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OFFICEOFTHECHIEFFINANCIALOFFICER
OFFICEOFREVENUEANALYSIS
DistrictofColumbiaEconomicandRevenueTrends:July2013
VincentC.Gray,MayorFitzroyLee,DeputyCFO&ChiefEconomist
NatwarM.Gandhi,ChiefFinancialOfficerStephenC.Swaim,SeniorEconomist
Junehighlights:
Slowjobgrowth.........2
Slowerresidentemploy
ment.......4
Moreoccupiedoffice
space....8
Indicatorupdates:
Wageandsalaryemployment..2
SectorsoftheDCeconomy....3
Residentemploymentandunem
ployment.... 4
Wagesandincome.......5
Residentialrealestate...6
Commercialofficespace....8
Realestateconstructionoutlook
andvalueoftransactions....9
Hospitality...........10
USeconomy.....11
DCtaxcollections......12
WageandsalaryemploymentinDC:May
2012toMay2013(seasonallyadjusted)
740,000
May13
Mar13
Jan13
Nov12
Sep12
May13
Feb13
Mar13
Apr13
ORAcontactinformation..18
Nov12
Dec12
Jan13
720,000
Jul12
725,000
Sep12
Oct12
Aboutthisreport...........18
730,000
Jun12
Jul12
Aug12
ORAreports&documents....18
350,000
340,000
330,000
320,000
310,000
735,000
May12
DCrevenueestimate........16
May12
USandDCforecasts.......14
DCresidentemployment: May
2012toMay2013seasonally
adjusted)
Changeinwageandsalaryemploymentlocatedin
DC,theDC suburbs,and theUS:
May2011toMay2013
(%changefromprioryearin3monthmovingaverage)
3.0
2.0
1.0
May13
Feb13
Nov12
Aug12
May12
Nov11
1.0
May11
Feb12
0.0
Aug11
DC(may@0.3)
DCsuburbs(may@1.8)
US(may@1.6)
Table1.Wageandsalaryemploymentin DC,WashingtonMetroarea,andtheUS:May2013
Jurisdiction
DistrictofColumbia
1yearchange
%change
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
709,075
7,442
1.1
723,233
14,158
2.0
730,033
6,800
0.9
732,983
3,900
0.5
732,700
2,267
0.3
730,300
200
0.0
2,956,233
8,083
0.3
2,998,442
42,208
1.4
3,030,808
32,367
1.1
3,057,542
35,608
1.2
3,075,733
43,633
1.4
3,092,100
48,500
1.6
W ashingtonsuburbs(%ch)
0.7
1.2
1.1
1.4
1.8
2.1
US(%ch)
1.9
1.2
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
W ashingtonmetroarea
1yearchange
%change
12moavg 3moaverage
Thi smonth
Table2.FederalgovernmentandprivatesectorwageandsalaryemploymentinDC:May2013
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
12moavg
3month
average
208,233
10,183
5.1
213,258
5,025
2.4
208,600
4,658
2.2
206,392
3,917
1.9
203,433
4,100
2.0
202,600
4,800
2.3
Privatesector
464,100
474,833
1yearchange
1,158
10,733
%change
0.3
2.3
Source:BLS.Notseasonallyadjusted.Mayispreliminary.
486,708
11,875
2.5
492,258
8,183
1.7
495,967
6,867
1.4
494,200
5,400
1.1
Sector
Federalgovernment
1yearchange
%change
Thismonth
Table3.SeasonallyadjustedDCEmployment:November2012toMay2013
Indicator
D.C.WageandSalaryemployment
changefrompriormonth
%changefrompriormonth
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
733,400
3,000
0.4
733,000
400
0.1
734,700
1,700
0.2
733,600
1,100
0.1
734,300
700
0.1
733,100
1,200
0.2
733,800
700
0.1
Source:BLSseasonallyadjusted.Mayispr eliminar y
DC Economic and Revenue Trends: July 2013
Federalgovernmentandprivatesectorwageand
salaryemploymentinDC: May2011toMay2013
(%changefromprioryearin3monthmovingaverage)
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
May13
Mar13
Jan13
Sep12
Nov12
Jul12
May12
Mar12
Jan12
Sep11
Nov11
2.0
May11
1.0
Jul11
0.0
3.0
federalgov't(may@2.0)
privatesector(may@1.4)
Table4.WageandsalaryemploymentlocatedinDC:May2013
3monthmovingaverage
1yearchange
Industrysector
Federalgovernment
Localgovernm ent
12mo.
moving
avg:
%change
Sector%of
allDCjobs,
May2013
DCshare(%)inMay2013
ofallsectorjobsin:
ChangefromMay2012
toMay2013inDC
shareofsectorjobsin:
metro area
metroarea
US
US
1.9
1.1
27.8
4.5
54.8
10.3
7.39
0.17
0.4
0.6
0.01
0.00
Legalservices
OtherProfessionalandtechnical
29,633
75,600
29,333
78,167
300
2,567
1.0
3.4
1.1
3.6
4.0
10.7
na
22.4
2.64
1.12
na
0.5
0.04
0.00
Em ploymentservices
OtherBusinessservices
Information
13,833
33,433
17,367
13,367
34,300
16,600
467
867
767
3.4
2.6
4.4
3.3
1.9
5.4
1.8
4.7
2.3
35.1
18.0
21.9
0.46
0.47
0.63
0.9
0.3
1.1
0.06
0.01
0.04
Finance
28,100
28,400
300
1.1
1.2
3.9
19.1
0.37
0.1
0.00
Organizations
Education
60,367
51,067
61,300
54,533
933
3,467
1.5
6.8
1.6
4.3
8.4
7.4
37.0
52.2
2.09
1.61
0.7
0.3
0.03
0.08
Health
63,567
64,467
900
1.4
1.3
8.8
22.9
0.37
0.2
0.00
Foodservice
Accomodations
Amusementandrecreation
43,333
15,667
7,333
44,667
15,500
6,933
1,333
167
400
3.1
1.1
5.5
4.0
0.1
2.7
6.1
2.1
0.9
21.0
37.0
18.3
0.42
0.87
0.36
0.5
0.6
1.3
0.01
0.01
0.00
Retailtrade
18,700
18,033
667
3.6
1.4
2.5
6.9
0.12
0.2
0.01
4,900
5,000
100
2.0
5.1
0.7
8.0
0.09
0.3
0.00
Wholesaletrade
Construction
13,300
13,467
167
1.3
6.8
1.8
9.6
0.25
0.5
0.01
Personalandmiscellaneousser.
7,700
6,967
733
9.5
3.3
1.0
na
0.28
na
0.03
Otherprivate
5,200
4,933
267
5.1
3.1
0.7
4.5
0.03
0.0
0.00
730,433
732,700
2,267
0.3
0.5
100.0
24.0
0.54
0.2
0.01
Total
Publicsector
241,333
236,733
4,600
1.9
1.7
32.3
34.3
1.08
1.0
0.01
Privatesector
489,100
495,967
6,867
1.4
1.7
67.7
20.9
0.44
0.1
0.00
Professionalandallbusiness
197,967
200,167
2,200
1.1
1.0
27.3
21.5
0.85
0.0
0.01
3.0
2.3
24.6
31.6
0.58
0.4
Education,health,andorgs.
175,000
180,300
5,300
0.2
2.1
12.3
14.4
0.25
0.1
Hospitalityandtrade
89,933
90,133
200
Otherprivatesector
26,200
25,367
833
3.2
1.8
3.5
10.2
0.10
0.1
Source:BLS.notseasonallyadjusted.na=notavailable.Forthemetroarea,legalisincludedinotherprofessionalandtechnical,andpersonaland
miscellaneousservicesisincludedinorganizations(acategoryBLScalls"otherservices")
0.01
0.00
0.00
Resident employment
DCs resident employment growth has been slowing
ResidentemploymentinDC,theDC suburbs,and
theUS:May2011toMay2013
(%changefromprioryearin3monthmovingaverage)
8.0
6.0
4.0
May13
Mar13
Jan13
Nov12
Sep12
Jul12
May12
(%changefromprioryearin3mo.movingaverage)
Table5.UnemploymentratesforDC,metroarea,andUS:
May2013
6.0
(percentoflaborforce)
4.0
Notseasonallyadj.
May13
Feb13
jobsinDC(may@0.3)
Nov12
Aug12
May12
Feb12
Nov11
US
DCmetroarea
DC
DCsuburbs
Aug11
Jurisdiction
0.0
May11
2.0
2.0
Jan12
DC(may@4.6)
DCsuburbs(may@0.9)
US(may@1.1)
JobslocatedinDCandDC residentemployment
May2011to May2013
8.0
Mar12
Nov11
May11
2.0
Sep11
0.0
(3-
Jul11
2.0
DCres.jobs(may@4.6)
May2012
Seasonallyadj.
May2013
7.9
5.5
9.0
5.1
May2012
7.3
5.6
8.3
5.2
May2013
8.2
na
9.1
na
7.6
na
8.5
na
F Y2 01 0
F Y2 01 1
FY2 0 12
3 m o n th
ave rag e
1 2m oa vg
T his m o n th
308 ,513
4 ,332
1. 4
312 ,14 8
3 ,63 5
1. 2
32 3,41 2
1 1,26 4
3. 6
336, 379
19, 665
6. 2
339 ,223
14 ,780
4. 6
338, 746
11, 198
3 .4
La b or Fo rc e
1y ea r cha ng e
% c han ge
343 ,475
9 ,339
2. 8
347 ,47 0
3 ,99 5
1. 2
35 6,43 9
8,96 9
2. 6
368, 345
17, 260
4. 9
369 ,596
13 ,720
3. 9
369, 522
9, 690
2 .7
U ne m pl oy e d
1y ea r cha ng e
% c han ge
34 ,962
5 ,007
16. 7
35 ,32 2
36 0
1. 0
3 3,02 7
2,29 5
6. 5
31, 967
2, 406
7. 0
30 ,374
1 ,061
3. 4
30, 776
1, 508
4 .7
10.2
10. 2
9. 3
8. 7
8.2
8. 3
2 ,10 1
30 2
1,78 4
31 7
1, 845
9
1 ,686
90
1, 781
98
U ne m pl oy m e nt ra t e
1 ,799
404
18. 3
16. 8
15. 1
0. 5
5. 7
5 .8
53 ,592
46 ,42 3
4 5,17 0
42, 803
39 ,811
37, 634
1y ea r cha ng e
881
7 ,16 9
1,25 3
3, 975
3 ,045
7, 877
% c han ge
1. 6
13. 4
2. 7
8. 5
7. 1
17 .3
So u rce :L a bo rf orc e :B L S.U n em p loym en tIns u ran c e: USD ep to fL a bo r.N o tse as on a llyad j.
Table7.SeasonallyadjustedDCResidentemploymentandunemployment:November2012toMay2013
Indicator
DCResidentemployment
changefrompriormonth
%changefrompriormonth
DCUnemploymentrate(%)
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
337,835
1,825
0.5
339,422
1,587
0.5
340,227
805
0.2
340,941
714
0.2
341,229
288
0.1
340,933
296
0.1
340,564
369
0.1
8.5
8.4
8.6
8.6
8.6
8.5
8.5
Source:BLSseasonallyadjusted.Mayispreliminary
DC Economic and Revenue Trends: July 2013
WagesearnedinDC, wagesearnedby DC
residents,andwagesearnedintheUS:2010.1to
2013.1
(%changefromthesamequarteroftheprioryear)
6.0
3.0
2013.1
2012.4
2012.3
2012.2
2012.1
2011.4
2011.3
2011.2
2011.1
2010.4
2010.3
3.0
2010.2
0.0
2010.1
6.0
DC(2013.1@2.0)
DCresident(2013.1@1.7)
US(2013.1@3.2)
Table8.DCWagesand PersonalIncome:March2013
($billionatseasonallyadjustedannualratesunlessotherwisenoted)
Indicator
FY2009
F Y2010
FY2011
FY2012
4qua rter
m ov ing
a vera ge
La test
qua rter
(Mar.)
55.4 1
1.1 4
2.1
57.81
2.40
4 .3
60.0 5
2.2 4
3.9
61.32
1.27
2 .1
61.86
1.02
1 .7
62.44
1.20
2.0
Supplementstow ages&salaries
%chan ge
16.3 1
6.3
17.17
5 .3
17.9 0
4.2
18.20
1 .7
18.26
0 .6
18.45
1.5
5.3 8
6.0
5.63
4 .6
5.9 6
6.0
6.24
4 .6
6.45
6 .7
6.60
6.2
21.4 0
0.7 6
3.7
22.59
1.19
5 .6
23.8 4
1.2 5
5.5
24.61
0.78
3 .3
24.87
0.55
2 .3
25.05
0.43
1.7
30.1
2.4
31.8
5 .5
33.9
6.6
35.2
3 .8
35.5
2 .6
35.6
1.4
5.7 8
14.1
5.18
10 .4
5.4 7
5.6
5.70
4 .3
5.96
6 .6
5.99
5.9
4.6 2
9.1
5.22
13 .0
5.7 0
9.1
5.91
3 .8
6.02
3 .8
6.09
3.4
40.5 2
0.1 6
0.4
42.18
1.66
4 .1
45.0 3
2.8 5
6.8
46.77
1.74
3 .9
47.51
1.49
3 .2
47.72
1.03
2.2
3.5
3.6
1 .4
0 .4
5.6
4.0
3 .3
3 .1
3 .7
3 .7
2.8
3.2
0.57
1.79
1.6 2
0.7 5
1.38
0.16
1.11
0.12
1.16
0.05
39 .1
39.7
40 .1
40 .2
40.1
38.6
Totalvalueofsalesofsinglefamilyandcondo
units:June2011toJune2013
(%changefromprioryearin3mo.and12mo.
movingtotals)
The June 3-month moving total of single family home sales was
up 7.9% from a year earlier, and the average selling price was
12.7% higher.
June condominium sales were 23.3% above a year earlier as
measured by the 3-month moving total; the average selling price
was 3.6% higher.
40
The total value of all home sales in June was 23.8% more than a
year earlier as measured by the 3-month moving total.
20
30
10
Jun13
Mar13
Dec12
Sep12
Jun12
Mar12
10
Sep11
The May ratios of inventory to sales were 1.3 for single family
units and 1.4 condominiums (3-mo. moving average).
Dec11
Jun11
20
12monthmovingtotal(jun@21.4)
3monthmovingtotal(jun@23.8)
Table9.D.C.ResidentialRealEstateIndicators:June2013
Indicator
F Y2009
FY2010
FY 2011
FY2012
12momoving
totalor
3momoving
av erage total oraverage
Thismonth
Num berofsales(settledcontracts)
Singlefamily
1yearchange
%chan ge
3,2 59
2 37
7.8
4 ,084
825
25.3
3,800
284
7.0
3,563
237
6.2
3,8 35
2 49
6.9
1,140
83
7.9
410
24
6.2
Condo
1yearchange
%chan ge
2,5 90
2 06
7.4
2 ,884
294
11.4
2,469
415
1 4.4
2,784
315
12.8
3,2 82
6 05
22.6
1,062
201
23.3
380
64
20.3
Total
1yearchange
%chan ge
5,8 49
31
0.5
6 ,968
1 ,119
19.1
6,269
699
1 0.0
6,347
78
1.2
7,1 17
8 54
13.6
2,202
284
14.8
790
88
12.5
A veragepricesofunitstha tsold
Singlefamily( $)
1yearchange
%chan ge
5 97,2 69
70,0 98
10.5
538 ,395
58 ,874
9.9
601,026
62,631
1 1.6
630,109
29,083
4.8
686,3 82
67,9 95
11.0
736,943
83,194
12.7
794,105
143,896
22.1
Condo( $)
1yearchange
%chan ge
3 59,9 52
52,2 83
12.7
414 ,030
54 ,078
15.0
423,365
9,336
2.3
429,611
6,245
1.5
441,3 90
13,7 88
3.2
457,346
15,818
3.6
471,250
34,900
8.0
2,878.8
290.6
3,3 92.9
5 14.1
3 ,329 .2
63 .7
3,441.1
111.9
4,080.9
718.7
1,325.8
254.6
504.7
115.8
9.2
17.9
1.9
3.4
21.4
23.8
29.8
5.2
5.7
3.4
4.6
3 .3
4 .9
2.3
2.9
1.6
1.9
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.5
Totalvalueofallsales($million)
1yearchange
%chan ge
Ratio:active inve ntorytosale s
Singlefamily
Condo
FHFAexpandeddatahousingpriceindexfor
DCandtheUS:2004.1to2013.1
(%cha ngefromprioryr.i nthe12mo.movinga vg.)
25
15
2013.1
2012.2
2011.3
2010.4
2010.1
2009.2
2008.3
2007.4
2007.1
2006.2
2005.3
2004.4
2004.1
5
15
DC(2013.1@10.7)
US(2013.1@4.5)
FY2009
FY 2010
FY2011
12mo
3m o
moving total moving tota l
F Y2012
Thismonth
Sin glefamilyhomes
1yearchan ge
%chan ge
percen to fallsinglefamilysales
33 3
10 2
23.4
10.2
418
85
25.5
1 0.2
489
71
17 .0
12.9
4 58
31
6.3
12.9
604
150
3 3.0
15 .7
220
60
37 .5
19.3
96
40
71.4
23.4
C on dminiums
1yearchan ge
%chan ge
perc entofallco ndo min iumsales
62
1 5
19.5
2.4
89
27
43.5
3.1
87
2
2 .2
3.5
72
15
17.2
2.6
102
24
3 0.8
3 .1
33
8
32 .0
3.1
10
4
66.7
2.6
Source :MetropolitanRe gionalInform ationSystems(MRI S). Sale sareone sclose d(se ttled)duringpe riodshown.
FY2009
F Y2010
F Y2011
FY2012
2012.1
2012.2
2012.3
%changefromprioryearinvalueofindex
DC
7.5
1.4
1.6
8.0
8.1
7.0
US
10.2
2.8
4.8
0.9
0.2
2.9
Adde ndum:%changefromprioryearintheaveragepriceofsettledsalescontractsforsinglefamilyhomes
AverageDCsalesprice
10.5
9.9
11.6
4.8
14.3
5.4
2012.4
2013.1
10.1
3.4
14.9
5.3
11.0
6.4
7.1
18.5
5.8
Source:(1)FederalHousingFinancyAgency"ExpandeddataH PIIndex"(salesplusrefinancings).Thisindexisabroadmeasure
ofthemovementofsinglefamilyhouseprices.Itmeasuresaveragepricechangesinrepeatsalesorrefinancingsonthesameproperties.
Thisinformationisobtainedfromtransactionsw hosemortgageshavebeenpurchasedorsecuritizedbyFannieMaeorF reddieMac
sinceJanuary1975.ItisaugmentedbydataonmortgagesendorsedbyFH AandcountryrecorderdatalicensedfromDataQuickInformation
Systems.(2)AverageDCsalespriceistheaveragepriceofhousesthatsoldduringtheperiod(settledcontracts):seeTable9.Notseas.adj.
Inventory
1yearc hange
%ch ange
87,090
1,663
1.9
87,970
880
1.0
88,710
740
0.8
89 ,464
754
0.8
90,805
1,988
2.2
372
%c h
0.4
Oc cupiedu nits
1yearc hange
%ch ange
81,964
443
0.5
82,965
1,001
1.2
84,125
1,160
1.4
85 ,620
1 ,495
1.8
86,991
2,085
2.5
491
0.6
Vacan tu nits
1yearc hange
%ch ange
%o fin ventory
5,126
1,220
31.2
5.9
5,005
121
2.4
5.7
4,585
420
8.4
5.2
3 ,844
741
16.2
4.3
3,814
97
2.5
4.2
119
3.0
$1,342
0.1
$1,380
2.8
$1,422
3.0
$1 ,481
4.1
$1,490
2.5
$0
0.6
Indica tor
Sep.30 2012
a mount
1Qch
Source :Reis.I nclude sunitsincompetitive, privatesectorbuildingsw ith40orm ore units. Excludescondoconver sions.
For the quarter ending June, the vacancy rate for DC commercial office space fell to 9.3%.
(millionsquarefeet)
123.38
124
DCs vacancy rate in June was below the 13.4% rate for the
metropolitan area.
122
118
114
120
116
Table13.Comm ercialofficespaceinDC:June30,2013
(Inmillionsofsquarefee t,unlessnotedotherwise)
Sep.30
Indicator
2009
Inventory
1yearchange
% change
Sep.30
2010
Sep.30
2011
Sep.30
2012
lastqua rter(June2013)
Level
1Qch
%ch
127.45
131.95
133.50
133.99
136.03
3.86
4.49
1.56
0.48
2.05
0. 45
0.3
0. 81
0.7
3.1
3.5
1.2
0.4
1.5
114.45
119.94
121.89
121.52
123.38
0.99
5.49
1.95
0.36
1.72
% change
0.9
4.8
1.6
0.3
1.4
Leasedspace
116.25
121.35
123.06
122.82
124.42
0. 79
0.6
Underconstruction
1yearchange
5.75
4.85
2.14
3.60
2.42
0.27
2.74
0.33
2.39
0.35
0. 17
6.8
% change
45.8
62.7
12.7
13.5
12.9
% ofinventory
Va cant(nosublet)
4.5
11.20
1. 6
10.60
1.8
10.44
2.0
11.17
1.75
11.61
0. 34
2.9
% ofinventory
Va cant(wsublet)
8.8
13.00
8. 0
12.01
7.8
11.61
8.3
12.46
8.5
12.65
0. 36
2.8
1yearchan ge
%chfromo neyear
4.84
59.4
0.99
7.6
0.39
3.3
0.85
7.3
0.32
2.6
Occupiedspace
1yearchange
10.2
9.1
8.7
9.3
9.3
NorthernVirginia
13.5
13.4
13.5
15.2
15.8
0.3
0. 1
SuburbanMaryland
14.6
14.5
14.2
14.5
14.7
0.1
DCMetropolitanarea
12.6
12.2
12.1
13.1
13.4
0.1
A v er a g eeffec tive r en t
% chfr om pr ior y e a r
5 0.8 0
48. 65
4. 2
A v er a g ev a lueo f
im p ro v em en tsfor ten a nt s
48. 54
0 .2
47 .80
1 .5
47 .20
1 .3*
80 .00
85 .00
So u r c e:D e lta A sso c ia tes . R en tis f or fu ll ser vic e (in c lu d in g op e ra tin g e xp en se s a n d ta xes ),l ess
c o n c ess ion s ( fre e ren t, etc .). C la ss A is d ef in ed as b u ild in g s g r ea ter th a n 5 0 ,0 0 0 sq u a r e fee t a n d b u ilt
a fter 1 9 9 7 . * Per c en t ch an ge f ro m D ec em b er 31 , 2 0 1 2 .
Housing permits, office and apartment outlook, and value of property transfers
Office vacancy rate expected to fall slightly over the
next two years as new demand equals new supply
Valueofrealpropertytransfers(including
transfersofeconomicinterest):
May2011toMay2013
140
90
40
May13
Mar13
Jan13
Sep12
Nov12
Jul12
May12
Mar12
Jan12
Sep11
Nov11
(12monthmovingtotal)
Jul11
60
May11
10
5,000
(%changein3monthand12monthmovingtotals)
12monthmovingtotal(may@13.8)
3monthmovingtotal(may@2.3)
4,281
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
May13
Feb13
Nov12
May12
Aug12
Feb12
Nov11
May11
Aug11
Nov10
Aug10
May10
Feb11
Table15.HousingunitbuildingpermitsissuedinDC:May2013
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
499
191
27.7
986
487
97.6
2,459
1,473
149.4
4,091
1,632
66.4
Totalunits
changefrom1yearago
%changefrom1year
12month
3month
movingtotal movingtotal
4,281
335
8.5
Thismonth
680
68
11.1
777
35
4.3
Source:CensusBureau(permitsissuedduringperiod).
Table16.DeltaAssociatesoutlookforcommercialofficespaceinDCand
thesurroundingmetroarea:June2013toJune2015
Indicator
Total DC%oftotal
DC
NoVA
SubMD
136.0
9.3
189.2
15.8
94.0
14.7
419.3
13.4
32.4
EstimatednetactivitytoJune2015
newsupply(msf)
2.8
4.2
newdemand(msf)
2.8
3.7
1.2
1.3
8.2
7.8
34.1
35.9
14.4
13.3
InventoryJune2013
Inventory(msf)
vacancyrate(%)
EstimatedInventoryJune2015
vacancyrate(%)
9.1
15.7
Source:DeltaAssociatesmsf=millionsquarefeet
Table17DCmarketrateapartmentunits:2008to2017
CY
2 008
2 009
2 010
2 011
2 012
2 013est
2 014est
2 015est
2 016est
2 017est
Inventory
8 6,583
8 7,788
8 8,360
8 8,817
9 0,433
9 2,995
9 7,738
9 9,312
10 0,674
10 2,107
1yrch %vacant
1,965
4.8
1,205
6.1
572
5.5
457
4.7
1,616
4.3
2,562
3.7
4,743
4.3
1,574
4.3
1,362
4.3
1,433
4.4
Occupied
82,465
82,415
83,477
84,632
86,500
89,514
93,582
95,087
96,374
97,649
1yrch
1 ,181
50
1 ,062
1 ,155
1 ,868
3 ,014
4 ,068
1 ,505
1 ,287
1 ,275
Source:Reis,March2013.(seenoteintable12)
Allpropertytra nsfers($million)
changefromoneyearago($M)
%chan gefrom1yearag o
FY2009
FY 2010
FY 2011
FY 2012
5,591.2
5,936.1
51.5
7,789.1
2,197.9
39.3
10,059.5
2,270.4
29.1
9,494.3
565.3
5.6
12month
3m onth
movingtotal moving tota l
10,180.5
1,235.7
13.8
2,101.8
61.2
2.8
Thismonth
710.9
4.6
0.6
Note:r epr ese ntsvalue ofpr opertyoreconomicinte resttransfe rredasofdate de ednotedbytheRe corderofD ee ds.
Source :OCFO/ Re corderofDee dsandOCF O/ORA(calculate dfromtaxcollectionsanddepositsadjustedfortaxratechange s).
Hospitality
Hotel revenues continue to rise
In May the 3-month moving total for hotel room-days sold
was 2.1% more than a year earlier. The average room rate
rose 1.5%, leading to an 3.6% gain in room revenue.
15
April airline traffic into the DC area was down 0.7% from
a year earlier as measured by the 3-month moving total.
Reagan National Airport gained 7.6%.
10
5
May13
Mar13
Jan13
Nov12
Sep12
Jul12
May12
Mar12
Jan12
Nov11
Sep11
Jul11
May11
5
10
3mo.movingaverage(may@3.6)
12mo.movingaverage(may@2.4)
I nd icato r
FY 20 1 1
U n its
d ate
('M )
1y rc h
1y r% ch
m ay
7. 370
0. 248
3 .5
7.465
0.095
1 .3
7.618
0.153
2 .0
7.658
0.073
1.0
2.1 88
0.0 45
2.1
0 .716
0 .002
0.3
A v era g er oom ra t e
$
1y rc h
1y r% ch
m ay
199. 12
4. 05
2 .0
206. 60
7. 49
3 .8
203.61
2.99
1 .4
208 .02
2 .93
1.4
231.85
3.49
1.5
22 4.90
6.84
3.0
O cc upa nc y ra te
(av e rag e)
%
1y rc h
1y r% ch
m ay
73 .8
0 .7
0 .9
74 .2
0 .5
0 .6
75 .4
1 .2
1 .6
7 5.9
0.9
1.2
85.6
1.5
1.8
83.1
0.5
0.6
R oo m r evenu e
($M )
1y rc h
1y r% ch
m ay
1 ,467 .5
20 .5
1 .4
1 ,542 .3
74 .8
5 .1
1 ,551 .0
8 .7
0 .6
159 3.0
3 7.4
2.4
507.4
17.9
3.6
1 61.1
5.4
3.2
1y r% ch
1y r% ch
1y r% ch
1y r% ch
ap r
ap r
ap r
ap r
0 .5
1 .2
4 .6
2 .1
6 .2
0 .6
4 .2
3 .4
2 .8
2 .9
1 .0
0 .1
6.5
4.7
0.0
0.2
7.6
6.3
2.4
0.7
5.5
6.4
4.6
2.2
m ay
94 .4
2 .8
3 .1
98 .0
3 .6
3 .9
93 .5
4 .5
4 .6
10 1.4
7.3
7.7
28.5
10.2
55.5
10.7
8.0
291.6
m ay
15 .3
0 .3
2 .0
15 .3
0 .0
0 .1
15 .5
0 .2
1 .1
1 5.5
0.0
0.1
15.5
0.2
1.1
15.8
0.3
1.9
F ood a nd bev
m ay
37 .0
1 .2
3 .3
39 .3
2 .3
6 .2
42 .7
3 .3
8 .5
4 3.4
1.7
4.0
44.7
1.3
3.1
45.8
1.6
3.6
A rt sa nd enter ta in .
m ay
7 .0
0 .1
6 .8
0 .2
6 .9
0 .1
7.0
0.2
6.9
0.4
7.2
0.5
1 .5
2 .5
1 .5
2.7
5.5
6.5
18 .3
0 .5
3 .0
18 .6
0 .2
1 .3
18 .8
0 .3
1 .4
1 8.4
0.3
1.4
18.0
0.7
3.6
18.0
0.9
4.8
H ot el stay s
H otel r oom da ys so ld
A ir lin ep asseng er s
DC A
IAD
BWI
Tot a l
1y r% ch
R eta il
m ay
FY 20 1 0
FY 20 1 2
3mo n th
1 2m oto tal mo ving tota l
o rave rag e* o rave rag e* Th ism on th
* To talfo rh otelr oo m ss o ld, roo m rev enu e, an dC o nve ntio n Ce nte rtran s fe r
So u rce :Sm ith T rave lR ese arc h (ho teld ata );B LS(e m p loym e nt);A irpo rta uth o rities (a irlin ep as se ng ers );
O C FO / O TR (Co n ven tion Ce nte rTra n sfer).
10
US economy
Economic growth picked up in the March quarter
March was the 15th consecutive quarter of real GDP growth. The
1.8% annual rate of growth for the quarter was below average for
the post-recession recovery.
(%changefromthepreviousquarteratannualrates)
7
6
4
2
1
2013.1
2012.4
2012.3
2012.2
2012.1
2011.4
2011.3
Inflation picked up in June. The June CPI was 1.8% above a year
earlier (sa).
2011.2
2011.1
2010.4
2010.3
2010.2
2010.1
In June the S & P 500 index fell 1.3% from May, but was 22.3%
above last year.
Real(2013.1@1.8)
Nominal(2013.1@3.1)
Table20.USGDP,income,corporateprofits,andinflation:2013.1andMay2013
(percentchangefromsameperiodofprioryearunlessnoted)
Indicator
Dateoflatestindicator
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
12moavg
2013.1
May2013
USGDPreal
USGDPnominal
2013.1
2013.1
1yr%ch
1yr%ch
1.1
3.4
3.9
2.6
1.8
2.8
1.9
4.0
2.3
4.2
2.0
3.8
1.8
3.4
USPersonalincome
USwages
2013.1
2013.1
1yr%ch
1yr%ch
5.6
3.4
3.4
3.5
1.5
0.4
5.4
4.0
3.3
3.1
3.7
3.7
2.8
3.2
Corporateprofits
SandPstockindex
2013.1
may
1yr%ch
1yr%ch
11.2
5.7
12.2
34.3
35.9
23.7
9.1
13.8
8.4
5.4
na
13.7
na
15.7
22.3
may
may
1yr%ch
1yr%ch
4.4
5.0
0.3
0.3
1.7
1.7
2.7
3.0
2.4
2.4
1.7
1.8
1.7
na
1.4
1.2
USCPI
Balt//Wash.areaCPI
Source:BEA(datarevisedasofMay30,2013),BLS,andYahoofinance.na=notavailable
Personalincomeandwagedatamaydifferfromamountsshownintable8duetodifferencesinBEAsourcetables.
Table 21.Qu arterto q uarter chan gein US G D Pan d in com e:2011.3to 201 3.1
(p erc en tch ange fr om pr evio u squ art eratse ason allya dju sted ann u alr ates)
Indicator
units
201 1.3
2012 .2
2 012.3
2 012.4
2 013.1
USGD Pre al
USGD Pn om in al
1 .3
4 .3
4.1
4.2
2.0
4.2
1.3
2.8
3. 1
5. 9
0 .4
1 .3
1.8
3.1
W age sa nd salaries
P erso n alin com e
1 .3
1 .2
0.9
1.3
8.0
6.4
1.4
3.0
2. 3
2. 4
10 .0
10 .7
1.0
4.7
Jan
Feb
M ar
Apr
M ay
June
I ndicator
1422
2.0
14.4
1480
4.1
13.8
1512
2.2
11.8
15 51
2 .5
11 .6
157 1
1 .3
13 .3
164 0
4.4
22.3
1619
1.3
22.3
1.71
1.89
1.97
1.95
1.7 3
1.9 2
2.29
0.03
1.76
0.03
1.76
0.68
1.98
0.18
1.48
0.3 7
1.1 1
0.1 5
1.3 9
0.48
1.76
134.69
219
0.16
134.84
148
0.1 1
135.17
332
0.2 5
135.31
1 42
0.11
1 35.5 1
19 9
0.15
1 35.7 1
19 5
0.14
13 5.90
195
0.14
143.31
28
0.02
143.32
17
0.0 1
1 43.4 9
170
0.1 2
14 3.29
2 06
0.06
143.58
29 3
0.20
143.90
31 9
0.22
144.06
160
0.11
7.8
7.9
7.7
7 .6
7 .5
7.6
7.6
11
DC tax collections
Tota l DCta xcollections(beforeearmarking):
Ma y2008toMa y2013
(12monthmovingtotalin$million)
6,500
($million)
800
6,000
600
5,500
May13
Nov12
Aug12
May12
Nov11
Aug11
May11
sept2008(peakbeforerecession'simpact)@5,342may@
6,071
Feb13
Feb12
May13
Nov12
May12
Nov11
May11
Nov10
May10
Nov09
200
May09
4,500
Nov08
400
May08
5,000
may@490
Ta x
1 2 m onth
3month
moving total m oving tota l This month
FY2 00 9
FY2 0 10
F Y2 01 1
F Y2 01 2
To tal taxes
1y ear change
% chan ge
5,03 2.8
30 9.5
5.8
5,015.4
17.4
0.3
5,326.3
311.0
6 .2
5,80 6.1
47 9.8
9.0
6,07 1.1
48 9.7
8.8
2,074.6
86.8
4 .4
336.1
89.3
21.0
R ealp ro pert y
1y ear change
% chan ge
1,81 8.8
13 4.0
8.0
1,834.8
15.9
0.9
1,707.0
127.8
7 .0
1,81 6.4
10 9.5
6.4
1,85 5.7
8 7.8
5.0
949.7
30.0
3.3
2.4
34.8
93.7
G eneralsales
1y ear change
% chan ge
96 3.5
4 8.1
4.8
965.3
1.8
0.2
1,017.0
51.7
5 .4
1,08 4.6
6 7.6
6.6
1,12 0.2
5 4.8
5.1
286.1
4.4
1 .5
108.6
17.1
18.7
1,12 7.2
22 6.0
16.7
1,107.1
20.1
1.8
1,297.0
189.9
17 .2
1,47 9.0
18 2.0
1 4.0
1,63 6.4
22 7.9
16.2
447.3
44.7
11 .1
123.1
58.7
32.3
wi thho ldi ng
1y ear change
% chan ge
1,02 1.2
1 7.0
1.7
1,070.6
49.4
4.8
1,189.9
119.3
11 .1
1,31 1.9
12 2.0
1 0.3
1,37 9.6
10 8.9
8.6
359.7
16.9
4 .9
120.3
1.0
0.9
10 6.0
24 3.0
69.6
36.5
69.5
65.6
107.1
70.6
193 .3
16 7.1
6 0.0
5 6.0
25 6.9
11 9.0
86.3
87.6
27.8
46 .4
2.8
57.7
95.3
C or porate inco me
1y ear change
%ch ange
22 0.7
6 9.2
23.9
207.9
12.8
5.8
225.8
17.9
8 .6
31 1.2
8 5.4
3 7.8
32 5.3
5 6.7
21.1
111.2
4.1
3 .8
4.9
5.0
50.9
12 2.4
6.5
5.0
120.7
1.7
1.4
141.5
20.9
17 .3
15 9.3
1 7.7
1 2.5
15 8.1
6.5
4.0
67.8
0.6
0 .9
5.9
22.1
79.0
D eedt ax es*
1y ear change
% chan ge
18 7.4
13 5.8
42.0
225.6
38.2
20.4
314.1
88.5
39 .2
31 2.5
1.6
0.5
35 0.5
6 7.2
23.7
79.9
23.7
42 .2
30.4
4.4
17.1
O t her taxes
1y ear change
% chan ge
59 2.8
4 2.1
7.6
554.0
38.8
6.5
623.9
70.0
12 .6
64 3.2
1 9.2
3.1
62 4.8
1.9
0.3
132.5
20.7
13 .5
61.0
9.8
19.1
* De ed taxes in clu d ed eed reco rda tio n,d ee dtra n sfer, an de co n omicin tere stta xes on rea lpr op ertytra ns a ctio n s.
No te:(1 ) Inclu de sp ub licsp a ce ren tal(in oth erta xes ). (2)De ed taxco llection sw illva ryfromp a ymen tsto Reco rde rofD eed s
(g rap he do n the ne xtp a ge )d ue top ro cess ing a nd timin ge ffects .
(3 )D ata s ub jectto accou n ting ad ju stme nts .
(4 )T his ta ble an dth eg ra ph so n th en extp ag ein clud ea d jus tmen tsto th etimin ga n dco ns iste ncyo fco llection re po rting
in ten de dto ma keco mpa ris on sw ithp rio ryea rp erio ds mo remea n ing ful. Th ed ata ma ythe refore vary fro mo the rOCF Orep orts .
So u rce :OCFO/ ORA
12
DC tax collections
Growth has moderated in the sales tax and the
withholding portion of the individual income tax
DCTa xCol l ections(beforeearmarking):
Ma y2011toMa y2013
30
20
(%changein3monthand12monthmovingtotals)
In May the 3-month moving total for sales taxes was 1.5%
above last year and withholding was 4.9% higher.
10
May13
Mar13
Jan13
Nov12
Sep12
Jul12
May12
Mar12
Jan12
Nov11
Sep11
10
Jul11
May11
3monthmovingtotal(may@4.4)
12monthmovingtotal(may@8.8)
Salestaxcollections:May2011toMay2013
(%changefromprioryearin3monthand12month
movingtotals)
(%changefromprioryearin3monthand12month
movingtotals)
30
20
15
20
10
10
5
May13
Mar13
Jan13
Nov12
Sep12
Jul12
May12
Mar12
Jan12
Nov11
Sep11
Jul11
10
May11
May13
Mar13
Jan13
Nov12
Sep12
Jul12
May12
Mar12
Jan12
Nov11
Sep11
Jul11
May11
20
12monthmovingtotal(may@5.1)
12monthmovingtotal(may@8.6)
3monthmovingtotal(may@1.5)
3monthmovingtotal(may@4.9)
PaymentstoDCRecorderofDeedsforrecordation,
transfer,andeconomicinteresttaxes:
May2011toMay2013
CollectionsfortheGeneralSalestaxandIndividual
Incometaxwithholding:May2012toMay2013
(%changein3monthmovingtotals)
(%changein3monthand12monthmovingtotals)
20
10
12monthmovingtotal(may@20.4)
3monthmovingtotal(may@14.0)
Note:sourceisRecorderofDeeds,notTable23.
13
May13
Mar13
Jan13
Nov12
Sep12
Jul12
May12
Mar12
Jan12
Nov11
Sep11
Jul11
May-13
Apr-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Jan-13
Dec-12
Nov-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Aug-12
Jul-12
20
Jun-12
10
May-12
May11
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
20
40
60
30
US economic forecasts
The July Blue Chip Indicators reduced its outlook for FY 2013
The July Blue Chip Indicators reduced its FY 2013 forecast for real GDP growth to 1.6%, but kept its FY 2014 forecast at
2.5%. Since FY 2000, GDP growth has exceeded 2.5% in only 3 years: FY 2004, 2005, and 2006.
The July Blue Chip Indicators forecast for inflation (CPI): 1.6% in FY 2013 and 1.7% in FY 2014.
S and P 500: The range of June forecasts for the last quarter of 2013 compared to the last quarter of 2012: -1.0 to 14.4%.
Table24.ForecastsforUSnominalandrealGDP:
FY2012throughFY2014(% changefrompriorfiscalyear)
real
Forecastanddate
2012
BlueChip
April
May
June
July
(%changefromtheprioryear;July2013estimate)
nominal
2013
CongressionalBudgetOffice
January2012
2.1
August
2.0
February2013
2.3
Bl ueChipIndicatorsestimateofUSNominala nd
Rea lGDP:FY2007toFY2014
2014
2012
2013
2.1
3.7
3.9
4.2
2.6
2.0
3.1
1.2
0.4
1.5
2014
6
4
2
3.8
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
est
est
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.6
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
4.2
4.2
4.2
4.2
3.6
3.4
3.4
3.2
4.5
4.3
4.3
4.2
4
6
Real(2014@2.5)
Nominal(2014@4.3)
Sources:BlueChipIndicatorsandtheCongressionalBudgetOffice.
Table25. ForecastsforSandP500:2012.4to2014.4
SandP500stockindex actualandalternative
forecasts:2006.4to2014.4
(Juneforecasts;valueofindex)
(%changefrompriorfiscalyear)
1682
1700
1511
1300
1100
March
April
May
June
15.7
15.7
15.7
15.7
900
9.1
12.8
13.8
14.4
3.9
3.7
3.7
3.6
Economy.combaseline
March
April
May
June
2014.2
2013.3
2012.4
2012.1
2011.2
2010.3
2009.4
2009.1
2008.2
2007.3
2006.4
700
%changefromprioryear
2012.4
GlobalInsight:baseline
1515
1500
Forecast %changefromprioryear
date
2012.4 2013.4 2014.4
Actual
15.7
15.7
15.7
15.7
10.8
11.4
11.2
12.9
1.8
2.2
2.5
2.4
2013.4
2014.4
GlobalInsight:pessimistic
15.7
15.7
15.7
15.7
6.2
3.0
2.2
1.0
Economy.compessimistic
15.7
15.7
15.7
15.7
3.6
4.2
7.8
9.5
Source:IHSGlobalInsightandMoody'sEconomy.com.
Table26.BlueChipforecastsforCPIand10yearTreasuryinterest
rate:FY2012toFY2014
(%changefrompriorfiscalyear)
Forecast
date
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
CPI
2012
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2013
1.9
1.7
1.7
1.6
10yrTreasuryrate
2014
2.1
1.9
1.8
1.7
2012
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
2013
2.0
1.9
1.9
2.0
2014
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.7
Source:BlueChipIndicators
14
8.6
8.5
8.4
7.6
0.1
0.3
1.4
1.2
DC economic forecasts
June forecasts for DC by Global Insight and Economy.com lowered wage earnings
The biggest change in June is the reduction by Global Insight in its estimate of both wages earned in DC and
wages earned by DC residents FY 2013. Economy.com has more modest reductions in those items. Both, however, raised their estimates for wage and salary employment in DC in FY 2013.
Employment: The range of change in wage and salary employment for FY 2013 is 4,625 to 5,929; and for FY
Unemployment: . The unemployment rate forecast range for FY 2013 is from 8.5% to 8.6%. For FY 2014 the
Wages earned in DC: The range in growth from the prior year: -0.9% to 1.7% in FY 2013, picking up to 2.2% to
4.7% in FY 2014.
Wages earned by DC residents: The range in growth from the prior year: -5.8% to 1.2% in FY 2013, and 2.4% to
3.7% in FY 2014. Both forecasts anticipate that the growth in resident wages in FY 2013 and FY 2014 will be
lower than those for growth in wages earned in DC, a reversal of recent trends.
Table27.JobsinDC:forecastsforFY2012toFY2014
(amountofchangefromprioryear)
Dateof
estimate
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
GlobalInsight:baseline
2012
2013
12,467
6,659
6,659
6,659
GlobalInsight:pessimistic
2014
3,141
5,211
5,563
5,929
2012
9,523
8,683
8,382
8,681
2013
12,467
6,658
6,658
6,658
Economy.com:baseline
2014
1,936
4,443
5,083
5,671
2012
5,146
5,137
5,144
5,974
2013
6,658
6,658
6,658
6,658
Economy.com:pessimistic
2014
5,139
4,530
4,588
4,887
2012
5,393
5,105
4,718
4,663
2013
6,658
6,658
6,658
6,658
2014
4,160
3,566
4,361
4,625
151
509
245
668
Source:IHSGlobalInsightandMoody'sEconomy.com.
Table28.UnemploymentrateinDCFY2012toFY2014
Dateof
estimate
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
GlobalInsight:baseline
2012
2013
2014
9.3
9.3
9.3
9.3
8.6
8.6
8.5
8.5
GlobalInsight:pesssimistic
2013
2014
2012
8.5
8.5
8.4
8.4
9.3
9.3
9.3
9.3
8.7
8.7
8.6
8.6
Economy.com:baseline
2012
2013
2014
9.2
9.0
8.9
8.8
9.3
9.3
9.3
9.3
8.5
8.5
8.4
8.5
Economy.com:pessimistic
2012
2013
2014
8.4
8.3
8.3
8.3
9.3
9.3
9.3
9.3
8.8
8.7
8.5
8.6
9.9
9.8
9.9
9.9
Source:IHSGlobalInsightandMoody'sEconomy.com.
Table29.WagesearnedinDCFY2012toFY2014
(percentchangefromprioryear)
Dateof
estimate
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
GlobalInsight:baseline
2012
2013
2014
1.8
2.1
2.1
2.1
1.4
1.0
0.3
0.8
GlobalInsight:pessimistic
2012
2013
2014
4.5
4.4
4.8
3.5
1.8
2.1
2.1
2.1
1.0
0.7
0.1
0.9
Economy.com:baseline
2012
2013
2014
2.9
2.9
3.3
2.2
1.8
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.1
1.7
Economy.com:pessimistic
2012
2013
2014
5.6
5.6
5.5
4.7
1.8
2.1
2.1
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.0
1.6
4.0
3.9
4.0
3.2
Source:IHSGlobalInsightandMoody'sEconomy.com.
Table30.DCresidentwagesFY2012toFY2014
(percentchangefromprioryear)
Dateof
estimate
Mar
Apr
GlobalInsight:baseline
2012
2013
2014
GlobalInsight:pessimistic
2013
2014
2012
2.9
3.2
0.6
1.6
4.3
3.9
2.9
3.2
1.4
2.1
May
3.2
3.0
4.8
3.2
Jun
3.2
5.5
0.5
3.2
Economy.com:baseline
2012
2013
2014
Economy.com:pessimistic
2012
2013
2014
0.3
0.4
2.9
3.2
1.8
1.8
4.4
4.4
2.9
3.2
1.6
1.6
3.2
3.2
3.4
1.5
3.2
1.5
4.2
3.2
1.5
3.2
5.8
2.4
3.2
1.2
3.7
3.2
1.2
2.6
Note:EstimatedbyORA;assumeswageandsalarysupplementsarethesame%forDCresidentwagesasforwagesearnedinDC.
15
DC revenue estimate
The June revenue estimate adds to revenue growth in FY 2013 and FY 2014
Anticipated tax revenue growth of $187.4 million in FY 2013 and $159.2 million in FY 2014 (gains of 3.2% and 2.6%,
respectively) are significantly lower than that which occurred in FY 2012 ($537 and 10.1%). This reflects one-time
increases in FY 2012, slowing employment growth in DC, and allowances for the impact of a sequester or other cutbacks in
federal spending.
The individual income tax accounts for about 70% of growth in FY 2013, and real property accounts for 49% of the growth
in FY 2014.
As a share of DC Personal Income, tax collections in FY 2013 through FY 2015 are about the same as in FY 2012.
Table31.DCTaxRevenue(beforeearmarks)forFY2012throughFY2014:June2013revenueestimate
Tax
FYlevel($million)
Changefromprioryear($M)
%changefromprioryear
2012
Realproperty
Deedtaxes
Generalsales
2013
2014
2012
2013
2014
2012
2013
2014
1,822.0
1,889.8
1,967.5
106.9
67.8
77.7
6.2
3.7
4.1
306.6
305.4
317.1
4.5
1.3
11.7
1.5
0.4
3.8
1,111.0
1,155.5
1,190.1
96.1
44.4
34.7
9.5
4.0
3.0
Individualincome
1,490.7
1,621.6
1,642.1
194.1
130.9
20.5
15.0
8.8
1.3
Withholding
1,321.6
1,412.6
1,434.6
129.5
91.0
22.0
10.9
6.9
1.6
nonwithholding
169.1
209.0
207.4
64.6
39.9
1.5
61.9
23.6
0.7
Businessincome
465.9
469.7
476.6
106.2
3.8
6.8
29.5
0.8
1.5
Other
665.5
607.2
615.0
37.7
58.3
7.8
6.0
8.8
1.3
5,861.8
6,049.2
6,208.4
536.5
187.4
159.2
10.1
3.2
2.6
Total
Source:ORA.June24,2013revenueestimateunderexistinglegislation.Thetableincludestaxrevenueonly,beforeallearmarks,andexcludesall
nontaxrevenues,lottery,and"Otyoe"earmarkedrevenues.FY2012isfromtheFY2012CAFR
Table33. DCIncomeandstockmarketassumptions:
FY2012toFY2014(%changefromprioryear)
Table32.DClabormarketassumptions:FY2012toFY2014
item
Wageandsalary
employment
1yearchange
%change
DCresident
employment
1yearchange
%change
2012
2013
2014
730,025
6,658
0.9
734,531
4,506
0.6
733,901
631
0.1
323,512
11,396
3.7
340,451
16,940
5.2
341,156
705
0.2
9.3
8.6
9.5
Unemploymentrate
Source:ORAJune2013revenueestimate
item
Wagesandsalariesearnedin
DC
2012
2013
2014
2.1
0.0
1.4
Wagesandsalariesearned
byDCresidents
3.2
4.7
1.7
DCPersonalincome
3.8
4.2
2.3
15.7
2.8
4.7
SandP500stockindex
Table34.DCtaxrevenue(beforeearmarks)andDCPersonalIncome:FY2006to FY2015
item
2006
20 07
2008
2009
2010
201 1
2 012
2013est
2014est
2 015est
Taxrevenue($million)
Level
Changefromprioryear
Percentchangefromprio ryear
Taxrevenue
PersonalIncome
Taxrevenueaspercentof
PersonalInco me
4,51 6
26 7
5,155
638
5,325
170
5,052
273
5,005
47
5,3 25
3 20
5,862
537
6,049
187
6,208
159
6,3 82
1 74
6.3
8.2
14.1
8.1
3.3
9.6
5.1
0.4
0.9
4.1
6.4
6.8
10.1
3.8
3.2
4.2
2.6
2.3
2.8
3.3
1 3.3
14.0
13.2
12.5
1 1.9
11.8
12.5
12.4
12.5
12.4
Source:ORA.June2013r evenueestimateunderexistinglegislation.Thetableincludestaxrevenueonly,beforeallearmarks,andexcludesall
nontaxr evenues,lottery,and"Otype"earmarkedrevenues.
16
AlljobslocatedinDC
May12
730,100
Jun12
730,700
Jul12
727,500
Aug12
728,500
Sep12
734,100
Oct12
736,400
Nov12
733,400
Dec12
733,000
Jan13
734,700
Feb13
733,600
Mar13
734,300
Apr13
733,100
May13
733,800
Federalgovernment
Privatesector
208,600
486,900
208,100
487,900
208,400
486,400
208,400
488,600
208,200
491,600
207,300
494,300
206,800
491,700
206,300
491,700
206,400
493,200
206,100
492,300
205,500
494,100
204,900
494,200
203,000
496,500
Source:USBureauofLaborStatistics,May2013
Labor force dynamics. As noted earlier, resident employment grew by 31,355 between July 2011 and March
2013. Of the increase, about 20% is attributable to a fall in the unemployment rate (from 10.3% to 8.5%). The
remainder of the employment growth reflects a 7% increase in the Districts labor force.
One of the surprising things about the decline in resident employment in the past 2 months is that it is attributable entirely to a drop in the labor force. The fall of almost 1,000 in the labor force was great enough to offset
the modest boost to employment that otherwise would have been associated with the small decline in the unemployment rate (from 8.6% to 8.5%). The decline in the labor force could reflect the impact of persons unable
to find work leaving the labor forceso called discouraged workers. Over the longer term, however, sustained
increases in the working age population can be expected to result in an increase in the labor force, which in
turn would lead to higher resident employment if the unemployment rate doesnt rise. (Gains would be greater,
of course, if the unemployment rate also falls at the same time.)
It should be noted that an increase in resident employment does not necessarily require a net increase in wage
and salary employment located in the District of Columbia. District residents can take jobs now held by commuters as those commuters retire or move, and District residents can also work in jobs outside of DC.
Stephen Swaim, Office of Revenue Analysis
DClaborforce,unemploymentrate,andresidentemployment:May2012toMay2013
(seasonallyadjusted)
Laborforce
May12
359,301
Jun12
360,713
Jul12
362,211
Aug12
363,923
Sep12
365,952
Oct12
367,771
Nov12
369,320
Dec12
370,717
Jan13
372,240
Feb13
373,130
Mar13
373,138
Apr13
372,468
May13
372,142
Unemloymentrate(%)
Residentemployment
9.1
326,547
9.1
327,919
9.0
329,503
8.9
331,461
8.8
333,841
8.6
336,010
8.5
337,835
8.4
339,422
8.6
340,227
8.6
340,941
8.6
341,229
8.5
340,933
8.5
340,564
Source:USBureauofLaborStatistics,May2013
17
Sour ce
Periodcoveredinthisreport
Nextr elease
BLS
Ma y
19Jul
D.C.PersonalIncome
BEA
2013.1
September30
D.C.TaxCollections
OTR/ORA
Ma y
July15
D.C.HousingSa les
D.C.Comm ercialOfficeBuilding da ta
MRIS*
DeltaAssociates
June
2013.2
cAugust10
cOctober1
DCApartm entdata
Reis,inc
2013.1
cJuly31
D.C.Hotelstayinfor mation
SmithTravelResearch
Ma y
c.July30
ConsumerPriceIndex
BLS
June
Aug ust15
U.S .JobsandLaborF or ce
BLS
Ma yandJune
Aug ust2
BEA
2013.1
July31
S andP500StockIndex
Financialpress
June
Aug ust1
Interestrateon10Y ea rTreasurySecurities
Financialpress
June
Aug ust1
IHS GlobalInsightD.C.forecast
Gl obalInsight
June
c.July24
Econom y.com
June
c.July24
AspenPublishers
July
Aug ust10
For further information or to comment on this report, contact: Stephen Swaim (202-727-7775) or
stephen.swaim@dc.gov See also the Economic Indicators issued monthly by the D.C. Office of the Chief Financial Officer (www.cfo.dc.gov).
District of Columbia Economic and Revenue Trends is prepared by the Office of Revenue Analysis, which is
part of the Office of the Chief Financial Officer of the District of Columbia government.
Fitzroy Lee, Deputy Chief Financial Officer and Chief Economist
Office of Revenue Analysis
1101 4th St., SW, Suite W770
Washington D.C. 20024
202-727-7775
DC Economic and Revenue Trends: July 2013
18