Professional Documents
Culture Documents
01 August 2013
Contents
Introduction .................................................................................................................................3
Value ...........................................................................................................................................4
Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................4
RISK WARNING Ratings and Targets ....................................................................................4
How to use the report .................................................................................................................5
Under Valued .....................................................................6
Aerospace & Defence
Unde r V a lue d ......................................................................6
Chemicals
Telecommunication Services
Over Valued ................................................................................... 15
Transport
Under Valued ....................................................................................... 15
Utilities
DISCLAIMER ........................................................................................................................... 16
RISK WARNING ...................................................................................................................... 17
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01 August 2013
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Page 2 of 17
Introduction
The overriding purpose of this daily report is to provide users with a quick guide that will identify those
shares that merit their investment attention in an increasingly time critical and information noisy trading
environment.
The report is published daily and delivered to the subscribers personal email box, typically, before the
official open of the London Stock Markets.
Putting aside luck, Intellisys recognises that the timing and value of an investment are the two primary
drivers behind a successful portfolio performance.
Timing
Intellisys has invested considerably in identifying what it believes are the key factors that influence
investment timing. Having identified the key parameters, these have been established as rules that reflect
market dynamics and cut through the daily investment noise.
Through this discipline, Intellisys has removed the emotional and sentimental factors as well as the daily
pressures exerted upon primary stock promoters (analysts and traders) to find stories for their investment
meetings.
From an analysis of a years data for 40 stocks within Intellisys stock coverage, the trading indicators
appear to be, on average, about 77% accurate in identifying good trading points as well as some 74%
accurate for overall trend correlation.
The following chart provides an indication the accuracy scores for each of the 40 stocks analysed.
Individual Stock Rating & Trend Accuracy Scores
120.0%
120.0%
110.0%
110.0%
100.0%
100.0%
90.0%
90.0%
80.0%
80.0%
70.0%
70.0%
60.0%
60.0%
50.0%
50.0%
40.0%
40.0%
30.0%
30.0%
20.0%
20.0%
1
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40
Best Buy/Sell
Trend
Source: Intellisys
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Value
A similar discipline has been applied to the process of establishing Target Indications. On a daily basis,
Intellisys analyses as broad an array of historic data from not only the Consolidated Income Statement but
also the Balance Sheet and Cash Flow Statement and then utilises this data within its proprietary valuation
models.
Intellisys architect, Philip Morrish, has successfully applied these disciplines to his investment research for
the last 15+ years. Additionally, these investment valuation techniques lend themselves to accurate crossborder analysis.
The resultant Target is also discounted to a Net Present Value to make the Target as realistically valid as
possible.
Nevertheless, Intellisys recognises that Target Indication delivery is not only a function of market levels but
a management teams ability to establish and maintain a value generating operating environment set
against a constantly changing global background.
The typical investment analysts approach to determining target prices is to start with a modest range of
some 6 8 valuation measures and remove those that are not providing the intuitive result. Intellysis
approach is the opposite we use as many valuation methodologies as possible.
Further, Intellisys recognises that some target Indications may appear strange or extreme. However,
subscribers should not dismiss these outcomes but use them as starting points to challenge their
established or perceived valuation opinion of a stock.
In short, this disciplined approach provides an investment reality check to assist investors from falling in
love with a stock or becoming mesmerised by management cults.
Conclusion
No investment methodology is 100% successful and like all trading and investment systems active position
monitoring is critical for maximised investment performance.
Therefore, Intellisys recommends that its products should be used in conjunction with, and not separate
from subscribers existing investment systems as well as discussing investment options with their financial
advisers.
Philip Morrish (philip.morrish@intellisys.uk.com)
www.intellisys.uk.com
01 August 2013
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Page 4 of 17
Implied target
price based upon
49 valuation
metrics
Closing price
General Retail
Stock
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
BROWN (N) GROUP
BURBERRY GROUP
CARPETRIGHT
DIXONS RETAIL
FINDEL
FRENCH CONNECTN.GROUP
HALFORDS GROUP
JJB SPORTS SUSP - 24/09/12
JD SPORTS FASHION
DARTY
KINGFISHER
MARKS & SPENCER GROUP
MOSS BROTHERS GROUP
MOTHERCARE
NEXT
TED BAKER
TOPPS TILES
Company
Price
29.00
266.70
1136.00
675.00
21.16
6.36
23.50
324.70
0.40
731.00
57.25
269.80
377.90
55.00
212.00
3576.00
951.50
49.25
12M Lo
18.50
222.40
1000.00
375.00
9.36
2.20
19.50
189.00
0.24
570.00
38.00
237.20
302.70
31.25
127.30
2540.00
633.00
21.50
12M Hi
29.50
282.70
1586.00
728.50
21.69
6.55
82.00
342.30
17.00
863.00
110.60
313.80
389.50
55.00
227.00
3644.00
1017.00
51.75
ST Rec
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Sell
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
Neutral
LT Rec
Neutral
Buy
Sell
Sell
Strong Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Buy
Sell
Strong Buy
Strong Buy
Buy
Buy
Buy
Sell
Sell
Sell
Sell
Target
30
298
739
268
38
4
112
415
-62
1341
321
365
448
61
97
2798
542
29
Beta
0.72
0.52
1.30
0.97
1.56
0.94
1.05
0.67
0.88
0.47
1.28
0.97
0.74
1.04
0.44
0.72
0.56
1.31
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility or risk relative to its market. The market has a beta
of 1.0 and individual shares are attributed a beta according to how much they deviate from
the market. This can be summarised as:
eta <1.0
Share should move by less than market (i.e., less risk/lower reward)
eta =1.0
Share should move in line with the market (i.e., market neutral)
eta >1.0
Share should move by more than market (i.e., higher risk/higher reward)
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BAE SYSTEMS
445.90
300.80
445.90
Neutral
Buy
Target
611
Beta
0.68
CHEMRING GROUP
308.00
217.00
414.70
Neutral
Buy
364
0.66
COBHAM
287.60
190.10
293.40
Neutral
Neutral
301
0.83
MEGGITT
547.50
366.20
562.00
Neutral
Neutral
530
1.30
ROLLS-ROYCE HOLDINGS
1175.00
799.39
1240.00
Neutral
Neutral
1167
1.01
SMITHS GROUP
1385.00
1011.00
1396.00
Neutral
Sell
1167
0.77
1816.00
1424.00
1843.00
Neutral
Sell
1721
0.51
Unde r V a lue d
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GKN
350.10
201.00
350.10
Neutral
Neutral
342
1.96
INCHCAPE
570.50
353.30
577.50
Neutral
Neutral
608
1.42
LOOKERS
122.00
64.50
122.00
Neutral
Sell
106
1.23
27.50
13.50
28.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
42
1.11
PENDRAGON
Target
Over Valued
Banks
Stock
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
BARCLAYS
287.90
162.30
333.85
Neutral
Sell
-830
1.94
747.80
538.70
769.90
Neutral
Buy
891
1.16
68.47
29.39
70.03
Sell
Sell
1.86
317.60
204.50
367.80
Neutral
Sell
-137
1.37
STANDARD CHARTERED
1524.50
1228.50
1837.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3494
1.65
Under Valued
Beverages
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
541.00
415.00
588.50
Neutral
Sell
484
0.58
DIAGEO
2054.00
1672.50
2085.00
Neutral
Neutral
2205
0.53
SABMILLER
3220.50
2599.00
3657.00
Neutral
Buy
4313
0.93
BARR (AG)
Target
Beta
Under Valued
Chemicals
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALENT
367.50
305.00
397.50
Neutral
Buy
447
#NA
AZ ELECTRONIC MATS.(DI)
306.60
240.00
406.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
547
1.21
CARCLO
343.00
342.75
503.00
Neutral
Sell
142
0.76
2509.00
2164.00
2841.00
Neutral
Buy
3177
1.06
CRODA INTERNATIONAL
ELEMENTIS
Target
Beta
250.70
201.70
275.00
Neutral
Buy
307
1.04
JOHNSON MATTHEY
2835.00
2102.27
2836.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4255
1.44
VICTREX
1510.00
1239.00
1765.00
Neutral
Sell
1334
1.19
SYNTHOMER
196.70
139.10
225.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
392
1.11
ZOTEFOAMS
207.00
170.00
225.00
Neutral
Buy
294
0.99
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ALUMASC GROUP
115.50
62.00
118.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
Target
276
Beta
BALFOUR BEATTY
246.90
207.60
320.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1136
0.83
BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS
326.00
134.10
352.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
606
1.61
1.00
0.52
BELLWAY
1380.00
802.00
1455.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2847
2259.00
1387.00
2325.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3472
0.57
BOOT (HENRY)
188.50
117.00
201.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
363
0.76
1.11
799.50
452.00
851.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1430
CARILLION
298.10
244.80
331.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1535
1.10
CLARKE (T)
54.25
40.00
61.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
385
0.80
COSTAIN GROUP
CRH
GALLIFORD TRY
277.50
209.00
306.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1130
0.51
1381.00
1090.00
1540.00
Neutral
Sell
906
1.05
991.00
610.00
1019.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2938
0.95
KELLER
1109.00
443.75
1161.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2378
1.26
KIER GROUP
1484.00
1106.00
1486.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5316
0.94
67.25
50.00
76.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
224
1.05
1.32
152.75
77.00
152.75
Neutral
Buy
203
670.00
508.00
695.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4517
0.69
16.75
10.88
18.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
60
1.07
NORCROS
1236.00
580.72
1305.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1991
1.04
REDROW
PERSIMMON
245.00
126.00
253.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
453
0.89
SIG
181.80
93.05
183.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
526
1.72
45.50
43.00
287.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
4234
0.88
106.50
46.15
108.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
226
1.62
SUPERGLASS HOLDINGS
TAYLOR WIMPEY
TRAVIS PERKINS
1702.00
1005.00
1710.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4392
1.92
WOLSELEY
3146.00
2287.42
3483.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5980
1.37
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1101.00
999.50
1365.00
Neutral
Sell
1023
0.69
634.00
522.00
717.00
Neutral
Buy
859
1.16
E2V TECHNOLOGIES
132.50
105.50
137.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
267
1.27
INVENSYS
496.30
217.33
509.50
Neutral
Sell
268
1.36
LAIRD
193.00
171.10
249.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
432
2.12
OXFORD INSTRUMENTS
1425.00
1209.00
1752.00
Neutral
Sell
1260
1.11
RENISHAW
1570.00
1494.00
2081.00
Neutral
Buy
2008
1.30
SPECTRIS
2110.00
1506.00
2470.00
Neutral
Buy
2739
1.52
75.00
75.00
303.67
Neutral
Sell
-506
0.75
TT ELECTRONICS
170.25
114.00
178.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
419
1.61
XAAR
840.00
227.00
898.00
Neutral
Sell
409
1.09
DIALIGHT
BIOME TECHNOLOGIES
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Target
Beta
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Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
93.13
54.25
94.00
Neutral
Buy
136
1.18
BODYCOTE
619.50
323.70
619.50
Neutral
Neutral
613
1.58
CASTINGS
420.00
291.00
420.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
646
0.94
VESUVIUS
424.00
263.19
424.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1101
2.23
FENNER
345.40
305.90
435.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
532
1.46
HALMA
556.00
398.50
556.00
Sell
Sell
400
0.77
438.75
302.00
480.00
Neutral
Buy
516
1.36
1372.00
802.50
1400.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4706
1.40
305.50
220.30
305.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
532
1.87
2656.00
2157.00
3037.00
Neutral
Sell
1070
1.03
265.70
185.90
281.80
Neutral
Sell
236
1.66
0.75
IMI
MORGAN ADVANCED MATERIAL
ROTORK
SENIOR
SEVERFIELD-ROWEN
Target
Beta
56.25
35.40
80.16
Neutral
Sell
44
SPIRAX-SARCO
2865.00
1932.53
2928.35
Neutral
Sell
2051
0.84
VITEC GROUP
573.00
559.00
740.00
Neutral
Sell
457
1.41
WEIR GROUP
2149.00
1566.00
2474.00
Neutral
Neutral
2101
1.47
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GREGGS
432.80
398.00
523.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
789
0.43
MORRISON(WM)SPMKTS.
289.10
248.60
296.40
Neutral
Buy
394
0.36
SAINSBURY (J)
393.60
320.10
398.50
Neutral
Buy
479
0.54
TESCO
367.30
307.90
387.75
Neutral
Sell
198
0.66
83.00
23.25
100.50
Neutral
Sell
52
0.82
THORNTONS
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
ASSOCIATED BRIT.FOODS
1944.00
1267.00
2031.00
Neutral
Sell
1657
0.59
CRANSWICK
1150.00
732.50
1178.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1802
0.35
DAIRY CREST
510.00
332.90
510.00
Neutral
Sell
372
0.89
DEVRO
312.50
289.90
380.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
527
0.34
87.25
54.50
125.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
248
1.22
839.00
634.50
883.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1388
0.68
2669.00
2235.00
2885.00
Neutral
Sell
2241
0.52
PREMIER FOODS
TATE & LYLE
UNILEVER (UK)
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Under Valued
General Retail
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ASHLEY(LAURA) HOLDINGS
25.38
21.50
29.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
39
0.67
518.00
261.70
518.00
Sell
Sell
457
0.47
1530.00
1000.00
1541.00
Neutral
Sell
1232
1.27
660.00
585.00
701.50
Neutral
Sell
349
0.89
45.46
15.32
46.16
Neutral
Neutral
46
1.46
203.75
58.50
205.00
Neutral
Sell
56
1.05
32.50
19.50
34.00
Sell
Strong Buy
110
1.00
HALFORDS GROUP
368.70
203.50
405.20
Neutral
Buy
511
0.68
JD SPORTS FASHION
919.00
651.00
925.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1750
0.51
DARTY
Target
Beta
77.50
39.00
80.00
Neutral
Buy
110
1.19
KINGFISHER
397.50
262.20
397.50
Neutral
Buy
445
0.87
481.50
334.00
485.40
Neutral
Buy
638
0.61
60.75
44.75
71.00
Neutral
Buy
73
0.98
418.25
194.75
492.75
Neutral
Sell
153
0.38
NEXT
4990.00
3320.00
5020.00
Sell
Neutral
5354
0.59
TED BAKER
1905.00
880.00
1909.00
Neutral
Sell
969
0.54
87.25
43.25
89.00
Neutral
Sell
75
1.50
TOPPS TILES
Over Valued
Health
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BIOQUELL
134.00
129.50
160.00
Neutral
Sell
Target
112
0.39
CONSORT MEDICAL
793.00
660.50
839.00
Neutral
Sell
565
0.38
OPTOS
157.25
106.75
222.75
Neutral
Neutral
169
1.23
784.50
638.00
795.00
Neutral
Sell
664
0.44
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
GAMES WORKSHOP
789.50
587.50
791.50
Neutral
Neutral
773
0.38
HEADLAM GROUP
384.50
272.50
384.50
Neutral
Sell
326
0.89
80.50
55.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
111
0.71
HORNBY
Target
Over Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ARM HOLDINGS
875.00
528.00
1097.00
Neutral
Sell
277
0.70
CSR
569.00
308.10
607.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1522
1.12
FILTRONIC
IMAGINATION TECHNOLOGIES
Target
Beta
61.50
28.38
83.25
Neutral
Sell
52
0.94
235.10
235.10
624.00
Buy
Buy
310
1.09
SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS
132.10
118.00
170.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
237
0.94
WOLFSON MICROELECTRONICS
153.00
140.00
230.00
Neutral
Sell
-190
0.96
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Under Valued
Insurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1403.00
1019.00
1416.00
Neutral
Sell
-455
0.50
AMLIN
402.10
364.10
435.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1593
0.39
BEAZLEY
220.50
156.70
242.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
992
0.52
CATLIN GROUP
506.00
424.00
552.50
Neutral
Sell
470
0.22
HISCOX
650.00
452.39
650.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1983
0.41
893.50
723.00
917.00
Neutral
Buy
1281
0.33
125.00
107.70
136.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
753
0.39
NOVAE GROUP
484.50
345.00
507.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3560
0.41
ADMIRAL GROUP
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
2543.00
2092.00
2628.00
Neutral
Buy
3671
0.92
ENTERPRISE INNS
129.30
55.50
132.00
Neutral
Sell
117
1.62
TUI TRAVEL
382.20
182.00
382.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
746
0.96
940.75
700.50
958.00
Neutral
Sell
630
0.25
GREENE KING
875.00
556.50
886.00
Neutral
Sell
648
0.85
LADBROKES
213.00
154.70
243.10
Neutral
Buy
268
0.87
1907.00
1524.00
2039.00
Neutral
Sell
1690
1.12
CARNIVAL
ICTL.HTLS.GP.
MILLENNIUM & CPTH.HTLS.
552.00
456.00
582.50
Neutral
Neutral
601
1.37
416.30
261.80
426.80
Neutral
Sell
288
0.96
140.10
91.90
156.00
Neutral
Sell
65
1.23
13.00
6.00
13.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
77
1.18
160.50
116.00
177.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
580
0.97
0.70
PUNCH TAVERNS
RANK GROUP
RESTAURANT GROUP
529.50
315.50
557.50
Neutral
Sell
399
WETHERSPOON (JD)
711.00
447.90
767.00
Neutral
Neutral
714
0.56
WHITBREAD
3230.00
2067.00
3230.00
Neutral
Sell
2237
0.99
WILLIAM HILL
486.50
271.02
486.50
Neutral
Sell
263
0.79
MARSTON'S
155.40
109.70
164.50
Neutral
Sell
18
1.15
Under Valued
Life Assurance
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
AVIVA
371.50
285.20
388.40
Neutral
Sell
349
1.17
CHESNARA
258.25
163.00
270.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
506
0.67
192.90
126.60
192.90
Sell
Strong Buy
483
1.70
OLD MUTUAL
194.20
159.20
221.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
404
1.52
PRUDENTIAL
1167.00
746.00
1203.00
Neutral
Neutral
1187
1.66
618.00
336.20
640.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6778
0.82
ST.JAMES'S PLACE
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
01 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 10 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BLOOMSBURY PBL.
138.38
102.00
146.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
922
0.38
828.00
709.00
899.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1056
0.47
CENTAUR MEDIA
DAILY MAIL 'A'
EUROMONEY INSTL.INVESTOR
Target
Beta
41.00
30.38
60.00
Neutral
Sell
-42
1.02
806.50
451.25
818.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3556
1.07
1065.00
717.50
1105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5566
0.98
INFORMA
525.00
369.90
537.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
327
1.61
ITE GROUP
283.80
183.50
307.40
Neutral
Buy
201
1.49
ITV
168.60
76.10
168.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1369
1.44
1.22
JOHNSTON PRESS
16.25
5.20
19.00
Neutral
Buy
720
1350.00
1119.00
1350.00
Neutral
Neutral
309
0.60
93.50
38.75
95.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2283
0.87
286.50
265.00
290.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
732
0.12
35.00
26.85
36.45
Neutral
Strong Buy
346
0.51
STV GROUP
157.50
81.50
157.50
Neutral
Sell
240
0.82
ST.IVES
163.75
71.00
166.50
Neutral
Sell
159
1.48
TRINITY MIRROR
115.50
31.00
122.25
Neutral
Sell
-289
1.60
UBM
711.50
636.00
788.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1421
1.31
PEARSON
PHOTO-ME INTL.
PINEWOOD SHEPPERTON
THOMSON REUTERS
WILMINGTON GROUP
WPP
164.00
97.00
166.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1390
0.86
1184.00
788.00
1210.00
Neutral
Sell
-827
1.28
Under Valued
Mining
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
Target
Beta
1408.00
1207.00
2084.00
Neutral
Sell
1206
1.84
186.50
161.00
290.00
Neutral
Buy
206
1.07
ANTOFAGASTA
882.00
784.50
1381.00
Neutral
Sell
833
1.43
1879.00
1666.50
2236.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2891
1.49
GLENCORE XSTRATA
277.50
256.85
397.85
Neutral
Strong Buy
986
#NA
LONMIN
311.60
240.84
411.96
Sell
Buy
419
2.08
RANDGOLD RESOURCES
4770.00
3972.00
7775.00
Neutral
Sell
2827
0.42
RIO TINTO
2955.00
2582.00
3757.00
Neutral
Sell
2353
1.54
861.00
1335.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2700
2.25
ANGLO AMERICAN
BHP BILLITON
VEDANTA RESOURCES
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
1186.50
1000.50
1350.50
Neutral
Sell
886
0.86
BP
454.55
416.60
483.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1002
1.05
CAIRN ENERGY
269.20
251.80
309.40
Neutral
Sell
-23
1.35
7.70
7.15
12.50
Buy
Strong Buy
109
0.87
829.00
716.00
941.00
Neutral
Sell
568
1.37
63.50
48.50
96.00
Neutral
Sell
-58
1.43
BG GROUP
FORTUNE OIL
HUNTING
JKX OIL & GAS
PREMIER OIL
ROYAL DUTCH SHELL B
SOCO INTERNATIONAL
TULLOW OIL
WOOD GROUP (JOHN)
Beta
360.70
321.30
401.20
Neutral
Buy
403
1.47
2319.50
2098.00
2366.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
8188
0.86
367.70
319.90
404.30
Neutral
Buy
468
0.57
1038.00
977.00
1468.00
Neutral
Sell
692
1.08
901.50
720.50
906.50
Neutral
Sell
721
1.45
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
01 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 11 of 17
Over Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
MCBRIDE
129.38
101.00
144.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
260
0.79
PZ CUSSONS
393.60
297.20
415.60
Neutral
Sell
329
0.68
4679.00
3536.00
4950.00
Neutral
Neutral
4722
0.30
Target
Under Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
0.44
0.36
3.58
Buy
Sell
-3
0.89
3335.00
2792.50
3521.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
9054
0.49
BTG
379.70
300.30
397.90
Buy
Sell
214
0.73
DECHRA PHARMACEUTICALS
683.00
473.00
780.00
Neutral
Buy
924
0.20
1684.00
1317.50
1782.00
Neutral
Buy
1929
0.51
OXFORD BIOMEDICA
1.50
1.33
2.80
Buy
Sell
-2
0.60
1.33
1.05
12.75
Buy
Sell
-6
0.96
2402.00
1727.00
2414.00
Neutral
Sell
1535
0.66
SKYEPHARMA
74.50
43.50
100.50
Neutral
Buy
102
0.68
VERNALIS
22.38
19.38
27.38
Neutral
Sell
11
0.88
GLAXOSMITHKLINE
SHIRE
Target
Under Valued
Beta
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
435.00
300.00
440.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
654
1.15
BRITISH LAND
597.50
506.00
658.00
Neutral
Buy
767
1.05
2411.00
1890.00
2542.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4529
1.21
556.00
425.00
598.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1046
1.05
HAMMERSON
529.50
448.60
554.00
Neutral
Neutral
509
1.24
DERWENT LONDON
Target
Beta
INTU PROPERTIES
336.60
300.60
366.00
Neutral
Buy
503
1.12
949.00
761.50
994.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1614
1.14
25.88
24.25
40.75
Neutral
Sell
-142
0.87
LONDONMETRIC PROPERTY
113.50
103.20
121.40
Neutral
Sell
-3
0.30
MCKAY SECURITIES
147.50
131.50
155.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
251
0.66
400.00
325.00
437.50
Neutral
Sell
235
0.36
339.00
312.50
363.53
Neutral
Sell
97
0.30
0.64
41.50
26.11
43.25
Neutral
Sell
-345
SEGRO
REDEFINE INTL.REIT
310.80
221.60
310.80
Neutral
Sell
-240
1.80
SHAFTESBURY
632.00
516.00
668.00
Neutral
Buy
785
1.02
201.50
169.75
223.00
Neutral
Sell
17
1.03
0.98
0.70
2.52
Neutral
Sell
-921
0.96
451.60
245.00
454.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1157
0.98
WARNER ESTATE
WORKSPACE GROUP
www.intellisys.uk.com
01 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 12 of 17
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
360.90
210.50
360.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
764
35.00
22.75
37.50
Sell
Sell
-50
0.68
CLS HOLDINGS
1120.00
645.00
1120.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2977
0.72
DAEJAN HOLDINGS
4010.00
2706.00
4085.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
7147
0.42
200.25
136.00
209.00
Neutral
Neutral
193
0.92
DEVELOPMENT SECS.
Target
Beta
0.65
GRAINGER
174.00
90.95
174.00
Sell
Sell
114
1.54
HELICAL BAR
299.00
178.00
302.50
Neutral
Sell
200
0.77
25.00
20.25
29.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
231
0.65
5925.00
4150.00
5950.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
14698
0.72
87.75
49.25
90.50
Sell
Sell
-199
1.04
RAVEN RUSSIA
70.50
61.50
79.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
216
1.51
630.00
370.00
630.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2249
0.73
86.50
71.50
88.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
389
0.35
SAVILLS
SMART (J)
ST MODWEN PROPS.
316.10
174.00
329.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
622
1.57
UNITE GROUP
390.30
213.25
390.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
1667
1.78
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ANITE
128.50
113.00
162.00
Neutral
Neutral
126
0.73
2404.00
1776.97
2588.15
Neutral
Sell
1497
1.49
COMPUTACENTER
486.00
333.29
564.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1149
0.88
KOFAX
342.50
260.75
347.25
Neutral
Sell
304
1.07
AVEVA GROUP
INNOVATION GROUP
Target
Beta
29.00
18.50
29.50
Neutral
Sell
21
0.78
796.00
529.08
796.00
Neutral
Buy
915
0.80
PHOENIX IT GROUP
155.25
130.00
222.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
240
0.71
84.00
64.00
85.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
236
0.49
2005.00
1275.00
2137.00
Neutral
Neutral
2182
0.79
350.50
289.36
368.18
Neutral
Buy
439
0.71
RM
FIDESSA GROUP
SAGE GROUP
Under Valued
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
384.30
257.80
492.10
Neutral
Strong Buy
1237
1.12
BREWIN DOLPHIN
253.70
144.60
253.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
653
0.69
9150.00
8000.00
11105.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
95290
0.85
425.00
260.00
426.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1422
0.96
0.68
CAMELLIA
CHARLES STANLEY GROUP
CHARLES TAYLOR
Target
Beta
187.50
155.00
195.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1626
1045.00
743.00
1107.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4813
0.85
100.00
87.00
110.40
Neutral
Sell
68
0.88
4.18
0.55
4.57
Sell
Sell
-130
0.65
HENDERSON GROUP
HELPHIRE GROUP
164.10
97.60
180.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
818
1.44
ICAP
406.80
280.80
406.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
809
1.04
486.30
252.70
501.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2311
1.69
INVESTEC
439.30
358.40
513.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1693
1.56
1574.00
930.00
1590.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
6889
1.08
80.30
71.30
134.40
Neutral
Sell
-4913
1.39
RATHBONE BROTHERS
1670.00
1208.00
1691.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
5482
0.75
SCHRODERS
2455.00
1292.00
2560.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
8165
1.27
SCHRODERS NV
1919.00
1040.00
2000.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
10863
1.25
www.intellisys.uk.com
01 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 13 of 17
Under Valued
Support Services
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
ACAL
255.00
157.75
255.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
878
0.90
AGGREKO
1780.00
1557.00
2400.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4284
1.16
AMEC
1077.00
965.50
1172.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3394
1.10
706.00
250.30
730.00
Neutral
Buy
1021
1.65
1175.00
868.50
1209.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2686
0.48
597.00
358.00
604.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2412
0.80
1409.00
1009.00
1409.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2851
0.52
587.50
224.00
593.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1702
0.41
1043.00
713.00
1057.00
Neutral
Sell
210
0.53
ASHTEAD GROUP
BABCOCK INTL.
BRITISH POLYTHENE INDS.
BUNZL
UK MAIL GROUP
CAPITA
COMMUNISIS
Target
Beta
67.50
29.19
68.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
495
0.78
COMPASS GROUP
898.00
671.50
910.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2031
0.74
BERENDSEN
817.00
509.00
823.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
3454
1.04
DE LA RUE
988.50
891.50
1075.00
Neutral
Buy
1458
#NA
DIGNITY
1475.00
890.00
1568.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3129
0.22
DIPLOMA
575.00
418.00
627.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1564
0.97
ELECTROCOMP.
246.10
200.00
278.40
Neutral
Strong Buy
952
1.02
ESSENTRA PLC
774.00
500.00
774.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1423
1.14
G4S
224.90
207.50
313.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
909
0.54
HAYS
103.10
68.20
106.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
470
1.05
HOMESERVE
265.20
185.60
293.60
Neutral
Strong Buy
1001
0.91
INTERSERVE
509.50
319.00
519.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
3772
1.30
3025.00
2697.00
3453.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
4908
0.81
49.00
27.50
50.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
120
1.10
0.68
INTERTEK GROUP
JOHNSON SERVICE GROUP
MANAGEMENT CNSL.GP.
26.50
21.25
32.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
224
MENZIES (JOHN)
737.50
573.00
801.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1812
1.40
446.50
346.40
451.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
863
1.37
MITIE GROUP
271.00
248.00
300.80
Neutral
Strong Buy
1086
0.50
41.50
40.50
156.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
726
0.28
OFFICE2OFFICE
1091.00
670.50
1110.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2255
0.72
PREMIER FARNELL
PAYPOINT
226.90
165.50
236.30
Neutral
Strong Buy
741
1.40
REGUS
185.20
94.00
186.70
Neutral
Sell
56
1.40
98.00
70.75
100.70
Neutral
Strong Buy
275
1.29
REXAM
491.80
420.70
547.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
1823
0.86
RICARDO
435.00
340.00
435.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1716
0.87
ROBERT WALTERS
235.00
176.25
235.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1042
1.19
RPC GROUP
458.80
378.00
477.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
1566
0.79
RPS GROUP
225.90
195.50
274.20
Neutral
Strong Buy
1030
1.51
SERCO GROUP
627.00
535.00
683.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2432
0.60
SHANKS GROUP
88.00
73.00
98.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
277
1.50
RENTOKIL INITIAL
SPEEDY HIRE
TRIBAL GROUP
TRIFAST
VP
WYG
59.00
23.50
64.75
Neutral
Strong Buy
318
1.23
192.75
82.00
194.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
578
0.64
55.00
40.50
59.25
Neutral
Strong Buy
342
0.94
407.50
295.25
412.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
2367
0.80
90.50
42.00
91.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
635
0.82
Over Valued
Telecommunication Services
Stock
BT GROUP
CABLE & WIRELESS COMMS.
INMARSAT
KCOM GROUP
TELECOM PLUS
VODAFONE GROUP
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
340.70
212.50
344.00
Neutral
Buy
416
0.89
40.51
29.64
46.29
Neutral
Strong Buy
78
0.69
683.50
484.30
749.00
Neutral
Sell
243
0.57
83.20
68.25
88.50
Neutral
Buy
115
1.23
1319.00
801.00
1390.00
Neutral
Sell
785
0.03
197.50
154.45
199.90
Neutral
Sell
99
0.51
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
01 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 14 of 17
Over Valued
Transport
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
BBA AVIATION
300.00
178.00
300.00
Sell
Sell
233
1.25
432.50
350.00
452.00
Neutral
Buy
596
1.06
CLARKSON
1888.00
1150.00
1888.00
Neutral
Sell
1337
0.84
EASYJET
1412.00
530.00
1412.00
Neutral
Sell
866
0.74
FIRST GROUP
Target
Beta
99.95
92.00
212.39
Neutral
Strong Buy
283
0.91
FISHER(JAMES)& SONS
1046.00
615.00
1110.00
Neutral
Sell
787
0.75
GO-AHEAD GROUP
1582.00
1220.00
1595.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
2727
1.00
NATIONAL EXPRESS
254.20
164.50
254.80
Neutral
Neutral
249
1.40
NORTHGATE
390.00
199.75
390.00
Neutral
Strong Buy
639
1.33
STAGECOACH GROUP
334.70
265.90
335.90
Neutral
Buy
446
0.97
75.25
42.00
78.50
Neutral
Strong Buy
233
0.94
WINCANTON
Under Valued
Utilities
Stock
Price
12M Lo
12M Hi
ST Rec
LT Rec
CENTRICA
391.00
310.80
394.90
Neutral
Strong Buy
588
NATIONAL GRID
786.50
665.50
847.50
Neutral
Buy
1003
0.45
PENNON GROUP
695.50
598.00
768.00
Neutral
Sell
637
0.61
SSE
1575.00
1312.00
1676.00
Neutral
Buy
2299
0.41
SEVERN TRENT
1773.00
1513.00
2090.00
Neutral
Sell
1538
0.34
721.50
647.00
787.50
Neutral
Neutral
767
0.48
www.intellisys.uk.com
Target
Beta
0.50
01 August 2013
+44 20 3239 8994
Page 15 of 17
DISCLAIMER
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has prepared this report. Intellisys is the trading name of Intellisys
Intelligent Analysis Limited.
Intellisys is a provider of financial research reports that indicate the possible value of quoted company
shares. The information contained within any and all of Intellisys reports are designed to present an
objective assessment of the possible value or relative value of a company and/or an actuarial sector or
stock market index. Intellisys utilises as extensive as possible range of valuation tools and proprietary
systems to derive its outputs. The base data for the models are derived from sources believed to be
accurate but Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited does not warrant or guarantee the accuracy or reliability of
the source data or its models and proprietary systems. Subscribers, and casual readers, should not rely
upon the Intellisys research outputs when forming specific investment decisions but should seek advice
specific to their situation and investment requirements from a person authorized under the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000, before entering into any investment agreement.
Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited has used reasonable care and skill in compiling the content of this
report. No representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is given by any person as to the accuracy or
completeness or accuracy of the information and no responsibility or liability is accepted to the accuracy or
sufficiency of any of the information, for any errors, omissions or misstatements, negligent or otherwise. In
no event will Intellisys Intelligent Analysis Limited, Intellisys or any of its officers, employees or agents be
liable to any other party for any direct, indirect, special or other consequential damages arising from the use
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