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Objective
To relate the concept of probability to the

distribution of sample means.

The Distribution of Sample Means

Psych 110 Day 9

Outline
1. Samples and Populations

1. Samples & Populations

2. The Distribution of Sample Means 3. Probability and the Distribution of Sample Means

Samples & Populations

Probabilities for single-score samples vs.

2. The Distribution of Sample Means

probabilities for samples with n>1

The sample mean, rather than a single score,

is used to answer questions about the population.

Sampling error
The natural discrepancy, or amount of error,

between a sample statistic and its corresponding population parameter.

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Some definitions
The distribution of sample means
The collection of sample means for all the possible

The Central Limit Theorem

For any population with mean and standard deviation , the distribution of sample means for sample size n will have a mean of and a standard deviation of /n and will approach a normal distribution as n approaches infinity.

random samples of a particular size (n) that can be obtained from a population.

Sampling distribution
A distribution of statistics obtained by selecting all

the possible samples of a specific size from a population. Ex: Distribution of sample means

What does the CLT tell us about the distribution of sample means?
1. SHAPE The distribution of sample means will be normal if either one of the following two conditions is satisfied:
a) The population from which the samples are

What does the CLT tell us about the distribution of sample means?
2. CENTRAL TENDENCY The mean of the distribution of sample means will be identical to the mean of the population from which the samples are selected.
The mean of the distribution of sample

selected is normal.
b) The size of the samples is relatively large

means is called the expected value of M.

(around n=30 or more).

What does the CLT tell us about the distribution of sample means?
3. VARIABILITY The standard deviation of the distribution of sample means is called the standard error of M and is defined by the formula

The standard error

Factors that affect the SE 1. Sample size
The Law of Large Numbers the larger the sample

M =
Standard error measures the standard distance between a sample mean (M) and the population mean ().

size (n), the more probable it is that the sample mean will be close to the population mean.

2. Population standard deviation

The pop. standard deviation as the starting point

for standard error.

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The standard error

The SE provides a method for defining and

3. Probability and the Distribution of Sample Means

measuring sampling error; i.e., knowing the SE gives researchers a good indication of how accurately their sample data represent the populations they are studying.
Standard error defines the relationship

between sample size and the accuracy with which M represents .

How do we find the probability associated with sample means?

The primary use of the distribution of sample
By transforming sample means to z-scores.

means is to find the probability associated with any specific sample.

Because the distribution of sample means

z=
Ex: A random sample of n=25 scores is selected from a normal population with =90 and =10. a) What is the probability that the sample mean will have a value greater than 94? b) What is the probability that the sample mean will have a value less than 91?

presents the entire set of all possible Ms, we can use proportions of this distribution to determine probabilities.

Exercise
The population of NSAT scores forms a normal distribution with a mean of =500 and a standard deviation of =100. if the average NSAT score is calculated for a sample of n=25 students. a) What is the probability that the sample M will be greater than M=510? b) What is the probability that the sample M will be less than M=510? c) What is the probability that the sample M will be between M=510 and M=520?

Reminders
1. Psych 110 First Exam Schedule 15 July 2012, Wednesday, 8am-10am College Conference Hall 2. Due tomorrow: (a) index card with formulas, (b) unit normal table, (c) yellow papers. Staple them together; your name should be written in all three materials. 3. Review questions already available at Yahoo group.