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This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global economic growth, population growth, energy consumption, policy support for renewable energies and sources of energy supply. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or may occur in the future. Actual outcomes may differ depending on a variety of factors, including product supply, demand and pricing; political stability; general economic conditions; legal and regulatory developments; availability of new technologies; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this presentation.
Energy Outlook 2030
2 BP 2013
Contents
Page
Introduction
Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Implications Appendix
4 7 27 69 81
BP 2013
The Outlook describes a future that is different in several respects from what many expected just a short while ago. We still expect global energy demand to grow by 36% between 2011 and 2030 - driven by the emerging economies. Without continuous improvements in energy efficiency, demand would have to grow much more rapidly simply to sustain economic growth.
Supply patterns are shifting. The Outlook demonstrates how unconventional oil and gas are playing a major role in meeting global demand. Over the period to 2030, the US becomes nearly self-sufficient in energy, while China and India become increasingly import-dependent. This report illuminates some of the consequences. The implications are far-reaching. Indeed, I believe they will stretch far beyond the boundaries of our industry.
Energy Outlook 2030
4 BP 2013
As always, the numbers that make up this Outlook reveal long-term trends and highlight potential fault lines in the system; in short, their job is to convey the underlying challenges and opportunities we all face in producing and consuming energy. What messages do we draw from this Outlook? It underlines the power of competition and market forces in driving efficiency and innovation importantly not only in unlocking new supplies such as unconventional oil and gas but also in improving energy efficiency and consequently limiting the growth of carbon emissions.
A second message is the importance of technology and innovation, which underpin the key trends that are highlighted in the Outlook, from the development of shale resources to the efficiency of power generation and improved vehicle fuel economy.
Third, the Outlook highlights the way energy resources are opening up. The energy industry is highly competitive and investment will flow to the places that possess the right resources below ground and the right conditions above it. Highlighting the above ground factors that have made the US and Canada engines for energy innovation can be instructive for other nations seeking to develop their domestic energy resources. The overall conclusion is that increased demand can be met as long as competition is present to drive innovation, unlock resources and encourage efficiency. This is why we remain optimistic the world will produce the energy it needs to fuel continued economic growth. We hope you find the 2013 edition of the BP Energy Outlook 2030 a useful addition to the global energy discussion. Bob Dudley Group Chief Executive
Energy Outlook 2030
5 BP 2013
We focus on the most likely base case numbers, to provide a basis for discussion. Of course the future is uncertain, and in the process of building the Outlook we explore the impact of alternative assumptions. While we do touch on some of the key uncertainties, the treatment of energy market risks here is by no means exhaustive.
Unless noted otherwise, data definitions are based on the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, and historical energy data through 2011 is consistent with the 2012 edition of the Review. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expressed in real Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) terms. All data sources are listed on page 86.
Energy Outlook 2030
6 BP 2013
Page
Introduction
Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Implications Appendix
4 7 27 69 81
BP 2013
GDP
Trillion $2011
Primary energy
Billion toe
OECD Non-OECD
100
OECD Non-OECD
12
OECD Non-OECD
75
50
25
0 1990 2010
8
BP 2013
By primary use
Billion toe Billion toe
By fuel
18 15 12
18 15 12
Non-OECD Non-OECD OECD
18 15
Power generation Industry Other Renew.* Hydro Nuclear
12
9
6 3
9 6
9
6 3
OECD
3 0 2030 1990
0 1990
Transport
2010
2010
10
0 2030 1990
*Includes biofuels
2010
2030
BP 2013
11
BP 2013
RoW
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Other Transport -0.5 Industry Power
Nuclear
Renew. Electricity Gas Biofuels
Middle East
China & India OECD Other Transport Industry Power
Oil
Coal
-0.5
Inputs to power
12
Inputs to power
BP 2013
13
BP 2013
18
18 FSU
15
12 9 6 3 0 1990
Non-OECD Non-OECD OECD OECD
15
12 9 6 3 0 2030 1990
14
S&C America
N. America Middle East Europe Asia Pacific Africa
2000
2010
2020
2000
2010
2020
2030
BP 2013
15
BP 2013
Energy prices
10%
0% 1965
0 1965
1980
1995
2010
BP 2013
*Includes biofuels
Fossil fuel prices have risen to record levels in real terms over the past decade. Average annual real oil prices over the five years 2007-11 were 220% above the average for 1997-2001; for coal the increase was 141% and for gas 95%. These long run price movements inevitably lead to demand and supply responses.
Energy Outlook 2030
17 BP 2013
Trillion $2011
200
40
30
150
GDP (RHS) 50
EU*
0.0 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030
*Euro4 (France, Italy, Germany, UK) pre-1970 Energy Outlook 2030
18
19
BP 2013
Supply
2030 level
Renew.* Hydro Nuclear
OECD
NonOECD
2011
Oil
Natural gas
Coal
Nonfossil
20
BP 2013
21
BP 2013
Production in 2030
20
0 Asia Pacific
0.4
0.2 0.0
Asia Pacific
Africa
N. America
S. & C. America
N. America
S. & C. America
Africa
Middle East
Middle East
23
BP 2013
2010
Output (RHS)
0
Bakken
Energy Outlook 2030
24
0
Canada Colombia
BP 2013
25
BP 2013
26
BP 2013
Page
Introduction
Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Implications Appendix
4 7 27 69 81
27
BP 2013
60%
75%
40%
6% 50% 4% 2% 25%
20%
Coal Biofuels
1 Oil - road Oil - non-road 0 1990
2010
2030
30
1995
2005
2015
2025
BP 2013
Demand by sector
105 90
Other Middle East Other nonOECD Asia China US
105 90 75 60 45 30
Non-OECD transport
Non-OECD ind. & other OECD transport OECD ind. & other
75
60 45 30 15 0 1970
15
Other OECD
Power
1990
2010
2030
32
0 1970
1990
2010
2030
BP 2013
Demand in China grows by 7 Mb/d to 17 Mb/d in 2030, surpassing the US in 2029 (US demand falls by 2 Mb/d to 16.5 Mb/d over the outlook period). Other non-OECD Asia also shows strong growth of 6 Mb/d (of which almost two-thirds are in India). The Middle East is the next largest contributor to growth over the outlook period at 3.5 Mb/d.
Energy Outlook 2030
33 BP 2013
8%
6% 4%
NGLs
15
2% 0% 2030
BP 2013
2010
2020
35
BP 2013
25
6
3 0 -3 1990-00 2000-10 2010-20 2020-30
36
20
15 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
BP 2013
37
BP 2013
Supply
2030 level
95
90 85 80
2011
OECD declines
NonOECD growth
38
2011
OPEC growth
BP 2013
36
Tight oil
6 33
50% 3 25% 30
0% 2000-10
Energy Outlook 2030
2010-20
2020-30
40
0 2000
2010
2020
27 2030
BP 2013
While we believe that OPEC members will be able to maintain production discipline despite high levels of spare capacity, OPEC cohesion is a key oil market uncertainty, especially in the current decade.
41
BP 2013
Growth 2011-2030
Supply: Total liquids Other liquids 1 Non-refined NGLs Biofuels 16 Mb/d 0.5 4 2
75
Crude + Condensates
Crude supply
OECD
9.5
60
1 includes
2030
2 if
BP 2013
Existing spare capacity can accommodate some of the future growth in refinery throughputs. In addition, new capacity continues to be added at a fast pace with a net 5 Mb/d due to be added globally by 2015.
Around half of global liquids demand growth is in China and that countrys refinery expansion plans will affect product balances globally. A continuation of its stated strategy to be self-sufficient in refined products would severely curtail crude run increases for refiners outside of China.
43
BP 2013
60
300
40 200 100 0 1990 20 % of total (RHS)
12%
6%
2000
2010
2020
2030
44
0 1990
2000
2010
2020
0% 2030
BP 2013
45
BP 2013
N. America
EU
China
Net pipeline imports Net LNG imports Shale gas production
60 40
20 0 -20 1990 2010
46
2030
1990
2010
2030
BP 2013
47
BP 2013
Demand by sector
2000
2010
2020
2030
48
0 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
BP 2013
49
BP 2013
Supply
500
450
400 350 300 250 2011
Energy Outlook 2030
Other non-OECD
China Middle East Other OECD N. America
2030 level
OECD
Non-OECD
OECD
Non-OECD
50
2011
Non-shale
Shale
BP 2013
However, despite all the attention surrounding the shale gas revolution, in volume terms the bigger story is the expansion of mostly conventional production in the non-OECD (84 Bcf/d). The Middle East is the largest contributor with 31 Bcf/d, followed by Africa (15 Bcf/d) and Russia (11 Bcf/d). Overall, the growth of non-OECD gas production (104 Bcf/d) almost matches the growth of non-OECD consumption (110 Bcf/d). However, this match on the aggregate level masks growing regional imbalances which will support the expansion of gas trade.
51
BP 2013
LNG exports
Bcf/d 80 20%
60
40 20 0 -20 -40 -60
15%
40
Europe
10%
20
China RoW
LNG
5%
-80
2011
Energy Outlook 2030
2020
2030
52
0 1990
2000
2010
2020
0% 2030
BP 2013
Inter-regional pipeline trade grows by 3.0% p.a. to 2030, and like LNG trade, sees its share of consumption rising.
53
BP 2013
LNG infrastructure
140 Re-gas terminals Liquefaction plants
120
100 80 60
40
20 0 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
BP 2013
55
BP 2013
5
4
Oil
China China Industry China India India India Other Non-OECD Power Other non-OECD
2
1 0 1990
2 1 0 1990
OECD OECD
2000 2010 2020 2030
BP 2013
57
BP 2013
3
2 1 0 1990 Power Power
20%
10% 0% 2000 2010 2020 2030
58
1990
2010
2030
BP 2013
59
BP 2013
Non-OECD
Billion toe 2.0
1.5
1.0
Renewables in power
0.5 0.5
Biofuels
0.0 1990
2000 2010 2020 2030
60
0.0 1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
BP 2013
61
BP 2013
20%
15%
10%
Non-OECD 5% OECD 0% 2000 1970 2010 1980 2020 1990 2030 2000
62
OECD Europe
Other OECD
NonOECD
BP 2013
63
BP 2013
40 Renewables
30%
Industry 20% 10%
Gas Oil
0 1970
1990
2010
2030
BP 2013
100% Oil 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1970 Coal Nuclear Hydro Gas
67
BP 2013
68
BP 2013
Page
Introduction
Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Implications Appendix
4 7 27 69 81
69
BP 2013
S. & C. America
Africa
70
BP 2013
These countries sit atop just 16% of global proved reserves of oil and natural gas, yet they will account for 38% of global production in 2030, and will deliver one-third of the growth in global production.
71
BP 2013
75%
Range BP
50%
25%
40
20
0
2010
2020
2030
BP 2013
-200
-400 -600 -800 -1,000 -1,200 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 Oil Gas Coal
0
-20 -40 -60 -80 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
BP 2013
74
75
BP 2013
800
600
400
200
0 0 1990 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030 1990 2010 2030
2000
2010
2020
2030
BP 2013
76
77
BP 2013
6%
4% 2% 0%
1990-2010
2010-2030
Gas
Oil
1990
2010
-2%
China
EU
US
BP 2013
Conclusion
% p.a.
4%
3%
2%
new supplies
1%
Popul ation
0%
Economic growth Efficiency gains New supply
80
BP 2013
Page
Introduction
Global energy trends Outlook 2030: Fuel by fuel Implications Appendix
4 7 27 69 81
81
BP 2013
Biofuels
Biofuels
83
BP 2013
Gas
Liquids
2
1 0 IEA NPS EIA BP IEA CPS
84
1
0
IEA NPS
EIA
BP
IEA CPS
BP 2013
85
BP 2013
Data sources
Baker Hughes, Houston, Texas
BP p.l.c., BP Statistical Review of World Energy, London, United Kingdom, June 2012
BP p.l.c., BP Energy Outlook 2030, London, United Kingdom, January 2012 Center for International Comparisons of Production, Income and Prices at the University of Pennsylvania, Heston, A., Summers, R., Aten, B., Penn World Table Version 7.1, Nov 2012. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook , Washington, D.C., United States, 2012 GIIGNL, Paris, France International Council for Clean Transportation, Global passenger vehicle standards update. August 2012 International Energy Agency, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion, Paris, France, 2012 International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries, Paris, France, 2012 International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of OECD Countries, Paris, France, 2012 International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2012, Paris, France, 2012 Oxford Economics Ltd, Oxford, UK PIRA Energy Group, New York, NY, United States
Rhl C., Appleby P., Fennema J., Naumov A., Schaffer ME. (2012). Economic development and the demand for energy: a historical perspective on the next 20 years. Energy Policy, vol 50, pp. 109-116.
Smith Bits S.T.A.T.S. UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, New York, United States, 2011 US Environmental Protection Agency, Light-Duty Automotive Technology, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Fuel Economy Trends: 1975 Through 2011. March 2012 World Bank, World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheet), November 2012