U.S.
Data
March is the Cruelest Month
Some say that March is the cruelest
month. Just when you think Spring is
around the corner you get whacked back
into winter. That sentiment could easily
describe March 2009. With a string of
positive news coming out since early
March, the latest retail sales growth
figures reminds everyone that retailers are
still struggling.
Since early March, the stock markets have
been gaining steam. In addition, reports of
improved corporate profitability have
lifted spirits that a turn around is coming.
Some consumers have been able to take
advantage of mortgage refinancing
options thereby freeing up some spending
dollars. In addition, the Consumer
Confidence Index has stabilized, albeit at
a low point. However, the continued job
losses, the fear of job losses, and the
association with people who have lost
their jobs continued to drag down
consumer buying sentiment.
All Stores fell by -10.6% in March.
Excluding automotive produced a better
result but All Stores Less Motor Vehicles,
Parts Dealers, and Gasoline Stations fell
by -3.0%. Consumers spent over $40
billion less in March and approximately
$110 billion less in the first quarter of
2009.
Some of the disappointing retail sales
growth numbers are partially due to a later
350 West Hubbard St. Ste. 240, Chicago, Il. 60654 Tel: (312) 673-1254 Fax: (312) 822-9162 Website: www.jcwg.com
For more information, please contact Jim Okamura at (312) 673-1254, John Archer (416) 921-4181, or e-mail info@jcwg.com
Advance March 2009 Retail Sales i Released April 14, 2009
Easter and the fact that there were five declines of -10.0%. For the year-to-date,
weekends in March 2008 compared to the latter category was down by only -
2009. This may explain the negative 5.5%. This may be explained by the
growth in Grocery Stores (-2.1%). closure of Circuit City outlets.
However, we must also take into
consideration that March 2008 was a Department Stores were just able to tread
relatively disappointing sales growth above the double-digit loss threshold by
month compared to 2007, leading to low falling -9.6%. March is critical to Spring
comparables. and summer fashions and slow sales at
both Department Stores and Clothing and
Almost all retail store categories’ growth Accessories Stores (-8.7%) mean that
numbers were lower in March 2009 retailers’ profits are going to be squeezed
compared to their year-to-date further as they will have to discount again
counterparts. Notable exceptions being in order to move merchandise.
Health and Personal Care Stores, which
maintained positive growth of 3.5% vs. While March retail sales growth ended up
2.2% year-to-date. In addition, Building being more disappointing than other
Material and Garden Equipment Stores economic news, looking forward into
fell by only -7.6% vs. -11.6% year-to- April and the second quarter, we will be
date. While still in the negative growth looking closely for more rays of sunshine
area of the chart, it perhaps indicates a and hope. The trends are pointing to
change in sales activity. The same may be positive effects and increasing consumer
said for Non-store Retailers as on-line sentiment that translates into cash
sales pick up. registers ringing that old familiar tune.
Furniture and Home Furnishings Stores Release Date of the Next
dropped the most in March losing -13.0%. National Retail Bulletin:
May 13, 2009
Surprisingly, Electronics and Appliance
Stores also witnessed double-digit
Please note:
The J.C. Williams Group National Retail Bulletin compares the latest monthly release of “raw” (i.e.,
unadjusted for seasonality, holiday, and trading day) retail sales figures to those in the same calendar
month of the previous year. The U.S. Census Bureau also reports seasonally adjusted sales that are
compared to the previous month within the current calendar year to measure change in Gross Domestic
Product (GDP). Although other sources use seasonally adjusted figures, J.C. Williams Group believes
that using raw figures and making comparisons to the previous year’s performance more accurately
reflects the seasonality of the retail industry, and therefore, are more useful in analysis. Definitions can
be found on the U.S. Census Website: www.census.gov.
 NATIONAL RETAIL BULLETIN Release Date: 4/14/09

Retail Sales by Store Category

Sales for the Month of March 2009 2008 2009/2008
All Stores 338,716 378,755 -10.6%
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 60,099 78,183 -23.1%
Gasoline Stations 27,115 41,281 -34.3%
Food and Beverage Stores 47,673 48,557 -1.8%
Grocery Stores 42,888 43,824 -2.1%
Health and Personal Care Stores 21,504 20,779 3.5%
Building Material and Garden Equipment Stores 23,741 25,703 -7.6%
General Merchandise Stores 46,841 47,929 -2.3%
Department Stores (excluding leased departments) 14,407 15,938 -9.6%
Clothing and Accessories Stores 16,541 18,119 -8.7%
Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics and Appliance Stores 15,747 17,795 -11.5%
Furniture and Home Furnishing Stores 7,951 9,136 -13.0%
Electronics and Appliance Stores 7,796 8,659 -10.0%
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores 6,449 6,649 -3.0%
Miscellaneous Store Retailers 8,972 9,224 -2.7%
Nonstore Retailers 25,060 26,017 -3.7%
Food Services and Drinking Places 38,974 38,519 1.2%

Year to Date Sales Ending March 2009 2008 2009/2008

All Stores 966,116 1,074,582 -10.1%
Motor Vehicle and Parts Dealers 165,215 215,263 -23.2%
Gasoline Stations 76,454 115,984 -34.1%
Food and Beverage Stores 140,814 140,889 -0.1%
Grocery Stores 127,060 127,637 -0.5%
Health and Personal Care Stores 62,399 61,076 2.2%
Building Material and Garden Equipment Stores 61,313 69,392 -11.6%
General Merchandise Stores 133,847 134,186 -0.3%
Department Stores (excluding leased departments) 40,277 43,840 -8.1%
Clothing and Accessories Stores 45,569 48,706 -6.4%
Furniture, Home Furnishings, Electronics and Appliance Stores 47,989 53,164 -9.7%
Furniture and Home Furnishing Stores 23,094 26,816 -13.9%
Electronics and Appliance Stores 24,895 26,348 -5.5%
Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book and Music Stores 19,367 19,722 -1.8%
Miscellaneous Store Retailers 26,010 27,502 -5.4%
Nonstore Retailers 75,848 79,616 -4.7%
Food Services and Drinking Places 111,291 109,082 2.0%

Source: US Census Bureau. All Values are expressed in millions of US dollars and are not seasonally adjusted

350 West Hubbard St. Ste 240, Chicago, Il. 60610 Tel: (312) 673-1254 Fax: (312) 822-9162 Website: www.jcwg.com
For more info, please contact Jim Okamura at (312) 673-1254, John Archer at (416) 921-4181, or e-mail info@jcwg.com
 NATIONAL RETAIL BULLETIN Release Date: 4/14/09

U.S. Consumer
Confidence Index
120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20
Jun-04

Dec-04

Jun-05

Dec-05

Jun-06

Dec-06

Jun-07

Dec-07

Jun-08

Dec-08
Sep-04

Sep-05

Sep-06

Sep-07

Sep-08
Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09
Source: U.S. Conference Board

U.S. Monthly Retail Sales by Major Category

Percentage Change from Same Month, Previous Year
Auto Food & Drug GAFO
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
-20%
-25%
-30%
-35%
Mar-07

Oct-07

Nov-07

Oct-08

Nov-08
Jun-07

Jan-08

Mar-08

Jun-08

Jan-09
Jul-07

Jul-08
May-07

Dec-07

Feb-08

May-08

Dec-08

Feb-09
Apr-07

Aug-07

Sep-07

Apr-08

Aug-08

Sep-08

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

350 West Hubbard St. Ste 240, Chicago, Il. 60610 Tel: (312) 673-1254 Fax: (312) 822-9162 Website: www.jcwg.com
For more info, please contact Jim Okamura at (312) 673-1254, John Archer at (416) 921-4181, or e-mail info@jcwg.com