Global Warming and Climate Change

SORAYA L. MEDITAR
Chief, Environmental Education and Information Section DENR-Environmental Management Bureau XII Prime Regional Center, Brgy. Carpenter Hill City of Koronadal

2013 School-based Science Quest and Camp Theme: Climate Change: A Call for Action Pablo Valencia National High School, Polomolok, South Cotabato July 26, 2013

A consensus

has emerged in our scientific community that global warming is no longer merely a theory but a reality, a crisis with truly global implications for planet Earth and all of us who share it. - Leonardo DiCaprio to
thousands at the New Jersey concert for Live Earth on July

7, 2007.

Pinagkaisahan ng pandaigdigang comunidad na pangagham na ang global warming ay hindi na lamang ng isang teorya kundi isang katotohanan, isang krisis na tunay sa pandaigdigang lawak at may mga implikasyon para sa planetang Earth at lahat na nakatira dito - Leonardo DiCaprio to thousands
at the New Jersey concert for Live
Earth on July 7, 2007.

Temperature anomalies from land weather stations, ships in the oceans, and satellite infrared measurements (orange=unusually warm; dark blue=unusually cool)

NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, NY, NY

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

ACCORDING TO THE UNITED NATIONS, VULNERABILITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE WILL BE GREATER IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, WHICH ARE LOCATED IN WARMER LATITUDES, LIKE THE PHILIPPINES.

PHILIPPINE VULNERABILITIES TO GLOBAL WARMING/ CLIMATE CHANGE

HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO TYPHOONS

LOCATED WITHIN PACIFIC TYPHOON BELT AREA

HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO LANDSLIDES, MUDSLIDES, ETC.

MOUNTAINOUS WITH STEEP SLOPES

HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODINGS AND INUNDATIONS

Archipelago, composed of low lying small islands 70% of cities and municipalities are coastal areas

Highly susceptible to flooding and storm surges

Low Agricultural Productivity

Rice production will largely be affected because of changes in temperature and rainfall. For every 1oC increase in temperature, rice yields will decrease by 10%-15% (IRRI). This will directly threaten food security.

HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO LOSS OF BIOLOGICAL RESOURCES

ACCORDING TO UN, 20%-30% OF PLANT AND ANIMAL SPECIES MAY BECOME EXTINCT AS A RESULT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO ILLNESSES

PHILIPPINES AS A TROPICAL COUNTRY

Water-borne and parasitic illnesses will become prevalent with climate change.

So, what is Climate Change?

Climate, Weather, Climate Change

Climate in contrast to weather is long-term pattern of occurrence of weather elements such as rainfall, dry season, temperatures
Climate change is alteration of the usual or normal long-term pattern

Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get.

Source: flickoff.org

Climate change is caused by: natural events (continental drift, Earths tilt on axis, ocean currents and volcanic eruptions) human (anthropogenic) activities

Greenhouse Effect

(-190C or 660F w/o GHG)

(+150C or 590F w/ GHG)

Source: www.environmentalsociety.ca/issues/climate/international-issues/html

The GHGs/ The Human-based Sources of GHGs

Human activities that lead to the increase in concentration of greenhouse gases include: worldwide deforestation,

increasing industrial activity,

motor vehicle emission, waste management practices and intensive use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides.

The GHGs/ The Human-based Sources of GHGs

So are the greenhouse gases really increasing?

During the pre-industrial revolution, levels of Carbon dioxide (C02) concentration in the atmosphere was 280 parts per million (ppm) by volume.

The GHGs/ The Human-based Sources of GHGs

By the end of 2005, levels had increased to 379 ppm. Carbon dioxide (C02) is the most prevalent GHG accounting for 60% of the enhanced greenhouse effect or global warming. Sources: It is produced by burning of oil, coal and natural gas, land use and land use change including steel, cement and lime production.

The GHGs/ The Human-based Sources of GHGs

Methane (CH4) concentration in the atmosphere had also increased from pre-industrial value of 715 parts per billion by volume (ppb) to 1,774 ppb in 2005.
CH4 is the second most common GHG which is 21 times the potency of carbon dioxide Responsible for 20% of the enhanced greenhouse effect More than half of the emissions are from human activities

The GHGs/ The Human-based of GHGs

Sources of methane (CH4): process of decomposition in flooded rice fields wastes from dairy production and waste management systems like: landfills leaks from coal mining natural gas production

The GHGs/ The Anthropogenic Sources of GHGs

Nitrous oxide (N20) concentratio in the atmosphere has increased from a pre-industrial value of 270 ppb to 319 ppb in 2005.
It is responsible for 20% of the enhanced greenhouse effect

Sources : intensive agriculture including cultivated soils and nitrogen fertilizer and pesticide use, biomass burning combustion processes in vehicles, automobile exhausts Industrial activities

The GHGs/ The Anthropogenic Sources of GHGs

Other three (3) man-made GHGs which were initially intended to replace chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) to prevent further depletion of the ozone layer. However, they were found to be harmful greenhouse gases.

Hyrdrofluorocarbons (HFCs) Perfluorocarbons (PFCs) Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) HFCs and PFCs are long-lived and potent and are used as refrigerants, coolants, foam-blowing agents and solvents. SF6 are also long-lived and are used in electric insulators, heat conductors and freezing agents.

Philippine Climate Trends and Projections

What are the manifestations/signals of global warming in the country?

From 1960-2003, there are already significant trends of increasing number of hot days and warm nights, but decreasing number of cold days and cool nights. Both maximum and minimum temperatures are generally getting warmer. An increase of 0.62oC from 1951 to 2006 has been observed. Extreme Rainfall Intensity (1951 2008) In most parts of the country, the intensity of rainfall is increasing with Baguio, Tacloban and Iloilo showing statistically significant increases. Frequency of Extreme Daily Rainfall (1951 2008) Most parts of the country are generally increasing. Calapan, Laoag, Iloilo and Tacloban show statistically a significant increasing trend, while a significantly decreasing trend is found in Palawan.

Philippine Climate Change Projections: 2020 and 2050

Changes in Annual Mean Temperature

This shows the changes in mean annual temperature by region relative to the baseline period of 1970- 2000. The countrys average annual mean temperature is projected to increase by 0.9C to 1.1C for 2020 and 1.9C 2.2C by 2050. Higher temperatures are generally expected for all regions of the country by 2050. Warming will be worst in Mindanao.

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Changes in Annual Mean Rainfall

The PRECIS simulation exercise projects a change in annual precipitation from -0.5 to 17.4% in 2020 and -2.4 to 16.4% in 2050. Increases in rainfall are particularly evident in most areas of Luzon and Visayas, while Mindanao is projected to undergo a drying trend. Average rainfall of Luzon and Visayas is expected to be 2 to 17% by 2020 and 1 to 16% by 2050. In contrast, there is a general reduction in regional annual average rainfall in Mindanao (~0.5 to 11% by 2020; 2 to 11% in 2050).
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Sea Level Rise

Sea level rise will increase the risk of flooding and storm damage. Projected impacts of 1 meter sea level rise in many areas of the country show vast portions being inundated, affecting coastal settlements and livelihood.
According to estimates of the National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA), a 1 meter sea level rise can translate to an estimated land loss of 129,114 hectares.

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Typhoon Sendong
Source: 2012, Punongbayan, R. Mainstreaming DRR/CCA into CLUPs

Other extreme weather/climate events like intense rains have been seen to be more frequent.

Adverse Effects of Climate-Related Disasters , 1998-2012

1998

2001

2003

2004

2006

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

TOTAL

Casualties

303

236

64

995

947

618

929

31

1,490

1,067

6,680

Disasters and Assistance to Affected Persons

What should we do?

We must adapt.

Defining adaptation
Adjustments in human and natural systems, in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, that moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities.
Global climate change: change in mean global temperature, changes in regional temperature, rainfall,

pressure, circulation, etc.

Mitigation: reduce emissions, reducing magnitude of CC Adaptation: reduce vulnerabilit y to CC impacts, reduce losses
Source: UNDP

Greenhouse gas emissions

Climate change impacts

Adaptation and mitigation are complementary strategies

Adaptation Measures

Water Sector
Expanded rainwater harvesting water storage and conservation techniques water re-use desalination; water-use and irrigation efficiency

Biodiversity/Forestry Sector

Maintaining and restoring native ecosystems Protecting and enhancing ecosystem services Managing habitats for endangered species Creating refuges and buffer zones Establishing networks of terrestrial, freshwater and marine protected areas that take into account projected changes in climate.

Source: UNEP, Convention on Biological Diversity. Biodiversity and Climate Change

Energy
Strengthening of overhead transmission and distribution infrastructure energy efficiency; use of renewable sources; reduced dependence on single sources of energy

Agriculture
Adjustment of planting dates and crop variety; crop relocation; improved land management, e.g. erosion control and soil protection through tree planting

Coastal Areas
Relocate residents living along low lying areas
Set up marine reserve networks to replenish coral/fish larvae Mangrove reforestation to serve as buffer for strong waves and storm surge

Health Sector
Sanitary practices Preventive care(e.g., vaccines) Information and awareness Health surveillance and monitoring

Disaster Risk Reduction

Life boats for floods

Panic room added in a house in Provident Village, Marikina after Ondoy

Mitigation Measures

Mitigation measures and strategies

Energy and Transport: Renewable energy (solar, wind, biomass, tide, hydro, etc) Energy efficiency, conservation, more efficient lighting, appliances and equipment Alternative fuels, improved cook stoves Public transport, traffic mgt Waste Solid waste and wastewater mgt Methane capture Land use, Land use change and forestry Reforestation, afforestation Urban land use planning Agriculture Agricultural residue mgt

Some mitigation measures that can be adopted to address climate change:

Accelerate use of renewable energy sources hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bio-energy) More efficient lighting, appliances and equipment Improve cook stoves Promote production efficiency and use low carbon technologies in the industry Reduce, reuse, recycle wastes

The ABCs of Climate Change

Act Now. Buy energy efficient appliances: Make informed choices. Calculate your personal carbon footprint and cut your GHG emissions. Debate, discuss and distribute leaflets, brochures and posters on climate change and environmental health issues. Enjoy the sun! Fridge doorsdont leave open longer than necessary Go green! Half your emissions by moving your aircon thermostat. Involve your family, friends, children and neighbors! Join an environmental group. Kick start an environmental campaign in your neighborhood. Lamps: replace with CFLs. Minimize the use of toxic chemicals. Network with specialized agencies, nonprofit organizations and engaged communities.

Off! Turn off televisions, videos, stereos and computers when not in use. Plant trees. Quit plastic bags. Carry your own bag with you when going shopping. Recycle, repair and reuse materials. Save paper. Print on both sides of the paper. Travel smart: reduce air travel. Use less energy, and conserve more of it! Do not waste water. Value wastes! Do not dump your home wastes everywhere. Segregate. Write letters about the health impacts of climate change to the local newspapers. Xpress your concerns on environmental health issues and solutions and stay informed. Your president, prime minister, parliamentarian or local leader needs to know about the impacts of climate change on health. Zoom in reducing emissions: It is the best way forward!

Source: Fact Sheet 6, World Health Day, 7 April 2008, World Health Organization

Look at these pictures, what is common among these important people?

Mother Teresa Nelson Mandela The 14th Dalai Lama Barack H. Obama Albert Arnold (Al) Gore Jr. Rajendra Kumar Pachauri chairperson of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
They were all awarded the Nobel Peace Prizes. Mother Teresa in 1979 Nelson Mandela in 1993 Dalai Lama in 1989 Pres. Obama in 2009 Al Gore and IPCC both were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007

Creeping Climate Change

Video clip downloaded from http://www.climatechangecommission.gov.ph

Thank you.