Surrogate Modeling with Genetic Programming Applied to Satellite Communication and Ground Stations

Glen D. Rodriguez Universidad Nacional de Ingenieria CTIC/ Fac.Science/ Fac.Ind.&Syst.Eng Av. Tupac Amaru 210, Rimac Lima, Peru grodriguez@uni.edu.pe Ivan Velsquez Dane Cachi Universidad Nacional de Ingenieria CTIC Av. Tupac Amaru 210, Rimac Lima, Peru ivelasqueza@uni.pe dcachi@uni.edu.pe Dante Inga INICTEL-UNI Av. San Luis 1771, San Borja Lima, Peru dante.innar@gmail.com

AbstractIn satellite missions, there are many complex factors requiring complex software or hardware design; for example: orbital calculation, Doppler shift correction. In optimization and computer aided design, the use of surrogate models has been increasing lately. These models replace a complex calculation or simulation by a simpler one, with good approximation. Neural Networks, Support Vector Machines and DACE models have been used, but Genetic Programming is another way to create surrogate models and little research has been done about it. An advantage of using simpler models in small satellite missions, such as Cubesats, is that they are less demanding regarding circuits (both in money and in power consumption) and memory. If the approximation is good, the surrogate model could be enough. These savings could be multiplied by a factor of 20 or more if the surrogate models are applied into constellations of small satellites, with 20 or more individual satellites involved. In this paper, Genetic programming is compared against Neural Networks for creating surrogate models for orbital calculations and Doppler shift. The models are created by machine learning, that is, the method takes a set of experimental or calculated samples and it uses them to create a model that approximates those samples. Genetic Programming uses an evolutionary approach that evolves trees representing non-structured mathematical functions formed from a alphabet of basic operations (in this paper: constants, +, -, *, /, sin, cos, log, exp). The main metrics of success are the maximum absolute error, the MAE (medium absolute error) and RMSE (root mean square error) against a bigger set of validation samples.

calculate). The surrogate models are created with only a few data points (generally in the order of some hundreds) obtained by a numerical method or experimentally. The result is a compact model that approximates the multivariate input/output behavior of the original system. In the field of black box optimization, surrogate models has been extensively used to replace the calculation of a great amount of computationally expensive simulations (required for optimization with genetic algorithms, simulate annealing, particle swarm optimization, etc.) with a process consisting of three steps: first, the calculation of a smaller amount of computational expensive simulations (original model) in different places in the search space; second, the building of the surrogate model; third, the optimization proper by calculating a great amount of computationally cheap surrogate models [4, 9, 11, 13]. But the use of surrogate models in the aerospace field has been less explored, with some examples on optimization [7, 14, 17]. In satellite missions, there is many complex factors requiring complex software or hardware design; for example: orbital calculation, Doppler shift correction. Both problems normally require the running of a computer code implementing some version of the Simplified General Perturbations (SGP) models such as the SGP4 or SGP8 models. An advantage of using surrogate models in small satellite missions, such as Cubesats, is that they are less demanding regarding circuits (both in money and in power consumption) and memory. In the case of memory, there are more than 3000 lines of C++ source code for SGP4 model, and the compiled program occupies 46 kb of memory, according to the source code available at the Center for Space Standards & Innovation (CSSI) page [1]. If the approximation is good, the surrogate model could be enough. These savings could be multiplied by a factor of 50 into a constellation such as the QB50, which will be a constellation of 50 CubeSats from different countries [8]. Surrogate models can be created using methods like Design and Analysis of Computer Experiments (DACE, also known as Design of experiments, DOE, or Kriging methods) [4, 13] and artificial neural networks (ANN) [9, 11]. But recently, another method for the creation of surrogate models, called Symbolic Regression via Genetic Programming (SR via GP), has been studied and it compares favorably to ANNs 1

Table of Contents 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................1 2. REVIEW OF METHODS FOR CREATING SURROGATE MODELS ...........................................2 3. FORMULATION OF THE PROBLEMS AND DESIGN OF THE STUDY .........................................3 4. RESULTS AND ANALYSIS ...................................4 5. CONCLUSIONS ...................................................6 REFERENCES.........................................................6 BIOGRAPHY ..........................................................7 1. INTRODUCTION
A surrogate model is an approximate model or emulator that mimic the behavior of the original model as closely as possible but it is computationally cheaper (faster to
978-1-4577-0557-1/12/$26.00 2012 IEEE

[5, 10]. In this paper, we will compare SR via GP to ANNs in problems related to satellite missions: orbital calculation and Doppler shift calculation and discuss the feasibility of using surrogate models in these tasks. Section 2 of this paper presents a brief description of ANN and SR via GP. Section 3 describes the problems: orbital modeling and Doppler shift modeling, and their formulation. Section 4 shows the results, analyses and discusses them. Section 5 presents some conclusions.

Some of the aerospace-related applications of ANNs in the literature are the control of thrusters in a satellite with artificial neural networks [18] and prediction of satellite cloak bias [2]. Symbolic regression via Genetic Programming In statistics, regression analysis examines the unknown relation : Rm a R of a dependent variable y R to specified independent variables x Rm. Since is not known, the goal is to find a reasonably good approximation *. Traditionally, regression is a statistical technique used to predict the value of a variable which is dependent on one or more independent variables. The result of the regression process is a function *: Rm a R that relates the m independent variables (subsumed in the vector x to one dependent variable y *(x). The function * is the best estimator chosen from a set $\Psi$ of candidate functions. In most cases, like linear or nonlinear regression, the mathematical model of the candidate functions is not completely free. Instead, we pick a specific one from an array of parametric functions by finding the best values for the parameters [16]. Symbolic regression is one of the most general approaches to regression. It is not limited to determining the optimal values for the set of parameters of a certain array of functions. Instead, regression functions can be constructed by combining elements of a set of mathematical expressions, variables and constants. Genetic Programming (GP) can be defined as the set of all evolutionary algorithms that breed programs, algorithms, formulas and similar constructs. In Genetic Programming, usually some inputs or situations and corresponding output data samples are known or can be produced or simulated. The goal then is to find a construct that connects them as close as possible [16]. Genetic Programming became fully accepted mainly because of the work of Koza. He began to study SR via GP [6], a method for obtaining mathematical expressions that match given data samples. Symbolic regression via GP uses genomes purely based on tree data structures rather than string chromosomes as used in genetic algorithms. In those trees a node stands for a mathematical operation and its child nodes are the parameters of the operation. Leaf nodes then are terminal symbols like numbers or variables. Genetic Programming is one of the few techniques that are able to learn solutions of potentially unbound complexity. It can be considered as more general than genetic algorithms, because it makes fewer, more precise assumptions about the structure of possible solutions. Researchers such as Kordon [5] have already used SR via GP for building surrogate model of Dart Impact on in chemical process of films. He recognizes the advantages of low development efforts, modeling with no assumptions, etc. Rodriguez [10] has evaluated SR via GP versus ANNs, founding that the quality of the approximation of SR via GP in most cases is better than approximations with ANNs,

2. REVIEW OF METHODS FOR CREATING SURROGATE MODELS

Artificial Neural Networks A neural network is a program designed to work in a fashion resembling in a basic way how the central nervous system carries out a particular task or function of interest. The neural network uses a massive interconnection of simple computational units called "neurons" or "units of processing". Each neuron receives input from some other neurons, or perhaps from an external source. Each input has an associated weight wij, which can be modified so as to model synaptic learning. The neuron's characteristic can be expressed mathematically as a weighted sum of its inputs:

Outputi = f wij * Input j j

(1)

, where f is the activation function of the neuron and wij refers to the weight from neuron j to neuron i. The output of a neuron, in turn, can serve as input to other(s) neuron(s). The neurons are grouped in layers, and the ANN may consist of an input layer, one or several hidden layers and an output layer. Designing an ANN implies deciding the architecture (number of layers, number of neurons per layer, and the function f for each layer). After design, the next step is training the ANN, using some algorithm to calculate values for wij in a way that approximates the outputs of the last layer (output layer) for each set of input values to the corresponding target values. One of the applications of a neural network consists of using the data derived from any complex mathematical procedures, such as physics-based numerical simulation, to train a neural network. After proper training with many samples originated from simulations with different parameters, these neural models can be used in place of the physics-based model to speed up the calculation. The most common strategy for optimizing physical devices using neural networks consists of generating a neuromodel (ANN surrogate model) of the device within a certain search space of the design parameters, by training as mentioned before, and then applying conventional optimization to the neuromodel to find the optimal solution that yields the desired response [11]. 2

SR via GP has no guarantees at all, but experience says that with enough processing time, it generates good models, with low mean squared error; the models could be generated before a space mission, on the ground with a cluster of computers, and later the best model could be loaded into the satellite or spacecraft. In SR via GP it is very easy to give different weights to different samples, for example with nonlinearity weights as discussed by Vladislavleva [15] another option would be giving more weight to samples with small values for a minimization problem, in order to model better the space near minima. This last trick is hard to do with ANNs (duplicating samples could do it, but it would increase the ANNs training and computing).

(output data) are calculated using the software Predict for Linux, that uses the SPG4 model. Doppler shift problem The problem consists in approximating the Doppler shift of a LEO satellite0s radio link. The original data (input data for building the surrogate model) is shown in table 2. The output is the Doppler shift in kHz. These data was obtained by simulating 4 different passes of the ISS over our Ground Station in Lima, Peru (77.0394 O, 12.0812 S) with the software Orbitron with real TLE files. The total number of data points is 116. Table 2. Input for the Doppler shift problem Variable t1 m Description Actual time minus time when satellite is at max. elevation in this pass (in seconds) Max. elevation angle in this pass (degrees)

3. FORMULATION OF THE PROBLEMS AND DESIGN OF THE STUDY

Orbital problem The problem consists in approximating the longitude and latitude a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite. The original data (input data for building the surrogate model) is some of the data available in the Two Line Element (TLE) files (keplerian elements) plus the time after the TLE creation (epoch), as shown in table 1. The total amount of data points is 450 points. That covers 2 different pass for each one of these 3 satellites: SwissCube, BEESAT and Oscar 66 (CO-66). The reason this problem was chosen is discussed later, in subsection Significance of these problems Table 1. Input for the orbital problem Variable x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6 x7 x8 x9 x10 x11 Description Time after TLE time (in minutes) Epoch year Epoch (in days) First Time Derivative of the Mean Motion divided by two BStar drag term Inclination in degrees Right Ascension of the Ascending Node, in degrees Eccentricity Argument of Perigee, in degrees Mean anomaly in degrees Mean Motion, in revolutions/day

Significance of these problems These problems are not only of theoretical interest, for discerning the quality of the approximation of different surrogate modeling techniques. Getting a good quality solution of the orbital problem means that, in the case of satellites, we could embed a simple function instead of all the SGP4 code, which is slower to run, occupies more memory than a function and its computation expends more energy. For a cubesat or another small satellite, this saving is quite desirable, and would only require occasional upload of its TLE file. With a small program for parsing the file and a working surrogate model, plus an internal clock, the satellite is ready to know its position at any time without running the SGP4 code. Many cubesats do not implement an orbital simulator because CPU, memory or energy constraints. An awareness of its own position (even with some error) could help many functions of the cubesat, such as attitude determination, control, communication and power management. If we get a good approximation for the Doppler shift problem, together with a good solution of the Orbital problem, then we could embed both functions in small Ground Stations, such as the small autonomous stations proposed in [3] for pollution monitoring in remote locations, or the stations used in the ocean as part of the Pacific Tsunami Warning System (surface buoys of the DART II system). This kind of Ground Station must do Doppler shift correction, and would benefit from simpler, less expensive calculation or orbits and Doppler shift, because of energy savings and simpler embedded programs.

The desired approximation is to the longitude and latitude. The range of Longitude is [0, 360> degrees and of latitude is [-90, 90] degrees; the real values of longitude and latitude 3

Building Surrogate models with ANNs For each problem, 100 different surrogate models using ANNs are obtained, with different (random) initial conditions for training, and later the best model is chosen; the best model is the model with the largest coefficient of determination R2=1-(SSerr/SStot), where Serr is the sum of squares of residuals (residual=observed value- predicted value) and SStot is the total sum of squares of the difference between each observed value and the mean of all observed values. From the total of data points, 70% will be used for training, 30% for validation (to measure network generalization, avoiding overfitting, and to decide to halt training when generalization stops improving). Mean absolute error (MAE) and Root mean square error (RMSE) are calculated as additional criteria of comparison. A two-layer feed-forward network with sigmoid hidden neurons and linear output neurons, trained with LevenbergMarquardt backpropagation algorithm, is used. The tool employed is the Neural Network Fitting Tool of MATLAB. For the Orbital problem, there are 11 neurons in input layer, 12 in hidden layer and 1 in output layer. For the Doppler shift problem, there are 2 neurons in input layer, 8 in hidden layer and 1 in output layer. The number of neurons in the input at output layers corresponds to the amount of independent and dependent variables respectively. The number of neurons in the hidden layer was decided by trial and error .The architecture of the ANNs is depicted in fig.1.

Building Surrogate models with SR via GP The symbolic regression models for the test functions are calculated after 3x106 generations for the Orbital problem, and 6x106 generations for the Doppler shift problem. Eureqa software tool [12] is used, running in parallel on 2 cores of Intel Core 2 Duo P8600 (2.4 GHz, 3 Mb L2 cache) with 128 individuals in population (64 per core). From all the points of each problem, 70% of points are used for training, and the remaining 30% are used for validation. Only one surrogate model is created. The alphabet (operators available for nodes of the GP algorithm) chosen are numerical constants, +, -, *, /, exp(), log(), sin() and cos(). After getting a final surrogate model, R2, MAE and RMSE are calculated. For the Orbital problem, longitude sub-problem, instead of creating a surrogate model of this kind: Longitude=f(x1,x2,x3,x4,x5,x6,x7,x8,x9,x10,x11) (2)

It was decided that a better formulation would take into account that when the value of longitude of a LE orbit satellite get close to 360, then it moves forward and it wraps to 0. So the next surrogate model is desired: Longitude=mod(f(x1,x2,x3,x4,x5,x6,x7,x8,x9,x10,x11),360) (3) Because the latitude never wraps, the surrogate model for the Latitude sub-problem has the form: Latitude=f(x1,x2,x3,x4,x5,x6,x7,x8,x9,x10,x11) The form of the Doppler shift problem would be: Frequency=f(t1,m) (5) (4)

4. RESULTS AND ANALYSIS

Results for the Orbital problem Table 3 shows the R2, MAE and RMSE for the best ANN based surrogate model and the SR via GP based surrogate model for the Longitude sub-problem. Table 4 shows the R2, MAE and RMSE for the best ANN based surrogate model and the SR via GP based surrogate model for the Latitude sub-problem. The closer R2 is to 1, the better. The closer MAE and RMSE are to 0, the better. Table 3. Comparison of ANN and SR via GP for the Longitude sub-problem SR via GP Metric ANN based based 2 0.625814 0.774869 R MAE RMSE 47.470734 65.560777 31.272396 50.853105

Figure 1 Architecture of the ANNs used This problem in reality is divided into two sub-problems. The first is the creation of a surrogate model for the longitude, and the second is the creation of a model for the latitude. The input for both sub-problems is the same.

Table 4. Comparison of ANN and SR via GP for the Latitude sub-problem SR via GP Metric ANN based based 2 0.989715 0.992554 R MAE RMSE 3.950697 5.008614 3.353820 4.261708

The models obtained by SR via GP were:

Longitude = mod(34.960773cos(0.12730694x1 ) + 3.9341409x1 + 2.6054952x 9 + cos(2.6790264x 9 ) - 79.213753,360)

Figure 3 Error of the surrogate model (SR via GP) for latitude
Frequency = sin(-0.0227859t1 ) - 0.0800079 msin(0.0119546t1 ) - 0.0387232t1

(6)
Latitude = 13.156008sin(0.06332913x1 ) + 0.77197623x 7 sin(0.06602028x1 ) - 0.15606369x 7 cos(-0.18936811x1 ) - 33.996082 * sin(0.06602028x1 ) - 58.349678sin(0.06332913x1 - 0.078031845x 7 )

(8)

(7)

From the results, it is clear that, by now, longitude can not be calculated with a surrogate model with enough precision for real life applications. But the approximation of the latitude is better. The approximation versus the real data is shown in fig.2, errors are shown in fig.3; most errors are below 10 in absolute value, and in average less than 4 of absolute value of error. This surrogate model of latitude is good enough for many real life tasks: deciding the best angle to capture sunlight, checking the attitude sensors, etc. Results for the Doppler shift problem Table 5 shows the R2, MAE and RMSE for the best ANN based surrogate model and the SR via GP based surrogate model. The model obtained by SR via GP was:

The result of the best ANN model is better than the SR via GP model for the training dataset. The maximum error of the ANN is 0.0371 kHz, and of the SR via GP is 1.7784 kHz. Both are below the channel half-bandwidth of many single chips RF transceivers, such as the CC1000, which in our experience is around 2.5 kHz or 3 kHz. Table 5. Comparison of ANN and SR via GP for the Doppler shift problem (training set) SR via GP Metric ANN based based 0.999996 0.993183 R2 MAE RMSE 0.012879 0.015463 0.511493 0.660847

In order to do an additional check on these models, it was decided to generate data of 2 extra ISS passes in Orbitron, and using this new data set (39 points), we calculated R2, MAE and RMSE as shown in Table 6. There it can be seen that ANN model is still better, but the difference is smaller. Table 6. Comparison of ANN and SR via GP for the Doppler shift problem (extra data set) SR via GP Metric ANN based based 2 0.995460 0.985237 R MAE Figure 2 Real latitude (calculated by SPG4) in red vs. latitude from surrogate model (SR via GP) in blue RMSE 0.376913 0.496905 0.802090 0.896057

The maximum error for ANN model was 1.16 kHz and for SR via GP model was 2.008 kHz, still below the amount that would cause reception troubles. ANN is better, but it is more complex to implement than the equation 8 created by SR via GP (in this example, ANN surrogate model would require a total of 9 functions, 8 for the hidden layer and one for the output layer, while SR via GP surrogate model needs only 1 function). For small devices, the improvement on the accuracy of the approximation does not justify the additional complexity. More functions coded in software means less memory left for other functionalities; more function evaluations drain the batteries faster. But in this case, more precision in Doppler shift calculation only has the benefit of some additional seconds of contact between satellite and ground at the beginning and ending of line of sight contact, when both the shift and the error are greater, because at all time, for both ANN model and SR via GP model, the error is below the 2.5 kHz threshold. In the fig. 4 the SR via GP approximation versus the real data for both the training data set and the extra data set is shown. The error for both data sets is shown in fig.5. From this last figure, it can be concluded that most errors are below 2 kHz in absolute value, and in average the error is less than 1 kHz in absolute value. The application of this surrogate model in an autonomous ground station could operate with an adequate correction of Doppler shift without losing the radio link with the satellite. Even the idea of correcting the Doppler shift in the satellite instead of correcting it in the ground becomes feasible, as long as the satellite stores a different model for each ground station which is allowed to communicate with the satellite, because the shift can be calculated with enough accuracy using a simple function. If there are too many ground stations and therefore too many functions, it would occupy more memory, but then the solution would be to generate a greater surrogate model for many ground stations. This greater model would have 2 additional independent variables (latitude and longitude of the ground station) and it should have to be calculated based in training data for Doppler shift respect to each ground station. If we use enough training data (many points on ground, evenly distributed over the Earth) we could obtain an appropriate model for predicting Doppler shift on most points on the Earth surface.

Figure 4 Real latitude (calculated using Orbitron, that is, SPG4) in red vs. latitude from surrogate model (SR via GP) in blue

Figure 5 Error of the surrogate model (SR via GP) for Doppler shift The accuracy of the model for Longitude approximation is bad and not appropriate for use in satellite missions, but the latitude and Doppler shift approximations are good enough: in the first case, for deciding if the satellite is over polar, temperate or tropical zones (for example, the authors are involved in a cubesat with a near infrared camera with the goal of monitoring vegetation status, therefore it would be useless to take infrared pictures in polar regions); in the second case for doing the Doppler shift corrections in the range of tolerance of commercial radio frequency components. Most absolute errors on latitude were below 10, and in average below 4.5. Maximum absolute error for the surrogate model of Doppler shift with Genetic Programming is about 2 kHz, and the radio can tolerate a deviation of 2.5 kHz without loss of communication link. In the future, we intend to continue the exploration of the use of surrogate models on communications (for example, BER modeling) and to improve the approximation of the longitude.

5. CONCLUSIONS
In this paper, two applications of surrogate models in satellite missions (Orbital modeling and Doppler shift modeling) have been presented. The advantage of replacing computer code for orbital simulation (SPG4) with a simpler, faster model has been discussed.

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BIOGRAPHIES
Glen D. Rodriguez received a B.S. in System Engineering from Universidad Nacional de Ingeniera, Lima, Peru, in 1994, an M.E. in Information and Computer Science Engineering from Toyohashi University of Technology, Toyohashi, Japan in 2001, and a Dr.Eng. in Electronic and Information Engineering at Toyohashi University of Technology, Toyohashi, Japan in 2004. From 2006 he has been a lecturer and later a professor at Universidad Nacional de Ingeniera, Lima, Peru. From 2008 he has been involved in the cubesat project of this university, called Chasqui I, as responsible of the Ground Station. His research interests are evolutionary algorithms, parallel processing, mobile communication and electromagnetic waves propagation and scattering. Ivan Velsquez received a B.S. in System Engineering from Universidad Nacional de Ingeniera, Lima, Peru, in 2010. From 2009 he has been involved in a cubesat project of this university as software developer. His research has been focused on developing new software modules for Mercury GS and adapting the software to the Ground Station. Dane Cachi was born in Lima, Peru. He studied Physics and graduated as Physicist at the Universidad Nacional de Ingeniera (UNI) and received his Bachelor Degree in Physics in 1998. He worked from 1999 to 2010 at the laboratory of Optics and Photonics in optical wave guides and developing optoelectronics. He is Teaching Physics, Optics, Electromagnetism and Digital Electronics from 2003 to nowadays. He is finishing the Master Degree Program in Telecommunications at UNI. He is researcher from the Ground Station Module from the first Nanosatellite Project in Peru, called Chasqui I. He has presented papers at conference and seminars presenting his new communication system for the Peruvian nanosatellite developed at UNI.

Dante Inga received a B.S. in Electronics Engineering from Universidad Nacional de Ingeniera, Lima, Peru, in 2010. From 2009 up to middle of 2011 he has been involved in the cubesat project of this university as circuit designer. Actually he is working at INICTEL-UNI as telecommunications researcher. His research interests involve artificial intelligence, voice processing and communication equipment development.