents*


%chan ge
Wagesand salariesof DCresid ents***
c hangefromo neyearago
%chan ge
Inc omeearnedbyDCresid ents
%chan ge
P ro pertyinc omeofDCresidents
%chan ge
P ensio nsand othertran sferofD Cresiden ts
%chan ge
D CP erson alInco me**
1yearchange
%chan ge
USPerso nalinco me(%c hang efro mprioryea r)
USWagesandsalaries(%chan gefromprioryear)

38.6

*Proprietors' incomeisde rivedfr omfederaltax dataandthereforeallproprietors' incomeisearne dbyDCre sidents.


**Reflectsde ductionofsocialinsurancepaidbyi ndividuals.W ageandsalaryam ountsshownare be fore thisde duction.
***Est.byORA ;assum esw ageandsalarysuppl.ar ethesame%forDCreside ntwagesasforw agesearnedi nDC.
Source :BEA;datafor Marchw ere releasedJune 27,2013

DC Economic and Revenue Trends: July 2013

DC Office of Revenue Analysis

Single family and condominium home sales


June was another strong month for home sales

Totalvalueofsalesofsinglefamilyandcondo
units:June2011toJune2013
(%changefromprioryearin3mo.and12mo.
movingtotals)

The June 3-month moving total of single family home sales was
up 7.9% from a year earlier, and the average selling price was
12.7% higher.
June condominium sales were 23.3% above a year earlier as
measured by the 3-month moving total; the average selling price
was 3.6% higher.

40

The total value of all home sales in June was 23.8% more than a
year earlier as measured by the 3-month moving total.

20

30

10

Jun13

Mar13

Dec12

Sep12

Jun12

Mar12

10

Sep11

The May ratios of inventory to sales were 1.3 for single family
units and 1.4 condominiums (3-mo. moving average).

Dec11

Jun11

June year-to-date median prices were up 16.1% for single family


units, and up 7.3% for condominiums.

20
12monthmovingtotal(jun@21.4)
3monthmovingtotal(jun@23.8)

Table9.D.C.ResidentialRealEstateIndicators:June2013

Indicator

F Y2009

FY2010

FY 2011

FY2012

12momoving
totalor
3momoving
av erage total oraverage

Thismonth

Num berofsales(settledcontracts)
Singlefamily
1yearchange
%chan ge

3,2 59
2 37
7.8

4 ,084
825
25.3

3,800
284
7.0

3,563
237
6.2

3,8 35
2 49
6.9

1,140
83
7.9

410
24
6.2

Condo
1yearchange
%chan ge

2,5 90
2 06
7.4

2 ,884
294
11.4

2,469
415
1 4.4

2,784
315
12.8

3,2 82
6 05
22.6

1,062
201
23.3

380
64
20.3

Total
1yearchange
%chan ge

5,8 49
31
0.5

6 ,968
1 ,119
19.1

6,269
699
1 0.0

6,347
78
1.2

7,1 17
8 54
13.6

2,202
284
14.8

790
88
12.5

A veragepricesofunitstha tsold
Singlefamily( $)
1yearchange
%chan ge

5 97,2 69
70,0 98
10.5

538 ,395
58 ,874
9.9

601,026
62,631
1 1.6

630,109
29,083
4.8

686,3 82
67,9 95
11.0

736,943
83,194
12.7

794,105
143,896
22.1

Condo( $)
1yearchange
%chan ge

3 59,9 52
52,2 83
12.7

414 ,030
54 ,078
15.0

423,365
9,336
2.3

429,611
6,245
1.5

441,3 90
13,7 88
3.2

457,346
15,818
3.6

471,250
34,900
8.0

2,878.8
290.6

3,3 92.9
5 14.1

3 ,329 .2
63 .7

3,441.1
111.9

4,080.9
718.7

1,325.8
254.6

504.7
115.8

9.2

17.9

1.9

3.4

21.4

23.8

29.8

5.2
5.7

3.4
4.6

3 .3
4 .9

2.3
2.9

1.6
1.9

1.3
1.4

1.3
1.5

Totalvalueofallsales($million)
1yearchange
%chan ge
Ratio:active inve ntorytosale s
Singlefamily
Condo

Mediancontractprices,CY todateinJune2013: singlefamily$592,000(16.1%1yrch);condo$407,500(7.3%1y rch)


Note:Dataareclosedcontractssettledduringeachmonthorotherperiodshown.Becauseaver agepricedependsonthemixofunitssold,
thism easurecanbevolatileonamonthtomonthbasis,anditisnotintendedtomeasurechangesinthevalueofallr esidentialproperty.
Monthlyav erage priceforallsinglefamilyunitsis calculatedby ORA basedonreportedaveragepr icesandnumberofsalesfordifferent
typesofunits.
Source:MetropolitanRegionalInform ationSystems(MRIS);mediancontractpriceandinventor yratiodataaccessedthroughthe
GreaterCapitalAreaAssn.ofRealtors(GCAA R).

DC Economic and Revenue Trends: July 2013

DC Office of Revenue Analysis

Apartments and single family home transactions


Strong sales of million dollar single family
homes in June

FHFAexpandeddatahousingpriceindexfor
DCandtheUS:2004.1to2013.1
(%cha ngefromprioryr.i nthe12mo.movinga vg.)

Sales of single family units at prices above $1 million


were up 37.5% in June from a year ago as measured by the
3-month moving total; they accounted for 19.3% of sales.

25
15

In March the quarterly Federal Housing Finance Agency


house price index for DC was 11.0% higher over a year ago.
For the US, there was a 6.4% rise.

2013.1

2012.2

2011.3

2010.4

2010.1

2009.2

2008.3

2007.4

2007.1

2006.2

2005.3

2004.4

2004.1

5
15

In the March quarter, occupied apartment units rose 2,085


(2.5%) and rents rose 2.5% from a year earlier.

DC(2013.1@10.7)
US(2013.1@4.5)

Table10.D.C.S ing lefamilyandcondom iniumhomesalesatpricesof$1m illion ormore:June2013


Category

FY2009

FY 2010

FY2011

12mo
3m o
moving total moving tota l

F Y2012

Thismonth

Sin glefamilyhomes
1yearchan ge
%chan ge
percen to fallsinglefamilysales

33 3
10 2
23.4
10.2

418
85
25.5
1 0.2

489
71
17 .0
12.9

4 58
31
6.3
12.9

604
150
3 3.0
15 .7

220
60
37 .5
19.3

96
40
71.4
23.4

C on dminiums
1yearchan ge
%chan ge
perc entofallco ndo min iumsales

62
1 5
19.5
2.4

89
27
43.5
3.1

87
2
2 .2
3.5

72
15
17.2
2.6

102
24
3 0.8
3 .1

33
8
32 .0
3.1

10
4
66.7
2.6

Source :MetropolitanRe gionalInform ationSystems(MRI S). Sale sareone sclose d(se ttled)duringpe riodshown.

Table11.FederalHousingFinance AgencyPriceIndexforsinglefam ilyproper tyinDCandUS:March2013


Fiscalyearaverage
Quarter
Indicator

FY2009

F Y2010

F Y2011

FY2012

2012.1

2012.2

2012.3

%changefromprioryearinvalueofindex
DC
7.5
1.4
1.6
8.0
8.1
7.0
US
10.2
2.8
4.8
0.9
0.2
2.9
Adde ndum:%changefromprioryearintheaveragepriceofsettledsalescontractsforsinglefamilyhomes
AverageDCsalesprice
10.5
9.9
11.6
4.8
14.3
5.4

2012.4

2013.1

10.1
3.4

14.9
5.3

11.0
6.4

7.1

18.5

5.8

Source:(1)FederalHousingFinancyAgency"ExpandeddataH PIIndex"(salesplusrefinancings).Thisindexisabroadmeasure
ofthemovementofsinglefamilyhouseprices.Itmeasuresaveragepricechangesinrepeatsalesorrefinancingsonthesameproperties.
Thisinformationisobtainedfromtransactionsw hosemortgageshavebeenpurchasedorsecuritizedbyFannieMaeorF reddieMac
sinceJanuary1975.ItisaugmentedbydataonmortgagesendorsedbyFH AandcountryrecorderdatalicensedfromDataQuickInformation
Systems.(2)AverageDCsalespriceistheaveragepriceofhousesthatsoldduringtheperiod(settledcontracts):seeTable9.Notseas.adj.

Table12.M ark etrateun itsinlargerDCapartmentbuildings:March31,2013


La testQ(Mar ch31, 2013)

Inventory
1yearc hange
%ch ange

87,090
1,663
1.9

87,970
880
1.0

88,710
740
0.8

89 ,464
754
0.8

90,805
1,988
2.2

372

%c h
0.4

Oc cupiedu nits
1yearc hange
%ch ange

81,964
443
0.5

82,965
1,001
1.2

84,125
1,160
1.4

85 ,620
1 ,495
1.8

86,991
2,085
2.5

491

0.6

Vacan tu nits
1yearc hange
%ch ange
%o fin ventory

5,126
1,220
31.2
5.9

5,005
121
2.4
5.7

4,585
420
8.4
5.2

3 ,844
741
16.2
4.3

3,814
97
2.5
4.2

119

3.0

$1,342
0.1

$1,380
2.8

$1,422
3.0

$1 ,481
4.1

$1,490
2.5

$0

0.6

Indica tor

Averageeffec tivemo nthlyrent


%ch angefrom1yea r

Sep.302009 Sep.302010 Sep.302011

Sep.30 2012

a mount

1Qch

Source :Reis.I nclude sunitsincompetitive, privatesectorbuildingsw ith40orm ore units. Excludescondoconver sions.

DC Economic and Revenue Trends: July 2013

DC Office of Revenue Analysis

Commercial office space


Occupied office increased again in the June
quarter, and the vacancy rate fell
Occupi edofficespace:2010.2to2013.2

For the quarter ending June, the vacancy rate for DC commercial office space fell to 9.3%.

(millionsquarefeet)

123.38

124

DCs vacancy rate in June was below the 13.4% rate for the
metropolitan area.

122

Occupied space in the June quarter rose by 1.72 million


square feet (1.4%) from the prior year, reaching a new high.

118

Space under construction in June (2.39 million square feet)


was down from the last quarter and last year.

114

120

116

In the June quarter, average effective rents for class A office


space leases were down 1.3% from 6-months earlier.

Table13.Comm ercialofficespaceinDC:June30,2013
(Inmillionsofsquarefee t,unlessnotedotherwise)
Sep.30
Indicator
2009
Inventory
1yearchange
% change

Sep.30
2010

Sep.30
2011

Sep.30
2012

lastqua rter(June2013)
Level
1Qch
%ch

127.45

131.95

133.50

133.99

136.03

3.86

4.49

1.56

0.48

2.05

0. 45

0.3

0. 81

0.7

3.1

3.5

1.2

0.4

1.5

114.45

119.94

121.89

121.52

123.38

0.99

5.49

1.95

0.36

1.72

% change

0.9

4.8

1.6

0.3

1.4

Leasedspace

116.25

121.35

123.06

122.82

124.42

0. 79

0.6

Underconstruction
1yearchange

5.75
4.85

2.14
3.60

2.42
0.27

2.74
0.33

2.39
0.35

0. 17

6.8

% change

45.8

62.7

12.7

13.5

12.9

% ofinventory
Va cant(nosublet)

4.5
11.20

1. 6
10.60

1.8
10.44

2.0
11.17

1.75
11.61

0. 34

2.9

% ofinventory
Va cant(wsublet)

8.8
13.00

8. 0
12.01

7.8
11.61

8.3
12.46

8.5
12.65

0. 36

2.8

1yearchan ge
%chfromo neyear

4.84
59.4

0.99
7.6

0.39
3.3

0.85
7.3

0.32
2.6

Occupiedspace
1yearchange

DCare avacancyrates (withsublet)


Distr ictofColumbia

10.2

9.1

8.7

9.3

9.3

NorthernVirginia

13.5

13.4

13.5

15.2

15.8

0.3
0. 1

SuburbanMaryland

14.6

14.5

14.2

14.5

14.7

0.1

DCMetropolitanarea

12.6

12.2

12.1

13.1

13.4

0.1

Source :DeltaAssociate s.Include ssingletenantandprivatelyownedspaceaswellasmultitenantbuildings.

T a b le 1 4 . A v e ra ge e ff e c tive of fi ce re n t fo rCl a ss A c om m e rc i a lo ff ic e l e a se s in D o w n tow n


D C by y e a r:2 0 0 9 t o 2 0 1 3 .2
In d ic a to r

A v er a g eeffec tive r en t
% chfr om pr ior y e a r

$ p e rs q ua re fo o to f g ro s sfloo rsp a ce e n d in g o n da t esh o w n :


20 0 9
2 01 0
2 01 1
2 0 12
2 01 3 .2

5 0.8 0

48. 65
4. 2

A v er a g ev a lueo f
im p ro v em en tsfor ten a nt s

48. 54
0 .2

47 .80
1 .5

47 .20
1 .3*

80 .00

85 .00

So u r c e:D e lta A sso c ia tes . R en tis f or fu ll ser vic e (in c lu d in g op e ra tin g e xp en se s a n d ta xes ),l ess
c o n c ess ion s ( fre e ren t, etc .). C la ss A is d ef in ed as b u ild in g s g r ea ter th a n 5 0 ,0 0 0 sq u a r e fee t a n d b u ilt
a fter 1 9 9 7 . * Per c en t ch an ge f ro m D ec em b er 31 , 2 0 1 2 .

DC Economic and Revenue Trends: July 2013

DC Office of Revenue Analysis

Housing permits, office and apartment outlook, and value of property transfers
Office vacancy rate expected to fall slightly over the
next two years as new demand equals new supply

Valueofrealpropertytransfers(including
transfersofeconomicinterest):
May2011toMay2013

For the 12-month period ending May, 4,281


housing unit building permits were issued, an 8.5%
increase over the prior 12-month period.

140
90

Delta Associates expects DCs office vacancy rate


(including sublet) to fall to 9.1% over the next two years.

40

May13

Mar13

Jan13

Sep12

Nov12

Jul12

May12

Mar12

Jan12

Sep11

Nov11

(12monthmovingtotal)

Jul11

60

Hous ingpermitsissuedi nDC:Ma y2010to


Ma y2013

May11

10

5,000

(%changein3monthand12monthmovingtotals)

12monthmovingtotal(may@13.8)
3monthmovingtotal(may@2.3)

4,281

Reis expects 7,305 new apartment units to be added to


inventory in CY 2013 and CY 2014, and occupancy to grow
by 7,082.

4,000
3,000
2,000

The value of May property transfers was down by 2.8%


from last year as measured by the 3-month moving total.
The 12-month moving total ($10.18 billion) was 13.8%
higher than last year .

1,000

May13

Feb13

Nov12

May12

Aug12

Feb12

Nov11

May11

Aug11

Nov10

Aug10

May10

Feb11

Table15.HousingunitbuildingpermitsissuedinDC:May2013

FY2009

FY2010

FY2011

FY2012

499
191
27.7

986
487
97.6

2,459
1,473
149.4

4,091
1,632
66.4

Totalunits
changefrom1yearago
%changefrom1year

12month
3month
movingtotal movingtotal

4,281
335
8.5

Thismonth

680
68
11.1

777
35
4.3

Source:CensusBureau(permitsissuedduringperiod).

Table16.DeltaAssociatesoutlookforcommercialofficespaceinDCand
thesurroundingmetroarea:June2013toJune2015
Indicator

Total DC%oftotal

DC

NoVA

SubMD

136.0
9.3

189.2
15.8

94.0
14.7

419.3
13.4

32.4

EstimatednetactivitytoJune2015
newsupply(msf)
2.8
4.2
newdemand(msf)
2.8
3.7

1.2
1.3

8.2
7.8

34.1
35.9

14.4

13.3

InventoryJune2013
Inventory(msf)
vacancyrate(%)

EstimatedInventoryJune2015
vacancyrate(%)
9.1

15.7

Source:DeltaAssociatesmsf=millionsquarefeet

Table17DCmarketrateapartmentunits:2008to2017
CY
2 008
2 009
2 010
2 011
2 012
2 013est
2 014est
2 015est
2 016est
2 017est

Inventory
8 6,583
8 7,788
8 8,360
8 8,817
9 0,433
9 2,995
9 7,738
9 9,312
10 0,674
10 2,107

1yrch %vacant
1,965
4.8
1,205
6.1
572
5.5
457
4.7
1,616
4.3
2,562
3.7
4,743
4.3
1,574
4.3
1,362
4.3
1,433
4.4

Occupied
82,465
82,415
83,477
84,632
86,500
89,514
93,582
95,087
96,374
97,649

1yrch
1 ,181
50
1 ,062
1 ,155
1 ,868
3 ,014
4 ,068
1 ,505
1 ,287
1 ,275

Source:Reis,March2013.(seenoteintable12)

Table18.M ark etValueofR ealPropertytransferssu bjecttotheDeedTransferorE conomicInteresttax:


May2013

Allpropertytra nsfers($million)
changefromoneyearago($M)
%chan gefrom1yearag o

FY2009

FY 2010

FY 2011

FY 2012

5,591.2
5,936.1
51.5

7,789.1
2,197.9
39.3

10,059.5
2,270.4
29.1

9,494.3
565.3
5.6

12month
3m onth
movingtotal moving tota l

10,180.5
1,235.7
13.8

2,101.8
61.2
2.8

Thismonth

710.9
4.6
0.6

Note:r epr ese ntsvalue ofpr opertyoreconomicinte resttransfe rredasofdate de ednotedbytheRe corderofD ee ds.
Source :OCFO/ Re corderofDee dsandOCF O/ORA(calculate dfromtaxcollectionsanddepositsadjustedfortaxratechange s).

DC Economic and Revenue Trends: July 2013

DC Office of Revenue Analysis

Hospitality
Hotel revenues continue to rise
In May the 3-month moving total for hotel room-days sold
was 2.1% more than a year earlier. The average room rate
rose 1.5%, leading to an 3.6% gain in room revenue.

Hotel roomsalesrevenue:Ma y2011toMa y2013


(percentchangein3monthand12monthmoving
averagefromsameperiodofprioryear)
20

Employment in food services was 3.1% more in May than


a year earlier as measured by the 3-month moving
average. Hotel employment fell 1.1%, and retail lost 3.6%.

15

April airline traffic into the DC area was down 0.7% from
a year earlier as measured by the 3-month moving total.
Reagan National Airport gained 7.6%.

10
5

May13

Mar13

Jan13

Nov12

Sep12

Jul12

May12

Mar12

Jan12

Nov11

Sep11

Jul11

May11

5
10

3mo.movingaverage(may@3.6)
12mo.movingaverage(may@2.4)

Tab le1 9.H os pitality Indu stry:M ay 2 0 13

I nd icato r

FY 20 1 1

U n its

d ate

('M )
1y rc h
1y r% ch

m ay

7. 370
0. 248
3 .5

7.465
0.095
1 .3

7.618
0.153
2 .0

7.658
0.073
1.0

2.1 88
0.0 45
2.1

0 .716
0 .002
0.3

A v era g er oom ra t e

$
1y rc h
1y r% ch

m ay

199. 12
4. 05
2 .0

206. 60
7. 49
3 .8

203.61
2.99
1 .4

208 .02
2 .93
1.4

231.85
3.49
1.5

22 4.90
6.84
3.0

O cc upa nc y ra te
(av e rag e)

%
1y rc h
1y r% ch

m ay

73 .8
0 .7
0 .9

74 .2
0 .5
0 .6

75 .4
1 .2
1 .6

7 5.9
0.9
1.2

85.6
1.5
1.8

83.1
0.5
0.6

R oo m r evenu e

($M )
1y rc h
1y r% ch

m ay

1 ,467 .5
20 .5
1 .4

1 ,542 .3
74 .8
5 .1

1 ,551 .0
8 .7
0 .6

159 3.0
3 7.4
2.4

507.4
17.9
3.6

1 61.1
5.4
3.2

1y r% ch
1y r% ch
1y r% ch
1y r% ch

ap r
ap r
ap r
ap r

0 .5
1 .2
4 .6
2 .1

6 .2
0 .6
4 .2
3 .4

2 .8
2 .9
1 .0
0 .1

6.5
4.7
0.0
0.2

7.6
6.3
2.4
0.7

5.5
6.4
4.6
2.2

m ay

94 .4
2 .8
3 .1

98 .0
3 .6
3 .9

93 .5
4 .5
4 .6

10 1.4
7.3
7.7

28.5
10.2
55.5

10.7
8.0
291.6

lev el(' 000)


1y rc h
1y r% ch

m ay

15 .3
0 .3
2 .0

15 .3
0 .0
0 .1

15 .5
0 .2
1 .1

1 5.5
0.0
0.1

15.5
0.2
1.1

15.8
0.3
1.9

F ood a nd bev

lev el(' 000)


1y rc h
1y r% ch

m ay

37 .0
1 .2
3 .3

39 .3
2 .3
6 .2

42 .7
3 .3
8 .5

4 3.4
1.7
4.0

44.7
1.3
3.1

45.8
1.6
3.6

A rt sa nd enter ta in .

lev el(' 000)


1y rc h

m ay

7 .0
0 .1

6 .8
0 .2

6 .9
0 .1

7.0
0.2

6.9
0.4

7.2
0.5

1 .5

2 .5

1 .5

2.7

5.5

6.5

18 .3
0 .5
3 .0

18 .6
0 .2
1 .3

18 .8
0 .3
1 .4

1 8.4
0.3
1.4

18.0
0.7
3.6

18.0
0.9
4.8

H ot el stay s
H otel r oom da ys so ld

A ir lin ep asseng er s
DC A
IAD
BWI
Tot a l

C on ve nti on Ce nte r Tran sfer


$M
1y rc h
1y r% ch
Em ploy m en t
A cc om m o dati ons

1y r% ch
R eta il

lev el(' 000)


1y rc h
1y r% ch

m ay

FY 20 1 0

FY 20 1 2

3mo n th
1 2m oto tal mo ving tota l
o rave rag e* o rave rag e* Th ism on th

* To talfo rh otelr oo m ss o ld, roo m rev enu e, an dC o nve ntio n Ce nte rtran s fe r
So u rce :Sm ith T rave lR ese arc h (ho teld ata );B LS(e m p loym e nt);A irpo rta uth o rities (a irlin ep as se ng ers );
O C FO / O TR (Co n ven tion Ce nte rTra n sfer).

DC Economic and Revenue Trends: July 2013

10

DC Office of Revenue Analysis

US economy
Economic growth picked up in the March quarter

Qua rterlycha ngei nUSRealandNominalGDP:


2010.1to2013.1

March was the 15th consecutive quarter of real GDP growth. The
1.8% annual rate of growth for the quarter was below average for
the post-recession recovery.

(%changefromthepreviousquarteratannualrates)
7
6

US employment (seas. adj.) increased by 195,000 in June.

The US unemployment rate (seasonally adj.) stayed at 7.6% in


June.

4
2
1

2013.1

2012.4

2012.3

2012.2

2012.1

2011.4

2011.3

Inflation picked up in June. The June CPI was 1.8% above a year
earlier (sa).

2011.2

2011.1

2010.4

2010.3

2010.2

2010.1

In June the S & P 500 index fell 1.3% from May, but was 22.3%
above last year.

Real(2013.1@1.8)
Nominal(2013.1@3.1)

Table20.USGDP,income,corporateprofits,andinflation:2013.1andMay2013

(percentchangefromsameperiodofprioryearunlessnoted)
Indicator

Dateoflatestindicator

FY2008

FY2009

FY2010

FY2011

FY2012

12moavg

2013.1

May2013

USGDPreal
USGDPnominal

2013.1
2013.1

1yr%ch
1yr%ch

1.1
3.4

3.9
2.6

1.8
2.8

1.9
4.0

2.3
4.2

2.0
3.8

1.8
3.4

USPersonalincome
USwages

2013.1
2013.1

1yr%ch
1yr%ch

5.6
3.4

3.4
3.5

1.5
0.4

5.4
4.0

3.3
3.1

3.7
3.7

2.8
3.2

Corporateprofits
SandPstockindex

2013.1
may

1yr%ch
1yr%ch

11.2
5.7

12.2
34.3

35.9
23.7

9.1
13.8

8.4
5.4

na
13.7

na
15.7

22.3

may
may

1yr%ch
1yr%ch

4.4
5.0

0.3
0.3

1.7
1.7

2.7
3.0

2.4
2.4

1.7
1.8

1.7
na

1.4
1.2

USCPI
Balt//Wash.areaCPI

Source:BEA(datarevisedasofMay30,2013),BLS,andYahoofinance.na=notavailable
Personalincomeandwagedatamaydifferfromamountsshownintable8duetodifferencesinBEAsourcetables.

Table 21.Qu arterto q uarter chan gein US G D Pan d in com e:2011.3to 201 3.1
(p erc en tch ange fr om pr evio u squ art eratse ason allya dju sted ann u alr ates)
Indicator

units

201 1.3

calenda rye arquarter


2 011.4
20 12.1

2012 .2

2 012.3

2 012.4

2 013.1

USGD Pre al
USGD Pn om in al

% c hfro m p riorQ a tsaar


% c hfro m p riorQ a tsaar

1 .3
4 .3

4.1
4.2

2.0
4.2

1.3
2.8

3. 1
5. 9

0 .4
1 .3

1.8
3.1

W age sa nd salaries
P erso n alin com e

% c hfro m p riorQ a tsaar


% c hfro m p riorQ a tsaar

1 .3
1 .2

0.9
1.3

8.0
6.4

1.4
3.0

2. 3
2. 4

10 .0
10 .7

1.0
4.7

Note:GDP=Gross Dom es ticProductsaar= se asonallyadjuste datannualrate Source :BE A ,updatedonJune26,20 13

Table 22.M on th ly s ele cte dUSIndicators :De ce m be r2 012to June 2013


D ec

Jan

Feb

M ar

Apr

M ay

June

S an dP stoc k ind ex(l evel )


% chan gefr ompr ior m on th
%ch ang e fro m 1y earago

I ndicator

1422
2.0
14.4

1480
4.1
13.8

1512
2.2
11.8

15 51
2 .5
11 .6

157 1
1 .3
13 .3

164 0
4.4
22.3

1619
1.3
22.3

1 0y r.Treasu ry Interest rate (lev el)

1.71

1.89

1.97

1.95

1.7 3

1.9 2

2.29

C PI % chf ro mpriormo nt h(season all ya dj usted)


C PI% ch fro mprio ryear (seasona lly ad just ed)

0.03
1.76

0.03
1.76

0.68
1.98

0.18
1.48

0.3 7
1.1 1

0.1 5
1.3 9

0.48
1.76

J obs (seaso nall y ad just edl evel , inm illi ons)


ch an ge fro mp rio r mont h( tho usands)
% chan gefr ompr ior m on th

134.69
219
0.16

134.84
148
0.1 1

135.17
332
0.2 5

135.31
1 42
0.11

1 35.5 1
19 9
0.15

1 35.7 1
19 5
0.14

13 5.90
195
0.14

R esid ent emplo ymen t( seaso n.adj.l evel ,i nmi l.)


ch an ge fro mp rio r mont h( tho usands)
% chan gefr ompr ior m on th

143.31
28
0.02

143.32
17
0.0 1

1 43.4 9
170
0.1 2

14 3.29
2 06
0.06

143.58
29 3
0.20

143.90
31 9
0.22

144.06
160
0.11

7.8

7.9

7.7

7 .6

7 .5

7.6

7.6

U nemp loy ment rate(season ally adj.)


So urce: BLSan dY aho o!F ina nce .

DC Economic and Revenue Trends: July 2013

11

DC Office of Revenue Analysis

DC tax collections
Tota l DCta xcollections(beforeearmarking):
Ma y2008toMa y2013

Cha ngefromprioryeari ntotaltaxescollectedi n


thepreceeding12months(beforeearmarking):
Ma y2011toMa y2013

(12monthmovingtotalin$million)
6,500

($million)
800

6,000

600

5,500

May13

Nov12

Aug12

May12

Nov11

Aug11

May11

sept2008(peakbeforerecession'simpact)@5,342may@
6,071

Feb13

Feb12

May13

Nov12

May12

Nov11

May11

Nov10

May10

Nov09

200

May09

4,500

Nov08

400

May08

5,000

may@490

Table23.T ax Collections(be foree arma rking ):M ay2013(Pre liminary)


($m illion)

Ta x

1 2 m onth
3month
moving total m oving tota l This month

FY2 00 9

FY2 0 10

F Y2 01 1

F Y2 01 2

To tal taxes
1y ear change
% chan ge

5,03 2.8
30 9.5
5.8

5,015.4
17.4
0.3

5,326.3
311.0
6 .2

5,80 6.1
47 9.8
9.0

6,07 1.1
48 9.7
8.8

2,074.6
86.8
4 .4

336.1
89.3
21.0

R ealp ro pert y
1y ear change
% chan ge

1,81 8.8
13 4.0
8.0

1,834.8
15.9
0.9

1,707.0
127.8
7 .0

1,81 6.4
10 9.5
6.4

1,85 5.7
8 7.8
5.0

949.7
30.0
3.3

2.4
34.8
93.7

G eneralsales
1y ear change
% chan ge

96 3.5
4 8.1
4.8

965.3
1.8
0.2

1,017.0
51.7
5 .4

1,08 4.6
6 7.6
6.6

1,12 0.2
5 4.8
5.1

286.1
4.4
1 .5

108.6
17.1
18.7

Ind ivi dual inc ome


1y ear change
% chan ge

1,12 7.2
22 6.0
16.7

1,107.1
20.1
1.8

1,297.0
189.9
17 .2

1,47 9.0
18 2.0
1 4.0

1,63 6.4
22 7.9
16.2

447.3
44.7
11 .1

123.1
58.7
32.3

wi thho ldi ng
1y ear change
% chan ge

1,02 1.2
1 7.0
1.7

1,070.6
49.4
4.8

1,189.9
119.3
11 .1

1,31 1.9
12 2.0
1 0.3

1,37 9.6
10 8.9
8.6

359.7
16.9
4 .9

120.3
1.0
0.9

no nwi thh oldi ng


1y ear change
% chan ge

10 6.0
24 3.0
69.6

36.5
69.5
65.6

107.1
70.6
193 .3

16 7.1
6 0.0
5 6.0

25 6.9
11 9.0
86.3

87.6
27.8
46 .4

2.8
57.7
95.3

C or porate inco me
1y ear change
%ch ange

22 0.7
6 9.2
23.9

207.9
12.8
5.8

225.8
17.9
8 .6

31 1.2
8 5.4
3 7.8

32 5.3
5 6.7
21.1

111.2
4.1
3 .8

4.9
5.0
50.9

U nin corpo rated B us.


1y ear change
% chan ge

12 2.4
6.5
5.0

120.7
1.7
1.4

141.5
20.9
17 .3

15 9.3
1 7.7
1 2.5

15 8.1
6.5
4.0

67.8
0.6
0 .9

5.9
22.1
79.0

D eedt ax es*
1y ear change
% chan ge

18 7.4
13 5.8
42.0

225.6
38.2
20.4

314.1
88.5
39 .2

31 2.5
1.6
0.5

35 0.5
6 7.2
23.7

79.9
23.7
42 .2

30.4
4.4
17.1

O t her taxes
1y ear change
% chan ge

59 2.8
4 2.1
7.6

554.0
38.8
6.5

623.9
70.0
12 .6

64 3.2
1 9.2
3.1

62 4.8
1.9
0.3

132.5
20.7
13 .5

61.0
9.8
19.1

* De ed taxes in clu d ed eed reco rda tio n,d ee dtra n sfer, an de co n omicin tere stta xes on rea lpr op ertytra ns a ctio n s.
No te:(1 ) Inclu de sp ub licsp a ce ren tal(in oth erta xes ). (2)De ed taxco llection sw illva ryfromp a ymen tsto Reco rde rofD eed s
(g rap he do n the ne xtp a ge )d ue top ro cess ing a nd timin ge ffects .
(3 )D ata s ub jectto accou n ting ad ju stme nts .
(4 )T his ta ble an dth eg ra ph so n th en extp ag ein clud ea d jus tmen tsto th etimin ga n dco ns iste ncyo fco llection re po rting
in ten de dto ma keco mpa ris on sw ithp rio ryea rp erio ds mo remea n ing ful. Th ed ata ma ythe refore vary fro mo the rOCF Orep orts .
So u rce :OCFO/ ORA

DC Economic and Revenue Trends: July 2013

12

DC Office of Revenue Analysis

DC tax collections
Growth has moderated in the sales tax and the
withholding portion of the individual income tax
DCTa xCol l ections(beforeearmarking):
Ma y2011toMa y2013

For the 12-month period ending May tax collections (before


earmarking) were $489.7million (8.8%) more than a year
earlier. The individual income tax accounts for 47% of the
increase.

30

Sales and withholding gains slowed from prior months.

20

(%changein3monthand12monthmovingtotals)

In May the 3-month moving total for sales taxes was 1.5%
above last year and withholding was 4.9% higher.

10

Deed tax payments to the DC Recorder of Deeds for

May13

Mar13

Jan13

Nov12

Sep12

Jul12

May12

Mar12

Jan12

Nov11

Sep11

10

Jul11

May11

transfers, recordation, and economic interest were up 14.0%


from the prior year for the 3 months ending May. For the
last 12-month period, the payments were up 20.4%. (See
note 2 on Table 23.)

3monthmovingtotal(may@4.4)
12monthmovingtotal(may@8.8)

Wi thholdingcollections:Ma y2011toMa y2013

Salestaxcollections:May2011toMay2013

(%changefromprioryearin3monthand12month
movingtotals)

(%changefromprioryearin3monthand12month
movingtotals)
30

20
15

20

10

10

5
May13

Mar13

Jan13

Nov12

Sep12

Jul12

May12

Mar12

Jan12

Nov11

Sep11

Jul11

10

May11

May13

Mar13

Jan13

Nov12

Sep12

Jul12

May12

Mar12

Jan12

Nov11

Sep11

Jul11

May11

20
12monthmovingtotal(may@5.1)

12monthmovingtotal(may@8.6)

3monthmovingtotal(may@1.5)

3monthmovingtotal(may@4.9)

PaymentstoDCRecorderofDeedsforrecordation,
transfer,andeconomicinteresttaxes:
May2011toMay2013

CollectionsfortheGeneralSalestaxandIndividual
Incometaxwithholding:May2012toMay2013
(%changein3monthmovingtotals)

(%changein3monthand12monthmovingtotals)

20
10

12monthmovingtotal(may@20.4)
3monthmovingtotal(may@14.0)
Note:sourceisRecorderofDeeds,notTable23.

DC Economic and Revenue Trends: July 2013

13

DC Office of Revenue Analysis

May13

Mar13

Jan13

Nov12

Sep12

Jul12

May12

Mar12

Jan12

Nov11

Sep11

sales (may @ 1.5)

Jul11

May-13

Apr-13

Feb-13

Mar-13

withholding (may @ 4.9)

Jan-13

Dec-12

Nov-12

Sep-12

Oct-12

Aug-12

Jul-12

20

Jun-12

10

May-12

May11

140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
20
40
60

30

US economic forecasts
The July Blue Chip Indicators reduced its outlook for FY 2013
The July Blue Chip Indicators reduced its FY 2013 forecast for real GDP growth to 1.6%, but kept its FY 2014 forecast at
2.5%. Since FY 2000, GDP growth has exceeded 2.5% in only 3 years: FY 2004, 2005, and 2006.
The July Blue Chip Indicators forecast for inflation (CPI): 1.6% in FY 2013 and 1.7% in FY 2014.
S and P 500: The range of June forecasts for the last quarter of 2013 compared to the last quarter of 2012: -1.0 to 14.4%.

Table24.ForecastsforUSnominalandrealGDP:
FY2012throughFY2014(% changefrompriorfiscalyear)
real
Forecastanddate

2012

BlueChip
April
May
June
July

(%changefromtheprioryear;July2013estimate)

nominal

2013

CongressionalBudgetOffice
January2012
2.1
August
2.0
February2013
2.3

Bl ueChipIndicatorsestimateofUSNominala nd
Rea lGDP:FY2007toFY2014

2014

2012

2013

2.1

3.7
3.9
4.2

2.6
2.0
3.1

1.2
0.4
1.5

2014

6
4
2

3.8

0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
est
est

1.9
1.8
1.8
1.6

2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3

2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

4.2
4.2
4.2
4.2

3.6
3.4
3.4
3.2

4.5
4.3
4.3
4.2

4
6
Real(2014@2.5)
Nominal(2014@4.3)

Sources:BlueChipIndicatorsandtheCongressionalBudgetOffice.

Table25. ForecastsforSandP500:2012.4to2014.4

SandP500stockindex actualandalternative
forecasts:2006.4to2014.4
(Juneforecasts;valueofindex)

(%changefrompriorfiscalyear)

1682

1700

1511

1300
1100

March
April
May
June

15.7
15.7
15.7
15.7

900

9.1
12.8
13.8
14.4

3.9
3.7
3.7
3.6

Economy.combaseline

March
April
May
June

2014.2

2013.3

2012.4

2012.1

2011.2

2010.3

2009.4

2009.1

2008.2

2007.3

2006.4

700

%changefromprioryear
2012.4

GlobalInsight:baseline

1515

1500

Forecast %changefromprioryear
date
2012.4 2013.4 2014.4

Actual

15.7
15.7
15.7
15.7

10.8
11.4
11.2
12.9

1.8
2.2
2.5
2.4

2013.4

2014.4

GlobalInsight:pessimistic

15.7
15.7
15.7
15.7

6.2
3.0
2.2
1.0

Economy.compessimistic

15.7
15.7
15.7
15.7

3.6
4.2
7.8
9.5

Source:IHSGlobalInsightandMoody'sEconomy.com.

Table26.BlueChipforecastsforCPIand10yearTreasuryinterest
rate:FY2012toFY2014
(%changefrompriorfiscalyear)
Forecast
date

Apr
May
Jun
Jul

CPI
2012

2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

2013

1.9
1.7
1.7
1.6

10yrTreasuryrate
2014

2.1
1.9
1.8
1.7

2012

1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9

2013

2.0
1.9
1.9
2.0

2014

2.5
2.4
2.4
2.7

Source:BlueChipIndicators

DC Economic and Revenue Trends: July 2013

14

8.6
8.5
8.4
7.6

DC Office of Revenue Analysis

0.1
0.3
1.4
1.2

DC economic forecasts
June forecasts for DC by Global Insight and Economy.com lowered wage earnings
The biggest change in June is the reduction by Global Insight in its estimate of both wages earned in DC and
wages earned by DC residents FY 2013. Economy.com has more modest reductions in those items. Both, however, raised their estimates for wage and salary employment in DC in FY 2013.
Employment: The range of change in wage and salary employment for FY 2013 is 4,625 to 5,929; and for FY

2014: 668 to 8,681.

Unemployment: . The unemployment rate forecast range for FY 2013 is from 8.5% to 8.6%. For FY 2014 the

range is 8.3% to 9.9%.

Wages earned in DC: The range in growth from the prior year: -0.9% to 1.7% in FY 2013, picking up to 2.2% to

4.7% in FY 2014.

Wages earned by DC residents: The range in growth from the prior year: -5.8% to 1.2% in FY 2013, and 2.4% to

3.7% in FY 2014. Both forecasts anticipate that the growth in resident wages in FY 2013 and FY 2014 will be
lower than those for growth in wages earned in DC, a reversal of recent trends.
Table27.JobsinDC:forecastsforFY2012toFY2014
(amountofchangefromprioryear)
Dateof
estimate

Mar
Apr
May
Jun

GlobalInsight:baseline
2012

2013

12,467
6,659
6,659
6,659

GlobalInsight:pessimistic

2014

3,141
5,211
5,563
5,929

2012

9,523
8,683
8,382
8,681

2013

12,467
6,658
6,658
6,658

Economy.com:baseline

2014

1,936
4,443
5,083
5,671

2012

5,146
5,137
5,144
5,974

2013

6,658
6,658
6,658
6,658

Economy.com:pessimistic

2014

5,139
4,530
4,588
4,887

2012

5,393
5,105
4,718
4,663

2013

6,658
6,658
6,658
6,658

2014

4,160
3,566
4,361
4,625

151
509
245
668

Source:IHSGlobalInsightandMoody'sEconomy.com.

Table28.UnemploymentrateinDCFY2012toFY2014
Dateof
estimate

Mar
Apr
May
Jun

GlobalInsight:baseline
2012
2013
2014

9.3
9.3
9.3
9.3

8.6
8.6
8.5
8.5

GlobalInsight:pesssimistic
2013
2014
2012

8.5
8.5
8.4
8.4

9.3
9.3
9.3
9.3

8.7
8.7
8.6
8.6

Economy.com:baseline
2012
2013
2014

9.2
9.0
8.9
8.8

9.3
9.3
9.3
9.3

8.5
8.5
8.4
8.5

Economy.com:pessimistic
2012
2013
2014

8.4
8.3
8.3
8.3

9.3
9.3
9.3
9.3

8.8
8.7
8.5
8.6

9.9
9.8
9.9
9.9

Source:IHSGlobalInsightandMoody'sEconomy.com.

Table29.WagesearnedinDCFY2012toFY2014
(percentchangefromprioryear)
Dateof
estimate

Mar
Apr
May
Jun

GlobalInsight:baseline
2012
2013
2014

1.8
2.1
2.1
2.1

1.4
1.0
0.3
0.8

GlobalInsight:pessimistic
2012
2013
2014

4.5
4.4
4.8
3.5

1.8
2.1
2.1
2.1

1.0
0.7
0.1
0.9

Economy.com:baseline
2012
2013
2014

2.9
2.9
3.3
2.2

1.8
2.1
2.1
2.1

2.2
2.3
2.1
1.7

Economy.com:pessimistic
2012
2013
2014

5.6
5.6
5.5
4.7

1.8
2.1
2.1
2.1

1.9
2.0
2.0
1.6

4.0
3.9
4.0
3.2

Source:IHSGlobalInsightandMoody'sEconomy.com.

Table30.DCresidentwagesFY2012toFY2014
(percentchangefromprioryear)
Dateof
estimate

Mar
Apr

GlobalInsight:baseline
2012
2013
2014

GlobalInsight:pessimistic
2013
2014
2012

2.9
3.2

0.6
1.6

4.3
3.9

2.9
3.2

1.4
2.1

May

3.2

3.0

4.8

3.2

Jun

3.2

5.5

0.5

3.2

Economy.com:baseline
2012
2013
2014

Economy.com:pessimistic
2012
2013
2014

0.3
0.4

2.9
3.2

1.8
1.8

4.4
4.4

2.9
3.2

1.6
1.6

3.2
3.2

3.4

1.5

3.2

1.5

4.2

3.2

1.5

3.2

5.8

2.4

3.2

1.2

3.7

3.2

1.2

2.6

Note:EstimatedbyORA;assumeswageandsalarysupplementsarethesame%forDCresidentwagesasforwagesearnedinDC.

DC Economic and Revenue Trends: July 2013

15

DC Office of Revenue Analysis

DC revenue estimate
The June revenue estimate adds to revenue growth in FY 2013 and FY 2014
Anticipated tax revenue growth of $187.4 million in FY 2013 and $159.2 million in FY 2014 (gains of 3.2% and 2.6%,
respectively) are significantly lower than that which occurred in FY 2012 ($537 and 10.1%). This reflects one-time
increases in FY 2012, slowing employment growth in DC, and allowances for the impact of a sequester or other cutbacks in
federal spending.
The individual income tax accounts for about 70% of growth in FY 2013, and real property accounts for 49% of the growth
in FY 2014.
As a share of DC Personal Income, tax collections in FY 2013 through FY 2015 are about the same as in FY 2012.

Table31.DCTaxRevenue(beforeearmarks)forFY2012throughFY2014:June2013revenueestimate
Tax
FYlevel($million)
Changefromprioryear($M)
%changefromprioryear
2012
Realproperty
Deedtaxes
Generalsales

2013

2014

2012

2013

2014

2012

2013

2014

1,822.0

1,889.8

1,967.5

106.9

67.8

77.7

6.2

3.7

4.1

306.6

305.4

317.1

4.5

1.3

11.7

1.5

0.4

3.8

1,111.0

1,155.5

1,190.1

96.1

44.4

34.7

9.5

4.0

3.0

Individualincome

1,490.7

1,621.6

1,642.1

194.1

130.9

20.5

15.0

8.8

1.3

Withholding

1,321.6

1,412.6

1,434.6

129.5

91.0

22.0

10.9

6.9

1.6

nonwithholding

169.1

209.0

207.4

64.6

39.9

1.5

61.9

23.6

0.7

Businessincome

465.9

469.7

476.6

106.2

3.8

6.8

29.5

0.8

1.5

Other

665.5

607.2

615.0

37.7

58.3

7.8

6.0

8.8

1.3

5,861.8

6,049.2

6,208.4

536.5

187.4

159.2

10.1

3.2

2.6

Total

Source:ORA.June24,2013revenueestimateunderexistinglegislation.Thetableincludestaxrevenueonly,beforeallearmarks,andexcludesall
nontaxrevenues,lottery,and"Otyoe"earmarkedrevenues.FY2012isfromtheFY2012CAFR

Table33. DCIncomeandstockmarketassumptions:
FY2012toFY2014(%changefromprioryear)

Table32.DClabormarketassumptions:FY2012toFY2014

item
Wageandsalary
employment
1yearchange
%change
DCresident
employment
1yearchange
%change

2012

2013

2014

730,025
6,658
0.9

734,531
4,506
0.6

733,901
631
0.1

323,512
11,396
3.7

340,451
16,940
5.2

341,156
705
0.2

9.3

8.6

9.5

Unemploymentrate

Source:ORAJune2013revenueestimate

item
Wagesandsalariesearnedin
DC

2012

2013

2014

2.1

0.0

1.4

Wagesandsalariesearned
byDCresidents

3.2

4.7

1.7

DCPersonalincome

3.8

4.2

2.3

15.7

2.8

4.7

SandP500stockindex

Source:ORAJune2013revenue estimate.Stockindex,onacalendar year


basis,representsthe%changefromtheDecemberquarteroftheprioryear.

Table34.DCtaxrevenue(beforeearmarks)andDCPersonalIncome:FY2006to FY2015
item

2006

20 07

2008

2009

2010

201 1

2 012

2013est

2014est

2 015est

Taxrevenue($million)
Level
Changefromprioryear
Percentchangefromprio ryear
Taxrevenue
PersonalIncome
Taxrevenueaspercentof
PersonalInco me

4,51 6
26 7

5,155
638

5,325
170

5,052
273

5,005
47

5,3 25
3 20

5,862
537

6,049
187

6,208
159

6,3 82
1 74

6.3
8.2

14.1
8.1

3.3
9.6

5.1
0.4

0.9
4.1

6.4
6.8

10.1
3.8

3.2
4.2

2.6
2.3

2.8
3.3

1 3.3

14.0

13.2

12.5

1 1.9

11.8

12.5

12.4

12.5

12.4

Source:ORA.June2013r evenueestimateunderexistinglegislation.Thetableincludestaxrevenueonly,beforeallearmarks,andexcludesall
nontaxr evenues,lottery,and"Otype"earmarkedrevenues.

DC Economic and Revenue Trends: July 2013

16

DC Office of Revenue Analysis

Continued from p.1

Falling reported DC employment, continued from p.1


to be particularly susceptible to revision because it is related in part to the Districts population. Recent gains
in DCs population may not yet have been fully factored into BLS estimates for this year.
In developing a fuller picture of current conditions in the Districts economy, it should be noted that there are
other measures than the recent BLS employment data that do not suggest the same degree of slowing. For example, occupied commercial office space has grown each of the past 3 quarters, and was 1.5% higher in June
2013 than it was in September 2012. Also, tax collections for withholding for the individual income tax and the
general sales taxthe two sources of collections most directly connected to the current level of economic activity in the Districthave been increasing throughout the fiscal year.
Although it is too early to draw definite conclusions about the current direction of the Districts economy, the
recent BLS employment data underscore the importance of paying close attention to two key areas in making
such assessments: (1) the strength of private sector employment growth, and (2) labor force dynamics involving
the interaction of population changes, the labor force, and the unemployment rate.
Private sector employment. Employment in the federal government, which currently accounts for about
28% of all DC jobs, has been falling for two years, declining by 10,700 jobs (5%) between May 2011 and May
2013. Accordingly, with a pick-up in federal employment unlikely in the near future, the question of whether
total DC employment rises or falls depends on the strength of the private sector. For much of the past two
years private sector employment increases more than offset federal declines. Over the past 7 months, however,
this has no longer been the case. From October 2012 to May 2013 the private sector gain of 2,200 (mostly in
technical services and food services) was unable to offset the decrease of 4,300 federal jobs.
WageandsalaryemploymentinDCbysector:May2012toMay2013
(seasonallyadjusted)

AlljobslocatedinDC

May12
730,100

Jun12
730,700

Jul12
727,500

Aug12
728,500

Sep12
734,100

Oct12
736,400

Nov12
733,400

Dec12
733,000

Jan13
734,700

Feb13
733,600

Mar13
734,300

Apr13
733,100

May13
733,800

Federalgovernment
Privatesector

208,600
486,900

208,100
487,900

208,400
486,400

208,400
488,600

208,200
491,600

207,300
494,300

206,800
491,700

206,300
491,700

206,400
493,200

206,100
492,300

205,500
494,100

204,900
494,200

203,000
496,500

Source:USBureauofLaborStatistics,May2013

Labor force dynamics. As noted earlier, resident employment grew by 31,355 between July 2011 and March
2013. Of the increase, about 20% is attributable to a fall in the unemployment rate (from 10.3% to 8.5%). The
remainder of the employment growth reflects a 7% increase in the Districts labor force.
One of the surprising things about the decline in resident employment in the past 2 months is that it is attributable entirely to a drop in the labor force. The fall of almost 1,000 in the labor force was great enough to offset
the modest boost to employment that otherwise would have been associated with the small decline in the unemployment rate (from 8.6% to 8.5%). The decline in the labor force could reflect the impact of persons unable
to find work leaving the labor forceso called discouraged workers. Over the longer term, however, sustained
increases in the working age population can be expected to result in an increase in the labor force, which in
turn would lead to higher resident employment if the unemployment rate doesnt rise. (Gains would be greater,
of course, if the unemployment rate also falls at the same time.)
It should be noted that an increase in resident employment does not necessarily require a net increase in wage
and salary employment located in the District of Columbia. District residents can take jobs now held by commuters as those commuters retire or move, and District residents can also work in jobs outside of DC.
Stephen Swaim, Office of Revenue Analysis
DClaborforce,unemploymentrate,andresidentemployment:May2012toMay2013
(seasonallyadjusted)

Laborforce

May12
359,301

Jun12
360,713

Jul12
362,211

Aug12
363,923

Sep12
365,952

Oct12
367,771

Nov12
369,320

Dec12
370,717

Jan13
372,240

Feb13
373,130

Mar13
373,138

Apr13
372,468

May13
372,142

Unemloymentrate(%)
Residentemployment

9.1
326,547

9.1
327,919

9.0
329,503

8.9
331,461

8.8
333,841

8.6
336,010

8.5
337,835

8.4
339,422

8.6
340,227

8.6
340,941

8.6
341,229

8.5
340,933

8.5
340,564

Source:USBureauofLaborStatistics,May2013

DC Economic and Revenue Trends: July 2013

17

DC Office of Revenue Analysis

ORA Reports and Documents


From time to time the Office of Revenue Analysis prepares revenue estimates, fiscal impact statements on pending legislation, reports, and other documents on subjects related to DC s economy and taxes. These documents are posted on the
OCFO web site (www.cfo.dc.gov) under subcategories of Reports and Publications and Budget and Revenue.

Recent ORA reports:


Revised Revenue estimates for FY 2013 to FY 2017, June 24, 2013. Quarterly revenue estimate shows differences from the
prior estimate, describes economic assumptions and changes in each tax, and contains details of each tax and of key economic variables.
Briefing documents. A new series with information related to DCs economy and taxes.
DC Tax Facts, 2012. Details on all DC taxes.
Tax Rates and Tax Burdens 2011 Nationwide. This annual publication compares DC tax rates and estimated DC tax burdens for
households of different income levels with the rates and burdens of state and local taxes in the principal cities in all 50 states.
Tax Rates and Tax Burdens 2011 Washington Metropolitan Area. This annual publication compares DC tax rates and estimated DC tax burdens for households of different income levels with the rates and burdens of the surrounding jurisdictions in the
DC metropolitan area.
About this report.
District of Columbia Economic and Revenue Trends is generally issued about the third week every month. Employment and most other DC information reported on a monthly basis is from one or two months prior to the Trends
date (the July report has mostly April and May data). Lags can be greater with quarterly data such as Personal
Income and commercial real estate. Data in the tables are believed to be reliable, but original sources are definitive.
All data are subject to revision by the information source. The Trends report is available at the DC Chief Financial Officer web-site: www.cfo.dc.gov (click on Budget and Revenue/Economy/ Economic and Revenue Trends).

Table35.Info rmationsour ces


Indicator

Sour ce

Periodcoveredinthisreport

Nextr elease

D.C.Jobsa ndLaborForceinfor mation

BLS

Ma y

19Jul

D.C.PersonalIncome

BEA

2013.1

September30

D.C.TaxCollections

OTR/ORA

Ma y

July15

D.C.HousingSa les
D.C.Comm ercialOfficeBuilding da ta

MRIS*
DeltaAssociates

June
2013.2

cAugust10
cOctober1

DCApartm entdata

Reis,inc

2013.1

cJuly31

D.C.Hotelstayinfor mation

SmithTravelResearch

Ma y

c.July30

ConsumerPriceIndex

BLS

June

Aug ust15

U.S .JobsandLaborF or ce

BLS

Ma yandJune

Aug ust2

U.S .GDPandPersona lIncome

BEA

2013.1

July31

S andP500StockIndex

Financialpress

June

Aug ust1

Interestrateon10Y ea rTreasurySecurities

Financialpress

June

Aug ust1

IHS GlobalInsightD.C.forecast

Gl obalInsight

June

c.July24

Moody'sEconom y.comD.C.for ecast

Econom y.com

June

c.July24

BlueChipEconom icIndica torsfor theU.S.

AspenPublishers

July

Aug ust10

*Me tropolitanRegionalInformationSystems;listingsandcontractdataaccesse dthroughthe Gre ate rCapitalA reaAssociationofRealtors.

For further information or to comment on this report, contact: Stephen Swaim (202-727-7775) or
stephen.swaim@dc.gov See also the Economic Indicators issued monthly by the D.C. Office of the Chief Financial Officer (www.cfo.dc.gov).
District of Columbia Economic and Revenue Trends is prepared by the Office of Revenue Analysis, which is
part of the Office of the Chief Financial Officer of the District of Columbia government.
Fitzroy Lee, Deputy Chief Financial Officer and Chief Economist
Office of Revenue Analysis
1101 4th St., SW, Suite W770
Washington D.C. 20024
202-727-7775
DC Economic and Revenue Trends: July 2013

18

DC Office of Revenue Analysis

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